15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +12.5

Quietly, the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-9) have been playing some of the best basketball in the Big Ten over the past couple weeks.  Yet, the betting public and the oddsmakers continue to give them no respect as 12.5-point road underdogs to the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The lost by 6 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs, beat Rutgers by 28 as 7-point home favorites, beat Minnesota by 5 as 1.5-point home dogs, lost at Illinois by 2 as 6-point road dogs, lost at Maryland by 6 as 7.5-point road dogs, and beat Nebraska by 13 as 4-point home favorites during their six straight covers.

However, the Nittany Lions have really been competitive all season within the Big Ten.  While they are just 3-8 within the conference, seven of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  The only exception was a 17-point loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point underdogs in the Big Ten opener, and they even covered the spread in that game.

Ohio State comes into this game way overvalued due to having won four of its last five games overall, which includes double-digit wins over Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.  The Buckeyes beat Rutgers by 19 on Sunday, meaning they only have two days of rest in between games.  Penn State last played on Saturday, so it will have three days off coming in, and that one extra day is a big advantage on a short turnaround.

There is one key loss here for the Buckeyes that I don't believe is getting factored into the line at all.  Second-leading scorer Marc Loving (11.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) has been suspended for an undisclosed number of games.  Loving shoots 49.1% from the field and 53.2% from 3-point range, so his ability to space the floor for the Buckeyes has been absolutely huge.

With four starters back from last year's team that swept the season series with Ohio State, the Nittany Lions certainly have the confidence to pull off the upset again today.  They won 71-70 as 13-point road dogs, and then came back with a 65-63 home win as 5.5-point dogs in their two meetings with the Buckeyes last year.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (PENN ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games, with four starters returning from last season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season, only losing by an average of 2.3 points per game in this role.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -2

The Temple Owls (17-7) are a much different team today than the one that lost to Cincinnati 53-84 on the road on January 17th.  They have gotten fully healthy since, and they have been on an absolute tear as a result.

The Owls are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 25-point home win over South Florida, a 24-point road win at UCF, an 18-point home win over Tulane, a 13-point road win at South Florida, and a 1-point road win at Memphis.  Now, the Owls will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season to the Bearcats, and I fully expect them to get it at home tonight.

After all, Temple is 10-2 at home this year where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to arguably the top two teams in the AAC in Tulsa and Tulane by a combined 12 points.  Cincinnati is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  It has lost to UConn, Memphis and ECU on the road within AAC play.

The Bearcats are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC foes.  Take Temple Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +10

The LSU Tigers are exactly the type of team that has what it takes to upset the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats tonight.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 17-6 on the season.  I like their chances of giving the Wildcats a run for their money because of how they are built.

The Tigers actually have the two big men that can stand up to Kentucky's two big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who just dominate most teams.  They won't be dominating LSU's Jordan Mickey (17.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.6 bpg) and Jarell Martin (16.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg).

The Wildcats have been vulnerable at times this season.  They needed overtime to beat both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and they are coming off a 7-point win at Florida where they trailed the majority of the game but pulled away late.  Remember, LSU beat Florida 79-61 on the road on January 20th.

The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Their two home losses came by a combined 8 points.  The home team has won five straight in this series.  Four of the last five meetings between Kentucky and LSU have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less.

LSU is 53-28 ATS in its last 81 games off a home win over a conference opponent.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6

The Baylor Bears are easily one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They continue to get better and better with each game, and I look for them to blow the Oklahoma State Cowboys out of the building tonight at home.

The Bears have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall right in the heart of their Big 12 schedule.  Their lost four wins could not have been any more impressive.  They beat Oklahoma by 11 at home, Texas by 23 at home, TCU by 20 at home, and West Virginia by 18 on the road.  If that's not an impressive run, then I don't know what is.

Yes, their lone loss over their past five games came at Oklahoma State by a final of 53-64, but that will actually work in their favor here because they'll be out for revenge.  Meanwhile, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cowboys not only because they have already beaten the Bears, but also because they are coming off their biggest win of the season Saturday in a come-from-behind 67-62 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks.  It's only human nature for them to let up off such a big win.

Baylor is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game.  Its only home loss this year came to Kansas by a single point 55-56.  Oklahoma State is just 2-5 in true road games this season.  It has lost to South Carolina by 26, Kansas by 10, Oklahoma by 17 and Kansas State by 10 in four of its five road losses.

Baylor is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Oklahoma State since 2007.  It has won its last eight home meetings by 6, 10, 41, 19, 13, 6, 8, and 4 points.  As you can see, each of the last seven wins came by 6 points or more, and by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Baylor.  The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Bears are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Oklahoma State is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* Michigan/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  They have gone 16-7 on the season to put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done so behind one of the best offenses in the nation.

Indeed, the Hoosiers are putting up 80.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting this year, including 40.9% from 3-point range, which is a ridiculous percentage for a team.  Shooting the 3-ball is going to work to Indiana's advantage because their opponent plays zone defense.

Star freshman James Blackmon Jr. missed Indiana's last game against Wisconsin with an ankle injury.  He leads the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and is second in rebounding (5.2 rpg), so it was a big loss for them.  Blackmon Jr. is expected to return today.  I just do not believe the Michigan Wolverines have the firepower to keep up with the Hoosiers in this one.

Michigan is without two of its top three scorers in Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg) and Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg).  Zak Irvin (13.2 ppg) is the only healthy Wolverine left who is averaging more than 6.2 points per game.  That's bad news for Michigan today as they are going to have to put up points to hang with the high-powered Hoosiers.

Indiana has been virtually unbeatable at home this season.  It is 13-1 inside Assembly Hall where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game.  It is 4-0 at home within the Big Ten with wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers.

Michigan did pretty well for a stretch there without LeVert, but it is also without Walton Jr. now, and this team is going to continue to struggle because they don't have the talent to make up for it.  They lost by 10 at Michigan State and then by 18 at home to Iowa last time out.  I believe more losses like that one to the Hawkeyes are going to be the norm for them going forward.

The Hoosiers have a big advantage in rest and preparation heading into this one.  They have had four days off since losing at Wisconsin 78-92 on Tuesday.  They will also be motivated or a win after losing three of their last four with all three losses coming on the road.  The Wolverines have only had two days of rest in between games since losing to Iowa 54-72 on Thursday.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Hoosiers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Wolverines, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +15.5

At 16-6 on the season, including 12-1 at home, the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  At 7-16 on the season, including 1-9 on the road, the betting public wants nothing to do with the South Florida Bulls at this point in the season.  These perceptions have created a ton of line value for pouncing on the undervalued Bulls today.

This is an awful spot for Cincinnati.  It is coming off a huge upset road win at SMU on Thursday, winning 62-54 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Off such a big win, and with a big game at Temple on deck, the Bearcats are in a prime spot for a letdown here against lesser competition.  They won't be motivated at all to face South Florida.

Plus, the Bearcats are a tired, unprepared team for this game.  They played on Thursday, meaning that they have just one day of rest and preparation to get ready for the Bulls.  Meanwhile, South Florida last played on Wednesday, giving them two days to prepare for the Bearcats.  I know it's only one day extra, but on such a short turnaround, one day can be huge.

The Bulls have been pretty competitive this season, especially here of late, despite their poor record.  Each of their last four losses have come by 13 points or less as they've gone 3-1 ATS.  They lost at UConn by 13 as 14-point dogs, at home to SMU by 11 as 11.5-point dogs, at Tulsa by 7 as 14.5-point dogs, and at home against Temple by 13 as 7.5-point dogs in their last four games, respectively.  After playing that gauntlet of a schedule, they are certainly battle-tested and ready to face a team like Cincinnati tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less.  USF won 46-45 as 2-point home favorites in 2012, lost 53-61 (OT) as 12.5-point road dogs in 2013, lost 54-61 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013, and lost 45-50 as 15.5-point road dogs in 2014.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Florida is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last two years.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +13

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country this season.  Head coach Oliver Purnell finally has his players in place and an experienced bunch with four starters back from last year's team.

The Blue Deamons have gone a respectable 12-12 this season.  However, they have really stepped up their play in Big East action.  They are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in all Big East games this year.  They barely didn't cover in the two games they failed to do so, losing by 11 at Providence as 10-point dogs and by 13 to Villanova as 11.5-point dogs.

DePaul has beaten Marquette by 3 as 5-point home dogs, Xavier by 3 as 10.5-point home dogs, Creighton by 10 as 10-point road dogs, St. John's by 4 as 6-point home dogs, Seton Hall by 4 as 9.5-point road dogs, and Seton Hall by 13 as 3-point home dogs.  The Blue Demons have only lost one of their 11 Big East games by more than 13 points, which was a 17-point loss at Villanova as 21.5-point dogs.  That stat alone makes for a 10-1 system backing them pertaining to this 13-point spread.

Butler is a quality team at 17-6 on the season.  However, that record has been bolstered by several close wins this year.  In fact, eight of Butler's 10 Big East games have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Six of its last nine games have actually been decided by 4 points or less.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire as well.

Home-court advantage meant nothing between these teams last year.  The road team went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  DePaul won at Butler (99-94, OT) as 9-point underdogs.  Butler returned the favor with a 79-46 road win in the rematch with the line set at a pick 'em.

The Blue Demons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Blue Demons.  Take DePaul Saturday.

20* Baylor/WVU Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -4

The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-4) are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They aren't getting the respect they deserve as only 4-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  I'll take advantage and back them at this short price in what I fully expect to be a blowout in favor of the home team.

The Mountaineers come into this game highly motivated for a victory following an ugly 52-71 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday.  Bob Huggins was not pleased with his team as he emptied his bench and 11 different players saw double-digit minutes.  I look for the starters to get the memo and to respond to Huggins in a big way today.

West Virginia is 8-2 at home this season where it outscoring teams by an average of 16.8 points per game.  The Mountaineers have a huge home-court advantage within the Big 12 because it's such a far trip for the road teams within the conference.  It has beaten the likes of Oklahoma (by 21, Texas Tech (by 19) and VA Tech (by 31) at home this year.  Its two home losses have come by a combined 3 points.

Baylor is also an improved team this year, but one that has done most of its damage at home.  The Bears are 13-1 at home compared to 3-3 in true road games.  They have lost to Oklahoma (by 10), Kansas State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 11) on the road in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 on the road within the conference with their only win coming at lowly TCU (by 7).

Scott Drew is 9-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent as the coach of Baylor.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  WVU has also had an extra day to prepare for this game after last playing on Tuesday, while Baylor last played on Wednesday.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -6.5

The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country.  They currently sit at 18-4 and are riding an eight-game winning streak that has seen seven of those eight victories by 9 points or more.  Their last loss was a 50-56 setback at tonight's opponent, Cincinnati, so the Mustangs won't be lacking any motivation as they'll be out for revenge.

SMU is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.3 points per game.  It is 9-1 within the conference, outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game.  This may be the best team in the AAC as it's a toss-up between the Mustangs and Tulsa.

Cincinnati is a quality squad at 15-6 on the year.  However, it has done most of its damage at home, where it is 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road, where the Bearcats are 2-4 in true road games.  They have lost three of their last four.  They lost by 6 at UConn as 4.5-point dogs, by 13 at Memphis as a pick 'em, and by 4 at East Carolina as 10.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last two seasons.  The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  SMU beat Cincinnati 76-55 at home last year as 4-point favorites.

The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Cincinnati is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games.  The Mustangs are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Plays against road of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1997.  SMU is 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last two seasons.  Take SMU Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +11.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-11) have gotten better as the season has gone on under head coach Jason Capel.  He had the luxury of returning four starters from last year's team, and this experience is finally starting to pay off in recent weeks.

Appalachian State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  All four wins were very impressive.  It beat Georgia State by 5 as 11.5-point home underdogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, South Alabama by 11 as 4-point home favorites, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road underdogs.

The reason the Mountaineers are catching so many points here is because they are coming off an ugly 37-point loss at Georgia Southern last time out.  Well, Georgia Southern is 9-0 at home this season, and that was simply as bad as the Mountaineers could play.  I look for them to get back to the way they were playing during their four-game winning streak prior against lesser competition tonight in Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Rajin' Cajuns are just 12-10 this season and have taken a big step back from last year after losing their star player to the NBA. While they did get off to a solid 10-5 start this year, it has been all downhill ever since.  Lafayette is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes home losses to South Alabama by 7 as 13-point favorites and Louisiana-Monroe by 2 as 7-point favorites.

Yes, Louisiana-Lafayette did beat Appalachian State by 16 on the road in the first meeting this season back on January 5th.  Well, that was back when the Rajin' Cajuns were playing solid basketball, while the Mountaineers were looking to find their footing.  I expect Appalachian State to be out for revenge in this one.

The Mountaineers have actually played their best basketball on the road this year.  They are a respectable 5-8 in true road games. They beat Virginia Tech by 2 as 18-point road dogs, beat Jacksonville by 11, only lost to Georgia Tech by 13 as 17-point road dogs, lost to Charlotte by 10 as 15-point road dogs, and played Alabama to a 1-point game as 18-point road dogs.  They also beat Arkansas State by 1 as 8-point road dogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road dogs.  If that's not evidence that this team has played well on the road, then I don't know what is.

Appalachian State is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog over the last three years.  Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 109-61 (64.1%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern +4

The Georgia Southern Eagles are arguably the most underrated team in the entire country.  This was the case for this program in football this past season, and it has carried over to their basketball team as well.

The Eagles are 15-4 this season with their only four losses coming to Illinois by 9 as 22.5-point road dogs, UCF by 2 as 4-point road dogs, Texas-Arlington by 1 as 4-point road dogs, and Troy by 4 as 5.5-point road favorites.  The Eagles are a sensational 11-1-2 ATS in their 14 lined games this season, which just goes to show how undervalued they have really been.

You may have noticed that all four of their losses have come on the road.  Well, the Eagles are a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are absolutely dominating.  They have outscored their nine opponents at home by an average of 23.3 points per game this year.

Georgia State is a quality team at 15-7 on the season, but it has been overvalued for much of the season, going just 9-12 ATS.  It has done most of its damage at home, where it is 9-1.  The Panthers are just 4-6 in true road games this year. 

They lost to Iowa State by 23 as 10-point dogs, to Colorado State by 10 as 6-point dogs, to Old Dominion by 4 as 3-point dogs, to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 17 as 4.5-point dogs, to Lafayette by 4 as 2.5-point favorites, and to Appalachian State by 5 as 11.5-point favorites.  Three of their four road wins have come by 6 points or less.

 Home-court advantage has been massive in this series in recent years.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings dating back to 2009.  Georgia Southern has upset Georgia State in its last two home meetings.  It won 68-64 in 2012 as 2-point underdogs, and 74-72 in 2010 as 5-point dogs.

