25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State +1

The Oklahoma State Cowboys represent my strongest play of the entire 2013-14 college basketball season Saturday. I fully expect them to win today with ease over the Kansas Jayhawks, and thus they have earned 25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR status.

Oklahoma State just got back its best player in Marcus Smart (17.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.7 apg, 2.6 spg) two games ago from a 3-game suspension. To no surprise, the Cowboys have played two of their best games of the season, beating Texas Tech (84-62) at home and TCU (76-54) on the road.

The Cowboys are still in desperate need of victories to get into the NCAA Tournament as they are clearly a bubble team at this point. That will have them motivated, as will the fact that they lost 78-80 at Kansas on January 18 in their first meeting of the season despite getting out-shot 39.4% to 55.8%. It's amazing they were able to hang tough given those percentages, and I look for them to be flip-flopped in Stillwater this time around.

Kansas is in a massive letdown spot tonight. It is coming off an 83-75 home victory over Oklahoma to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title for a 10th straight season. Having accomplished that monumental feat, I look for this young Jayhawks' team to lose focus and fail to show up today in Stillwater.

The last three meetings between these teams have all been decided by 5 points or less, so the Cowboys clearly have proven they can hang tough with the Jayhawks. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, winning by 22.8 points per game in this spot. Bet the Cowboys Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +9

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-11) are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They are in desperate need of a big victory, and they have a chance to get that Saturday at Michigan (20-7).

Minnesota will be out for revenge from its 60-63 home loss to Michigan on January 2. It shot just 39.6% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range to essentially give the game away. However, I like the fact that the Gophers outrebounded the Wolverines 38-24 for the game, and I look for them to dominate the glass again this time around, which will keep them in it.

I'm really, really not sold on Michigan. This team has bad losses against Iowa (67-85), Indiana (52-63) and Wisconsin (62-75) in three of its last seven games overall. It also needed overtime to beat Purdue (77-76) on Wednesday. Minnesota is coming off a solid victory against Iowa (95-89) on Tuesday in a must-win situation, giving it confidence coming into this contest.

Minnesota is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games after a game where it made 60% of its shots or better. It is coming back to win in this spot 77.4 to 65.7, or by an average of 11.7 points per game. The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Golden Gophers. Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons get the call Saturday as a mere 2-point home favorite over the Boston College Eagles. This is an absolute gift from the books, and thus let's take advantage.

Wake Forest has been dominant at home this season, going 13-3 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game. Boston College has been atrocious on the road, going 2-10 in games away from home. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won three straight and seven of the past eight meetings.

Boston College (7-21) made its season by going into Syracuse and winning 62-59 on February 19, handing the Orange their first loss of the season. I expected the Eagles to pack it in after that huge win, and that has been the case. They have failed to cover the past two in a 42-69 loss at Miami, and a 59-66 home loss to Pitt.

The Demon Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Roll with Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners (20-8) should be a much heavier home favorite over the Texas Longhorns (21-7) this afternoon. The books have given us a gift here folks, and it's time to pounce.

Oklahoma comes in motivated off a 75-83 loss at Kansas on Monday, meaning that it has had four days off to rest and prepare to bounce back. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a big 74-69 win over Baylor on Wednesday, meaning that it has only had two days to rest and prepare for Oklahoma. Those two days in the Sooners' favor give them a big advantage.

The Sooners already beat the Longhorns 88-85 on the road in their first meeting of the season on January 4. They won despite getting out-shot 42.9% to 50.8%, but the difference was their 39-28 rebounding advantage, including a 14-6 edge on the offensive boards. I look for them to shore up the defense, while also continuing to dominate the class in the rematch.

Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Texas is 0-6 ATS in road games after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS after two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the home team. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Missouri State/Wichita State ESPN No-Brainer on Missouri State +17.5

Wichita State (30-0) goes for a perfect regular season today when it hosts Missouri State (19-10) in their regular season finale. That is a ton of pressure, and I look for it to affect the quality of play for the Shockers, and for this game to go down to the wire because of it.

Missouri State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. You could certainly argue that the Bears gave the Shockers their stiffest test of the season to this point. They lost 69-72 as a 9.5-point home under on January 11 in their first meeting of the season.

Obviously, the Bears have confidence that they can beat the Shockers after that performance. They held Wichita State to just 35.3% shooting from the field and 22.7% from 3-point range. However, the Shockers were able to squeak out the win due to shooting a whopping 40 free throws, making 31 of them. They aren't going to get to the line that many times again.

Missouri State is 17-6 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponents over the last two seasons. The Bears are 26-11 ATS in conference games over the past two seasons. The Shockers are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet Missouri State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -3

The Pittsburgh Panthers are showing tremendous value as a mere 3-point favorite at Notre Dame today. I'll take advantage and back them at an excellent price in a game I expect them to run away with by double-digits.

Pittsburgh (21-7) is undervalued right now due to having lost three of its last four games coming in. Those losses came against potentially three NCAA Tournament teams in Syracuse, UNC & Florida State, and all three came by 5 points or less, so they were simply unfortunate in close games.

Now, the Panthers get to face a Notre Dame (15-14) team that is clearly in rebuilding mode. The Fighting Irish have gone just 6-10 SU & 5-11 ATS in ACC play this season to really get exposed. They have nothing to play for at this point in the season, while the Panthers will be determined after losing three of their past four.

The Fighting Irish are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games. Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS after two straight games committing 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (win percentage from 60% to 80%) this season. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +3.5

The Providence Friars (18-10) are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. That's why I look for them to be highly motivated tonight when they take on Seton Hall (14-14), especially considering the Pirates beat them 81-80 in their first meeting of the season.

Providence is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. This team is a legitimate threat to make a run in the big dance once they get there due their veteran presence with four returning starters, led by stud point guard Bryce Cotton (21.5 ppg, 5.9 apg), who is the heart and soul of this team. The Friars have four players averaging at least 12.1 points per game.

This is a tough time of year for Seton Hall. It is coming off back-to-back losses to Creighton and DePaul to assure that it will not be going to the big dance unless it wins the Big East Tournament. That means that the Friars could find it hard to be motivated over their final three regular season games, and thus fade material.

Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two years. Seton Hall is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 home games. The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Roll with Providence Friday.

15* Iowa/Indiana ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa -4

I had the Iowa Hawkeyes selected as a premium pick in the game that got postponed against Indiana a week ago. I am going to back the Hawkeyes again tonight as this is the make-up game with the Hoosiers, and the line is very similar.

I really like this spot for Iowa (19-8), which has lost back-to-back games for the first time all season, so it will be highly motivated for a win here tonight. It is coming off an 89-95 loss at Minnesota as the Gophers could not miss, shooting 61.2% from the field, and 57.9% from 3-point range. It was actually an impressive 6-point loss given those shooting numbers.

Indiana (15-12) is having a lost season as it rebuilds. It has gone just 5-9 in Big Ten play, including 1-4 in its last five conference games overall to play itself out of the NCAA Tournament. The Hoosiers realize their only chance to make the big dance now is to win the conference tournament, and thus I look for them to struggle to find a reason to be motivated for the rest of the regular year, especially off a deflating 58-69 loss at Wisconsin where they blew a 10-point halftime lead.

Iowa is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 76.0 to 60.6 in this spot, or by an average of 15.4 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games overall, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten foes. Take Iowa Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -10.5

The Virginia Commonwealth Rams (20-7) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they take on Fordham (9-16). They have lost back-to-back games for the first time all season, falling against two of the best teams in the conference in Saint Louis (62-64) and UMass (75-80) by a combined 7 points, both on the road.

Their NCAA Tournament hopes aren't in too big of jeopardy, but another loss and they will be. I like their chances of getting back on track against Fordham in blowout fashion tonight. VCU already beat Fordham 76-60 at home on January 29 despite shooting just 33.8% from the field. I expect a much better shooting effort, and a similar blowout.

This is a Fordham team that has lost 12 of its last 14 games overall, including four straight all by 11 points or more to George Washington (67-93), St. Bonaventure (65-76), Richmond (70-82) and St. Joseph's (72-87). It appears that this team has packed it in at this point as evidenced by the four straight double-digits losses.

Fordham is 28-60-3 ATS in its last 91 games following an ATS loss. Fordham is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%. Fordham is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Roll with VCU Thursday.

15* Stanford/ASU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State -1.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils (19-8) are getting no love tonight as only a 1.5-point home favorite over the Stanford Cardinal (18-8). I'll gladly take advantage and back this bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament in a game that it really needs to boost its r

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -4

This is a very generous line to be able to back the Texas Longhorns (20-7) at home tonight as only a 4-point favorite over Baylor. That's especially the case when you consider the Longhorns already beat the Bears 74-60 on the road in their first meeting of the season despite shooting 18.2% from 3-point range and 58.8% from the free throw line.

I would usually tend to back the team playing with revenge in the second meeting, but not in this case. That's because I believe there is a ton of value here with the Longhorns because they have not played well in their last two games, getting beaten badly at Iowa State and at Kansas. Those two losses will have them coming back focused and determined for a win at home tonight.

Baylor (18-9) comes in overvalued due to having won four straight games to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. However, you have to consider that their two road wins came against Big 12 bottom feeders in TCU and West Virginia, and their two home wins came against teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma State that have not been very good on the road.

Texas is 28-9 straight up in all meetings with Baylor since 1997, including 13-3 straight up in all home meetings over this span. The Longhorns are 14-2 at home this season, which includes blowout wins over WVU (88-71), Oklahoma State (87-68), Kansas (81-69) and Iowa State (86-76) in Big 12 play. Bet Texas Wednesday.

15* California/Arizona ESPN 2 No-Brainer on California +12.5

The books are once again overvaluing the Arizona Wildcats, which has been a common theme here in the second half of the season after their torrid start. The result has been a 3-6 ATS mark in their last nine games overall, which has coincided with the loss of forward Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) for the remainder of the season.

California (18-9) is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and thus it needs this victory. It has played some of its best basketball on the road this season, going 5-4 in true road games with wins over the likes of Stanford (69-62), Oregon (96-83), Oregon State (88-83), Washington State (80-76) and Washington (72-59) within the Pac-12.

