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2006 NBA Finals Tempo

To run, or not to run? That is the big question for the NBA Finals as Miami battles Dallas and you are trying to make your NBA playoffs picks. Actually the key will be who controls the tempo? Detroit had an explosive offense all season, then blew away the Cavaliers in their first two playoff games. Suddenly, the Cavs completely slowed down the pace, controlling the tempo, and winning 3 in a row over the stunned Pistons. The Heat also controlled the pace in slowing down Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals.

A younger and deep Dallas lineup no doubt will want to run while Miami will try and slow the tempo. Dallas has been unique and unpredictable in the postseason with respect to tempo. Against San Antonio, the Mavs played the Spurs’ pace in Game 1, a slow, methodical tempo won by San Antonio 87-85. However, the Mavs scrapped that style and went up tempo the rest of the series, winning 3 in a row for those taking them with their NBA picks, in fact, by running.

Dallas continued to play up tempo in Game 1 against Phoenix, but lost at home 121-118. So what did Dallas do? Scrapped that plan and played defense the next five games, winning four of them. After scoring 121 in that first game, the Suns scored 98, 88, 106, 101 and 93 the rest of the series. After missing most of Game 1 against Phoenix, Josh Howard averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds in the final five games. The Mavs went 4-1 with him.

So what does Dallas and Miami do now? Game 1 may have told us a lot. It makes sense for Dallas to run, not only because they are younger, but because Miami is a terrific high percentage shooting team, almost solely from the low post, along with Dwyane Wade’s drives. Dallas is less likely to keep Miami from shooting well (just ask the Pistons, who had no answer for Shaq or Wade). But a halfcourt pace favors the Heat. After all, Shaq is 34-years old and Alonzo Mourning is a 36-year-old veteran. And we saw a low-scoring 90-80 affair in Game 1, and perhaps, a bit surprisingly, a Dallas victory.

For Dallas to continue to be successful against the Heat, that could mean turning often to a group that includes Dirk Nowitzki in the middle, forcing O’Neal to defend a fellow seven-footer who has the quickness and shooting prowess of a guard. Dwyane Wade said defending the Mavericks in that scenario would become the ultimate team challenge. On the other side of the ledger, Dallas will have to decide whether or not to double team O’Neal. In the regular season, the Suns had success double-teaming Shaq with smaller players at all times and daring the Heat to beat them with ball movement. Miami has been much better in the postseason against that type of defense.

Oddly, one game really turned around Miami’s season: a 112-76 loss to the Mavericks. Afterwards, Gary Payton and Udonis Haslem addressed the Heat players. “There’s nothing worse than being out on the court knowing that your teammates don’t trust you and you don’t trust them,” Haslem said this week. “I don’t think we had 100 percent trust for one another.”

Three days later, they turned things around, as the Heat rallied from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit at home to beat the Pistons. Wade scored the Heat’s final 17 points in that game, and it started a stretch in which the Heat won 15 of 16 games. So now Miami comes full circle, in a sense: To thank the Mavericks for helping to turn things around? Or, to get beat again by the better, younger team?

Dallas Miami NBA Finals Picks

We are down to the Final two! The NBA Finals will see a first time champion, too. The interesting part about this series will be youth versus experience, and tempo. Shaquille O’Neal just turned 34 and his minutes are more limited than at any time in his career. Head coach Pat Riley brings a team into the Finals for the first time since 1994 when he was with the Knicks. He last won as coach in 1988 with the Lakers. Throw in veterans Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning, and Miami is a roster of old stars so when making your NBA picks keep this in mind. Fortunately they have one young star in the remarkable Dwyane Wade. Wade torched a supposedly great Pistons defense, shooting 61.7 percent. And one game he had the flu! Wade averaged 26.7 points, with 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.83 steals and 1.5 blocks against Detroit. Jason Terry and Josh Howard have the quickness to stay with Wade, so that defensive matchup is going to be critical.

