20* Michigan/Ohio State CBS No-Brainer on Ohio State +10.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Penn State OVER 154.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 151

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* CBB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Troy OVER 154.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Miami/Marshall CBB No-Brainer on OVER 161.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Joe's +8

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State/IU Indy OVER 169.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois-Chicago +3.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Penn State +25.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +15

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wright State/Robert Morris OVER 147.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/Florida Atlantic OVER 163

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +6.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/SMU OVER 159.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +26.5

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Buffalo OVER 163

No analysis. On vacation from Tuesday, February 3rd to Monday, February 9th. Will be back with analysis Tuesday, February 10th.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wichita State/Tulsa OVER 151

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Hurricane rank 24th in adjusted offense and 171st in adjusted defense.  They rank 13th in effective FG percentage and 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage as they are an elite shooting team that has scored 82 points or more in 5 consecutive games.  They are scoring 87.7 points per game this season.

Wichita State is coming off consecutive unders but they have played a bevy of under teams here recently in Memhis, ECU, North Texas and Rice.  Against some good offenses like USF, FAU and Charlotte they went for 204, 171 and 152 combined points.  Wichita State has scored at least 74 points in eight of its last 10 games overall, and if it gets to 74 today this thing is going OVER with ease.

This will be their first meeting with Tulsa, another elite offensive team that they won't be prepared for.  This has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton +7.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 20-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 8-1 in games decided by 6 points or less and OT games this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.  They needed OT to beat Villanova 75-67 as 11.5-point home favorites last weekend, and again struggled to get by Providence in a 87-81 home win as 15.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Creighton Bluejays after their worst loss of the season, a 86-62 road loss to lowly Marquette where they had an off shooting night at 40.6% from the field and 20.6% from 3-point range.  They were probably lolking ahead to this game against UConn.

Creighton had gone 7-3 SU in its previous 10 games with two losses coming by 2 and 5 points.  The Bluejays will play much better at home here, where they are 8-2 SU this season.  They are 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings with UConn.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas -6

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a wagon at home this season.  They are 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in all home games outscoring opponents by 22.3 points per game.  That includes impressive home wins over Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 34, Vanderbilt by 25 and Louisville by 9.

Now the Razorbacks will be amped up to get some revenge for John Calipari against the Kentucky Wildcats.  Kentucky is one of the most fraudulent teams in the SEC and has been exposed on the road this season.  The Wildcats lost by 25 at Vanderbilt and by 15 at Alabama.  They also lost by 8 at Louisville. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Big Sky TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eastern Washington/Northern Colorado OVER 156.5

Northern Colorado is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Bears rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 129th in adjusted offense and 267th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 78.2 points per game to combine with their opponents to average 161.7 points per game.

Eastern Washington is 13-7 OVER in all games this season including 11-2 OVER in road games.  The Eagles rank 145th in adjusted tempo, 154th in adjusted offense and just 308th in adjusted defense.  They are averaging 78.0 points per game and allowing 88.7 points per game on the road this season, combining for 166.7 points per game away from home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Miami Ohio OVER 156

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 94.1 points per game this season.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 172nd in adjusted defense.  

The Redhawks are 14-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 156 is too short for a game involving Miami Ohio right now.

Northern Illinois should be able to hang a big number on Miami Ohio's pour defense to contribute to this total.  They recently put up 77 points at Ohio and 85 points at home against Western Michigan.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +14.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They upset Cincinnati 82-68 as 2.5-point home dogs two games ago before giving UCF everything it wanted on the road in a 79-76 loss as 6.5-point dogs last time out.

Now the Sun Devils want revenge on their biggest rivals in the Arizona Wildcats.  They only lost 89-82 as 21.5-point dogs at Arizona in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching a whopping 14.5 points at home in the rematch.

Arizona is 'fat and happy' off a 86-83 road win at BYU that kept their perfect 21-0 season alive.  Having already beaten ASU just a few weeks ago, the Wildcats won't be all that motivated to do it again.  Asking them to go on the road and win by 15-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on SMU/Louisville OVER 161.5

The Louisville Cardinals just got back one of their best players in Mikel Brown Jr. (16.1 PPG) from injury after missing eight games.  They are much more explosive offensively with him in the lineup than without him.

The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team ranking 67th in adjusted tempo, 12th in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 86.0 points per game on the season and 91.6 points per game at home and have yet to play an OT game.

SMU ranks 121st in adjusted tempo, 46th in average length of offensive possession and 18th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 87.3 points per game this season.  SMU has been off for a week and will be fresh and ready to run with Louisville, which has also had the last four days off.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -2

IPFW is 9-2 at home this season.  The Mastadons are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to Oakland, which may be the best team in the Horizon League.  They beat Robert Morris 79-74 on the road during this stretch.

Robert Morris played its last three games at home and now hits the road where it is 5-6 SU this season.  The Colonials are at a severe rest disadvantage playing their 4th game in 10 days, while the Mastadons will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.  Bet IPFW Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Akron OVER 165.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 32nd in adjusted tempo, 28th in average length of offensive possession, 22nd in adjusted offense and just 157th in adjusted defense.  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage and are an elite offensive team, in fact one of the best offensive teams in the country.

The Zips are scoring 92.6 points per game overall and 97.5 points per game at home despite not playing a single OT game all season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all home games this season combining with their opponents to average 170.3 points per game in their 11 home games.

Kent State is an elite offensive team as well scoring 89.2 points per game this season.  The Golden Flashes also like to play fast ranking 26th in adjusted tempo.  They rank 116th in adjusted offense and just 204th in adjusted defense.  This game has shootout written all over it tonight in a game that will see a ton of possessions and elite offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on William & Mary/Elon OVER 166.5

William & Mary is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Tribe rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession.  The Tribe went for 167 combined points with Charleston, 186 with NC A&T and 171 with Hofstra in recent conference games.

