20* Indiana/Miami National Championship No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 15-0 this season and on the verge of winning the National Championship.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.5 points per game during this 15-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 200.4 yards per game and 2.4 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.  They backed it up with a 56-22 win over Oregon in the semifinals.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They gave up 93 rushing yards on 26 carries to Oregon.  They have allowed 93 or fewer rushing yards in 13 of their last 14 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Miami, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.

The Hurricanes were able to escape with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss in the semifinals after narrow wins over Ohio State and Texas A&M to start the playoff.  Several things happened in that game that I think will be problems for them in this game.  Injuries to Miami piled up in that Ole Miss game, penalties are a problem for them, and they are terrible on special teams.

Miami DB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call against Ole Miss.  Damari Brown may still be out.  CB OJ Frederique played just seven snaps against Ole Miss and is injured.  Two freshmen in CB Ja'Boree Antoine and Chris Ewald will get a lot of playing time.  No question Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza can exploit this weak secondary and will.  He also gets the ball out quickly to negate Miami's biggest strength, which is its pass rush.  The Hurricanes were tired and beaten up along the defensive line against Ole Miss, too.  They only had one sack against the Rebels, who had their defense really on their heels in the 2H.

Miami has the 5th-most penalty yards in FBS, while Indiana has the 6th-fewest.  Mario Cristobal has notoriously been bad in this department as his teams have ranked 85th or worse in penalties in five consecutive seasons.  Miami's lack of discipline will be a problem here.  The Hurricanes had 10 penalties for 74 yards against Ole Miss and could have had even more with a late hit OB not called.  Cignetti has the Hoosiers buttoned up and they will not beat themselves.  

The Hoosiers have been great on special teams, while the Hurricanes have been terrible and don't have a reliable kicker.  Carter Davis is 17-of-23 (73.9%) on the season and missed a key kick against Ole Miss.  And Indiana will hold them to FG's.  Prior to the Oregon game, the Hoosiers had allowed just 6 red zone TD's all season.  They allowed 3 against Oregon but mostly in garbage time.  So they have allowed just 9 red zone TD's all season, making them the best red zone defense in the country.

Miami is playing in its home stadium, but it will not feel like a home game.  Indiana fans will shell out the money to be in attendance for the biggest game in program history.  They will have at least half the stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if it feels like a home game for them with how rabid their fan base is.  They showed out for the Rose Bowl and the Peach Bowl, and they will show out for this game, too.  This has another Hoosiers blowout written all over it.  Bet Indiana Monday.

20* Oregon/Indiana Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Indiana -4

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 14-0 this season and on the verge of reaching the National Championship Game.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.3 points per game during this 14-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 215.8 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon has benefited from a soft schedule and some breaks to get here.  The Ducks only beat Group of 5 James Madison 51-34 in the playoff opener while allowing a whopping 509 total yards.  And last week's 23-0 win over Texas Tech was very misleading.  The Red Raiders gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  Their rust showed, especially QB Behren Morton.  The Big 12 as a whole was down this season, so that win over the Big 12's best isn't that impressive.

Now they must face the Big Ten's best, a team they already got dominated by at home.  Not only did Indiana beat Indiana 30-20, they did so by overcoming a pick-6 by Heisman Trophy QB Fernando Mendoza.  The Hoosiers held the Ducks to just 267 total yards in the win.  It was an even more dominant result than the final score showed, and it was in Autzen Stadium on the road.  Now the Hoosiers will be playing in Atlanta here in the Peach Bowl and will no question have the home-field advantage with more fans in attendance.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in 12 of their last 13 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Oregon, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.  The Hoosiers have ran the ball on everyone, and they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Bet Indiana Friday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -3

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with six straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 9.7 points per game in those six games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

If everyone though that was a fluke, they proved them wrong again by manhandling Ohio State on both sides of the football in a dominant 24-14 win in the quarterfinals.  They held the Buckeyes to 45 rushing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 1.9 yards per carry.  

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country.  The Hurricanes rank 5th allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 6th at 2.8 yards per carry.  They are 3rd in the country averaging 3.3 sacks per game.  They had 7 sacks against Texas A&M and 5 sacks against Ohio State.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  He had 90 rushing yards on 19 carries against Ohio State.  After facing those two defenses and handling them, the Hurricanes actually take a big step down in class here against this suspect Ole Miss defense.

The Rebels rank 38th in total defense at 340.1 yards per game, 41st at 5.2 yards per play, 62nd allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game and 49th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.  Georgia's RB Nate Frazier had 86 rushing yards on 15 carries before leaving with an injury.  That really changed the game and allowed the Rebels to come back in the 2H as they finally got a few stops on Georgia in a 39-34 upset win.

Georgia's weakness was getting after the opposing QB with pressure, and Ole Miss was able to take advantage of it with Trinidad Chambliss making all kinds of plays off script deep down the field.  Those plays won't be there against this Miami defense, which will get home much more than Georgia and Tulane did.  And Miami's defense will be the difference in this game.

Carson Beck will have his best game of the playoffs yet as he takes a big step down in class here against this Ole Miss defense.  Beck hasn't had to do much because the Hurricanes have been so dominant with their defense and running game.  They will control the game again for four quarters with their defense and running game, and Beck will make the plays necessary which he has thus far.  

Ole Miss is dealing with a ton of distractions with coaches spending time game-planning for the playoffs while also recruiting at LSU for Lane Kiffin.  Several of their coaches won't be allowed to coach in this game, and really only offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss is still with the team.  They've had extra time coming into their last two games, but now they are on a short week here after playing last Thursday, while Miami has an extra day of prep playing last Wednesday.  That's a small advantage that could make a big difference in this game.

I also think Ole Miss despite being distracted has benefited from having played Tulane twice AND Georgia twice.  They already had the scouting reports on both teams, which made the game planning much easier.  They have nothing on Miami and only 6 days to get ready for the Hurricanes.  They won't be ready for the physicality the Hurricane brings as they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Their defense is also great at taking away the quick passing game that Ole Miss relies on.  The Hurricanes are the better, more rested and focused team and it will show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.  Bet Miami Thursday.

20* Navy/Cincinnati Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Navy -4

For starters, Service Academies like Navy are 19-3 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Navy in the Liberty Bowl today.

The Bearcats don't want to be here.  They lost four straight games to close out the season when they were in contention for a Big 12 title.  They have had at least a dozen players opt out of this bowl game, most notably QB Brendan Sorsby, who is listed by 247Sports as the top-ranked QB in the transfer portal.

Sorsby is completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 580 yards and 9 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  It's a major blow as now the Bearcats are down to four-year senior Brady Lichtenberg who has 333 career passing yards and freshman Samaj Jones, who has just 2 pass attempts this season.

The losses are huge on defense, where almost the entire secondary is following CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.  The Bearcats will be without S Christian Harrison (66 taclkes, 1 INT), S Trevon Gola-Collard (71 tackles, 3 PD), S Jiquan Sanks (50 tackles, 4 PD), CB Logan Wilson (35 taclkles, 6 PD), DE Mikah Coleman (33 tackles), CB Ormaine Arnold (16 tackles, 3 PD), S Tayden Barnes (25 tackles) and a couple other depth pieces.  DE Dontay Corleone has declared for the NFL Draft.

The weakness of this Cincinnati defense is against the run where they allow 173.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  The Bearcats allowed 228 or more rushing yards in four of their final six games.  That's bad news for them going up against this potent Navy triple-option, which ranks 1st in the country at 289.3 rushing yards per game and 4th at 5.8 per carry.

Navy Senior QB Blake Horvath wants to finish his career strong as arguably the best QB in program history.  He has rushed for 1,147 yards and 15 TD, but he's the best passer they have ever had completing 61.1% of his passes for 1,472 yards and 10 TD this season.  He will have a huge game as the Midshipmen run away with this one.  Bet Navy Friday.

25* CFB Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State -14

Texas State fought hard down the stretch to make a bowl game after a 3-6 start.  They went 3-0 in their final three games with blowout wins over Southern Miss 41-14, LA-Monroe 31-14 and South Alabama 49-26.  Now they will be extra motivated to finish it off with a winning record.

Texas State is arguably the best 6-6 team in the country when you look at the numbers.  The Bobcats went 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so they were very close to being a 10-2 team.  Their only two blowout losses came to Arizona State and James Madison, one of the best teams in the Big 12 plus a playoff team.

Texas State averages 476.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 399.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play on defense.  The Bobcats are outgaining opponents by 77 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play, which is the sign of a team that is much better than 6-6.

I'll gladly lay the big number here with the Bobcats because they have an elite, up-tempo offense and will keep pouring on the points for four quarters.  They rank 12th in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.3 yards per game and 16th at 6.7 per play.  They don't have anyone significant in the transfer portal.

Rice only got an invite to this bowl game with a 5-7 record because other teams opted out.  I don't think the Owls even want to be here.  The Owls started 3-1 but dropped six of their final eight games, including blowout losses to North Texas 56-24 and South Florida 52-3 in their final two games.

QB Chase Jenkins hit the transfer portal, a player this putrid Rice offense could not afford to be without.  He threw for 1,025 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and five scores.  His dual-threat ability was the only thing saving this offense.  Even with Jenkins, the Owls ranks 112th in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 311.2 yards per game and 130th at 4.6 yards per play.  They have no chance to keep up with Texas State in this one.

Making matters worse for the offense is they will be without second-leading receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TD) and RB Daelen Alexander (392 yards, 3 TD).  The Owls also lost to UTSA by 48 and Memphis by 24 down the stretch.  They allowed 34 or more points in five of their final six games.  They are prone to getting blown out, and they will get blown out by a better, more motivated Bobcats team today.  Bet Texas State Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Georgia Sugar Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Georgia -6

This will be a rematch from a 43-35 home win by Georgia over Ole Miss on October 18th.  Georgia didn't punt once, outgained Ole Miss 510 to 351, or by 159 total yards, and made the 2H adjustments which they have been doing all season to stymie the Ole Miss offense.  Now having seen that offense and with extra prep time, I fully expect Kirby Smart to come up with the proper game plan to slow it down again in the rematch.

That 2H performance against Ole Miss propelled Georgia to a big finish to the season.  Gunnar Stockton went 26-of-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 TD, while also rushing for 59 yards and a score in the win.  And while I trust Stockton and this offense to have another big game in the rematch, it's the improvement of this Georgia defense that has me really high on this team in this matchup.

