15* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on LSU -2.5

The LSU Tigers are out for revenge on the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday. They lost the first meeting of the season 57-60 at Alabama on February 9th just two weeks ago as an 8.5-point underdog. I like the Tigers' chances of returning the favor at home in the rematch.

LSU is a very solid 12-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.9 points/game. It is scoring 73.3 points/game at home this year. Alabama is just 4-5 in true road games this season where it is scoring a mere 57.7 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Alabama and LSU. The home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings dating back to 2008. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. In fact, LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Meanwhile, Alabama is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Putting the icing on the cake is the fact that the Tigers are 8-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Roll with LSU Saturday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons should not be catching 7.5 points at home today to the Miami Hurricanes. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home squad in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.

At 22-3 and as the No. 2 team in the country, the Hurricanes come into this contest way overvalued. They are also a perfect 13-0 in ACC play which has the betting public continuing to back them. Miami has started to show signs of coming back down to reality as each of its last three victories have come by 6 points or less over FSU (74-68), Clemson (45-43) and Virginia (54-50).

Wake Forest is just 11-15 on the season, but this is certainly a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has played very well at home this year where it is 9-4 SU & 7-3 ATS on the season. It has home wins over the likes of Xavier (66-59), Virginia (55-52), NC State (86-84) and Florida State (71-46). It also has a narrow home loss to Duke (70-75) as a 13.5-point underdog.

One of the biggest reasons I am on Wake Forest Saturday is the fact that it has had a week to prepare for Miami since last playing on February 16th in a 56-57 loss to Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Miami as it played Clemson on 17th and Virginia on the 19th. The Demon Deacons will have a huge edge in rest and preparation.

The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Wake Forest is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a ATS loss. The Demon Deacons are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -1.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Saint Louis Billikens. The 15th-ranked Bulldogs can clear a big hurdle by assuming sole possession of first place with a win over surging conference leader Saint Louis on Friday night.

Butler (22-5, 9-3) has endured injuries to its three leading scorers in its first A-10 season but trails the Billikens (20-5, 9-2) by only one-half game. Now healthy, and out for revenge from an ugly 58-75 loss at Saint Louis on January 31st in their first meeting of the season, I look for the Bulldogs to roll at home tonight.

The Bulldogs are a sensational 13-1 at Hinkle Fieldhouse this season, which includes wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Temple. They also beat No. 1 Indiana on a neutral court earlier this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 13.5 points/game at home this year.

Butler is 37-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. Butler is 10-3 ATS 10-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Jim Crews is 4-16 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% in all games he has coached since 1997. Take Butler Friday.

Note - I released this play Thursday night anticipating the line would move so my long-term clients could get in early. It has done just that and it up to -3 in most places. I still recommend a wager on Butler -3 and to buy it to that number if it moves any higher.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +16

The Penn State Nittany Lions are way undervalued heading into this game with the Illinois Fighting Illini. That's because they are winless in Big Ten play despite coming so close so many times. There's no question this team is going to continue to fight to try and earn that first conference victory, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get it tonight as a 16-point road underdog at inconsistent Illinois.

Penn State has shown that it is not going to throw in the towel. It has gone 2-0 ATS in its last two games with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point underdog, and an impressive 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog. There's no way this team should be catching this big of a number against the Fighting Illini tonight.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to its current four-game winning streak which includes victories over Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern. With Michigan on deck, this is a big letdown spot for the Illini as they'll simply be overlooking the Nittany Lions. Remember, this is the same Illini team that has ugly losses to Purdue (61-68), Minnesota (67-84), Wisconsin (51-74), Northwestern (54-68) and Michigan (60-74) on its resume. I have no doubt the Nittany Lions can hang tonight.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, it tends to let down and not play well following a blowout home win. I look for that to be the case against tonight. Roll with Penn State Thursday.

15* Georgia/Arkansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas -10

The Arkansas Razorbacks (16-9) are making a nice push here of late to stake their claim in an NCAA Tournament bid. They have won four of their last five, including home wins over Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71) to really boost their resume. They realize they need to finish out the season strong to make the Big Dance so they have every reason to be motivated tonight.

Off back-to-back losses to Alabama (45-52) at home and Ole Miss (74-84) on the road, the Georgia Bulldogs have little to play for. They had won five straight prior, but now all of their momentum is gone. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect because of it and to simply just play out their season and look forward to the SEC Tournament. They aren't "in the now" mentally like the Razorbacks are.

Arkansas has been one of the best home teams in the country all season. It is 15-1 at home this year while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points/game. Georgia is just 3-7 in all road games this season, scoring a mere 59.0 points/game. It won't be able to keep up with a Razorbacks team that is scoring 83.7 points/game at home this year.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* Kansas/Oky State ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas +1

The Kansas Jayhawks are going to be highly motivated for revenge tonight. They lost their only home game of the season to these same Oklahoma State Cowboys by a final of 80-85 on February 2nd. I look for these Kansas players to want this game more than any other game they have played this season because of it.

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has simply been getting all of the breaks in close games of late. Four of its last six wins have come by 5 points or less. It won't be so fortunate tonight.

Bill Self is 16-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite as the coach of Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Kansas Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs will roll tonight over the Bradley Braves in Missouri Valley Conference action. Drake wants revenge from a 57-67 loss at Bradley on January 29th in their first meeting of the season. I look for them to get it tonight considering how poorly the Braves have played on the road this year.

Bradley is 3-7 in true road games this season. In fact, it is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games in MVC play, losing by double-digits each time. Its road losses over this span include Indiana State (53-68), Northern Iowa (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79).

Drake comes in hungry for a win following four straight losses to tough competition in Illinois State, Evansville, Wichita State and Northern Iowa. It's not like the Bulldogs are playing that bad either as three of the four losses came by single digits. Drake is 7-5 at home this season which includes impressive wins over Evansville (83-69), Creighton (74-69) and Indiana State (74-71).

Drake is 9-1 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in these spots by an average of 9.0 points/game. The Braves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Bet Drake Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight. Both teams are struggling of late, but I like Ohio State's chances of snapping out of it better since it is playing at home tonight.

Both teams have lost three of their last four. However, Minnesota's losses have come to Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State, while Ohio State's losses have come against Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan with two of those on the road. That's why I'm much less worried about the Buckeyes' recent struggles rather than the Gophers. Minnesota really hasn't been playing well for quite some time now as it has lost seven of its last 10 games overall. This team is consistently overvalued.

Ohio State has really dominated this series in recent meetings. It has gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota. Four of those wins came by double-digits.

The Buckeyes are 13-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points/game. The Gophers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Gophers. Take Ohio State Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Michigan State ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1.5

The Spartans have been absolutely rolling since their 70-75 loss to Indiana on January 27th. They have gone 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 against the spread while beating the likes of Minnesota and Michigan along the way. That includes a dominant 75-52 victory over the Wolverines despite being a 1.5-point underdog in that contest. There

20* WVU/K-State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on West Virginia +11

The West Virginia Mountaineers are 6-7 in Big 12 play with an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize they need a road win like this against Kansas State to boost their chances of playing in the Big Dance.

West Virginia has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks. It has won four of its last five games overall, which includes two double-digit road victories at Texas Tech and TCU. The Mountaineers also have a road win at Texas and a 2-point road loss at Iowa State on their resume this season.

I have no doubt that the Mountaineers want revenge badly after falling 64-65 at home to Kansas State on January 12th in their first meeting of the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will have a hard time getting motivated after already beating WVU once. There is a good chance K-State comes out flat after beating Baylor by 20 on Saturday as well.

This play falls into a system that is 133-55 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Bet West Virginia Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -1

The Iowa Hawkeyes are showing their best value of the season Sunday as only a 1-point home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is an Iowa team that is on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. As a result, it won't be lacking any motivation tonight to get a win.

Also motivating these Hawkeyes is the fact that they lost a heartbreaker at Minnesota 59-62 on February 3rd just three weeks ago in their first meeting of the season. They'll want payback from that defeat and I like their chances of getting it at home.

Iowa has clearly played its best basketball of the season at home this year. It is 12-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in all home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points/game. Its only losses have come to Michigan State and Indiana by a combined 7 points, which are two of the top teams in the country. The Hawkeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.

Minnesota is not playing well at all right now and it has no business being favored because of it. The Golden Gophers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games overall with all three wins coming at home. They have lost each of their last four road games.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Minnesota is 1-12 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. win. These four trends combined for a 34-3 (92%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State +5

The Missouri State Bears remain one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. This team has made me more money than any other team in the country in this season. I will continue to back them Saturday as I believe they are undervalued as a road underdog to lowly Southern Illinois.

The biggest reason Missouri State is undervalued right now is its 8-18 record. The average bettor looks at that record and wants nothing to do with the Bears. Missouri State has quietly gone a sensational 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall as a result.

While the Bears are 6-8 SU in Missouri Valley play and in the middle of the pack of the conference, the Southern Illinois Salukis are just 3-11 in the MVC and a bottom feeder. The Salukies have no business being favored in this contest.

Missouri State won the first meeting between these teams this season 70-59 despite being a 5-point home underdog. That win should come as no surprise considering this has been a one-sided series in recent years. Missouri State is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last 7 meetings with Southern Illinois dating back to 2010.

The Bears are 7-0 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Missouri State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Salukis are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Southern Illinois is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Take Missouri State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +10

The Michigan State Spartans are in a big letdown spot today against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are coming off a huge win over in-state rival Michigan at home on Tuesday. It's only human nature for them to not get emotional ready to face a team with a losing record like Nebraska.

Making it even more difficult for the Spartans to get motivated is the fact that they have already beaten the Cornhuskers once this season. Michigan State beat Nebraska 66-56 at home on January 13th as a 17-point favorite. I like the Huskers' chances of staying within double-digits this time around.

Nebraska is 9-6 at home this season with wins over the likes of USC, Northwestern and Penn State. It has also played teams like Wisconsin (41-47) and Ohio State (56-63) close at home. Michigan State is just 5-3 in true road games this season.

