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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Boston Celtics

Odds to Win 2010-11 NBA Finals: The Boston Celtics are currently listed at +900 (9 to 1) to win the NBA Finals this season at BetUS. These are the third best odds for any team in the league, behind only the defending champion LA Lakers (+300) and the newly-juiced Miami Heat (+170). What this means is that oddsmakers give Boston about a 10% chance of winning the NBA Finals in the 2010-11 season.

Odds to Win the East: Looking at the latest NBA betting odds from Sportsbook.com, Boston is listed at +550 (5.5 to 1) to win the East in the upcoming season, in other words, they have approximately a 15% chance to win the conference. Both the Heat (-175) and the Magic (+450) are being given a better chance at winning the East, which is surprising seeing that the Magic’s odds for winning the NBA championship (+1000) are slightly worse than the Celtic’s.

Suggestion: These aren’t great numbers for a squad that is getting older and more open to health issues.

Strengths: Boston has a good core of veterans coming back with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett. These players are all nearing the end of their careers, but they all have the skills to be successful. Point guard Rajon Rondo is the new face of the organization. He brings the energy on both sides of the ball. Rondo is not a great shooter, but is a remarkable defender and can be very tough for opponents to contain in transition.

The Celtics signed both Jermaine and Shaquille O’Neal in the offseason to help fill the void in the middle left by Rasheed Wallace’s retirement, as well as the lingering injury to Kendrick Perkins, who is probably going to miss the first several months of the season. Boston ended up 29th in the league in rebounding last year, but the addition of Jermaine and Shaq, who both averaged just under 7 boards per game last year, should give the team a boost in that area.

Weaknesses: Obviously this team isn’t getting any younger. They proved last year that their age was not as big of a factor as everyone was led to believe, however, they were able to avert key injuries at crucial points in their season, something that will be increasingly tough to do as their starters continue to age.

When centers in the NBA decline, they tend to decline much faster than smaller players. Adding both O’Neals to the roster looks good on paper, but how effective they can be defensively in the paint against the league’s top big men is something to keep an eye on.

Picks: There’s no grounds to imagine that Boston won’t be a serious challenger again in the Eastern Conference. There are injury risks for every team in the league. Boston might have an increased risk in that area, but they still have a strong enough core to make the postseason, where, if healthy, they will again be dangerous.

I have Boston finishing 1st in the division, but I have my questions about them getting by potentially Miami and Orlando to win the East. A healthy Celtics squad would be easier to like in the playoffs, but it is improbable we will see the Celtics in full force come April.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Cleveland Cavs

Championship Odds: Nothing astonishing to report here. The Cavs were one of the tops to win the title last season, but once LeBron jumped ship you recognized their odds would nose dive. Viewing the current NBA odds over at BetUS, Cleveland is listed a +10,000 ($100 bet wins $10,000) to win the championship.

Eastern Conference Odds: Cleveland isn’t expected to be the worst team in the East, but they aren’t going to be great either. They are currently listed at +6,000 to win the East.

Recommendation: There’s little to no value on either of the above plays. The Cavs will being the long process of rebuilding a team after a superstar bolts. Don’t throw away even a little of your money on a bet with such a little chance of paying off.

Strengths: Cleveland does have some above-average size on the floor and some above-average offensive players. Antwan Jamison and Mo Williams will be the Cav’s main sources of offense, but they will need someone like J.J. Hickson or Anthony Parker to step in and be a leading contributor. Hickson is a power forward with a lot of promise in the NBA this season and I can easily see him stepping up to lead this team in scoring.

Williams, Parker, and Jamison are all good perimeter shooters. When these guys are hitting, they will keep the Cavs in a lot of contests they might not otherwise be in.

Weaknesses: Cleveland simply doesn’t have a superstar. Jamison doesn’t create his own looks and while Williams is a good-scoring point guard, he doesn’t have the ability to carry this offense.

Beyond center Anderson Varejo and shooting guard Anthony Parker, this team is not great defensively. They have some operational players coming off of the bench, but no one I would consider an impact player.

