15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -18

North Carolina should be a much bigger favorite against Northern Iowa in this contest in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels will be motivated following a tough 100-103 loss to Kentucky last time out, and I look for them to respond with a blowout home victory.

Following their only other loss of the season on the road to Indiana, UNC bounced back with a 45-point win.  And I think the Tar Heels are undervalued right now because they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  But they were playing without their best player in Joel Berry for most of those games, and he just returned against Kentucky.

Northern Iowa is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes a 22-point loss to Xavier and a 23-point loss to Iowa.  Those two results alone show that UNC should win by 20-plus.  The Panthers also lost at home to George Mason and on the road to Wyoming during this stretch.  Their only two wins came at home against South Dakota State and North Dakota.

UNC is an explosive offensive team that averages 89.0 points per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home and get Northern Iowa out of its comfort zone.  The Panthers like to slow it down to make up for their offensive liabilities.  They only average 66.3 points on 40.4% shooting this season, including 62.5 points and 37.9% shooting on the road.

Northern Iowa is 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams who average 77 or more points per game over the past two seasons.  Northern Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take North Carolina Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland State +8

I really like this Portland State Pilots team.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season and have a ton of depth.  They have six players scoring at least 10.3 points per game and a 7th that averages 8.9 points.  That helped them overcome the loss of leading scorer Braxton Tucker (16.8 ppg) in their last four games.

They have gone 3-1 without Tucker with their only loss coming by a final of 79-71 at CS-Bakersfield.  They even went on the road and beat San Francisco 82-78 as 9.5-point dogs last time out.  Not to mention, they beat Pepperdine 91-85 as 11.5-point road dogs in the game Tucker was injured.  So I'm not concerned whether or not he plays in this game, though he is questionable and could return, which would only be an added bonus.

The biggest reason to back Portland State tonight is the rest advantage, and the fact that it will be hyped to play rival Portland.  The Vikings have had three days off since beating San Francisco on Friday.  Portland will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here after beating South Dakota on Friday and Oregon State on Sunday.

The win over Oregon State has to feel good beating a Power 5 program, but the Beavers are way down this year and missing their best player.  I think the Pilots could suffer a letdown here following that win.  Plus, they were terrible in their previous two games, only beating South Dakota 85-82 and lowly UTRGV 90-89.  The Pilots should not be laying 8 points based on those results, especially playing their 3rd game in 5 days.

Portland is 12-30 ATS in its last 42 vs. teams who allow 77 or more points per game.  Portland State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a combined score of 155 points or more in three straight games.  The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Pilots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Portland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  Take Portland State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +22.5

The Samford Bulldogs are a quality team capable of giving Florida State a run for its money today.  Samford is 7-3 this season, which includes a solid 4-2 record in true road games.  The Bulldogs' only two road losses this season came at New Mexico State by 10 and at Cincinnati by 15 as 19-point dogs.

Florida State comes in overvalued due to its 11-1 record this season.  The Seminoles are starting to lay the kinds of big numbers that are going to be tough for them to cover moving forward.  They just beat a bad Manhattan team by 16 as 24.5-point favorites on Saturday.

Now the Seminoles have had only one day to prepare for Samford after playing on Saturday.  The Bulldogs have had two days off in between games after a nice 82-79 win at South Alabama as 4-point dogs on Friday.  And I think the Seminoles could be looking ahead here as their next game will be their ACC opener against Wake Forest.

Samford is 10-1 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the past two seasons.  Florida State is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Samford is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Take Samford Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northeastern +12.5

The Michigan State Spartans are in a world of hurt right now.  They are just 7-4 on the season and clearly one of the worst teams that Tom Izzo has had in a long time.  The news went from bad to worse when they lost their best player Miles Bridges (16.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) to an ankle injury.

The Spartans have played their last three games without Bridgers, and it's been ugly.  All three games came at home against Oral Roberts (80-76) as 21.5-point favorites, Youngstown State (77-57) as 18.5-point favorites and Tennessee Tech (71-63) as 19-point favorites.

Northeastern is better than all three of those teams.  And the Huskies just have a knack for playing in close games.  In fact, all 10 of their games this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.  They showed what they were capable of by stunning UConn 64-61 as 13-point road dogs.

The Huskies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Northeastern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  This is way too big of a number for the Spartans to be laying in their current state.  Roll with Northeastern Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami Ohio +13.5

UCF is missing leading scorer and assist man B.J. Taylor (16.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) due to a thumb injury.  Taylor has missed the past three games, and the results have been terrible for the Knights without their best player.

After beating lowly MD-East Shore 76-58 in their first game without him, the Knights lost at home 49-58 to Pennsylvania as 10-point favorites.  Then they lost on the road at George Washington 59-74 on Thursday as 2-point underdogs.  Now they've had just two days to get ready for Miami Ohio.

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are nothing special at just 5-5 this season, but they are good enough to stay within 13.5 points of a UCF team missing their best player in Taylor.  And the Redhawks have had ample time to prepare for the Knights.  They haven't played since a 71-68 win over IUPUI on December 10th, getting a full seven days off to get ready for this game.

Miami Ohio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  The Redhawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Take Miami Ohio Sunday.

15* Butler/Indiana In-State Rivalry Play on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers should make easy work of the Butler Bulldogs in the Crossroads Classic at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday.  I like this Butler team and backed them in their most recent game, a 10-point home win over Cincinnati.  But I think it's time to fade them here as they simply do not have the talent to match Indiana.

The Hoosiers are off to an 8-1 start this season and blitzing the competition in the process, scoring 87.6 points per game and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They got their wake-up call in a bad loss at IUPU-Fort Wayne, but have been rolling since.  They beat North Carolina by 9 at home.  Their other four games since have resulted in wins by 23 points or more.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - an explosive offensive team (scoring at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Hoosiers are 22-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Indaina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* Ohio State/UCLA CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UCLA -8.5

The UCLA Bruins are the best team in college basketball in my opinion.  I've backed them a handful of times with success already this season, and they continue to be undervalued by oddsmakers here as only 8.5-point favorites in this showdown with Ohio State in the CBS Sorts Classic in Las Vegas.

The Bruins are not only 11-0 straight up, but they are 9-2 ATS having covered in eight straight games coming in.  It's not like they are beating up on a soft schedule, either.  They won 97-92 as 10.5-point road dogs at Kentucky in a game that really showed they are the best team in the land.  They have also won and covered against the likes of Nebraska, Texas A&M and Michigan.  They are putting up 97.9 points per game and outscoring opponents by 23.3 points per game on the season.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are off to a nice 8-2 start, but they don't have one win of significance.  They are just 3-5 ATS on the season and have had some really concerning efforts.  They lost at home to Florida Atlantic 77-79 as 20-point favorites less than two weeks ago.  They only beat Farleigh Dickinson by 8 at home in a game that had no line as they were expected to blow them out.  They also only beat NC Central 69-63 as 24-point home favorites.  Based on those results, they aren't going to be able to stay within single-digits of a team the caliber of UCLA.

The Buckeyes are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.  The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  UCLA is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Bruins are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic +21

It's mind-boggling that Florida Atlantic is catching 21 points tonight against Miami.  This is a much-improved team from last year that returned four starters.  They have gone 3-5 against a very difficult schedule with all five losses coming by 9 points or less, including three by 4 points or fewer.

What really stood out to me was a couple of their wins.  Florida Atlantic beat South Florida 78-62 as 4.5-point home favorites.  But that wasn't their most impressive victory.  They went on the road and beat Ohio State 79-77 as 20-point dogs last time out.  Normally this would be a letdown spot, but it's not in this case because they've had 9 days off in between games after beating the Buckeyes on December 6th.

Miami is clearly down a couple notches from last year with all that it lost in the offseason.  That showed in losses to Iowa State (by 17) and Florida (by 9).  It has also shown up with their 2-5 ATS record in lined games this season.  They only beat Pennsylvania by 12 as 20-point favorites, Rutgers by 12 as 14.5-point favorites and Wofford by 17 as 19-point favorites.  I don't expect them to cover this massive number, either.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a home win by 30 points or more.  Florida Atlantic is 9-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  The Owls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -1.5

Middle Tennessee went 25-10 last season and shocked No. 2 Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.  The Blue Raiders brought back three starters from that team, including their top two scorers in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw.

The Blue Raiders have picked up right where they left off last year, opening 9-1 this season.  They have beaten Ole Miss 77-62 as 6-point road dogs and Vanderbilt 71-48 as 2-point home favorites.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Belmont is just 4-3 this season with its four wins coming against Western Kentucky, Lipscomb (by 2 twice) and Pepperdine.  The Bruins have a common opponent with Middle Tennessee in Vanderbilt.  Well, the Bruins lost to Vanderbilt 66-80 as 5-point dogs.  That result really shows the difference between these two teams after the Blue Raiders beat the Commodores by 23.

Middle Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 or less over the last two seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 1 to 6.5 points.  The Bruins are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a dog of 1 to 6.5 points.  Belmont is 0-6 ATS in its last six Wednesday games.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

15* Temple/Villanova FS1 No-Brainer on Temple +16.5

Villanova is overvalued right now due to winning the national championship last season and opening this season 10-0.  The Wildcats are simply laying too many points in this rivalry game with Temple, and we'll take advantage.

I know the Wildcats have dominated this series with the Owls, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, but that has only added to the value.  This isn't the same dominant Villanova team we saw last year because they lack an inside presence and their depth isn't nearly as strong as it was a year ago.

Temple has really impressed me during its 7-3 start this season.  The three losses came by a combined 11 points, and the Owls have beaten the likes of Florida State as 10-point dogs and West Virginia as 12.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the better teams in the country, and those results show that the Owls can play with Villanova.

This is also a potential letdown spot for Villanova after beating Notre Dame 74-66 on Saturday on a neutral court.  The Wildcats erased an early double-digit deficit and actually wound up covering as 5-point favorites, which also has them overvalued here.

Temple is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Villanova is 0-7 ATS in home games off two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   These last four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -24

I think the loss to UCLA last week was exactly what the Kentucky Wildcats needed to re-focus.  And that loss to UCLA doesn't look so bad considering the Bruins are still undefeated and just hung over 100 points on Michigan Saturday.  The Bruins may be the best team in the country.

Kentucky is right up there as a Top 5 team in the country in my opinion.  The Wildcats came back with a 24-point win over a very good Valparaiso team following that loss to UCLA.  And all eight of Kentucky's wins have come by 21 points or more this season, including  wins over Michigan State (by 21) and Arizona State (by 46).

Hofstra is a team of similar talent to a lot of these teams that Kentucky has been blowing out.  The Pride are 6-4 on the season and they haven't played anyone near the caliber of Kentucky.  They have lost to the likes of Sacred Heart, Manhattan, Vermont and Saint Bonaventure this season.

Their only wins have come against Coppin State (by 2), Bradley (by 2), South Dakota, Medaille, Columbia (by 2) and Florida Atlantic.  This is a Hofstra team that is still getting too much respect from the books after going 24-10 last year.  But they lost three starters from that team in Juan'ya Green (17.8 ppg), Ameen Tanksley (15.9 ppg) and Denton Koon (11.4 ppg) who combined to average over 45 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost.

The Pride are going to be in trouble here because they are a terrible defensive team despite playing such an easy schedule.  They are allowing 77.9 points per game, 45.8% shooting and 41.1% shooting from 3-point range against teams that only average 71 points per game, 41.7% shooting and 33.7% from 3-point range.  Kentucky will get to 100 in this game, which will be more than enough to cover this 24-point spread.

Hofstra is 0-8 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Kentucky Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +11

The Yale Bulldogs have no business laying double-digits to the Delaware Blue Hens Sunday.  I've been looking to fade these Bulldogs for a while now, and now we've finally got an opportunity to because their last four games haven't even had lines set for them.

The reason I've been looking to fade Yale is because they lost their best player in Makai Mason to a season-ending foot injury.  Maison was their only returning starter from last season.  He averaged 16.0 points last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Without him, they aren't one of the top Ivy League teams anymore.

That has clearly shown this season as the Bulldogs are just 4-4 on the year.  They lost on the road to Virginia by 24, to Pitt by 5, to Vermont by 2 and even to Bryant by 9.  They weren't very impressive in home wins over Lehigh (by 8) and Albany (by 4), two teams that aren't as good as Delaware.  Yale is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 23-7 last year and 13-1 in the Ivy League.  But without Mason, they now have zero returning starters from that squad.

Delaware has been impressive en route to a 6-3 start this season.  The Blue Hens beat Bradley by 14 on the road as 8-point dogs and Miami Ohio by 2 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 at LaSalle as 15.5-point dogs.  That's the same LaSalle team that took Villanova down to the wire the other day.

