20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +3.5 

We’ve already found out that the Buffalo Bills are trying to win every game they play.  That was evident last time out in a 41-10 win as 7-point road dogs over the New York Jets.  And now they are coming off their bye week feeling good about themselves, so they’ll be rested and motivated for another win here against the Jaguars. 

I certainly question Jacksonville’s motivation at this point.  This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year, and now they sit at 3-7 off six consecutive losses.  There are issues in the locker room that aren’t fixable.  And they just blew a big lead in a 20-16 loss to the Steelers last week.  I don’t like their state of mind coming into this game at Buffalo. 

Now the Jaguars have to head to colder weather, which they aren’t used to.  And they have to try and get back up off the mat to face a 3-7 Bills team.  I just don’t think they will be motivated at all the rest of the way, especially this week in a hangover spot from that loss to the Steelers. 

The Bills have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.  That matches up with their season-long stats as well.  The Bills are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 302.2 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in yards per play (4.9) allowed.  This is an elite defense, and one that will shut down this putrid Jacksonville offense. 

The Bills get a big boost this week with rookie QB Josh Allen returning to the lineup from an elbow injury.  They have been highly competitive with Allen this season, and pretty bad without him with the exception of that Jets came when Matt Barkley came in and gave them a spark.  I think this offense will take another step forward this week with Allen having two full weeks to prepare for the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars have a laundry list of injuries that has contributed to this six-game losing streak, and it’s not getting any better this week.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland Raiders +11 

The Oakland Raiders showed last week they wouldn’t quit on the season when they went into Arizona and won 23-21 as 4.5-point underdogs.  This line of Baltimore laying 11 points Sunday indicates that the Raiders have quit, but they obviously haven’t.  I think there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching double-digits points here this week. 

Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 24-21 win over the Bengals last week.  And Jackson will make another start in place of Joe Flacco.  But now the Raiders have some game film on him they can use.  And Jackson isn’t going to lead the Ravens to a ton of points simply because his style doesn’t suit it. 

Jackson only threw fate ball 19 times last week for 138 yards against the Bengals.  They rushed 54 times.  They are going to implement a similar game plan here with a run-heavy scheme.  And that will keep the clock moving and make it very predictable for the Raiders. 

It also helps out the Raiders dramatically because they rank 32nd in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.9) allowed, which is their biggest weakness.  The Raiders have at least been respectable against the run and should be able to limit the Ravens’ rushing attack this week. 

The Ravens are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  There’s no way they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and they have been favored in six consecutive games.  I’m confused at all the love for the Ravens at this point. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Oakland) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more yards.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

20* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on Atlanta +13.5 

What the Saints are doing is absolutely remarkable.  They have now covered the spread in eight consecutive games.  How rare is that? Well, it happens less than once per season on average.  And with that point spread success now comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward. 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Saints.  They haven’t been double-digit favorites once this season, and now they are 13.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons this week.  And the Falcons are better than many of the teams they have played, plus they are a division rival that knows the Saints very well.  They simply cannot be laying this kind of number against the Falcons this week. 

The Falcons will show up because it’s a division rival and because it’s the Saints, who are one of the best teams in the NFL.  I actually think the Falcons will want this game more to try and save their season and earn a signature win.  And it’s not like the Falcons are losing by these kinds of margins.  The only time they would have failed to cover this spread was against the Steelers in a 17-41 loss.  The Falcons were banged up badly defensively coming into that game. 

The series history shows there’s value with the Falcons, too.  The Saints haven’t even been a double-digit favorite against the Falcons since 2009, and they haven’t beaten the Falcons by 14 points or more since 2011.  In fact, the Saints haven’t won any of the last 13 meetings by more than 10 points, making for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  And the Falcons will surely be out for revenge from their 37-43 (OT) home loss to the Saints earlier this season. 

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - dominant team that outscores opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Saints OVER 59.5 

Expect a shootout between the Falcons and Saints Thursday night.  They combined for 80 points in their first meeting this season with the Saints winning 43-37 (OT) in Atlanta.  They also combined for 941 total yards in that contest.  I see no reason this game won’t play out the same way in the rematch. 

You already know the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.8 points per game.  They should be able to handle their share.  But they do give up 25.4 points per game at home, and the Falcons should be able to score their share of points as well.  They are scoring 26.3 points per game on the season.  The Falcons have scored at least 31 points in five of their last nine games overall. 

The Falcons are 20-7 OVER in their last 27 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Saints are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games off five or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last four vs. NFC South opponents.  The OVER is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games in a dome.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Chiefs/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +3.5 

I’ve successfully faded the Rams four of the last five weeks.  And I’m going to fade them again this week against the Kansas City Chiefs.  They have consistently been overvalued, and they remain overvalue here as 3.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs in Los Angeles. 

The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They did win six of those games outright, but only one came by more than 7 points.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, but I think their luck runs out this week against a team the caliber of the Chiefs.  And that hook on the +3.5 could certainly come into play here if the Rams do miraculously win another close one. 

The problem with the Rams has been defensively.  They just haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib.  The Rams are giving up 27.9 points per game in their last seven games.  And they are running on fumes right now because they haven’t had a bye week yet, which I think is affecting their defense a lot more than their offense. 

Conversely, the Chiefs have really turned it around on the defensive end after a poor start to the season.  The Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are giving up just 17.0 points per game in their last four games. 

Patrick Mahomes and company are 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense this season at 35.3 points per game.  Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67% of his passes for 3,150 yards with 31 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.  He is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.  It also helps that he has the best set of weapons in the NFL with Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins at his disposal. 

The Rams are 3rd in scoring offense at 33.5 points per game.  But they suffered a big blow last week with Cooper Kupp suffering a torn ACL.  Kupp was leading the team with six touchdown receptions to go along with 40 receptions for 566 yards despite missing two games previously with a knee injury.  He may be the most important receiver on the team as he’s been Jared Goff’s security blanket on 3rd down over the past two seasons.  His loss is getting scraped under the rug here, but it’s a big one, and Sean McVay even said so after the Seahawks game last week. 

So I’m basically getting the better offense and the better defense in this game catching 3.5 points.  And the Chiefs are 9-1 this season with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road on a last-second field goal by a final of 43-40.  The Rams don’t have the same kind of home-field advantage as the Patriots.  You can actually hear opposing fans out-cheer them in their home games, similar to what we saw with the Seahawks last week and the Packers a few weeks back in Los Angeles.  Chiefs fans travel well, too. 

The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Chiefs are winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Note: I originally took the UNDER 63.5 in this game when it was going to be played in Mexico City.  I liked the under because the field conditions were expected to be so sloppy that it was going to be difficult for the offenses to put up points.  But I no longer like the UNDER now that it has been moved to Los Angeles.  I like the Chiefs at +3.5 instead.

20* Vikings/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3 

The bye week came at a great time for the Minnesota Vikings.  They had some of their star players miss last game or the last few games, and they have a good chance at getting back some this week.  WR Stephon Diggs will return from a rib injury, and there’s a good chance both S Andrew Dendejo (groin) and LB Anthony Barr (hamstring) make their returns this week as well.  Not to mention, CB Xavier Rhodes (foot) is expected to play as well. 

The Vikings will be as close to full strength now as they’ve been since Week 1.  And they’ll be highly motivated for a win here Sunday night with first place on the line in the NFC North.  They sit at 5-3-1 right now, just 0.5 games behind the Chicago Bears for first place.  I expect them to handle their business here as I believe they are the better team in both sides of the ball, and they are in a prime spot here off their bye. 

The Bears are starting to get too much respect from the books due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But those three wins came against the Jets, Bills and Lions, which are three of the worst teams in the NFL.  Their other three wins came against the Cardinals, Bucs and Seahawks.  They haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record yet.  In fact, they have only PLAYED one team that currently has a winning record, and that was a home loss to the Patriots.  They have simply feasted on an easy schedule. 

The Vikings have owned the Bears, going 6-1 SU In the last seven meetings.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS off a division win as the coach of Minnesota.  Chicago is 6-24 ATS in its last 30 games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Bears are 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 15.4 points per game on average the next week.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans -2.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They have reeled off six straight victories following an 0-3 start.  Yet they aren’t getting any respect from the books.  They are only 2.5-point favorites here in a great spot against the Washington Redskins, who are one of the most fraudulent 6-3 teams you will ever see. 

The Texans are coming off their bye week.  It was good timing because their defense has injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and at receiver where they could get some guys back that they were missing previously.  And they now come out of the bye playing with a ton of confidence due to the six straight wins.  I think they make it seven in a row Sunday. 

The Redskins have gotten to 6-3 with smoke and mirrors.  And last week’s 16-3 win over Tampa Bay was one of the most misleading box scores of the season.  The Bucs racked up 501 total yards and 29 first downs in that game and punted once, but managed only 3 points.  They held the Redskins to just 286 total yards and outgained them by 225 for the game. 

This is a similar situation to two weeks ago when the Falcons were coming off the bye and facing the Redskins.  They rolled to a 38-14 victory while amassing 491 yards.  So, the Redskins have allowed 496 yards per game on average in their last two games against the Falcons and Bucs.  Their defense is leaky, and their offense is now one of the worst in the league. 

Indeed, the Redskins are scoring just 19.6 points per game on the season while ranking 26th in total offense at 337.4 yards per game.  You just can’t win in this league consistently with those kind of offensive numbers, which is why there’s no way they should be 6-3.  And the offense is only going to continue to be poor due to all the injuries.  The Redskins are missing three starters on the offensive line, and they have a few others questionable.  They have also been playing without their top two playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, as well as receiver Paul Richardson. 

The bye also gave new receiver Demaryius Thomas time to get acclimated to the offense.  The Texans, who rank 14th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game while scoring 24.0 points per game, should only continue to get better on offense now with Thomas around.  And they could finally get fellow receiver Keke Coutee back from a hamstring injury this week. 

Defensively, the Texans have one of the best units in the league.  They are giving up just 20.4 points per game while ranking 9th in total defense at 336.3 yards per game.  JJ Watt is in line to earn Comeback Player of the Year as he’s back to being his former self.  And Jadeveon Clowney is also wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks.  Watt and Clowney will be licking their chops at the opportunity to get after Alex Smith while working against a Redskins offensive line full of backups. 

Jay Gruden is 2-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Redskins are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a tam with a winning road record.  Washington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following a win. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Texans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2 

The Colts are such a better team with Andrew Luck at quarterback that it’s like night and day.  They have been competitive this season and come in playing their best football of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, outscoring their last three opponents by a combined 49 points.  Yet they continue to get no respect as only 2-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans this week. 

The Titans looked awful through their first seven games this year.  They opened 3-4 with all three of their wins coming by exactly 3 points.  But then they had their bye week and have delivered back-to-back eye-opening performances, winning 28-14 at Dallas and 34-10 at home against New England.  No question those two results were impressive, but it also has the Titans now overvalued. 

And I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans.  We’ve seen several teams over the years have a letdown after beating the Patriots, and I expect that to be the case again this week.  Mike Vraebel and company put a lot of effort into beating their former team last week, including Dion Lewis, who was not shy with his comments after the game about how much the team wanted to beat the Patriots.  It’s only human nature for them to have a letdown the next week. 

Even after those two performances, the Titans are still scoring just 18.7 points per game on the season while ranking 30th in total offense at 299.0 yards per game.  This offense still isn’t any good, and it doesn’t stand much of a chance of keeping up with the Colts score for score.  The Colts are scoring 28.9 points per game while ranking 9th in total offense at 379.8 yards per game behind Luck.  And they’ve gotten some key playmakers back in recent weeks in T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack that will only make them even more explosive moving forward. 

The Titans are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The Colts are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Titans are 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indianapolis is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 November games.  The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Tennessee) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

15* Packers/Seahawks NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -2.5 

Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that’s being factored into the line enough here.  The home team is now 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in Thursday games thiss Eason.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

I actually have the Packers and Seahawks power-rated as basically even teams on a neutral field.  But when you factor in the home field for the Seahawks, and the situation with this being a short week and them only having to travel from Los Angeles to Seattle, while the Packers have to travel from Green Bay all the way to Seattle, and I think there’s ample value to back the Seahawks as 2.5-point home favorites here. 

The Seahawks are clearly better than a 4-5 team, too.  All five of their losses have come by 8 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in every game.  That includes 2 and 5-point losses to the Rams, who many consider to be the best team in the NFL.  The other losses were to the Broncos, Bears and Chargers with the first two of those on the road.  The Seahawks are actually outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game on the season despite their record.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have played six of their first nine games on the road. 

Green Bay has a big home-road split this season.  The Packers are 4-0-1 at home where they have handled their business.  However, the Packers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game on average.  They lost to the Redskins by 14, the Lions by 8 and the Patriots by 14.  The Redskins and Lions aren’t as good as the Seahawks. 

Seattle is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after a game where 60 or more points were scored.  Pete Carroll is 17-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on Thursday as the coach of Seattle.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Thursday. 

20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 

The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7.  I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games.  It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose.  And the defenses aren’t prepared for it. 

I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start.  They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders.  Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns.  He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans.  He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league. 

The Giants’ offense has held them back so far.  And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far.  So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense.  They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley.  They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense.  The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season. 

The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons.  They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +7 

This is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Dallas Cowboys.  Everyone saw them lose to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football last week, and now the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But it was their own mistakes that cost them in that game, and they’re easily fixable. 

For starters, the Cowboys rushed for over 50 yards in the first quarter, but then were held to just 72 yards for the entire game.  That’s because they quit trying to run the ball.  They were up 7-0 and instead of running it, Dak Prescott threw an interception in the end zone.  It totally changed the complexion of the game.  They managed to run the ball just 19 times the whole game.  I think they’ll make the proper adjustments and force feed Zeke Elliott, which is when they are at their best offensively. 