Predictions: The post-Lebron James Cleveland Cavaliers will not be a terrible team, but they won’t be very good either. It will be trying for Cleveland fans to see, not because they have horrible players, but because they have a pretty good roster, there’s just too much missing defensively and it’s hard to see anyone on the current roster stepping up enough offensively to fill the void left by James.

I’m projecting Cleveland at 5th place in the division. They certainly do not look like a serious contender on paper and it is going to take a process for them to re-establish an identity after losing LeBron.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Detroit Pistons

Odds to Win 2010-11 NBA Finals: The Detroit Pistons are still trying to find that winning formula that made them one of the most successful in the league from 2002 to 2008. So far the pieces have not been coming together, but poor health and lack of cap space are somewhat to blame. Checking the live NBA odds, Detroit is one of the least probable teams to win the NBA title for the this season, listed at +10,000.

Odds to Win the East: At this time the Pistons are not likely to be in the postseason, and their odds to win the conference indicate that. BetUS lists Detroit’s odds to win the East this year at just +5,000.

Suggestion: Anticipate Detroit to be better than last year, just don’t expect anything significant. A wager on them to win the conference or the NBA Finals is not recommended. There may be some strong value on the Pistons this season against the spread, particularly as large underdogs early in the year. Also keep an eye on the over/under in Piston games, they are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league, suggesting they are a strong team to look at for winning “under” plays.

Strengths: Detroit has some very good one-on-one scorers. Richard Hamilton and Charlie Villanueva are good at getting to the basket with the ball in their hands, while Tayshaun Prince’s length helps him down low.

I believe re-signing Ben Wallace to the Pistons was a good decision. He’s a fan favorite and still an intimidating presence at the five.

I also like the Piston’s depth with Ben Gordon and Will Bynum coming off of the bench. Their pick up of Tracy McGrady is sketchy, depending on how he is utilized, but he could be an effective passer and mid-range shooter for as long as his health will hold up.

Weaknesses: This is a team with some nice talent, but one that lacks a superstar. They have multiple guys that will get their 15-20 points per night, but it’s hard to see anyone that can break out and dominate a game.

Wallace should help the defense but, as a unit, this team has lacked defensive intensity. It will be first-year head coach John Kuester’s toughest job to figure out how the Pistons are going to keep teams from putting up points all over them. Injuries and foul trouble are also prospective failings for this team.

Picks: Detroit certainly isn’t where they’d like to be, but they’ll still field a relatively competitive team. As long as they stay healthy they should always have a solid five players on the court, however, their lack of a legitimate scorer is a big worry.

I’ve got the Pistons ending up 4th in the division. This is a division that has transformed dramatically in a short period of time. Detroit simply doesn’t quite have the personnel to beat out Chicago, the Bucks, or Indiana for one of the top 3 spots.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Indiana Pacers

Odds to Win 2010-11 NBA Finals: Indiana did not do much this offseason to anticipate much of an improvement in their overall win total. Their odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Finals surely reflect that. At +12,000 the Pacers are among the least promising squads in the league to win the Title.

Eastern Conference Odds: Checking the live NBA lines over at Bookmaker, the Pacers have the second-worst probability of winning the East this year at +8,000 (only Toronto at +15,000 has worse odds). This does not inevitably translate they are the second-worst team in the East, but being in a pretty talented Central, as well as a sound conference overall, makes it tough to see the Pacers rising above their opponents.

Over/Under Wins: Bodog lists Indiana’s over/under for victories at 33.5, which is a very slim improvement over their 32 victories last season. As I observed, Indy didn’t do much this offseason, so why should they be expected to win many more games than they did a year ago?

Suggestion: I have to urge laying off of the Pacers for their NBA Title and Eastern Conference odds. They would give you a exceptional payoff if one of them were to hit, but the likelihood of that is so little I think it would be a waste of money. As for the season win projections, I would lean toward more than 33.5. The Pacers did get hit with a lot of health issues last season and a small improvement would not be surprising.

