November 26, 2008
Two free NBA looks from the SPORTS ADVISORS:
Orlando (10-4, 6-7-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (7-7, 6-8 ATS)
The Magic gun for their fifth consecutive road victory when they invade the Wachovia Center for an Eastern Conference clash with the Sixers.
Orlando bested the Bucks 108-101 on Monday, but fell short of cashing as a nine-point home chalk, dropping to 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games, all as a favorite. However, since dropping their road-opener at Memphis, the Magic have won four straight on the highway (2-1-1 ATS).
Philadelphia slipped up at Charlotte on Monday, losing 93-84 to the lowly Bobcats as a three-point road favorite. The 76ers are still on a 5-2 SU roll (3-0 at home), but they’ve followed up a 3-0 ATS run by failing to cash in three of their last four games.
The Magic knocked off Philadelphia 98-88 as a five-point home favorite back on Nov. 6, improving to 6-1 in the last seven meetings (4-3 ATS). The host has won the last four head-to-head clashes and covered the spread in each of the last five. However, the underdog is 22-10 ATS in the past 32 meetings.
Orlando’s ATS streaks including 4-0 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 on Wednesdays and 36-16-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, Philadelphia is mired in pointspread slumps of 0-7 against the Southeast Division, 3-8 versus the Eastern Conference and 1-5 on Wednesday.
The over is 6-2 in Orlando’s last eight overall and 5-1 in its last six when going on one day of rest. Otherwise, for Orlando, the under is on runs of 13-4 on the road, 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 19-7 against the Eastern Conference and 10-4-1 on Wednesdays, while the Sixers are on under stretches of 10-4-1 overall, 20-7 at home, 7-1-1 against the East and 4-0 on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Chicago (7-8, 9-6 ATS) at San Antonio (7-6, 6-7 ATS)
The Bulls continue their brutal seven-game, 13-day road trip at the AT&T Center, where they will attempt to cool off the red-hot Spurs.
Chicago is 2-3 on its journey so far, but one of the victories came Monday in Utah, a surprising 101-100 win as a 6½-point underdog. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (4-2 ATS as an underdog), scoring 100 points or more in five of those contests.
San Antonio improved to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games with Monday’s 94-81 rout of Memphis as a three-point road chalk. The Spurs have gone back to their defensive-oriented ways, holding nine straight opponents under trip digits while allowing 94 points or fewer in eight straight games.
The SU winner is 9-0 ATS in San Antonio’s last nine contests and 10-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 11.
The Spurs swept the season series from Chicago last year, winning 94-79 as a 9½-point home favorite and 102-80 as a five-point road chalk. The winner has cashed in each of the last six meetings and eight of the last nine, but the visitor is on an 11-3 ATS roll in this rivalry, with Chicago going 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to the AT&T Center.
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one day of rest, but the Bulls are on negative ATS runs of 7-20 after a victory, 4-11 after a spread-cover, 4-9 against the Southwest Division and 1-4 on Wednesdays. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Central Division and 0-4 in its last four on Wednesdays.
The Spurs are on a bunch of “under” streaks, including 20-6-1 overall (9-4 this year), 5-1 at home, 12-0-1 after a SU win, 13-3 after an ATS win and 36-17 when going on one day of rest. For the Bulls, the under is on stretches of 7-3-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2-2 versus the Southwest Division and 8-3 on one day of rest, but the over is 17-8-2 in their last 27 road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
November 25, 2008
Today’s featured free NBA pick comes straight from Dave Price:
1 unit FREE PLAY on Phoenix Suns -10.5
The Thunder simply does not have the horses to compete with Phoenix especially with as well as Shaq has played this season. With he and Amare Stoudemire, the Suns will have their way with Oklahoma City inside. The Thunder have lost 11 in a row SU and 6 of 7 ATS. The Suns are 5-2 on the road early on and their solid road play will continue throughout the season because their defense is better. Oklahoma City is only scoring 86.5 ppg at home this season, losing by an average of 12.3 ppg in all games this season. The Suns are scoring 101.6 ppg on the road this season. One of the best offensive teams in basketball will be able to handle the worst team in the NBA tonight. Lay the number.
Now let’s see what the best premium packages of the day are. Be sure to go to each cappers’ page for more details on picking up the winning picks! Here are today’s top promotions:
Doc’s NBA Totals Game of the Week: The doctor nailed another NBA winner on Monday and now will put out his top totals play for this week on Tuesday. He is on a 3-0 pro hardwood run so sign-up now and let 37 years of experience work for you.
Jeff Alexander’s ***Major Alert*** NBA DOG OF THE WEEK! Runs of 5-1 L6 and 9-3 L12 Basketball Picks! The 2007-08 NBA World Handicapping Champ stays locked in on the pro hardwood tonight with a junkyard dog that is barking off its chain and foaming at the mouth. A pair of deadly trends and a strong 39-13 ATS system (since 1996) has Jeff feeling 100% confident that this dog will win OUTRIGHT!
**BIG GAME ALERT** Ben Burns Conference GAME OF MONTH! Ben Burns began the new week with a profitable Monday, including a double-digit winner with his NBA play. On Tuesday, Ben is STEPPING OUT with his #1 Conference GAME OF THE MONTH. If you liked his #1 November TNT G.O.M. (Boston 98-80 over Detroit) OR last Tuesday’s BLOWOUT WINNER with Indiana over Atlanta, you won’t want to miss this one!
***TOP PLAY*** Jimmy Boyd’s NBA Non-Conf. GAME OF THE MONTH! Runs of 4-1 and 6-2 on the pro hardwood! Jimmy’s last NBA 5* TOP PLAY selection was released Sunday night and it was an easy winner on the Kings in his West Coast Game of the Year! Jimmy brings his NBA TOP PLAY back tonight on his strongest Non-Conference side in the month of November. This baby comes fully backed by an awesome 24-5 ATS system with 5 straight winning seasons at its back! Go Big of Go Home with Jimmy B. on the pro wood tonight!
If you want to beat the NBA lines then make sure to purchase a package from our handicappers!
November 24, 2008
We have the best college basketball picks you’ll find anywhere. Our team of experts is ready to make you money tonight! Let’s see what our top college hoops handicappers have on tap Monday.
If you are a college hoops bettor and want to bet along side the #1 Ranked Overall Handicapper, then John Martin has the perfect package for you tonight! Get his Monday 3-for-1 NCAA Hoops Special for $29.99 to earn you access to a trio of plays where the odds makers have set the number way off the mark! John has winners in Washington/Kansas, E. Washington/St. John’s and Toledo/Florida International tonight! GUARANTEED to PROFIT or Tuesday’s plays are FREE of Charge!