The Huskers are 9-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season. Michigan State is 2-8 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oregon -3

The Oregon Ducks should be a much bigger favorite Saturday over the lowly Washington Cougars. Oregon is a team that would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today, but it realizes it cannot afford a slip up if it wants to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

While the Ducks (20-5) have everything to play for, the Cougars (11-14) have almost nothing to play for at this point in the season. Washington State has lost five straight games coming in to drop to 2-10 in Pac-12 play this season. It has no chance of beating one of the top teams in the conference Saturday.

This play falls into a system that is 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams as an underdog or pick (WASHINGTON ST) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 3 points or less.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Washington State, winning all four games by 7 points or more. The Ducks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Arkansas +1

The Arkansas Razorbacks should not be an underdog at home Saturday to the Missouri Tigers. We all saw what this team was capable of at home when it beat then-No. 2 Florida 80-69 on February 5th less than two weeks ago.

Arkansas is a stellar 14-1 at home this season where it is scoring 84.4 points/game and allowing 65.7 points/game. It is outscoring its opponents by a whopping 18.7 points/game at home this year. This team clearly feeds off of its home crowd.

Missouri hasn't traveled very well at all this year. It is a woeful 1-5 in true road games this season with its only win coming against lowly Mississippi State, which is the bottom feeder of the SEC.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Missouri is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +9

The Oklahoma Sooners are showing some of their best value of the season as a 9-point road underdog to the rival Oklahoma State Cowboys Saturday. This is a game that the Sooners really need if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma a bubble team right now, while the Cowboys would be in the Big Dance if the season were to end today. That's why I do not believe the motivational factor will be on Oklahoma State's side despite the fact that Oklahoma won the first meeting of the season between these teams.

The Sooners won the first meeting convincingly at home by a final of 77-68 as only a 2-point favorite. Oklahoma State should be no more than a 2-4 point home favorite in the rematch in my opinion. The Cowboys are simply overvalued right now due to their six-game winning streak coming in, which includes three wins by a combined 9 points.

Oklahoma is 18-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Cincinnati ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Georgetown +4

The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That has been evident by their 11-7 record against the spread in all lined games this year. They are finally starting to get some recognition with a Top 25 ranking.

Georgetown comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 against the spread in its last six games overall. That includes road wins of then-No. 24 Note Dame (63-47) and Rutgers (69-63), as well as home wins over then-No. 5 Louisville (53-51) and then-No. 18 Marquette (63-55).

A big reason for the Hoyas

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Colorado +2.5

The Colorado Buffaloes (16-7) need this win over Arizona (20-3) to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. They'll be highly motivated for that reason tonight, and also to get revenge on these Wildcats, who stole one from them in the first meeting of the season.

Colorado still insists it was wronged in last month's loss to Arizona, and the time for revenge is here. These teams opened conference play in Tucson on Jan. 3, and Colorado led by 16 with 12:40 left in regulation of a 92-83 overtime loss.

Arizona used a 10-2 run over the final 1:35 of the second half to draw even, but the game will be remembered for Sabatino Chen's 3-pointer that banked in as regulation expired and seemingly gave the Buffaloes the victory.

The officials reviewed the play and determined that the ball was still on Chen's fingertips when the lights around the backboard went on. Colorado disagreed at the time, and nothing has changed its opinion.

The Buffaloes suffered a hangover from that defeat, dropping four of their first five games in Pac-12 play. However, they have responded by playing their best basketball of the season over the past few weeks, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Arizona lost at home to California 69-77 on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. It has been overvalued over the past few months due to its fast start, and that has been evident considering that the Wildcats are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This team is not as good as its record, and it should not be favored tonight.

Colorado has taken care of business on its home court this season. It is 9-1 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.3 points/game. Its only loss came by a mere 3 points to UCLA (75-78) on January 12th. The Buffaloes have double-digit home victories over both Stanford (75-54) and California (81-71) in Pac-12 play.

The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Colorado is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Roll with Colorado Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on UMass +12.5

The UMass Minutemen should not be catching double-digit points to Virginia Commonwealth tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back UMass showing arguably their best value of the season. This is a game they are looking at as a great chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume.

The Minutemen come in playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point on the road to Charlotte.

UMass has beaten quality opponents in Richmond, La Salle and St. Josephs during this stretch. Dating back further, it is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games overall with all three losses coming by 8 points or less.

VCU has been overvalued over the past month and that is the case again tonight. It is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall winning just twice by double-digits during this span. Those wins came against lowly Duquesne and Fordham.

This team is not nearly as good as it is getting credit for. It lost at Richmond (74-86) and at home against La Salle (61-69) towards the end of January, which are two teams that UMass has beaten.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and there's no question that the Minutmen are the better squad when we do that. UMass is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS against opponents that VCU has also faced, outscoring them by an average of 9.7 points/game. VCU is 5-2 SU & 1-6 ATS against those same opponents, only outscoring them by 6.0 points/game.

The Rams are 7-20 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UMass is 32-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.

The Minutemen are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. UMass is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. VCU is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Minutemen. Take UMass Thursday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Georgia Tech -2.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are showing solid value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Clemson Tigers. I believe Georgia Tech is the better team, and that will certainly show at home tonight.

The Yellow Jackets are playing their best basketball of the season of late. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wake Forest (82-62), Virginia (66-60), and a road victory at Virginia Tech (64-54).

Georgia Tech's two losses in their last five games came by a combined five points. One of those losses was at Clemson (60-63) on January 29th just two weeks ago, which clearly puts the Yellow Jackets in revenge mode.

Georgia Tech is 10-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.2 points/game. Clemson has lost three straight games coming in, and it is 0-5 on the road in conference play this season with all five losses coming by 3 points or more.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC foes. Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 ACC contests. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* Oregon/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -2

The Washington Huskies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Oregon Ducks. I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory Wednesday because of it.

Washington has lost two straight and six of its last seven coming in with five of those losses coming by single-digits. That includes a 76-81 loss at Oregon on January 26th, which has the Huskies motivated for revenge.

Oregon is ripe for the picking right now as it has lost three of its last four with its only victory coming at home over lowly Utah 73-64 as a 13-point favorite. It lost at Stanford 52-76, at Cal 54-58 and home vs. Colorado 47-48.

A big reason for Oregon's recent struggles is the fact that it has been without one of its best players in Dominic Artis (10.2 PPG, 3.8 APG). He has missed the last five games with a foot injury and is expected to miss Wednesday's contest as well.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Washington and Oregon over the last few years. The home team has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2011, winning each time by 4 points or more.

The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Washington is 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. These last five trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -1

The Vanderbilt Commodores are showing solid value as only a 1-point home favorite over the Tennessee Volunteers Wednesday night. This is an in-state rivalry that is always played closer to the vest.

That's why I have no doubt Vanderbilt is going to be laying it all on the line to get a win in this one. The Commodores lost a heartbreaker to the Vols in their first meeting this season, dropping a 57-58 decision at Tennessee on January 29th as an 8.5-point dog.

Tennessee is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It is just 1-6 in true road games this season. Home-court advantage has certainly been huge in this series recently. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.9 points/game. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Nebraska +24

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are simply catching way too many points against the Indiana Hoosiers tonight. I believe Nebraska is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and it will be a profit maker from here on out.

While Nebraska is just 3-8 SU in Big Ten play, it is a very profitable 7-4 ATS in those 11 contests. It has not been prone to the blowout, either. It has not lost any of its last 10 Big Ten games by more than 19 points. It is 3-1 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes blowout victories over Northwestern (64-49) and Penn State (67-53).

Indiana remains the No. 1 team in the country, which means it has a big target on its back. Off a huge 81-68 win at Ohio State on Sunday, the Hoosiers are certainly in a letdown spot tonight as they return home to face Nebraska. They won't be motivated enough to win this game by 24-plus point.

This play falls into a system that is 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 20 or more points (INDIANA) - red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=50% of their shots.

This play falls into another system that is 74-35 (67.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 20 or more points (INDIANA) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Indiana is 0-6 ATS after a game being called for 10+ less fouls than opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 8-19 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more since 1997. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Take Nebraska Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on DePaul +11.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They're coming off a 5 Overtime thriller Saturday, outlasting Louisville 104-101. Off such a huge win over a Top 10 team, the Irish will have a very hard time showing up tonight against DePaul.

The Irish will also find it hard to show up for this game considering they just beat DePaul on the road 79-71 (OT) on February 2nd less than two weeks ago. They clearly won't bring the kind of effort it takes to put away the Blue Demons by double-digits.

Conversely, DePaul comes in highly motivated to avenge that overtime loss to rival Notre Dame. It also is hungry for a victory following eight straight losses in Big East play, five of which have come by 11 points or less. The Blue Demons will have no problem getting up to face the rival Irish tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested rivalry throughout the years. 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less, including six of the last seven being decided by 10 points or fewer.

This play falls into a system that is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (DEPAUL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games.

DePaul is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is 15-29 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2008. Roll with DePaul Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +15

The Virginia Tech Hokies are showing some of their best value of the season as a huge road underdog to rival Virginia tonight. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for the Hokies to easily stay within this inflated number.

Virginia is in a big letdown spot here. It is coming off an 80-69 road win at Maryland on Sunday, and it also has road games against UNC and Miami on deck. That makes this a look-ahead spot for the Cavaliers. Also, they will only be playing on one days' rest, so this is a tired team right now.

Another reason Virginia will have a hard time getting motivated to play tonight is the fact that it already won at Virginia Tech 74-58 on January 24th in their first meeting of the season. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Cavaliers simply pulled away late.

Virginia Tech clearly wants revenge from that defeat, and it has shown that it can hang on the road this season. The Hokies won at Georgia Tech 70-65 as a 10-point underdog, played Clemson to a 70-77 game as an 11.5-point dog, and took North Carolina to overtime as a 16.5-point dog.