Strengths: Danny Granger is a major force and as long as he stays on the court Indiana will be respectable. Darren Collison should be a nice sidekick to Granger, giving the Pacers a solid one-two punch.

The Pacers should be strong defensively, at least at the point of attack. Collison, Brandon Rush, and Tyler Hansbrough should all be above-average defenders, while Granger and center Roy Hibbert are good enough to finish out what could be a really effective defensive core.

Weaknesses: Despite what looks to be a good defensive team, the Pacers will struggle to rebound against just about every team in the league. The Pacers were the 2nd-worst rebounding team in the NBA last season and they dealt away their top rebounder (Troy Murphy). Hansbrough could help cushion Murphy’s departure, but even with a good season out of him you can expect to see the Pacers near the basement of the league in boards again this season.

Predictions: Granger is a great player and I like Collison as their second option. After those two, however, there is a major decline in ability. Indiana will probably end up somewhere contending for a playoff spot in the East, but ultimately I think they’ll be on the outside looking in.

I predict Indiana to finish 3rd in the Central below both the Bulls and the Bucks. They’ll contend with the Cavs and Detroit for the third spot. While I think they are the best of those three squads, I don’t think this team is good enough to contend with the top of the division.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Milwaukee Bucks

Odds to Win NBA Title: The Milwaukee Bucks were one of the most surprising of the 2009-10 NBA season.  As a result, their odds to win the NBA Finals have seen a dramatic shift.  At +4,000 to win the title, the Bucks are still an underdog, but have been given a better chance than more than a dozen other NBA franchises this season.

Odds to Win the East: Checking the current NBA lines over at BetUS, Milwaukee is listed at +2,500 to win the Eastern Conference.  In a conference with Atlanta, the Celtics, Chicago, the Heat, and the Magic, this isn’t stunning.

Total Win Projection: Bodog lists the Bucks’ over/under for wins at 45.5.  Last year Milwaukee was 46-36, so odds makers plan on them to finish around the same this season.  This is a team that has made some good moves in the off-season, so I am a little shocked that their projected win total comes in almost the same as to what they were able to win last year.

Suggestion: The Bucks have made an impressive 180 from two seasons ago to now, but winning the Finals or the Eastern Conference is a difficult task.  I see little value in taking either of those future wagers.  What I do like is the “over” 45.5 for the Bucks’ season victories.  As I mentioned, they won 46 last season and I think they are better no.  I’m planning them for 48-52 wins.

Strengths: Milwaukee has a really strong set of starters and, with some of the moves they made in the summer, they now have some excellent depth as well.  Corey Maggette and Andrew Bogut will contribute a lot of the firepower for this squad, and look for John Salmons and Brandon Jennings to continue to come forth as superstars.

Scott Skiles is a still a good fit for this squad, maybe even better now that they’ve added some better bench players.  He got this team to play hard on defense all year and he’s quick to go to the bench whenever it’s necessary.  Changing players last year ran the risk of a big decline in production, which is exactly why Milwaukee was so active in the summer, signing Keyon Dooling, Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, and Earl Boykins, plus drafting Larry Sanders.

Weaknesses: The greatest concern for me with the Bucks is whether or not their big stars can remain on the court.  Bogut’s elbow is a worry and Maggette has a history of being injured often.  They will also need to be able to keep up the intensity they had last season on defense.  Their effort on the defensive end is a big reason why they were winning.  Finally, Milwaukee doesn’t have a great option as a perimeter threat.  Jennings, Salmons, and Carlos Delfino are respectable from beyond the arc, but I wouldn’t think of them sharp shooters.

Predictions: Milwaukee will be difficult this year.  As long as they can keep their energy up like they managed last season, I can’t see them not making the playoffs.  How far they can go will be depend on injuries and how well the team chemistry gels with so many new players.