Elon is 13-6 OVER in all games and 7-2 OVER in home games this season.  What makes the Phoenix an OVER team is that they are great offensively ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible defensively ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Both teams have put up similar numbers offensively this season.  The Tribe are averaging 83.6 points per game while the Phoenix are averaging 83.2 points per game.  Elon is coming off two poor shooting performances in a row, but will get right tonight and hang a big number on this Tribe defense.  This game will see a ton of possessions with offense winning out over defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/UMKC OVER 161

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 17-2 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 17 of their last 19 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 363rd in adjusted defense.  This total of 161 is very short for a game involving Denver.

UMKC likes to play fast ranking 87th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Roos are also a terrible defensive team ranking 321st in adjusted defense, so there won't be many stops here.  The OVER is 8-2 in UMKC's last 10 games overall, and the Roos and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in six of their last nine games overall.

Denver beat UMKC 87-74 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  Amazingly, it got to 161 despite UMKC shooting just 4-of-21 (19%) from 3 while Denver shot just 46.8% overall and 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3.  I have to think UMKC will shoot much better in the rematch at home and this game will easily top 161 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW +2

IPFW is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and playing its best basketball of the season.  The Mastadons are 9-1 SU at home this season.  They want revenge from a 101-92 road loss at Oakland in their first meeting this season.  Oakland shot an unsustainable 53% from teh field and 44.8% from 3 in that first meeting.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden Grizzlies, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming in.  They won't be that motivated to beat IFPW again.  The Mastadons have a huge rest advantage here with a full week off prior to this game to rest and prepare for revenge.  Oakland will be playing its 7th game in 18 days.  Bet IPFW Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas/Auburn OVER 155.5

Auburn is 12-8 OVER in all games this season going for 155 or more combined points in 14 of its 20 games this season.  The Tigers rank 14th in adjusted offense but just 64th in adjusted defense.

Texas is 12-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Longhorns and their opponents have combined for at least 154 points in 12 of their last 16 games overall.  They rank 9th in adjusted offense and just 99th in adjusted defense.  This total of 155.5 is too low for a game involving Texas and Auburn right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Joe's -3

Loyola-Chicago is one of the worst teams in the country and oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust for just how bad they are.  The Ramblers are 5-16 SU & 5-16 ATS in all games this season.  They have lost seven straight overall coming into this one, yet here they are again getting respect as only 3-point underdogs to St. Joe's.

The St. Joe's Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes four outright upset wins as underdogs as this team has been grossly undervalued.  The lone loss came by 7 at VCU as 14.5-point dogs, and VCU is one of the best teams in the conference.

The Hawks beat St. Bonaventure, Dayton and Duquesne during this stretch.  The Ramblers went 0-3 against those same three teams losing to St. Bonaventure by 14, Dayton by 27 and Duquesne by 12.  Bet St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMass/Miami Ohio OVER 164.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 94.2 points per game this season.  They rank 35th in adjusted tempo, 69th in adjusted offense and 141st in adjusted defense.  

The Redhawks are 13-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 164.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Miami Ohio right now.

UMass plays even faster, ranking 22nd in adjusted tempo this season.  The Minutemen are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall including 172 combined points with Bowling Green at the end of regulation, 169 with Ohio, 167 with Western Michigan and 166 with Toledo. This total is short for UMass right now, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Providence +15.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 19-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 7-1 in games decided by 5 points or less and OT games this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.  And they needed OT to beat Villanova 75-67 as 11.5-point home favorites over the weekend.

Providence wants revenge from that 103-98 (OT) home loss to UConn as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting on January 7th just three weeks ago.  The Friars are much better than their 9-11 record would indicate as they have had poor luck in close games.  They are 0-4 in OT games this season and 3-8 in games decided by single-digits this season, meaning they've only lost three times all season by double-digits, and only one of those came by more than 13 points.  Bet Providence Tuesday.

20* Nebraska/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan -10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Michigan.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming into this one.  I think they've just been going through the motions a little bit, but they will certainly get up for this game against unbeaten Nebraska and put their best foot forward at home tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Nebraska after a 20-0 start which has included a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six games overall.  They had huge comeback wins in the 2H in their at Indiana and at Minnesota recently.  But this will easily be their toughest test of the season.

Both Braden Frager (12.2 PPG) and Ugnius Jarusevicius (7.0 PPG) are questionable to play for Nebraska tonight after both sat out last game.  The Huskers aren't a very deep team as it is, and the Wolverines will test their tired legs.

Michigan ranks 11th in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession, 7th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.  They play at a break-neck pace and do so very efficiently.  That's why I'm willing to lay this big number with the Wolverines.  Bet Michigan Tuesday.

20* Arizona/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on BYU +1.5

Arizona (20-0) is one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the country.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to, and added pressure with each game to keep that unbeaten record.  It comes to an end tonight.

Arizona has only played four true road games all season.  Three of them came against Big 12 bottom feeders in UCF, TCU and Utah.  This trip to BYU will be by far their toughest test of the season.

BYU is 17-2 this season with its only losses both coming on the road at UConn by 2 and at Texas Tech.  The Cougars are 9-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 26.4 points per game.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a BYU home game all season, and their home-court advantage is not being factored into this line enough.

BYU has the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  Arizona will be playing its 3rd game in 6 days and its 7th game in 20 days.  Bet BYU Monday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -9.5

Arkansas is 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs before crushing Vanderbilt 93-68 as 1.5-point dogs in their last home games.  They are outscoring opponents by 24 points per game at home this season.

LSU is one of the worst teams in the SEC.  The Tigers are 1-5 in SEC play with their lone win coming at home over Missouri.  They lost by 18 at Florida, by 11 at Vanderbilt and by 3 at Texas A&M in their three SEC road games.  This has double-digit blowout written all over it for the Razorbacks tonight.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +1

I love the spot for Texas Tech today.  The Red Raiders want revenge from a 69-65 road loss at Houston on January 6th earlier this month.  They already proved they could hang with the Cougars on the highway, and now they get them in Lubbock, one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Texas Tech is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.2 points per game.  That includes a 84-71 win over BYU in their last home games, and BYU is one of the best teams in the country.