Georgia State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS when playing against  a team with a winning record this season.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Bet Georgia Southern Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +11.5

At 16-5 on the season, the LSU Tigers come into this game overvalued as 11.5-point home favorites over the Auburn Tigers (10-11).  I'll take advantage and back the road team as double-digit underdogs in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Auburn has been getting better as the season has gone on under first-year head coach, Bruce Pearl.  Yes, Auburn has lost four of its last five games coming in, but it has gone 3-2 ATS as all five games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 71-68 home win over South Carolina as 2.5-point dogs, a 55-57 road loss to Alabama as 11-point dogs, and a 63-71 road loss to Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs.

LSU is certainly improved this season, but with this improvement has come expectations from oddsmakers that I don't believe it can live up to tonight.  After all, seven of LSU's last eight games have been decided by 7 points or less, so it has consistently played in games that have gone right down to the wire, and I don't expect tonight to be any exception.

Not only has Auburn's last five games been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of LSU's last eight games been decided by 7 points or less, but this has been a closely-contested series as well.  Indeed, five of the last six meetings between LSU and Auburn have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The only exception was a 67-52 home win by Auburn in 2012.

Auburn is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with LSU, and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings.  Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight visits to LSU dating back to 2006.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* Ohio Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee State +15.5

The Tennessee State Tigers are just 5-18 on the season.  They have also gone 0-12 on the road.  While that may be concerning, the fact of the matter is that this team is way undervalued right now because of its record, and has been for a couple weeks now.

Indeed, Tennessee State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It lost at SIU Edwardsville by 7 as 13-point underdogs, at Austin Peay by 1 as 11-point dogs, at Murray State by 19 as 22.5-point dogs and at home to Belmont by 8 as 13-point dogs.  It is coming off back-to-back home wins over Tennessee Tech by 8 as 7-point dogs, and Jacksonville State by 2 as 4-point dogs.

At 10-14 this season, Morehead State has no business being this heavily favored over Tennessee State tonight.  The Eagles have only won one of their last eight games by more than 13 points.  They have really struggled at home here of late.  Indeed, they are just 1-6 SU in their last seven home games overall. 

They lost to East Tennessee State by 4 as 6-points favorites, by 2 to Oakland as 6.5-point favorites, by 23 to Northern Kentucky, by 9 to Murray State as 3-point dogs, by 3 to Eastern Illinois as 6-point favorites, and by 9 to Eastern Kentucky as 1-point favorites.  Simply put, the Eagles have no home-court advantage this year.

Home court has meant little in this series as the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings.  Tennessee State went into Morehead State and came away with a 70-68 victory as 12-point underdogs last year.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Tennessee State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Tigers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  The Eagles are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Morehead State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  Tennessee State is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Bet Tennessee State Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +4.5

The Air Force Falcons were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season due to the return of four starters from last year.  After a respectable 6-3 start, it has been all downhill for the Falcons as they currently sit at 9-12.

Well, the good news about their recent poor play is that it has created some excellent line value to back them tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the New Mexico Lobos.  The Falcons are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, but there's a good explanation for their recent poor play.

The Falcons have been without leading scorer Max Yon (15.3 PPG, 50.6% shooting) for each of their last six games due to personal reasons.  He is the only player on the Falcons averaging double-digits scoring, so it's no surprise that they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS without him.

Well, Yon is expected to return tonight, and he makes all the difference in the world for this team.  The first time they played New Mexico this season, they lost 48-60 in their first game without Yon on January 14th.  Having Yon back and playing at home this time around, I look for the Falcons to likely pull off the upset over the Lobos, but we'll take the 4.5 points for added insurance.

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball as its is 9-2 at home.  However, it has been a different story on the road.  The Lobos are just 5-5 in all road games this year.  Their last three road wins have come by a combined 10 points over New Mexico State, Utah State and UNLV, or by an average of 3.3 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Air Force and New Mexico dating back to 2012.  Look for this trend to extend to 7-0 after tonight.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -6

The Texas Longhorns are in major need of a victory tonight.  I look for them to come out highly motivated and to put away the Oklahoma State Cowboys by 7-plus points to cover this generous 6-point spread Wednesday.

Texas has lost three straight coming in, and at 14-7 on the season, it is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament without a big finish to the season.  Its last three losses have come at home to Kansas, and on the road to Iowa State and Baylor, so the schedule has as much to do with its recent struggles as anything.

The Longhorns return home tonight where they are 9-3 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  They take on an Oklahoma State team with an identical 14-7 record, but one that has done most of its damage at home, where it is 10-2.  It has been a much different story on the road for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Oklahoma State is 1-5 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.  It has lost its last three road games in blowout fashion, all by double-digits.  It lost at Kansas by 10 as 7-point dogs, at Oklahoma by 17 as 6.5 points dogs, and at Kansas State by 10 as 2.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Texas and Oklahoma State.  In fact, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings with all seven victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to Texas.  This will be a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well to add to the motivation after losing by 11 at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 6 points or less.  The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have underachieved this season.  They returned all but one key player from last year's 27-win team.  Many expected them to run away with the MAC, but after a 13-8 start, that's not going to happen.  However, this slow start has created some nice value to back the Rockets going forward, especially tonight.

The Rockets are certainly better than their 13-8 record would indicate.  Unfortunately, they have come out on the short end of the stick in too many close games.  Seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less with the only exception being a 17-point loss at Duke as 20-point underdogs.  Five of their eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer.

Toledo has started to show signs of what it is capable of here recently.  It has won three straight, including an 80-69 road win at Northern Illinois last time out.  I look for this solid play to continue tonight against Eastern Michigan.

The Eagles are off to a solid 14-7 start this season, but they have done most of their damage at home, where they are 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road.  The Eagles are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 6.4 points per game.  Toledo is 8-3 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  In fact, the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Five of those six victories came by 8 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Eastern Michigan, winning by 15, 11, 11, 8 and 25 points.

Eastern Michigan is 0-8 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 25-50 ATS in their last 75 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  EMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Toledo.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Toledo Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Michigan -4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They still are getting no respect from the books as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.

With five returning starters to work with, head coach Keno Davis has led the Chippewas to a 15-4 record this season.  What really stands out is how dominant they have been at home.  They are 12-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in home lines games this seaosn, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 24.1 points per game.

Bowling Green is a solid team at 13-6 SU and 12-3 ATS on the season.  The Falcons have been undervalued up until this point, but they are getting too much love from the books as only 4.5-point road dogs here.  After all, the Falcons are just 4-4 straight up on the road this season, which includes a 10-point loss to Western Kentucky and a 17-point loss to Akron.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the only exception being a 54-53 win by Central Michigan as 11.5-point road underdogs in 2012.  Otherwise, the home team has won the other four meetings by 5 points or more.  The Chippewas are 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Falcons.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +11

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Illinois Fighting Illini tonight.  The Scarlet Knights come into this game undervalued due to having lost six straight.  However, four of those losses came by single-digits, so they have at least been competitive.

The Fighting Illini are a solid team at 14-8.  Unfortunately, they have been dealing with a ton of injuries and are now down three starters from last year.  They had five coming into this year, but now they are down to two with leading scorer Rayvonte Rice out, along with Tracy Abrams and Aaron Cosby.

Illinois has really struggled in Big Ten play.  It is just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in conference action this season, which has pretty much coincided with all of the injuries.  In fact, all four of its wins came by single-digits, so it has yet to beat a Big Ten team by 10 points or more.

Rutgers has shown me a lot against some really good teams this year.  It beat Wisconsin 67-62 as 15-point home dogs, only lost at Maryland by 8 as 14-point dogs, only lost at Minnesota by 9 as 12.5-point dogs, and only lost at Indiana by 8 as 12-point dogs.  Those four performances alone make me know that the Scarlet Knights can hang in this one.

Illinois is 0-8 ATS in Tuesday night games over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 4-13 ATS in home games after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last three years.  Illinois is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's +6

The St. John's Red Storm (14-7) will be out for revenge on the Butler Bulldogs (16-6) Tuesday night.  They already lost a heartbreaker to the Bulldogs by a final of 69-73 as 3.5-point favorites on January 3rd in their first meeting.  As 6-point underdogs in a revenge role here, the Red Storm are showing great value.

St. John's returned four starters from last year's team, and it currently is on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament and needing a signature win.  That's especially the case after opening 3-6 in Big East play, but four of those losses have come by single-digits, including three by 4 points or fewer.  The Red Storm are coming off a very complete performance in a 75-66 win over Providence last time out.

Butler comes into this game overavlued due to having gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Bulldogs have a knack for playing in close games as well.  While they are 6-3 in Big East play, four of their six wins have come by 4 points or fewer. In fact, six of their last eight games have been decided by 4 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.

Last year, the Red Storm swept the season series with the Bulldogs in blowout fashion.  They won 69-52 on the road and 77-52 at home.  The Red Storm are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win.  St. John's is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with St. John's Tuesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The No. 14 Northern Iowa Panthers come into this game way overvalued due to their 20-2 record on the season.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Panthers, who moved into a first-place tied with Wichita State in the MVC after a huge win over the weekend.

The Panthers put an end to the Shockers' 30-game conference winning streak with a 70-54 home victory on Saturday.  It's only human nature of them to suffer a letdown following such a big victory.  I look for them to stumble tonight and to likely lose this game outright.

Despite being just 11-11 on the season, Indiana State has really stepped up its game in conference play.  It is 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS against MVC opponents this season.  Two of its three losses have come by 6 points or fewer, so only once in 10 conference games has it lost by more than 6 points.

One of those losses was a 60-66 loss at Northern Iowa as 14-point underdogs on January 21st.  If the Sycamores can stay within 6 points of the Panthers on the road, they certainly can do so at home.  They will be out for revenge in this game to add to their motivation.  Plus, the Sycamores are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers.  Both of their losses came by 6 points or less.  They have only lost by more than 6 points once in their last nine meetings with Northern Iowa.

Plays against a road team (N IOWA) - excellent defensive team (less than 40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after two straight games making 50% of their shots or better are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Northern Iowa is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Indiana State Tuesday.

15* Indiana/Wisconsin ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +15

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game overvalued due to their Top 10 ranking and 19-2 record.  They are coming off two big road wins over Michigan (in OT) and Iowa (by 11), and the betting public has been all over them and continues to be tonight.

At 16-6, the Indiana Hoosiers still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the country, and they can score with anyone.  The Hoosiers are 6-3 in Big Ten play, and they are scoring 80.3 points per game while shooting 47.8% from the field on the season.

The Hoosiers have played the Badgers very tough throughout the years.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less.  Sure, the Badgers have won seven of those eight games, but they just haven't been able to blow out the Hoosiers.  I don't look for that to start tonight.

Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 3-11 ATS in home games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite over the last two years.  The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS In their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Badgers are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

The No. 9 Kansas Jayhawks host the No. 15 Iowa State Cyclones on Monday in one of the biggest games of the Big 12 this season.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Iowa State already handed Kansas its only Big 12 loss this season, and it has its sights set on winning the conference.  A win over the Jayhawks today would go a long way in helping the Cyclones accomplish that feat.  They beat the Jayhawks 86-81 at home on January 17th despite going just 15-of-26 (57.7%) from the free throw line.

Yes, Kansas has won nine straight at home over Iowa State, but the Cyclones easily could have won a couple recent meetings at Allen Fieldhouse.  They have lost three of their last four trips to Kansas by 11 points or less, including one in overtime where the Jayhawks banked in a 3 at the buzzer to force the extra session. 

The Jayhawks are more vulnerable than they have been in a while, and this is arguably the best Iowa State team in program history.  All four of Iowa State's losses this year have come by single-digits with a 9-point loss to Maryland, a 4-point loss to South Carolina, a 1-point loss to Baylor, and a 5-point loss to Texas Tech.

Kansas has ugly losses to Kentucky by 32 and to Temple by 25.  It also has some narrow victories in Big 12 play with a 1-point win over Baylor, a 7-point win over Oklahoma and a 3-point win over TCU.  I just don't believe this Kansas team has what it takes to blow out Iowa State, not even at home.

The Cyclones are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Bill Self is 26-40 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game as the coach of Kansas.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +10

The East Carolina Pirates are just 8-12 this season, while the Cincinnati Bearcats are 15-5.  However, I believe because of these records, the Pirates are showing excellent value as 10-point home underdogs to the Bearcats Sunday afternoon.

East Carolina has lost six of its last seven games overall coming in.  It has played a brutal schedule with road losses to South Florida, Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis.  Following a 21-point loss at Cincinnati in early January, you can bet the Pirates will be out for revenge at home this time around.

Without question, East Carolina has been a much better home team than a road team this year.  It is a very solid 7-3 at home while going a superb 4-1 ATS in home lined games.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.6 points per game at home as well.  All three of its home losses have come by 8 points or less, including a 64-66 loss to a very good Tulsa team as 9.5-point underdogs a week ago.

Cincinnati comes into this game overvalued due to having won four straight and eight of its last 10 games overall.  Well, this team has been vulnerable on the road this season, going just 2-3 in true road games.  Off a big home win over Connecticut on Thursday, and with an even bigger game with SMU on deck, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  That's especially the case considering they have already beaten the Pirates handily once this season.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 32-56 ATS in its last 88 games after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games coming in.  The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-32 ATS in its last 40 Sunday games.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  ECU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Memphis/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +18

With a No. 3 national ranking and a 21-1 record, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are certainly one of the biggest public teams in the country.  They have a reputation from year's past as well that just has the betting public backing them every chance they get.  That means they have expectations to live up to, and sometimes those expectations are out of reach in terms of the point spread.

That has shown up here in recent games for the Bulldogs as they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Santa Clara by 22 as 24.5-point favorites, Pepperdine by 2 as 12-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 17 as 19.5-point favorites, and Portland by 18 as 21-point favorites in their four most recent non-covers.

Memphis (13-7) has the athleticism to match Gonzaga in this one.  The Tigers come in playing their best basketball of the season having won five of their last six.  They have also won 10 of their last 13 games overall.  Four of their last five victories have come by double-digits with impressive wins over Cincinnati (by 13), UCF (by 20), Houston (by 18) and East Carolina (by 12).

Memphis is 6-1 straight up in its last seven meetings with Gonzaga dating back to 2005.  These teams met up last year with Memphis winning 60-54 as 4.5-point home favorites.  Now, they are 18-point road underdogs a year later?  There's clearly some value here folks based on that fact alone.  Also, keep in mind that Gonzaga is playing on one days' rest after beating Portland on Thursday, while Memphis comes in on two days' rest after playing on Wednesday.