I know the Eagles are off a bye week, but I think that’s getting factored into the line too much.  Most would say the Cowboys are on a short week, which they are, but it’s not a true short week.  The Cowboys had their bye prior to the Titans game.  So this will still be just their 2nd game in 21 days.  They should be plenty fresh for this game. 

The Cowboys will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder to redeem themselves from that poor Monday night performance.  And they realize this is a must-win game, so they will be laying it all on the line.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Eagles or the Redskins in the NFC East if they want a realistic shot of winning the division.  A win and they’re right back in the hunt.  I have no doubt they’ll show up with a big effort Sunday night. 

It’s certainly worth noting that Dallas hasn’t been more than a 3-point underdog all season to anyone.  So we’re getting value here on them as 7-point dogs.  And they have seemed to thrive in the role of the underdog in recent seasons, and struggle in the favorite role.  Dallas is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off a loss by 14 points or more. 

And it’s not like the Eagles are blowing anyone out this season.  They are clearly in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover at 4-4 on the season.  Only one of their four wins came by more than 6 points, and that was against the hapless Giants.  It’s worth noting the Giants actually outgained them in that contest, and the Eagles have been outgained in five of their eight games this season.  In fact, seven of the eight Eagles games have been decided by 6 points or fewer this season. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Dallas) - in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 99-51 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.  Grass fields fit perfectly into what they want to do, which is run the football.  The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on grass.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday night. 

20* Seahawks/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +10 

Fading the Los Angeles Rams has paid off big-time for myself and my clients of late.  And I’m not going to stop now that they are 10-point home favorites here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is once again too many points as the Rams continue to be overvalued due to their 8-1 record, previously 8-0 before they finally lost to the Saints last week, and I had the Saints as my 25* NFC GOTY. 

The Rams are now just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won just one game by more than 7 points during this stretch, and that was against the 49ers.  And I certainly question the Rams’ motivation coming into this game.  They are in a ‘hangover’ spot from their loss to the Rams, and a ‘look-ahead’ spot because they play the Chiefs next week.  That makes this a sandwich game from them, and I’m not expecting their best effort. 

The Seahawks will be playing with revenge in mind after losing a 31-33 heartbreaker at home to the Rams in Seattle in the first meeting.  The Seahawks actually led that game by 7 points in the fourth quarter before getting outscored 9-0 in the final period to lose by two.  At 4-4 on the season, this feels like a make-or-break game for the Seahawks as well if they want any shot of making the playoffs. 

All four of Seattle’s losses this season came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game and haven’t lost yet by double-digits.  And this is the biggest underdog role of Russell Wilson’s career.  He’s never been a double-digit dog.  And Wilson is 3-0 ATS when listed as a dog of 7.5 points or more in his career. 

The Rams have some defensive problems right now.  They have allowed over 27 points per game int heir last six games coming in.  They haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib to injury, and their pass defense has suffered.  The Seahawks also rushed for 190 yards on the Rams in their first meeting.  The Rams are 24th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are 7th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are also 3rd in turnover differential this season, so they don’t beat themselves. 

I also think the Rams could be getting tired, which is another big reason I’ve faded them so frequently of late.  They are one of the few teams who have yet to have their bye week.  They don’t get their bye until Week 12 after they play the Chiefs, and by then they will certainly need it.  I also think the Rams have very little home-field advantage, as the Packers actually seemed like they were the home team when they played the Rams a few weeks ago. 

Pete Carroll is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Rams are once again getting way too much respect from the books this week, and it will show up on the scoreboard as Seattle has a shot to win this game outright.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +7 

This is the perfect opportunity to ‘sell high’ on the Chicago Bears and ‘buy low’ on the Detroit Lions.  This line is maxed out with Chicago -7 as they should never be a 7-point favorite over the Lions.  But because the public has seen the Bears succeed lately and the Lions fail, oddsmakers have to set this line higher than it should be knowing the public will be quick to back the Bears. 

Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins and covers with a 24-10 home victory over the Jets, and a 41-9 road victory at the Bills.  Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Jets were banged up, especially at receiver with no weapons.  And the Bills gave the game away with four turnovers. 

There was no more misleading final score than Chicago 41-9 victory over the Bills last week.  Indeed, the Bears only managed 190 total yards in that game and were actually outgained by 74 yards by the Bills.  You read that right, the Bears had less than 200 total yards yet still scored 41 points.  I can’t remember the last time that happened.  So we’re getting extra value here due to that misleading score. 

Conversely, Detroit is coming off two straight poor performances.  They lost 14-28 at home to the Seahawks and 9-24 on the road to the Vikings.  Well, they had every chance to score in the red zone but committed 3 turnovers against Seattle.  And that was a Seahawks team coming off a bye, so it was a favorable spot for them.  And in the 9-24 loss to the Vikings the Lions played well defensively, giving up just 283 total yards.  Both of those games were closer than the final scores, and both were against two of the better teams in the NFC, not the weak competition Chicago has feasted on. 

Chicago’s five wins this season have come against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs, Jets and Bills.  Those five teams are a combined 14-27 this season, and non has a winning record.  The Lions have beaten the Patriots and Packers, so they’ve proven they can play with anyone.  And I think we get a big effort from them here knowing their season is on the line.  A win and the Lions would pull within one game of first place in the NFC North.  A loss and they would be facing an insurmountable deficit, three games behind the Bears.  Detroit will be the more motivated team, hands down. 

Matthew Stafford clearly loves facing the Bears, as evidenced by Detroit’s domination in this series in recent years.  Indeed, the Lions are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 14-17 at Soldier Field.  If the Bears win this game, it won’t be by more than 7 points.  There is a ton of value on the Lions this week. 

Plays against home teams (Chicago) who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Their turnover luck has been great this season, and they can’t keep forcing turnovers at this rate.  And this just goes to show you how there’s value in fading a team coming off a 4-turnover game like the Bears had against the Bills last week. 

The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after tailing their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Lions Sunday. 

20* Panthers/Steelers Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are rolling right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four victories coming by at least 7 points and by an average of 13.3 points per game.  They should keep rolling tonight in this Thursday home matchup with the Carolina Panthers. 

The Panthers are also playing well having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public as this line has dropped from -5 down to -3. I certainly love the Steelers at -3 now and I’m glad I waited for it to keep dropping before pulling the trigger. 

The Panthers have done all their damage at home this season.  They’ve played five home games compared to just three road games.  The Panthers are 1-2 on the road this season, losing to the Falcons and Redskins while getting a fortunate win at Philadelphia after erasing a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter.  They’re just not the same team on the highway. 

These Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that is being factored into the line here.  The home team is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games this season.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games coming in.  The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Steelers Thursday. 

20* Titans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -5 

The Cowboys can’t afford to fall further behind the Redskins in the NFC East, especially after losing to them last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to recover after missing a potential game-tying field goal at the gun.  And I look for them to play with an attitude here Monday night against the Tennessee Titans. 

The vibes have to be pretty good in Dallas after management made a huge trade to get Amari Cooper.  The Cowboys had arguably the worst playmakers in the NFL at receiver prior to the trade, so Cooper is going to be worth a lot to this team.  And they’ve had nearly two weeks to get him acclimated to the offense. 

Having Cooper will help the play-action passing game flourish for sure.  Because the Cowboys are already great at running the ball, averaging 137 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And they should have some success against a Titans defense that has allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of their seven games this season.  Plus, opposing teams like the Titans won’t be able to stack eight in the box to try and stop Zeke Elliott any more because the Prescott can make them pay. 

I really like this Dallas defense, though.  The Cowboys are giving up just 17.6 points and 313.7 yards per game this season.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense this year.  That’s bad news for the Titans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Indeed, the Titans rank 30th in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 30th in total offense (280.9 yards/game).  Consider that only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse on offense, and those are two terrible offensives.  Those three units are far and away the three worst offenses in the league. 

Dallas has had some drastic home/road splits this season.  The Cowboys are 0-4 on the road, but 3-0 at home.  They are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points per game in their three home games this year.  They are scoring 28.7 points per game and giving up just 14.7 points per game at home.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay this big of a spread with the Cowboys as 5-point favorites.  They should have no problem winning by a touchdown or more. 

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-4 this season.  All three of their wins came by exactly a field goal, and two of those were at home.  Their only road win came at Jacksonville in a huge letdown spot for the Jaguars off their win over the Patriots the previous week.  They also lost outright to both Miami and Buffalo on the road.  So I give them little chance of pulling off this upset, let alone staying within 5 points of the Cowboys. 

Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Cowboys are winning by 14.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Jason Garrett is 19-9 ATS vs. AFC opponents as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 9-27-3 ATS in its last 39 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Dallas is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Cowboys Monday. 

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1.5 

I won on the Packers last week fading the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.  And I’m fading the Rams again this week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 8-0 record this season, and I’ve been fading them almost every week because of it.  No team is going to go 16-0, and this is the Rams’ best chance to lose a game to date when they have to travel to face the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome this week. 

The Rams have won four of their last five games by a touchdown or less and have gone 1-4 ATS in the process.  They are starting to show their vulnerabilities, and that 1-4 ATS run just shows how overvalued they’ve been.  Their four road wins have come against the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers.  They only beat the Seahawks by 2 and the Broncos by 3.  This will be by far the Rams’ stiffest road test to date. 

The Saints are winning with conviction of late.  They have reeled off six straight victories since their upset loss to the Bucs to open the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Three of their last four wins have come by double-digits. 

The Saints are fresh after having a bye in Week 6.  They returned from that bye and went on the road to beat the Ravens and the Vikings, two impressive victories.  And now they return home to what will be a raucous home crowd Sunday afternoon with essentially first place on the line in the NFC. 

I think a big reason for the Rams’ recent struggles to put teams away is that they are simply getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye week yet and don’t get it until Week 12.  And after playing a dog fight against the Packers last week, I’m not sure what they’ll have left in the tank for the Saints this week. 

Todd Gurley has been a beast for the Rams this season.  But the Saints actually have what it takes to slow him down.  The Saints rank 1st in the NFL against the run this season, giving up just 74.1 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry.  It has been a big reason for their resurgence the last several weeks, and I look for it to be a key factor in why they win this game as well. 

The Saints are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 30-62-1 ATS in their last 93 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  When the Saints have to play a good team at home, they usually take care of business.  Finally, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +10 

Betting on teams after they fire their head coach is usually a great spot to do so.  Teams get rejuvenated for one week with a new voice, and that should be the case here for the Cleveland Browns.  I love them catching nearly double-digits at home this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I expect one of their best efforts of the season here. 

The Chiefs are overvalued due to their 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS start to the season.  You’re starting to have to pay a tax on them.  I faded the Chiefs last week with success as they were 10-point favorites over the Broncos and won by 7.  I’m fading them again this week, this time as 10-point road favorites, but I like the Browns all the way down to +7 in this one if you can’t get the great line that I did. 

So we’ll ‘sell high’ on the Chiefs and ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are coming off three straight losses.  But the Browns are 2-1-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Chargers.  They beat the Jets and Ravens, and tied the Steelers.  So they’ve already played two of the best teams in the AFC in the Ravens and Steelers and stood toe-to-toe with them at home. 

Greg Williams is a great defensive coordinator, and the Browns still have a very good defense.  Their problem has been against the run, but they’ve been good against the pass, making this a great matchup for them.  The Browns are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.7 yards per attempt against QB’s that average 7.6 yards per attempt, so they’re holding them 0.9 yards per attempt less than their season averages. 

The Browns should be able to really get their offense going this week against a Kansas City defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank 31st in total defense, giving up 432.4 yards per game.  They are also 27th in yards per play (6.3) allowed.  That’s why the Chiefs can’t sustain this success is because they have a terrible defense.  And they have some key injuries on defense with Eric Berry doubtful, and starting LB’s Justin Houston and Anthony Hitchens questionable.  The Chiefs also give up 5.4 yards per carry while the Browns have been running the ball well, averaging 127 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They can control the ball with their running game and keep Mahomes off the field. 

Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games coming in.  It is actually losing outright by 1.7 points per game in this spot.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  There is a ton of value catching the Browns as more than TD home underdogs this weekend.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -2 

I realize the Steelers are going to want revenge from their 26-14 home loss to the Ravens earlier this season.  That is definitely a factor, but I don’t think the Steelers will be any more motivated than the Ravens.  In fact, I actually think Baltimore is the more motivated team coming into this game. 

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back losses to the Saints and Panthers, and there’s no shame in those two losses.  But sitting at 4-4 on the season compared to 4-2-1 for the Steelers, this is essentially a must-win game for the Ravens.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Steelers if they want to win the division.  And knowing that they have a bye on deck next week, the Ravens will be ‘all in’ Sunday to try and go into their bye with a win and some momentum heading into the second half of the season. 

I think there’s value getting the Ravens here as less than a field goal favorite.  The Steelers are starting to get some respect because of their three-game winning streak coming in.  But they beat a Falcons team that had all kinds of injury issues, beat a Bengals team that they have simply owned over the past decade, and their other win came against Cleveland off their bye week.  Those three wins aren’t impressive at all. 

It’s pretty clear to me that despite having the worse record, the Ravens are actually the better of these two teams.  The Ravens are outgaining their opponents by 85 yards per game this season.  That’s one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL scoring defense (17.1 PPG), 1st in total defense (293.8 yarsd/game) and 1st in yards per play (4.7) allowed.  They also have a vastly improved offense this season that ranks 14th in total offense (379.2 yards/game). 