Matt Fargo starts a new week in NCAA Hoops and looks to start a new streak as well. It has been an unusually slow start on the college hardwood for Fargo who is notorious for busting out of the gates! It only makes him work that much harder and he has done so here! He has a TOP PLAY from Hawaii in the Maui Invitational that you cannot pass up! Join him on Monday for a big Winner!
Jimmy Boyd is on a 7-2 Run L9 Basketball Picks! It won’t take you long to realize that no one cleans up the hardwood quite like Jimmy B. Jimmy continues his hoops domination tonight with the strongest side on the board Monday. A 22-5 ATS System is the strongest Jimmy has seen in the early going and it has absolutely pegged the winner here! BE THERE!
ODDS MAKER OVERSIGHT! Dave Price has pegged a dog that is barking up a storm tonight behind an ULTRA-STRONG 12-0 ATS Situation! Take advantage of a bookmaker gift with Mr. Price right here right NOW!
Ben Burns closed out last college hoops season ON FIRE & he’s picked up right where he left off. Yesterday’s outright winner (Xavier) gave him a 75% RECORD YTD. That includes a 2-0 mark with his two “Personal Favorites.” San Diego (-6) won by 14 & last Monday Siena (-14) SMASHED BOISE BY 30 PTS. Ben has isolated another BLOWOUT today!
Off Saturday’s 3-0 CBB SWEEP, Jeff Alexander is ready to take advantage of the books lack of knowledge about these lesser known programs tonight. An UNBEATEN 7-0 ATS POWER SITUATION has Jeff already heading to the bank! GET IN ON IT!
Mikey Sports has a 5* LOCK CBB play, TOP 4* CBB play and a 3* CBB play for Monday! Documented 63% last year in CBB. 15-4 79% so far this year in CBB! 19-4 83% last 23 premium plays overall!
Good Luck today!
November 23, 2008
By MIKE LIPKA, STATS Writer 13 hours, 35 minutes ago
Kevin Garnett got a hero’s welcome at his old stomping grounds and the Boston Celtics got an easy victory in their most recent game.
The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, got burned by their own former player’s return – and may have lost one of their current stars in the process.
Both teams will try to move on when they meet for a Sunday matinee in Toronto, although the Raptors may have to play without Jermaine O’Neal as they look to end Boston’s four-game winning streak.
Garnett was injured when the Celtics visited Minnesota last season, so Friday’s game marked the first time he suited up in the city where he spent his first 12 NBA seasons before the Timberwolves traded him to Boston in July 2007.
The former league MVP received a standing ovation, then scored 17 points while shooting 8-of-12 from the field in the Celtics’ 95-78 victory.
“It’s always good to go somewhere and feel the love in the building,” Garnett said. “It’s even better to win in the place I used to play. It was a good feeling. There was a lot of great energy in the building. I was just blessed that the people came out.”
Boston (12-2) outscored Minnesota 35-10 in the third quarter before cruising to its fourth straight victory and 10th in 11 games. The reigning NBA champions held the Wolves to 31.3 percent shooting – the seventh time this season a Boston opponent shot worse than 40 percent from the field.
The Raptors (6-6), meanwhile, had no answer defensively for Vince Carter on Friday night, as the former Toronto star scored 39 points to guide the New Jersey Nets to a 129-127 overtime win at the Air Canada Centre.
In contrast to the cheers for Garnett, Carter was again booed in Toronto after spending six-plus rocky seasons with the Raptors from 1998-2004, but he scored 12 straight points for the Nets late to force overtime. New Jersey erased an 18-point third-quarter deficit to drop Toronto to 2-3 this season at home.
“I don’t even know what to say, I’m so upset,” said Toronto’s Andrea Bargnani, who had 29 points and 10 rebounds. “It’s unbelievable. We were winning, we had the game under control, we made a couple of stupid mistakes.”
After a slow start, Bargnani has emerged in the last two games, averaging 27.0 points and shooting 8-of-14 from 3-point range.
Against New Jersey, Chris Bosh scored 42 points and Jose Calderon added 26 and 15 assists, but Toronto struggled defensively, forcing only seven turnovers and allowing the Nets to shoot 51.5 percent from the field.
Even worse, O’Neal strained his surgically repaired left knee when he was fouled early in the fourth quarter. He didn’t practice on Saturday, but tests showed no structural damage and he could play in Sunday’s contest.
O’Neal missed 40 games last season for Indiana due to problems with the knee.
“We’ve already made contingency plans if he can’t go,” Raptors coach Sam Mitchell said.
It may be tough enough even with him against the Celtics, who won three out of four against Toronto last season, including both trips north of the border.
The Raptors also lost 94-87 in Boston on Nov. 10, when Paul Pierce scored a season-high 36 points.
BasketballFreeSportsPicks.com Free Pick: Celtics
November 22, 2008
Jimmy Boyd is Off a perfect 2-0 day on the college hardwood and a 4-0 day of hoops action overall (Dime Players profit $14,000), Jimmy looks to SWEEP the books again with Saturday’s three best sides featuring his NCAAB Big Chalk BLOWOUT of the Month! 100% Guaranteed to profit or Sunday’s picks are FREE!
Jimmy got Friday started off right on the college hardwood by cashing in his 4* Major Afternoon Delight on Miami at high noon CST. He then gave you a little night cap with an easy winner on Portland to complete a 2-0 Sweep on the college hardwood and a 4-0 hoops Sweep on the day! Jimmy is pounding a double digits favorite that will double up on the number Saturday. This baby comes fully backed by a 100% perfect 23-0 ATS Angle! Get it NOW!
Yesterday, Dave Price took the points with Akron and came away with a nice 4* Winner! Dave UPS THE ANTE Saturday with a plays that deserves a healthy wager! A 100% Perfect 10-0 ATS System has a team winning in this spot by over 30 ppg on average, which would shatter the point spread! You’ll have to see it to believe it! Pick up Saturday’s AWESOME BLOWOUT WINNER NOW!
5-2 Run on the Hardwood! Saturday CBB action is in full effect and Jeff Alexander is ready to kick your man right where it counts – in the pocket – with the 3 best Saturday hoops plays on the board! 100% Guaranteed to profit or Sunday’s entire lineup is on Jeff!
Jack Jones went 3-1 last night in college hoops and we are going to keep pouring it on your man Saturday. Jack has three plays that he likes for today and you can get all of them GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or else tomorrow is on the house!
The Doctor has cashed in with back-2-back NCAA winners and will come strong on Saturday with an easy low odds winner. This homer will get it done so sign-up now with Doc’s Sports and let 37 years of experience work for you.
Mikey Sports has four 3* CBB plays for Saturday! We are killing Basketball! 63% last year in CBB! Let’s better that this year!
Good Luck today!
