20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Xavier NIT ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 19-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.  They handled their business against Dayton and Belmont in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Xavier is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with four losses by double-digits and an upset loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament.  They survived Cleveland State by 4 as 11-point favorites and then beat Florida thanks to the Gators shooting just 32.8% from the field.  They won't be so fortunate against Vanderbilt, the best team they have faced in the NIT thus far.  They may not have their best player in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG), who suffered a knee injury against Florida and is questionable.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-16-4 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  The Musketeers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 14-5 SU & 13-6 ATS in all games away from home. 

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.  Then they upset USC in the opening round as 2-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 18th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Walker Kessler away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Auburn has been grossly overvalued down the stretch in going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers should not be laying 7.5 points to the Hurricanes today.  Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Wisconsin CBB No-Brainer on Iowa State +5

It has been a bad look for the Wisconsin Badgers in their last three games.  They lost outright to Nebraska as 13.5-point favorites, lost outright to Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites and needed a late surge to put away Colgate 67-60 as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover.

The Badgers have been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season winning almost all of their close games, so their record is inflated.  They actually rank 7th in KenPom's luck factor, and he makes them less than a 1-point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral.  I agree with that number and think there's value with the Cyclones here.

Iowa State struggles against explosive offensive teams with athletic big men.  That's not Wisconsin.  The Badgers rely on defense and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are very similar to LSU, which Iowa State upset 59-54.  This is going to be another ugly, low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium.  I always like siding with the dog in this spot.

Iowa State is a perfect 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season with upset wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa and LSU.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as favorites.  Bet Iowa State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 18-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Dayton has some key injuries that I don't think they'll be able to overcome here on the road against an underrated team from the SEC.  The Commodores are fully healthy and will have a big home-court advantage here as the fans are excited to see this team in the postseason.  I watched them handle Belmont last round and bet on them, and I'm backing them here again as a short home favorite.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* Houston/Illinois CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -4.5

The Houston Cougars are a legit national title contender.  They are consistently undervalued in the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars have gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and won the AAC Tournament by winning all three games by double-digits.  Then they beat a very good mid-major team in UAB by 14.

Illinois was fortunate to even advance to face Houston.  They only led for 25 seconds against UT-Chattanooga and managed to pull out the 54-53 victory.  They won't be so fortunate against one of the best teams in the country here in Houston.  

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  They don't have the guards to match these elite Houston guards.  The Cougars have the big men inside to stifle Kofi Cockburn.  So the difference in this game is Houston is going to dominate Illinois on the perimeter.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season and 24-9 ATS in its lsat 33 neutral site games.  The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games.  Bet Houston Sunday.

20* Memphis/Gonzaga CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +10.5

Gonzaga got a tough draw having to face this red-hot Memphis team in the Round of 32.  The Bulldogs are legitimately on upset alert because the Tigers are showing down the stretch how good they can be when they play up to their talent potential.

Memphis is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall with its only losses coming to Houston and SMU.  Note that Memphis also upset Houston twice during the regular season before losing in the AAC Championship Game to the Cougars, which is too be expected.  They also avenged a loss to SMU with a win over the Mustangs in the conference tournament.  Then they made easy work of Boise State in the opening round leading by double-digits throughout.

Gonzaga actually trailed Georgia State with 13 minutes to go before going on a crazy run to make the final score look like a blowout when it was really a competitive game.  The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I just don't think this Gonzaga team is nearly as dominant as last year's version that made it to the National Championship Game.

Memphis has the athletes that are going to give the slower Bulldogs problems.  Jalen Duren has the size inside that will make life way more difficult on Gonzaga big men Timme and Holmgren.  Things won't come as easy for them as they are used to due to the size and athleticism of Memphis as a whole.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games and remember, they won the NIT last year so they have that experience that has helped them this postseason.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Take Memphis Saturday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a veteran team loaded with seniors that returned all five starters from last season.  They were disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they are putting all their chips in one basket to try and win that NIT.

That was evident in their 80-68 road win at St. Louis as 3.5-point underdogs in the opener.  St. Louis has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so that win was no small feat.  Now they are catching 6 points at BYU and I don't think BYU is any better than St. Louis.

Northern Iowa is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  BYU is disappointed to be playing in the NIT after choking down the stretch, going 6-6 SU in its last 12 games overall with all six wins coming as a favorite of 7 points or more, including five as double-digit favorites in games they were supposed to win.  They were also upset outright three times as favorites.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Northern Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  BYU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* St. Peter's/Murray State CBB No-Brainer on Murray State -8

The Murray State Racers are 31-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

Look for the Racers to make easy work of a St. Peter's team that is coming off a historic upset over Kentucky on Thursday.  It's very common for teams that pull a huge upset in the first round to fall flat in the second round.  I think that will be the case for the Peacocks here.  Murray State is a legitimate Final 4 contender, while St. Peter's is a one-hit wonder.

It was a bad look for the Peacocks in the non-conference as they lost to Stony Brook, Siena, St. Francis-NY, St. John's by 21 and Providence by 14.  Keep in mind Kentucky led by 8 with just a couple minutes left before falling in OT.  And Murray State led by 9 over San Francisco with three minutes left before foul trouble and injuries had the Dons making the comeback to force OT.  But Murray State is back to full strength for this game as they got lucky in the injury department coming out of that game unscathed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (St. Peter's) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS since 1997.  Murray State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -11.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing up to their potential now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won the Big 12 Tournament and then blasted Texas Southern 83-56 in the opening round.  Now they'll make easy work of the Creighton Bluejays.

Give Creighton credit for going 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  They even lost starting PG Ryan Nembhard a few games ago and played well without him.  They overcame a 9-point deficit in the final two minutes to beat San Diego State in overtime in the opening round.

Unfortunately for the Bluejays, that OT win came at another cost.  They lost their best big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) in the closing minutes of that SDSU game to a season-ending injury.  He led the team with 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG on 72.7% shooting in four postseason games and it's a huge blow.  Kansas is going to get whatever it wants in the pain against the Bluejays without Kalbrenner as a rim protector, and they are going to be much easier to defend without him as well.

Plays on neutral court teams (Kansas) - an explosive offensive team averaging 76 PPG or more against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Jayhawks are going to run the short-handed Bluejays out of the building today.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* UNC/Baylor CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is nowhere near as good as they were last year when they won the NCAA Tournament.  I'm expecting an early exit from them, and it may just come here against the Tar Heels.  They are still without LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and these losses are going to prove too tough to overcome.

The Bears have been overvalued for over a month going just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They barely beat Iowa State at home in their regular season finale and then went on to get upset by Oklahoma in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.  They did crush a bad Norfolk State team in the opening round, but that has them overvalued here.

The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after two straight games making 78% of its free throws or better this season.  Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

20* Colgate/Wisconsin CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Wisconsin -7.5

I cashed in Providence yesterday over South Dakota State as the Jackrabbits were the single most popular upset pick in the tournament.  Providence was grossly underrated all season and continued to be as only 2-point favorites over SDSU in the opening round.  Well, like most think Providence is a lucky team, most also think Wisconsin is a lucky team.

The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title thanks to winning almost all of their close games.  That's the same route Providence took by winning almost all their close games.  I think it has the Badgers undervalued as only 7.5-point favorites over Colgate in the Round of 64.  Colgate is a very popular upset pick here.

This will essentially be a home game for the Badgers being played in Milwaukee, WI which I think is getting overlooked.  I was not impressed with Colgate in the non-conference as they had losses to NC Statel, Harvard, Northeastern, Pittsburgh and Lehigh by single-digits and St. John's, Monmouth, Vermont, Niagara and Cornell by double-digits.  

They did most of their damage against the weak Patriot League.  They played the 339th-ranked schedule in the country while Wisconsin played the 19th.  Colgate ranks just 203rd in the country in adjusted defense and it's hard to trust a single-digit underdog that defends that poorly to keep it close against a top-notch program like Wisconsin.

