Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 30 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5 The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers. The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week. CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen. He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results. It's not going to stop now. I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week. He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week. Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run. He is much more dynamic when that's the case. Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game. The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts. I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense. Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston. I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time. Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +9 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9 The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12. Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12. It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare. This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value. After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston. That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12. They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB. Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare. Iowa State isn't scared of Texas. The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year. Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too. Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average. What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. This defense gives them a chance in any game. They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country. He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games. Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week. Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry. It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season. The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively. And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings. Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas. Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State. I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Boise State v. Utah State +3 | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 51 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3 The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now. They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State. They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won. Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility. The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season. They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play. The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important. Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers. The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse. They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season. They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD. He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return. I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season. Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23. We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser. As you can see, I'm still not over it. But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation. They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more. Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season. They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season. Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wrong team favored here. Bet Utah State Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30.5 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 38 m | Show |
20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5 I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons. The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers. All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses. The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State. But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team. The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week. They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards. That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory. And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that. In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total. The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense. It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions. Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers. They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more. But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds. Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score. They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest. Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season. He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary. DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football. Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders. We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Sam Houston State v. Western Kentucky OVER 52 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 37 m | Show |
20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52 I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for. Well, here's a good example of that. Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game. They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program. Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title. They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season. The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well. But I prefer the OVER instead. Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo. That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall. They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech. The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games. The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games. They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points. They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points. The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now. Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season. They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home. The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well. This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone. The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders. This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Texas State v. Arkansas State +4 | 31-77 | Win | 100 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4 Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette. They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs. They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019. Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern. They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB. So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation. Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job. Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener. But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time. Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it. Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively. They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are. Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State. They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons. A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright. Bet Arkansas State Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Cincinnati +7 v. West Virginia | 21-42 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7 Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen. They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least. Let's just look at the numbers to make my point. Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game. They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense. They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season. West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati. The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game. We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point. I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home. But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma. West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games. Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach. After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke. They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week. Bet Cincinnati Saturday. |
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11-18-23 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Penn State | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 7 m | Show |
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5 The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week. They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan. They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away. I don't expect them to show up at all this week. James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself. And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss. Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite. Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much. I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa. But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers. They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week. They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title. Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss. The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns. They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State. If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State. Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss. Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach. The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be. Bet Rutgers Saturday. |
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11-17-23 | South Florida +16 v. UTSA | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 23 m | Show |
20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16 This game means nothing to UTSA. Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters. The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game. As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so. UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels. They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior. Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here. South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight. They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them. The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior. That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game. South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric. The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat. The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play. They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season. Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games. The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Bet South Florida Friday. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3 I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up. They have taken money every week and for good reason. They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers. I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4. Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL. Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati. The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL. While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons. The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air. Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players. They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week. DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does. While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns. Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky. Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back. I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game. Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter. That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons. They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson. The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th. The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned. That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be. Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them. They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes. Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night. They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012. Bet the Ravens Thursday. |
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11-14-23 | Western Michigan +5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5 Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now. They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort. That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite. The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior. They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior. They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs. They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites. They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa. Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued. The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games. They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites. They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites. They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out. Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC. They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season. Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games. Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite. The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 152 h 6 m | Show |
20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5 These are two teams headed in opposite directions. There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage. They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season. The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week. The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards. They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites. They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star. They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs. And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards. The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall. They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them. Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs. They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround. They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice. That's mighty impressive. I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills. Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals. LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol. This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury. Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach. The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are. Bet the Broncos Monday. |
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11-12-23 | Falcons v. Cardinals | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 51 m | Show | |
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons. They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games. But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward. Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts. He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points. He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it. I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week. They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for. They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses. Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week. Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon. But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything. The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits. They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL. He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer. Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback. They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson. They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season. Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line. Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season. Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season. They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare. We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news. It won't make a difference in his first game back. Bet the Falcons Sunday. |
