15* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +12.5 

I think we’re getting too many points with Ohio State today for a couple of different reasons.  The first is the fact that they were just upset at home by Illinois, but that’s a Fighting Illini team that has now won four straight and is better than its record would suggest. 

After all, Michigan State also recently lost to Illinois outright as 11-point favorites.  But the Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 9 on the road in the first meeting.  And that’s another reason we are getting too many points here in the rematch. 

That was a much closer game than that 9-point margin would suggest.  In fact, Ohio State actually led Michigan State by 7 at halftime.  The Spartans simply pulled away in the closing minutes as they made their free throws and Ohio State went cold from the floor.  Now, the Buckeyes want some revenge here Sunday. 

Ohio State is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 when revenging a home loss.  The Buckeyes are 33-18 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Ohio State) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a road win are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Ohio State Sunday. 

20* Wichita State/Cincinnati AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State +12 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a deflating loss at Houston that will likely cost them the AAC title.  I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat in their biggest game of the season.  They won’t be fully focused for Wichita State, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 12.5-point spread. 

Conversely, Wichita State comes in highly motivated for revenge.  The Shockers led the Bearcats nearly the entire way until the closing minutes in their first meeting this season.  But they had two technical fouls and a shooting foul in the closing minutes, and Cincinnati made six straight free throws with the clock stopped to put the game away. 

Since that defeat, the Shockers have been playing very well.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat both SMU and Tulsa at home, hammered Tulane by 15 at home, and crushed ECU by 16 on the road.  They are fully capable of hanging with Cincinnati today. 

Greg Marshall is 78-36 ATS off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Wichita State.  Both meetings last season were decided by a combined 5 points, and their first meeting this season was much closer than the 11-point margin in Cincinnati’s favor would suggest.  And because they won by 11 I think we are getting a few extra points here.  The Shockers are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 Sunday games, while the Bearcats are just 21-44 ATS in their last 65 Sunday games.  Bet Wichita State Sunday. 

20* Gonzaga/San Diego ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +16 

The San Diego Toreros are one of the best teams in the WCC this season.  They have the talent to give Gonzaga a run for their money, especially when you look at their recent history against the Bulldogs. 

San Diego only lost by 16 as 23-point dogs at Gonzaga on January 2nd.  Now the Toreros get their shot at revenge at home exactly two weeks later.  And they only lost by 5 at home to Gonzaga and by 10 on the road in their two meetings last year, so they have a great track record against this team.  Getting 16 points is simply too much tonight. 

San Diego is 11-2 at home this season, shooting 48% from the floor and giving up just 42.5% shooting.  The Toreros are very capable of getting hot from 3-point range to stay in this game.  They shoot 37.5% from distance and average 8 made 3-pointers per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game over the last two seasons.  San Diego is 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last two years.  The Toreros are 6-0 ATS against top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Roll with San Diego Saturday. 

25* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -5 

The UCF Knights want revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 57-77 at Memphis on January 27th just a few weeks ago.  But now they get the Tigers at home this time around and should run away with this one. 

UCF is 12-2 at home this season with a one-point loss early in the year and then a loss to Houston, which has only lost one game all season.  And the Knights’ most important player in big man Tacko Fall got two fouls in the first three minutes in that Houston game and had to sit the entire first half. 

Memphis is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games this season.  Their only three wins in games played away from home this season have come against Canisius, Tulane and ECU.  Those are three of the worst teams in college basketball.  They have lost by 9 to LSU, by 20 to Oklahoma State, by 13 to Houston, by 9 to Temple, by 16 to Tulsa and by 6 to USF on the highway.  As you can see, each one of those losses came by 6 points or more. 

Memphis is 1-11 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  UCF is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  The Knights are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Knights are 9-1 ATS after two straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* AAC ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They’ve been poor for so long, but here they are at 17-7 SU & 17-7 ATS and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a fellow bubble team in Temple today would go a long way to helping their cause. 

It’s safe to say the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory today.  And they have already proven they can play with Temple.  The Bulls want revenge from an 80-82 (OT) road loss at Temple in their first meeting this season on January 12th. 

Now, the Bulls get the Owls at home this time around and should have their revenge.  South Florida is 13-2 at home this season.  One of their two losses came to one-loss Houston, which is certainly forgivable. 

Temple is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  South Florida is 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.  The Bulls are 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +6.5 

Oddsmakers just haven’t adjusted enough for the loss of Virginia Tech’s best player in Justin Robinson.  He is their floor general, currently their all-time assist leader and their second-leading scorer at 14.4 PPG. 

It’s no surprise the Hokies are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without Robinson.  They lost at home to Louisville by 8 as 5-point favorites, lost at Clemson by 8 as 3-point dogs, and only beat Georgia Tech by 8 as 12.5-point road dogs. 

Now the Hokies should be on upset alert as they hit the road to take on a feisty Pitt team that couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now.  The Panthers have gone 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is exactly the type of team I like to ‘buy low’ on. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - after failing to cover the spread in 7 or more consecutive games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  Their offense has been woeful without Robinson running the show.  I think that continues today, and if they do manage to pull out a victory, it won’t be by 7 points or more.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -1.5 

I like everything about this spot for the Dayton Flyers today.  For starters, they want revenge from their 71-76 road loss at VCU in their first meeting this season.  Given their advantageous scheduling spot, they should get revenge. 

Indeed, the Flyers actually come into this game on six days’ rest having last played on Saturday in an impressive 77-48 road win at Rhode Island.  Now they’re rested and ready to go against a VCU team that just had to play on Wednesday, only getting two days off in between games.  And the Rams will also be playing their 5th game in 15 days here. 

Dayton is 11-2 at home this season and winning by 11.6 points per game.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Dayton basically just has to win to cover this 1.5-point spread. 

VCU is 7-17 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dayton is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games off two consecutive road games.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Bet Dayton Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +12.5 

To say the Penn State Nittany Lions have turned their season around would be a massive understatement.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Northwestern on the road as 3-point dogs, upset Michigan at home at 7-point dogs, and only lost by 4 at Ohio State as 7-point dogs. 

Now, the Nittany Lions will be seeking revenge from a tough 90-99 (OT) home loss to Purdue on January 31st just a few weeks ago.  They are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

I think Purdue is way overvalued right now after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I correctly faded them with my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland +2.5 in a 70-56 home win over Purdue last time out.  And I’ll gladly fade the Boilermakers laying too big a number here against Penn State, a team that will want this game more. 

Penn State is 9-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Take Penn State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -3.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have lost four straight to fall to 16-9 on the season and 6-8 in Big Ten play.  They are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and cannot afford a home loss to Indiana if they want to get in.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory today. 

To be fair, three of those four losses were on the road while the other was a gut-wrenching home loss to Wisconsin.  Minnesota is still 12-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 9.1 points per game. 

Indiana doesn’t have a lot to play for but pride the rest of the way as they sit at 13-11 overall and 4-9 in the Big Ten.  The Hoosiers have really struggled of late, going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 12.0 points per game in this spot.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Take Minnesota Saturday. 

20* Buffalo/Toledo ESPNU No-Brainer on Toledo +3.5 

The Toledo Rockets want revenge from one of their only four losses this season.  They lost at Buffalo on January 8th.  But since then, the Rockets have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS with their only loss coming by two points on the road at Kent State. 

Toledo is now 20-4 on the season, which includes 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home while outscoring their opponents by 18.7 points per game.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere for the Rockets at home tonight.   

I like the fact that Toledo has five days’ rest coming in having last played on February 9th, while Buffalo is only on two days’ rest having last played in February 12th.  It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Buffalo, and just the 2nd game in 10 days for Toledo.  That’s a huge advantage. 

Buffalo has been vulnerable here of late, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with outright road losses to Northern Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and Bowling Green as 8-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites at Akron in a 6-point win. 

Toledo is 7-0 ATS after a game where they forced 8 or fewer turnovers this season.  Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Toledo Friday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Loyola-Marymount +20.5 

Gonzaga has been one of the best covering teams in college basketball this season.  They have made the betting public a lot of money by going 23-2 SU & 18-7 ATS this season.  And oddsmakers keep getting burned by this team.  At some point, they have to say enough is enough. 

I think that’s the case here with this game against Loyola-Marymount (17-8) Thursday.  Oddsmakers have made Gonzaga a whopping 20.5-point road favorite in this matchup.  It’s simply too much.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the WCC, and they shouldn’t be catching 20.5 points at home. 

That’s especially the case when you consider Loyola-Marymount only lost by 18 as 23.5-point dogs at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  If they can stay within 18 on the road, they should be able to stay within 20.5 at home.  They’ve lost by 19 or less in three of their last four meetings with the Zags, and this is the best team the Lions have had in years. 

I also think this is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge home win over their biggest rivals in the St. Mary’s Gaels.  If they were ever going to relax, it would be tonight off that win and knowing in the back of their minds they’ve already beaten the Lions by 18 once already this season.  They probably feel like they just have to show up to win, but the Lions will be laying it all on the line for sure. 

Loyola-Marymount is 10-2 SU at home this season with its two losses coming by 2 and 11 points.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  They are winning outright by 16.6 points per game in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games off three consecutive home games.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Thursday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn -8 

The Auburn Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They are coming off a tough 5-point loss at LSU, which obviously isn’t a bad loss considering LSU is one of the best teams in the country.  But they do want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 67-82 loss at Ole Miss in their first meeting. 

Auburn has been a different animal at home this season.  They are 12-1 SU at home this season while outscoring the opposition by a whopping 23.7 points per game.  Expect another blowout home victory in their favor tonight given their high intensity level with revenge in mind. 

Ole Miss has come back down to earth here of late.  The Rebels are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 14-point home loss to LSU, a 21-point road loss to Alabama and a 14-point home loss to Iowa State.  The Rebels are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning % above .600. 

The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS int heir last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Bet Auburn Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Bradley +2.5 

Bradley is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now coming into this game against Loyola-Chicago.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory against the Ramblers, who won the MVC last year and made the Final Four, but are a far cry from that team. 