The Hokies are 8-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. They are only losing in this spot 58.6 to 61.6, or by an average of 3.0 points/game. Virginia Tech is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* K-State/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -7.5

You can bet your bottom dollar that the Kansas Jayhawks will be laying it all on the line tonight to get a win over the rival Kansas State Wildcats. I believe that max effort will be more than good enough to cover this generous 7.5-point spread.

Kansas has lost three straight games coming in for the first time since 2005. The fifth-ranked Jayhawks are looking to prevent the program's first four-game skid since an eight-game slide in 1989, which was also the last time they dropped back-to-back home games. History is certainly on our side tonight folks.

The Jayhawks also trail Kansas State by one game for first place in the Big 12, giving them even more reason to be motivated tonight. They beat the Wildcats 59-55 on the road in their first meeting this season.

Kansas has simply owned Kansas State throughout the years. It is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 meetings with the Wildcats. Recent home meetings have been absolute blowouts as well. Kansas is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Kansas State dating back to 2007, winning all six contests by 14 points or more.

This play falls into a system that is 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (KANSAS ST) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. Take Kansas Monday.

15* Marquette/Georgetown Big East Line Mistake on Georgetown -4.5

The Georgetown Hoyas are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a 17-4 start this season while making backers a ton of money along the way, especially of late. Georgetown is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall.

I believe Marquette is one of the most overrated teams in the land and it will be exposed tonight. The Golden Eagles have benefited from several close victories this season, but they will be exposed tonight by a better Hoyas team.

Georgetown wants revenge from a 48-49 road loss at Marquette in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Playing at home this time around, where the Hoyas are 12-1 and outscoring opponents by 9.8 points/game, I look for them to get payback in blowout fashion tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GEORGETOWN) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

Marquette is just 2-4 in true road games this season. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. The Hoyas are 8-2 ATS against Big East opponents this season. Bet Georgetown Monday.

15* Washington/USC Pac-12 BAILOUT on Washington +2.5

The Washington Huskies should not be an underdog to the USC Trojans tonight. After losing three of their last four games to arguably the three best teams in the Pac-12 in Oregon, Arizona and UCLA by a combined 11 points, the Huskies will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight.

Two of those losses came on the road at Oregon (76-81) and at UCLA (57-59), so this team has proven it can play with anyone in the conference anywhere. USC is one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, and it is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

The Trojans (10-13) have been winning their close games of late, proving victorious in three of their last five games overall with those three wins coming by a combined 9 points. Their luck runs out tonight against a much superior Washington team that is clearly better than its 13-10 record would indicate.

The Huskies absolutely crushed USC in both meetings last season, and I look for that to be the case again tonight. Washington won 69-41 at home as an 11-point favorite on February 4th, and 80-58 on the road on March 1st. The Trojans will be overmatched in this one as well.

This play falls into a system that is 74-38 (66.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.

Washington is 6-0 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season. The Trojans are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons. These four trends combined for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies. Take Washington Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon State PK

The Oregon State Beavers get the nod Sunday at a pick 'em over the Colorado Buffaloes. I believe the Beavers are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight, which has been the case over the past few weeks, actually.

That's evident by the fact that Oregon State is a superb 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, consistently being overlooked by oddsmakers. All of their losses have come by 10 points or less during this stretch, and this team is clearly better than its record 12-11 would indicate.

Colorado has been a great home team this season, but it has been a different story on the road. The Buffaloes are just 3-6 in true road games this season with losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington and Utah. Off a big 48-47 win at Oregon on Thursday, Colorado is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings between these teams dating back to 2003. The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings last season with Oregon State winning 83-69 on March 3rd, and Colorado winning 82-60 on February 2nd. Bet Oregon State Sunday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much heavier home favorite Sunday over the Indiana Hoosiers. They'll return home highly motivated after a tough 74-76 (OT) road loss at No. 3 Michigan on Tuesday.

Now, the Buckeyes take on No. 1 Indiana, which fell at Illinois 72-74 on Thursday. That means Ohio State will have had two extra days to prepare for the Hoosiers, which is a huge advantage.

While the Hoosiers have been shaky on the road at times this year, Ohio State has been rock-solid at home. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.5 points/game.

Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Indiana. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Buckeyes are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Hoosiers dating back to 2009.

The Buckeyes are 10-0 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by a ridiculous 25.6 points/game. Roll with Ohio State Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State +16.5

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I have been riding them with a ton of success in Missouri Valley play, and I'm going to continue riding this money-maker Saturday night.

Missouri State is an insane 11-1 ATS in conference play this season despite being just 5-7. The biggest reason this team is underrated is because bettors overlook them due to their 7-17 record on the season. However, this team is much better than its record would indicate, and that has been proven by its incredible ATS mark in MVC action.

Wichita State is simply not as good as it is cracked up to be. The Shockers have been stunned in each of their last three games, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS with losses to Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois.

The Bears also enter this game with revenge in mind following their 52-62 home loss to Wichita State as an 11-point underdog on January 23rd. Missouri State has not lost to Wichita State by more than 15 points in any of their last 17 meetings dating back to 2006. That makes for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Bears pertaining to tonight's spread of 16.5. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE DAY on UMass -3

The UMass Minutemen should be a much bigger home favorite over the St. Joseph's Hawks Saturday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout victory for the home team in this one.

UMass is looking to boost its resume after a 15-6 start to the season. It cannot afford to lose this game if it wants to make the Big Dance, and it certainly knows it. At 13-8 on the season, the Hawks are basically just waiting for the Atlantic 10 Tournament to roll around as that is their only chance of getting in.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series since 2010 with all five wins coming by 3 points or more, and four by 8 points or more. In both meetings last season, the home team rolled to 9 and 11-point victories.

The Minutemen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. UMass is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet UMass Friday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks are going to be more motivated for a win Saturday than they have been all season. That's because they are coming off back-to-back losses with a home setback to Oklahoma State, and an embarrassing road defeat at TCU.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the Jayhawks will be playing angry and with a chip on their shoulder Saturday as they travel to face the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners are not playing well themselves, losing two straight and four of six coming in.

I look for Oklahoma to be overmatched once again in this one, just as it was the first time these teams got together on January 26th. Kansas rolled to a 67-54 home victory as a 12.5-point favorite in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.

Kansas has won 10 straight meetings with Oklahoma dating back to 2006. Each of its last eight wins in this series have come by 9 points or more, including seven by 11 or more. This has been a one-sided series to say the least, and it will continue to be that way Saturday. Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +1.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are in a huge letdown spot Saturday. I don't even expect them to show up at Vanderbilt after knocking off No. 2 Florida at home on Tuesay by a final of 80-69. They simply did everything right to win that game.

It's human nature for a team like Arkansas to have a letdown following such a big win. I look for the Razorbacks to continue to struggle on the road in this one. They are 0-5 in true road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points/game.

Off three straight losses by a combined six points, including two by exactly one point, the Commodores are clearly motivated for a victory Saturday. This team is the definition of a squad that is better than its record. I look for Vanderbilt to come out and prove that with a blowout home win over the Razorbacks here.

Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is getting outscored by 14.7 points/game in this situation. The Razorbacks are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. win. Arkansas is 18-45 ATS in its last 63 road games. Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri -6.5

The Missouri Tigers will be looking to bounce back from a tough 68-70 loss at Texas A&M on Thursday. While they have struggled on the road all season, it has been a completely different story at home.

Missouri is a perfect 13-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.0 points/game. It is 5-0 at home in SEC play with four of its five wins coming by 14 points or more.

Ole Miss is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That has shown in recent games as it has lost two of its last three once it took a step up in competition. The Rebels fell at home vs. Kentucky 74-87 on January 29th before going on the road and losing at Florida 64-78 on February 2nd.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OLE MISS) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997. Take Missouri Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona State -3

The Arizona State Sun Devils are showing excellent value Thursday as a small home favorite over the Cal Bears. I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory tonight while easily covering this generous number.

Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 17-5 SU & 11-6 ATS in all games. It has been absolutely dominant at home, going 13-2 SU while outscoring opponents by 9.3 points/game.

At 13-8 SU & 7-12 ATS on the season, Cal is one of the most overrated teams in the land. It is coming off back-to-back home wins over Oregon State and Oregon by a combined 7 points, setting it up for a big letdown spot here tonight as it hits the road. The Bears are just 3-4 SU in true road games this season.

The Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Cal is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. The Sun Devils are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. ASU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games, while Cal is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Roll with Arizona State Thursday.

Note - This line has been fluctuating quite a bit today. I still recommend a bet on Arizona State -5 or better as I fully expect them to run away with this one. My best recommendation would be to buy it to -3 if it's -125 or less to do so, otherwise just go with anything at -5 or better. It is currently -4 in most places as of 12:00 EST.

15* Indiana/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Illinois +8

The Illini realize they need to get things turned around in a hurry if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Remember, this is the same team that started 12-0 with double-digit wins over Butler (78-61), Gonzaga (85-74) and Ohio State (74-55), so they have proven they can beat some of the best teams in the country.

Indiana is clearly in a letdown spot after its huge win over No. 1 Michigan on Saturday. College Gameday was there, so the stage really doesn

15* Baylor/Oky State ESPN No-Brainer on Baylor +7.5

The Baylor Bears come in highly motivated to bounce back from two straight losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State by a combined 11 points. They had won six of their previous seven games before this skid with their only loss coming at Kansas.

This is certainly a bubble team looking to pick up a signature win to improve its resume in terms of the NCAA Tournament. Baylor has proven it can win on the road this season with victories at then-No. 8 Kentucky (64-55), at Texas Tech (82-48) and at TCU (82-56).

Oklahoma State is in a huge letdown spot after such a big win at Kansas on Saturday. There

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -2.5

The Michigan State Spartans (18-4) seem to get better as the season progresses year after year under head coach Tom Izzo. That has certainly been the case again this season as they are clearly playing their best basketball of late. They have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming at current No. 1 Indiana by a final of 70-75 as a 9.5-point underdog.

Michigan State is 13-0 at home this season as the Breslin Center continues to be one of the toughest places in the country to play. It is outscoring opponents 72.1 to 55.9 at home, or by an average of 16.2 points per game. All 13 of those wins have come by 3 points or more.