The Bulldogs have allowed a total of just 70 points in six games since beating Ole Miss, an average of just 11.7 points per game.  They held Texas to 10 points, Charlotte to 3, Georgia Tech to 9 and Alabama to 7 in their last four games coming in.  You could argue the Bulldogs are playing as well as anyone in the country defensively right now.

While Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, the Rebels have a suspect defense that won't allow them to compete for four quarters with Georgia.  They rank 40th in total defense at 43rd at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 64th in rushing defense allowing 147.8 yards per game and 70th at 4.3 yards per carry allowed.  Georgia will get whatever it wants offensively, again.

Ole Miss was able to handle Tulane 41-10 at home in the playoff opener.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Ole Miss allowed 421 total yards to Tulane and only outgained them by 76 yards for the game.  The Rebels were fine without head coach Lane Kiffin for that game, but I don't trust their staff in key moments in this game against Georgia.

Many of the coaches on this staff will be joining Kiffin at LSU once this season is over.  They have been going back and forth between Ole Miss and LSU with one foot out the door.  That can only be a distraction.  Plus, new head coach Pete Golding hasn't been in this position before and will be making some tough decisions against Georgia that I just don't know if he's ready for.  I know Kirby Smart will be ready for it.  Bet Georgia Thursday.

15* Alabama/Indiana Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

If Alabama had the stats Indiana has and vice versa, Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Indiana.  But because of their names on their jerseys and the failure for most to believe what Indiana is doing, we are getting the Hoosiers at a discount as only 7-point favorites over the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana proved itself worthy going on the road and beating Oregon by 10 and upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on a neutral.  The Hoosiers have elite numbers, averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.5 yards per play.

Alabama has weak numbers averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  And the Crimson Tide have gotten worse as the season has gone on when you dive into the numbers.

In their last five games, the Crimson Tide lost outright at home to Oklahoma before a cruising win over Eastern Illinois.  They were fortunate to beat Auburn, getting outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 total yards.  They then lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  And although they beat Oklahoma 34-24 on the road in the rematch, it was the most misleading final of the first round.  They were outgained 362 to 260 by the Sooners, or by 102 yards.  They benefited from a pick-6 and two missed FG's by Oklahoma.

The most shocking stat about Alabama that gives them no chance here is rushing for 80 or fewer yards in five of their last seven games.  They were held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia and 28 rushing yards on 25 carries by Oklahoma in their last two games.  They cannot run the football, and being one-dimensional doesn't work against Indiana.  WR Ryan Williams has been a non-factor for Alabama, too.  

It's supposed to rain throughout the Rose Bowl, and not being able to run the ball will be a huge disadvantage for the Crimson Tide.  Indiana has tremendous balance ranking 11th in rushing at 221.2 yards per game and 46th in passing at 251.6 yards per game.  You can run on this Alabama defense, which ranks 27th at 120.6 rushing yards per game allowed.  You cannot run on this Indiana defense, which ranks 3rd allowing 77.6 rushing yards per game and just held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They also held Oregon to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, which were the two best rushing attacks they faced all season.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* Oregon/Texas Tech Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2.5

Texas Tech has been disrespected all season.  The Red Raiders are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in college football.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as underdogs to Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

The Red Raiders made the most out of their massive NIL fund and have some of the best talent in the country, which is why this is no fluke.  In particular, their defense is a juggernaut.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 254.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.

What I really like about this matchup against Oregon is the Red Raiders rank 1st in rushing yards per game allowed at 68.5 and 1st at 2.3 yards per rush allowed.  The Ducks need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Red Raiders are going to shut down their running game and make Dante Moore try and beat them through the air.  They did the same thing in consecutive blowout wins against BYU, shutting down their running game and Bear Bachmeir couldn't beat them through the air.

I also think the ceiling for this Texas Tech offense is even higher than what we've seen all season simply because QB Behren Morton wasn't healthy, playing with a hairline fracture in his fibula.  He was in a walking boot most the season and only got in one practice each week in every game he started.  And in the only game they lost, Will Hammond was the QB against Arizona State, and the Sun Devils needed a lot of good fortune to beat them late in that game.

The 26-day layoff since the Big 12 Championship Game has done wonders for Morton.  He is out of his walking boot for the first time since suffering the injury.  "This whole bowl prep has been really good for me," Morton said. "I've been basically a hundred percent in practice as far as team reps. I haven't been able to do team reps really all season long. ... Just getting the body back to playing football again -- it's been a while since I've gotten to do that."

"Staying in a boot the whole entire week, not getting to practice, then taking the boot off on Saturday and getting to play, it was not fun at all," said Morton, who said coach Joey McGuire granted him one day of practice prior to the Big 12 title game against BYU.

The Ducks lost both coordinators to coaching jobs which is a distraction in bowl prep.  Dan Lanning has yet to win a big game and time and time again comes up short in key moments of close games.  He is a great recruiter and motivator, but he hasn't proven himself as a great game manager yet.

Against the four best defenses Oregon faced this season in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks were held to an average of 20 points per game, 300 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Their offense can be stopped, and their defense certainly isn't as good as Texas Tech.  That was evident when they allowed 509 total yards to James Madison in their 51-34 home win in the first round of the college football playoff.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Miami/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

Ohio State is getting too much respect for winning the national title last season.  It's very hard to go back-to-back, and we saw chinks in their armor in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with five straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 8.8 points per game in those five games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

Ohio State benefited from a very easy schedule.  In their two biggest step up games against Texas and Indiana, they were outgained 376 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 173 total yards.  They were also outgained 342 to 324 by the Hoosers, or by 18 yards.  They were held to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries by Indiana.

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country and can shut down that Ohio State rushing attack as well.  The Hurricanes rank 7th allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 9th at 2.9 yards per carry.  They are 6th in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game, and they will get after the overrated Julian Sayin, who did not perform well in those Texas and Indiana games.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  They will get him going again, and the conditions will be much more favorable for QB Carson Beck indoors to have a better game here.  I trust his experience and trust him to make the right plays against this vaunted Ohio State defense to keep the Hurricanes in this game for four quarters.

The total has been set around 40 for this game so it is expected to be a defensive battle.  Getting 9.5 points in a game with such a low total is a tremendous value.  I think this game is much closer than the odds suggest, and it would take a couple catastrophic mistakes from Miami to get blown out here.  Player for player, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the country that has the talent to match the Buckeyes.  Bet Miami Wednesday.

15* Michigan/Texas Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5

This is more of a fade of Texas than it is a play on Michigan.  The Longhorns made the 12-team playoff semifinals each of the last two seasons.  They felt slighted that they didn't get in this season, and I just don't think they care at all about the Citrus Bowl.

That's evident by the alarming amount of opt-outs and transfers the Longhorns have leading into this bowl game.  They will be without seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count.  They will be without S Michael Taaffe (70 tackles, 2 INT), LB Liona Lefau (68 tackles), CB Malik Muhammad (30 tackles, 2 INT), CB Jaylon Guilbeau (40 tackles, 1 INT), LB Anthony Hill (70 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), EDGE Trey Moore (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and EDGE Ethan Burke (40 tackles, 3 sacks) and S Derek Williams Jr. (23 tackles).  That also means they will be without eight of their top 13 tacklers.

Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their top three RB's, OL Connor Stroh and WR DeAndre Moore (38 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TD).  Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski as well.  The Longhorns are a mess heading into this bowl game, and they shouldn't be favored by more than a TD against a Michigan team that will have almost all hands on deck.

Interim head coach Biff Poggi has done a great job of keeping this team together amidst the Sherrone Moore scandal.  Head head coach Kyle Whittingham was able to convince most of these players to stay, including 5-star QB Byrce Underwood, who will play in the Citrus Bowl.  In fact, the Wolverines are only expected to be without 3 starters in EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham and LG Giovanni El-Hadi as all three prepare for the NFL Draft.  Everyone made the trip to Orlando except the three opt-outs and expect a very full roster.

Poggi went 2-0 as head coach taking over for a suspended Moore this season.  The players love him and will play hard for him, and motivation is everything in bowl games.  "I was kind of stunned for a while," Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan said. "I didn't know what to think. But at the end of the day, we're still the same team. One person doesn't define who we are. I'm not going to let what happened define me. And I know the rest of the team isn't also going to let that happen."

The Big Ten is 6-1 SU against the SEC over the last two seasons in bowl games.  I think the Big Ten takes more pride in these head-to-head matchups because everyone around the country claims the SEC is better.  They take it personal, and Michigan will take pride in trying to knock off Texas in the Citrus Bowl as well.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Vanderbilt NYE Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are like a service academy.  They are always going to show up in bowl games with basically all hands on deck and minimal opt outs.  That's the kind of program they run at Iowa, and that's the kind of team you want to back in bowl season.  They have zero opt outs this season with all hands on deck.

“They love playing together, and they couldn't imagine being out there without the guy next to him, and it's such a unbelievable bond," offensive coordinator Tim Lester said of his Hawkeyes team.

"It's what football's supposed to be like. And I don't even think it crossed anyone's mind. We’re all going out there, we're going to go out there and play together. That's the program that coach (Ferentz) runs. And it's awesome to be a part of.”

Iowa may be the best 8-4 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes' four losses this season all came by 5 points or fewer and to Top 20 teams at the time they played them.  They were actually tied or leading in the 4th quarter of all four of those losses, too.  That includes a 5-point loss to Indiana and a 2-point loss to Oregon, two playoff teams with a legit shot to win the national title.

I question Vanderbilt's motivation for this bowl game after the Commodores thought they'd have a shot at winning a national title, too.  Instead, they were left out of the 12-team playoff despite a 10-2 record in what is perceived as the best conference in football in the SEC.  If Alabama or Georgia were 10-2 with the same schedule, they would have gotten in.  But because they are lowly Vanderbilt, they did not get in.

I know the Commodores have very few opt outs, but the one they do have is a big one.  TE Eli Stowers (61 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) won the Mackey Award as the nation's best tight end.  He is by far Diego Pavia's favorite target.  Speaking of Pavia, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting and complained about voters afterwards.  I think his own team is getting tired of his act.  The Hawkeyes have extra motivation to get after him and shut him up as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

20* USC/TCU Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on TCU +6.5

The only reason this line is as high as it is is because TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play.  But the Horned Frogs look to have everyone else prepared to play in this game and finish the season strong.  And I don't think the loss of Hoover hurts TCU more than all the opt-outs for USC.  And I have no doubt TCU wants to be playing in this bowl game more than USC does, and motivation is everything in bowl season.