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11-12-23 | Lions -120 v. Chargers | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 160 h 24 m | Show |
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120 The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season. They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal. The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week. They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week. It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards. The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one. They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world. The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play. Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions. The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football. That was such a misleading final. The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21. They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers. This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games. Their offense is broken right now. They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two. The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win. The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13. Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season. These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions. Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday. |
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11-12-23 | Browns v. Ravens -6.5 | 33-31 | Loss | -107 | 65 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5 The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing. They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy. What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive. Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards. They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards. They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter. They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards. This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games. The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve. Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it. Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense. It will matter this week. It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr. Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out. Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy. I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too. They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals. We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week. The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them. The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game. I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right. It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more. The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -135 v. Jaguars | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 157 h 19 m | Show |
20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135 I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week. I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line. The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final. A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland. But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury. Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side. Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance. Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line. The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye. Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be. Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule. The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it. Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers. They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it. Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season. This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least. It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9. Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards. The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday. It also shows up in the numbers. The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense. I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack. Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game. Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents. Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move. Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday. |
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11-12-23 | Colts -115 v. Patriots | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 117 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115 The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints. They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed. Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots. Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place. Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack. The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have. They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game. The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics. The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games. The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown. They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne. Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable. They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver. He can't get separation any more. Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted. Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift. Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games. Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game. Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday. |
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11-11-23 | USC v. Oregon -14.5 | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 23 m | Show |
20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5 The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC. USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game. They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame. The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame. They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory. They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12. I really question their motivation the rest of the way. Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12. Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense. They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite. They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender. They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone. They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks. They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good. To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot. Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more. This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for. Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor. Bet Oregon Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -103 | Top | 18-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 23 m | Show |
25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103 Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West. They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title. They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season. San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush. They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards. Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards. That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State. Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire. That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run. Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games. They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State. Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro. He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground. The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance. No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%. I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii. They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense. I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans. Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins. San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season. Bet San Jose State Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Ole Miss +11 v. Georgia | Top | 17-52 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 4 m | Show |
20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11 The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season. They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn. I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs. They are treating this game as their national championship. Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons. They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up. They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer. This will now be by far their toughest test of the season. I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia. That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them. It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals. So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one. Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West. Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th. That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule. That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points. Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play. Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play. Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning. They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago. He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing. They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks. Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return. Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters. QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground. He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade. The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years. Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game. Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Ole Miss Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Cincinnati v. Houston OVER 54.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 54 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5 I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for. There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games. Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5. They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season. Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play. Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play. Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7. The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers. Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense. Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points. I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State. They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week. Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons. Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 19-22 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5 I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons. Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch. It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week. They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football. They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force. They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points. They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss. I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week. San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate. They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play. They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game. They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade. Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate. They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat. They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win. They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too. This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks. They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday. Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games. The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy. They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for. I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case. It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs. Bet Colorado State Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Arkansas State +12 v. South Alabama | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 55 m | Show | |
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12 Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette. They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility. South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season. They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year. But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention. The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week. Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope. Now I question their motivation the rest of the way. That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice. QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it. He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line. He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%. Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup. The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley. There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again. South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet Arkansas State Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | New Mexico State +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 74 h 25 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5 What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than. New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal. New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season. Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season. New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play. Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play. It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers. WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards. They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season. Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards. They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here. The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one. They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season. WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt. The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way. Bet New Mexico State Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Alabama -10.5 v. Kentucky | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5 The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now. They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way. They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week. Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class. Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee. They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot. I give them zero credit for that victory. QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense. I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread. Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule. That's a difference of 64 spots. Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits. It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here. Bet Alabama Saturday. |
