20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road to Virginia Tech.  They have wins over Mississippi State (by 11), Purdue (by 11), Maryland (by 16) and Alabama (by 8) so they have played a very tough schedule as well.

The Florida State Seminoles lost their three best players to the NBA or graduation from last year's team.  They have still opened 5-1 and are talented, but their 12-point loss to UCF is a concern two games back.  And they didn't come close to covering as a 20-point favorite in a 13-point win over Gardner Webb last time out.  This team is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half of last game.  The Tigers are the best defensive team in the ACC, giving up just 53.4 points per game and 37% shooting this season.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri State +3.5

I cashed in Missouri State as a 6.5-point underdog against Northern Iowa in their 79-59 win.  I said they should not be underdogs in this game and believe they should not be underdogs in the rematch either.  So I'm back on them as 3.5-point dogs again today.

The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 0-5 ATS this season.  They just lost their best player in A.J. Green, who averaged 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG in his three games this season.  Green averaged 19.7 PPG last year and is now out for the season.  Plus, the Panthers hadn't played since December 9th, so they are rusty right now.

Missouri State is off to a 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They crushed Northwestern State 94-67 as a 10.5-point favorite.  Then they upset a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that returned all five starters from last year 85-77 as 1.5-point dogs.  And add in that 79-59 win as 6.5-point dogs to Northern Iowa yesterday.

The Bears are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Missouri State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Northern Iowa 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Missouri State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 60 points or fewer in their previous game.  Roll with Missouri State Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Evansville +9

The Evansville Purple Aces get another shot at Southern Illinois tonight.  They lost 57-63 as 8.5-point dogs yesterday.  Now they are 9-point dogs to the Salukis in the rematch.  This makes no sense as the Purple Aces will be the more motivated team, while the Salukis will relax after just beating them.

Plus Southern Illinois is overvalued as it is due to an unbeaten 7-0 record against an extremely soft schedule.  Their seven wins have come against SE Missouri State, Quincy, Murray State, North Dakota (twice), Butler and Evansville.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have now been decided by 7 points or less.  The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Purple Aces are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Evansville Monday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State +6.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  They should not be 6.5-point favorites over the Missouri State Bears in this Missouri Valley Conference matchup.

The Panthers are 1-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They just lost their best player in A.J. Green, who averages 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG in his three games this season.  Green averaged 19.7 PPG last year and is now out for the season.  Plus, the Panthers haven't played since December 9th, so they will be rusty.

Missouri State is off to a 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They crushed Northwestern State 94-67 as a 10.5-point favorite.  Last time out they upset a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that returned all five starters from last year 85-77 as 1.5-point dogs.

The Bears are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Missouri State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Northern Iowa 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bears are 11-2 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  Missouri State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  Bet Missouri State Sunday.

15* Virginia/Gonzaga CBS ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +8.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are exactly the type of team that can slow down the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They have been among the best defensive teams in the country under Tony Bennett for years.  And that's the case again this season as they give up just 54.0 points per game and 36.3% shooting.

I like the fact that Virginia returned from its 17-day absence from COVID problems and looked very sharp in a 76-40 win as 23.5-point favorites over William & Mary on December 22nd.  And now they are highly motivated to try and knock off the No. 1 team in the country in Gonzaga.  Getting 8.5 points with a team the caliber of Virginia is an absolute Christmas gift.

The Cavaliers are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games as underdogs.  Virginia is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Cavaliers and 'sell high' on the Bulldogs today.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* Rutgers/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) responded from a loss to Purdue in their Big Ten opener with a 77-70 win over a very good UCLA team on Saturday.  They got leading rebounder E.J. Liddell back from a two-game absence due to mononucleosis and should be closer to full strength for this game now as the Buckeyes are highly motivated for their first conference victory.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on unbeaten Rutgers (6-0) tonight.  The Scarlet Knights have opened 2-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Maryland and Illinois after a soft early schedule.  But they just lost starting center Clifford Omoruyi to an injury in the win over Illinois and his loss will be feld here against Liddell and Ohio State.

Ohio State is 8-2 SU against Rutgers as Big Ten members, including 5-0 SU at home.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games off an ATS win.  Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games.  The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +12

North Dakota State's 2-5 record has the Bison undervalued.  But they are in the midst of their toughest nonconference slate in school history having already traveled to No. 11 Creighton, No. 7 Kansas and Nebraska.  They are battle-tested and ready to go.

Keep in mind the Bison covered in road losses to Creighton (58-69) as 23.5-point dogs and Kansas (61-65) as 24-point dogs.  They also only lost to a very good South Dakota State team 75-77 as 7.5-point dogs.  They have proven they can hang with those teams, so they definitely can hang with TCU here.

This is a good 'sell high' spot on TCU.  The Horned Frogs are coming off two straight wins and covered over Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.  Now they step back outside of Big 12 play here and won't be nearly as motivated for face NDSU as they were Oklahoma State last time out.  This is a TCU team that only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 earlier this season.  They aren't good enough to get margin on this underrated NDSU team tonight.

North Dakota State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS loss.  TCU is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.  Take North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -5

The East Carolina Pirates returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the American Athletic Conference.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to SMU, which is 5-0 this season.

Last year ECU crushed Tulane in both meetings with an 81-62 win at home and an 81-67 win on the road.  With the Pirates having all five starters back, it should be more of the same here against a Tulane team that returned just one starter.

Tulane is getting too much respect here for its 5-1 start this season.  The loss came to Memphis, and the five wins were against awful competition in Lamar, Lipscomb, Southern Miss, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Grambling.  They will meet their match here in the Pirates with this big step up in class.

The Green Wave are 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  This will be their first road game all season as well as their first six games have all been at home.  East Carolina has played two tough road games at Charlotte and SMU.  They are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 13.4 points per game.  Roll with East Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -9

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most talented teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year and added some real talent for Penny Hardaway.  But they are off to a disappointing 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS start this season, and I think this is a good opportunity to 'buy low' on them as a single-digit favorite here against Tulsa.

The three losses came to WKU, VCU and Auburn.  They have also beaten Tulane and St. Mary's.  So Memphis has played a pretty tough schedule and is battle-tested now.  This team is only going to get better as the season goes on as they develop chemistry with all this talent.

Tulsa is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS with its only two wins coming against UT-Arlington and Northwestern State.  They lost to TCU, Wichita State and South Carolina.  Memphis will be the best team that they have played yet and it's not really even close.

Memphis is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Tulsa with 11 of those wins coming by 9 points or more.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games off a road win.  Take Memphis Monday.

15* Saint Louis/Minnesota CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Saint Louis -2

The Saint Louis Billikens have now won 11 straight games dating back to last season.  They are loaded this year with five returning starters for head coach Travis Ford.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

The Billikens have opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS this season with four wins by 19 points or more, an 11-point win over NC State and a 4-point win over LSU.  So it's not like they have feasted on a soft schedule.  They are shooting 52.7% as a team and giving up just 40.3% shooting, winning their six games by an average of 24.4 PPG.

Minnesota opened 6-0 against an extremely soft schedule with wins over Green Bay, Loyola-Marymount (twice), North Dakota, Kansas City and Boston College.  They needed overtime to beat BC.  Then they finally stepped up in class and got blasted 65-92 at Illinois last time out.  And now they have a game on deck against a Top 5 Iowa team.  This is a sandwich spot for them as they jump out of conference play sandwiched between two huge Big Ten games against ranked opponents.  I don't expect them to handle it well.

The Billikens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Saint Louis is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gophers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  Minnesota is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Saint Louis Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) off their first loss of the season.  They blew an 8-point lead in the final two minutes and lost 76-77 to TCU as a 5-point favorite.  This is a team that went on the road and beat Marquette earlier this season and they are still one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Look for them to bounce back with a big effort here against Texas.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Texas, which has won its last two games in blowout fashion over Texas State and Sam Houston State.  The Longhorns have two wins by a combined 4 points this season plus a loss to Villanova.  They are being asked to get margin here against an Oklahoma State team they are very comparable to talent-wise.

Oklahoma State went on the road last year and crushed Texas 81-59 as a 4-point underdog.  Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after having won five or six of its last seven games coming in.  The Longhorns are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on CS-Northridge +12

Northridge has really impressed me this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1 ATS with their only losses coming by 5 to Air Force and by 11 to Stanford as a 16-point dog.  They upset Pepperdine as a 15.5-point dog and also upset Seattle as a 2-point dog.  They can hang with this rebuilding California team today.