The Steelers are also a good team, outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game.  While impressive, it isn’t as good as the Ravens, and it’s largely due to the lack of competitive over the last three weeks.  The Steelers still have all kinds of issues on defense.  They are 16th in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) and 16th in total defense (359.7 yards/game). 

Pittsburgh didn’t score a single point against Baltimore in three of the four quarters in their first meeting.  The Ravens won that game 26-14, and Joe Flacco had a monster day.  He completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns int he win.  He clearly knows how to beat this soft Pittsburgh defense, and I look for the Ravens to hang another big number on the Steelers in the rematch. 

Mike Tomlin is 2-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he has been at home in his career.  He is only averaging 22.4 points per game on the road.  And he has a 55-to-40 TD/INT ratio on the road compared to a 107-to-40 ratio at home.  John Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are coming back to win by 10 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 

We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night.  It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way.  And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case.  The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. 

And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland.  The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season.  The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. 

Both offenses have actually been pretty good.  The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game.  Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more.  That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game.   

The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers.  They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight.  They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. 

I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried.  The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone.  And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense.  They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. 

Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival.  The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November.  The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9.  The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Patriots/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New England -13.5 

I rarely take double-digit favorites in the NFL.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time I took a double-digit road favorite.  That being said, I think the Patriots can cover this 13.5-point spread at Buffalo this week.  The Bills are the new Cleveland Browns of the NFL this season, especially without Josh Allen at quarterback. 

Allen injured his elbow two weeks ago against the Texans with the Bills actually leading late.  Nathan Peterman came in and through one of his patented pick-six’s, and the rest was history.  The Bills new they couldn’t even be competitive with Peterman, so they signed Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

That experiment didn’t work either.  The Bills were routed 37-5 at Indianapolis last week and committed five turnovers.  Anderson is expected to get the start again this week, and while he should be a little sharper, I don’t think he stands much of a chance of making the Bills competitive.  Especially not against a team that caliber of the Patriots. 

The Patriots have been a juggernaut ever since opening 1-2.  They added Josh Gordon and got Julian Edelman back from suspension, and their offense has taken off.  The Patriots are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only non-cover was a 3-point win over the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. 

The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games while averaging 39.3 points per game during this span.  I think they can get to 38-plus here against the Bills, which should be more than enough to cover this 13.5-point spread. 

The Bills are dead last in scoring offense at 11.6 points per game and 31st in total offense at 234.0 yards per game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly generate enough offense with Anderson at quarterback and the worst receivers in the NFL to hang with the Patriots. 

The Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo.  They have won their last three meetings with the Bills by 21, 20 and 16 points.  And those were better Buffalo teams than this 2018 version.  New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games.  The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing record.  There will be no letdown for Tom Brady and company on Monday Night Football.  Bet the Patriots Monday. 

20* Packers/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +10.5 

Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog as a starting quarterback in his career.  So from a value perspective, I love getting Rodgers as a double-digit underdog here against the Los Angeles Rams.  Rodgers is 4-0 ATS lifetime as an underdog of 6 points or more. 

Plus, the Packers are coming off their bye week, so they’ll be rested an ready to go.  The bye week has allowed several players to get healthy, including tackles Brian Bulaga and Jason Spriggs, CB Breshaud Breeland, and WR’s Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons on offense for the first time this season.  And the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued due to their 7-0 start.  They are the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and the betting public flocks to unbeaten teams.  With that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Rams are good, but they are not 10 points better than the Packers. 

The Packers are 3-2-1 this season, but their numbers suggest they are a better team than that.  They are putting up 421 yards per game on offense and giving up just 328 yards per game on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They have what it takes to hang with the Rams for four quarters.  And with Rodgers under center they’ll never be out of it. 

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rams.  I think this is a tough spot for the Rams off three straight road games.  Teams on the road this long are always tired when they get home, and there are more obligations when they get home.  It’s a big distraction, and I think it will be for the Rams here. 

Mike McCarthy is 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games as the coach of Green Bay.  The Rams are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  The Rams are overvalued off their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

Note: The Packers are a 20* all the way down to +7.5.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  They are not only 6-1 SU, but also 7-0 ATS this season.  They are the only team that has covered the spread on every closing line this year.  Of course that’s going to attract betting from the public. 

But this line has gotten out of hand this week.  The Chiefs are now 10.5-point home favorites over the Broncos.  This is a Broncos team that gave the Chiefs one of their toughest games of the season in Denver.  They only lost 23-27 after blowing a late 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.  Now, just four weeks later, they get their shot at revenge. 

I love the spot for the Broncos because of the revenge, but also because they have extra rest here.  They played last Thursday in what was a must-win game and came through with their best performance of the season.  They throttled Arizona 45-10 as 1-point road favorites.  But they are getting no credit for that win, while the Chiefs are getting a ton of love after beating the Bengals 45-10 on Sunday Night Football. 

The Chiefs have been getting by with bad defense as they rank dead last in total defense at 435.4 yards per game allowed.  They are only outgaining opponents by 2 yards per game on the season.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS.  At some point, it’s going to catch up with them being this bad defensively. 

Compare their numbers to Denver and these are two pretty evenly matched teams.  The Broncos are also getting outgained by two years per game this season.  They have a vastly improved offense that is putting up 23.6 points and 376.4 yards per game this season.  Their defense has a lot more talent than the numbers have shown to this point as they’re giving up 23.4 points and 378 yards per game.   

They held the Chiefs to just 13 points in the first 53 minutes last meeting, so they know what it takes to slow them down.  Now they just got to find a way to stop the Chiefs late if they want to pull off the upset.  The good news is they don’t have to win this game for us to win, they just have to stay within 10 points, which shouldn’t be a problem.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 

I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed.  They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed.  The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. 

Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons.  The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall.  They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total.  And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. 

The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Dolphins/Texans AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston -7.5 

Most folks wrote the Houston Texans off after an 0-3 start.  But a closer look at the numbers showed that they simply were unfortunate to lose all three games.  They were outgained by 64 yards at New England, but they outgained Tennessee by 154 yards and New York by 48 yards and probably should have won both of those games. 

Since then the Texans have reeled off four straight victories and are currently in first place in the AFC South.  And they have a great opportunity here to grab a stranglehold on the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins Thursday night.  I think they win in blowout fashion here at home tonight. 

The numbers show the Texans are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining opponents by 42 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  Watson and the offense are moving the football at will, and JJ Watt and the defense are playing at a very high level.  They have allowed 7, 13 and 16 points in their last three games, respectively. 

I think this Houston defense will feast on a banged-up Miami offense that is playing with a backup QB and has several injury concerns at receiver.  Brock Osweiler will start in place of Ryan Tannehill.  And he’ll be without his two best weapons in Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, while DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola will both be playing through injury.  Stills is averaging 17.6 YPC with 4 touchdowns while Wilson is averaging 15.0 YPC with 4 touchdowns.  That’s two huge losses. 

The Dolphins are not a very good team as they’re a fraudulent 4-3 this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  The problem I have with Miami is their defense, which is giving up 405.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They are soft at the line is scrimmage, giving up 137 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They’re also allowing 269 passing yards per game and 8.0 per attempt. 

Adam Gase is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss as the coach of Miami.  The Dolphins are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Texans Thursday. 

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

15* Bengals/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -5.5 

Clearly the oddsmakers can’t catch up to how good the Chiefs really are this season.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their six games.  And now they’re laying less than a touchdown at home to a Cincinnati team that I believe is the overvalued one of these two squads. 

I went against the Bengals last week with the Steelers.  And though the Steelers scored in the final seconds to win 28-21, they dominated that game by outgaining the Bengals by 206 yards.  Keep in mind that the Chiefs went on the road and beat the Steelers 42-37, while the Bengals lost at home to the Steelers. 

Despite their 4-2 record, the Bengals have actually been outgained in four of tier six games this season.  They are getting outgained by 57 yards per game on the season.  That’s not something you normally see from a 4-2 team, and it’s clearly a sign that the Bengals are overrated. 

What’s most remarkable about this 5-1 start by the Chiefs is that they’ve played a really tough schedule.  They have played four road games and only two home games.  They are 3-1 on the road with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal 43-40 at New England.  They are 2-0 at home with two double-digit victories over the 49ers and the Jaguars. 

Both teams have bad defenses, there’s no denying that as each is giving up over 400 yards per game this season.  But the Chiefs have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  They are scoring 35.8 points per game this season.  Patrick Mahomes has been unstoppable, and they’ve only committed five turnovers in six games.  I don’t believe Andy Dalton has what it takes to match Mahomes score for score in this one. 

The Chiefs are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall and simply continues to be undervalued week after week.  They should be at least 7-point home favorites over the Bengals this week.  Take the Chiefs Sunday night. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +10 

I faded the Rams last week with the Broncos and I’m fading them again here.  The betting public loves to bet the undefeated teams like the Rams.  They are 6-0 this season, but the odds are starting to catch up with them as they are now the most overvalued team in the NFL in my opinion. 

They were 7-point home favorites against the Vikings three weeks ago and didn’t cover.  They were 7-point road favorites at the Seahawks and needed a late rally to win that game 33-31 and failed to cover.  And last week they led the Broncos in the back door in a 23-20 road win as 7-point favorites.  So they easily could have lost those three games. 

Now the Rams are being asked to go on the road against a division rival and lay double-digits here to the San Francisco 49ers.  This is my favorite play Sunday on the 49ers.  And the Rams have all kinds of injury concerns right now.  Cooper Kupp is out with a knee injury, Aqib Talib is out with an ankle injury, and Michael Brockers may not play due to a shoulder injury. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the 1-5 49ers who lost Jimmy G to a season-ending injury in a Week 3 loss at Kansas City.  They have gone 0-3 since his injury with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  But a closer look shows that the 49ers could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3 with Beathard, and it’s that hidden fact that provides the value here. 

Three weeks ago the 49ers only lost 27-29 at the Chargers are 10.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 4 yards in that game.  Their offense put up a respectable 364 total yards.  Two weeks ago they 49ers lost 18-28 at home to the Cardinals, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the year.  The 49ers racked up 447 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0.  And last week they led the Packers 30-23 late in the 4th quarter before giving up 10 unanswered points to lose 33-30. 

Once again, the 49ers had no problem moving the football on the Packers as they amassed 401 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  So this offense has put up an average of 25.0 points and 404 yards per game with Beathard at QB the last three weeks, numbers that would rank up there toward the tops in the NFL in terms of offensive production.  But they have lost the turnover battle 10-1 in those three games, yet still had a great chance to win all three.  If they can simply cut down on turnovers they will be just fine. 

And the Rams haven’t been great at forcing turnovers this season as they’ve forced one or fewer in four games.  This is a Rams defense that has been gashed by the Vikings, Seahawks and Broncos the last three weeks.  They are giving up 27.3 points and 392 yards per game on average in those three contests.  The 49ers should have no problem moving the ball and putting up points on them, matching them score for score. 

San Francisco has simply had Los Angeles’ number in recent years.  Indeed, the 49ers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss was a 2-point loss at home to Jared Goff and the Rams by a final of 41-39 last year as 3-point underdogs.  And that was with Brian Hoyer at quarterback.  They are now 10-point home underdogs a year later in the rematch.  That just goes to show you the kind of line value we are getting with the 49ers here. 

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.  The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Rams.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Saints/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore -2.5 

I was on the Ravens last week as my free pick when they dominated the Titans 21-0.  The shocking stat out of that game is that the Ravens recorded 11 sacks while Marcus Mariota completed just 10 passes.  It was just another feat by this Ravens defense that has been the best in the league by far. 

In fact, the Ravens haven’t allowed a touchdown in the 2nd half of a game yet this season.  They are the first team in over 80 yards who hasn’t allowed a second-half touchdown through six games.  It just shows that they are getting better as the game goes along and making all the right adjustments at halftime. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.  They are giving up just 12.8 points and 271 yards per game on defense.  And Joe Flacco has plenty of playmakers on offense to get the job done this year.  The Ravens rank 9th in the NFL in total offense at 393 yards per game.  The Ravens are outgaining teams by 122 yards per game this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued due to a four-game winning streak, including three straight covers against the Falcons, Giants and Redskins.  Their other win was a 3-point home victory over the Browns. 

Some bye weeks are better than others.  When a team like the Saints has momentum, they don’t want a bye week.  They will be going into their bye week fat and happy off their blowout win over the Redskins with Drew Brees setting the all-time passing record.  We saw last week the Bears coming off a blowout win over the Bucs and off their bye fall flat on their faces against the Dolphins and lose outright as 7-point favorites. 

The Saints are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. at team with a winning record.  The Ravens are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (New Orlando) - off three or more consecutive ATS wins, in the first half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows that there is value going against road teams who are on an extended ATS winning streak like the Saints are.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* Broncos/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -1 

John Elway has called out the Broncos.  From players to coaches, everyone is on the hot seat now.  And I think that the Broncos will be playing with more of a sense of urgency than most Thursday night road teams would be.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the points with them on the road here.  It also helps that they’re playing arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. 

“At some point in time, we have to play better football.  We’re still making the mistakes we shouldn’t make to beat good football teams like the Rams,” Elway told Orange and Blue 760 radio. “It’s disappointing, that’s for sure. Hopefully we can take a mentality into that Thursday night game where we’re fighting for our lives.” 

Denver is in the midst of a four-game losing streak.  But they were underdogs in all four games, so it’s not a surprise.  They lost on the road to the Ravens and Jets, and they lost at home to the Chiefs and Rams.  But the Chiefs and Rams are arguably the two best teams in the NFL, and they nearly beat both.  They blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead to the Chiefs to lost 23-27, and they gave the Rams all they wanted in a 20-23 defeat. 

