01-02-15 |
USC +17.5 v. Utah |
|
55-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +17.5
USC came into this season undervalued after going just 2-16 in Pac-12 play in Jamie Enfield's first season on the job last year. Remember, Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 two years ago, and he has a very talented freshman class leading the way at USC in 2014-15 as he's starting to get his players in place.
The Trojans are off to a respectable 8-4 start this season entering conference play while going 7-5 ATS in the process. Three of their four losses have come by 12 points or less as they have only been beaten by more than 17.5 points one time, which is the spread for this game against Utah.
What really stood out to me about USC's 12 games up to this point is that it they have actually played their best two games in their only two true road games. The Trojans beat New Mexico 66-54 as 9-point road underdogs, and they also beat Boston College 75-71 as 7-point road dogs. That's a great sign heading into this game.
Utah is a team I had circled as undervalued coming into 2014-15. It barely missed the NCAA Tournament last year and lost a lot of close games. Well, it clearly has been undervalued up to this point as it has gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.
However, I believe it's now time to fade the Utes as they are overvalued entering conference play after this fast start. They are also currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country, and with a Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to.
Utah did beat USC 84-66 at home and 79-71 on the road last year. That 18-point home win is a little concerning, but not when you consider that there's no question the Trojans are vastly improved over a year ago. Utah is also slightly improved, but not as much as the Trojans are, so they should be able to stay within 17.5 this time around.
Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (allowing less than 40%), dominant rebounding team (at least plus-6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
USC is 7-0 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons. It is actually beating these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game. Utah does play at a very slow pace, which works in our favor here as it will be tough for the Utes to win by 18 or more because of it. Also, the Utes are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points. Take USC Friday.
|
12-31-14 |
Penn State +19 v. Wisconsin |
|
72-89 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +19
The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value today as 19-point underdogs to the Wisconsin Badgers in their Big Ten opener. They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season and just aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today.
Penn State is a legitimate NCAA tournament contender with four starters back from last year and it's 12-1 start. It's only loss came in overtime to a very good Charlotte team by a final of 97-106 earlier this season. It has reeled off 10 straight wins since.
Wisconsin is way overvalued here due to its 12-1 start and its No. 4 national ranking. The Badgers are certainly one of the better teams in the country, but the Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Badgers are considered the best team in the conference.
Wisconsin hasn't exactly blown out the opposition this year when facing quality teams such as Penn State. It is 3-1 against the likes of Georgetown (68-65), Oklahoma (69-56), Duke (70-80) and California (68-56), not beating any of those teams by more than 13 points.
What I really love about this play as well is the fact that the Nittany Lions will be the more prepared team. They last played on December 22nd in a 69-49 home win over Dartmouth, so they have had over a week to get ready for Wisconsin. The Badgers last played on December 28th in a 68-56 home win over Buffalo, so they have only had two days to prepare for Penn State.
Penn State has played Wisconsin very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. As a result, Penn State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin since 2010. Take Penn State Wednesday.
|
12-30-14 |
Illinois v. Michigan -2 |
|
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2
The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams. I look for them to run away with this one.
The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines. Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.
I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either. It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State. The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.
That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents. Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses. Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.
This has been a very one-sided series to say the least. Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois. Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.
Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game. The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons. Roll with Michigan Wednesday.
|
12-30-14 |
Iowa +7 v. Ohio State |
|
71-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7
The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year. They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well. Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.
Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule. Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa. Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.
The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3). That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs. That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent. Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.
Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past. Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State. They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).
Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years. In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.
Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years. The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents. Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points. Take Iowa Tuesday.
|
12-29-14 |
Tennessee State +24 v. TCU |
|
40-60 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24
This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State. TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.
TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already. However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.
This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs. This is a huge lookahead spot for them. They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game. As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.
Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State. However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively.
Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points. That includes their last two games against some very good competition. They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs. They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.
Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road. The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.
TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons. Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons. Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State. Take Tennessee State Monday.
|
12-28-14 |
South Dakota State +13.5 v. Northern Iowa |
|
63-74 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5
I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season. I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.
So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times. However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them.
I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out. It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game. They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.
Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one. The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year. They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).
Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year. Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.
I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses. They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs. They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss. Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me. Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.
South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game. UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court. The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons. SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years. Bet South Dakota State Sunday.
|
12-27-14 |
Kentucky v. Louisville +6 |
|
58-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6
No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday. This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire. I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.
This line has gotten out of control. It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move. The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.
Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule. Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court. This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.
Louisville is the real deal this year. It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more. That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74). Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.
These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament. That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late. Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.
Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game. The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games. The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|
12-23-14 |
George Washington v. Colorado +1.5 |
|
53-50 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5
The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15. They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.
While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games. I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests.
They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.
To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers. Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.
George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado. This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg). The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced. Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio. They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.
The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes. Take Colorado Tuesday.
|
12-22-14 |
Columbia v. Connecticut -7 |
|
65-80 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on UConn -7
The defending champion UConn Huskies have not gotten off to the start that they wanted at 4-4. Due to this poor start, they are undervalued at this point of the season. They certainly aren't as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate.
UConn has lost two games on buzzer-beating three points against Texas (54-55) and Yale (44-45). Its other two losses came against two of the better teams in the country in West Virginia (68-78) and Duke (66-56).
I have been impressed with the Huskies in a couple of their wins with a 65-57 win over College of Charleston and a 75-64 triumph over Dayton, both on neutral courts. While this game against Columbia is technically on a neutral court, there's no question the Huskies will have the home-court advantage since it's being played in Bridgeport, CT.
Columbia is a team that comes in overvalued due to its 6-3 start and its five returning starters. Well, it lost one of those starters to a season-ending foot injury, and that was last year's leading scorer in Alex Rosenberg (16.0 ppg).
The Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they played Kentucky tough in a 10-point road loss as 26-point underdogs. Well, that was the only quality opponent they have faced this season. They have lost to both Stony Brook and Loyola-MD, while their six wins have come against Wagner, Lehigh, Farleigh Dickinsion, American, Bucknell and Hofstra.
The Huskies are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight off their slow start and their 10-point loss to Duke on December 18th. Columbia last played on December 20th and will only have one day to prepare for UConn. The Huskies have a big edge in rest and preparation coming into this one as a result.
UConn is 10-1 ATS after playing its last game as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two years. Columbia is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win. UConn is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 neutral site games. The Huskies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss. Take UConn Monday.
|
12-21-14 |
Harvard +10 v. Virginia |
Top |
27-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* Harvard/Virginia CBB Sunday Early Riser on Harvard +10
The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about. They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.
Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg). Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.
I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now. I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.
They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite. They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home before reeling off three straight double-digits victories over Northeastern (60-46), Vermont (64-52) and Boston (70-56).
Saunders (20.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) has proven to be one of the best players in the entire country this year. Plus, the team has a ton of balance. Chambers (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg) and Moundou-Missi (9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg) are the other two returning starters players playing well. Corbin Miller (8.5 ppg) and Jonah Travis (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have also offered key contributions.
Virginia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now. Due to its 10-0 start that has included a 6-2 ATS record in lined games, the betting public is quick to jump on the Cavaliers. Yes, they won the ACC last year and are still a very talented team this year with what they have back, but they should not be laying 10 points to a Harvard team that is one of the best that they have faced all season.
This is an excellent spot for the Crimson as well. They just finished up finals, so their minds will be free and clear. Throw in the fact that their last game was on December 8th 13 days ago, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on the court. So, they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for Virginia, which is a huge advantage. They'll also be highly motivated to face at Top 25 team.
Virginia, on the other hand, has not had hardly any time at all to prepare for Harvard. It last played on Thursday, December 18th in a 70-54 home win over Cleveland State as a 17-point favorite. It has only had two days to prepare for Harvard, which is a massive disadvantage considering the Crimson have had two weeks.
Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two teams who don't shoot many 3 point shots (
|
12-20-14 |
Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa |
|
56-44 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Night UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +2.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.
This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014. That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.
The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).
Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.
The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat. They are 9-1 with their only loss coming in double-overtime to VCU on the road by a final of 87-93 last time out as 7-point underdogs. That was not a bad loss at all as VCU is one of the better teams in the country. I have no doubt that UNI is the better team in this one and will pull off the upset over Iowa.
The Hawkeyes just have not impressed me at all this year. They are off to an 8-3 start, and while it has come against a decently tough schedule, their three losses just stand out like a sore thumb. Especially their 57-71 loss to Texas at Madison Square Garden and their 75-90 home loss to Iowa State last time out. Their only good win came against North Carolina, which shot 27.9% in the loss to essentially hand the Hawkeyes the win.
UNI has played Iowa very tough through the years, and 2014 will be no exception. The Panthers and Hawkeyes have actually split their last eight meetings with the Panthers winning four and the Hawkeyes winning four. Well, this may be the best team UNI has had in the history of its program.
The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. UNI is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games. These five trends combined for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Panthers. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.
|
12-20-14 |
Syracuse +12 v. Villanova |
|
77-82 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Syracuse/Villanova FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Syracuse +12
While it's clear that Syracuse is not as dominant as it has been in year's past, getting 12 points here with the Orange is simply a gift from the oddsmakers. They are clearly way undervalued right now after their slow start to the season, while Villanova is way overvalued.
The Orange are just 6-3 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point already. They lost to California, Michigan and St. John's, but beat Iowa and Louisiana Tech. You can bet that head coach Jim Boeheim is using this slow start as a great teaching point for his players, and this young squad is only going to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.
Villanova is clearly one of the best teams in the country. I have even backed the Wildcats this season on a couple of occasions. However, with a 10-0 start that includes a 7-1-1 ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. The betting public is all over the Wildcats after five straight covers, and this number has been set so high that it's now time to fade them.
Syracuse has owned Villanova as the Wildcats have consistently struggled against the Orange's size in recent history. The Orange are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Wildcats with their only loss coming in overtime (75-71) on the road last year. The Wildcats may win this game, but it's not going to be by double-digits.
Plays against a favorite (VILLANOVA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 97-56 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|
12-20-14 |
Charlotte +14 v. Georgetown |
|
78-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +14
The Charlotte 49ers should not be catching 14 points against Georgetown today. With four returning starters and off to a solid 6-4 start, the 49ers have shown me enough to know that they can easily stay within this spread and give the Hoyas a run for their money.
Charlotte has been highly competitive all season. It has beaten some good teams like Penn State and South Carolina. Three of its four losses came by single-digits against some very good competition. It did lose to Miami 58-77, but also lost to Miami 74-77, at Davidson (86-91) and on a neutral court against George Washington (70-78).
Georgetown is way overvalued here. While the Hoyas are improved this season, they are off to just a 6-3 start this year. Yes, their three losses have come to very good teams in Wisconsin, Butler and Kansas, but their only good win came against a down Florida team by a single point (66-65). They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 78-62 at home and Robert Morris 80-66 at home. They aren't going to blow out these 49ers by more than 14 points today.
Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons. Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents. The Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Bet Charlotte Saturday.
|
12-17-14 |
Northern Colorado v. Nebraska-Omaha -3.5 |
|
82-92 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska-Omaha -3.5
This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success. They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.
Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet. They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets along the way. Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.
Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg). The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).
With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system. Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year. Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.
Just ask Marquette about it. Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd. It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss. Then, at home against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.
Carter (16.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.1 rpg)) and Patterson (13.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.0 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year. Tre-Shawn Thurman (10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year. Rostampour (9.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and White (7.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low. Tyus (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.
The Mavericks have played a brutal schedule this year with six road games against only three home games and have done a very good job of getting to 4-5 with this gauntlet. They are just 1-5 on the road, but 3-0 at home where they are outscoring teams by a whopping 25.4 points per game.
Northern Colorado has been terrible on the road and great at home as well. It is 4-0 at home with its four wins coming against some terrible teams in Black Hills State, Colorado Christian, Stetson and Florida A&M. It is 0-4 on the road where it is getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points per game. It lost at New Mexico State 65-86 and at Colorado 68-93.
Nebraska-Omaha is a perfect 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Northern Colorado is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Wednesday.
|
12-16-14 |
Alabama +12.5 v. Wichita State |
|
52-53 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5
After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.
The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season. They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).
Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season. Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.
Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year. That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite. Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.
These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite. That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's. Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.
Alabam is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game. The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss. Roll with Alabama Tuesday.
|
12-14-14 |
Samford +18 v. Wake Forest |
|
68-86 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18
This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford. I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.
Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning. It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game. It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.
The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year. Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's. They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).
Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS. Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare. I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.