California played that same Pepperdine team and lost 62-74 to them to give these teams a common opponent.  The Golden Bears are now just 3-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season with their only wins coming against Northwest College, Nicholls State and San Francisco.

Northridge is 11-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  California is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off two consecutive non-conference games.  The Matadors are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games overall, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight.  Take CS-Northridge Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +5

Western Kentucky is loaded this season with five returning starters.  They are one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country.  They are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to West Virginia and Louisville.  They also upset Memphis while beating both Rhode Island and Northern Iowa.  They have been battle-tested and Alabama will only be the third-best team they have played this season.

Alabama was very fortunate to beat Furman as a 6-point favorite.  They didn't lead in that game until there was under a minute remaining.  They won 83-80 as a 6-point favorite.  The Crimson Tide are now 4-2 this season with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Clemson.  They are once again being overvalued here as 5-point favorites over a Hilltoppers team that will likely win this game outright.

Alabama is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Hilltoppers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road dogs.  The Crimson Tide are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Iowa CBS No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They prove it once again Saturday with an upset win over the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs.  This is an Iowa team that returned all five starters, and that experience is showing early in the season.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming on a banked 3-pointer from half court at the buzzer against Southern.  They beat North Carolina by 13 and Iowa State by 28.  They have the best big man in the country in Luka Garza, and he is surrounded by four shooters at all times as the Hawkeyes are averaging 12 made 3-pointers per game and shooting them at a 39.8% clip as a team.

Gonzaga hasn't played since an 87-82 win over West Virginia as an 8.5-point favorite on December 2nd.  That's the same WVU team that nearly lost outright to Iowa State last night, which is the same Iowa State team that Iowa beat by 28.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few says his team practiced on Thursday for the first time since its COVID-19 pause on December 4th.  He is very concerned about their conditioning and their ability to execute against Iowa.

"I can tell you in the 22 years I've been coaching this is probably the biggest challenge I've faced as a head coach," Few said.  To even use the term 'monumental challenge' would be doing it a disservice.  Then there is the factor of a game plan for one of the top offenses in college basketball and the best scorer in college basketball."

Iowa is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after committing 11 or fewer turnings in two straight games.  The Hawkeyes are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Iowa is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +6.5

Montana State is 2-1 this season.  The Bobcats pulled the 91-78 win at UNLV as 12.5-point dogs in their opener.  Then they played a very good Pacific team and only lost 70-74 (OT) as 4.5-point dogs.  And they crushed overmatched Yellowstone 114-74 in their most recent outing.

The Bobcats are one of the better offensive teams in the country.  They are scoring 91.7 points per game on 51.1% shooting overall and 44.1% shooting from 3-point range.  Defensively, they have held opponents to just 38.4% shooting overall as well.

Washington State is a fraudulent 5-0 against a very soft schedule.  All of their wins have come down to the wire as they are 5-0 with an average margin of victory of only 4.6 points per game.  They only beat Texas Southern 56-52 as a 12-point favorite, Eastern Washington 71-68 as a 5.5-point favorite, Idaho 61-58 as an 18.5-point favorite and Portland State 69-60 as a 9-point favorite.  Four of their five wins have come by 4 points or less.

Montana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a road game.  Washington State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games off five or more consecutive wins.  The Cougars are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Take Montana State Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -1.5

Richmond returned all five starters this season from a team that went 24-7 last year.  They are a team I have been backing with regularity, and they are certainly worth a bet today as only 1.5-point favorites over Loyola-Chicago.

There is a big strength of schedule disparity here.  Richmond has played the 67th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are 5-1 with their only loss coming to a Top 10 West Virginia team whose only loss came to Gonzaga.  They have wins and covers over Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Vanderbilt as well.

Loyola-Chicago is also an experienced team that returns all five starters.  But they are just 3-1 with their three wins coming against Lewis, Chicago State and Illinois-Chicago.  Their loss came 63-77 to Wisconsin as they were way overmatched by the Badgers.  The Ramblers have played the 215th-toughest schedule in the country, almost 150 spots lower than Richmond.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after playing a road game.  The Ramblers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-25-1 ATS in its last 35 Friday games.  Roll with Richmond Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -7

The Oregon Ducks are loaded with talent yet again this season for head coach Dana Altman.  But they didn't get to play a game until December 2nd due to COVID.  And they lost 75-83 to Missouri in their opener because of it.  That's a Missouri team that is one of the most underrated in the country as they just beat Illinois too.  And that loss has the Ducks undervalued.

Oregon has gone 4-0 since with a 13-point win over a very good Seton Hall team.  And now they have had four days off to get ready for San Francisco here.  Altman is not happy about how poorly his team has shot the ball, and a lot of that has been due to the rust and the focus on Final exams.

"We've got good 3-point shooters.  I'm not saying great, but we've got good ones and they're going to have to put some time in," he said. "There's no excuse not to be in the gym.  I can't force them, but they've got to get in there on their own and get some shots up and get ready to shoot the ball."

San Francisco has been overrated since defeating then-No. 4 Virginia 61-60 on NOvember 27th.  They went 13-for-28 from 3-point range in that game to pull off the upset.  Keep in mind this is the same San Francisco team that lost outright to UMass-Lowell as a 14-point favorite, were beating by 13 by Rhode Island and were upset by California.  This will be their toughest test yet against Oregon.

The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  Oregon is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive gams.  Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Dons are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss.  The Ducks are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games overall.  The Ducks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Take Oregon Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTEP +13.5

The UTEP Miners started 2-0 this season before facing a gauntlet with games against St. Mary's and Arizona.  But they held their own in those two games, covering in a 61-73 loss at St. Mary's as 12.5-point dogs and covering in a 61-69 loss at Arizona as 15.5-point dogs.  Now I expect them to stay within 13.5 points of overrated Arizona State here.

"We kept battling and we weren't going anywhere," UTEP coach Rodney Terry said of the effort against Arizona. "I love my team; this team's going to be really good.  We're learning some tough lessons right now through playing some really good competition."

UTEP's Souley BOum scored 16 against Arizona after reaching 20-plus points in each of his first three games.  Boum is averaging 23.5 points this season, knows how to get to the basket, has a penchant for drawing fouls and has hit on 13-of-24 (54.2%) 3-pointers this season.

This is as much of a fade of Arizona State as it is a play on UTEP, though.  The Sun Devils came into the season ranked 18th in the country.  They lost to Villanova by 9 and San Diego State by 12.  They are 4-2 this season with just one win by more than 8 points, and that was a 23-point win as a 37-point favorite against Houston Baptist.  

The Sun Devils needed a last-second 3-pointer just to beat Grand Canyon 71-70 on Sunday as an 8-point favorite.  They only beat Cal by 8 and failed to cover in a 6-point win over Rhode Island.  They aren now just 1-5 ATS this season and have been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They get outrebounded by 6.2 boards per game and play shaky defense, allowing 76.7 points per game and 45.1% shooting.

The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Sun Devils are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Arizona State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, including 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  Bet UTEP Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +8

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have their most talented team of the Josh Pastner era.  He has almost everyone back from a team that caught fire in February.  Senior PG Jose Alvarado, junior wing Michael Devoe and Moses Wright are among four returning starters for the Yellow Jackets this year.

The Yellow Jackets are undervalued now after upset losses to Georgia State and Mercer in their first two games.  They have since bounced back with an upset win over Kentucky 79-62 as a 6.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Nebraska 75-64 as a 1.5-point favorite.  They forced a combined 37 turnovers in those two games while only committing 15 miscues themselves.

"This is us," Alvarado said.  "This is Georgia Tech from now on.  I'll be shocked if we stop playing like this.  We've got to keep improving because we are a really good team."

Wright (21.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG) and Alvarado (17.8 PPG, 4.0 APG) lead five players all scoring 11 points per game or more.  They also have Parham (13.0 PPG), Devoe (12.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Usher (11.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) making significant contributions.

This is a young, rebuilding FSU team that lost PG Trent Forrest, plus guards Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell, who were picked four and 11th in the 2020 NBA Draft, respectively.  That’s a lot to replace for head coach Leonard Hamilton.