Minnesota has not been playing very well of late. It has lost four of its last six with its only wins coming at home against Nebraska and Iowa. The Spartans have won four of their last five meetings in this series, so their 76-63 road loss in their first meeting this season was rare to say the least.

In fact, Michigan State is a perfect 13-0 in its last 13 home meetings with Minnesota dating back to 1999. It has won all 13 of those games by 6 points or more. That's long-term evidence that I'll gladly back with a big wager tonight.

The Spartans will be the more rested team having last played on January 31st in an 80-75 win over Illinois. They have had nearly a full week to prepare for Minnesota, and they certainly want revenge after losing the first meeting. Meanwhile, the Gophers last played on Sunday, February 3rd, so they have had much less time to prepare. Bet Michigan State Wednesday.

Note - I put out Michigan State -2.5 as soon as the lines came out on Tuesday. I figured the line would move and it has. I still recommend a bet on the Spartans -4, which is the current line as of 10:00 AM EST. Otherwise, buy it to -4 or better if you have to.

20* Ohio State/Michigan ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan -6

The Wolverines have a lot of reason to be motivated heading into this one. They are coming off just their second loss of the season Saturday with a 73-81 setback at current No. 1 Indiana. They want to make that loss a distant memory real quick, and the only way to do that is to beat Ohio State at home Tuesday night.

They also want revenge from a 53-56 loss at Ohio State in the first meeting between these teams on January 13th. They dug themselves an early hole, falling behind 22-34 at halftime before fighting their way back only to fall short by 3. I look for the Wolverines to dominate from start to finish at home this time around.

Michigan is a perfect 12-0 at home this season. It is scoring 78.5 points per game while allowing 55.7 points per game. As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 22.8 points per game at home this year. Ohio State is just 3-3 in true road games this season.

The Wolverines are 43-21-2 ATS in their last 66 games overall. Michigan is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following a S.U. loss.

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons. The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Michigan is 6-0 ATS after a game where they attempted 7 or less free throws over the last 2 seasons. The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Wolverines. Bet Michigan Tuesday.

Note - I put out Michigan -6 as soon as the lines came out Monday. I see that the line has already moved pretty drastically, which is what I expected to happen. This is the benefit of being a long-term client to be able to get in early on the best available lines as soon as I release my picks. I still recommend a bet on Michigan up to -9, but this pick will be graded at -6.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Missouri State +12.5

Few handicappers on the planet have been riding Missouri State as much as I have during the Missouri Valley Conference season. The Bears have made me and my premium clients a ton of money here recently, and I believe that continues tonight.

Missouri State is underrated because of its 7-16 record on the season, which is very misleading. As a result, the Bears have gone a sensational 10-1 ATS in conference play this season. I believe they are once again undervalued as a double-digit road dog to a mediocre Northern Iowa team in this one.

The Panthers are just 12-11 on the season, including 5-6 in MVC play. They have no business being a double-digit favorite in this one. Northern Iowa is coming off a huge 57-52 home win over a ranked Wichita State team on Saturday, which sets it up for a big letdown spot tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last few years. Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 12 points or less. That 12-point win came last season when Missouri State beat UNI 63-51 at home. The other six meetings over this span have been decided by 9 points or fewer. This makes for a perfect 7-0 system since 2009 backing the Bears with tonight's spread of 12.5.

The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Missouri State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Panthers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The road team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Take Missouri State Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Seton Hall +16

The Seton Hall Pirates are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers tonight. This is a much-improved team that is 13-9 on the season and fully capable of beating anyone in the Big East.

Pittsburgh is in a huge letdown spot tonight. It is coming off a big win over No. 6 Syracuse on Saturday and it will have a hard time getting motivated to face the unranked Pirates just two days later. That will allow Seton Hall to stay within 16 points tonight.

Seton Hall beat Pittsburgh 73-66 in their lone meeting last season. The Pirates have won two of the past four meetings over the last three seasons.

This play falls into a system that is 173-102 (62.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (PITTSBURGH) - off a home win against a conference rival, in February games.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It is actually coming back to win in these spots 63.4 to 62.8 on average. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Bet Seton Hall Monday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa +10.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes should not be catching double-digit points this afternoon to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is an Iowa team that starts three freshman and is only getting better as the season progresses. It is certainly undervalued in this spot.

Minnesota is not playing well of late, and it is ripe for the picking because of it. The Gophers have lost four of their last five games overall with their only victory during this stretch coming at home against lowly Nebraska.

Iowa is 3-2 in its last three games overall, which includes a 70-50 road win at Northwestern, and a 70-66 home win over Wisconsin. Its only two losses during this stretch both came on the road by single-digits against Ohio State (63-72) and Purdue (62-65, OT).

The Hawkeyes clearly match up well with the Gophers as evidenced by last season. Iowa went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in both meetings with Minnesota last year. It won 63-59 at home as a 1.5-point dog, and 64-62 on the road as an 8.5-point dog.

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. win. The Hawkeyes are 12-1 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. They are winning in this spot 76.9 to 65.4, or by an average of 11.5 points/game. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -3

The Iowa State Cyclones are showing awesome value as only a 3-point home favorite over the Baylor Bears Saturday. It needs this win for its tournament resume, and I believe it goes out and gets it in blowout fashion.

Iowa State's only losses have come on the road this season, including heartbreaking road defeats in Big 12 play to Oklahoma State (76-78), Texas Tech (51-56) and Kansas (89-97, OT).

The good news is that the Cyclones return home Saturday where they are a perfect 11-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.8 points/game. In fact, dating back to last season they are riding an 18-game home winning streak, and they are 27-2 inside Hilton Coliseum over the last two seasons.

While ISU's home record this season is a great reason to back them, it's not the most important. My biggest reason for backing the Cyclones Saturday is the fact that they are a perfect 10-0 at home against Baylor all-time. That's right, they have never lost in Ames to the Bears folks. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -3

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. Oklahoma is off to a 14-5 start this season while going an impressive 10-5 ATS. Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last year's team and it's really starting to pay dividends.

Oklahoma is off to a 6-2 start in Big 12 play to really show what it is capable of. That includes a 74-71 road win at Baylor on Wednesday. Its only Big 12 losses have come on the road at Kansas and at Kansas State.

That road loss against the Wildcats in their first meeting this season puts the Sooners in revenge mode and wanting this game more. I like their chances of getting it considering they are 7-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.8 points/game.

Oklahoma is 18-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Kansas State is 0-6 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 4-15 ATS in road games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wildcats are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

25* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri State +2

I've been riding Missouri State with a ton of success during conference season. I'm going to continue to do so Saturday and label the Bears as my MVC GAME OF THE YEAR. This is my strongest release in this conference all season.

Missouri State has been a covering machine in conference play. It is a sensational 9-1 ATS in MVC action this season with its only ATS loss coming against Creighton. A big reason this team remains undervalued is due to its 6-16 overall record. There's no question this team is far better than its record would indicate.

The Bears will be out for revenge Saturday against an Evansville team they lost to 59-62 (OT) on the road in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd. They were a 13-point dog in that game and nearly won outright. Now, as a home dog this time around, I fully expect them to win outright.

Missouri State is 12-3 SU in its last 15 home meetings with Evansville. The home team is 12-2 SU In the last 14 meetings (not including neutral court). The Purple Aces are just 2-7 SU on the road this season.

The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Missouri State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Missouri State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Missouri State Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on South Carolina -3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks should be a much heavier home favorite Saturday over the Georgia Bulldogs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the Gamecocks as I fully expect them to run away with this one.

South Carolina comes in highly motivated for a win after losing three of its last four games, including an embarrassing 36-75 loss at Florida on Wednesday. Its lone win during this stretch came by a final of 75-54 at home over Arkansas, and I expect a similar blowout today.

While the Gamecocks are a solid 8-4 at home this season, the Bulldogs are a mere 1-6 on the road. Georgia is only scoring 54.4 points/game away from home this season, getting outscored by 11.3 points/game in the process.

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Gamecocks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Northwestern -1.5

The Northwestern Wildcats are showing awesome value as a small home favorite over the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday. I'll gladly take advantage by backing them at an excellent price today.

Northwestern will be motivated to bounce back from back-to-back road losses to Michigan and Nebraska. It was last seen at home beating Minnesota 55-48 as an 8-point underdog.

Purdue is just 2-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. Curtis Painter is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games as the coach of Purdue. Take Northwestern Saturday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Boston College +1

The Boston College Eagles are going to be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they welcome the Clemson Tigers to their house. The Eagles have lost five straight, including three by 5 points or less against a daunting schedule.

I like the Eagles' chances of getting back in the win column against a Clemson team that it has owned throughout the years at home. The Eagles have won five of their last six home meetings in this series. In fact, the home team is 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings dating back to 2003.

Clemson has squeaked by with back-to-back home wins over lowly Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech by a combined 10 points. However, the Tigers have not played well on the road this season. They are just 2-4 in true road games this year.

Boston College is 7-0 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 Saturday games. Roll with Boston College Saturday.

15* Arizona/Washington ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5.5

The oddsmakers have overcompensated for Washington

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +2.5

Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points, it's certainly worth a look. That's the case here tonight as the ninth-ranked Bulldogs are a 2.5-point dog to the Saint Louis Billikens.

Butler is 17-3 this season with its only losses coming to Xavier, Illinois and La Salle. It has won 14 of its last 15 games overall with its only loss coming to a single point (53-54) at La Salle on January 23rd. That was actually a decent loss and one that will keep this team grounded going forward.

Somehow, Butler remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. That's evident by the fact that it is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, and a sensational 13-5 ATS in all games this season. Leading scorer Rotnei Clarke (16.7 PPG) just recently returned from injury in an 83-71 win over Temple last game, which only helps the Bulldogs even more going forward.

Saint Louis is a quality team, but with five losses on the season, it is no match for Butler in this one. It has recent losses to Temple (54-64) and Rhode Island (80-82), and it is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a 2.5-point home favorite here.