Colgate is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 non-conference road games.  Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  The Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +8

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season.  The Fighting Illini are 22-9 SU & 13-18 ATS this season.  They have a great big man in Kofi Cockburn, but their guards are very underwhelming surrounding him.  The Fighting Illini are definitely on upset alert in the Round of 64.

Chattanooga went 27-7 this season and what is most impressive about that is they didn't lose a single game by more than 11 points, so they were competitive in all 34 games.  That 11-point loss came at Murray State, which went 30-2 this season and is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chattanooga has a very good big man in Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG), who can match up with Cockburn inside.  The Mocs are 55th in adjusted offense and 93rd in adjusted defense, so they are balanced.  They also played the 89th-toughest schedule in the country, so they are battle tested.  They upset VCU on the road, which is no small feat.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Mocs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss but a SU win.  Chattanooga is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss overall.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Chattanooga Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -4

The Alabama Crimson Tide are cheap in the Round of 64 as only 4-point favorites over Notre Dame.  This team was overvalued during the regular season due to what they did last year, going just 11-20-1 ATS.  But that's why we are getting them at a discount because they have been money burners all season.

Alabama played the #1 toughest schedule in the entire country.  So they are battle-tested heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I like the fact that the Crimson Tide play at the 11th-fasted pace in the country, which will have them capitalizing on the tired legs of Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish will indeed be tired.  They had to go to double-overtime on Wednesday to defeat Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio.  Then they had to take the long flight Wednesday night to San Diego, CA.  They can't possibly have much left in the tank after that effort and that flight, and I expect it to show in their play Friday night.  Look for the Crimson Tide to run them out of the building.

Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog.  The Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Plays on favorites (Alabama) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami +2

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS in all games away from home.  This game will be played in Greenville, SC and if anything they will have the home-court advantage over USC, which has to travel across the country.

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 17th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Isaiah Mobley away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

USC comes in struggling having gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  The lone win was a 4-point victory over Washington as 6.5-point favorites in the conference tournament.  They lost to UCLA twice by 10 and 6 points and to Arizona by 20 at home.  I don't trust the Pac-12 much in this tournament outside of Arizona and perhaps UCLA.

The Hurricanes are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  USC is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Trojans should not be favored over the Hurricanes in this one.  Roll with Miami Friday.

15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -16

Purdue went 11-0 in the non-conference this season with seven wins by 20 points or more.  I fully expect them to crush Yale by more than 16 points in the Round of the 64 in the NCAA Tournament Friday.

Yale has some concerning losses in the non-conference that makes me believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Purdue.  The Bulldogs lost 44-80 at Seton Hall, 64-86 at Auburn, 60-87 at St. Mary's and 77-91 to Iona on a neutral.  Purdue is better than all of those teams with the exception of perhaps Auburn.

I just don't think the Bulldogs have the firepower on offense to score with Purdue.  They rank 209th in adjusted offense this season and average just 7 made 3-pointers per game at a 33% clip.  Purdue ranks 3rd in adjusted offense this season and makes 9 3's per game at a 39.1% clip.

Yale is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers went 0-9-1 ATS in their final 10 Big Ten games this season which is keeping this number shorter than it should be.  This is actually a great 'buy low' spot on them.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Murray State -1.5

The Murray State Racers are favored for good reason.  They went 30-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

San Francisco shouldn't have even made the NCAA Tournament.  Every time they stepped up in class they lost this season.  Their lone signature win was at home against Davidson early in the season.  They lost to Loyola-Chicago, BYU, Gonzaga (three times by double-digits) and St. Mary's (twice).  They didn't earn hardly any resume building wins.

Now the Dons have to travel across the country to face Murray State in Indianapolis Thursday.  This will essentially be a home game for the Racers as it is less than a five-hour trip from Murray, Kentucky to Indianapolis and you know their fans will be there to support this historic team.  San Francisco will be without 1st-team All-WCC F Yauhen Massalski (13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who played the first 31 games of the season before having to sit out against Gonzaga with a knee injury.

San Francisco is 1-9 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Dons are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Racers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Murray State Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing some of the best basketball in the country with the exception of their loss to red-hot Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.  The Razorbacks are still 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I think that loss to the Aggies has bettors worried about them, but I'm not one bit.

Arkansas checks all the boxes of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They are 16th in adjusted defense and 40th in adjusted offense while rank 28th in tempo, so they like to push the pace.  They are a good rebounding team and they take care of the basketball.

There is simply too much love for Vermont in the opening round.  Yes, the Catamounts have won eight straight, but they played in one of the easiest conference in the country.  They have the 332nd-ranked strength of schedule while Arkansas is 44th.  We saw Vermont struggled when they stepped up in class in the non-conference with double-digit losses to both Maryland and Providence and upset losses to UNC-Greensboro and Oakland.  This will be by far their toughest test to date.

The Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Razorbacks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vermont is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Vermont is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make less than 31% of their 3-pointers this season.  Arkansas is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana +3

The Indiana Hoosiers have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less to Purdue, Iowa and Rutgers.  So they haven't lost any of their last eight games against some great Big Ten teams by more than 3 points, and here they are catching 3 points against an overrated St. Mary's team from the WCC.

I love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as underdogs in a game they can win outright.  They have been through the gauntlet and showed their resolve in a 66-58 win over Wyoming in the First Four Tuesday.  I like the fact that they already have a game under their belts, and they also beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament before losing on a buzzer-beater to Iowa.  They are battle-tested in these win-or-go-home situations.

St. Mary's lost to three NCAA Tournament teams in the non-conference in Wisconsin, Colorado State and San Diego State.  I would argue Indiana is better than all those teams other than Wisconsin, and right now they may be playing better than the Badgers.  Indiana went 9-1 in non-conference play this season with its only loss coming by 2 points in OT at Syracuse.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  St. Mary's is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Gaels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as favorites.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* SDSU/Providence CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -2

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are the world's most popular underdog this in the opening round to pull the upset.  We'll gladly fade that bias and take the value by backing 4th-seeded Providence as only a 2-point favorite over 13th-seeded South Dakota State in the Round of 64.

Providence has gotten no love all season.  Everyone has called them overrated but they just kept winning games, going 25-5 this season.  And here they basically just have to win to cover as slight 2-point favorites.  Providence gets after it defensively and ranks 32nd in adjusted offense, while the Jackrabbits rank a woeful 223rd in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State feasted on an easy conference and schedule.  While Providence played the 56th-toughest schedule, SDSU played the 249th.  They lost to Alabama by 16, Washington by 11, Idaho by 14 and Missouri State by 12 in the non-conference.  They also had several close wins in conference play.  This will be their toughest test of the season with perhaps the exception of that game against Alabama.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Providence) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Providence is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  Bet Providence Thursday.

15* NIT Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Nicholls State +15.5

SMU thought they were going to the NCAA Tournament.  It's safe to say they are disappointed they are playing in the NIT.  That's going to make it hard for them to cover this massive 15.5-point spread against Nicholls State because they are lacking the motivation to do so.

Nicholls State really impressed me with some of their non-conference results.  They upset Northern Iowa as 14.5-point road dogs, only lost by 13 at TCU as 13.5-point dogs, only lost by 3 at Wisconsin as 17.5-point dogs and only lost by 14 at Purdue as 29-point dogs.  If they could stay within 14 of all four of those teams on the road, they can certainly stay within 15.5 of SMU in this flat spot for the Mustangs.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in its last nine March games.  Nicholls State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after failing to cover three of its last four against the spread.  SMU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. good teams that win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Mustangs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Nicholls State Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 16-2 SU & 12-6 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game.  They should be much more than 7.5-point favorites over Towson in the opening round of the NIT Wednesday night.