November 21, 2008
First, we’ll start off with a free NBA pick from one of out leading NBA Hanidcappers, then we’ll dive into the premium plays from many of other experts. Today’s free pick is from John Martin, the #1 overall rated handicapper on the site!
Martin’s Friday NBA Free Play:
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -8
It’s not longer a secret that the Atlanta Hawks have become a contender in the East. After starting the season with six straight wins, the Hawks hit a bit of a cold streak, but they are back on track after beating Washington in their last test. Atlanta should have no problem getting by Charlotte with ease Friday, considering the Bobcats are playing without their best player in Jason Richardson. Charlotte has had an easy schedule early, playing 8 of their first 10 games at home. But the Bobcats have managed just a 3-7 record, getting blown out on a nightly basis. Charlotte has lost both of their road games this season, losing by 17 points at Cleveland and 3 points at New York. But the Bobcats have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall, getting crushed by 8 points or more in 3 of those 4 losses. Home teams are 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between the Bobcats and Hawks. Atlanta won their last two home meetings with Charlotte by 9 and 8 points, covering the spread in each. Anything short of a 10-point win tonight would be a surprise considering Charlotte is playing without their best player in Richardson. Cash in with Atlanta as the favorite.
Now let’s see what’s going on with the rest of our experts in the NBA tonight:
Mr. East has found a huge market inefficiency play, that the odds-makers are totally clueless to. This is a must play game. MREAST already has nailed his NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR and is hitting 68% in the NBA. DON’T MISS!!!!
The 2007-08 NBA World Handicapping Champion gets back on the pro hardwood tonight with the strongest situation he’s found to pound a road team this month! Jeff’s 3-2 NBA roll has Dime bettors up $7,000 since Monday and a 20-6 ATS System provides proof in numbers in the potency on Jeff’s side tonight! Bring down the house with Jeff Alexander on the pro hardwood tonight!
Ben Burns had another winning Thursday overall yesterday but had to settle for a split with his NBA picks. He lost with the Suns but EASILY CASHED his top TNT play, a blowout with Boston. Burns returns with a single selection from the pro hardcourt on Friday. If you liked Wednesday’s Non-Conf GOW winner on Minnesota, you’ll LOVE this ticket!
November 20, 2008
Today we’ll look at what top basketball experts have posted in the NBA and college basketball.
For starters we’ll look at college basketball.
Rocky Atkinson has a TOP 4* CBB play for Thursday! Rocketman finished last year as the documented #1 College Basketball Handicapper with a 72-36 67% record for the entire season! Join us each and every day to maximize your profits with our money management system!
Matt Fargo is coming off a disappointing Wednesday as Virginia won but did not cover while Morehead St. was outscored by 20 in the 2nd half and missed the cover by a point. He gets it back with a BIG BLOWOUT that takes place tonight you cannot miss! Fargo has this one broken down inside and he explains exactly why it will not be close! Build your football bankroll with a Win!
Jeff Alexander goes to war with the books tonight with the 3 highest rated CBB sides on the board. His SIU/Duke and Michigan/UCLA SUREFIRES combine with his 4* Major CBB Line Mistake of the Month to keep the gravy train rolling on the college hardwood tonight. 100% Guaranteed to profit or Friday’s entire card is FREE!
Now let’s see what our experts have going on the two NBA games tonight!
Jimmy Boyd took a tough loss on the 76ers last night in the NBA as they came out flat in the third quarter but Jimmy will get your right back in the black on the pro hardwood tonight with this big time Pacific division winner! Should Kobe and company be getting the chalk at Phoenix or have the odds makers missed their mark? An impressive 15-3 ATS Trend will have you putting the hurt on your man right alongside Jimmy B.!
Matt Fargo cashed in last night with the Pistons with his Eastern Conference Game of the Week as the NBA is heating up again! Fargo is hitting 66.7% of his NBA Reports since last Friday and he continues his surge Thursday! Join him for his BEST BET on the short card as he has the side Winner in the rematch between the Pistons and Celtics! Watch and Win with Fargo on TNT!
Get John Martin’s lone NBA winner tonight GUARANTEED here: 10:35 EST on TNT – Lakers/Suns NBA Sharp Play! (All value in tonight’s Lakers/Suns Pacific Division Rivalry goes down on the Total! I have provided insight in my analysis that shows you whether this will be a shootout or a defensive struggle! 14-4 and 12-3 Totals Systems in my analysis provide the winning insight you need to cash in this late-night NBA winner Thursday!)
November 19, 2008
Our NBA experts are just itching to get you on board and make you some money this season! Today we’ll see what several of our top rated cappers have going on in NBA action Wednesday.
MREAST has a total that he will prove is off by 28 points in the NBA and this is a 34-0 system, one condition only no backfitting!!! His biggest NBA play in 3 years!!! If you do nothing else, CASH THIS ONE!!!!
Ben Burns was 2-0 on the hardcourt last night, including a double-digit winner with Indiana in the pros. Burns returns with his latest BLUE CHIP on Wednesday. If you liked last Wednesday’s 20+ point winner (Rockets/Suns ‘under’) then you won’t want to miss this week’s version. Don’t wait. Get it right away!
Ben Burns was 2-0 on the hardcourt last night, including a double-digit winner with Indiana in the pros. Burns returns with his Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Wednesday. If you liked last Wednesday’s 20+ point winner (Rockets/Suns ‘under’) then you won’t want to miss this BEAUTY. Hop on board right away!
Nobody has done a better job of winning you money in the NBA recently as Jack Jones is 10-3 over his last 13. Keep the winning coming with FIVE big plays going for Wednesday night!
If you are looking to finish your night off on a winning note then take a look at the late NBA winners on the Bulls/Blazers. Nobody is hotter right now on the pro hardwood than Jack Jones as he is 10-3 over his last 13. Cash in NOW!
Jimmy Boyd is 8-6 over his last 14 NBA picks for small profits but one of his famous hot streaks just got started last night with an easy call on the Warriors at home over Portland. Jimmy has another irresistible side on the pro hardwood ready to bury your man 6-feet under. 3 Unstoppable Systems and one STRONG 80% ATS Trend will have you betting big with Jimmy again tonight! Guaranteed as always!
Matt Fargo had the Lakers last night who blew a 21-point lead and got outscored by nine points in the final quarter to get backdoored. He is still on a solid 60% ATS run in the NBA and he adds to it Wednesday with a huge matchup! Join Fargo for his Eastern Conference Game of the Week that is backed by Team Angles a combined 25-7 ATS (78%)! We get it back with an easy ticket!
We also have a featured premium Season Subscription from the capper we think can make you the most money this year!