Brad Stevens is 29-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Butler. In fact, the Bulldogs are a dominant 7-1 as an underdog this season. As stated before, this team is always worth a look when they are catching points.

Butler is 8-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Butler is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Butler is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These five trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Butler Thursday.

15* Illinois/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Illinois +8.5

Sure, the Illini have struggled of late, but that gets factored into the odds as well. Now, the books are asking Michigan State to win by nearly double-digits to beat you if you bet Illinois, so the value is certainly with the road underdog in this one.

Remember, this is the same Illinois team that beat Ohio State, Gonzaga and Butler all by double-digits en route to its 13-1 start. Take a look at the AP Poll and you will find all three of those powerhouses ranked inside the Top 11.

Each of Michigan State

15* St. Mary's/San Francisco West Coast BAILOUT on San Francisco +8.5

The San Francisco Dons should not be catching 8.5 points at home tonight against the St. Mary's Gaels. I'll gladly side with the value and back one of the most underrated teams in the country.

That's evident by the fact that San Francisco is 9-12 SU but a very impressive 11-5-1 ATS. It has gone 6-4 at home this season with several impressive showings. The Dons even played Gonzaga tough on the road last time out, falling 52-66 as a 20-point favorite.

Now, the Dons want revenge from a 72-78 loss at St. Mary's as a 13-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on January 12th just over two weeks ago. In fact, San Francisco has lost each of its last three meetings with the Gaels all by 7 points or less. There's no question the Dons are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one because of it.

The Gaels are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Dons are 25-8-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. San Francisco is 39-14 ATS in its last 53 vs. WCC opponents. The Dons are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with San Francisco Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Virginia Tech +10

The Virginia Tech Hokies are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a 10-point home underdog to the Miami Hurricanes. Off back-to-back losses, the Hokies return home hungry for a win tonight. They are a solid 8-3 at home this season.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its current 7-game winning streak. There's no question that this is a quality team, but after back-to-back blowout home wins over FSU and Duke, the Hurricanes are in an ideal letdown spot tonight.

The Hurricanes' last road game resulted in a 60-59 win at Boston College as a 6-point favorite. In fact, all three of their losses have come on the road this season. The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series. Take Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Missouri State +20

I have been backing Missouri State with a ton of success over the past month. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and once again the Bears are undervalued as a 20-point road underdog to Creighton tonight.

While Missouri State is just 4-5 SU in conference play, it is an incredible 8-1 ATS against MVC opponents this season. Four of its five losses came by 10 points or less. Sure, the one exception was a 52-74 home loss to Creighton, but that puts the Bears in revenge mode tonight.

The Bluejays will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that they already beat by 22 points this season. That will allow the Bears to keep it close for most of the game as the Bluejays won't be mentally in it. Creighton has shown it is vulnerable by losing two of its last three games, including a 69-74 loss at Drake.

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Missouri State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Missouri State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on UMass +9

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as a 9-point road underdog to the La Salle Explorers tonight. These are two evently matched teams as the Minutemen are 13-5, while the Explorers enter with a 14-5 mark.

La Salle is way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over Butler and VCU by a combined 9 points. There's no question it is in a big letdown spot tonight after those two huge victories, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Minutemen win this thing outright.

Both meetings last season were decided by a combined 8 points with La Salle winning 82-75 at home, and 72-71 on the road. In fact, the Explorers have won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series. That clearly puts UMass in revenge mode as it will want this game more.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Explorers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. La Salle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a win. UMass has played its best basketball away from home this season as it is 5-1 SU in true road games. Roll with UMass Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Nebraska +19

This line is an overreaction from oddsmakers tonight folks. They expect Minnesota to bounce back and put an end to their 4-game losing streak. While that may be the case tonight, it won't be by 20 or more points against an underrated Nebraska team.

Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country when you look at where it is at now compared to where it started. The Huskers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which have all been in Big Ten play.

The Huskers have won two of their last three outright with a 68-64 win at Penn State as a 4-point dog, and a 64-49 home win over Northwestern as a 1-point dog. They played Michigan (47-62) and Michigan State (56-66) tough on the road this season in Big Ten action as well.

Minnesota is simply not playing well during its current 4-game losing streak. Sure, this is still a quality team, but it has not business being this heavily favored tonight against one of the most underrated squads in the country.

The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 2-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 1997 have been decided by 17 points or fewer. Also, Minnesota's biggest margin of victory over Nebraska in those 10 meetings is 12 points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system since 1997 backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Tuesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Vanderbilt +8.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. At 10-8 on the season, this is clearly a team in rebuilding mode. They miss arguably their best player in Jeronne Maymon, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

Tennessee has lost five of its last seven games with its only wins coming at home over Mississippi State and Alabama. That was a fortunate win Saturday as the Vols had to rally late for a 54-53 home win over the Crimson Tide, and that victory has them overvalued heading into this one.

Vanderbilt is playing its best basketball of the season here of late. It has won two of its last three games, while also taking Ole Miss to overtime four games ago. It won at South Carolina 58-51 before coming back home for a 73-61 win over Auburn. It did lost at Missouri 59-81 on Saturday, but that loss has it undervalued heading into this one.

This is an in-state rivalry that will be played close to the vest as it usually is. These teams have split each of their last six meetings dating back to 2010. All three of Vanderbilt's losses during this stretch came by single-digits.

Vanderbilt is 11-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is actually winning in this spot 66.1 to 60.4 on average. Tennessee is 4-15 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Pitt/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Louisville -6

The Louisville Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the Pittsburgh Panthers. In fact, I believe they will be giving more effort to get a win in this game than in any other contest all season.

Louisville comes in on a 3-game losing streak with three straight heartbreaking defeats to Syracuse (68-70), Villanova (64-73) and Georgetown (51-53). It hasn't lost four straight games in a single season in nine years.

"We have to get this win. It's a must game for us," head coach Rick Pitino said. "Because four (losses in a row), now you're on the verge of getting a sub-.500 record in the league, and you don't want to mess with that."

I believe Pittsburgh comes in overvalued due to its 4-game winning streak. Those four wins came against a soft schedule in Villanova, UConn, Providence and Depaul. Remember, this is the same Pittsburgh team that opened 1-3 in Big East play with losses to Cincinnati, Rutgers and Marquette.

The Cardinals are 9-1 at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 21.9 points/game at home this year. They are 8-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Louisville is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons. This is always one of the most well-conditioned teams year in and year out under Pitino because they have to be to be able to run his full-court press. Bet Louisville Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -10.5

The Creighton Bluejays are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Southern Illinois Salukis. While the Blue Jays are 17-3 this season, they are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wichita State and Drake by a combined 8 points.

I look for Creighton to take out its frustration on the lowly Salukis, who are just 8-11 on the season. Southern Illinois has lost eight of its last nine games overall with five of those losses coming by 11 points or more.

Southern Illinois G Jeff Early is expected to miss this game due to a suspension. That's a huge loss for the Salukis as Early is their second-leading scorer (12.7 PPG) and top rebounder (7.5 RPG).

Creighton has won nine straight meetings with Southern Illinois while going 7-2 ATS in the process. In fact, the Bluejays have really owned this series of late, winning three straight meetings with the Salukis all by exactly 19 points. The road team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and Creighton is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Bluejays are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 Sunday games. Creighton is 4-0-2 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS loss. The Salukis are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Southern Illinois dating back to 2007. Take Creighton Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri State +1

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season due to their 5-15 record. This team has gotten better as the season has gone on, and I've ridden them with a ton of success of late.

While Missouri State is just 3-5 SU in Missouri Valley Conference play, it is an incredible 7-1 ATS. One of its three wins came at Drake by a final of 77-65 on January 5th despite coming into that game as a 10-point underdog.

While the Bulldogs would normally be in revenge mode in this spot, they simply won't care about it after what just happened. Drake beat Top-25 opponent Creighton 74-69 on Wednesday, and there's no question that sets it up for a big letdown here against a Bears team that will be hungry for a win following four straight losses.

Missouri State is 26-6 SU in its last 32 meetings with Drake, including a ridiculous 14-1 SU in its last 15 home meetings dating back to 1997. The Bulldogs are 1-12 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Drake is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Missouri State Sunday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Auburn +7.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. They are off to a 16-2 start, which has caught the attention of oddsmakers and the betting public. They should not be laying 7.5 points on the road to the Auburn Tigers Saturday.

Ole Miss has done most of its damage at home this season, but it has just been so-so on the road. The Rebels have road losses to Middle Tennessee State and Indiana State. They also needed overtime to win at Vanderbilt as an 8-point favorite, won at Loyola-Marymount 73-70 as a 9.5-point favorite, and won against San Francisco 85-78 as an 8.5-point favorite in their other three road games.

Auburn comes in undervalued off three straight losses with two on the road to Arkansas and Vanderbilt, as well as a home loss to Kentucky. It will certainly be hungry for a victory to put an end to this skid. Remember, this is the same team that had won three straight against FSU, LSU and South Carolina before this skid.

Auburn is 11-1 ATS after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent since 1997. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

The Tigers are 7-0 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings. The Tigers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +14

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They should not be catching 14 points against the Kansas Jayhawks Saturday in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season for Oklahoma. Off a down year, this team came into the 2012-13 season undervalued, and they continue to be at this point of the season. The Sooners are 13-4 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.

Kansas comes in overvalued due to its 17-1 start this season. It is in a huge letdown spot after a big 59-55 road win at Kansas State on Tuesday. The Jayhawks have been shaky in a few home games this season. They needed overtime to beat Iowa State, while also topping Temple 69-62 as a 13-point favorite.

Three of Oklahoma's four losses have come by 9 points or less. Bill Self is 10-20 ATS in home games after 8 or more consecutive wins as the coach of Kansas. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols are very hungry for a win Saturday when they host the Alabama Crimson Tide. They have lost five of their last six and are desperate for a victory right now. They also want revenge from a 65-68 loss at Alabama in their first meeting of the season on January 12th just two weeks ago.