I am positioning the Bucks at 2nd in the division, just behind the Chicago Bulls, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if the Bucks ended up winning the division.  They’ve added some much-needed bench help and I do expect them to improve on last season’s win total.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Chicago Bulls

NBA Title Odds: Chicago made some significant moves in the offseason and linemakers have taken notice.  Checking the latest NBA lines Chicago is marked at +1,400 to win the 2010-11 NBA Finals.  The Bulls surely aren’t the top choice to win it all, but these odds suggest that it is very probable that Chicago will end up in the playoffs again this year, where just about anything is capable of occurring.

Eastern Conference Odds: There are three squads (Heat, Orlando, and Celtics) listed in front of the Bulls in terms of who the oddsmakers think will win the Eastern Conference this season.  It makes it a lot harder to gauge a squad that was already pretty good when they bring in new players, but at +800 to win the East, it looks like the Bulls are expected to be improved.

Recommendation: The Bulls fall right into that domain where they are a good team with the potential to be exceptional.  I believe there’s value, especially at 8 to 1 odds to win the conference.  They did not land Wade or Lebron, but the Bulls will be under the radar this year and could surprise some of the bigger names in the conference.

Strengths: The Bulls have a lot of team quickness and some strong depth in the areas where they want it.  Derrick Rose is a nightmare to stop, while Luol Deng and the newly-signed Carlos Boozer are brilliant second and third choices to put up points.  Center Joakim Noah might not be the best offensive center, but his defense and rebounding ability make him a important compliment to the rest of this squad.  The Bulls also brought in Kyle Korver in the offseason to come off of the bench.  He will add a much-needed outside threat to the Chicago attack.

Tom Thibodeau has superseded Vinny Del Negro as the Bulls head coach, which should bolster the team’s defense, or at least their defensive scheme.  It will be interesting to see how Thibodeau utilizes his many offensive weapons in his first full season as a head coach in the league.

Weaknesses: Beyond Korver the Bulls don’t have much in terms of outside shooters.  Consider this:  even with Korver, if everyone on the Bulls’ team matches their 3-point marks from last season, they’d finish with a total of 245 3-pointers on the season.  That would still put them nearly 100 3-pointers down from the next worst team.

Predictions: For all of the dysfunction the Bulls have been through over the past few season, they are still able to put together decent years.  Their speed and aggressiveness make them a tough match up for any team, however, their bad long-range shooting could ultimately be what sends them packing in the postseason.

I like the Bulls to finish 1st in the division.  I don’t think they are quite able to jump the Heat, Magic, or Celtics to reach the Finals, but they surely appear to be going in the right direction to do so in the near future.

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2010-11 NBA Predicitons: Charlotte Bobcats

Odds to Win the NBA Championship: The odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Championship have the Bobcats listed at +6,500. Those are stunning when you realize that Charlotte was one of the most over-achieving teams in the NBA last season. With that being considered, +6,500 doesn’t really stack up against the other teams in the Southeast. The Wizards (+6,000), Hawks (+3,000), Magic (+1,000), and Miami (+170) all have a lot better odds.

Eastern Conference Odds: According to the NBA odds over at BetUS, Charlotte is +4,000 to take home the Eastern Conference Championship. Again, this number is the worst in their division. Charlotte lost some talent last season and their division has improved, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Over/Under Win Projections: Sportsbook.com offers Charlotte’s over/under for victories at 39.5. The Hornets had 44 wins and a postseason berth last season, however, some key roster losses have most experts expecting a slip from Charlotte this year. I have to agree with that assessment.

Recommendation: There is no value in taking Charlotte to win the NBA Finals or the East, but their season win total is worth taking a look at. I like the “under” 39.5 wins for the Bobcats this season. They got everything they could out of their roster last year to get to 44 wins and they have a lot less to work with this year.

Strengths: Defense and coaching are the two areas where Charlotte is solid. They were first in the league in defensive efficiency last season and should continue to keep opposing teams from scoring easy points in the lane. Last year they forced more perimeter shots than any other squad in the NBA, and it worked for them.

I don’t believe Larry Brown is doing the Bobcats any favors in terms of his personnel choices. What he does do, maybe better than anyone else in the profession, is get the most out of the players he has.