They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs. They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court. They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997.
The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games. Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs. Roll with Samford Sunday.
|
12-13-14 |
Northern Iowa +7.5 v. VCU |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.
This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014. That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.
The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).
Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.
The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat. They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25. That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).
Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country. It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting. It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press. UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.
It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago. It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS. It has some really bad losses along the way. It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home. It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past. This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.
Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog. It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting. It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense. Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997. Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins. VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.
|
12-13-14 |
Utah v. Kansas -3.5 |
|
60-63 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5
Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court. However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO. It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.
I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th. It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry. All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).
Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year. It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home. It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU. It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.
The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury. His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range. Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.
Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals. The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less. Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons. The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday.
|
12-10-14 |
Colorado State v. Colorado -5.5 |
|
62-60 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5
The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15. They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.
Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting. It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game. All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).
The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters. Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent. Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.
Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15. Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule. Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.
This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle. Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.
Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State. It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.
Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games. Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win. The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Take Colorado Wednesday.
|
12-10-14 |
Northern Iowa -3 v. Denver |
|
65-55 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3
The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.
This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014. That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.
The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).
Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.
The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat. They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25. That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).
Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you. It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting. It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.
Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year. However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi.
The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68). If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.
Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins. Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.
|
12-09-14 |
Louisville v. Indiana +12 |
|
94-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12
The No. 4 Ranked Louisville Cardinals are one of the most overrated teams in the country. They returned just two starters from a team that went 31-6 last year and certainly will not be as good in 2014-15.
Those two returning starters are Chris Jones (10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and Montrezl Harrell (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who are good ones. However, the losses of Russ Smith (18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Luke Hancock (12.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) cannot be overstated.
Louisville has pretty much beaten up on a soft schedule en route to a 7-0 start. Two of its three closest wins have come against Big Ten opponents in Minnesota (81-68) and Ohio State (64-55). I believe that Indiana is better than both Minnesota and Ohio State this year.
The Hoosiers will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They returned two starters this year, including their top scorer from last season in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg last year), who just does everything for this team.
Ferrelly (17.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) has picked up where he left off last year. James Blackmon Jr. (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is one of the best freshmen in the country. He is hitting 54.2% from 3-point range. Troy Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Robert Johnson (11.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg) have also helped give the Hoosiers balanced scoring among their starting lineup.
Indiana has gotten off to a 7-1 start this season. It has beaten two of the better teams in the country along the way. It topped SMU 74-68 at home despite being a 1-point underdog in that contest. It also throttled Pittsburgh 81-69 at home as only a 2.5-point favorite.
I really like this matchup for the Hoosiers. Their offense is explosive in averaging 88.4 points per game on 52.4% shooting. They do not turn the ball over, only averaging 12 turnovers per game. That's huge because Louisville thrives on forcing turnovers in its pressing scheme. It forces 20 turnovers per game.
The Hoosiers have tremendous guards and will not be phased by the press one bit. In fact, I expect them to beat it with regularity and to get some easy buckets as a result. Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson are all guards who take care of the basketball and can fill up the score sheet.
Louisville is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game. Tom Crean is 38-22 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached. The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record. Take Indiana Tuesday.
|
12-09-14 |
Villanova -4 v. Illinois |
Top |
73-59 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4
The Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in college basketball, but somehow they continue to go under the radar. They should be much more than a 4-point favorite tonight against Illinois in this showdown inside Madison Square Garden.
The Wildcats quietly went 29-5 last year and won the Big East regular season title with a 16-2 record. With four starters back from that team, they are arguably better in 2014-15. They have opened the season a perfect 8-0 and are currently the No. 7 ranked team in the country.
The four returning starters are Darrun Hilliard (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Daniel Ochefu (5.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg). What has been amazing about this start is that the Wildcats have been much more balanced this year and have gotten contributions elsewhere.
Dylan Ennis (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg this year) leads the team in scoring. Hilliard (10.5 ppg) and Pinkston (8.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) haven't had to do as much. Kris Jenkins (9.1 ppg) and Josh Hart (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) have joined Ennis as key contributors that maybe not many expected they would be coming into the season.
The Wildcats have not only played cupcakes, either. Their wins over VCU (77-53) and Michigan (60-55) on neutral courts prove that they are for real. They are scoring 75.4 points per game and allowing just 55.7 points per contest, outscoring the opposition by nearly 20 points per game on the season.
Illinois was expected to be improved in the Big Ten this season after going 20-15 last year. That's because they returned all five starters from that squad. Unfortunately for them, Tracy Abrams (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) suffered a season-ending knee injury in November and is out for the season, giving them essentially four returning starters.
Rayvonte Rice (15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg last year) is their best returning starter by far. But Nnanna Egwu (6.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Malcolm Hill (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Kendrick Nunn (6.2 ppg) are counted as their other three returning starters, which is not very impressive in my book.
Illinois has gotten off to a solid 7-1 start this season, but it has come against mostly weak competition. Its seven wins have come against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor and American. Its lone loss came in its only true road game in a 61-70 setback at Miami, which is the best team it has played yet. Villanova is better than Miami.
Villanova is a sensational 44-19 ATS in its last 63 games overall. The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes. Bet Villanova Tuesday.
|
12-07-14 |
San Diego v. UCLA -9.5 |
|
68-75 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5
The UCLA Bruins have certainly been tested in the early going in 2014. Their two losses have come to Oklahoma and North Carolina, which are two of the best teams in the country. I believe they are undervalued right now because they lost to those two teams.
The Bruins have taken care of all other comers. Their six wins this year have all come by 12 points or more, including a 77-63 home win over a very good Long Beach State team as a 10-point favorite, and a 73-45 home win over CS-Fullerton last time out as a 16-point favorite.
San Diego (4-4) has no business only catching single-digits against UCLA tonight. The Toreros are coming off an 18-17 season last year and aren't much better in 2014. They have lost to the four best teams they have played, and their four wins have come against SE Missouri State, Florida A&M, Western Michigan and Princeton.
The Bruins are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 24.6 points per game. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCLA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.
The Bruins are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite. The Toreros are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. The Bruins are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Toreros are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Roll with UCLA Sunday.
|
12-06-14 |
Alabama +8 v. Xavier |
|
84-97 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8
After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They are off to a solid start at 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State 74-84.
The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season. They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).
Randolph (19.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Cooper (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season. Tulanetransfer Ricky Tarrant (14.0 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.
Xavier is a team I have pegged to take a step back this year off a 21-13 season a year ago. That's because it lost three starters in Semaj Christon (17.0 ppg, 4.2 apg Last year), Justin Martin (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Isaiah Philmore (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg). Two starters are back in Dee Davis (7.7 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Matt Sainbrook (10.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), but the Musketeers obviously lose most of their scoring from last year.
Xavier has losses to UTEP (73-77) and Long Beach State (70-73) this year that are obviously concerning. I believe it is overvalued because it is 4-0 at home this season with four blowout wins. However, those four wins came against Northern Arizona, Long Beach State, Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, which is not impressive at all in my book.
These four returning starters for Alabama will be out for revenge after losing a tight one 74-77 at home to Xavier last season. The Crimson Tide are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Saturday games. Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games. The Musketeers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|
12-05-14 |
Florida +7.5 v. Kansas |
|
65-71 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* Florida/Kansas ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Florida +7.5
The Florida Gators are undervalued due to their 3-3 start to the 2014-15 season. They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight, and I'll back them as a result.
Florida had big expectations coming into the year despite only returning one starter. This young, talented bunch hasn't played up to par in the early going, but a lot of that has had to due with injuries. The Gators are finally getting healthy.
Florida could easily be 5-1 right now, too. Two of its three losses came to very good Miami (69-67) and Georgetown (66-65) teams by a combined three points. The other was a 64-75 loss to highly-ranked UNC. So, the Gators are obviously battle-tested right now.
Billy Donnovan is one of the best head coaches in the country. He is actually enjoying this slow start because it has allowed him to get his player's attention. They will respond with a big effort tonight against Kansas, especially since they last played on November 28th and have had ample time to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Jayhawks.
"Right now, the truth is slammed in our face, which I think is great," coach Billy Donovan told the school's official website. "A lot of times, in your nonconference scheduling, when you're not playing against high-level competition, it's hard to get to the truth. For these guys ... it's bringing them closer to the truth in finding out who they are and who we are."
Kansas only brings back two starters from last year and lost its best two players in Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid. It is off to a 5-1 start this season, but I haven't been that impressed with this team. They lost 40-72 to Kentucky to have their true colors show. Their best win came in a 61-56 victory over a Michigan State team that isn't that good in 2014-15.
Florida is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games coming in. The Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC foes. The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents. Take Florida Friday.
|
12-04-14 |
Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State |
|
77-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* Arkansas/Iowa State ESPN 2 National TV KNOCKOUT on Arkansas +7.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They are off to a perfect 6-0 start that has them currently sitting as the No. 18 ranked team in the land. This squad is the real deal, and they will show it tonight against No. 20 Iowa State.
Arkansas went 22-12 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament, which has lit a fire under these players. You could see this fast start coming considering it returned three starters from last year and several key reserves.
The three starters back are each of their top three scorers in Kye Madden (12.7 ppg, 2.8 apg last year), Bobby Portis (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), and Michael Qualls (11.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg). Also back are key reserves Alandise Harris (9.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Anthlon Bell (7.2 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49 blocks).
The Razorbacks have not only been winning, they have been dominating. Five of their six wins this season have come by 16 points or more. The only exception was an impressive 78-72 road win at SMU as a 4-point underdog. That SMU team is the real deal, and it shows that the Razorbacks can go on the road and beat a good team like Iowa State.
The Razorbacks also have one of the deepest teams in the country. They have a whopping nine players averaging at least 5.2 points per game on the season. Leading the way has been Qualls (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Portis (14.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Bell (13.2 ppg) and Madden (11.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.2 rpg).
Arkansas is only one of four Division 1 teams to score at least 78 points in every game, and it leads the SEC at 90.0 points per game. What I really love about this team is that it is unselfish. Indeed, the Razorbacks rank among the nation's leaders with 20.7 assists per game.
If you have followed me the last few seasons, you would know that I have backed Iowa State with regularity. However, I simply believe it is overvalued in this spot tonight. This is a very tough spot for the Cyclones, and a great one for the Razorbacks.
Iowa State just played on Tuesday in a 96-59 win over Lamar. That means it has had just one day to prepare for Arkansas. The Razorbacks last played on Sunday in a 94-77 win over Iona. That means they have had a full three days to prepare for Iowa State. That extra preparation and rest is the biggest reason I'm backing Arkansas tonight.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA ST) - after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Arkansas Thursday.
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12-03-14 |
UTEP +6 v. Colorado State |
|
62-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
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15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UTEP +6
The UTEP Miners are my pick to win Conference USA in 2014-15. They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that squad. I really love Tim Floyd's mentality as a defensive-minded head coach because he gets his players to go all out on that end of the floor.
The four returning starters are Julian Washburn (13.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), C.J. Cooper (9.6 ppg, 3.0 apg), Vince Hunter (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Matt Wilms (5.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg). Cedrick Lang (6.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is a key returning reserve from last year's 21-win team.
I have been very impressive with UTEP's 4-1 start this season because it has come against such a difficult schedule. It beat Washington State (65-52) and New Mexico State (77-76) at home, while also topping Princeton (62-56) and Xavier (77-73) on a neutral court. Its lone loss came to Washington (65-68) on a neutral court by three points.
Hunter (18.4 ppg, 12.6 rpg) has become an absolute beast after winning the C-USA Freshman of the Year award last year. He's one of the best players in the country that not too many know about. Lang (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Washburn (10.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Cooper (9.8 ppg, 4.4 apg) have all picked up where they left off last year as well.
Colorado State is way overvalued right now due to its perfect 6-0 start to the season. This is a team that went just 16-16 last year and one that does return three starters, but it is not as good of a team at UTEP, yet it is getting treated like the better team with this 6-point spread.
The Rams' six wins have come against the likes of Montana (83-66), Georgia State (80-70), Mercer (75-62), Missouri State (76-61), Pacific (75-64) and UC-Santa Barbara (65-63). I would argue that all six of Colorado State's opponents thus far are worse than at least four of the five teams that UTEP has played. This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Rams to this point.
UTEP is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Miners are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. UTEP is 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons. The Miners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by 6 points or less.
Colorado State is 1-10 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Rams are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 games overall. Colorado State is 5-19-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. These teams met twice last year with UTEP winning 82-74 at home and losing 58-62 on the road. Bet UTEP Wednesday.