But the Seminoles are overvalued now after a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start.  They beat North Florida, which is 1-7 this season.   They survived Indiana 69-67 as a 3-point home favorite.  Then on Saturday they beat rival Florida 83-71 at home.  Now this is a letdown spot for them, and they only have two days to get ready for Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets have five days to get ready after last playing on Wednesday.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Yellow Jackets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The underdog is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Chicago +9.5

Loyola-Chicago is the best team in the Missouri Valley this season and it's really not even close.  They returned five starters and 91.7% of their minutes from a team that went 21-11 last year.  Senior Cameron Krutwig is back after doing it all for the Ramblers last year, averaging 15.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.2 SPG.  

He is joined by fellow seniors Lucas Williamson, Tate Hall and Keith Clemons.  Clemons and Hall combined to make 44% of their 3-pointers last year.  Marquise Kennedy is also a 3-point sniper and returns.  The additions of Cooper Kaifes and Braden Norris gives them great depth.  Kaifes shot 36.5% from 3-point range in 2018-19 before sitting out last year.  Norris made 48.6% of his 3-point shots in 2018-19 before transferring from Oakland.

The Ramblers are off to a 3-0 start this season and winning by 25.3 points per game.  They are shooting 54.9% as a team, including 41.3% from 3-point range, and averaging 80.3 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 55.0 points per game, 37.9% shooting and 26.9% from 3-point range.

Wisconsin got a lot of hype coming into the season with four starters back.  But they have failed to meet expectations.  They are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS.  They lost outright to Marquette as a 3.5-point favorite, and their four wins have come against Eastern Illinois, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Rhode Island.  They only beat Eastern Illinois by 10 as a 22-point favorite and Rhode Island by 11 as an 11-point favorite.  Loyola-Chicago might be the best team they have faced yet.

Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game.  The Ramblers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs.  Take Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 5-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue, by 11 over Mississippi State, by 16 over Maryland and by 8 over Alabama.

As you can see, the Tigers have faced a brutal schedule and have gotten through it unblemished.  They have done so behind one of the best defenses in the nation.  The Tigers are allowing just 51.4 points per game, holding opponents to 34.9% shooting and forcing 19 turnovers per game.  Purdue is the only team to top 56 points against them this season.

Virginia Tech has been overvalued since a shocking upset of Villanova as a 9-point dog in their second game of the season.  They trailed VMI late and needed a big surge to win 64-57 as a 20-point favorite.  Then they lost 55-75 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Penn State.  There's no way the Hokies should be favored against the Tigers today.

Clemson wants revenge from two losses to Virginia Tech last season.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off two or more consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +7.5

Penn State is a 19-point blown lead against a good Seton Hall team away from being 4-0 this season.  They led that game by 8 with two minutes to go as well, but eventually fell 92-98 in overtime.

The Nittany Lions have played a tough schedule thus far.  They also have a win over VCU and a dominant 75-55 win at previously unbeaten Virginia Tech as 5.5-point dogs.  That's the same VA Tech team that upset Villanova earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions are a real contender in the Big Ten this season.

While Penn State has faced a gauntlet of a schedule, Michigan has been feasting on terrible teams during its 5-0 start.  The Wolverines have wins over Bowling Green, Oakland, Ball State, UCF and Toledo.  This is a huge step up in class for them today, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  They are way overvalued due to this 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS start.

Penn State has won their last two meetings with Michigan outright as underdogs.  They won 72-63 as 4.5-point dogs at Michigan, and 75-69 as 7-point home dogs.   The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.   Penn State is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Penn State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Richmond +7.5

Richmond is loaded with four returning starters this season from a team that went 24-7 last year.  They are off to a 4-0 start this season with an upset win over Kentucky.  They have five players averaging over 12 PPG this season with Golden (15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Cayo (14.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG), Francis (13.8 PPG), Burton (12.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Gilyard (12.3 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.3 SPG).

The Spiders are coming off a 10-point home win over Northern Iowa on Wednesday.  Now they've had three days to get ready for West Virginia.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers only have one day to get ready for Richmond.  They are coming off a 62-50 win over North Texas as a 13.5-point favorite on Friday.  

And they had to use a lot of energy to bounce back from a 29-21 halftime deficit against a mediocre Mean Green squad.  The game prior, they trailed a bad Georgetown team 34-32 at halftime and came back to win 80-71, but failing to cover an as 11.5-point favorite.  And they are definitely overvalued here again as a 7.5-point favorite against a Richmond team that has Sweet 16 potential.

Richmond is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The spot favors the Spiders, and they have a great chance to win this game outright, let alone cover this 7.5-point spread.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +10

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

The Purple Eagles finally got to play their first game on December 3rd.  They lost that game 45-75 to Syracuse.  They were clearly rusty as they shot just 27.7% from the field.  That rust carried over in their 54-70 loss to St. Peter’s last night as they shout just 35.1% as a team.

Now this is a rare situation where the Purple Eagles get to play St. Peter’s for a second consecutive day.  And I love this situation as they will be the more motivated, revenge-minded team here.  And we are getting an even better number on them than we did yesterday here as 10-point dogs.

After losing by 5 to St. Peter’s in their first meeting last year, Niagara came back with a 63-54 upset victory as 5-point dogs.  And I think they can pull the upset here in their rematch in 2020, let alone cover this 10-point spread.

Niagara is 9-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Purple Eagles are 7-0 ATS off two straight losses by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Niagara is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Niagara Saturday.

15* Alabama/Clemson Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Clemson +2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 4-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue, by 11 over Mississippi State and by 16 over Maryland.  They should not be underdogs to Alabama today.

Alabama is 3-1 this season with an 18-point loss to Stanford.  Their three wins have come against suspect competition in Jacksonville State, UNLV and Providence.  This will be the Crimson Tide’s toughest test yet.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -12.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are loaded this season with five returning starters, including Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season while outscoring their opponents by 27.8 points per game.  And they would be 4-0 ATS if not for a banked 3-pointer from halfcourt at the buzzer.

After making each work of three teams all by 27 points or more, the Hawkeyes were tested last time out against North Carolina.  The passed with flying colors in a 93-80 win as 4-point favorites in a game they controlled from start to finish.  Garza finished with fewer than 20 points for the first time in 20 games, but he still contributed 14 rebounds and four blocks.

That performance against UNC showed Iowa can still win as a team even when Garza doesn’t have a monster game.  Jordan Bohannon drilled seven 3-pointers, while CJ Frederick (21 points) and Joe Wieskamp (19) each had five 3-pointers.  And now the Hawkeyes take a step down in class here against the rival Iowa State Cyclones.  They’ll have no problem running up the score here.

Iowa State is in the midst of a 9-day layoff.  The Cyclones trailed by 15 points against South Dakota State before making it a 68-71 loss by the end of regulation.  And they trailed lowly Arkansas-Pine Bluff at halftime before winning 80-63 as a 33-point favorite.  They lost their best player Tyrese Haliburton to the NBA lottery, and there just isn’t much talent on this Cyclones team.  Steve Prohm is doing a terrible job, killing the tradition of great basketball in Ames.

Iowa has been an underdog to Iowa State in each of the last two meetings, and they blasted them 98-84 at home in 2018 and 84-68 on the road in 2019.  And oddsmakers still aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here in this 2020 meeting as they should be closer to a 20-point favorite.

Iowa State is 3-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +9

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

The Purple Eagles finally got to play their first game on December 3rd.  They lost that game 45-75 to Syracuse.  They were clearly rusty as they shot just 27.7% from the field.  They should be much sharper this time around, and it will help them taking a big step down in class here against St. Peter’s.

The Peacocks are 2-2 this season and coming off a 57-90 loss to Maryland as 12.5-point dogs.  That’s the same Maryland team that was just blown out by Clemson.  St. Peter’s only has wins over LaSalle and Stony Brook this season.

Last year, Niagara lost by 5 to St. Peter’s and won by 9 in the rematch.  So with all five starters and four of their top five scorers back, they should have no problem covering this 9-point spread in their first meeting of the 2020-21 season.

Niagara is 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Purple Eagles are 14-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last three years.  The Purple Eagles are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games off a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Niagara Friday.

15* Indiana/FSU ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers returned four starters this season and this is Archie Miller’s best team yet.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season, and I think their 44-66 loss to No. 17 Texas was an aberration that has them undervalued.  They shot just 23.9% in that defeat.

Indiana has been simply dominant in its other three games, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won by 30 over Tennessee Tech as a 25.5-point favorite, by 21 over Providence as a 2-point favorite and by 16 over Stanford as a 1.5-point dog.  Trayce Jackson-Davis is averaging 21.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG and is one of the best players in the country.