Weaknesses: The big question for Charlotte is where they are going to find their offense. Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, and Tyrus Thomas are all above-average on the offensive end of the floor, but the rest of the team is well below average.

The Bobcats also have one of the least talented benches in the NBA. D.J. Augustin and Boris Diaw should be alright as reserves, but the rest of the Bobcat depth chart is severely lacking talent.

Predictions: I anticipate the Bobcats to head in the wrong direction this year. It’s hard seeing them win more than 30-35 times, meaning there’s little to no chance they return to the playoffs for the second year in a row. I’m not sure what direction they are trying to head in, but they have a lot of work to do.

I’m projecting Charlotte to finish in fourth place in the division. The top three in the Southeast (Miami, Magic, and Atlanta) are a lot better. Charlotte won’t be in the playoffs this year and will be duking it out with Washington finishing out of the basement of the Southeast.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Washington Wizards

Odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Title: Washington is starting to rebuild, nevertheless, taking John Wall with the first pick in the NBA Draft this year has the odds of a Wizards title fairly upbeat at +6,000. This is incredibly improbable, of course, but there are a lot of squads with worse odds entering the 2010-11 season.

Odds to Win the East: Viewing the most up to date NBA lines, Washington is at +3,000 to win the Eastern Conference this season. Once Again, better odds than several franchises in the conference, but still far from anything to get crazy about for Washington fans.

Season Win Total: Bookmaker lists Washington’s over/under for victories at 32.5. The Wizards posted 26 wins last season, so linesmakers are expecting Wall to make a direct positive impact on the team. They’ll also have Gilbert Arenas back in the lineup, so it’s not a shock to see a their win projection set a bit higher than what they were able to accomplish last season.

Suggestion: Even though the Wizards made some moves in the right direction, I think 33+ victories is very optimistic for this team. I see them ending the year similar to last year with 25-30 victories. There’s no value in taking Washington to win the Championship or the conference as a futures bet.

Strengths: Quickness in the backcourt will be a strength for Washington this season. Wall and Arenas are among the quickest players at their position, making them a threat to slash to the hoop against most defenders in the league.

John Wall is the player that the Wizards are going to be constructed around from this point forward. He’s the best thing they have going for them with his speed and raw talent. If he can improve his shooting and stay driven on defense he will be a super star in the nation’s capital.

Weaknesses: Washington has the ability, but will be questionable on defense if head coach Flip Saunders can’t keep them motivated. Intensity is not something that comes to mind when you think of Washington. That has to change if the Wizards want to have success at all with their current roster.

The Wizards are also missing leadership. They don’t have a savvy veteran to bring the squad together. The desire, of course, is that Wall will step into that role, but that’s demanding a lot from a first year player, let alone a 20 year old one.

Picks: I do imagine the Wizards are heading in the right direction. They didn’t go on a shopping spree in the offseason, saving some much needed cap room for coming years. As I’ve said, Wall is the future here, build around him, it’s not going to happen over night and there’s no need to waste money trying.

Let the rebuilding start. I’ve got Washington at fifth place in the Southeast, though they’ll likely compete with the Charlotte Bobcats. A trip to the postseason this year isn’t going to happen. Their division is too tough with the Heat, the Magic, and the Hawks. It’s best for them to take their bumps and keep building slowly but smartly.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Atlanta Hawks

Odds to Win the 2010-11 NBA Title: As far as the odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Finals are concerned, the Atlanta Hawks fall somewhere in the middle of the pack in the league.  At +3,000 they are given better odds than over half of the league, but nowhere close to any of the serious challengers.

Eastern Conference Odds: Looking at the current NBA betting odds over at Bodog, Altanta is listed at +2,000 to take down the Eastern Conference, just slightly better than their odds to win the NBA title.  What does this mean?  It means that both situations are unlikely, but if the Hawks do manage to win the East, the team has got a decent shot at winning the whole thing.