Houston has only played two true road games all season and they came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Baylor and Cincinnati.  This will be their toughest test of the season, and they should not be favored on the road here.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova +10.5

The UConn Huskies are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 18-1 this season, but they have just barely been getting bye in Big East play.  They have gone 6-1 in games decided by 5 points or less this season.

A lot of those have come recently as the Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Providence as 9.5-point favorites, only beat DePaul by 12 as 19.5-point home favorites, only beat Seton Hall by 5 as 6.5-point road favorites and beat Georgetown by 2 as 11.5-point road favorites.  Georgetown is winless in conference play this season.

Now they take a big step up in class against Villanova, one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Wildcats are 15-4 SU & 12-7 ATS this season.  Three of their four losses came by 7 points or fewer to BYU by 5, Creighton by 4 and St. John's by 7.  Their only blowout loss came to Michigan, which might be the best team in the country.  Asking UConn to win this game by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +6

The Nebraska Cornhuskers aren't going to win every game this season.  The Huskers have been a great story as one of three remaining unbeaten teams at 19-0 this season.  But with that 19-0 record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Huskers.  They have a huge game on deck with Michigan on Tuesday that they could be looking ahead to.  They have two key players questionable in G Frager (12.2 PPG) and F Jarusevicius (7.0 PPG).  They already go with a very short rotation.

Minnesota has been no pushover this season, especially at home.  The Golden Gophers are 9-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points.  So they haven't lost at home by this kind of margin all season.  They upset Iowa and Indiana already at home this season.

Minnesota is highly motivated off four consecutive narrow losses by 1 to USC at home, by 3 to Wisconsin at home, by 10 at Illinois as 15.5-point dogs and by 8 at Ohio State in OT as 7.5-point dogs.  They can really help out their NCAA Tournament resume with an upset win over Nebraska here today.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State/CS-Fullerton OVER 159.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team due to the pace they play at.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They have gone for 159 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Long Beach State ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo and 256th in adjusted defense.  The Beach have really been an OVER team all season.  They are 13-4 OVER in their 17 lined games this season, and they have gone for at least 159 combined points in seven of their last 13 games, including 154 or more in nine of them.  Both teams will get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 16-1 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 361st in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

North Dakota State is 140th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense.  The Bison will gladly get into a shootout with Denver.  They have scored at least 76 points in 16 of their 21 games this season.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Memphis/Tulsa OVER 153.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 30th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in eight of their last 11 games.  This total of 153.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

Memphis is coming off a 95-69 win over UTSA for 164 combined points.  The Tigers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall also combining for 167 points with Florida Atlantic, a team that profiles similarly to Tulsa.  Both teams rank in the Top 143 in tempo so there will be plenty of possessions to get this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Maryland +19

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Maryland and 'sell high' on Illinois tonight.  The Terrapins are 8-10 this season and taking some time under Buzz Williams to improve.  But I've seen enough from them in recent games to know they can stay within this inflated number at Illinois.

The Terrapins are coming off a 96-73 home win over Penn State as 1.5-point favorites.  They also were competitive in a 12-point loss at UCLA as 13.5-point dogs recently.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so they are fresh and ready to give the Fighting Illini a run for their money tonight.

The Fighting Illini have gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  But they are coming off a lackluster 77-67 home win as 15.5-point favorites against Minnesota.  They have a huge game on deck against Purdue on Saturday that they could easily be looking ahead to.

The Fighting Illini are a tired team playing their 4th game in 11 days.  They are also a beat up team as they will be without 2nd-leading scorer Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG) tonight, plus 3rd-leading scorer Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury.  Asking the Fighting Illini to win by 20-plus points to beat us in their current state is asking too much.  Bet Maryland Wednesday.

20* Vanderbilt/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas ML -120

Arkansas is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs to highlight their best home wins.  They can certainly handle Vanderbilt tonight.

The Commodores have been exposed after jumping out to a 16-0 start this season against a soft schedule.  They have lost their last two games, getting blown out 80-64 as 4.5-point favorites at Texas and falling 98-94 at home to Florida.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days and I question how much they have left in the tank tonight.  Bet Arkansas on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +18.5

Iowa ranks 344th in adjusted tempo and 343rd in average length of offensive possession.  Playing at a snail's pace allows them to be competitive with good teams, but also to allow bad teams to be competitive with them.  It's a profile that has a team like Iowa always playing to their level of competition.

Rutgers plays a similar style ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in average length of offensive possession. The Scarlet Knights are in no hurry, either, so this game won't see very many possessions at all.  That's going to make it tough for Iowa to get margin and win this game by 19 points or more, which is what it will take to beat us.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games and playing their best basketball of the season.  They upset both Northwestern and Oregon, only lost by 7 at home to Ohio State as 9.5-point dogs and by 9 at Wisconsin as 15.5-point dogs.

The Hawkeyes are in a tough spot here playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days.  After coming up short at Purdue 79-72, they came back and upset Indiana 74-57 on the road.  That's a struggling Hoosiers team that the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect for beating handily.  It sets them up for a letdown spot here at home.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Kent State OVER 167

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.9 points per game this season.  They rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.

Kent State plays even faster, ranking 21st in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and just 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes really profile as an OVER team.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 168 points in all four games.  

Kent State is 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.2 points per game and I could see both teams getting into the 90's tonight.  This total of 167 is actually pretty short for a game involving these two teams given their profiles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida State/Miami OVER 165.5

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 87th in adjusted tempo, 50th in average length of offensive possession and 48th in adjusted offense.  Miami is 10-1 OVER in all home games this season scoring 95.2 points per game at home.

The Hurricanes will likely hang 100 on the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  The Seminoles rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession, so they really want to get up and down.  They rank 96th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense, which is really poor for a Power 4 team.  They recently allowed 91 points to Duke, 113 to NC State and 94 to Syracuse in three of their last four games which all saw 178 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -4

I love the spot for IPFW today.  The Mastadons will be out for revenge from a 77-55 road loss at Milwaukee on December 29th.  That was a rare poor performance by them as they shot 36.2% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range.  They have still gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, and I expect them to have their revenge in the rematch here.