Memphis is 7-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 28-9 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting after 15-plus games since 1997.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS loss.  Take Memphis Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +19

As the No. 1 team in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats are forced to lay big numbers often.  The betting public is all over this unbeaten team, and the Wildcats have now created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to.

They have gone just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a 3-point win over Ole Miss as 23-point favorites, a 6-point win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, an 8-point win over Vanderbilt as 21.5-point favorites, and a 16-point win over Missouri as 17.5-point favorites.

Alabama (13-7), on the other hand, comes into this game undervalued due to having lost four of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those five games were remarkably decided by exactly 2 points, and the Crimson Tide came out on the short end of the stick in three of those.

I have no doubt that Alabama is one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and one that is fully capable of hanging with Kentucky today.  The Crimson Tide have seen six of their seven losses come by 13 points or less, including four of those by 2 points or fewer.

The lone exception was a 48-70 home loss to Kentucky as 9.5-point underdogs.  While that loss was concerning, the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge here.  I don't expect the Wildcats to be all that motivated for this game after already beating Alabama by 22 in their first meeting.  The Wildcats won't bring the kind of effort and focus it takes to put away the Crimson Tide by 19-plus points in the rematch.

Alabama is 7-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a home loss.  Alabama is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games as an underdog of 12.5 or more points.  The Crimson Tide are 13-2 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  Also, Alabama comes into this game on three days' rest, while Kentucky comes in on just one day of rest after playing Missouri on Thursday.

That 22-point loss was the exception, not the rule in this series.  Alabama is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kentucky.  In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings in this series have been decided by 17 points or less.  In fact, 20 of those 23 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer.  This makes for a 22-1 system backing the Crimson Tide pertaining to this 19-point spread today.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5

The No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (17-3) are going to be out for revenge against the No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels (17-4) today.  They lost a heartbreaker to the Tar Heels 71-72 on the road in their first meeting of 2014-15 on January 15th.  Look for them to have their revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

Louisville is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to two of the best teams in the country in Kentucky and Duke.

Outside of a road loss to Kentucky by 14 points, the Tar Heels have played an extremely soft road schedule this season.  Their other four true road games came against UNC-Greensboro, Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest.  This will easily be their second-toughest road game of the season, and I look for them to struggle like they did against the Wildcats.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (winning at least 80%) are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997.  North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Rick Pitino is 37-19 ATS revenging a road loss as the coach of Louisville.  The Tar Heels are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC foes.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last two seasons.  North Carolina is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last two years.  UNC is 1-8 ATS after a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Cardinals.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +2.5

I look at Wichita State (19-2) and Northern Iowa (19-2) as pretty much equals.  I also believe the Panthers have a real shot of winning the Missouri Valley this year, but they cannot afford to lose to the Shockers at home if they want to do so.  Wichita State has a great reputation due to its Final Four run, but that's the only reason it is favored here when it shouldn't be.

Northern Iowa is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game.  Its only two losses this season came on the road to VCU (87-93, OT) and Evansville (49-52).  This is an experienced team that returned all five starters from last year, and one that will want revenge after losing both meetings with the Shockers last season.

Wichita State has been vulnerable this season.  It has losses to both Utah and George Washington, and it also has narrow victories over Hawaii (80-79) and Alabama (53-52).  Six of its wins have come by single-digits this season.  The Shockers just aren't as dominant as they were a year ago, and they will prove to be beatable against their top contenders today.

Plays against any team (WICHITA ST) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 71-38 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Shockers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -3

The South Carolina Gamecocks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-7 ATS in the process.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are showing such great value as only 3-point home favorites over Georgia.

A closer look at this rough patch shows that the Gamecocks have suffered several narrow defeats.  Indeed, four of their six losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, while the other two came to Kentucky at home and Ole Miss on the road.  They have simply been on the short end of the stick in close games, but I look for that to change today.

Georgia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of its wins have come at home during this stretch, while the other two were narrow road victories over SEC bottom feeders Vanderbilt (70-67) and Mississippi State (72-66).

The Bulldogs are going to be short-handed today as they are expected to be without their leading scorer (13.5 ppg) and rebounder (7.3 rpg), Marcus Thornton.  This guy is a beast inside and shoots 50.5% from the field.  Thornton has played every game up to this point, but now he'll miss his first game of the season due to a concussion.  That's a huge loss for the Bulldogs, and one that I don't believe they'll be able to overcome.

Plays on a favorite (S CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 76-37 (67.3%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show there is value in backing teams on poor ATS streaks against teams on great ATS streaks.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Dakota State -6

The North Dakota State Bison have made some noise in the NCAA Tournament in recent years.  This is one of those under-the-radar teams that regularly finds itself in the Big Dance because it takes care of business in conference play and in the conference tournament.

The Bison have taken a bit of a step back this year, but they are still 13-7 and played a pretty difficult non-conference schedule, opening with Texas and Iowa on the road.  That has prepared them well for conference play, where they have gone 5-2 with impressive wins over top contenders Oral Roberts and South Dakota State.

What really stood out to me looking into this game was the home/road records of both teams.  North Dakota State is a perfect 9-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Denver is 1-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in road games, getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.

The Pioneers have had one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball through the years, but they have been atrocious on the road, and that has continued this season.  Now, they may be without second-leading scorer Cam Griffin (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who has missed the past two games due to suspension.  Even if Griffin plays I look for NDSU to cover, but it would be an added bonus if he doesn't.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent years.  The home team has gone a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings.  North Dakota State has won each of its last four home meetings with Denver by 10 or more points.  I can't stress enough how big home-court advantage for both of these teams.

Denver is 0-6 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  Joe Scott is 26-45 ATS as a road underdog or pick 'em as the coach of Denver.  Scott is 1-13 ATS after a game where they were called for 27 or more fouls as the coach of Denver.  The Pioneers are 12-39-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with North Dakota State Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

In a game between in-state rivals Mississippi State and Ole Miss tonight, I'll gladly side with the underdog in this contest.  The Bulldogs are showing solid value as 13.5-point road dogs to the Rebels, especially with the way they have been playing of late.

While Mississippi State is just 9-10 this season, it is playing much better than its record would indicate.  The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas A&M 70-74 as 10-point road dogs, beat Vanderbilt 57-54 as 4-point home dogs, beat Auburn 78-71 as 7-point road dogs, and lost to Georgia 66-72 as 5-point home dogs in their last four games, respectively.

Ole Miss is in a massive letdown spot here.  The Rebels are coming off a 72-71 home win over Florida last time out for a rare win over the Gators.  They have actually exchanged wins and losses in each of their last nine games overall.  They are 0-4 straight up in their last four games following a win.

Mississippi State is an experienced team that brought five starters back from last season.  It lost its final two meetings of the season to Ole Miss, including in the SEC Tournament.  These players will be out for revenge from those two losses as they have not forgotten.

Ole Miss is 3-11 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Mississippi State is 51-31 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games since 1997.  While the Bulldogs are just 2-6 away from home this season, they're actually only getting outscored by an average of 2.9 points per game on the road.  Bet Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +17

The Texas Tech Red Raiders could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They opened 0-6 in Big 12 play and were rarely competitive.  However, they finally showed what they were capable of last time out against one of the best teams in the country.

Indeed, the Red Raiders beat Iowa State 78-73 as 10-point home underdogs on Saturday.  They controlled that game from start to finish as it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Despite that win, they are still getting no love from the betting public or the oddsmakers as they are 17-point road underdogs tonight at Oklahoma.

The Sooners have really been struggling in Big 12 play.  They are just 3-4 within the conference, losing four of their last five games overall.  That includes blowout losses to West Virginia (65-86) and Baylor (58-69).  While they will be motivated to bounce back, the fact of the matter is that they are simply laying too many points tonight.

The road team has actually won three straight meetings in this series, including a 68-60 upset win by Texas Tech as 8.5-point underdogs last season.  In fact, Texas Tech has not lost by more than 15 points to Oklahoma in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series, making for a 10-1 system backing the Red Raiders.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Despite being just 10-9 on the season, they continually don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That is evident by their 12-7 ATS record this season, and they are undervalued again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over Seton Hall.

The Seton Hall Pirates got off to a great start this season, but then they jumped into the Top 25, and reality has sank in ever since. The Pirates are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at Xavier 58-69, at home against Butler 75-79, at home against DePaul 60-64, and at Butler 57-77.  Their lone win came against Creighton (68-67), but Creighton is in last place in the Big East and still doesn't have a conference win.

Marquette has lost three in a row as well, but it has at least been competitive.  It only lost 58-62 at Xavier as 9.5-point dogs, 57-60 at St. John's as 6.5-point dogs, and 85-95 (OT) at home against Georgetown as 1.5-point dogs.  This team has just been on the wrong end of several close losses this season as each of their last five losses have either come by 6 points or less or in overtime.

Marquette is 8-3 at home this season.  It only home losses came against Georgetown (in OT), Wisconsin and Nebraska-Omaha.  Obviously, that early-season loss to Nebraska-Omaha was not pretty, but this has been a completely different team ever since.  I just really like the fight I've seen from this squad, and they are sure to bring it tonight against Seton Hall.

The Eagles are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings with the Pirates with four of those victories coming by 7 points or more.  Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  The Eagles are 8-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this year.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These four trends combine for a 28-2 system backing the Eagles.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Fordham +9

The Fordham Rams host on the Rhode Island Rams tonight in Atlantic 10 action.  The home squad is showing excellent value in this contest as 9-point home underdogs to Rhode Island, and we'll take advantage.

Fordham has played a gauntlet of a schedule of late, which is why it has lost six straight coming in.  It has been at least a 9-point underdog in its six straight losses to VCU, Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Josephs, LaSalle and George Washington.

The best game Fordham played during that stretch actually came in a 65-68 road loss at Rhode Island as 15-point underdogs.  After playing Rhode Island tough on the road, I look for Fordham to also play them tough at home this time around as they will be out for revenge.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Rhode Island and Fordham.  Indeed, the home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings dating back to 2012.  Fordham has won each of its last three home meetings with Rhode Island, pulling off two upsets as underdogs in the process.

Fordham will have a decisive edge in rest and preparation as well.  It has has five days off in between games, while Rhode Island has only had two days off in between games.  After playing such a gauntlet of a schedule, this extra rest came at the perfect time for Fordham.  Look for it to play one of its best games of the season tonight.

Rhode Island has a key injury in play here.  Star guard E.C. Matthews, who leads the team in scoring (17.0 ppg), missed their last game against St. Bonaventure on Sunday with a knee injury.  Matthews is questionable to return tonight.  I like Fordham either way, and it would just be an added bonus if Matthews is unable to go.

Rhode Island is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  Rhode Island is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Fordham is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Fordham Wednesday.

15* Colorado State/Boise State ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Boise State -1.5

The Boise State Broncos are a team that continually gets overlooked in the Mountain West Conference.  They have gone 14-6 this season and have proven to be fully capable of beating any team in the league.  I look for them to knock off one of the better teams in the MWC in Colorado State tonight.

Boise State's six losses this season have all come against quality competition in Wisconsin, NC State, Colorado State, Utah State, Wyoming and Loyola-Illinois, and five of those losses have come on the road.  Four of them came by 6 points or less as well.

After playing a tough early schedule, the Broncos were battle-tested, and they have been playing their best basketball of the season here of late as a result.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories over UNLV (82-73) as 5.5-point home favorites, New Mexico (69-59) as 5-point road dogs, San Jose State (86-36) as 21-point home favorites, and Air Force (77-68) as 6-point road favorites.

Colorado State has exceeded expectations by going 18-2 this season.  However, it played a very weak non-conference schedule, and it has just had a way of winning every close game.  Eight of its last 13 victories have come by 6 points or less, including road wins over Colorado (62-60), Denver (85-84), New Mexico State (58-57) and Air Force (92-87).

So, the Rams are 5-1 in true road games this season, but four of those victories have come by 5 points or less, and the lone blowout was against MWC bottom feeder San Jose State.  Boise State is 7-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.3 points per game.  Its lone home loss came by a single point to Utah State (62-63).

The Broncos already proved they could play with the Rams this season when they only lost 65-71 as 7.5-point road underdogs on December 31st in the MWC opener.  The Broncos will clearly be out for revenge, and should get it at home this time around.  This is also a letdown spot for Colorado State, which just beat MWC favorite San Diego State 79-73 at home on Saturday.  I just don't foresee the Rams being able to match the intensity of the Broncos given the spot.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Colorado State is 2-13 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after committing 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Colorado State is 8-23-1 ATS in its last 32 games following a win.  The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Boise State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Georgetown -4.5

The Georgetown Hoyas are back.  They are one of the best teams in the Big East at 14-5 this season and 6-2 within the conference.  They come in playing some of their best basketball of the year as well.

The Hoyas have won four straight coming in.  That includes a 78-58 home victory over highly-ranked Villanova, handing the Wildcats their worst loss of the year.  They were in a clear letdown spot on Saturday following that win, but managed to gut out a 95-85 (OT) win at Marquette.  The Hoyas have shot 50% or better in three of their last four games.

Xavier (13-7) continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight despite going 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes blowout road losses to Butler (76-88) and Villanova (75-88).  Its only wins during this stretch came at home against Marquette (62-58) as 9.5-point favorites, and DePaul (89-76) as 14-point favorites.

Georgetown is 10-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.7 points per game.  Xavier is just 1-5 in true road games this year.  Its lone road win came at SEC bottom feeder Missouri.  It has also lost to the likes of Auburn, DePaul and Providence on the road this season.

Yes, Xavier handed Georgetown its worst loss of the season in a 70-53 home victory for the Musketeers in the Big East opener on December 31st.  However, I believe that result will work in our favor here.  The Hoyas will be highly motivated for revenge, and they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with blowout wins by 17, 22 and 13 points dating back to last year.  After losing at Xavier by 13 points in their first meeting of 2013-14, the Hoyas got revenge in a 22-point blowout at home in their second meeting.  I look for a repeat of last year.

The Hoyas are 10-2 ATS revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons.  Georgetown is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS after two straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.  The Musketeers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Xavier is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These last three trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the Hoyas.  Take Georgetown Tuesday.

20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off an embarrassing 78-73 road loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who were previously winless in Big 12 play.  It's safe to say that the Cyclones won't be lacking any motivation as they return home Monday to take on the Texas Longhorns.

Iowa State has been plagued by slow starts, averaging 33.7 points in the first of of the past six games compared to 42.3 in the last 20 minutes.  They scored 48 over the final 20 minutes in their loss to the Red Raiders, but were down 19 after the first 20 minutes and simply couldn't overcome it.  Look for them to get off to a fast start tonight and never let up.