The Bears handed the Wildcats one of their two losses with a 60-58 home victory as a 6-point dog back on February 1st. Sure, the Wildcats will be in revenge mode, but asking them to win by 13-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider that the last five meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less, including four of those by 4 points or fewer.

Also, California has not lost to Arizona by more than 10 points in any of the last 15 meetings in this series. That makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bears dating back to 2006 pertaining to tonight's spread of 12.5 points. I'll take all the points I game get in this closely-contested rivalry. Take California Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (20-7) will be more motivated for a victory tonight than at any other point in the season. They have lost three straight games all by 5 points or less, and you can bet that head coach Jamie Dixon has been letting his players know about it. I look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

They'll have no problem taking care of hapless Boston College (7-20), which will pack it in now that it has won its signature game. It handed an uninspired Syracuse team its first loss last Wednesday, then proceeded to get annihilated 42-69 at Miami on Saturday. The Eagles have no reason to show up tonight, either.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Boston College dating back to 1997. The Panthers have won five straight in this series all by 9 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games when playing a bad team (win percentage between 20% & 40%) after 15-plus games. Boston College is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 1-8 ATS in all home games this season. Roll with Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2.5

This will be the final home game for the Evansville Purple Aces. Despite being just 11-18 on the season, I look for them to show a ton of pride tonight and to send out their underrated home fans with one final victory. I look for that pride to show considering they will be trying to avenge one of their worst losses of the season in a 66-94 setback at Drake on January 1.

Evansville has improved greatly as the season has progressed. While it has lost three of its last four games, two came by exactly five points at Indiana State (54-59) and versus Southern Illinois (56-61). The other was a home loss to unbeaten Wichita State (68-84) in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Shockers simply pulled away late.

Drake is coming off a 54-83 road loss at Wichita State, which will have it suffering a hangover effect after playing the top team in the conference. The Bulldogs won't even want to show up tonight, especially having already throttled the Purple Aces once this season. They have seemed to pack it in, losing five of their last seven games overall with their lone victories coming at home during this stretch.

Evansville is a respectable 9-7 at home this season, while Drake is just 4-8 in true road games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late. The home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings. The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons. Drake is 1-7 ATS after a game where it made 78% of its free throws or better this season. Take Evansville Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -6

The St. John's Red Storm have been a huge money maker for me over the last several weeks. I'm going to continue to ride them as I believe they are undervalued tonight as only a 6-point home favorite over Xavier. This one has blowout written all over it.

St. John's (18-10) has gone 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall to put itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Its two losses during this stretch came at Creighton (60-63) as a 12.5-point dog, and at Villanova (54-57) as an 8.5-point dog. Those two teams are considered the top two in the Big East.

Xavier has been falling apart toward the end of the season. It has gone 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall to nearly play itself out of the NCAA Tournament. ALL SIX of those losses have come by 8 points or more, including road losses to Providence (72-81), Villanova (58-81), Marquette (72-81) and Georgetown (52-74).

St. John's has not only been winning, but it has been destroying opponents. Six of its last nine wins have come by double-digits, including home victories over Butler (77-52), Georgetown (82-60) and Marquette (74-59). The Red Storm are now 13-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game. They'll be out for revenge from a 60-70 loss at Xavier in their conference opener back on December 31 when they weren't playing well.

The Red Storm are 8-1 ATS off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds this season. The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of better than 60%. Xavier is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. St. John's is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Red Storm are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents. Bet St. John's Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10.5

The Kansas Jayhawks (21-6) are way overvalued heading into this showdown with the Oklahoma Sooners (20-7). I look for this game to go right down to the wire as the Sooners give the Jayhawks a run for their money, which is something that should come as no surprise considering how competitive they've been all year.

Oklahoma is one of the most underrated teams in the country. All seven of its losses have come by 11 points or less, and six of those came by 8 points or fewer. Even the 11-point loss came against one of the best teams in the land in Michigan State as an 11.5-point dog. The Sooners have had a chance to win in every game they have played.

The reason Kansas is overvalued tonight is that it is coming off an emphatic 85-54 victory over Texas on Saturday. It was out for revenge after losing at Texas earlier this season, so obviously it had 100% focus coming in. Off such a big win, and having already beaten Oklahoma 90-83 on the road this year, the Jayhawks are in a letdown spot tonight.

The Jayhawks shot 54.7% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in that first meeting with the Sooners as everything went their way. Don't expect it to happen again. Plus, Kansas was highly motivated in that game as it was just coming off a home loss to San Diego State. It won't be nearly as motivated this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS versus very good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. This will be the 4th game in 10 days for the Jayhawks, while this will only be the 2nd game in 9 days for the Sooners, giving them a huge edge in rest. Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in a week this season. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -11.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-10) cannot afford any more hiccups if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. That's why they should have 100% focus going onward, and you can expect them to put their best foot forward tonight against TCU, which will be enough to win this game in blowout fashion.

Oklahoma State just got back Marcus Smart from a 3-game suspension over the weekend. The result? How about a dominant 84-62 home victory over Texas Tech, which has given several of the best teams in the Big 12 fits this season. Smart (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.5 spg) had a solid game, posting 16 points, 10 assists and 6 steals in the win.

TCU (9-17) remains winless in Big 12 play, going 0-14 to this point while getting outscored by an average of 16.8 points per game. It hung tough with Iowa State at home Saturday, but ultimately lost 60-71 in deflating fashion. I look for the Horned Frogs to suffer a hangover from that defeat. Five straight and 10 of their 14 Big 12 losses this season have come by double-digits, including a 50-82 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

It's worth noting that TCU is expected to be without its second-best player in Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who sat out the Iowa State game Saturday with a knee injury. He is doubtful to return just two days later against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 20% & 40% over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS as a favorite over 10 or more points over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Oklahoma State Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence PK

The Providence Friars (17-10) are the definition of a bubble team when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. This team is one of the most underrated squads in the country with four starters back from last season, and one that deserves to get into the big dance if the season were to end today.

However, after losing four of their last five games overall, getting into the big dance has become a question mark. Those four losses came to St. John's, Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova, who all have a good shot at getting into the big dance, so it's not like they are getting beat by inferior competition.

Now, the Friars have an excellent chance to get back on track against Butler (12-14), which is just 2-12 in Big East play and clearly a team that is rebuilding since the loss of head coach Brad Stevens. The Bulldogs have lost five straight coming into this one, including a home loss to Xavier (50-64) and a road loss to St. John's (52-77) last time out.

Providence beat Butler 65-56 in the first meeting, outrebounding the Bulldogs 37-22 in the process. The Friars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Butler is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Providence Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans are going to be out for revenge from their 75-80 home loss to Michigan back on January 25 in their first meeting of the season. They were without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg) for that contest, but he's healthy now and ready to help his team get payback.

Michigan State has played its best basketball on the road this season. It is a sensational 8-1 straight up in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.7 points per game. That includes wins at Texas, Indiana and Iowa.

I knew Michigan would be overvalued toward the end of the season after a hot start to Big Ten play. That has been the case as it has lost three of its last five games all by double-digits to Indiana (52-63), Iowa (67-85) and Wisconsin (62-75). This team simply isn't that good.

The Spartans are 8-0 ATS versus teams who forced 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing a good team (win percentage between 60% & 80%) this season. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in all road games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Spartans. Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -5

The Oklahoma Sooners (19-7) are showing tremendous value as only a 5-point home favorite over Kansas State Saturday. They'll be out for revenge from a 66-72 loss at Kansas State on January 14 in their first meeting of the season.

I certainly like the Sooners' chances of getting payback in blowout fashion given how well they have played at home. They are 11-3 at home this season with wins over the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor.

Kansas State has been dominant at home, but just it is just 1-5 in true road games, including losses to Kansas (60-86), Iowa State (75-81), West Virginia (71-81) and Baylor (73-87) all by 6 points or more.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on LSU +11.5

The LSU Tigers (16-9) already beat the Kentucky Wildcats once this season with an 87-82 home victory on January 28. Sure, the Wildcats will be out for revenge, but the Tigers need this game more as they are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

This is simply a good matchup for LSU. Kentucky has been winning by dominating teams on the glass, but LSU doesn't allow it. The Wildcats are averaging 13 offensive rebounds per game and outrebounding opponents by 10 boards per game. The Tigers are averaging 12 offensive boards per contest and outrebounding foes by 5 boards per game.

LSU has played Kentucky very tough in each of their last three meetings. All three meetings were decided by single-digits with the Wildcats winning at home 60-51 and 75-70, while the Tigers obviously won at home 87-82 earlier this season. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.

LSU is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 games off a home win against a conference opponent. Kentucky is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 Saturday home games. The Wildcats are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kentucky. The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take LSU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +13

The Iowa State Cyclones just have a way of playing to the level of their competitive. I fully expect that to be the case this afternoon as they fail to cover this lofty spread against TCU Saturday.

Iowa State is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Nine of those 11 games were decided by 11 points or less, which just shows you how they have a knack of playing in close games no matter the competition.

One of the exceptions was an 84-69 home victory over TCU on February 8. That placed TCU in revenge mode just two weeks later at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, and they're hungry for their first Big 12 victory.

Iowa State is in a big letdown spot off a huge win over Texas on Tuesday. The Cyclones are 1-8 ATS versus good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better from the line this season. Iowa State is 1-10 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games. Roll with TCU Saturday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's +8.5

The St. John's Red Storm represent my strongest play in the Big East for the entire 2013-14 season. I'll gladly back them as a big underdog as this team continue to go under the radar against Villanova Saturday.

St. John's (18-9) has won nine of its last 10 games overall to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament. It is playing as well as anyone in the country, and its only loss during this stretch came at Creighton (60-63) as a 12.5-point dog on a last-second 3-pointer.

The Red Storm will be out for revenge from their 67-74 home loss to Villanova back on January 11. This is a completely different team since that defeat, and that will show on the court today.

St. John's is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +14

The North Carolina Tar Heels are in a massive letdown spot Saturday. They are coming off a win against their biggest rivals in Duke on Thursday, and it's only human nature for them to not show up two days later against an ACC bottom feeder.