They have the rest advantage after having the last week off.  Milwaukee just lost 73-60 at home to Oakland on Thursday and has just two days to get ready.  The Panthers have been terrible since that win over IPFW, going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are also without their best player in Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG) due to injury.  Bet IPFW Sunday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Long Beach State/Northridge OVER 157

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 11-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving Northridge.

Long Beach State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Beach and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving the Beach as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF +9.5

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Arizona is on upset alert today on the road against a UCF team that has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

It's a huge letdown spot for Arizona, which is coming off a lackluster 79-72 home win over rival Arizona State as 21.5-point favorites.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  That includes 2-0 in Big 12 play with an upset win over Kansas and a win over Cincinnati.  They followed up that win over Cincinnati with a 82-73 road win at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs.  They are licking their chops at this opportunity to take down the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Ivy League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cornell/Yale OVER 175

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in average length of offensive possession, 64th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage offense, 351st in adjusted defense and 353rd in effective FG percentage defense.

The Big Red are 10-3 OVER in all games this season including 7-2 OVER in road games.  They have gone for 173 or more combined points in 12 of their 15 games this season, so this total of 175 isn't even that large for a game involving Cornell.

Yale is an elite offensive team ranking 38th in adjusted offense.  The Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team ranking 240th in adjusted defense.  This game sets up for a great OVER bet.  These teams combined for 191 and 180 points in their two regular season meetings last year.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Buffalo/Miami Ohio OVER 159.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.3 points per game this season and they've only played one OT game.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving Miami Ohio.

Buffalo profiles as an OVER team with a great offense that ranks 103rd in adjusted offense and a terrible defense at 306th in adjusted defense.  The Bulls are 9-6 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 79.9 points per game and haven't played an OT game all season.  The Bulls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 168 combined points with Kent State and 171 with Ohio in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Fullerton/UC-Davis OVER 167.5

Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team scoring 86.7 points per game and allowing 85.6 points per game this season.  They still haven't played an OT game, either.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 4th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 240th in adjusted defense and 340th in effective FG percentage (56.4%) defense as well.

UC-Davis is 9-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Aggies are scoring 81.0 points per game and also have not played an OT game yet.  UC-Davis is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 169 or more combined points in 3 of their last 5 games, and 160 or more in six straight.  The Aggies have scored at least 81 points in six consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Elon/Northeastern OVER 160

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 76th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in five of their last six games overall, and 160 or more in 13 of their 17 games this season.

Northeastern ranks 94th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Huskies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 159 or more combined points in all seven games, and 162 or more in six of them.  This total of 160 is too short for a game involving the Huskies and Phoenix.

In fact, we saw that play out already once this season with Elon winning 103-91 over Northeastern on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  That meeting saw 194 combined points, so we have a lot of room to spare in cashing this OVER 160 in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/IU Indy OVER 158.5

IU Indy ranks 1st in the entire country in adjusted tempo.  They force their opponents to play at a break-neck pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving IU Indy.  In fact, it's their 2nd-lowest total of the entire season.  There's clearly value with the OVER.

Robert Morris is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 153 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Colonials are a solid offensive team ranking 151st in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 257th in adjusted defense.  IU Indy is even worse on defense, ranking 357th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +9.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northwestern after a 0-5 start in Big Ten play and 'sell high' on Illinois after a 4-1 start in Big Ten play.  Asking the Fighting Illini to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Northwestern could easily be 4-1 instead of 0-5 in Big Ten play.  Four of their losses have come by a combined 22 points, and none of those came by more than 10 points.  Illinois has played two true road games all season winning by 8 at Ohio State and by 6 at Iowa.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Northwestern pulled off the outright upset in each of the last two meetings in Evanston.  The Wildcats haven't lost a home game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on ECU/USF OVER 156.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 18th in average length of offensive possession.  They are scoring 91.1 points per game on the season and allowing 79.8 points per game.  11 of their 16 games this season have seen 156 or more combined points.

East Carolina will have no problem getting up and down with the Bulls.  The Pirates rank 92nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and coming off a 87-85 loss to UAB for 172 combined points.  UAB is a team that profiles similarly to USF.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Missouri OVER 153

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 14 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 153 is very low for a game involving Auburn.

Auburn ranks 9th in the country in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 87.5 points per game overall.  Missouri ranks 48th in adjusted offense while averaging 81.7 points per game overall, including 89.8 points per game at home.  Both teams prefer to play fast on offense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +6.5

UConn is a tired team right now which is a big reason the Huskies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They failed to cover in a home win over Marquette, needed OT to beat Providence as double-digit favorites on the road, and were flat in a 12-point home win over DePaul as 19.5-point favorites.

Now the Huskies will be playing their 4th game in 10 days tonight and have to hit the road again to take on a very gritty, tough Seton Hall team.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and this is a game they could easily lose outright.

Seton Hall is one of the most improved teams in the country this season going 14-2 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their two losses came by 2 points to USC and by 8 to Villanova.  They have opened 4-1 in Big East play with three road wins already.  Now they are home where they are 8-1 SU this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Top 10 UConn coming to town.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Buffalo OVER 162.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 249th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.

Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Bulls rank 100th in adjusted offense and 298th in adjusted defense.  Like Kent State, the Bulls are much better on offense than they are on defense, making this a perfect match for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 169.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Arkansas visits Auburn.  This game has the makings of one of the biggest shootouts of the day, and it's a night game on National TV on ESPN so both teams will be extra amped for it.

Auburn is 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers have an elite offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defenses in the SEC ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 170 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, including 204 with Georgia and 178 with Texas A&M in their last two.

Arkansas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall going for 177 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Razorbacks rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  Calipari has the Razorbacks playing efficient offense at a break-neck pace this season.  

The Razorbacks have scored 85 or more points in six consecutive games, including against some very good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Houston, Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They are scoring on everyone, and they will hang a big number on this poor Auburn defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota OVER 172.5

Denver is a perfect 15-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 12 lined games.  This total of 172.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 80th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 362nd in adjusted defense.  They are the 4th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota is the perfect OVER partner for Denver.  The Coyotes rank 43rd in adjusted tempo this season and 341st in adjusted defense.  They play fast and they play no defense.