"We've somehow got to find a way to get off to a (good) start and at least give ourselves a chance," head coach Fred Hoiberg said. "It's unacceptable. I wish I could tell you why exactly it happened. We'll figure it out."

The ninth-ranked Cyclones will be going for their 18th consecutive home victory.  They have scored an average of 82.6 points per game on 49.9% shooting while winning each of their last 17 at Hilton Coliseum.  They have also taken their last five home games against ranked opponents.

One of those victories came last season at home against Texas in an 85-76 victory.  Iowa State has won three the past three meetings in Ames by 9, 20 and 6 points.  The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series, so clearly home-court advantage has been huge.

Texas is just about as inconsistent as they come.  The Longhorns are just 3-3 in Big 12 play with ugly home losses to Oklahoma (49-70) and Kansas (62-75), as well as a double-digit road loss to Oklahoma State (58-69).  PG Isaiah Taylor is their best player, but he's going to be up against one of the top defenders in the country in Monte Morris tonight, who will shut him down.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons, winning by an average of 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Ames.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* Syracuse/North Carolina ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Syracuse +10.5

The Syracuse Orange (14-6) clearly aren't as good as they have been in year's past.  However, they are plenty good enough to stay within 10 points of the North Carolina Tar Heels (16-4) tonight.

The Orange have failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven coming in.  When teams go on poor ATS runs like this, there's a good chance they will be showing value in their next game, and I certainly believe that's the case tonight.

North Carolina has won five straight and 10 of its last 11 coming in.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Tar Heels, who have always been a public team.  Well, four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less, so it's not like they are blowing out the opposition with regularity like this spread would suggest.

I really like this matchup for Syracuse.  The Orange run Jim Boeheim's patented zone defense that forces opponents to make the 3-pointer with consistency to beat them.  They only allow 29.2% shooting from 3-point range this season, and 37.8% overall.  Well, the Tar Heels are not a good 3-point shooting team.  They only make 31.8% of their attempts from distance, including 28.4% at home.

Syracuse has won each of its last four meetings with North Carolina.  That includes a 57-45 home victory last January in which both teams combined to shoot 36.9% from the field and 6 of 31 from 3-point range.  The Tar Heels only went 2-of-12 (16.7%) from distance in the loss.  I look for another ugly, low-scoring game in this one, which clearly favors the double-digit underdog Orange.

North Carolina is 0-6 ATS after having won 12 o more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons.  Syracuse is 9-2 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Syracuse Monday.

15* Missouri Valley Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake +25

The No. 14 Wichita State Shockers are certainly one of the better teams in the country and the favorites to win the Missouri Valley Conference this season.  However, with their 17-2 record comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Shockers simply cannot live up to from time to time.

The Drake Bulldogs are 4-15 and one of the worst teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulldogs because of their record, which combined with their love for Wichita State, has created some excellent line value for us to back Drake Sunday as 25-point underdogs.

Wichita State will be lacking the kind of motivation it takes to put away a team like Drake by 26-plus points today.  Even if the Shockers get out to a big lead early, I look for them to take their foot off the gas.  Meanwhile, this is Drake's Super Bowl pretty much as it will be highly motivated to face the Shockers.

The Bulldogs have been playing their best basketball of the season here of late.  They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost 47-50 at Loyola-IL as 12-point underdogs, beat Indiana State 84-78 as 3-point home underdogs, and lost to Illinois State 56-64 as 9-point home underdogs.  Those are three of the best teams in the MVC, and the Bulldogs hung right with them.

Perhaps even more promising is the fact that Drake actually gave Wichita State a run for its money the first time these teams squared off this season back on December 31st.  The Shockers only beat the Bulldogs 66-58 as 17-point road favorites.  Wichita State could be lacking motivation since it already beat Drake as well, while Drake will come in with some confidence and wanting revenge after already playing the Shockers tough once.

Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points (DRAKE) - good ball handling team (less than 14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (less than 14.5 TO's) after 15+ games are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1997.  Wichita State is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games after allowing 65 points or less in four straight games coming in.  Roll with Drake Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are easily one of the top five teams in the country this season.  They are impossible to beat when they are on from 3-point range.  They may be the toughest matchup in all of college basketball outside of perhaps Kentucky.

The Badgers are off to a 17-2 start this season with their only two losses coming to Duke and Rutgers.  Obviously that was a poor 62-67 loss at Rutgers a few weeks ago, but keep in mind that the Badgers were down two starters in that game.

Aside from those two contests, it has pretty much been all domination for the Badgers.  Indeed, 15 of their 17 wins have come by double-digits.  That includes victories over the likes of Green Bay (84-60), Oklahoma (69-56), Marquette (49-38), California (68-56), Penn State (89-72), Northwestern (81-58), Nebraska (70-55) and Iowa (82-50).

Michigan got off to a terrible start this season at 6-5 with losses to the likes of New Jersey Tech (70-72) as 24-point home favorites and Eastern Michigan (42-45) as 14.5-point home favorites.  It has turned it around in Big Ten play, winning five of its seven league games.  

However, all five victories came by single-digits, and the five wins came against five of the worst teams in the league in Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  It lost badly to the two best teams it has played in Purdue (51-62) and Ohio State (52-71).

Now, Michigan just recently lost its best player in Caris LeVert to a season-ending foot injury.  LeVert leads the team in minutes (35.8), points (14.9), rebounds (4.9), assists (3.7) and steals (1.8) per game.  The Wolverines were able to sneak by Rutgers (54-50) in their first game without him on Tuesday, but they aren't about to hang with Wisconsin without him.

The Badgers are 7-1 on the road this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game.  The Wolveriners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Wisconsin is 9-2 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  

The Badgers are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS off a blowout win by 30 or more points over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Badgers.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores (11-7) are one of the sleepers in the SEC this season.  They constantly get overlooked despite playing some very solid basketball this season.  However, they get no respect from the books today as only 1.5-point favorites over LSU.

The reason is pretty simple.  Oddsmakers know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Vanderbilt off four straight losses coming into this game, while the betting public is all over LSU after beating Florida on the road last time out, and with its 14-4 record.

Well, a closer look at Vanderbilt's four losses shows that they weren't bad at all.  Three of the four came on the road to Arkansas (70-82), Mississippi State (54-57) and Kentucky (57-65), while the other came at home to Georgia (67-70).

As you can see, three of the four losses came by single-digits.  It is extremely difficult to win at Arkansas, and the Commodores gave Kentucky all they could handle in an 8-point road loss as 21.5-point dogs.  That effort against the No. 1 team in the country gives this young team the confidence to know that they can play with anyone.

This is a massive letdown spot for LSU.  The Tigers are coming off their huge upset win at Florida as 11-point underdogs last time out, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown the game after.  Keep in mind this is the same team that lost to Texas A&M 64-67 as 5-point favorites the game before, and also that this Florida team may be the worst one that Billy Donovan has ever had.

Vanderbilt has a huge home-court advantage.  It is 9-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 13.6 points per game.  Its only home losses this season have come to quality Georgia and Baylor teams by a combined 6 points, so that's how close it is to being 11-0 at home.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won four of the last five meetings.  Vanderbilt is 7-2 straight up in its last nine home meetings with LSU.  The Tigers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. 

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 11-1 ATS versus excellent teams who shot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston +19.5

There's no question that SMU is one of the most improved teams in the country over the past two seasons.  It should have made the NCAA Tournament last year but got snubbed, and now its off to a 15-4 start this season and well on its way to a berth in the Big Dance.

However, with that 15-4 record comes expectations from the oddsmakers and the betting public that the Mustangs simply cannot live up to.  After covering the spread in three straight games coming into this one, I have no doubt that the Mustangs are overvalued here as 19.5-point favorites over Houston.

The Cougars are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Kelvin Sampson.  Sampson is a guy that has the credentials to turn around this program, just as he did at Oklahoma.  He, like SMU coach Larry Brown, is well-respected among coaching circles as Sampson also has experience in the NBA as well.

While the Cougars are just 7-11 on the season, they are only getting outscored by 1.2 points per game.  They have been competitive in almost every game.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 19 points once in their 18 games this season.  That stat alone shows you that there is value in backing the Cougars as 19.5-point dogs here.

While SMU has won and covered three straight coming in, Houston has helped contribute to this line value by losing seven straight and going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team with how poorly it has been at the pay window of late, which usually means it's time to jump on board.  The price is right tonight.

Houston has played SMU extremely tough in recent years.  In fact, it is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with SMU.  Last year, when SMU nearly made the NCAA Tournament, all three games between these teams were decided by 7 points or less.  SMU won at home 68-64 and on the road 75-68.  However, the Cougars got revenge in the AAC Tournament, winning 68-64 as 9.5-point dogs.  That loss by the Mustangs likely cost them their shot at the Big Dance.

Sampson is 10-2 ATS Off a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached.  SMU is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 home games off one or more consecutive wins.  The Cougars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to SMU.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2

The Syracuse Orange clearly aren't as dominant as they have been in year's past, but they have still managed to post a 14-5 record overall and a 5-1 mark in conference play.  They haven't been that good ATS this year at just 6-10, which is why the betting public hasn't been backing them in year's past.

Well, rarely in the Jim Boeheim era would you ever get the chance to back Syracuse as only a 2-point home favorite.  That's the gift that has been given to us from the oddsmakers today, and we'll take advantage.  After all, Syracuse is 11-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.1 points per game.  I'd say that's a pretty solid home-court advantage.

The reason this line is so low is because Miami is getting a ton of respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers.  It has been a tale of three seasons for the Hurricanes.  They started incredibly, lost to the likes of Wisconsin-Green Bay (55-68), Eastern Kentucky (44-72) and Providence (62-76) in the middle of the season, and now have been playing great again here of late.

However, I believe the Hurricanes are primed for a poor performance Saturday.  They have played five straight grueling games agianst Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Notre Dame and NC State.  Three of those games were decided by 5 points or less, and one went into overtime.

Plus, the Hurricanes will have just one day to prepare for Syracuse off their 65-60 home win over NC State on Thursday.  Meanwhile, Syracuse has had three full days to prepare for Miami after last playing on Tuesday in a 69-61 home win over Boston College.  This is simply a tough scheduling spot for the Hurricanes, and I cannot possibly see them going into Syracuse and pulling off the upset because of it.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Marquette -1

There is a reason that 10-8 Marquette is favored over 13-5 Georgetown today.  The oddsmakers need to make the Eagles an even bigger favorite in this game because this could not be a worse spot for Georgetown, or a better one for Marquette.

Yes, the Hoyas just upset highly-ranked Villanova 78-58 at home for their biggest win of the season.  Well, that sets them up for a letdown spot here today against Marquette.  They cannot possibly bring the kind of effort and focus they brought into the Villanova game into this game.

This is also a revenge spot for Marquette after losing to Georgetown 59-65 as 8.5-point road underdogs on January 6th.  So, the Eagles will want this game more, while the Hoyas have zero interest in beating a team they already beat once, especially after their win over Villanova.

Marquette is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  Not much was expected from this team after former head coach Buzz Williams left for Virginia Tech in the offseason.  Well, new head coach Steve Wojciechowski, who was perhaps the most fierce player in Duke history, hasn't let his team by into the fact that they weren't supposed to be any good.

The Eagles have gone toe-to-toe with the Big East's best this season.  They have beaten Providence at home, while suffering narrow road losses to Georgetown (62-58), St. Johns (57-60) and Xavier (58-62).  They will be even more hungry for a win today after those back-to-back losses to St. John's and Xavier by a combined 7 points coming in.

Marquette is 8-2 at home this season with one of its two losses coming to Wisconsin (38-49).  Georgetown is just 1-2 in true road games with losses to Xavier and Providence, and a narrow win over DePaul (78-72).  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or worse shooting this season.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Georgetown is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the alst three years.  The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Eagles.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-8) have not gotten off to the start they wanted to in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in conference action this season.  As as result, they could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now after failing to cover the spread in seven straight.

This team is obviously better than its 1-6 record would indicate, but it has just lost every close game it has been in.  Indeed, five of the six losses came by 5 points or less, and the only exception was a 12-point loss at highly-ranked Maryland.  They lost at Purdue (68-72), at Michigan (57-62), at Nebraska (49-52), at home against Ohio State (72-74, OT) and at home against Iowa (75-77).

Illinois hasn't gotten off to the best start in Big Ten play, but it has done OK at 3-4.  It is just 1-3 in Big Ten road games this season, losing badly at Michigan (65-73), at Ohio State (61-77) and at Nebraska (43-53).  Its lone conference road win came at Big Ten bottom feeder Northwestern (72-67).

The Fighting Illini have survived despite some serious injury issues, but it can only survive for so long.  It is down two starters in leading scorer Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Tracy Abrams.  Now, another starter just went out in Aaron Crosby (7.8 ppg), who is the team's fourth-leading scorer.  Down three starters, head coach John Groce actually allowed his team manager to walk on to the team earlier this week, which just shows how desperate of a situation this is for Illinois.

Minnesota is 10-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.  Illinois is just 1-4 in true road games this year where it is getting outscored by 7.6 points per game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 50 or fewer points in their previous game.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -3

The Texas Longhorns did not get off to the best start in Big 12 play, but a lot of that was due to injury.  Now healthy, the Longhorns are showing why they had such high expectations coming into the season with five starters back from last year and a stud freshman coming in.

The Longhorns are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over West Virginia (77-50) at home and TCU (66-48) on the road.  They held the Mountaineers to just 24.1% shooting, and the Horned Frogs to 33.3%.  They are the best defensive team in the Big 12, and it's not even close.

Kansas is more beatable than it has ever been in 2014-15.  It's streak of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the conference title is in serious jeopardy.  It has only blown out one Big 12 opponent this year, and that was bottom feeder Texas Tech at home.  Despite being 4-1 in the Big 12, four of its five games were decided by 10 points or less.  This isn't the same dominate Kansas team of year's past, but it continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers that is not deserved.

Texas is 9-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 19.1 points per game.  Kansas is just 2-2 in true road games with narrow wins over Georgetown (75-70) and Baylor (56-55).  It has also lost at Temple (52-77) and at Iowa State (81-66) on the road.  Texas beat Kansas 81-69 as 4-point home underdogs last year.  Keep in mind that Texas team wasn't as good as this one, while that Kansas team was way better than this one.

Kansas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games coming in.  Texas is 7-1 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points this season.  It is only giving up 56.3 PPG on 34.4% shooting this year.  The Jayhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Longhorns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -1.5

The California Golden Bears (11-7) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of their last seven while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  I'm ready to buy low on the Golden Bears here as they are getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point favorites over the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Yes, the Golden Bears have not played all that well here of late.  However, they just recently got back one of their best players in guard Jabari Bird, who has only played in eight games all season due to injury.  He has returned for the last two games, but only played eight minutes against UCLA and 20 against Stanford.  Bird scored 12-plus points in four of his first five games of the season prior to the injury.