Wake Forest (14-12) has lost six in a row heading into this one, and therefore is undervalued. UNC has won eight straight heading into this one, and therefore is overvalued. Wake has had three days off to prepare for this game.

The Demon Deacons beat the Tar Heels 73-67 at home earlier this season in their first meeting on January 5. I have no doubt they can stay within 14 points in the rematch, especially given the tough situation for UNC having to play its 3rd game in 4 days.

Roy Williams is 6-16 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite in all games he has coached. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. The Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in North Carolina. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Gonzaga/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -2.5

It's like night and day for the BYU Cougars home and away. If you just look at its 6-9 road record, you would think that this team isn't any good. But the Cougars are 18-10 on the season and looking to make the NCAA Tournament thanks to their home dominance.

Indeed, the Cougars are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per game. Their only loss came in overtime to Iowa State, which is currently ranked No. 17 in the country. BYU has had one of the best home-court advantages over the past decade and that continues to be true.

All four of Gonzaga's losses this season have come on the road. It has fallen to Memphis (54-60) and Portland (73-82) away from home since the turn of the calendar year. Given the importance of this game for the Cougars, I look for them to get it done at home. They also come in with confidence having won five of their last six, including two victories over a very good St. Mary's team both home and away.

Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in road games after two consecutive ATS covers over the last three seasons. BYU is 50-27 ATS in its last 77 home games after having won three of its last four games. The Cougars are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games off a win by 6 points or less. The home team is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Take BYU Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +14

The USC Trojans certainly haven't had the season they had hoped coming into the year. As a result, they are undervalued at this point of the season, and that shows with this line as they are a 14-point road dog to Stanford when they shouldn't be catching nearly this many points.

USC will be out for revenge from a 71-79 (OT) home loss to Stanford as a 6.5-point underdog. I like taking road teams in revenge mode that lost the first meeting at home if the price is right. Obviously, the Trojans took the Cardinal to OT to prove that they can hang, and I see no reason they can't take this one down to the wire as well.

With UCLA on deck Saturday, it's only human nature for Stanford to be looking ahead to that game. Also, USC is expected to get back second-leading scorer and top assist man Pe'Shon Howard (10.4 ppg, 4.3 apg) from a one-game absence due to disciplinary reasons. Having their floor general back will certainly benefit the Trojans offensively.

The last three meetings in this series were all within 2 points at the end of regulation, so this has been a closely-contested series. You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time that USC lost to Stanford by more than 12 points, which was a 50-65 road loss. That is a span of 15 meetings, and makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Trojans pertaining to tonight's spread of 14. Bet USC Thursday.

15* American Athletic PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +15

The Houston Cougars (12-13) are a much better team than their record would indicate this season. They have played some very good teams tough, including taking Cincinnati down to the wire in each of their two meetings this season. I was on the Cougars in both of those games as a big underdog.

I'll back the Cougars again in the role of the big dog tonight at SMU. They'll be out for revenge from a 68-75 home loss to the Mustangs back on January 26 in their first meeting of the season. At the very least, I expect them to stay within 15 points, though they'll likely have a chance to win it in the end.

After beating Cincinnati and earning a Top 25 ranking, SMU is currently overvalued. That showed last time out as it lost 64-71 at Temple as an 8-point favorite. This team is better than people gave them credit for coming into the season, but now that the betting public has been all over them of late, the Mustangs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

Houston is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. SMU is 1-9 ATS off two straight games where it attempted 50 or less shots over the last two years. Take Houston Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +15.5

The Northwestern Wildcats have played their best basketball on the road this season. I look for them to give the Ohio State Buckeyes a run for their money tonight as they continue playing their best ball away from home.

Indeed, the Wildcats have won three of their last four Big Ten road games outright. They won at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point dog, at Wisconsin (65-56) as a 17-point dog, at Minnesota (55-54) as a 10.5-point dog, while losing at Michigan State (70-85) as a 14-point dog in a game that was close until the end.

Northwestern has played Ohio State very tough throughout the years. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of the last nine meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer. The Wildcats have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Buckeyes.

This is just a great matchup for the Wildcats because both teams have below-average offenses but tremendous defense. I look for them to slug it out in a low-scoring, defensive battle. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +14.5

The Boston College Eagles have clearly not had the season they envisioned this year despite returning 96 percent of their scoring from last season. However, they have a chance to make their season by beating No. 1 Syracuse tonight, and they'll be giving it their all to do so.

The Eagles have been much more competitive of late, only once losing by more than 11 points in their last 11 games overall. That included a 59-69 home loss to Syracuse in their first meeting of the season, which means they'll be out for revenge here.

I have faded Syracuse with a ton of success lately. The Orange have been overvalued due to the fact that they are 25-0 and No. 1 in the country, and they simply cannot live up to these expectations. Now, with a massive game at Duke on deck Saturday, they'll be overlooking Boston College and looking ahead to that showdown. They won't bring the kind of effort it takes to win by 15-plus points tonight.

Boston College is a sensational 101-65 ATS in its last 166 road games overall. The Eagles are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Bet Boston College Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +17

The Auburn Tigers have been vastly improved this season. They have gone 12-11 overall to post a winning record to this point, and they come in playing their best basketball of the season.

Auburn has won four of its last six games overall with its only losses coming at LSU (80-87) and at home against Kentucky (56-64) during this stretch. It fell at home to Florida (61-68) as an 8-point underdog back on January 18 in their first meeting, which means the Tigers will be out for revenge.

Florida comes in overvalued due to recently moving up to No. 2 in the latest Top 25 poll. This is a massive letdown spot for the Gators, who are coming off their biggest win of the season with a victory at Kentucky on Saturday. That win likely wrapped up the SEC title for them, and having already beaten Auburn once this season, they won't show up with the kind of intensity it takes to beat the Tigers by more than 17 points tonight.

Auburn is 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-12 ATS after covering two of its last three against the spread over the last two years. The Gators are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games off seven or more consecutive wins. Bet Auburn Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -4.5

Iowa State (19-5) will be out for revenge Tuesday when it hosts Texas (20-5) at one of the most underrated home courts in all of college basketball. Hilton Coliseum will be rocking as it always is, and I look for these players to feed off of their home crowd like they have been all season.

The Cyclones did lose 76-86 at Texas on January 18, but that should come as no surprise considering the home team has won each of the last six meetings in this series. Iowa State topped Texas 82-62 at home last year as a 9-point favorite, and I fully expect another beat down tonight.

Iowa State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game. That includes impressive wins over the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Only Kansas was able to survive a trip to Ames this season, and the Jayhawks are clearly the best team in the Big 12.

Texas is 2-9 ATS after two consecutive ATS wins over the past two seasons. Iowa State is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games off a home win against a conference opponent. The Cyclones are 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Providence +5

The Providence Friars (17-9) are one of the most underrated and most improved teams in the country in 2014. They are primed to make the big dance this season, and a home win over Villanova tonight would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

Providence is going to be out for revenge from its worst loss of the season, a 61-91 road loss at Villanova on January 5. Everything went right for the Wildcats in that game as they shot 59.6% from the floor and 14-of-26 (55.3%) from the 3-point line. They clearly aren't going to shoot that well again on the road this time around.

Villanova is coming off a disheartening 80-101 loss at Creighton on Sunday, which likely cost them the Big East regular season title. That result could produce a hangover effect here, especially having already beaten Providence by 30 points, which will make it hard for them to get up for the Friars. Also, the Friars last played on Saturday, so they will have had an extra day of rest and preparation heading into this one, which is huge.

Providence is 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game. It has home wins over the likes of Georgetown (70-52), Creighton (81-68), Butler (65-56), Xavier (81-72) and DePaul (84-61) in Big East play alone. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the past seven meetings.

Villanova is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in 3 days over the last three seasons. The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by four-plus board per game over the last two seasons. The Friars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Providence Tuesday.

20* UNC/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +1.5

The Florida State Seminoles (15-10) are looking for a signature win to improve their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. That opportunity comes tonight as they welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels (17-7) to Tallahassee.

I've seen enough from this FSU team to realize that it is capable of beating anyone. It has beaten VCU (85-67) and UMass (60-55) on neutral courts, while losing tight road games to both Michigan (80-82) and Florida (66-67) by a combined three points. FSU is 8-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.

North Carolina comes into this game overvalued due to its six-game winning streak. Four of those six wins have come at home against a pretty soft schedule. It had lost four of five prior to this stretch. Off a big win over Pitt (75-71) Saturday, and with Duke on deck, this is a huge letdown/lookahead spot for the Tar Heels.

UNC is 13-30 ATS in its last 43 road games versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less after 15-plus games. The Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing with one or less days rest. The Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Florida State Monday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville +13

The Evansville Purple Aces will give the unbeaten Wichita State Shockers a run for their money Sunday. I'll gladly back them as a double-digit home underdog in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Remember, Evansville beat Wichita State TWICE last season. Their first meeting of '14 was decently close as the Shockers won 81-67 at home as a 19.5-point favorite. This was a 33-39 game at the half as the Purple Aces hung tough the entire way on the road.

At home this time around, I have no doubt they'll be able to stay within 13. They stayed within 14 on the road in the first meeting despite shooting just 10-of-18 (55.6%) from the line, while the Shockers shot 24-of-33 (72.7%) from the charity stripe. Clearly, Wichita State was getting the calls as home, but that won't be the case in the rematch on the road.

At 26-0 this season, Wichita State is one of only two unbeaten teams remaining in the country. Once a team wins so many games in a row, they start to become complacent. That's when it is time to fade them as they have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and oddsmakers. The Shockers struggled in a 78-67 home win over Southern Illinois as a 15-point favorite last time out, and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

Evansville is 14-2 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last three seasons. The Purple Aces are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Evansville is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last three years. The Purple Aces are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series, and 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings. These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing the home dog. Bet Evansville Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -4.5

Kansas State is in a massive letdown spot tonight. It is coming off a huge overtime loss to Kansas, its biggest rival, and a team that it never beats. It's only human nature for them to let down off such a big win.

Baylor still believes it can make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish to the season. It will have to nearly win out in Big 12 play, but it's doable. It is coming off a 91-58 win at TCU, and it has not given up on its season.