The Horned Frogs will be in good hands with 5th-year Senior QB Ken Seals.  He started 22 games in the SEC at Vanderbilt.  He has thrown for 4,413 yards and 29 TD in his career, and he played on some very bad Vanderbilt teams.  He has way more weapons around him at TCU to be successful, especially with leading WR Eric McCalister (64 receptions, 1,121 yards, 10 TD) and TE DJ Rogers (32 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TD) both electing to play in this bowl game.

Three key defenders in S Jamel Johnson (89 tackles, 4 INT), S Bud Clark (54 tackles, 4 INT) and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Leading tackler, 119 tackles, 4 sacks) were all potential opt-outs who are all going to play in this game bowl.  I think the amount of participation they are getting from all of their top plays says everything you need to know about how much this Alamo Bowl in their home state of Texas means to this team.

"It feeds into next year. We want to leave this place better than how we found it," Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It was us coming together one more time. It's just a blessing and something we wanted to do."

"We have a tremendous culture, and again, I think it revealed itself at the end of the year, in the fact that our guys played so hard down the stretch and it meant something to them," Dykes said of a team that finished the regular season with wins over then-No. 23 Houston and Cincinnati.

"Ken started 22 games in the SEC," Dykes said. "He's been a great teammate, a great practice player. Now he's going to get a chance to go perform on the big stage. He's excited about it, our team believes in him, and we've moving on quickly."

USC has a laundry list of opt-outs and will be a shell of itself for this bowl game.  The Trojans will be without their top three receivers in Makai Lemon (79 receptions, 1,156 yards, 11 TD), Ja'Kobi Lane (49 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) and TE Lake McRee (30 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD).  Starting LT Elijah Paige and C Killian O'Connor, their two best linemen, won't play due to injury.  QB Jayden Maiava will play, but he has almost no chance to be successful behind this offensive line and without those weapons.

The Trojans lost defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn to Penn State, and he was the main reason they had an improved defense this season.  The Trojans will be without a handful of key defenders in LB Eric Gentry (76 taclkes, 3 sacks), S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles), EDGE Anthony Lucas (37 tackles, 3 sacks), DT Keeshawn Silver (17 tackles) and DE Jahkeem Stewart (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks).  What a mess.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Illinois Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Illinois +3.5

After making the 12-team playoff last season, I question how motivated the Tennessee Volunteers will be to be playing in the Music City Bowl this season.  And given all their opt outs coming into this game, it's easy to see they will be a shell of their regular season selves for this game.

Tennessee will be without leading WR Chris Brazzell II (62 receptions, 1,017 yards, 9 TD) as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  They will also be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (76 tackles), DE Joshua Josephs (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Colton Hood (50 tackles, 1 INT).  They were already without their top two corners due to injury all season.

No question Illinois is excited to be here.  That is evident by their lack of opt outs as the only key guy they will be missing is LB Gabe Jacas.  QB Luke Altmyer (68.1% completions, 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio) and two of his favorite targets in WR Hank Beatty (Leading receiver, 64 receptions, 826 yards, 3 TD) and TE Tanner Arkin have decided to play in this game.

Altmyer recalls attending the 2011 Music City Bowl to root on his hometown team, Mississippi State. "These bowl games are very, very core memories for families, for myself, for the guys obviously," Altmyer said. "It's something I don't take for granted. It's going to stick with me forever, so I'm going to give it my best to make it a good one."

Altmyer and company should light up this short-handed Tennessee defense.  The Vols were last seen allowing 582 total yards in a 45-24 home loss to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.  They didn't show up for that game, and I don't expect them to show up for this game, either.  Illinois will be the team playing with more intensity and that's everything in bowl season.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* North Texas/San Diego State New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on North Texas -6

North Texas should have almost all hands on deck for this bowl game.  That makes the Mean Green a potent team, one that came up just short of making the 12-team playoff.  Eric Morris wanted to coach the bowl game, but the rest of the staff remains intact for it so there still should be good chemistry heading into this game.

"These guys are locked in," North Texas interim coach Drew Svoboda said. "Initially, obviously, coming off a loss in the American Conference championship game, there was a lot of disappointment in that locker room. When we brought everybody back and had a chance to get all these guys together and talk about the goal and what's still in front of this football team, we realized they're excited to play."

The Mean Green are motivated to end a 7-game bowl losing streak with their last bowl win coming in 2013.  QB Drew Mestemaker led the nation with 4,129 yards and 31 TD, and RB Caleb Hawkins is a monster with 1,226 rushing yards and 23 TD, plus 345 receiving yards and another 3 scores.  They lead a Mean Green offense that ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and 1st in total offense at 504.3 yards per game.

Given all the guys San Diego State will be missing on offense, I give the Aztecs no chance of keeping up with the Mean Green.  QB Jayden Denegal had surgery at the end of the season and is out.  That leaves Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. at QB, and he has only attempts 9 passes all season.  Leading receiver Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) is out, as is fellow WR Jacob Bostick.

The Aztecs to have a great defense, but they are likely going to be without CB Chris Johnson (48 tackles, 9 PD), LB Owen Chambliss (105 tackles, 4 sacks) and EDGE Trey White (43 tackles, 7 sacks).  Those are their three best defenders.  They are also without the architect of that defense in coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for the same job at Nebraska.  Rumors are Chambliss and White will both follow him to Nebraska, and Johnson is likely to sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

San Diego State ranks 106th in total offense at 341.8 yards per game this season.  This offense has been really poor down the stretch once injuries hit them.  The Aztecs have averaged just 16.3 points per game in their last four games and haven't topped 25 points in any of their last six games.  I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Mean Green, who are going to score.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* UConn/Army Fenway Bowl No-Brainer on Army -6.5

For starters, Service Academies like Army are 18-3 SU & 18-3 ATS in their last 21 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Army in the Fenway Bowl today.

UConn lost head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State.  Gone with him are so many key players.  They will be down four starting offensive linemen and QB Joe Fagnano, who was one of the best QB's in the country.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,441 yards with a 28-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Huskies will be down to a 4th stringer at QB.

Army will run wild in the triple-option against this terrible UConn defense, which allows 185.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Huskies rank 114th against the run.  Army has a very good defense that ranks 45th in scoring at 22.1 points per game and 50th in total defense at 349.9 yards per game.  They are finally fully healthy on defense with the return of CB Justin Weaver and their top two interior defensive linemen.

I also like the fact that Army sits at 6-6 on the season.  There's a big difference between 7-6 and 6-7 as teams always want to finish with a winning record over a losing record.  It's not like they need the extra motivation, but they will easily be the more motivated team today, which is everything in bowl season.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* FIU/UTSA First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 59.5

Both teams are decimated by opt outs and injuries on defense.  Both teams have almost all hands on deck on offense.  This First Responder Bowl figures to be a shootout due to all the players that won't be playing on defense.  The forecast also favors a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.

FIU wil be without their entire secondary basically.  CB Brian Blades (26 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT), CB Mister Clark (59 tackles, 13 PD, 3 INT), CB Victor Evans (42 tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT), FS Jessiah McGrew (67 tackles, 4 INT) are four starters who will all be out.  The Panthers should have all hands on deck on offense including both QB's and RB Owens (1,298 yards, 11 TD).

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said his defense will be without at least 6 or 7 starters.  But the offense is in much better shape led by QB Owen McCown, who is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,695 yards and a 27-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

FIU is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 86 combined points with Middle Tennessee, 61 with Liberty and 72 with Sam Houston State.  UTSA is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 82 combined points with ECU, 78 with USF, 74 with Tulane, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Rice.  This total is too short given all the opt outs defensively plus how these teams trended down the stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

The biggest reason I'm on the OVER in this game is due to Cal's change of philosophy since interim head coach Nick Rolovich took over.  The former Hawaii head coach is the offensive coordinator of the Golden Bears.  He has been going more up-tempo and pass-happy since taking over.

We really saw that play out in the regular season finale with the Golden Bears pulling the 38-35 upset of SMU for 73 combined points.  The Golden Bears ran 77 plays and put up 450 total yards on a solid SMU defense.  The threw 40 times against SMU and 50 times against Stanford the game prior.

I also like the OVER because neither team can run the football, so this game will be played through the air.  Cal averages 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Hawaii averages 104.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Both coaches know they are almost wasting downs trying to run the football at this point.

The good news is both offenses can rely on reliable QB's to move the ball through the air.  Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele is completing 63.5% of his passes for 3,109 yards with a 17-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season for Cal.  The native of Hawaii will be looking to show out in front of all his fans back at home.  He's actually good friends with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado, who is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Both are allowing more yards per play than their opponents average on offense.  Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  Hawaii has two key injuries on defense in LB Jamih Otis (59 tackles) and CB Virdel Edwards (26 tackles, 5 PD).  

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses in this fast-paced shootout on Christmas Eve where both QB's put on a show for their home fans.  Cal and its opponents have combined for at least 52 points in six of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve No-Brainer on Hawaii ML -110

For starters, Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Rainbow Warriors have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They will have no problem getting up for this standalone game on Christmas Eve to beat a Power 4 opponent in Cal.

These teams have two common opponents in Stanford and San Diego State.  Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and San Diego State 38-6, while Cal lost to San Diego State 34-0 and lost to Stanford 31-10.  Those results against common opponents show that the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the better team.

Hawaii has blowout home wins over Utah State by 18, San Diego State by 32 and Wyoming by 20 in its last three home games.  The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game and outgaining them by 103 yards per game at home this season.

While Hawaii has pretty much all hands on deck with the exception of WR Jackson Davis to the transfer portal, Cal is in limbo with head coach Justin Wilcox fired and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will take over next season.

Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  TE Mason Mini (35 receptions, 387 yards, 4 TD) and WR Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, 2 TD) are injured.  The Golden Bears cannot run the ball averaging just 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry this season.  That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sagapolutele to make plays.

I'll gladly back the team in the better mindset knowing head coach Timmy Chang and QB Micah Alejado will return next season to lead this squad.  Alejado was one of the best freshman QB's in the country this season, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He should have his way with this Cal defense.  Bet Hawaii on the money line Wednesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky/Southern Miss OVER 57.5

Two up-tempo teams who are much better on offense than they are on defense square off in the New Orleans Bowl Tuesday night.  This bowl game will be played indoors on the fast track at the Superdome and it will be an absolute shootout.