Jimmy Boyd closed out the 2007-08 NBA season on a tear, profiting Dime Players $33,600 over his last 118 picks! It’s time for a new season and with some newly tweaked systems and more resources at his fingertips, Jimmy is ready to dominate the odds makers all season long. Get every one of Jimmy’s expert NBA picks through the NBA Finals for only $349.95! You won’t find a better price for winning picks anywhere else in the industry!
Visit each cappers’ page to find out more details on how to get these RED HOT picks!
November 18, 2008
There’s plenty to get to for our free NBA picks today, so let’s get right into it!
Jimmy Boyd’s 5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year cashes on Oklahoma State on his way to a 2-0 college hoops sweep to start the week (Dime Players pocket $9,000)! NOW 5-2 L7 NCAAB Picks! Jimmy keeps the pedal to the metal on the college hardwood with his 5* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Month (plus 2 Majors) in Tuesday’s Big 5-Pack! Grab Jimmy’s College Hoops Season pass for the great price of $349.95 NOW for the most winners in the industry through the Final Four Championship Game!
Here’s Jimmy’s free pick of the day in the NBA:
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Kings +5.5
The Kings have been playing much better basketball since their first road trip of the season and I like them to fare much better against a struggling Memphis team which has lost 4 straight. The Kings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. the Western Conference, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest, and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Tuesday games while the Grizzlies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and we’ll take the points tonight.
Jeff Alexander’s 5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Month wins big on the Utah Jazz over the Phoenix Suns Monday! NOW 3 Straight Wiseguys have cashed! No. 4 goes tonight with the reigning NBA World Champ’s 5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK in his Tuesday Trifecta! Jeff has a free pick on the Dallas/Charlotte game tonight, here’s what he has to say about the match up:
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
Dallas is just 3-7 SU and ATS this season and finds itself in a spot that has not treated it well. Dallas is just 3-15 ATS off a road win over the last 2 seasons, 4-19 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and 1-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats have covered 2 in a row and 4 of their last 6. We’ll take the points tonight.
Our final free play is from Dave Price, a proven winner in pro hoops!
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cleveland Cavs -5.5
Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) – good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 52-21 ATS the last 5 seasons. New Jersey is 6-16 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are rolling, having won 7 in a row, and I like them to keep right on rolling tonight. Lay the number.
November 17, 2008
There’s all kinds of action going on in college basketball today! Now is a great time to get started with many of our expert handicappers so that you can ride them to huge profits all season long! Our cappers can spot a winner from a mile away with their in-depth analysis and statistical trend tracking. Let’s see what our top rated college basketball cappers have on tap for Monday!
Mikey Sports has three 3* CBB plays for Monday! Mikey hit 63% last year in College Basketball and ready to roll again this year!
Rocketman Sports has a 3* CBB play for Monday! Documented 72-36 67% last year in CBB. 60% so far this year in CBB action!
You’ll recall that Ben Burns closed out last NCAA season with a pair of HUGE winners, CRUSHING the books with Kansas over UNC (underdog Jayhawks won by 18) & the ‘under’ in the championship game between Kansas & Memphis. That game went to OT & still stayed below the total! Ben tips-off the new season with a game he expects to be a B-L-O-W-O-U-T!
Doc’s Sports is coming off a profitable weekend in college basketball and is set to attack the Big Monday card with an easy homer winner. A report accompanies this pick so sign-up for a line that is way off the mark and let 37 years of experience work for you.
Matt Fargo followed up his Saturday outright win on Illinois St. with a big TOP PLAY win on Sunday with Creighton! He rides this momentum into Monday as he is releasing another TOP PLAY Winner! This one has BLOWOUT written all over it and Fargo is putting you on the right side! Join him as he rides his perfect Weekend run into tonight!
Jimmy Boyd unleashes his first NCAAB GOTY play of the 2008-09 season tonight on a Non-Conference matchup that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! In fact, the 13-4 ATS System Jimmy is hammering has his side winning by an average of 24.0 ppg in tonight’s spot which would destroy the point spread! Take the books to school with Jimmy B. tonight! Guaranteed as always!
Jeff Alexander came through with an easy call on Creighton on the college hardwood Sunday, playing on how strong the Jays have been on their home floor. But is he taking the points or laying them in this neutral court battle between James Madison and ranked Davidson? A 75% ATS Trend will do the trick for you tonight!
Dave Price recaps last night’s game and give you his preview for tonight: K-State came out of the gates swinging last night and took a 23-point lead into halftime, already besting the 21-point spread. The Cats decided to coast in the second half and we end up taking a 1-point ATS loss. Pissed off, yes. Time to panic, are you kidding me? No need to sweat as Dave Price will bounce back big tonight with this easy call in non-conference play, fully backed by a 32-10 ATS System with 5 straight dominant seasons under its belt! You can’t keep Dave down two days in a row. It just doesn’t work that way!
November 14, 2008
Our free play today comes from InfoPlays! One of the most successful handicapping services around! Tonight’s free pick is on the Suns/Kings, here is the pick and the reasoning behind it:
NBA | Nov 14
Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings Total
209½ un-106 at 5DIMES > 6h.
Info Plays Friday, November 14th Free Play:
3* on Suns/Kings UNDER 209.5
Reasons why the Suns/Kings game goes UNDER the Total Friday:
1.) The Phoenix Suns are no longer an offensive juggernaut, while the Sacramento Kings are battling too many injuries to post a big point total tonight. The Suns are actually a more defensive-minded team this season. Phoenix is allowing just 98.1 PPG and scoring just 100.9 PPG. These numbers are a far cry from what the Suns were like under Mike D’Antoni.
2.) Sacramento has 3 key injuries to their three best offensive weapons. Kevin Martin, Quincy Douby and Francisco Garcia have all missed significant time this season and all 3 are expected to be watching from the sidelines tonight. Sacramento is scoring just 99.8 PPG this season, but their defense has been decent at home where they are giving up just 100.5 PPG. Both teams would have to average about 105 points tonight to get the OVER. When you look at the numbers, the chances of that happening are slim to none.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Under – All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHOENIX) – good shooting team – shooting >=46% on the season against opponent hot shooting team – 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots. This is an 81-37 UNDER System hitting 68.6% since 1996. Both teams are shooting lights out, and even with their recent offensive shooting percentages, neither team is averaging more than 101 PPG. Bet the UNDER 209.5 points.
If you are looking for a NBA handicapper to follow all season, you should look into Jay Todd! Jay has more then double the units of any other NBA handicapper and he has eleven games going tonight! As always, Jay guarantees his package so that if he doesn’t make you money tonight, tomorrow is on him!
Ben Burns has won 11 of his last 17 NBA picks! He has a BLUE CHIP TOTAL going on Friday that you simply can’t afford to miss!