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11-11-23 | Georgia Tech +14 v. Clemson | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14 Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson. They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend. I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank. They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win. They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them. Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming. Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit. The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play. No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play. That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here. Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog. Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56. The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well. Bet Georgia Tech Saturday. |
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11-10-23 | Wyoming v. UNLV -5.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5 The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country. They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West. They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium. UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game. Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home. While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game. They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games. Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game. They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass. This is strength on strength here. Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover. UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game. Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for. They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one. UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more. Bet UNLV Friday. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 40.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5 The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense. The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again. The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. He is likely to get the start again Thursday. He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game. The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior. Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983. Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season. They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | Top | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3 I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week. But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB. Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears. This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB. They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago. Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards. And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers. Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18. The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 yards last week. Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense. But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now. The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson. Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell. The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago. The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more. Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week. They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the Bears Thursday. |
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11-09-23 | Southern Miss +10.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5 Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. Their last two games have been impressive. They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat. Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards. Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields. They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game. That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention. The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season. It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt. Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground. He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt. There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season. Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year. The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more. Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game. The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game. Bet Southern Miss Thursday. |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +19 v. Toledo | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19 Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span. Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire. Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites. They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game. They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone. They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too. Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division. They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton. I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out. That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo. They have three extra days than the Rockets do. The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games. I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive. Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread. Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss. Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers. Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game. Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday. |
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11-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3 Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan. They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st. I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home. That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win. The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games. They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites. They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch. Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now. They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite. They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior. They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior. They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs. They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites. They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity. Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game. They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense. Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well. The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry. They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt. WMU has played six road games and only three home games. They are 2-1 at home this season. CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table. It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 54 m | Show |
20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5 The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week. I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored. Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value. What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City. They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs. They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs. If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers. What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall. They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go. They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve. They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits. The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game. They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score. They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game. When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost. They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami. As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys. I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one. They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of. The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat. Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%. Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play. Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now. The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears. Bet the Jets Monday. |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 48 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 16 m | Show |
20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards. But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville. After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense. The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week. Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him. He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games. The offense is basically fully healthy right now. Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out. Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense. I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one. This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year. And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week. The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win. They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win. They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%. The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities. They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Giants v. Raiders OVER 37 | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37 The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games. The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games. This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week. There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week. The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM. They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way. He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard. O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior. He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play. On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week. He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances. The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload. This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season. This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week. The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week. Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense. New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen. They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him. I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses. That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks. I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense. The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total. But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total. They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami. This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER. The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2 I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning. They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip. The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate. We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game. The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play. I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs. The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week. They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots. I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season. But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them. The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles. This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs. I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced. They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy. The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable. Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB. This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in. So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville. The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken. They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season. They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce. The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory. The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense. There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday. |
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11-04-23 | Miami-FL v. NC State +4.5 | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5 The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now. They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night. We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright. Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did. They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid. They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs. They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season. And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week. They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards. NC State has played very well at home of late. They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week. They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here. Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas. NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites. They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games. Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami. Bet NC State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Washington -3 v. USC | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3 USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game. They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame. The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame. They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory. Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs. We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford. But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior. No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week. Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night. Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup. The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play. The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game. Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here. USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week. The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense. The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively. Bet Washington Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 58 m | Show |