Alabama is overvalued right now due to its four-game winning streak coming in. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face the Vols again after winning the first meeting. The Crimson Tide are also in a big letdown spot because they are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky 59-55 on Tuesday.

Alabama is 3-15 ATS in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997. Tennessee is 24-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Vols are 9-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

The Vols are 7-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in home games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system over the last two years backing the Vols. Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -11.5

The Duke Blue Devils are highly motivated for a victory Saturday as they take on the Maryland Terrapins at home. They are coming off their worst loss of the season in a 63-90 setback at Miami on Wednesday. There's no question they will be looking to take out their frustration on the Terrapins Saturday.

Duke is 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 22.1 points/game. Maryland is just 2-3 on the road this year. The Terrapins are clearly overvalued, and that's evident by the fact that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Duke simply owns Maryland, winning five straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. Each of the Blue Devils' last four wins in this series have all come 13 points or more.

Maryland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Maryland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Terrapins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC foes. Maryland is 0-7 ATS in road games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Blue Devils. Bet Duke Saturday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Virginia Tech +5

The Virginia Cavaliers have no business being favored on the road tonight against in-state rival Virginia Tech. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home team as I believe the Hokies have a great chance to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some insurance.

Virginia is an excellent home team, but it has been simply atrocious on the road, which is why it should not be favored here. The Cavaliers are just 1-5 SU in games played away from home this year.

VA Tech has also been a poor road team, but it has been simply dominant at home. The Hokies are 8-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.5 points/game. Their home wins include Oklahoma State, Iowa and Wake Forest.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years. Both meetings last season were decided by exactly 2 points. Looking back further, all meetings between the Hokies and Cavaliers over the past three seasons have been decided by 7 points or fewer. In fact, nine of the past 10 meetings were decided by 7 points or less.

To no surprise, the underdog is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series dating back to 2009. The Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +8

The Tennessee Vols will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they travel to face the overrated Ole Miss Rebels. I believe there's a great chance the Vols win outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

Tennessee wants revenge from its worst loss of the season. Nothing went right as it fell 74-92 at home to Ole Miss on January 9th just two weeks ago. The Vols shot a woeful 38.5% from the field, including 7-of-26 from distance. There's no question they will be hungry for payback tonight.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to its 15-2 start this season. It has won seven straight coming in, and I have a good feeling it's starting to get to their heads. The Rebels will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Tennessee team they already beat by 18 points this season, which puts them on upset alert.

Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997. Tennessee is 16-4 ATS after a conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Tennessee Thursday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northwestern +9

The Northwestern Wildcats are showing awesome value as a 9-point home underdog to the Minnesota Golden Golphers tonight. Minnesota is clearly overvalued due to its 15-3 start and should not be this big of a favorite away from home where wins are very tough to come by in Big Ten play.

The Golden Gophers have finally come back down to earth with back-to-back losses to Indiana and Michigan, which are the two best teams in the Big Ten in my opinion. Minnesota's chances of winning the Big Ten took a big hit with those two defeats, and I look for it to suffer a mental hangover because of it.

It will be very tough for the Gophers to get up emotionally tonight to face a team that they already beat 69-51 at home on January 6th. There's no question that the Wildcats are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one as they want revenge from that loss that occurred just over two weeks ago.

Northwestern comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It won 68-54 at Illinois as a 10-point underdog on January 17th before coming back with a solid showing against Indiana at home on Sunday. It lost to the Hoosiers 59-67 as a 12.5-point underdog, and I believe it will stay within 9 points of the Gophers tonight as well.

The home team has won nine straight meetings in this series dating back to 2009. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Missouri State +11

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are playing their best basketball of the season in MVC play, yet they keep getting treating like a bottom feeder in the conference from oddsmakers.

I'll gladly take advantage of this false perception and back the Bears as a double-digit home dog to Wichita State tonight. While Missouri State is just 3-4 in MVC play, it is a dominant 6-1 ATS on the season. It has been an underdog in all seven games, and only once has it lost by more than 8 points, and that came against Creighton.

Wichita State is in a huge letdown spot tonight. It came into the season as one of the favorites to win the MVC, right alongside Creighton. Well, the Shockers now have the inside track after beating Creighton 67-64 at home on Saturday. However, off such a big win, there's no question they have a letdown tonight against Missouri State.

The Shockers really haven't been impressive on the road at all this season. They have a 60-69 loss at Tennessee and a 67-71 loss at Evansville. They also beat Drake 75-63 and Bradley 69-63 on the road in MVC play, which is far from impressive.

Missouri State has not lost by more than 7 points to Wichita State in any of its last eight home meetings with the Shockers dating back to 2005. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system since 2005 backing the Bears pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on St. John's +4.5

The St. John's Red Storm want revenge from their 56-58 home loss to Rutgers in their first meeting of the season on January 9th just two weeks ago. With home closely this series has been contested in recent years, there's no question the play is on the road dog tonight.

Incredibly, four straight meetings between St. John's and Rutgers have been decided by 3 points or less, and by a combined 9 points. The Red Storm are actually playing with double revenge having lost the last two in this series by a combined 5 points.

St. John's comes in playing very well having beaten Notre Dame 67-63 as a 7-point underdog, and also topping Depaul on the road 71-62 as a 3-point dog. Rutgers is coming off a heartbreaking 66-69 loss at Notre Dame and will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Rutgers is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Rutgers is 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 Wednesday games. The Scarlet Knights are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big East opponents. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take St. John's Wednesday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joseph's -7

Simply put, the St. Joseph's Hawks have underachieved this season with a 10-6 start despite returning all five starters from last season. However, that works to our advantage here as they are clearly undervalued as only a 7-point home favorite over St. Bonaventure (8-9).

St. Joseph's has really started showing signs of being undervalued by going a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They won at Duquesne 74-66 as a 6-point favorite and at Pennsylvania 79-59 as an 11.5-point favorite. They also lost at VCU 86-92 (OT) as a 12-point dog during this stretch.

St. Bonaventure has lost six of its last seven games overall. It is getting too much respect for its 81-78 win at Temple over the weekend, which has kept this line lower than it should be. The Bonnies are 2-6 in true road games this year, including recent ugly road losses to George Washington (59-78), Colorado State (64-85), and NC State (73-92).

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last six meetings. St. Joseph's has won 10 straight home meetings with St. Bonaventure. The last have all come by 7 points or more with victories by 14, 7, 11, 25, 31, 18 and 32 points. As you can see, their last seven home games in this series since 2004 have resulted in wins by an average of 19.7 points/game.

The Hawks are 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average of 14.6 points/game. Bet St. Joseph's Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston College +8.5

The Boston College Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They came into this year with little expectations after a rebuilding year last season in head coach Steve Donahue's first year on the job. Donahue has the Eagles playing much more competitive basketball in 2012-13.

While Boston College is just 9-8 on the season, there's no question this team is much better than its record would indicate. It has suffered three heartbreaking ACC losses in its last four games. It fell 73-78 to NC State, 72-75 to Wake Forest and 59-60 to Miami. There's no question it will be highly motivated for a win tonight after this tough stretch of losses.

Opposite of Boston College, this Maryland team isn't nearly as good as its 14-4 record would indicate. It has a 62-65 home loss to a down Florida State team, as well as road losses to Miami (47-54) and North Carolina (52-62). This is certainly a look-ahead game for Maryland, which has Duke on deck Saturday.

Also, the Eagles will come in the more prepared and fresher team having last played on January 16th in a 59-60 home loss to Miami. This will be just their 2nd game in 7 days, while the Terrapins will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. They last played on Saturday in a 52-62 loss at North Carolina.

Boston College is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Maryland is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Eagles. Bet Boston College Tuesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Villanova +11.5

The Villanova Wildcats are showing solid value as a double-digit home underdog tonight. This line is an overreaction from Louisville's home loss to Syracuse Saturday as the books expect the betting public to believe that the Cardinals will bounce back.

However, I look at it differently, feeling that the Cardinals are more likely to suffer a hangover from that heartbreaking 68-70 home loss to the Orange. It will be hard for these players to get up for Villanova after playing such a high-profile game over the weekend against Syracuse.

Meanwhile, Villanova is the team that has every reason to be motivated for a victory tonight. The Wildcats are looking to put an end to a 3-game losing streak heading in. They'll have no problem getting up to face Louisville tonight.

The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series. The two road wins came by 1 and 8 points. Rick Pitino is 6-16 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite as the coach of Louisville. Take Villanova Tuesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on South Carolina +14.5

With the distraction surrounding Missouri head coach Frank Haith right now, I'll gladly fade the Tigers at home as a 14.5-point favorite over the South Carolina Gamecocks tonight.

The NCAA is expected to notify Haith of allegations of "unethical conduct and failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance" stemming from his time as coach at Miami, according to a report by CBSSports.

This team isn't playing all well already, and they certainly don't need these distractions. The Tigers have lost two out of their last three in blowout fashion with a 49-64 loss at Ole Miss, and a 52-83 setback at Florida.

The distraction is bad enough, but when you couple that with Missouri's injury woes, and it almost has no chance of covering this inflated spread. Leading scorer Laurence Bowers (16.8 PPG) and 6th-leading scorer Keion Bell (8.9 PPG) are doubtful, while 5th-leading scorer Earnest Ross (9.6 PPG) is questionable.

Former Kansas State head coach Frank Martin is already turning around this South Carolina basketball program in his first year on the job. He has the Gamecocks off to a 11-6 start, which includes an 82-73 win at LSU as a 10-point underdog in their last road game. In fact, the Gamecocks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road this season.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MISSOURI) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse. Take South Carolina Tuesday.

15* Cincinnati/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +9

The Syracuse Orange are in a huge letdown spot Monday after a huge win at then-No. 1 Louisville by a final of 70-68 over the weekend. They will not have enough left in the tank to beat a very good Cincinnati team by double-digits today.

Cincinnati is off to a 16-3 start this season while posting three straight wins in conference play. Its three losses this season have come by a combined 8 points, which includes two 1-point defeats and a 6-point setback to Notre Dame.