Jeff Alexander is trying to win back to back NBA handicapping contests, here’s his promo for tonight’s NBA package:
The reigning NBA Handicapping Champion is ready to capitalize tonight behind the strongest numbers he has spotted on the pro hardwood this season. Odds makers have calculated a tight game but once you read Jeff’s game analysis you will agree that this one won’t even be close!
November 12, 2008
Today’s free picks come to you courtesy of our top NBA handicappers! Be sure to check out each capper’s page to find out what they have going for premium picks tonight!
Dave Price offers you his free pick on the Pacers/Nets tonight:
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indiana Pacers -1.5
Indiana put an 18-point pounding on the Nets when they visited the Pacers on November 8th and I like the Pacers to prevail with another comfortable win because of its deadly three-point shooting. New Jersye is 11-23 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 14-28 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are also just 5-15 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets have lost 4 of their last 5 and will have to take another setback tonight.
The Black Widow bites hard with a winner on the Celtics/Hawks:
1* on Atlanta Hawks +10.5
The Atlanta Hawks continue to get no respect tonight. All the Hawks have done is win their first six games of the season for a 6-0 record. This is a team looking to get revenge on the Boston Celtics after they were knocked out of the playoffs in a 7th game over the summer. Atlanta is the real deal this year and they are getting great contributions across the board. Al Horford recorded a career-best 27 points and 17 rebounds in a 113-108 win over Chicago on Tuesday. But with guys like Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson leading the way, it?s easy to see how the Hawks have been so dominant to star the season. Atlanta has won the majority of their games away from home, making their undefeated record even more impressive. The Hawks are 4-0 on the road this season where they are limiting their foes to just 89.2 points per game. This kind of defensive effort gives Atlanta a good chance to keep it close, and perhaps pull off the upset tonight over the defending NBA Champs. Take Atlanta and the points.
Overall #1 Handicapper John Martin gives his opinion on the Kings/Clippers Wednesday:
Martin’s Wednesday Free Play:
1 Unit on L.A. Clippers -7
The L.A. Clippers are finally healthy and you will now see this team start to play up to their potential. Marcus Camby and Baron Davis are back on the floor after missing some time early in the season due to injury. It all came together for the Clippers in a 103-92 home win over the Dallas Mavericks in their last game on Sunday. The Clippers have now had a couple days to get ready for tonight’s home game with the Sacramento Kings, who are really banged up right now. After losing to the Pistons 100-92 at home last night, the Kings are now asked to play on back-to-back nights when they travel to L.A. Wednesday. The Kings will be asked to try and be competitive tonight despite playing without 3 of their best players in Kevin Martin, Quincy Douby and Francisco Garcia. This trio makes up the Kings’ best 3 scorers and Sacramento will not be competitive tonight without them. The Kings are 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by 20.0 points/game. Sacramento hasn’t even showed up when they’ve traveled away from Arco Arena. This game will be a blowout from start to finish where a banged-up Kings’ team has no chance of competing against a healthy Clippers’ squad led by Baron Davis. Cash in with the Clippers as the favorite.
Good luck tonight and all of this week!
November 10, 2008
There’s plenty to choose from tonight’s NBA action. The Blazers at the Magic is a match up between two of the hottest teams in the NBA this year. The Magic are 7 point favorites as they have an advantage with their big man in the middle, Dwight Howard. Another good match up is the Raptors at the Celtics. Boston is a big favorite, but the Raptors made some great moves in the off-season and are a very good team in their own right. It also looks like the Miami Heat are over their awful year last year, they are winning games and are a big favorite over the Nets tonight. Be sure to check out all of our free picks and premium packages from our group of winning NBA cappers!
NBA Basketball Odds for 11/10/2008
|Game||Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Mon 11/10||701||Portland Trail Blazers||+7 -105||+265||OVER 191.5 +100|
|04:05 PM||702||Orlando Magic||-7 -105||-285||UNDER 191.5 -110|
|Mon 11/10||703||Oklahoma City Thunder||+11.5 -103||+750||OVER 196.5 -110|
|04:05 PM||704||Indiana Pacers||-11.5 -107||-900||UNDER 196.5 +100|
|Mon 11/10||705||Toronto Raptors||+8.5 -102||+380||OVER 183 +103|
|04:35 PM||706||Boston Celtics||-8.5 -108||-420||UNDER 183 -113|
|Mon 11/10||707||New Jersey Nets||+8.5 -102||+375||OVER 188 +103|
|04:35 PM||708||Miami Heat||-8.5 -108||-415||UNDER 188 -113|
|Mon 11/10||709||Memphis Grizzlies||+11 -102||+675||OVER 196.5 +102|
|06:05 PM||710||Phoenix Suns||-11 -108||-825||UNDER 196.5 -112|
One of our best overall handicappers and one of the best NBA cappers in the business, Doc’s Sports has been tearing his way through our NBA leaderboards this year. Doc had his NBA game of the month last night and look how it turned out!:
6-Unit Play – Totals Game of the Month – #505 Take Dallas/LA Clippers OVER ( 3:30 PM EST , Sunday)
The Clippers offense has been ridiculous but these are two teams that aren’t playing great defense right now and this number is way too low, in our opinion. LA has allowed an average of 103 PPG through six games and Dallas is allowing 97 PPG. This number is very far off and this is one of the early season gifts given from the oddsmakers. LA has faced some very good defensive squads this season but they are facing a middle-of-the-road defense tonight and we feel that they will have their offense clicking for the whole game. They haven’t been that bad overall, but they have gone for major stretches without points and that is why this number has been posted so low.
Tonight Doc has more NBA action and a big play on the Monday Night Football game!
Evan Altemus has a monster play going in Monday Night Football tonight, but he’s also ripping up the NBA with winner after winner each night! Evan nailed the Celtics over the Pistons on Sunday, here’s what you missed out on!
Detroit will take a few games to get adjusted to Allen Iverson being in the line-up. He is a pure scorer but doesn’t play much defense. Iverson even stated that he knows this team focuses on defense, so he will do the best he can on that side of the court. However, his main goal is to shoot the ball and that was apparent in his first game as a Piston. Meanwhile, Boston returns their core from a year ago and has played very well. They were able to control the entire game against Houston the other day because of their focus and defense. The Celtics have won 6 out of their last 8 match-ups with the Pistons as well. Look for Boston’s defense and consistency to be the difference in this game.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Be sure to check out all of our NBA free picks and handicappers and good luck tonight!
November 5, 2008
This is the second part of our series on NBA teams and situational analysis when making NBA sports picks. As discussed in the first installment, our NBA handicapping model focuses heavily on identifying patterns of play.