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12-03-14 |
Michigan State v. Notre Dame -2 |
|
78-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
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15* Michigan State/Notre Dame ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They were a big disappointment last year as they went just 15-17 and lost several key players throughout the season due to injury and suspension.
Star guard Jerian Grant was suspended after the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue. With Grant, the Fighting Irish were 8-4, and without him they were 7-13. He averaged 19.2 points and 6.2 assists per game prior to his suspension.
Grant is one of three returning starters for the Fighting Irish this season. The other two are key contributors in G/F Pat Connaughton (13.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) and F Zach Auguste (6.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg). Also back are key reserves Demetrius Jackson (6.0 ppg) and Steve Vasturia (5.0 ppg).
Notre Dame is off to an impressive 6-1 start this season with its only loss coming to Providence (74-75) by a single point on a neutral court. All six of its wins have come by 13 points or more, including an 81-68 victory as a 5-point favorite against a very good UMass team on a neutral floor as well.
Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 18.4 points and 7.1 assists per game. Auguste (15.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Jackson (11.9 ppg) have all taken their games up a notch as well. V.J. Beachem (8.4 ppg) and Vasturia (7.1 ppg) have been solid role players to boot.
Michigan State is clearly down this season as it already has two losses. Yes, those losses came to Duke (61-71) and Kansas (56-61), but it also barely beat Navy (64-59) in the opener. That's also a Kansas team that was blown out by Kentucky 40-72 and is clearly down this year as well.
It was obvious that the Spartans were going to struggle early considering they lost three starters from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg). Also, top recruit Javon Bess is sidelined with an injury right now.
Plays on a favorite (NOTRE DAME) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 14-4 ATS off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997. Michigan State is 19-35 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Take Notre Dame Wednesday.
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12-03-14 |
Virginia Tech +10 v. Penn State |
|
58-61 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
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15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +10
The Penn State Nittany Lions are certainly an improved team this season with four returning starters from last year. They are off to a 6-1 start this season, but they are overvalued because of their record. They easily could be 3-4 right now instead of 6-1.
Indeed, the Nittany Lions have four wins by 8 points or less this season. The only two exceptions were home wins over lowly Morgan State (61-48) and Fordham (73-54). They lost to Charlotte (97-106), and barely beat Cornell (72-71), USC (63-61), Akron (78-72) and Bucknell (88-80). If all those teams can stay within single-digits of the Nittany Lions, so can the Hokies.
Virginia Tech came into the season with very little expectations after going just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play. The outlook is much better in 2014-15 thanks to the signing of Buzz Williams, who has gone 153-86 in his seven years as a head coach with Marquette.
He steps into a good situation as the Hokies return four starters and a solid sixth man from last year. Back are Adam Smith (11.0 ppg), Ben Emelogu (10.5 ppg), Devin Wilson (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Joey van Zegeren (6.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg). The sixth man is C.J. Barskdale (8.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg).
Williams also signed a tremendous recruiting class that will step in and held right away. Smith (14.3 ppg) and Van Zegeren (10.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg) have taken their games to the next level. Justin Bibbs (12.2 ppg) and Ahmed Hill (8.3 ppg) have played well as freshmen right away. Bibbs is a top-75 recruit from the previous class, while Hill is a top-60 recruit who score 3,000 points in HS and followed Buzz from Marquette.
The Hokies are off to a solid 4-2 start this season. They did lose to Appalachian State (63-65) and Northern Iowa (54-73), but that Northern Iowa team is one of the most underrated in the country and will challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Title. The Hokies are coming off their two best performances of the year with a 78-63 win over Miami Ohio as a 4-point favorite, and an 83-63 home victory against Morgan State.
Penn State is 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons. The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Nittany Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Penn State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Penn State is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games overall. It has no business being favored by double-digits tonight. Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.
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12-03-14 |
Northeastern v. Harvard -7 |
Top |
46-60 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Harvard -7
The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about. They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.
Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chanbers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg). Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.
I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now. I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.
They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite. They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home as a 7-point favorite last time out, failing to cover, which is another reason I believe this line has been set lower than it should be.
That's the same UMass team that beat Northeastern 79-54 as a 6-point home favorite on November 26th. That wasn't the only troubling result for this Northeastern squad. It also lost 44-66 to Navy on a neutral court as a 13-point favorite. Those two results show that Northeastern doesn't belong on the same court as Harvard.
The Crimson are 14-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%. The Crimson are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Harvard is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Crimson are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Harvard is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Northeastern is 0-6 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. Bet Harvard Wednesday.
|
12-02-14 |
Nebraska-Omaha +14.5 v. Kansas State |
Top |
66-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
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20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5
This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success. They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.
Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet. They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way. Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.
Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg). The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).
With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system. Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year. Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.
Just ask Marquette about it. Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd. It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss. Then, in its last game against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.
Carter (16.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg)) and Patterson (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.4 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year. Tre-Shawn Thuran (10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year. Rostampour (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and White (9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low. Tyus (8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.
Kansas State (3-3) is clearly down this season. Two of its three wins have come at home against Southern Utah (96-68) and Missouri-KC (83-73) with the latter result providing a troubling sign of things to come for the Wildcats.
They have gone 1-3 in their last four games since, which included a 60-69 loss at Long Beach State as a 2.5-point favorite. They did have a good showing in a 68-72 loss to Arizona on a neutral court, but their 47-70 loss to Pittsburgh last time out in that same tournament shows that this team has a long way to go.
The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. Nebraska-Omaha is 6-2 ATS in its lst eight road games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Summit league foes. Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.
|
12-01-14 |
Rutgers +9.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
69-64 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in their second season under form NBA coach Eddie Jordan. This team should be vastly improved this year off a 12-21 campaign in Jordan's first season last year.
Jordan has three starters back from that team, including his top two scorers in G Myles Mack (14.9 ppg, 4.3 apg last year) and F/C Kadeem Jack (14.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg). In these two seniors, Jordan has some fine leadership and go-to scorers. Also back is sophomore F Junio Etou (5.34 ppg, 4.6 rpg).
Rutgers has gotten off to a shaky 3-3 start this season, but it has played a tough schedule. It has a win over Vanderbilt by a final of 68-65 on November 28th as a 5.5-point underdog. It followed that up with a 26-45 loss to Virginia last time out as an 18.5-point dog. The Cavaliers are currently ranked 8th in the country, so I'm not going to worry about that loss too much.
My choice to go with Rutgers tonight is more of a fade of Clemson than anything. I simply believe that this team is not that good and should not be laying 9.5 points to the Scarlet Knights tonight. Asking the Tigers to win by double-digits to cover is asking too much.
Clemson is off to a 4-2 start this season, but against a much softer schedule than Rutgers. Its last three wins have all come by single-digits over Nevada (59-50), LSU (64-61) and High Point (62-59) with that 3-point win over High Point coming at home, and the other two on neutral courts.
While those three narrow wins are all concerning for the Tigers, the biggest evidence that they aren't a very good team has come from their two losses. They lost at home to Winthrop (74-77) and on a neutral court to Gardner-Webb (70-72).
The Tigers did return four players this season that played significant minutes for them last year, but none of those four averaged double-digits scoring last season. They lost their best player in K.J. McDaniels (17.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg last year) to the NBA, and they simply haven't been nearly as good without him.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 121-72 (62.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4-plus points per game.
Rutgers is 48-28 ATS in its last 76 games following a loss by 15 points or more. The Tigers are 33-60 ATS in their last 93 games coming off two more more consecutive ATS wins. Brad Brownell is 4-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less in all games he has coached. Brownell is 2-11 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Clemson. Take Rutgers Monday.
|
11-30-14 |
Richmond v. Northern Iowa -7.5 |
|
50-55 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.
This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014. That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.
The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).
Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.
The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat. They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more. The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well. Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.
Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with. THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.
Richmond is a team on the decline. It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year. They do return three starters from last year, though.
Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points. The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog. I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.
The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons. The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years.
Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years. The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.
|
11-29-14 |
Nevada v. Nebraska-Omaha -4.5 |
|
54-78 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5
This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success. They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.
Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet. They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way. Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.
Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg). The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).
With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system. Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year. Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.
Just ask Marquette about it. Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd. It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss. So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.
Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year. It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).
To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going. They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court. Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home. That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.
Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons. The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.
|
11-28-14 |
Gonzaga v. St. John's +6.5 |
|
73-66 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5
The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play. Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.
Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg). Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).
All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament. The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.
Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season. Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg). So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly. They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.
Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start. However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight. It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.
There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year. They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg). They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.
St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game. Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more. They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot. They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright. Take St. John's Friday.
|
11-28-14 |
Bradley v. TCU -7 |
Top |
49-57 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7
The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12. They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.
Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad. That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12. Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).
TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more. It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.
Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either. They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference. They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg). The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).
It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least. It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents. The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite. They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38). It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.
Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Bet TCU Friday.
|
11-28-14 |
Oklahoma +7.5 v. Wisconsin |
|
56-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5
Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for. It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.
The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament. They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game. Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.
Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country. It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65. Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.
One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday. They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST. So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after. Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.
Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years. Roll with Oklahoma Friday.
|
11-26-14 |
Tulsa v. Oklahoma State -2.5 |
|
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5
Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA. However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.
The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season. Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).
Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level. Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.
Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach. He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014. He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).
Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown. Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77. Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35). That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80. That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.
Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games. Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State. Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.
|
11-26-14 |
UCLA v. Oklahoma -3.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
101 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season. They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.
Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14. All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior. They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).
Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility. Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.
Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game. Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.
While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA. They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg). I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.
The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA. Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg). These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.
|
11-25-14 |
Maryland v. Iowa State -5 |
Top |
72-63 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about. They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.
Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut. It returns three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg last year), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).
Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away. This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools. Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.
Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15. He is already averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 3.7 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.
Niang (22.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Morris (11.0 ppg, 8.0 apg, 4.3 rpg) and Hogue (15.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season. A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (14.0 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.
The Cyclones have opened 3-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82), Georgia State (81-58) and Alabama (84-74). That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.
Alabama was 3-0 prior to losing yesterday by double-digits to the Cyclones. Iowa State got back two key players from two-game suspensions for that game against the Crimson Tide. Matt Thomas scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his first game game, while Abdel Nader added 4 points in the win.
This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones. It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.
Maryland has no business only being a 5-point underdog in this game. It lost five key players from last year's team that went 17-15. Three of those were Seth Allen (13.4 ppg), Nick Faust (9.4 ppg) and CHarles Mitchell (6.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg).
The Terrapins are overvalued due to their 4-0 start against weak competition. Their first three wins all came again home against Wagner, Central Connecticut State and Fordham. Their fourth was a 78-73 win against Arizona State yesterday, which is the same ASU team that only beat Bethune-Cookman 49-39 at home as a 23-point favorite. This is by far the Terrapins' stiffest test of the season as they clearly aren't as battle-tested as the Cyclones.
The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record. The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. Bet Iowa State Tuesday.
|
11-25-14 |
Nebraska-Omaha +15.5 v. Nebraska |
|
67-80 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5
This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success. They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.
Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet. They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way. Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.
Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg). The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).
With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system. Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year. Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.
Just ask Marquette about it. Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference. It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking. They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did. Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.
These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin. Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite. There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.
The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.
|
11-24-14 |
Alabama v. Iowa State -6 |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about. They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.
Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut. They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).
Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away. This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools. Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.
Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15. He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.
Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season. A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.
The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58). That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.
Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well. It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning. Also, all three of those games were at home.
This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones. It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.
Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012. While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent. The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).
Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite. The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite. The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight. Roll with Iowa State Monday.
|
11-23-14 |
USC v. Penn State -6.5 |
|
61-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15. They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.
Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg). Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.
Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season. Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season. Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.
USC is a team in rebuilding mode. It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play. Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg). They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).
USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule. Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams. It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. This team simply is not very good based on these results.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997. The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days. Roll with Penn State Sunday.
|
11-22-14 |
Colorado -1.5 v. Wyoming |
Top |
33-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5
I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.
I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite. I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out. I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.
Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters. Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.
Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year. I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.
Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games. It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State. Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds. Bet Colorado Saturday.
|
11-21-14 |
Temple +18.5 v. Duke |
|
54-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5
The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.
Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22. Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple. It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.
I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season. It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg). They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.
Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one. The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year. It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year. So, that win is not as bad as it looks.
The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive. Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA. It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.
Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country. However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple. This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.
They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday. I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8.
The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight. I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.
Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less. Take Temple Friday.
|
11-20-14 |
SMU v. Indiana +3 |
Top |
68-74 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3
The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight. SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking. That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.
Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season. It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament. It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.
SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues. He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year. That means they are down to two returning starters. They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.
Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year. Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).
I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already. It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams. It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season. They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.
"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."
Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12. They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field. Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.
It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight. "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."
The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3. Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana. Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana. The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Bet Indiana Thursday.
|
11-20-14 |
Drexel +10 v. Miami (FL) |
|
46-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10
The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday. They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.
Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year. It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here. This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.
Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's. It didn't get destroyed in either game. It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.
Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more. That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg). Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg). Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.
Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997.
The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Roll with Drexel Thursday.
|
11-19-14 |
Oklahoma -2.5 v. Creighton |
Top |
63-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season. They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.
Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14. All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior. They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).
Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility. Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.
Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard. However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here. McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.
The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg). The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).
I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State. It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.
Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997. Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.
|
11-18-14 |
Michigan State v. Duke -7 |
|
71-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7
Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15. I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.
Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg). It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.
The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.
Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15. It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg). It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.
The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception. They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th. That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year. The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.
Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998. That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite. Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.
Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Duke Tuesday.
|
11-17-14 |
Texas Southern v. Indiana -23 |
|
64-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23
The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12. They finished just 17-15.
Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced. They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg). They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).
Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell. Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year. Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.
The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points. They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points. They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.
Texas Southern is not a very good team. It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis. Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.
It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game. They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).
Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg). However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season. Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.
It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington. It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64). If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.
Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997. Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997. Bet Indiana Monday.
|
11-16-14 |
Alcorn State v. Texas -28.5 |
|
53-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5
The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.
Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner. The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.
Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low. PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year. SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.
The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad. Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes. Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.
Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year. While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves. They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday. If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.
Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas. Bet Texas Sunday.
|
11-15-14 |
Manhattan v. Florida State -10 |
|
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10
The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion. They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15
I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad. They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg). Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.
The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point. Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.
The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year. They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year. They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.
The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg). They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg). So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.
Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of
|
11-14-14 |
Drexel v. Colorado -14 |
Top |
48-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14
The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country. They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament. They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.
The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48. They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48. They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.
The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate. So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.
Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game. He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.
Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes. This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.
Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record. While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.
They return just two starters from last year. However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury. The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg). They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.
The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons. They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg). They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg). It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.
Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting. It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well. Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.
Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Colorado Friday.
|
04-07-14 |
Kentucky v. Connecticut +3 |
Top |
54-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* UConn/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Connecticut +3
The UConn Huskies have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament. That's evident by the fact that they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in all five games despite being an underdog in four of them. They are using being disrespected as motivation to win a title.
People are quick to dismiss the fact that the Huskies have forced Michigan State and Florida into their worst games of the season over the past two rounds. They beat the Spartans 60-54 while holding them to 39.1% shooting and forcing 16 turnovers. They beat the Gators 63-53 while limiting them to 38.8% shooting.
Both Keith Appling and Scottie Wilbekin has horrible games at the point guard position due to the perimeter defense of Ryan Boatright, who combined with Shabazz Napier to form the best defensive guard tandem in the country. They will make life hell on the Harrison twins for Kentucky tonight, which will be a big key to victory.
Napier (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.9 apg) has been the best player in the tournament thus far. He has scored an average of 21.0 points per game, and even when he only had 12 against Florida, DeAndre Daniels stepped up with 20 points and 10 rebounds, Boatright added 13 points and 6 boards, and Niles Giffey had 11 points. This clearly isn't a one man show.
Kentucky has been fortunate to make it this far thanks to three last-second game-winners from Aaron Harrison. This Wildcats' team filled with freshman stars doesn't like when one guy gets all the credit. Harrison has gotten all the credit from the media because of his clutch shots, but in all reality it's not all him. I believe that could work against Kentucky and divide this locker room, rather than bring it together.
The Wildcats remain without Willie Cauley-Stein, which makes them extremely vulnerable defensively. Cauley-Stein is averaging 6.8 points. 6.1 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game this season. No other player on the team averages one block per game. Without his presence in the middle, this is just an average defensive team. I look for UConn to exploit it by attacking the rim without fear tonight.
UConn is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. UConn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Bet UConn Monday.
|
04-05-14 |
Kentucky -1.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
74-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
74 h 37 m |
Show
|
20* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -1.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are 10 times better today than they were in the first half of the season. This young team filled with freshmen has improved by leaps and bounds. They now have the confidence after winning several close games to get here to come up big in a game of this caliber.
The Wildcats have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming to Florida (60-61) by a single point in the SEC Championship. That's the same Florida team that is in the midst of a 30-game winning streak right now.
Kentucky has had the toughest route to get to the Final Four. It has had to go through Kansas State, No. 1 Wichita State, No. 4 Louisville and No. 2 Michigan. It clearly feels like it can beat anyone in the country after going through that gauntlet.
I believe Wisconsin is a worse team than each of the last three teams that Kentucky has beaten. The Badgers were fortunate to beat Oregon in the second round after erasing a double-digit halftime deficit. They also needed overtime to get by Arizona.
Like Oregon gave Wisconsin trouble due to its athleticism, Kentucky is going to give the Badgers all it wants and more in the athleticism department. The Wildcats are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 41-31. The Badgers are only outrebounding opponents 33-32 on the year. Kentucky doesn't start a player that is shorter than 6', 6" and it's ability to win the boards will be the difference in this one.
Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in its last 14 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in all tournament games this season. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the last three seasons. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Wildcats at 8-1 SU in neutral court games this year. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|
04-05-14 |
Connecticut v. Florida -6 |
|
63-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
71 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* UConn/Florida Final Four No-Brainer on Florida -6
The Florida Gators (36-2) have proven to be more than worthy of their top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have now won 30 straight games while dominating their way to the Final Four. They are the hottest team in the field, hands down.
All four of Florida’s victories in the big dance have come by double-digits with wins over Albany (67-55), Pittsburgh (61-45), UCLA (79-68) and Dayton (62-52). No other team can even come close to claiming that. Now, the Gators only have to win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.
What makes Florida so difficult to deal with is its ability to play all kinds of different defenses. Billy Donovan will deploy man-to-man, full court press, and several different zones depending on the opponent. Give him a whole week to prepare for UConn, and you can bet he’ll give his team the best chance to win by doing everything they can to shut down Shabazz Napier.
Napier has single-handedly carried UConn this far, but his run of greatness ends Saturday. He has averaged 23.3 points per game in the big dance while scoring 19-plus points in all four games. Even though he did score 26 in a 65-64 home win over the Gators in their first meeting this year, he'll be up against a much better team that has not lost since that contest. This is a revenge game for Florida, which only adds fuel to its fire.
The Gators are led in scoring by Casey Prather (13.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Scottie Wilbekin (13.4 ppg) and Michael Frazier II (12.6 ppg). Patric Young (10.8 ppg, 6. rpg), Dorian Finney-Smith (8.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Will Yeguete (5.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) handle the dirty work inside. This is just a very balanced team that can beat you a number of different ways, but they do so mostly with their 3rd-ranked scoring defense (57.6 ppg) in the country.
UConn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following four consecutive wins. Florida is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Rarely will you get this team as this small of a favorite against anyone, and we'll take advantage as the Gators likely win their 5th straight game by double-digits. Take Florida Saturday.
|
04-03-14 |
Minnesota v. SMU -3 |
|
65-63 |
Loss |
-106 |
24 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* Minnesota/SMU NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on SMU -3
I've said all along that SMU is the best team not to make the field of 68 in the big dance. I am sticking by that statement as I look for the Mustangs to prove that they are the best team outside of the NCAA Tournament by not only beating Minnesota for the title, but also covering the 3-point spread.
There are several reasons to back SMU in this one. My personal favorite reason is that they played the early game on Tuesday in the semifinals, so players and coaches were able to watch Minnesota play in the late game to get down its tendencies.
The Golden Gophers would go to overtime against Florida State, so the Mustangs got an extra long look at them. Head coach Larry Brown will have a tremendous game plan for his team coming into this one because of it.
Sure, it's concerning that Rick Pitino can give son Richard some advice on how to beat SMU, but let's be honest. Minnesota is nowhere near the same team as Louisville. The Cardinals' press really hurt the Mustangs this season, but the Golden Gophers' press is laughable compared to that of Louisville.
The Mustangs are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They give up just 62.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents average 70.4 points on 44.0% shooting. They are also efficient offensively, scoring 71.2 points per game on 48.3% shooting.
SMU's route to get here has been much tougher than Minnesota's. The Mustangs have had to beat three teams from major division 1 conferences in LSU, California and Clemson. The Golden Gophers have only had to beat one, which came against FSU in overtime. The other three were against High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all at home by 8 points or fewer.
SMU is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet SMU Thursday.
|
04-01-14 |
Minnesota v. Florida State -1.5 |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State -1.5
The Florida State Seminoles (22-13) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-13) square off in the NIT Semifinals tonight in Madison Square Garden. I look for the Seminoles to win this game and advance to the Championship behind their gritty defense.
Both teams will be motivated, but I believe the motivation is greater for the Seminoles. They actually lost to the Golden Gophers on the road by a final of 61-71 on December 3 earlier this season. They turned the ball over 17 times, and they'll want revenge from that defeat.
I've been much more impressed with FSU's path to get here. It did struggled with Florida Gulf Coast before beating Georgetown and Louisiana Tech, which are both better teams than anything Minnesota faced. The Golden Gophers have beaten High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all by 8 points or fewer at home.
The Seminoles only allow 66.4 points per game on 39.9% shooting, while the Gophers give up 68.0 points per game on 42.5% shooting. FSU has been improved on offense this year, too, scoring 71.1 points per game on 46.8% shooting. Minnesota is putting up 71.7 points on 44.8% shooting.
Minnesota is just 5-10 in all road games this season, while Florida State is 10-8 in games away from home. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games, while the Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. FSU is 10-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Seminoles are 12-3 ATS off a home game this year. Bet Florida State Tuesday.
|
03-30-14 |
Kentucky -2 v. Michigan |
Top |
75-72 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
25* Elite Eight GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2
The Kentucky Wildcats represent one of my strongest plays of the NCAA Tournament as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Elite Eight. I look for their athleticism and talent to overwhelm the Wolverines, who are the most overrated team left in the tournament.
Kentucky has played the toughest schedule to get to this point. It has beaten Kansas State, Wichita State and Louisville. This young team has only gotten better as the season has gone on, and they are playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. I look for that to continue against Michigan, which is a lesser opponent than both Wichita State and Louisville.
The Wolverines were on the right side of almost all of their close games this season, including a 73-71 victory over Tennessee last round. Their luck runs out today. Michigan has relied on the 3-pointer (40.2%) to get this far, but Kentucky's length at all positions will take away that strength. The Wildcats only allow 31.8% shooting from 3-point range this year.
The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kentucky is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games. Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. These four trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kentucky Sunday.
|
03-29-14 |
Dayton +10 v. Florida |
Top |
52-62 |
Push |
0 |
19 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* Dayton/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Dayton +10
I was on both of these teams in the Sweet 16. I had Dayton +3.5 in an outright win over Stanford (82-72) in the Sweet 16 while also backing Florida -4.5 in a blowout victory over UCLA (79-68). While I have been heavy on both teams, I have no doubt the right move is to take the points on the Flyers in the Elite Eight.
Dayton has been underrated all season. My biggest reason for backing it last round was the fact that it had the two best wins in the tournament to get to the Sweet 16 in Ohio State and Syracuse. It also beat Gonzaga and California while losing to Baylor (66-67) by a single point in the same tournament in non-conference action earlier this season. The Flyers are 41-19 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games, so they have been underrated for quite some time.
Florida was my pick to win the Big Dance coming into the Tournament, but now it's time to fade it as it is clearly overvalued as a double-digit favorite here. The Gators won't have the same kind of home-court advantage they had in the first three rounds. Dayton should have a very good following in this true neutral court setting.
What makes the Flyers so difficult to deal with is that they shoot 46.5% as a team and 37.5% from 3-point range, which are both better than Florida. They start five guys that can shoot the 3-pointer. Jordan Sibert (12.5 ppg, 43.0% 3-pointers), Devin Oliver (11.9 ppg, 38.4%), Dyshawn Pierre (11.0 ppg, 39.7%), Vee Sanford (9.7 ppg, 30.2%) and Khari Price (6.4 ppg, 39.7%) all share the ball well to find the open man for the long ball.
