Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 20 m | Show |
20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams. They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week. They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards. They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers. They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy. The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season. They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7). The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner. The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory. The other win was against the Texans. They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home. That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season. They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments. The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona. The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites. Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season. Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rams Monday. |
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12-13-21 | 76ers -2.5 v. Grizzlies | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 The Philadelphia 76ers are back healthy with Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey. It's starting to show as they have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall, including a win over the potent Warriors last time out. Look for them to make easy work of the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Grizzlies have been winning despite their injuries, going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall. But there's more added to the list tonight. They were already without JA Morant and Brandon Clarke and remain without those two tonight. But now Steven Adams is doubtful, and that's key because they need him to defend Joel Embiid. Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable for the Grizzlies as well. The 76ers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites. Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS since 1996. Take the 76ers Monday. |
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12-13-21 | Cleveland State +13 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +13 The Cleveland State Vikings returned all five starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last year. After 10 and 11-point losses to two quality teams in BYU and Ohio to open the season, respectively, the Vikings have reeled off six straight victories with five by double-digits. Now they are ready to give Oklahoma State a run for its money tonight. The Cowboys are grossly overrated this season, and it has really shown in their last three games. They only beat Oral Roberts by 1 as 9.5-point favorites, were upset by Wichita State by 9 as 6-point home favorites and were upset by Xavier by 6 as 3.5-point home favorites. They were also upset by Oakland as 17-point home favorites earlier this season. Oklahoma State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games following an upset loss as a home favorite. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% shooting or less. The Vikings are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. Cleveland State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog. Bet Cleveland State Monday. |
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12-12-21 | Mavs v. Thunder +4.5 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 The Dallas Mavericks are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall. They have no business being road favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight considering they will be without their best player in Luka Doncic (25.6 PPG, 8.5 APG, 8.0 RPG). There may not be a more important player in the NBA to his team than Doncic. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season posting a 15-10 ATS record. They pulled off two straight upset road wins over the Pistons and Raptors before getting crushed by a motivated Lakers team last time out. I think that blowout loss by 21 points has them undervalued today. Dallas is 1-8 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season. The Mavericks are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Thunder are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 Sunday games. Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Thunder are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 53 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 98 h 46 m | Show |
20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53 It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday. The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds. It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season. And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be. Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds. And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short. The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense. They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season. Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season. The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL. His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week. The Bills will get their offense going this week. They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season. They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary. Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already. The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone. The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs. I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both. Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more. Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game. The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better. The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs. The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Virginia Tech v. Dayton +2.5 | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dayton +2.5 Dayton is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming on the road to SMU by a final of 69-77. This run includes three upset wins over Miami 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs, Kansas 74-73 as 16-point dogs and Belmont 63-61 as 3.5-point dogs. The Flyers followed up those three upsets wins with blowout victories over Alabama State 93-54 as 19.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois 79-41 as 17.5-point favorites. So they avoided the letdowns in those games, and that is not a bad loss at SMU. Look for them to get back in the win column at home today against Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 6-3 this season with their six wins all coming against cupcake opponents other than Maryland, which is way down this season. They lost to Memphis and Xavier on neutrals and were blasted at home by Wake Forest 61-80 as 8.5-point favorites. This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season today. Dayton is 22-6 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons. The Flyers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. ACC opponents. The Hokies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Flyers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Take Dayton Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2 | Top | 22-24 | Push | 0 | 109 h 14 m | Show |
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2 This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns. I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week. But that's the situation for the Browns. They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week. And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye. So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks. That's a huge advantage for them. The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score. That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat. And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens. The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime. Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers. They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line. Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much. He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games. This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns. The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record. They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful. They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season. The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed. The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play. So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season. They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense. We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal. Bet the Browns Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Raiders +10.5 v. Chiefs | 9-48 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 7 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5 This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week. This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset. This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week. They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up. This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be. They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games. Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch. They will be out for revenge as well. Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats. The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play. The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed. Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch. This is too big of an adjustment. Roll with the Raiders Sunday. |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +7 | Top | 123-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7 It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz. They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. They just beat the 76ers by 22 and the Timberwolves by 32 in their last two games. But that was a short-handed Timberwolves team, and that was a tired 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Now the Jazz have to face a rested, motivated Washington Wizards team. The Wizards will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. They will be motivated after losing three of their last four games. Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 15-11 SU, including 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home. Washington is 11-2 ATS vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game. The Wizards are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Jazz with two outright upsets as 10.5-point underdogs in both games. Utah is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Bet the Wizards Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Toledo +9.5 v. Richmond | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +9.5 The Toledo Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC this season. They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road to Michigan State and Oakland, two very good teams. They have handled all other comers, and they will hang with Richmond Saturday. The Spiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country. They are 5-4 SU this season with their five wins coming against NC Central, Georgia State, HOfstra, Wofford and Northern Iowa. They have lost to the four best teams they have faced in Utah State, Maryland, Mississippi State and Drake. And Toledo ranks as one of the best teams they have faced. Richmond is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Spiders are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game. Take Toledo Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Arizona v. Illinois +1 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Arizona/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +1 The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season. But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry. Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette. That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back. They have since reeled off five straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Iowa. The 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites and the 87-83 upset win at Iowa showed their potential. Now the Fighting Illini will hand Arizona their first loss of the season. The Wildcats have been impressive in their 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS start, but it has come against the 242nd-ranked schedule in the country. Illinois has played the 92nd-ranked schedule. It's time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who will be playing just their 2nd true road game of the season with the other being against lowly Oregon State. This will be their toughest test of the season by far. Illinois is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 80 points or more last game. The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games with a total set of 150 to 159.5. Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line of +3 to -3. The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more points per game. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Fighting Illini. Take Illinois Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Oral Roberts +9.5 v. Missouri State | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +9.5 Oral Roberts made a run to the Sweet 16 last year and brought back a lot of talent from that team. Now they have played a tough early schedule that ranks 135th in the country. They are 5-4 with three of their losses coming as big dogs to Colorado State, Oklahoma State (1-point loss) and TCU (8-point loss). Oral Roberts has proven they can hang with teams like Oklahoma State and TCU, and now they will stay within single-digits of an even worse Missouri State team today. The Bears are also 5-4, but it has come against the 309th-ranked schedule int he country. They have upset losses to SE Missouri State as 16-point favorites, E. Tennessee State as 7-point favorites and Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites. They have no business being a 9.5-point favorite against Oral Roberts today. Plays on road underdogs or PK (Oral Roberts) - off a road win by 10 points ormore against an opponent that is off a road win by 20 points or more are 80-39 (67.2%) ATS since 1997. The Golden Eagles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. Oral Roberts is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Golden Eagles are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Roll with Oral Roberts Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Magic +9 v. Clippers | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9 The Los Angeles Clippers were already without their best player in Kawhi Leonard. Now they will be without their second-best player in Paul George, who is nursing an elbow injury. The Clippers should not be 9-point favorites against anyone without these two, not even the Orlando Magic. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Magic, who have lost three straight road games to Houston, Golden State and Sacramento. But now they come in fresh and ready to go today on two days' rest. They will give the Clippers a run for their money without George. It's not like the Clippers were playing well with George recently, either. They are just 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Three of those five wins came by 6 points or less, so they aren't blowing anyone out either. They certainly won't be beating the Magic by double-digits today. The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 this season. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days' rest. Roll with the Magic Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy +7.5 Both teams will be motivated. But I just think Navy will be the slightly more motivated team for a couple of different reasons. First, this is their 'National Championship' game since they won't be going to a bowl game. Secondly, the Midshipmen want revenge from a 15-0 loss to Army last season. Navy played a much more difficult schedule than Army this season, which will work in its favor. The Midshipmen played the 54th-toughest schedule. Army played the 87th-toughest schedule and took advantage with an 8-3 campaign. Navy was a much improved team in the second half of the season. The Midshipmen went 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games. They took four-team playoff participant Cincinnati to the wire in a 20-27 loss as 29-point dogs. They actually outgained Cincinnati by 37 yards in that contest. They went on to upset Tulsa 20-17 as 12-point road dogs and outgained them by 8 yards. Their only non-cover was a 6-34 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, and Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country as well so that's understandable. They took a very good ECU team to the wire in a 35-38 loss as 3.5-point dogs. Then they crushed Tulsa 38-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their finale. They are playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of Army and possibly pull off the upset. Army played a much easier schedule of opposing defenses which is why its offensive numbers are better than Navy. But these teams are pretty even defensively despite Navy playing the much tougher schedule of opposing offenses. Navy gives up just 359.8 yards per game on the season, 132 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry. Army allows 324.1 yards per game, 3.7 per carry and 104 rushing yards per game. Navy's defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and it's expected to be low scoring with a 34-point total, so getting over a touchdown here is a nice value. The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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12-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2 What more does Colorado State have to do to get respect from oddsmakers? They brought back all five starters from a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year. They are well on their way to the Big Dance after a 9-0 start this season, outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per game. The Rams have already picked up some very quality wins over Oral Roberts by 29, Bradley by 6, Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16. Now they will take down a Mississippi State team that got off to a fast start against a weak schedule, but some holes have showed up of late. The Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 14 to Louisville on a neutral as a 1.5-point favorite. They only beat Lamar by 15 as a 22.5-point home favorite. And they were upset as 11.5-point home favorites by a bad Minnesota team. I would argue this is their toughest test of the season to date. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rams are 11-3 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Niko Medved is 27-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game in all games as a head coach. Bet Colorado State Saturday. |
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12-10-21 | Celtics v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 90-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5 The Phoenix Suns are picking up where they left off last season. They are 20-4 and it's largely due to being one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Indeed, the Suns rank 2nd in defensive efficiency this season at 101.7 points per 100 possessions allowed. But they are hampered on offense right now without leading scorer Devin Booker (23.2 PPG). And they'll be up against an improved Boston defense that ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions this season. This total is simply too high with these two good defensive teams and Booker and Jaylen Brown (21.4 PPG) out. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Phoenix. The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Suns last five games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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12-10-21 | Cavs +100 v. Wolves | Top | 123-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers PK The Cleveland Cavaliers are the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season. They are 14-12 SU & 18-6-2 ATS this season. That includes an 8-1 ATS run in their lsat nine games with wins over Chicago by 23, Miami by 31, Dallas by 18 and Washington by 15. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with the four losses coming by an average of 14.0 points per game. De'Angelo Russell is questionable to play tonight and they aren't nearly as good of a team without him. But I believe the Cavaliers win this game whether he plays or not. Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after covering four of five of its last six games this season. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Cavaliers Friday. |
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12-10-21 | Mavs v. Pacers -1.5 | 93-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show. They had three straight close losses by single-digits before winning their last two games by 6 over the Wizards and by 20 over the Knicks. The Pacers are healthy, but they are also fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight. The same cannot be said for the struggling Mavericks, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city. The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses to the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Nets. They are also 3-8 SU in their last 11 games. Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. The Mavericks are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Pacers Friday. |
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12-09-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State +3.5 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5 The Iowa State Cyclones are just getting no love from the books or bettors alike. We'll take advantage tonight and back them as home underdogs. TJ Otzelberger is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country, and it's all of his recruits that are making the biggest impact for the Cyclones this season. Iowa State is 8-0 this season with upset wins over Xavier 82-70 as 9-point underdogs on a neutral, Memphis 78-59 as 11.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Creighton 64-58 as 5.5-point road dogs. Penn State transfer Isaiah Brockington (16.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur (12.1 PPG), stud freshman PG Tyrese Hunter (11.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) and UNLV transfer Caleb Grill (7.6 PPG) are the top four scorers for the Cyclones thanks to Otzelberger's recruiting. But the biggest difference has been Otzelberger's coaching to get this team to play defense, which is something Steve Prohm didn't do a good job of before him. The Cyclones are holding opponents to 60.1 points per game this season, and those opponents typically average 70.1 points per game, so they are holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages. Iowa is overvalued after a 7-0 start against a very soft schedule. They opened with six straight home wins as 19.5-point favorites or more before beating Virginia by 1 as 2-point road underdogs. That's a down Virginia team. Then they finally played some big boys in Purdue and Illinois and lost despite making some big rallies late after falling behind by double-digits to both. Those final scores were closer than the games actually were. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Fran McCaffery is 6-15 ATS in road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Iowa. Take Iowa State Thursday. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad. Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home. But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens. Their last two road performances were miserable. They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period. They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more. Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers. They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them. And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson. Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week. The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team. They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play. Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play. But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings. Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score. Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score. So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field. But that's just not the case. The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight. Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss. Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Vikings Thursday. |
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12-09-21 | Lakers -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -3 The Los Angeles Lakers are getting healthy now with Lebron, Davis and Westbrook all on the floor together. They flashed their potential with a 117-102 win over Boston last time out. And now they are fresh and ready for another big effort tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 96-104 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night. They are already short-handed as it is playing without JA Morant, plus Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clark and Sam Merrill are all questionable tonight. They can't compete with the Lakers without Morant, especially not in this tough rest spot. Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering three of their last four ATS in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS since 1996. It's time to 'buy low' on Los Angeles after a shaky start to the season due to injuries. Bet the Lakers Thursday. |
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12-08-21 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +2.5 | 120-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season. It's no surprise they are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late as a result. They have gone 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the Clippers, Jazz, Wizards and Mavericks. Now the Pelicans are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. They take on a Denver Nuggets team that is banged up right now playing without Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray and Austin Rivers. Nikola Jokic is banged up as well and has missed a few games lately, though he is supposed to play tonight. These injuries are taking their toll as the Nuggets are 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. The Nuggets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Pelicans Wednesday. |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 13-12 SU & 18-5-2 ATS this season. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off two competitive losses to the Jazz by 1 and Bucks by 8. Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the short-handed Bulls. Chicago is an underrated team too, but they are banged up and without several key players due to COVID. They are without DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, Coby White and Javonte Green tonight. I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive against the Cavaliers without these guys. The Cavaliers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Cleveland is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. |