While Indiana gained some great experience playing against quality competition in the Maui Invitational, Florida State only has one game under its belt.  That came in an 86-58 win over North Florida as a 25.5-point favorite.  A quick look at North Florida shows that they are 0-6 this season with five losses by double-digits.  They aren’t very good.

This is a rebuilding FSU team that lost PG Trent Forrest, plus guards Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell, who were picked four and 11th in the 2020 NBA Draft, respectively.  That’s a lot to replace for head coach Leonard Hamilton.  I’ll side with the veteran Hoosiers who have proven themselves already against the much tougher competition.  Roll with Indiana Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Toledo +14.5

The Toledo Rockets have been too good to be catching 14.5 points from Michigan.  They are 3-2 this season with both their losses coming by a combined 5 points on the road to Bradley and Xavier.

They only lost 59-61 at Bradley as 2.5-point underdogs and 73-76 at Xavier as 8.5-point dogs.  That’s a very good Bradley team and a Xavier team that is 6-0 this season.  They beat Oakland by 27 as an 11-point favorite, Cleveland State by 9 as an 8.5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite.  So the Rockets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season.

Michigan covered its last two as well against UCF and Ball State at home, as well as a cover in a 14-point win over Bowling Green as a 13.5-point favorite.  But the 81-71 (OT) win over Oakland as a 31.5-point favorite really stands out like a sore thumb.  And now Toledo will be the best team that the Wolverines have faced yet this season.

The Rockets are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference road win.  Toledo is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road Ames off an ATS win.  The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Bet Toledo Wednesday.

15* Maryland/Clemson ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue and by 11 over Mississippi State.

Those two wins trump anything that Maryland has on its resume.  The Terrapins are 4-0 this season, but their four wins have all come at home over Old Dominion, Navy, Mount St. Mary’s and St. Peters.  They will now be playing their first road game of the season, and the Tigers are allowing 1,860 masked and socially distanced fans inso Littlejohn Coliseum.

The Terrapins lost Jalen Smith to the NBA lottery, had a bad recruiting class and had five reserves transfer in the offseason.  That’s why they are picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten this year.  So their 4-0 start is a mirage because it has come against such a soft schedule.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following two or more consecutive wins.  Maryland is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Terrapins are 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Clemson Wednesday.

20* UNC/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are loaded this season with five returning starters, including Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with all three wins by 27 points or more.  And they would be 3-0 ATS if not for a banked 3-pointer from halfcourt at the buzzer.

Garza does it all for the Hawkeyes.  He is shooting 76% from the field and average 34 points over his first three games.  He has also connected on 5-of-8 from 3-point range.  Joe Wieskamp is 6-of-12 from beyond the arc and C.J. Fredrick is 5-of-10.  This team is loaded with shooters surrounding Garza, making them a serious national title contender.

North Carolina has been up and down this season thus far.  They opened the season with blowout wins over bad Charleston and UNLV teams.  They were fortunate to beat Stanford 67-63 as they were sloppy with the ball and committed 24 turnovers.  And then they lost at the buzzer to Texas, 67-69.  This will be their toughest test of the season here tonight.

Iowa is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Hawkeyes are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games where it had 10 or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Tar Heels are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +7

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on Boston College.  They are 1-3 SU this season, but that is due to a brutal schedule where they have been underdogs in three of their four games.  They upset Rhode Island as a 2-point dog, only lost to Villanova by 9 as a 15-point dog, and lost by 4 to Seton Hall as a 2-point favorite.  Then they were blown out by 20 last time out as a 5.5-point dog, and that result has them undervalued.

The Eagles certainly are battle tested, while the Minnesota Golden Gophers are not.  Their schedule couldn’t have been any easier during a 4-0 start, and now it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Gophers.  They have wins over Wisconsin-Green Bay, Loyola-Marymount (twice) and North Dakota.  They only beat Loyola by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite and North Dakota by 9 as a 22-point favorite in their last two games.

The Eagles have been a great offensive team this season, averaging 74.8 points per game with five players averaging in double figures.  They are Winston Tabbs (15.5 PPG), CJ Felder (11.3), Jay Heath (11.3), Rich Kelly (11.0) and Makai Ashton-Langford (10.0).  This is a game the Eagles will have a chance to win outright tonight.  Roll with Boston College Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +9

The Pepperdine Waves are loaded this season with four starters and 82.5% of their minutes returning from last year.  Each of their top three returning scorers all made 34.9% or better from 3-point range.  This looks like Lorenzo Romar’s best team yet in his second stint in Malibu.  Senior Colbey Ross (20.5 PPG last year) is back along with junior wing Kessler Edwards (14.0 PPG).

The Waves are off to a 2-1 start this season.  They beat UC-Irvine 86-72 before losing to UCLA 98-107 in three overtimes.  They came back with a 94-45 win over St. Katherine.  That means they have played the exact same three opponents as San Diego State, which beat UCLA 73-58, UC-Irvine 77-58 and St. Katherine 83-41.  Those are two nearly identical results plus the win over UCLA.  But Pepperdine played UCLA tough, too.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.

Pepperdine is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Waves are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. good pressure teams that force 18 or more turnovers per game.  Pepperdine is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Waves are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  This 9-point spread is simply too much today.  Take Pepperdine Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are loaded this season.  They went 19-12 last year and returned 70% of their scoring.  Back to lead the way are seniors Brady Manek (14.4 PPG last year) and Austin Reaves (14.7 PPG).

You could say the Sooners got off to a great start this season with a 105-66 win as 15-point favorites over UTSA on Thursday.  And now they are ready to take down a rebuilding TCU team that is very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.

Indeed, the Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 as 18.5-point favorites.  Now they take a big step up in class here and all that they lost in the offseason will take its toll.

TCU lost 11 of its final 14 games last season.  They lost the program’s third all-time leading scorer in Desmond Bane.  They lost PG Kendric Davis in the transfer portal to SMU.  That is proving to be a huge loss as Davis is averaging 21.3 PPG and 8.0 APG through four games with the Mustangs.

The Sooners are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with TCU.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -19.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were a Top 5 team coming into the season.  But they were upset 60-61 as 15-point favorites over San Francisco.  They are undervalued as a result of that loss. Their other two games have been dominant with an 89-54 win over Towson State and a 76-51 win over St. Francis.

Now the Cavaliers should make easy work of a rebuilding Kent State team tonight.  The Golden Flashes lost five of their top six scorers from last season.  They return just one player who averaged at least 4.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG last season.  And they will be playing just their second game of the season after a cake walk game against Point Park.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That early wake up call in a loss to San Francisco will keep the Cavaliers focuses in the immediate future to put teams like Kent State away for 40 minutes.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +20

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

Syracuse has been dealing with Covid-19 issues and it showed in their opener against Bryant.  They had just one day of practice before nearly getting upset by Bryant in an 85-84 win as 22.5-point favorites.  Niagara is much better than Bryant and should not be catching 20 points here.

Last year, Syracuse only beat a bad Niagara team 71-57 as 22.5-point favorites.  And I have no doubt this Niagara team is way better than that team, while Syracuse is down this year.  Especially now that 6-10 senior Bourama Sidibe went down with a torn meniscus against Bryant.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.  The Orange are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.  Roll with Niagara Thursday.

20* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +9

The West Virginia Mountaineers returned four starters this season and are loaded.  They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins over South Dakota State, VCU and Western Kentucky with are three of the better mid-major teams in the country this year.

Gonzaga is overvalued in this matchup due to its No. 1 national ranking.  They did beat two big names in Kansas and Auburn, but those are two rebuilding teams.  And they allowed 90 points and 53.2% shooting to Kansas, a Kansas team that just shot 30% against Kentucky last night.  And Auburn needed overtime to beat St. Joe’s and lost outright to UCF, 55-63 in its two games outside Gonzaga.

It’s also worth noting the Bulldogs are dealing with Covid-19 issues which has affected their practices.  Bob Huggins called up contacts at ESPN just to get into this tournament specifically to face Gonzaga, so you know he’s confident his team can compete here.  I think they’ll be in this game for 40 minutes with a chance to win outright in the end.

The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +4

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

Western Kentucky has played a brutal schedule thus far and has gotten through with flying colors.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (3-0 if bet early number) against Northern Iowa, Memphis and West Virginia.  They won and covered against the first two, then gave WVU all it could handle in a 64-70 loss as closing 5.5-point dogs.  Hollingsworth (19.0 PPG) and Bassey (15.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.7 BPG) have been a handful thus far.