Delaware also has a scheduling advantage here.  It last played on December 2nd, getting over a week to prepare for Yale.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs last played on December 8th, getting only two days to prepare for Delaware.

Yale is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Delaware is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Blue Hens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Roll with Delaware Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -3

The Butler Bulldogs will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  I went against them in that loss and took Indiana State +10.5.  The Bulldogs lost 71-72 after committing a foul in the closing seconds.  I took Indiana State because they are underrated, and also because I thought Butler would be looking ahead to this game against Cincinnati.

But now the Bulldogs return home where they are 5-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indiana is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this is a very small number for the Bulldogs to be laying in any home game.  They are undervalued because of that loss to Indiana State.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to its No. 22 ranking and 7-1 record on the season.  The Bearcats are also overvalued due to a recent road win over ranked Iowa State, but its clear that the Cyclones aren't all that good this season because they just lost by double-digits to a down Iowa team on Thursday.  The Bearcats are getting too much credit for that win.

Butler went on the road and beat Cincinnati 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs last year.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bearcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big East foes.  Butler is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bulldogs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Take Butler Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Marquette CBB Saturday No-Brainer on Marquette +4.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Steve Wojciechowski is in his third season and returned four starters from last year.  The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.

They are off to that start despite playing a pretty difficult schedule.  The two losses have come to Pitt and Michigan, but they have beaten both Vanderbilt (by 24) and Georgia (by 10) on the road as well.  They are clearly battle-tested right now.

Wisconsin has also played a difficult schedule.  But while the Badgers have taken care of business at home, they have not fared well on the road.  They lost their only true road game this season to Creighton (by 12) as 1.5-point favorites.  They also lost to North Carolina by 15 on a neutral court.

Marquette went into Wisconsin and won 57-55 as 7-point dogs last year.  But the Golden Eagles are vastly improved this season with all of the talent and experience they have back, and I don't think they should be underdogs at home this time around.  Marquette is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Wisconsin.

Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -4.5

There is a huge talent gap between Iowa State and Iowa this year.  That's why I fully expect the Cyclones to win their fourth straight meeting with the Hawkeyes, which would be a record for them in this series.  There is certainly no love lost here, and they won't feel badly at all at beating up on a down Hawkeyes squad.

Here's a quote from Iowa State's senior leader Monte Morris. "We want to go in there and make a statement.  Set the tone and send a message both to Iowa and the country.  We're trying to go out there and beat them badly."

The Cyclones boast four senior starters this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their two losses coming to Cincinnati and Gonzaga by a combined 3 points.  I think the loss to Cincinnati a week ago really only helped this team get motivated and focused moving forward.

Following the Cincinnati loss, the Cyclones dominated Nebraska-Omaha 91-47 at home as 18.5-point favorites.  That's important because Iowa lost to Nebraska-Omaha just two nights earlier 89-98 as 11-point home favorites.  That gives these teams a common opponent.

This is a young, inexperienced Hawkeyes team that is still trying to find their way.  They are just 4-5 this season with an 8-point loss to Seton Hall, a 33-point loss to Virginia, and 8-point loss to Memphis, a 14-point loss to Notre Dame and that aforementioned 9-point loss to Nebraska-Omaha.  Their four wins have come against Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UTRGV and Stetson.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games coming in over the past three years.  Iowa State is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -4

The Creighton Bluejays remain an undervalued commodity despite their 8-0 record this season.  This is legitimately one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 5-2 ATS this season with their two non-covers coming by a combined 1.5 points.

Creighton has proved it is for real with some quality wins over some very good teams.  The Bluejays beat Wisconsin by 12 as 1.5-point dogs, Washington State by 26 as 14.5-point favorites and NC State by 18 as 5.5-point favorites.

Nebraska has lost three of its last four games coming in and doesn't boast a good win yet.  The Huskers lost to UCLA by 11, Virginia Tech by 13 and Clemson by 2 in their three toughest games thus far.  Creighton is the second-best team they will have faced behind UCLA, and they are only catching four points.

Creighton head coach Doug McDermott puts a ton of emphasis on beating their in-state rival each year.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by double-digits.  In fact, the Blue Jays are a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10.5

The Indiana State Sycamores are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  They have been an undervalued commodity in the early going, posting a 6-1 ATS mark through their first seven games.  They aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers here, either.

The Sycamores are very close to being 8-0 despite playing a tough schedule.  Their four losses have all come by 3 points or less, including a 78-80 road loss to Northern Illinois as 6-point dogs, a 71-73 loss to ranked Iowa State as 13.5-point dogs on a neutral, and a 62-65 loss to Stanford as 6-point dogs on a neutral.

Butler comes in way overvalued due to its perfect 8-0 start to the season.  But this will be just the Bulldogs' second true road games, and it's going to be a hostile atmosphere in support of the Sycamores.  They lost by 14 as 17-point road dogs to Butler last season, and now should stay within single-digits at home this time around, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Bulldogs are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Indiana State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

This is a discount on one of the best teams in college basketball Tuesday night.  The Duke Blue Devils will rarely be this small of favorites all season, and we'll take advantage here I expect them to crush the Florida Gators at Madison Square Garden.

Luke Kennard leads the Blue Devils (8-1) with 19.4 points per game, followed by Grayson Allen (17.1), Frank Jackson (15.4) and Amile Jefferson (14.7). Jefferson is also the leading rebounder with 9.8 per game.  They are loaded everywhere, and now they're finally starting to get healthy.

Duke's two prized freshmen recruits will get their first big test tonight.  Center Marques Bolden and forward Jayson Tatum, both five-star recruits, were cleared to play Friday in the 94-55 win over Maine.  That duo missed the first eight games of the season.  Instead of a six-man rotation, the Blue Devils now have eight guys they are comfortable putting on the floor.  It will make a huge difference going forward.

Florida is 2-10 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or fewer over the past three seasons.  Duke is 14-5 ATS vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12 or more points per game over the past three seasons.  Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 71-27 (72.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Duke Tuesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +20

This is a very bad spot for the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They are coming off a huge road win over nationally ranked Iowa State on Thursday, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  They will suffer a letdown here off that big win and won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this 20-point spread.

Not to mention, this is a sandwich game for the Bearcats as they have another huge game on deck.  They will be traveling to face another nationally ranked Butler team the next time they hit the floor.  They certainly could find themselves looking ahead to that showdown as well.

Bowling Green lost its first four games this season all by 16 points or fewer, including three by 8 points or less.  But the Falcons have responded with three straight victories, including two blowout wins by 32 and 26 points.  Now they've had four days off in between games to get ready for Cincinnati, while the Bearcats have only had two days off.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 10-1 ATS versus poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or fewer of their attempts over the last three seasons. The Bearcats play a slow, grind-it-out style which favors big underdogs like the Falcons because there are fewer possessions.  Take Bowling Green Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Rhode Island -2.5

The Rhode Island Rams have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  They are legitimately the better team in this rivalry game for the first time in years, and they should win.

The Rams will be motivated to end a six-game losing streak to Providence.  The last three meetings were decided by a combined 11 points, including a 74-72 home loss last year, so they have been right there with a chance to win.  2016 is when they get over the top.

Providence is in rebuilding mode this year after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.  Rhode Island is a legit Top 25 team this year with four starters back from last season plus the return of EC Matthews, their best player.

Providence is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half of its previous game.  Rhode Island's only two losses came on the road to both Duke (by 10) and Valpo (by 3).  The Rams won't be losing their third game here.  Take Rhode Island Saturday.

15* WVU/Virginia ESPNU Saturday No-Brainer on West Virginia +10

West Virginia should not be a double-digit underdog here against Virginia.  The Mountaineers have been rolling with the exception of a 4-point upset loss to Temple a few games back, and that result has them undervalued right now.

Virginia continues to be overvalued due to its 7-0 start.  It failed to cover against a down Providence team in a 63-62 win as 12-point favorites on a neutral court.  Then last time out the Cavaliers were lucky to beat Ohio State 63-61 as 12-point home favorites.

WVU has had four full days to prepare for Virginia, while the Cavaliers have only had two days to prepare for the Mountaineers after playing Ohio State on Wednesday.  That's a huge disadvantage for the Cavaliers because the Mountaineers' aggressive, pressing style is tough to prepare for.

Virginia is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 3 points or less.  West Virginia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or less.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -5.5

The Ball State Cardinals are going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They brought back four starters from last season and almost all of their best players.  They are 4-3 this season with their only losses coming to three good teams in Indiana State, Alabama and Valpo with two of those on the road.

IUPUI is clearly a mess this season off to a 2-5 start while going 0-5 in road games, getting outscored by 12.8 points per game away from home.  They have lost to Illinois State by 14, Eastern Kentucky by 10, Marqutte by 25 and Michigan by 12.  Perhaps their most concerning loss was a 58-61 setback at SIU-Edwardsville as 7-point favorites.

Plays on a favorite (BALL ST) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Roll with Ball State Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Iowa State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -7

The Iowa State Cyclones have been very impressive in the early going and are certainly deserving of their Top 25 ranking.  The Cyclones are off to a 5-1 start this season that includes a 17-point win over Miami on a neutral court.  Their only loss came 71-73 to Gonzaga as 4.5-point dogs in a game they had a chance to win at the buzzer.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are also 5-1 this season, but they have feasted on a very easy schedule.  They played four home games against overmatched competition, and they split their two neutral court games, beating Penn State but losing to Rhode Island.  This will be their first true road game of the season.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Cyclones are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 42.3 points per game.  Iowa State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a straight up win.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the past three seasons.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Riverside +24.5

I have been a big UCLA backer this season.  I backed them in all three Wooden Classic games and won all three as they beat Portland 99-77 as 15.5-point favorites, Nebraska 82-71 as 9.5-point favorites and Texas A&M 74-67 as 6-point favorites.  They were fortunate to narrowly cover those last two games.

Now it's time to fade the Bruins for a couple of reasons.  First, they are overvalued after a 4-game ATS winning streak.  Second, they are in for a letdown off their Wooden Classic Championship.  And third, they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Kentucky, so they'll be looking ahead to that game against the No. 1-ranked Wildcats.

UC-Riverside hasn't lost by more than 18 points this season.  It won its two home games by 46 and 36 points, but lost its three road games by 16 to Portland, 12 to UNLV and 18 to Utah.  That's a pretty tough road schedule and one that will have them battle-tested heading into this showdown with UCLA.

Freshman guard Dikymbe Martin has posted 41 points, 10 assists and 7 steals in his last two games.  He made his first career start against Utah and finished with 15 points, 5 assists, 4 boards and 3 steals.  He should continue to get increased minutes going forward.  Malik Thames missed the Utah game due to an illness in the family, but he's expected to return tonight.  Thames averages 12.3 points and 4.7 rebounds, while Chance Murray is averaging 12 points.  Martin leads them in scoring at 12.5 points per game.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UC-RIVERSIDE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1997.  UCLA is 1-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game over the last two seasons.  UCLA is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 following seven or more consecutive wins.  Take UC-Riverside Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -4.5

This is one of the rare times where two teams play each other twice this early in the season in non-conference action.  Northern Illinois beat Indiana State 80-78 at home in the season opener.  Now it's time for the Sycamores to get revenge at home this time around as only 4.5-point favorites.

I really like what I've seen from this Indiana State team.  It is much better than its 2-4 record as all four losses have come by 3 points or less.  That includes a 71-73 loss to Top 25 Iowa State as 13.5-point dogs and a 62-65 loss to a very good Stanford team as 6-point dogs.  Those two efforts alone show what the Sycamores are capable of moving forward.

Northern Illinois has some really bad losses during its 4-3 start and has played a much softer schedule.  The four wins have come against Indiana State, Roosevelt, Idaho and Illinois-Chicago, while the three losses have come against CS-Northridge, Cal Poly and Elon.  This will be just the Huskies second true road game this season, while it will be only the second home game for Indiana State.  The first resulted in a 41-point beat down of Missouri-St. Louis.

Indiana State is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  The Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Commonwealth -5

The VCU Rams are coming off a 25-11 season last year in the first season under Will Wade, showing that they don't miss Shaka Smart at all.  They went 14-4 in AAC play and lost an 81-85 nail-biter to Oklahoma with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.

The Rams returned four starters from that team, including JeQuan Lewis (11.3 ppg, 5.1 apg) and Mo Allie-Cox (10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  Fellow starters Doug Brooks and Jordan Burgess returned, as did key bench player Justin Tillman (7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who shot 71.7 percent over his final 21 games last year and had 21 rebounds against Dayton in the A-10 Tournament.

VCU is off to a 5-1 start this season with wins over St. John's and LSU on neutral courts.  The only loss came to Baylor 63-71, and Baylor is now currently the No. 9 ranked team in the country.  Baylor has beaten Louisville, Michigan State and Oregon already, so that's not a bad loss at all.