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Baylor is 74-49 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games since 1997. Take Baylor Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +14

The NC State Wolfpack will give the Syracuse Orange a run for their money today. As a result, I'll gladly take the big points in a game that I believe the Wolfpack will have a chance to win outright in the end.

Due to being one of the last unbeaten teams in the country, Syracuse (24-0) is way overvalued right now. It is also in a huge letdown spot off its last-second win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

NC State (16-8) is playing its best basketball of the season heading into this one. It has won five of its last six games overall to get back into contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

Syracuse is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds. NC State is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 road games after having won four or five of its last six games. Take NC State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5

Arkansas (15-9) will be in revenge mode today against LSU. It suffered one of its worse losses of the season in a 74-88 setback at LSU on February 1. Two weeks later, I like the Razorbacks to return the favor with a blowout home victory of their own.

Arkansas has been one of the best home teams in the country over the past couple seasons. It is 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game. Its only two losses came to Missouri and Florida by a combined 6 points.

LSU is just 2-5 in true road games this season. It has lost its last four road games to Ole Miss (74-88), Alabama (80-82), Georgia (78-91) and Texas A&M (73-83), who are all inferior teams to Arkansas.

The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings in this series with eight of those victories coming by 5 points or more dating back to 2010. It's clear that home-court advantage means a lot in this series. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles will be looking to avenge their 79-86 road loss at Xavier on January 9. As a short home favorite in the rematch, I look for the Golden Eagles to get their payback in blowout fashion at home this time around.

Marquette comes in playing its best basketball of the season with four wins in its last six games overall. Its two losses have come to red hot Villanova and St. John's teams, and that loss to the Wildcats came in overtime. It has beaten Providence, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Butler during this stretch.

Xavier has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in the country of late. It has gone just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. I've seen this team play a handful of times this year, and I've seen enough to know that they aren't that good. Marquette has simply fallen victim to a brutal schedule this year, but it will make a run at the big dance down the stretch.

Marquette is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game in this spot. Roll with Marquette Saturday.

25* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +16

The Houston Cougars will be out for revenge from their 60-61 home loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats as a 6.5-point underdog. I was on them in that game, and I'm all over the Cougars as a 16-point dog in the rematch on the road this time around.

Cincinnati has been overvalued for quite some time now due to its record and national ranking. That has been evident by the fact that it has gone just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall. It has only beaten one team by more than 11 points during this stretch.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-38 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS after playing a game as a road dog over the last two years. Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Okie State ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +3

The Oklahoma Sooners should not be a dog today to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Sure, the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 76-88 loss at Oklahoma on January 27, but it won't matter.

Oklahoma State has been overrated all season. It has lost five straight games coming into this one, and now it without its best player in Marcus Smart. In their first game without Smart, the Cowboys were rolled at Texas by a final of 68-87. They just aren't the same without him.

I have no doubt the Sooners will be 100% focused in this game despite already beating the Cowboys once this season. That's because they have lost three of their last four games coming into this contest, including two painfully close road losses at Iowa State (75-81) & WVU (75-81). They bounce back in a big way today.

The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Oklahoma is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Okie State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +10.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will be out for revenge from their 62-73 home loss to Iowa State in their Big 12 opener on January 4. I like their chances of staying within double-digits considering how well they have played since.

Texas Tech has not lost one game by more than 9 points since that defeat against ISU. It has gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma, while also topping Baylor and Oklahoma State at home during this stretch. Tubby Smith has this team playing very good basketball having won three in a row coming in.

Iowa State has been excellent fade material in Big 12 play as it has consistently been overvalued. In fact, the Cyclones are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they are being overvalued once again as a double-digits favorite this afternoon.

The Cyclones are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games dating back to 1997. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +8

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-14) have been a very competitive team this season under first-year head coach Eddie Jordan. I like what I've seen from them against some quality teams, and I have no doubt they'll give the SMU Mustangs a run for their money tonight.

Rutgers has won two of its last three in blowout fashion with a 93-70 home win over Houston, and a 79-69 triumph at South Florida. This is a team that played Louisville tough at home, losing by a final of 76-83 as a 14.5-point underdog.

SMU just moved into the top 25 after its first win over a Top 10 opponent since 1987. Fans stormed the court after the win over Cincinnati, and I enjoyed it as well as I was on the Mustangs in that game. Now, it's time to shift gears and fade them in a horrible spot.

The Mustangs are in line for a massive letdown tonight at Rutgers off such a big win that led to a national ranking. They have also had to deal with travel after this game was postponed, and it's not a short trip from SMU to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights will be out for revenge from their 56-70 loss at SMU on January 21 in their first meeting of the season as well.

SMU is just 4-4 in true road games this season, while Rutgers is 9-7 at home. The Scarlet Knights have been covering machines at home of late, going 5-1 ATS in their last six home contests. Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Utes (16-7) are one of the most improved teams in the country. With a big finish to the regular season, they could be finding themselves in the NCAA Tournament. That means not losing games like this to USC (10-13).

Sure, Utah is 0-6 on the road this season compared to 15-1 at home, but a closer look shows that it has played well on the road. Amazingly, all six of its road losses this season have come by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer.

The Utes lost at Boise State (67-69) as a 10-point dog, at Washington (57-59), at Washington State (46-49), at Arizona State (75-79), at Arizona (56-65) as a 13-point dog and at Colorado (75-79). None of those were really bad losses with the exception of maybe Washington State.

The reason I like the Utes to break through and get that first road win is because I believe USC has packed it in. It has lost nine of its last 10 games overall and really has nothing to play for. It is also coming off a 73-83 home loss to arch rival UCLA, which could lead to a hangover effect here.

Utah absolutely crushed USC in their first meeting of the season by a final of 84-66, forcing 17 turnovers while only giving it away 8 times. While I usually look for teams in revenge spots, I don't believe that will be a factor here because this isn't much of a rivalry. The state of the teams with Utah playing for the big dance and USC packing it in also eliminates the revenge factor in my opinion.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (USC) off three straight losses to conference opponents and trying to revenge a same season loss are 106-50 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Utes are 40-15 ATS in their last 57 games overall.

Utah is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. The Utes are 14-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. Utah is 8-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Utes. Take Utah Thursday.

20* College Basketball DOG OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +15

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being this heavily favored over the Northwestern Wildcats tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the dog in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

The Spartans aren't at full strength right now, yet they're being treated like they're one of the best teams in the country, which simply isn't the case at this point. That's because they are without two of their best players in Keith Appling (15.0 ppg, 4.9 apg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg).

This isn't a very deep Spartans team, so these two losses are absolutely huge. That has shown in recent games as Michigan State has lost three of its last five games overall. One of its wins came by two points over Iowa, and the other was a 15-point home win over Penn State.

Northwestern is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. It has won four of its last six games overall, which includes outright road victories over Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point dog, Wisconsin (65-56) as a 17-point dog, and Minnesota (55-54) as a 10.5-point dog.

The Wildcats will be out for revenge from a 40-54 home loss to Michigan State on January 15 in their first meeting of the season. They have played tough in recent trips to Michigan State, going 1-3 in their last four visits while not losing once by more than 10 points.

Northwestern is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Michigan State. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bet Northwestern Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +9.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been much more competitive this season under first-year head coach Tubby Smith. The cupboard certainly wasn't bare for Smith with four returning starters from last year, but he has done a good job in leading them to a 12-11 mark to this point.

Texas Tech has literally had a chance to win every one of its Big 12 games this season. It has gone 4-6 within the conference with all six losses coming by 11 points or fewer, and five by 9 points or less. That includes road losses at Texas (64-67), WVU (81-87) and Kansas State (58-66).

Tech lost its first meeting with Oklahoma by a final of 65-74 at home on January 25. That defeat places the Red Raiders in revenge mode, and it could also have Oklahoma overlooking them. That's especially the case with a big game against in-state rival Oklahoma State on deck.

The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 14-2 system backing the Red Raiders. Take Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +14

The DePaul Blue Demons (10-14) continue to fight despite their poor record. They have covered two of their last three against the spread with a 72-77 home loss to Providence as a 6-point dog, and a rather impressive 66-78 road loss at Creighton as a 20-point dog.

The Blue Demons are simply undervalued tonight as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team. They'll be out for revenge from a 62-88 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting of the season. This was a 24-33 game at half before the Wildcats blew it open after intermission. They shot 55.4% that day, and there's no chance they shoot that well again.

Villanova (21-2) is overvalued right now due to its record. This is a very tough spot for the Wildcats, who won't be able to get up for DePaul after already crushing the Blue Demons once this season. That's especially the case with a massive game on deck at Creighton this weekend that could determine the Big East champ. The Wildcats will be looking ahead to that contest.

Plays against of 10 to 19.5 points (VILLANOVA) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997. Villanova is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 road games after having covered three of its last four games ATS. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Roll with DePaul Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/Pitt ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -2

Tonight is the night when Syracuse suffers its first taste of defeat for the 2013-14 season. It has been a nice run, but I strongly believe it comes to an end. Oddsmakers have pegged Pittsburgh as the favorite for a reason, and this line continues to rise for a reason.

Pittsburgh has one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball, and you can bet it will be rocking tonight. The Panthers are 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points per game.

The Panthers will be in revenge mode following a 54-59 road loss at Syracuse on January 18 in their first meeting of the season. The Panthers shot just 38.3% from the field and 56.5% from the line in that game, while Syracuse shot 51.2% and 72.2%, respectively.

It's a miracle that the Panthers were able to hang tough despite those disparities, but they did so by outrebounding the Orange 35-24 for the game, including 12-4 on the offensive glass. There's no way the Panthers shoot that poorly again, and I still expect them to dominate the glass, which will be the difference as to why they get payback at home this time around.

Syracuse is 6-15 ATS after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 37% or less. The Panthers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven home meetings. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on George Mason +11

George Mason (8-15) is one of the most underrated teams in the country due to its record. A closer look shows that this team has simply fallen victim to bad luck in close games. In fact, 10 of its 15 losses have come by 6 points or less this season.