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12-08-21 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 209 | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons OVER 209 The OVER is 3-1 in Wizards last four games overall with combined scores of 217 or more points in all three OVERS. The OVER is 2-0 in Pistons last two games with combined scores of 217 points or more in both games. And I think there's ample value to pull the trigger on the OVER 209 tonight in this showdown. Washington and Detroit have combined for 211 or more points in six of their last eight meetings, so this number is short based on head-to-head history as well. Both teams are getting healthier of late and should start thriving on offense more than they have thus far this season. The OVER is 5-1 in Wizards last six games overall. The OVER is 18-7 in Pistons last 25 games following four or more consecutive losses. Washington is 32-17 OVER in is last 49 road games following a road game. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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12-08-21 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4.5 The Wisconsin Badgers are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a 7-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Providence. They have five quality wins already over Texas A&M, Houston, St. Mary's, Georgia Tech and Marquette. They have played the 56th-toughest schedule in the country. Indiana is also 7-1, but it has come against the 273rd-ranked schedule in the country. They were double-digit favorites in six of their seven wins. In their lone road game, they lost outright to a bad Syracuse team. And now this will be their toughest test of the season by far at Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply owns Indiana at home, going 18-1 SU in the last 19 meetings in Madison. Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet Wisconsin Wednesday. |
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12-08-21 | Connecticut +2.5 v. West Virginia | 53-56 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +2.5 Connecticut is one of the best teams in the country. The Huskies are 8-1 this season with their only loss coming to Michigan State in overtime after they blew a big late lead. They also have a win over Auburn on a neutral the day prior that went to multiple overtimes, so it explains how they ran out of gas against Michigan State. West Virginia is 7-1 this season against a very easy schedule. They have late bad teams like Oakland (won by 7) and Eastern Kentucky (won by 3) hang around at home. They lost by 11 to Marquette on a neutral with their best win coming against Clemson by 7 on a neutral. This will be their toughest test of the season for a rebuilding Mountaineers squad. West Virginia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two or more consecutive home games. The Huskies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. Take Connecticut Wednesday. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 219 | Top | 102-117 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 219 These teams played in a shootout in their first meeting on November 19th in a 130-108 victory by the Celtics in Boston for 238 combined points. The OVER is now 7-1 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 226 or more points in six of the last seven. It should be more of the same tonight, especially with the way these two teams are trending. The OVER is 4-1 in Lakers last five games overall and they just got LeBron James back healthy. They lost to the Clippers 115-119 for 234 combined points last time out. The OVER is 2-0 in Celtics last two games overall as they combined with the Jazz for 267 points and the Blazers for 262 points without overtime in either! The Lakers play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season. Russell Westbrook has been an OVER machine everywhere he has gone because he pushes the pace at the PG position. Dennis Schroder loves to do the same for the Celtics and has been a great addition to their team this season averaging 17.9 points per game. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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12-07-21 | North Dakota State +5.5 v. Montana State | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on North Dakota State +5.5 North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country. They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 5-3 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2), Arizona and Creighton. They have taken care of business against everyone else. Montana State lost to a team the caliber of North Dakota State in South Dakota State by a final of 74-91. The Bobcats are 5-4 this season with their only wins coming against Rocky Mountain, Portland, Incarnate Word, SE Missouri State and Sacramento State with two of those wins coming by 3 points or less. The Bobcats should not be this big of favorites against the Bison, let alone favorites at all. It's also a tougher rest spot for the Bobcats as they will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days, while the Bison come in on four days' rest after blasting Northland 114-51 last time out on December 2nd. North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games following an ATS loss. Montana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Montana State is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take North Dakota State Tuesday. |
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12-07-21 | UTEP v. Kansas -18.5 | 52-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -18.5 The Kansas Jayhawks have faced a brutal schedule thus far and are 6-1 with their only loss coming to Dayton by a single point after blowing a double-digit lead. They beat St. John's by 20 and Michigan State by 13 with five of their seven games on a neutral thus far. Now they are back home where they have beaten Tarleton State by 26 and Stony Brook by 29. Kansas has played the 72nd-toughest schedule in the country. Now they take a on a 4-3 UTEP team that has played the 192nd schedule. Their toughest games were two losses to New Mexico State. The their five games have come against Western New Mexico, Northern New Mexico, Pacific, UC-Riverside (lost by 12) and Florida A&M. It's safe to say this is a massive step up in class for the Miners. UTEP is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games following three or more consecutive home games. This is an elite Kansas offense averaging 85.4 points per game against teams that only allow 66 points per game, scoring nearly 20 points per game more than their opponents typically allow. They will run it up here. Roll with Kansas Tuesday. |
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12-06-21 | Spurs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 The Phoenix Suns finally had their 18-game winning streak snapped by the Golden State Warriors last time out. I always like fading teams the game after having a long winning streak snapped because it tends to be a hangover spot. The wind is lifted out of their sails. A big reason the Suns lost to the Warriors is because they were without their best player in Devin Booker. He remains out tonight with a hamstring injury, and the Suns have no business laying this big of a number against the San Antonio Spurs without him. This is a fresh Spurs team playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight upset victories over the Celtics by 8, Wizards by 17, Blazers by 31 and Warriors by 5 as 9-point road dogs. They will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after going under the total by 48 points or more in their last 10 games, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss. San Antonio is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Phoenix. Take the Spurs Monday. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
20* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -2.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with most their wins coming via blowout. But it has been about as an easy a schedule as possible. They beat the banged-up Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers, the banged-up Browns, the banged-up Falcons and the banged-up Titans. This is a huge step up in class for them Monday night. The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. They bounced back from a bad loss to the Colts where they had four turnovers with a 31-6 road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving. Now they have had extra rest and will be ready to go Monday night with a great atmosphere in Buffalo with first place on the line in the AFC East. We'll get an 'A' effort from the Bills, and their 'A' game is much better than that of the Patriots. New England relies heavily on running the football. Well, the Bills have allowed 79 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last five games overall. They key to their run defense is LB Tremaine Edmunds. The Bills only give up 3.6 yards per carry with him on the field. Edmunds is healthy now, and this is one of the healthiest rosters in the entire NFL. I've heard plenty about the weather in Buffalo Monday night being a reason bettors are on the Patriots. I disagree that the temps in the 20s with near-20 MPH winds helps New England. I think it actually favors the Bills, who have a strong-armed quarterback in Josh Allen who can cut through any wind, and also beat the Patriots with his legs. Mac Jones is more of a finesse quarterback who will struggle more with the wind than Allen will. The Bills are a better rushing team than the Patriots, too. They average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry, while the Patriots average 115 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. New England is only outgaining its opponents by 38.7 yards per game, while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 113.7 yards per game. The Bills are clearly the better team and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites here. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Bills are 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 4 yards per play or less last game. The Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Patriots come back down to reality with this big step up in competition this week. Roll with the Bills Monday. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois +4 v. Iowa | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
20* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +4 The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season. But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry. Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette. That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back. They have since reeled off four straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame and Rutgers. That 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites showed their potential, and I think we get their 'A' game against Iowa tonight. The Hawkeyes are overvalued after opening the season 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. But their first six games were all at home against suspect competition as they were basically 20-point favorites or more in every game. They escaped with a 75-74 win at Virginia, a team that is down this season. And they lost by 7 at Purdue last time out, which was a respectable showing but I think has them overvalued tonight as 4-point favorites against the Fighting Illini. I have no doubt Illinois is the better of these two teams and it will show on the court. The Fighting Illini are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. Roll with Illinois Monday. |
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12-05-21 | Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 221 | Top | 130-127 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Hawks UNDER 221 Charlotte is going to be without its top two guards in LaMelo Ball (20.0 PPG, 8.3 APG) and Terry Rozier (17.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) tonight. They will be hampered big-time offensively without these two, and they will be playing at a much slower pace than normal. The Atlanta Hawks also have some injuries that will hamper them offensively and make them play at a slower pace. They will be without Bogdan Bogdanovic, plus Trae Young, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter all questionable. This will be a defensive battle. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 220 or fewer points in all four. The UNDER is 13-3 in Hornets last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 11-2 in Hawks last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -1.5 | Top | 60-52 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -1.5 Northern Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 2-4 record. They were banged up early in the season and suffered a couple upset losses. But they have since gotten healthy and have played better. They returned all five starters and basically everyone from last year. They are just 2-2 since getting healthy, but close to being 4-0. They held a 1-point lead in the final three minutes as 12.5-point dogs at Arkansas and lost. They upset St. Bonaventure 90-80 as 10-point road dogs. And they lost just before the buzzer to Bradley, 69-71 on the road last time out. Now the Panthers are back home and taking on a Richmond team that is overrated. The Spiders are just 4-4 this season. They lost to Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State. Their four wins came against NC Central, Georgia State, Hofstra and Wofford with three of those wins coming at home. Northern Iowa is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Roll with Northern Iowa Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins -4 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 25 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins -4 The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year. The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. They went on to beat the Jets 24-17. And last week they crushed the Panthers 33-10 at home and held them to just 198 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. And last week he went 27-of-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown without a pick against a very good Carolina defense. That's 81% completions for Tua over the last three weeks. Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward. Now they take on the Giants, who have about as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now. It got even worse with QB Daniel Jones ruled out this week, so Mike Glennon will get the start in his place. They will also be without WR's Sterling Shepard and Kedarius Toney with several other key players either ruled out or questionable. They have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL. Miami has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks and trusting their lockdown secondary, which has been the key to their turnaround defensively. The statue, Glennon, is going to be under duress all game, and he doesn't have the healthy playmakers around him to make the Dolphins pay for blitzing. They will continue their recent surge with a 5th straight win and cover in blowout fashion over the short-handed Giants on Sunday. They will be up against a shaky New York offense that has managed just 264, 215 and 245 total yards in the three weeks, respectively. The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning two of their last three games. Bet the Dolphins Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -118 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50 This game definitely sets up to be a shootout. I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points. There won't be as many defensive touchdowns. But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem. The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to. Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback. It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean. The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball. They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week. They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary. The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta. They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49 These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday. It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH. The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season. Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season. Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run. They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall. The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game. Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio. Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns. The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses. Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites. The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons +11 | 30-17 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11 Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season. He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores. With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger. Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful. The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting. That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open. That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread. The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean. The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness. Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis. So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year. They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored. The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years. But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday. |
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12-05-21 | Colts v. Texans +10 | 31-0 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10 This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts. After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat. That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals. They will be overlooking the Texans. We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago. They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs. And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs. They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago. This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career. The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers. They have not quit on that side of the ball. Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too. Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation. But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed. Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest. But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips. Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did. Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more. The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Texans Sunday. |
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12-04-21 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5 The Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns last night. They are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us tonight, and I think that's asking too much. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an 8-point home win over Boston, a 17-point home win over Washington and a 31-point road win at Portland all outright as underdogs. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. The Spurs are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons. San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. It's time to 'sell high' on the tired Warriors tonight. Roll with the Spurs Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | Bulls +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5 The Chicago Bulls have gotten healthy with Nikola Vucevic back and are starting to play up to their potential again. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the Heat by 3. They beat the Magic by 35 on the road, the Hornets by 14 at home and the Knicks by 4 on the road. While the Bulls are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, the Nets are tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, who were without Karl-Anthony Towns. They are already without Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving, so they are short-handed. Kevin Durant played 37 minutes, James Harden 35 and Lamarcus Aldridge 34 last night. Chicago already crushed Brooklyn 118-95 at home in their first and only meeting this season. The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Bet the Bulls Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | Alabama +9.5 v. Gonzaga | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
15* Alabama/Gonzaga ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +9.5 Alabama is really getting disrespected here. The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country, and oddsmakers are asking Gonzaga to win by double-digits Saturday to beat us. That's asking too much. Gonzaga has shown vulnerabilities in its last two games. They lost outright to Duke as 9-point favorites, then came back with just a 9-point win over Tarleton State as 31-point favorites. Now they are up against an Alabama team that definitely has some of the best guards in the country that will be hard to deal with. Alabama is 6-1 this season with a 4-point loss to Iona in upset fashion. But the other six games have been very impressive in going 5-1 ATS in those six games. That includes a 32-point win over Miami, a 9-point win over a good Drake team, a 16-point win over a good South Dakota State team, a 27-point win over a good Oakland team and a 29-point win over a quality Louisiana Tech team. Those aren't big names, but they are some of the better teams in their mid-major conferences. Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 40 or more boards per game. Nate Oats is 11-2 ATS when the total is 160 or higher as the coach of Alabama. Mark Few is 1-8 ATS after two straight games forcing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga. Take Alabama Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | UAB v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2 Saint Louis is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Memphis. They brought back almost everyone from last year and a ton of talent for Travis Ford. And they have impressive road wins over Stephen F. Austin and Boise State in their last two games coming in. UAB is getting way too much respect after opening 6-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS against a soft schedule. They lost to the two best teams they faced in South Carolina and San Francisco, neither of which are as good as Saint Louis. And the six wins have come against suspect competition as they have been a double-digit favorite in all six. Saint Louis has a huge home-court advantage and is 4-0 at home this season while winning by 41.8 points per game. The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference home games. Saint Louis is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games overall. Take Saint Louis Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5 Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game. Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff. Lose and they don't. That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well. They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity. They just need to win. Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have been flying under the radar. And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point. They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose. Look for one of their best performances of the season. These teams aren't that far off statistically. Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game. Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game. This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance. Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season. He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett. Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio. Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game. The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Houston Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | St. Mary's v. Colorado State -4 | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Colorado State -4 Colorado State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country. They returned all five starters this season from a team that barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year. They are on a mission to get to the big dance this year, and a win over St. Mary's would go a long way. The Rams have handled their business thus far in their 8-0 start that has seen them outscore opponents by 18.1 points per game. They beat Creighton by 14 and Oral Roberts by 29, two NCAA Tournament teams from last year. They are coming off a 31-point win over Arkansas-Little Rock and have had the last two days off. St. Mary's will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days after a narrow win at Utah State, 60-58 on Thursday. Playing in altitude here will be tough for the Gaels. It will also be their 6th game in 13 days. Bet Colorado State Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 53 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 56 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53 Talk about familiarity. Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years. This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those. The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings. Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season. While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed. They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers. That's not going to happen again. Both teams live off running the football and playing defense. Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts. Louisiana allows just 18.5 points per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games. The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better. The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games. The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | SIU-Edwardsville +10 v. Bradley | 55-80 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +10 SIU-Edwardsville is just 2-5 SU this season but all five losses were decided by 13 points or less and they have faced some stiff competition. They only lost by 11 at Marquette as 21-point dogs, upset Youngstown State on the road as 5-point dogs and only lost at Creighton by 5 as 21-point dogs. Now SIU-Edwardsville is catching 10 points against a down Bradley team that is just 3-5 this season with two wins over Missouri S&T and Maine. They lost by 16 to South Dakota State, by 12 to Howard as 12.5-point favorites, by 3 to Brown as 3.5-point favorites and by 8 to Duquesne as 2-point dogs. They did pull the upset over Northern Iowa in their MVC opener last time out by 2, but that makes this a letdown spot for them today. SIU-Edwardsville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. The Braves are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Bradley is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Roll with SIU-Edwardsville Saturday. |