Louisville is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS against a much softer schedule.  They have blowout wins over Evansville and Prairie View A&M but barely beat Seton Hall 71-70 as 5.5-point favorites.  The Cardinals are missing several players due to injury, including center Malik Williams, who is recovering from foot surgery.  Samuell Williamson, another center, is day-to-day with a dislocated toe.  They aren’t going to have an answer for Bussey inside here.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Western Kentucky is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.  The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Kentucky +17

Eastern Kentucky is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They beat North Florida 80-67 as 1-point favorites and Charleston Southern 60-50 as 6-point favorites.  They play at the seventh-fasted pace in the country and have already forced 46 turnovers in two games.

I think that pace will give Xavier a problem here.  Xavier will be playing its 4th game in 6 days and will have a hard time keeping pace.  The Musketeers are tired, and they are very fortunate to be 3-0, which has them overvalued.  They hit a game-winner with 5.4 seconds left to beat Bradley 51-50 as 10-point favorites, and they needed an 8-2 run to close to top Toledo 76-73 as a 9.5-point favorite.

Eastern Kentucky is a lot better shooting team than they have shown.  It’s impressive that they have two double-digit victories when you consider they have shot just 9-for-56 (16.1%) from 3-point range.  That just shows you how good their defense has been.  They will shoot it better against Xavier here.

Eastern Kentucky is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games over the past two years.  The Colonels are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Colonels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  Eastern Kentucky is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Bet Eastern Kentucky Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +8.5

The Richmond Spiders went 24-7 last season and return all five starters.  I like their experience here early in the season against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is playing 10 newcomers.

PG Jacob Gilyard was 10th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and led the nation with 3.19 steals per game.  Senior Nathan Cayo had 23 points and made all 10 of his field goal attempts in an 82-64 win over Morehead State Friday.

Kentucky started four freshmen and senior transfer Olivier Starr from Wake Forest against Morehead State.  They have seven freshmen and three transfers among their newcomers.  And this test against veteran Richmond will be much more difficult than the Morehead State game was for them.

Richmond is 8-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -8.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team in their opener.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  They Wildcats are a legit national title contender in 2020.

They came back and topped a nationally ranked Arizona State team 83-74 as 6-point favorites.  Robinson-Earl showed out with 28 points, while Moore (16), Daniels (14) and Gillespie (11) helped lead the way once again.  These four players are a real handful for any team.

Virginia Tech is picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC by most publications, and for good reason.  They lost their best player in Landers Nolley to Memphis via transfer.  And the transition from Buzz Williams to Mike Young as head coach wasn’t a great one.  They went just 2-13 ATS over their final 15 games and finished 6-15 ATS in ACC play.

The Hokies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games.  Roll with Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

The UCLA Bruins will be looking to bounce back from a bad loss to San Diego State in which they were 3-point favorites and lost 58-73 after shooting just 39.5% from the floor and committing 15 turnovers.  They will be much sharper here against Pepperdine, a team that is now getting too much respect after beating UC-Irvine 86-72 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  So it’s a good ‘buy low’ on UCLA and ’sell high’ on Pepperdine situation here.

The Bruins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  Pepperdine is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +8

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

And they’ve shown it in their first two games.  They beat Northern Iowa 93-87 as a 3.5-point favorite in their opener.  And yesterday they backed it up with a 75-69 upset win as 4-point dogs over Memphis.  That’s a Memphis team that might be the most talented in the country.  And now they are getting zero respect as 8-point dogs to West Virginia today in a game they could win outright.

The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Western Kentucky is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Villanova/ASU ESPN Late-Night DESSERT on Villanova -4.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team yesterday.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  More concerning is that Arizona State struggled to put away a rebuilding Rhode Island team 94-88 yesterday. 

The Wildcats are 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Villanova is a legit national title contender and should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.  Roll with UCLA Wednesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -22

The Houston Cougars made a deep run into the NCAA Tournament two years ago before 'settling' for a 24-8 season last year.  Now the Cougars return their entire backcourt in Caleb Mills, De’Jon Jarreau and Quentin Grimes.  

Both Jarreau and Grimes are future NBA players, and Mills compliments them well.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson got a great big man transfer in Reggie Chaney from Arkansas.  It’s easy to see why for the first time in 37 years that the Houston Cougars (No. 17) open the season as a Top 25 team.

Lamar is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games with a total set of 135 to 139.5.  The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* 2020 CBB Season Opener on Arkansas-Little Rock -12

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Prairie View A&M returns just one starter this season and loses each of its top five scorers from a year ago.  So we have one team here returning all five starters and one team basically losing all five.  Little Rock should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Wednesday.

20* UNC/Syracuse ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -3 

I was on North Carolina last night in their 78-56 beat down of Virginia Tech.  And I’m on them again as short favorites over Syracuse for many of the same reasons.  The Tar Heels have a huge home-court advantage as evidenced last night with this tournament being played in Greensboro, NC. 

The Tar Heels have both Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) and Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) back healthy, something they didn’t have earlier this season.  The result has been a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run in their last five games overall with all four wins by 6 points or more. 

That includes their 92-79 road win at Syracuse as 5-point dogs on February 29th.  It should be more of the same here as the Tar Heels are by far the superior team when healthy.  And North Carolina is now 9-0 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Syracuse. 

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Orange are 2-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Syracuse is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Vanderbilt Commodores have been grossly undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes outright wins over Alabama as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina as 5-point home dogs in their final two games of the regular season. 

Now, Vanderbilt is catching 9.5 points in a neutral court game against Arkansas in the opening round of the SEC Tournament.  But this is far from neutral as there will be a big home-court advantage for the Commodores with this SEC Tournament being played in Nashville, TN. 

While Arkansas has been crushing it at home this season, the Razorbacks have been awful away from home.  They are just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in all road/neutral games this season.  And they were beaten by two of the worst teams in the SEC in Georgia and Texas A&M by 10 and 8, respectively, in their last two road games. 

Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Commodores.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5 

Kansas City, Missouri is known as Hilton South because Iowa State fans always travel well for the Big 12 Tournament.  It’s no coincidence that the Cyclones have won four of the past six Big 12 tournaments, which is a remarkable feat. 

Sure, Iowa State is down this year, but you can never count them out in the Big 12 Tournament.  And getting +6.5 with the Cyclones in this opener against Oklahoma State is simply too many points.  The Cyclones will get Prentiss Nixon back from injury, and there’s a good chance they get Rasir Bolton back after he missed the last regular season game with a concussion. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Oklahoma State, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its final three games of the season.  But those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas.  So the Cyclones want revenge from their 61-73 loss at Oklahoma State on February 29th less than two weeks ago. 

Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday. 

15* VA Tech/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -4 

The UNC Tar Heels are the most underrated team in the country.  They have so many close losses this season and have battled through injury all year.  But they are finally pretty healthy heading into the ACC Tournament and it has shown with how they have played down the stretch. 

The Tar Heels are the team nobody wants to face in the ACC Tournament.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over NC State by 6 at home, Syracuse by 13 on the road and Wake Forest by 10 at home.  Their only loss came by 13 at Duke as 10.5-point dogs in a game that was close until the final two minutes. 

Now UNC wants revenge on Virginia Tech from a 77-79 (2 OT) road loss on January 22nd.  But they didn’t have Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) or Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) in that contest.  Anthony and Robinson have been back down the stretch, though Robinson is questionable tonight with a head injury. 

The Hokies have been woeful since that double-OT win over the Tar Heels.  They are just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall with nine of those losses by 4 points or more, including five by double-digits. 

The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with North Carolina Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -3.5 

Home-court advantage has been huge for both of these teams this season.  And it has been important in this head-to-head series as well as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Illinois wants revenge form a tough 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd in which the Fighting Illini blew a halftime lead.  They also blew a halftime lead at Ohio State in their last game adding to their motivation.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 SU at home this season and will get their revenge. 

Iowa is just 2-7 SU in true road games in Big Ten play with its only wins coming at Northwestern and Minnesota, which are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or more and the seven losses are by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons, losing by 14.3 points per game in this spot.  The Hawkeyes are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Fighting Illini are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Illinois Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers have been a very tough out at home this season.  They are 11-4 SU at home with some impressive wins against some of the top teams in the ACC.  Now they take down Alabama on Senior Day. 

Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last five home games with its only loss to Mississippi State by 4.  The Tigers beat Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia.  They also beat Florida earlier this season at home. 