That includes narrow road losses to very good teams in Princeton (66-71), Oregon State (54-58) and Saint Louis (81-87), as well as close home losses to the likes of St. Josephs (80-84), UMass (87-88) and George Washington (69-75).

Having lost by a single point to the Minutemen in their first meeting this season, I look for George Mason to be out for revenge in this one. It clearly has not quit on the season having won at Duquesne 74-68 last time out. It will relish playing the role of spoiler tonight.

George Mason is 6-0 ATS in February road games over the last two seasons, winning by 9.5 points per game. UMass is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 10 or more points. The Minutemen have bigger games coming up at George Washington and VCU in their next two, and having already beaten the Patriots, they will be overlooking them tonight. Bet George Mason Wednesday.

20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes opened 15-0 this season and were clearly overvalued at that point. They went on to lose five of their next six by 10 points or less, and at the end of that stretch they were undervalued. That was evident when they went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes wins at Wisconsin and at Iowa.

I believe the Buckeyes remain undervalued as only a 3.5-point favorite over Michigan tonight. I have no doubt that Ohio State is the better team in this one. Considering it is 14-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game, I'll gladly back it at this generous price.

Michigan was undervalued for most of the season. It opened a perfect 8-0 in Big Ten play, which was certainly overachieving. Six of those wins came by single-digits. I believe the true Michigan has shown over the past couple weeks as it has gone 1-2 with blowout losses at Indiana (52-63) and at Iowa (67-85). Despite its record, I have no doubt the Wolverines are no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten, while Ohio State is better than its conference record would indicate.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-8 ATS in road games when playing their third game in a week over the last three seasons, losing by 10.0 points per game in this spot. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or fewer turnovers this season. These last two trends combined for a 14-0 system backing the home team. Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country at 18-4 this season. They aren't exactly being treated like it as only a 1.5-point road favorite over West Virginia (14-10), which is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12.

A big reason for that is the fact that Iowa State has really cooled off ATS after a hot streak. In fact, it has gone just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. That has the betting public off of the Cyclones due to a terrible run ATS, and now is the time to pounce on them at a great price.

West Virginia has been playing much better basketball of late, but remember, it lost its first two home games to Texas and Oklahoma State. It is also coming off a deflating 69-83 loss at Kansas on Saturday in a game that was close until the end. I look for the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat just two days ago.

Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread. The Cyclones are 33-19 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.

This will be Iowa State's 2nd game in 7 days, while this will be WVU's 3rd game in 6 days. The rest edge favors the Cyclones big-time. West Virginia is 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 home games, and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss. Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's +3

The St. John's Red Storm are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last six games overall to get to 14-9 on the season and right back in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Their have beaten the likes of Butler and Providence on the road. Their only loss during this stretch came at Creighton by a final of 60-63 as a 12.5-point underdog as Doug McDermott his a game-winner just before the buzzer. That places St. John's in revenge mode tonight at home this time around.

The amazing part about the fact that St. John's only lost by 3 in the first meeting is that they were killed in shooting. Creighton shot 48.9% from the field and 7-of-16 (43.7%) from 3-point range. The Red Storm shot 42.9% from the field and 1-of-10 (10%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be reversed this time around.

St. John's is 10-3 at home this season. The Bluejays are 1-8 ATS in February games over the last two years. Creighton is 1-9 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the last two years. The Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take St. John's Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +15

Once again, the Arizona Wildcats are way overvalued tonight. They are 21-1 on the season, and as a result, the betting public has been all over them. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate their lines, and I've been taking advantage of late.

I faded Arizona successfully with Utah +14 in a 56-65 loss at Arizona on January 26. Then, I released my Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon +11 on February 6 in a 65-67 road loss last time out. Once again, the books continue to give the Wildcats too much respect tonight.

One reason why Arizona will not be as strong as it was in the first half of the season is the fact that it lost one of its best players just two games ago. Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) shoots 52.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range. He'll be missed as he's been lost for the season due to injury.

Oregon State is a team of a similar talent level to both Utah and Oregon, and it is certainly capable of staying within double-digits tonight, let alone 15 points. This team has won four of its last six games to get to 13-9 on the season, which includes a 71-67 victory over UCLA, and an 80-72 triumph over Oregon.

Looking at Oregon State's losses, it's easy to see that this team is very competitive. In fact, all nine of the Beavers' losses have come by 12 points or less, so essentially they nave been in every game they have played. All five of their Pac-12 losses came by 11 points or fewer.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years as well. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Oregon State and Arizona were decided by 11 points or fewer, and six of those were settled by single-digits.

Oregon State is 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Beavers. Bet Oregon State Sunday.

15* Clemson/Syracuse ESPNU No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Syracuse Orange have been undervalued for much of the season. They opened 12-4 ATS in their first 16 lined games. However, due to being 22-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country, this team is starting to prove to be overvalued at this point in the season.

The Orange have a massive target on their back, and they have failed to cover in their last two games because of it. They beat Duke 91-89 in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite, and edged Notre Dame 61-55 as an 11.5-point home favorite in a sloppy performance.

Syracuse is obviously starting to hear how it is the best team in the country, and it is going to these players' heads. With an even bigger game against Pittsburgh on deck Wednesday, the Orange could easily be overlooking Clemson in this one.

Clemson (15-6) is one of the most improved teams in the country, and it could really use a signature win here to make the big dance. The Tigers have won five of their last seven ACC games overall, which includes a home win over Duke (72-59) and a road win at Florida State (53-49) to prove what they are capable of.

The Tigers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Syracuse is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. The Orange are 54-92 ATS in home games when playing its second game in a week since 1997. Brad Brownell is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 road games after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games in all games he has coached. Roll with Clemson Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -3

The SMU Mustangs are one of the sleeper teams in college basketball this season under legendary coach Larry Brown. They returned all five starters from last season and are primed to make the NCAA Tournament after an 18-5 start to the 2013-14 campaign.

I have seen enough from the Mustangs to know that this is one of the better teams in the country. Home wins over the likes of Memphis (87-82) and Connecticut (74-65) have proven that. Plus, they have played two of the best teams in the country in Cincinnati (57-65) and Louisville (63-71) tough in road losses.

Now, SMU gets a shot at revenge against the Bearcats at home this time around. It is a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game. The Bearcats come in overvalued due to their current 15-game winning streak. Each of their last four wins have come by 5 points or less, so they've simply been fortunate in close games. That streak comes to an end today in emphatic fashion.

Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) - off two consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1997. The Bearcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. Roll with SMU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost each of their last two games on the road in heartbreaking fashion on the road to Iowa State (75-81) and West Virginia (86-91, OT). I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Oklahoma (17-6) remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. It has taken care of business at home this year, going 10-2 while winning by 9.6 points per game. They have also beaten Texas and Baylor on the road, and Oklahoma State and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is in a world of hurt right now. Simply put, this team came into the season overrated. The Bears have lost six of their last seven games overall, including a deflating 52-69 home loss to Kansas last time out. Five of their seven Big 12 losses have come by double-digits, so they've rarely been competitive.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Baylor is 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings with Baylor. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes obviously want revenge from their 77-85 loss to the Wolverines roughly two weeks ago in Ann Arbor on January 22. They get them at home this time around, and despite their recent struggles here, the Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 23.2 points per game. Michigan is just 4-3 in true road games this season, and it lost 52-63 in its last road game at Indiana. The Wolverines are simply overvalued right now due to their fast start in the Big Ten.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings between Iowa and Michigan. Dating back further, the home team is a superb 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Iowa is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games. Iowa is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS off two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +11

The Oregon Ducks (15-6) represent my strongest play for the entire 2013-14 season in the Pac-12 Thursday. They take on the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (21-1) on the road with a chance to get a signature win and greatly increase their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is undervalued right now due to losing six of its last eight games overall following a 13-0 start. Five of those six losses came by single-digits, including three by a combined 8 points. So, the Ducks have been in basically every game they have played with a chance to win in the end. This game will be no different.

Arizona comes in overvalued due to its 21-1 start. It just suffered its first loss of the season in a 58-60 setback at California last time out. When teams have long winning streaks like this snapped, more times than not there is a hangover effect in their next game. I really believe that the Wildcats will be upset tonight, but I'm just taking the points for some added insurance.

One key factor here is that Arizona lost one of its best players in its loss to California. Forward Brandon Ashley (ankle) has been lost for the season. He was the team's third leading scorer at 11.5 points per game, while also averaging 5.8 rebounds per game. He shot 52.2 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from 3-point range, and 75.7 percent from the free throw line, so this is obviously a huge loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (OREGON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Ducks are 17-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are much-improved this season under Matt Painter due to having four starters back. However, at 13-9 on the season, they really need to go on a run right now if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Because of this, the Boilermakers will not be lacking any motivation. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they have lost four straight following a three-game winning streak in the Big Ten. That is expected considering three of the losses came on the road, while the other was at home against Big Ten power Wisconsin.

Finally, this is a classic revenge spot, which will only add to the motivation. Minnesota beat Purdue 82-79 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 5. Exactly a month later, I expect the Boilermakers to have their revenge at home this time around.

Everything went right for Minnesota in that game as it shot 52.2% from the field, 11-of-24 (45.8%) from 3-point range, and 23-of-27 (85.2%) from the line, yet it still only won by 3 points. The Gophers won't shoot that well again, and as a result, they won't be so fortunate this time around.

The Golden Gophers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Purdue is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Minnesota. Take Purdue Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia comes in playing its best basketball of the season, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Oklahoma. I'll take advantage and back the Mountaineers.

WVU has won three of its last four games overall with its lone loss coming at Oklahoma State by a final of 75-81 as a 13.5-point underdog. It has gone on the road and beaten Baylor, while also topping Kansas State and Texas Tech at home during this stretch.

I believe Oklahoma is overvalued right now after a fast start to Big 12 play that included four straight wins before falling to Iowa State on Saturday. The Mountaineers will be the more motivated team here as they really need this win to get back into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

The Mountaineers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games with a total of 150 to 159 points. West Virginia is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 home games off a home win. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 80 points or more over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. This should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last year.

The Huskers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three of their last four games with victories over Ohio State, Minnesota and Indiana. In fact, their last three losses have all come by 6 points or less.