What is most impressive about the Bearcats this year is the fact that they have played their best basketball on the road. They are a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, which includes road wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Xavier, Pitt, Rutgers and DePaul. They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome one bit.

Cincinnati is 10-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. These four tends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Rider +4

The Rider Broncs are showing excellent value as a 4-point home underdog to the Iona Gaels Sunday. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and that has really shown of late.

Rider is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has won four straight outright to get to 10-9 on the season. All four wins came by 7 points or more, and it is now ready to take on the overrated Gaels today.

Iona is overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak coming in. Two of those wins came by narrow margins on the road. One was a 66-62 win at Siena as an 11.5-point favorite, and the other was an 86-82 victory at Marist as a 9.5-point favorite. All six of Iona's losses have come on the road this season.

Iona is 0-6 ATS versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game this season. Rider is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997. The Broncs are 12-1 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Rider Sunday.

15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +11

The Utah Utes are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their 8-9 start. They are highly motivated for their first Pac-12 victory of the season Saturday. Clearly, when you look at most of their losses this season, its easy to see that this team is much better than its record would indicate.

Seven of Utah's eight losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes road losses to Arizona State (54-55) as an 8-point dog, to Arizona (57-60) as a 19-point dog, and home to UCLA (53-57) as a 7-point dog. There's no question that the Utes have what it takes to play with the Huskies tonight.

Washington is on a nice run right now, but with this run comes expectations from oddsmakers that it cannot live up to. It has won four straight while beating Washington State, Cal and Stanford on the road while also knocking off Colorado at home. The Huskies could easily be overlooking the Utes tonight and looking ahead to a five-game stretch that includes Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA.

This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Utah is 12-3 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Washington is 4-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Utah is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Roll with the Utes Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes (12-5) opened with a brutal Big Ten schedule, losing their first three to the likes of Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State. However, they proved what they were capable of by nearly upsetting both the Hoosiers (65-69) and Spartans (59-62).

Iowa exploded for its first Big Ten victory last Sunday in a 70-50 triumph at Northwestern. This is one of the more underrated teams in the country, and it is capable of beating anyone at home inside of rowdy Carver Hawkeye Arena.

The Wisconsin Badgers are in a huge letdown spot here after winning at Indiana 64-59 as a 10.5-point underdog on Tuesday. They have opened 4-0 in Big Ten play with two of their wins coming over lowly Penn State and Nebraska by single-digits. As a result, they are overvalued right now.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are in all home games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies (10-6) have played an absolutely brutal schedule in their last six games. They finally put an end to a 4-game losing streak by going on the road and knocking off Georgia Tech 70-65 in overtime as a 10-point underdog.

I like the Hokies to pick up back-to-back wins Saturday while facing the lowly Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-7). Virginia Tech is 7-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. It has impressive home wins over both Oklahoma State and Iowa.

Wake Forest is just 2-5 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game. It has blowout road losses to both Duke (62-80) and Clemson (44-60) in conference play. I expect a third straight blowout road loss for the Demon Deacons in ACC action today.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Virginia Tech has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Hokies are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Wake Forest dating back to 2006. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +10.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing their best value of the season as a double-digit underdog at Ole Miss Saturday. This is a team on the rise under second-year head coach Mike Anderson, and they are clearly underrated right now despite a solid 11-5 start.

I have no doubt that Ole Miss is one of the most overrated teams in the country after seeing them play several times this season. Ole Miss is off to a 14-2 start, but it is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It needed overtime to win at Vanderbilt last time out despite being a 9-point favorite.

This has been a very closely-contested rivalry in recent years. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 10 points or less. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to today's 10.5-point spread.

Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -4

The Penn State Nittany Lions are very hungry for their first Big Ten victory of the season. They played Michigan State tough at home on Wednesday, and I look for them to get that elusive first conference win today.

They'll host the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers, who I feel are the worst team in the Big Ten. They are just 2-5 on the road this season, scoring 57.9 points/game away from home. They are also winless in Big Ten play, which includes an 0-3 road record. They have lost all three of their conference road games by 10 points or more.

The home team one both meetings last season in Nebraska's inaugural Big Ten campaign. In fact, both were blowouts as the Huskers won 70-58 on January 11th, while the Nittany Lions had their revenge with a 67-51 triumph on February 11th.

Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Harvard +11

The Harvard Crimson are one of the most underrated teams in the country under former Michigan head coach Tommy Amaker. This team is much better than its 9-5 record would indicate as it has had some very close losses to some very good teams.

In fact, four of Harvard's five losses this season have come by less than 11 points. That includes road losses to UMass (64-67) as an 11-point dog, UConn (49-57) as a 9-point dog, and St. Mary's (69-70) as a 12-point dog. They have also won at Boston College (79-63) as a 4-point dog and at California (67-62) as an 11-point dog.

Memphis really only has one very good win this season, which was an 85-80 win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. This team has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Louisville, Minnesota and VCU all by 9 points or more. The Tigers are clearly overvalued today as a double-digit favorite.

Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 14.8 points/game. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Crimson are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Oregon State +15

The Oregon State Beavers are way undervalued heading into this showdown with UCLA tonight. They are coming off three straight losses to Oregon, Arizona State and Arizona all by 13 points or less. There's no question they'll be hungry for their first Pac-12 victory of the season tonight.

The UCLA Bruins are way overvalued heading into this one due to their current 9-game winning streak coming in. Each of their last six wins have come by 14 points or less, and with Oregon on deck Saturday, this is a huge letdown spot for the Bruins. They will clearly be looking ahead to their showdown with the Ducks this weekend.

Oregon State is a balanced team that features six different players scoring in double figures. They are without one of them in Angus Brandt, but they still have five averaging double digits, which is a rarity in college basketball.

Each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (OREGON ST) - off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Take Oregon State Thursday.

15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE NIGHT on Louisiana-Monroe +12

The LA Monroe Warhawks are showing excellent value as a double-digit road underdog to the South Alabama Jaguars tonight. The Jaguars are certainly overvalued in this spot, and they have been for about a month now as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games.

Because LA Monroe is just 3-10 on the season, it is clearly undervalued. That is also evident by the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Each of its last four losses have come by 9 points or less to MTSU, Troy, South Alabama, and UAB.

As you can see, they recently played South Alabama earlier this month on January 3rd, falling at home 72-77 as a 7-point underdog. That put the Warhawks in revenge mode as they will be facing the Jaguars twice within two weeks.

Six of South Alabama's eight wins this season came by 11 points or less, and the other two were against William Carey and Arkansas-Little Rock at home.

LA Monroe is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series dating back to 2009. All five games were decided by 7 points or less and by a COMBINED 19 points! Look for another closely-contested game with the Warhawks possibly pulling off the upset. Take Louisiana-Monroe Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Duquesne +10

The Duquesne Dukes should not be catching double-digits tonight at UMass. The Minutemen are clearly overvalued heading into this one due to winning eight of the last nine contests overall.

UMass has been extremely fortunate during this recent run as seven of its last eight wins have come by 9 points or less. In fact, the Minutemen are 11-4 this season, but only one of those eleven wins came by more than 9 points. That was a 75-61 home victory over Eastern Michigan as a 15-point favorite.

Duquesne is undervalued heading in due to its 7-9 start, which includes four straight losses all as underdogs. Remember, this is a team that beat West Virginia 60-56 as an 8-point dog, while also falling at Georgetown 55-61 as a 14-point dog earlier this season. This team is much better than its 7-9 record would indicate.

UMass was dealt a big blow when it lost second-leading scorer Jesse Morgan (13.4 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury on January 10th in a 62-70 loss at Saint Louis. I look for the Minutemen to really struggle without him the rest of the way, and to not be so fortunate in these close games.

You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time that Duquesne lost to UMass by more than 9 points. The Dukes have won four of their last six meetings in this series.

UMass is 0-7 ATS off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. The Minutemen are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Duquesne Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Troy +7.5

The Troy Trojans are showing excellent value as an 8-point underdog to the Florida Atlantic Owls tonight. These are two very evenly-matched teams with Troy coming in at 7-10, and FAU sporting a 9-9 record. I look for the Trojans to give the Owls a run for their money, possibly pulling off the upset.

The biggest reason I'm backing Troy is that this team is clearly undervalued due to its 7-10 record. I have no doubt that the Trojans are better than their record would indicate. That's evident by the fact that six of their last seven losses have come by 7 points or less. They have simply been victim of bad luck in close games.

Troy has turned the corner with back-to-back wins over Arkansas-Little Rock and LA-Monroe heading into this one. Now, it wants revenge from a 54-61 home loss to FAU on December 27th. The Owls are coming off a big win at Western Kentucky last time out, setting them up for a huge letdown spot here against a team they have already beaten once this season.

Florida Atlantic is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot 67.0 to 71.3 on average. The Owls are 0-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot 66.1 to 69.0. Bet Troy Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +6.5

The Boston College Eagles are showing great value as a home underdog to the Miami Hurricanes tonight. Boston College is one of the most underrated teams in the country. It is clearly turning the corner under veteran head coach Steve Donahue.

The Eagles are off to a solid 9-7 start this season while returning four starters from last year, which was Donahue's first with the program. Four of their seven losses have come by 5 points or less, including a 73-78 home loss to a very good NC State team. The Eagles are a solid 7-3 at home this season.

Miami is clearly overvalued heading into this one after winning four in a row SU & ATS coming in. This is a big letdown spot for the Hurricanes considering they have Duke on deck. This smell like a trap game for them, and I fully expect Boston College to win outright.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 8.8 points/game. All three of Miami's losses have come on the road this season. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Boston College Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +12

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value at home tonight against the Michigan State Spartans. I'll gladly back them as a double-digit home underdog as they look to build on their 7-3 home record this season.