Southern Miss ranks 11th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  The Eagles lose head coach Charlie Huff to Memphis, but offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will coach the bowl game and has been hired as their head coach next season.  The Eagles had almost no opt-outs and the only two players that could miss are both on defense in S Corey Myrick (82 tackles) and CB Josh Moten (57 tackles, 5 INT).

This Southern Miss defense has been getting absolutely shredded down the stretch.  The Eagles allowed 28 points and 428 total yards to one of the worst offenses in the country in Troy in their regular season finale.  They allowed 42 points and 449 total yards to a poor South Alabama team the game prior.  And they allowed 41 points and 449 yards to Texas State.

Senior QB Braylon Braxton was banged up down the stretch, so getting this extra time off to recover has been huge.  Braxton is completing 65.2% of his passes for 2,795 yards with a 23-to-7 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He leads a Southern Miss offense that is averaging 29.8 points per game on the season.

"He looks better now than he has looked in a very long time," Anderson said of Braxton. "I'm very encouraged that we can open things back up. What makes Braylon so hard to defend is his ability to create. We had to be very, very vanilla with what we were doing. We weren't as effective as we needed to be. I expect him to be much more like himself (against the Hilltoppers)."

Western Kentucky ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Hilltoppers are scoring 29.8 points per game and averaging 405.4 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  I don't think there's a drop off from either QB as Maverick McIvor (67.3% completions) and Rodney Tisdale (67.7% completions) both played well.  McIvor is healthy enough to play for the bowl game, and the Hilltoppers will have the element of surprise and may even play both.

This WKU defense is atrocious.  In their regular season finale with a trip to the C-USA title game at stake, they lost a 37-34 shootout to Jacksonville State for 71 combined points where they allowed a whopping 515 total yards to the Gamecocks.  They also allowed 539 total yards to a very bad Middle Tennessee team the conference game prior in a 42-26 shootout for 68 combined points.  This total of 57.5 is too short as both offenses will have their way with both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* James Madison/Oregon CFB Playoff No-Brainer on James Madison +21.5

There's a 60% chance of rain in Eugene Saturday night.  That will help keep this game on the ground and keep scoring suppressed.  The total has already been bet down to 47 as of this writing, and in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game, that benefits the underdog especially one catching 21.5 points with that small of a total.

Oregon has no motivation to get margin here.  It's just win and get out.  Oregon needs to be able to run the football to be effective offensively, and few defenses in the country are equipped to stop the run quite like this James Madison crew.  Oregon is 12th in the country at 218.4 rushing yards per game.

The reason James Madison is here is because of its defense.  The Dukes rank 8th in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 247.6 yards per game and 4th at 4.1 yards per play.  But particularly helpful for this matchup is the Dukes ranking 2nd in the country against the run at 76.2 yards per game and 3rd at 2.5 yards per carry.  They are legitimately one of the best run defenses in the country and can stack up against any of the best Power 5 teams against the run.

I also like that James Madison is a methodical, run-heavy offense that will try and shorten this game simply by taking every second off the clock they can before they snap the football.  It's their best path to being competitive and they know it.  The Dukes rank 122nd in tempo snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  That is really slow when you consider they were going for style points the entire 2H of the season on offense.  

Oregon is in no hurry either, ranking 103rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  I can see them sitting on the ball in the 2H.  Getting 21.5 points here in what will be a defensive battle is tremendous value.  James Madison held Louisville to just 264 total yards on the road back when Louisville was fully healthy early in the season.  They can hang with Oregon and will be out to prove it.  They aren't just happy to be here, especially with all of the talk about how the Group of 5 teams don't belong leading up to this game.  

Oregon's offensive and defensive coordinators both took head coaching jobs elsewhere.  Both will remain with the team for the playoff run, but you know their entire focus is not with the team as they are trying to recruit players for their new schools.  It has to at least be a little bit of a distraction for both coordinators at the very least.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

25* CFB Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Miami/Texas A&M UNDER 51.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 51.5 ticket between Miami and Texas A&M Saturday in College Station.  There will be 15-25 MPH sustained winds for this one with gusts even higher.  That will make it very difficult for both passing offenses to be effective, and the passing offenses are the weaknesses of both of these teams anyway if they have one.

Miami has been led all season by one of the most elite, talented defenses in the country, especially along the front seven.  The Hurricanes rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game, 10th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game, 8th at 4.5 yards per play, 7th in rushing defense at 86.8 yards per game and 10th at 2.9 yards per carry allowed.

The only two games Miami lost were due to turnovers by QB Carson Beck.  He threw 2 interceptions in a 26-20 (OT) road loss at SMU.  He threw 4 INT in a 24-21 home loss to Louisville.  You can bet Miami is going to try and be more conservative with him in this game especially given the forecast because they don't want him to lose the game for them knowing they have a championship-caliber defense.

Texas A&M ranks 37th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game, 17th in total defense at 309.8 yards per game and 34th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Aggies are also 36th allowing 127.1 rushing yards per game.  They are elite against the pass at 19th at 182.8 yards per game allowed.  Miami would be smart to try and keep the ball on the ground more against this defense.

Texas A&M is 28th in rushing offense at 192.7 yards per game.  They get RB Le'Veon Moss back from injury as he has been out since Week 7.  They are going to want to utilize him.  It looks like both teams are getting reinforcements on defense for this one.  CB Keionte Scott (44 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), NT David Blay (15 tackles) and CB OJ Frederique (10 tackles, 5 PD) are all expected to return from injury for Miami.  S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams should both be back from injury for the Aggies as well.

Miami and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in nine consecutive games heading into this game, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER.  That includes Miami scoring several times late in games looking for style points and they still didn't top 51 combined points in any of their last nine games.  

Texas A&M and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in four of its last five home games.  The only exception was that wild game against South Carolina where they fell behind 30-3 and had to play hurry-up to come back and win.  That's not going to happen here as this will likely be a tight game throughout played close to the vest with the defenses ruling the day.  It's also a 12:00 EST early start time which I love for UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Alabama/Oklahoma CFB Playoff No-Brainer on Oklahoma +1.5

There's no home-field advantage as strong as the college football playoffs.  I don't think it's being factored into this line enough for how big of an advantage it is going to be for the Oklahoma Sooners in HS Football country for a Friday night home game.  It's simply going to be electric in Norman Friday night.

The Sooners are 6-1 at home this season.  They already beat Alabama 23-21 as 6.5-point road dogs, and now are 1.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  I don't think that 5-point adjustment is enough for flipping home fields, especially when you consider the way the Crimson Tide have struggled here down the stretch.

Alabama was not impressive in any of its final three SEC games dating back to that 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma.  The Crimson Tide did outgain the Sooners heavily due to holding onto the ball for most the game but not doing much with it.  They only outgained the Sooners 4.4 to 4.2 yards per play for the game, which is the more important stat rather than total yards.

Alabama was lucky to beat Auburn 27-20 as 7-point road favorites.  The Crimson Tide were outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 yards.  They were also outgained 5.5 yards per play to 3.8 yards per play by the Tigers, who were with an interim head coach and just playing out the string.

Then last time out Alabama lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  They were held to 209 total yards by the Bulldogs and this game was over by halftime.  It's clear that QB Ty Simpson is playing through injury and just hasn't been very good at all with that injury.  And the Crimson Tide are one of the worst rushing teams in the SEC, so they are giving him no help on the ground.  Simpson went 19-of-35 for 122 yards against Auburn, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.  He went 19-of-39 for 212 yards against Georgia, averaging just 5.4 per attempt.  He got most his yardage in garbage time, too.

It's not going to get any easier for Simpson up against arguably the best defense in the country in Oklahoma here.  The Sooners rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.9 points per game, 7th in total defense at 273.6 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per play.  John Mateer was also playing with an injured hand in the 2H of the season, and getting these last three weeks off have been huge for him to recover.

I think we see the best version of this Oklahoma offense Friday with a healthy Mateer now.  The Sooners coming off a misleading 17-13 home win over LSU in the regular season finale also has them undervalued.  They played not to lose knowing they just needed a win to get into the playoff.  Now that they are in, I expect the entire playbook to be open for Mateer and company.  

Keep in mind Oklahoma outgained LSU 393 to 198, or by 195 total yards, so it was completely misleading.  Mateer threw for 318 yards and 2 TD, but his 3 INT kept LSU in the game.  I like the fact that he had one of his best passing games of the season from a yardage standpoint.  He really just needs to protect the football here and let his defense win the game again, but I know he's capable of making the plays when necessary to get the Sooners the win.

Oklahoma has a huge advantage in special teams over Alabama.  The Sooners have Lou Groza award winner Tate Sandell, who went 7-for-7 on 50-plus yard FG's as part of his 23-of-24 (96%) for the season.  Alabama has one of the worst kickers in the country in Conor Salty, who went 13-of-20 (65%) on FG's this season including a miss on his only attempt over 50.  That's a really poor percentage when you consider he only attempted one long kick all season.  This game could easily come down to the kicking game.

Oklahoma got good injury news with DE R Mason Thomas (9 TFL, 6 sacks) returning for the first time since Week 10.  He's like a first-round draft pick.  Alabama got bad news with DE LT Overton (35 tackles, 4 sacks) ruled out for this game.  That's just another hidden advantage for the Sooners heading into this one.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* Missouri State/Arkansas State Xbox Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

One hidden advantage here to backing the OVER is that the Xbox Bowl will be played indoors at the Ford Center at the Star, which is the practice facility of the Dallas Cowboys.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout, and both teams have been trending OVER to close out the season.

Missouri State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games.  The Bears beat UTEP 38-24 for 62 combined points.  They racked up 436 total yards in victory.  They lost 41-34 to Kennesaw State for 75 combined points.  They had 535 total yards while allowing 500 yards to the Owls.  And last time out they lost 42-30 to Louisiana Tech for 72 combined points.  They had 416 yards but allowed 475 to the Bulldogs, including 388 rushing.

Arkansas State is 2-0 OVER in its last two games.  The Red Wolves lost 34-30 to Louisiana for 64 combined points.  They had 394 total yards in defeat.  They won 30-29 at App State to become bowl eligible in their finale for 59 combined points.  They had 448 total yards while allowing 453 yards to the Mountaineers.