Dayton is 6-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse this season. The Flyers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. Dayton is 7-1 ATS in its last eight game overall. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Flyers. Bet Dayton Saturday.
|
03-28-14 |
Kentucky +4.5 v. Louisville |
|
74-69 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Kentucky/Louisville Sweet 16 Rivalry Play on Kentucky +4.5
The Kentucky Wildcats have saved their best basketball for last. This has become a staple for recent John Calipari teams because they are so young, so they go through growing pains early in the year before it all comes together late. That's precisely what has happened for the Wildcats in 2013-14.
Indeed, the Wildcats made it to the SEC Title game before bowing out to Florida (60-61) by a single point. Considering how strong the SEC has been with three teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, there's no question that this team is underrated. The Wildcats proved it with a 78-76 victory over previously unbeaten Wichita State.
Kentucky has the athletes to match up with Louisville. That's why it was able to knock off the Cardinals 73-66 in their first meeting this season on December 28. It held them to just 39.7 percent shooting for the game, including 6-of-26 from 3-point range. The Wildcats only shot 43.5 percent overall and 21.4 percent from distance, so it's not like they played a flawless game, either.
The AAC has proven to be one of the most overrated conferences in the country. Conference champ Cincinnati was ousted in the first round, while Memphis was throttled by 18 points against Virginia last round. UConn is still alive, but barely. The Cardinals simply beat up on a weak conference this season, but they'll meet their match in the long, athletic Wildcats in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky is 61-33 ATS in its last 94 games off a win by 6 points or less. The Wildcats are 14-7 ATS after having won two of their last three games this season. Take Kentucky Friday.
|
03-28-14 |
Tennessee +2.5 v. Michigan |
Top |
71-73 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 48 m |
Show
|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +2.5
The Tennessee Volunteers represent my favorite play for the entire 2014 NCAA Tournament when they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 Friday night. I will be unloading on them, and I recommend you do the same.
No team is playing better than Tennessee right now. It has gone 8-1 in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Florida in the SEC Tournament, which isn't a bad loss considering the Gators have won 28 straight and counting. A whopping seven of the Vols' eight wins during this stretch have come by 13 points or more.
That includes wins over Iowa (78-65), UMass (86-67) and Mercer (83-63) to open the big dance. The SEC has proven to be one of the better conferences in the country with Florida and Kentucky still around, so what the Vols have been doing of late deserves even more credit.
Michigan does not deserve the credit it is getting. The Wolverines lucked into a Big Ten Title because they won every close game they were in. In fact, their four Big Ten losses this season all came by double-digits. When you factor in margin of victory, the Wolverines are clearly nowhere near as good as their record, and they'll get exploited Friday.
Michigan has had a very easy route to get here with wins over Wofford and Texas that have been far from impressive. It only averaged 32 rebounds and seven offensive boards per game, while Tennessee grabs 39 rebounds and 12 offensive boards per game. It's clear to me that the Vols are going to dominate the glass, which will be the key to their victory in this one.
Another advantage working in the Vols' favor is their ability to defend the 3-pointer. Not only do they give up just 33.8% shooting from distance, they only allow 15 attempts per game. Michigan attempts 22 3-pointers per contest, relying heavily on the long ball. I look for the Vols to defend it very well, which will be another key to their win.
Tennessee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Vols are 56-37 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. Bet Tennessee Friday.
|
03-27-14 |
UCLA v. Florida -4.5 |
|
68-79 |
Win
|
101 |
24 h 49 m |
Show
|
15* UCLA/Florida Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida -4.5
Rarely will you ever get the Florida Gators as this small of a favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage and back the hottest team in the country left in the tournament to win by 5-plus points over UCLA in Sweet 16 action Thursday.
The Gators have won a whopping 28 straight games heading into this one to improve to 34-2 on the season. I just really love the veteran presence on this team with so much experience back from last year. Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Michael Frazier II handle the scoring load, while Patric Young, Dorian Finney-Smith and Will Yeguete are the enforcers inside.
This is the most versatile team left in the tournament. Head coach Billy Donovan can mix and match his defenses from man to man, to full court press, to a variety of different zones. That's why the Gators rank 3rd in the country in scoring defense at 57.5 points per game allowed. With Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida still alive, apparently the Gators deserve a lot more credit for their perfect record in the SEC this season.
UCLA has been excellent in head coach Steve Alford's first season on the job, but this team will meet its match Thursday. The Bruins have beaten Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin to get here, which is soft competition to say the least. That doesn't even compare to the Gators' emphatic win over Pittsburgh (61-45) last round. Plus, the Bruins were essentially playing at home for those two games, and now they have to travel to Memphis, TN where there's no question the Gators will have a big following.
Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less in four straight games since 1997. It is winning 73.3 to 57.6 in this spot, or by an average of 15.7 points per game. That's a span of 18 years without a loss. The Gators are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 NCAA Tournament games. The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC foes. Take Florida Thursday.
|
03-27-14 |
Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin |
|
52-69 |
Loss |
-104 |
21 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Baylor/Wisconsin West Region ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3.5
The Baylor Bears get the nod Thursday against the Wisconsin Badgers. Few teams can claim to be playing as well as Baylor coming into this one, and no team has been as dominant as the Bears through the past two rounds of the big dance.
Indeed, Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games overall. Its only losses came at Texas and versus Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, which saw a ton of Cyclone fans in attendance. This team has beaten a whopping eight NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch, including blowout wins over Nebraska (74-60) and Creighton (85-55) by a combined 44 points.
Scott Drew has taken Baylor to two Elite Eights in recent memory. He always has his teams playing their best around tournament time, and 2013-14 has been no exception. What makes this team so difficult to deal with is the zone defense, which boasts 7-1 center Isaiah Austin (11.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 bpg) and 6-9 Forward Cory Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) who both have freakishly long arms to turn away shots at the rim.
Wisconsin has been overrated for most of the season due to winning so many close games. It was fortunate to get by Oregon last round after erasing a double-digit halftime deficit. It won't have the crowd in its favor this time to carry it. The Badgers played the first two rounds in Milwaukee, WI not too far from campus, but now they'll have to travel out to Anaheim, CA and out of their comfort zone.
Baylor is a brilliant 9-2 straight up in neutral court games this season. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Baylor is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games. The Bears are 6-0 ATS in road games off a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Roll with Baylor Thursday.
|
03-27-14 |
Dayton +3.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
82-72 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* Dayton/Stanford Double-Digit Seed DAGGER on Dayton +3.5
The No. 11 Dayton Flyers are showing tremendous value as a 3.5-point underdog to the No. 10 Stanford Cardinal in this one. I'll take advantage and back the Flyers in a game I fully expect them to win outright in this double-digit seed battle.
No team has two better wins to this point than Dayton. It knocked off Big Ten power Ohio State in the first round before upsetting former Big East power and ACC newcomer Syracuse in the second. This team also beat both Gonzaga and Cal in the non-conference, and lost to Baylor by a single point.
The Flyers are a very balanced team with four players who can beat you on a given night. Jordan Sibert (12.4 ppg), Devin Oliver (11.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Dyshawn Pierre (11.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) are studs. The entire starting five can all shoot the 3-pointer as each guy shoots 30.2% or better, four shoot 38.9% or better, and three top 40% from distance, making this a tough matchup for anyone.
I was on Stanford against Kansas, but there's no doubt in my mind that this team is getting too much respect now. The Cardinal only won that game because Joel Embiid was out and because the Jayhawks had an off game. The Flyers will have more fans at this game since it is being played in Tennessee and they are from Ohio, while Stanford has to travel clear across country.
Dayton is 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season, and 40-19 ATS in its last 59 non-conference games overall. The Flyers are 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Flyers are 12-3 ATS after having won two of their last three games this season. Bet Dayton Thursday.
|
03-25-14 |
Belmont +7 v. Clemson |
|
68-73 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Belmont/Clemson NIT Tuesday No-Brainer on Belmont +7
The Belmont Bruins (26-9) have been impressive in their quest to reach Madison Square Garden in the NIT. They went on the road and beat one of the teams that many felt were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament in Wisconsin-Green Bay (80-65) before topping Robert Morris (82-71) at home.
Clemson has had a solid season and has taken care of business in the NIT, beating Georgia State (78-66) before squeaking by Illinois (50-49), both of which came at home. How, the Tigers will face their stiffest test in the Bruins, who I believe can win this thing outright.
These teams both have one common opponent in North Carolina. Belmont went on the road and beat UNC 83-80 as a 14-point underdog on November 17, while Clemson lost at UNC 61-80 as a 7-point dog on January 26. That result alone shows what the Bruins are capable of.
Belmont is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season. Clemson is 5-14 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in home games off two straight games with nine or fewer offensive rebounds. Roll with Belmont Tuesday.
|
03-24-14 |
Arkansas +2.5 v. California |
|
64-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* Arkansas/California NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Arkansas +2.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11) should not be an underdog to the Cal Bears (20-13) tonight in the second round of the NIT. I'll take advantage and take the points in a game I have the Razorbacks winning outright with room to spare.
The SEC has proven to be underrated in the NCAA Tournament, and it has also fared well so far in the NIT. Arkansas got off to a great start to show that it was fully engaged, topping the second-best team from the MVC in Indiana State by a final of 91-71 in the opening round.
California has been faltering down the stretch to miss out on the Big Dance. It has lost four of its last six games overall with one of its wins coming against Utah Valley State and the other against Colorado (66-65) by a single point. Colorado was crushed in the NCAA Tournament by Pitt, and the Bears lost the the Buffaloes in the Pac-12 Tournament as well. The Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Bears are expected to be without arguably their best player in Richard Solomon (11.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a concussion. Without him, this is a very small team, and they will certainly miss his rebounding. Look for the Razorbacks to get plenty of second-chance points, which will be key to their victory.
The Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cal is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas Monday.
|
03-23-14 |
Baylor v. Creighton -3 |
Top |
85-55 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
20* Baylor/Creighton West Region No-Brainer on Creighton -3
This is an excellent matchup for the Creigthon Bluejays (27-7) and a terrible one for the Baylor Bears (25-11). That's why I'm backing the Bluejays as a short favorite in this Round of 32 showdown out of the West Region.
Creighton is the most efficient offensive team in the country. It relies heavily on the 3-pointer, making an incredible 42.1% of its shots from distance. All five starters in Doug McDermott (45.5%), Ethan Wragge (47.4%), Grant Gibbs (45.2%), Jahenns Manigat (41.5%) and Austin Chatman (39.5%) shoot the 3-ball very well.
Baylor is a zone team that does well against teams that rely on their inside game to get most of their points. However, the Bears are extremely vulnerable against teams that can shoot the 3-pointer because the zone philosophy forces opponents to beat you from outside. No team in the entire country is better equipped to beat a zone than Creighton.
The Bluejays are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 opponents. Creighton is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bluejays are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 Sunday games. I've been a Baylor backer for a while now, but now it's time to jump off that wagon and fade because of this terrible matchup for the Bears. Bet Creighton Sunday.
|
03-23-14 |
Kentucky v. Wichita State -5 |
|
78-76 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -5
The Wichita State Shockers (35-0) are showing tremendous value as only a 5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats (25-10) in the Round of 32. Despite being undefeated on the year, the Shockers continue to lack the respect they deserve and should be a bigger favorite in this one.
There are so many doubters out there that believe Wichita State is a fluke. That couldn't be further from the truth because this is basically the same team that made the Final Four last year. Now, the Shockers have come back even stronger in 2014, and it's clear after a 64-37 win over Cal Poly that this team is on a mission.
What has been most impressive about Wichita State's perfect season is the way it has taken care of business with only a handful of close games along the way. In fact, only ONE of its 35 wins this season has come by less than 5 points. That is a remarkable stat, and one that is very important when you consider this 5-point spread.
Kentucky could have suffered a big blow with the injury to starting point guard Andrew Harrison. He seemed to hyperextend his elbow late against Kansas State on Friday. Harrison averaged 10.7 points and 3.8 assists per game and would be missed. However, I am on Wichita State regardless of the injury, but if he doesn't go it would only be an added bonus.
Wichita State is 14-1 ATS when only playing its 2nd game in a week this season. The Shockers are 7-0 ATS when playing their second road game in three days over the last two seasons. Gregg Marshall has done a tremendous job of preparing this team for tournament basketball. I'll back this veteran Shockers squad over the young, inexperienced Wildcats in the Round of 32. Roll with Wichita State Sunday.
|
03-23-14 |
Stanford +6.5 v. Kansas |
|
60-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Stanford/Kansas Early ANNIHILATOR on Stanford +6.5
The Stanford Cardinal (22-12) catch the Kansas Jayhawks (25-9) at less than full strength in the Round of 32. Without Joel Embiid, the Jayhawks are very beatable, and that couldn't have been more evident than in their first-round game against Eastern Kentucky.