Princeton is off to a 2-2 start this season with its only wins coming against Lafayette and Rowan.  Princeton lost 73-82 at BYU and 67-76 at Lehigh.  This Tigers team is getting a lot of hype this season because they are expected to compete for an Ivy League title while bringing back all five starters from last year.  But this is the toughest game that they will have played yet, and they already lost to both BYU and Lehigh by 9 on the road.

The Rams are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  VCU is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Princeton is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Bet VCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team.  They are PG Bryant McIntosh (13.8 ppg, 6.7 apg last year), Aaron Falzon (8.4 ppg, 63 3-pointers) and Sanjay Lumpkin (3.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They have the potential to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance this year.

The Wildcats are off to a 4-2 start against a brutal schedule.  Their two losses both came on the road at Butler (68-70) as 7.5-point dogs and against Notre Dame (66-70) as 4.5-point dogs, losing those two contests by a combined six points and proving that they can play with good teams.  They also did that in a 77-58 blowout of Texas as 3-point dogs.  Those three results right there tell you a lot about what the Wildcats are capable of.

I think Wake Forest is overvalued due to its 5-1 start.  This is a team that went 11-20 last year and lost two of its best players in Devin Thomas and Codi Miller-McIntyre.  The five wins have come against Radford, Bucknell, UTEP, College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.  The loss was against Villanova 77-96 as 12-point dogs as they were clearly outclassed.

Wake Forest is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game over the past two seasons.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three years.  The Demon Deacons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Northwestern Monday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -3.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start while averaging 100.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.7 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (16.7 ppg, 4.2 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.0 ppg, 9.0 apg, 5.3 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (13.0 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) are also returning starters.

While UCLA has won all six of its games by double-digits, Texas A&M has already lost at home to USC this season and was very fortunate to beat Virginia Tech 68-65 on Saturday after erasing a 17-point deficit.  The Aggies lost four starters from last year in Danuel House (15.6 ppg), Jalen Jones (15.3 ppg), Alex Caruso (8.1 ppg, 5.0 apg) and Anthony Collins.

They have some young talent as well in Tyler Davis and DJ Hogg, but they're definitely down compared to last year.  Texas A&M is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  They'll be out-classed here by the loaded Bruins who are playing in their home state with tremendous fan support for this neutral site affair.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are way undervalued right now after their 41-74 loss to Virginia yesterday.  Virginia is one of the best teams in the country and the Hawkeyes weren't ready for their pack-line defense as they shot just 31.2%.  But now they're up against a team they can handle in Memphis.

Memphis is overvalued after starting the season 4-0 with wins over UTRGV, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Savannah State and McNeese State.  But it was beaten 51-60 yesterday against a Providence team that is way down this season after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.

And UTRGV and Savannah State are two common opponents who both Memphis and Iowa played at home.  Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84 and UTRGV 95-67, outscoring them by an average of 30 points per game.  Memphis beat UTRGV 94-75 and Savannah State 99-86, only outscoring them by 16 points per game on average.  It's clear that the Hawkeyes are the better team here.  Roll with Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa +9.5

This is a rare occasion in college basketball where two teams will be playing back-to-back.  Xavier and Northern Iowa squared off just six days ago in the Tire Pros Invitational in Orlando.  The Musketeers won 67-59 after outscoring the Panthers by eight points in the second half and pulling away late.

The Musketeers were only 5.5-point favorites in that game and barely covered, and now they're 9.5-point favorites in the rematch because they are at home.  But this won't be the normal home-court advantage that Xavier usually has as kids are home for Thanksgiving Break.  Plus, I love taking the team that lost the first game in the rematch in situations like this one because they want it more.

Northern Iowa is one of the country's top mid-major programs annually and isn't used to losing.  The Panthers have a 4-2 record since the start of the 2014-15 season against Top 25 teams, and they were 3-0 last season against ranked opponents.  To get to the championship game last week, Northern Iowa throttled Arizona State 82-63 as 3.5-point dogs before upsetting Oklahoma 73-67 as 6-point dogs.

"We've been playing big schools for a long time now and we've beaten them," senior guard Jeremy Morgan told reporters this week. "It's not easy, but we know we can do it."

"It's a good opportunity for us to be able to go out and play a good team like that twice in a row just to prove we can play with anybody," UNI junior forward Klint Carlson said.

Xavier is 5-0 this season, but four of those wins came by 8 points or fewer.  It barely beat Lehigh 84-81 in its home opener, needed overtime to beat a terrible Missouri team 83-82 as 14.5-point favorites, and topped Clemson 83-77.  This team is clearly overrated right now based on those results, and they know they'll be in a dog fight today.

"I think they're going to bring their 'A' game when they come back," Trevon Bluiett said. "They've kind of got some motivation now, so, you know, I think we'll be ready for it as well. I think it'll be pretty exciting."

The Panthers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Panthers are 37-18-4 ATS in their last 59 games overall.  They have been an undervalued commodity for three straight seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Nebraska/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -9

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 5-0 start while averaging 104.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (19.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.6 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.6 ppg, 9.4 apg, 5.8 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg) are also returning starters.

Nebraska went 16-18 last season and lost its two best players from that squad in Shavon Shields (16.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Andrew White III (16.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  The program suffered a major blow in the offseason when White unexpectedly left the program and transferred to Syracuse. 

UCLA beat up on Portland 99-77 last night, which allowed its starters to play fewer minutes down the stretch.  Nebraska didn't have the same luxury as it beat an undermanned Dayton team that was missing two key players 80-78.  Three players played at least 30 minutes in that contest for the Huskers.

Nebraska is 10-28 ATS in its last 38 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Cornhuskers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Nebraska is 16-30 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog (NEBRASKA) - after a combined score of 155 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more three straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Weber State -3.5

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 2-2 start this season, losing true road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have six players averaging at least 8.5 points per game, including Jeremy Senglin (21.5 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Iona did go 22-11 last season and made the NCAA Tournament before losing to Iowa State.  But the Gaels lost three starters from last season, including their do-everything guard A.J. English (22.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Isaiah Williams (12.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

I haven't been impressed with Iona at all this season.  They lost by 21 as 14.5-point dogs at Florida State, which is one of the bottom tier teams in the ACC.  And they lost by 15 at Nevada as 12.5-point dogs.  Their only win came against a terrible Drake team by a final of 64-53.  Drake went 7-24 last season and is 1-3 this season with losses to Missouri-KC and South Dakota.

Iona is 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Weber State crushed Cal Davis 86-58 to deliver the goods for us last night and will have plenty left in the tank for Iona tonight.  Bet Weber State Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU +1.5

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 4-1 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites and an 84-57 win over UC-Santa Barbara as 19-point favorites.

Milton (12.0 ppg, 4.0 apg this year), Brown (11.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.0 apg) and Moore (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (20.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (10.2 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

I know SMU didn't fare well in a loss to Michigan, but that was a tough spot as the Wolverines run a bunch of different defenses that are tough to prepare for.  And they had no time to prepare as they were playing a second straight day after beating Pitt the night before.  I like the fact that this team is battle-tested with this tough early schedule.

USC lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers from last season in Nikola Jovanovic and Julian Jacobs.  The Trojans had four other players transfer.  They are counting on up to four freshmen to contribute significantly this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start this year which has them overvalued, but they have played such a soft schedule.

This will be the Trojans' toughest test of the season.  And they certainly aren't hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going as they are shooting just 40.8% as a team overall and 30.5% from 3-point range.  SMU is shooting 47.5% as a team and 38.9% from 3-point range against a much tougher schedule.

The Mustangs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Trojans are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take SMU Friday.

15* UC Davis/Weber State Midnight EST BAILOUT on Weber State -4

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 1-2 start this season, losing road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have four players averaging double-digits scoring, including Jeremy Senglin (22.0 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Conversely, UC Davis is being overvalued due to its 4-1 start this season.  The one loss was a 14-point setback to Tennessee State, while the four wins have come against the likes of Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Holy Names and Sacramento State.

UC Davis is being picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West Conference.  This is a team that went just 11-19 last season and loses three key starters in Josh Fox (14.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg last year), Neal Monson (9.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Brynton Lemar (10.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  They have their two guards back, but they are really hurting on the interior.

Weber State has had a full week to prepare for this game and get better after last playing on November 17th.  UC Davis doesn't have the same luxury having last played on November 21st.  Weber State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 55 points or less.  The Wildcats are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games following a road loss where they scored less than 60 points.  The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. Big West opponents, while the Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes.  Take Weber State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -14.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start while averaging 105.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 27.7 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (20.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (18.8 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.2 ppg, 9.0 apg, 6.2 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Thomas Welsh (10.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg) are also returning starters.

Portland went just 12-20 last season.  First-year head coach Terry Porter has done a good job of getting the Pilots to 3-0, but the wins have come against UC Riverside, San Jose State and Lewis Clark.  This is a big step up in class for the Pilots as they will be overmatched at all positions.

Portland is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 vs. teams who give up at least 77 points per game.  Steve Alford is 13-4 ATS off three straight wins by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Bruins have won all four games by at least 15 points this season, and that streak will improve to five as they get the win and cover in the opener of the Wooden Classic.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/UNC Maui Invitational No-Brainer on North Carolina -4.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been the most impressive team in the country thus far.  They have gone 6-0 with all six wins coming by 15 points or more.  They are averaging nearly 97 points per contest and winning by 29.3 points per game.  Now they're another win from capturing the Maui Invitational title.

Wisconsin doesn't have the firepower to keep up.  We saw that in the Badgers' only loss this season, a 67-79 setback at Creighton despite being 1.5-point favorites.  And Creighton runs and up-tempo style similar to that of the Tar Heels, who just beat Oklahoma State 107-75 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

UNC lost to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 in 2015 and hasn't forgotten.  "Wisconsin knocked us out two years ago, so, of course, it would be great," Justin Jackson said. "But right now we're trying to just focus on Wisconsin. We know they're a really good team, so we've got to focus on them, but obviously a title would be great."

The Badgers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous games.  The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  North Carolina is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Auburn +6

The Auburn Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Bruce Pearl is in his third season and finally has his players in place, which is why this team has performed so well in the early going.

They have guard T.J. Dunans back, who averaged 11.6 points in 16 games before injuring his left knee last season.  Guard Bryce Brown set an Auburn freshman record with 78 3-pointers.  Forward Horace Spencer finished third in the SEC in blocked shots last year.  Forward Danjel Purifoy was a redshirt freshman last year who was their top recruit.  Guard Mustapha Heron is a freshman five-star signee.  Guard Ronnie Johnson was a graduate transfer who average 9.4 points at Houston last year.

Auburn is 3-0 this season and 2-0 ATS in lined games.  It beat North Florida 83-66, Georgia State 83-65 as 7.5-point favorites and Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as 15.5-point favorites.  Texas Tech is also 3-0 with wins over Houston Baptist, North Texas and Eastern Kentucky.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Tech beat Eastern Kentucky by 19, while Auburn beat them by 21.

Purifoy (16.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Heron (14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly living up to their massive potential in the early going.  Jared Harper (11.7 ppg) and Brown (10.0 ppg) are also double-digit scorers.  Harper was rated as the No. 21 point guard nationally and the No. 6 recruit out of Georgia.  The Red Raiders are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.  Bet Auburn Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -9

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 as 14.5-point favorites before dismantling NC State 112-94 as 5.5-point favorites last night.

Ole Miss went 20-12 last season, but it lost three starters from that team in Stefan Moody (23.6 ppg, 4.3 apg), Tomasz Gielo (9.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Anthony Perez (7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg).  The loss of Moody is huge because he was one of the very best players in the country.

Ole Miss is 4-0 this season as well, but I've been much less impressed with its results than Creighton's.  The Rebels only beat Tennessee-Martin 86-83 as 17-point home favorites and UMass 90-88 as 11-point home favorites.  Those two results were alarming, but they also only beat Oral Robers 95-88 as 8-point favorites on a neutral court.  They did cover in an 81-68 win as 2.5-point favorites of St. Joseph's, but St. Joe's is way down this season and that cover is getting them too much respect from the books today.

Since this is the second game in two days for these teams, it's important to look at how many minutes players played last night.  Well, Creighton is so deep that it didn't play anyone more than 29 minutes, and only one player played more than 26 minutes.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss played its best players big minutes.  Deandre Burnett played 36 minutes, Cullen Neal played 34 and Sebastian Saiz played 33.  So, I think this back-to-back hurts Ole Miss more because it lacked the depth of Creighton.

The Bluejays are 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Creighton is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Creighton Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -5.5

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 3-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 yesterday as 14.5-point favorites.