Obviously, the Golden Bears were working Bird back slowly, but they can take off the leash now.  That's because they have had a whopping seven days in between games since their 59-69 loss to Stanford on January 14th.  Arizona State, meanwhile, only has four days off in between games.  California will clearly be the more rested, more prepared team in this one.

Arizona State (9-9) has no business getting this much respect from the books.  It has lost four of its last five games coming in with its only victory coming at home against a short-handed Colorado team 78-72 last time out.  The Sun Devils are 0-7 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.5 points per game.  They are 0-5 in true road games, getting outscored by 8.6 points per game.

The Sun Devils are 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Arizona State is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The Sun Devils are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet California Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -2

The Providence Friars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They got no love last year when they made the NCAA Tournament, and now they are getting no respect in 2014-15 again.  They have gone 14-5 in all games and 10-5-1 ATS in their 16 lined games this year.

Once again, the Friars aren't getting any love as only 2-point home favorites over Xavier tonight.  The Friars are 9-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.7 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of UMass (85-65), Creighton (65-63) and Georgetown (60-57) at home this year, while also topping FSU (80-54), Notre Dame (75-74), Miami (76-62) and Butler (66-62) on the road.

Xavier is a quality team this year as well at 12-6, but it tends to get more respect from the books than Providence.  The Musketeers have really been struggling of late, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Butler (76-88) and at Villanova (75-88), while barely beating Marquette (62-58) as 9.5-point home favorites. 

The Musketeers are 1-4 in true road games this year with those losses to Butler and Villanova, but also lowly DePaul and Auburn.  Their only road win came at Missouri, which is one of the worst teams in the SEC.  The home team won both meetings between Xavier and Providence last year.

The Friars are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Providence is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards per game than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 8-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Friars.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +19.5

The Utah Utes are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are off to a blistering 14-3 start this season and are currently the No. 12 ranked team in the country.  Well, with that high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

The Utes are in a hangover spot here.  They had a chance to prove themselves as a legitimate contender to win the Pac-12, but fell flat their faces in a 51-69 loss at Arizona on Saturday.  Off such a big, emotional game, it's only human nature for them to have a hangover effect here against Washington State.

The Utes won't be amped up to face the Cougars, who are just 9-8 on the season.  However, you cannot let that record fool you because this team has been playing some pretty stellar basketball here of late, which makes me believe they should have no problem staying within this massive spread tonight.

Washington State is 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It did lose at Stanford (56-71) and versus Oregon State (47-62), but it also pulled off upset road wins over California (69-66) as 9.5-point dogs and Washington (80-77) as 11.5-point dogs.  The Cougars also upset Oregon (108-99) as 3-point home dogs.

Utah hasn't beaten Washington State by more than 18 points since 2000. This is the biggest spread in the history of this series between Utah and Washington State.  The Utes also haven't been favored by this much against anyone since November 29th against Alabama State at home, which was a 23.5-point spread.

Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points (WASHINGTON ST) - good ball handling team (at least 14.5 TO's/game) against a poor pressure defense (less than 14.5 TO's/game) after 15+ games are 60-24 (71.4%) ATS since 1997.

The Cougars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Cougars are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Washington State Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +10

The Creighton Bluejays are showing tremendous value today as 10-point road underdogs to the Butler Bulldogs.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now because they have lost seven straight games coming into this one.

Well, a closer look at this seven-game losing streak shows that the Bluejays have at least been competitive.  Indeed, five of the seven losses came by 10 points or less, including two by exactly one point to Marquette and Seton Hall.

Butler isn't a team known for blowing out its opponents due to the style in which it plays.  In fact, it only has one win by double-digits in its last six games overall.  Its last two games have been decided by a total of six points in a loss to Georgetown and an overtime win against Seton Hall.

Creighton pulled off the season sweep against Butler last year.  It won 88-60 at home as 10-point favorites, and then 68-63 as 8-point road favorites.  I realize the Bluejays aren't the team they were a year ago, but they are much better than they are getting credit for tonight from the books.

Plays against favorites of of 10 to 19.5 points (BUTLER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Creighton Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are showing tremendous value as 8-point home underdogs to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  This is a Wake Forest team that is improving greatly in the first year under head coach Danny Manning, who was fortunate enough to have three starters back from last year.

I know the Demon Deacons are only 9-9 this season, but I've seen enough from them here of late to know that they can not only cover the 8-point spread, but also win this game outright.  They have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall as they have been undervalued time and time again, and they are still getting no respect from the books tonight.

Wake Forest has won four of its last seven games with its three losses coming to Louisville (76-85) as 12.5-point underdogs, Duke (65-73) as 15-point dogs, and Syracuse (83-86) as 9.5-point dogs.  If they can stay within single-digits of all three of those ACC powers, they can certainly do the same against North Carolina tonight.

What really stood out to me when handicapping this game was the fact that the Demon Deacons are rested and ready to go, while the Tar Heels are now.  Wake Forest last played on January 13th against Syracuse, getting seven days off in between games.  UNC last played on January 18th against Virginia Tech, getting just two days off in between games.  I'll gladly back the more rested, more prepared team tonight in the Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest pulled off the upset at home last year against North Carolina as 6.5-point underdogs.  It won that game 73-67, and it is fully capable of doing the same thing with a better team this time around, and several players who starred in that upset.

The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Demon Deacons.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Wisconsin ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa +9.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game overvalued as 9.5-point favorites against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are the No. 6 ranked team in the country and off to a 16-2 start, so they are obviously getting a lot of respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers right now.

The Badgers have not been living up to those expectations despite playing a very soft schedule.  They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall despite going 5-1 straight up.  They only beat Buffalo (68-56) as 22-point home favorites, Penn State (89-72) as 18.5-point home favorites, Purdue (62-55) as 16.5-point home favorites, Nebraska (70-55) as 15-point home favorites, and lost at Rutgers (62-67) as 15-point road favorites.

As you can see, the Badgers have played an extremely soft schedule here of late, and they won't be ready for the test they are about to get from Iowa.  This will easily be Wisconsin's toughest opponent dating back to a 70-80 home loss to Duke back on January 3rd.  They aren't going to be able to put away the Hawkeyes by 10-plus points to cover this spread.

Iowa has really turned its season around and now finds itself in the Top 25 with a 13-5 record.  It has gone 5-1 in its last six games overall.  That includes road wins over Ohio State (71-65) as 7-point dogs and Minnesota (77-75) as 3-point dogs, as well as home wins over Nebraska (70-59) as 9.5-point favorites and Ohio State (76-67) as 1.5-point favorites.  Iowa is actually 3-0 in true road games this year, playing its best basketball away from home.

The closely-contested nature of this series makes Iowa the pick here as well.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings between Wisconsin and Iowa have been decided by 7 points or less.  Time and time again Wisconsin is overvalued when playing the Hawkeyes, who are 6-1 ATS in those seven meetings.  They want revenge after losing each of the last three meetings in this series, including both last year, all by 5 points or less.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games following a S.U. win.  Wisconsin is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Combine these three trends with the fact that the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 or less, and we have a perfect 23-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* K-State/Iowa State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +11

The ninth-ranked Iowa State Cyclones are way overvalued here due to their 13-3 start and off their huge 86-81 win over Kansas on Saturday.  This is the ideal letdown spot for the Cyclones as the Jayhawks are their nemesis.  ESPN's College Gameday was in Ames for that game as well, and there's no way these players are going to come back now two days later with the kind of focus it takes to put away Kansas State by 11-plus points.

While the Cyclones couldn't be getting more love from the betting public and the oddsmakers for their win over Kansas, the Kansas State Wildcats continue to get disrespected in Big 12 play.  Sure, they are just 11-6 on the season, but they have stepped their game up in conference play, and I've seen enough from them to know they can stay within double-digits of Iowa State, especially in this favorable spot.

Kansas State is 4-1 in Big 12 play.  It has reeled off four straight victories since its opening loss at Oklahoma State.  It beat TCU (58-53) as 4.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma (66-63, OT) as 12-point road underdogs, Texas Tech (58-51) as 9.5-point home favorites, and Baylor (63-61) as 1.5-point home favorites.  Those wins over Oklahoma and Baylor show that the Wildcats can play with the Big 12's elite, home or away.

The closely-contested nature of this series makes Kansas State the play as well.  Each of the last seven meetings between Kansas State and Iowa State have been decided by 9 points or less.  The Wildcats will be out for revenge on the Cyclones after losing two out of three meetings last year.  Kansas State has lost its last three visits to Hilton Coliseum by an average of 4.6 points.

In fact, Kansas State hasn't lost any of its last 19 meetings with Iowa State by more than 9 points.  That makes for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to tonight's 11-point spread.  Enough said.  Take Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -3

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are easily one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten.  That is evidenced by the fact that they have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, time and time again not getting the respect they deserve from the betting public or the oddsmakers.  They are showing excellent value again tonight as only 3-point favorites over Michigan.

Rutgers has proven its value in its last three games where it has played three of the best teams in the Big Ten right down to the wire.  It upset Wisconsin 67-62 as 15-point home dogs, then went on the road and hung with Maryland (65-73) as 14-point dogs and Minnesota (80-89) as 12.5-point dogs.

Michigan gets a lot of love from the betting public just because it's Michigan.  Well, the Wolverines are clearly having a down year at 11-7 as this team is rebuilding.  They are just 5-11 ATS in all lined games and are getting more respect than they deserve tonight because they have played a lot better here of late.

Indeed, the Wolverines are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall.  However, their five wins came against Coppin State, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota and Northwestern with four of those coming at home.  They lost two road games in blowout fashion to Purdue (51-62) and Ohio State (52-71) during this span to drop to 1-3 in true road games this year.

If Michigan were at full strength, I'd still like Rutgers tonight, but the Wolverines are far from it.  They will be playing their first game without guard Chris LeVert, who leads the team in scoring (14.9 ppg), rebounding (4.9 rpg), assists (3.7 apg) and 3-point shooting (40.5%).  They have even struggled with him, and now that he is out for the season with a foot injury, they are going to really struggle going forward.

The injury concerns don't stop at LaVert, however.  Second-leading scorer Zak Irvin (13.9 ppg), fourth-leading scorer Ricky Doyle (7.3 ppg) and fifth-leading scorer Spike Albrecht (5.1 ppg) are all battling a respiratory illness.  Irvin and Doyle are both probable, while Albrecht is questionable.  Also, third-leading scorer Derrick Walton Jr. (10.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) is questionable with a foot injury.  That means that each of their top five scorers are battling illness or injury, and they could be without up to three of them tonight.  Being without LeVert is more than enough reason to fade Michigan.

Plays against an underdog (MICHIGAN) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (less than 32%) after 15+ games, after two straight games making 37% of their shots or worse are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RUTGERS) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Wolverines are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Roll with Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks (14-3) come into this game against the Oklahoma Sooners (12-5) highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off an 86-81 road loss to the Iowa State Cyclones to suffer their first Big 12 loss this year.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight against Oklahoma.

"It's a quick turnaround," head coach Bill Self said. "Now the real fun begins trying to get your team back (after) a deflating loss. We'll have to be good because I think (Oklahoma) and Iowa State are the two best offensive teams in our league, and we saw how we guarded one of the two. We'll have to make some adjustments and hopefully be turned up more defensively on Monday."

Oklahoma comes into this game overvalued after its 82-65 throttling of Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The Sooners shot a ridiculous 55.8% from the field, which can be attributed to Buddy Hield's 10-for-10 shooting performance.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again on the road this time around.

The Sooners are just 4-4 in all road/neutral games this season, including 2-2 in true road games.  That includes an ugly 65-86 road loss to West Virginia in their last road contest, and I believe another beatdown can be expected in this one.

Kansas is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  It has beaten some good teams at home too in the likes of Florida (71-65), UNLV (76-61) and Oklahoma State (67-57).  The Jayhawks are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Sooners, outscoring them by 17.2 points per game on average.  Oklahoma hasn't won in Lawrence since 1993 as it is 0-13 in the last 13 meetings at Allen Fieldhouse, and 7-44 overall there.

Kansas is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 15-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 24-10-1 ATS in its last 35 vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Kansas Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -3

Now back to full strength with the healthy return of guard Isaiah Taylor (11.1 ppg, 2.9 apg), the Texas Longhorns are one of the best teams in the country.  They did not play all that well without Taylor, who has missed 10 games this year, but they are coming off their best performance of the season and it's only going to continue.

Texas (13-4) bounced back from two straight ugly losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with a resounding 77-50 home victory over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  They held the Mountaineers to just 24.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-32 for the game.

TCU (14-3) is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  However, the Horned Frogs benefited from playing a very easy non-conference schedule, where they went 13-0.  It has been a completely different story in Big 12 play as they have gone just 1-3 with their only victory coming against lowly Texas Tech.  They lost to WVU (67-78) and Baylor (59-66) at home, as well as KSU (53-58) on the road.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Texas is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last six meetings with TCU dating back to 2008 with all six victories coming by 5 points or more, including three by double-digits.  The Longhorns swept the season series last year winning 66-54 at home and 59-54 on the road.  With all five starters back for Texas, I look for the one-sided nature of this series to continue tonight.

The one area of this game that is going to be the biggest difference is rebounding.  Texas is one of the best rebounding teams in the country  with a +12.2 rebounding margin on the season.  They have a +4.7 margin in Big 12 play.  Well, TCU is not a great rebounding team as it has  a -4.8 rebounding margin in Big 12 action this season.  The Longhorns will dominate this game with their length and athleticism on the interior.

TCU is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half of its last game over the past three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 or fewer points in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 22-50 ATS in their last 72 home games.  Take Texas Monday.

20* College Hoops DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +22.5

Fans of the Virginia Tech Hokies have to be happy with the outlook of the program.  Former Marquette head coach Buzz Williams was hired to turn around the program.  It's only a matter of time before he does, and I have no doubt the Hokies are only going to improve as the season goes on.

Virginia Tech is off to just an 8-8 start this season, but it has been competitive in most of its losses.  In fact, all but one of its eight losses came by 19 points or less, including four by a combined 9 points as it has simply been on the wrong end of several close defeats.

The Hokies have put forth some promising efforts this year that give me little doubt that they can stay within 22.5 of North Carolina.  They only lost 58-61 at Penn State as 8.5-point dogs, lost 66-68 as 9.5-point home dogs to Syracuse, and lost 63-78 as 22-point road dogs to Louisville.