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1 The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma. They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road. The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now. This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night. The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season. They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3. They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting. They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation. The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas. They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997. It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984. It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season. This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks. The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas. They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion. Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper. The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers. There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses. Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't. The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed. Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed. Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games. They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close. They allowed 661 yards to Texas. And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys. Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more. Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008. Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992. Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Utah State -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 32-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5 Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season. But these records are now created equal. Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5. When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason. Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch. It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force. Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did. They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively. I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams. Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team. The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play. San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play. The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game. The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade. They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season. Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground. Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021. The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team. They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score. They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada. Bet Utah State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Illinois v. Minnesota -125 | 27-26 | Loss | -125 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125 The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now. They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers. They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards. They certainly won't let down against Illinois here. Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season. They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now. Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road. Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season. That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17. The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game. That team is going to be Minnesota. The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game. Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game. The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season. Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Missouri +16 v. Georgia | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16 The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division. Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs. The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs. The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week. That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs. We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs. They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down. That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season. They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17. They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition. Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them. Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season. They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing. They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road. They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now. The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS. This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target. Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD. Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia. The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins. Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Missouri Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Virginia Tech +10 v. Louisville | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10 Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards. The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles. The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards. And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards. That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday. The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback. Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies. Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores. His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic. The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point. Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be. Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame. Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well. This one will go down to the wire. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Arizona State +11 v. Utah | Top | 3-55 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 46 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11 I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games. The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead. No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game. I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars. And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record. But this is a play against Utah as much as anything. The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles. Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week. That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained. Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much. Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards. Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards. UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards. Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense. They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play. Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record. Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games. They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon. This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -3 | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 91 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3 Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West. The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today. Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention. They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week. And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either. After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games. They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season. Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home. They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest. Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury. Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country. Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation. Bet Ole Miss Saturday. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +125 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 125 | 97 h 22 m | Show |
20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125 These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet. Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night. Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road. They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games. They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech. The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats. They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field. He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry. He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles. To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles. They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards. That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC. Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3 Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal. This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams. The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week. They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy. The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback. It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week. They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons. Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center. I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh. However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points. The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play. The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record. The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in. The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable. Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game. They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion. QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement. Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury. The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston. They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype. This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more. The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play. They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season. Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well. The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season. They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Titans Thursday. |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama v. Troy -5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5 The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games. They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards. And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites. The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play. Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins. South Alabama is down this season. They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites. QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week. Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game. He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season. Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games. South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt. The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Troy Thursday. |
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11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 73 h 45 m | Show |
20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3 Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team. We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock. Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards. The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards. They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games. But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence. Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong. They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center. TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State. They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week. Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good. He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry. This TCU defense isn't very good. They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense. They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244. The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship. They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation. After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention. Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. Bet Texas Tech Thursday. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5 Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27. That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami. Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country. The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense. They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green. The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game. Ball State has some really concerning losses of late. They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern. They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country. They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country. Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home. Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game. Bet Bowling Green Wednesday. |
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10-31-23 | Buffalo +16 v. Toledo | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16 Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span. Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo. Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late. The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites. Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC. Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season. They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf. Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season. Bet Buffalo Tuesday. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 152 h 6 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8 This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week. You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season. Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier. But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed. Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense. Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track. They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season. They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory. The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse. The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week. They are held to 235 total yards in defeat. Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week. This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment. The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry. They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games. They will get back on track offensively this week. The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line. K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more. The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Lions Monday. |