I love that both teams have veteran QB's who are going to ball out in this bowl game.  Missouri State senior QB Jacob Clark is one of the more underrated QB's in the country.  He has completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,895 yards with a 24-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  Arkansas State junior QB Jaylen Raynor has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,076 yards with a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 439 yards and seven scores.

Both offenses are ahead of both defenses.  Arkansas State ranks 108th in total defense at 416 yards per game and 116th at 6.1 yards per play.  Missouri State ranks 88th in scoring defense at 28.3 points per game, 72nd in total defense at 384.8 yards per game and 97th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears are 112th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, while the Red Wolves are 103rd at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Louisiana/Delaware Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61.5

Delaware is a dead nuts OVER team with a very good, pass-happy offense that plays fast and a terrible defense.  The Blue Hens are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points four times.  This total of 61.5 is too short for a bowl game involving Delaware.

Louisiana is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Rajin Cajun's have a very good rushing attack on offense that will give Delaware problems.  It's a Delaware defense that recently allowed 255 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, 282 to Liberty and 263 to Wake Forest.  The Blue Hens rank 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Louisiana ranks 108th in the country allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Most concerning is the fact that the Rajin' Cajuns just allowed 516 total yards to Louisiana-Monroe in their season finale.  ULM is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranking 120th in total offense and 130th in scoring this season.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Delaware offense is going to do to this suspect Louisiana defense tonight.  The Blue Hens rank 26th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  QB Nick Minicuccci has thrown for 3,495 yards and 22 TD while also rushing for 10 scores.  They are coming off a 61-31 home win over UTEP for 92 combined points to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.

Louisiana has scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games to close out the season during its current 4-game winning streak to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  So both teams are riding their offense to the finish, and both teams will ride their offense in this bowl game.  Both teams should get into the 30's in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Wednesday.

20* Boise State/Washington 2025 Bowl Season Opener on OVER 52

The Boise State Broncos got QB Maddux Madsen back from injury in the MWC Championship Game and it made all the difference for their offense.  Madsen led the Broncos to a 38-21 victory over the UNLV Rebels in cold, rainy weather on the Blue Turf.

Now Madsen leads the Broncos in perfect conditions as SoFi Stadium in Inglewood for the LA Bowl.  He showed no ill-effects of injury from his 4-game absence, throwing for 289 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for a score in the win.  He has now had another week to get even healthier and lead this potent Boise State offense.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. had a big season completing 70% of his passes while averaging 8.6 per attempt with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio.  He also rushed for 596 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country.  He is expected to have leading receiver Boston (755 yards, 10 TD) and leading rusher Jonah Coleman (673 yards, 14 TD) for this game as there have been very few opt-outs on either side.  And most of the players that will be missing are on defense.

The Huskies really showed off against lesser competition they face this season like Boise State.  They put up 38 points on Colorado State, 70 on Cal Davis, 59 on Washington State, 38 on Rutgers, 42 on Illinois, 49 on Purdue and 48 on UCLA.  They are averaging 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play on the season, the latter of which ranks 22nd in the country.

The Huskies will hang a big number on this poor Boise State defense that ranks 116th in the country allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the ground.  When the Huskies have been able to run the football, their offense has been virtually unstoppable.  They'll be able to run the ball on the Broncos, and I trust Madsen and company to do their part in keeping up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* North Texas/Tulane AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on North Texas ML -125

North Texas has been undervalued all season.  The Mean Green are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming to South Florida, which I actually believe to be the best team in the AAC but they were done in by close losses.  North Texas is easily the second-best team in the conference, and that will be on display tonight as they take down Tulane and are favored for good reason here on the road.

North Texas has been absolutely dominant with the pedal to the medal in the 2H of the season since that loss to USF to put itself in this position to make the 12-team playoff with a win tonight.  The Mean Green are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games beating UTSA 55-17, Charlotte 54-20, Navy 31-17, UAB 53-24, Rice 56-24 and Temple 52-25.  They have taken no prisoners and will keep their foot on the gas tonight.

Tulane has been far less impressive, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and getting by with several close wins.  There is a common opponent in there in UTSA, which Tulane lost 48-26 to.  And when you compare the numbers of these two teams, it's easy to see that North Texas is the better squad.

The Mean Green average 7.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the country.  Tulane averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  Solid numbers, but a far cry from the two best teams in the conference in North Texas and USF.

North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the country at 325.7 yards per game through the air behind Drew Mestemaker (70.6% completions, 3,825 yards, 29 TD/4 INT).  They also rush for 186.1 yards per game with tremendous balance.  This is a terrible matchup for Tulane, which in recent games has allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to Florida Atlantic.  Their weakness is their secondary, and Mestemaker and company will exploit it.  Temps will be in the 50's tonight with no wind so the forecast favors the Mean Green passing attack.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Kennesaw State/Jacksonville State C-USA Championship No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on Jacksonville State three weeks ago, 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State two weeks ago, and 48 points and 452 total yards on Liberty last week.  Kennesaw State is averaging 36.0 points per game in its last seven games.  

I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB here down the stretch.  He is completing 64.7% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and averaging 9.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 379 yards and 7 scores.

The problem for Kennesaw State is their defense, which gets gashed consistently especially on the ground.  Jacksonville State rushed for 252 yards on them, Missouri State 191 and Liberty 291 the last three games.  They are injured at LB which is a big reason for their problems stopping the run.

Jacksonville State has one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook (1,588 yards, 15 TD) and a dual-threat QB in Caden Creel (973 yards, 6.4/carry, 6 TD).  The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country rushing for 262 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 per carry.  They are going to get whatever they want on the ground against this leaky Kennesaw State defense.

Jacksonville State is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Gamecocks won 37-34 at Western Kentucky last game for 71 combined points.  These teams combined for 71 points despite 5 Field Goals between them, so they actually got bogged down in scoring territory several times.  The Gamecocks racked up 515 total yards on WKU.

Kennesaw State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games going for 61 combined points with Jacksonville State, 75 with Missouri State and 90 with Liberty, which was at 70 at the end of regulation.  They had 579 total yards against Jacksonville State in that first meeting and 8 trips to the red zone, which resulted in just 3 TD and 2 FG as they turned it over 5 times.  So that 35-26 loss was a bit misleading and the Owls have a lot more room to put more points on the board in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Troy/James Madison Sun Belt Championship No-Brainer on James Madison -23

James Madison has been going for style points the entire 2nd half of the season knowing if they won out they would be a candidate to make the 12-team playoff.  They have done their part, and they will continue to go for style points tonight against Troy to impress the committee.  That's why I'm willing to lay this 23-point spread, plus several other reasons.

The Dukes are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.  In their last six games, they beat Old Dominion by 36 at home, Texas State by 32 on the road, App State by 48 at home and Coastal Carolina by 49 on the road.  They continued to tack on points late in all of those games.

Old Dominion is easily the second-best team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 63-27.  Texas State is probably the 3rd-most talented team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 52-20 on the road.  Troy is just a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team that was fortunate to make the title game due to playing in the worse division, plus a meltdown by Southern Miss which lost its final three games of the season.  Their reward for making the title game? Get beat down by James Madison.

This is a terrible matchup for Troy.  The Trojans can't run the ball ranking 120th in rushing at 109.2 yards per game and 130th at 3.0 yards per carry.  They will have to rely on the immobile Goose Crowder to throw the football behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.  The Trojans rank dead last in the country in pressure rate allowed and dead last allowing 4.1 sacks per game.  Old Dominion ranks 5th in the country in pressure rate defensively.

Against the only opponent that is even close to JMU talent-wise, Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion three games ago.  They were held to 138 total yards and allowed 503 yards, getting outgained by 365 yards by the Monarchs.  When JMU beat ODU 63-27, the Dukes outgained the Monarchs 624 to 285, or by 339 yards.  Bet James Madison Friday.

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Hawaii after a 38-10 loss at UNLV coming out of their bye last week.  The Rainbow Warriors will want to make amends for that performance in their final regular season game on Senior Night.  I look for them to make easy work of Wyoming tonight.

Hawaii is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes a 38-6 beat down of San Diego State in their last home game, and SDSU is one of the best teams in the conference.  I think the Rainbow Warriors were fat and happy going into their bye week off that win and didn't show up with the same level of focus at UNLV.  They will be refocused tonight.

Wyoming has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing 24-7 to San Diego State, 24-3 to Fresno State and 13-7 to Nevada.  So they have been held to a total of 17 points in their last three games combined.

The Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors, especially since their two best playmakers suffered injuries in their last game and will now be out for this game.  They will be without leading receiver Chris Durr Jr. (46 receptions, 513 yards, 4 TD), and their next-best receiver only has 227 receiving yards so it's a huge loss.  They will also be without their top two RB's in Samuel Harris (552 yards) and Samuel Scott (400 yards).

I just don't know where the offense is going to come from for Wyoming in this game.  I also question their motivation after getting upset by Nevada last week to fall to 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I think they treat this trip to Hawaii more like a vacation than a business trip.  It's all business for the Rainbow Warriors tonight.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* UCLA/USC NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Trojans rank 11th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 5th in total offense at 479.2 yards per game and 6th at 7.2 yards per play.  This despite playing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big Ten play.

The Trojans will come close to covering this total on their own against a UCLA defense that has allowed 48 or more points in three of their last four games to really let go of the rope.  The OVER is 4-0 in UCLA's last four games as a result where they are allowing 45.0 points per game in those four.

It looks like Nico Iamaleava is back at QB this week and he at least gives this UCLA offense a chance.  This is also a big step down in class against this USC defense after having to face Washington, Ohio State and Indiana defenses in three of their last four.  USC is decimated with injuries on defense and just allowed 42 points to Oregon last week.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings and 61 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Look for both offenses to let it all hang out in their final game of the regular season with really nothing at stake for either team.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Northwestern and Illinois.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

These are two very good defenses with Northwestern allowing just 21.0 points per game and Illinois allowing just 24.2 points per game.  The Wildcats rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.3 seconds.  The Fighting Illini are in no hurry either ranking 89th in tempo.  This will be a classic defensive battle in the Big Ten in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this Northwestern +7.5 ticket.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

Illinois needs to be able to throw the ball to be effective on offense, and it won't be able to throw the ball today in these conditions.  The Fighting Illini have struggled running the football all year.  They rank 108th in rushing at 132.2 yards per game and 102nd at 3.8 yards per carry.  Northwestern has been solid against the run allowing 141.8 yards per game.