One of those defeats was a 70-71 home loss to Michigan. That places the Huskers in revenge mode tonight. Michigan is way overvalued due to its 8-1 start in Big Ten play. It simply cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself in the eyes of the betting public, which has forced oddsmakers to inflate its lines.

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. These three trends combine for a an 18-0 system backing the Huskers. It's also worth nothing that the Huskers have had three extra days of rest heading into this one. Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -3.5

Despite losing five of their last six games overall, the Wisconsin Badgers are still 17-5 on the season and one of the best teams in the country. I look for them to come out motivated and to take care of business against hapless Illinois (13-9) tonight.

Wisconsin has suffered four of its losses by single-digits, so it simply hasn't been getting it done in close games. The good news is that I do not expect this game to be close at all as the Badgers come out playing inspired basketball from start to finish.

Illinois has nothing to be excited about right now. It has lost seven straight games coming in with all seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes a 70-95 loss at Wisconsin to start the streak on January 8. This has been a one-sided series to say the least.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Illinois as four of those victories have come by double-digits. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +9

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most improved teams in the country. However, I believe they are overvalued right now as a 9-point favorite at TCU in this Big 12 showdown Tuesday night. They need to be on upset alert.

Texas is 17-4 this season after having won six straight Big 12 games. Off its biggest win of the season with an 81-69 home victory over Kansas, Texas finds itself in a massive letdown spot tonight. It's only human nature to come out flat after beating a team like Kansas.

Meanwhile, TCU is chomping at the bit to get its first taste of victory in the Big 12. It has come close in losses to West Virginia (69-74), Oklahoma (69-77) and Texas Tech (54-60) to show that it can be competitive. Remember, this team upset Kansas at home last year, and the Horned Frogs are fully capable of doing the same against the Longhorns tonight.

Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games coming in. The Longhorns are 15-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet TCU Tuesday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

After having lost five of their last six games overall, the Ohio State Buckeyes showed a ton of grit and determination in beating the Wisconsin Badgers on the road by a final of 59-58 Saturday. That win gives this team a ton of confidence and momentum going forward.

Ohio State is still 17-5 on the season, and I have no doubt it remains one of the best teams in the country. It will now be out for revenge from a 74-84 home loss to Iowa in their first meeting of the season back on January 12.

I have had a lot of success taking these road teams who lost at home to their opponent in the first meeting of the season. There's no question that the Buckeyes will be the more motivated team given the circumstances, and they are catching a decent amount of points to boot.

Ohio State is 19-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Buckeyes are 31-10 ATS in their last 41 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. As you can see, this team has been excellent in this situation over time as well. Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier +10

The Xavier Musketeers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Providence and Seton Hall to fall to 15-6 on the season. They are undervalued as a 10-point underdog to Villanova Monday as a result.

I've seen enough from this Xavier team to realize that it has the potential to go into Villanova and pull off the upset tonight, and at the very least to keep it close. In fact, five of its six losses this season have come by 9 points or less. It has beaten the likes of Cincinnati and Tennessee while playing some of the other top teams in the country very tough.

Villanova comes in overvalued due to having won three straight road games, but those three came against conference bottom feeders Temple, Georgetown and Marquette. The Wildcats needed overtime to beat Marquette, and only won by 5 at Georgetown. Remember, in their last home game, they lost to Creighton 68-96. That's the same Creighton team that only beat Xavier 95-89 at home.

Plays against any team (VILLANOVA) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Xavier is 7-0 ATS versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or better and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better this season. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. Bet Xavier Monday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +14.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Louisville on the road by a final of 69-66 as a 9-point underdog Thursday. Now, they have a game against UConn on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

It's only human nature for the Bearcats to show up lacking focus today off such a big win and with a great opponent on deck. I also believe this team is overvalued due to their current 13-game winning streak. Four of their last five wins have come by 11 points or less.

One of those was a 61-54 win at South Florida on January 18. So, the Bulls will be out for revenge in this game. That's another reason that the Bearcats will find it hard being motivated enough to win this game by 15-plus having already beaten the Bulls. I fully expect this one to go down to the wire.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-37 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 7-30 ATS in its last 37 Sunday games. South Florida is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series, including 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Cincinnati. Take South Florida Sunday.

15* Michigan State/Georgetown Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgetown +7.5

The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued after their big overtime win at Iowa on Tuesday. They were able to win that game with a depleted roster, which was a huge win for the program. It's only human nature for them to come back and suffer a letdown as they step out of conference to face Georgetown Saturday.

Michigan State is still expected to be without its two best post players in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Some teams can play without their best players for a couple games, but over time it catches up to them.

I look for the Hoyas to be very competitive today against the short-handed Spartans and to likely pull off the upset. This Georgetown team is highly motivated for a win after losing five straight coming in, including a 5-point loss to Villanova last time out. The Hoyas will have a big home-court advantage as this game will be played in Madison Square Garden.

Tom Izzo is 4-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of Michigan State. This trend just goes to show how the Spartans have had letdowns following a big road game under Izzo. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in February games over the past two seasons. The Hoyas are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Georgetown Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +10.5

The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Tech Red Raiders are battling for the basement of the Big 12 this season. The Frogs have yet to win a Big 12 game, while the Raiders only have two victories within the conference.

One of those wins for Texas Tech came against TCU in a 60-49 road victory on January 18. That places the Horned Frogs in revenge mode, and also extra motivated for their first win of the season. This will be their best chance to get one, and I look for them to put up a great fight today.

All three meetings between these teams have been decided by 11 points or less over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs have lost all three of those games, so that adds even more fuel to the fire for them. There's no question this team is improved from a year ago.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TCU) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 77-34 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Texas Tech is 6-21 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take TCU Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are showing tremendous value as only a 3-point home favorite over Kansas State this afternoon. I'll take advantage and back them in a game I look for them to run away with.

Kansas State is a tremendous home team with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. However, the Wildcats have really struggled on the road throughout the years, and that has not changed this year. They are 1-3 in true road games this season.

West Virginia has won two of its last three games and is a respectable 4-4 in Big 12 play this season. What's most amazing about that is the fact that it has won three Big 12 road games already. This team will be out for revenge from an ugly loss at Kansas State on January 18, so the motivation will be on the Mountaineers' side.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Purdue/Michigan ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue +12

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now. They have opened a perfect 7-0 in Big Ten play due to winning all of their close games. Five of those seven wins came by 8 points or less. Off a massive win at Michigan State last time out, this team is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country. It has opened 13-7 this season, which includes impressive road wins over West Virginia and Illinois. Both of its Big Ten road losses this year came by exactly 3 points to Minnesota and Northwestern, so this team has proven it can play well away from home.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PURDUE) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Matt Painter is 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of Purdue. Painter is 25-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Purdue. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The Oregon Ducks are way undervalued right now due to having lost five of their last six games overall. After losing five straight with four of those losses coming by single-digits, they bounced back in a big way with a 71-44 win at Washington State last time out.

I look for the Ducks to build off of that win, and to continue playing motivated basketball after such a poor stretch. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they'll prove that against UCLA tonight.

UCLA has only played three true road games, going 1-2 with losses to Missouri and Utah. It's only win came against a depleted Colorado team that was missing its best player. The Bruins have proven nothing on the road this year, therefore they are getting too much respect as only a 2-point dog in this one.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA. The Ducks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Oregon is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games following a blowout win by 20 points or more. UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80%. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the land this season. That should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last season. This team is way undervalued having covered five straight and six of seven in Big Ten play this season.

I have really been impressed with how well Nebraska has played at home this year. In fact, it is 9-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in all home games with its only loss coming to Michigan (70-71) by a single point. The Wolverines are currently in first place in the Big Ten with a 7-0 mark. The Huskers have beaten the likes of Ohio State and Minnesota at home.

Indiana is reloading this season with only one starter back from last year. It is off to a mediocre 13-7 start, losing most of its big games. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 in true road games this season with their lone win coming at Penn State (79-76) by a mere 3 points.

Nebraska is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls. The Huskers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

The Florida Gators are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. Certainly, the Gators deserve some respect due to their 11-game winning streak, but asking them to win by 14-plus points on the road at Mississippi State to beat us is asking too much.

Only three of Florida's 11 wins during this run have been in true road games, and all three went down to the wire. It beat Arkansas (84-82), Auburn (68-61) and Alabama (68-62), which are all three teams that have similar talent to the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State (13-6) is certainly an improved team this year with all five starters back. I really like what I've seen from this team at home. The Bulldogs are 11-1 at home this season, which includes wins over Ole Miss (76-72), Texas A&M (81-72) and Auburn (82-74) in SEC play.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (FLORIDA) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Florida. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 70-77 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 13. They also lost in overtime twice to the Jayhawks last season, so you can bet that payback is on the mind of every single player for Iowa State.

Amazingly, the Cyclones only lost by 7 to the Jayhawks despite playing the worst that they possibly could. They shot just 31.4% from the field compared to 49.2% for the Jayhawks. They went cold from 3-point range, connecting on just 4-of-25 (16.0%) attempts. They were also outrebounded 36-53.

I look for the Cyclones to be much sharper from the field, especially from beyond the arc, which is their specialty. I also look for them to be much more aggressive on the glass in this one. Plus, DeAndre Kane was about 60 percent healthy as he was playing on a hobbled ankle.

The Wooden Award candidate is back and healthy and will be a big reason as to why ISU gives Kansas a run for its money. Just last year, the Cyclones took the Jayhawks to overtime in Lawrence as an 11.5-point underdog only after a banked 3-pointer by Kansas at the buzzer.

Iowa State is a perfect 9-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 80.8 to 63.3 in this spot, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. This game will go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having a great chance to pull off the upset. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +9

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013-14. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik returned four starters from last year, and the result has been a 14-6 start and a legitimate shot to get into the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

While the Demon Deacons have not played well on the road this year, they simply have been flawless at home. In fact, Wake Forest is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game. That includes wins over the likes of Richmond, St. Bonaventure, UNC, NC State and Notre Dame.

For starters, Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 19-0 start. It has been a covering machine to boot, going 11-4 ATS in all lined games. The betting public has caught on to the Orange, which has forced oddsmakers to set an inflated line tonight.