Bradley is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Its five wins have come by an average of 13.0 points per game during this stretch, including a 96-67 home win over Indiana State on Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago played at Valpo on Sunday, meaning the Braves get an extra day to rest and prepare for the Ramblers in this one. 

Bradley upset Loyola-Chicago 69-67 as nearly identical 2-point home dogs last year.  And that was a better Ramblers team than the 2018-19 version.  And the Braves are a better version this season thanks to returning four starters.  And Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season in conference play, losing by 19 at Evansville, by 35 at Missouri State and by 8 at Illinois State.  They needed a huge comeback in the final minutes to beat Valpo by 5 on Sunday. 

Bradley is 9-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Braves are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  Bradley is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 13-3-2 ATS int heir last 18 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -1 

Illinois State just lost on a half-court buzzer beater at Missouri State on Sunday.  They’ve only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa, and I think they are still ‘hungover’ from that crushing defeat.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight. 

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a tough 69-70 loss at Illinois State as 5.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And the Panthers should get their revenge thanks in part because they actually have more time to rest and prepare for this game after last playing on Saturday. 

The Panthers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Illinois State is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this seres as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings. 

Illinois State is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Northern Iowa is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Redbirds.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +5.5 

This is a huge hangover spot for Northwestern.  They blew a double-digit lead against No. 20 Iowa in the final three minutes and lost on a 3-pointer by the Hawkeyes with 0.6 seconds left.  There’s no way they are motivated at all to come back home and face Rutgers now. 

It’s a Rutgers team they already beat by 8 on the road in their first meeting this season.  But the Sacrlet Knights were playing without their best player in that game.  They are without F Eugene Omoruyi, their leading scorer (14.2 PPG) and rebounding (7.4 RPG).  The Scarlet Knights want to be here more as they want revenge on the Wildcats. 

Rutgers has been playing much better since that loss and since getting Omoruyi back from injury.  They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games with their only two non-covers coming by 2.5 points each against Ohio State and Michigan State.  I like the fact that Rutgers has an extra day to prepare after playing on Saturday, while Northwestern played Iowa Sunday night. 

The Wildcats lost at home to Penn State in their last home game, handing the Nittany Lions their first conference win of the season.  Northwestern is 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games.  Rutgers is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple -4 

This is a very short number for the Temple Owls to be laying at home.  They are 9-2 at home this season and 17-7 overall.  The Owls are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament without having to win the conference tournament to get in.  They need a big finish to the regular season to accomplish that feat, and they certainly cannot afford a loss to SMU here. 

I think the Owls are laying a shorter number than they should be because they are coming off an ugly road loss at Tulsa by 18 points.  Well, Tulsa has been a great bet at home for the last several season.  And that loss will have the Owls highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.  Temple also has an extra day of rest after last playing on Saturday while SMU last played on Sunday. 

SMU has dropped four straight games coming in, including back-to-back upset home losses to USF and UCF.  The Mustangs have lost four straight true road games by an average of 10.3 points per game as well.  They are just 12-11 on the season now in what has clearly been a rebuilding year.  Their only shot to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the conference tournament.  I just don’t like where this team is at mentally right now. 

SMU is 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 games against a team with a winning record.  Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Mustangs are 0-6 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season. Bet Temple Wednesday.

20* Duke/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +8.5 

Duke is coming off a huge 81-71 win at Virginia in which they made everything.  They shot 57.8% from the floor and 13-for-21 (61.9%) from 3-point range, which was clearly an aberration for a team that shoots just 32% from deep on the season.  And now I think the Blue Devils are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers from that win over Virginia. 

Louisville has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  The Cardinals are 17-7 on the year, including 12-2 at home.  They are coming off a tough overtime road loss at Florida State, and I fully expect them to be highly motivated for a victory tonight with No. 2 Duke coming to town.  It will be a raucous atmosphere inside the KFC Yum Center for this one tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Louisville won 78-69 as 3.5-point favorites and 71-64 as 7-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Duke.  And the Cardinals are now catching a whopping 8.5 points tonight.  It’s too much. 

Duke is 2-9 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss.  Take Louisville Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. John’s -4 

It’s safe to say the St. John’s Red Storm will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They suffered a huge letdown off their upset win at Marquette with a 14-point home loss to Providence on Saturday.  That loss should have them re-focused, especially considering they want revenge from their 81-90 road loss at Butler on January 19th. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  St. John’s upset Butler 75-68 as 4.5-point dogs and 76-73 as 8-point dogs in its last two home meetings.  But this Butler team isn’t nearly as good as those versions, and this St. John’s team is the best it has been in years. 

St. John’s is 9-3 SU at home this season, while Butler is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The Bulldogs are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. John’s Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +3.5 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight off their huge 66-65 home win over Villanova on Saturday.  Now they hit the road a few days later and face a DePaul team they already beat by 10 at home.  They won’t be motivated at all for this game tonight. 

Conversely, DePaul wants revenge from that 69-79 road loss at Marquette on January 23rd.  And they way DePaul is playing right now, they should be able to pull the upset.  They beat Providence by 12 at home and Xavier by 12 on the road in their last two games to improve to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Blue Demons are also rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days here, while Marquette will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.  DePaul upset Marquette 70-62 at home as basically identical 3-point underdogs last year.   

Marquette has played six true road games this season and have been outscored by a total of 15 points in those six games.  The Blue Demons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with DePaul Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +2.5 

The Maryland Terrapins have a big edge in rest and preparation tonight.  They have had five days’ rest since last playing on Wednesday, while the Purdue Boilermakers only have two days’ rest after playing on Saturday. 

The Terrapins also have the edge in motivation tonight.  They will want to avenge their 60-62 road loss to Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Terrapins are 12-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Virginia & Seton Hall. They should be able to get their revenge tonight given the favorable spot for them.

Purdue is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  Two of those wins came in overtime at Penn State and at Wisconsin.  They lost by 19 at Michigan and lost by 18 at Michigan State, while also losing at Florida State and Texas. 

I certainly think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Purdue, which has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That’s the only reason the Boilermakers are favored here, but they shouldn’t be.  The Terrapins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Boilermakers.  Bet Maryland Tuesday.

20* Kansas/TCU ESPN No-Brainer on TCU -2.5 

This is finally the year where teams in the Big 12 are taking their turns beating a rare vulnerable Kansas team.  Now it is TCU’s turn tonight.  The Horned Frogs should be bigger home favorites over the Jayhawks, but the name ‘Kansas’ still gets respect from the betting public that it shouldn’t this season. 

Kansas is just 1-6 SU & 0-6-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Jayhawks lost at Arizona State, at Iowa State, at WVU, at Kentucky, at Texas and at Kansas State.  It was bad enough that they lost Udoka Azubuike (13.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to a season-ending injury at the start of Big 12 play, but now star G Legerald Vick (14.1 PPG, 46% 3-pointers) has taken a leave of absence, and Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG) remains out. 

TCU is feeling good after picking up one of the most impressive wins in the Big 12 this season with its 92-83 win at Iowa State as 9.5-point dogs over the weekend.  The Horned Frogs now want revenge from a 68-77 loss at Kansas on January 9th.  And they should get it at home this time around, where they are 11-1 SU this season. 

TCU is 9-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 13.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  TCU is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet TCU Monday.

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 31 games.  For a team with this kind of streak going, this is a pretty short number for the Cougars to be laying at home today against Cincinnati.  They’ll be highly motivated with the AAC regular season title basically on the line here as both teams enter 9-1 in conference play. 

But I think there’s a big difference between these teams.  Houston is 9-1 in conference play and outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game, while Cincinnati is only outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game during its 9-1 start to the conference season. 

Cincinnati has simply been fortunate in close games this season, especially of late.  The Bearcats’ last three wins have all come by 5 points or less, and they’ve now won six straight games that were decided by 8 points or fewer since losing 71-73 to ECU as 17.5-point favorites.  They will meet their match tonight in Houston, the best team in the AAC. 

Houston is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Cougars are 8-0 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  They play their best against the best teams.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home today.  Roll with Houston Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -2.5 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from a 65-60 road loss to Indiana State as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 5th.  I think they’ll have their revenge with an easy win and cover as only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Bradley comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Braves are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They went on the road and upset Southern Illinois as 7-point dogs, blew out Illinois State by 17 as 1-point home dogs, won by 8 at Evansville as 2.5-point dogs and won at Northern Iowa by 8 as 5-point dogs.  That’s four upset wins in their last six games in which they’ve been a dog in all six.  This team is clearly undervalued right now. 

Indiana State is not playing well at all.  The Sycamores are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Both of their wins came at home against Valpo and Evansville.  They also lost at home to Drake and Loyola-Chicago, and are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 15 at Southern Illinois, by 14 at Illinois Stat and by 5 at Northern Iowa, which are three teams that Bradley has already beaten this season. 

Bradley is 8-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 5-15 ATS in all games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia -2 

Virginia is 20-1 this season with its only loss coming 70-72 at Duke on January 19th.  Now, it’s time for the Cavaliers to revenge their only loss this season at home this time around.  I think we are getting great value on the Cavaliers as only 2-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Virginia is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  Duke’s four ACC road games have come against Wake Forest, FSU, Pitt and Notre Dame, basically the bottom of the barrel.  And the only decent team they faced on the road was FSU, and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Seminoles 80-78. 

Virginia is 10-1 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS off a home non-cover where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 27.7 points per game in this spot.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cavaliers are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1 

By losing three straight and five of their last seven overall, the Oklahoma Sooners have fallen to 15-8 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament.  They need a signature win, and today is a great chance to get one against a Top 25 opponent in Texas Tech. 

The Sooners suffered a heartbreaking 74-75 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  But Texas Tech isn’t as good as Iowa State, so this is a much more winnable game for them.  It’s also a revenge game after losing 59-66 at Texas Tech as 7-point dogs in a game they led the entire way until the closing minutes.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at home today. 

Oklahoma is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  Texas Tech has had some very ugly road losses recently in Big 12 play.  Indeed, the Red Raiders are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 road games.  They lost by 11 at Baylor as 4-point favorites, by 13 at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs and by 16 at Kansas as 4.5-point dogs. 