Towson has lost to ACC teams each of the last two seasons in the non-conference with a loss at Pittsburgh this season and a 35-point loss at Virginia last season.  Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh by 16 in its lone meeting this season.

Wake Forest is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after going over the total in each of its last two games this season.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as favorites this season.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* Indiana/Wyoming First Four No-Brainer on Indiana -3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers saved their best basketball for last.  It was impressive watching them go from outside the bubble of the NCAA Tournament to in by going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Their three losses all came by 3 points or less to Rutgers, at Purdue and on a neutral against Iowa.  They also won and covered against Maryland and Minnesota in the regular season and then upset both Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.  They lost on a buzzer-beater to Iowa, which is one of the hottest teams in the country.

Wyoming was fortunate to even make the NCAA Tournament, becoming the 4th team from the Mountain West to make it which seems absurd.  The Cowboys went 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in their final nine games.  Mountain West teams always struggles in the NCAA Tournament due to playing an easy schedule, while the Big Ten teams always do well due to playing such a tough regular season schedule.

The Hoosiers will have a big home-court advantage here with thousands of fans making the 2-hour, 45-minute trip from Bloomington to Dayton for the First Four.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 80 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland State +12.5

Xavier struggled down the stretch to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers went 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against the Georgetown Hoyas, who went winless in Big East play this season.

They were on the bubble heading into the Big East Tournament and were promptly upset by Butler as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Musketeers had dreams of playing in the Big Dance and will be disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  That's why they should not be laying 12.5 points to Cleveland State in the opening round because they lack motivation.

This is a veteran Cleveland State team that made the NCAA Tournament last year and returned all five starters.  The Vikings will give the Musketeers a run for their money.  I was impressed with Cleveland State in several non-conference games.  They covered in a 10-point loss at BYU as 14.5-point dogs.  They also covered in a 5-point loss at Oklahoma State as 12.5-point dogs.

Xavier is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 March games.  The Vikings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Cleveland State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Musketeers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with Cleveland State Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -3.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 17-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Belmont has been overvalued all season, especially down the stretch.  The Bruins went 1-8 ATS in their final nine games overall.  They struggled in the non-conference as well losing to Ohio by 12 and LSU by 30.

These teams have two common opponents.  Vanderbilt upset LSU as 75-66 as a 3-point home underdogs, while Belmont lost 53-83 at LSU.  Austin Peay is the other common opponent.  Belmont beat them twice by 8 and 14 points, while Vanderbilt beat them by 26.

Belmont is 0-6 ATS in its last six March games.  Vanderbilt is 7-0 ATS in its last seven tournament games.  The Commodores are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Commodores are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Iowa/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -2

This is an incredible 'buy low' spot on the Purdue Boilermakers after going 7-0-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are winning games but not covering big spreads. But now they are just 2-point favorites over Iowa and basically just have to win to cover in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Boilermakers will have the rest advantage here playing their 3rd game in 3 days while the Hawkeyes will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. This is a great 'sell high' spot on the Hawkeyes, who have gone 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Purdue has won both meetings with Iowa this season. They won 77-70 at home as 13-point favorites but were up 20-plus points in that game before a late comeback by the Hawkeyes. They won 83-73 on the road as 2-point favorites. And now they are only 2-point favorites on a neutral, showing how much respect Iowa is getting right now. The Boilermakers are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings and their domination of the Hawkeyes continues today. Bet Purdue Sunday.

20* Richmond/Davidson Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Davidson -3.5

The Davidson Wildcats are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by double-digits. Their lone loss came at Dayton in the regular season finale in a meaningless game for them after already having the Atlantic 10 title wrapped up.

They have gotten back to playing to their potential in the Atlantic 10 Tournament with blowout wins over Fordham by 18 and St. Louis by 15. They will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, but since they won in blowouts they should still be fresh today.

Meanwhile, Richmond will be playing its 4th game in 4 days. The Spiders can't possibly have much left in the tank after needing double-digit second half comebacks to beat both Rhode Island and Dayton. Their luck runs out today against the best team in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson is 10-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Davidson won 87-84 at Richmond in their lone meeting this season. Bet Davidson Sunday.

15* Richmond/Dayton Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -2

The Dayton Flyers have saved their best basketball for last. They are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road. They also won on the road at VCU and at Richmond while beating Davidson at home as well.

The Flyers have the rest advantage in this game after receiving a bye into the quarterfinals and then beating UMass yesterday. Meanwhile, Richmond will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two hard-fought wins over Rhode Island and VCU. The Spiders won't have much left in the tank for the Flyers today.

Dayton won 55-53 at Richmond in their lone meeting this season to improve to 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The one-sided nature of this series will continue today due to the rest advantage for the Flyers. Take Dayton Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Davidson -3

The Davidson Wildcats have the advantage of only having to play one game thus far in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and it was a 74-56 blowout win over Fordham. They should still be fresh and ready to go.

Meanwhile, St. Louis will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 57-56 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday. The Billikens won't have nearly as much left in the tank as the Wildcats will for this game, and it's an early start time at 1:00 EST adding to their advantage.

Davidson beat St. Louis 79-58 in their lone meeting with this season to improve to 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. The Wildcats are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits. Their lone loss came at Dayton in the regular season finale in a meaningless game for them as they already had the A-10 regular season title wrapped up.

Davidson is 7-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season. Bet Davidson Saturday.

15* UCF/Memphis AAC ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -6.5

The Memphis Tigers have played their way from way out of the NCAA Tournament to at least on the bubble at a minimum by playing up to their massive potential down the stretch. They have gone 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with two upset wins over Houston by double-digits.

Now the Tigers have earned a bye into this round and will be fresh and ready to go. They play a UCF team that struggled to beat a bad South Florida team 60-58 yesterday as 8-point favorites. The rest and preparation advantage is heavily in the Tigers' favor here.

Memphis beat UCF 88-60 in their most recent meeting to improve to 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. UCF is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Memphis Friday.

20* Penn State/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -8.5

Give Penn State credit for making it to the quarterfinals by winning two games over Minnesota (60-51) and upsetting Ohio State 71-68 with a big second half comeback. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions are going to run out of gas today and have to play arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Purdue.

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have been sitting on a double-bye and will be playing their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. They will be motivated after a poor finish to the regular season, and I look for them to put it on the fatigued Nittany Lions today.

Purdue is 12-1 SU in its last 13 meetings with Penn State. Plays against neutral court underdogs (Penn State) - off two straight conference wins against an opponent that is off a close home win by 3 points or less are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS since 1997. The Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral court games as a favorite. Take Purdue Friday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -11

After crushing Georgia Wednesday, Vanderbilt overcame a double-digit deficit in the second half to beat Alabama 82-76 Thursday. Now the Commodores will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and won't have much left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Kentucky received a double-bye into this round and has a massive rest advantage because of it. Look for the Wildcats to put it on the Commodores and win this game going away.

The Wildcats have won 12 consecutive meetings with the Commodores. Vanderbilt is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games as an underdog. Take Kentucky Friday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on VCU -2.5

Richmond needed a 14-point comeback at halftime to beat Rhode Island 64-59 yesterday. The Spiders used a lot of energy for that comeback, and now they won't have much left in the tank for VCU today.

Meanwhile, the VCU Rams earned a bye into this round and will be playing their first Atlantic 10 Tournament game. They have the rest advantage, and they will put Richmond's fatigue to the test with their pressure defense. Look for the Spiders to make more mistakes than normal here.

VCU won both meetings with Richmond this season to improve to 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Spiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Richmond is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after two straight games giving up nine or fewer offensive rebounds. Roll with VCU Friday.

20* Indiana/Illinois Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Illinois -5

Indiana needed a massive comeback yesterday to beat Michigan. That effort will have taken a lot out of the Hoosiers, and they won't have much left in the tank for Illinois today.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are sitting on a double-bye after earning the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They have the rest advantage and will put it to use here against the Hoosiers with a blowout victory.