This is a massive letdown spot for Syracuse with its biggest game of the season on deck against Duke this Saturday. The Orange won't be able to help themselves from looking ahead to that game. As a result, they won't have the kind of focus to beat Wake Forest by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after allowing 65 points or less five straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wake Forest is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. John's +13.5

The St. John's Red Storm got off to a horrible start this season. It was certainly a surprise considering this team returned all five starters from last year and was supposed to be one of the most improved in the country. However, that slow start has created a ton of value for the Red Storm lately, especially here tonight.

St. John's has been finally playing up to its potential of late. It has won three straight coming in, including its most impressive performance of the season last time out. The Red Storm went on the road and beat Butler 69-52 despite being a 3.5-point underdog in that contest. I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team.

Creighton is way overvalued right now due to being nationally ranked. There's no question that this is a quality team, but they are nowhere near as good as the beat down they put on Villanova a week ago, which is the reason they are overvalued here. The Bluejays made everything they looked at in that game from 3-point range. Asking them to win by 14 to beat us against an underrated St. John's team is simply asking too much.

St. John's is 33-18 ATS in its last 51 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds last game. Creighton is 5-17 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show how overvalued the Bluejays have been when getting on a run like the current one they are on. Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's amazing how close this team is to being 20-0 right now. All four of its losses have come on the road to ranked opponents in Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85), Wisconsin (71-75) and Michigan (67-75) by a combined 20 points.

Iowa has yet to lose at home this season, going a perfect 11-0 while outscoring opponents 90.3 to 62.1, or by an average of 28.2 points per game. It's safe to say that Carver Hawkeye Arena has made a revival, and it will be rowdy inside when the Michigan State Spartans make a visit. These fans and the players want revenge from two 3-point losses to Michigan State last year.

The Spartans are in a world of hurt right now. They are likely to be without their top two big men tonight. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is out with a broken wrist, while Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is doubtful with a foot injury. Iowa is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 44-34 on the season, so the potential losses of Dawson and Payne will hurt the Spartans against the Hawkeyes more than they would against most other teams.

Iowa is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Iowa is 26-8 ATS in its last 34 games following a win. The Hawkeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 home games. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Once again, they are getting disrespected as a home underdog to rival Oklahoma State Monday. While I don't believe they'll need the points, I'll back the Sooners and the points for some insurance.

Oklahoma (16-4) has proven it is one of the better teams in the land in conference play. It has opened 5-2 in the Big 12, which includes road wins at Baylor and Texas, as well as a home win over Iowa State. Its two losses have come by 7 points or less to both Kansas and Kansas State (on the road).

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the land due to having Marcus Smart, who really hasn't been as good as he was expected to be. The Cowboys have opened 4-2 in conference play, and they've been atrocious on the road. They are 1-2 in conference road games, losing to Kansas State and Kansas, while beating lowly West Virginia (73-72) by a single point.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this rivalry. In fact, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series. Better yet, the Sooners are 9-0 in Norman against the Cowboys since a 65-52 loss back in 2004. As you can see, the wrong team is favored in this one. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah +15

The Utah Utes get the call Saturday as a massive road underdog to the Arizona Wildcats. Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Wildcats are clearly overvalued right now, which means it's time to fade them.

While Arizona (19-0) is considered the best team in the land, I have no doubt that Utah (14-5) is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. In fact, this team is very close to being undefeated this season. All five of its losses have come by 4 points or less with road losses to Boise State (67-69), Washington (57-59), Washington State (46-49) and Arizona State (75-79), as well as a home loss to Oregon (68-70).

Utah played Arizona extremely tough last season. It lost by a final of 57-60 as a 19-point road underdog on January 5. It came back at home and lost 64-68 as a 10-point underdog on February 17. There's no question the Utes want revenge and would love nothing more than to hand the Wildcats their first lost of the season. At the very least, I have no doubt they'll stay within 15 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UTAH) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Utah is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons. The Utes are 13-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse from the field over the last two years. The Utes are 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall. Bet Utah Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -5.5

The Oregon Ducks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday as they travel to face lowly Washington State. I look for that motivation and intensity to lead to a blowout road victory against the Cougars, who are just 8-11 on the season.

Oregon opened 13-0 and was nationally ranked. However, it has lost five straight games since with four of those coming by single-digits. It simply hasn't been getting the breaks, and it has played a brutal schedule to boot.

This is actually a break in the scheduled for the Ducks. Washington State is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Pac-12 play, getting outscored by an average of 16.5 points per game. The Cougars are clearly the worst team in the conference, and that will show again tonight.

Ken Bone is 0-9 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game in all games he has coached. Take this 100% system all-time straight to the bank tonight. Take Oregon Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -1.5

It's now or never for the Alabama Crimson Tide, who cannot afford many more losses if they want to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. Playing with that motivation in mind, I'll back them as a small home favorite over the LSU Tigers today.

Alabama is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record. It just simply has not gotten the breaks in close games as nine of its 10 losses have come by 10 points or less, including close setbacks against some of the best teams in the country in Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and Florida (62-68).

My biggest reason for backing 'Bama is the importance of home-court advantage in this series. Alabama is a sensational 14-2 SU in its last 16 home meetings with LSU.

Plays on a favorite (ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS when playing with one or less days' rest over the last three seasons. Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Michigan/MSU ESPN Rivalry Play on Michigan +5

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being favored Saturday. They are going to be without their two best post players, and as a result, they are going to get owned inside and likely lose outright. I'm only taking the five points for some insurance.

Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has missed the past four games with a foot injury and is doubtful to play Saturday. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) suffered a broken hand during a recent film session and will miss the next four-to-five weeks as a result.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing better basketball than the Wolverines right now. They have won eight straight games going in, going 6-1-1 ATS in the process. That includes road wins over Minnesota (63-60) and Wisconsin (77-70), as well as a home win over Iowa (75-67). Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +8

The Seton Hall Pirates have no business being this heavily favored over the DePaul Blue Demons Saturday in what I believe is a very evenly-matched game. I'll take the points in this one without hesitation as a result.

One of my biggest reasons for wanting to fade Seton Hall here is that it is in a very tough spot. Indeed, it is coming off a painful 76-77 loss at St. John's on Thursday. It came way back from 17 points down in the second half to have a chance to win in the end.

So, the Pirates used a ton of energy to come back, and now they only get one day to rest and prepare for DePaul. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons come in fresh and ready to go having last played on Monday, January 20 in a 10-point loss to Xavier. That edge in rest and preparation will be a big key to a Demon Deacons' cover today.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Saturday home games. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games following a game with five or less offensive rebounds. Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off a close road loss by 3 points or less. Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +9.5

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. I'll gladly take my chances with the Gators not being able to beat a very underrated Tennessee team by double-digits in this one.

The reason Florida is overvalued is due to winning 10 straight games heading into this one. It has shown signs of being overvalued in its last two games, failing to cover in a 7-point win over Auburn and a 6-point win over Alabama. This one will go right down to the wire as well.

While Tennessee is a mediocre 12-6 this season, a closer look shows how close this team is to being a lot better than that. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 9 points or less this season. That three road losses to Xavier (63-67), Wichita State (61-70) and Kentucky (66-74), which are three of the best teams in the country. Those three efforts give the Vols the believe that they can play with anyone on the road.

Tennessee simply has Florida's number. In fact, the Vols are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gators. They won 64-58 as an 8-point home underdog, 75-70 as a 12.5-point road dog, and 67-56 as a 7.5-point home dog in their last three meetings, respectively.

The Vols are 10-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three seasons. Tennessee is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following seven or more consecutive wins. Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be out for revenge from their 72-73 home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys back on January 11 just two weeks ago. They will give the Cowboys a run for their money today, and they should not be catching 14 points.

Oklahoma State is in a very tough spot here. It is coming off a heartbreaking 78-80 loss at Kansas last time out, and it has a huge game on deck against Oklahoma Monday. That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys, who will have a hard time getting motivated enough to beat WVU by 15-plus points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

West Virginia is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in its previous game. Oklahoma State is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Cowboys are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5

The Northwestern Wildcats will be out for revenge today from their ugly 67-93 loss at Iowa in their first meeting of the season on January 9. With the way this team has been playing of late, I like their chances to stay within double-digits of the Hawkeyes and possibly pull off the upset in the rematch.

Indeed, Northwestern is 3-1 in its last four games overall with home wins against Illinois (49-43) and Purdue (63-60), as well as a very impressive road win at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point underdog. It was a dog in all four of those contests.

Iowa is in a tough spot here. Not only will it find it hard to be motivated enough to beat Northwestern by double-digits after already topping the Wildcats by 26 points, it is also coming off a tough loss at Michigan, and it has an even bigger game with Michigan State on deck Tuesday.

The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where both teams scored 70 points or less over the last three seasons. They are winning 67.7 to 64.0 in this spot. They are clearly playing tremendous defense coming in. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -3

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight. I'll take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout by game's end.

Penn State is one of the most improved teams in the country this season due to the return of leading scorer Tim Frazier, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury. However, the Nittany Lions have struggled in Big Ten play, opening 0-6 with three losses by 3 points or less. That leaves them hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference, and they get it tonight.

This is the perfect spot to fade Nebraska, which is coming off its biggest win of the season. After opening 0-4 in Big Ten play, the Huskers were able to upset Ohio State at home on Monday. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win. Plus, the Huskers only come in on two days' rest, while the Nittany Lions come in on four days' rest having last played on Saturday.

Nebraska is 0-8 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival over the last three seasons. It is coming back to lost 57.0 to 77.9 in this spot, or by an average of 20.9 points per game. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -4

The St. John's Red Storm are under the radar right now due to a poor start in Big East play. With all five starters back from last season, this team has certainly underachieved up to this point. However, I think this is going to be a dangerous squad going forward because of it.

St. John's has opened 0-5 in Big East play and is hungry for its first taste of victory within the conference. Three of those losses have come by 7 points or less, including two by a combined 3 points. There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should be a much heavier home favorite tonight.

