20* Drake/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 151.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-3 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-2 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  It would also be 9-1 without that OT game if you got a good number on the Drake/Bradley game yesterday which we had at 140, but closed 138 and landed 139.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

I love betting UNDERS in winner-take-all games like this MVC Championship Game.  Nerves are rampant, defensive intensity is high and these games just seem to slow down.  I think we're getting extra value on the UNDER after Indiana State shot the lights out yesterday making 57.4% as a team and an unsustainable 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3 against Northern Iowa.  That was the only MVC Tournament game that went way over in this entire tournament.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 3rd meeting this season.  After combining for 167 points in their first meeting in a FT fest, these teams combined for just 142 points in their 2nd meeting.  I expect this 3rd and final meeting to finish in the low 140's as well.

Drake has allowed 75 or fewer points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  That includes an average of 63.7 points per game in its last three games.  Indiana State has allowed 77 or fewer points in seven consecutive games and 11 of its last 12.  I don't expect either team to top 75 points in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 140

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Drake and Bradley, who met in the MVC Tournament Championship Game last year.  Drake won that game 77-51 for just 128 combined points.  They also combined for 134 points four meetings ago, and 141 and 140 points in their first two regular season meetings this season.  These teams met in the regular season finale so familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  They combined to shoot 32-of-33 from the FT line yet still only combined for 140 points.  The 3rd and final meeting here will stay UNDER 140.

Bradley has really stepped up its defense down the stretch allowing 59.0 points per game and 35.3% shooting in its last five games.  Drake showed what it is capable of defensively when focused in its last two games holding Bradley to 66 and Evansville to 58 points. Drake is 6-0 UNDER in its last six March games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 22-8 OVER in all games this season, including 4-0 in their last four with 170 or more combined points in all four.

Tennessee ranks 73rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense.  The Volunteers have their best offensive team of the Rick Barnes era and they are playing much faster this season as a result.  That was on display in their 103-92 win at Kentucky on February 3rd in their first meeting this season for 195 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 18-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5

The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title.  They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result.

Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake.  The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd.  They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too.

Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season.  You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Northern Iowa/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 147.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Each of the last two meetings between Indiana State and Northern Iowa went UNDER the total in the regular season.  Indiana State won 80-62 on the road for 142 combined points in their final meeting last season, and the Sycamores won 77-66 for 143 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

Northern Iowa has been playing elite defense here down the stretch holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 71 points or fewer.  They held a high-octane Belmont offense to just 62 points yesterday in their 67-62 win that saw 129 combined points.  Indiana State is better defensively than it gets credit for.  The Sycamores have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 74 points or fewer.  They held Missouri State to 59 points yesterday in a 75-59 win that saw just 134 combined points.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Panthers are 24-10 UNDER in their last 34 conference tournament games.  The Sycamores are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28.

The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so.  They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number.

Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler.  They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game.  They are clearly vulnerable away from home.   The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable.

Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense.  Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well.

But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas.  The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't.  This has been an UNDER series.

Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games.  The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach.  Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those.

Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace.  The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games.  They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams.

Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season.  The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday.  This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today.  Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game.  Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check.

Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again.  Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3.  Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points.  This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game.

Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 21-8 OVER in all games this season, including 14-3 OVER in its 17 home games where it is scoring 94.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting while also allowing 79.1 points per game at home.

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 109-77 for 186 combined points in the first meeting this season on February 6th.  So we have 25.5 points to spare with this 160.5-point total in the rematch.  It should be another shootout, and Vanderbilt scored 77 points despite shooting just 35.5% from the field in that first meeting.  I have to expect they'll shoot a little better in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 17-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 8-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17

St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games.  The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road.  Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul.

St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th.  Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount.  I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game.  They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season.  St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Bet St. John's Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 163.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 162 or more combined points in all nine games.  The OVER is 13-1 in their 14 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 163.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces Purdue, which also doesn't mind playing fast and does it efficiently ranking 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency.  Purdue beat Illinois 83-78 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  This despite Illinois not having its best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG).  He makes all the difference for the Fighting Illini and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois has looked to run a lot more with Shannon Jr., who leads the country in fast break points.

These are two of the top seven OVER teams in the entire country as Illinois is 21-8 OVER in all games this season while Purdue is 20-9 OVER in all games.  Illinois is 18-2 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5

Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday.  They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home.  Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be.

Illinois doesn't have the same luxury.  The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension.  He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup.

The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road.  This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late.  The spot really favors the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1

The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago.  They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT.  But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship.  I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season.  The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12

The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games.  They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night.  They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase.

Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah.  They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado.

Stanford is 1-8 ATS  in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet Colorado Sunday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Alabama OVER 169

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine consecutive games, including 95 or more in seven of those nine.  They play even faster and are even more efficient at home where they are averaging 95.8 points per game.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last six games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven games overall with 166 or more combined points in all seven games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Rick Barnes has the best offensive team he has had at Tennessee.  The Vols rank 16th in adjusted offense and 65th in adjusted tempo.  They have scored 86 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  They put up 91 on Alabama in their first meeting this season.  But Alabama only scored 71 thanks to 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from 3-point range.  They will shoot much better at home, where they make 41.6% from 3 on the season.  Both teams should get 85-plus in this one.

Alabama is 8-0 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 11-1 OVER when playing against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Tennessee is 15-7 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Washington OVER 153.5

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted tempo and 34th in adjusted offense this season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Washington's last 11 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

USC has been an OVER team when they've been fully healthy with Collier (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Ellis (16.5 PPG) on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.  They rank 114th in adjusted tempo and like to push the pace as well.  The OVER is 4-2 in their last six games overall.

USC beat Washington 80-74 for 154 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  Amazingly, they were missing both Collier and Bronny James in this game and it still got to 154 points despite USC shooting just 4-of-22 (18%) from 3-point range.  

I have to expect they will shoot better in the rematch, and I know Washington will shoot better than the 43.6% they shot in that first meeting.  The Huskies are shooting 51.4% at home this season including 40.2% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky CBS No-Brainer on OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 20-8 OVER in all games this season, including 13-3 OVER in its 16 home games where it is scoring 93.2 points per game on 53.3% shooting while also allowing 78.8 points per game at home.

Arkansas also likes to get out and run ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They won't mind getting out and running with the Wildcats today.

I think the first meeting between these teams with Kentucky and Arkansas both missing key players is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Kentucky won 63-57 for just 120 combined points.  But the pace was there and the shooting wasn't.  Arkansas shot 20-of-60 (33.3%) while Kentucky shot 23-of-63 (36.5%).  It's safe to say both teams will shoot a lot better in the rematch.

Kentucky is 9-0 OVER off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Wildcats are 16-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 7-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Villanova/Providence FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 136

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 345th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Villanova's last seven games overall with 234 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 136 is too high for a game involving Villanova right now.