Miami is not a good three-point shooting team, but they shot just under 48% from the field, second best in the NBA, and Shaq is still a force in the low post (just like the Pistons’ Wallaces). Miami went 2-12 against division leaders during the regular season and lost twice to Dallas, but they are the healthiest they’ve been all season. Miami is only 25-24 SU on the road and 4-17 SU, 9-12 ATS as an underdog.

While Miami is full of old pros, Dallas is a relatively young team, with speed and quickness as an edge. The Dallas defense will be tested by Wade’s quickness and Shaq’s girth in the middle. Expect to see a rotation on Shaq, led by 280-pound Dallas Center DeSagana Diop. Dallas is 40-9 SU, 26-22 ATS at home, and 31-18 SU on the road. Dallas is even 9-8 SU, 12-5 ATS as an underdog.

Dallas hammered Miami twice this season and that could factor into our NBA picks for the finals. In the first meeting, Dallas won 103-90 at Miami with Shaq sitting out. Dallas shot 50% that game, while Wade shot 7-of-19 and was just 0-for-3 from long range. In the second meeting, Dallas won 112-76 at home shooting 56%! Shaq played that game, getting 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, but Wade was 6-of-13 for 16 points. DeSagana Diop played 12 minutes and picked up 4 fouls, though it didn’t matter as Dallas nailed 11-of-16 three-pointers. Diop played 12 minutes in the first meeting and picked up 3 fouls and 2 rebounds.

Tempo will be huge. Miami slowed the pace down against Detroit and dominated, playing great defense and still shooting for a high percentage. Dallas is younger with great quickness, so they will look to go uptempo, as they did during the regular season against Miami, scoring 103 and 112 points. Miami will do everything possible to not go uptempo.

If this series comes down to three-point shooting, Dallas has a significant edge. Miami is not strong from long range, while Dallas ranked #8 shooting 37 percent from long range. In fact, in the two meetings this season, Dallas made 19-of-34 three pointers, while Miami made 2-of-20 treys!

Dallas is 25-0 this season when forward Josh Howard scores at least 20 points. “We’re fearless, never going to back down no matter what the score is,” said Howard. Hang on, this should be an entertaining series, not only on the court, but on the clipboards with Avery Johnson and Pat Riley matching chess moves.

2005 NBA Betting Picks

The 2005-2006 Pistons are on their way to proving there is a difference between being a good regular season team and a good postseason team. As they drop both games in Miami and fall into a 3-1 series deficit, the overwhelming favorites to repeat in the Eastern Conference could be on their way out and you need to consider this when making your NBA betting picks.

Why?

As crazy as this sounds, they might be too team oriented. The same thing that propelled them to greatness in the regular season could be the thing that’s holding them back in the playoffs. What are they missing? If you look at every Championship team, they have that go-to guy who puts their team on their back in the clutch.

This go-to guy demands so much attention that defensive game plans are built around stopping this one player, which leaves big holes for the other players to step up. The Pistons don’t have this guy and remember that when making your NBA picks.

Why did Cleveland nearly beat Detroit, despite being an inferior team? Lebron James. There was no secret as to where the ball was going to be in Cleveland’s offense and now, in the Miami series, it’s Lebron’s buddy, Dwayne Wade, taking over in key situations. Even with the great “teams” of the past, there was no discrepancy as to which player would take the shots to finish off an opponent, or when they got behind, or in a close game down the stretch.

The 1982-84 Celtics are known as one of the great “teams”. They started, Parish, Bird, Maxwell, Johnson, and Henderson and brought McHale off the bench, but there was no question that Larry Bird would take or create every big shot.

Chauncey Billups appears to be the closest thing the Pistons have to a clutch player, finishing 5th in the MVP balloting this season. However, he does not go to the basket well, and defenders can crowd him knowing that he’s going to settle for jumpers. It’s plain to see that Lebron and Wade are far superior as go-to type players so early in their careers and their ability to go to the hole allows them to get better opportunities as defenders have to respect their ability to drive. If you look at the Pistons, some might say that Rip Hamilton should be taking the big shots. The problem is, he can’t create any shots for himself. He is a catch and shoot player who depends on his teammates to free him with screens. If you want to know the truth, it’s Tayshaun Prince who has the makings of being the go-to guy this Pistons team desperately needs. He usually poses matchup problems for teams because if you guard him small to take away his quickness, he can post you and use his size and length, but if you try to guard him with a bigger player, he’ll blow right by you.