NC State went 16-17 last season and lost its two best players from that team in Anthony Barger (23.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) and Caleb Martin (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg).  The Wolfpack are off to a 3-0 start this season as well, but their wins have been much less impressive.  They only beat Georgia Southern 81-79 as 14-point home favorites, St. Francis-NY 86-61, and Montana 85-72 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

Creighton is 16-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Creighton is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take Creighton Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Davidson -2.5

The Davidson Wildcats returned four starters from last year's team that went 20-13 and made the NCAA Tournament.  They are led by Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg, 5.0 apg last year) and Paton Aldridge (15.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg), two of the top players in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson crushed Missouri 70-55 as 5.5-point favorites yesterday, which is the same Missouri team that took 11th-ranked Xavier to overtime the day before.  Arizona State has not been good at all the past two days in this tournament, and that's why we'll fade the Sun Devils here.

Indeed, ASU lost to Northern Iowa 63-82 despite being a 3.5-point favorite.  It then only beat Tulane 80-71 yesterday as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  That's the same Tulane team that lost by 20 to UNC and by 19 to Oklahoma.

Davidson is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Sun Devils are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.  Roll with Davidson Sunday.

15* Rhode Island/Duke CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +8

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry.

But then I got back on Rhode Island yesterday against Cincinnati because I thought they were undervalued off the non-cover against Brown.  And the Rams delivered with a 76-71 win over Cincinnati as 2-point underdogs.  Now they are 4-0 and out to prove that they are one of the top teams in the country against Duke today.

Duke is overvalued already due to being ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.  But this team is far from full strength as they are forced to play players big minutes due to injury.  They are without star freshmen Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden already.

Then, in their 78-68 win over Penn State yesterday as 19-point favorites, both Grayson Allen and Chase Jeter suffered injuries.  Allen is expected to play through his toe injury today, but Jeter is doubtful with his ankle injury.  Only six players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game this season, and Jeter is one of them, so his loss is big.  And if Allen is hampered at all that's a huge loss because he is their best player.

The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Duke is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Bet Rhode Island Sunday.

15* Cincinnati/Rhode Island Top 25 No-Brainer on Rhode Island +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry, and I think that non-cover has the Rams undervalued going into this showdown with Cincinnati.

After the Brown game, coach Dan Hurley, clearly not pleased, left all of his players in the locker room instead of bringing two with him when he met the media. He called the defensive play of his guards "pathetic." "We shot damn near 60 percent from the field (57.7 percent) and we just got outhustled," said Hurley.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing only their second game in eight days over the past two seasons.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

20* Michigan/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -1

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 3-0 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, and a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites.

Milton (13.0 ppg, 4.3 apg), Brown (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) and Moore (9.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (22.7 ppg, 9.0 rpb) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (11.7 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

No question Michigan's 79-61 win over Marquette yesterday was impressive.  But everything went right for the Wolverines in the first half.  They weren't impressive in their first two games, a 76-58 home win over a Howard team that Marquette beat by 32.  And they only won by 12 over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.  I think they'll be overmatched here.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -1

I won with Marquette in their first two games in dominant performances.  The Golden Eagles won 95-71 as 2-point favorites over Vanderbilt on a neutral court, covering the spread by 22 points.  They also won 81-49 over Howard as 26-point favorites, covering the spread by 6 points.

That was the same Howard team that Michigan had only beaten by 18 in their season opener at home.  So the fact that Marquette lost to Michigan 79-61 last night was pretty much a complete fluke.  The Golden Eagles played terrible in the first half and trailed by 24 points.  But they cut the lead to 12 in the second half and played more up to their capability.

I look for the Golden Eagles to come out hungry tonight to make amends for that loss to Michigan.  They were maybe shell-shocked by playing in Madison Square Garden, which could have contributed to their first-half performance.  But they won't be tonight, and this is a team that won 20 games last year and is on the rise in the third season under Steve Wojciechowski.  They returned four starters this season, including three who averaged double-digits scoring last year.

I believe Pitt is going to struggle this season replacing head coach Jamie Dixon with Kevin Stallings, who consistently underachieved at Vanderbilt.  That has proven to be the case.  Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home, which is the same EMU team that SMU beat by 27.  Pitt only beat Gardner Webb by 19 while SMU beat that same team by 28.  And then Pitt proceeded to lose to SMU 67-76 last night.

Marquette is 8-1 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Pitt is 19-42-1 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Panthers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Marquette Friday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

I've been on Marquette in each of its first two games this season, both blowout wins.  They beat Vanderbilt 95-71 on the road as 2-point favorites and Howard 81-49 at home as 26-point favorites.  That 32-point win against Howard is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.  Michigan only beat Howard by 18 at home, and it followed that up with a lackluster 12-point win over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in November road games over the last three years.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Marquette Thursday.

15* Pitt/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -4

I love the handicap on this game because it's pretty simple.  These teams have two common opponents already through their first two games, and it's easy to see which team is superior when comparing the results.

Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home and only beat Gardner Webb 99-80 at home.  SMU beat Eastern Michigan 91-64 at home and Gardner Webb 72-44 at home.

So, SMU outscored those two teams by an average of 27.5 points per game, while Pitt only outscored them by an average of 11.0 points per game.  I think we are getting a real discount here with SMU being only 4-point favorites over Pitt on a neutral court tonight when comparing common opponents.

Pitt is 3-14 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 13-39-3 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Roll with SMU Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brown +24.5

The Browns Bears and Rhode Island Rams are longtime local rivals.  This is a series that started during the 1909-1910 season with the Rams leading it 104-53 all-time.  The underdog Bears are simply going to want this one more, and they should keep it competitive.

Rhode Island is nationally ranked and overvalued now off two straight wins and covers over Dartmouth and Marist to open the season.  And I think the Rams will be looking ahead to their game against No. 24 Cincinnati and then quite possibly No. 1 Duke over the weekend at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut.

Brown did lose by 29 at Cincinnati in the opener, but came back with an impressive 88-79 home win over Niagara.  Steven Spieth had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists to just barely miss out on a triple-double.  Spieth (10.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.7 apg last year) is one of four returning starters for Brown.  The other three are Travon Blackmon (13.3 ppg, 5.5 apg), JR Hobbie (9.0 ppg, 41.9% 3-pointers) and Obi Okolie (10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Last year Rhode Island needed overtime to beat Brown 88-85 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 20 points or less and by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Only once in the 18 meetings has Rhode Island beating Brown by more than 24.5 points, which was a 25-point win in 2010.  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Bears tonight.  Bet Brown Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -7

The Ball State Cardinals will be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They went 21-14 last season and improved from two wins in conference play to 10 in James Whitford's third season on the job.  Whitford is a former Arizona assistant and one of the most underrated coaches in the game.

Ball State's success last year was largely due to bombing from all angles as they canned 305 3-pointers while ranking 29th nationally in 3s and hitting them at a 37.2 percent clip.  Back for more are the four primary gunners in Francis Kiapway (74 3-pointers), Ryan Weber (70 3-pointers), Jeremie Tyler (59 3-pointers) and Sean Sellers.  They surround second-team All-MAC forward Franko House (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who would normally warrant a double-team.

We saw what Ball State was capable of with its 85-64 win at Saint Louis as 3.5-point favorites, easily covering the spread by 17.5 points.  The Cardinals hit 13 of 23 from 3-point range at a 56.5 percent clip.  House has 23 points and 6 rebounds, but two newcomers in Taylor Persons (21 points) and Tahjal Teague (10 points, 8 rebounds) performed well to show that the Cardinals have an absurd amount of depth.

Indiana State went 15-17 last season and lost two of its best players in Devonte Brown (15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Khristian Smith (10.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg).  The Sycamores return just one player who scored more than 7.8 points per game last season.  They lost 78-80 at Northern Illinois in OT in their opener while shooting just 34.7% from the floor.

Indiana State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Sycamores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Siena +1.5

I fully expect the Siena Saints to run away with the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title this season.  That's because they return all five starters from last year, including MAAC Defensive Player of the Year Javion Ogunyemi (14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 71 blocks) from a team that went 21-13 last season.

Also back are three double-digit scorers in Brett Bisping (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Marquis Wright (14.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Lavon Long (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Kenny Wormley (4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg) is another returning starters, and Nico Clareth (13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is a huge weapon off the bench as he canned 55 3-pointers last season.

I think the fact that Siena didn't cover as 14.5-point favorites in an 89-78 home win over Cornell in their opener has them a bit undervalued here.  But they led that game 48-34 at halftime before getting outscored after intermission.  Wright (31 points), Bisping (23 points, 15 boards), Clareth (14 points) and Ogunyemi (13 points) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Saints.

George Washington is coming off a 28-10 season while winning the NIT title.  But the losses are big for the Colonials as they part ways with three starters in Patricio Garino (14.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Kevin Larsen (12.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Joe McDonald (8.8 ppg, 3.1 apg).  The Colonials really struggled in their opener, only beating Maryland-East Shore 75-71 at home while committing 20 turnovers.

Siena is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick 'em.  Plays against any team (GEORGE WASHINGTON) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season strong with five or more straight wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Siena Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

I like the value we are getting here with the Michigan State Spartans.  They blew a 17-2 lead against Arizona and lost 65-63 on a buzzer-beater in their opener.  I think they are being undervalued because of that loss.

Kentucky is 2-0 with home wins over Stephen F. Austin (87-64) and Canisius (93-69).  But this team is very young and inexperienced as they start three freshmen.  I don't think they are ready to handle this big stage in Madison Square Garden tonight.

I also like the fact that Michigan State has had much more time to prepare and correct its mistakes.  It has had three days off since the loss to Arizona.  Kentucky has only had one day to prepare for Michigan State after beating Canisius on Sunday.

Michigan State is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS off a game where it was called for 27 or more fouls over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 12-30 ATS in their last 42 off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  Take Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Maryland/Georgetown FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown -5.5

The Georgetown Hoyas will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They return four starters in L.J. Peak (12.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Isaac Copeland (11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Marcus Derrickson (7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Bradley Hayes (8.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg).  The Hoyas opened their season with a 105-60 trouncing of USC Upstate.

Maryland will take a big step back this season after winning 27 games last year.  It only brings back one starter in Melo Trimble, and it loses four starters who were all double-digit scorers last year in Diamond Stone (12.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Jake Layman (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Rasheed Sulaimon (11.3 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Robert Carter Jr. (12.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

The Terrapins were awful in their opener as they only beat American 62-56 despiting being 21-point home favorites. They shot just 38.5% from the floor, and Trimble is simply being asked to do too much now.  They also committed 18 turnovers while only forcing 12.  Georgetown forced 26 turnovers in its opener.

The Hoyas are 39-22 ATS in their last 61 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  Georgetown is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten foes.  Maryland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  A loaded Maryland team only beat Georgetown 75-71 as 9-point home favorites last year.  It's revenge time for the Hoyas at home this time around as these teams absolutely hate each other.  Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -24.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Marquette made a statement with a 95-71 win over Vanderbilt on a neutral court as 1.5-point favorites in the opener.  JaJuan Johnson had 21 points and six steals, Luke Fischer had 18 points and 7 rebounds, and Haanif Cheatham had 15 points and 6 boards to lead the way for the Golden Eagles, who shot 52.7% from the floor and held the Commodores to 39.7% shooting.
 
Howard lost 58-76 at Michigan in its opener.  The Bison were expected to have all 5 starters back this season, but they were dealt a big blow with an injury to their best player.  James Daniel might be the best player that you have never heard of.  He averaged 27.1 points per game last season to lead the nation in scoring.  He took an astonishing 37.1 percent of the team's shots, so his loss is absolutely massive for this team.

Howard is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bison are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 lined games overall.  Take Marquette Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +13.5

Eastern Michigan is certainly a 'bet on' team for me this season.  The Eagles are one of the best teams in the MAC because of all that they have returning.  They have five of their top six players back from a team that went 18-15 last year.  They will deliver their fourth consecutive winning season this year and likely compete for a MAC title.

Sophomore center James Thompson IV (14.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg) proved why he signed with an SEC school as a senior in High School.  He and LSU's Ben Simmons, the No. 1 player in the draft, were they only freshmen in the country to average a double-double last year.  He is surrounded by shooters in seniors Willie Mangum IV and Raven Lee, who combined for 113 3-pointers last year.  Binghamton transfer Nick Madray is a solid stretch 4, and Tim Bond is a glue guy who made the MAC's All-Defensive team.

The Eagles already showed what they were capable of with a 90-93 (2 OT) loss at Pittsburgh as 11.5-point underdogs in their opener Friday night.  Now they are catching a big number against an SMU team that I don't believe to be as good as Pitt.