South Dakota is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 185 combined points with St. Thomas, 182 with Kansas State, 182 with Prairie View, 185 with Wyoming and 176 with Northern Colorado.  This total of 172.5 is also short in a game involving the Coyotes right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on DePaul +19.5

This is a terrible spot for the UConn Huskies.  They are coming off a 103-98 (OT) road win at Providence on Wednesday.  They have had just two days to recover, and they will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here as well.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake hosting DePaul today.

The Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS this season, and I really like what they have done lately.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with consecutive home wins over Xavier and Georgetown, as well as a 5-point road loss at Villanova as 12.5-point dogs in their last three games.

The lone non-cover during this 7-game stretch came in a 72-54 home loss to UConn on December 21st as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here just three weeks later.  The Huskies won't be motivated at all to beat this team by margin again.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Bowling Green OVER 164.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 18th in adjusted offense and just 196th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.5 points per game this season.

Bowling Green is a dead nuts OVER team as well with an elite offense.  The Falcons rank 157th in adjusted tempo and 125th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 89.3 points per game. and they have gone for 176 or more combined points with their opponents in each of their last four games coming in.  

That includes a 96-93 loss to Kent State for 189 combined points last time out, a team that profiles very similarly to Akron with an elite offense and terrible defense that plays fast.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Zips and Falcons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160.5

Denver is a perfect 14-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 11 lined games.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 82nd in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 361st in adjusted defense.  They are the 5th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is a perfect 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 159 or more combined points in four of those five games.  That includes 175 combined points with Milwaukee and 170 combined points with Arizona.

The Jackrabbits rank 160th in adjusted offense but just 234th in adjusted defense.  Both teams also rank in the Top 160 in adjusted tempo.  This game figures to be yet another shootout involving the Pioneers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Baylor OVER 154

Baylor is 8-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER at home.  What makes the Bears such a dead nuts OVER team is that they rank 12th in adjusted offense but just 96th in adjusted defense.  They are also 116th in adjusted tempo.

The Bears are averaging 93.1 points per game this season including 102.9 points per game at home and haven't played an OT game all season.  They will get their points, but they will also give up a ton, especially tonight.

Iowa State is playing as fast as they ever have under T.J. Otzelberger and it has made a big difference for them.  They are an elite team, so more possessions is better for them.  They rank 127th in adjusted tempo and 55th in average length of offensive possession.

Iowa State is scoring 89.6 points per game and ranks 5th in adjusted offense.  The Cyclones are 2nd in effective FG percentage (60.7%) and 2nd in 3-point percentage (41.9%).  They will light up this weak Baylor defense tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/Kent State OVER 155.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes rank 20th in adjusted tempo, 44th in average length of offensive possession, 122nd in adjusted offense and just 191st in adjusted defense.  They are 91st in effective FG percentage (53.7%) on offense and 284th (54.1%) on defense.

Bowling Green also likes to play faster ranking 144th in adjusted tempo.  The Mean Green rank 27th in average length of defensive possession at 16.1 seconds allowing opponents to get shots up fast, which is something that will play right into Kent State's hands.

Bowling Green's last three games have been very high-scoring going for 201 combined points with UMass in OT in a game that was tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points.  They went for 176 combined points with Miami Ohio and 191 with Siena Heights.

Kent State is 8-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 11 of their 14 games this season.  This total of 155.5 is way too low for a game involving Kent State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +9.5

The Florida Gators are overrated after winning the national title last season.  They lost all their star guards off that team and just aren't nearly as good this season because of it.  They are 9-5 SU & 4-10 ATS this season, consistently laying too many points.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Georgia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and vastly improved this season.  The Bulldogs are off to a 13-1 start with their lone loss coming to Clemson in OT.  In their lone road true game this season, they crushed Florida State 107-73.  Florida beat Florida sState 78-76 at home to give these teams a common opponent.

Former Florida head coach Mike White is out to get his former team, and these games tend to go down to the wire.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer.  This number is too big tonight as the Bulldogs are lacking the respect they deserve and will earn it tonight.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Miami Ohio OVER 174

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession, 12th in adjusted offense and just 208th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 97.1 points per game this season.

Miami Ohio is also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 43rd in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession, 73rd in adjusted offense and just 174th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.9 points per game this season.

This game will be played at a break-neck pace and will feature elite offense and poor defense on both ends.  The Redhawks rank 8th in effective FG percentage (60%) and 6th in 3-point shooting (41%).  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage (60.8%) and 7th in 3-point percentage (40.6%).  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -2

Nebraska is off to a 13-0 start this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Huskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that will be on display tonight as they host Michigan State in their Big Ten home opener.

The Huskers have won 17 straight games dating back to the NIT last season.  They went on the road and upset Illinois 83-80 as 9-point dogs which followed up their 90-60 home win over Wisconsin as 2.5-point favorites to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has only played one true road game all season, and it was a lackluster 76-72 road win at Penn State as 12.5-point favorites.  The Spartans will be in over their heads here in what will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMKC/Denver OVER 157.5

Denver is a perfect 12-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last nine lined games.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 98th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 360th in adjusted defense.  They are the 6th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

UMKC lights to push the pace ranking 91st in adjusted tempo which will help us cash this OVER ticket.  The Roos have gone for 177, 156, 170 and 169 combined points in their last four games coming into this one.  This has shootout written all over it today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Fullerton/SMU OVER 173.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 118th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 33rd in adjusted offense and just 78th in adjusted defense.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including a 99-82 home win over Central Arkansas last time out for 181 combined points.  They have scored at least 87 points in nine of their 12 games this season.

What makes CS-Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is playing at a break-neck pace, ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Titans are also better offensively than they are defensively, ranking 240th in adjusted defense.