North Carolina (13-4) is one of the better teams in the ACC, but asking it to win by 23-plus to cover this spread is asking too much. The Tar Heels have certainly been vulnerable at home this year.  They lost to Iowa 55-60 as 7.5-point favorites, and lost to Notre Dame 70-71 as 8-point favorites.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Tar Heels.  They are coming off three straight huge games against Notre Dame, Louisville and NC State.  They did beat Louisville (72-71) at home and NC State (81-79) on the road, but only by a combined three points.  After playing two ranked teams and their in-state rivals, the Tar Heels won't be able to match the intensity they played with in those three contests against VA Tech.

The last two years, North Carolina was expected to roll a Virginia Tech team that was worse than it is this year.  The Hokies went just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play, yet they nearly upset the Tar Heels as double-digit dogs in both meetings.  They lost 60-72 (OT) as 14.5-point road dogs in 2014, and lost 56-60 as 10.5-point home dogs in 2014.

This has been a common theme in all recent meetings as the Hokies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC foes.  UNC is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 Sunday games.  Roll with Virginia Tech Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns were off to a 12-2 start before back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State within the Big 12.  They now come into this game highly motivated for a victory to put an end to this two-game skid when they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday.

What I really like about this spot is not only the motivation, but also the fact that the Longhorns will be well-rested and ready to go. Their last game was a week ago last Saturday, so they have had six full days to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Mountaineers.

West Virginia, meanwhile, is coming off an 86-65 blowout home win over Oklahoma on Tuesday.  It has had only three days to prepare for Texas.  Plus, that win over a ranked Sooners team sets the Mountaineers up for a letdown spot tonight against Texas as they simply won't be able to match the intensity of the Longhorns given the situation.

Texas won all three meetings with West Virginia last year via blowout with an 80-69 road win, an 88-71 home win, and a 66-49 neutral court win in the Big 12 Tournament.  With all five starters back from last year for the Longhorns, I look for another blowout in this game tonight.

Texas is 17-3 ATS in home games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread since 1997.  It is coming back to win in this spot by an average of 14.8 points per game.  The Longhorns are clearly undervalued due to their recent stretch of poor play.  Getting them as only 2-point home favorites is a gift.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be out for revenge on the Maryland Terrapins tonight.  They lost a 66-68 (OT) heartbreaker at home to the Terrapins on December 30th in their Big Ten opener.  I look for them to have their revenge on the road less than three weeks later.

Tom Izzo's teams always seem to get better as the season goes on.  Well, that has been the case again in 2014-15.  After a 9-5 start, the Spartans have reeled off three straight victories within the Big Ten, including a blowout home win over Indiana (70-50), and an impressive road win at Iowa (75-61).

Maryland is one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but it is also overvalued due to its 16-2 start this season.  The Terrapins barely survived in a 73-65 win over Rutgers as 14-point favorites last time out.  They also lost at Illinois 57-64 three games ago.

This is not only a great situation for the Spartans because of the revenge, but also because of the rest.  The Spartans last played on January 11th, while the Terrapins last played on January 14th.  Michigan State has had five days off in between games to get ready for Maryland, while the Terrapins have only had two days off in between their last game against Rutgers.

Michigan State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 65 or fewer points in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 11-2 ATS in road games over the last two years.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings in this series.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -1.5

With four starters back from last year, I expected the Penn State Nittany Lions to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  Well, they have not disappointed up to this point with a 12-5 record.

However, they have yet to win a Big Ten game amidst a brutal opening schedule.  They are 0-4 in conference action with three losses by single-digits and three of their first four games on the road.  The only exception was a 72-89 loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point dogs in which they covered.  You can bet they will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home today.

The Purdue Boilermakers are an improved team as well this year, but they are just 10-7 and getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point road underdogs in this one.

Purdue is 0-2 in true road games this season, while Penn State is 7-1 in home games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 4-16 ATS in Saturday games over the last three seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +13

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a respectable 10-8 start this season despite playing a very difficult schedule.  I've been very impressed with this team in Big Ten play to start the year.

Rutgers is off to a 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS start within the Big Ten.  Its last two performances show that it can play with anyone.  It upset Wisconsin 67-62 at home as 15-point underdogs two games ago.  Then, it gave Maryland everything it wanted in a 65-73 road loss as 14-point dogs last time out.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It is off to an 11-7 start this season, which is poor when you consider the expectations the Golden Gophers had coming into the year.  Well, they have gotten a reality check in Big Ten play.

Indeed, the Golden Gophers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in Big Ten action this season.  They lost at Purdue 68-72, lost at Maryland 58-70, lost at home to Ohio State 72-74, lost at Michigan 57-62, and lost at home to Iowa 75-77.  This team is really lacking in confidence right now, and they do not have the skill to put away Rutgers by 13-plus points today.

Richard Pitino is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Minnesota.  When these upset losses happen, Pitino just hasn't been able to rally the troops at all.  In fact, it has gone the other way as they are getting outscored by an average of 3.3 points per game in their next game.  Roll with Rutgers Saturday.

15* Gonzaga/Pepperdine Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +12.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are a very public team due to their successes in the NCAA Tournament over the last several years, and their 16-1 record and No. 3 national ranking in 2014-15.  They are consistently overvalued as a result as the public just backs them blindly.

Gonzaga has no business laying 12.5-point on the road to Pepperdine tonight.  The Bulldogs have dominated at home this season, but they have been much more shaky on the road, and asking them to win by 13-plus points against an improved Waves squad is asking too much.

Gonzaga has played eight games away from home this season.  All eight of those games resulted in wins by 13 points or less.  They beat Georgia (88-76), St. Johns (73-66) and Cal Poly-SLO (63-50) all on neutral courts, and UCLA (87-74), BYU (87-80), San Diego (60-48) and Portland (87-75) on the road.  They also lost at Arizona (63-66).

Pepperdine is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-5 this season.  As a result, the Waves have been one of the most underrated teams in the land as well, as evidenced by their 11-3 ATS record in their 14 lined games this year.  Yet, they are still getting no respect from the betting public tonight.

The Waves come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won 71-61 as 7.5-point home favorites over Pacific, 67-61 as 15-point road dogs at BYU, and 59-47 as 4-point road dogs at San Diego. 

That win over BYU on the road shows that the Waves can play with anyone in the country.  Plus, they have even been competitive in their losses.  All five of Pepperdine's losses have come by 11 points or less, which includes a 61-72 loss at Iowa as 16-point dogs, a 74-81 loss at Arizona State as 8-point dogs, and a 63-65 loss to Richmond on a neutral court as 5-point dogs.

Gonzaga is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 road games off two straight home wins by 10 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The Wave are 9-0 ATS after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  Pepperdine is 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the Waves.  Take Pepperdine Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +15

The Wisconsin Badgers are overvalued due to their 15-2 start and their No. 7 national ranking.  They should not be laying 15 points to a Nebraska team that beat them 77-68 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad.

Wisconsin also has four starters back this year, but two of those are banged up.  Frank Kaminsky (concussion) is expected to return tonight after sitting out a 62-67 loss at Rutgers as 15-point favorites last time out.  Starting point guard Traevon Jackson (9.4 ppg, 2.9 apg) injured his ankle in that loss to Rutgers and is out indefinitely.

The Badgers have been overvalued here recently and they continue to be tonight.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only beat Buffalo by 12 as 22.5-point home favorites, Penn State by 17 as 18.5-point home favorites, Purdue by 7 as 16.5-point home favorites, and then lost to Rutgers 62-67 as 15-point road favorites.

With four starters back from a team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year, expectations were high for Nebraska.  Well, the Huskers got off to a slow start and have been undervalued ever since.  They have dealt with injuries all year, and they are now finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Huskers have been much more competitive in Big Ten play.  They did open with a 65-70 loss to Indiana as a 4-point home favorite, and then lost 59-70 at Iowa as 9.5-point underdogs in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They have rebounded with back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (65-49) as 10-point favorites, and Illinois (53-43) as 3-point favorites.

Nebraska is 14-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 2-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Rice +17

The Rice Owls are showing excellent value tonight as 17-point road underdogs to the Old Dominion Monarchs.  The betting public is all over Old Dominion and its 13-2 record, while ignoring Rice and its 4-10 record, providing us with some great line value on the road underdogs in this one.

Rice may be just 4-10, but it has been much more competitive than that record would indicate, which is evidenced by its 6-2 ATS mark on the season.  In fact, all 10 of Rice's losses have come by 13 points or less this season, including seven of those by single-digits.

One performance that really stands out to me and shows what the Owls are capable of was their 55-66 loss at Texas as 27.5-point underdogs.  They stayed within 11 points of the Longhorns on the road, who are one of the best teams in the country.  They can certainly stay within 17 of Old Dominion on the road tonight.

Yes, Old Dominion is a quality team that will have a chance to win Conference USA and make the NCAA Tournament.  However, only four of its 13 wins have come by more than 17 points.  Those were against UNC-Wilmington, North Carolina A&T, Mount St. Mary's and Marshall.

These teams met last year in Old Dominion with the Monarchs once again getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  They were 10.5-point favorites over the Owls, and they only won 55-51 to fail to cover the spread.  Now they are 17-point home favorites a year later, which is way too much.

Old Dominion is 1-10 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Monarchs are 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering Rice has played 14 games this year and hasn't lost once by more than 13 points, that's a 14-0 system pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread backing the Owls.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +15.5

These are two teams with identical 9-6 records squaring off tonight as the Auburn Tigers visit the Florida Gators in SEC play.  There is not 15.5 points that separates these two teams even when you give Florida home-court advantage.

Auburn is in transition mode under first-year head coach Bruce Pearl, who was the former Tennessee boss.  It was going to take some time for the Tigers to gel, and there were some very ugly results in the early going.  However, this team is playing their best basketball of the season entering this matchup.

Indeed, the Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while going 3-1-1 ATS in their lined games.  Their only loss during this stretch came at Vanderbilt 52-64 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They have won three of their games by 16 points or more, while also beating Xavier 89-88 and Missouri 85-79 during this stretch.

Florida is overvalued due to its name and program history.  The Gators are in rebuilding mode this year under Billy Donovan and are a borderline NCAA Tournament team.  With six losses already, including home losses to Miami & UConn, they clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.

Florida is 1-8 ATS after covering two of its last three games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.  The Gators are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Gators.  Bet Auburn Thursday.

15* SDSU/Wyoming ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -1.5

The Wyoming Cowboys are a team that just doesn't get the attention they deserve.  Yes, they just recently moved into the Top 25 after their 15-2 start this season, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers still don't give the Cowboys the respect they deserve.

Wyoming's only two losses this season came on the road to SMU (53-66) and California (42-45), which are two very good teams and it should not be ashamed of those losses one bit.  At home, it has been a completely different story for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.5 points per game at home this year.  It is coming off impressive back-to-back wins at Colorado State (60-54) as 5-point dogs, and at home against Boise State (65-54) as 7-point favorites.

San Diego State is 12-4 this season and clearly overvalued due to what it has done in recent years.  Well, these aren't the same Aztecs this season.  They are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses at Washington (36-49) as 1.5-point favorites, at Cincinnati (62-71) as 2-point dogs, and at Fresno State (57-59) as 8.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Wyoming and San Diego State.  The home team has won four straight and nine of the last 11 meetings.  The Cowboys have pulled off the upset in each of their last two home meetings with the Aztecs.  They won 68-62 at home as 4-point dogs to SDSU last year, and 58-45 as 2-point home dogs in 2013.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO ST) - poor three point shooting team (32% or worse) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

San Diego State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country.  It shoots just 40.4% from the field and 28.0% from the 3-point stripe.  Wyoming shoots 50.4% from the field while allowing just 39.8% shooting and 52.2 points per game to opponents.  The Cowboys are one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends of the floor.

The Aztecs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Wyoming is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +2

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-6 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-4 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73), Ohio State (61-77) and Nebraska (43-53).  I look for it to drop to 0-5 on the road this season against a Northwestern team that is 10-6 and underrated in terms of the betting public and the oddsmakers.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  This team just isn't that good without Rice.

The Wildcats had won four straight prior to their back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the Big Ten in Wisconsin and Michigan State.  Well, they actually went on the road and gave the Spartans all they could handle as 14-point underdogs.  They forced overtime and eventually lost 77-84.

Northwestern has played Illinois very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, it has actually won four of the last six meetings with one of the two losses coming by a single point.  It won 49-43 at home last year as 5.5-point underdogs.  The Wildcats also pulled off a pair of upsets with a 68-54 win as 10-point road dogs in 2013 and a 74-70 win as 6-point road dogs in 2012.

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  These last four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +4

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-6) are primed for a big performance against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight.  I look for them to not only cover this 4-point spread, but to likely win this game outright with all the factors that are in play coming in.

Georgia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory due to losing three straight to open ACC play to fall to 0-3 within the conference. All three losses came by 7 points or less at Notre Dame (76-83, OT) as 11.5-point dogs, versus Syracuse (45-46) as 4-point dogs, and at Wake Forest (69-76) as 3-point dogs.

Obviously, after already losing to Notre Dame in overtime in the ACC opener on January 3rd on the road, the Yellow Jackets are going to be out for revenge in the rematch less than two weeks later.  They are simply going to want this game more.

Notre Dame (15-2) is overvalued due to its fast start to the season.  It is in a prime letdown spot after a 56-62 loss to No. 2 ranked Virginia on Saturday.  Look for the Irish to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.

One factor that is getting overlooked here is that Notre Dame forward Zach Auguste has been suspended indefinitely following the Virginia Game.  Auguste is the team's second-leading scorer (14.3 PPG) and second-leading rebounder (6.4 RPG).  He also shoots 65.3% from the field, so his loss is a crushing blow to the Fighting Irish.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings.  Notre Dame is 6-15 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Irish are 3-12 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.   Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -4

The South Carolina Gamecocks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and Ole Miss to open SEC play, so they are going to be highly motivated to get their first taste of victory in conference play.

South Carolina has dropped to 9-5 with those two straight losses, but this is still one of the most underrated teams in the country with four starters back from last year.  Wins over the likes of Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60) certainly show what the Gamecocks are capable of.

Alabama comes into this game way overvalued due to its six-game winning streak and its 2-0 start in SEC play.  Well, this streak has mostly come against a soft schedule with five of six games at home.  Yes, the 56-38 win at Tennessee last time out was impressive, but now the Vols are in a massive letdown spot.

Tennessee plays No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  It's only human nature for the Volunteers to be looking ahead to that game against the Wildcats.  They will come into this game overconfident due to their six-game streak, and they will be peaking ahead to Kentucky.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the Gamecocks, who will simply want this one more.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  South Carolina is 6-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 17.9 points per game.  Alabama is 1-2 in true road games this year.