Season Win Total: Bodog has the Hawks’ over/under for victories at 46.5.   The Hawks won 53 times this past year.  They are returning basically the same players for this season.  So why the expected strong slip in wins?  The Hawks were seen as one of the luckiest squads in the league last year.  They made it through the season without any of their star players missing much time and many analysts (myself included) feel that last season was as good as it is going to get for Atlanta with the roster they have.

Suggestion: I do think the Hawks will make the playoffs, but I don’t think they’ll get past the first or second round.  Having said that, I’d recommend staying away from betting them to win the conference or the championship.  The oddsmakers correctly adjusted the Hawks’ expected season win total, making it difficult to make a recommendation.  You’d be taking a gamble with the over 46.5 wins, but it’s probably the right pick.  You’ll just have to count on Atlanta’s durability staying strong.

Strengths: Over the last three years, Atlanta has been an above-average team that managed to remain healthy.  Joe Johnson is outstanding on both sides of the court.  He’s not the kind of player that is going to throw up 50 points, but his ball handling skills, mid-range shooting ability, and effective defense makes him one of the Hawks’ best players.  Power forward Josh Smith is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He scores, rebounds, and blocks shots well. Other starters, Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford are solid role players, and the Hawk’s bench is one of the more gifted in the division.

Weaknesses: Atlanta does not use their good team speed on defense.  They were at the bottom in the league in transition defense last season and unless they’ve made some major alterations that is likely to continue.

Atlanta hasn’t had to deal with any adversity over the last couple of seasons.  I would like to see how they’d perform if Joe Johnson or Josh Smith were sidelined for any significant length of time.  The Hawks seem to coast into the playoffs, but then they have laid an egg.  It’s hard saying exactly what the cause of it is, but the Hawks appear to lack confidence in high pressure situations.

Predictions: Atlanta is still a decent squad, it’s just hard to see them replicating their 2009-10 season.  Barring any significant injuries, Atlanta should still make the postseason rather easily.  Just don’t anticipate them to advance past the second round.

I have Atlanta finishing in 3rd place in the Southeast.  They’ll likely be behind the Magic and the Heat, but should finish easily in front of both the Hornets and the Wizards, and with enough victories to secure a berth in the playoffs.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Orlando Magic

Odds to Win the Finals: The Orlando Magic are one of the top five teams in the league and their betting odds to win the 2010-11 NBA Championship recognize that.  At +1,000 (10 to 1) only the Heat (+170), Lakers (+300), and Boston (+900) have shorter betting odds.  This means that odds makers give the Magic a 9% chance of winning a championship this year.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals: According to the latest NBA odds, the Magic are one of the top two teams most likely to reach the NBA Finals.  At +450, this gives Orlando a predicted 18% chance of representing the East in the Finals.

Over/Under Win Projection: The Magic won 59 times last season, but Sportsbook.com set the Magics’ over/under for wins at 54.5.  The grounds for this drop is most likely due to the Heat bringing LeBron James and Chris Bosh into the division.  The good news is that Orlando is a virtual lock to reach the postseason.  What they do when regular season ends will be the thing to watch.

Recommendation: At 10-1 to win the NBA Finals the Magic are worth looking further into.  They don’t get the hoopla of the Heat, Lakers, or Celtics, but they might be the 2nd best team in the NBA this season.   You don’t get the same value on the Magic with their lines to win the conference, but I don’t think it would be a terrible wager to get them at 4.5-1.  As for their season win total, I’m inclined toward the “over” 54.5 victories.  They’ve won 59 games for two straight seasons and it’s hard to see where a 4-5 game drop would originate.

Strengths: Defense and outside shooting are both significant assets for Orlando.  Dwight Howard is the most daunting defender in the league.  He does a great job of shutting down the inside, freeing up the rest of the team to make mistakes that he can mop up.

Howard’s presence in the paint on the offensive side also opens up a lot of 3-point opportunities for the Magic.  No team shot from beyond the arc more times last season and they haven’t made any significant moves that would suggest they won’t be prosperous at it again this year.