I believe this Pistons team is going to struggle in the postseason unless they can foster Prince into this role.

You might be thinking isn’t this the same Pistons team who won the Championship a couple years ago. Yes it is, however, the Eastern Conference was as weak as it’s ever been and the Lakers were a soap opera otherwise they would have dismantled them. Lebron James, and Dwayne Wade were rookies then, and now they are emerging as the best players in the NBA, really elevating the level of play in the Eastern Conference as well as the NBA as a whole.

As more and more teams are improving in the NBA, all I can say is, the Pistons better find a go-to guy or they’ll be going home earlier and earlier.

2006 NBA Betting Odds

This is the third installment of our continuing series on NBA teams and situational analysis in order to beat the NBA betting odds. As noted in the first two parts of the series, we pay close attention to situational factors when handicapping the NBA. In fact, it is the quintessential component of our NBA handicapping methodology.

In this week’s report, we break down the Cleveland Cavaliers. Lebron James and Company epitomize a dynamic we see often with talented young teams in the NBA. That is, they thrive in front of their home fans but are unable to breakthrough with any sort of meaningful success on the road.

The Cavs are actually a robust 21-6 SU and 16-11 ATS at Gund Arena. Away from Gund, however, CLE is just 10-18 SU and 12-15-1 ATS. Their road mark on the surface might seem like an improvement. After all, the Cavs are only two wins shy of matching last year’s output of 12-29 SU when away. But a closer look reveals Cleveland has a long ways to go in the hostile environs of other teams’ arenas, especially in terms of beating the NBA betting odds.

Consider that the Cavaliers are a back breaking 2-9 ATS when visiting teams with a winning record. Contrast that dismalness with the Cavs impressive 9-3 ATS mark hosting teams with a winning record. From those numbers alone it is pretty easy to glean just how important playing in their own building is to the Cavalier’s success.

To expand upon this point further, note that nine of Cleveland’s ten road wins have come vs. teams who shouldered a losing record at the time. This includes two wins at the woeful 10-45 (SU) Atlanta Hawks and two more wins at the equally woeful 11-42 (SU) Charlotte Bobcats. Their other road win in the East came at 29-28 (SU) Boston, who only recently climbed above the .500 mark. Free Basketball Picks

Interestingly enough, Cleveland’s other five wins came against Western Conference foes. But there is an enormous caveat to consider and that is who those five Western foes were. Three of these wins came against the 16-39 (SU) Golden State Warriors, 22-32 (SU) Portland Trailblazers and 19-37 (SU) Utah Jazz. In all three contests, CLE was actually priced as a road favorite in terms of the NBA betting odds. Aside from New Orleans, these are the only three cupcakes in the Western Conference.

The Cavaliers only decent road wins of the season came way back in early December at Memphis and then at Denver. But really and truly, the Grizzlies had yet to find their groove at the time and the Nuggets had been underachieving up until that point and actually fired their coach shortly thereafter. Setting aside subjectivity, Memphis is the only team Cleveland has beat on the road with a winning record this year.

To put this dynamic in better perspective, let’s also look at the Western Conference teams Cleveland has lost to on the road. We are referring to setbacks at Minnesota, at Sacramento, at Seattle, at Los Angeles Lakers, at San Antonio, at Phoenix, and at Los Angeles Clippers. And since our primary concern is with pointspread results, note that Cleveland was a picture perfect 0-7 ATS in these seven respective tilts.

If you throw out the loss against the Clippers, who have a losing record, the Cavaliers are a hardly impressive 1-6 both SU and ATS on the road when facing Western Conference teams with a winning record. CLE is additionally 0-2 SU at Miami and 0-1 SU at Detroit this year. So save perhaps Memphis, CLE really has not beaten an elite team on the road all season.