Oklahoma is 17-4 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings and is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Sooners are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Marquette -1.5 

Marquette is coming off its first home loss of the season in a tough 69-70 setback to St. John’s.  No question St. John’s is a quality team, but I think it was more Marquette overlooking them and looking ahead to this huge showdown with Villanova than anything.  And I think the Golden Eagles are getting undervalued now after that defeat. 

The Golden Eagles are still 14-1 at home this season.  And now they’ll get back on track against a Villanova team that it’s time to ’sell high’ on.  The Wildcats are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are overvalued due to this winning streak and from winning the national title last year.  They haven’t beaten very many quality teams during this streak as their four road games have come against Providence, Creighton, Butler and DePaul during it. 

Marquette gets an extra day to prepare for Villanova after last playing on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, Villanova needed overtime to beat Creighton 66-59 at home on Wednesday.  Now the Wildcats only have two days’ rest and are coming off an OT game obviously.  It’s just a great situation for the Golden Eagles on extra rest and coming off a loss. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Marquette is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -6 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines today.  They want revenge from their 54-64 upset loss as 3-point favorites at Wisconsin a few weeks back.  And now they are only 6-point home favorites in the rematch.  When you adjust for home-court advantage based on that first line, they should be 9-point favorites or more. 

But Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which is why the line has been adjusted so much.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who aren’t very good but have been winning close game after close game during this stretch.  I expect them to get blown out of the building by the much superior, revenge-minded Wolverines today. 

Michigan is 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game.  The Wolverines are a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  The Wolverines get an extra day of rest after playing on Tuesday while the Badgers played in Minnesota on Wednesday.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -2.5 

Don’t look now but the Clemson Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season and at 14-8, have a great shot to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at NC State as 5-point dogs.  They have blasted Pitt by 13, Wake by 27 and Georgia Tech by 23 since that defeat. 

Virginia Tech is going the other direction due to an injury to its best player.  The Hokies are without Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) and have been without him the last two games.  Their offense has struggled to get anything going without their floor general as they managed just 47 points against NC State and 64 against Louisville in their two games without him.  This is a team that averages 76.7 PPG on the season. 

Clemson is 10-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 19.3 points per game in this spot.  Take Clemson Saturday. 

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +19 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are starting to just go through the motions.  The competition is so weak in the WCC that it’s easy to do.  But due to their 21-2 record and No. 4 ranking, they are consistently laying huge numbers in this conference.  And this one is too big. 

The Bulldogs have failed to cover three of their last five as 23-point favorites against Loyola-Marymount, 28-point favorites against Portland and 23-point favorites against San Diego.  Well, now they’re up against arguably the second-best team in the conference in San Francisco, and they’re laying a whopping 19 points.  It’s simply too much. 

That’s especially the case when you consider the Dons actually led Gonzaga by two points with under four minutes to play in San Francisco on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  But the Bulldogs close on a 17-2 run and posted a misleading 96-83 victory.  You can bet the Dons want some revenge tonight.   

Few teams have played Gonzaga as close as the Dons as three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer.  San Francisco is 17-5 this season, and all five losses came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer against teams not named Gonzaga. 

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Gonzaga) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1997.  Bet San Francisco Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +2.5 

The Houston Cougars are the 12th-ranked team in the country with their 21-1 start to the season.  But they have benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  For starters, they have played 16 of their 22 games at home this season.  And now they face their stiffest road test of the season tonight. 

UCF is 16-4 this season and one of the best teams in the AAC.  They will be highly motivated tonight with a Top 25 team coming to town.  If they want any shot at winning the AAC, this is a must-win game for them.  It could also help their tournament resume, while Houston is safely in. 

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  They have beaten the likes of Alabama, Illinois State, Temple, Tulsa and UConn at home this year.  Their only home loss came by a single point back in their second game of the season. 

The Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  UCF is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with UCF Thursday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +4.5 

The Memphis Tigers are coming off back-to-back road losses to Tulsa and South Florida.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face a Top 25 team in Cincinnati.  I fully expect the Tigers to pull off the upset tonight. 

Cincinnati has been extremely fortunate in close games lately, which has them overvalued.  They have won seven straight coming in, but four of those wins came by 5 points or fewer, and six of them came by 11 points or less.  They’ve haven’t been impressive at all in their last four road games, losing outright to ECU as 17.5-point favorites, needing OT to beat Tulsa by 5, needing a huge second half comeback to beat Temple by 4, and also getting a huge second half to turn a deficit into a win at Wichita State. 

Memphis has been a completely different team at home this season.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this year, scoring 89.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting.  Their only home loss came to current No. 1 ranked Tennessee by 10.  They beat UCF by 20 as 1-point favorites and SMU by 22 as 3-point favorites in their last two home games, two of the most impressive results in the AAC this season. 

Memphis is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 games off two straight conference losses.  Cincinnati is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after it was called for 10 or fewer fouls.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Memphis Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +3 

It’s clearly time to ’sell high’ on the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and lay points to a Minnesota team with an identical 16-6 record as them.  It’s clearly a sign that the Badgers are overvalued now. 

Let’s just look at the line compared to the last time these teams played.  Minnesota won outright 59-52 at Wisconsin as 9-point dogs.  And now Wisconsin is getting way too much respect again as 3-point road favorites. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how well Minnesota has played at home this season.  The Gophers are 12-1 SU at home.  The Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Minnesota Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5 

This is a revenge game for Missouri State.  They lost by 5 on the road to Southern Illinois in their first meeting this season.  And they’ve actually lost nine straight in this series to the Salukis.  It’s safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory at home Wednesday night. 

Missouri State is 8-2 at home this season.  Its last two home games were probably two of the most impressive wins in the Missouri Valley this season.  They beat Bradley by 18 in their last home game, 55-37.  But the one that stands out is their 70-35 win over a Loyola-Chicago team that made the Final Four last year and is arguably still the best team in the conference this year.   

It’s the same Loyola-Chicago team that beat Southern Illinois by 25 a few weeks back.  And when you compare common opponents this season, it’s easy to see that the Bears are the better team.  They’ve played 10 games against teams that Southern Illinois has also faced.  They are outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game in those 10 games, while Southern Illinois is actually getting outscored by 0.8 points per game. 

The Bears are outscoring their opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this season.  Southern Illinois is 4-14 ATS vs. good shooting teams that shoot 45% or better over the last two seasons.  The Salukis are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Missouri State Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -4 

I love the spot for Providence tonight.  They are back home after a brutal stretch in which they played four of their last five games on the road.  And they will be seeking revenge on a Georgetown team that beat them 96-90 (OT) in their first meeting this season. 

Georgetown grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat twice in that first meeting.  They banked in a 3-pointer to force the first overtime, and hit another 3-pointer in the final seconds to force a second overtime, where they eventually won by 6.  You can bet these Friars players have not forgotten and want their revenge. 

It was a rare win for the Hoyas in this series.  Indeed, Providence is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Friars get one extra day to prepare too after playing on Saturday, while Georgetown lost at Villanova on Sunday.  The Hoyas were tied with the Wildcats late but went on an awful run to close.  They could easily suffer a hangover from that defeat against the defending national champs now. 

Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 14-3 ATS reining a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last three years.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -2.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren’t even ranked right now despite being 16-5 on the season and 6-2 in Big 12 play.  And they just recently got healthy, which has led to them playing their best basketball of the season. 

Indeed, the Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  They have gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State during this stretch with two of those wins coming by double-digits.  They’ve also beaten WVU, TCU (by 10) and Texas Tech (by 13) at home.  Now they’ll be highly motivated for a win here against their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks. 

Kansas is more vulnerable then I can remember for quite some time.  They lost big man Udoka Azubuike for the season entering Big 12 play, and now they are also without fellow starter Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG).  The Jayhawks have lost three of their last five games overall with all three losses coming on the road at WVU, Kentucky and Texas. 

Kansas State is 10-1 SU at home this season.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 games.  This is the Wildcats’ best chance to beat Kansas in quite some time, and I expect them to take full advantage at home tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2 

The Syracuse Orange are playing too well right now to only be 2-point home favorites over the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  Syracuse is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall with.  That includes road wins over Duke, ND, Pitt and BC as well as home wins over Clemson, Pitt and Miami. 

Florida State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seminoles lost three straight to Duke, Pitt and BC before winning three straight against Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech and are getting too much respect for their three-game winning streak.  The Seminoles are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in ACC true road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Syracuse is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with FSU winning by 10, 13 and 13 points. 

The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Florida State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.  Take Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle -1.5 

The La Salle Explorers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball right now due to their 6-14 SU record.  Bettors see that record and automatically want nothing to do with them.  But a closer look shows that they are way better than that record would indicate, and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them. 

La Salle played a brutal non-conference schedule, but that prepared them for the Atlantic 10 season.  And the Explorers have been a money maker for weeks now.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They have won three in a row outright as underdogs coming in with road wins at Fordham and Richmond, as well as a home win over UMass. 

Conversely, St. Joe’s has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Hawks are 10-12 SU & 7-14 ATS this season.  They are just 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS in all road games, including 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in true road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  The Explorers basically just have to win to cover here as 1.5-point favorites.  The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3 

The Northwestern Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back road losses to Wisconsin and Maryland.  Now they should be able to get right against the worst team in the Big Ten in Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Purdue, and I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat.  This is a real deflated team right now mentally having not won a conference game yet. 

Penn State is 0-6 SU in true road games this season.  Northwestern is 9-3 SU In home games.  The home team won both meetings last season with Northwestern winning by 9 and Penn State winning by 15.  And I think the Wildcats have extra motivation after losing to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Tournament last year. 

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Nittany Lions are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +14 

The UConn Huskies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 14-point home favorites over the East Carolina Pirates.  For a team that is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall, the Huskies sure are getting a lot off respect here. 

East Carolina has played some of the best teams in the AAC very tough this season.  They beat Cincinnati outright as 17.5-point home underdogs.  They only lost by 6 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs and by 11 at UCF as 16.5-point dogs.  UConn has already lost to both Cincinnati and UCF this season as well and has yet to play Memphis. 