Seton Hall is just a mediocre team that is getting too much respect from he books tonight. It was blown out at home by both Creighton (66-79) and Villanova (67-83). It also lost at home to St. Peters (80-83) in mid-December. However, it is coming off a big win at Georgetown last time out, which sets it up for a letdown spot here against a Red Storm team that simply wants it more.

Kevin Willard is 3-12 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three games against the spread as the coach of Seton Hall. Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is a sensational 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take St. John's Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -2

Off back-to-back losses, which just so happened to be their only two losses on the season, the Wisconsin Badgers (16-2) will be out for blood tonight. I'll gladly back this motivated team against the overmatched Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.

While Wisconsin's two losses came by a combined nine points, Minnesota has really been overmatched in a couple of Big Ten games against the top teams in the league. It lost to Michigan State 75-87, while also falling to Iowa 73-94 last time out. It stands little chance tonight, too.

Wisconsin has won four of its last five meetings with Minnesota with its only loss coming in overtime. The Gophers have played a much softer schedule than the Badgers to this point, and I don't believe they are fully ready for the effort they're going to get from this hungry Wisconsin team.

The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Golden Gophers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten foes. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Take Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +7.5

This is a classic revenge game for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost at home to West Virginia by a final of 86-89 on January 6. Two weeks later, the Red Raiders will be out for payback tonight.

Texas Tech has been playing great since that defeat. After falling at Texas 64-67 as a 10-point underdog, it came back and beat Baylor at home 82-72 as a 5-point dog, while also topping TCU on the road 60-49 as a 2-point favorite.

West Virginia has been overrated all season, and it continues to be tonight. This team simply isn't that good, and that has shown in the last three games. It fell at home to Oklahoma State (72-73) and Texas (69-80) before getting throttled on the road at Kansas State (56-78).

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less. The Mountaineers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. WVU is 7-22-1 ATS in its last 30 home games. The Mountaineers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +11

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Quietly, they have gotten off to a 13-4 start this season and have proven their worth in ACC play. They have opened 4-1 in the conference, which includes a win over Duke.

Pittsburgh is a much-improved team this season as well, but it is way overvalued here and has been for much of the season. It has gone just 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 lined games, time and time again failing to cover lofty spreads.

The Panthers are coming off a huge loss to Syracuse by a final of 54-59 over the weekend. I fully expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it will be tough to bounce back emotionally from such a close defeat.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Pittsburgh is 1-12 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more over the last three seasons. Take Clemson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +12

The Indiana Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Not only do they have revenge in mind, but they also want to get the sour taste out of their mouths from an ugly loss last time out.

Indiana lost 56-73 at home to Michigan State on January 4 just over two weeks ago. There's no question it wants payback from that defeat. Off a big win over Wisconsin, it was only human nature that the Hoosiers would let down against Northwestern last game, and it cost them as they lost outright. The Spartans will have their full attention.

Michigan State is way overvalued right now due to its 10-game winning streak heading into this game. Plus, the Spartans are expected to be without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a foot injury.

Indiana is 5-1-1 (83%) ATS in its last seven road games. Tom Izzo is 30-47 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Michigan State. Roll with Indiana Tuesday.

15* Baylor/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baylor +10.5

The Baylor Bears will be a highly motivated team tonight when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks. They are way undervalued due to losing three of their first four games in Big 12 play, and I'll gladly take advantage by backing them as a double-digit dog here.

At 13-4 and with wins over Colorado, Dayton, and Kentucky all away from home, I have no doubt that Baylor is still one of the better teams in the country. I look for the Bears to prove that tonight against what is perceived to be as the best team in the Big 12.

After a 4-0 start in conference play, I have no doubt that Kansas is overvalued in this one. Three of those wins came by seven points or less, so it is fortunate to have this record. Remember, the Jayhawks have lost four games this season, including a home loss to San Diego State.

The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. Baylor is a very profitable 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Kansas. Clearly, the Bears have not minded playing in Lawrence at all. Roll with Baylor Monday.

15* Oregon/OSU CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2.5

The Oregon Ducks opened the season 13-0 and were rolling. Three straight losses later to Colorado, Cal and Stanford, and this team is searching for itself. Due to this 3-game skid, I look for the Ducks to be even more motivated than usual as they do battle with in-state rival Oregon State in the Civil War Sunday.

I have no doubt that Oregon is still one of the best teams in the country despite this recent skid, and I look for it to show it tonight. This team is simply undervalued right now due to the streak and the six straight losses against the spread as well, and now is the time to pounce.

Oregon State (9-7) is clearly overvmatched in this one. Its true colors have shown as the schedule has gotten tougher of late, losing five of its last eight games overall. Oregon won both meetings by double-digits last year to improve to 24-8 straight up against Oregon State since 1997. The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Oregon State.

Oregon is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oregon State is 14-37 ATS in its last 51 home games following a home loss. The Ducks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Bet Oregon Sunday.

15* Louisville/UConn ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Connecticut +2

The UConn Huskies have been undervalued for most of this season. That is certainly the case again here tonight as they are a home underdog to the defending champion Louisville Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage.

I've seen enough from the Huskies to know that this team can beat anyone in the country. It has racked up neutral court wins over Maryland and Indiana, home wins over Florida and Harvard, and road wins over Washington and Memphis. That's an impressive slate.

Louisville is 0-3 against the best three opponents that it has faced this season in UNC, Kentucky and Memphis. I would argue that it doesn't have a good win yet considering all of its wins have come as a favorite of 13.5 points or more. It is short-handed as well as it is playing without Chane Behanan (dismissed from team) and third-leading scorer Chris Jones (11.3 ppg).

UConn is 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Huskies are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with UConn Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Bonaventure -3

St. Bonaventure is one of the better teams in the country that not too many folks know about. Despite being just 11-6 on the season, this team is favored for good reason over George Washington (14-3) tonight.

All six of the Bonnies' losses have come on the road this season with five of them coming by 6 points or less. That includes back-to-back impressive losses at UMass (68-73) as a 7-point dog and at Saint Louis (60-66) as an 11-point dog. They'll clearly be motivated to get back in the win column today.

You have to like their chances considering the Bonnies are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. All three of George Washington's losses have come on the road this year. Off a massive win over VCU earlier this week, the Colonials are in line for a colossal letdown today.

GW is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game after 15-plus games. St. Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. The Colonials are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bonnies are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by 6 points or fewer. Bet St. Bonaventure Saturday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. John's -13

The St. John's Red Storm (9-8) are going to be highly motivated for a win today. As a result, I'll back them as a generous 13-point favorite against Dartmouth (7-7) Saturday.

The Red Storm may be the best team in the country that has eight losses or more on the season. This is a team that returned all five starters from last year and was expected to be improved, but after a slow start, they are undervalued right now.

St. John's is coming off five straight losses against a brutal schedule, and it wants to take out its frustration today. Six of its eight losses have come by 10 points or less, and five of them have come against Wisconsin, Syracuse, Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova.

This is a Dartmouth team that has home losses to Vermont (53-62), Hartford (56-68) and Bryant (56-68), as well as a road loss to IUPU-FT Wayne (64-80) among its seven losses overall. Those results allow me to believe that they have no chance of hanging with the motivated Red Storm today.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (ST JOHNS) - off 2 or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1997. Take St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -1.5

Off back-to-back losses for their first two defeats of the season, I am backing the Iowa State Cyclones to bounce back with a road win at Texas Saturday. This is a serious contender to win the Big 12, and it cannot afford a third straight loss if it wants to accomplish that feat.

Texas is coming off back-to-back wins, including a victory at West Virginia last time out. This is a quality team and one that is better than most expected coming into the season, but I believe it is overvalued due to the solid start. This team is a bit of a fraud and will fade as the Big 12 season rolls along.

Iowa State shot just 31.4% against Kansas while giving up 49.2% shooting to the Jayhawks, yet still only lost 70-77. Even playing their worst game Monday, the Cyclones still had a chance to win that game in the end.

The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons. They are coming back to win by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Iowa State is also 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years. It is winning by 14.6 points per game in this spot. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler PK

The Butler Bulldogs will be more motivated for a win today than they have been at any point in the season thus far. That's why I'm going to back them at a very generous price as a pick 'em at home against Marquette Saturday.

Butler has lost five straight games coming in with three of those losses coming by five points or less, including setbacks to Villanova (73-76) and Georgetown (67-70). It is ready to put an end to this skid, which has been the result of a brutal schedule and poor fortune in close games more than anything.

Marquette is just 1-4 in true road games this season. I really believe that the Bulldogs are going to be the more motivated team here because they lost both meetings to the Golden Eagles last year by a combined three points, including a 72-74 setback in the NCAA Tournament. They want revenge this year.

The Golden Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Big East opponents. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system going against Marquette. Also, the Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats get the call Saturday as a small home favorite over the West Virginia Mountaineers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from the books.

That has been very evident of late as the Wildcats have gone a healthy 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. That includes wins over the likes of Ole Miss, Gonzaga, George Washington, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

I'm just not sold on West Virginia (10-7), which is getting too much respect from the books here. It has lost its last two games to Oklahoma State and Texas at home. I think its two narrow road wins over TCU and Texas Tech by a combined eight points to open the Big 12 season have it overvalued.

Kansas State is 9-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The Mountaineers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +13

Nebraska-Omaha is one of those teams from a small conference that the betting public has not caught onto. The Mavericks have been a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS this season, and I'll continue to ride them showing tremendous value tonight.

This is a Nebraska-Omaha team that returned four starters from last season. It is led by three absolute studs in John Karhoff (14.4 ppg), CJ Carter (14.1 ppg) and Devin Patterson (12.1 ppg). The Mavericks are averaging 83.3 points per game this season and shooting 78.6% from the free throw line.

North Dakota State also returns a lot of talent from last season, but this team is simply overvalued tonight. The Bison have failed to cover the spread in three of their last five games overall, which includes a 71-82 loss at IUPU-FT Wayne despite being a 7-point favorite.

NDSU is 0-7 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Omaha has not lost by more than 13 points yet this season, which includes covers at Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point dog, at UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog, at Minnesota (79-92) as a 16-point dog, and at Hawaii (73-77) as a 9-point dog. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Thursday.