Providence is an elite defensive team as well ranking 20th in the country in adjusted defense.  The Friars are struggling to score right now without Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG).  Villanova is also possibly without two key players in TJ Bamba (10.5 PPG) and Jordan Longino (6.6 PPG), who are both questionable.  The Wildcats struggle to score as it is even with these guys in the lineup.

Villanova beat Providence 68-50 for just 118 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  It will be a similar defensive struggle in the rematch today as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Villanova is 9-1 UNDER vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Quinnipiac/Iona OVER 150.5

Quinnipiac is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bobcats rank 18th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They score 78.4 points per game this season.  But they have quit playing defense during their current four-game losing streak which has seen them allow 80-plus points in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five games with 157 or more combined points in four of the five.

Iona also prefers to play up-tempo ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo while pressing the entire game.  We saw what happened when these two teams got together on January 21st in their first meeting this season and it was an absolute shootout.  Quinnipiac won 91-87 for 178 combined points.  We have 27.5 points to spare here in the rematch in what should be another track meet.

Iona is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +3.5

Both Gonzaga and San Francisco are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But Gonzaga looks more in than San Francisco right now, which means the Don need this game more.  The Bulldogs have a huge game on deck against St. Mary's on Saturday, and a win there would likely get them in the Big Dance.  They could be caught looking ahead to that game.

This is the best chance for the Dons to get a signature win, so they will be 'all in' to get it tonight.  Plus, they want revenge from a 77-72 road loss at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  The Bulldogs shot 20 more free throws than they did, and that was the difference.  I think they will get the benefit of the whistle at home this time around.

Nobody in the WCC has played Gonzaga and St. Mary's tougher than San Francisco has.  The Dons also lost by just 4 at St. Mary's two games ago.  It's time for them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight.  They are 14-1 SU at home this season.

The Dons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  San Francisco is 7-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* Alabama/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 166

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 95 or more in six of those eight.  

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 92 or more points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Alabama's last six games overall with 166 or more combined points in all six games.

Now the Crimson Tide face an Ole Miss team that boasts one of the best trios of guards in the entire country.  The Rebels rank 41st in adjusted offense and 18th in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  Their guards will get whatever they want against Alabama's defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Seton Hall/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on Seton Hall +8.5

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home three games ago, upset St. John's 68-62 on the road two games ago and crushed Butler by 12 at home last time out.

Now the Pirates want revenge from a 97-94 (3 OT) home loss to Creighton.  I love the value we are getting on them catching 8.5 points in the rematch.  They have a huge rest advantage here playing just their 2nd game in 10 days while having the last three days off, while Creighton has only had two days off since their 80-66 road loss at St. John's on Sunday with travel involved as well.  I think the Bluejays remain overvalued after upsetting UConn at home two games ago.

Creighton is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games with two or fewer assists.  The Pirates are on a mission tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the outright upset.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5

This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming.  It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt.  The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight.

Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home.  Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more.  This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 66th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs are always looking to get out rand run and get easy buckets in transition.  They face a Baylor team that is elite on the offensive end ranking 5th in adjusted offense but one that among the worst in the Big 12 defensively.

TCU is scoring 83.0 points per game at home this season while Baylor is scoring 82.3 points per game overall.  These teams met on January 27th at Baylor with a 105-102 (3 OT) win for TCU being the result.  That game was tied 76-76 at the end of regulation for 152 combined points, so it still went OVER the 148.5-point total in regulation.  And now we are getting an even better number of 147.5 for the rematch.

Baylor is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off two consecutive games with five or fewer steals.  The Bears are 8-1 OVER in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game.  TCU Is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 8-2 OVER vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points per game this season.  This one has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Creighton/St. John's CBS No-Brainer on St. John's +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games.  Head coach Rick Pitino called out his team and it was a bad look, which is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low'.

But the Red Storm responded well to Pitino last game jumping out to a huge lead against Georgetown and coasting home for the victory.  Now the Red Storm want revenge from a 66-65 loss at Creighton as 6-point dogs on January 13th.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and the books haven't adjusted enough for flipping home courts as St. John's should be favored.

While the Red Storm need this game like blood and will be max motivated, this is a massive letdown spot for Creighton.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season where everything went right for them in knocking of No. 1 UConn at home.  They are also 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, so we are 'selling high' on the Bluejays here.

St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of its last 10 games.  Rick Pitino is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of his last 10 games as a head coach having never lost in this situation.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -3

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home two games ago and upset St. John's 68-62 on the road last time out.

The Pirates have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for this game against reeling Butler.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall including a pair of blowout losses in their last two, losing by 22 at home to Creighton and by 10 at Villanova.  The Bulldogs are coming back down to reality as this team just isn't that talented and doesn't play much defense, allowing 71 or more points in seven consecutive games.

Seton Hall beat Butler 78-72 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins by 6 points or more.  Butler even shot 39.1% from 3 and 15-of-16 (93.7%) from the FT line in that first meeting and still lost by 6.  It's going to be hard to see them improving on the road in the rematch.

Butler is 1-7 ATS off a conference loss this season.  Shaheen Holloway is 7-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game after 15-plus game as a head coach.  Holloway is 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

20* Villanova/UConn FOX No-Brainer on Villanova +12.5

The Villanova Wildcats are playing their way back into NCAA Tournament contention by playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Xavier.  All four wins have come by double-digits by 10 over Butler, by 26 over Seton Hall, by 16 over Georgetown and by 18 over Providence.  The Wildcats haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 7 points.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from a 66-65 home loss to UConn as 3.5-point dogs.  They are catching 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is too much.  Everyone is expecting UConn to bounce back from its 85-66 loss at Creighton, but I'm not buying it.  Villanova needs this game more and will be the more motivated team.

Villanova hasn't lost any of its last 18 meetings with UConn by more than 12 points, making for an 18-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV -1

UNLV is making its push to make the NCAA Tournament playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Rebels are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after they blew a double-digit lead late to rival Nevada and lost by 3.  Their wins have been mighty impressive including an 80-77 upset win at New Mexico as a 12-point dog.  They bounced back from that loss to Nevada with a 29-point win at Air Force last time out.

Now the Rebels have their sights set on revenge from a 78-75 loss at Colorado State as 7-point dogs.  The Rams are 1-6 SU in Mountain West road games with thier lone win coming at Fresno State.  They lost by 16 at San Diego State, by 13 at Nevada, by 7 at Boise State and by 5 at Utah State.  UNLV is in the same class as those teams and will handle their business at home.

UNLV is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -1

I love the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats today.  They were humbled with a 75-74 loss at LSU at the buzzer which followed up their 70-59 road win over Auburn handing the Tigers their first home loss of the season.  That was a clear sandwich spot for Kentucky with this game against Alabama on deck.