ECU has UConn’s number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Last year, they only lost by 4 as 6.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 16.5-point road dogs.  The year before, they beat UConn by 4 as 3-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 9-point road dogs. 

UConn is 0-7 ATS after four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +12 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from the Purdue Boilermakers.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 57-59 as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan.  If they can hang with Michigan on the road, they can certainly hang with Purdue. 

The Boilermakers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them.  They needed overtime to beat Penn State on Thursday, and now they have only had two days to get ready for Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers come in on three days’ rest off their 11-point home win over Illinois on Wednesday. 

The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Minnesota Sunday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -1 

It’s safe to say Illinois State is going to be highly motivated for a victory over Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  Illinois State had its NCAA Tournament bid taken away by Loyola-Chicago in the MVC Championship Game last year, and the Ramblers turned that into a Final Four run. 

Then, in their first meeting this year, Loyola-Chicago won a hard-fought 67-64 game at home over Illinois State as 9-point favorites.  It was a fourth straight victory for the Ramblers in this series.  Now the Redbirds will be more motivated to win this game than any this season.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home tonight. 

Illinois State is 9-2 at home this season.  The Redbirds are playing very well coming in, going 4-1 in their last five games, including their 14-point win at Drake last time out.  Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season.  The Ramblers are 2-3 SU in their last five true road games with a bad loss at St. Joe’s, and blowout road losses at Missouri State by 35 and Evansville by 19. 

The Ramblers just lost fourth-leading scorer Lucas Williamson (8.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) to a hand injury.  He won’t be back until late-February.  The Redbirds are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -4.5 

It’s a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Marshall Thundering Herd today.  They have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they have lost three of their last four straight up.  But it’s worth noting that all three losses were on the road. 

Marshall is back home here where it is much more comfortable.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game on the season.  UTSA is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games, getting upset at Middle Tennessee, and losing by 10 at UAB and by 8 at WKU. 

Marshall is 36-18 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Thundering Herd are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Marshall) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points in their last five games are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

15* St. John’s/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +17.5 

The St. John’s Red Storm have to feel disrespected being this big of underdogs to Duke Saturday.  This is a Red Storm team that is 16-5 this season with all five losses coming by 11 points or less.  They’ve essentially had a chance to win every game they’ve played, and I think they’ll give Duke a run for its money today. 

I’ve been real impressed with how well St. John’s has played on the road this season.  The Red Storm are 3-3 in true road games this season with their losses coming to Seton Hall (by 2), Villanova (by 5) and Butler (by 9). They’ve beaten Creighton (by 16), Rutgers (by 19) and Georgetown (by 3) on the highway this year. 

Duke has been vulnerable in recent home games.  They lost outright to Syracuse 91-95 as 17-point favorites, and they needed a big 2nd half surge to beat Georgia Tech 66-53 as 22.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Virginia by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games. 

St. John’s is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Red Storm are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a game where they attempted 7 or fewer free throws.  St. John’s is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents, which includes their upset of Duke last season.  Duke is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big East foes. 

Plays against any team (Duke) - off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent against a team that’s off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. John’s Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Not much was expected of them this season, and yet they’ve gone 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS on the year.  And they’re still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as a pick ‘em at home against Memphis. 

The Bulls have been really good at home this season, going 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game and 40.2% shooting on their home floor.  They have home wins over UConn by 8, Tulane by 18 and Wichita State by 13 in league play.  Their only loss came to Houston, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

South Florida has a huge rest advantage in this game.  They are working on six days’ rest, while Memphis will be working on just two days’ rest and will be playing its 2nd road game in 4 days.  The Tigers will also be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, while USF will be playing just its 2nd game in 11 days. 

Memphis is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at Tulane by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  The Tigers lost by 9 at LSU, by 13 at Houston, by 9 at Temple and by 16 at Tulsa.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 AAC games.  South Florida is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Plays against an underdog (Memphis) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) after 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with South Florida Saturday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State -2 

The NC State Wolfpack have lost two of their last three games coming in.  They lost by seven at Louisville and by one in overtime at home to Virginia.  Those aren’t bad losses.  The Wolfpack are 16-5 on the season with all five losses coming by 8 points or less.  They have come back to win in their next game following each loss this season. 

The Wolfpack are 12-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in UNC and Virginia.  They are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game at home this year.  They should be laying more than two points to Virginia Tech here. 

The Hokies have some serious injury concerns coming into this game.  Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) suffered a toe injury last game and is doubtful to play today.  He is their floor general and shoots 47.5% from the field and 82.5% from the free throw line, so he will be missed.  Key reserve P.J. Horne (4.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is also expected to miss this game. 

Virginia Tech has played five true road games this season.  The Hokies are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this year.  Their only wins came by 3 at Georgia Tech as 7-point favorites and by 12 at Miami as 8-point favorites; two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They lost by 22 at Virginia and by 21 at North Carolina.  They were also upset by Penn State on the road, and Penn State still hasn’t won a Big Ten game. 

The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  NC State has won its last three home meetings with Virginia Tech by an average of 15.3 points per game.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  It’s also worth noting the Wolfpack are working on three days’ rest while the Hokies are only on two days’ rest.  Bet NC State Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are seeking revenge from a 75-81 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season earlier this month.  They should have their revenge at home this time around as only 2.5-point favorites. 

While Georgetown is just 6-4 in its last 10 games overall, all four losses have come by 6 points or less and by a combined 16 points.  This team is much better than its 13-7 record would indicate, but they’ve just had some poor luck in close games.  Six of their seven losses have come by single-digits. 

Xavier is clearly a rebuilding team at 11-10 this season.  The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with losses by 15, 15, 18 and 10 points.  Their only road win came at lowly DePaul. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts this season.  The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week this season.  Roll with Georgetown Thursday.

20* USC/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +7.5 

This number jumped out to me right away as being too high.  I think it’s inflated because Washington has been a covering machine of late.  Indeed, the Huskies have won nine straight and have covered seven straight coming in.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Huskies tonight. 

USC is playing too good right now to be catching 7.5 points from Washington. The Trojans have won three straight coming in by 13 over UCLA, by 23 over Arizona and by 2 over Arizona State.  They had some injuries earlier in the season, but now they are as healthy as they’ve been all year, and it’s starting to show. 

The Trojans are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming on the road to Oregon and Oregon State, including one of those in overtime.  And USC hasn’t lost to Washington by more than 8 points in any of their last 10 meetings. 

Mike Hopkins is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less as the coach of Washington.  USC is 71-37 ATS in its last 108 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Trojans are 9-2 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  Bet USC Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3 

The Boston College Eagles come in playing well having gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They also upset Florida State 87-82 as 7-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch. 

Syracuse is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  But they’ve benefited from a home-heavy schedule during this stretch with six of those nine games at home.  And they lost by 22 at Virginia Tech over the weekend. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the past few seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, with Boston College winning by 15 and 15 in its two home meetings with Syracuse.  The Eagles have a big edge in rest here as this will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. 

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  Boston College is 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games overall rate last two seasons.  The Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 ACC games.  Roll with Boston College Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -1.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2 at home this season and have wins over the likes of Kentucky and Ole Miss in conference play already. 

Mississippi State is ranked in the Top 25 at 15-4 this season, but the Bulldogs have benefited from an easy early schedule.  Their true colors have shown in SEC play as they are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS.  They lost two of their three true road gams at South Carolina (by 5) and at Kentucky (by 21).  Their only road win came at lowly Vanderbilt. 

Alabama is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Mississippi State with its only loss coming 63-67 on the road last season.  Dating back further, the Crimson Tide are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Bulldogs. 

Alabama is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  Mississippi State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -3 

This feels like a great time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska and ’sell high’ on Wisconsin tonight.  Nebraska has lost three straight and failed to cover the spread in all three against Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State coming in.  Now the Huskers are in desperate need of a victory and should play with a chip on their shoulder at home tonight. 

Wisconsin has won three straight and covered three straight coming in.  They beat both Michigan and Northwestern at home, while also winning at Illinois.  But they had lost four of their previous five games and I think this run is more of an aberration than anything.  This Wisconsin team just isn’t very good with few playmakers outside of Ethan Happ. 

Nebraska is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its lsat four meetings with Wisconsin.  It’s only loss came in overtime by a single point.  The Huskers won by 11 and by 12 in their two road meetings during this stretch, and by 4 at home.  I think they should have no problem winning by at least 4 points at home here Tuesday night given how motivated they’ll be. 

Nebraska is 20-2 SU in its last 22 home games.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite or PK over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Wisconsin.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -1 

These aren’t the same Kansas Jayhawks that we’ve been accustomed to seeing for years.  This is actually the worst Kansas team that I can remember, and a lot of that has to do with the season-ending injury to their star big man in Udoka Azubuike.  They lack an inside presence and aren’t nearly as physical as most former Kansas teams. 

It’s been obvious to see that the Jayhawks have been overrated most of the season.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations since Big 12 play started.  The Jayhawks are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Arizona State, Iowa State, WVU and Kentucky. 

Texas certainly wants revenge from its 78-80 loss at Kansas as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  I think getting the Jayhawks at home this time around will make all the difference.  Adding to Texas’ motivation is the fact that it is off back-to-back road losses at TCU and Georgia and will be glad to be back home here Tuesday night. 

Texas is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Texas) - revenging a close loss of 3 points or less, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Take Texas Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +8.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been flying under the radar since SEC play started.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset Florida as 12.5-point road dogs, upset Mississippi State as 6-point home dogs, rolled Missouri by 10 at home, upset Vanderbilt as 4-point road dogs, and upset Auburn as 8-point home dogs. 

Now the Gamecocks will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face the No. 1 team in the country in Tennessee.  And with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are tough for the Vols to live up to.  That has shown here of late as they only beat Alabama by 3 as 13-point home favorites and needed OT to beat Vanderbilt on the road as 9.5-point favorites.  They did beat WVU at home by 17, but only covered by 2 and WVU is one of the worst teams in the Big 12. 