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10-29-23 | Ravens -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 164 h 60 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5 Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5. I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals. That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week. So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football. The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week. The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league. Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers. But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona. I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits. They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle. They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout. Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games. Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt. They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him. Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him. He isn't handling it very well. Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL. They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week. They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now. The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks. They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future. The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst. The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result. Bet the Ravens Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -130 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 164 h 39 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130 The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games. I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final. They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling. While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite. I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning. The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead. Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. I think their luck runs out this week. The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one. Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries. It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment. The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals. But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week. Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state. That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites. The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts -116 | 38-27 | Loss | -116 | 156 h 28 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116 The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play. That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns. Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week. Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense. He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career. Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz. Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns. Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week. I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back. I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone. That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks. They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable. They get in the red zone and bog down. They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%. The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints. You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. They aren't on the same page right now. You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars. It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense. They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara. The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. The are so predictable. They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses. The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule. But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans. They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints. Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-28-23 | UNLV +7.5 v. Fresno State | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 58 m | Show | |
15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5 UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West. There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State. I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here. Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback. Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week. Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here. Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less. The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada. They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV. QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype. He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry. UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time. This one will be decided by one score either way, too. Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet UNLV Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Washington State v. Arizona State +6 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6 I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games. The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead. No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game. It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far. I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle. Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in. The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football. That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks. This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt. Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so. Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages. I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here. Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss. Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Old Dominion +20.5 v. James Madison | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 92 h 29 m | Show |
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5 James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program. That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score. Another win came by 11 points. Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much. Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record. The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season. The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs. Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week. The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend. Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison. The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here. Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better. Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Old Dominion Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Troy -4.5 v. Texas State | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5 The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games. They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards. Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country. Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe. They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe. This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record. Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play. Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th. Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses. Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play. Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game. Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more. Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards. The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week. |
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10-28-23 | Arkansas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 56.5 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 29 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5 My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. These are two of the worst defenses in the country. Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed. Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game. I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense. When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued. Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss. The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out. This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check. Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total. This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games. Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense. Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points. The books have once again set this total too low. Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks. Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Pittsburgh +21 v. Notre Dame | 7-58 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 0 m | Show | |
15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21 The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans. But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers. Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense. Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much. After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame. He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC. Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt. While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent. Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville. Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards. The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week. The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games. Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest. He has given this previously dead offense some new life. Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run. They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19 Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate. The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland. They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers. With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here. At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year. Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites. They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game. And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers. They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech. Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score. Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win. That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history. Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game. The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Virginia Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Duke v. Louisville -4 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4 I love the spot for Louisville this week. They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye. You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot. Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week. They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt. It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter. Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0. They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title. The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. The spot is much worse for Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score. They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles. QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late. He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one. Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Louisville Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Memphis v. North Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 87 h 29 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5 The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well. They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points. Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less. It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most. North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road. They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout. That gives these teams a common opponent. Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards. And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road. I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB. That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards. But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference. North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs. North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss. North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game. Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here. Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win. North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games. Bet North Texas Saturday. |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +4.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 20 m | Show |
20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5 I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country. His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him. The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition. They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU. Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated. They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards. They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough. Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for. Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida. Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA. The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall. It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense. It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Charlotte Friday. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense. The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin. Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here. The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week. They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable. What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in. The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away. The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%. Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace. The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year. Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers. Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5 These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet. Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night. Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards. The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles. And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards. Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road. They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces. They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State. The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats. That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now. The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards. The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback. Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies. Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores. His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic. Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday. |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International +8 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8 The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS. They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible. Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International. This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days. They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late. Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team. Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves. The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here. Bet Florida International Wednesday. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5 New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight. They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race. They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible. Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry. From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country. He is doing the same from October-on this year. This New Mexico State defense is also underrated. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference. I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year. They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early. LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week. LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest. The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one. They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team. LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games. The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach. Bet New Mexico State Tuesday. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings +7 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7 The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games. Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games. All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score. Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value. The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders. Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game. The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season. Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week. Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense. McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game. The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13. This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat. They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game. If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers. Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season. He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late. The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn. Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Bet the Vikings Monday. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -130 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130 I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night. They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away. They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night. They want to destroy this hype train. Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week. Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do. The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game. They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession. They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here. That's especially the case when you look at the forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night. That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage. That team is Philadelphia. This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago. Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing. Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well. Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well. They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets. They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season. It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers. They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers. This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia. Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 39 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5 I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week. They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses. They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy. Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season. Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved. However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season. Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well. The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago. The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season. The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game. They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS. The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions. The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well. Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell. The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders. The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions. The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver. Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans. Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 23 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5 Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5. The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL. They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling. I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games. In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards. Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league. They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of. Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards. The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week. That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards. Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks. They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games. After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half. The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense. What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury. They just don't have a replacement for him. He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season. Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL. As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday. The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage. Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week. Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season. Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road. I expect them to make it four in a row here. I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game. Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle. Bet the Seahawks Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +2.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5 The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now. Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration. The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half. They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week. Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush. No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week. I like the Colts either way. This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season. The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead. The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -135 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 146 h 34 m | Show |
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135 The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season. They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London. And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final. The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards. The Ravens should be 6-0 this season. They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers. If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week. The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL. They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game. This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season. While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back. They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday. The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions. The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much. Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem. It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week. Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog. Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3. He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors. Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay. They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks. They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win. Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents. It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend. Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-21-23 | Arizona State +28.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 121 h 10 m | Show |
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5 This is a massive letdown spot for Washington. They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal. They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way. Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out. There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%. The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here. They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin. Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye. This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten. I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition. Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye. Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season. The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs. Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington. Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion +6.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5 I love the spot for Old Dominion this week. They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright. Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs. That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season. The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall. Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye. Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season. The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team. They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one. This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin. The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense. The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average. Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play. Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1). Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point. Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite. The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game. Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State. Bet Old Dominion Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV OVER 61.5 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 49 m | Show |
25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5 UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points. They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point. Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points. The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee. The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds. Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half. They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters. UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +2 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2 Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season. This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team. Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright. The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites. They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both. Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener. That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more. Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories. But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn. Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt. Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio. It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday. I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well. Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog. Bet Miami Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Buffalo v. Kent State +7 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 8 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7 I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season. But here we are. I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football. And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State. Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers. The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule. The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road. Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play. These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate. Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game. It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards. Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won. They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD. Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14. It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat. There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground. That benefits Kent State. Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Kent State Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 42.5 | 25-21 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5 The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday. There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30. That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket. Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week. That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season. Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt. Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show. The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points. Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages. Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week. Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 114 h 8 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4 The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense. They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season. I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week. It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West. That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week. The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara. Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin. They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week. There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver. The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa. The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him. Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards. The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards. Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too. But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Minnesota Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 46 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46 This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses. There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon. Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow. Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country. Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play. This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country. Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious. With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games. They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game. They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well. But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play. I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one. They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in. As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry. Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays. Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays. Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season. Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points. Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times. The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley. The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Charlotte +7.5 v. East Carolina | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 89 h 38 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5 In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown. I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season. It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown. I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country. The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition. They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU. They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU. SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs. Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home. ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb. This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season. They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense. There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well. Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Charlotte Saturday. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -116 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 45 h 11 m | Show |
20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116 The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts. This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars. The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week. They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play. Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles. They easily should have won that game. The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts. Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping. He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes. The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell. The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye. And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report. This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here. The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play. They are much healthier than the Jaguars. Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses. The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday. |