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12-04-21 | Kent State -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3 It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season. They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine. That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer. The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average. They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game. They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards. Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history. The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan. That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting. The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting. It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting. The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team. Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game. The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game. Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog. The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game. Bet Kent State Saturday. |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
20* Suns/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5 The Suns and Warriors just played on Tuesday with the Suns winning 104-96 for 200 combined points. Now they play again just three days later here Friday, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The Suns are going to be severely hampered on offense now with the loss of leading scorer, Devin Booker. He got hurt against the Warriors in the first half of that game and missed last game against Detroit. He will be out again tonight, and with points going to be hard to come by for the Suns, they are going to have to rely on their defense. Speaking of defense, these are the top two defensive teams in the NBA, which explains why they have the two best records in the NBA. The Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.8 points per 100 possessions. The Suns rank 2nd, allowing 101.4 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games after a combined score of 205 points or less. Golden State is 32-13 UNDER In its last 45 games after playing its last game on the road. The Warriors are 8-0 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season. Golden State is 8-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging at least 23 assists per game this season. The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5 Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship. They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years. But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019. The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend. That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season. It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air. In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall. The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game. They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more. This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback. They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more. They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State. Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame. He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry. In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play. Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense. Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite. Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better. The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight. The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win. Bet Utah Friday. |
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12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1.5 It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They played the majority of those games without Joel Embiid. But they are playing better with him back of late, and I look for them to upset the Atlanta Hawks tonight. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. But injuries have hit the Hawks of late as they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable. Every time the 76ers see the Hawks this season they are going to want revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by Atlanta last year. That showed in their 122-94 home win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. And now they will go on the road and exact some more revenge on the Hawks with an outright victory. Take the 76ers Friday. |
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12-03-21 | Heat v. Pacers -5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Pacers tonight. They have lost three straight with a blowout loss to the Bucks and two tough losses to the Hawks and Timberwolves by a combined 5 points. They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they won't be taking the short-handed Miami Heat lightly because of it. Miami is without its two best players in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. That explains their ugly losses in their last two games with a 111-120 home loss as 3-point favorites against the Nuggets followed by an 85-111 home loss to the Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites. They just aren't a very good team without these two. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games. Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Pacers Friday. |
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12-03-21 | Rutgers v. Illinois -8 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -8 The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season. But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry. Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette. That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back. They have since reeled off three straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV and Notre Dame. But at just 2-5 ATS this season, this is a good time to 'buy low' on them tonight in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers. Rutgers is just 4-3 SU & 1-5-1 ATS this season. It's clearly a rebuilding year for the Scarlet Knights, who lost a lot in the offseason. They have so many concerning results. They lost outright as favorites to DePaul (-2.5), Lafayette (-19) and UMass (-1.5). They struggled to beat Lehigh by 3, Merrimack by 13 and New Jersey Tech by 14. This clearly isn't a very good team, and this will be by far their toughest test of the season after playing an easy early schedule. Illinois is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. This one has double-digit blowout written all over it folks. Roll with Illinois Friday. |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +13 v. Suns | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +13 You're paying a tax tonight to back the Phoenix Suns due to their 17-game winning streak. If there was ever going to be a letdown spot, this is the one because they are coming off a huge National TV win over Golden State on Tuesday, and now they have the Warriors on deck tomorrow night. The Suns will be trying to conserve their energy in this game against the Pistons, especially since they just lost their best player in Devin Booker to injury against the Warriors last time out. They are now short-handed and there's no way they should be 13-point favorites without Booker. While it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns, it's also a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons. They have lost seven straight coming in, but five of them came by 11 points or fewer against some very good competition. The Pistons are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been consistently catching too many points, including tonight. Detroit is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following three or more consecutive losses. The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. The Pistons are 26-9 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Phoenix. Bet the Pistons Thursday. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys -5 v. Saints | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5 The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four. They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills. This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo. I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well. Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation. They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week. They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem. Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more. The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken. Bet the Cowboys Thursday. |
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12-02-21 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 215 | Top | 79-152 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 215 The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be without JA Morant for the foreseeable future. They are definitely an UNDER team without him. That showed last time out in their 98-91 win over the Raptors for 189 combined points. And this total has been set way too high tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are a tired team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss to Houston last night. I think that fatigue hurts them more on offense than defense. The Thunder are tied for last in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season. They are in the middle of the pack (15th) in defensive efficiency and have been underrated on that end. The UNDER is 37-18 in Thunder last 55 road games. The UNDER is 66-29-1 in Thunder last 96 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 22-9 in Grizzlies last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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12-02-21 | Youngstown State +5.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Youngstown State +5.5 Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being a 5.5-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight, let alone a favorite at all. The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season despite playing a very easy schedule. Wisconsin-Milwaukee opened with a win over North Dakota. They have since lost five straight despite being favorite in three of them. They lost by 6 to Eastern Kentucky as 5-point home favorites, by 36 to Florida as 16.5-point road dogs, by 14 to Bowling Green as 2.5-point neutral court favorites, by 13 to Yale as 7-point neutral court underdogs and by 4 to Alcorn State as 10-point home favorites. Youngstown State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. They were competitive in all three losses. They covered in a 16-point loss at Penn State as 17-point dogs. They only lost toby 3 to SIU-Edwardsville and by 5 to Niagara, two teams that are underrated in my book. The Penguins are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Youngstown State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Milwaukee is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Panthers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games as home favorites. Milwaukee is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Youngstown State Thursday. |
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12-01-21 | Texas Tech v. Providence +3 | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Providence +3 Texas Tech is 6-0 this season and has yet to play a true road games. The Red Raiders have played the 357th-ranked schedule in the country with their six wins coming against North Florida, Grambling, Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha and Lamar. It's time to 'sell high' on the Red Raiders after this start against this soft schedule. Now they will be playing their first true road games against a Providence team that is battle-tested and has gotten through the 154th-ranked schedule at 6-1. That includes upset road wins over Wisconsin on the road and Northwestern on a neutral with their lone loss coming to Virginia on a neutral. Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less. Texas Tech is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Big East opponents. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less. The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Providence Wednesday. |
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12-01-21 | Northern Iowa -4 v. Bradley | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -4 Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. But they had some bad losses early when they were injured. Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs. The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season. But Northern Iowa played up to its potential last time out, upsetting previously unbeaten and ranked St. Bonaventure 90-80 on the road as 10-point dogs. They will be playing just their 2nd game since November 17th tonight, so they are rested, fully healthy and ready for this Missouri Valley opener against Bradley. The Braves are way down this season. They are just 2-5 SU & 2-4 ATS with their two wins coming against Missouri S&T and Maine. They have losses to Howard by 12 as 12.5-point favorites, South Dakota State by 16 as 9-point dogs, Brown by 3 as 3.5-point favorites and Duquesne by 8 as 2-point dogs. They won't be able to hang with a team the caliber of the Panthers tonight. Bradley is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games after going under the total in its previous game. The Braves are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. |