The Mustangs lose three of their best players from last year in Nic Moore (16.1 ppg, 5.2 apg), Jordan Tolbert (11.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Markus Kennedy (9.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg).  Head coach Larry Brown abruptly retired amid contract negotiations in July, and probably due to all the turmoil surrounding the postseason ban last year.  That leaves assistant Tim Jankovich to take over the duties.  SMU is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a home win.  Take Eastern Michigan Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State +1

Ruined by transfer rules allowing graduates to transfer elsewhere and play immediately, Cleveland State lost two starters last year and a third who vacated the year before, leaving head coach Gary Waters in a reclamation project and a drop in the standings to just 9-23 overall.  It was a rare down season for Waters, who is 185-150 at CSU.

But now the Vikings return three starters and will be vastly improved.  They do have to add in six newcomers, but three of them have junior college experience, and four of them are 6-7 or 6-8.  Sophomore G Rob Edwards (12.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and senior F Demonte Flannigan (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) return as the two leading scorers from last year.  Another starter in G Terrell Hales is back, plus four key reserves who played significant minutes return.

Kent State loses three starters from a team that went 19-13 last season.  It also brings back one reserve that played significant minutes last season.  I fully expect the Golden Flashes to take a big step back this season with basically only three players back who contributed last season.

Rob Senderoff is 1-8 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Kent State.  Senderoff is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite as the coach of the Golden Flashes.  This game will be played in Youngstown, Ohio in the Coaches vs Cancer tournament.  Bet Cleveland State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 7-24 last season, but their point differential does not match their record.  They were only outscored by 4.4 points per game on average for the entire season.

This was a very young Drake team last year, but that's the case no longer.  The Bulldogs bring back four starters and five reserves who played last year.  That includes leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) and Graham Woodward (10.8 ppg), both junior guards.  They add in JUCO transfer De'Antae McMurray to a talented backcourt.

South Dakota went 14-18 last season in Craig Smith's second season with the team.  But now the Coyotes are basically starting from scratch.  They lose all five starters from last season, who all averaged at least 8.3 points per game.

Smith brought in some transfers from other schools to help make up for the departures, but I don't expect the Coyotes to exactly be hitting on all cylinders in the early going with all of the losses.  They lost their top six players in terms of minutes from last year.  Take Drake Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Marquette Veterans Classic No-Brainer on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Vanderbilt is in a transition phase as Kevin Stallings left for Pittsburgh.  The Commodores made a solid higher in Bryce Drew from Valparaiso, but I believe there will be some growing pains in his first season.  That's because the Commodores lose their two leading scorers from last year in G Wade Baldwin IV (14.1 ppg, 5.2 apg) and C Damian Jones (13.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) to the NBA.

Marquette is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Marquette Friday.

20* Villanova/UNC Championship Game No-Brainer on North Carolina -2

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been a money-printing machine for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them nearly every game since the start of the tournament.  They have delivered in a big way by going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

While I was on Villanova against Oklahoma, I believe this is not a good matchup at all for the Wildcats.  Their one weakness is a lack of depth on the interior.  Now they're going to be going up against the team with the best interior play in the country in the Tar Heels.

Daniel Ochefu (6-foot-11) is the only player in the Wildcats' rotation taller than 6-7.  UNC has made a living in the paint an on the offensive glass with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.  In fact, they have rebounded nearly 50 percent of their own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament, which is a massive advantage.

Villanova is 4-12 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* UNC/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on North Carolina -9

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been an absolute money make for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them virtually every game since, and they haven't let me down once.  So I'm a bit biased, but at the same time I've said all along that they are the best team in the country, and my pick to win the tournament.

That being said, I still view this game from an unbiased view.  While the price (-9) is a little high, I still feel like the Tar Heels will get the job done by double-digits against Syracuse and get us the cover Saturday.  Here are a few reasons why.

What I love most about the Tar Heels is that they have the best interior game in the country.  Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks for the best trio of big men in the land.  They do all the dirty work, and they consistently get easy buckets inside.

In fact, they have rebounded a mind-blowing 46 percent of the Tar Heels' own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament.  So, essentially the get an offensive rebound on nearly 50 percent of possessions.  That's unheard of, and it leads to extra possessions that other teams simply don't get.

UNC has scored an absurd 1.33 points per possession over its last four games.  Marcus Paige has attempted 66 percent of his shots from the 3-point line in the tournament, and he's made them at a 48 percent clip.  Joel Berry II is a sharpshooter as well and one of the most underrated guards in the country.  This is the best starting lineup in the land, and the Tar Heels also have one of the deepest benches to compliment it.

Give Syracuse credit for making the Final Four, but its run stops here.  In the Orange's wins over Gonzaga and Virginia, they were outplayed for close to 70 of the 80 minutes.  But they got desperate late and turned the games into chaos, abandoning the 2-3 zone.  It worked against both of those teams, but it's not going to work against Carolina.

The Tar Heels have the big men who can hit that shot from roughly 12-15 feet in the middle of the 2-3 zone, so they are going to torch Syracuse's defense all game long.  If the Orange go back to pressing like they did against Gonzaga and Virginia, the Tar Heels prefer to play up-tempo anyways, and they'll torch them there as well.

UNC relies on the 3-point shot the least of any of the four teams remaining.  They only shoot 20 percent of their shots from distance.  They swept the season series with the Orange despite only shooting 22 percent from 3-point range.  A little betting shooting from distance, coupled with dominant inside play, and this one will be a blowout as expected.

Syracuse is not a good shooting team.  In its last two games, it has only shot 36 percent from the floor.  The only saving grace was its work at the free throw line, which saw the Orange convert 34 of 41 attempts the past two games.  An off night shooting will give them no chance of competing with the Tar Heels, and that is likely to occur once again.

UNC is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  UNC is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games.  The Orange are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

25* Villanova/Oklahoma College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova -2

The Villanova Wildcats want revenge from a 78-55 loss to Oklahoma in Hawaii back in December.  They were already going to be motivated because it's the Final Four, but any extra edge they can get helps, and that will fuel their fire.

But the Wildcats made just 4-of-32 attempts from 3-point range against the Sooners that day, so they obviously weren't going to win shooting 12.5 percent from distance.  This team has been on fire in the month of March, and they'll continue hot shooting that against the Sooners in the Final Four.

The Wildcats are averaging 82.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 55 percent overall and 46 percent from 3-point range.  They have been one of the best defensive teams in the country all season, too, allowing just 63.6 points per game.  They are the definition of "team" basketball, and I'll gladly take that over Oklahoma, which is way too reliant on Buddy Hield.

Villanova has shown an ability to outscore opponents with its 92 points on 59 possessions against Miami in the Sweet 16.  Then it showed it could grind it out with a 64-59 win over Kansas, which was arguably the most impressive defensive performance of the tournament so far.  That win over Kansas is important because the Jayhawks were the best team in the Big 12 this season, and they even beat Oklahoma twice.

No question the entire focus is going to be on stopping Buddy Hield, and you can bet the Wildcats will make someone else try and beat them.  It worked for West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament as the Mountaineers held Hield to 1-of-8 shooting.  Look for the Wildcats to deploy a similar tactic in this one.

This game could certainly come down to free throws, and if it does, I like Villanova's chances there as well.  The Wildcats have shot 85 percent from the line in the tournament, including 95 percent over their last two games.  Both Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson have yet to miss in the tournament, and Ryan Arcidiacono is 13-of-14 (93 percent).  Against Kansas, they were outscored from the 3-point line, and both teams hit the same number of 2-pointers (17).  Free throws made the difference.

Villanova is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  The Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* ND/UNC Elite 8 No-Brainer on North Carolina -9.5

I've been on the North Carolina Tar Heels since the beginning of the ACC Tournament.  They haven't once let me down since then, and they aren't about to in the Elite 8 against overmatched Notre Dame.

UNC is the most complete team left in the tournament with zero weaknesses.  My favorite thing about the Tar Heels is that they are dominant inside.  They have the best interior game of any team in the country, which means great rebounding, easy buckets, and 2nd chance points.

The Tar Heels have won eight straight games coming in.  All eight were against NCAA Tournament competition.  That includes a 78-47 blowout of Notre Dame on a neutral court already.  They don't have to win by 31 today, just 10 to cover this number, and that won't be a problem.

Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Fighting Irish are extremely lucky to be here as they've won in the final seconds of all three games in the tournament so far.  Their luck runs out today.  Bet North Carolina Sunday.

15* Syracuse/Virginia Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +8

The Virginia Cavaliers are way overvalued after beating Iowa State in the Sweet 16.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but actually were outscored by the Cyclones the rest of the way.  Some shady officiating aided their win as well.

Now, the Cavaliers are 8-point favorites over the Syracuse Orange.  Syracuse is a team that has the length to defend Virginia, unlike Iowa State.  The Orange will present plenty of problems for the Cavaliers, who only have one day to prepare for this zone.

These teams met once this season with Virginia winning 73-65 at home as 9.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  There's a very good chance this game is decided by 8 points or less in the rematch, especially since it's on a neutral court he 2nd time around.

Syracuse is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three years.  Take Syracuse Sunday.

20* Oklahoma/Oregon Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon -1.5

The Oregon Ducks have been getting a lot of grief in this tournament, but they have proven themselves to be the real deal.  The Pac-12 did not show well in the tournament, but the Ducks are far and away the best team in the conference, and that is proving to be the case in the NCAA Tournament.

Now the Ducks will prove it in the Elite 8 once again against Oklahoma.  They are coming off a 14-point win over Duke in an absolutely dominant showing.  It helps that they have a nice home-court advantage that game and this one will be played on the West Coast in Anaheim.

Both teams are elite offensively, but the difference in this game is going to be defense, and there's no doubting that the Ducks are the better defensive team.  Dating back to the Pac-12 Championship, they have held their last four opponents to an average of 60.3 points per game.  They have won 11 straight games coming in.

Oregon is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Ducks are 53-24-3 ATS in their last 80 games following a ATS win.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* UNC/Indiana Side & Total PARLAY on UNC -5.5/UNDER 159

Reasons for North Carolina:

The Tar Heels are the lone exception in terms of ACC teams being overrated coming into the Sweet 16.  There are six ACC teams in the Sweet 16, and they have a 12-1 record overall.  But the Tar Heels are the only team that I believe is legit.

In fact, I picked them to win the NCAA Tournament because they are the only team that I believe has no weaknesses.  They have the best post play of any team in the tournament behind Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, and they have two of the best guards in the big dance in Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige.  They also go deep on the bench in came anyone gets in foul trouble.

Indiana is getting a lot of love right now for its win over Kentucky, but the fact of the matter is that the Wildcats simply had an off night.  Give the Hoosiers some credit for winning that game, but now they'll be up against the best team they have faced all season in the Tar Heels.

Where this game is going to be won is in the paint.  The only way to stop Carolina is to be able to stop them inside, but Indiana isn't built to do that.  Teams have been torching the Hoosiers all year in the paint, and that won't change in this match-up.  I'll gladly side with the team that is going to get easy buckets inside and dominate the glass than the one that has to rely on outside shooting to win games, which is Indiana.

The Hoosiers also have some key injuries that they'll have to overcome in this one.  Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan were both injured and knocked out of the game against Kentucky.  While both are probable to play Friday, I have to question their effectiveness, especially Johnson who looked like he couldn't move his shoulder at all.

UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with all seven victories coming against NCAA Tournament teams, and four of those coming by 16 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.  Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC teams.  Take North Carolina Friday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Admittedly, Indiana has been better defensively as the season has gone on.  The Hoosiers wound up finishing 3rd in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and they held Kentucky to less than a point per possession.  It was an off night for the Wildcats, but impressive nonetheless.

While I do think UNC will score plenty of points to cover, I don't believe it will top 80 points in this one.  The key will be its defense holding Indiana to 70 or less, which I think is a fair assumption.  The Tar Heels were underrated defensively this season as they ranked 3rd in the 15-team ACC in defensive efficiency.  Over their last seven games, the Tar Heels have allowed over a point per possession only once, and four of those games were played against teams still in the tournament.

Over it last 20 games, UNC has played in only one contest that saw more than 160 combined points.  Over its last 21 games, Indiana has seen only two of its games surpassing 160 combined points in regulation.  That's a combined 38-3 angle backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 159 points.  This one will be lower-scoring than expected.  Roll with the UNDER.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The Iowa State Cyclones came into the NCAA Tournament underrated.  They didn't live up to expectations in the regular season, but that was because they had some injuries, suspensions and a lack of depth slow them down for much of the year.

It's no secret that Iowa State was poor on defense for a lot of the year, but the biggest reason for that was that they didn't pressure teams as much because they didn't want to get into foul trouble.  Well, that has changed in the NCAA Tournament as their defense has taken a couple steps in the right direction.

Yes, Iona scored 81 points on them in their opener, but Iona shoots the ball within 15 seconds on most possessions.  The Cyclones still won that game by 13 points, 94-81.  They also beat Little Rock 78-61 and held them to 37% shooting for the game.  That's the same Little Rock team that upset Purdue in the 1st round, and one that won 30 games this year.