Fullerton is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Titans and their opponents have combined for at least 182 points in six of their last nine games overall.  So this total of 173.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Fullerton.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Illinois/Missouri FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 154

Illinois is an elite offensive team ranking 4th in adjusted offense this season.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a pair of Big Ten shootouts beating Ohio State 88-80 for 168 combined points and losing 83-80 to Nebraska for 163 combined points.  This total of 154 is too short for a game involving Illinois right now.

Missouri ranks 29th in adjusted offense and 105th in adjusted defense to profile as more of an OVER team.  That's especially the case when you factor in Missouri ranking 60th in average length of offensive possession, so the Tigers like to push the pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Missouri and Illinois with 151 or more combined points in all five meetings, and 157 or more in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/Tulsa OVER 163.5

Denver is a perfect 11-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last eight lined games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 364th in adjusted defense.  They are the second-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in four of their last five games.  Tulsa is an elite offensive team ranking 40th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team at 148th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/Northern Colorado OVER 162

Denver is a perfect 10-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last seven lines games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 365th in adjusted defense.  They are the single-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Northern Colorado and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in five of its last seven games overall.  That includes a 101-90 loss to Texas Tech last time out for 191 combined points.

The Bears profile similarly to the Pioneers in that they rank 114th in adjusted offense and 225th in adjusted defense.  They are a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  Both teams should have their way offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oakland/Northern Kentucky OVER 163

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 28th in adjusted tempo, 78th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  Oakland is 8-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 164 or more combined points in seven of their 10 lined games.

Northern Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team ranking 89th in adjusted tempo.  The Norse are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall finishing with 175 combined points with Cleveland State and 156 in their other two games.

Oakland games are averaging 169.4 combined points per game this season.  Northern Kentucky games are averaging 159.6 combined points per game.  Neither team has even played an OT game this season.  This total of 163 is too short for a game involving these two teams, especially with it expected to be close and fouls likely to factor in late.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on FIU/Miami OVER 158

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 71st in adjusted tempo, 54th in average length of offensive possession, 24th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.  They are an elite offensive team that has scored at least 82 points in seven of their 10 games this season.

Florida International plays even faster, ranking 38th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession.  The Panthers are also a solid shooting team ranking 75th in 3-point percentage at 36.4%.

Against teams that profile similar to Miami, FIU lost 96-66 to Nebraska for 162 combined points, 98-81 to LSU for 179 combined points and beat Florida Gulf Coast 89-83 for 172 combined points.  This total of 158 is too short for a game involving these two teams that both like to push the tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Murray State OVER 173.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 26th in average length of offensive possession, 15th in adjusted offense and 154th in adjusted defense.  The Zips are 6-3 OVER in their nine lined games and are scoring 95.4 points per game this season.

Murray State is a dead nuts OVER team as well.  The Racers are living up to their nicknames, ranking 35th in adjusted tempo and 65th in average length of offensive possession.  They profile similarly to Akron in that they are much better on offense (82nd) than they are on defense (170th).  They are scoring 88 points per game on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 164

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Texas A&M.  This total of 164 is too short given the styles of both teams.

SMU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 47th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 89.4 points per game on 48.8% shooting and 33.9% from 3-point range.

Texas A&M ranks 54th in adjusted tempo, 16th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Aggies are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 167 or more combined points three times.  They are scoring 92.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting and 38.1% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Tulane OVER 163.5

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 44th in the country in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 217th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 168th.

Akron is 6-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 96.2 points per game.  They have topped this total of 163.5 with their opponents in six of eight games against D-1 competition.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 181 points with Yale, 186 with Milwaukee and 174 with Bucknell.

Tulane is also much better on offense (101st) than it is on defense (314th).  The Green Wave have played a lot of slow-paced teams this season so this will be a shock to the system as Akron pushes 100 after scoring 94 or more points in five consecutive games and seven of its last eight overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SMU/Vanderbilt CBB No-Brainer on OVER 166.5

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Vanderbilt.  This total of 166.5 is too short given the styles of both teams.

Vanderbilt ranks 39th in adjusted tempo, 32nd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in offensive efficiency in the entire country.  They put up 96 points on one of the best defenses in the country in St. Mary's last time out and are averaging 97.9 points per game on 52.1% shooting including 40.2% from 3-point range on the season.

SMU ranks 50th in adjusted tempo, 13th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 92.0 points per game on 49.6% shooting and 36.1% from 3-point range.  They have the firepower to keep up with Vanderbilt in an up-tempo shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Portland State/South Dakota OVER 158.5

This is a very low total for a game involving South Dakota.  The Coyotes rank 34th in adjusted tempo and 327th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against Air Force, a dead nuts under team that plays slow and has a terrible offense.

Portland State ranks 47th in adjusted tempo and 146th in adjusted defense.  So this game will be played with a lot of possessions as these teams are both Top 50 in tempo, and there won't be much defense being played at all, especially from South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* UConn/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 144

This game will be played at a snail's pace with elite defense.  UConn ranks 313th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  Kansas ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.

Kansas will be without leading scorer Darryn Peterson (21.5 PPG) tonight and has had to rely even more on defense without him.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 144 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 133 or fewer in four of them.

UConn is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall despite playing two great teams who both like to play fast.  They went for 135 combined points with Illinois and 138 with Arizona while also going for 121 with Bryant.  This total of 144 has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go.  Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC.  The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State.  The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off.  This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

20* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/SMU OVER 172.5

SMU looks like an offensive wagon this season with three double-digit scorers back from a team that won 24 games in Andy Enfield's first season last year.  The Mustangs are 5-0 led by an offense that is averaging 92.0 points per game on 50.3% shooting and 37.8% from 3-point range.

The Mustangs have scored at least 87 points in four of their five games.  The three returning starters are all off to great starts in Boopie Miller (20.0 PPG, 7.8 APG), BJ Edwards (14.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Samet Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG).  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (18.6 PPG) combines with Miller to form one of the best backcourts in the country.  Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (13.8 PPG) has a great inside-out game.

The Mustangs want to run ranking 18th in the country in average length of offensive possession at 14.5 seconds.  They are 80th in adjusted tempo.  Now they face an Arkansas State team that also wants to run under first-year head coach Ryan Pannone, who engineered Alabama's Top 5 offense for Nate Oats each of the past two seasons.