Kansas actually trailed late in that game before eventually pulling away 80-69 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. Embbid (11.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg) missed that game, and he's going to miss this game, too.
Stanford is a team that does most of its work inside the 2-point line, which is why the loss of Embiid as Kansas' primary rim protector is huge. Chasson Randle (18.9 ppg), Dwight Powell (13.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Anthony Brown (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Josh Huestis (11.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) form a solid quartet that will give the Jayhawks are run for their money today.
The Cardinal are 10-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Stanford is 14-3 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season. Kansas is 1-10 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons. The Cardinal are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Jayhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Stanford Sunday.
|
03-22-14 |
Connecticut +3.5 v. Villanova |
Top |
77-65 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 14 m |
Show
|
25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +3.5
The UConn Huskies (27-8) would have qualified for the NCAA Tournament last year had they been eligible. Instead, they had a great season and didn't get to play in it. They returned all five starters from that team, so this is a veteran bunch that has only gotten better this season.
Indeed, the Huskies have won 27 games compared to just eight losses. When you consider that three of those losses came to Louisville, this team really did have a fine season. They made it to the AAC Championship Game and lost to the Cardinals before knocking off St. Joe's in the Round of 64.
Shabazz Napier (17.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.0 apg) will be the best player on the floor Saturday, and he's capable of carrying this team to a victory like he did Thursday with 24 points, eight boards and six assists in the win over St. Joe's. DeAndre Daniels (12.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Ryan Boatright (12.0 ppg, 3.5 apg) are no slouches themselves.
UConn played a much tougher schedule than Villanova did this season. It has gone 8-5 against NCAA Tournament teams with those three losses to Louisville, as well as Stanford and Cincinnati by a combined seven points. It has wins over Florida, Harvard, Memphis (three times) and Cincinnati (twice).
The Huskies are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games. Connecticut is now 10-3 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a neutral court underdog or less. Villanova is 12-33 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
I strongly believe that the Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to playing a soft schedule in the weak Big East Conference. I also like the rugged defense of UConn, which gives up just 63.6 ppg and 39.0% shooting. Their perimeter defense is incredible, and it will wreak havoc on a Villanova team that relies on finesse and 3-point shooting. Rugged beats finesse tonight. That shows today as the Wildcats get upset by the Huskies, though we'll take the points for some insurance. Bet UConn Saturday.
|
03-22-14 |
Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
77-85 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
20* Oregon/Wisconsin West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5
I was all over the Oregon Ducks (24-9) as my 25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR in an 87-68 victory over BYU. I will continue to back them for a lot of the same reasons as they give Wisconsin a run for their money in the Round of 32, likely winning this game outright.
Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the country. People forget that it opened 13-0 this season because it would go on to lose eight of its next 10 games. However, seven of those losses came by single-digits, including a whopping five by 4 points or fewer. The Ducks have only lost four times all season by more than 4 points.
The Ducks have clearly regrouped and are one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes wins over UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona and BYU, which are four fellow NCAA Tournament participants. This red-hot team is going to be tough for the Badgers to deal with Saturday.
Oregon puts up 82.0 points per game on 46.9% shooting, including 38.7% from 3-point range this season. Joseph Young (18.6 ppg), Mike Moser (13.3 ppg) and Jason Calliste (12.4 ppg) can all fill it up. Plus, they all shoot the 3-ball well, which is what makes them so difficult to deal with. Calliste makes 50% from distance, while Young (40.9%) and Moser (37.8%) are solid shooters as well. Fellow starters Damyean Dotson (30.5%) & Johnathan Loyd (36.0%) can hit the 3, too.
Unlike Oregon, Wisconsin has been extremely fortunate in close games. That's why I believe it is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament and should not have received a No. 2 seed. A whopping 12 of its wins came by single-digits this season. Head coach Bo Ryan's style just does not mesh well in the Big Dance, which is why the Badgers have failed to make a deep run as far back as I can remember. The Badgers won't be able to handle the athleticism of this Ducks squad.
The Ducks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons. Wisconsin is 8-20 ATS when playing a good team (win percentage from 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons. Oregon is 7-0 ATS in postseason tournament games over the last three seasons. The Ducks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take Oregon Saturday.
|
03-22-14 |
Texas +5 v. Michigan |
|
65-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* Texas/Michigan Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Texas +5
This play is just as much a fade of Michigan (26-8) as it is a play on Texas (24-10). I strongly believe that all of the No. 2 seeds are overrated outside of perhaps Kansas, and Michigan may be the most overrated of them all.
Sure, the Wolverines won the Big Ten, which is no small feat, but they did so by getting extremely lucky in close games. A whopping 13 of their 17 Big Ten wins came by 10 points or less. Seven of those came by 5 points or fewer. This game easily could be decided by 5 points or less with the way that Michigan hasn't been able to blow teams out.
Even more telling are Michigan's only four Big Ten losses this season. All four came by double-digits against Indiana (52-63), Iowa (67-85), Wisconsin (62-75) and Michigan State (55-69). Clearly, this team is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate because it simply was very fortunate in close games all year. But winning the Big Ten got them a No. 2 seed, and now there is value in playing against them.
Texas has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. It got not love coming into the year due to missing the Big Dance last season, and it continues to get no love today as an underdog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright, though I'll take the points for some insurance.
The Longhorns played a gauntlet of a schedule in the Big 12 this season, which will have them prepared for this contest. It managed to win a whopping nine games against NCAA Tournament teams this year. I love its size inside, which is why it ranks 4th in the country in rebounding at 41.8 boards per game. Michigan relies too much on its perimeter and will get dominated on the glass. Michigan ranks 303rd in the country in rebounding at 31.9 boards per game. I'll take the better rebounding team more times than not because second-chance opportunities lead to easy points.
Michigan is 1-7 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. It is only winning 74.3 to 73.6 in this spot, or by an average of 0.7 points per game. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|
03-21-14 |
Kansas State v. Kentucky -5 |
|
49-56 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* K-State/Kentucky Friday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky -5
The Kentucky Wildcats were one of the youngest teams in the country coming into the season. It was obvious that they came into the year overrated, and they struggled in the early going. However, like almost every John Calipari team, they got better as the season progressed.
Indeed, the Wildcats are peaking heading into the NCAA Tournament. They beat LSU (85-67) and Georgia (70-58) handily in the SEC Tournament before falling by a single point to Florida (60-61) in the SEC Title Game. That's the same Gators team that has now won 26 straight games, so the Wildcats believe they can play with anyone.
The other Wildcats from Kansas State also had a very solid year. However, I believe this is the worst team to represent the Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament, and the most likely to get knocked off in the first round. Kansas State went 15-2 at home this season compared to just 5-10 on the road. It simply is not the same team when it steps away from Manhattan.
Kentucky is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games off five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. Kentucky is one of the most athletic teams in the country, while Kansas State is one of the least athletic teams in the Big 12. I believe that athleticism, coupled with the growth of this team throughout the season, leads to a blowout victory for the favorite. Bet Kentucky Friday.
|
03-21-14 |
NC Central v. Iowa State -8.5 |
Top |
75-93 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 48 m |
Show
|
20* NC Central/Iowa State Friday Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones (26-7) have been underrated all season. They have made me a lot of money going on an against this year, but mostly on. I rode them all the way through a Big 12 Tournament Championship, and I still feel they are being undervalued heading into the Big Dance.
The way to know that is the case is just to compare the rest of the spreads for the top three seeds. Iowa State is the smallest favorite (8.5) of all the top three seeds in the tournament. Sure, NC Central is a quality team in a small conference, but it will get blown out by double-digits in this one.
In fact, NC Central has played just three NCAA Tournament teams this season. It went 1-2 in those games while losing by double-digits to both Cincinnati and Wichita State. I look for it to suffer a similar fate tonight as it is way overvalued due to its 20-game winning streak coming in that has come against soft competition.
Iowa State saved its best basketball for last. After a win over Oklahoma State in the regular season finale, it would win three straight games over Kansas State (91-85), Kansas (94-83) and Baylor (74-65) to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. All four of those teams are in the big dance.
This team is certainly battle-tested as it went 12-6 against teams that are currently in the NCAA Tournament. What makes the Cyclones so difficult to deal with is that they start five players who can all shoot the 3-pointer. Big 12 Player of the Year Melvin Ejim (18.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg), first-team All-Big 12 DeAndre Kane (17.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.8 apg), and third-team All-Big 12 Georges Niang (16.5 ppg) lead the way.
The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Iowa State is a perfect 7-0 in neutral site games this season, going 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games in the process. Iowa State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. NC Central is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|
03-21-14 |
Stephen Austin v. VCU -6 |
|
77-75 |
Loss |
-106 |
51 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -6
This is a very good price to get the VCU Rams at Friday as they take on the Stephen F. Austin Austin Lumberjacks. The Lumberjacks are getting a lot of love from the books and the betting public because of their 31-2 record and 18-0 mark in the Southland. I'm not buying it.
The Lumberjacks have only played one team that is in the NCAA Tournament. That was a 72-62 loss to Texas. This team plays at a fast pace and tries to force a bunch of turnovers, but it will be running into a team in VCU that wreaks havoc more than anyone in the country.
The Rams force the most turnovers in the country at roughly 18 per game. They are absolutely relentless, and I don't believe Stephen F. Austin is ready to deal with that kind of pressure for 40 minutes. This style of play is the reason that the Rams made the Final Four just a couple years ago because it's perfect for tournament basketball.
VCU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Rams are 10-1 ATS in road games in their last 11 first round tournament games. Roll with VCU Friday.
|
03-21-14 |
Oklahoma State -2 v. Gonzaga |
|
77-85 |
Loss |
-106 |
48 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Higher Seed Upset Special on Oklahoma State -2
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are the most dangerous 9-16 seed in the entire tournament. They were one of the highest-ranked teams in the country coming into the season, and underachieved during the early part of the Big 12 schedule.
However, the Cowboys have really turned it on of late to show what most of us thought they were capable of at the beginning of the year. It has won five of its last seven games overall with its only losses coming on the road to Kansas and Iowa State. Both losses came in overtime, and those are the two best teams in the conference in my opinion.
Incredibly, the Cowboys have gone 0-4 in overtime games this season, and they've lost six other games by 6 points or less. So, only two of their 12 losses either came by more than six points and without overtime. That alone shows that this team was much better than its record would indicate.
Gonzaga had a good season in the West Coast Conference, but this conference was down this season as Saint Mary's wasn't its normal self. The Zags went just 3-4 against NCAA Tournament teams this season with two of those victories coming against BYU, who doesn't deserve to be in this field. It lost to Dayton (79-84), Kansas State (62-72) and Memphis (54-60) while beating lowly New Mexico State (80-68) in its four non-conference games against Tournament teams.
The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in road games off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three years as well. These two trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State Friday.
|
03-21-14 |
Nebraska v. Baylor -3 |
Top |
60-74 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Baylor/Nebraska CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3
The Baylor Bears (24-11) are one of the hottest teams in the country entering the big dance. It looked as if their season was lost after losing eight of their first 10 Big 12 games. However, this team has responded in a big way by going 10-2 in its last 12 games overall.
That included a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game, where it would lose to Iowa State. Few teams have played a schedule as tough as Baylor. It has faced a whopping 20 games against current NCAA Tournament teams. Sure, 15 of those were in the Big 12, but the non-conference schedule was brutal, too. They went 4-1 against tournament teams in non-conference with their only loss coming to Syracuse.
Nebraska (19-12) is a great story this season. It was nice to see it make its first NCAA Tournament in ages, but the feel-good story ends against Baylor. The zone defense that the Bears like to run will give the Huskers fits. You have to be able to hit the 3-pointer to beat the zone, and the Huskers are not equipped to do so. They only shoot 33.9 percent from 3-point range as a team.
The length of the Baylor zone is very difficult to deal with because of the two big men inside in Cory Jefferson (13.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and Isaiah Austin (11.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 bpg), who are both future pros. That zone is the biggest reason why the Bears have won 10 of their last 12 because opponents just simply haven't been able to adjust to it. Plus, you can't practice against it because no team has players like Jefferson and Austin on their practice squad.
Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on Baylor is because it is going to have a massive home-court advantage in this one. The AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX is only 180 miles away from Baylor's campus. Meanwhile, Nebraska fans are going to have to travel 860 miles to watch their team play. You can bet the crowd noise is going to be heavily in the Bears' favor in this one. Bet Baylor Friday.
|
03-20-14 |
BYU v. Oregon -3 |
Top |
68-87 |
Win
|
100 |
90 h 52 m |
Show
|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon -3
The Oregon Ducks (23-9) represent my strongest play for all of the Round of 64 games. I look for them to put a beat down on the BYU Cougars (23-11) and likely roll by double-digits in this one.
Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the country. It opened 13-0 before losing eight of its next 10 games. However, seven of those losses came by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer, and four by exactly 2 points.
The Ducks would regroup and win eight of their final nine games heading into the tournament. That includes wins over UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona, which are three fellow NCAA Tournament participants. This red-hot team is going to be tough to deal with.
Oregon ranks 11th in the country in scoring offense at 81.8 points per game. Joseph Young (18.6 ppg), Mike Moser (13.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jason Calliste (12.4 ppg) can all fill it up. They all shoot the 3-ball well, too. Calliste shoots 50.8%, Young 41.6% and Moser 37.9%. They make 39.2% from distance as a team, which is incredible.
I don't even believe that BYU deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament. It did almost all of its damage at home while going just 9-10 on the road this season. Now, it lost second-leading scorer, top rebounder and top assist man Kyle Collinsworth (14.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.6 apg) to a season-ending knee injury in the WCC Championship Game loss to Gonzaga. He was the heart and soul for this team as he did a little bit of everything for the Cougars.
BYU is 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick over the last three seasons. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in all post-season tournament games over the last three seasons. The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in road games in all tournament games over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Ducks. Bet Oregon Thursday.
Note: I locked this line in as soon as it came out anticipating that it would move in a hurry. I wanted my long-term clients to be able to get in on it as soon as they could. As expected, it has jumped to -6 in most places as of this writing (11:30 Sunday Night). According to my numbers, this line should be set at -8 or higher. So, I still recommend a bet on Oregon at the current -5.5/-6 spread. I'll update this note if it moves to closer to -8. Thanks.
|
03-20-14 |
Western Michigan v. Syracuse -13 |
|
53-77 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -13
The Syracuse Orange are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they hit the court Thursday. Sure, every team is going to be motivated, but this team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder with the way it finished the season. As such, I look for them to make a statement with a blowout victory over Western Michigan.
Syracuse (27-5) opened the season 25-0 before faltering down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games overall. After winning all its close games for most of the season, it has been on the wrong side of close games of late. Four of its five losses have come by 6 points or less. This team is still one of the best in the country, and it is now undervalued due to this recent poor stretch, which has been mostly due to bad luck.
You can bet that Jim Boeheim has this bunch grounded and making sure that they know they aren't as good as they thought they were, and that they cannot just show up to win games. C.J. Fair (16.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Tyler Ennis (12.7 ppg, 5.6 apg), Trevor Cooney (12.2 ppg) and Jerami Grant (12.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) do most of the heavy lifting for this team.
Sure, Western Michigan is red hot, but it has been beating up on the weak MAC. A look at a few of its losses this season show that it is certainly prone to the blowout. The Broncos have double-digit losses to Hawaii (68-78), Northwestern (35-51), Eastern Michigan (37-56), Buffalo (63-84) and Toledo (85-96) this season. As you can see, three of its losses came by 16-plus points, and you can chalk up another one Thursday.
One huge factor here that cannot be overlooked is that this will essentially be a home game for Syracuse. Its campus is located just 150 miles from the First Niagara Center in Buffalo, NY. Western Michigan isn't too far at 448 miles away, either, but you can bet that the seats are going to be filled with mostly orange.
Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game this season. A big reason for that is that the Orange don't foul in their patented zone defense. The key to beating the zone is shooting the 3-pointer, and the Broncos only shoot it at 33.2 percent as a team. Massive advantage Orange. Take Syracuse Thursday.
|
03-20-14 |
Dayton +6 v. Ohio State |
|
60-59 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* Dayton/Ohio State CBB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton +6
The Dayton Flyers are chomping at the bit to take on in-state foe Ohio State. Thad Matta simply will not schedule the Flyers, but he doesn't have a choice now. I believe that Dayton is the best team in the state of Ohio this season, and that will show on the court Thursday.
Dayton really impressed me in the non-conference schedule this season. It beat then-No. 11 Gonzaga (84-79) and fell to then-No. 18 Baylor (66-67) by a single point on a neutral court. The Flyers would beat Cal (82-64) on a neutral court and Georgia Tech (82-72) on the road.
However, the Flyers have saved their best basketball for last. They have won 10 of their last 12 games overall with both of their losses coming to Atlantic 10 Tournament champ St. Joe's. That includes wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders George Washington (75-65), UMass (86-79) and Saint Louis (72-67) during this stretch.
The Flyers are one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country as they shoot 46.6 percent from the floor and score 73.4 points per game. They have four players averaging at least 9.9 points per game in Jordan Sibert (12.2 ppg), Devin Oliver (12.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Dyshawn Pierre (11.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Vee Sanford (9.9 ppg).
While Dayton has had no problem scoring this season, Ohio State has gone on long scoring droughts in games, which will be its downfall Thursday. The Buckeyes rank 208th in scoring offense at 69.8 points per game and 227th in assists at 12.0 points per game. While Aaron Craft is a hell of a defender, he provides little on the offensive end and is asked to do more than he is capable of.
Because of their lack of scoring, the Buckeyes have had a hard time putting teams away. That has really been the case of late as each of its last six games were decided by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer. That's why there is a very good chance that we get the money even if the Flyers don't win outright, and thus there is a ton of value here at this +6 number.
Dayton is 6-0 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. The Flyers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Ohio State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Thursday games. The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. These five trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the Flyers. Roll with Dayton Thursday.
|
03-19-14 |
Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5 |
Top |
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
20* Iowa/Tennessee First Four No-Brainer on Tennessee +2.5
The Tennessee Volunteers (21-12, 11-7 SEC) were one of the last teams to get into the field of 68. I was excited to see them get in because I know that they are capable of making a run with what they have to offer. I look for them to win this First Four game over Iowa with relative ease.
Tennessee had some very impressive wins this season. In fact, its 87-52 victory over No. 1 seed Virginia may have been the most impressive win of any team all year. What I love about this team is that it plays defense. The Vols rank 16th in the country in points allowed (61.1) per game and 20th in rebounds (38.8) per game.
Iowa, on the other hand, plays little to no defense. It ranks 180th in points allowed per game at 70.1. Poor defense is the reason the Hawks have lost six of their last seven games coming into the Tournament, and they were really fortunate to get in because of it. They gave up 76-plus points in five of their final seven games, which included losses to Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota, who aren't tournament teams.
While the Hawkeyes are ice cold coming in, the Vols have been playing some of the best basketball in the country. They have won five of their last six with their only loss coming 49-56 against Florida in the SEC Tournament, a game in which Tennessee led most of the way. Its last four wins have come via blowout over Vanderbilt (76-38), Auburn (82-54), Missouri (72-45) and South Carolina (59-44).
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding their opponents by 7-plus boards per game. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite. The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Wednesday.
|
03-18-14 |
Indiana State +9.5 v. Arkansas |
Top |
71-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
25* NIT Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State +9.5
The Indiana State Sycamores (23-10) are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Arkansas Razorbacks (21-11) tonight in the Opening Round of the NIT. Asking the Razorbacks to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.
Indiana State was the second-best team in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, trailing only Wichita State, which has yet to lose at 34-0. The Sycamores would make it to the MWC Title Game before falling 69-83 to the Shockers.
The Sycamores are a balanced team that is capable of competing with anyone in the country. They have five players averaging at least 9.8 points per game this season, led by Jake Odom (13.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.5 apg), who does a little bit of everything for this team.
Arkansas is going to come into this game lacking motivation after falling short of the NCAA Tournament when it looked like it would be in for sure a couple weeks ago. However, an ugly loss at Alabama (58-83) and an even worse loss to South Carolina (69-71) in the SEC Tournament in the final two games of the season did them in.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 82-39 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Indiana State Tuesday.
|
03-16-14 |
Michigan State -3 v. Michigan |
Top |
69-55 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3
The Michigan State Spartans are going to be out for revenge Saturday when they take on the Michigan Wolverines. They lost both regular season meeting, though the home loss comes with an asterisk because they were playing without their top two post players in Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson.
In fact, Payne (15.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg) have missed significant time due to injury this year, while Keith Appling (12.5 ppg, 4.7 apg) has been bothered by nagging injuries as well. That's why it is amazing that the Spartans have still managed to go 25-8 this season while playing a brutal schedule.
Now healthy, this team has really taken off. The Spartans have one three of their past four with their only loss coming by a mere two points at Ohio State. They beat Iowa (86-76) at home before topping Northwestern (67-51) and Wisconsin (83-75) in the Big Ten Tournament. That game against the Badgers was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Michigan is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion. It has won so many close games this year to really inflate its record. That includes two wins by a combined 4 points in the Big Ten Tournament over Illinois (64-63) and Ohio State (72-69). The Wolverines' luck runs out Sunday in the championship game against a Spartans team that simply wants it more after losing the first two meetings.
Michigan State is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (winning percentage from 60% to 80%) this season. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons. Bet Michigan State Sunday.
|
03-16-14 |
Duke v. Virginia +1.5 |
|
63-72 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* Duke/Virginia ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +1.5
The Virginia Cavaliers will be out for revenge from a narrow 65-69 loss at Duke on January 13 in their lone meeting this season. Nobody has been able to win at Cameron Indoor, and the Cavaliers actually held a lead in the final minute of that game. On a neutral court this time around, I look for them to have their payback.
Virginia has really taken off since that loss to Duke, going 15-1 in its last 16 games overall with its only loss coming in overtime at Maryland in the season finale. That was after they had already wrapped up the ACC regular season title, so it was a clear letdown spot. This team will be motivated to cap off the double-whammy in winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles.
While Virginia beat two very good teams in FSU and Pitt coming in, Duke struggled to beat two teams that didn't even sniff the NCAA Tournament in Clemson (63-62) and NC State (75-67). This Blue Devils team has been vulnerable all season because they do not play much defense at all. They'll be up against arguably the best defensive team in the country in Virginia, which gives up just 55.1 points per game on 38.5 percent shooting. Duke allows 66.9 points on 45.4 percent shooting to compare.
Virginia is 8-0 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS versus good teams that outscored their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season. Virginia is 5-0 straight up on a neutral court this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Sunday.
|
03-15-14 |
Baylor v. Iowa State -1 |
Top |
65-74 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State -1
The Iowa State Cyclones are on a mission in this Big 12 Tournament. They have brought down more fans from Ames for the Big 12 Tournament than any other year in the history of their program. The Cyclones actually seemed to have home-court advantage over the Kansas Jayhawks last night in Kansas City.
While any regular season win over Kansas would bring a letdown into play the next game, I don't believe the letdown factor will be an issue here since this is the Big 12 Title game. I have no doubt that the Cyclones are the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Saturday night.
The home team won both meetings during the regular season, and I look for that home-court advantage that the Cyclones have brought down to Kansas City with them known as "Hilton South" will help guide them to a victory in this one. Plus, they have saved their best basketball for last with three straight wins over Okie State, K-State and Kansas.
I do commend Baylor for its ability to rebound following a 2-8 start in the Big 12. It was left for dead by the media, yet it is now an NCAA Tournament team due to winning six straight coming into this one. However, this is also a very tired Bears team as this will be their 4th game in 4 days. This will only be Iowa State's 3rd game in 3 days, and I believe that extra day of rest will really come into play here since the Cyclones had a bye into the quarterfinals.
Iowa State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS revenging a double-digit road loss vs. opponent over the past three seasons. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
03-15-14 |
Michigan State v. Wisconsin |
Top |
83-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State PK
The Michigan State Spartans represent my strongest play for the entire 2014 Big Ten Tournament as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals. They will want revenge from a 58-60 road loss to Wisconsin in their lone meeting of the season on February 9.
That was a rare win for the Badgers in this series. The Spartans are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings, and I look for the dominance to continue today. This line makes zero sense considering the Spartans were without two of their best players in Keith Appling and Branden Dawson in that regular season meeting this year, yet they still only lost by two points on the road.