So, the defense is getting better, and now it is keeping up with ISU's offense, which ranks 3rd in the country in efficiency.  The Cyclones average 82.1 points per game, shoot 50.3% from the field, and 38.6% from the 3-point line.  Their offense is the reason they will pull this upset against Virginia.

Virginia's pack-line defense gets a lot of hype, and for good reason, because it is one of the best in the country.  However, there are a couple ways to beat it, and Iowa State just so happens to have the ingredients to do so.

First, you need to be able to shoot from outside, which Iowa State excels at in making 38.6% from distance.  Second, you need a player who can pass out of double-teams in the post.  Georges Niang may be the best post player in the country in finding open teammates, and his is certainly the toughest matchup in the country.  He will test Virginia's defense like it hasn't been tested yet this season.

Many say that Iowa State has to run to be efficient, but that's simply not the case.  And running against Virginia is a recipe for disaster.  The best way to beat Virginia is to move the ball around and wear out the Cavaliers, and the Cyclones are great at that.  They are actually one of the most efficient half-court offenses in the country, and you can bet that Steve Prohm will emphasis ball movement against Virginia.  Their 16 assists per game is also one of the top marks in the land.

The ACC being 12-1 in the NCAA Tournament is giving most of their teams too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers.  I think that's certainly the case with Virginia.  The average seed the ACC has beaten is 11.8, so they were supposed to advance in most cases.

Butler was able to hang with Virginia for 40 minutes, and the Bulldogs aren't nearly as good of a team as Iowa State. It took a late surge and plenty of free throws in the final seconds for Virginia to put away Butler with a 77-69 final.  Butler is a solid offensive team that put up 69 points on this Virginia defense, but like I said, the Bulldogs are nothing compared to Iowa State offensively.

Virginia owned Butler on offense by shooting 55.8% for the game, but that's not going to happen against this improved Iowa State defense that has shot-blocker Jamaal McKay protecting the rim, and two elite perimeter defenders in Monte Morris and Matt Thomas who match up very well with London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon, respectively.

The Cavaliers really only have three guys that can beat you in Brogdon, Anthony Gill and Perrantes being the only players averaging more than 6.9 points per game.  Iowa State has six guys that can beat you with six players averaging in double-figures scoring coming into the NCAA Tournament, one of only two teams in the country who can claim that.

It's also worth noting that the Cyclones should have a nice home-court advantage as this game will be played in Chicago, just about a six-hour drive from Ames, IA. It's also important to note that 7 of Iowa State's 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less, especially considering they are getting 5 points here.  All 11 losses came by 10 points or fewer as well.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest over the last three years.  They are actually losing by 2.6 points per game on average in these spots.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Duke/Oregon Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3

The ACC is overrated as a whole with a 12-1 record in the NCAA Tournament that has come against teams with an average seed of 11.8.  I have not been impressed at all with Duke.  It needed to overcome a halftime deficit to beat UNC-Wilmington 93-85, and it needed late free throws to top Yale 71-64.

But now the Blue Devils take a massive step up in competition against Oregon.  For whatever reason, the Ducks just don't get the respect they deserve.  A lot of that has to do with the Pac-12 only having one team left, but the Ducks were far and away the best team in the conference all season.  I think the poor perception of the Pac-12 has kept this line lower than it should be, while the tremendous perception of the ACC has also contributed to that.

Oregon has won 10 straight games while rarely getting tested.  However, it was tested finally in a 69-64 win over St. Joseph's in which the Ducks had to erase a late deficit to win.  I think that effort will have this team glimmering with confidence coming in.  Because if this game gets close late, which I don't expect it will, the Ducks have the balls to get it done.

From a matchup standpoint, Duke's biggest weakness is it's lack of depth.  That will come into play here.  Duke's defense has been exposed by more athletic teams all season, and the Ducks are extremely athletic and aggressive at attacking the rim.  They will put a ton of pressure on Duke in that aspect to stay out of foul trouble.

The Ducks attempt 24 free throws per game against teams that only allow 21 free throw attempts per game, so that just goes to show their attacking style.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the tournament as they average 78.9 points on 46.8% shooting.  They are also the better defensive team here, giving up 68.5 points per game against opponents that average 74.3 points per game.

Oregon is also going to have a huge edge in the paint.  Duke has struggled rebounding all year.  Well, Oregon has a ton of size inside and is relentless in attacking the basket and the offensive glass.  The Blue Devils have actually been outrebounded on the season, and Yale owned them on the glass with a 42-28 rebounding edge.

The Ducks will have a heavy home-court advantage in this one as this game will be played on the West Coast out in Anaheim.  Duke is 1-7 ATS in neutral court games this season.  The Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  The Blue Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* GA Tech/SDSU ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +5

We've seen how strong the ACC has been with six teams in the Sweet 16, which is the most for a single conference since 1975.  Now, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are representing the conference very well in the NIT.  I look for that to continue tonight.

Georgia Tech has absolutely destroyed two very good teams to reach the quarterfinals.  It beat Houston 81-62 at home as 3.5-point favorites, and then went on the road and beat South Carolina 83-66 as 4.5-point dogs.  Many felt the Gamecocks should have been in the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State has had a much easier path to the quarterfinals.  It beat IUPU-Fort Wayne at home in its first game, and then Washington in its second game.  I would argue that both South Carolina and Houston are better than either of the teams that SDSU has defeated.

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Yellow Jackets have had a combined 78-46 rebounding edge over their first two opponents in the NIT, and their ability to win the battle on the glass in this game will be key to them covering this 5-point spread.  Roll with Georgia Tech Wednesday.

15* St. Mary's/Valpo ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Valparaiso -3.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders certainly felt like they belonged in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't feeling sorry for themselves.  Instead, they are taking care of business thus far in the NIT.

Indeed, they rolled Texas Southern 84-73 and then topped a very good Florida State team from the ACC two days later 81-69.  The Crusaders are now 16-1 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of nearly 19 points per game.

Valpo has a huge rest advantage here against St. Mary's.  It last played on March 17, while St. Mary's last played two days ago in a home win over Georgia.  The Gaels have had to travel to Valpo on short notice and have had little time to prepare for the Crusaders.  That's a big disadvantage.

St. Mary's is 2-10 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Valpo is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 80% over the last two seasons.  The Crusaders are 9-0 ATS versus teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the Crusaders.  Take Valpo Tuesday.

20* St. Joe's/Oregon CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -6.5

The Oregon Ducks just keep flying under the radar.  Of all the No. 1 seeds, they are the one that most are picking to get upset before the Final Four.  But make no mistake, this team is the real deal and one that will be playing in the Final Four in my opinion.

The Ducks cruised to a 29-6 season and have won nine straight coming in, including an 88-57 win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship and a 91-52 win over Holy Cross in the opening round.  I like the way this team is playing right now, and only laying 6.5 to St. Joe's in what will be a home atmosphere in Spokane is simply not enough.

I like this St. Joe's team and was on them against Cincinnati, but they are in trouble here.  The Hawks allowed Cincinnati's woeful offense to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and gave up 76 points and 10 3-pointers.

If the Bearcats had one of their best offensive nights of the season, just imagine what this highly-efficient Oregon offense that scores 79.2 points per game is going to do?  St. Joe's has won four of its last six, but it has also given up 82.5 points per game during that stretch, and none of those opponents are as good as Oregon offensively.

Oregon is 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Oregon is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS win.  Take Oregon Sunday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -4.5

Xavier represents my favorite play in the East Region of the 2016 NCAA Tournament.  I look for them to roll over the Wisconsin Badgers as short 4.5-point favorites today.

Xavier ended up covering in a 71-53 win over Weber State as 13.5-point favorites, but this game was a bigger blowout than the final score even scored.  The Musketeers missed more than 10 wide open layups, otherwise it would have been an even bigger trouncing.  But since they didn't win by more, this line is lower than it should be.

Wisconsin's win over Pitt is also keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Badgers managed to win despite only scoring 47 points as Pitt went ice cold in the 2nd half.  These teams combined for only 90 points, which is absolutely embarrassing with the 30-second shot clock.

I believe Wisconsin is a fraud and is due for a huge regression against the right opponent.  Xavier is that opponent as it has a team with far better athletes and scoring.  Purdue is very similar to Xavier in terms of size and personnel.  The Boilermakers held a combined 67-48 rebounding edge and a 47-28 edge at the free throw line against Wisconsin in both regular-season meetings.

Wisconsin is 2-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Remember, this team lost to Nebraska 58-70 in the Big Ten Tournament.  The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents.  The Musketeers are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  Xavier is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 non-conference games as well.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -1

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 70-56 upset win over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers played their worst game of the season to give that game away, with a ton of turnovers and wide open layups missed all game long.

Notre Dame is a veteran team that won't make those same mistakes.  The Fighting Irish are one of the best turnover teams in the country as they only give it away 10 times per game.  They are a much better offensive team than West Virginia, shooting 47.4% for season and 37.3% from 3-point range.  They will beat the Stephen F. Austin press and convert, unlike WVU.

I love backing great point guards against the press, and the Fighting Irish certainly have one in their best player in Demetrius Jackson.  He averages 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He also only turns the ball over two times per game, which is pretty good considering how often the ball is in his hands.

Notre Dame is 19-9 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games after 15-plus games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.  Roll with Notre Dame Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UConn +8

The UConn Huskies are showing great value today as big underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks.  This is a game that they can take down to the wire and possibly pull off the upset.

UConn is clearly one of the hottest teams in the country right now.  It rolled through the AAC Tournament, and it came from behind to beat Colorado 74-67 in the Sweet 16.  I like the fact that Colorado played the early game on Thursday and was able to watch Kansas after, too.

This is a good matchup for the Huskies.  Their strength is their defense, both on the interior and with their guards.  They give up just 63.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting against teams that average 72.5 points on 43.6% shooting.  They pressure the opponent all the way out to half court in their man defense.  Their ability to guard Frank Mason and Devonte Graham on the perimeter is going to be huge in this one.

UConn is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 NCAA Tournament games, and 37-15-1 ATS in its last 53 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Kansas is 2-9 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones exorcised their demons from losing to UAB last year with an impressive 94-81 win over Iona in the opening round.  Look for this team to continue playing with a chip on its shoulder today.

Iowa State caught a break when Arkansas-Little Rock upset Purdue in double-overtime.  Purdue would have been a bad matchup for them because of its size, but this is a much better one.  Little-Rock overcame a 13-point deficit with under four minutes remaining to win in double-OT.  They will be the more tired team because of it, and they played after Iowa State, so the Cyclones had a chance to watch them after beating Iona.

Little-Rock is a smaller team similar to what Iona was.  The Cyclones feast on small teams because they can't be stopped offensively.  They rank 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are one of only two teams in the land with at least six players averaging 10 points per game coming into the tournament.

Little-Rock is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/St. Joe's Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Joseph's +1.5

The St. Joseph's Hawks have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball all season.  Bettors who backed them all year would have gone 22-11 ATS in all of their games.  And the Hawks continue to get no respect as underdogs to Cincinnati here.

The Hawks won the Atlantic 10 Tournament with wins over three of the best teams in the conference, including two tournament teams in Dayton and VCU.  They rolled VCU 87-74 in the Championship Game, and now they come into the NCAA Tournament with a ton of confidence.

The tandem of Isaiah Miles (18.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and DeAndre Bembrey (17.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.5 apg) gives the Hawks one of the best frontcourts in the country.  These two have really stepped up their games even more down the stretch as the Hawks have put up at least 82 points in four of their last five games overall, and 70 or more points in 12 straight.  They're really unstoppable offensively.

Cincinnati is a very good defensive team, but I think it will struggle to find easy baskets in this one.  The Hawks force teams to beat them with the 3-pointer, and the Bearcats just have never been a very good outside shooting team.  While they are better this season only slightly, they still shoot just 34.5% from 3-point range.

I've watched plenty of Cincinnati this season, and it is simply too predictable.  Time and time again, Troy Caupain has to bail them out with a last second shot on offense.  And he isn't a very efficient scorer at all, shooting just 37.5% from the field and 32.1% from the 3-point line.  He simply is asked to do too much for this team, especially with all the nagging injuries right now.  Farad Cobb (knee), Gary Clark (ankle), Caupain (back) and Shaquille Thomas (groin) are all banged up heading into the tournament.

What stood out to me in this one is common opponents.  These teams had three common opponents this year in George Washington, Temple and VCU.  St. Joseph's went 4-1 against them and outscored them by 7.0 points per game, while Cincinnati went 2-2 against them and outscored them by only 0.5 points per game.

St. Joseph's beat Temple 66-65 on the road, while Cincinnati lost to Temple 70-77 at home and 65-67 on the road.  Cincinnati only beat George Washington by 5 on a neutral court, while St. Joseph's beat George Washington by a combined 24 points in two meetings this season, both of which were away from home.  They won by 18 on the road and by 6 on a neutral court.

Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  St. Joseph's is 9-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Hawks.  Roll with St. Joseph's Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -7

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public heading into the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they haven't lost a game in the 2016 calendar year, so they are the hot, trendy pick coming in.  I'm not buying it.

Stephen F. Austin played in the lowly Southland Conference, going 20-0 against conference competition this season when you include the Southland Tournament.  The second and third place finishers in the Southland this season were Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Incarnate Word, if that tells you anything about how bad this conference was.

A closer look at SFA's non-conference record tells the story about how good this team really is.  The Lumberjacks went 7-5 outside the conference.  They lost by 42 at Baylor, which is a team that West Virginia beat twice this season by double-digits both times.  The Lumberjacks also lost by 10 at Northern Iowa, lost to AAC bottom-feeder Tulane on a neutral court, and lost at Arizona State by 7 and at UAB by 10.

So, West Virginia is going to be the best team that SFA has faced all season.  The Mountaineers finished 2nd in the Big 12 regular season standings and 2nd in the Conference Tournament.  Despite that feat in the toughest conference in the country, the Mountaineers continue to get no respect from anyone.  They should be more than a 7-point favorite here.

Both teams like to force turnovers with up-tempo pressure, but West Virginia is better at it.  It presses on 37 percent of opponents' possessions, which is the highest press rate in the nation.  Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that WVU grabs more of its own misses (42.1 percent) on offense than any other team in the country.  Those extra possessions will go a long way in helping the Mountaineers cover this 7-point spread.

Stephen F. Austin played the 260th-toughest schedule in the country, while West Virginia played the 24th-toughest.  The Mountaineers went 11-2 in non-conference games with their only two losses coming on the road to Virginia and Florida.  All 11 of their wins came by 8 points or more, including 10 by 13 points or more.

West Virginia is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 postseason tournament games, including 19-6 ATS in its last 25 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  I'll lay the points with the more battle-tested team from the Big 12 laying the small number here.  Take West Virginia Friday.v

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -14

I believe the Oklahoma Sooners come into the NCAA Tournament getting overlooked.  They were ranked No. 1 in the country at one point this season, but they failed to even earn a No. 1 seed after letting Kansas overtake them in the Big 12.  Their somewhat shaky finish has them undervalued.

But make no mistake, Oklahoma is a national title contender.  The Sooners finished 25-7 this season five of their seven losses coming by 5 points or less, including a triple-OT loss at Kansas, a 5-point loss at Iowa State, another 4-point loss to Kansas, and a 2-point loss to WVU in the Big 12 Tournament in which Buddy Hield hit the game-winner, only to have it called off as it came just after the clock hit zero.

I think that loss in the Big 12 Tournament has given the Sooners some extra time to correct some mistakes and get back to playing how they were when they were the No. 1 team in the country.  Of course, stepping outside of the rugged Big 12, the best conference in the country, certainly works in their favor here as well.

Now the Sooners get to play one of the worst teams they have all season in CS-Bakersfield.  The Sooners went 12-0 in non-conference games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game.  That includes road wins over Memphis, Villanova (by 23), Hawaii and LSU.

Bakersfield played in the weak WAC this season and finished in a tie for second place.  It went 10-5 in non-conference games while playing the 322nd-toughest schedule in the country.  It went 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 and only played one team in the RPI Top 50.  Two losses that stood out to me were a 35-point loss at Saint Mary's and a 16-point loss at Arizona State.  Their biggest win all season came against Grand Canyon University.

Now, Bakersfield is up against the best team it has faced all season in Oklahoma.  The Sooners essentially get a home game to boot as this game will be played in Oklahoma City.  The Sooners went 14-1 at home this season, and while it's not a true home game, it might as well be.  They will feed off of the energy of the crowd and put it on Bakersfield from the opening tip in what I expect to be one of the biggest blowouts of the first round.

After playing the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, and going through the Big 12 gauntlet, the Sooners will welcome this game against lowly CS-Bakersfield to get back on track.  They can name the score here.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* Providence/USC Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on on Providence -2

The Providence Friars looked like a Final Four team early in the year.  They opened 14-1 with their only loss coming to Michigan State on a neutral court.  But then they got into a bit of a rut midseason and may have been worn down from their lack of depth.

However, they regrouped in time to go 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games overall and are back to playing how they did at the beginning of the season.  I like this momentum they have built up, and I also like the fact that they will be rested coming in so their lack of depth won't be an issue here.

The Friars boast not on, but two, of the best players in the country.  Ben Bentil is a forward who scores 21.2 points per game and grabs 7.8 rebounds per game.  He is impossible to stop.  Kris Dunn is arguably the best point guard in the land, averaging 165.0 points, 6.4 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game.

USC has gone the other direction down the stretch.  It is 3-7 in its last 10 games overall with all seven losses coming by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits, so it has rarely even been competitive.  Now the Trojans have to head all the way out to the East Coast in Raleigh, NC in what will be a favorable crowd for the Friars.

All of USC's key wins this season have come at home, while it is just 5-10 in road/neutral games this season.  Providence has been great on the road, going 10-6 in road/neutral games.  The Trojans have just one road/neutral win over a Top 50 opponent, which was Wichita State, who were playing without Fred VanVleet that game.

Providence beat Arizona on a neutral court this season, a team that is much stronger than USC from the Pac-12.  USC lost to Xavier by 10 on a neutral court, a team that is only slightly better than Providence.

The Friars are 10-2 ATS in March road games over the last three seasons.  Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  USC is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two years.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents.   The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +8.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are playing as well as almost anyone entering the NCAA Tournament.  Everyone picked San Diego State to win the Mountain West, but the Bulldogs were having non of it.  They kept rolling right along en route to a MWC Tournament title.

Indeed, Fresno State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes wins over UNLV (by 13), Colorado State (by 8) and San Diego State (by 5) in their three conference tournament games.  They also went on the road and beat Wyoming by 4 as 2-point dogs, New Mexico by 10 as 6.5-point dogs, and Utah State by 1 as 3.5-point dogs.

Utah also finished strong, aside from an absolute laugher in a 57-88 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  The Utes had won nine straight prior to that loss, which I believe has them overvalued coming in.  Each of their final four wins during that streak came by 8 points or fewer.

But what really stands out to me is common opponents.  These teams are pretty much dead even in common opponents.  Fresno State is 3-3 against the same teams that Utah has played, winning by 0.5 points per game.  Utah is 3-3 against those same teams, actually getting outscored by 0.2 points per game.

Fresno State went on the road and played both Arizona and Oregon tough this season, two teams I believe to be better than Utah in the Pac-12.  They lost by 13 as 12.5-point dogs at Arizona and by 5 as 11.5-point dogs at Oregon in a pair of true road games.  Utah was beaten three times by Oregon this season by 31, 18 and 10 points.  The Utes also only beat San Diego State by 5 at home, another MWC team that Fresno State beat twice and lost to in OT in the other meeting.

Fresno State likes to limit possessions by playing at a slow pace similar to Utah.  The good thing is that Fresno State forces turnovers on 20.8 percent of opponents' possession, good for 37th-best in the country.  Utah is prone to turnovers of its own, and it struggles against teams that play at a slow pace and force turnovers.  Teams similar to Fresno State in that respect are Oregon, Wichita State and Miami.  Utah lost to Miami by 24, Wichita State by 17, and Oregon by a combined 59 points in their three meetings.

The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Bet Fresno State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +9

Arkansas-Little Rock is one of my favorite small-school teams in the country.  I've had the opportunity to watch them a handful of times, and I come away impressed every time.  This team is a Giant Killer that could pull off the upset against Purdue in the opening round.

The Trojans just completed a history 29-4 season and beat some very good teams along the way.  They earned two true road wins against both San Diego State (49-43) and Tulsa (64-60) as 16.5-point and 10.5-point underdogs in non-conference action.

Three of their four losses this year came by 6 points or less, so that makes for a 32-1 system backing them when you figure they have only lost one game all season by more than 9 points.  They capped off their season with a 20-point win over Louisiana-Monroe in the Sun Belt Championship.

KenPom has the Trojans as the 47th-best team in the country.  They force turnovers at a high rate (21.4 percent), play at a very slow pace, and they take care of the ball (15.9 percent turnover rate).  They hit 38.7 percent of their 3-pointers offensively as well.

Defensively, the Trojans let teams fire away from deep (40 percent of attempts), yet hold them to just 30.1 percent (7th in the country).  So they pack it in and don't let you get easy shots inside, which is the perfect formula for beating Purdue, which focuses on getting the ball to its bigs on the interior.  The Trojans are the 28th-best team in the country defensively in allowing fewest post up points per possession.

Purdue turns the ball over a lot (17.8 percent), which ranked 11th in Big Ten play this season.  Little Rock has the sixth-best steals rate (6.3 percent) in the country, and again forces turnovers on 21.4 percent of opponents possessions.

Little Rock is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% or more of its games this season.  Little Rock is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game this season.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas-Little Rock Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -5

The Baylor Bears played the third-toughest schedule in the entire country and managed to get through it at 21-11. Their 10-8 mark in Big 12 play was only good enough for a tie for 5th place in the regular season. And their only two non-conference losses this season, both on the road to Oregon and Texas A&M, obviously don’t look bad now.

Baylor seems to make a run in the NCAA Tournament almost every year. It has a very difficult style to prepare for with its zone defense causing opponents all kinds of issues. But even more frustrating for the opposition is the way they attack the offensive glass. Their 14.0 second-chance points per game are the most in the Big 12, and they outscore opponents by 5.6 second-chance points per game, which is the highest differential among major conference teams.

Rico Gathers (11.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is the biggest culprit as he rebounds 19.1 percent of his team’s missed shots when he’s on the floor. Taurean Prince (15.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is an NBA prospect, while Al Freeman (11.5 ppg,) and Johnathan Motley (11.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are key contributors as well. Lester Medford (9.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg) runs the show at the point.

Yale (22-6) went 13-1 in Ivy League play to beat out Princeton by one game and punch its ticket into the big dance. Outside the conference, the Bulldogs went 9-5 and only really lost to the best teams they played. They only lost by 2 at SMU and by 4 at Illinois, but they were blown out on the road by Duke (by 19), Albany (by 34) and USC (by 12).  They had only one RPI Top 100 win all season, which came against Princeton at home by 4.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive conference games this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Scott Drew is 28-14 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Baylor. That loss was a 4-point defeat to Kansas in what was essentially a home game for the Jayhawks in Kansas City.

This is one of the weakest lines in the opening round of the tournament in my opinion. Baylor should be more than a 5-point favorite over Yale. The Bulldogs are getting too much credit for the season they had in the Ivy League, which is one of the worst conferences in the country.

We saw them get blown out by Duke, USC, and Albany out of conference, while also losing to SMU and Illinois. Now they will face arguably the best team they have all season in Baylor, and they’re only getting five points? Give me a break

Baylor will dominate the boards like it has all season and frustrate Yale with its length in the zone defense. The Bears also have the better guards in this one, which is key.  Baylor forces more turnovers per possession than any team that Yale has faced all season.  Those extra possessions will add up to a blowout win for the Bears.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Tulsa/Michigan First Four ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +4

Without question, Tulsa (20-11) is the one team that most feel does not belong in the NCAA Tournament. But the Golden Hurricane will be using that as motivation to prove their naysayers wrong. UCLA was in the same position last year and went on to advance to the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed.

The Golden Hurricane finished in a three-way tie for third place in the American Athletic Conference. Four of the top six teams in this conference made the big dance, with the exceptions being Houston and SMU (not eligible). The committee didn’t penalize Tulsa for losing twice to Memphis in 12 days by a combined 32 points.

Perhaps the biggest reason Tulsa got the nod is that it had 8 wins against the RPI Top 100, going 8-8 against those teams with the 62nd-toughest schedule in the country. Wins over then-No. 9 Wichita State and then-No. 16 SMU certainly bolstered their chances.

This is a veteran Tulsa team that returned five starters from last year and has seven seniors in the nine-man rotation. It has three very talented players carrying the load in James Woodard (15.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (14.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) and Pat Birt (12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg).

The betting public is all over Michigan, moving the opening line from -3 all the way up to -4 and -4.5 in some places. This is no surprise with all of the negative publicity the Golden Hurricane are receiving heading into the NCAA Tournament. Literally nobody had Tulsa in the field Sunday afternoon, except for the committee.

I believe Haith and this veteran roster are going to use that as motivation. We saw UCLA make a run to the Sweet 16 when nobody thought they should have gotten in last year, and this team is just as capable. With seven seniors in the rotation, these guys will be out to prove a point come Wednesday night.