Now the Broncos get their easiest game of the season to this point here against the Cardinals.  This is a Cardinals team that ranks dead last in scoring offense at 13.7 points per game and dead last in total offense at 220.5 yards per game. 

Defensively, the Cardinals haven’t been much better, giving up 394.3 yards per game this season.  So they are getting outgained by a ridiculous 174 yards per game this season, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL, which is why I would argue that they are the worst team in the league. 

The Cardinals are 1-5 this season, and their only win this year came at home 28-18 over the 49ers.  But that was perhaps the most misleading score of the entire season.  The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards in that game and should have won.  But the Cardinals won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference. 

Plays on road teams (Denver) with a poor defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games are 32-12 (72.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos have gone 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals.  Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They just have to win the game to cover this small number, and they should do just that.  Take the Broncos Thursday. 

20* 49ers/Packers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 46 

I think this total is lower than it should be Monday night between the Packers and 49ers.  And a big reason for that is because the perception is that both of these offenses struggled in their last games, but the reality is that both of them moved the football at will, it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. 

The Packers had 521 total yards against the Lions last week, including 423 passing, yet only managed 23 points.  Well a big reason for that was they had to settle for a bunch of field goals, and Mason Crosby missed three field goals and an extra point, which is basically 10 points off the board that they would have had otherwise. 

For the 49ers, they had 447 total yards against the Cardinals, including 300 passing, but only got 18 points out of it.  Their demise were the five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  I have to think that both offenses will fare better on the scoreboard this week if they continue moving the ball like they did last week, especially against these two weak defenses. 

Both teams have all kinds of injuries on defense right now.  The Packers lost DE Muhammad Wilkerson to a season-ending injury.  Starting CB Devon House is out, as is starting ILB Jake Ryan.  Fellow OLB Nick Perry is questionable, and CB’s Breshaud Breeland, Kevin King and Jaire Alexander is questionable.  For the 49ers, they could be without starting FS Jimmie Ward, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The 49ers are already giving up 29.2 points per game this season.  The Packers should have no problem moving the football and scoring points on them.  This is an elite Packers offense that is averaging 401 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 338 yards per game.  They have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses, and the 49ers may have the worst defense that they’ve faced yet. 

I know Jimmy G is out with a season-ending injury, but the 49ers have had no problem moving the ball with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  He led the 49ers to 27 points and 364 total yards against the Chargers in his first start two weeks ago.  Then he led them to 447 total yards against a good Arizona defense last week.  I expect the Packers to get to 30 and the 49ers to get to at least 20 in this game, which would easily take care of this 46-point total. 

The OVER is 10-2 in Packers last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Green Bay is 9-1 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 7-0 in 49ers last seven games on grass.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.  These last three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -3 

The Patriots are actually undervalued right now because they got off to a poor start this season.  They opened 1-2 with ugly road losses to Jacksonville and Detroit.  But they’ve gotten healthier these last few weeks, and it has shown with back-to-back wins and covered at home against Miami (38-7) as 6.5-point favorites and Indianapolis (38-24) as 10.5-point favorites. 

Now the Patriots have extra rest after beating the Colts last Thursday in what was a 24-3 game at the half as they coasted to victory after intermission.  And their offense is much more dynamic now.  Josh Gordon has a few games under his belt now and showed what he could bring to this team with a huge TD catch in double-coverage against the Colts.  And Julian Edelman returned from a four-game suspension last week, catching seven balls for 57 yards.  This now has the potential to be one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward with the likes of Edelman, Gronk, Gordon, Chris Hogan, Sony Michel and James White leading the way. 

The Chiefs clearly come into this game overvalued now after opening the season 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point road underdogs to the Patriots.  I think New England’s home field is worth more than 3 points, and so this line suggests that Kansas City is actually the better team.  I beg to differ, and I think that shows on the field Sunday night. 

No question the Chiefs have a great offense that is hitting on all cylinders.  But I don’t think their offense is any more dynamic than New England’s currently.  And there’s no doubt that the Patriots have the better defense, giving up 21.6 points and 366 yards per game.  The Chiefs are giving up 25.8 points and 462 yards per game, ranking dead last in the NFL in total defense.  You can’t rank last in total defense and be considered the best team in the NFL.  It will catch up with them sooner rather than later, starting this week. 

Last week’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville was a misleading final.  The Jaguars racked up 502 total yards on the Chiefs, including 401 passing.  But they committed five turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown, and several others that led to scores.  Patrick Mahomes actually threw his first two interceptions of the season without a touchdown in that contest.  The Chiefs were very fortunate to win as Blake Bortles simply gave the game away.  Tom Brady won’t make those same mistakes, and he will score almost every time he touches the football against this putrid Kansas City defense. 

Keep in mind the Patriots also want revenge from a 42-27 home loss to the Chiefs in their season opener last year.  They were embarrassed in that game and have not forgotten.  And if anyone can scheme up a game plan to stop Patrick Mahomes, especially with extra time to prepare, it’s certainly Bill Belichick. 

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning by 12.4 points per game on average.  The Patriots are 7-0 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that are averaging 6 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  New England is 7-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing New England.  Bet the Patriots Sunday night. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7 

The Los Angeles Rams are 5-0 and the talk of the league right now.  It seems as though everyone is already trying to crown them Super Bowl champs.  But with that 5-0 start and all the hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to. 

The Rams were laying 7 points to the Vikings two weeks ago and won by 7.  Then they were asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Seahawks last week and needed a last-second field goal to win 33-31.  And now they’re once again being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Denver Broncos this week. 

The Rams have mounting injury problems right now.  Both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were knocked out of that Seattle game with concussions and did not return in the second half.  Tight end Tyler Higbee also suffered an injury that forced him out of action.  All three players are questionable, leaving this offense lacking playmakers heading into this game with the Broncos. 

Defensively, the Rams are missing cornerback Aqib Talib, and fellow corner Marcus Peters is playing through injury and was torched time and time again last week.  This is a Rams defense that has not lived up to expectations, giving up a combined 62 points to the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks. 

The Broncos come in hungry for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three in a row, though two of those were on the road, and the other was at home to the unbeaten Chiefs.  They are a much better home team, going 2-1 with wins over the Seahawks and Raiders.  And they gave the Chiefs their toughest test of the season, actually leading by double-digits in the 4th quarter before losing 23-27.  They were driving with a chance to win in the closing seconds. 

Denver’s offense certainly has what it takes to move the ball and score points against this Rams’ defense. The Broncos rank 12th in the league in total offense at 393.4 yards per game.  They will be able to run the football on the Rams just like the Seahawks did last week, rushing for 190 yards.  The Rams are giving up 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Broncos are averaging 5.6 yards per carry as their running game has been the strength.  Look for them to try and control the clock with their running game and keep Jared Goff off the field. 

With the weather report, there’s no question the running game will be huge in this matchup.  On Sunday there is a 90% chance of snow with a high of 28 degrees.  That will help level the playing field here for the Broncos.  The Rams are a warm-weather team and are clearly not used to those kinds of conditions.  The Broncos are used to them, and that will be a huge advantage for them in this one. 

Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. excellent teams that are outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Broncos are simply a different animal at home, and they’ll be fired up for this one with the undefeated Rams coming to town.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 2-2-1 on the season.  They are 1.5 games behind the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals.  All of a sudden this is a much bigger game for the Steelers than it is for the Bengals.  And because of that, among many other reasons, I think the Steelers will win this game outright simply because they need it more. 

The Steelers simply own the Bengals.  They are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  And Big Ben loves playing in his home state of Ohio.  Big Ben is 25-4-1 in 30 career games in Ohio. 

Back in the summer, the Steelers were -4 against the Bengals in this game.  So from what we’ve seen through only five games, oddsmakers have made a 6.5-point adjustment off that number.  I think there’s a ton of value here with the Steelers this week as they are the better team in this matchup. 

The Bengals are getting respect because they are 4-1.  However, they could easily be 0-5 instead.  They got a late defensive touchdown against the Colts in Week 1 to seal that game.  The only game they played well from the start was their Thursday night home win over the Ravens, but playing on Thursday night at home is a huge advantage as those teams are 5-0 this season. 

The Bengals lost 21-31 on the road to the Panthers in Week 3.  They scored on a last-second play to beat the Falcons 37-36, which was a Falcons team that was extremely banged up.  And it’s worth noting the Steelers beat the Falcons 41-17 last week.  And then last week the Bengals erased a 17-0 deficit at home to the Dolphins to win 27-17 thanks to a pair of late defensive touchdowns. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - with a poor first half defense that is allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Steelers are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Steelers are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. 

This is a Bengals defense that is allowing 26.0 points and 394.8 yards per game this season.  Again, they’re very fortunate to be 4-1 with that defense.  The Steelers, who are averaging 28.6 points and 405 yards per game, will light them up this week.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5 

Both Philadelphia and New York have shown signs of life offensively in recent weeks.  I think this is a pretty low total at 43.5 tonight for an NFL game that features two offenses with plenty of playmakers.  Look for this game to sail OVER the total Thursday night. 

The Eagles now have three games with Carson Wentz at quarterback.  They have been moving the football just fine with Wentz and should continue to do so against the Giants this week.  They had 382 yards against the Colts, 432 against the Titans and 364 against the Vikings the last three weeks, respectively.  And they have topped 20 points in all three games. 

The Giants got off to a rough start offensively this season against two great defenses in Jacksonvilleand Dallas.  But they have been much sharper the last three weeks.  They scored 27 with 379 total yards against Houston in Week 3.  And last week they scored 31 with 432 total yards against Carolina. 

The biggest problem for the Giants has been their defense, which has given up at least 20 points in every game, including 33 each the last two weeks to the Saints and Panthers.  And it’s not like the Eagles have been great defensively as they have given up 23, 26, and 27 points in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Giants can’t run the ball, but that’s not a problem because the Eagles can’t stop the pass, giving up 277 yards per game.  The Eagles are good against the run, so the Giants won’t even test it that much.  This is a game that will be played mostly through the air, especially with the injuries the Eagles have at running back.  That will lead to more clock stoppages and ultimately more points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The Giants and Eagles have combined for 63, 51, 43, 51 and 65 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of 54.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points per game more than this 43.5-point total.  There’s clearly value with the OVER here tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Redskins/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7 

I believe the Washington Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 24-6 blowout win at Arizona and a dominant 31-17 home win over Green Bay.  Their only loss came 9-21 at home to Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting they outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. 

In fact, when you look at the numbers, the Redskins have been one of the best teams in the NFL to this point.  They are averaging 383 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 278 yards pre game and 4.9 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. 

What I love about this Redskins team is that they are excellent in the trenches on both side of the ball.  The run the ball and stop the run.  They are averaging 138 rushing yards per game behind a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson, who will be chomping at the bit to face his former team in the Saints, who cut him last year.  And they are giving up just 91 rushing yards per game, while also being dominant against the pass, allowing just 187 passing yards per game. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers on the road against the Falcons (in OT) and the Giants.  Everyone is beating the Giants, and the Falcons are decimated with injuries.  People are quick to forget that the Saints were upset by the Bucs 48-40 as 10-point favorites and should have lost to the Browns in a 21-18 win as 9.5-point favorites in their two home games. 

Now the Saints are being asked to lay a full touchdown here to the Redskins, who I believe to be one of the better teams in the NFL.  And this is a Redskins team that will be fresh and ready to go off their bye week.  That bye week came at a good time because they had some injuries along the offensive line, but now they are very healthy compared to most teams. 

Alex Smith should be able to pick apart this New Orleans defense that is giving up 390 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play, including 311 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt.  Alex Smith is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio and simply does not make mistakes.  He is also one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL as he wins everywhere he goes. 

New Orleans is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six Monday games. 

The Redskins are 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints.  They were underdogs in five of those games, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points in overtime, including a 31-34 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs last season.  They simply have the Saints’ number.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

20* Cowboys/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston -3 

The Houston Texans saved their season with a 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis last week.  They picked up their first win of the year, and now they get two home games back-to-back against Dallas and Buffalo that can get them right back in the playoff conversation.  They are going to be ‘all in’ here for this game against the Cowboys Sunday night. 

There’s no question in my mind that the Texans are better than their 1-3 record.  That’s why I was on them last week to beat the Colts, and I’m on them again this week to beat the Cowboys.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 32 yards per game this season.  Their offense is certainly not broken, as they are averaging 414 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  And Deshaun Watson finally looked real comfortable against the Colts last week.  And JJ Watt looks like his old dominant self again. 

The Cowboys certainly don’t have the firepower to match the Texans on offense.  Dallas is averaging just 16.7 points and 312 yards per game.  And that’s even after they had their best offensive output of the season against the Lions last week.  The Panthers, Giants and Seahawks all shut them down, and I expect the Texans to be able to do the same thing with Watt and company.  Stopping Ezekiel Elliott is the key to stopping Dallas, and the Texans are only giving up 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Dallas only averages 166 passing yards per game, so it won’t be able to take advantage of what has been the weakness of the Texans in their secondary. 

The Cowboys are 0-2 on the road this season.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and averaging 267.5 yards per game on the highway.  Houston has been dealt a tough schedule with three of its first four games on the road, so they will be happy to be playing a home game here Sunday night. 

This Dallas defense is certainly improved this season.  However, injuries are starting to take their toll.  The Cowboys are now without their most important defender in Sean Lee, who is the quarterback of their defense at linebacker.  Last year, opponents averaged 6.0 yards per play when Lee was off the field, and 4.5 yards per play when he was on it.  He makes sure everyone is in the right place at all times, while also making a ton of plays himself.  The loss of Lee cannot be overstated. 