Illinois crushed Indiana 74-57 as 2-point road favorites in their lone meeting this season to improve to 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. The Hoosiers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Illinois) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997. Bet Illinois Friday.

15* MWC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego State -4

Fresno State needed overtime to beat a very bad San Jose State 69-67 as 13.5-point favorites yesterday. It was the continuance of poor play from the Bulldogs down the stretch as they fell to 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.

Now the Bulldogs won't have much left in the tank for San Diego State, which earned a bye to this round and is playing for its NCAA Tournament life. The Aztecs came up clutch down the stretch by going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming to the top seed in the Mountain West in Boise State by a single point on the road.

Look for the great play of the Aztecs to continue here with a win and cover against a Fresno State team they beat twice this season to improve to 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five wins by 9 points or more.

The Bulldogs are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games. The Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with San Diego State Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Connecticut -2

The Connecticut Huskies were playing as well as anyone in the Big East down the stretch. They went 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Creighton by 2 points.

One of those wins came 70-65 over Seton Hall and I believe we are getting the Huskies at a discount as only 2-point favorites here in the rematch. They have the rest advantage having a bye into this round while Seton Hall was tooth and nail with Georgetown yesterday in a 57-53 win.

That's a Hoyas team that went 0-20 in Big East play this season. The Pirates are now 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as favorites. Roll with UConn Thursday.

15* Penn State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -5

We are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount today after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They had a bye into this round while Penn State had to play yesterday in a 60-51 win over Minnesota.

That rest advantage will lead the Buckeyes to a win and cover here. Plus they will be motivated from that poor finish to the regular season. And they have won both meetings with Penn State by 12 and 5 points this season to improve to 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.

The Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Penn State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers. Take Ohio State Thursday.

15* C-USA Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Middle Tennessee -3

Middle Tennessee earned a bye with a 13-5 SU & 12-5-1 ATS record in Conference USA play this season. The Blue Raiders should be bigger favorites today over UTEP, which had to play yesterday in a 74-64 win over Old Dominion.

Middle Tennessee rolled to a 77-59 home victory as a 5-point favorite in its lone meeting with UTEP this season. It should be more of the same here with the rest advantage for a Blue Raiders team that likes to get up and down and will test UTEP's fatigue.

Middle Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after two straight games with 12 or fewer assists this season. UTEP is 0-6 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season. The Miners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs. The Blue Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites. Middle Tennessee is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games overall. Bet Middle Tennessee Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond -3.5

Rhode Island was in a 79-77 dog fight with Duquesne as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. Now the Rams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here while Richmond comes in off a bye and playing its first game of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

That rest advantage will lead the Spiders to an easy win and cover against a Rhode Island team that has been struggling for weeks. The Rams are just 3-11 SU in their last 14 games overall with two of those wins coming against Duquesne. 

Richmond won 70-63 as a 2.5-point road favorite in its lone meeting with Rhode Island this season to improve to 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Rhode Island is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven March games. Roll with Richmond Thursday.

15* VA Tech/Notre Dame ACC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame PK

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 15-5 in ACC play this season to earn this double-bye. They are one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they should be favored over Virginia Tech given their rest advantage.

Virginia Tech needed overtime to beat Clemson yesterday at the buzzer. The Hokies won't have much left in the tank for the Fighting Irish today.

Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last nine tournament games. Notre Dame is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Fighting Irish are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Notre Dame Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -7.5

The Miami Hurricanes went 22-9 this season and 14-6 SU & 14-6 ATS in ACC play this season to earn a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. That extra rest will come into play in a big way here against Boston College.

The Golden Eagles will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days while the Hurricanes will be playing their 1st game of the tournament. Not only that, but Boston College needed OT to beat Wake Forest yesterday. It's safe to say they will be running on fumes here and won't have much left in the tank for the Hurricanes.

Miami won 81-70 as a 4-point road favorite in its lone meeting with Boston College this season on March 2nd just a week ago. The Golden Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 80 points or more. Boston College is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Miami Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -7.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes played as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch. They went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games of the regular season with their lone loss coming 72-74 at Illinois as 4-point dogs. They gave that game away by missing a ton of free throws, which is uncharacteristic of them.

Now the Hawks are rested having a bye into this round while Northwestern had to play Nebraska yesterday. They needed a big comeback to win 71-69 against the Huskers. That big comeback will have taken a lot out of them, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa owned Northwestern 82-61 as a 10-point home favorite in their lone meeting this season. The Hawkeyes are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Wildcats with all four wins by 13 points or more. 

Iowa is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as favorites. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Butler/Providence Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -7.5

Providence went 24-4 this season with two losses to Villanova by 5 points or less. The Friars are legit, but they just don't get the respect they deserves.

Now the Friars have the rest advantage after having a bye into this round while Butler needed overtime to beat Xavier 89-82 yesterday. The Bulldogs won't have much left in the tank for the Friars today for this early start time game and quick turnaround.

The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Butler is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog. The Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Bet Providence Thursday.

15* Utah/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington PK

The Washington Huskies have been solid down the stretch in going 7-6 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are better than Utah, and they proved that with a season sweep of the Utes.  They won 74-68 on the road and 77-73 at home.

Teams that win both regular season meetings go on to win the 3rd meeting in the conference tournament at a very high clip.  The Huskies face a Utes team that is just 3-15 SU & 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The Huskies should be favored here by several points, so we are getting a discount on them at PK.

Utah is 0-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Washington is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Huskies are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  Take Washington Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and need to make a run in the ACC Tournament to get in. It starts with a win over Louisville, which they've already beaten twice by double-digits this season.

Virginia has the rest advantage here getting a bye in the second round. Louisville has no such luxury, beating Georgia Tech 84-74 in a shootout on Tuesday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers today.

The Cardinals are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as underdogs. The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The favorites is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Virginia Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona State -3.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils have quietly gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch and should be more than 3.5-point favorites against Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes a 56-65 road loss at Arizona State in the regular season finale.  This despite the Sun Devils shooting 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3-point range while the Cardinal shot 10-of-26 (38.5%).  Yet Arizona State still won by 9 points, and I believe a blowout is in store here.  Bet Arizona State Wednesday.

15* NC State/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4.5

The Clemson Tigers played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games overall with upset wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, two NCAA Tournament contenders.  They also beat Boston College by 10 on the road and Georgia Tech at home.

Now the Tigers should stay hot against an NC State team that is just ready for their season to be over.  The Wolfpack have gone 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with four straight losses by 8 points or more.  They lost by 8 to Boston College at home, by 10 to UNC at home, by 25 to Wake Forest on the road and by 13 to Florida State on the road.

Clemson won 70-65 at NC State in their lone meeting this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  NC State is 1-13 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assists this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game. NC State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These five trends combine for a 42-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State -6

It's safe to say the Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them as four of those losses came on the road and a narrow home loss to Illinois.  They also upset Purdue at home for their lone victory.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Maryland Terrapins.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three of those wins coming at home and the other being a road win at Nebraska, the worst team in the Big Ten.  Their lone loss came by 10 points at Indiana.

It's Senior Day and the Spartans are playing to assure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  We'll get a big effort from them today, and it should be enough to cover this 6-point spread against a Maryland team that knows it will need to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the big dance as the Terrapins sit at 15-15 this season.

Plays on favorites (Michigan State) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  

Note that the Spartans were 3.5-point road favorites at Maryland in their first meeting this season and are now 6-point home favorites, only a 2.5-point adjustment for home-court advantage which isn't big enough.  There's clearly value on the home team today based on recency bias.  Roll with Michigan State Sunday.