Now we will get Kentucky's best effort today, and it will be good enough to beat Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are riding high right now winning seven of their last eight.  But they needed OT to beat Florida as 10-point home favorites last time out, and that effort will have taken a lot out of them.

Alabama will be without Mohamed Wague (4.0 PPG) due to suspension and could be without Latrell Whitesell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.5% 3-pointers), who missed last game with a concussion.  Conversely, there's a good chance Kentucky gets back Tre Mitchell (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.  They beat Auburn without him, however.

Nate Oats is 4-15 ATS off a home win where they didn't cover as a favorite as the coach of Alabama.  Oats is 1-9 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 75 points or more as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest -1

I love the spot for Wake Forest Saturday.  They get a chance at quick revenge after giving Duke a run for its money in a 77-69 road loss as 7-point dogs on February 12th.  Now they get to host the Blue Devils in the rematch here two weeks later, and home-court advantage will make all the difference.

Wake Forest is 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in ACC home games this season outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Duke is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pioneers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo, 95th in adjusted offense and a woeful 354th in adjusted defense.  They score 84.4 points per game and allow 81.2 points per game this season.

South Dakota State has been a dead nuts OVER team under current head coach Ric Henderson.  That's pretty much the case again this season ranking 109th in adjusted tempo, 153rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 76.7 points per game overall including 81.4 points per game at home.

Denver beat South Dakota State 99-80 for 179 combined points in their first meeting on January 13th this season.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and we have 19 points to spare with this 160-point total.  That first total was set at 163, and there's no way the books should have adjusted it down.

Denver is 18-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pioneers are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  South Dakota State is 10-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  Denver is 7-0 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +5.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 17-8 SU & 14-9 ATS this season including 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in AAC play.  They are in 2nd place in the conference just one game behind South Florida, which is also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Memphis, which is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 7-6 SU & 2-11 ATS in AAC play this season.  Penny Hardaway is in dangerous territory here looking like he has lost this team.

Memphis followed up a 76-66 loss at North Texas with a 106-79 loss at SMU on Sunday.  The Tigers just quit playing defense against SMU and have now allowed 74 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Rice as 14.5-point favorites and South Florida as 10-point favorites.  They also only beat Wichita State by 2 as 9.5-point favorites.

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games this season.  Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The 49ers are 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Charlotte Wednesday.

20* Florida/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in six consecutive games, including 99 or more in four of those six.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Florida.  The Gators rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 10th in adjusted offense.  The Gators have scored at least 79 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Alabama averages 91 PPG overall and 96 PPG at home.  Florida averages 85 PPG overall and 82 PPG on the road.  I expect both teams to get to their season averages tonight considering this game will be played at a rapid pace, and if that happens we cash this OVER ticket.

Florida is 6-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Texas Tech OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 72nd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted offense this season.  Texas Tech ranks 13th in adjusted offense and can light it up on that end of the court.

These teams met on January 30th with TCU winning 85-78 for 163 combined points.  Now we have a total of 147.5 for the rematch, which is just too low.  These teams also combined for 165 points in their final meeting last season.  Texas Tech is scoring 77.2 points per game at home this season while TCU is scoring 79.2 points per game on the road.

TCU is 7-0 OVER in road games off an ATS win this season.  Texas Tech is 8-2 OVER with a total of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Red Raiders are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2

I like the spot for Utah State after losing two of its last three games with two of those losses coming on the road to Colorado State and San Diego State.  Now the Aggies want revenge from that loss to the Aztecs on February 3rd.  They shot 26.1% from 3 while the Aztecs shot 45% from 3 and attempted 15 fewer free throws.  They are due for some positive shooting regression and the benefit of the whistle at home in the rematch.

It's a good time to fade San Diego State after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Aztecs are coming off a huge 81-70 home win over New Mexico to get their revenge on the Lobos from a previous road loss.  The Aztecs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Air Force.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their six MWC road games this season.

Utah State is 11-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game at home.  San Diego State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Utah State Tuesday.

20* UConn/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

UConn and Creighton both play at a snail's pace and both play some of the best defense in the country.  That makes them both dead nuts UNDER teams.  UConn ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense.  Creighton ranks 221st in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between UConn and Creighton.  They combined for 110 points in a 62-48 win by UConn in their first meeting this season.  In fact, they have combined for 129 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Big Monday No-Brainer on William & Mary +17.5

William & Mary is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Tribe lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Hofstra, pulled off the 4-point upset win as 9-point dogs at Northeastern, only lost by 4 as 8.5-point dogs at Monmouth and only lost by 11 as 12.5-point dogs at Delaware.

William & Mary only lost 84-83 as 13-point home dogs to College of Charleston in their first meeting on February 3rd earlier this month.  Now the Tribe are catching 17.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case considering they have played much better on the road here of late.

Plays on road teams (William & Mary) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 55 points or less are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Charleston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall and consistently overvalued.  That's the case again tonight.  Bet William & Mary Monday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +5.5

South Florida has been disrespected all season and Florida Atlantic has been getting too much respect after making the Final 4 last season.  That remains the case here Sunday.  I fully expect the Bulls to earn their respect with an outright upset of the Owls, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

South Florida is 18-5 SU & 15-6 ATS this season.  The Bulls have gone 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are 12-2 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU in conference play.  Their lone conference loss came on the road by 4 points at UAB.

Florida Atlantic is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall and consistently laying too many points to the opposition due to the notoriety of making the Final 4 last year.  But they are getting everyone's best shot with a target on their back, and they will get South Florida's best shot today as well.

South Florida is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Florida Atlantic.  Bet South Florida Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +18.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Wildcats off five consecutive victories.  They are coming off a pair of impressive road wins 105-99 (3 OT) at Utah and 99-79 at Colorado.  That win at Colorado was even more impressive because they were coming off that 3 OT game and playing their 2nd game in 3 days in altitude.  I think they take their foot off the gas tonight against Arizona State.

But Arizona hasn't been very impressive in three of its last four home games.  The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games beating Stanford by 11 as 18-point favorites, UCLA by 6 as 18-point favorites and USC by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.  I think Arizona State can stay within 18.5 tonight just as those three teams did.

The Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Their last two games they upset Utah 85-77 as 12-point road dogs and crushed Oregon State 79-61 as 6.5-point home favorites.  Now they are looking at this game against big brother Arizona as their 'national championship' game and will put their best foot forward.

Arizona State pulled the 89-88 outright upset as 12.5-point road dogs last year.  The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that are called for 3-plus fewer fouls per game than their opponents.  Each of the last eight meetings in this series were decided by 19 points or fewer, including seven by 13 points or fewer.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +20.5

Tennessee just doesn't take Vanderbilt seriously.  As a result, the Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee.  They lost by 13 as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They upset the Vols as 10-point home dogs last year.  They only lost by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs in their last two road meetings.