Tulsa is 11-2 ATS in road games off two straight games where its opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons. Frank Haith is 54-34 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Bet Tulsa Wednesday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wichita State First Four No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4

While everyone is calling Wichita State the most dangerous team in the field, equally scary is Vanderbilt (19-13), which many projected not to even make the NCAA Tournament after losing to Tennessee 65-67 in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, that loss did not keep them out because they had too many other quality wins.

Indeed, the Commodores had 8 wins against the RPI top 100 this season. They have wins over then-No. 8 Texas A&M and then-No. 16 Kentucky. One sign that this team is better than its record is that it didn’t fare well in close games this season. Indeed, the Commodores suffered 10 of their 13 losses by single-digits, so they were in almost every game they played.

This is a veteran team that has plenty of balance with five players averaging 8.9 points per game or more. Leading the way are a pair of future NBA guards in Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Damian Jones (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Luke Kornet (8.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) does a little bit of everything, and he can shoot the 3-pointer as well, making him a tough matchup.

I believe Wichita State to be overvalued due to what it has done in previous seasons. But this isn’t the same Shockers team that we’ve become accustomed to, and even with a healthy Fred VanVleet, they lost their final two meetings with Northern Iowa. VanVleet and Ron Baker simply have had to do too much.

I love the balance and experience that Vanderbilt has, and I believe it to be the most dangerous double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. Wichita State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games, time and time again being overvalued.

Plays on any team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite are 63-27 (70%) ATS since 1997.

Vanderbilt is 46-27 ATS in its last 73 games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Commodores are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* Fairleigh/FGC 2016 NCAA Tournament Opener on Florida Gulf Coast -5.5

It’s been three years since Florida Gulf Coast (20-13) became the first No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. But now the high-flying Eagles are back. They won the Atlantic Sun Tournament after finishing second in the regular season standings behind North Florida.

Florida Gulf Coast is led by a trio of double-digits scorers. Leading the way is Marc Eddy Norelia, who averages 17.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while shooting 53.9 percent from the field. He is joined by Christian Terrell (12.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Zach Johnson (11.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) in double figures scoring.

Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14) played a very weak schedule, which ranked 298th in the country. It went 0-1 against the RPI top 100 out of conference. That was a blowout 54-91 loss at Villanova in their opening game of the season, but the Knights also lost to the likes of Army, Fordham, Delaware, Princeton, Temple and Rutgers out of conference.

Unfortunately for the Knights, they grade out as the worst defensive team in the entire 2016 field. They do force turnovers at an average of 15 per game, but they also give up 78.2 points per game on 45.2% shooting.

The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games since 1997. Florida Gulf Coast is 11-0 ATS in March road games since 1997. The Eagles are also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.

The Eagles are a very efficient offensive team that puts up 77.0 points per game on 47.7% shooting. They will have their way with a Fairleigh Dickinson team that gives up 78.2 points per game this season. Florida Gulf Coast can also defend, limiting opponents to 41.5% shooting on the season.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are a very profitable 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Florida Gulf Coast Tuesday.

15* Memphis/UConn AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

The UConn Huskies have played their way into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Cincinnati and Temple the last two days.  Now I look for the Huskies to take a breath, and to not play with the intensity they did the last two games with their tournament lives at stake.

Memphis is the team with its tournament life at stake.  The Tigers can only make the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday, and I look for them to fight, scratch and claw their way to a win and cover today as 5.5-point underdogs to the Huskies.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last.  It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight wins by 20-plus points.  The Tigers won by 30 at East Carolina, by 22 over Tulsa, and by 20 over Tulane.  They have had an easy go of it, while UConn played four overtimes against Cincinnati two days ago and will likely feel the effects of that today.

UConn is 2-10 ATS following three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 94-54 ATS in its last 148 games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) after 15-plus games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Memphis Sunday.

15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -3.5

The Kentucky Wildcats want revenge from a 77-79 loss at Texas A&M in their lone meeting this season.  I like their chances of getting it in blowout fashion today considering how well they are playing coming into this game.

Kentucky is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 9-point win at Florida as 4.5-point favorites, a 17-point home win over LSU as 13.5-point favorites, a 26-point win over Alabama as 13.5-point favorites, and a 13-point win over Georgia as 10.5-point favorites.

Kentucky is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite.  The Wildcats are 45-26 ATS in their last 71 games when revenging a road loss.  Kentucky is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 vs. SEC opponents.  The Aggies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Kentucky Sunday.

20* Conference Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas Little-Rock -4

Arkansas-Little Rock (28-4) has been the best team in the Sun Belt all season.  It has gone 18-3 in conference play this year, and now it is one win away from playing in the NCAA Tournament.  The Trojans aren't about to let this opportunity slip away by losing to LA-Monroe.

Little Rock is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four over the last two season.  Little Rock is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Trojans.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Sunday.

20* Virginia/UNC ACC Championship No-Brainer on North Carolina -1

I've successfully backed the North Carolina Tar Heels in each of their first two games of the conference tournament.  I'm going to continue riding them today against Virginia given the ease of which they've dismantled their first two opponents.

The Tar Heels opened with an 88-71 win as 7.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.  They were even more impressive yesterday, steamrolling Notre Dame 78-47 as 8-point favorites.  So they are going to be very fresh coming into this game against Virginia, which barely escaped with a 73-68 win over Miami yesterday.

The Tar Heels also want revenge on the Cavaliers after losing 74-79 at Virginia on February 27th toward the end of the regular season.  This time they will be playing on a neutral court, and they'll get their revenge with the way they are playing right now.

North Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +3.5

The UConn Huskies just played in a four overtime thriller yesterday.  It wasn't so thrilling for me as I had Cincinnati -1.  The Bearcats hit a 3-pointer to go up 3 with 0.8 seconds left, only for the Huskies to hit a miracle 60-footer and force a 4th overtime.  Of course, they went on to win the game after that.

But now the Huskies are going to be running on fumes today.  Their best players obviously played huge minutes yesterday.  Daniel Hamilton played 55, Sterling Gibbs played 54, Rodney Purvis played 49, Amida Brimah played 47, and Jalen Adams played 43.

Temple made easy work of South Florida in a 79-62 victory yesterday.  The Owls will be fresh and ready to go.  They will also be motivated to earn some respect, because they haven't been getting it all season.  They aren't getting it here, either, as 3.5-point underdogs to the Huskies when they should be favored.

Indeed, Temple won the American Athletic Conference regular season title with a 14-4 record.  The Owls beat UConn outright as underdogs twice en route to that title.  They won 63-58 as 5-point home dogs, and 55-53 as 10-point road dogs.  They are clearly the better team as they proven during the regular season, and now they are in a tremendous situation here given the Huskies going to 4 OT yesterday.

The Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Temple is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Owls are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.  Temple is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -1

The Old Dominion Monarchs have rolled through the Conference USA Tournament to make the Championship Game.  The ease of which they've won has me on them today as I look for their momentum to carry them to a C-USA title and a NCAA Tournament berth.

Old Dominion is playing its best basketball of the season, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  In the conference tournament alone, the Monarchs beat FAU by 26 as 10.5-point favorites, LA Tech by 16 as 3-point favorites, and Western Kentucky by 12 as 4-point favorites.  They aren't about to be denied now.

Middle Tennessee has to play in an exhausting 99-90 win over Marchall yesterday.  The Thundering Herd play at an extremely fast pace, and that up-and-down game will have taken its toll on the Blue Raiders here.  I also like the fact that Old Dominion will be out for revenge from a 3-point loss in the regular season, and a 7-point loss to Middle Tennessee in the conference tournament last season.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (OLD DOMINION) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on neutral court teams (OLD DOMINION) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on LSU +7

The LSU Tigers are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.  They took care of business in an 84-75 win over Tennessee yesterday in their SEC Tournament opener, and now I look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money today.

Texas A&M was fortunate to come away with a 72-66 victory over the Florida Gators yesterday.  I believe LSU is a better team than Florida, and that will show today as the Tigers keep this one close.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons as three of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, including a 76-71 win for LSU in their most recent showdown on February 13th.

The Aggies are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games.  Look for the Tigers to simply want this game more given what's at stake for them.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* CBB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -1.5

South Carolina wants revenge from losing both meetings to Georgia this season, including a 72-74 heartbreaker on March 3rd about exactly a week ago.  Given this spot for the Gamecocks, I like their chances of getting the job done.

They need a win to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  But they also come in rested having last played on March 5th, while Georgia played yesterday in a 79-69 victory over Mississippi State.  That edge in rest and preparation, plus the revenge factor, makes me love the Gamecocks today.

South Carolina is 6-0 ATS in road games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  South Carolina is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games overall.  Take South Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure -2.5

Despite a 22-7 record that has included a 10-1 mark in its last 11 games overall, St. Bonaventure still finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Bonnies want to leave no doubt with a win over Davidson today.

Given the situation, I like their chances of getting a win and cover.  The Bonnies haven't played since March 5th, while Davidson played yesterday in a 78-63 victory over lowly LaSalle.  That edge in rest and preparation is huge for the Bonnies here.

St. Bonaventure has won both meetings with Davidson over the last two seasons, including a 97-85 home victory as 1.5-point favorites this season.  The Bonnies are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7

The North Carolina Tar Heels are showing excellent value as only 7-point favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish today.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight.

UNC made easy work of Pitt 88-71 yesterday.  Now it faces a tired Notre Dame team that needed overtime to beat Duke 84-79 yesterday.  That puts the Fighting Irish at a big disadvantage here.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N CAROLINA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 98-51 (65.8%) ATS since 1997.  UNC has actually lost three straight to Notre Dame by a combined 13 points and wants revenge here.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kentucky -12

The Kentucky Wildcats will be playing their first SEC Tournament game today and will make easy work of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are playing their 2nd game in 2 days after a 91-83 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.

It's s that Kentucky owns Alabama.  The Wildcats are 5-0 in the last five meetings, and they have won by 25, 16, 15, 22 and 7 points in those five.  The last four have come by an average of 19.5 points per game.  Take Kentucky Friday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1.5

The St. Joe's Hawks need a win to assure their spot int he NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are undervalued right now due to losing their final two games of the regular season as well.

What I really like about this game is that St. Joe's comes in rested having last played on March 5th, while George Washington played yesterday in a 73-65 win over lowly Saint Louis and will be the more tired team.

St. Joe's won 84-66 as 4.5-point dogs at George Washington in their only meeting this season.  The Hawks are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus board per game this season.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -1

The Cincinnati Bearcats have proven they are a better team than UConn twice this season in beating the Huskies.  I expect them to prove it for a 3rd time in the AAC Tournament today to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it has a huge advantage inside against Connecticut.  The Bearcats held the Huskies to 37.3% shooting in a 65-60 home victory, and 38.3% shooting in a 58-57 road win this year.

The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4

The Texas A&M Aggies come in rested and ready to go today against Florida.  The Aggies last played on March 5th, while Florida beat Arkansas 68-61 yesterday and will be playing a second consecutive day.

The Gators will now have to deal with arguably the best team in the SEC in Texas A&M.  The Aggies are playing very well right now, too, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  They also beat Kentucky by 2 at home.

Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Texas A&M Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -4.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -7.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +1

I faded UNLV with success yesterday by cashing in Air Force +11.  It was really never in doubt, but I did have to sweat out three overtimes as UNLV won a wild 108-102 game.  Now, the Rebels aren't going to have much left in the tank today for Fresno State.

UNLV starters Jerome Seagers (54 minutes), Ike Nwamu (55) and Patrick McCaw (55) will be particularly gassed.  That trio combined for 78 points yesterday against Air Force.  But there's no question in my mind that all three will have off shooting nights after what they went through last night in beating the Falcons.

At the same time, Fresno State comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th.  The Bulldogs (22-9) also come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including road wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah State.  The Bulldogs have won each of their last two meetings with UNLV as well.

The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Thursday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss -2.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 20-11 on the season, including 10-8 in SEC play, yet they are getting no love from Joe Lunardi and the bracket prognosticators.  But I've been riding this team all season, and I'll continue to do so in the SEC Tournament as they continue playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Ole Miss closed the season by going 4-1 in its last five games overall, so it comes in playing very well.  It also owns a 74-66 home victory over Alabama as 5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Rebels have one of the best players in the country in Stefan Moody, who averages 23.1 points per game.  He will have his way with Alabama once again.

I really do not like the mindset of Alabama right now.  Three weeks ago, it was safely in the NCAA Tournament.  But four losses in five games later, and the Crimson Tide are well on the outside with no chance of making it.  The Tide lost at home to Mississippi State and Arkansas, and their only win came against awful Auburn 65-57.  They also lost by 25 at Kentucky and by 7 at Georgia.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Rebels continue flying under the radar as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  They won by 23 at Tennessee in the regular season finale.  Bet Ole Miss Thursday.