2006 NBA Betting Odds

November 5, 2008

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This is the third installment of our continuing series on NBA teams and situational analysis in order to beat the NBA betting odds. As noted in the first two parts of the series, we pay close attention to situational factors when handicapping the NBA. In fact, it is the quintessential component of our NBA handicapping methodology.

In this week’s report, we break down the Cleveland Cavaliers. Lebron James and Company epitomize a dynamic we see often with talented young teams in the NBA. That is, they thrive in front of their home fans but are unable to breakthrough with any sort of meaningful success on the road.

The Cavs are actually a robust 21-6 SU and 16-11 ATS at Gund Arena. Away from Gund, however, CLE is just 10-18 SU and 12-15-1 ATS. Their road mark on the surface might seem like an improvement. After all, the Cavs are only two wins shy of matching last year’s output of 12-29 SU when away. But a closer look reveals Cleveland has a long ways to go in the hostile environs of other teams’ arenas, especially in terms of beating the NBA betting odds.

Consider that the Cavaliers are a back breaking 2-9 ATS when visiting teams with a winning record. Contrast that dismalness with the Cavs impressive 9-3 ATS mark hosting teams with a winning record. From those numbers alone it is pretty easy to glean just how important playing in their own building is to the Cavalier’s success.

To expand upon this point further, note that nine of Cleveland’s ten road wins have come vs. teams who shouldered a losing record at the time. This includes two wins at the woeful 10-45 (SU) Atlanta Hawks and two more wins at the equally woeful 11-42 (SU) Charlotte Bobcats. Their other road win in the East came at 29-28 (SU) Boston, who only recently climbed above the .500 mark. Free Basketball Picks

Interestingly enough, Cleveland’s other five wins came against Western Conference foes. But there is an enormous caveat to consider and that is who those five Western foes were. Three of these wins came against the 16-39 (SU) Golden State Warriors, 22-32 (SU) Portland Trailblazers and 19-37 (SU) Utah Jazz. In all three contests, CLE was actually priced as a road favorite in terms of the NBA betting odds. Aside from New Orleans, these are the only three cupcakes in the Western Conference.

The Cavaliers only decent road wins of the season came way back in early December at Memphis and then at Denver. But really and truly, the Grizzlies had yet to find their groove at the time and the Nuggets had been underachieving up until that point and actually fired their coach shortly thereafter. Setting aside subjectivity, Memphis is the only team Cleveland has beat on the road with a winning record this year.

To put this dynamic in better perspective, let’s also look at the Western Conference teams Cleveland has lost to on the road. We are referring to setbacks at Minnesota, at Sacramento, at Seattle, at Los Angeles Lakers, at San Antonio, at Phoenix, and at Los Angeles Clippers. And since our primary concern is with pointspread results, note that Cleveland was a picture perfect 0-7 ATS in these seven respective tilts.

If you throw out the loss against the Clippers, who have a losing record, the Cavaliers are a hardly impressive 1-6 both SU and ATS on the road when facing Western Conference teams with a winning record. CLE is additionally 0-2 SU at Miami and 0-1 SU at Detroit this year. So save perhaps Memphis, CLE really has not beaten an elite team on the road all season.

The flip side is that Paul Silas’ bunch is a profitable 10-6 ATS when visiting teams (West or East) that have lost more games than they have won. But that has as much to do with facing cream puffs such as the Bobcats (twice), Hawks (twice) and a host of other “Leastern Conference” foes than any sort of steady improvement by Cleveland away from Gund.

In more specific terms, the Cavaliers have taken advantage of playing a number of atrocious teams in their own conference and have been lucky enough to face the few patsies in the West. Another great factual gauge of this is that Cleveland is 7-3 ATS when priced as a road favorite, but just 5-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.

In the final analysis, our advice is to be extra cautious trying to beat the NBA betting odds by taking Cleveland away from Gund. Or, better yet perhaps is to think twice before backing the Cavs on the road vs. upper echelon foes. King James might be able to work miracles on the basketball court, but his team has a long ways to go before it can be trusted to part the “green” sea with regularity on the rough and tumble NBA trail.

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Written by admin · Filed Under Basketball Handicapping