Bill O’Brien is 16-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of Houston.  Jason Garrett is 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% as the coach of Dallas.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE DAY on Buffalo Bills +5.5 

The Tennessee Titans are way overvalued after their 3-1 start to the season.  All three of hitter wins came by exactly 3 points, and now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 5.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.  That’s simply too much, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Titans and ‘buy low’ on the Bills. 

The Titans have been outgained by an average of 49 yards per game this season.  Their offense has been putrid in averaging 18.7 points, 312 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  And their defense is giving up 361 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  This team isn’t nearly as good as their 3-1 record would suggest. 

And I think the Titans are primed for a letdown here.  They are coming off a shocking upset of the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, which followed up their 9-6 win over the Jaguars the week before.  Coming off those two wins, there’s no way they get up for the Buffalo Bills this week.  And teams who are on the road following a win over the defending Super Bowl champ are 16-38 ATS since 1992. 

The Bills come in undervalued off their shutout loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  They were in for a letdown following their 27-6 road win over Minnesota in Week 3, which showed what they are capable of.  And the Bills have played three of their first four games on the road this season.  They were competitive in their only home game in a 20-31 loss to the Chargers, and keep in mind that was Josh Allen’s first start at quarterback.  Now he has three games under his belt and is a lot more comfortable. 

Buffalo does have a capable defense that is giving up 358 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, numbers that are better than what Tennessee has given up.  And the Bills have faced some very good offenses in the Ravens, Chargers, Vikings and Packers thus far.  Tennessee is by far the weakest offense they have faced yet, and I look for them to shut the Titans down here. 

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  It is losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing against a losing team are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bills Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +1.5 

The Detroit Lions are desperate for a win Sunday to save their season.  They have opened 1-3 with two road losses to San Francisco and Dallas by a combined 5 points.  That’s how close they are to being 3-1.  I think they are undervalued right now because of their record because they are clearly a better team than that. 

They show that with their dominant 26-10 home win over the New England Patriots in Week 3.  Their backs were against the wall after an 0-2 start and they responded.  I think this is a similar situation here.  Look for the Lions to put their best foot forward this week against a division rival in the Green Bay Packers. 

Green Bay is overvalued off its 2-1-1 start.  Well, the Packers have played three of their first four games at home. And they are fortunate that they aren’t 1-3 as well.  They needed to overcome a 20-3 deficit to beat the Bears 24-23 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They tied the Vikings 29-29 at home in Week 2 with the Vikings missing some easy field goals.  And their 22-0 win over the Bills last week is nothing to be proud of. 

Green Bay failed miserably in its only road game this season.  The Packers went into Washington as 2.5-point favorites and came away with a 17-31 loss.  They are once again short road favorites here when they shouldn’t be.  Aaron Rodgers is still hobbled, and he could be without two of his top receivers in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  The defense is weak once again this season, and the Packers can’t be favored here. 

The Lions have actually had the Packers’ number in recent meetings.  They are 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last night meetings with three of their losses coming by a touchdown or less.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC opponents.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC foes.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Green Bay) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Lions Sunday.

20* Colts/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52 

I’m taking the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.  I’m shocked it’s this high given the injuries to both teams, plus the fact that both offenses just really aren’t playing well at all this season. 

Andrew Luck’s favorite target in T.Y. Hilton is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  Tight end Jack Doyle is also out with a hip injury.  The Colts were missing their two starting tackles last week and could be without them again.  I just don’t know how the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and score points here. 

I know Julian Edelman returns for the Patriots this week from a four-game suspension.  However, they could be without Rob Gronkowski, who left last week with an ankle injury and is highly questionable.  Either way this is a Patriots offense that just isn’t as explosive as in year’s past as they’ll have to rely more on defense this season to win games. 

New England is only averaging 23.7 points and 337.2 yards per game this season.  The defense is giving up just 21.0 points per game, and came through with their best effort of the season last week in holding the Dolphins to just 7 points and 172 total yards.  Expect more of the same here from this defense against the banged-up Colts. 

Indianapolis has been fine offensively in its two domed home games, but outside on grass has been another story.  The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9 in Week 2 for just 30 combined points, and they lost to the Eagles 16-20 in Week 3 for just 36 combined points.  Well, they managed just 281 total yards against the Redskins, and just 209 total yards against the Eagles.  Give their defense credit for giving up just 14.5 points per game in their two road games as this is clearly an improved unit this season. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 49.5 or more in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 38-12 (76%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Colts last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Colts last nine games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Patriots last seven games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver +5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are clearly the flavor of the week right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with Patrick Mahomes setting all kinds of records through three weeks.  While he and the Chiefs have been impressive, it’s clearly time to ‘sell high’ on them. 

The Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs at the Chargers in Week 1.  They won that game by 10 against a Chargers defense that was missing two of their best players.  Then they were 4-point road dogs to the Steelers in Week 2 and won 42-37 against a Steelers defense that is clearly terrible without Ryan Shazier, and they were missing Joe Haden.  Then they won 38-27 as 6-point home favorites over the 49ers last week.  The 49ers also have a soft defense, and Jimmy G got hurt when they were making their comeback. 

So now the Chiefs are being asked to go on the road and lay 5 points to a good Denver Broncos team.  And they will be playing in altitude, which makes this one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL for the Broncos.  They won their first two home games over the Seahawks and Raiders this season before losing on the road to the Ravens last week, which isn’t a bad loss. 

There’s no question the Broncos have one of the most improved offenses in the league behind Case Keenum and the emergence of RB Philip Lindsay.  Denver is putting up 382.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play despite playing two quality defenses in Seattle and Baltimore.  They are tied for 11th in total offense this season. 

Well, Mahomes has masked a Kansas City offense that has been atrocious this year.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank dead last in total defense at 474 yards per game.  They are also 31st in scoring defense at 30.7 points per game and 31st in yards per play (6.7) allowed.  No question Keenum and company are going to be able to take advantage. 

But the biggest reason I like the Broncos this week is because they have the defense it takes to stop the league’s top offenses.  They have a tremendous pass rush with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, who will make life miserable on Mahomes.  And they have one of the top secondaries in the NFL.  I know the numbers don’t show it up to this point, but I’m believing it’s more of an aberration.  This has been a top 5 defense, especially against the pass, for the better part of the last five years. 

Denver also wants revenge from five straight loses to the Chiefs in this series.  But the last two Kansas City wins in Denver have come by 3 points each.  And I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Broncos +5 at home.  They can still lose the game and get the cover with this inflated line, though I’m expecting them to win outright.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -6.5 

Had the Patriots not lost to the Lions last week, this line would have been closer to Patriots -10.  Now we are getting the Patriots under a touchdown at -6.5.  I think we are getting a ton of line value here in a spot that is a supreme one for the home team. 

The Patriots will obviously be in a sour mood off their lost to the Lions.  We’ll get a great effort from them here, especially since this game has a ton riding on it in the AFC East race with Miami already off to a 3-0 start.  I love backing the Patriots off a loss, and I think they’ll perform much better at home here off back-to-back road losses. 

The Dolphins are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Yes, they’re 3-0, but they are very fortunate to have that record.  They were outgained by 105 yards in their win over the Jets.  They only outgained the Titans by 6 yards and got help with Marcus Mariota getting injured.  And they were outgained by 61 yards by the Raiders last week.  So, they have been outgained by 150 yards on the season, or an average of 50 yards per game.  And their three wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Titans, Raiders and Jets. 

The Patriots had a lot of injuries heading into that Detroit games.  I’m expecting they could get back Patrick Chung, Trey Flowers, Eric Rowe and Rex Burkhead.  Plus, with their deficiencies at receiver thus far, don’t be surprised if Josh Gordon makes his New England debut here at home and has a huge game. 

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Patriots are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins.  They have won by 18, 7, 29, 28, 10 and 28 points in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins, or by an average of 20 points per game.  They have won nine straight home meetings with Miami with eight of those wins coming by 7 points or more. 

The Dolphins suffered some key injuries on defense last week that will hurt them against the Patriots this week.  They lost arguably their best run stopper and one of their top pass rushers in DE William Hayes to a torn ACL.  They also lost fellow DE Andre Branch.  S Reshad Jones is questionable with a shoulder injury here as well.  Look for the Patriots to get their running game going this week, and for Tom Brady to get right against a soft Miami defense. 

New England is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  New England is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games.  The Dolphins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet the Patriots Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 

Carson Wantz had a successful debut against the Colts last week.  He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards with a touchdown and an interception while leading the Eagles to a 20-16 victory.  And that was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed last the Eagles outgained the Colts by 170 yards. 

Now I expect Wentz to be even sharper in his second game back against the Titans.  I actually think Wentz is at least a 4-point upgrade over Nick Foles.  It’s a miracle the Eagles won a Super Bowl with Foles as their QB because he did not play well other than the Super Bowl.  This team simply won with a great defense, which they still have after limiting the Colts to just 209 total yards last week.  And now their offense will get back to being that high-octane unit it was with Wentz under center last year. 

Tennessee is the single-most fraudulent team in the NFL right now.  They’re 2-1, but they should clearly be 0-3.  They lost 20-27 at Miami in their opener.  Then they beat Houston 20-17 at home in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 154 yards.  And they upset the Jaguars 9-6 last week.  That win over the Jags is earning them too much credit from oddsmakers.  It was a clear letdown spot for Jacksonville off its win over New England the previous week. 

The Titans simply cannot keep winning with how poor their offense has been playing.  They rank 29th in total offense at 284.0 yards per game.  They are also 27th at 4.7 yards per play.  Marcus Mariota was forced into action last week despite a sore elbow because Blaine Gabbert was knocked out with a concussion.  Mariota has looked terrible thus far this season, and he doesn’t have any weapons, especially with his favorite target in TE Delanie Walker out with a season-ending injury. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles get some key players back this week on offense.  Both RB Jay Ajayi and RB Darren Sproles are expected to return this week after sitting out the Colts game.  Plus, WR Alshon Jeffery may return this week after missing the first three games of the season with a shoulder injury.  That would be a big boost to Wentz and the offense. 

The Titans are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU win, and 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games off an ATS win.  The Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans will get exposed this week for the frauds that they are by one of the best teams in the NFL in Philadelphia.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +3 

The Houston Texans have been a big disappointment with their 0-3 start.  So I think they are undervalued right now because they have not lived up to expectations.  I expect a huge effort from them Sunday in Indianapolis as they try to get in the win column and save their season. 

The best part about the Texans is there’s no doubt they are better than their 0-3 record would suggest.  They lost in Week 1 at New England but were only outgained by 64 yards.  They outgained the Titans by 154 yards and should have won that game on the road.  And they outgained the Giants by 48 yards at home last week, yet lost. 

There’s no question the Texans still have a great defense.  And their offense hasn’t gotten the points that they should have by now with how well their moving the football.  Indeed, the Texans rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 396.3 yards per game, but just 22nd in scoring offense at 19.7 points per game.  At some point, this offense is going to start turning that yardage into points, and I’m guessing it’s going to be this week. 

I strongly believe the Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They beat the Redskins in Week 2 for their only win, but they were outgained by 53 yards.  They were outgained by 170 yards by the Eagles last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score.  While the Colts may be improved defensively, this is still a bottom half of the league unit. 

The problem with the Colts right now actually is their offense.  They rank 28th in the league in total offense at 290.0 yards per game.  Andrew Luck doesn’t quite look right, and the offense is missing a lot of players due to injury.  In fact, the Colts as a team have the longest injury report in the entire NFL if you take a look at it.  They have been playing without important players like TE Jack Doyle, T Antony Castonzo and RB Marlon Mack.  They have a handful of important defensively players who are either listed as questionable or out this week. 

Plays on road teams (Houston) - who are averaging at least 265 passing yards per game against a poor pass defense that allows 230-265 YPG, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

Bill O’Brien is 15-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow 64% or more completions as the coach of Houston.  Opposing QB’s are completing 71.2% of their passes against the Colts this season.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Texans Sunday. 

20* Vikings/Rams NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Minnesota +7 

Had the Vikings not lost to the Bills last week, this line would have been in the -3.5 to -4 range in favor of the Los Angeles Rams.  But since they lost, we are getting at least a field goal worth of value here.  I simply believe that was a flat spot for the Vikings and actually had the Bills +17 as a premium play Sunday. 

The Vikings were coming off a huge game against their biggest rivals in the Packers, in which they tied in Green Bay.  And they had another massive game on deck Thursday on a short week here against the Rams.  So it was easy to see the Vikings coming out flat.  I think now they’ll be fired up and be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week, so we should get the best version of the Vikings, which is still one of the best teams in the NFL. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, and everyone seems to be already crowning them Super Bowl champs.  They have won their first three games by double-digits.  However, those three wins came against teams who are now a combined 1-8 in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers.  The Vikings will be by far the best team they have faced yet. 

We saw what happened last year when the high-octane Rams’ offense went up against the best defense in the NFL.  The Vikings won that game 24-7 at home as 2-point favorites.  They held the Rams to just 254 total yards and outgained them by nearly 200 yards in the win. 

I think this Vikings offense will get going again here against a Rams defense that is banged up right now.  Two of their key acquisitions this offseason were corners Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.  Well, both Talib and Peters got injured in their 35-23 win over the Chargers last week.  Talib is for sure out, while Peters is very questionable and unlikely to play. 

Kirk Cousins will be able to dice up this undermanned Los Angeles secondary.  Cousins has certainly lived up to the hype of the big contract thus far.  He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 965 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions through three games this year. 