20* Loyola-Chicago/Drake MVC Championship No-Brainer on Loyola-Chicago -4.5

Loyola-Chicago has barely had to break a sweat in dismantling Bradley 66-50 and Northern Iowa 66-43 the last two days to coast into the MVC Championship Game.  They also got to play the early game yesterday and watch Drake play the late game, adding to their rest advantage.

Meanwhile, Drake is coming off a 79-78 (OT) win over Missouri State yesterday in the late game.  They just lost G D.J. Wilkins (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending injury and will be short-handed.  I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive.

That's especially the case with the Ramblers playing with double-revenge after shockingly losing both regular season meetings to the Bulldogs.  Wilkins had 26 points combined in those two victories and will be missed here.

Drake is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Drake is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games as an underdog.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  Take Loyola-Chicago Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M -2

The Texas A&M Aggies have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight wins by double-digits.  That includes an 87-71 road win at Alabama as 10-point underdogs to improve to 19-11 this season.

Now the Aggies want to continue making their case with a home win on Senior Day against the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament.  They are coming off an OT home loss to Auburn in which they blew a late lead, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat here.

Texas A&M is 12-4 at home this season while Mississippi State is just 1-8 SU in true road games with its lone win coming at lowly Missouri by 2 points.  The Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Georgetown Hoyas and their 6-23 record which includes an 0-18 mark in Big East play.  That's why it has been a great time to 'buy low' on the Hoyas here down the stretch and they have rewarded backers for doing so.

Indeed, the Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with losses at Marquette by 11, at Villanova by 8, to DePaul at home by 3, to UConn at home by 9 and at Seton Hall by 5.  Those are some of the best teams in the Big East and the Hoyas took them all to the wire.

Now the Hoyas are catching 13 points against a struggling Xavier team that is feeling the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to St. John's by 15 and 13 points, an 11-point road loss at UConn and a 16-point home loss to Seton Hall.  They have no business being this heavily favored today.

Each of the last nine meetings between Xavier and Georgetown have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 13-point spread.  TheMusketeers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -2.5

After dropping four of their last six games to fall to 23-7 this season, the Wyoming Cowboys will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs.  They really need this win to lock up their spot in the NCAA Tournament, and they'll be highly motivated to get it at home on Senior Day in front of a great crowd.

Wyoming is 13-1 at home this season and winning by 15.6 points per game.  With that home record, we are getting the Cowboys pretty cheap here given the circumstances.  They face a struggling Fresno State team that is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Air Force and New Mexico.

Wyoming is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference road loss.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Wyoming Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +10

Wichita State has no business being a double-digit favorite against East Carolina Saturday.  The Shockers have just one win in their last 14 games by more than 10 points.  They sit at 15-12 this season and simply want to get onto the AAC Tournament and won't be that motivated to put away the Pirates by margin.

East Carolina is playing some of its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Pirates have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset road wins over both Tulsa and South Florida and a 3-point loss at UCF as 9-point dogs in their three road games during this stretch.

East Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Wichita State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +8

Louisiana Tech is simply catching too many points today against the UAB Blazers.  The Bulldogs are 21-8 this season with just two losses by double-digits.  They don't lose by margin often, and they won't be losing by margin Saturday.

The Bulldogs want revenge from a 76-83 home loss to UAB in which the Blazers went 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bulldogs just took the best team in C-USA to the wire in North Texas in a 49-56 road loss.  They can certainly hang with UAB in this spot.

Louisiana Tech is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 60 points or less in their previous game.  The Blazers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +3

Oklahoma State will serve a postseason ban this season.  They won't even be able to play in the Big 12 Tournament.  That means this will be the final game of the season for the Cowboys Saturday as they host Texas Tech.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory to close out their campaign.

Coach Mike Boynton has been impressed with his team and how they have handled themselves this season knowing they wouldn't be playing in the postseason.  And they have clearly been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch knowing their season is about over.

Oklahoma State beat Kansas State at home then lost to Baylor by 2 at home in OT.  They went on the road and went to OT against Oklahoma before falling in another heartbreaker.  I expected them to be flat against Iowa State, but they put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 53-36 road win as 4-point dogs.

Oklahoma State is a poor man's Texas Tech as they play great defense and struggle on offense at times.  I think they can beat the Red Raiders, who lost outright at TCU and struggled to beat Kansas State at home in their last two games.  The Red Raiders aren't going to win the Big 12 so they don't have a lot to play in this regular season finale.

Oklahoma State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -3

The Virginia Cavaliers are trying to make the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch and into the ACC Tournament.  This is a must-win game for them against the Louisville Cardinals after losing back-to-back heartbreakers against Duke by 4 and Florida State by 1 at the buzzer.

But the Cavaliers have now had a week off having last played on February 26th.  They will be rested and ready to go and fully focused and prepared to take down this struggling Louisville team on Saturday.

The Cardinals are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone win coming at home against Clemson.  They appear to have quit in their last two games by losing to Wake Forest by 22 and Virginia Tech by 32.  I think getting the Cavaliers as short 3-point favorites here is a gift.

Louisville is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  The Cardinals are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -1.5

The Michigan Wolverines have been just fine without Juwan Howard.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS without him as they have veteran Phil Martelli manning the sidelines, who is one of the best assistants in the country.  They beat Rutgers by 9 and Michigan State by 17 while also losing to Illinois.

Now the Wolverines have put themselves back in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They still need this game against Iowa like blood, and I fully expect them to get it tonight.  It will be Senior Night with their final home game and a tremendous atmosphere.  Getting them laying this short number at home is a gift as they are 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are getting a lot of love right now after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule with wins over Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska (twice) and Northwestern during this stretch.  Their lone loss?  A 79-84 home loss to Michigan.  

That was a rare win for the road team as the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's also worth noting Iowa is expected to be without a key player in Patrick McCaffery (10.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) tonight, the coach's son.  He had 13 points and 5 rebounds against the Wolverines in that first meeting.  Roll with Michigan Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +16.5

The Temple Owls have been grossly undervalued in conference play this season.  They have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  That includes upset road wins over Tulsa, UCF and Cincinnati as well as upset home wins over Cincinnati and SMU.

Keep in mind the Owls also only lost at home to Houston by 5 and on the road at SMU by 8.  They are almost always competitive, and now they want revenge from that 61-66 home loss to the Cougars in their first meeting this season.  I have no doubt they can stay within 16.5 points on the road in the rematch.

I question Houston's motivation tonight after clinching the American Athletic regular season title with their win over Cincinnati on Tuesday.  They have a road game with Memphis on deck where they will want revenge, too.  Now the Cougars will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days while this will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Owls, which is a huge rest advantage.

Temple is 8-1 ATS following a home win this season.  The Owls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Temple is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Temple has just one loss by double-digits in its last 15 games and that was a 14-point loss at Memphis, making for a 15-0 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 16.5-point spread.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -4

The Iowa State Cyclones have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were getting dangerously close to the bubble after a four-game losing streak prior to these wins.  Now they will be motivated to win their final home game on Senior Night to assure their spot in the big dance.

They host a reeling Oklahoma State team that was just punched in the gut with back-to-back overtime losses to Baylor and Oklahoma.  I think there will be a hangover effect from those two defeats, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight.

The Cowboys sit at 13-15 this season and know they will not be going to the NCAA Tournament without winning the Big 12 Tournament at this point.  So I question their motivation in their final two games of the regular season.

Oklahoma State is 2-8 SU & 2-6-2 ATS in true road games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Davidson -7

The Davidson Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have a chance to clinch at least a share of the Atlantic 10 title with a win over George Mason.  It is also Senior Night as it will be their final home game.  It's going to be a great atmosphere for the Wildcats to say the least with what's at stake.

That home-court advantage will carry the Wildcats to a blowout victory over George Mason tonight.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season.  They have won four straight games by double-digits coming in, including three straight by 21 or more points.