Vanderbilt treats this game like its 'national championship' game every year.  The Commdores upset Texas A&M 74-73 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out to flash their potential, and they already proved they could play with the Vols int their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game by 5 points at halftime, and the 13-point loss was not indicative of how close it really was.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Tennessee is 1-9 ATS with a total set of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Commodores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF +1

UCF has proven it can hang in the Big 12 in its first season going 8-3 ATS in its 11 Big 12 games.  That includes home wins over Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.  Now they host a Cincinnati team that they can handle here.

Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 to be tough sledding going 3-7 SU in its last 10 games overall.  The Bearcats just lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State and now have to go on the road here against UCF.  This is a brutal stretch that will have taken a lot out of them.

UCF is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists.  UCF is 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet UCF Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  But now they have had the last week off having played last Saturday to rest and recover.  I expect a big effort from the Bulldogs against their arch rivals in Florida.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Gators.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they are starting to get overvalued, and they were fortunate to escape with an 82-80 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites on Tuesday.

Georgia will be extra motivated for revenge from a 102-98 (OT) loss at Florida on January 27th.  The Gators shot 54.9% from the field and 17-of-20 (85%) from the FT line and still needed OT to get by the Bulldogs.  Things won't come as easy for the Gators on the road this time around.  Georgia is 11-3 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-4 SU in SEC road games with one win at winless Missouri and the other coming by 3 points.

Florida is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* New Mexico/SDSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5

New Mexico has played some of its best basketball on the road this season proving that the Lobos can win away from The Pit.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four MWC road games with three wins by 18 points or more as well as an upset win at Nevada.

Now the Lobos are catching 6.5 points on the road to a San Diego State team that they beat 88-70 at home in their first meeting.  They won by 18 despite shooting just 7-of-24 (29.2%) from 3 and 21-of-31 (67.7%) from the FT line.  There was nothing fluky about that victory at all.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 6.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

New Mexico is 6-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  The Lobos are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  New Mexico is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with San Diego State including a 76-67 upset win as 8-point road dogs last year.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +20

The Florida Atlantic Owls set some unsustainable expectations when they made their run to the Final 4 last season.  They have been overvalued big time in conference play this season.  They have a target on their backs and are getting everyone's best shot on a nightly basis.

The result has been a 3-9 ATS run over their last 12 games overall.  The Owls aren't blowing anyone out.  They have won several close games during this stretch with six of their last 13 games decided by 4 points or fewer.  They had no business covering against Wichita State last game, winning by 13 as 7.5-point favorites in overtime.

Florida Atlantic won't be motivated at all to beat Temple tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 20-point spread.  They have a huge game on deck at South Florida on Sunday against the team that is leading the conference.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Temple is 1-10 SU in conference play, but all 10 losses came by 18 points or less, and nine by 13 points or fewer.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in conference play.  Temple's last six games were all decided by 7 points or fewer or went to OT.  They will be treating this game as their 'national championship' game against FAU.  

Temple has just one loss by more than 18 points all season, making for a 23-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 20-point spread.  Florida Atlantic has just one win by more than 15 points in its last 15 games.  Bet Temple Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall.  The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova.

Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season.  They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy.

Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul.  Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette.  Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them.

The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

20* Ole Miss/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 162.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 125th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-5 OVER in their 23 games this season, including 12-2 OVER in their 14 home games which are seeing 170.6 combined points per game on average.

Ole Miss is an elite offensive team ranking 30th in adjusted offense but like Kentucky, a terrible defensive team ranking 130th in adjusted defense.  The Rebels are 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 38.7% on the season.  The Wildcats are 1st at 41% on the season.  These are two elite shooting teams, so the OVER is a great bet.

Kentucky is 15-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs.  They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games.

The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern.  They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th.  That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out.  Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough.  Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State.

Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry.  They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +2.5

This is the toughest spot of the season for Arizona.  They are coming off a 105-99 (3 OT) win at Utah in the altitude on Thursday.  Four starters played at least 44 minutes for the Wildcats.  Now they have to turn around and play in the altitude again in Colorado on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Buffaloes.

Colorado made pretty easy work of Arizona State in an 82-70 home win on Thursday.  The Buffaloes should still be pretty fresh for this one.  They have some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last decade, which has proven to be the case again this season.

Colorado is 13-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  Arizona is 2-3 SU in its last five Pac-12 road games despite being favored in all five.  The two wins both came down to the wire, and the three losses came by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Arizona.  That includes a 79-63 win in their most recent home meeting.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  The Buffaloes are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case because it hasn't been for much of the season.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +13

This is the toughest spot of the season for the Utah Utes.  They are coming off a very deflating 105-99 (3 OT) home loss to Arizona on Thursday.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Arizona Sun Devils on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank as their three best players in Madsen (51 minutes), Smith (49) and Carlson (44) have to be running on fumes.

That is going to make it very difficult for the Utes to get margin on the Sun Devils.  Arizona State clearly matches up well with Utah beating them 82-70 as 6-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  The Sun Devils are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Utes.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a home loss.  Arizona State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after two straight games attempting 10 or fewer free throws than their opponents.  The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +7.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's after losing five of their last seven games overall.  They want revenge from one of those defeats, a 73-72 home loss to Marquette on January 20th.  Now they go from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Marquette off six consecutive victories while also going 5-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have had the last week off, and while that's usually a good thing, it could work against them here because they were on a roll.  It's just like the NFL where you want to back teams who were poor going into their bye and fade teams that were on a roll going into their bye.

St. John's is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Red Storm are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Wake Forest OVER 149

Wake Forest is an elite offensive team.  They score 80.7 points per game overall and 84.9 points per game at home.  They rank 27th in adjusted offense and 109th in adjusted tempo, so they like to play pretty fast as well.

NC State also likes to play pretty fast ranking 120th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense.  The Wolfpack are scoring 75.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 159, 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  NC State beat Wake Forest 83-76 earlier this season for 159 combined points despite these two teams combining to go just 6-of-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will only shoot better in the rematch.

Wake Forest is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off two consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.  NC State is 51-32 OVER in its last 83 road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +2.5

I love the spot for the Florida Gators.  They have had the last week off since a tough 67-66 road loss to Texas A&M last Saturday.  They are foaming at the mouth and ready to take their shot at upsetting the Auburn Tigers in Gainesville on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate letdown spot.  The Tigers are coming off a 99-81 home win over their biggest rivals in the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They got revenge on Alabama after losing on the road to them in their first meeting this season.  That was on Wednesday, so the Tigers have only had two days to get ready for the Gators.