The flip side is that Paul Silas’ bunch is a profitable 10-6 ATS when visiting teams (West or East) that have lost more games than they have won. But that has as much to do with facing cream puffs such as the Bobcats (twice), Hawks (twice) and a host of other “Leastern Conference” foes than any sort of steady improvement by Cleveland away from Gund.

In more specific terms, the Cavaliers have taken advantage of playing a number of atrocious teams in their own conference and have been lucky enough to face the few patsies in the West. Another great factual gauge of this is that Cleveland is 7-3 ATS when priced as a road favorite, but just 5-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.

In the final analysis, our advice is to be extra cautious trying to beat the NBA betting odds by taking Cleveland away from Gund. Or, better yet perhaps is to think twice before backing the Cavs on the road vs. upper echelon foes. King James might be able to work miracles on the basketball court, but his team has a long ways to go before it can be trusted to part the “green” sea with regularity on the rough and tumble NBA trail.

Get more information at Vegas scores and odds.

Las Vegas NBA Odds Handicapping

As most of you know by now, we focus heavily on situational analysis in our capping when trying to beat the Las Vegas NBA odds. Perhaps more so than any other sport, NBA teams are prone to certain patterns of play due to the long and grueling, topsy-turvy season.

We always ask questions such as:

Has a team shown a propensity to carry tired legs in the second of back-to-back nights? Has a team been complacent versus weaker foes, but focused when playing upper echelon opponents?

Has a team been ripe for a letdown after an upset win? Conversely, has a team shown the ability to turnaround with a huge effort after an embarrassing loss?

These are just a few of the many situational factors we investigate when breaking down a game against the Las Vegas NBA odds. And trust us, correctly answering these sorts of questions serves as a proverbial treasure chest for the astute capper. There is no getting around the fact that there are clear patterns of play associated with certain teams.

Looking at our questions above, we find it all too common, for example, to witness a club fall flat on its’ face after a big upset win, but turnaround with a huge effort after a bad loss. As it pertains to this season, the Orlando Magic fall into this category.

That is, the Mousketeers are the epitome of a team susceptible to the highs and lows of the NBA season depending on the outcome of their previous game. Consider that Orlando is an ultra complacent 7-17-1 against the spread (ATS) after an outright win, but particularly resilient at 14-6-1 ATS after an outright loss. Along these lines, the Magic are also a tragic 4-13 ATS off a straight up (SU) home win this year.

These types of situational patterns are all over the place if you look hard enough. We’ll be back next week with another glaring team trend to pad your pockets.

Free NBA Picks

We now have the free NBA picks posted by some of the top handicappers in the world available every day. There are only a handful of handicappers out there who can help you take down your book in every sport and we have most of them offering their selections on our site. We are proud to be able to help our visitors out by displaying their expertise. Read the analysis that comes with each selection so you will feel confident they will deliver for you on the premium side.

Along with their free NBA basketball picks you can also stay up to date with what each handicapper is offering on their premium side. They will be posting their reviews of what has been going on for their clients on the premium side, and also what they have on tap for that night and the days to come. If you want to keep in touch with some of the world’s best handicappers then this is the page to do it.

We do want to stress that these free NBA picks are not the best selections released by our handicappers. If you want the same predictions that professional bettors around the world take interest in then sign up for a package today. You will get all the sports picks each one personally likes for that day.

Free NBA Basketball Picks

The free NBA basketball picks at our site are world class and will help you win money this winter. If you want to start winning more of your bets then you are going to want to know which teams the sharp bettors will be playing each day. The best way to do that is to figure out which teams these world class handicappers are predicting will come out on top. If you are doing your own handicapping, then you will want to check out this page in order to make sure that you are on the right track. 

However, if you are looking for some help then use these free NBA picks to help decide which service is right for you. We know that not everyone likes betting on totals and money lines so while most services only play spreads, you have to make sure they are compatible with your needs before purchasing. What time do the plays come out, do they have phone service, are just a few of the questions that you are going to want to ask before signing up. 

While we want you to take advantage of these NBA basketball picks, you need to realize these are not the top-rated selections put out by these services. In order to get the same selections that the high-rollers go after you will need to pick up a premium package. And remember that you will want to choose a couple of sportsbooks that fit your needs in order to maximize your winnings. 