South Carolina is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tennessee.  The two losses came by 7 points at home and by 3 points on the road.  The three wins came by 26, 10 and 27 points.  The Gamecocks clearly have the Vols’ number and should not be catching 8.5 points to them at home tonight. 

South Carolina is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 SEC games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where they were called for five-plus less fouls than their opponent.  Rick Barnes is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games as the coach of the Vols.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

Loyola-Chicago is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 35-70 shocker at the hands of Missouri State on the road.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home Sunday to face Southern Illinois. 

It was a rare poor performance for the Ramblers, who made the Final Four last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  They had won five of their previous six games with four of those victories coming by 8 points or more.  That performance against Missouri State was clearly an aberration. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-3 at home this season and winning by 13.8 points per game.  Southern Illinois has lost four of its last five and shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Ramblers won their two meetings with Southern Illinois by 14 at home and 19 on the road last year. 

Plays on any team (Loyola) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 points or more total ion their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 54-17 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -1.5 

The Memphis Tigers are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game at home this year.  And as only 1.5-point favorites over UCF, they basically just have to win to cover today. 

UCF certainly isn’t playing all that well coming in.  The Knights are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They failed to cover at home against ECU, lost at Wichita State 67-75 as favorites, only beat Tulsa by 2 as 10-point home favorites, and won in a blowout against the worst team in the AAC in Tulane. 

Memphis is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 8.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

15* Syracuse/VA Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -6 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Virginia Tech Hokies today.  They have failed to cover the spread in five straight games coming in.  They have also lost two of their last three, so they will be highly motivated for a victory. 

It’s hard to blame the Hokies for their two road losses at Virginia and UNC, two of the best teams in the country.  But now they’re back home Saturday where they are 10-0 SU & 6-4 ATS on the season while outscoring opponents by a whopping 28.7 points per game on their home floor. 

Syracuse is at a huge schedule disadvantage here.  The Orange will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after a home win over Miami on Thursday.  Virginia Tech comes in on four days’ rest having last played on Monday.  And it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Orange, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Syracuse is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots.  The Orange are 4-16 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.   

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Virginia Tech) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1 

The USC Trojans are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with an average margin of victory of 19.3 points per game. 

That includes a 4-0 home mark in conference play with wins over Cal by 9, Stanford by 11, UCLA by 13 and Arizona by 23.  The Trojans have been rolling since getting healthy after a poor start to the season.  And I think they are still undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over Arizona State today. 

The Sun Devils are just 3-2 in true road games this season with their wins coming over Georgia by 2, lowly Cal, and lowly UCLA.  They lost at Vanderbilt by 16 and lost at Stanford by 14.  This will easily be their toughest road test yet here Saturday. 

Arizona Strate is 0-7 ATS off a road win over a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last 3 years.  Bet USC Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2 

The Oregon State Beavers have been a juggernaut at home this season.  They are 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes wins over USC by 5, UCLA by 13 and Washington State by 13 in their three Pac-12 home games. 

Now the Beavers are only laying two points at home against Washington in a game that they basically just have to win to cover.  And the Huskies are in a bad spot here having to play their 2nd road game in 3 days. 

It’s a Washington team that is improved this season, but one that is also clearly overvalued right now after winning eight straight and covering six straight coming in.  They have beaten up on the Pac-12 bottom feeders as they’ve easily had the easiest conference schedule of anyone thus far.  It gets much tougher on the road at Oregon State Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  And the Beavers basically just have to win to cover here.  The Huskies are 2-9 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.  Washington is also just 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5 

The Wisconsin Badgers are laying way too many points today against Northwestern.  They don’t have the firepower to cover these big spreads on a regular basis, and they mirror Northwestern with the way that they like to play, which is slow down offense and solid defense. 

The Badgers come into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their back-to-back wins over Michigan and Illinois.  They covered the spread in both games as well.  But keep in mind they had gone 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five games.  They aren’t all of a sudden a juggernaut. 

Northwestern is playing well since getting their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  The Wildcats went on the road and beat Rutgers 65-57 as 2.5-point favorites, and took care of business at home in a 73-66 win over Indiana as 2-point favorites.  And they will certainly be playing the underdog card here against Wisconsin. 

Home-court advantage hasn’t meant anything in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Northwestern has won outright as an underdog in its last two trips to Wisconsin, winning 60-52 as a 2.5-point road dog last season and 66-59 as an 11.5-point road dog the year before. 

Wisconsin is 1-10 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Take Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -4.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are showing that they are contenders in the Big 12 when healthy.  Since getting two key players back from injury, they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.   

The Wildcats have gone on the road and upset both Iowa State and Oklahoma, and they’ve taken care of business at home against TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  And now they should have no problem going on the road and covering this short number against Texas A&M. 

The Texas A&M Aggies are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They are just 7-10 SU & 7-10 ATS on the season.  They have lost six of their last seven coming in with their lone victory coming by a ginned point.  They have lost by 9 points or more in five of those six losses, so they’ve rarely even been competitive. 

Texas A&M is 1-9 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas State is 10-2 ATS off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

20* Butler/Creighton Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -2.5 

The Creighton Bluejays will be out for revenge from their 69-84 loss at Butler on January 5th earlier this month in their first meeting.  I expect them to get their revenge here as they have a big advantage in rest and preparation for this one. 

The Bluejays will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here.  It will be the 5th game in 13 days for Butler, which has already played seven games in the month of January, while the Blue Jays have only played five games this month. 

Butler has not fared well at all in true road games this season.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season with their only win coming at DePaul, which is one of the worst teams in the Big East.  Their four losses have come by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Creighton has won its last three home meetings with Butler by 11, 11 and 8 points.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings dating back further.   

The Bulldogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games. Butler is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Creighton.  Butler is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Bet Creighton Friday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season.  They are ready to knock off a team that caliber of Michigan State, especially since they’re at home tonight.  And they are certainly playing well enough to pull the upset coming in. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Purdue.  The Hawkeyes are 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game.  They have recent blowout home wins over Illinois by 24, Ohio State by 10, Nebraska by 9 and Iowa State by 14. 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on Michigan State, which has now won 12 straight while going 11-1 ATS.  The betting public has been all over them, and oddsmakers are forced to set their lines higher than they should be in the immediate future.  They struggled to put Florida, Nebraska and Ohio State away on the road this season, and they lost at Louisville.  I fully expect Iowa to give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s also a revenge game for the Hawkeyes after losing 68-90 at Michigan State earlier this season.  Last year, Iowa only lost 93-96 at home to Michigan State as 10-point dogs.  And the Hawkeyes are a lot better this season.  Iowa is 12-3 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons, and 8-1 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two years. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less in three straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 4-14 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team that forces 12 or fewer per game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +14 

I love the spot for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight.  They will want revenge from a 65-70 (OT) home loss to Cincinnati on January 10th exactly two weeks ago today.  They were 6.5-point dogs in that game, and now they are whopping 14-point road dogs in the rematch.  This is simply too many points. 

Tulsa is way better than they are getting credit for tonight.  They only lost at UCF by 2 as 10-point road dogs last time out.  UCF is one of the best teams in the AAC.  They also have upset wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State this season, and they covered in losses to Cincinnati and Nevada.  They’re battle-tested and ready to go into Cincinnati and try to pull the upset here. 

Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes the non-cover against Tulsa.  But they were also upset by ECU as 17.5-point favorites, they only beat UConn by 2 at home as 11.5-point favorites, and they only beat USF at home by 8 as 13.5-point favorites.  They did cover as 5-point favorites at Wichita State, but they weren’t covering until a double technical in the final minutes that resulted in six straight free throws for the Bearcats.  They made all six and the rest was history. 

Tulsa easily covered as 17-point road dogs at Cincinnati last year in an 8-point loss.  And Tulsa is better than they were a year ago, while Cincinnati is a lot worse.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS after playing two straight games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Tulsa is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less this season.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Tulsa Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -1.5 

TCU should be highly motivated for a win after losing three of its last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road to Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas State.  Their only home game during this stretch resulted in a 31-point blowout of West Virginia. 

I feel like this is a get right game for the Horned Frogs.  They are 8-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points per game.  They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  TCU is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss as well. 

Texas has also lost three of its last four coming in.  The Longhorns lost on the road to Kansas and Oklahoma State, and also lost at home to Texas Tech.  They only beat Oklahoma by 3 as 5-point home favorites, and they are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS I the last seven meetings.  TCU has won three straight home meetings with Texas, including the last two by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

TCU is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 2-11 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two years.  TCU is 8-1 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss over the last two years.  They are bouncing back to win by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio State +1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes have certainly burnt me in recent weeks.  They have lost four straight, and I’ve been on them for three of those losses.  But I’m back on them again here in a must-win game against the Purdue Boilermakers if they want to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes as home underdogs here.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Boilermakers, who have won six of their last seven coming in.  But five of those wins were at home.  They needed overtime to beat Wisconsin on the road, and they also lost to Michigan State by 18 on the road.  The Boilermakers are just 1-4 SU in true road games this season. 

Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Purdue is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

15* Duke/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +13 

The Duke Blue Devils are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a huge win over top-ranked Virginia 72-70 on Saturday.  They put a lot of emotion into that game, and they will be hard-pressed to match that effort here on the road at Pittsburgh.  That’s going to make it tough for them to put away this feisty Panthers team by more than 13 points. 

Pittsburgh has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Panthers have gone 12-6 SU & 12-5 ATS this season as first-year head coach Jeff Capel has done an excellent job of implementing quality transfers.  And you can bet Capel wants to beat his mentor in Coach K as he served as an assistant at Duke for eight seasons prior to joining Pitt. 

The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  They have already upset Florida State 75-62 as 4-point dogs and upset Louisville 89-86 as 3-point dogs in ACC play this season at home.  And Duke is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers of late, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games, all of which were decided by 4 points or fewer against FSU, Syracuse and Virginia. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Duke) - off a win by 6 points or less are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season.  The Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern PK 

I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight.  They will be seeking revenge from a tough 66-68 road loss at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 1st.  Now they have a shot at revenge at home this time around, and they only have to win the game to cover. 

