At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New England has continuity and cohesion on defense with a unit that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Bill Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 PPG. The offense is trying to put the defense in a position to succeed by running the football, limiting turnovers, and burning time off the clock. The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game which has resulted them in being on offense for just under 35 minutes per game. This is a recipe for lower-scoring games. New England has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. But the Patriots are only generating 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game with this approach which is resulting in just 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Aaron Rodgers is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The Jets' defense remains good after holding the Titans last week to just 300 yards. They lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 44% against opponent dropbacks — and that could spell trouble for the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett. New England ranks third-to-last in the league by allowing a pressure rate on 24% of their dropbacks — and they will be without left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow for tonight’s game. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a victory. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals — and they have played 4 straight Unders against the Patriots. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense adopted the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is deploying a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes. He has emphasized more wide zone run schemes than this offense had used previously — and this seems to have unlocked running back Rhamondre Stevenson who has rushed for 201 yards so far this season. Stevenson ranks eighth in the NFL for rushers with at least 20 carries by generating +3.09 yards after contact — and now he faces a Jets’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed after contact against opposing rushers. The Patriots added Antonio Gibson in the offseason as a change of pace back — and he rushed for 96 yards from 11 carries last week. Pelt is also committing to the run with his personnel choices as they have deployed six or more offensive linemen 26 times this season while running the ball in 25 of those occasions — that leads the league. The offensive line is solid but banged up for this game — but there is depth and run-blocking is easier than pass-blocking. The team also signed Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. He has not thrown an interception this season (knock on wood …). New England has continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 Points-Per-Game. Better play at quarterback from a year ago with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot — remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago. New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a loss at home. They have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 40 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode  — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. This team knows it is under the national spotlight tonight for Thursday Night Football. A big concern is that the defense has not played as well as last season. They rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. They also lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury last week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings against the Jets. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (301) plus the points versus the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.