LeBron Affect on NBA Point Spreads

November 5, 2008

LeBron James might one day be immortalized as one of the NBA’s greatest players, perhaps even tabbed as the best of all time if he continues to progress at such a mesmerizing rate.

His jaw dropping talent fills the seats on a nightly basis and makes life very easy for the league’s marketing brass. The torch has effectively been passed from Jordan to Shaq and now to James to lead the NBA into the next decade.

But all this hype makes too many bettors too reliant on “King James” to deliver the green. This same exact phenomenon emerged when Michael Jordan returned to the Wizards. None of this is lost on those “evil doers” that we gamblers more commonly refer to as the oddsmakers who create the NBA point spreads.

In fact, those in charge of setting lines for Vegas and the offshore community have to adjust to the reality that a lot of bettors will almost blindly put their faith in the Cavs because of No. 23. (The irony that James wears the same number as the man whose mere name whipped up inflated point spreads like a Cusinart is not lost on us.) This in turn means that in certain situations, Cleveland shoulders inflated lines. Call it the LeBron Effect.

Case in point – Cleveland was a mere 1-point underdog the other night at Milwaukee. This was a Cavaliers team mind you that was in the midst of 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump. This slump was quite a welcome change for oddsmakers after the team started the season 9-2 both SU and ATS. Few scenarios could be more nightmarish for setting NBA point spreads from an oddsmakers’ perspective than the team with the NBA’s highest profile star cashing tickets like an ATM.

(Actually one scenario might top it – namely, NFL favorites hitting nearly 60% on the season with just a few weeks remaining. Oh wait, that is practically happening this year. That is a whole entire other column and one we are not sure we are capable of addressing without regurgitating our lunch since we are primarily underdog players in the NFL.)

But I digress. Cleveland’s latest slump did not even take into account Milwaukee’s 8-1 ATS mark vs. the East or the Cavaliers struggles on the road.

Last season, Cleveland finished just 13-28 SU and 16-24-1 ATS on the trail. This record was even less impressive when you consider they went 8-4 ATS as a road favorite but a disastrous 8-20-1 ATS as a road dog.

In other words, Cleveland was quite a good bully away from Quicken Loans Arena (formerly Gund), beating lower echelon foes but getting smacked around by better competition.

If the hallmark of all good teams really is the ability to win on the road than Cleveland still has a ways to go because nothing has changed this year. Consider that they entered Milwaukee 4-1 ATS as a road favorite but a perfect 0-4 ATS as a road dog. The latter record dropped to 0-5 against the NBA point spread after they fell to the Bucks (our NBA Favorite of the Month) 111-106 as a 1-point road dog.

James delivered a NBA season-high 52-points but it was not enough. And that really is our point. James can only do so much. He is a gifted player but don’t place your hard earned money on him like a blind disciple. There was no reason on earth for the Bucks to have been anything less than a standard home court favorite (4-5 points or so) against Cleveland. Actually, there was a very good reason. Call it the LeBron Effect.

Written by admin · Filed Under Basketball Handicapping