NBA Sports Picks Handicapping

November 5, 2008

This is the second part of our series on NBA teams and situational analysis when making NBA sports picks. As discussed in the first installment, our NBA handicapping model focuses heavily on identifying patterns of play.

During the course of an 82-game season, certain clubs take on identifiable traits that will repeat over and over again throughout the course of the year. This in turn can be quite profitable to the astute capper who is able to locate these “trends” and then repeatedly ride them to the bank.

In this week’s report, we look at two clubs that have received much attention from bettors of late, though for very different reasons. We also lend a word of caution, as well as a definitive strategy for making NBA picks on these clubs moving forward.

The first is Washington, perhaps the most surprising team in the NBA, or at least in the Eastern Conference. We actually identified the Wiz in the off-season as a team that would be far better than the dreaded editions we’d seen in year’s past. This assumption panned out well, as we cashed with Washington time and again early in the season.

The Beltway Bunch in fact checks in with the fourth best record in the East at 30-22 SU. Furthermore, they are on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time since 1997 and for just the second time since 1989 (!!!), back when they were still nicknamed the Bullets.

The Wizards have taken care of business in their own conference with an admirable 20-13 SU and 19-12-2 ATS mark. Washington has even stayed afloat without the contributions of Larry Hughes (21.2 PPG, 6.3 RPB, 5.1 APG and No.1 in the NBA with 2.82 SPG), who has been out since mid-January with a wrist injury.

The other team showing up on the public’s radar screen of late is New Jersey. Unlike Washington, though, the Nets got off to a very poor start with the departure of Kenyon Martin to Denver and the off-season knee surgery to Jason Kidd that left him sidelined into December.

Things really took a turn for the worse in early January when Richard Jefferson—their only major scoring threat available with Martin gone and Kidd injured—went down for the season with a wrist injury. When RJ played his last game on January 8, his team was a mirror of their former championship selves with a paltry 12-21 SU record.

But NJ, coincidentally, turned the proverbial corner right about the time Jefferson was injured. In fact, heading into a home date with the Lakers about a week before the All Star Break, New Jersey was on a 7-1 SU run its previous eight games. Even more impressive was the wallet stuffing 13-3-1 ATS streak the Nets had compiled in their previous seventeen tilts.

A big reason for their turnaround was the rejuvenated play of Vince Carter, who evidently needed a change of scenery to motivate him. Apparently millions of dollars does not have the same appeal as it used to.

In any event, the basketball betting public has not hesitated one bit in jumping on the Nets bandwagon of late, just as they are hoping the Wizards have another magical ATS run to cook up. That said, there is without question a rhyme and reason to each of these clubs pointspread success. Namely, both teams have been quite the bully vs. lower echelon opponents, yet have failed miserably when asked to step up in class.

Consider that Washington is a solid 14-8 ATS vs. teams with a losing record, but a meager 9-17 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. An identical pattern emerges with Jason Kidd and Company. That is, the Nets are a bookie-busting 16-7 ATS vs. teams with a sub .500 record, but just 12-15 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

The moral of the story is simple. Before laying down your hard earned green on the Wizards or Nets moving forward, we strongly advise taking a look at the caliber of opponent they will be facing.

Written by admin · Filed Under Basketball Handicapping