With this game being played mostly on the ground, it really favors the Wildcats.  They are the better running team ranking 44th at 174 rushing yards per game and 35th at 4.8 yards per carry.  The Fighting Illini allow 127 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

These are two very evenly-matched teams overall so this 7.5-point spread is rich.  Northwestern outgains opponents by 17.3 yards per game while Illinois outgains foes by 17.7 yards per game.  Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/South Florida OVER 57.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They never take their foot off the gas and that has been evident all season with their games flying over the totals because they keep scoring late into games.

The OVER is 7-2 in USF's last nine games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all nine games, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game and 1st in total offense at 497 yards per game.

Rice sits at 5-6 on the season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  That means the Owls are going to keep coming late into this game even if they are down big.  They will keep trying to score and will likely have to increase their tempo in the 2H.  Rice is quietly 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 71 or more combined points three times against similar teams to USF in North Texas (80), UConn (71) and UTSA (74).  

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Tampa with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Maryland/Michigan State OVER 48.5

There is a ton of bad weather across the country with snow and windy conditions especially in the Midwest.  Books have listed this total like it will be played outdoors in those elements.  But that's not the case today as this game will actually be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan on a fast track.  This total of 48.5 is too short tonight as a result.

I love the fact that it will be played indoors, but I also love the fact that both Michigan State and Maryland have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  There will be no defensive intensity from either team as a result, and I think a shootout will ensue as both teams unload the entire playbook in this 'meaningless' game.

Maryland just allowed 45 points to a poor Michigan offense at home last week.  The Terrapins have now allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall and it's not like they've played many good offenses during this stretch.  This is a very bad Michigan State defense as well ranking 113th in scoring allowing 30.1 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Kennesaw State ML -115

Kennesaw State gets into the C-USA Championship Game with a win today.  While the Owls will be max motivated to capture their 9th win of the season and make that title game, the Liberty Flames are just ready for their season to be overall.

The Flames have lost three consecutive games to Missouri State, FIU and Louisiana Tech to fall to 4-7 on the season and out of bowl contention.  What a major disappointment for a team that everyone pick to win Conference USA this season.

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games, and I don't think this Flames offense can keep up.  Bet Kennesaw State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kennesaw State/Liberty OVER 55

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Liberty's offense has come to life here down the stretch averaging 32.2 points per game in its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Flames' last five games with 57 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 55 is too low, especially since Kennesaw State is the best offense they will have faced during this closing stretch.

Kennesaw State is averaging 34.0 points per game in its last six games.  I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB.  He is completing 65.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and averaging 9.4 per attempt, while also rushing for 307 yards and 6 scores.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with no wind and no rain today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 56

Both Penn State and Rutgers sit at 5-6 this season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  Only one team can make it, and I think this game will be played very close to the vest as a result.  Neither team will want to make the big mistake with what's at stake.  This total of 56 is too high.

That's especially the case with Penn State involved.  The Nittany Lions have a suspect offense and an elite defense.  Penn State and its opponents have combined for 52 or fewer points in six consecutive games to close out the season.  This total of 56 is too high for a game involving the Nittany Lions.

This Rutgers offense has been terrible when playing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall largely due to being held to 19 points or fewer in four of those six games, including 13 points or fewer in three of them.  They will get nothing against this Penn State defense, either.

Penn State ranks 111th in the country in tempo and will slow this game to a crawl while controlling it with its running game.  That will keep the clock moving and limit possessions for this Rutgers offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington CBS No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Washington Huskies are playing their best football of the season here down the stretch with consecutive blowout wins over Purdue 49-13 and UCLA 48-14.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and ready to pull off the upset against Oregon today.

Oregon is really banged up right now at WR and offensive line.  We've seen the Ducks struggle against some mediocre Big Ten teams on the road this season.  They needed a last-second FG to beat Iowa 18-16 and needed OT to beat Penn State.  I think this will easily be their toughest road test of the season today.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He is completing 72% of his passes for 2,721 yards while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 569 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the nation.  I think he's ready for his flowers on the National TV stage today giving the Ducks all they can handle.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia OVER 52.5

This is a very low total for two teams that play as fast as West Virginia and Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds under Rich Rodriquez.  The Red Raiders rank 22nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  That's impressive considering they have been blowing almost everyone out, so they never take their foot off the gas.

West Virginia will not be going to a bowl game so this is their 'national championship'.  Rodriquez will pull out all the stops here with trick plays and everything he can throw at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers will keep coming late in this game since it's their last game, so getting the necessary points we need in the 4th quarter will be on the table if we need them.

Texas Tech will come close to covering this total on its own with an offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 42.6 points per game and 18th in total offense at 481.6 yards per game.  The Red Raiders should have their way with a WVU defense that ranks 86th in scoring at 29.2 points per game and 68th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game.

Freshman QB Scottie Fox Jr. has really played well here down the stretch for the Mountaineers since taking over four games ago.  They nearly upset TCU, he led them 45 points against Houston, 29 points against Colorado and threw for 353 yards against Arizona State's vaunted defense last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Central Michigan UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Toledo and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 20's with double-digit wins and a 100% chance of snow during the game.

This game will also be played close to the vest as both Toledo and Central Michigan have a chance to make the MAC Championship Game.  I think both teams will be very conservative with what's at stake, and it will lead to more ball control offense and more punts to try and not make the big mistake.

Central Michigan ranks 135th out of 136th teams in tempo snapping the ball every 31.3 seconds.  Only Ohio State has been slower, and Ohio State plays with big leads every week so it makes sense.  CMU plays slow no matter what.  They also keep the ball on the ground with 43.2 rush attempts per game compared to just 18.1 pass attempts.  That keeps the clock moving and favors UNDERS.

Toledo is in no hurry, either, ranking 88th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  The Rockets boast one of the top defenses in the country.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 241.9 yards per game and 2nd at 3.8 yards per play.  They allow just 93.2 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Central Michigan ranks 38th in scoring defense at 22.8 points per game and 38th in total defense at 353.8 yards per game.  So these are two of the best defenses in the MAC with a lot at stake and two teams that like to play slow.  This sets up for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State Egg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 63.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State play every year in the Egg Bowl, and every year it's more low-scoring than projected.  Both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had two full weeks to prepare for this game.  That favors defense over offense when both teams are as familiar with one another as they are coming into this Egg Bowl.

The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the Egg Bowl finishing with 59 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings.  The last seven have all seen 55 or fewer combined points, and the last three in particular have been very low-scoring with 40 combined points in 2024, 24 in 2023 and 46 in 2022.  These are all with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and his high-octane offenses.

I also like the fact that this game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake for both teams.  Ole Miss is trying to qualify for the 12-team playoff, and a win will get them in.  Mississippi State is 5-6 this season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  I think both teams will be playing tight, which also favors the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +6

Navy is in a three-way tie for 1st place in the AAC with Tulane and North Texas.  This is a must-win for the Midshipmen if they want to play for a AAC title with a chance to make the 12-team playoff if they come out of it victorious.

While I know Navy will be max-motivated Thursday night, I question the motivation of the Memphis Tigers, who already have three losses in AAC play and have been eliminated from title contention.  They were in the driver's seat after an upset home over South Florida, but have fallen flat on their faces losing their last two AAC games 38-32 at home to Tulane and 31-27 at East Carolina.

This Memphis defense in particular has been absolutely shredded in three of its last four games with the exception being Rice, one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Tigers allowed 564 total yards to South Florida, 457 total yards to Tulane and 454 total yards to East Carolina.

Navy is 8-2 this season with its only two losses coming at North Texas and at home against Notre Dame, two teams who could be participating in the 12-team playoff.  The Midshipmen came up big with a 41-38 home win as 10-point dogs to South Florida last time out, racking up 524 total yards in the win.

Navy QB Blake Horvath is back and healthy.  He had a monster game in a 56-44 win over Memphis last season.  Horvath threw for 192 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for 211 yards and 4 scores, totaling 6 touchdowns himself in the win.  You can bet he'll have another monster game against a Memphis defense that has been shredded in recent weeks and one that may just not be all that motivated to handle the physicality that comes with trying to defend the triple-option.  Bet Navy Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/UMass OVER 44.5

UMass is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Minutemen are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 48 or more combined points in all five, and 48 or more combined points in six straight coming into this one.  This total of 44.5 is very low for a game involving UMass.

The Minutemen rank 134th in scoring defense at 37.6 points per game and dead last (136th) in total defense at 440.9 yards per game.  Ohio took it easy on them last week only attempting 8 passes and running 57 times for 363 yards and still scored 42 points.  Northern Illinois and Akron both have terrible offenses, and they scored 45 and 44 points on them, respectively.  Kent State put up 42 points on them as well.

Bowling Green is known for having a bad offense this season, but even the Falcons will find plenty of success against this hapless UMass defense.  I also like the fact that this will be the final game for both teams and both won't be going to a bowl game.  That means the entire playbook is wide open and both offenses will have success.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country.  Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury.  I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience.  He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB.  And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas.  Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far.  Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week.  I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA.  Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo.  It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense.  The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game.  They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense.  I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job.  They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs.  They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty.  That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17.  But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome.  They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it.  The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn.  And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week.  Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games.  I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds.  They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible.  New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST.  With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had.  I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King.  He is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores.  I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment.  He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off.  This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish.  That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time.  Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game.  That leaves his status for this game very much in question.  Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively.  But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.  

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle.  They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late.  I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.  

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2.  If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe.  Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer.  When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6.  And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak.  They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here.  Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston.  The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF.  That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards.  They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times.  You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can.  So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up.  We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road.  They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season.  I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD.  This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup.  The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night.  It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in.  It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team.  Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction.  The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple.  They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job.  They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week.  They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers.  And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago.  They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD.  Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD).  Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season.  The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win.  They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently.  They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss.  Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together.  It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game.  More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play.  The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week.  S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective.  Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine.  They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them.  This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game.  But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks.  The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores.  He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game.  This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long.  Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way.  Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt.  Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.  

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win.  That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico.  In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up.  I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win.  The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State.  They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated.  They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game.  I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game.  Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season.  He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.  

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD.  This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close.  This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday.  That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff.  They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it.  They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses.  They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1.  They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship.  I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury.  Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable.  Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech.  But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson.  They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest.  I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye.  They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense.  Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch.  He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.  