Mike Zimmer is 9-2 ATS vs. teams who average at least 375 yards per game on offense as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 20-9 ATS as a dog as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 45-24 ATS in all games as the coach of the Vikings.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  I trust Zimmer to have his team ready to put forth a big effort against the Rams in this one.  Bet the Vikings Thursday. 

15* Steelers/Bucs ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 53.5 

The Tampa Bay Bucs have been the surprise of the NFL through two weeks.  Not for their defense, but for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense.  They are 2-0 behind that offense that scored 48 points against a good Saints defense in Week 1 and followed it up with 27 points against a great Eagles defense in Week 2. 

The Bucs haven’t been able to run the football, so they’ve relied solely on Fitzpatrick, which is great for OVER bettors.  He threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1.  Then he threw for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns with an interception against the Eagles in Week 2.  The Bucs are loaded with weapons at receiver in DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin.  It’s nice to see this offense living up to their potential. 

The Bucs had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season.  It appears that hasn’t changed this year, either.  They are giving up 30.5 points and 443.5 yards per game, including 6.8 yards per play thus far.  The Steelers should be able to take advantage and put up a big number here. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problem moving the football on offense this season.  The Steelers are averaging 29.0 points and 473.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chiefs and Browns.  But their defense has been atrocious since losing Ryan Shazier to a season-ending injury last year.  And it has carried over into 2018 as the Steelers are giving up 31.5 points and 388 yards per game this year. 

Star CB Joe Haden missed last week for the Steelers and could be out again this week.  The Bucs are playing without LB Kendell Beckwith and CB Vernon Hargreaves, and they could be without both CB Brent Grimes and DT Vita Vea again this week. 

Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first month of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games on grass.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bucs last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Pats/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday night inside the dome at Ford Field between the Patriots and Lions.  This game should see touchdowns in bunches and should easily sail OVER this 51.5-point total.  I rarely take overs this high, but this is a new NFL and this one I believe to be worth it. 

The Lions clearly have a woeful defense again this season.  They are giving up 39 points per game and 6.3 yards per play through two games against the Jets and 49ers.  Offensively, the Lions have no running game again this season, putting everything on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders.  That’s good for OVER bettors.  They are averaging 314 passing yards per game through two games. 

New England has played two tough defenses already to start the season in the Texans and Jaguars.  That’s why the Patriots are only averaging 23.5 points per game thus far.  But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and their offense will get right here. 

The problem for the Patriots dating back to the Super Bowl is that their defense just isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past.  They gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  Then they gave up 20 to a banged-up Texans offense in Week 1 before allowing a whopping 31 points and 481 yards to a bad Jacksonville offense in Week 2.  Blake Bortles threw for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on them! 

Detroit is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 home games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of the Patriots.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -1 

Seattle is a team I’ve faded with success each of the first two weeks of the season because I wasn’t very high on them coming into the year.  And I won with the Broncos -2.5 in Week 1 and the Bears -3 in Week 2 going against them.  I thought they were overvalued coming into the year, and I was right.  But I had to sweat out both of those games as they lost by 3 at Denver and by 7 at Chicago, only after a pick-six by the Bears that was the difference. 

Now, after an 0-2 start, I believe the Seahawks to be undervalued this week at home against the Cowboys.  The look-ahead line for this game was Seattle -3 on Monday morning prior to the Bears’ game, and now they are only -1 after the Bears’ game.  There’s some value here because of it.  Their defense played better than I expected last week as they held the Bears to just 271 total yards.  And their offense is moving the ball fine once they get Russell Wilson in up-tempo situations, which I look for them to do more of this week. 

But the key here is that Seattle played its first two games of the season on the road.  Now the Seahawks return home, where the 12th man is the real deal and they are one of the toughest teams in the NFL to beat at home.  Plus, they’ll be highly motivated here for a win with essentially their season on the line.  Look for a big effort from the Seahawks this week. 

The Cowboys come in overvalued here off their 20-13 win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football last week.  But the Giants are clearly a bad team this year.  And this Dallas offense did little after its opening TD drive on a long pass play to Tavon Austin on broken coverage.  Dallas didn’t score until the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Panthers in an 8-16 loss.  It’s a Dallas offense that is only averaging 14 points and 265 total yards per game thus far. 

Pete Carroll is 10-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 43-26 ATS in all home games as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +3 

This is a clear ‘buy low’ opportunity on the New Orleans Saints Sunday as field goal underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons.  There were big expectations for the Saints coming into the season as many felt they were Super Bowl contenders.  And they were priced like it in their first two home games. 

But the Saints fell flat on their faces in Week 1, losing 40-48 to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 10-point favorites.  Then they failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites and were really fortunate to win 21-18 over the Cleveland Browns.  So they basically go from being double-digit favorites two straight weeks to now 3-point underdogs, which is a 13-point adjustment. 

I still think the Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and that rough start will wake them up moving forward.  And clearly the Bucs are better than they were getting credit for coming into the season because they followed up their win over the Saints with a dominant 27-21 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 2.  That was a 20-point game before the Eagles made it interesting in the 4th quarter.  And the Browns are better than expected too as they tied the Steelers in OT and gave the Saints all they wanted. 

The Falcons couldn’t beat an undermanned Eagles team in Week 1, losing 12-18 despite being favored on the road.  Then they beat the Panthers 31-24 last week, but it’s worth noting the Panthers were missing several key players along the offensive line, at LB and at TE.  And the Panthers had the ball with a chance to tie in the closing seconds still. 

The Saints are almost fully healthy and will be a tough challenge for the Falcons this week.  I believe the Saints are the better team right now, especially when you consider the significant injuries to the Falcons.  Atlanta is missing two of its best defensive players in S Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones to season-ending injuries.  The Falcons are also without star RB Devonta Freeman with a knee injury.  I don’t think the Falcons have what it takes to beat the Saints without those three guys, let alone win by margin and cover this 3-point spread. 

Quietly, the Saints have been a better bet on the road than at home over the last few seasons.  Indeed, the Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  The Falcons are just 5-24 ATS in their last 29 home games off a home win.  In fact, they are losing 19.7 to 24.6 in this spot, or by nearly 5 points per game.  They haven’t been able to follow up success with more success at home.  Roll with the Saints Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +3.5 

I love this situation for the Oakland Raiders.  We are getting a motivated 0-2 team up against an fat and happy 2-0 team in the Miami Dolphins.  I’ll back the more motivated team almost every time, especially when I feel the 0-2 team is actually the better squad, which is the case here. 

Oakland had a 13-10 lead over the L.A. Rams before imploding with three second-half turnovers in Week 1.  Oakland had a 12-0 lead over the Broncos before missing an extra points and letting Denver come back in the second half, losing 20-19 on a last-second field goal with the extra point being the difference. 

Well, Denver and the LA Rams have two of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Raiders actually had great success offensively against them.  They had 395 total yards against the Rams and 373 total yards against the Broncos.  They are averaging 384.0 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense.  Derek Carr went 29-of-32 passing for 288 yards and a score against that vaunted Denver pass D last week. 

Not only do I believe the Dolphins are the worst 2-0 team in the NFL right now, they are still among the worst NFL teams in general this season.  They are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as 3.5-point home favorites here against the Raiders.  And they are reading the press clippings and feeling good about themselves.  I think they will fall flat on their faces this week. 

The two wins have come against the Titans and Jets, also two of the worst teams in the NFL.  They survived a seven-hour marathon at home against the Titans in Week 1, and an injury to Marcus Mariota aided their win.  Then last week they were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets, but found a way to win 20-12.  They managed just 257 total yards against the Jets while giving up 362, getting outgained by 105 total yards.  They have simply been fortunate in those two games by forcing a combined six turnovers.  It’s a Miami offense that is averaging just 299.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season. 

Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Miami is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.  John Gruden is 20-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. 

Plays on road teams (Oakland) - off a loss to a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1993.  We are buying low on Oakland and selling high on Miami this week.  Bet the Raiders Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +17.5 

The Buffalo Bills couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start, which featured a 3-47 loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a 20-31 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.  That’s why this spread has been inflated as oddsmakers have no choice but to make it this high in hopes of getting even action on both sides.  The public will still back the Vikings at this massive price, but the sharp money will be on the Bills this week. 

Buffalo at least looked like a competent offense against the Chargers last week with rookie Josh Allen at quarterback.  Allen went 18-of-33 passing for 245 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, while also rushing for 32 yards on eight carries in the loss.  The Bills were only outgained by 56 yards in that game and were more competitive than the final score would suggest. 

This is the ultimate sandwich game for the Vikings this week.  They are coming off a draining 29-29 tie against the Green Bay Packers in which they probably should have lost in regulation, but then they should have won in OT.  Their kicker let them down and they signed Dan Bailey this week.  But now they can’t help but look ahead to a Thursday night showdown with the Los Angeles Rams on the road next week.  They won’t be giving the Bills their full attention, and as a result it will make it very difficult to cover this 17.5-point spread. 

Buffalo is 53-29 ATS in its last 82 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The price is right to back the Bills this week as 17.5-point underdogs to the Vikings.  You rarely see numbers this big in the NFL.  And the spot couldn’t be worse for the Vikings this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* Jets/Browns AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3 

The Cleveland Browns have held their own against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They tied the Steelers in overtime in Week 1, and they should have beaten the Saints in Week 2 in an 18-21 loss.  Kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two field goals and two extra points in that defeat last week, which was the difference. 

I’ve been most impressed with what the Browns have been able to do defensively.  Holding both the Steelers and the Saints to 21 points each is no small feat.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and now they will be up against the worst offense they’ve faced yet in the New York Jets this week. 

They Jets opened their season with a misleading 48-17 win over the Lions.  But that was a misleading result.  For starters, their defensive players were tipped off to all of Matthew Stafford’s signals, which was a huge advantage.  They forced five turnovers as a result and got defensive and special teams touchdowns in the win.  The Jets came back last week and laid an egg 12-20 at home to the Dolphins. 

So, the Jets have played two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Lions and Dolphins, while the Browns have played two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Saints.  That preparation against that level of competition will make this seem like a much easier game for the Browns here.  And they are starved for a win and it will be a rowdy atmosphere Thursday night in Cleveland as the fans pack the stands in hopes of ending this losing streak.

Schedule makers have done the Jets no favors here.  They played on Monday Night Football in Week 1.  And now have to play on Thursday in Week 3.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NFL.  Don't be surprised if they are gassed by the second half of this one.

These teams played last year with the Jets winning 17-14 in Cleveland.  That also puts the Browns in revenge mode.  Plus, the Browns dominated that game, outgaining the Jets 419 to 212, or by 207 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-1.  Another lopsided box score this week will actually lead to a Browns’ victory because they are taking care of the football and getting turnovers this year.  They have a +6 turnover differential through two games. 

Todd Bowles is 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game as the coach of the Jets.  New York is losing in this spot by 12.7 points per game.  This is a 100% never lost system that we’ll back here tonight.  Bet the Browns Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3 

I expect the Chicago Bears to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went just 5-11 last year, but Mitchell Trubisky had nobody to throw to, and the coaching staff didn’t have a clue.  Yet, they managed to beat three of the better teams in the NFL in the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens, and they took both the Falcons and the Vikings down to the wire early in the season. 

The Bears were competitive due to a defense that ranked 9th in scoring and 10th in total defense last year.  That defense will be very good again, especially with the addition of former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack via trade with the Raiders.  They gave up a lot to get him, but that won’t hurt them this season, only in the future. 

Matt Nagy is the new head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs under Andy Reid, and he was the perfect hire for the Bears this offseason to inject some new life into the offense.  Nagy will get the most out of Trubisky, who now has ample weapons to lead the offense.  No team improved their playmakers more this offseason than Chicago. 

The Bears already have a pair of talented backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.  But they added former Jacksonville No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson, who is primed for a bounce-back season after playing just one game in Jacksonville last year before getting injured.  New slot receiver Taylor Gabriel has 4.3-40 speed and will be missed in Atlanta.  Trey Burton was stuck behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia at tight end, but now he’ll be playing the role Travis Kelce played in Nagy’s offensive in KC.  They used their second-round pick on WR Anthony Miller out of Memphis as well. 

The Bears certainly looked the part as the most improved team in the NFL when they jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Green Bay at Lambeau Field last week.  But they took the foot off the gas late and allowed Aaron Rodgers and company to come back and win 21-20, though the Bears easily covered as 7.5-point dogs and we had them.  Kyle Fuller dropped an easy INT on the Packers’ final drive that would have sealed the win.  Look for the Bears to come back pissed off this week and redeem themselves on Monday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. 

This is a Seahawks team I’m way down on this season for several reasons.  I won on the Broncos -2.5 last week against them in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by 164 total yards and racked up 470 total yards on Seattle’s defense.  But three Case Keenum interceptions kept Seattle in it. 

The Seahawks are a team in transition.  They ‘Legion of Boom’ is no longer.  Richard Sherman is gone to the 49ers, and Kam Chancellor is out for the season.  Earl Thomas just returned from his holdout last week, but he’s about all they got in the secondary.  CB Byron Maxwell is on the IR with a hip injury.  Not to mention, DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett are both gone.  This defense doesn’t look anything like the dominant unit it was a few years ago, and that was evident by giving up 470 yards to the Broncos last week. 

The same problem remains for Seattle’s offense.  They simply cannot run the football.  Russell Wilson had a big season last year, but only because he had to.  Wilson actually led the team in rushing, and by a wide margin.  No Seattle running back had more than 240 yards last year.  The offensive line is still a mess, and the options are limited at receiver.  They lost both Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson, who combined for 16 TD receptions last year.  And now Doug Baldwin, who caught 75 balls for 991 yards and 8 TD last year, suffered a knee injury against the Broncos and has been ruled out this week. 