During the course of an 82-game season, certain clubs take on identifiable traits that will repeat over and over again throughout the course of the year. This in turn can be quite profitable to the astute capper who is able to locate these “trends” and then repeatedly ride them to the bank.
In this week’s report, we look at two clubs that have received much attention from bettors of late, though for very different reasons. We also lend a word of caution, as well as a definitive strategy for making NBA picks on these clubs moving forward.
The first is Washington, perhaps the most surprising team in the NBA, or at least in the Eastern Conference. We actually identified the Wiz in the off-season as a team that would be far better than the dreaded editions we’d seen in year’s past. This assumption panned out well, as we cashed with Washington time and again early in the season.
The Beltway Bunch in fact checks in with the fourth best record in the East at 30-22 SU. Furthermore, they are on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time since 1997 and for just the second time since 1989 (!!!), back when they were still nicknamed the Bullets.
The Wizards have taken care of business in their own conference with an admirable 20-13 SU and 19-12-2 ATS mark. Washington has even stayed afloat without the contributions of Larry Hughes (21.2 PPG, 6.3 RPB, 5.1 APG and No.1 in the NBA with 2.82 SPG), who has been out since mid-January with a wrist injury.
The other team showing up on the public’s radar screen of late is New Jersey. Unlike Washington, though, the Nets got off to a very poor start with the departure of Kenyon Martin to Denver and the off-season knee surgery to Jason Kidd that left him sidelined into December.
Things really took a turn for the worse in early January when Richard Jefferson—their only major scoring threat available with Martin gone and Kidd injured—went down for the season with a wrist injury. When RJ played his last game on January 8, his team was a mirror of their former championship selves with a paltry 12-21 SU record.
But NJ, coincidentally, turned the proverbial corner right about the time Jefferson was injured. In fact, heading into a home date with the Lakers about a week before the All Star Break, New Jersey was on a 7-1 SU run its previous eight games. Even more impressive was the wallet stuffing 13-3-1 ATS streak the Nets had compiled in their previous seventeen tilts.
A big reason for their turnaround was the rejuvenated play of Vince Carter, who evidently needed a change of scenery to motivate him. Apparently millions of dollars does not have the same appeal as it used to.
In any event, the basketball betting public has not hesitated one bit in jumping on the Nets bandwagon of late, just as they are hoping the Wizards have another magical ATS run to cook up. That said, there is without question a rhyme and reason to each of these clubs pointspread success. Namely, both teams have been quite the bully vs. lower echelon opponents, yet have failed miserably when asked to step up in class.
Consider that Washington is a solid 14-8 ATS vs. teams with a losing record, but a meager 9-17 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. An identical pattern emerges with Jason Kidd and Company. That is, the Nets are a bookie-busting 16-7 ATS vs. teams with a sub .500 record, but just 12-15 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
The moral of the story is simple. Before laying down your hard earned green on the Wizards or Nets moving forward, we strongly advise taking a look at the caliber of opponent they will be facing.
November 5, 2008
LeBron James might one day be immortalized as one of the NBA’s greatest players, perhaps even tabbed as the best of all time if he continues to progress at such a mesmerizing rate.
His jaw dropping talent fills the seats on a nightly basis and makes life very easy for the league’s marketing brass. The torch has effectively been passed from Jordan to Shaq and now to James to lead the NBA into the next decade.
But all this hype makes too many bettors too reliant on “King James” to deliver the green. This same exact phenomenon emerged when Michael Jordan returned to the Wizards. None of this is lost on those “evil doers” that we gamblers more commonly refer to as the oddsmakers who create the NBA point spreads.
In fact, those in charge of setting lines for Vegas and the offshore community have to adjust to the reality that a lot of bettors will almost blindly put their faith in the Cavs because of No. 23. (The irony that James wears the same number as the man whose mere name whipped up inflated point spreads like a Cusinart is not lost on us.) This in turn means that in certain situations, Cleveland shoulders inflated lines. Call it the LeBron Effect.
Case in point – Cleveland was a mere 1-point underdog the other night at Milwaukee. This was a Cavaliers team mind you that was in the midst of 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump. This slump was quite a welcome change for oddsmakers after the team started the season 9-2 both SU and ATS. Few scenarios could be more nightmarish for setting NBA point spreads from an oddsmakers’ perspective than the team with the NBA’s highest profile star cashing tickets like an ATM.
(Actually one scenario might top it – namely, NFL favorites hitting nearly 60% on the season with just a few weeks remaining. Oh wait, that is practically happening this year. That is a whole entire other column and one we are not sure we are capable of addressing without regurgitating our lunch since we are primarily underdog players in the NFL.)
But I digress. Cleveland’s latest slump did not even take into account Milwaukee’s 8-1 ATS mark vs. the East or the Cavaliers struggles on the road.
Last season, Cleveland finished just 13-28 SU and 16-24-1 ATS on the trail. This record was even less impressive when you consider they went 8-4 ATS as a road favorite but a disastrous 8-20-1 ATS as a road dog.
In other words, Cleveland was quite a good bully away from Quicken Loans Arena (formerly Gund), beating lower echelon foes but getting smacked around by better competition.
If the hallmark of all good teams really is the ability to win on the road than Cleveland still has a ways to go because nothing has changed this year. Consider that they entered Milwaukee 4-1 ATS as a road favorite but a perfect 0-4 ATS as a road dog. The latter record dropped to 0-5 against the NBA point spread after they fell to the Bucks (our NBA Favorite of the Month) 111-106 as a 1-point road dog.
James delivered a NBA season-high 52-points but it was not enough. And that really is our point. James can only do so much. He is a gifted player but don’t place your hard earned money on him like a blind disciple. There was no reason on earth for the Bucks to have been anything less than a standard home court favorite (4-5 points or so) against Cleveland. Actually, there was a very good reason. Call it the LeBron Effect.
November 5, 2008
To run, or not to run? That is the big question for the NBA Finals as Miami battles Dallas and you are trying to make your NBA playoffs picks. Actually the key will be who controls the tempo? Detroit had an explosive offense all season, then blew away the Cavaliers in their first two playoff games. Suddenly, the Cavs completely slowed down the pace, controlling the tempo, and winning 3 in a row over the stunned Pistons. The Heat also controlled the pace in slowing down Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals.
A younger and deep Dallas lineup no doubt will want to run while Miami will try and slow the tempo. Dallas has been unique and unpredictable in the postseason with respect to tempo. Against San Antonio, the Mavs played the Spurs’ pace in Game 1, a slow, methodical tempo won by San Antonio 87-85. However, the Mavs scrapped that style and went up tempo the rest of the series, winning 3 in a row for those taking them with their NBA picks, in fact, by running.