2006 NBA Playoffs & Defense

NBA Playoffs are often about defense, and the Pistons/Heat series has been a textbook example. A strangling defense has been the norm, especially from Pat Riley and the Miami Heat. Detroit averaged 96 ppg this season, yet in this series they’ve scored 86, 92, 83, 78 and 91 points. In fact, all five games have gone under the total, a key thing to remember for your NBA Picks this season.

Miami’s defense has been exceptional. In Game 3, Detroit shot 42% and got beat on the boards 40-27. In Game 4 Detroit shot 39% and in Game 5 they shot 42.9%, and won! This is common this time of year as the games mean so much that teams and coaches stress the importance of all-out defense on nearly every possession.

If you believe the conspiracy theorists, the NBA has changed the rules since 2004 to try to get more offense going. That happened after the Pistons and their slow-down defense won the title in 2004. David Stern stopped all the bumping and grabbing on and off the ball. He opened the floor up for quick players such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. High scoring means more fan interest and higher TV ratings. The game was getting a bit stagnant. And what one event stood out more than any other this season? Probably Kobe Bryant’s 81-point game.

In doing this, he was taking away a bit of an edge that teams like the Pistons and Spurs had: being physical on defense. Stern said this week, “I think it is fair to say that we went through a period where it became fashionable to get a piece of a player in the lane, and if you didn’t stop him, you at least slowed him up. We made a decision to say we wanted to try it the other way. I think our fans and our players are responding to that. It’s giving people a chance to see how talented our players really are. We are pretty excited about that.”

So the physical and team-oriented Spurs are already out of the playoffs, upended by Dallas, while the Pistons might not be far behind. Still, loads of defense can be found in the current series. A key to this series has been Tayshaun Prince. He hurt Miami in Game 2, with 24 points as Detroit won 92-88. Prince was 10-of-20 shooting, after which Riley pointed out how Prince had hurt them and he needed to find a way to prevent Prince from getting open and to attack him as he drove the lane.

They did. In Game 3 Prince was 1-of-7 shooting in 46 minutes, and in Game 4 Prince was 6-of-16 shooting for just 15 points. Miami won both to take a 3-1 series lead. In Game 5, Prince was 11-of-17 shooting for a team high 29 points. He has really blossomed as a terrific all-around player, and as he has gone in this series, so have the Pistons.

As you watch the Heat and Pistons this weekend, note that in the last 13 meetings between these teams, the home team is 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS. That’s a key obstacle the Pistons are going to have to overcome Friday in Miami. But they’ve done it before! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

Pinnacle Pulse on the 2006 NBA Finals

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble

With three games gone in the NBA Championship series, there have been more
than a few surprises. Even casual NBA followers were surprised at how low
scoring the first two games were. Game 1 had a total of 170 points scored
(with a total of 192.5), whereas Game 2 had 183 points scored (with the
total at 188). Only Game 3 went over as 194 points were scored while the
total closed at 189.5.

While many can set a basketball total line based on “feel”, the deadliest
totals players at Pinnacle Sportsbook combine statistical analysis with a
subjective understanding of the teams. If you want to set a baseline, you
should begin analysis by looking at five statistics: each team’s average
points scored, average points allowed by each team, and the league scoring
average.

During the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 99.1 points per
game while allowing 93.1 points per game. Miami scored 99.9 points per
game and allowed 96. An inexperienced bettor might use just those four
numbers and assume their average (96.8 per team, or 193.7 per game) will
carry forward. The problem with using straight averages is that it dilutes
the affects of high or low statistics.

If team “A” scores five points more than the league average, and this team
plays a team with an average defense, you’d expect it to score five points
more than average. If you take a straight average of these two statistics,
you would predict team “A” to only score 2.5 points better than average,
which is the wrong way to go about things.

A better way to set a baseline for a total is to compare a team’s
statistics to the league average. For example, Dallas’s average of 99.1
points per game was 1.9 higher than the league average. The Mavericks’
defense (93.1 compared to NBA average of 97.2) was 4.1 lower than the NBA
average. Miami scored 2.7 more per game (99.9 versus NBA average 97.2),
while allowing 1.2 less (96 versus NBA avg. 97.2).