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons.  Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Hawaii/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Hawaii Warriors are rolling since Las Vegas HS legend QB Micah Alejado got healthy.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall scoring 39.0 points per game in those five games with Alejado throwing at least 3 TD passes in all five.  That includes a 38-6 home win over San Diego State as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  They even called off the dogs in the 4th quarter against the the Aztecs, who have one of the best defenses in the country and sit alone in 1st place in the Mountain West.

Now the Warriors return from their bye week refreshed and ready to make a run at the MWC title themselves.  They are in a four-way tie for 2nd place with a real shot to make the title game.  You can bet Alejado will have a ton of friends and family in attendance in his home town of Las Vegas, and this will be a very pro Hawaii crowd because of it.

UNLV is one of the biggest frauds in the country.  The Rebels are 8-2 this season against the 115th schedule.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games with five wins by 7 points or fewer.  That includes their 29-26 (OT) home win over Utah State last week where they were very fortunate to win thanks to three missed field goals and a missed extra point by the Aggies.

Now the Rebels will be on a short week and playing their 4th consecutive game off an OT game.  They are at a big rest disadvantage here facing a Hawaii team off a bye.  No question the Warriors are the better team in this matchup when you look at the numbers as well, and the wrong team is favored.  Hawaii allows 349.1 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season, while UNLV allows 448.6 yards per game and 6.6 per play.  I'll gladly back the better, more rested team as an underdog in this one.  Bet Hawaii Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +9.5

Kent State kept its bowl hopes alive with a 42-35 (OT) home win over Akron last week.  The Golden Flashes sit at 4-6 on the season with a real shot to make a bowl if they win this game tonight.  They have lowly Northern Illinois on deck next week.

It's time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and in contention for the MAC Championship Game now.  The three wins came against Bowling Green, UMass and Buffalo, three of the worst teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan is just 1-4 SU in its last five road games with the lone win coming against Bowling Green who was without its starting QB.  They lost by 6 at Akron for a common opponent.  Kent State is 3-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming by 3 points.

Kent State QB Dru DeShields is grossly underrated.  He has a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He went 17-of-25 for 317 yards against Akron last time out.  I think he'll have what it takes to keep this game competitive against Central Michigan with the Golden Flashes having a shot to pull off the upset in the 4th quarter.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML +100

Nebraska just had its hopes of making the 12-team playoff come to an end last week with a 21-17 home loss to USC.  The Huskers also lost star QB Dylan Raiola to a season-ending injury in the process.  I think there will be a hangover effect from that dream-crushing loss, and the Huskers will suffer a big drop off in QB play to the backup.

Nebraska is a tired team as it is playing for a 6th consecutive week here.  The injuries are starting to mount up everywhere.  The Huskers were last seen on the road getting upset 24-6 at Minnesota.  That loss looks even worse now after Minnesota went on to get blown out by everyone, including a 41-3 loss to Iowa.  This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Huskers this season.  They also escaped with a 3-point win at fraud Maryland.

UCLA is in the much better spot.  The Bruins are coming off their bye week and they have shown they will play hard for their interim head coach.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland before getting blasted at Indiana in their final game going into their bye week.  Everyone is getting blasted by Indiana, so I'm willing to throw that result out.

UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is completing 63.2% of his passes with 10 TD passes while also rushing for 388 yards and 4 scores.  He is the much better QB in this matchup, and he will lead his team to a victory here against a tired, deflated Nebraska team with a backup QB.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* LSU/Alabama ABC No-Brainer on Alabama -9

LSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Not even firing Brian Kelly will save them as they are a program in shambles right now.  The Tigers have lost all their step up games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and a 49-25 blowout home loss to Texas A&M last time out.  It won't get any easier for them this week against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been on a mission since losing to Florida State in the opener.  They have delivered going 7-0 SU with road wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 17, Vanderbilt by 16 and Wisconsin by 24.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant at home this season going 4-0 ATS, and they will have a huge home-field advantage for this rivalry game at night in Tuscaloosa.

LSU remains without its defensive leader this week in LB Whit Weeks.  This defense has been shredded without him allowing 31 points and 399 yards to Vanderbilt and 49 points and 426 yards to Texas A&M. You can just imagine what this Alabama offense is going to do to them this week.  Ty Simpson has a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio and is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better QB in the country than Simpson.

Alabama is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in its last 14 meetings with LSU.  That includes a 42-13 road win last season as 3-point favorites and a 42-28 home win the year prior as 3-point favorites.  The Crimson Tide will win this game by double-digits.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +3

Florida had its 'all in' performance last week in a 24-20 loss to Georgia in their biggest rivalry.  It was their first game with an interim head coach since firing Billy Napier.  Now I expect the Gators to fall flat on their faces this week as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Kentucky as they were to beat Georgia.  Most of these players are just ready for this season to be over.

The Gators will be without two of their best receivers for this game so their offense will continue to struggle.  Both Eugene Wilson III and Dallas Wilson are out, and 13 players in all are listed as out for this one.  The Gators rank 107th in scoring offense at 22.1 points per game this season.

Kentucky has put up great numbers in three consecutive weeks.  The Wildcats were finally rewarded with a 10-3 win as 11-point road dogs at Auburn last week.  They held the Tigers to just 241 total yards on 71 plays in the win.  That followed up two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee two weeks ago despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

This is a game the Wildcats know they can win as well and I fully expect them to take advantage.  They take this rivalry much more seriously than Florida does, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Wildcats have a great chance to still make a bowl game if they win this game because they have Tennessee Tech on deck next week.  They are much more concerned with making a bowl game than Florida is at this point.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia State/Coastal Carolina OVER 57.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Georgia State takes on Coastal Carolina in a Sun Belt showdown.  Georgia State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 69, 65 and 61 combined points.  Coastal Carolina is 2-0 OVER in its last two games finishing with 71 and 82 combined points.

Coastal Carolina ranks 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds.  The Chanticleers have really turned it up offensively in their last two games putting up 45 points on Appalachian State and 44 on Marshall.

Georgia State also plays faster than average ranking 57th in tempo snapping it every 25.9 seconds.  The Panthers have been playing much better offensively here down the stretch putting up 20 points and 381 yards on App State, 24 points and 444 yards on Georgia Southern and 31 points and 440 yards on South Alabama in its last three games coming in.  The switch to QB Cam Brown has made the difference.  He has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 275 yards and 3 scores.

Both offenses should have their way against two of the worst defenses in the country.  Georgia State ranks 135th out of 136 teams allowing 40.8 points per game, 123rd in total defense at 452.6 yards per game and 127th at 6.5 yards per play.  Coastal Carolina ranks 95th in scoring defense at 28.1 points per game and 104th in total defense at 412.5 yards per game.  Both are dreadful against the run with Coastal ranking 122nd allowing 192.6 rushing yards per game and Georgia State at 130th allowing 205 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 75, 65 and 82 points on the three OVERS.  The 75-point effort came last year.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Missouri ABC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7

It's time to 'sell high' on Texas A&M after a 8-0 start to the season.  The Aggies are ranked 3rd in the playoff ranking, and with that ranking and record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Aggies should not be 7-point road favorites over the Missouri Tigers in this one.

Missouri is 6-2 this season with its only two losses coming by 3 to Alabama at home and by 7 to Vanderbilt on the road.  The Tigers actually outgained the Crimson Tide and they outgained the Commodores by 111 yards.  They could easily be 8-0, too.

This line has been adjusted too much for the loss of QB Beau Pribula.  I like what I saw from backup QB Matt Zollers, who took over for Pribula against Vanderbilt.  He went 14-of-23 passing for 138 yards and a TD in relief.  Now Zollers has had two full weeks to get ready to face Texas A&M as the Tigers are coming off their bye week.

There really isn't a big difference between these teams when you look at the numbers.  Texas A&M averages 459.2 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense while allowing 321.5 yards per game and 5.1 per play on defense.  The Aggies outgain their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

Missouri averages 473.4 yards per game and 6.1 per play on offense and allows 245.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  The Tigers actually have better numbers, outgaining opponents by 228 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  This is the Tigers' last stand if they want to make the 12-team playoff as a win over Texas A&M would go a long way in helping them.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/TCU OVER 56.5

Iowa State's defense is decimated with injuries, but the Cyclones still have one of the better offenses in the Big 12.  Their current status has them as a dead nuts OVER team right now, and that has played out in recent weeks.

The Cyclones went for 68 combined points with Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss and 68 combined points with BYU in a 41-27 loss.  Maybe even more concerning was the fact that they gave up 467 total yards to an Arizona State team last week that was playing without its starting QB (Leavitt) and arguably the best WR in the country (Tyson).

Now the Cyclones have to go up against a TCU offense that is one of the best in the country, and also a TCU offense that has had two weeks to prepare to take advantage of their defense that is missing three of its top cornerbacks in the secondary.  Expect a pass-happy approach.

The Horned Frogs rank 27th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds and I wouldn't be surprised to see them ramp it up even more this week to try and take advantage of this depleted ISU defense.  TCU ranks 31st in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 34th averaging 6.2 yards per play.  Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,371 yards at 8.3 per attempt with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio.

This Iowa State offense is still nearly fully healthy and can keep up with TCU in a shootout.  The Cyclones average 408.1 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,119 yards while averaging 7.8 per attempt and accounting for 19 total TD's.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Iowa State and TCU finishing with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points in the four overs.  This total of 56.5 is pretty short given the state of Iowa State's defense right now.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Arizona ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57

Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall while finishing with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games finishing with 59 or more combined points in all three games.  This total of 57 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Kansas ranks 51st in scoring at 31.3 points per game and 46th at 6.1 yards per play on offense.  Arizona averages 34.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  These are two elite offenses that will have their way with two suspect defenses.

Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last five games with the only exceptions being against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Colorado and Oklahoma State.  Kansas has allowed 37 or more points in four of its last seven games with the only exceptions being against three of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State, UCF and WVU.

Both QB's are lighting it up this season.  Kansas' Jalon Daniels has a 20-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season, while Noah Fifita has a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Duke/UConn OVER 63.5

Both Duke and UConn are dead nuts OVER teams that are all offense and no defense.   Both have two of the best QB's in the country, and both of those QB's should shred these suspect defenses today.