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12-01-21 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 60-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +7.5 Wichita State is 6-1 this season with its only loss to Arizona by 4 points as 9.5-point dogs. That's a very good Arizona team. They are battle-tested also having road wins over Missouri and UNLV. And now they are catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys are also 6-1 but getting too much respect from oddsmakers. They have narrow wins over NC State by 6 and Oral Roberts by 1. They also have an upset loss to Oakland as a 17-point favorite. They have played a much softer schedule, too. The Cowboys have no business laying this big of a number to the Shockers tonight. Wichita State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season. The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game. Wichita State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Wichita State Wednesday. |
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12-01-21 | Hawks v. Pacers | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four to the Lakers, Bucks and Timberwolves. Look for them to get back in the win column here as this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Pacers as a PK at home against the Atlanta Hawks. It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But most of that success has come at home. The Hawks are just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS on the road this season. And they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic tonight and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable. Atlanta is 1-9 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 points per game or fewer this season. The Hawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record. Indiana is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Pacers Wednesday. |
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12-01-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 215.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a great offensive team since De'Angelo Russell returned to the lineup. They have scored 100 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. They have averaged 116.0 points per game in their last seven games with Russell. Washington has scored at least 99 points or more in six straight. But the Wizards have struggled on the other end, allowing 99 points or more in seven straight. Look for a shootout between these two teams tonight, especially when you consider their recent head-to-head history. The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 227 or more points at the end of regulation in all seven. The Timberwolves and Wizards have averaged 242.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 27 points more than tonight's posted total of 215.5. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-30-21 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 227.5 | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Kings UNDER 227.5 The Lakers and Kings just played on Friday in a 141-137 (OT) victory in triple-overtime by the Kings. That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for just 200 combined points. And now we are getting a massive 227.5-point total in the rematch. There's clearly value with the UNDER tonight. Plus, these teams are obviously very familiar with one another after playing just a few days ago, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Look for this game to come well short of this 227.5-point total at the end of regulation tonight. The Lakers are 27-13 UNDER in their last 40 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Kings are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games after playing their last game on the road. The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Lakers last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 27-11-1 in Kings last 39 games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Kings last 51 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9.5 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +9.5 The Detroit Pistons are playing much better basketball here of late now that they are getting healthy and forming some chemistry. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite a brutal schedule. They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks, by 11 to the Clippers and by 4 to the Lakers. Now they are catching 9.5 points against a struggling Portland Trail Blazers team and actually take a big step down in class here. Asking the Blazers to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking a lot. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, losing by 4 to the Kings, by 15 to the Warriors and by 22 to the Jazz. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in Utah last night as well. Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following four or more consecutive losses. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Detroit is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet the Pistons Tuesday. |
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11-30-21 | Warriors v. Suns -2 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2 The Phoenix Suns will be motivated to earn their 17th consecutive victory tonight. I think we are getting them at a discount as only 2-point favorites at home against the Golden State Warriors, who have the best record in the NBA. But you are paying a tax on the Warriors now moving forward due to that record. The Suns are a lot healthier than the Warriors are right now, too. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 100 points in its previous game. The Suns are 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Suns Tuesday. |
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11-30-21 | North Dakota State +9.5 v. Creighton | 55-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5 North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country. They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 4-2 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2) and Arizona. They can hang with Creighton tonight. This is one of the worst Creighton teams of the Greg McDermott era. While they are 6-1 SU, they are just 2-5 ATS. They have concerning close wins over SIU-Edwardsville by 5 as 21-point favorites, Southern Illinois by 2 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State by 7 as 19-point favorites and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 13 as 34-point favorites. North Dakota State is better than all four of those teams. Th Bison are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games following an ATS loss. North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win where they failed to cover the spread. Roll with North Dakota State Tuesday. |
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11-30-21 | Florida State +11.5 v. Purdue | 65-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
15* Florida State/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +11.5 You're paying a tax to back the Purdue Boilermakers right now due to their No. 2 national ranking and their 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS record. Now they are laying double-digits to a very good Florida State team that will give them a run for their money tonight. Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Florida. That includes blowout wins over Missouri by 23 as 9.5-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 28 as 6.5-point favorites and Pennsylvania by 35 as 19.5-point favorites. Purdue has four blowout wins and two close wins against the best two teams that they have faced. They beat Villanova by 6 and North Carolina by 9, and I think the Seminoles are more than capable of keeping this a single-digit game tonight. Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after scoring 95 points or more. Take Florida State Tuesday. |
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11-29-21 | Tarleton St +31.5 v. Gonzaga | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +31.5 Tarleton State has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the entire country and has been competitive against some very good teams. So they won't be phased by having to play Gonzaga tonight, and I look for them to stay within this massive number. Tarleton lost by 12 at Stanford, by 26 at Kansas, by 14 at Wichita State, by 1 at North Dakota State and by 11 at Michigan. So they haven't lost by this margin all season and have faced two of the best teams in the country in Kansas and Michigan. This is a letdown spot for Gonzaga. They just played UCLA and Duke in back-to-back games, and now they have another huge game on deck against Alabama. That makes this s a sandwich spot for them. I don't think they'll be giving Tarleton State the full attention they deserve tonight. Gonzaga is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS. The Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Tarleton State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with Tarleton State Monday. |
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11-29-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Mavs | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 10-10 SU & 13-5-2 ATS in their 20 games despite battling through injuries all season. But now they are about as healthy as they have been since the start of the season with pretty much every important player on the court other than Collin Sexton, who is out for the season. But Sexton's injury hasn't slowed down the Cavaliers. They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by just 5 to Brooklyn, by 5 to Phoenix and crushing Orlando by 13. They are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Dallas Mavericks are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and getting too much respect here again tonight. They were 6.5-point favorites against Washington last time out and lost by 6. And now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against this feisty Cleveland team. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS following an ATS win this season. Cleveland is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Mavericks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Cavaliers Monday. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team -105 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show |
20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs. They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs. They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team. But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks. In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards. Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games. They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy. The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention. Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests. They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game. To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season. Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season. Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games. Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach. We have two teams headed in opposite directions here. Bet Washington Monday. |
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11-29-21 | Hornets v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 119-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -5.5 The Chicago Bulls are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in. They just recently got Nikola Vucevic back and now are as healthy as they have been all season with him and Coby White in the lineup. This is one of the best rosters in the NBA. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bulls and 'sell high' on the Hornets, who have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. It's a tired Hornets team playing their 7th game in 11 days and in their 7th different city as well. Look for them to be flat tonight, and that showed last time out in their upset road loss to the Houston Rockets, 143-146. Chicago owns Charlotte. The Bulls are have 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 21, 17 and 13 points. Chicago is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Charlotte is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite. Plays against road underdogs (Charlotte) in a game involving two good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36.5%, after two straight games where they made 16 or more 3-pointers are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bulls Monday. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia -1.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Iowa/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1.5 The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued right now after a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season against an extremely soft schedule. They have played the 355th-ranked schedule in the country with all six games at home. Now they hit the road for the first time this season at Virginia and this is a massive step up in competition. Virginia is 5-2 this season against a much tougher schedule. Obviously the loss to Navy in the opener was a bad loss, but the other came against Houston on the road, and Houston is one of the best teams in the country. The Cavaliers have since rebounded nicely with four straight blowout victories all by 10 points or more, including a 10-point win over Georgia and an upset win over Providence by 18. They are the more battle-tested team and will be ready for a game against a team that caliber of Iowa. Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games. Take Virginia Monday. |
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11-28-21 | Pistons +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