You now have four “totals adjusters”: Dallas has +1.9 (offense) and -4.1
(defense); Miami has +2.7 (offense) and -1.2 (defense). Add them all up,
and your “team total adjustment” is (1.9-4.1+2.7-1.2) = -0.7. Add this to
the NBA game average (97.2 * 2), and you get a “baseline total” of 193.7
(which is close to the game 1 total of 192.5). This method is particularly
accurate when you have two influential statistics that would move the line
in the same direction – e.g. a team with a strong defense versus a weak
offense.

The baseline gives a good general measure of a match-up, but coaching
decisions can cause some significant changes. One of the biggest factors
is the pace of a game. In general, the superior team will benefit from a
faster pace. The more possessions in a game, the more likely the law of
large numbers will win out. Most games have about 85-95 possessions per
team. If you look at a box score, the number of possessions = field goal
attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts.
This same formula can be used to evaluate the normal “pace” of a team by
reviewing its season-long statistics.

Plugging in the regular season stats and using the pace formula, will show
that Dallas averages 90 possessions per game, while Miami averages 93
possessions. With the first two games of the series going under, you might
have examined their pace. Did a coaching strategy slow the game down?

Using the possessions formula, Game 1 offered 89 possessions each, while
Game 2 offered 90 each. This pace was fairly typical of these teams. To
understand why these games went under (especially Game 1, which went under
by 22½ points), look at another statistic: offensive efficiency.

Offensive efficiency is simply the average number of points scored by a
team per 100 possessions. In the regular season, Dallas scored 99.1 points
on 90 possessions per game for an offensive rating of 110. Miami allowed
93 points on 93 possessions, for a defensive rating of 100. One should be
cautious using season averages because a lineup change or coaching
philosophy can drastically change a team’s performance. Therefore, using
stats from the last 10 games rather than the whole season may be better.

In Game 1, Dallas scored 90 points on 90 possessions, which was about five
points less than one would guess looking at the teams’ ratings. Similarly,
Miami only scored 80 points in 90 possessions, whereas the statistics of
the two teams predict about 92.5 points. In Game 2, both teams again
scored slightly less than their offensive efficiencies would suggest.

When a game result is a far call from what’s expected, the box-score can
tell a lot. The first thing to check (both after an unusual result and
before doing analysis) are player injuries. A starter getting a lot fewer
minutes than normal in a competitive game is one indicator. Maybe the game
played at a different pace than expected. Neither of these factors were
the main cause in Game 1 – just poor shooting. If there’s no fundamental
change in team tactics, shooting will revert to the mean (as it did in
Game 2).

There is another factor to consider. Everyone has seen the frantic pace of
the last minute of a close game. In Game 6 of the Dallas-Phoenix series,
there were 10 possessions in the last 60 seconds as Phoenix pressed to
equalize. In the first two Miami-Dallas games, there were only four
possessions in the last minute of each blowout-game. It was a different
story in Game 3 where there was no more than a two point difference
between the teams at any stage during the last minute of the game. When
handicapping the total, consider the spread as well. The closer the match,
the more likely a frantic final minute or overtime is likely to occur.

Another important factor to consider when betting a total or any sport is
the juice or ‘vig’ – the bookmaker’s cut for taking a bet. All
professional bettors know what a huge impact it has on whether you have
won or lost at the end of the season. If a player wants to win $100
betting a total, he risks $110 with a traditional bookie. That extra $10
is the bookmaker’s commission for taking the bet. This is known as -110
pricing.

At Pinnacle Sports Book, we don’t charge the retail -110 price for placing
bets on totals. On NBA totals, we use -105 style pricing instead which
offers up to 50% better value than other sportsbooks and saves any player
$5 on every $100 wager they make.

Put another way, a player has to win close to 53% of their totals just to
break even at traditonal -110 pricing. At a low juice sports book like
Pinnacle Sportsbetting, you only need to win just 51% of your plays to
break even. Something to think about!

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