Dallas continued to play up tempo in Game 1 against Phoenix, but lost at home 121-118. So what did Dallas do? Scrapped that plan and played defense the next five games, winning four of them. After scoring 121 in that first game, the Suns scored 98, 88, 106, 101 and 93 the rest of the series. After missing most of Game 1 against Phoenix, Josh Howard averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds in the final five games. The Mavs went 4-1 with him.
So what does Dallas and Miami do now? Game 1 may have told us a lot. It makes sense for Dallas to run, not only because they are younger, but because Miami is a terrific high percentage shooting team, almost solely from the low post, along with Dwyane Wade’s drives. Dallas is less likely to keep Miami from shooting well (just ask the Pistons, who had no answer for Shaq or Wade). But a halfcourt pace favors the Heat. After all, Shaq is 34-years old and Alonzo Mourning is a 36-year-old veteran. And we saw a low-scoring 90-80 affair in Game 1, and perhaps, a bit surprisingly, a Dallas victory.
For Dallas to continue to be successful against the Heat, that could mean turning often to a group that includes Dirk Nowitzki in the middle, forcing O’Neal to defend a fellow seven-footer who has the quickness and shooting prowess of a guard. Dwyane Wade said defending the Mavericks in that scenario would become the ultimate team challenge. On the other side of the ledger, Dallas will have to decide whether or not to double team O’Neal. In the regular season, the Suns had success double-teaming Shaq with smaller players at all times and daring the Heat to beat them with ball movement. Miami has been much better in the postseason against that type of defense.
Oddly, one game really turned around Miami’s season: a 112-76 loss to the Mavericks. Afterwards, Gary Payton and Udonis Haslem addressed the Heat players. “There’s nothing worse than being out on the court knowing that your teammates don’t trust you and you don’t trust them,” Haslem said this week. “I don’t think we had 100 percent trust for one another.”
Three days later, they turned things around, as the Heat rallied from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit at home to beat the Pistons. Wade scored the Heat’s final 17 points in that game, and it started a stretch in which the Heat won 15 of 16 games. So now Miami comes full circle, in a sense: To thank the Mavericks for helping to turn things around? Or, to get beat again by the better, younger team?
November 5, 2008
We are down to the Final two! The NBA Finals will see a first time champion, too. The interesting part about this series will be youth versus experience, and tempo. Shaquille O’Neal just turned 34 and his minutes are more limited than at any time in his career. Head coach Pat Riley brings a team into the Finals for the first time since 1994 when he was with the Knicks. He last won as coach in 1988 with the Lakers. Throw in veterans Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning, and Miami is a roster of old stars so when making your NBA picks keep this in mind. Fortunately they have one young star in the remarkable Dwyane Wade. Wade torched a supposedly great Pistons defense, shooting 61.7 percent. And one game he had the flu! Wade averaged 26.7 points, with 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.83 steals and 1.5 blocks against Detroit. Jason Terry and Josh Howard have the quickness to stay with Wade, so that defensive matchup is going to be critical.
Miami is not a good three-point shooting team, but they shot just under 48% from the field, second best in the NBA, and Shaq is still a force in the low post (just like the Pistons’ Wallaces). Miami went 2-12 against division leaders during the regular season and lost twice to Dallas, but they are the healthiest they’ve been all season. Miami is only 25-24 SU on the road and 4-17 SU, 9-12 ATS as an underdog.
While Miami is full of old pros, Dallas is a relatively young team, with speed and quickness as an edge. The Dallas defense will be tested by Wade’s quickness and Shaq’s girth in the middle. Expect to see a rotation on Shaq, led by 280-pound Dallas Center DeSagana Diop. Dallas is 40-9 SU, 26-22 ATS at home, and 31-18 SU on the road. Dallas is even 9-8 SU, 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Dallas hammered Miami twice this season and that could factor into our NBA picks for the finals. In the first meeting, Dallas won 103-90 at Miami with Shaq sitting out. Dallas shot 50% that game, while Wade shot 7-of-19 and was just 0-for-3 from long range. In the second meeting, Dallas won 112-76 at home shooting 56%! Shaq played that game, getting 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, but Wade was 6-of-13 for 16 points. DeSagana Diop played 12 minutes and picked up 4 fouls, though it didn’t matter as Dallas nailed 11-of-16 three-pointers. Diop played 12 minutes in the first meeting and picked up 3 fouls and 2 rebounds.
Tempo will be huge. Miami slowed the pace down against Detroit and dominated, playing great defense and still shooting for a high percentage. Dallas is younger with great quickness, so they will look to go uptempo, as they did during the regular season against Miami, scoring 103 and 112 points. Miami will do everything possible to not go uptempo.
If this series comes down to three-point shooting, Dallas has a significant edge. Miami is not strong from long range, while Dallas ranked #8 shooting 37 percent from long range. In fact, in the two meetings this season, Dallas made 19-of-34 three pointers, while Miami made 2-of-20 treys!
Dallas is 25-0 this season when forward Josh Howard scores at least 20 points. “We’re fearless, never going to back down no matter what the score is,” said Howard. Hang on, this should be an entertaining series, not only on the court, but on the clipboards with Avery Johnson and Pat Riley matching chess moves.
November 5, 2008
The 2005-2006 Pistons are on their way to proving there is a difference between being a good regular season team and a good postseason team. As they drop both games in Miami and fall into a 3-1 series deficit, the overwhelming favorites to repeat in the Eastern Conference could be on their way out and you need to consider this when making your NBA betting picks.
As crazy as this sounds, they might be too team oriented. The same thing that propelled them to greatness in the regular season could be the thing that’s holding them back in the playoffs. What are they missing? If you look at every Championship team, they have that go-to guy who puts their team on their back in the clutch.
This go-to guy demands so much attention that defensive game plans are built around stopping this one player, which leaves big holes for the other players to step up. The Pistons don’t have this guy and remember that when making your NBA picks.
Why did Cleveland nearly beat Detroit, despite being an inferior team? Lebron James. There was no secret as to where the ball was going to be in Cleveland’s offense and now, in the Miami series, it’s Lebron’s buddy, Dwayne Wade, taking over in key situations. Even with the great “teams” of the past, there was no discrepancy as to which player would take the shots to finish off an opponent, or when they got behind, or in a close game down the stretch.
The 1982-84 Celtics are known as one of the great “teams”. They started, Parish, Bird, Maxwell, Johnson, and Henderson and brought McHale off the bench, but there was no question that Larry Bird would take or create every big shot.