Indiana has lost four straight while going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those four losses came by double-digits, and their only win during this stretch came five games back at home against the worst team in the Big Ten in Illinois. 

Northwestern gets an extra day of rest and preparation here having last played on Friday, while Indiana last played on Saturday in a 15-point loss at Purdue.  It will also be just the 2nd game in 9 days for the Wildcats, who recently got their best player in Vic Law back from injury.  He means everything to this team. 

Indiana is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming by two points at Penn State.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday. 

15* Texas Tech/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats battled injuries through most of the season.  But now they are fully healthy, and they are starting to show their potential.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and blasted TCU by 10 at home. 

The Wildcats’ only loss during this stretch came back when they were missing a couple players in a 57-63 road loss at Texas Tech as 11.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 despite shooting 33.3% overall and 4-for-23 (17.4%) from 3-point range.  Now healthy, the Wildcats want their revenge on the Red Raiders at home this time around. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings, and the Wildcats basically just have to win this game to cover.  The Red Raiders are coming off a home loss to Iowa State and an 11-point road loss at Baylor, and I think they are way overvalued right now. 

That has been evident with the fact that the Red Raiders are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Texas Tech is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 Big 12 games.  The Wildcats are 28-11-3 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Texas Tech is 0-8 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Kansas State is 22-3 ATS in its last 25 home games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Take Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest.  Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points. 

One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70.  That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year. 

Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year.  Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin.  They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season.  Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team. 

Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins.  Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -3 

The Drake Bulldogs are worth a bet at home today against the Missouri State Bears.  This Drake team has been one of the most underrated in the country all season.  That’s evident by the fact that they’ve gone 12-4 ATS in their 16 lined games.  They are also 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, winning by 15.1 points per game on average. 

Missouri State is clearly down this season.  The Bears have gone 8-10 SU and 7-10 ATS in their 17 lined games.  That includes a 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS mark in all games played away from home.  The Bears should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Missouri State is 0-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Drake is 23-8-1 ATS in its lsat 32 home games.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13 

I love the spot for Oklahoma State today.  The Cowboys want revenge form a 63-69 home loss to Iowa State as 4-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And now they are catching a whopping 13 points in the rematch here. 

Oklahoma State has been very competitive on the road this season.  They have played five true road games, and they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points.  They also won outright at West Virginia 85-77 as 7-point dogs.  I think they are being devalued after getting upset by Baylor at home last time out, but Baylor shot 15-for-25 from 3-point range so there wasn’t much they could do in their 79-83 loss. 

Iowa State is in a massive letdown spot off its upset road win over Top 10 opponent Texas Tech.  They lost outright to Kansas State as 8.5-point favorites in their previous home game.  Oklahoma State hasn’t lost any of its last five trips to Ames by more than 11 points.  And it’s worth noting the Cowboys get extra rest here having last played on the 14th, while the Cyclones played on the 16th. 

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning these games by 3.7 points per game on average.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3 

The Memphis Tigers are 9-1 at home this season.  They should be able to handle their business as only 3-point home favorites against SMU, which has gone 1-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. 

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.   

The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Memphis Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

Off back-to-back road losses, the USC Trojans return home Saturday.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column, which saw them win four straight at home prior to those road losses.  The Trojans are now 8-2 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 14.6 points pre game. 

The UCLA Bruins are just 1-2 in true road games, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  They will be playing their 3rd consecutive road games, which is tough for any college basketball team.  Home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. 

USC is 20-6 ATS after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  UCLA is 1-4 ATS in tis last five road games.  The Bruins are 7-19 ATS int heir last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with USC Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

This is a good time to ‘buy low’ on Indiana and ’sell high’ on Purdue.  The Hoosiers have lost three straight coming in, though they were competitive in road losses to Michigan and Maryland, two of the top teams in the Big Ten and two teams that are better than Purdue. 

Purdue comes in overvalued after winning five of its last six games overall.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule with home wins over Ohio, Belmont, Iowa and Rutgers, as well as a road win at Wisconsin in overtime.  They lost by 18 at Michigan State in their lone loss. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, and all five by 11 points or fewer.  The Boilermakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  Purdue is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +8 

This is a dream spot to fade Syracuse.  The Orange are coming off a massive 95-91 win at Duke as 17-point dogs.  Now it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown at home today against Pitt.  They won’t be nearly as focused against Pitt as they were against Duke, which is going to make it difficult to cover this 8-point spread. 

It also works in our favor that Pitt has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job of implementing transfers, and the Panthers have gone 12-5 SU & 12-4 ATS this season.  They have outright wins as underdogs over the likes of FSU, Louisville, and Saint Louis, and three of their five losses came by 6 points or less, including two by exactly one point. 

Syracuse has played better on the road than at home.  The Orange have been upset at home by Buffalo, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech this season.  They also have neutral court losses to Oregon and UConn, and they only beat Georgetown by one as 9.5-point favorites.  They will struggle to putt away Pitt given the spot. 

The Panthers are 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings, and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to Syracuse.  Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Panthers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The Orange are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Saturday games.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games where they attempted 10 or fewer shots than their opponents.  Pitt is 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Take Pittsburgh. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +5.5 

Wichita State has improved a ton since the beginning of the season, which is a testament to head coach Gregg Marshall.  The Shockers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late and they’ve held their own.  They took Temple to OT in a game they led throughout at home, they covered as 11-point dogs at Houston, and they upset UCF 75-67 as 2.5-point home dogs last time out 

Now the Shockers get to face an overrated Cincinnati team, and they are catching too many points at home here today with this 5.5-point spread.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright as 17.5-point favorites at East Carolina, needed OT to win at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites, only beat UConn by 2 as 11.5-point home games, and only beat USF by 8 as 13.5-point home favorites. 

Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season with their two wins both coming by 5 points or less at Tulsa and at UNLV.  They were upset by ECU and also lost by 11 at Mississippi State.  Both meetings were decided by 4 points or less last year and by a combined 5 points.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Bet Wichita State Saturday. 

20* Maryland/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in with two of those on the road.  The only home loss came to Michigan State, which has now won 19 straight Big Ten games.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes, who have failed to cover six of their last seven coming in and have dropped out of the Top 25. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Maryland Terrapins, who have won six straight coming in and are now ranked No. 19 in the country.  But they’ve played six of their last eight games at home with their two road wins coming against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota.  Rutgers is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and Minnesota just lost to previously winless Illinois by 30-plus. 

Ohio State is favored for good reason here despite being the unranked team against the ranked team.  Oddsmakers are definitely tipping their hand.  It’s worth noting that Ohio State beat Maryland 91-69 at home last year as 5-point favorites.  Getting them as only 2.5-point favorites here is a huge value and one of my favorite bets in the Big Ten this season. 

The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Ohio State is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Buckeyes are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover four of their last five ATS.  Chris Holtmann is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as an underdog in all games he has coached.  Holtmann is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus game as the coach of the Buckeyes.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +16 

The Santa Clara Broncos have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their two losses came on the road to Gonzaga and BYU, and they easily covered in a 6-point loss at BYU as 13-point dogs. 

It’s not like their seven wins have been all against weak competition, either, during this stretch.  They beat USC by 10 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Washington State by 8 as 8-point dogs, and topped San Diego by 12 as 6-point dogs.  With how well they are playing, they certainly should not be catching 16 points to St. Mary’s. 

The Gaels have notoriously competed with Gonzaga for WCC supremacy over the years.  But this St. Mary’s team is way down, and it’s probably the worst team that they’ve had under Randy Bennett that I can remember.  The Gaels are just 11-7 this season.  They have home losses to Harvard and UC-Irvine, and road losses to Western Kentucky, San Francisco and Utah State.  Santa Clara is more than capable of hanging with them. 

St. Mary’s is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-7 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Roll with Santa Clara Thursday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +1.5 

The Missouri Tigers should not be home underdogs to the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight.  The Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the SEC as they are 9-5 this season, including 7-2 at home.  They were a dog in four of their five losses to Iowa State, K-State, Tennessee and South Carolina, and they were only a 2-point favorite in a 2-point loss to Temple. 

The Tigers have certainly been through the gauntlet as they also have impressive wins over Oregon State, UCF, Xavier and Illinois.  And now they’ll be highly motivated for their first conference win after losing to Tennessee and at South Carolina to open their SEC slate.  This is a game they can handle. 

Alabama has only played three true road games this season.  They lost at UCF and at LSU, while beating a bad Stephen F. Austin team.  UCF is a common opponent, and while Missouri beat UCF, Alabama lost to the Knights. 

Missouri is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Missouri is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games.  Roll with Missouri Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -2 

The Northern Iowa Panthers played a brutal non-conference schedule that got them ready for MVC play, which will be much easier for them.  And that has proven to be the case as they have played well in their first four MVC games. 

Indeed, the Panthers are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring their four opponents by a combined 13 points.  And now they host a team they can certainly handle in Indiana State, which has some ugly conference losses with a 35-point loss at Loyola and a 15-point home loss to Missouri State. 

Bradley is the only common opponent of these teams.  Northern Iowa won 65-47 at Bradley, while Indiana State only beat Bradley 65-60 at home.  Comparing common opponents is a great way to figure out how good teams really are, and we’ll get a lot more comparisons here in the coming weeks with conference play in full swing. 

Indiana State is 4-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Northern Iowa is 27-13 ATS in its lsat 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Sycamores are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 MVC games.  The Panthers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight MVC games.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +12 

I think this is a clearly letdown spot for Louisville.  They are coming off a shocking 21-point win at North Carolina as 11-point dogs.  And now they are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers as 12-point favorites over Boston College tonight because of that result.   

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Cardinals and ‘buy low’ on Boston College, which is riding a four-game losing streak into play.  Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points, and they covered in an 11-point loss at Virginia Tech in a game they led at halftime.  Their only blowout defeat came at the hands of Virginia, which is one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in college basketball.   

This is a veteran Boston College team with four players scoring 12 or more points per game.  Ky Bowman (20.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is an absolute stud, and complementing him are Winston Tabbs (14.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG), Nik Popovic (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Jordan Chapman (12.1 PPG).  They have the horses to hang with Louisville, which will not be 100% focused for this game off their win over UNC.   