Appling (12.6 ppg, 4.7 apg), Dawson (10.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Adreian Payne (15.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg) have all missed significant time this season due to injury. That's why it is amazing that the Spartans have managed to go 24-8 as these are three starters and three of their best players. Now at full strength, Michigan State is going to be a dangerous team going forward. Wisconsin stands no chance in the rematch.
The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Wisconsin. Take this perfect 12-0 system backing Sparty straight to the bank. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|
03-15-14 |
George Washington v. VCU -4.5 |
|
55-74 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU -4.5
The VCU Rams will make easy work of the George Washington Colonials Saturday. The two regular season meetings between these teams tell all that there is to know about why this is going to be a blowout in VCU's favor.
George Washington does not have the guards to deal with VCU's pressure. It turned the ball over 21 and 22 times in the two regular season meetings with the Rams. Now, with no time to prepare for that pressure in practice, the Colonials will be in a world of hurt in this one. I look for the Rams to turn them over time and time again, which will lead to easy bucket after easy bucket.
VCU has really kicked it into another gear the closer we got to tournament time. It has gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall, winning by 19, 11, 6, 19 and 18 points, respectively. While I respect what George Washington did this season in making the big dance, the fact of the matter is that it isn't even in the same class as VCU, and that will show on the court today. Roll with VCU Saturday.
|
03-15-14 |
Pittsburgh v. Virginia -3 |
|
48-51 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
15* Pitt/Virginia ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -3
The Virginia Cavaliers (26-6) have been tremendous this season. They are pushing for a top-2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they are doings so behind a 17-2 record in ACC play. This team has been better than it has gotten credit for all season, and that is the case again this afternoon as a mere 3-point favorite.
The Cavaliers have a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into this showdown with Pittsburgh. While Virginia has only had to play one game after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, Pitt has had to play two games. That makes this the 3rd game in three days for the Panthers.
Another reason that the Cavaliers will be more prepared in this one is that they got to play the early game yesterday. They played right before Pitt and dominated Florida State. That allowed their players and coaches to watch the Pitt/UNC game after, which will give them a leg up on the Panthers as they'll know what to expect.
Virginia is 7-0 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this year. Virginia is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Cavaliers. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|
03-14-14 |
Seton Hall v. Providence -2.5 |
|
74-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -2.5
The Providence Friars came up big in a must-win situation yesterday in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They beat St. John's, and now they move on to face Seton Hall. They are currently the last team listed on Joe Lunardi's 'Last Four In' line, so they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to make the big dance, either.
One big advantage that the Friars have over the Pirates is that they'll be well-rested in comparison. Indeed, this will be the third game in three days for Seton Hall, while this will be just the second game in two days for Providence. The Pirates had to play the first round on Wednesday, while the Friars had a buy into the second round.
Seton Hall is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here, but it shouldn't be. It has won back-to-back 1-point games over Butler and Villanova. It is getting the respect due to that Villanova win, but as I've said all season, the Wildcats are not nearly as good as their record would indicate. They are extremely vulnerable as we look ahead to the NCAA Tournament as well.
I really like the veteran leadership on this Providence team, which has helped guide it to four wins in its last five games overall to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament. The lone loss came at Creighton on Senior Night for the Bluejays. Senior guard Bryce Cotton (21.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) is one of the best players in the country that nobody knows about. LaDontae Henton (13.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Kadeem Batts (12.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Tyler Harris (11.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) compliment Cotton well. Take Providence Friday.
|
03-14-14 |
Houston +19 v. Louisville |
|
65-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +19
The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public heading into this showdown with Houston. Their 92-31 beat down of Rutgers was impressive, but it has also created expectations for the Cardinals in terms of the point spread that they cannot live up to.
While the Cardinals are getting a lot of love for that win, the Cougars aren't getting enough for their 68-64 triumph over SMU as an 8.5-point underdog. I was on them as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR and stated that they are the biggest sleeper in this conference tournament. They are fully capable of giving Louisville a run for its money, too.
Houston has won five of its last six games overall, and it is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games. It boasts two of the best players in the conference tournament in TaShawn Thomas (15.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg) and Danuel House (13.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg). Jherrod Stiggers (11.2 ppg) and L.J. Rose (9.0 ppg, 5.5 apg) are excellent as well. Each came up huge against SMU as Stiggers led the team with 19 points, while Rose was second with 16 points, 6 boards and 4 assists.
Sure, it's concerning that the Cougars were blown out 52-91 at Louisville in their first meeting of the season. However, they played the Cardinals much tougher in their second meeting, falling 62-77 as a 15-point home underdog. Playing them for a third time, they now know what to expect from their pressure defense. I believe this trend will continue and that the third and final meeting will be decided by less than 15 points, let alone 19.
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LOUISVILLE) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, in any tournament semi-final game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Roll with Houston Friday.
|
03-14-14 |
Iowa State +4 v. Kansas |
Top |
94-83 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 0 m |
Show
|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +4
The Iowa State Cyclones want serious payback from losing the first two meetings with Kansas this season. This team is well aware of its struggles with Kansas over the past couple seasons, losing each of the last five meetings, including all three last year.
However, a closer look shows that they were competitive in every game but one. They lost two meetings with Kansas last year in overtime. This year, they fell by seven points at home (70-77) and 11 points on the road (81-92). That trip to Lawrence was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Jayhawks pulled away late.
What has given the Cyclones trouble against Kansas is the size and strength of their interior big men, namely Joel Embiid. Embiid had 16 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in their first meeting this season. He came back with 14 points and 11 boards in the second. In the two meetings combined, the 7-footer posted 30 points, 20 boards and six blocks while shooting 70.6 percent from the field.
Now, Embiid is out for the conference tournament as he deals with a back injury. The Cyclones match up with the Jayhawks much better without Embiid on the floor, so much so that I believe they are the better team now and will win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance.
Another factor that cannot be overlooked here is that Kansas played an overtime game yesterday against Oklahoma State. That will take more out of them, especially now that they are short-handed without Embiid. The Jayhawks also played a couple hours after the Cyclones did yesterday, which is another slight advantage for ISU as it got a chance to watch Kansas after it beat Kansas State in the early game.
The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Kansas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The Cyclones are 71-46 ATS versus teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games since 1997. Bet Iowa State Friday.
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03-13-14 |
Utah +7.5 v. Arizona |
|
39-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* Pac-12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +7.5
This Utah team really deserves a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but for now, they are on the outside looking in. They
|
03-13-14 |
Purdue +9 v. Ohio State |
|
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +9
The Purdue Boilermakers were one of the most improved teams in the country this season with four starters back from last year. While it didn't always show up in the win/loss column, I saw enough from this team in the second half of the season to know that they are capable of beating anyone in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Boilermakers simply had bad fortune in close games this season. They lost road games at Wisconsin (76-70) by six and at Iowa (76-83) by seven, while also falling at home to Michigan (76-77) in overtime in three of their final four games of the regular season. Those three games right there all show what this team is capable of because it had a chance to win every one.
Purdue is going to be out for revenge on Ohio State after dropping both regular season meetings. It lost 69-78 at home and 49-67 on the road. Sure, that is concerning, but to beat a pesky team like Purdue by 9-plus points three times in one season is asking a lot. Plus, the Boilermakers will have a bit of a home-court advantage as this game will be played in Indianapolis.
Plays against neutral court teams (OHIO ST) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 51-15 (77.3%) ATS since 1997. The Boilermakers are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games following an ATS loss. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Take Purdue Thursday.
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03-13-14 |
Houston +8.5 v. SMU |
Top |
68-64 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
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25* AAC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +8.5
The Houston Cougars represent my strongest play for the entire 2014 AAC Tournament Thursday when they take on the SMU Mustangs. While they aren't one of the five ranked teams in the AAC, they are certainly the sleeper in this conference tournament.
Houston closed the season very strong by winning four of its final five games, which included a 77-68 victory over Memphis. This team also went on a 6-1-1 ATS run to close out the year, time and time again being undervalued. The Cougars have two of the best players in the tournament in TaShawn Thomas (15.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.7 bpg) and Danuel House (13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg).
SMU showed that perhaps it was a fraud all this time at the end of the season. It lost at home to Louisville 71-84 before going on the road and falling to Memphis by a final of 58-67. This team has no business being this heavily favored on a neutral floor against a quality Houston team.
That's especially the case when you consider how closely-contested the regular season series won. SMU won both meetings, but by just 7 points on the road (75-68) and 4 points at home (68-64). You can bet that the Cougars are going to want revenge in the third and final meeting, which is the most important one with their season at stake.
The Cougars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Mustangs are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with SMU. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread this season. Bet Houston Thursday.
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03-12-14 |
Fordham v. George Mason -5 |
Top |
70-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on George Mason -5
The George Mason Patriots are the best team in the country that currently has 11 wins or less on the season. This is a team that returned all five starters from last year, but the luck just hasn't fallen their way in close games. As a result, their record is 11-19 when it could easily be 19-11.
Indeed, a whopping 12 of their 19 losses came by 8 points or fewer, and 11 of those came by 6 points or less. As you can see, this team has simply fallen short in the close games. I like the fight I'll saw from them to close out hte season as they went 5-2 ATS over their last seven games, which included outright road wins at UMass (91-80) as an 11-point dog, and at La Salle (59-57) as a 6-point dog.
Fordham (9-20, 2-14) did pick up one of its two conference wins this season at home against George Mason, but that simply places the Patriots in revenge mode. Unlike the Patriots, the Rams are every bit as bad as their record would indicate. They lost eight straight games to close out the season, including six of those by double-digits. They don't even want to be still playing as they packed it in a long time ago.
The Patriots boast two of the best players in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Sherrod Wright (15.8 ppg) and Bryon Allen (15.2 ppg) can both fill it up when they need to. These two are fully capable of carrying this team deep into the tournament as a sleeper.
Fordham is 0-7 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers this season. George Mason is 6-0 ATS off a home loss against a conference opponent this season. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Patriots. Bet George Mason Wednesday.
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03-12-14 |
Virginia Tech v. Miami (Fla) -6 |
|
53-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* ACC Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami -6
We are getting the Miami Hurricanes (16-15, 7-11) at a bargain price in their 2014 ACC Tournament opener. They get to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-21, 2-16), and I look for this one to result in a blowout victory in their favor.
Sure, they did hand the Hokies both of their conference victories this season with a 1-point home loss and a 7-point road loss. However, the fact that they lost both meetings has kept this line lower than it should be, and there's no question the 'Canes are going to want revenge while keeping their season alive in the rematch.
Miami has shown me enough to know that it is a sleeper in this ACC Tournament. It won four of its final six games to close out the season, so it is playing well coming in. It has gone on the road and knocked off the likes of UNC (63-57), Georgia Tech (56-42), Florida State (77-73) and NC State (85-70) in ACC play this season, playing its best basketball away from home.
Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games after having lost 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past two seasons. Miami is 11-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Miami Wednesday.
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03-12-14 |
Washington v. Utah -5.5 |
|
61-67 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -5.5
This Utah team really deserves a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but for now, they are on the outside looking in. They
|
03-11-14 |
BYU v. Gonzaga -4 |
|
64-75 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* BYU/Gonzaga WCC Championship No-Brainer on Gonzaga -4
I look for the Gonzaga Bulldogs to take down the WCC Conference Tournament Championship tonight with a lopsided victory over the BYU Cougars. The Bulldogs have won six of the past eight WCC titles and they'll add another one to their r
|
03-10-14 |
Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois -3 |
|
51-54 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -3
The Northern Illinois Huskies (14-16) get the call as a small home favorite over the Bowling Green Falcons (12-19) in the first round of the MAC Tournament. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage.
Northern Illinois has been undervalued for quite some time now, and that has continued here tonight. Indeed, the Huskies are 10-0-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes outright wins over Kent State as an 11-point dog, Miami Ohio as a 3-point dog, Eastern Michigan as a 4-point dog, Toledo as a 5.5-point dog and Ball State as a 2.5-point dog.
Bowling Green is not playing well coming into the MAC Tournament. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with blowout losses to Akron (47-57), Ohio (61-72) and Buffalo (65-88). It has lost eight of its last 10 overall and I don't foresee it magically turning things around tonight. The Huskies already beat the Falcons 45-36 on the road as an 8.5-point dog back on January 12 in their first meeting of the season.
The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bowling Green is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Northern Illinois is 10-0-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the home team. Roll with Northern Illinois Monday.
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