Florida is 9-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming to Kentucky by 2.  Auburn is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three SEC road games losing at Alabama by 4 and at Mississippi State by 6 with its lone win coming at Ole Miss.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Auburn.  Bet Florida Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +8

I love the spot for TCU Saturday.  They have had the last week off since a 77-66 home loss to Texas.  They want revenge from a 73-72 home loss to Iowa State on January 20th in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to take the Cyclones to the wire at the very least, so we are getting some great value on the Horned Frogs.

Iowa State will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days and is in a letdown spot following a 70-65 upset road win at Texas on Tuesday.  The Cyclones won't be all that motivated to beat TCU again, and they are starting to get a little too much respect after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Three of the last four meetings between Iowa State and TCU were decided by 3 points or less.  TCU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Horned Frogs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  TCU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Rutgers Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -4

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers.  They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak and will be max motivated for a victory.  They lost in OT at Nebraska, went 3-for-19 from 3 in a 6-point home loss to Purdue, and were upset at Michigan as 8-point favorites last time out.

We will 'buy low' on the Badgers and 'sell high' on Rutgers, which is coming off two consecutive upset road wins at Michigan and at Maryland.  They came back from 15 points down in the 2H to beat Michigan and clipped Maryland by 3.  They had lost their previous three games and none were really competitive, losing by 25 at Illinois, by 8 at home to Purdue and by 15 at home to Penn State.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series.  The road team is now 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  This is a very short number for the Badgers to be laying today considering they are by far the superior team.  The rank 11th in offense and 31st in defense while Rutgers ranks 297th in offense.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* SDSU/Nevada MWC No-Brainer on Nevada -1.5

Nevada is 11-1 SU at home this season with home of the best home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  Their last two home games have been very impressive with a 77-64 win as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado State and a 90-60 win over San Jose State as 11.5-point favorites.  But neither were as impressive as their 77-63 win as 5.5-point dogs at Utah State last time out, so the Wolf Pack are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Now they get a chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume today with a home win over a ranked San Diego State team.  But the Aztecs have been far from dominant over the last month.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Most concerning has been their performances on the road.

The Aztecs only beat San Jose State 81-78 as 10-point favorites, lost 88-70 at New Mexico as 3.5-point dogs, lost 67-66 as 1-point favorites at Boise State and lost 79-71 as 2.5-point dogs at Colorado State.  They are now 1-4 ATS in their last five MWC road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Nevada beat San Diego State 75-66 as a 2.5-point home dog last season.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season and should not be 6-point home underdogs to the Arizona Wildcats tonight.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Utes will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game all season, and I expect them to pull off the upset to boost their tournament resume.  We'll take the points for some insurance.

Arizona has been very shaky on the road in Pac-12 play this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 road games with three bad upset losses.  They lost by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Utes are 201-152 ATS in their last 353 home games.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +21.5

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-17 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points.

I backed the Beacons in a similar spot against Drake as my 25* MVC Game of the Year.  Drake was coming off a huge win over Indiana State the game prior and was in a letdown spot.  That proved to be the case as Drake only won by 11 as similar 20.5-point favorites.

Now it is Indiana State in the letdown spot.  The Sycamores are coming off a huge 75-67 home win over Drake on Saturday that solidified their spot in 1st place in the MVC.  They beat Bradley in OT two games before and were flat in a 6-point win at Belmont the next game, which was sandwiched in between the Bradley/Drake games.  I fully expect the Sycamores to be flat tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 21.5-point spread.

Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS as a road dog or PK this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more.  The Beacons are 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  They have done their best work on the road in 2023-24 and will give the Sycamores more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5

Minnesota is the best covering team in the entire country going 14-7 SU & 18-3 ATS.  That includes 12-3 SU & 14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Gophers continue to lack the respect they deserve as 3.5-point home dogs to the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Minnesota wants revenge from a 76-66 loss at Michigan State on January 18th just three weeks ago.  But PG Elijah Hawkins (8.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) missed that game for the Gophers.  He is their floor general and not having him on the road against the Spartans was a massive loss.  Having him back for the rematch will make a massive difference.

Michigan State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.  The Spartans are 1-3 SU in their last four Big Ten road game with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

20* Clemson/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

The UNC Tar Heels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 93-84 win Saturday night against their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  They already beat Clemson on the road earlier this season and won't be that motivated to beat them again.

Clemson goes from a 3-point home favorite against UNC in that first meeting to an 8.5-point road dog in the rematch.  That's a massive adjustment.  The Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after losing two of their last three.  They lost by a single point at Duke and lost by 1 at home to Virginia.

Clemson has some 3-point luck coming their way.  The Tigers shot 1-of-18 (5.6%) from 3 against North Carolina in that first meeting.  They are shooting 30.1% from 3 in ACC play but are a much better shooting team than that making 35.2% on the season.  Opponents are only making 26.8% from 3 against UNC in ACC play, so the Tar Heels are due for some regression in that department.  Opponents are hitting 37.3% from 3 against Clemson in ACC play, so they are due for some positive regression.  The Tigers have been one of the most unlucky teams in the ACC.

Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Georgia Tech OVER 150

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.7 points per game this season.  In fact, 11 of Wake Forest's last 12 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 25th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech ranks 94th in adjusted offense and 182nd in adjusted defense making them more of an OVER team.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

Wake Forest is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games after scoring 95 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin CBS No-Brainer on Wisconsin +2.5

The Wisconsin Badgers should not be home underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers today.  The Badgers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  This will be Purdue's toughest road test of the entire season today.

Purdue's six Big Ten road games have come against Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers.  They lost at Northwestern and lost by 16 at Nebraska as 7.5-point favorites.  Wisconsin took Nebraska to OT last time out and lost in what was a lookahead spot.  They will come back fully focused today.

Purdue is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Boilermakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  The Badgers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Wisconsin is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Purdue with both narrow losses coming by 4 and 2 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Syracuse/Wake Forest OVER 150.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 79.8 points per game this season.  In fact, 10 of Wake Forest's last 11 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 38th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

It is also too low for a game involving Syracuse, which is another dead nuts OVER team.  The Orange rank 41st in adjusted tempo this season.  They just combined for 155 points with Boston College last time out and have allowed 49.2% or higher shooting in three consecutive games.

Wake Forest and Syracuse have combined for at least 151 points in three of their last four meetings.  Syracuse is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 conference road games.  Wake Forest is 32-19 OVER in its last 51 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -5

Indiana State wants revenge from a 89-78 loss at Drake on January 10th.  The Bulldogs shot the lights out in that game going 10-of-25 (40%) from 3.  They will be much less comfortable on the road in the rematch tonight.

The Sycamores are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season outscoring their opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 90.6 points per game and allowing 64.1 points per game at home.  