Alabama is 2-21 ATS off six or more consecutive since since 1997.  This trend just goes to show you that the Crimson Tide have been overvalued when on extended winning streaks.  Also, the Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start to the season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 19-13 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, so they were expected to make another run at the tournament this year.

Well, that run needs to start soon after a slow 9-6 start for the Huskers.  They have been in every game they've played as all six of their losses have come by 11 points or less, and I have no doubt that this team is better than their record.  They got back on track with a 65-49 home win over Rutgers last time out, and I look for them to carry that momentum into today's game with Illinois.

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-5 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-3 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73) and Ohio State (61-77).  I look for it to drop to 0-4 on the road this season against a Nebraska team that has been great at home over the past two seasons.  The Huskers are 22-4 at home over the past two years.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  They come in overvalued off their upset home win over Maryland, but this team just isn't that good without Rice.

Nebraska is 13-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Huskers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

20* Virginia/Notre Dame ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to be undervalued this season as home underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Irish came into the season picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC.  Well, everyone was wrong on this team, and the oddsmakers are wrong in listing them as home underdogs in this matchup as well.

Notre Dame is off to a 14-1 start this season and currently ranked No. 13 in the country.  Its only loss came by a final of 74-75 on a neutral court against Providence, which was actually essentially a home game for the Friars.  The Irish have impressive wins over the likes of UMass (81-68) and Purdue (94-63) on a neutral court, Michigan State (79-78) and Florida State (83-63) at home, as well as North Carolina (71-70) on the road.

Notre Dame returned four starters from last year, and all four have made big strides this season.  The key was getting Jerian Grant back from suspension.  Grant only played the first 12 games last year before being suspended the rest of the way due to academic issues.

Grant (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.2 rpg) is one of the best players in the entire country.  Zach Auguste (14.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg) along with Grant give the Irish four players who are scoring at least 13.9 points per game.  Not too many other teams in the country can claim that.

While Virginia is a very good team that won the ACC regular season and postseason titles last year, it is simply overvalued due to its 14-0 start this season.  The Cavaliers have been flirting with disaster here of late, and I look for them to suffer their first loss of the season Saturday to the best team they have played yet. 

They only beat Davidson 83-72 at home as 18-point favorites, Miami 89-80 (OT) on the road as 6.5-point favorites, and NC State (61-51) at home as 14-point favorites in their last three games overall.  They easily could have lost all three games, especially that overtime game on the road against Miami.

Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  The Fighting Irish are 12-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 26.5 points per game.  They are simply tough to beat at home, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere on Saturday.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are in a massive hangover spot here.  They came out of nowhere to give No. 1 Kentucky a run for its money on Tuesday, forcing overtime with the Wildcats before eventually losing 86-89 as 23-point underdogs.

While that performance was impressive, there's no way this team will be able to recover from such a tough defeat to the No. 1 team in the country.  I look for the Rebels to fall flat on their faces Saturday against a South Carolina team that is better and will want this game more.

The Rebels aren't even that good of a team this year at 9-5, and several performances show that.  They lost at home to Charleston Southern 65-66 as 13-point favorites, lost at home to TCU 54-66 as 6-point favorites, and lost at home to Western Kentucky 74-81 as 9.5-point favorites.  So, they have already been beaten three times at home this year by suspect competition.

South Carolina has really impressed me during its 9-4 start.  Its four losses have all come to quality competition in Baylor (65-69), Charlotte (63-65), Akron (63-68) and Florida (68-72) all by four points or less.  It has also beaten some good teams like Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60). 

The Gamecocks are very close to being a 13-0 team right now despite playing a brutal schedule.  Head coach Frank Martin, who had a ton of success at Kansas State before arriving at South Carolina, finally has his players in place.  He returned four starters from last year's team, and this is now a battle-tested, experience squad, which counts for a lot.

South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Ole Miss.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on DePaul +21

There's no denying that the Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 on the season.  However, with that record comes big expectations from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which has the Wildcats way overvalued heading into this showdown with DePaul Saturday.

DePaul is just 9-7 on the season, but this is a veteran bunch that returned four starters from last year and is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country.  What I really like about the Blue Demons is how well they are playing in conference play in the early going.

Indeed, DePaul is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big East action.  It has pulled off three straight upsets.  The Blue Demons won 61-58 as 5-point home dogs to Marquette, 71-68 as 10.5-point home dogs to Xavier, and 70-60 as 10-point road dogs to Creighton to open conference play.  Obviously, if they can beat those three teams, they can certainly stay within 21 of Villanova Saturday.

Jay Wright is 14-28 ATS after playing two consecutive road games as the coach of Villanova.  The Blue Demons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big East foes.  These four returning starters for the Blue Demons have not forgotten their two blowout losses to the Wildcats last year by 26 and 25 points.  They want revenge, and their improvement over last year should have them staying within 21.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland -6.5

The Portland Pilots are a team that I have my eye on.  I don't normally play too many teams from smaller conferences, but there are times when I can find a team and ride them when I know they are going under the radar in a small conference.  The WCC is not the smallest of conferences, but not a lot of folks pay attention to it, so there can be some value had.

Portland returned four starters from last year, and this veteran bunch is off to an 11-5 start this season.  The five losses all came to quality competition, and the Pilots were rather competitive in them.  They lost 55-70 to Valparaiso on a neutral court, 58-65 at home to Oregon State, 73-75 at UNLV as 6-point road dogs, 88-97 at BYU as 10.5-point road dogs, and 75-87 at home to Gonzaga as 12-point dogs.

Portland has gone a very profitable 10-3-1 ATS in all lined games this year as it has consistently been undervalued.  This is a very deep team that has eight players averaging at least 6.4 points per game.  Leading the way has been four double-digit scorers in Alec Wintering (14.1 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kevin Bailey (12.0 ppg), Thomas van der Mars (10.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Volodymyr Gerun (10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg).

From what I've seen from San Francisco thus far, it is certainly fade material.  The Dons are just 7-10 this season with some very ugly losses.  They lost by 15 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 17 to Colorado, by 5 at home to Eastern Washington, by 7 at home to Cal Poly-SLO, by 13 at St. Mary's, by 31 at home against BYU, and by 31 at Gonzaga.

Those two performances against BYU and Gonzaga give these teams a pair of common opponents.  Well, BYU and Gonzaga are considered the two best teams in the WCC.  San Francisco lost by 31 to BYU and by 31 to Gonzaga.  Portland only lost to BYU by 9 and to Gonzaga by 12.  Plus, the Dons could easily have a hangover effect here after losing to both BYU and Gonzaga in their last two games, which are games they were obviously amped up for.  Because of those results, I believe we are getting the Pilots at a discount here as only 6.5-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 0-7 ATS versus good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots this season.  Portland is 6-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Pilots are 7-0 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.  The Dons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pilots.  Bet Portland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Washington State +11.5

These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest.  While Washington State is just 7-7 this season and Washington is 11-3, you can throw the records out the window when these in-state rivals get together.  I'll gladly take the double-digit points with the road underdog Cougars in this one.

There's no denying that Washington State has some bad losses this season, but I love the way that it is playing coming into this game.  It has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall, time and time again getting overlooked by oddsmakers.

It started with a 91-71 win over TX-San Antonio as 8.5-point home favorites.  The Cougars then went on the road and played a competitive game against one of the best teams in the country in a 66-81 loss at Gonzaga as 22.5-point favorites.  They did fail to cover at Santa Clara in a 67-76 loss, but rebounded with back-to-back covers against San Jose State (82-53) and Cal Davis (90-83) at home.  They lost 56-71 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, then upset Cal on the road 69-66 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are clearly playing well coming in.

Washington has some impressive wins this season and started the season 11-0.  However, you just cannot trust the Huskies to lay 11.5 points with the way they have been playing coming into this game.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Tulane 66-57 as 14-point home favorites, lost to Stony Brook 57-62 as 13.5-point home favorites, lost at Cal 75-81 as 1-point road favorites, and lost at Stanford 60-68 as 5.5-point underdogs.  They just aren't playing good basketball heading in.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years.  In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between Washington and Washington State have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Cougars given this 11.5-point spread.  Also, eight of those 11 meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Throw in the 10-1 system on the 11 points or less trend, and these last four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +16

This is a classic situation where BYU comes into this game way overvalued off back-to-back blowout victories.  BYU beat Santa Clara 81-46 on the road followed by San Francisco 99-68 on the road.  Obviously, after those two performances, the betting public is all over them and we have an inflated line as a result.

Pepperdine is a team that can hang with BYU.  The Waves have gone 9-5 this season with all nine of their victories coming by 8 points or more, and eight of those by double-digits.  However, it is how close all of their losses have been that really intrigues me.

The Waves have suffered five losses this season all by 11 points or less.  They lost by 11 at Iowa, by 7 at Arizona State, by 2 to Richmond on a neutral court, by 2 to IUPUI at home, and by 9 at home to St. Mary's.  So, they have not lost a game by more than 11 points this season.

These teams played twice last year in a couple of competitive games.  Pepperdine beat BYU 80-74 as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Waves also covered as 16.5-point dogs in a 72-84 loss at BYU.  With three starters back from that team, the Waves certainly have a good chance to keep this game competitive as well.

Pepperdine is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Waves are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cougars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -8

The SMU Mustangs are one of the better teams in the country that not too many know about.  They returned three starters from a team that should have made the NCAA Tournament last year, but got snubbed.

SMU is off to a 10-4 start this season.  Its four losses have all come against great competition in Gonzaga, Indiana, Arkansas and Cincinnati with three of those coming on the road.  It will return home hungry for a win following a 50-56 loss at Cincinnati last time out.

Memphis is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Josh Pastner's squad returned two starters this year and has had some extremely shaky performances during its 8-5 start.  Its eight wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Indiana State, Bradley, NC Central, USC Upstate, Oral Robers, Western Illinois and Houston.

So, as you can see, the Tigers have not beaten anybody of any relevance.  Their five losses have all come by 8 points or more.  They lost to Wichita State by 15 on a neutral court, lost to Baylor by 24 on a neutral court, lost to SF Austin by 12 at home, lost by Oklahoma State by 18 at home, and lost to Tulane by 8 at home.

SMU is 9-1 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 15.1 points per game.  The Mustangs are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to SMU.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Mustangs.  Take SMU Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +15

The Duke Blue Devils come into this game way overvalued due to their perfect 13-0 record and their No. 2 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that they cannot live up to entering ACC play, and they should not be laying 15 points on the road to Wake Forest tonight.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under former Kansas star Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons got off to a very shaky start, but I love the way they are playing here of late, even against some quality competition.

Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 50-63 loss to Florida as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Deacons then beat Bucknell 60-53 at home, Richmond 65-63 on the road, and Princeton 80-66 at home.

However, it was the most recent showing that has me high on the Demon Deacons.  They only lost 76-85 at home to Louisville as 12.5-point underdogs.  They show 52.8% against the Cardinals, who like Duke, are a highly ranked team and one of the best in the country.

Wake Forest has played Duke extremely tough at home in recent years.  Indeed, the Demon Deacons are 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Blue Devils.  They won 82-72 last year as 12.5-point underdogs, lost 70-75 as 13.5-point dogs in 2013, and lost 71-79 as 12-point dogs in 2011.  They always bring their best effort when facing Duke at home.

The home team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Duke is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine vs. ACC foes.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Wake Forest.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Davidson +10

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  That couldn't be more evident than by their 7-2 ATS record in lined games.  Once again, this team is not getting the respect they deserve as 10-point underdogs to VCU.

Obviously, the betting public knows all about VCU because it made a Final Four appearance a few years back.  That kind of thing sticks with the betting public and keeps the Rams overvalued for years.  They have gone just 6-7 ATS this season and are laying too many points once again tonight.

Davidson is 10-2 this season.  Its two losses have come against two of the best teams in the country.  It lost 72-90 at North Carolina as 13.5-point underdogs, and 72-83 at Virginia as 18-point dogs.  That loss to the Cavaliers was pretty impressive.

It also gives these teams a common opponent.  VCU lost at home to Virginia by a final of 57-74 despite being 1.5-point favorites in that contest.  The Rams have won six straight games since that defeat, but mostly against soft competition.  That six-game winning streak has them overvalued as well.

The Wildcats are a sensational 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  VCU is 0-7 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make at least 72% of their attempts over the last three seasons.  Davidson is 12-1 ATS off two straight games where it had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Davidson is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Davidson Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers represent my favorite play in the Big Ten for the month of January.  They are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes Tuesday.

The Golden Gophers come into this game highly motivated for a victory so they do not drop to 0-3 in the Big Ten.  That's because they are 0-2 with road losses at Purdue (68-72, OT) and at Maryland (58-70). 

This will be their first Big Ten home game.  That's going to make a huge difference for the Golden Gophers because they are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, and 5-1 ATS, outscoring teams by an average of 27.4 points per game.  All four of their losses this year have come on the road.

Ohio State (12-3) has done almost all of its damage at home this year, going 12-1 at home compared to 0-2 on the road.  The Buckeyes did lose to Iowa 65-71 at home in their Big Ten opener, but bounced back with a 77-61 home win over Illinois last time out.  That was their best win of the season as they have beaten up on a very soft schedule to this point.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  The home team dominated both meetings last year.  Ohio State won 64-46 at home, while Minnesota won 63-53 at home for a pair of double-digit victories.

The Gophers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 home games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Buckeyes are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Big Ten games.  The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Gophers.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* ACC Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech +10

The Florida State Seminoles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as double-digit favorites in this game against Virginia Tech.  I'll gladly take the points in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Buzz Williams was one of the best coaching hires of the offseason.  He did big things at Marquette in turning that program around before coming over to Virginia Tech.  He has shown over the years how to get the best out of his teams.

Williams has done a good job with this team in leading the Hokies to an 8-6 record.  This team is much better than an 8-6 squad because four of their six losses have come by 3 points or less, or by a combined 9 points.  That's how close this is to being a 12-2 squad right now.

That includes a 66-68 loss to Syracuse on Saturday as 9.5-point underdogs.  Obviously, if the Hokies can play with a team like Syracuse, they can certainly play with Florida State, which also boasts an identical 8-6 record this season.

Florida State suffered a huge blow when it lost its best player in Aaron Thomas for the season due to eligibility issues.  The Seminoles have lost to the likes of Northeastern,  Providence (by 24), UMass, Nebraska, Notre Dame (by 20) and Mississippi State this season.

The reason the Seminoles are getting so much respect from oddsmakers is because they beat Florida 65-63 as 7-point home underdogs on December 30th.  That was a good win, but Florida is down this season, and that game is always played closer to the vest between these in-state rivals.  Anything can happen when they get together.