George Mason is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall.  The Patriots are 4-10 SU in all games played away from home this season.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Davidson has won the last two by 15 and 32 points.

The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  Davidson is 7-0 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 12-1 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Davidson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 March home games.  Bet Davidson Wednesday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers want a Big Ten title.  The only way to get it is to beat Wisconsin tonight as they trail the Badgers by one game with two games to go.  Adding to their motivation is that they will be out for revenge from a 69-74 home loss to the Badgers as 12.5-point favorites in their first meeting.

So this line has been adjusted a whopping 10 points for home-court advantage with Purdue only a 2.5-point road favorite in the rematch.  That's too much, and it just shows how overvalued the Badgers are right now off four straight wins against soft competition.

Wisconsin has been extremely fortunate in close games in going 13-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  Their record is inflated because of it, and they are nowhere near as good as their record would suggest.  I think they get exposed tonight by a Purdue team that is better everywhere and motivated to boot.

The Badgers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after going under the total in their previous game.  The Boilermakers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Tuesday games.  Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on South Carolina -6.5

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 17-11 this season and making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning four of their last five games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset both LSU and Mississippi State at home.  Their lone loss came at Alabama.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 14 days today and should put forth another big effort on Senior Night.

They should handle the Missouri Tigers, who are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 19 points or more.  They have fallen to 4-12 in SEC play compared to 8-8 for South Carolina.  The Tigers appear to just be playing out the string, and I don't see them putting any extra effort into winning this game tonight.  It will be the 5th game in 12 days for the Tigers as well.

Missouri is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +12.5

You're definitely paying a tax to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at this point in the season after opening 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in Big 12 play.  It's time to 'sell high' on them tonight as they should not be laying this big of a number against Kansas State.  This is their largest favorite role of the conference season.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost three straight with two of those losses coming by a combined 4 points.  I like this Kansas State team as they are a poor man's version of Texas Tech.  They are gritty defensively and can struggle at times on offense.

We saw the Wildcats match up well with the Red Raiders in their 62-51 home win as 4.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they come back as 12.5-point road underdogs in the rematch, an 8-point adjustment that is too big for home-court advantage.

The Wildcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kansas State is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  Take Kansas State Monday.

20* Baylor/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 63-80 road loss at Baylor on February 12th two weeks ago.  Now the Longhorns get to face the Bears at home this time around where they have been a much better team.

Indeed, the Longhorns are 16-2 at home this season including a win over Kansas.  Their two losses came by a combined 7 points.  I think the wrong team is favored here given the terrible spot for the Bears and their injuries right now.

Baylor is in a letdown spot off its 80-70 home win over Kansas on Saturday.  The Bears have struggled on the road recently with losses to Alabama by 9, Kansas by 24 and Texas Tech by 10.  They also needed OT to beat Oklahoma State and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Texas is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Texas Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1

The Temple Owls have been grossly undervalued in conference play this season.  They have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  That includes 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with their only loss coming to Houston by 5 as 12.5-point dogs.  They upset Cincinnati and SMU at home during this stretch.

Now the Owls want revenge on Tulane after losing 83-92 on the road to the Green Wave on February 12th just two weeks ago.  They will have their revenge at home this tie around against a Tulane team that is 3-6 SU in true road games this season.  The Owls basically just have to win this game to cover with this small spread.

Temple is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Tulane is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  Take Temple Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on George Washington +10

George Washington has quietly gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Colonials have upset road wins over Duquesne by 21, UMass by 9 and Rhode Island by 2 during this stretch.  They should not be catching 10 points here against a George Mason team they already beat 77-76 at home back on January 17th when they weren't playing as well as they are now.

George Mason has gone the other direction, going just 2-6 SU in its last eight games overall after a hot start to the season.  The Patriots have won their two games during this stretch by just 3 and 5 points.  In fact, the Patriots haven't won any of their last 14 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Colonials pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colonials are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Roll with George Washington Sunday.

15* Boise State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +1

The UNLV Rebels are playing as well as anyone in the Mountain West right now.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset road wins over Colorado State, Fresno State and Nevada as well as another upset home win over Colorado State.

In fact, the Rebels have been outright dominant in their last three home games.  They beat Colorado State by 21, Air Force by 34 and Nevada by 11.  Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 63-69 road loss at Boise State as 8.5-point underdogs on February 11th just two weeks ago.

Boise State has been overvalued for weeks now in going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I don't think they should be favored on the road with how well UNLV is playing right now and in this revenge spot.

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Boise State attempted 22 more free throws and made 19 more than UNLV in that first meeting.  That isn't likely to happen again.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -1.5

Oregon finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and in need of wins here down the stretch to get into the big dance after digging themselves a hole early in the season.  But the Ducks have upset UCLA twice this season and could use another Top 25 win here against USC.

The Ducks go for the season sweep of the Trojans after winning 79-69 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country and that was on display against UCLA on Thursday.  It will be a packed house in Eugene for Senior Night and with what's at stake, providing an excellent atmosphere for another big effort from the Ducks.

This is a bad spot for USC.  The Trojans will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days after needing double-OT to survive a 94-91 win at Oregon State as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday.  Five players played at least 37 minutes for the Trojans in that contest.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ducks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and struggling here down the stretch.  I trust Dana Altman and the Ducks in this must-win game on Senior Night.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

25* Conference USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Middle Tennessee -2.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 14-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 13 of those 14 wins have come by 9 points or more.

We are definitely getting the Blue Raiders at a discount as only 2.5-point home favorites over Western Kentucky today.  This is Senior Day, so they will not only be motivated for their seniors, but they want to cap off a perfect 15-0 season at home in the worst way.  You can bet their fans will be raucous for this one as they want to see it too and it will be a tremendous atmosphere.

Western Kentucky is getting too much love after winning seven straight coming in against the worst of Conference USA in Charlotte (twice), Old Dominion (twice), FAU, UTEP and UTSA.  Each of their last five wins came by 10 points or fewer, too.  Now they take a big step up in class here against a Middle Tennessee team that already beat them 93-85 on the road in their first meeting this season.  That was their last defeat.

Western Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Middle Tennessee is 11-2-2 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Blue Raiders are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +2

Northern Iowa wants revenge from its worst loss of the season 58-85 at Loyola-Chicago on February 13th.  The Ramblers shot 64.8% from the field in that game including 14-of-26 from 3-point range as there was nothing the Panthers could do.  It was simply Loyola-Chicago's day.

But I like their chances at revenge here considering the Panthers are 7-1 SU at home this season in conference play with their lone loss coming to Drake in overtime.  That's the same Drake team that has beaten Loyola-Chicago twice this season as well.  Northern Iowa's last four home games were very impressive as they went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while beating Illinois State by 15, Bradley by 13, Southern Illinois by 9 and Missouri State by 20.

Loyola-Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  They failed to cover in narrow wins over Valparaiso (by 2) and Illinois State, lost outright at Bradley and at Drake, and also failed to cover at Southern Illinois in a 5-point win.  Home-court advantage has been huge for the top teams in the MVC and that is the case with these two squads.  It's also Senior Day for the Panthers, and first place is on the line in the MVC as the winner takes all the marbles.

The Ramblers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +4

I love the spot for the Washington Huskies tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 70-78 road loss at Washington State as 10-point underdogs on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here three days later and come back as 4-point home underdogs in the rematch.

This is a game I fully expect the Huskies to win outright.  They nearly upset the Cougars on the road as that game was closer than the final score would indicate.  There's a decent chance the Huskies get Emmitt Matthews Jr. back from a concussion for this one as well.

Washington has been much better at home than on the road this season.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in Pac-12 home games.  Their lone loss came to Arizona, which is one of the best teams in the country.  They have handled the teams on their level, and the Cougars are definitely on their level.

Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT's per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Huskies are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Washington Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +11

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 17-10 this season and making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning each of their last four games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset both LSU and Mississippi State at home.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 11 days today and should put forth another big effort.

It should be good enough to cover this inflated 11-point spread against the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The Crimson Tide are 18-10 this season with just one more win than the Gamecocks.  They have been grossly overvalued all season and continue to be here as double-digits favorites.

Alabama is 3-16-1 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  In fact, they have won just two of their last 21 games by more than 10 points, and those were 13 and 14-point wins.  They aren't blowing teams out, and they won't be putting away South Carolina by double-digits with how well the Gamecocks are playing right now.  Alabama is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -3.5

Home-court advantage has been huge in the SEC this season among the top teams.  That's why Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite over #3 Auburn today, and I think it's warranted.  The Volunteers are 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game.  That includes a 13-point win over Kentucky in their last home game.

Auburn has been vulnerable on the road recently.  The Tigers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The two wins both were concerning as they beat Missouri 55-54 as a 12.5-point favorite and Georgia 74-72 as a 16-point favorite.  They also lost outright as favorites at Arkansas and at Florida.

Auburn is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine February road games.  Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Volunteers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Tigers.  The home team is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas CBS No-Brainer on Arkansas -2

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the hottest teams in the country.  They are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama by a single point, 67-68.  They have beaten Tennessee and Auburn at home recently and now they'll take down Kentucky Saturday.

The Wildcats have lost to both of those teams that Arkansas beat at home on the road.  The Wildcats lost 71-80 at Auburn and 63-76 at Tennessee recently.  It will be a raucous atmosphere in Fayetteville for this one, and I think we are getting the Razorbacks at a discount as only 2-point home favorites with how well they are playing right now.

Kentucky could be without their top two guards in Tyty Washington Jr. (12.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Sahvir Wheeler (9.6 PPG, 7.1 APG).  That's bad news facing a guard-oriented Arkansas lineup.  Eric Musselman has the Razorbacks playing their best basketball of the season once again late in the year.  

The Razorbacks are 15-1 at home this season.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games attempting 10 or more FT than their opponents.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia +10

The Florida Gators have no business being double-digit road favorites at Georgia in this sneaky rivalry.  The Gators are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and not playing well at all.  In fact, the Gators have won just one of their last 16 games by double-digits, making for a 15-1 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Georgia only lost 72-63 at Florida as 14.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, which isn't a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage.  Plus, Georgia has only lost one of its last nine meetings with Florida by more than 10 points.

The Gators are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Georgia is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  There is a ton of value on the Bulldogs today.  Take Georgia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +22

San Jose State has gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The betting public has wanted nothing to do with this team because they have the worst record in the Mountain West.  But they have been competitive, especially when playing on the road this season.

Indeed, the Spartans are 8-4 ATS in true road games this season.  They have only lost one road game by more than 20 points this season and that was at Texas early in the year.  Ten of their 12 road losses have come by 16 points or less, including by 14 at Stanford, by 15 at Wyoming, by 8 at UNLV, by 16 at Utah State, by 16 at Boise State and by 9 at Nevada.

The Spartans already proved they could play with San Diego State at home, losing 62-72 as 16.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 22 points in the rematch on the road, which is too much.  This is a terrible spot for the Aztecs coming off a 1-point loss to Boise State and with Wyoming on deck.  This is a flat spot for them if I've ever seen one.

The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  San Jose State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  San Diego State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +3.5

The Oregon Ducks need wins to make the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch.  They sit at 17-10 this season and have lost three of their last four.  But one of those was an impressive 81-84 loss at Arizona as 13-point dogs last time out.

Now the Ducks will be looking to sweep the season series with UCLA after upsetting them 84-81 as 9.5-point road dogs in their first meeting on January 13th.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and it will be a packed house in Eugene with No. 12 UCLA coming to town.

The Bruins have faltered on the road recently in going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming at Stanford 79-70.  They were upset by both USC and Arizona State on the road and lost to Arizona by 10.  They are overvalued right now after three straight wins and covers at home coming in.

The Bruins are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games as road favorites.  UCLA is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 conference road games.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings with both road wins coming in overtime.  Roll with Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -6.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 13-0 SU & 8-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 12 of those 13 wins have come by 9 points or more.  So we are getting a discount with the Blue Raiders as only 6.5-point home favorites tonight.

Marshall has been a big disappointment this season at 11-17 SU & 7-17-2 ATS in 28 games.  The Thundering Herd are 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season.  They are also 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS in conference play.  They stand little chance of even keeping this game competitive tonight.

Marshall is 1-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  Middle Tennessee is 16-3 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Marshall is 1-9 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Blue Raiders are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Middle Tennessee Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +12

The Temple Owls have been flying under the radar since getting into conference play.  The Owls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games with upset wins over SMU, Cincinnati (twice) and UCF.  They also took Houston to the wire in a 5-point loss.

The Owls are clearly catching too many points tonight against the Memphis Tigers, who are getting a lot of respect now after winning six straight and covering five of those prior to their 57-73 upset road loss at SMU.  They were favored on the road at SMU and shouldn't have been, and now they are laying double-digits to an undervalued Temple team and shouldn't be.

The head-to-head history suggests this is too many points, too.  Amazingly, 14 of the last 15 meetings between Temple and Memphis have been decided by 12 points or fewer with the lone exception being a 14-point win.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 12-point spread.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a good team that wins between 60% and 80% of its games.  The Owls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as road underdogs of 9.5 to 12 points.  Temple is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take Temple Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +10.5

This is a massive sandwich spot for the SMU Mustangs.  They are coming off an upset home win over Memphis and have a road game at Houston on deck.  I don't expect their best effort tonight, and that will make it hard for them to cover this 10.5-point spread without their 'A' game.

SMU already beat Tulsa 74-69 on the road as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  That places the Golden Hurricane in revenge mode tonight.  I like how Tulsa has been playing of late with its last seven games all decided by 10 points or fewer.  That includes an upset win over Cincinnati and a road win at South Florida in two of their last three games.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  SMU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as home favorites.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in thier last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. good teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  Take Tulsa Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been undervalued all season.  They are 21-7 right now with a lot to play for trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  Expect a big effort from them tonight as they travel to face the Clemson Tigers.

Clemson is simply broken.  The Tigers have gone 0-6 SU in their last six games overall to fall to 4-12 in ACC play.  They are playing for nothing but pride down the stretch, and they aren't doing a very good job of it.

Clemson is coming off a 61-70 loss to a bad Louisville team last time out.  It hurt losing their best player in PJ Hall in the opening minutes to a foot injury.  Hall (15.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is now questionable to play tonight and it would be hard to see him healthy enough to go.

Wake Forest is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Wednesday road games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Tigers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on South Carolina +2.5

Frank Martin has yet another team playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Don't look now but the Gamecocks are 16-10 this season and make a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.

The Gamecocks have been very impressive in winning each of their last three games.  They beat both Georgia and Ole Miss on the road and upset LSU at home.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 8 days today and should put forth another big effort as they look to get revenge from a 64-78 road loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting.

South Carolina is 10-4 SU at home this season.  They face a Mississippi State team that has really struggled on the road.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU in true road games this season with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the SEC in Missouri by 2 points.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a close conference win by 3 points or less.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with South Carolina Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +12.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New Mexico Lobos.  They have been blown out in their last two games with a 15-point home loss to Colorado State and a 16-point road loss at San Jose State to give the Spartans their first conference win of the season.  