Michigan State is one of the most overvalued teams in the country, which is obvious due to its 5-9 ATS record. It is ranked in the Top 25 due to a fortunate 14-3 start that has seen eight wins by 12 points or less. That includes a 66-56 home win over Nebraska as a 17-point favorite last time out.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Spartans considering their next four games after this will be against Top 25 opponents. There's no question these players are looking ahead to those four games and overlooking the Nittany Lions tonight. Even coach Tom Izzo believes that is very possible.

"I worry that maybe we're looking at (the records of the opposition)," Izzo said. "I guess we've got one more game and then we've got (four of the next five) against ranked teams or whatever. So, maybe we'll play better then, but we've got to play better Wednesday to win on the road."

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Penn State beat Michigan State 61-48 in its last home meeting.

Michigan State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Michigan State is 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Nittany Lions. Roll with Penn State Wednesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Maryland -1.5

The NC State Wolfpack are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off an 84-76 home victory over previously unbeaten and No. 1 Duke on Saturday. Off such a big win, it's only human nature for a team like the Wolfpack to suffer a letdown their next time out.

Off back-to-back close losses to Florida State (62-65) and Miami (47-54), the Maryland Terrapins are hungry for a victory tonight. They'll be ready to go against a Top 25 opponent while looking to improve upon their 11-1 home record this season. The Terrapins are outscoring opponents by 18.2 points/game at home this year.

Maryland has won nine of its last 10 meetings with NC State dating back to 2007. Looking back further, the Terrapins are 23-7 SU & 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings in this series. Maryland is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with the Wolfpack.

The Terrapins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. NC State is 7-18 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Maryland is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less since 1997. It is winning in this spot by 16.7 points/game. Bet Maryland Wednesday.

15* Conference USA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Rice +20

The Rice Owls are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a 20-point home underdog to the Memphis Tigers. While Rice is off to just a 3-12 start this season, I believe that former UCLA coach Ben Braun has this program headed in the right direction.

The Owls do have some impressive showings this season as big underdogs where they covered the spread. They lost at Temple 63-67 as a 26-point underdog, and they fell at Texas 41-57 at Texas as an 18-point dog, covering the spread in each contest.

Off five straight losses and three straight non-covers, the price is right to back the Owls tonight. Meanwhile, the Tigers are way overvalued due to their current six-game winning streak. They have some unimpressive performances in the role of the big favorite this year.

Memphis beat Samford 65-54 as a 26-point home favorite, beat Austin Peay 83-65 as a 28-point home favorite, beat Lipscomb 62-56 in a non-lined home game, beat Oral Roberts 72-57 in a non-lined home game, and topped East Carolina 67-54 as a 15-point home favorite. The Tigers failed to beat all five of these inferior opponents at home by more than 18 points, which is why I believe Rice is a great bet at home tonight as a 20-point dog.

The Tigers are 2-10 ATS versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997. The Owls are 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997. Braun is 29-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1997.

The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings, which dates back to 2006. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Rice. Bet Rice Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9

The Vanderbilt Commodores are showing great value as a 9-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels Tuesday night. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.

Ole Miss is way overvalued coming into this one due to its 13-2 start and its 5-game winning streak coming in. That's especially the case considering it beat Tennessee on the road before knocking off No. 10 Missouri at home in its last two games, respectively. The Rebels are in a big letdown spot tonight, and they cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers.

Vanderbilt is undervalued heading into this one due to its 6-8 start and losses in four of its last five games. Those four losses have all come to very good teams in Butler, Kentucky, Arkansas and Middle Tennessee State. Off their most embarrassing loss of the season with a 33-56 setback at Arkansas, there's no question the Commodores return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.

The Commodores have won five straight and eleven of their last 12 meetings with the Rebels. Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. SEC opponents. The Commodores are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Louisville/UConn ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Connecticut +7.5

The Connecticut Huskies should not be an underdog at home to the Louisville Cardinals tonight, let alone a 7-point dog. I'll gladly back these underrated Huskies showing their best value of the season tonight.

Connecticut is 12-3 under first-year head coach Kevin Ollie. Their three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road against New Mexico (60-66), NC State (65-69) and Marquette (76-82). Those are three very good teams that will likely be playing in the NCAA Tournament at season's end.

UConn is coming off a 65-58 win at Notre Dame as an 8.5-point underdog to really show what it is capable of. The Huskies are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3 points/game.

Louisville comes in overvalued due to its 15-1 start. It has opened with a very soft Big East schedule with wins over Providence, Seton Hall and South Florida. It now takes a step up in competition and will not be able to live up to the expectations it has created for itself from oddsmakers.

Rick Pitino is 4-12 ATS in road games after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more as the coach of Louisville. The Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. UConn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East foes. Bet UConn Monday.

15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite today against the Michigan Wolverines. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Buckeyes showing their best value of the season today.

Michigan is way overvalued due to its perfect 16-0 start this season. This is a very good team, but it has only played two true road games all season, and those came against overmatched Bradley and Northwestern. This will easily be the Wolverines' toughest challenge yet.

Ohio State will be highly motivated to put an end to the Wolverines' perfect start. Its fans will be rocking the building in this one, giving them the added emotional lift they need to pull off the win. The Buckeyes are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 25.8 points/game.

The Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average of 27.7 points/game. Roll with Ohio State Sunday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a big letdown spot here tonight. I look for them to suffer a hangover from their brutal 89-97 road loss at Kansas in overtime on Wednesday. The Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer to send the game to OT.

Texas comes in highly motivated for its first Big 12 victory of the season. It has lost a pair of heartbreakers with a 79-86 loss at Baylor and a 53-57 home setback against West Virginia. The value is clearly with the hungry road underdog in this one.

Texas really owns Iowa State having won nine of the last ten meetings in this series. Its only loss during this stretch came by 6 points on the road last season. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cyclones are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take Texas Saturday.

15* Duke/NC State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolf Pack will show Saturday why they were picked my many to win the ACC this season. They will hand the Duke Blue Devils their first loss of the season behind inspiration from a rowdy home crowd.

NC State is 13-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road against Michigan and Oklahoma State. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.5 points/game.

Duke is way overvalued due to its 15-0 start and No. 1 ranking. However, this will be the FIRST true road game of the season for the Blue Devils Saturday. That's right, they have played 15 games and have yet to play a true road game, which is the biggest reason they are so overrated right now.

This play falls into a system that is 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Duke is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Duke is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC foes. Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +13

The Vanderbilt Commodores are undervalued today as a double-digit home underdog to the Kentucky Wildcats. This is a team that has clearly improved as the season has gone along, winning four of their last six while covering the spread in four of their last five lined games.

Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued after covering the spread in each of its last five games overall. It has played an extremely soft schedule while winning five of its last six with all five victories coming at home against Samford, Portland, Lipscomb, Marshall and Eastern Michigan. It is not just going to roll Vanderbilt on the road tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years to say the least. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. In fact, each of the last nine meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer, making for a 9-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to tonight's spread.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.5 points/game. Add that 9-0 trend to this 6-0 one and we have a perfect 15-0 system backing the Commodores tonight. Bet Vanderbilt Thursday.

15* Miami/UNC ESPN Thursday ANNIHILATOR North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Miami Hurricanes. North Carolina will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 52-61 loss at Virginia on Saturday as it returns home where it has played well all season.

UNC is 7-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in all home games this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points/game. It has a few impressive home wins this year, including a 79-73 victory over a very good UNLV team as only a 2-point favorite.

Miami comes into this game overvalued after winning its last two games, including a 62-49 victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Remember, this is the same team that lost 50-69 to Arizona, and 55-57 to Indiana State in late December on a neutral court.

North Carolina is 10-0 SU in its last 10 meetings with Miami. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 18.5 points/game. UNC is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 20.5 points/game. These three trends combined for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2.5

The Tennessee Volunteers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over Ole Miss. I'll gladly back them at this price as they look to bounce back from a tough 80-85 home loss to Memphis last time out. That was the Volunteers' first home loss of the season, and a rare one to say the least.

Tennessee is 6-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points/game. It has beaten quality opponents in Wichita State and Xavier at home this season, and it will notch another home victory over Ole Miss in this one. In fact, the Vols have won eight straight home meetings with the Rebels dating back to 1997.

Ole Miss is way overvalued right now due to its 11-2 start against a very soft schedule. Their 11 wins have come against Miss Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, Rutgers, E. Tennessee State, Loyola-Marymount, San Francisco, Hawaii and Fordham. Tennessee will be the toughest team that the Rebels have faced all year.

The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Tennessee is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC foes. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Tennessee is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 24-9 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. Bet Tennessee Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -3

The Virginia Tech Hokies are highly motivated for a win tonight as they return home following a brutal stretch on the road. They have played four straight away from home while going 1-3 with three losses to some very good teams in Maryland, BYU and Colorado State.

Virginia Tech will be very happy to return home to a place where it has clearly played its best basketball of the season. The Hokies are 7-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 13.1 points/game. They have home wins over Iowa and Oklahoma State this year.

Boston College is just 1-3 on the road this season. Its lone road win came against Penn State, and its three losses were against College of Charleston, Dayton and Baylor. The Eagles also have bad home losses to Bryant (54-56) and Harvard (63-79) this season.

The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston College is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss. The Eagles are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Western Michigan +14

The Western Michigan Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are off to a very solid 8-5 start this season with their only losses coming on the road against some very good competition in Cornell, Michigan, Illinois State, Duquesne and NC State.

They are certainly battle-tested after playing three of the top teams in the country in Michigan, Illinois State and NC State. They also have impressive wins on the road against Loyola-Illinois (81-71) as a 5-pint dog, and South Florida (58-53) as a 10-point dog.

Akron is overvalued due to a five-game winning streak coming in that has gotten the Zips to 9-4 on the season. However, all five of those wins came at home against some very soft competition. Those five wins were against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cleveland State, Texas Southern, Princeton and Coppin State.

Western Michigan will be motivated to put an end to a 7-game losing streak to Akron. It has played the Zips very tough during this skid, though, as six of the seven losses have come by 12 points or less. That includes a 66-69 overtime loss to Akron in their lone meeting last season.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (AKRON) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 85 points or more. Take Western Michigan Wednesday.