The Red Wolves are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season while ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 20th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They even got St. Mary's to run with them last time out in a game that went over the total by 8 points despite them shooting just 37.7% from the field.  They will find more holes in this SMU defense to exploit as they are pretty lackluster on that end of the court allowing 85 points to Butler and 91 to Murray State.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cal Poly/Utah OVER 167

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted tempo this season despite playing four of their first five games on the road.  They are going to play their style no matter the venue, which is as fast as possible getting a shot up every 14.7 seconds thus far.  

They also shoot a ton of 3-pointers averaging 31.4 attempts per game and allow a ton of 3-pointers with opponents averaging 32.6 attempts per game.  That leads to more fast breaks and more scoring with so many 3-pointers hoisted and long rebounds.

Utah also likes to play fast and is a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  The Utes rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 144th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 77.8 points per game.  Cal Poly is allowing 85.4 points per game this season.

Utah is 5-0 OVER in all games this season as oddsmakers just haven't been able to set their totals high enough.  Cal Poly is 2-0 OVER in its last two games combining for 172 points with Colorado State and 172 with Montana.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -4.5

I like the fact that Kentucky already has a loss this season so we are getting the Wildcats at a discount.  They lost on the road 96-88 as 6-point dogs at Louisville, one of the best teams in the country.

The Wildcats responded with a 99-53 win over Eastern Illinois easily covering as 35.5-point favorites.  Now they will take down this overrated, poor shooting Michigan State team that is 3-0 thanks to three home games to open the season.  This game will be played on a neutral at Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State has not been impressive at all.  The Spartans beat Colgate 80-69 as 22-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Colgate team that suffered a bad loss to Northwestern at home, and barely beat Drexel by 7 and Siena by 3.  They beat Arkansas 69-66 as 2.5-point home favorites.  That's an Arkansas team that nearly lost outright to Samford 79-75 at home.  And they beat San Jose State 79-60 as 24-point favorites.  That's a 1-3 San Jose State team whose only win came against Bethesda.

The problem all season for the Spartans is going to be a lack of shooting as they are 256th in effective FG percentage (47.2%) and 352nd in 3-point percentage (21.7%) to this point despite the soft schedule.  They face an elite Kentucky offense that is already 8th in offensive efficiency, 18th in effective FG percentage (59.7%) and 1st in 2-point percentage (66.2%).  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

20* Florida/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +10.5

The Florida Gators are grossly overvalued this season after winning the National Championship last season.  They lost all their best guards from that team that led them to the title.  And they are failing to live up to expectations thus far.

The Gators are 2-1 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright to Arizona as 3.5-point favorites, failed to cover as 43.5-point favorites against North Florida, and escaped with a 2-point win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites here against Miami.

The Hurricanes will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They had the money to spend and did so in bringing in Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, Indiana transfer Malik Reneau and New Mexico transfer Tru Washington.  5-star recruit Shelton Henderson won gold with USA U-18 and flipped from Duke to Miami.

The Hurricanes are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season.  They opened with a 17-point win over Jacksonville as 19-point favorites to barely miss the cover.  They blasted Bethune-Cookman by 40 as 16.5-point favorites and covered in a 41-point win over Stetson as 34.5-point favorites.  That's the same Bethune-Cookman team that took Auburn to OT and only lost by 9 at Dayton.

Reneau (21.3 PPG), Donaldson (16.3 PPG, 6.0 APG), Washington (14.0 PPG) and Henderson (12.3 PPG) have bene awesome thus far and the chemistry is clearly there already.  The Hurricanes will give the Gators a run for their money tonight.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +20

This is a fade of Purdue in a horrific spot.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 87-80 upset road win at Alabama.  They have Memphis on deck.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them, and I don't expect them to put forth their best effort today.

This will be Akron's 'national championship' game with the opportunity to face a Power 4 team in-state.  And the Zips brought back three key players from last season who are leading the team this season.  Amari Lyles (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Shammah Scott (14.3 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Tavari Johnson (13.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) are three seniors and won't be phased by this road atmosphere.

Akron is 3-0 this season beating James Madison by 14 and Princeton by 35 at home.  That's the same Princeton team that only lost by 19 at Kansas as 22.5-point dogs last time out.  Purdue only beat Oakland by 10 in its last home game.  That's the same Oakland team that lost by 43 to Michigan and by 33 to Houston.  Bet Akron Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UMKC/Texas OVER 156

UMKC went from one of the slowest teams in the country to one of the fastest this season.  That big change in philosophy has their totals listed too low here early in the season.

UMKC lost 101-78 at Southern Illinois for 179 combined points with a 141.5-point total.  UMKC lost 105-91 at home to Iona for 196 combined points with a 156-point total.  Both totals went over by basically 40 points, and this one won't be close either.

Texas will score 100 points here just like Southern Illinois and Iona did.  The Longhorns nearly got to 100 in their last two games scoring 97 against Lafayette and 93 against Fairleigh Dickinson.  They want to play fast too and will welcome it from UMKC at home today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arizona/UCLA CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2.5

This is a play against UCLA.  The Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Their results are shocking to this point.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point home favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point home favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point home favorites.  They have failed the cover the spread by a combined 52 points in their first three games.

Arizona beat defending national champ Florida 93-87 in its opener to prove it will be a contender this season.  The Wildcats followed it up with blowout wins of Utah Tech by 26 and Northern Arizona by 35.  They will make easy work of this overmatched UCLA team tonight.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Weber State/Utah State OVER 155

Utah State is all offense and no defense.  The Aggies ranked 2nd in the MWC averaging 79.9 PPG last season and 1st in assists (17.1 APG).  They are fun to watch on offense, but not very good on defense.  That was on display in their 80-77 win over VCU last time out.  That's a rebuilding VCU team with a first-year head coach who had to replace all five starters who all averaged at least 9.7 PPG last season, and they allowed 77 points to the Rams.

Weber State is coming off a 92-89 (OT) loss at Utah in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for 168 combined points.  The Wildcats have a ton of sharp shooters with six players averaging double-digits scoring through two games.