Drake is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five road games losing outright as 7-point favorites at UAB, outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont and outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB.  This will be Drake's toughest road test of the season tonight.

Drake is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Sycamores are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota PK

Northwestern is coming off a crushing 105-96 (OT) loss to Purdue on Wednesday.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice.  I fully expect the Wildcats to be flat and tired today after having just two days off in between games.

Minnesota is rested and ready to go after beating Penn State 83-74 last Saturday.  The Golden Gophers have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Northwestern.  I expect them to put it to use today and get the job done.

Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Gophers have gone 13-7 SU & 17-3 ATS this season.  That includes 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS at home.  Northwestern is going to cool off from 3 today as Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in thier last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's.  The Red Storm have lost four of their last five games with three of those losses coming on the road and a 1-point home loss to Marquette.  They will be more motivated to win this game against UConn than any other game all season.

The Red Storm are also out for revenge from a 69-65 road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Now they get them at home where they are 8-2 SU with that 1-point loss to Marquette being their lone home loss in conference play.  They beat Xavier by 15, Butler by 16, Providence by 2 and Villanova by 20 in their other four Big East home games.

Alex Karaban (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is questionable for the Huskies today after suffering an ankle injury against Providence last time out.  Rick Pitino is 50-26 ATS when revenging a road loss as a head coach.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +20.5

The Drake Bulldogs are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off a 77-63 home win as 9.5-point favorites against their in-state rivals in Northern Iowa, who were without their best player.  And now they have an even bigger game on deck on the road Saturday at Indiana State that is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley.

Sandwiched in between those games is this contest against Valparaiso, which has one of the worst records in the conference.  The Bulldogs are just going to feel like they can show up and win this one, and they won't be giving the Beacons their full attention.  So getting 20.5 points with Valpo is a tremendous value tonight given the awful spot for Drake.

But this Valpo team has been no pushover.  The Beacons have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are much better than they get credit for.  They haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 11 points.  They are 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch losing by 6 as 12.5-point dogs at Illinois-Chicago, winning outright at Illinois State by 9 as 10-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Evansville as 7-point dogs and losing by just 6 at Southern Illinois as 13.5-point dogs.

Valparaiso is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Drake.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.  Drake hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Valpo by more than 18 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Beacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  The Beacons are 8-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 143

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.2 points per game this season.  They are allowing 79.6 points per game in all games played away from home.  This total is 143 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

In fact, nine of Wake Forest's last 10 games have seen 147 or more combined points, which makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143-point total.  Pitt is more of an under team than an over team, but the Panthers will get theirs on offense and this game will sail OVER.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Pitt and Wake Forest with 144 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  The last two meetings saw 160 and 166 combined points.  The OVER is 14-2 in Wake's last 16 January games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss PK

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect? The Rebels are 17-3 SU this season including a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Chris Beard is making an immediate impact on this team in his first season and proving he's one of the best head coaches in the country.

Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset home win over Auburn.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its three SEC road games this season losing by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina, losing by 13 as 6.5-point dogs at Kentucky and losing by 9 as 4.5-point dogs at Florida.

Ole Miss is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in SEC home games this season beating Florida by 18 as 3-point dogs, beating Vanderbilt by 13 as 10-point favorites and crushing Arkansas by 26 as 8.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers this season.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +3.5

I love the spot for Virginia Tech tonight.  They are coming off a 91-67 blowout home victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday and get to stay at home here.  They will be the much fresher team in this matchup despite playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

Duke will also be playing its 2nd game in 3 days but has to travel.  The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy in their 72-71 win over Clemson on Saturday at home.  They also won in dramatic fashion with two free throws just before the buzzer to eek out the win.  Now they are primed for a letdown as well.

Virginia Tech has a big home-court advantage going 10-1 SU at home this season.  The lone loss came by 4 points to Miami.  The Hokies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blue Devils and always play them tough in Blacksburg.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings.

Virginia Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  I expect the Hokies to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I love the spot for Kentucky tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season getting upset at South Carolina by 17 as 5.5-point favorites.  They will bounce back in a big way tonight and won't be taking this dreadful Arkansas team lightly as a result.

The Razorbacks are broken.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and getting blown out on the regular.  They lost by 32 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Georgia, by 22 at Florida, by 13 at home to South Carolina and by 26 at Ole Miss.  I think Eric Musselman has lost this team already, and they may not have their best player in Tramon Mark (17.8 PPG), who is questionable after sitting out last game.

Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Kentucky is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +8

Wyoming has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU at home this season including an upset win over Nevada as 7-point dogs in their most recent home game.  That's the same Nevada team that just beat Colorado State 77-64 last time out.

Wyoming should not be catching 8 points at home to a Colorado State team that has been grossly overvalued since it turned conference season.  The Cowboys are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The two wins came in OT at home against Air Force as 15.5-point favorites and by 3 over UNLV at home as 7-point favorites.  They lost all three of their true road games during this stretch.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Colorado State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS off a conference game this season.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

20* Clemson/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

I love the spot for Clemson.  They last played on Saturday in a 78-67 road win at Florida State.  That means they have had an entire week off to rest and prepare to beat Duke.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season.

Duke is not playing well right now.  The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU by 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and consistently getting too much respect.  They only beat Georgia Tech by 5 as 17.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Pitt by 4 as 12-point home favorites and won by 14 at Louisville as 14-point favorites.  Duke played on Tuesday and only had three days to get ready for Clemson.

Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after going over the total in three consecutive games.  Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But now they are laying 7.5-point on the road to Florida State after being 3-point underdogs at Clemson.  That just shows you how big of an adjustment they have made on UNC, and it's too big.

Florida State wants revenge from a 78-70 road loss at North Carolina as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 2nd.  But that was a bad FSU team at the time, and this is a much improved team under Leonard Hamilton now.  The Seminoles are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse all by 9 points or more.  But they aren't getting the kind of respect that UNC is.

The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in ACC play this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Kentucky -3.5

Northern Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Norse are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two losses coming on the road at Cleveland State by 3 as 4.5-point dogs and at Oakland by 5 as 6-point dogs.  

The Norse are coming off a pair of blowout home wins over quality Horizon League teams.  They beat Milwaukee 90-72 as 2-point favorites and Green Bay 74-52 as 6-point favorites to improve to 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  Now the Norse want revenge from a 73-60 loss at IPFW on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  They shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and 11-of-21 (54.2%) from the FT line in that loss and can only improve.

IPFW is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall with three upset losses including a very bad 6-point home loss to IUPUI as 16.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Youngstown State, by 3 at Robert Morris and by 7 at Cleveland State in their last three road games.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with IPFW winning the last two by 20 and 10 points.  IPFW is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 January games.  NKU is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five games ATS.  Bet Northern Kentucky Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +14

Valparaiso has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall not once losing by more than 9 points.  That includes a 59-50 upset win at Illinois State as a 10-point dog.  The Beacons only lost by 9 as 9.5-point home dogs to Southern Illinois.