Off that embarrassing defeat, I expect the Lobos to fire back with a big effort here against the Utah State Aggies.  The Lobos were playing very well prior to those couple games in going 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight games.  The upset Wyoming at home and only lost to Colorado State, Wyoming, Fresno State and Boise State all by 8 points or fewer.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from an 87-90 home loss to Utah State as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They face an Aggies team playing their worst basketball of the season right now.  Utah State is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with three losses by double-digits.  They should not be double-digit favorites here with how they are playing right now.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Utah State is 1-7 ATS following a conference loss this season.  The Lobos are 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  New Mexico is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (New Mexico) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite when playing on Tuesday nights are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1997.  The value is too good to pass up on the Lobos off that loss to San Jose State and with revenge in mind.  Bet New Mexico Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They are coming off two blowout losses to Iowa and Maryland following their first conference victory of the season.  They had gone 5-1 ATS in their previous six games and were playing well.

I expect a big effort from the Huskers tonight as they have revenge in mind from a 63-87 home loss to Northwestern on February 5th just over two weeks ago.  The Wildcats shot 13-of-31 (41.9%) from 3-point range in that game and had a great shooting night.

I just can't see the Wildcats coming back motivated enough to beat Nebraska by 12-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated number.  They have lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota coming in.  And they were 3.5-point favorites in that first meeting and are 11.5-point favorites in the rematch.  This 8-point adjustment for home-court advantage is too much.

Northwestern is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following two or more consecutive losses.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Nebraska is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Wildcats are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Tuesday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Hoosiers tonight.  They are going through their worst stretch of the season in going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with home losses to Illinois and Wisconsin as well as road losses to Michigan State and Northwestern.

It's safe to say the Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  It's also safe to say they will be rested and ready to go as they haven't played a game since Tuesday, so they have had the last five days off.  Look for a big effort from Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers face an Ohio State team they already beat 67-51 as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now they come back as 7.5-point underdogs in the rematch, an 11-point adjustment that isn't warranted.  That's especially the case considering Ohio State just lost 62-75 at home to Iowa as a 5-point favorite on Saturday and now has just one day to get ready for Indiana.  The rest and preparation advantage for the Hoosiers is massive here.  Take Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been impressive here down the stretch.  They are just 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with two losses by 2 points or fewer.  They lost by 2 at Wisconsin and by 1 at home to Michigan.  They also upset both Iowa and Michigan State at home.

The wrong team is favored here in my opinion as Maryland is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall with its lone victory coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Nebraska.  The Terrapins are 7-8 SU & 4-11 ATS at home this season and 4-11 SU in Big Ten play.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Maryland.  The Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Penn State Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee State -5.5

Middle Tennessee has been grossly undervalued.  The Blue Raiders are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the top two teams in the conference in North Texas and UAB.

Middle Tennessee has been dominant at home, going 12-0 SU & 7-2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points per game on the season.  Amazingly, 11 of those 12 wins have come by 9 points or more.  So we are getting a discount with the Blue Raiders as only 5.5-point home favorites tonight.

UTEP is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after going 8-2 SU in its last 10 games overall.  But they lost at North Texas by 8 and at home to Marshall by 9.  They did have a good win at LA Tech, but they have been very fortunate in close games during this stretch with six of their eight wins by single-digits.

The Blue Raiders are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Middle Tennessee is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 home games.  They'll be motivated to keep this unbeaten home record intact tonight and make easy work of the Miners.  Bet Middle Tennessee Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +9.5

This is a flat spot for the UCF Knights.  They are coming off a 52-70 road loss at Houston on Thursday in which they were hanging tough in the 2H before a big surge by the Cougars late to win and cover.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face ECU as they were to face the top team in the AAC in Houston.

That's especially the case after already beating East Carolina 92-85 on the road as 3-point favorites.  They come back as 9.5-point home favorites which is too much.  The Knights aren't going to shoot 15-of-30 (50%) from 3-point range like they did in that first meeting, yet they still only won by 7 points.

East Carolina has pulled outright upsets in its last two road games.  The Pirates won 73-71 as 7-point dogs at Tulsa and 65-57 as 1.5-point dogs at South Florida.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less as well.  Take East Carolina Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -1.5

Northern Iowa is 6-1 at home in MVC play this season with its lone loss coming to Drake in overtime.  The Panthers have one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.  They already beat Missouri State 85-84 on the road, and now they host the Bears as only 1.5-point favorites today.

I just think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams and home-court advantage for the Panthers is going to make all the difference today.  Northern Iowa is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Missouri State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -2.5

The Stanford Cardinal blew a big lead on Thursday at home to Utah and lost 56-60.  They didn't score a FG for over nine minutes in a stretch that spanned the final 10 minutes of the game.  They will be pissed off, and I look for them to take it out on the Colorado Buffaloes tonight.

The Cardinal also want revenge from a 76-80 road loss at Colorado in their first meeting this season.  They are 10-4 at home this season and have a very good home-court advantage.  Colorado is much better at home than it is on the road and that has been the case for years for the Buffaloes.

Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Buffaloes are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games following three or more consecutive SU wins.  Colorado is 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Buffaloes are 25-54-1 ATS in their last 80 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Take Stanford Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +17.5

The Washington Huskies are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the Pac-12 right now.  They are 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They hung with USC on the road in a 10-point loss on Thursday, and they should not be catching 17.5 points at UCLA here Saturday.

The Bruins recently lost to USC on the road prior to crushing Washington State 76-56 at home on Thursday.  They are getting too much respect now for that win over the Cougars as they were 9.5-point favorites in that game and are now 17.5-point favorites here.  I'd probably favor Washington over Washington State at this point with how poorly the Cougars have been playing of late.

Washington has been a thorn in UCLA's side in recent meetings not once losing by more than 10 points in the last five meetings.  The Huskies only lost by 5 as 14.5-point road underdogs and by 3 as 9.5-point home underdogs in their two meetings last year.  And the Huskies are much improved this season.

Washington is 8-2 ATS following a loss this season.  The Huskies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a road loss.  Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss overall.  Roll with Washington Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming 67-68 at Alabama as 5-point dogs.  That includes an upset home win over Auburn to hand the Tigers their only SEC loss this season in their last home game.

Arkansas has one of the best home-court advantages in the country at 14-1 at home this season while winning outscoring opponents 15.4 points per game.  They host a Tennessee team that has been shaky on the road in conference play with three road losses to Alabama (by 5), LSU (by 12), Kentucky (by 28).

Speaking of Kentucky, the Volunteers got their revenge on the Wildcats earlier this week with a 76-63 victory at home.  That sets them up for a prime letdown spot here as they travel to face Arkansas.  They won't bring the same intensity to this game as they brought against Kentucky at home last time out.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Tennessee.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Davidson -2

The Davidson Wildcats are 21-4 this season and 10-1 at home.  They should be more than 2-point home favorites against the Saint Louis Billikens, who come in getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after their blowout home win over La Salle last time out.

Davidson is the fresher team coming in on four days' rest while Saint Louis only has two days' rest and will be playing its 3rd game in 6 days.  The Billikens lost two meetings with St. Bonaventure in their previous two games prior to that win over La Salle.

Davidson has failed to cover the spread in four straight and seven of its last eight, so this is actually a 'buy low' spot on the Wildcats due to this stretch.  They are winning games but not winning by margin, which works just fine here as only 2-point favorites.

Davidson is 9-1 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Saint Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Davidson Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1.5

I like the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones today.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And they will be out for revenge after blowing a double-digit lead in the 2nd half at Oklahoma in their first meeting this season.

They face a struggling Oklahoma team that is just 2-9 SU in their last 11 games overall.  The Sooners are coming off an overtime home loss to Texas after losing at Kansas.  They won't be nearly as motivated to try and beat Iowa State as they were those two teams in two heartbreaking losses that will be tough to get back up off the mat from.

The Cyclones anded a four-game losing streak against a brutal schedule with a hard-fought 54-51 win at TCU last time out.  That victory gave them a lot of confidence and stopped the bleeding.  They will have great support from their fans at home today as they close in on making the NCAA Tournament after winning just two games last year.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Iowa State is 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Oklahoma.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.