Alabama is coming off an ugly 79-87 home loss to Vanderbilt as 12-point favorites.  They’ve been playing without John Petty Jr. (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) who remains questionable with an elbow injury.  But I like Missouri whether or not he plays as the Crimson Tide are just 4-7 SU in true road games this season. 

Plays against road dogs SU after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 48-11 (81.4%) SU since 1997.  The Tigers basically just have to win SU to cover this short number.  Take Missouri Saturday.

20* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +3.5 

After going losing three straight, including a 68-71 (OT) loss at Baylor as 7-point dogs last time out, Texas Tech needs a signature win to assure they make the NCAA Tournament.  They get that opportunity today hosting Kansas. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a tough 75-78 loss at Kansas as 8.5-point dogs on February 1st in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Jayhawks on the road, so they certainly can beat them at home. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Jayhawks, who have won 15 straight games coming in while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.  But they failed to cover their last two in a 4-point win at Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites and a 9-point home win over TCU as 16-point favorites, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title so they certainly won’t be as motivated as Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders are 13-3 SU in home games this season.  Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 18.7 PPG in in this spot.  The Red Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Take Texas Tech Saturday. 

20* Kentucky/Florida CBS No-Brainer on Florida -2.5 

Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC regular season title.  They also already beat Florida 65-59 at home two weeks ago on February 22nd.  I could see them being really flat today. 

That won’t be the case for the Gators, who are out for revenge and still trying to make sure they make the NCAA Tournament.  The Gators are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Tennessee by 5 and Kentucky by 6. 

Florida has been dominant at home here of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 points per game.  That includes a 15-point win over LSU and a 14-point win over Arkansas. 

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Gators are 11-3 SU at home this season.  Bet Florida Saturday. 

15* Wisconsin/Indiana ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ line.  They’ll be highly motivated for a home win over the Wisconsin Badgers today that would likely put them into the big dance. 

Indiana is a sensational 15-3 SU at home this season.  They basically just have to win to cover, and they want revenge from a bad loss at Wisconsin in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are just 5-9 SU in all road/neutral games this season. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I could easily see them letting up here in their regular season finale as they have already earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament thanks to this seven-game winning streak. 

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less this season.  Indiana is 35-19 ATS in its last 56 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1 

I love the spot for Northern Illinois tonight.  It’s Senior Day so this will be the Huskies’ final home game.  And they want revenge from a 59-63 road loss at Ball State as 7-point dogs on February 11th. 

I expect the Huskies to get their revenge at home this time around.  Northern Illinois is 11-3 SU at home this season with its only losses coming to Northern Iowa, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Akron.  The Huskies are 7-1 SU at home in MAC play this season.  Ball State is just 2-7 SU in its last nine true road games. 

Ball State is 1-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that win between 51% & 60% of their games over the last two years.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Huskies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4 

The Clemson Tigers want revenge from a 59-68 road loss at Georgia Tech on February 25th less than two weeks ago.  They don’t have to wait long for revenge, and they should get it at home this time around. 

Clemson has been a very tough out at home here of late.  The Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games which includes upset wins over Florida State as 3.5-point dogs, Louisville as 4.5-point dogs and Duke as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Yellow Jackets, who have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But four of those wins were at home with their lone road win coming at lowly Wake Forest.  Clemson is 18-4 SU & 13-9 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Georgia Tech. 

Clemson is 7-0 ATS in Friday games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Plays against road teams (Georgia Tech) - off three or more consecutive wins in a game involving two winning teams (51% to 60%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Clemson Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +15.5 

The Cal Golden Bears have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 15.5-point road underdogs to the Oregon Ducks tonight. 

Cal only lost 72-77 at home to Oregon as 10.5-point dogs on January 30th in their first meeting this season.  So they will be out for revenge and should have no problem staying within 15.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

Cal is a sensational 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Oregon.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. at team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Cal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win.  Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  Take California Thursday. 

20* Boise State/UNLV Mountain West No-Brainer on UNLV -1 

Nobody is playing better than UNLV in the Mountain West heading into the conference tournament.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins over New Mexico and San Diego State as 14.5-point dogs. 

UNLV gets to play at home for the conference tournament, which is a huge advantage that isn’t being factored into the line enough.  They won their last two home games over Colorado State by 24 and Boise State by 10 and are 12-6 SU at home this season.  I realize that Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG) is doubtful to play tonight for the Rebels, but they get back Donnie Tillman (10.1 PPG) from a five-game absence to make up for it. 

Boise State is just 4-8 SU in true road games this season.  And that 66-76 loss at UNLV was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  UNLV led 60-33 with 10 minutes left before calling off the dogs.  The Broncos outscored them by 17 in garbage time.  You’ll get a focused UNLV for 40 minutes in this one and the result will be another blowout win in their favor. 

T.J. Otzelberger is 15-4 ATS in home games off two straight wins in all games he has coached.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  UNLV is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet UNLV Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida International +9.5 

I was on Florida International when they lost 57-60 at LA Tech as 10-point dogs on February 13th.  So I’m certainly taking them again in the rematch at LA Tech as 9.5-point dogs this time around. 

This has simply been a bad match for LA Tech in recent years.  FIU is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with LA Tech despite being the underdog in all four.  They have an excellent shot of pulling the upset again tonight. 

Asking LA Tech to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and have been grossly overvalued here down the stretch.  Their four wins during this stretch have come by 3, 3, 2 and 13 points. 

LA Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off three straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.  FIU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida International Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are on the bubble and cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.  They should make easy work of the Golden Gophers just as they did when they won 68-56 as 5.5-point road dogs at Minnesota on February 19th in their first meeting this season. 

Minnesota is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall to play its way out of NCAA Tournament contention.  The Golden Gophers put a lot of energy into two straight heartbreaking losses to Maryland by 1 and Wisconsin by 2.  I don’t think they’ll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face an Indiana team that simply wants it more tonight. 

Indiana is 14-3 SU at home this season.  The Hoosiers are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season with eight of those nine losses coming by 4 points or more. 

The Hoosiers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 ATS vs. bad pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in road games revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points over the last three seasons.  Take Indiana Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -3 

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Isaiah Joe (16.9 PPG) in the lineup.  They recently lost five straight games that he missed due to an injury. 

But the Razorbacks are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS since his return with wins over Missouri by 10 and Tennessee by 17 at home with their only loss coming at Georgia.  The Razorbacks need to win these last two games to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  It starts tonight with LSU at home. 

Adding to Arkansas’ motivation is that it will be out for revenge from a 77-79 loss at LSU in their first meeting on January 8th.  The Razorbacks are 13-4 SU at home this season and should be able to handle a struggling Tigers team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. 

LSU is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season.  Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after two straight games where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday. 

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5 

The gift that keeps on giving is betting Iowa at home.  The Hawkeyes are 14-1 SU & 11-2-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  And now the Hawkeyes are highly motivated for revenge from their worst loss of the season at Purdue in their first meeting on February 5th. 

The Hawkeyes are even more potent now after getting C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.8% 3-pointers) back from an ankle injury in their 77-68 home win over Penn State over the weekend.  Purdue shot 63.1% as a team and 55.9% from 3-point range while draining 19 3-pointers against Iowa in their first meeting.  That’s not going to happen again. 

Purdue is 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Boilermakers are 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  That includes 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in all Big Ten road games with their only wins coming at Northwestern by 3 and Indiana.  Their seven losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Purdue is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Iowa Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -2 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have gone 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 SEC games to play their way into NCAA Tournament contention.  And it’s worth noting that each of their last three losses all came by 6 points or less, so they have been competitive in almost every game. 

That includes their 76-79 loss at Mississippi State on February 19th just a few weeks ago.  Now the Gamecocks want revenge on the Bulldogs at home this time around.  South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game during this stretch at home. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 SU in the last four.  Mississippi State is 4-6 SU In true road games this season with its only wins coming at Coastal Carolina, Florida, Arkansas and Missouri. 

South Carolina is 16-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games this season.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* Colorado/Stanford ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 

The Stanford Cardinal have played their way back to the ‘first four out’ line.  The Cardinal have gotten healthy and have played up to their potential over the last few weeks.  Now they really have a chance to add to their resume with a win over a ranked Colorado team Sunday. 

Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Cardinal went on the road and beat Washington by 8 and Washington State by 18.  They also beat Utah at home by 8.  The Cardinal are 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS at home this season.  They hung tough in a 74-81 loss at Colorado on February 8th as 8.5-point dogs.  They led that game by 11 at halftime and now want revenge. 

