At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (757) and the Utah State Aggies (758). THE SITUATION: Boise State (15-10) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in an 86-80 upset loss in overtime against UNLV as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Utah State (22-3) has won seven games in a row after their 99-75 victory against Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos held the Runnin’ Rebels to 47.8% shooting on Friday, which happened to be the best defensive effort in their last four contests. They rank ninth in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Boise State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have played ten straight Overs in a row, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Broncos rank 15th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they then rank 17th in Division I by converting on 77.8% of their shots at the charity stripe. I love investing in Overs with teams who score points when the clock is stopped. On the road, Boise State is scoring +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But they are also surrendering +3.4 points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. Their perimeter defense on the road is abysmal, as their opponents are nailing 39.1% of their shots from behind the arc, the 16th worst in the nation. The Broncos have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total. Utah State made 52.5% of their shots on Saturday against the Tigers — and it was the fourth straight game and sixth time in their last seven games when they made at least 50% of their shots. But they held Memphis to 36.7% shooting from the field, which was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. The Aggies have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Utah State ranks fifth in the nation by making 60.9% of their shots inside the arc — and that helps them rank 21st in the nation and tops in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. At home, they are scoring +1.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But they are also surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court, which is the 277th worst decline relative to their road splits. The Aggies have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home -- and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos want to avenge a 93-68 loss at home to the Aggies on January 10th — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (757) and the Utah State Aggies (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 2/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with UAB plus the points versus Temple. UAB (16-10) had won two games in a row before a 55-54 upset loss at home against Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 140s. Temple (15-10) has lost two games in a row after their 65-62 loss against North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Take UAB plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on an 8 of 12 (67%) All-Sports run that continues their 16 of 25 (64%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays! Frank is also on a 6 of 9 (67%) College Basketball run — and now he furthers his 4 of 6 (67%) CBB Game of the Year/Month mark along with his 5 of 8 (63%) Game of Year run in All-Sports with a 25* CBB Conference Underdog of the Year for Wednesday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Valparaiso Beacons (676) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (675). THE SITUATION: Valparaiso (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 76-75 win at home against Indiana State as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Bradley (18-9) has won four of their last five games after a 70-60 upset win at Southern Illinois as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Valparaiso allowed the Sycamores to make 54.4% of their shots on Sunday, which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games — they should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. The Beacons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win, including four of those five games played at home. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win against a fellow Missouri Valley Conference rival, including four straight games when played at home. They stay at home, where they have a 10-4 record this season. One of the power ratings systems I consider ranks Valparaiso as the 158th best team in the nation — but they rise to 48th when assessing how teams play on their home court. They rank 79th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.6% of their opponents’ possessions when playing at home. They also rank third in the Missouri Valley Conference with an opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. The Beacons are surrendering -5.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. Valparaiso has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their 22 games under head coach Roger Powell Jr. against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games, including their six of their last nine games at home in those situations. The Beacon should have an edge in points coming from the charity stripe tonight — they lead the Missouri Valley Conference in getting to the free throw line. The Braves rank second-to-last in the conference in opponent free throw rate. Bradley held the Salukis to just 36.7% shooting, which was their best defensive effort in their last 10 games — and it was their second-straight upset victory after they stunned Belmont by a 95-84 score in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog last week. But the Braves have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset victory under head coach Brian Wardle. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win against MVC foes, including four of those five games played on the road. Interior offense is Bradley’s biggest weakness — they rank 299th in the nation by making only 48.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Braves also struggle on the road. While the power ratings system referenced above ranks 140th in the nation overall, they drop to 164th when playing on the road. They only make 45.9% of their shots inside the arc on the road, ranking 316th in the nation — and they only make 43.6% of their 2-pointers on the road in conference play. On defense, they rank 286th in putting their opponents on the free throw line when playing on the road. They are surrendering +4.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, which is the 291st worst drop versus home splits. Bradley has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 140s. 

FINAL TAKE: Valparaiso wants to avenge a 72-68 loss at Bradley on February 3rd. The Beacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Valparaiso Beacons (676) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.