Chauncey Billups appears to be the closest thing the Pistons have to a clutch player, finishing 5th in the MVP balloting this season. However, he does not go to the basket well, and defenders can crowd him knowing that he’s going to settle for jumpers. It’s plain to see that Lebron and Wade are far superior as go-to type players so early in their careers and their ability to go to the hole allows them to get better opportunities as defenders have to respect their ability to drive. If you look at the Pistons, some might say that Rip Hamilton should be taking the big shots. The problem is, he can’t create any shots for himself. He is a catch and shoot player who depends on his teammates to free him with screens. If you want to know the truth, it’s Tayshaun Prince who has the makings of being the go-to guy this Pistons team desperately needs. He usually poses matchup problems for teams because if you guard him small to take away his quickness, he can post you and use his size and length, but if you try to guard him with a bigger player, he’ll blow right by you.
I believe this Pistons team is going to struggle in the postseason unless they can foster Prince into this role.
You might be thinking isn’t this the same Pistons team who won the Championship a couple years ago. Yes it is, however, the Eastern Conference was as weak as it’s ever been and the Lakers were a soap opera otherwise they would have dismantled them. Lebron James, and Dwayne Wade were rookies then, and now they are emerging as the best players in the NBA, really elevating the level of play in the Eastern Conference as well as the NBA as a whole.
As more and more teams are improving in the NBA, all I can say is, the Pistons better find a go-to guy or they’ll be going home earlier and earlier.
November 5, 2008
This is the third installment of our continuing series on NBA teams and situational analysis in order to beat the NBA betting odds. As noted in the first two parts of the series, we pay close attention to situational factors when handicapping the NBA. In fact, it is the quintessential component of our NBA handicapping methodology.
In this week’s report, we break down the Cleveland Cavaliers. Lebron James and Company epitomize a dynamic we see often with talented young teams in the NBA. That is, they thrive in front of their home fans but are unable to breakthrough with any sort of meaningful success on the road.
The Cavs are actually a robust 21-6 SU and 16-11 ATS at Gund Arena. Away from Gund, however, CLE is just 10-18 SU and 12-15-1 ATS. Their road mark on the surface might seem like an improvement. After all, the Cavs are only two wins shy of matching last year’s output of 12-29 SU when away. But a closer look reveals Cleveland has a long ways to go in the hostile environs of other teams’ arenas, especially in terms of beating the NBA betting odds.
Consider that the Cavaliers are a back breaking 2-9 ATS when visiting teams with a winning record. Contrast that dismalness with the Cavs impressive 9-3 ATS mark hosting teams with a winning record. From those numbers alone it is pretty easy to glean just how important playing in their own building is to the Cavalier’s success.
To expand upon this point further, note that nine of Cleveland’s ten road wins have come vs. teams who shouldered a losing record at the time. This includes two wins at the woeful 10-45 (SU) Atlanta Hawks and two more wins at the equally woeful 11-42 (SU) Charlotte Bobcats. Their other road win in the East came at 29-28 (SU) Boston, who only recently climbed above the .500 mark. Free Basketball Picks
Interestingly enough, Cleveland’s other five wins came against Western Conference foes. But there is an enormous caveat to consider and that is who those five Western foes were. Three of these wins came against the 16-39 (SU) Golden State Warriors, 22-32 (SU) Portland Trailblazers and 19-37 (SU) Utah Jazz. In all three contests, CLE was actually priced as a road favorite in terms of the NBA betting odds. Aside from New Orleans, these are the only three cupcakes in the Western Conference.
The Cavaliers only decent road wins of the season came way back in early December at Memphis and then at Denver. But really and truly, the Grizzlies had yet to find their groove at the time and the Nuggets had been underachieving up until that point and actually fired their coach shortly thereafter. Setting aside subjectivity, Memphis is the only team Cleveland has beat on the road with a winning record this year.
To put this dynamic in better perspective, let’s also look at the Western Conference teams Cleveland has lost to on the road. We are referring to setbacks at Minnesota, at Sacramento, at Seattle, at Los Angeles Lakers, at San Antonio, at Phoenix, and at Los Angeles Clippers. And since our primary concern is with pointspread results, note that Cleveland was a picture perfect 0-7 ATS in these seven respective tilts.
If you throw out the loss against the Clippers, who have a losing record, the Cavaliers are a hardly impressive 1-6 both SU and ATS on the road when facing Western Conference teams with a winning record. CLE is additionally 0-2 SU at Miami and 0-1 SU at Detroit this year. So save perhaps Memphis, CLE really has not beaten an elite team on the road all season.
The flip side is that Paul Silas’ bunch is a profitable 10-6 ATS when visiting teams (West or East) that have lost more games than they have won. But that has as much to do with facing cream puffs such as the Bobcats (twice), Hawks (twice) and a host of other “Leastern Conference” foes than any sort of steady improvement by Cleveland away from Gund.
In more specific terms, the Cavaliers have taken advantage of playing a number of atrocious teams in their own conference and have been lucky enough to face the few patsies in the West. Another great factual gauge of this is that Cleveland is 7-3 ATS when priced as a road favorite, but just 5-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In the final analysis, our advice is to be extra cautious trying to beat the NBA betting odds by taking Cleveland away from Gund. Or, better yet perhaps is to think twice before backing the Cavs on the road vs. upper echelon foes. King James might be able to work miracles on the basketball court, but his team has a long ways to go before it can be trusted to part the “green” sea with regularity on the rough and tumble NBA trail.
Get more information at Vegas scores and odds.
November 5, 2008
As most of you know by now, we focus heavily on situational analysis in our capping when trying to beat the Las Vegas NBA odds. Perhaps more so than any other sport, NBA teams are prone to certain patterns of play due to the long and grueling, topsy-turvy season.
We always ask questions such as:
Has a team shown a propensity to carry tired legs in the second of back-to-back nights? Has a team been complacent versus weaker foes, but focused when playing upper echelon opponents?
Has a team been ripe for a letdown after an upset win? Conversely, has a team shown the ability to turnaround with a huge effort after an embarrassing loss?
These are just a few of the many situational factors we investigate when breaking down a game against the Las Vegas NBA odds. And trust us, correctly answering these sorts of questions serves as a proverbial treasure chest for the astute capper. There is no getting around the fact that there are clear patterns of play associated with certain teams.
Looking at our questions above, we find it all too common, for example, to witness a club fall flat on its’ face after a big upset win, but turnaround with a huge effort after a bad loss. As it pertains to this season, the Orlando Magic fall into this category.
That is, the Mousketeers are the epitome of a team susceptible to the highs and lows of the NBA season depending on the outcome of their previous game. Consider that Orlando is an ultra complacent 7-17-1 against the spread (ATS) after an outright win, but particularly resilient at 14-6-1 ATS after an outright loss. Along these lines, the Magic are also a tragic 4-13 ATS off a straight up (SU) home win this year.
These types of situational patterns are all over the place if you look hard enough. We’ll be back next week with another glaring team trend to pad your pockets.