Colorado has been grossly overvalued of late due to that Top 25 ranking.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at home to UCLA by 7 as 10-point favorites and were upset at California by 16 as 8.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  We’ll keep ’selling high’ on the Buffaloes today. 

The Buffaloes are 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  Colorado is 12-38-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 home games.  The Cardinal are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.  Take Stanford Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -1 

The SMU Mustangs have come up big with wins over Houston and Memphis recently that help their tournament resume.  Now they get another good chance here to inch closer to the bubble by beating a fellow bubble team in Wichita State. 

Considering SMU is 15-1 at home this season, this is a great value for the Mustangs today as a short 1-point favorite.  They are 8-0 at home in conference play and home one of the best home-court advantages in the AAC. 

SMU has the rest advantage here last playing on February 25th while Wichita State last played on February 27th.  The Shockers have basically lost to all the best teams they have faced on the road this season.  They are 2-4 SU in their last six AAC road games with their only wins coming over UCF and USF.  They lost to Temple, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Wichita State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games like SMU.  The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet SMU Sunday. 

15* Arizona/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3.5 

Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins in first place in the Pac-12, tied with Oregon.  The Bruins have put themselves in this position by going 10-2 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to ASU and Oregon. 

UCLA is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Bruins face a reeling Arizona team that is coming off back-to-back upset losses to Oregon at home and USC on the road.  There’s no way Arizona should be favored on the road tonight with their injury situation.   

The Wildcats will be without Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) for a second straight game due to a back injury.  They could also be without Max Hazzard (5.5 PPG) for a second straight game due to personal reasons.  Arizona’s offense was dreadful in the 48-57 loss at USC without these two on Thursday. 

UCLA upset Arizona 65-52 as 12.5-point road underdogs on February 8th in their first meeting.  Sean Miller is just 9-19 ATS revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Wildcats.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last three years.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Take UCLA Saturday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 

The USC Trojans want revenge form a tough 64-66 road loss at Arizona State earlier this month on February 8th.  The Trojans led that game 40-32 at halftime on the road and feel like they let one get away. 

Now, the Trojans will be highly motivated for a win at home tonight where they are 12-2 SU this season.  They just got back Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Rakocevic (10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) from illness and promptly beat Arizona 57-48 as 4.5-point home underdogs on Thursday. 

Arizona State is coming off a tough 72-75 road loss at UCLA on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat just two days later and hit the road again to face a USC team that will be motivated for revenge.  That’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

USC is 17-4 SU & 12-9 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Arizona State.  The Trojans are 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.  USC is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take USC Saturday. 

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5 

Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs.  Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to.  That has certainly shown in their last two games. 

The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday.  Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada. 

Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in.  They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting.  You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around. 

The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs.  That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way. 

It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season.  And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season. 

Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU.  The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits.  The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs. 

Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach. 

Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion.  BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -3 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from their 51-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 5-point dogs on February 1st.  It will be a completely different story at Bradley this time around. 

The Braves are 15-1 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  And it’s worth noting the Braves didn’t have their best player in Elijah Childs (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) in that first meeting with the Ramblers. 

Loyola-Chicago is 4-6 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Ramblers are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five MVC road games with their only win coming by 7 at Evansville, which is 0-17 in MVC play.  The four losses have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Loyola-Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Bradley is 57-29 ATS in its last 86 home games revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5 

Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight. 

Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness.  Both are healthier now and listed as probable.  This should give the Trojans a big boost.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season. 

Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch. 

The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball.  Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego. 

Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home. 

San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season.  They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back. 

Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Gonzaga Thursday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5 

I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in.  Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime.  Those are three of the best teams in the conference. 

Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season.  The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago.  And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season.  They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores. 

Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road.  The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average.  The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy.  And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury.  The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso. 

Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight.  The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season.  That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season. 

Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team. 

The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5 

Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers.  They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th.  Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it. 

Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year.  Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more. 

Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska.  Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more.  I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered. 

Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws.  Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Roll with Penn State Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4 

The SMU Mustangs will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses at Tulane and Tulsa.  They host a Memphis team that they already beat 74-70 on the road earlier this season. 

I like SMU’s chances of bouncing back considering they have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country as well.  The Mustangs are 14-1 at home this season and just upset Houston at home in their last home game.  They are 6-0 at home in AAC play this season. 

Memphis is in a big letdown spot off its 60-59 upset home win over Houston.  The Tigers are 2-4 SU in AAC true road games this year with their two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 14.5 points per game. 

SMU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Memphis.  The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Memphis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season.  Take SMU Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Chicago -6.5 

Loyola-Chicago has one of the best home-court advantages in the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  And the Ramblers want revenge from a 62-65 road loss at Drake in their first meeting this season on January 7th. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in MVC play this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.9 points per game.  They have won six of their eight home games this season by 9 points or more, including wins over Bradley by 11 and Northern Iowa by 9, which are two of the best teams in the conference. 

Drake has been overvalued big-time of late.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Evansville by 5 and Valpo by 2 in OT.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in MVC road games this season with their only win coming at Evansville, the worst team in the conference. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Drake, winning by an average of 11.8 PPG.  The Ramblers have won by 22, 15 and 15 points in their last three home meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Loyola-Chicago is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ramblers are 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.  

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate.  There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight. 

The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10.  They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road.  They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well. 

Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in.  The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10.  They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites. 

La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking.  That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has been awful on the road this season.  It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota.  They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland.  They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State. 

Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa.  They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings. 

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years.  The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals.  The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer. 

Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th. 

Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams.  The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites.  It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Florida State Monday. 

15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today.  They are favored for good reason.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  They’ll have their revenge Sunday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa.  They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in.  They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites.  It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today. 

The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.  The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ohio State Sunday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +15 

Few teams have come as close to beating San Diego State (26-0) as UNLV did a few weeks back.  The Runnin’ Rebels only lost 67-71 as 7-point home dogs to the Aztecs.  Now they’re highly motivated for revenge and to pull off the shocker in the rematch. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the unbeaten Aztecs, who have also managed to cover five in a row coming in.  Oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be knowing the public is going to continue pounding San Diego State. 

UNLV comes in playing well with three wins in their last four games.  Their only loss was a 3-point setback to Nevada in overtime.  They beat Fresno State at home and Colorado State by 24 at home, while also upsetting New Mexico on the road.  It’s a team that is proving rapidly under one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball in T.J. Otzelberger. 

Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games as a head coach.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UNLV) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with UNLV Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +9.5 

The Washington Huskies have no business being 9.5-point favorites against Cal tonight.  The Huskies are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Asking them to win this game is asking a lot, let alone asking them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to beat us. 

California is improving rapidly as the season goes on.  The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with only two losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They hung tough in a 6-point road loss at Colorado as 16-point dogs and are coming off an upset at Washington State as 6.5-point dogs in a 9-point win. 

California already beat Washington 61-58 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Golden Bears have a huge rest advantage coming into this game.  They come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday while Washington played on Thursday in a 64-72 home loss to Stanford.  The Huskies only have one day in between games here. 

Washington is 0-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games overall.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Golden Bears today.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

This is an awful spot for San Francisco.  The Dons had a golden opportunity to beat Gonzaga on Thursday, leading by 9 at halftime.  But they were dominated in the 2nd half and lost 54-71.  It’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

There’s no way San Francisco is going to be able to get up for Pepperdine today.  They won’t be focused for this game, which will make it tough to cover this lofty 8-point spread. Not to mention, the Dons are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall anyway, so it’s not like they are playing well coming in. 

Pepperdine has been impressive here down the stretch as they are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those losses were by single-digits.  Pepperdine is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. 

The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Pepperdine is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better over the last two years.  Take Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5 

The Syracuse Orange are desperate for a win to get back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have dropped five of their last six against a gauntlet of a schedule with the losses coming to Duke, FSU, Louisville, Clemson and NC State with three of those losses on the road.  Only one of the losses came by double-digits, so they proved they could play with the best. 

Now the Orange get a break in the schedule here with Georgia Tech coming to town.  It’s a Yellow Jackets team that they already beat 97-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It’s a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets because you need to be able to make 3-pointers to be able to beat Syracuse.  Well, Georgia Tech ranks 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting (30.1%).  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -2.5 

The George Washington Colonials are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with some very impressive wins along the way. 

Indeed, the Colonials are coming off two straight upset road wins at George Mason as 6-point dogs and at Duquesne as 10-point dogs.  They also upset Davidson at home and UMass on the road during this stretch.  They should be a bigger favorite over La Salle today. 