Now Valparaiso is out for revenge on the Salukis and catching 14 points in the rematch on the road.  This number is too high, especially when you consider how poorly SIU is playing of late.  This is a team that lost a lot in the transfer portal and wasn't able to replace that talent.

Southern Illinois is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 18 at home to Drake, by 1 at home to Bradley and by 4 at Northern Iowa.  The Salukis just don't have the same kind of home-court advantage this season that they have in years' past.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo a second time this season.

Valparaiso is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Beacons are 6-0 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Southern Illinois ranks 341st in adjusted tempo, making it hard for them to get margin because there just aren't enough possessions.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Duquesne ML -125

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Duquesne Dukes.  They have opened 0-5 SU &1-4 ATS in conference play and will be highly motivated for their first conference victory tonight.  They have played a brutal schedule with road games at UMass, Loyola-Chicago and St. Joe's as well as home losses to Dayton and Richmond.  They were competitive in all five games including a pair of 2-point losses in their last two.

St. Bonaventure is a team Duquesne can handle tonight.  They have opened 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play including road losses by 11 at Richmond and by 9 at George Mason in their last two games away from home.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings in this head-to-head series.

St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

20* Texas/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4.5

Oklahoma has lost its last three meetings with Texas by a combined 5 points total.  It's safe to say the Sooners will be out for revenge tonight, and they finally have the goods to get that revenge.  Porter Moser's team is his best in Norman, while the Texas Longhorns have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.

Oklahoma is 15-3 SU this season including 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home.  The Sooners won and covered both Big 12 home games this season beating Iowa State by 8 as 1.5-point favorites and West Virginia by 14 as 12.5-point home favorites.  I have no doubt they win this game by 5-plus points over Texas tonight.

The Longhorns are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They lost by 21 at Marquette, won by 1 at Cincinnati and lost outright at West Virginia as 6-point favorites in their three true road games this season.  This is a letdown spot for Texas as well coming off a win over Baylor at the buzzer over the weekend.  That followed up an upset loss to UCF as 8.5-point home favorites.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Longhorns are 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* Wake Forest/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 155.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 81.1 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 76 or more in nine of 10 with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

North Carolina is also an OVER team ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted offense.  The Tar Heels are scoring 83.4 points per game this season.  I expect the Tar Heels to get 80-plus in this one and the Demon Deacons to likely get close or exceed 80 as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 177, 167, 174, 153 and 176 combined points in those five meetings.  They have averaged 169.4 combined points per game in those five, which is roughly 14 points more than this 155.5-point total.  There is serious value on the OVER as a result.

Wake Forest is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 January games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Wake Forest is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +8.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They were in a sleepy spot against Louisville at home last time out and needed a late run to pull away and win by 16 as 21-point favorites.  Now they are once again in a sleepy spot and laying too many points on the road at Boston College today.

Boston College has had the last four days off to get ready for UNC while the Tar Heels have only had the last two days off, so the Eagles have a big rest and preparation advantage.  I like what I've seen from this team especially at home where Boston College is 7-2 SU with both losses coming by 6 points each.  They haven't lost at home by this kind of margin all season, making for a 9-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

UNC is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston College is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  We'll 'buy low' on the Eagles who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State -2

I love this spot for Arizona State.  They are coming off consecutive losses at Washington and at home to UCLA and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They had won four consecutive games prior to these losses with four outright wins as underdogs.  Now they are back home where they are 7-1 SU this season.

They take on an injury-ravaged USC team that is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 8 at home to Washington State, by 10 at Colorado and by 15 at Arizona.  It won't get any easier for them today because of these injuries.  USC is without Isaiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG), and both Boogie Ellis (18.7 PPG) and DJ Rodman (7.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG) are questionable.  If all three are out, they will be without three of their top four scorers.  It's too much to overcome even if they are only without Collier.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Wake Forest OVER 151

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 30th in adjusted offense and are scoring 80.6 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in seven of their last nine games overall and 76 or more in eight of nine with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

Louisville has scored 70-plus points in six of its last seven games with the lone exception being against Virginia.  The Cardinals are a decent offensive team ranking 167th in adjusted offense but just 239th in adjusted defense.  I think Louisville gets 70-plus and Wake Forest gets 80-plus in this one for us to cash this OVER ticket.

The Demon Deacons haven't had sharp-shooter Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG last year) all season but he makes his much-anticipated return from injury today.  Wake Forest and Louisville have combined for 152 and 176 points in their last two meetings.  Wake Forest is 13-1 OVER in its last 14 January games.  Louisville is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after losing 8 or more of its last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-San Diego +6.5

UC-San Diego has quietly gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tritons' only loss came by 4 as 9-point dogs at California.  Earlier this season, they only lost by 1 to San Diego State as 13.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

UC-Irvine is 5-1 SU but just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Anteaters have been living good winning a bunch of close games, especially at home.  They won by 7 as 12-point favorites over UC-Riverside, by 8 as 12-point favorites over CS-Fullerton and by 3 as 9-point favorites over UC-Davis.  Their luck may run out tonight against a Tritons team that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

San Diego is 11-4 ATS in all games this season.  Irvine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better.  The Anteaters are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.  The Tritons won outright as 12.5-point underdogs at Irvine last season.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +11.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are catching too many points tonight at home against Auburn.  The Commodores have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 2 as 15.5-point dogs at Memphis, beating Dartmouth by 16 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 3 as 12.5-point home dogs to Alabama and losing by 8 as 8.5-point dogs at LSU.  They were even competitive in their 13-point loss at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, and that's an Ole Miss team that is 15-1 this season.

If the Commodores can nearly upset Alabama at home and Memphis on the road, they can certainly stay within 11.5 points of Auburn.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers, who have gone 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  They have only played two true road games all season and one of them resulted in an upset loss at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt is 12-3 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Auburn.  The Commodores upset the Tigers 67-65 as 3-point home dogs last season.  Plays against road teams as a favorite or PK (Auburn) - a hot team having covered six or seven of its last eight games, a top-level team winning 80% of its games or more against a losing team are 45-12 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

20* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

This is one of the best Kentucky teams that John Calipari has had in his tenure in Lexington which is saying a lot.  The Wildcats are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and have been undervalued.  I love the spot for the Wildcats after getting humbled on the road with an OT loss at Texas A&M.

Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 8-1 this season and outscoring opponents by 21.3 points per game.  They host a Mississippi State team that has only played two true road games all season, and both resulted in upset losses by 8 as 8.5-point favorites at Georgia Tech and by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina.