Weber State likes to play fast ranking 88th in average length of offensive possession.  The Aggies will welcome the up-tempo style in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTRGV +18

UTRGV is catching too many points tonight against Boise State.  The Vaqueros went 16-15 in Kahil Fennell's first season last year and look like one of the more improved teams in the country this season.

UTRGV opened with a 96-81 loss at Baylor as 24.5-point dogs.  That's a Baylor team that went on to cover in a 78-69 win as 6-point favorites over a solid Washington team.  The Vaqueros went on to rout Southern Utah 95-72 as 1.5-point road favorites last time out, covering the spread by 21.5 points.  That's a Southern Utah team that only lost by 17 at Arizona State in their opener.

Boise State tipped its hand with just how much a rebuilding year this is going to be with a shocking 79-78 loss to Hawaii Pacific in the opener.  A 101-77 win over Utah Valley as 11.5-point favorites last time out doesn't ease that fact.  Utah Valley is a rebuilding team of its own that lost four starters including all of its double-digit scorers from last season.

Boise State loses three starters including its two best players in Tyson Degenhard (18.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Alvaro Cardenas (11.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) from last season.  It's going to continue being a rocky ride for the Broncos tonight to open non-conference play.  Bet UTRGV Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +2.5

Virginia Tech will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season after a 13-19 campaign last year including 8-12 in ACC play.  The Hokies return four starters in Tobi Lawal (12.4 PPG, 7.0 RP), Tyler Johnson (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Benn Hammond (5.6 PPG) and Jaden Shutt (7.7 PPG).  They added in UNLV transfer Jailen Bedford, WVU transfer Amani Hansberry and a pair of talented freshmen in Christian Gurdak and Neoklis Avdalas.

The Hokies easily covered as 18.5-point favorites in their opener beating Charleston Southern 98-67.  Lawal led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds and Hansberry had 19 points and 13 boards.  Bedford had 13 points and 5 rebounds, while six other players had at least 6 points in the win.

Kim English has been a major disappointment in his two seasons at Providence.  He went 12-20 last season including 6-14 in Big East play.  He may be in over his head here.  The Friars lose four starters including their top three scorers in Hopkins (17 PPG), Joseph (13.2 PPG) and Pierre (12.3 PPG).  The only returning starter is Corey Floyd Jr. (9.2 PPG).

Providence opened with a lackluster 89-79 home win over Holy Cross a 23.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 13.5 points.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VMI -1.5

VMI is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 15-19 last season.  They improved by 11 wins last season and now have one of the most experienced rosters in the country.  They return nine players who scored at least 3.5 points per game last season.  Five returning players combined to make more than 200 3-point shots last season.

VMI opened with a 122-58 win over Johnson & Wales Charlotte.  Eight players scored at least 9 points in the win.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of a rebuilding Southern Indiana team tonight.

Southern Indiana went 10-20 last season including 5-15 in OVC play.  The Screaming Eagles lose all five starters from that team and return just one player who averaged more than 2.6 points per game last season.  Their 88-58 loss at Butler as 23-point dogs where they shot just 29.2% from the field is a sign of things to come for this team.  Bet VMI Friday.

20* CBB Season Opener on St. John's -26

St. John's is the type of team I don't mind laying big numbers with early in the season. They pressure the opponent for 40 minutes and thus continue to pour it on late in games even when it's a blowout.

That's what Rick Pitino has brought to St. John's is a culture where you out work your opponent for 40 minutes and let the chips fall where they may. And he has turned the Red Storm into a Top 10 preseason team with his results thus far.

Second-leading scorer Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 PPG, 8,1 RPG) is back from last year, and the shooting should be much better with the additions of Joson Sanon (ASU), Ian Jackson (UNC) and Bryce Hopkins (Providence) through the transfer portal.

Quinnipiac lost three starters from last year including a pair of double-digit scorers. I don't see them being able to hang for 40 minutes with the Red Storm as this will likely be their toughest game of the season. Bet St. John's Monday.

20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Georgetown FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 152

We saw NIT OVERs thrive and now we are seeing College Basketball Crown OVERS thrive.  OVERS are 5-3 in the College Basketball Crown Tournament and 6-2 if you bet early.  Defense tends to be optional, and players just play freely in these lesser tournaments.  We got a good early number here on Nebraska/Georgetown OVER 152.

Georgetown beat Washington State 85-82 for 167 combined points in its tournament opener on Monday.  This despite the Hoyas only shooting 40.8% from the field.  The Hoyas have had to go more small ball without their best big man down the stretch, and they are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They rank 117th in adjusted tempo so they like to play fast as well.

Nebraska is coming off a 86-78 win over Arizona State and 164 combined points.  Neither team really lit it up shooting wise, either.  The Huskers also play faster than your average team ranking 149th in adjusted tempo.  We will see more offensive fireworks in the shooter-friendly MGM Grand Garden arena tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Sunday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan State/Auburn UNDER 150

Two elite defensive teams square off in the Elite 8 Sunday when Michigan State takes on Auburn in the South Region final.  This profiles as a defensive battle with points very hard to come by, especially for Michigan State.

The Spartans rank 4th in the country in adjusted defense and have been riding defense and rebounding to the Elite 8.  They have gotten away with just how poor of a shooting team they are, largely due to their soft schedule to this point.  The Spartans rank 318th in 3-point percentage at 31.1% this season.  They rank just 329th in 3-point rate at 32.8%, so at least they know they shouldn't be taking a ton of them.  That also allows them to set their defense with fewer long rebounds.

Auburn ranks 8th in the country in adjusted defense and 11th in effective FG percentage.  The Tigers have great defensive guards across the board, and they have two great defensive big men inside led by Broome and Cardwell.  Nothing will come easy for the Spartans in this one.  I also like the fact that neither team really looks to push the pace as both rank middle of the pack in tempo.

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 25-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 149 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  That includes 143 with Ole Miss and 134 with New Mexico in their last two games coming in.

Auburn has been an UNDER team since the start of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 146 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.