That doesn’t even cover all the injuries for the Seahawks right now.  MLB Bobby Wagner is questionable with a groin injury, and OLB K.J. Wright is doubtful with a knee injury.  Wagner led the team in tacklers with 133 last year while Wright was second with 108.  Starting G D.J. Fluker is questionable, and starting TE Ed Dickson is out with a groin injury.  A guy I’ve never heard of in TE Will Dissly actually led the team in receiving last week against the Broncos. 

Teams who are playing back-to-back road games to open the season in Week 2 are 0-12 SU over the past five seasons.  Pete Carroll is 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Giants/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3 

The New York Giants are undervalued off their disastrous 3-13 season last year.  They were hit as hard by injuries as any team in the league last year.  Ben McAdoo was not fit for the job.  But this is a team that made the playoffs in 2016, so there is still a lot of talent on this squad.  And they got even better in the offseason. 

The Giants have improved most in the trenches.  They nabbed four new starters along the offensive line, including LT Nate Solder from the Patriots.  They will have a running game now with that improved O-Line and the addition of first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley, who is sure to be a star in the NFL for years to come.  Odell Beckham Jr. got his big contract, and now he’s back healthy this season.  Eli Manning has everything he needs to succeed. 

The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2016.  But injuries decimated this unit last last year and poor play by the offense had them gassed.  This stop unit should come back energized and become one of the better defenses in the NFL in 2018.  I love the addition of LB Alec Ogletree, who will become the QB of the defense after serving the same role with the Rams previously. 

The Giants actually played well against the Jaguars in Week 1 and should have won.  They gained 324 yards on offense against arguably the best D in the NFL.  Their defense only gave up 305 total yards and actually held the Jaguars’ offense to just 13 points because one of their touchdowns was a pick-six.  The Giants should finally click offensively this week against a Dallas D that isn’t nearly as good as Jacksonville. 

I still think the Cowboys have a decent D, but they are battling injuries right now.  They have three DE’s who are hurt in Demarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, David Irving (suspension) and Randy Gregory.  Both Irving and Gregory are out, while Lawrence and Crawford are expected to play.  Also out is DT Datone Jones and FS Xavier Woods. 

The real problem for the Cowboys is on offense.  Dak Prescott regressed big-time last year, and now this year he has no weapons with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone.  And the offensive line is missing starting center Travis Frederick right now.  That offense was atrocious against Carolina last week.  The Cowboys trailed 16-0 and finally got on the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, but it was too little, too late.  They managed just 232 total yards against the Panthers. 

Jason Garrett is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas has been terrible in the home favorite role over the years.  I think the Giants are the better of these two teams and they prove it on the field Sunday night.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Texans/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -2.5 

There is a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into 2018.  For starters, Deshaun Watson is fully healthy now.  He was on pace for 43 touchdowns as a rookie before suffering a season-ending knee injury.  Watson led an offense that averaged 39 points per game from Week 3 to Week 8 in a five-game span.  It’s scary how good this offense was when he was healthy, and when WR Will Fuller was on the field. 

Fuller had 7 touchdown receptions on just 28 grabs last year.  Well, Fuller missed Week 1’s 20-27 loss to the Patriots.  But Fuller is expected back this week, giving Watson his full arsenal of weapons against the Titans this week.  And Watson had a concussion that he has been cleared from this week. 

Defensively, the Texans get their two best players back healthy as well.  Both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus return this season.  Watt is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  He, Jadeveon Clowney and Mercilus will wreak havoc on opposing offenses this season.  Both LB’s Benardick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are coming off productive seasons, and this is one of the best front seven’s defensively in the NFL. 

I’m way down on the Tennessee Titans this season.  They were the worst team to make the playoffs last year and I just don’t trust them at all.  They are due for some big-time regression.  Marcus Mariota just isn’t progressing as he was supposed to, and he has limited weapons on offense.  The defense has plenty of holes as well. 

Tennessee lost 20-27 in Miami last week.  It was a strange game because it was delayed by lightning, and actually took seven hours to complete.  And by the 4th quarter, both teams looked so gas because they were out on the field for most of the day in the scorching heat.  I question what the Titans have left in the tank this week. 

The Titans came away with some serious injuries.  Mariota was knocked out of the game with an elbow injury, and while he is likely to play this week, he is highly questionable and won’t be 100%.  He lost his security blanket in TE Delanie Walker to a season-ending ankle injury.  Top WR Corey Davis is battling a hamstring injury.  Starting LB Derrick Morgan (knee) is questionable, starting SS Johnathan Cyprien (knee) is out for the season, and two offensive tackles in Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are out this week.  Fellow offensive tackler Dennis Kelly is questionable.   

It’s a laundry list of injuries for the Titans right now.  The key injuries are those to Walker and the offensive tackles.  Walker had caught at least 60 passes every year for the Titans since signing with them in 2013.  And Watt, Clowney and company should be all over Mariota since the Titans are likely going with a pair of backup tackles this week. 

Bill O’Brien is 17-8 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Houston.  The Texans are winning in this spot by 7.6 points per game on average.  The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 2.  The Titans are 15-40-4 ATS in their last 59 vs. AFC opponents.  Tennessee is 8-26-3 ATS in its last 37 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Texans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -9 

I think the Saints simply took the Bucs too lightly in Week 1.  I was actually on the Bucs last week because I thought they came into the season undervalued.  And it was a good move as the Bucs upset the Saints 48-40.  I certainly don’t believe the Saints are this bad defensively because they were vastly improved last year.  And their task gets much easier against the Browns this week. 

I think that loss to the Bucs will serve as a wake-up call for the Saints.  They won’t be taking the Browns lightly this week as they’ll be putting their best foot forward.  Look for them to roll at home behind an offense that racked up 475 total yards and 40 points against the Bucs.  I’m certainly not ready to write off their defense because they actually added more talent in the offseason. 

Now the Saints are up against a weak Browns’ offense that just isn’t very explosive.  The Browns trailed the Steelers 21-7 midway through the fourth quarter last week before tacking on two late touchdowns and forcing overtime.  But the Browns deserves to lose that game.  They gave up 472 total yards and managed just 322 themselves, getting outgained by 150 yards.  They were +5 in turnovers and still couldn’t win!  Drew Brees and the Saints won’t be giving away any gifts this week. 

I certainly believe the Browns have an improved defense this year with some playmakers, but those 472 yards they gave up to the Steelers without Le’Veon Bell is concerning.  And Cleveland’s offense doesn’t have the potential to keep up with the Saints in a shootout, which this is expected to be with a total set of 49.5 points.  The Saints will get their points because they always do at home. 

The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC opponents.  Cleveland is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.  I think last week’s results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  New Orleans should have no problem winning by double-digits.  Take the Saints Sunday. 

20* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore +1 

The Baltimore Ravens are a legit playoff contender.  It’s a team I was high on coming into the season due to several things that happened this offseason.  For starters, Joe Flacco is more motivated than he’s ever been after the Ravens traded up to draft Lamar Jackson in the first round.  And he finally has some weapons to work with on offense. 

The Ravens added Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown at receiver.  Fittingly, all three receivers caught touchdown passes from Flacco in a 47-3 beat down of the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.  And the defense limited the Bills to just 153 total yards as the Ravens outgained them by 216 yards in the game.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

The Ravens went 5-0 in the preseason and now are 1-0 in the regular season.  They have outscored their six opponents by a total of 99 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  Their defense has held their six opponents to just an average of 12.5 points per game.  This is a deep, talented defense that will give Andy Dalton and company fits this week. 

The Bengals were fortunate to win 34-23 at Indianapolis in Week 1.  They were outgained by 50 total yards and got an 83-yard fumble recovery for a TD with 24 seconds left as the Colts were driving deep in the red zone to win the game.  And the Colts aren’t a very good team. 

The Bengals were one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last year.  Things don’t look a whole lot better for them in 2018.  They managed just 330 total yards against what was an awful Colts’ defense last year, and one that isn’t much better this year.  And Andrew Luck threw for 319 yards as the Colts managed 380 total yards against what is just an average Bengals defense. 

Cincinnati has some big injury concerns coming into this one.  Starters that are questionable to play include DE Carlos Dunlap (calf), LG Clint Boling (foot), CB Darqueze Dennard (neck) and MLB Preston Brown (ankle).  Not to mention, the Bengals are already playing without LB Vontaze Burfict due to a four-game suspension. 

But what I really like about this game is the situation.  Baltimore simply needed a win in Week 17 last year to make the playoffs.  Instead, the Bengals upset them 31-27 in Baltimore as 8-point underdogs.  The Bengals scored on a 49-yard TD Pass with just 44 seconds left to stun the Ravens.  You can bet Baltimore has been thinking about that game all offseason.  They have had this game circled, and they will get their revenge Thursday night in Cincinnati. 

Baltimore won 20-0 in Cincinnati last year.  The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 40 points or more in their previous game.  Baltimore is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. AFC North opponents.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Ravens Thursday. 

20* Jets/Lions ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Detroit Lions have been nothing but mediocre for decades.  They have not won a playoff game in 26 seasons.  They are kind of starting over this year with a new head coach in Matt Patricia.  I don’t expect them to come out Week 1 hitting on all cylinders with new systems and new personnel in place.  They certainly shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone in this league, not even the Jets. 

The problem for the Lions is always defense and the lack of a running game.  They are trying to change that this year, but it won’t happen overnight.  The Lions ranked 27th in total defense last year and 32nd in rushing offense, averaging just 76.3 yards per game.  They’re expecting Patricia to magically improve the defense, and for LeGarrette Blount and company to improve the running game. 

I like the chemistry the Jets have with Todd Bowles.  He enters his 4th season with the franchise and is 20-28 overall, but has been trying to upgrade the talent since he got here.  That’s not a bad record for the shortage of talent that he’s had to work with.  They are starting to turn the corner in that department. 

The Jets used their top pick on Sam Darnold, and he’s expected to start Week 1.  The future of the offense is bright now that they finally found their QB.  Jermaine Kerse (65 receptions, 810 yards, 5 TD last year) and Robby Anderson (63, 941, 7 TD) provide an underrated receiver duo, and Terrelle Pryor only adds to it.  Isaiah Crowell was signed this offseason to be the workhorse after rushing for 853 yards in Cleveland last year.  The offensive line should be improved with the addition of center Spencer Long from the Redskins. 

New York is loaded with playmakers defensively.  Leonard Williams had the third-most QB hits (25) in the AFC last season.  Steve McLendon is a solid run-stuffing nose tackle.  The Jets replaced Demario Davis with a younger version of him in LB Avery Williamson, who had 92 tackles and 3 sacks with the Titans last year.  Darron Lee improved greatly in his second season and will take an even bigger step this year.  Second-year safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye are promising.  The Jets signed former Rams No. 1 corner Tremaine Johnson to a five-year, $72 million deal.  Morris Claiborne is a solid No. 2 corner opposite Johnson. 

The fact of the matter is that there’s not much difference between the Lions and Jets talent-wise, so this spread should not be a touchdown.  The Lions admittedly have the better offense, but the Jets clearly have the better defense.  Detroit is 31-51 ATS in its last 82 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Jets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and come into 2018 underrated as well.  Bet the Jets Monday.

Note: I recommend buying the Jets to +7

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +7.5 

I expect the Chicago Bears to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went just 5-11 last year, but Mitchell Trubisky had nobody to throw to, and the coaching staff didn’t have a clue.  Yet, they managed to beat three of the better teams in the NFL in the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens, and they took both the Falcons and Vikings down to the wire early in the season. 

The Bears were competitive due to a defense that rank 9th in scoring and 10th in total defense.  That defense will be very good again, especially with the addition of former NFL Defensive Player Khalil Mack via trade.  They gave up a lot to get him with two first-round picks, but that won’t hurt them at all this season, only in the future. 

Matt Nagy is the new head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs under Andy Reid, and he was the perfect hire for the Bears this offseason to inject some new life into the offense.  Nagy will get the most out of Trubisky, who now has ample weapons to lead the offense.  No team improved their playmakers this offseason more than Chicago. 

The Bears added former Jacksonville No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson, who is primed for a bounce-back season after playing in just one game for the Jaguars before getting injured last year.  New slot receiver Taylor Gabriel has 4.3-40 speed and will be missed in Atlanta.  Trey Burton was stuck behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia at tight end.  But now he’ll have a chance to shine and take over the role that Travis Kelce played in Nagy’s offense in Kansas City.  They used their second-round pick on Anthony Miller out of Memphis, and they still have former first-round pick Kevin White on their roster. 

The Packers will be good as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, but they should not be favored by more than a touchdown here against the Bears.  Rodgers voiced his frustration this offseason with the lack of focus out of the receiver group, and he clearly wasn’t healthy they let one of his best friends in Jordy Nelson walk.  They are also shopping Randall Cobb. 

Devante Adams and Jimmy Graham are good targets for Rodgers, but outside of those two, the talent is pretty weak at receiver.  And the Packers have never had a consistent running game. 

Green Bay ranked 26th in scoring defense (24.0 PPG) and 22nd in total defense (348.9 yards/game) last season.  While they did add some pieces on defense to try and help out, they lost two key pieces in the secondary in CB Damarious Randall and S Morgan Burnett.  The loss of Burnett is a big one because he was a leader in the secondary for eight seasons and made the defensive calls.   