La Salle is 3-10 in Atlantic 10 play this season with its only wins coming against Fordham (twice) and St. Joseph’s, which are the two worst teams in the conference.  George Washington is 14-4 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in it last 18 home meetings with La Salle. 

The Explorers are 1-8 ATS in road games off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  The Colonials are 7-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  La Salle is 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take George Washington Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State PK 

The Missouri State Bears are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road at Southern Illinois by 2 at the buzzer and at Bradley in overtime.  Those are two of the best teams in the MVC. 

They also went on the road and won by 13 at Indiana State, crushed Drake by 35 at home and crushed Illinois State by 20 at home.  Now they want revenge from a 58-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 6-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 4th.  With the way they are playing right now, they will get their revenge at home. 

Loyola-Chicago has played very poorly on the road in MVC play this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost by 5 at Northern Iowa, by 5 at Southern Illinois and by 29 at Indiana State.  Their only road win was against the worst team in the MVC in Evansville, and they only won that game by 7 points and failed to cover the number. 

Dana Ford is 10-2 ATS after two straight games where his team was called for 22 or more fouls in all games he has coached.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-13 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 11-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +1 

The Xavier Musketeers are coming up clutch here down the stretch with their NCAA Tournament lives at stake.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming at Butler by 5 as 5.5-point dogs. 

They went on the road and upset Seton Hall by 12 as 9-point dogs, upset DePaul on the road by 8 as 1-point dogs and also beat Providence at home and St. John’s on the road.  Now they’ve love to get revenge on Villanova from a 62-68 road loss in their first meeting this season. 

The Wildcats certainly have been vulnerable here of late.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only wins came against DePaul, Temple and Marquette by 1.  They were upset at home by both Creighton and Seton Hall and also lost on the road at Butler.  This Villanova team isn’t nearly as strong as some of Jay Wright’s teams in recent years. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Xavier is 10-3 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5 

I love the spot for the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday.  They are coming off three straight losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they host Michigan today. 

Purdue is 17-2 SU in Big Ten home games since last season.  The Boilermakers have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country.  And that has been on display this season with wins by 29 over Virginia, by 29 over Michigan State, by 19 over Wisconsin and by 36 over Iowa in four of their most impressive home performances. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Wolverines.  They are coming off a win at Rutgers on Wednesday, which ended a 17-0 start at home for the Scarlet Knights.  It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines here Saturday. 

Purdue wants revenge from a 78-84 (OT) road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  And the Wolverines may not have leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 PPG), who sat out that Rutgers game with an ankle injury.  Michigan only has two days to get ready for Purdue while the Boilermakers have three days to get ready after last playing on Tuesday. 

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.  Matt Painter is 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of Purdue.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

20* VCU/Saint Louis ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Saint Louis +2 

The Saint Louis Billikens are 18-8 this season and a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a big finish here to make the dance, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it. 

The Billikens should not be home underdogs to the VCU Rams tonight.  Saint Louis is 12-3 at home this season with their only losses coming to Seton Hall, Dayton (by 2 in OT) and Duquesne.  Those are two of the best teams in the country and a bubble team in Duquesne. 

VCU is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, so it is getting way too much respect from the books with how it is playing of late.  The Rams lost by 12 at Rhode Island and by 18 at Richmond in their two road games during this stretch.  They were also upset by George Mason as 14.5-point home favorites and fell to Dayton by 5 at home on Tuesday. 

VCU Is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Billikens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss.  VCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as an underdog.  Take Saint Louis. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +9.5 

The USC Trojans are playing too well right now to be catching 9.5 points from the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Trojans are 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only lost one of those 11 games by more than 9 points. 

That was a shocking 57-78 home loss to Colorado as 1.5-point favorites on February 1st.  And that place right into my handicap here with the Trojans out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They will simply want this game more tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning four of their last five games overall.  But in their two home games during this stretch, they failed to cover both in a 6-point home win over Cal as 16-point favorites and a 7-point home win over Stanford as 8.5-point favorites. 

USC was able to win and cover its last two games with a 62-56 home win as 2-point favorites over Washington and a 70-51 home win over Washington State as 7-point favorites despite playing without leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG).  Well, Okongwu returns from a concussion tonight to give them a huge boost. 

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in true road games this season.  USC is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  They have won all six of their Big Ten home games by 5 points or more and should easily cover this 2.5-point spread tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Ohio State after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Three of those five wins came at home while the two road wins came at Northwestern and Michigan (by 3).  The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Buckeyes are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Iowa is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.   

The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this year.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still a perfect 17-0 at home this season and coming off a 15-point home win over a very good Illinois team.  I expect them to make easy work of Michigan at home tonight as well. 

The Wolverines are starting to get too much respect from the books again after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them as their two road wins during this stretch were against the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Rutgers will be the more motivated team because they want revenge from a 63-69 loss to Michigan on February 1st just a few weeks ago.  It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside The Rac for the rematch tonight as the Scarlet Knights look to remain unbeaten at home. 

Rutgers are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +9 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Syracuse after losing four of their last five coming in.  But all four losses came by 9 points or less.  They lost at Clemson by 1, at Florida State by 3, at home to NC State by 5 and at home to Duke by 9. 

That’s a brutal schedule and the fact that they hung tough in every game makes me believe they’ll have no problem staying within 9 points of Louisville tonight.  The Orange have won their last two meetings with the Cardinals, winning 69-49 at home and 78-73 on the road as 7-point dogs. 

Louisville isn’t playing well enough to be laying 9 points here.  They are 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Georgia Tech and lost by 15 as 4.5-point favorites at Clemson.  They only beat Virginia by 7 at home and failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites against Wake Forest in a 10-point win. 

The Orange are 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games this season.  Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -4.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and probably the best team in the Big East in my opinion.  Off two tough losses to Creighton (by 5) and Providence (by 3), I fully expect the Pirates to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against Butler. 

Seton Hall went on the road and beat Butler 78-70 in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 41.4% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  They should have no problem covering the 4.5 points at home this time around as we would expect them to be more efficient from the floor. 

It’s clear now that Butler’s 15-1 start was fraudulent.  The Bulldogs have gone 4-6 SU & 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games since.  Their four wins during this stretch all came by 5 points or less, and their six losses have come by an average 11.0 points per game.  They were just upset by Georgetown as 12-point home favorites.  And three of their last four road games have resulted in losses by 13 points or more. 

Butler is 1-10 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 3-14 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Butler is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games off a home loss.  The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall, including 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV -1 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on UNLV here as a short home favorite over Colorado State.  They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five losses coming against the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Runnin’ Rebels barely lost at home to unbeaten San Diego State by 4 and Nevada by 3 in OT.  The other three losses came on the road to Utah State, Nevada and Colorado State.  That road loss to the Rams placed the Runnin’ Rebels in revenge mode tonight as they get them at home this time around. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on a Colorado State team that has gone 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.  They have taken advantage of a soft schedule not having to play San Diego State during this stretch.  And they’ve lost both games against the best team they faced in Utah State. 

UNLV is 19-4 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Colorado State.  The Runnin’ Rebels basically just have to win to cover at home tonight.  They’ll get their revenge on the Rams in this one.  Roll with UNLV Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2.5 

This is a huge game for the LSU Tigers tonight.  They have dropped three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  This stretch followed a 10-game winning streak dating back to non-conference play. 

But all three of those losses came on the road, including an OT loss to Auburn and a 6-point loss at Alabama.  LSU is a dominant 13-1 at home this season and basically just need to win to cover this short number against Kentucky tonight. 

Kentucky has road losses to South Carolina and Auburn in SEC play this season.  They barely survived at home last time out over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites.  And I just don’t think this Kentucky team is as strong as many of the ones we’ve seen in year’s past. 

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS off three of more consecutive wins this season.  LSU is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Bet LSU Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Butler by 4 (OT) and at Villanova by 1. 

Marquette is 12-1 at home this season and should be able to cover this short number against Creighton.  The Golden Eagles will have a huge rest advantage having last played on February 12th while Creighton last played on February 15th.  Basically, Marquette gets five days to prepare for Creighton while the Bluejays only have two. 

No question Creighton is playing well also having won seven of their last eight games overall.  But I just think Marquette is going to want this one more, especially considering they are out for revenge from a loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season on January 1st. 

Creighton is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Marquette is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Marquette Tuesday.