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10-19-23 | Rice v. Tulsa OVER 57 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57 Rice is a dead nuts OVER team. They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs. The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense. The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds. Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense. He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games. They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points. The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple. Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane. He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt. He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores. He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt. Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well. The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses. Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall. Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game. Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3 New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team. The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense. Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here. Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State. He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns. UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play. He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football. He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns. But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters. That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State. This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season. The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense. They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country. Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word. UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach. UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games. Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies. Bet New Mexico State Wednesday. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +2.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 178 h 2 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 I was on the 49ers -3.5 over the Cowboys last week and I'm fading the Cowboys again this week. Their stats coming into that 49ers game were fraudulent because they were living on defensive touchdowns and turnovers, masking the poor performance of their offense in the red zone. That's a tough way to live. The Cowboys were exposed in their 42-10 loss at San Francisco. They also got banged up on defense in that game, losing LB Leighton Vander Esch and CB C.J. Goodwin to injury. That's bad news for a Cowboys team that just isn't as good defensively without CB Trevon Diggs. The 49ers have a way of making teams play poorly the following week. They play a physical brand of football, and it's mentally taxing on opponents trying to prepare for them as well. One of the best hidden stats about the 49ers is that teams are now 2-19 SU & 4-15-2 ATS the game after facing them since the start of last year. And now the Cowboys are being asked to go on the road as favorites when they are clearly beat up this week. Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they'll be facing a rested Chargers team coming off their bye week. The Chargers are also getting healthy coming into this one with Austin Ekeler making his return to the lineup, plus there's a good chance they get both S Derwin James and LB Joey Bosa back defensively. The Chargers are now one of the healthiest teams in the league, while the Cowboys are as banged up as they have been all season. The Chargers will be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense that allowed 421 total yards to the 49ers last week. They have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and their run game is much better with Ekeler in the fold. Conversely, I think the Chargers are in line for another good defensive performance after holding the Raiders to 17 points and 264 total yards last time out while forcing three turnovers. Khalil Mack had six sacks in the win. The Chargers have elite talent on defense and massive potential when healthy like they are right now. Bet the Chargers Monday. |
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10-15-23 | Eagles v. Jets +7 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7 The Jets have turned a corner taking Kansas City to the wire in a 23-20 loss, and dominating the Broncos in a 31-21 road victory last week. This isn't that far off from the Kansas City spread as the Jets closed as 8-point home dogs. Now they are 7-point home dogs to the Eagles, and many would have Kansas City power-rated one point better than the Eagles at this point. The Eagles haven't faced very many good defenses this season. Three have been the Rams, Commanders and Vikings, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Against the two best defenses they faced they had 25 points on the Patriots but basically 14 came off turnovers. They had 25 points against the Bucs as well. I think the Jets can hold the Eagles to 24 or less in this one, meaning they'd only need 17 to push or cover. They held the Bills to 16 and the Chiefs to 23 and actually outscored those two teams in the two games combined, so they have proven they can play with anyone. The weather could be pretty rough for this one and turn it into an even lower scoring game, meaning each point is worth more. There is a 50% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds expected. The Jets won't mind uglying it up and running the football now that they have a fully healthy Breece Hall. He has averaged 7.2 yards per carry this season and 7.4 yards per reception. He is an absolute weapon for this team right now. Zach Wilson has played his two best games of the season last last two weeks and is gaining confidence, and so is the team in him. This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they have to fly back from Los Angeles after beating the Rams last week. They will now be on the road for a second consecutive week and haven't been home for two weeks in a row yet. They also have a huge game against Miami on deck, so they could be looking forward to that game. The Eagles just haven't been that dominant this season with four of their five wins coming by single-digits. But you're paying a tax to back them now due to their 5-0 record. I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up here and lose this game outright. The Jets have just one loss by more than 5 points this season. S Justin Evans, CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter all did not practice on Thursday for the Eagles and are questionable to play in this one. The Jets got good injury news with Sauce Gardner expected to play and a couple offensive linemen returning to practice on a limited bases Thursday. Bet the Jets Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Cardinals v. Rams OVER 47 | Top | 9-26 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 34 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47 The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team. They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses. They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles. Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket. The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively. They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game. Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points. It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more. The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points. The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five. Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch. Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference. Points will be plentiful in this one. Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more. Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins OVER 48 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 147 h 9 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48 The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play. Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER. They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week. They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best. Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards. I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system. Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season. Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces. The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 31 m | Show |
20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5 I've backed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a premium pick each of the last two weeks in London with success. They won and covered as 3-point favorites in a 16-point win over Jacksonville. They won and covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 25-20 win over Buffalo. Jacksonville had the advantage of being familiar with the surroundings in London and becoming the first team to stay over there for two consecutive games. Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars. Jacksonville returns home and will be dealing with all the distractions that come with returning home from a long road trip. Home field hasn't been too kind to the Jaguars this season. They lost 17-9 to the Chiefs as 3-point dogs. They were blasted 37-17 by the Texans as 7.5-point favorites. Now they must play an improving Indianapolis Colts team that will be highly motivated for revenge from a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars in the opener. That was a 10-point loss, but they did lead the Jaguars going into the 4th quarter. They also failed to score from the 1-yard line in the final seconds, turning a 3-point loss to a 10-point loss. That was the first game for head coach Shane Steichen. The Colts have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since with their lone loss coming in overtime to the Rams. That was the only game in which Anthony Richardson started and finished. I think Gardner Minshew is an upgrade over Richardson. He came in for an injured Richardson to lead a 31-20 win at Houston. Last week, Minshew came in for an injured Richardson and led the Colts to a 23-16 home win over Tennessee. And in the only game Minshew had a full week to prepare, if you'll remember I was on the Colts +8 over the Ravens. They won that game outright 22-19 in overtime. Minshew is the real deal, and Steichen has no problem adjusting the offense to fit his skill set. He is completing 68.7% of his passes compared to just 59.5% for Richardson. Minshew has yet to turn the ball over, either, which is huge. This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Minshew as he made his name with the Jaguars, and will be extra motivated to beat his former team. The Jaguars put up gaudy offensive numbers against the Bills last week, but keep in mind the Bills were already injury-ravaged on defense coming into the game, and then lost several players early in that one including Milano and Jones. This Colts defense will offer up much more resistance. They have allowed 23 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four games. WR Zay Jones, LT Cam Robinson and LG Walker Little are all banged up right now and questionable to play Sunday. Jones and Walker did not practice Thursday and are doubtful. The Colts have quietly rushed for at least 126 yards in four consecutive games. They just rushed for 193 yards last week on a Tennessee Titans team that had previously been great against the run. Zack Moss has been a revelation, and Jonathan Taylor just returned from injured reserve last week. This is quietly one of the best two-headed monsters are running back in the NFL moving forward, which will take a ton of pressure off Minshew. The didn't have either Moss or Taylor in the season-opening loss to the Jaguars. I just love taking these teams out for revenge in the 2nd meeting after losing the first, especially when they are on the road as underdogs in the rematch. I also love fading teams coming back from London. Most teams take a bye week coming back from London, but not the Jaguars. The last 11 teams not to take a bye week after London were either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter, including the Falcons last week in their 2-point win over the Texans. There is a hangover effect and jet lag these teams have to deal with. I fully expect Indianapolis to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-15-23 | Ravens -4 v. Titans | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Ravens/Titans NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -4 John Harbaugh decided to have his team fly out on Sunday night to London. He's had this game circled because the last time they went to London they got blown out. They are taking this game very seriously, especially coming off a blown 10-0 lead to the Steelers and losing 17-10. The Ravens dominated that game against the Steelers but had 7-8 drops and committed three turnovers. If the Ravens had won that game in a blowout like they should have, this line would be higher than Baltimore -4. I think the Ravens are primed for a big effort here. The Ravens will have their entire offensive line intact since Week 1. They have also several key players back on defense from injury now. They are the healthiest they have been at any point this season, so that's another reason we should get the best version of the Ravens. The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the road this season losing at New Orleans, losing 27-3 at Cleveland and falling 23-16 at Baltimore. What had previously been a stout Tennessee run defense was shredded for 193 rushing yards by the Colts last week. The biggest reason was not having DT Teair Tart in the middle last week as he was out with a toe injury. He hasn't practiced this week and is doubtful. Tart is one of the most underrated defensive players in the entire league. The Titans also won't have WR Treylon Burks or LB Luke Gifford for this one, plus DT Jeffery Simmons, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, S Amani Hooker and DL Denico Autry have all been limited in practice and are questionable. The Titans are in the worst position they've been in health-wise heading into this game. The Bills didn't arrive in London until Friday last week and were flat as a pancake against the Jaguars. Well, the Titans took the same approach and didn't arrive in London until Friday this week. That screams jet lag, and it's not enough time to acclimate to the time change. Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business, but he's making a mistake not getting his team acclimated in time for this game at 9:30 AM EST. The Ravens have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play and only allowing 4.1 yards per play on defense. The Titans are getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense. The Ravens are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season here. Remember, they scored 28 points against the Browns two weeks ago, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following an upset loss to a division opponent. Baltimore is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games following an upset loss as a favorite. Harbaugh is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday. |