20* Pistons/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +11.5 I like the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. They will be out for revenge from their 116-121 loss to the Lakers on November 21st exactly one week ago today. That was a heated game that led to the suspension of LeBron James. The Pistons have played a brutal schedule of late during their five-game losing streak, which has them undervalued. They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 5 to the Lakers, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks and by 11 to the Clippers. So they stayed within 11 of four of those five teams, and they can stay within 11 of the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles has been overvalued all season, especially when James has played, and he is questionable to play tonight. They are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their lone wins came by 5 over the Pistons and in overtime against the Pacers. In fact, the Lakers haven't won any of their last 15 games by more than 11 points, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread. Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive losses. Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor shooting teams that make 43% of their shots or worse. The Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Pistons Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings have some key injuries right now that are going to keep this game UNDER the total. The Grizzlies are without JA Morant, so they are going to have to slow it down today and won't be nearly as effective on offense without him. The Kings will be without both Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes and possibly Maurice Harkless. I think this number is inflated today due to the Kings winning a 141-137 (OT) triple-overtime thriller against the Lakers last time out. That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points. The Grizzlies lost Morant early in the game against the Hawks last time out and went on to manage just 100 points on 40.7% shooting. Their offense runs through Morant, and they are going to be lost without him. But they will try and make up for it on the defensive end. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) a losing team (40% to 49%) playing another losing team (25% to 40%) in Sunday games are 26-6 (81.2%) since 1996. The UNDER is 8-0 in Kings last eight Sunday games. The UNDER is 21-9 in Grizzlies last 30 Sunday games. The UNDER is 20-9 in the last 29 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers -3 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 97 h 10 m | Show |
20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3 The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards. Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards. Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season. But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record. Their numbers are elite. They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now. And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play. Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers. The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season. And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings. They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers. And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage. Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast. There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here. Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more. I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3 Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback. And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch. They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company. It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage. The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less. That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory. I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football. The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession. They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week. Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Broncos Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Dayton v. Belmont -2.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -2.5 The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year. Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation. The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team. They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally. The Bruins are off to a 5-2 start this season against a brutal schedule. The losses came to Ohio and LSU, and they have solid wins over Furman, Drake and Iona. I think their depth will play a big factor here playing in the championship game of the ESPN Events Invitational playing their 3rd game in 4 days. This is a terrible spot for Dayton. They will have a letdown after their shocking 74-73 win as 16-point dogs against Kansas last round. This is a Dayton team that was just 2-3 coming into that game with upset losses to UMass-Lowell 58-59 as 17.5-point favorites, Lipscomb 59-78 as 9-point favorites and Austin Peay 81-87 as 14-point favorites. They aren't that good, and we are getting Belmont at a discount due to that Kansas upset. The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after committing eight or fewer turnovers in their previous game. The Flyers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Roll with Belmont Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Panthers v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5 The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year. The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. And last week they beat the Jets 24-17. Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500. This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season. The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return. Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites. Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm. We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers. Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite. The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -103 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3 The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee. Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games. And the Colts have a great defense and running game. They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now. That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor. They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season. And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up. I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either. The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles. They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10. This might be their toughest road test of the season. Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game. They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning. And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night. The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis. Roll with the Colts Sunday. |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 38 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4 It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints. And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them. It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football. That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time. The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games. They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home. They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Giants Sunday. |
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11-27-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Bulls | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1.5 This is a tough spot for the Chicago Bulls. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after having to fly back from Orlando after a win against the short-handed Magic last night. It will also be the 9th game in 14 days for the Bulls. This team simply doesn't have much left in the tank. Now they have to face a rested, motivated Miami Heat team that comes in on two days' rest and off an upset loss to the Timberwolves. I don't think the Bulls will be able to match the Heat's energy or intensity in this game tonight. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games playing on two days' rest. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Chicago. Take the Heat Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 58 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5 Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible. It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl. It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week. I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one. In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us. The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week. They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse. They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title. Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Syracuse Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Santa Clara -3.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Santa Clara -3.5 Herb Sendek has a very good Santa Clara team this season. The Broncos are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season against a brutal schedule. They beat Stanford by 16 as 3-point dogs, Nevada by 22 as 1.5-point dogs, TCU by 19 as 3.5-point dogs and Cal Poly by 30 as 14.5-point favorites. Their lone loss came to Fresno State last time out, and I think they are undervalued off that defeat. UC-Irvine is a solid team at 3-1 this season. But they lost to the best team they faced in New Mexico State by 11 as 5.5-point dogs. It was also their only road game this season. And I don't see them hanging with this veteran, talented Santa Clara squad on the road tonight. Irvine is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Irvine is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after covering two of its last three ATS. The Anteaters are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The Broncos are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Santa Clara Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Wolves v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 The Philadelphia 76ers get Joel Embiid back from COVID tonight. They come in highly motivated for a victory after struggling without him, going 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. This after a solid 8-2 start this season with him on board for most of those games. The schedule has done the 76ers no favors without Embiid, either. They have played six straight road games coming in. But now they are back home where they have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the past few seasons. And they are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the 76ers, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But they are in a tough spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days after a shootout loss in Charlotte last night. They won't be able to match Philadelphia's energy and intensity tonight. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the 76ers Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Tulsa +6.5 v. SMU | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 65 h 29 m | Show |
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5 Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility. The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright. They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday. I question the motivation of the Mustangs. They won't be going to the AAC Title game. They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats. They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish. I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either. Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion. They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play. SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play. SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important. And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games. Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game. Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line. Bet Tulsa Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +7 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 65 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7 Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well. They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense. That is evident by this very low 39-point total. So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday. Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior. In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game. They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories. But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive. They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion. Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin. The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game. They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded. Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers. Bet Minnesota Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Arizona +20.5 v. Arizona State | 15-38 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 27 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5 It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week. They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week. And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week. Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us. Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week. Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out. QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week. The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season. But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch. They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs. And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference. If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season. In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games. In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average. They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before. Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Take Arizona Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Vanderbilt +32.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5 Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season. I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend. And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that. At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals. And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers. They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs. They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs. They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky. And last week was their most impressive performance yet. They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss. What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels. Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright. He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense. Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better. He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game. And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense. Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points. Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game. Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points. That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 29-38 | Loss | -106 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7 The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah. Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State. But none of that matters now. I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat. Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North. The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks. Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less. They have been competitive in every game. They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs. And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week. The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week. They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season. Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball. Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene. Take Oregon State Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -1 v. Michigan State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1 Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat. Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone. Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension. I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest. The numbers agree. Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game. Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game. The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. These teams have five common opponents this season. Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents. This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close. The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with Penn State Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Northern Iowa +10 v. St Bonaventure | 90-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +10 Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. But they had some bad losses early when they were injured. Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas last time out as 12.5-point dogs. The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season. But now that works in our favor here because the Panthers are catching more points than they should be against St. Bonaventure. They have also had a ton of time to get ready for this game and get even healthier with that Arkansas contest being their last game on November 17th. While it's a great time to 'buy low' on Northern Iowa, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on St. Bonaventure after opening 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. The Bonnies just played a big tournament and beat Boise State (by 6), Clemson (by 3) and Marquette to win the title. This is now a letdown spot for them as they return home to face 1-3 Northern Iowa. The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or lower. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +4 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 62 h 27 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4 Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech. And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday. Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog. They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards. Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards. They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score. And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB. And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team. Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards. The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season. They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well. This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch. The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss. Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less. Roll with Rice Saturday. |
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11-27-21 | Florida State +3 v. Florida | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 61 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3 Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start. The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State. That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami. Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida. I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game. Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen. The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri. They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU. Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford. At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be. Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Take Florida State Saturday. |
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11-26-21 | Bucks -3 v. Nuggets | 120-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
15* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -3 The Milwaukee Bucks are 7-0 when Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have been on the floor together this season. They have won five straight games by 7 points or more and are playing their best basketball of the season right now at their healthiest point of the season. Now they take on an injury-ravaged Denver Nuggets team that is not playing well, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by double-digits. They are without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic has missed the past three games with a wrist injury and is questionable to return tonight. I don't think it matters, but would obviously be a bonus if he didn't play. Roll with the Bucks Friday. |
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11-26-21 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 132-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1 It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Atlanta Hawks after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games prior to Thanksgiving. They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games. And they won five of those six games at home. Atlanta has been terrible on the road this season. The Hawks are 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their 10 road games. They face a motivated Memphis Grizzlies team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs overall. The Grizzlies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Grizzlies Friday. |
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11-26-21 | Wolves v. Hornets OVER 224.5 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER 224.5 Two teams that are playing very well and like to get up and down square off tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Timberwolves rank 11th. Minnesota got De'Angelo Russell back healthy and he has helped spark a 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run in their last five games overall. The Timberwolves have scored at least 107 points in all five games and have averaged 116.6 points per game during this stretch. He is the whole key to their offense, and they play a lot faster with him at the helm. The Timberwolves will also be without their best defender in Patrick Beverly tonight, which will help the OVER. Charlotte is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Hornets have scored at least 104 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency but just 24th in defensive efficiency this season. They are an OVER team. The OVER went 2-0 in two meetings last season with Charlotte winning 120-114 at home for 234 combined points, and 135-012 on the road for 237 combined points. This game has all the makings of a shootout as well. Take the OVER Friday. |
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11-26-21 | Penn State v. LSU -8.5 | 63-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5 LSU looks like one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 34.4 points per game. That includes wins over solid mid-major programs in Liberty by 16 as 7.5-point favorites and Belmont by 30 as 6.5-point favorites. Penn State is in rebuilding mode. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS this season. They failed to cover at home against Youngstown State, Cornell and St. Francis-NY. They also lost outright by 25 at UMass as 4-point favorites in their lone road game. This is a huge step up in class for Penn State. Plays on neutral court teams (LSU) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 76 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game, after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet LSU Friday. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14 I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread. They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out. They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result. The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with. They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that. And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns. This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home. The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU. They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen. They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards. They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite. And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite. East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season. They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football. Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston. The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State. The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business. They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis. And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot. So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character. Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch. Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch. The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards. They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati. The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game. Roll with East Carolina Friday. |
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11-26-21 | UTEP +13.5 v. UAB | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 20 m | Show |
20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5 This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers. They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line. They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion. I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now. Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season. The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points. They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice. Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently. And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale. They will be the more motivated team here. UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game. They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season. That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Take UTEP Friday. |
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11-26-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9 It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan. The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West. But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo. Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails. They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up. I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line. Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season. The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well. Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play. That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country. Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season. Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs. Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points. Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU. The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs. Bet Eastern Michigan Friday. |