Weaknesses: The major fear Orlando displayed last year in the playoffs is an inability to create shots, something that’s likely to continue to be a problem this season.  They’ll take shots from outside or feed it to Howard, but if Howard is shut-down offensively (as he was against the Celtics), Orlando doesn’t have anyone to drive and create points or scoring chances on their own.

Predictions: Orlando didn’t do a lot in the offseason because they didn’t need to.  They were where they needed to be last season and should compete for the Eastern Conference crown again this year.  The Heat are thought to be the favorite in the division, but the Magic do have Dwight Howard, and I’ll be interested to see how the “Big Three” deal with an elite post player surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

I’m high on the Orlando Magic this season, but I have to put them at 2nd place in the Southeast Division.  Miami just looks too strong.  What I do expect is for Orlando to easily reach the postseason and make another deep run.

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2010-11 NBA Predictions: Miami Heat

Championship Odds: The Miami Heat are the strong favorites to win the NBA Finals this year, that is, checking the latest odds to win the 2010-11 title at Bodog. Miami is numbered at +170, which means that linesmakers give the Heat a 37% chance of bringing home the title, impressive seeing there are 29 other squads in the NBA and that the next best choice, the LA Lakers, are listed at +300, which translates into a 25% prospect of winning. All of this when most of the current players haven’t played a regular season game together!

Eastern Conference Odds: Checking the current NBA lines, the Heat are (of course) favored to win the East at -175. They are the only team in the conference that you would have to actually bet more cash than you stood to win on a futures bet. Translated into a percentage, oddsmakers are essentially saying that the Heat have a 64% chance of representing the East in the NBA Finals this year. Those are some lofty expectations.

Season Win Projections: Considering all of the hoopla around this squad surpassing the all-time record for regular season victories (72 by the Chicago Bulls), the NBA odds show their under/over for regular season victories this season at a kind of modest 64.5, the highest mark in the NBA and eight more wins than the next highest total (Lakers at 56.5).

My Take: Expectations are high for Miami, which means there isn’t going to be a lot of value in gambling on them to win the NBA Finals or the Eastern Conference. I’d advocate laying off simply because there are too many unknowns. As for the win total, the “over” is appealing enough for me to give it a shot. Between 65-70 wins seems reasonably likely for Miami this year.

Strengths: LeBron James. Dwyane Wade. Chris Bosh. These are three top-tier superstars, all in their prime. All three are exceptional scorers and brilliant defenders. I think James will be even better in a role that doesn’t depend on him as the only option for offense. A lot has been discussed about a slip in output for these guys seeing as there is “only one ball to go around”, but I don’t see it in the same light. The rest of this squad is full with role players that don’t (or at least shouldn’t) have to see the ball much, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bosh and Wade both put up similar scoring marks, while James still sees a lot of points, but a big boost in dimes.

Weaknesses: First, the unrealistic expectations for this team comes at a cost. You get the impression that if the Heat don’t win 70 games and win a title every year for the next five years, they’ve underachieved. That’s a tough place to be in. They’ll need to concentrate on this year just to see if this gelling of three outstanding players can actually succeed.

On the court the biggest fear for the Heat has to be at the five. They are small and really do not have a good choice offensively at center. For the regular season, I think they can get by, but could run into troubles in the playoffs when they have to play consecutive games against a superior big man like Dwight Howard.

Predictions: The Heat will be very, very good. They aren’t being hyped without good reason. This will be an sharp squad and one that certainly has the talent to beat any other team in the NBA on any given night. The key will be how they address the match ups with their non-superstars.

I’m predicting Miami to be 1st in the Southeast Division and to win the Eastern Conference. The Magic are in all probability their biggest threat to winning the East, but in the end their three superstars beats 1 superstar for the Magic, even if it is at a weak position for the Heat. If they do make the Finals, they’ll likely face the Lakers, a team that produces even more match up troubles for them. When push comes to shove, I’d have to take the veteran Lakers in that situation. Whatever happens, it will be fun to watch it all unfold.

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