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10-14-23 | UAB +10 v. UTSA | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +10 Trent Dilfer is quietly doing a great job at UAB. The Blazers have faced a brutal schedule and are 2-4 this season despite being underdogs in four of six games. They beat North Carolina A&T to open the season 35-6, were competitive in a 35-49 loss at Georgia Southern, and lost by 20 at home to Louisiana as 2-point favorites in their first three games to open the season. Those latter two teams are among the favorites to win the Sun Belt. UAB is 3-0 ATS since with three straight impressive performances. The Blazers only lost by 28 at Georgia as 40-point dogs, lost by 12 at Tulane as 21.5-point dogs, and crushed South Florida by 21 as 3.5-point dogs. The offense is clicking with 346 total yards on Georgia, 434 total yards on Tulane and 608 total yards on South Florida. UTSA is getting too much respect for what they have done in the past. The Roadrunners are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season as a result. They lost at Houston, only beat Texas State by 7 as 14-point home favorites, were upset by Army by 8 as 7-point home favorites and were blasted by 31 at Tennessee as 24-point dogs. Even their lone cover last week wasn't impressive as they beat Temple 49-34 as 14-point favorites. That's an awful Temple team that previously lost by 22 to Tulsa, by 34 to Miami, by 29 to Rutgers and barely beat lowly Akron by 3. UAB has passed for at least 250 yards in every game this season. Well, UTSA just gave up 472 passing yards to Temple last week. UAB is never going to be out of this game due to a quick-strike offense that is averaging 31.8 points pe game, 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. UTSA is averaging 25.2 points per game, 393 yards per game and 5.4 per play to compare against a softer schedule. UTSA does have the better defense, but it doesn't warrant them being double-digit favorites. UTSA has won the conference in consecutive seasons and a big reason why was beating UAB in a pair of close games. They won 34-31 in 2021 as 3.5-point favorites and 44-38 (OT) in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites. You know the Blazers want revenge from those two losses, especially last year. UAB is still 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings not once losing by more than 6 points. Given the head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Blazers in this one. UTSA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit road win. The Roadrunners are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a two-game road trip. UTSA is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. Bet UAB Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | Missouri v. Kentucky -2.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Missouri/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR Kentucky -2.5 Both Missouri and Kentucky are 5-1 this season and have been impressive. However, I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on Kentucky after getting embarrassed by Georgia 51-13 on the road last week. I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri after they should have had four consecutive covers, but blew it late against LSU last week. Missouri led LSU 39-35 with less than three minutes left. They gave up a touchdown and then an interception return TD in the final seconds to lose 49-39. I think the Tigers will be deflated having their perfect season come to an end in that kind of fashion. They are also a tired team after playing in that shootout, and now must travel on the road to a tough place to play in Kentucky. The forecast is going to help Kentucky in this one. There is a 62% chance of rain with 19 MPH winds projected Saturday. Kentucky is the better running team and the better team at stopping the run, while Missouri relies more on moving the football through the air to score points. Missouri only averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense and allows 3.4 per carry on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 per carry on the ground. Kentucky averages 5.8 yards per carry and allows 3.1 per carry, outgaining opponents by 2.7 per carry. That's a huge discrepancy. Missouri has only played one true road game this season and that came at Vanderbilt, which is 0-7 ATS this season and has zero home-field advantage. This will be their stiffest road test of the season by far. Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Missouri. Kentucky is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Missouri overall. The Wildcats' dominance of the Tigers continues in 2023. Plays on home favorites (Kentucky) - after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last three games, a top-level team winning more than 80% of their games when playing against a team with a winning record are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Kentucky Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5 The weather forecast is going to favor Notre Dame quite a bit in this game. Temps will be in the 40's with a 90% chance of rain and 21 MPH crosswinds at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night. That's not ideal for a fair weather team like USC coming over from California and not used to the conditions. There's been videos of coaches spraying players with water trying to catch footballs to try and acclimate to it. Notre Dame is the more physical team with the better running game and run defense. The Fighting Irish average 171 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry on offense and allow 133 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on defense. USC averages 168 rushing yards per game on offense and allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry on defense. Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, while USC has played one of the easiest. Notre Dame has faced Ohio State, Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks. I think they ran out of gas against Louisville in their upset loss, but knowing they have a bye on deck and having their biggest rivals coming to town will allow them to play with max effort this week. USC has played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona. The Trojans have struggled the last three weeks beating Arizona State by 14 as 34.5-point favorites, Colorado by 7 as 22.5-point favorites and Arizona by 2 in OT as 21.5-point favorites. They failed to cover the spread by a combined 55.5 points the last three weeks. I question how much they have left in the tank after needing OT to beat Arizona. USC was outgained by Colorado and gave up 564 total yards to the Buffaloes. USC was outgained by 141 yards by Arizona and gave up 506 total yards to the Wildcats. After escaping with wins against both those mediocre Pac-12 teams, the Trojans' luck runs out this week. They gave up 203 rushing yards to Arizona and 193 rushing yards to Colorado, two teams that had previously struggle to run the football. They also gave up 198 rushing yards to San Jose State and 209 rushing yards to Stanford. Notre Dame is going to have a monster game on the ground against this soft USC defense. I think this is a good 'buy low' spot on Notre Dame after giving the game away last week against Louisville by committing five turnovers. It was an aberration as the Fighting Irish had only committed two turnovers total in the six games prior. Sam Hartman was prone to big turnover games from time to time at Wake Forest, and he got his out of the way on the road at Louisville. Hartman and company will be highly motivated to make amends here at home against USC. USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following two consecutive wins as favorites where they failed to cover the spread. Lincoln Riley is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games as a head coach. Since 2015, there have been 14 teams at 6-0 or better listed as underdogs to a two-loss team. 11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah. This is a big step up in class for the Trojans this week and a test I expect them to fail given the strength of schedule discrepancy and the forecast. Bet Notre Dame Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | Auburn +11.5 v. LSU | Top | 18-48 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 57 m | Show |
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +11.5 The LSU Tigers cannot possibly have much left in the tank. They will be playing for their 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet, especially of late. Three weeks ago they beat Arkansas 34-31, two weeks ago they lost at Ole Miss 55-49 and last week they needed a last-second comeback to beat Missouri 49-39 on the road only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds in what was a misleading score. I expect LSU to be flat as a pancake hosting Auburn this week. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a bye week after giving two-time defending national champion Georgia all they could handle two weeks ago, losing 27-20 as 14-point home dogs. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is one of the most profitable head coaches to back in the entire country. Teams benefit the most from bye weeks with first-year head coaches due to the new schemes, and Auburn will have a tremendous game plan for LSU this week. The game plan should be to run the football on this soft, tired LSU defense. Auburn rushed for 219 yards on Georgia two weeks ago which is no small feat. They rush for 204 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season. LSU allows 163 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season, which is absolutely horrible for a team that recruits as well as LSU. Auburn also has an underrated defense that is holding opponents 11.4 points per game below their season averages. They allow 18.2 points per game, 323 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. LSU allows 32.3 points per game, 446 yards per game and 6.7 per play. Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last six meetings with LSU, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. LSU hasn't beaten Auburn by more than 4 points in any of those seven meetings. Given the terrible spot for the home team and the big rest advantage for the road team, there's no way LSU should be laying double-digits here. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 15 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +7.5 Louisville is in a terrible spot Saturday. They are coming off the big 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as 6.5-point underdogs last week to remain unbeaten. Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals as they will be flat as a pancake this week following one of the biggest wins in program history. This is the classic Pat Narduzzi spot. He has a reeling Pitt team that has gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and I trust Narduzzi to come up with the proper game plan to possibly pull off this upset. It's circle the wagons time, and I'm expecting the biggest effort of the season from Pitt this week with Louisville coming to town. Unfortunately for Narduzzi, he got burned in the transfer portal trusting Phil Jurkovec to be a capable QB. He has been hugely disappointing just as he was at Boston College prior. He is completing just 50.9% of his passes on the season. The Panthers are going with a new quarterback this week, and he'll have the benefit of two weeks of practice preparing to be the starter. It cannot possibly go worse than it has with Jurkovec thus far. This is a night game at Pitt at 6:30 EST Saturday night so the atmosphere will be electric. The forecast is also going to help the underdog with a 96% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds. Louisville's passing game would have the advantage in perfect conditions, but this game is likely to be played more on the ground because of the forecast. That will shorten the game and help the underdog. Pitt only allows 130 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season. Narduzzi is 16-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game as the coach of Pitt. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points ( Pitt) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS overt he last 10 seasons. Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better three times in the regular season, and twice the Panthers won outright. They won 43-42 as 21-point dogs over Clemson when they were 5-4 and Clemson was 9-0 in 2016. They won 24-14 as 12-point dogs over 10-0 Miami when they were 4-7 in 2017. And in 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame in a 19-14 loss as 21-point dogs. Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame. Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites. 15 of the 49 lost outright, and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover the spread since 2011. I would not be surprised at all so see the Panthers pull off the upset here coming off the bye and with the Cardinals in a massive letdown spot. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -10 | 15-6 | Loss | -108 | 92 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -10 Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards. His luck ran out against Penn State in a 31-0 road loss for their lone defeat, and it will run out on the road against similar caliber Wisconsin team again this week. Iowa is only averaging 250 yards pre game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season. Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara. Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB. Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era. Wisconsin has its best offense in years this season with some great balance averaging 205 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry and 210 passing yards per game. The Badgers are averaging 31.4 points per game against teams that only allow 24.4 points per game. They have yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages. They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well. Iowa only averages 121 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry while allowing 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. The Hawkeyes just aren't as strong at the line of scrimmage as they have been in the past, and that's going to be a problem here. Conditions are going to be terrible with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH winds. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage, and I'll side with Badgers as a result. I think they can get 20-plus points in this one, and I would be shocked if Iowa's putrid offense got to 10. Wisconsin held Iowa to 146 total yards last year and 156 total yards in 2021. Bet Wisconsin Saturday. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -137 | Top | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 92 h 31 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Washington ABC No-Brainer on Washington ML -137 I like both of these teams a ton and think both are national title contenders. But Washington gets the good fortune of getting this game at home, and the Huskies have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. It's going to be a raucous atmosphere like nothing Oregon has seen before. Oregon has played two true road games this season and one was at Stanford, which doesn't count. The other was a 38-30 win at Texas Tech and a misleading final. They trailed 27-18 going into the 4th quarter. They also got a 45-yard INT return TD with 35 seconds left as Texas Tech was trying to get in range for the game-winning field goal. The Ducks were +4 in turnovers in that game as well. That's a Texas Tech team that has been far from impressive with losses to Wyoming and West Virginia this season. Washington could not have been more impressive in its three home games this season. The Huskies won 56-19 as 14.5-point favorites against Boise State, 43-10 as 34-point favorites against Tulsa and 59-32 as 20-point favorites against California. They also won 41-7 at Michigan State and 31-24 at Arizona while outgaining the Wildcats by 132 yards. That's a pesky Arizona team that also took USC to OT last week. Oregon has faced a much softer schedule than Washington, and that strength of schedule discrepancy matters a lot. Oregon wants to run the football, and Washington is great at stopping the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. Bo Nix is going to have to try and win this game with his arm, and he has huge home/road splits in his career. I'll gladly side with Michael Penix Jr. over Nix in this one. Penix is the Heisman Trophy favorite right now leading a Washington offense that averages 46.0 points per game, 570 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play. He is completing 74.7% of his passes for 1,999 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season. He led the Huskies to a 37-34 upset win at Oregon last year while throwing for 408 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this Ducks defense. Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. Plays on home teams (Washington) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in three consecutive games, in a game between two teams with eight or more defensive starters back are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1992. Plays on home favorites on the money line (Washington) - following a win in a game involving two top-level teams that win greater than 80% of their games on the season are 53-6 (89.8%, +41.7 Units) over the last five seasons. In the last 19 meetings between Oregon and Washington, the favorite is 16-3 SU & 16-3 ATS. The favorite is also 18-4 SU & 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Ducks are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. They were 6-point dogs on average and lost by an average of 24.8 points per game in these five games. Bet Washington on the Money Line Saturday. |