Plays on road dogs or PK (Boston College) - off three straight conference losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after having lost four of their last five games over the past three seasons.  Jim Christian is 13-2 ATS after having lost four of his last five games as the coach of the Eagles.  Take Boston College Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3 

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  All the Rebels have done is go 13-2 SU & 14-1 ATS under first-year head coach Kermit Davis.  And now they are only 3-point home favorites over LSU tonight.  Sign me up. 

“Kermit Davis is one of the best coaches in our country,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “They are terrifically offensively efficient.  What he has been able to do was give them a little more discipline offensively. They are valuing possessions more.” 

The Rebels are shooting 49.9% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range and 76.1% on free throws this season.  They are averaging 79.8 points per game while recording an assist on 57% of their made baskets.  The top three scorers on the team all shoot between 40% and 42% from 3-point range. 

LSU has more turnovers (221) than assists (219) this season.  That’s going to make it difficult for the Tigers to win consistently on the road in SEC play.  I think they’re getting way too much credit for their overtime win at Arkansas last time out against a rebuilding Razorbacks team that lost seven of their top eight scores from a year ago. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Ole Miss is 5-1 SU In its last six home meetings with LSU, outscoring the Tigers by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Tigers are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Rebels are 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia +8.5

Tom Crean has the Georgia Bulldogs playing some great basketball here of late.  They have been greatly undervalued, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulldogs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.   

Two of their three losses during this stretch came against arguably the two best teams in the conference in Tennessee and Auburn, both on the road.  The other was a 2-point home loss as 3-point dogs to Arizona State.  The Bulldogs are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season. 

Kentucky is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season.  The Wildcats have been way overvalued in recent weeks as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Alabama as 5-point favorites, failed to cover in an 11-point home win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, and also didn’t cover in a 9-point home win over Vanderbilt as 13-point favorites.  Georgia just beat Vanderbilt by 19 in its last home game. 

The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Georgia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Georgia.  Take Georgia Tuesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh +6 

I fully expect Florida State to let Duke beat them twice tonight.  The Seminoles lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to the Blue Devils on Saturday, 78-80 at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat against the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight at Pittsburgh. 

This Florida State team has been overrated all season.  The Seminoles are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have narrow home wins over Purdue (by 1) and Miami (by 6), as well as a narrow win over LSU (by 3) on a neutral.  They lost to Villanova (by 6) on a neutral, and lost by 13 at Virginia.  They are 0-2 ATS in their two true road games this season. 

Conversely, Pitt has been underrated all season and remains underrated tonight.  The Panthers are 11-5 SU & 11-4 ATS this season.  They upset Louisville at home and only lost by 6 at NC State as 11-point dogs in their last two ACC games coming in.  Jeff Capel is doing a tremendous job in his first season on the job in returning the Panthers to relevance. 

Pitt is 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Florida State is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are actually losing by 5.5 points per game in this spot.  The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 ACC games.  The Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Pittsburgh Monday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back tough road losses at Michigan and at Maryland, two of the best teams in the Big Ten.  They should be able to get back in the win column at home tonight against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

The magic in Bloomington is back under Archie Miller.  The Hoosiers have gone 10-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by a whopping 21.9 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of Marquette, Northwestern, Louisville and Illinois at home this season. 

The secret is out on Nebraska.  They were covering machines last year, and they opened this season as covering machines again by going 9-2-1 ATS in their first 12 lined games.  But they have been getting too much respect from the books of late now, going 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They lost at Maryland by  2 as 2-point dogs, lost at Iowa by 9 as 2-point favorites, and failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 6-point home win over lowly Penn State.  The Huskers are 1-3 in true road games this season with their only win coming by 2 points over Clemson. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS off a road loss to a conference foe over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Hoosiers tonight.  Bet Indiana Monday. 

20* Northwestern/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +12.5 

I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight.  They will be out for revenge from their 60-62 home loss to Michigan as 5-point underdogs back on December 4th.  Now they are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

Michigan could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  It is one of two remaining unbeaten teams at 16-0 alongside Virginia.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very hard to live up to.  The Wolverines had failed to cover five straight prior to three straight covers, but those three have come by a combined 5.5 points, so they’ve been very fortunate. 

This series has been a nail biter in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, making for a perfect 8-0 system pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Five of those eight were decided by 4 points or less, and two went into overtime. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northwestern) - off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite against a team that’s off a road win against a conference opponent are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Sunday. 

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +10 

I think Syracuse is starting to become overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those four wins came against Arkansas State, St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame and Clemson.  All four of those teams are down this season from previous years.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Orange. 

I just don’t like the spot for Syracuse.  In the back of their minds, they know they have their biggest game of the season on deck at Duke on Monday night.  I can’t help but think they are going to be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

Georgia Tech has been impressive this season, especially of late.  They are 4-0 ATS in all road games this season, only losing by 13 at Tennessee as 15.5-point dogs, losing by 6 at Northwestern as 8-point dogs, winning at Arkansas outright by 4 as 9-point dogs, and only losing to St. John’s by 3 as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral.  They also only lost by 3 to Virginia Tech as 7-point home dogs last time out.  They’ve shown they can hang with some of the best teams in the country, and Syracuse certainly is just mediocre. 

Georgia Tech clearly causes Syracuse trouble as evidenced by their dominance against the spread in this series.  Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Syracuse with three outright upsets.  Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Yellow Jackets are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Syracuse is 0-6 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2.5 

The Davidson Wildcats are loaded once again this season.  They are off to an 11-4 start with their only losses all coming on the road to Purdue, Temple, Wake Forest and UNC.  But they have handled their business at home and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

The Wildcats are 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on the season.  VCU is 1-2 in true road games this season and will have its hands full here against the Wildcats.  I think Davidson is showing tremendous value as only 2.5-point home favorites today in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

VCU comes in getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for its four-game winning streak and identical 11-4 record.  But those four wins have come against Wichita State, Rider, Fordham and La Salle, not exactly a gauntlet.  This will be one for their stiffest tests of the season here Saturday. 

Davidson is 9-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 70-38 ATS in their last 108 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Davidson is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, winning by 21.3 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Take Davidson Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5 

Oklahoma comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three coming in.  Those losses were understandable as they both came on the road against arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 7).  They were in both of those games in the closing seconds with a chance to win. 

Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.5 points per game.  They have beaten Oklahoma State by 10, Creighton by 13, USC by 11 and Wichita State by 32 at home.  They also beat Wofford by 11 and North Texas by 16, two small conference schools that are actually very good.  So they’ve beaten all six opponents by double-digits at home this year. 

What really stands out to me about his game is that Oklahoma has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country, while TCU has only played the 130th-toughest.  So I think TCU is being overvalued due to its 12-2 record, but they’ve only played two true road games, winning a close one at SMU and losing by 9 at Kansas.  Oklahoma also gets an extra day to prepare after playing on Tuesday, while TCU played Kansas on Wednesday.  And after facing the Jayhawks and losing to them on the road, this easily could be a hangover spot for the Horned Frogs. 

Oklahoma is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with TCU, winning those seven games by 15 points per game on average.  All seven wins have come by at least 5 points.  The Sooners are 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.  Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Sooners are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after their 14-1 start to the season.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Red Raiders as they are now road favorites at Texas when they shouldn’t be Saturday. 

Texas Tech has opened 3-0 in Big 12 play, but all three games weren’t decided until the final seconds.  They won by 3 at West Virginia as 4.5-point favorites, won by 6 over Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites, and won by 7 at home over Oklahoma as 7-point favorites in a game they were never even close to covering until the final seconds.  And being overvalued has shown as the Red Raiders are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. 

Texas will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after an upset loss at Oklahoma State last time out.  That followed up two solid performances to open Big 12 play with a 20-point win at Kansas State and a 7-point home win over West Virginia.  Now the Longhorns are back home here where they simply don’t lose to Texas Tech. 

Indeed, Texas is 21-0 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech dating back to 1992, which is as far back as I could find.  So the streak could be even longer.  But we’ll use that streak for betting and package purposes today.  Simply put, the Longhorns should not be underdogs in this matchup.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -5.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers come into this game against Oklahoma State Saturday highly motivated for a victory.  They have opened 0-3 in Big 12 play, but could easily be 3-0 as their three losses have come by 3 to Texas Tech, by 7 at Texas and by 2 at Kansas State.  They finally get a team they can handle here in Oklahoma State. 

Indeed, the Cowboys are the worst team in the Big 12, period.  They are just 7-8 this season with very few quality wins other than their upset home victory over Texas last week.  I think they will be feeling fat and happy after winning their first Big 12 game in upset fashion.  The Mountaineers will clearly want this game more, and this is a scary team when they are motivated. 

Plays on home teams (WVU) - off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  West Virginia is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Purdue/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2.5 

I believe we are getting the Wisconsin Badgers at a very cheap price Friday night at home against the Purdue Boilermakers.  The Badgers are a veteran team that returned five starters this season, while the Boilermakers are in rebuilding mode with just one returning starters. 

That has come to fruition as the Badgers are 11-4 this season.  Their four losses have come to Marquette, Virginia, Minnesota and Western Kentucky with three of those on the road.  They’ve also beaten Penn State by 21 on the road, Iowa by 6 on the road, Oklahoma by 20 on the road, Xavier by 9 on the road, and NC State by 4 at home.  They have been through the gauntlet. 

Purdue is just 9-6 this season, and its inexperience is starting to show.  It is really showing on the road as the Boilermakers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They have also lost to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on a neutral. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wisconsin upset Purdue 57-53 at home as 11-point dogs last season.  The Badgers are 8-1 ATS off four straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Purdue is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Wisconsin Friday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +9.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini will relish the opportunity to face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at home tonight.  It will be a great atmosphere in Champaign tonight, and I fully expect one of the best efforts of the season tonight from the Fighting Illini. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolverines, who are one of the only remaining unbeaten teams in the country at 15-0 this season.  The betting public sees that 15-0 record and automatically bets Michigan, which forces oddsmakers to shade the line towards Michigan.  We saw 15-0 Houston lose last night, and don’t be surprised if 15-0 Michigan goes down tonight.  But we don’t even need Illinois to win, we just need them to stay within 9.5 points. 