There are a few performances at home by the Seminoles this year that show they are extremely vulnerable.  They only beat The Citadel 66-55 as 20-point favorites, beat Charleston Southern 58-47 in a game that didn't even have a line, and beat Stetson 63-59 in another unlined game.  They also lost to Northeastern 73-76 as 9.5-point home favorites.

Florida State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 65 or fewer points in four straight games.  FSU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC foes.  Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +10.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are showing great value as double-digit underdogs to the Iowa Hawkeyes Monday.  After winning 11 of their final 14 regular season games last year, the Huskers went to the NCAA Tournament for the first time ssince 1998.

They returned four starters from that team with big expectations this year.  Obviously, they are not happy with their 8-5 start up to this point, but because they have underachieved they are clearly undervalued entering conference play.  All five of their losses have come by 10 points or less, too.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have also underachieved from their lofty preseason expectations.  They are just 10-4 right now, but they are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their 71-65 upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten opener.  This is a team that has suffered three of four losses by 12 points or more.

This has been a very closely-contested series since Nebraska joined the Big 12.  In fact, four of the five meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less with Nebraska winning two of them in upsets.  This may be the best team Nebraska has had yet, too.

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a conference loss.  Iowa is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Iowa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Big Ten foes.  The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Nebraska Monday.

20* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +8

The No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country in 2014-15.  They have opened 14-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral court to Providence (74-75) by a single point.

The Fighting Irish returned four starters from last season, including Jerian Grant, who missed all but the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  He was their best player last year as he averaged 19.0 points and 6.2 assists per game before getting hurt.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 17.9 points and 6.2 assists.  Zach Auguste (14.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg) combine with Grant to form one of the best starting lineups in the nation.

North Carolina has proven to be vulnerable this year against some of the better teams that it has faced.  It already has three losses on the year.  It lost at Kentucky 70-84, at home to Iowa 55-60, and on a neutral court to Butler 66-74.  It has no business laying this many points to a better Notre Dame squad.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Notre Dame Monday.

15* Pac-12 Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +12

The 10th-ranked Utah Utes are off to a great 11-2 start this season.  However, with this start comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are clearly overvalued here as 12-point favorites against the UCLA Bruins tonight.

UCLA (8-6) has taken a step back from last year.  In fact, it is mired in a four-game losing streak, and it has failed to cover the spread in six straight coming in.  That obviously has the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bruins, which is why they are showing such great value here as it's highly unlikely that they fail to cover a 7th straight.

A closer look at their losing streak reveals some elite competition.  They lost at home to Gonzaga, on a neutral court to Kentucky, and on the road to both Alabama (50-56) and Colorado (56-62) by 6 points each.  They were an underdog in all four games, so they were expected to lose each.

The Utes are a tired team right now.  This will be their 3rd game in 6 days, which is very rare for college teams.  Meanwhile, this will be UCLA's 2nd game in the last 7 days, so it will be well-rested and ready to go.  Not to mention the Bruins will be more motivated for a win today than they have been all season as they try and end this rare four-game skid.

Plays on an underdog (UCLA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in January games are 116-67 (63.4%) ATS since 1997.  UCLA has won three of its last four meetings with Utah with its lone loss coming by 5 points at Utah last season.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* ACC Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Florida) +8

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15 under veteran head coach Jim Larranaga.  They are off to a 10-3 start that has included wins over Florida, Charlotte (twice) and Illinois among others.

I believe the Hurricanes coming into their ACC opener with Virginia undervalued because they let their guard down here of late.  They have lost three of their last five games, but were able to get back on track with a 67-40 beat down of College of Charleston as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  Look for them to build off of that performance at home here.

Virginia enters the ACC opener overvalued due to its perfect 12-0 start that has earned it the No. 3 ranking in the country.  Obviously, with an unbeaten start and a No. 3 ranking come expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  These expectations are just very tough to live up to with the Cavaliers laying eight points on the road to Miami.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  In fact, Virginia is 0-6 all-time at Miami having never won there.  While the Cavaliers may end that trend, they're not going to do so in blowout fashion.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +17.5

USC came into this season undervalued after going just 2-16 in Pac-12 play in Jamie Enfield's first season on the job last year.  Remember, Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 two years ago, and he has a very talented freshman class leading the way at USC in 2014-15 as he's starting to get his players in place.

The Trojans are off to a respectable 8-4 start this season entering conference play while going 7-5 ATS in the process.  Three of their four losses have come by 12 points or less as they have only been beaten by more than 17.5 points one time, which is the spread for this game against Utah.

What really stood out to me about USC's 12 games up to this point is that it they have actually played their best two games in their only two true road games.  The Trojans beat New Mexico 66-54 as 9-point road underdogs, and they also beat Boston College 75-71 as 7-point road dogs.  That's a great sign heading into this game.

Utah is a team I had circled as undervalued coming into 2014-15.  It barely missed the NCAA Tournament last year and lost a lot of close games.  Well, it clearly has been undervalued up to this point as it has gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.

However, I believe it's now time to fade the Utes as they are overvalued entering conference play after this fast start.  They are also currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country, and with a Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to.

Utah did beat USC 84-66 at home and 79-71 on the road last year.  That 18-point home win is a little concerning, but not when you consider that there's no question the Trojans are vastly improved over a year ago.  Utah is also slightly improved, but not as much as the Trojans are, so they should be able to stay within 17.5 this time around.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (allowing less than 40%), dominant rebounding team (at least plus-6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

USC is 7-0 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons.  It is actually beating these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  Utah does play at a very slow pace, which works in our favor here as it will be tough for the Utes to win by 18 or more because of it.  Also, the Utes are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points.  Take USC Friday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +19

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value today as 19-point underdogs to the Wisconsin Badgers in their Big Ten opener.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season and just aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today.

Penn State is a legitimate NCAA tournament contender with four starters back from last year and it's 12-1 start.  It's only loss came in overtime to a very good Charlotte team by a final of 97-106 earlier this season.  It has reeled off 10 straight wins since.

Wisconsin is way overvalued here due to its 12-1 start and its No. 4 national ranking.  The Badgers are certainly one of the better teams in the country, but the Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Badgers are considered the best team in the conference.

Wisconsin hasn't exactly blown out the opposition this year when facing quality teams such as Penn State.  It is 3-1 against the likes of Georgetown (68-65), Oklahoma (69-56), Duke (70-80) and California (68-56), not beating any of those teams by more than 13 points.

What I really love about this play as well is the fact that the Nittany Lions will be the more prepared team.  They last played on December 22nd in a 69-49 home win over Dartmouth, so they have had over a week to get ready for Wisconsin.  The Badgers last played on December 28th in a 68-56 home win over Buffalo, so they have only had two days to prepare for Penn State.

Penn State has played Wisconsin very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.  As a result, Penn State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin since 2010.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams.  I look for them to run away with this one.

The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines.  Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.

I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either.  It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.

That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents.  Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses.  Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.

This has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois.  Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.

Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.  Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7

The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year.  They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well.  Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.

Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule.  Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa.  Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.

The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3).  That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent.  Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past.  Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State.  They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years.  In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.

Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24

This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State.  TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.

TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already.  However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.

This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs.  This is a huge lookahead spot for them.  They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game.  As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.

Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State.  However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively. 

Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points.  That includes their last two games against some very good competition.  They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs.  They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.

Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road.  The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.

TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State.  Take Tennessee State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5

I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season.  I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.

So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times.  However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them. 

I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out.  It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game.  They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.

Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one.  The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year.  They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year.  Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.

I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses.  They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs.  They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss.  Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me.  Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.

South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game.  UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court.  The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years.  Bet South Dakota State Sunday.

15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6

No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday.  This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire.  I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

This line has gotten out of control.  It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move.  The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.

Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule.  Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court.  This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.

Louisville is the real deal this year.  It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more.  That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74).  Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.

These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament.  That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.

Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games.  I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests. 

They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.  I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.

To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers.  Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.

George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado.  This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg).  The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced.  Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio.  They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.

The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes.  Take Colorado Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on UConn -7

The defending champion UConn Huskies have not gotten off to the start that they wanted at 4-4.  Due to this poor start, they are undervalued at this point of the season.  They certainly aren't as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate.

UConn has lost two games on buzzer-beating three points against Texas (54-55) and Yale (44-45).  Its other two losses came against two of the better teams in the country in West Virginia (68-78) and Duke (66-56).

I have been impressed with the Huskies in a couple of their wins with a 65-57 win over College of Charleston and a 75-64 triumph over Dayton, both on neutral courts.  While this game against Columbia is technically on a neutral court, there's no question the Huskies will have the home-court advantage since it's being played in Bridgeport, CT.

Columbia is a team that comes in overvalued due to its 6-3 start and its five returning starters.  Well, it lost one of those starters to a season-ending foot injury, and that was last year's leading scorer in Alex Rosenberg (16.0 ppg).

The Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they played Kentucky tough in a 10-point road loss as 26-point underdogs.  Well, that was the only quality opponent they have faced this season.  They have lost to both Stony Brook and Loyola-MD, while their six wins have come against Wagner, Lehigh, Farleigh Dickinsion, American, Bucknell and Hofstra.

The Huskies are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight off their slow start and their 10-point loss to Duke on December 18th.  Columbia last played on December 20th and will only have one day to prepare for UConn.  The Huskies have a big edge in rest and preparation coming into this one as a result.

UConn is 10-1 ATS after playing its last game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two years.  Columbia is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win.  UConn is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.  Take UConn Monday.

20* Harvard/Virginia CBB Sunday Early Riser on Harvard +10

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home before reeling off three straight double-digits victories over Northeastern (60-46), Vermont (64-52) and Boston (70-56).

Saunders (20.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) has proven to be one of the best players in the entire country this year.  Plus, the team has a ton of balance.  Chambers (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg) and Moundou-Missi (9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg) are the other two returning starters players playing well.  Corbin Miller (8.5 ppg) and Jonah Travis (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have also offered key contributions.

Virginia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  Due to its 10-0 start that has included a 6-2 ATS record in lined games, the betting public is quick to jump on the Cavaliers.  Yes, they won the ACC last year and are still a very talented team this year with what they have back, but they should not be laying 10 points to a Harvard team that is one of the best that they have faced all season.

This is an excellent spot for the Crimson as well.  They just finished up finals, so their minds will be free and clear.  Throw in the fact that their last game was on December 8th 13 days ago, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on the court.  So, they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for Virginia, which is a huge advantage.  They'll also be highly motivated to face at Top 25 team.

Virginia, on the other hand, has not had hardly any time at all to prepare for Harvard.  It last played on Thursday, December 18th in a 70-54 home win over Cleveland State as a 17-point favorite.  It has only had two days to prepare for Harvard, which is a massive disadvantage considering the Crimson have had two weeks.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two teams who don't shoot many 3 point shots (

15* CBB Saturday Night UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +2.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-1 with their only loss coming in double-overtime to VCU on the road by a final of 87-93 last time out as 7-point underdogs.  That was not a bad loss at all as VCU is one of the better teams in the country.  I have no doubt that UNI is the better team in this one and will pull off the upset over Iowa.

The Hawkeyes just have not impressed me at all this year.  They are off to an 8-3 start, and while it has come against a decently tough schedule, their three losses just stand out like a sore thumb.  Especially their 57-71 loss to Texas at Madison Square Garden and their 75-90 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  Their only good win came against North Carolina, which shot 27.9% in the loss to essentially hand the Hawkeyes the win.

UNI has played Iowa very tough through the years, and 2014 will be no exception.  The Panthers and Hawkeyes have actually split their last eight meetings with the Panthers winning four and the Hawkeyes winning four.  Well, this may be the best team UNI has had in the history of its program.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  UNI is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  These five trends combined for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Villanova FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Syracuse +12

While it's clear that Syracuse is not as dominant as it has been in year's past, getting 12 points here with the Orange is simply a gift from the oddsmakers.  They are clearly way undervalued right now after their slow start to the season, while Villanova is way overvalued.

The Orange are just 6-3 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point already.  They lost to California, Michigan and St. John's, but beat Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  You can bet that head coach Jim Boeheim is using this slow start as a great teaching point for his players, and this young squad is only going to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.

Villanova is clearly one of the best teams in the country.  I have even backed the Wildcats this season on a couple of occasions.  However, with a 10-0 start that includes a 7-1-1 ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  The betting public is all over the Wildcats after five straight covers, and this number has been set so high that it's now time to fade them.

Syracuse has owned Villanova as the Wildcats have consistently struggled against the Orange's size in recent history.  The Orange are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Wildcats with their only loss coming in overtime (75-71) on the road last year.  The Wildcats may win this game, but it's not going to be by double-digits.

Plays against a favorite (VILLANOVA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 97-56 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +14

The Charlotte 49ers should not be catching 14 points against Georgetown today.  With four returning starters and off to a solid 6-4 start, the 49ers have shown me enough to know that they can easily stay within this spread and give the Hoyas a run for their money.

Charlotte has been highly competitive all season.  It has beaten some good teams like Penn State and South Carolina.  Three of its four losses came by single-digits against some very good competition.  It did lose to Miami 58-77, but also lost to Miami 74-77, at Davidson (86-91) and on a neutral court against George Washington (70-78).

Georgetown is way overvalued here.  While the Hoyas are improved this season, they are off to just a 6-3 start this year.  Yes, their three losses have come to very good teams in Wisconsin, Butler and Kansas, but their only good win came against a down Florida team by a single point (66-65).  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 78-62 at home and Robert Morris 80-66 at home.  They aren't going to blow out these 49ers by more than 14 points today.

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents.  The Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska-Omaha -3.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets along the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, at home against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.1 rpg)) and Patterson (13.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.0 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thurman (10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and White (7.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

The Mavericks have played a brutal schedule this year with six road games against only three home games and have done a very good job of getting to 4-5 with this gauntlet.  They are just 1-5 on the road, but 3-0 at home where they are outscoring teams by a whopping 25.4 points per game.

Northern Colorado has been terrible on the road and great at home as well.  It is 4-0 at home with its four wins coming against some terrible teams in Black Hills State, Colorado Christian, Stetson and Florida A&M.  It is 0-4 on the road where it is getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points per game.  It lost at New Mexico State 65-86 and at Colorado 68-93.

Nebraska-Omaha is a perfect 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Northern Colorado is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Wednesday.

15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year.  That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite.  Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.

These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite.  That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's.  Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.

Alabam  is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18

This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford.  I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.

Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning.  It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game.  It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.

The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year.  Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's.  They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).

Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS.  Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare.  I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.

They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs.  They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court.  They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Samford Sunday.