Duke ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Blue Devils rank 25th in scoring at 35.4 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 460.2 yards per game and 15th at 6.9 yards per play.  QB Darian Mensah is completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,572 yards with a 21-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

UConn is scoring 36.9 points per game while ranking 26th in total offense at 455.6 yards per game and 19th at 6.7 yards per play.  Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,529 yards with a 22-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

Duke's defense ranks 109th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  UConn's defense ranks 94th allowing 391.7 yards per game.  Duke is 6-2 OVER this season finishing with 61 or more combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 46-45 shootout win over Clemson for 91 combined points.  UConn is 6-3 OVER in its nine games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points six times.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +6.5

The forecast will favor the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday.  Temps will be around 40 with over a 50% chance of rain throughout the game including a 100% chance in the beginning.  That will chew up the field and help slow down the speed of the Oregon Ducks.  The Hawkeyes have them right where they want them this week given the forecast.

We saw Oregon struggle with similar weather last time out only winning 21-7 at home against Wisconsin as 31-point favorites.  That's the same Wisconsin team that Iowa blasted 37-0 on the road a few weeks ago as part of a great run for the Hawkeyes.

Indeed, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall beating Minnesota 41-3 as 7.5-point home favorites, beating Penn State 25-24, winning at Rutgers 38-28 as 2-point favorites and crushing UMass 47-7 as 35-point home favorites.  But perhaps the most impressive performance was the loss.  Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point home dogs to Indiana, the same Indiana team that went into Oregon and won 30-20 and dominated the Ducks.  Iowa came closer to beating Indiana than any team has all season, and that was also a home game.

Iowa is 21-2 SU in its last 23 November games and 17-3 SU at Kinnick Stadium in November since 2015.  Iowa City is one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for the Ducks here.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/FAU OVER 64

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this AAC showdown Saturday in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 20.8 seconds while Tulsa ranks 5th snapping it every 21.8 seconds.  So this is a matchup of two Top 5 tempo teams and there should be a ton of possessions and more chances for points as a result.

Tulsa lost 41-27 for 68 combined points against East Carolina and 38-37 to Temple for 75 points in its last two games coming in.  FAU is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 70 combined points with Florida A&M, 71 with Memphis, 86 with Rice, 66 with FIU and 74 with Navy.  This total of 64 isn't that high for a game involving these two teams.

Both defenses are a disaster.  FAU ranks 131st in scoring defense allowing 36.2 points per game and 102nd allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Tulsa ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 29.6 points per game and 107th in total defense allowing 415.5 yards per play.  Both offenses should have their way with these two suspect defenses that will get worn down in the 2H due to the pace of both offenses.  

The forecast will also wear down both defenses.  Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit wins and only a 5% chance of precipitation, so the conditions look great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Charlotte/ECU OVER 56.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team due to ranking 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  The Pirates won 41-27 against Tulsa for 68 combined points and 45-14 over Temple for 59 combined points in their last two games.

The Pirates are hitting on all cylinders offensively going for 41 points and 568 total yards against Tulsa and 45 points and 614 total yards against a decent Temple defense in tough weather conditions last week.  You can just imagine what they are going to do to this piss poor Charlotte defense this week.

The 49ers rank 133rd out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 37.2 points per game, 135th at 477.9 yards per game and 132nd at 6.7 yards per play.  They are yielded 54 to North Texas, 49 to Temple and 54 to USF in three of their last four games coming in.  They went for 74 combined points with UNT, 63 with Temple and 80 with USF.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall due to their poor defense.  

Charlotte will do enough offensively to contribute to this total as they will keep coming late in the game no matter the score, which they have shown.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Texas Tech ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech -10

Texas Tech is a real contender while BYU is a fraud.  That will play out this week as Texas Tech buries BYU to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.  College Game Day will be in Lubbock and it will be one of the best home-field advantages of the season for any team.

BYU is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU got lucky to recover its own fumble to force OT against Arizona before winning.  BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

Then last time out, the Cougars trailed the Cyclones by double-digits before one of the worst INT's I've ever seen turned that game around.  The Cougars had a pick-6 later on in the game that also changed the tide.  BYU won by 14 despite giving up 495 total yards to Iowa State and getting outgained by 85 yards.  They were +3 in turnovers.

Texas Tech is the most complete team they will have faced yet.  The Red Raiders are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road in the final seconds against what was at the time a healthy Arizona State team, 26-22.  The Red Raiders have blown out everyone else as their eight wins have all come by 23 points or more.  That includes road wins over Utah by 24, Houston by 24 and Kansas state by 23.

The Red Raiders are 5-0 at home this season scoring 51.6 points per game and allowing 10.4 points per game, outscoring opponents by 41.2 points per game.  Their numbers are elite.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 10th in total offense at 492.3 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  They are 5th in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game, 9th in total defense at 271.3 yards per game and 6th at 4.1 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 28 points per game and outgaining them by 221 yards per game and 2.6 yards per play.

BYU averages 433.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense and allows 318.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  The Cougars are outgaining opponents by 115 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  While impressive, it's a far cry from what Texas Tech is doing.

BYU needs to be able to run the football to be successful on offense because their passing game is below average.  They are 17th in rushing offense but just 88th in passing offense.  Well, they haven't faced a run defense like Texas Tech, which will load the box and stop the run.  The Red Raiders rank 1st in the country allowing just 74.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.4 yards per carry.  This is just a complete mismatch.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Georgia/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +9.5

Mississippi State has been undervalued all season going 8-1 ATS in its nine games.  The only non-cover came on the road to Texas A&M in what was a 7-3 game late in the 3rd quarter.  What they've done at home has been the most impressive upsetting Arizona State, and taking both Tennessee and Texas to OT.  Getting more than a TD here with Mississippi State at home against Georgia is a great value.

Georgia has been lucky to escape with wins in its three road games.  They needed a late TD and 2-point conversion to force OT against Tennessee, winning 44-41.  They needed help from the refs to beat Auburn 20-10, tacking on a TD int the final seconds to get the cover.  And last week they struggled to get by Florida 24-20 on a neutral as 7-point favorites taking advantage of a injury-depleted Gators team with an interim head coach.  Their luck may run out this week.

If you don't count the late TD they tacked on against Auburn, Georgia would have played in five one-score games in their six SEC games this season.  The fact of the matter is the Bulldogs just aren't as dominant anymore and don't have a stranglehold on the SEC.  A team like Mississippi State can hang with them as they have proven that against similar opponents all season.

There just isn't that much difference between these teams statistically.  Georgia averages 5.9 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 per play on defense, while Mississippi State averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense.  Georgia is only 0.5 yards per play better than Mississippi State.  Asking the Bulldogs to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +10.5

This is the Red Bandana game for Boston College.  It's a game that the Eagles get up for every year, so I'm not concerned about a letdown from them after playing Louisville and Notre Dame the last two weeks.  The Eagles will relish this opportunity to try and knock off SMU, which made the 12-team playoff last year.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season, and that return to health is a big reason they gave two playoff contenders in Louisville and Notre Dame bigger fights than they bargained for.  They only lost by 14 at Louisville as 26-point dogs and by 15 at home to Notre Dame as 31-point dogs.  This is a big step down in class against overrated SMU.

This is also a very tough spot for SMU.  After traveling clear out East in a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest two weeks ago, the Mustangs returned home and pulled the 26-20 (OT) upset win as 10-point dogs against Miami.  They tore the goalposts down and celebrated like they won the National Championship.

Now the Mustangs are in a letdown spot off that win and with Louisville on deck next week, making this a big sandwich spot.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Boston College, and now they will be extremely tired having to travel clear back out East this week.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and won't have much left in the tank.

SMU just has not been impressive on the road this season.  They were in a dog fight with Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite, not coming close to sniffing the cover.  They lost by 11 at TCU and were upset by Wake Forest.  Their win over Clemson comes with an asterisk because Clemson was without starting QB Cade Klubnik due to injury.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose this game outright against a BC team that will be more motivated than they will.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on James Madison/Marshall OVER 54.5

At 7-1 on the season with its only loss on the road to Louisville, James Madison is very much in the running to make the 12-team playoff.  But the Dukes know they need style points while also winning out, and that has been evident in recent games.

James Madison beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points two weeks ago and crushed Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points last week.  The Dukes put up 624 total yards on a very good Old Dominion defense and another 511 total yards on Texas State last week.  They keep scoring late into the 4th quarter and keep piling on the points, and they will do the same if they get a chance against Marshall this week, which is why I like the OVER.

Marshall is a great OVER opponent as well.  The Thundering Herd are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 70 or more points in all five games.  They went for 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with Old Dominion, 77 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina.

Marshall has one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about in dual-threat Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.  He is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 418 yards and 4 scores.  But this is a very poor Marshall defense, one that ranks 112th in scoring at 32.5 points per game, 131st at 413.1 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.  James Madison will get 40-plus here, and I trust Del Rio-Wilson and company to do enough to get us this OVER with ease.  

The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, only 5 MPH wind and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Northwestern/USC OVER 49.5

USC is going to come close to covering this total on its own tonight.  The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  This is the best offense of the Lincoln Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play overall.  The Trojans have motivation to get style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so they will try to run it up tonight.

Northwestern has faced so many bad offenses and played in a lot of bad weather this season that have kept their games lower-scoring.  Against the only offense that is even close to USC's caliber, they allowed 34 points to Oregon before the Ducks called off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  USC will not be calling off the dogs in this one.  I think Northwestern can get to 14-21 points to contribute to the OVER as well as they have reached at least 14 points in seven consecutive games.  Be the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Northwestern/USC FOX No-Brainer on USC -14

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points in a primetime game on National TV.

The Trojans are scoring 52 points per game, averaging 591 yards per game and 9.3 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 19.3 points pre game, 312.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 279 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play at home.  That includes an impressive 31-13 home win over Michigan.

Northwestern is overvalued after feasting on an easy schedule in going 4-1 SU in its last five games.  The wins have come against UCLA, ULM, Penn State and Purdue, while the lone loss was on the road at Nebraska by 7.  Against the only team the caliber of USC they have played, they lost 34-14 to Oregon in what was a 34-0 game before the Ducks called off the dogs, allowing the Wildcats to score 14 points in the final minutes of the 4th quarter in a misleading final.

Northwestern ranks 104th in scoring offense at 22.5 points per game and doesn't have the firepower to hang with the Trojans for four quarters.  The Trojans rank 55th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 points per game with the best defense of the Riley era.  This is also the best offense of the Riley era as the Trojans rank 9th in scoring, 6th in total offense and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.  Bet USC Friday.