Kentucky is 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Mississippi State with all eight wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +10.5

We've already seen Purdue suffer both of their losses on the Big Ten highway this season.  They lost 92-88 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern and 88-72 as 7.5-point favorites at Nebraska.  They should not be laying 10.5 points on the road at Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming to Kansas by 4 as 7-point dogs.  They led that game 90% of the way and only lost it in the final minutes.  They beat Minnesota by 12, Ohio State by 6 and Maryland by 12.  Assembly Hall is one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have had Matt Painter and the Boilermakers' number in recent meetings.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Purdue.  They won outright 79-71 as 7-point road dogs, 79-74 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost by 2 as 10-point road dogs and won by 3 as 4-point home dogs.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record 15-plus games into the season.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points pre game.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They are 12-0 SU & 14-2 ATS this season, including 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS at home. Their only home loss came when they blew a 20-plus point 2H lead to Missouri in a 2-point defeat. They beat Nebraska and Maryland at home in Big Ten play.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have always had huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffrey. That's the case again this season as the Hawkeyes are terrible on the road. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season, losing by 8 at Creighton, by 19 at Purdue, by 25 at Iowa State and by 11 at Wisconsin.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Bet Minnesota Monday.

20* Washington/UCLA Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington PK

The UCLA Bruins continue to get too much respect for what they did in previous seasons.  But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century.  The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9.

The Bruins hit rock bottom last time out with a 90-44 road loss at Utah. The team looked to have quit on head coach Mick Cronin. It's not going to get any easier for the Utes today against an underrated Washington team.

The Huskies have gone 10-6 this season against the 29th-toughest schedule in the country. They rank 40th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense as a very balanced team. All six of their losses came by 7 points or less, so they are close to being much better than 10-6.

Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread. Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games. UCLA is 1-7 ATS in all home games this season. Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 57-53 upset home win over No. 2 Houston. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, and that will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated 13.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cowboys off consecutive losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. This is an Oklahoma State team that just has Iowa State's number. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cyclones including two upset road wins by 8 as 6.5-point dogs and by 17 as 4-point dogs.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Iowa State) - a hot team having covered 6 or 7 or their last 8 games ATS who are also winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 91-50 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cyclones. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +3

The Drake Bulldogs are coming off a massive 89-78 home win over Indiana State. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now as they are road favorites at Southern Illinois when they shouldn't be favored at all.

Drake has been very disappointing in its last two road games. The Bulldogs lost outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB. Then they lost outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont.

Now they must take on a Southern Illinois team that has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC. The Salukis are 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season. They beat Belmont by 10, Illinois-Chicago by 12, St. Louis by 39 and also upset Oklahoma State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. Bet Southern Illinois Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -2.5

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside 'The Pit'. The Lobos are 8-0 at home this season and will take down the San Diego State Aztecs today.

San Diego State is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 road games this season. The Aztecs only beat San Jose State by 3 as 10-point favorites, lost outright at Grand Canyon by 6 as 2.5-point favorites and only beat UCSD by 1 as 13.5-point favorites. This will be their toughest road test of the season today. Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Washington State/USC OVER 146

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and 6-1 OVER at home.  The Trojans have some of the best talent in the entire country offensively, but they play very little defense.

We have really seen that play out over the past couple months with the OVER 9-1 in USC's last 10 games overall.  USC and their opponents have combined for 156 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  So this 146-point total is very low for a game involving USC.

The Trojans will control the tempo playing at home and will force Washington State to run with them.  Washington State just played a 89-84 shootout with Oregon last time out in a game that saw 173 combined points.  Oregon has a similar profile to USC.

USC is 8-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  USC and Washington State combined for 150 and 152 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +125

The Houston Cougars are 14-0 this season.  They have once again benefited from playing the 171st-ranked schedule in the country, plus a home-heavy schedule in the non-conference at that.  But now they must face their stiffest test of the season on the road against a Big 12 opponent in the Iowa State Cyclones.

Houston has only played one true road game this season and struggled in a 66-60 win as 8.5-point favorites at Xavier.  The Cougars aren't used to having to play in hostile road atmospheres after previously playing in the American Athletic.  The Big 12 highway is a different animal, especially at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA.

Iowa State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  The Cyclones are outscoring opponents by a whopping 38.1 points per game at home.  We don't need the points tonight.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -4

Bradley is 9-5 against the 82nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Missouri State is 9-5 against the 274th-ranked schedule in the country.  That nearly 200-spot difference in strength of schedule is a big reason I'm laying the points with Bradley at home today.

Missouri State has not looked good on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games losing by 17 at Drake, by 4 at Middle Tennessee and by 1 at Tulsa.  Bradley is on Drake's level and a contender to win the MVC.  They will prove it today.

Bradley won both meetings with Missouri State last season.  They won 58-40 as 2.5-point road dogs and 64-54 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Bradley has one of the best home-court advantages in the country going 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

The Braves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Missouri State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Stanford/USC OVER 150.5

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-3 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER at home where they are scoring 82.2 points per game.  The Trojans rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  They have allowed at least 78 points in six of their last eight games overall, including 86 to a bad Oregon State offense.

Stanford ranks 122nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in effective field goal percentage.  The Cardinal are 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They just hung 100 points in an upset win over Arizona two games back.  They went for 160 combined points with USC in their last trip to face the Trojans.

USC is 7-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Stanford is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  USC and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Hofstra -1

Hofstra is 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with all four losses coming on the road to Saint Louis, Duke, UNLV and St. John's.  They only lost by 5 to a very good St. John's team last time out.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pride after losing four of their last five.  They have played a brutal schedule this season, a schedule that ranks 22nd-toughest in the entire country.  They have only played four home games all season and have shown well, beating South Florida 82-63 as 5.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State 74-58 as 9-point favorites in their last two home games.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on College of Charleston coming off five consecutive victories.  All five wins came at home against a very soft schedule.  They were last seen on the road losing 90-74 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs on December 10th.  They also lost by 18 to Duquesne, by 9 to Vermont and by 7 to Wyoming on a neutral earlier this season.

Hofstra is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Price are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Hofstra Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on California/USC OVER 151.5

USC is really a dead nuts OVER team with loads of offensive talent but poor defensive chemistry.  That's why the Trojans are just 6-7 this season despite having so much talent.  They rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans just allowed 86 points to Oregon State, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  They also allowed 82 points to Oregon the game before, plus 91 to Auburn, 84 to Long Beach State and 89 to Gonzaga recently.

California just allowed 100 points to Arizona, 88 to Ole Miss and 97 to Butler in some recent games.  The Golden Bears rank 120th in adjusted offense but just 237th in adjusted defense.  They also play faster than most teams ranking 169th in adjusted tempo.

California is 7-0 OVER as an underdog this season.  USC is 10-3 OVER in all games this season.  USC is 8-1 OVER in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.