I’ve been impressed with Illinois in its last two Big Ten games coming in.  They only lost by 8 as 11-point dogs at Indiana, and by 2 as 7.5-point dogs at Northwestern.  Well, Michigan only won by 2 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And the Wolverines have only played two true road games this season.  The odds are starting to catch up with the Wolverines as they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, with their two covers coming by just 2 points each. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 4-11 Illinois team, which is why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them.  But they have faced a brutal schedule with nine of their 15 games on the road.  They are 4-2 at home this season with their two losses coming by 8 and 2 points.  They have beaten Evansville by 39 as 16-point favorites and E. Tennessee State by 18 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also beat UNLV at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Illinois is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Michigan.  The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games off three or more consecutive home games.  Bet Illinois Thursday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7.5 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers, especially when they’re at home.  The Golden Hurricane have gone 11-4 this season with all four of their losses coming on the road to Houston, Utah, Nevada and Southern Illinois.  They were competitive in all but one of those games, too. 

Tulsa is a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  They have upset home wins over both Oklahoma State as 2-point dogs and Kansas State as 6.5-point dogs, two Power 5 teams from the Big 12.  And now they will give Cincinnati a run for its money tonight. 

The Bearcats aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in years’ past.  They have gone just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming 65-61 as 7-point favorites at UNLV, failing to cover.  They also lost 59-70 as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 71-73 as 17.5-point favorites in a shocking upset loss at East Carolina.  This team clearly has some problems on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tulsa only lost 55-57 as 9.5-point dogs and won 70-68 as 1.5-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Cincinnati.  And this is the best Tulsa team that head coach Frank Haith has had yet, while it’s one of the worst Cincinnati teams that had coach Mick Cronin has had in recent memory. 

Tulsa is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 21-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  Tulsa is 19-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years.  The Bearcats are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

15* TCU/Kansas ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -5 

It’s safe to say the Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off just their second loss of the season, and one of their worst losses in recent memory.  They lost 60-77 at Iowa State over the weekend and committed a season-high 24 turnovers to basically give the game away. 

“The thing that is good about getting beat rather than getting edged,” said Kansas head coach Bill Self, “is it’s very evident we have deficiencies and they need to be worked on.”  It’s also safe to say the Jayhawks will have had a couple of very productive practices Monday and Tuesday leading up to this game. 

TCU is overvalued right now due to its 12-1 start this season and the fact that the Horned Frogs have covered eight of their last nine spreads coming in.  To only be catching 5 points at Kansas is showing how much respect the Horned Frogs are getting right now.  And they have feasted on a very weak schedule with only one true road game thus far, and even their neutral court games have been against soft competition. 

Kansas has already been through the gauntlet and is battle-tested heading into the Big 12.  Sagarin has Kansas as playing the toughest schedule in the country thus far.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Iowa State. 

TCU has played the 151st-ranked schedule.  They have only faced one team in the Top 50, while Kansas has already faced six teams in the Top 25 of Sagarin’s ratings, going 5-1 against them.  KenPom has Kansas as playing the 3rd-toughest schedule, with TCU 186th.  So both show Kansas with a massive advantage in strength of schedule thus far. 

Kansas is 14-3 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons.  The Jayhawks are 41-24 ATS in their last 65 games following a road loss.  Self is 14-3 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Jayhawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss.  Take Kansas Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should come back highly motivated for a victory tonight after blowing a big lead against Michigan State at home over the weekend.  Head coach Chris Holtmann was not happy with their effort in the second half, and I expect his players to respond in a big way tonight. 

“We’re certainly not there yet,” Holtmann said afterward. “You let a team shoot 76 percent on your home floor and score 50 points in the second half, then you’ve got a long ways to go.  That’s a fact for us.” 

Now the Buckeyes get to take out their frustration on Big Ten bottom feeder Rutgers tonight.  The Scarlet Knights have lost five of their past seven games overall with their only two wins coming at home against Maine and Columbia.  They lost by 11 at home to Michigan State and by 14 at home to Maryland, and they only beat Columbia by 3 as 11-point favorites. 

Ohio State certainly did not take Rutgers lightly in their two meetings last season.  The Buckeyes won 68-46 as basically identical 6-point road favorites last year.  And they came back and won 79-52 as 14.5-point home favorites in their second meeting.  Given those two results, and the fact that Ohio State is every bit as good as it was a year ago, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this generous 5.5-point spread tonight. 

Rutgers is 3-11 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Hortmann is 13-3 ATS in road games in all games he has coached at Ohio State.  Holtmann is 12-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog at Ohio State.  The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday. 

20* UNC/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on NC State -1 

What more does NC State have to do to start getting some respect from the books? Until they do, I’m going to continue to ride them as they’ve treated me very well this season.  The Wolfpack returned three starters from last year, and underrated head coach Kevin Keatts brought in some great transfers that are really paying dividends this season. 

Indeed, the Wolfpack are 13-1 SU this season.  Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point dogs.  And you know this team is underrated when you consider they have gone 11-3 ATS this season.  They are elite offensively, scoring 89.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting, including 40.9% from 3-point range.  And they are very good defensively as well, holding opponents to 66.0 points and 42.4% shooting.  They are outscoring the opposition by 23.2 points per game on average this year, including 29.8 points per game at home where they are 10-0. 

North Carolina is 3-2 in true road games this season.  They beat Wofford Elon and Pitt, but lost to the two best teams they’ve faced on the road in Michigan (67-84) and Kentucky (72-80).  I strongly believe that NC State is one of the best teams in the country and as good as both Michigan and Kentucky, or close to them.  That will show on the court tonight. 

NC State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  It's worth noting the Wolfpack get four days to prepare for UNC, while the Tar Heels only get two days to prepare after playing on Saturday.  That's a nice advantage for the home team here that will pay off.  Take NC State Tuesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -1 

The Southern Illinois Salukis are one of the best teams in the MVC.  They returned all five starters this season.  The problem is, they lost one of their key starters to a suspension after seven games.  Armon Fletcher (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has missed the last eight games because of the suspension, but he makes his return tonight. 

The loss of Fletcher was huge as he shoots 58% from the floor and 47.8% from 3-point range.  They went 5-2 with him in the first seven games with one of their only losses coming 59-71 at Kentucky as 18.5-point dogs.  They have gone just 4-4 without him.  They’ve managed to open 2-0 in MVC play without him with wins against Missouri State and Northern Iowa.  And they’ll be a dangerous team moving forward with him now. 

Conversely, Drake just lost its best player to a season-ending injury in the MVC opener against Evansville.  The Bulldogs were upset by Evansville 77-82 on the road, and they also lost 74-85 to Loyola-Chicago at home in their first full game without him.  PG Nick Norton (14.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, 40% 3-pointers) is irreplaceable.  He has a triple-double this season and had 17 assists in one game.  He was the leader of this team, and he’ll be missed greatly moving forward. 

Southern Illinois has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS with its only straight up losses coming to Kentucky by 12 as 18.5-point dogs and Buffalo by 8 as 13-point dogs, which are two of the better teams in the country.  I think being a veteran team with five returning starters is the reason the Salukis have had so much success on the road this year.  They improve to 7-0 ATS in road games with a win and cover tonight.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +8 

The No. 3 ranked Tennessee Vols are one of the best teams in the country, no question.  But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them, especially off their 96-50 home win over Georgia on Saturday.  They will have had just two days to get ready for Missouri now. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has been off since December 29th, getting plenty of time to game plan for Tennessee.  That’s a huge advantage for them.  The Tigers should be highly motivated for a victory in their SEC opener tonight at home. 

This is a Missouri team that has been grossly underrated of late, and has won me a couple bets in the process.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  I won with them as 2-point home dogs in their 71-56 win over Xavier.  I also won with them as a pick ‘em in their 79-63 win over Illinois on a neutral during this stretch.  Now they put their name on the map here by giving Tennessee a run for its money. 

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Tennessee is 1-8 ATS after two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 26-44 ATS in their last 70 road games off four consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Missouri Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -1.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers should be bigger favorites at home over the Maryland Terrapins tonight.  This is one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten as the Gophers returned five starters from last year and a ton of experience. 

It has led to a 12-2 start for the Gophers, whose two losses both came on the road at Ohio State and Boston College.  They have also beaten both Wisconsin and Washington on the road, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma State at home.  And they should be able to handle Maryland at home tonight. 

The Terrapins are also a quality team at 12-3 this season, but they’ve done most of their damage at home.  They have only played three true road games this season, losing at Purdue and winning at Rutgers and Navy. This will be their stiffest road test yet as I believe Minnesota is one of the best teams in the Big Ten this year, but they’re not being treated like it by oddsmakers. 

Minnesota is 8-0 SU at home this season and basically just needs to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread.  Mark Turgeon is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of Maryland.  The Terrapins are getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday. 

20* Miami/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Louisville -6 

The Louisville Cardinals have faced a brutal schedule this season and have managed a 9-4 record in Chris Mack’s first year on the job.  Their four losses have come to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana and Kentucky with three of those on the road.  They have also beaten Michigan State, so it’s safe to say they are battle-tested heading into ACC play. 

Now the Cardinals will be highly motivated for a win in their ACC opener Sunday against one of the worst teams in the ACC in Miami.  And the Cardinals have been great at home this season, going 8-1 while outscoring their opponents by 16.3 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Kentucky. 

Miami just isn’t that good this season, as evidenced by their 8-5 record and 4-9 ATS mark.  The Hurricanes have losses to Yale, Rutgers and Pennsylvania.  They have only played one true road game this season, and that was their 75-89 loss at Pennsylvania as 5.5-point favorites.  They also have some concerning wins as they beat Bethune-Cookman by 8 as 27-point home favorites, Houston Baptist by 7 as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell by 11 as 19-point home favorites. 

Miami is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this year.  Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents.  The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Louisville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet Louisville Sunday.