They’ll now be relying on first-round pick Jair Alexander and second-round pick Josh Jackson at cornerback this season.  Both could struggle early on.  They brought in corners Tramon Williams and Davon House, but both are just stopgaps.  Second-year CB Kevin King is coming off labrum surgery.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the most experienced member of the secondary at safety, but he was dreadful last season.  Second-year man Josh Jones and unproven Kentrell Brice are battling for the other safety position.  There will be more holes in this secondary to say the least. 

Plays against home favorites (Green Bay) who had a losing record last season, in conference games are 141-87 (61.8%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Don’t be surprised if the Bears win this game outright as they are a team on the rise this season.  But we’ll certainly take the 7.5 points without hesitation.  Take the Bears Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Denver Broncos should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are coming off a 5-11 season that was mired with awful quarterback play.  The trio of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch was about one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL last season.  That won’t be the case again. 

Case Keenum parlayed his trip to the NFC Championship Game with the Vikings into a big contract with the Broncos this offseason.  Keenum is better than he gets credit for, which was evident in Minnesota last year.  And just like in Minnesota, Keenum has a great defense to fall back on, so he doesn’t have to do too much. 

The Broncos wasted an elite defense last year.  They ranked 3rd in total defense, giving up just 290.0 yards per game.  And they will challenge for the top spot again in 2018.  The Broncos got the steal of the draft when they nabbed Bradley Chubb from NC State with the No. 5 overall pick despite the fact that he was graded out as the best player in the draft. 

Now the Von Miller-Chubb tandem at outside linebacker is as scary as it gets in the NFL.  The “No Fly Zone” secondary features Pro Bowlers Chris Harris (CB) and Darian Stewart (S).  The Broncos could afford to trade Aqib Talib because CB Bradley Roby is a future star and ready for a starting role.  This is going to be a dynamite defense. 

The Seahawks are a team in transition.  The ‘Legion of Boom’ is no longer.  Richard Sherman was traded to the 49ers, Earl Thomas is holding out and still looking to get traded, and Kam Chancellor is out for the season with a neck injury.  Not to mention, DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett are both gone.  This defense doesn’t look anything like the dominant unit it was a few years ago, and it will struggle. 

The same problem remains for Seattle’s offense.  They simply cannot run the football.  Russell Wilson has a big season last year, but only because he had to.  Wilson actually led the team in rushing, and by a wide margin.  No Seattle running back had more than 240 yards last year.  The offensive line is still a mess, and the options are limited at receiver, especially with the losses of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson.  That duo combined for 16 TD receptions last year.   

The Seahawks will struggle to reach .500 this season with all that they’ve lost.  And they have some other injury concerns heading into Week 1.  LB K.J. Wright is doubtful with a knee injury, DE Dion Jordan is questionable with a shin injury, CB Byron Maxwell is on IR with a hip injury, and WR Doug Baldwin is nursing a knee injury but expected to play.

Pete Carroll is 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Seattle.  The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine September games.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.  The key to this game will be the Broncos’ domination up front on defense against Seattle’s weak offensive line.  Russell Wilson will be running for his life.  Take the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +7 

There is a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into 2018.  For starters, Deshaun Watson is fully healthy now.  He was on pace for 43 touchdowns as a rookie before suffering a season-ending knee injury.    Watson led an offense that averaged 39 points per game from Week 3 to Week 8 in a five-game span.  It’s scary how good this offense was when he was healthy, and when WR Will Fuller was on the field.  He had 7 touchdown receptions on 28 grabs last year. 

So on offense, they have Watson and Fuller back healthy, and on defense they get their two best players back healthy as well.  J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus both return.  Watt is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  He and Jadeveon Clowney will wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  Whitney Mercilus returns from a torn pectoral muscle.  Mercilus joins a talented LB group that features leading tackler Benardick McKinney and the versatile Zach Cunningham, who are both coming off productive seasons. 

The Patriots are notorious slow starters.  We saw them lose 27-42 to the Chiefs at home in Week 1 last year, and in their next home game they barely beat Watson and the Texans 36-33 in Week 3.  The Patriots needed a 25-yard touchdown pass with 23 seconds left to escape with victory as 13.5-point favorites. 

Tom Brady is a year older, and he just doesn’t have the kind of weapons he used to.  His best receiver this year is Chris Hogan (34 receptions, 439 yards, 5 TD Last year).  Julian Edelman is serving a four-game suspension, and Danny Amendola left for the Dolphins.  Brandon Cooks left for the Rams as well.  Outside Rob Gronkowski, this is a very underwhelming receiver group.  The offensive line is a question mark with LT Nate Solder leaving in free agency. 

New England lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is now the head coach of the Detroit Lions.  And this Patriots’ defense fell apart late last year.  They also ranked just 29th in total defense during the regular season, surrendering 366.0 yards per game.  Then they gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl and couldn’t stop backup QB Nick Foles, who was dreadful prior to the Super Bowl.  There’s more questions than answers surrounding this defense heading into 2018. 

The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  This number is simply too high with the Texans catching a touchdown.  I actually think they have the better all-around team this year and will be one of the best teams in the NFL if all of the stars stay healthy that were injured last year.  They are at least healthy for Week 1, and that’s the key here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

Note: I recommend buying the Texans to +7

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +3 

I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars come in overrated after making the AFC Championship Game last year.  They came out of nowhere to do it.  They finished 10-6 in the regular season before barely getting by the Bills and Steelers, and almost upset the Patriots.  Now they will be the hunted, not the hunters in 2018.  And it’s clearly they are overvalued because they are opening as 3-point road favorites at the Giants. 

New York, on the other hand, comes in undervalued off a disastrous 3-13 season.  They were hit as hard by injuries as any team in the league last year.  And head coach Ben McAdoo was not fit for the job.  But this was a team that made the playoffs in 2016, so there is still a ton of talent on this squad.  And they got even better in the offseason. 

The Giants have improved most in the trenches.  They nabbed four new starters along the offensive line, including LT Nate Soldier from the Patriots.  They will have a running game now with that improved O-Line and the addition of first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley, who is sure to be a star in the NFL for years to come.  Odell Beckham Jr. got his big contract, and now he’s back healthy this season.  Eli Manning has everything he needs to succeed. 

The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2016.  But injuries and poor play by the offense had the defense gassed last year.  That stop unit should come back energized and get back to being one of the better defenses in the NFL in 2018.  I love the addition of LB Alec Ogletree, who will become the QB of the defense after serving the same role with the Rams previously. 

There’s no question the Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  But it’s not complemented well by the offense.  Blake Bortles is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  And his job got much tougher with the fact that the Jaguars lost last year’s leading receiver Marquise Lee in the preseason to a knee injury.  Their third-leading receiver, Allen Hurns, is gone to the Cowboys.  And former top receiver Allen Robinson is gone to the Bears.  The Jaguars are going to be so predictable on offense this year.  Teams will be able to stack eight in the box to stop Leonard Fournette, and that will be the game plan every week. 

The home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings between these teams.  Jacksonville is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 non-conference road games.  The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 September games.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Bucs +10 

Public perception couldn’t be any worse on the Bucs right now.  At the same time, public perception couldn’t be much higher on the New Orleans Saints.  So this is essentially the perfect storm here and we’re getting max value on the Bucs as 10-point road underdogs to the Saints in the opener. 

The Bucs are coming off a 5-11 season.  Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the season.  Not much is expected from the Bucs, who play in a very tough division.  But I think they’ve been hearing all offseason about how bad they are going to be.  No question them head into Week 1 with a massive chip on their shoulder. 

And I actually like the talent on this Bucs’ roster.  Their defense had three stars in DT Gerald McCoy and LB’s Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander.  They added two productive DE’s in Vinny Curry from the Eagles and Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants.  I expect this to be one of the most improved defenses in the league. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has ample weapons on the outside to be productive, and he’s one of the best backups in the NFL.  Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and the combination of OJ Howard and Cameron Brate at tight end give the Bucs some great receiving options.  Peyton Barber came on strong at running back late last year, and they added talented rookie RB Ronald Jones II in the second round.  I expect the Bucs to be a lot more competitive than the general public does this season. 

The Saints are getting a lot of hype after going 11-5 last year and losing on the Minnesota miracle in the playoffs.  Their defense improved greatly last year, but it’s still just a mediocre unit.  And the offense is more run-heavy now than it has ever been, but Mark Ingram is out to start the season due to a four-game suspension.  No question the Saints will still be good this year and a playoff contender, but I think they are getting way too much respect from the books in Week 1 here.  The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday. 

15* Falcons/Eagles 2018 NFL Season Opener on Atlanta +2 

The Philadelphia Eagles had a remarkable run to the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback.  But now it’s time for the Super Bowl hangover in 2018, and I’m predicting it starts in Week 1 with a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch from Philly’s 15-10 victory in January. 

The Eagles stunk up the preseason (0-4), especially Nick Foles, so their hangover has already started.  They lost all four preseason games by double-digits, and their offense was particularly bad, averaging just 6.8 points per game.   

Now Foles will have to start again in the opener because Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready to go.  And he’ll be without his top receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.  There’s just not a lot to like about this offense to start the season. 

The Eagles were able to get by due to a great defense that gave up just 18.2 points per game last season. But that defense won’t be nearly as good in 2018.  They lost DE Vinny Curry, LB Mychal Kendrick and CB Patrick Robinson in the offseason.  And now they are without DT Timmy Jernigan (back) and LB Nigel Bradham (suspension) in Week 1. 

Many overlooked the Falcons last season, but they still went 10-6 and had another great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl before that 5-point loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round.  Now they have basically their entire team back and will be ready for another Super Bowl Run in 2018. 

The offense is loaded with weapons for Matt Ryan this season.  The usuals are back in Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the 1-2 punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield.  But they used an early draft pick on WR Calvin Ridley, who may turn out to be the best receiver in the draft.  This will help take some pressure away from Jones in the passing game and open it up more for both he and Sanu. 

What got overlooked was the improvement of the Falcons’ defense last season.  They only surrendered 19.1 points per game in their 18 games including playoffs.  They finished in the Top 10 in scoring defense and total defense last year.  The only significant loss was DT Dontari Poe.  They have 10 starters back on D and will have one of the best stop units in the league once again.   

Plus, the Falcons are fully healthy entering 2018 because they basically rested their starters the entire preseason.  They should come out guns-a-blazing in Week 1, while the Eagles are behind the eight ball due to all their injuries and suspensions.  Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 

Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level.  Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses.  I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. 

The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries.  They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive.  And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. 

The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch.  The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game.  They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. 

Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well.  Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England Money Line -180 

The New England Patriots have a huge edge in experience in this game.  That will benefit them greatly.  The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls since 2002, winning five of them thus far.  I think they will grab their 6th victory over the inexperienced Eagles here. 

Nick Foles had a big game against the Vikings, but it’s worth noting that he got to play at home in both playoff games.  He was comfortable, but now he will be outside his comfort zone here on a neutral in the biggest game of his life. 

The Vikings game was the aberration.  The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

Now the Eagles will be up against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  It’s very difficult for a backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and I simply trust Brady exponentially more than Foles in this huge spot. 

I don’t bet a lot of money lines, but there are certain spots to do so.  The Super Bowl is one of them.  You get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl than you would in a regular season game. That’s because there is so much money line action on the underdog that the oddsmakers are forced to lower the price of the favorite.  So we are getting the Patriots at -180 here when they would normally be -200 or more if this was a regular season game in the -4.5 favorite range. 

Plays on favorites vs. the money line (New England) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers are 26-4 (86.7%, +20.4 units) since 1983. 

New England is 12-1 (+10.7 units) against the money line vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Belichick is 28-0 against the money line (+35.2 units) after covering the spread in 8 or more of the last 10 games as the coach of New England.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line in the Super Bowl. 

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3 

Everyone thinks the Minnesota Vikings got lucky to be here in the NFC Championship Game.  They saw that the Vikings needed basically a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to beat the Saints.  While that is true, let’s not forget how that game played out. 

Minnesota stormed out to a 17-0 halftime lead and still led 17-0 deep into the 3rd quarter.  I think they simply relaxed, and it’s tough to hold an offense as good as the Saints down for four quarters.  Drew Brees and the Saints’ top-ranked offense finally got on track, and coupled with a few mistakes by the Vikings with an interception in their own territory and a blocked punt, and the Saints got right back into the game. 

I like to focus not the fact that the Vikings held the Saints scoreless for nearly three quarters.  That’s no small feat.  The Vikings rank 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), 1st in yards per play (4.6/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game).  They also are 1st in 3rd down defense (25%).  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to fewer than 40% 3rd down conversions during the regular season. 

In the NFL, defense travels, and I’ll gladly back the best defense in the NFL.  But the Minnesota offense doesn’t get the credit they deserve.  They scored 24 points per game and averaged 357 yards per game during the regular season.  Case Keenum threw 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes and averaging 7.4 per attempt.  And the Vikings have run the ball well behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They rushed for 100-plus yards in eight consecutive games to close the regular season, and in 13 of their 16 games overall. 

Many felt that the Vikings were cursed, and they were certainly feeling that way with 10 seconds to play before that Hail Mary.  But after getting that ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, I really like the mindset of this team now.  The Vikings feel like they are playing on house money and will be playing freely.  There won’t be a single situation they face Sunday that will scare them.  They will have the belief they can win no matter what the circumstances.  They really believe it’s their year now. 

The Eagles have a strong defense as well this season, but the difference in this game is going to be the fact that their woeful offense just won’t be able to do anything against this Minnesota defense.  The Eagles have managed just 13, 0 and 15 points in their last three games overall.  Yes, they scored 19 against Oakland, but I don’t count 6 of those points because they got a fumble-six on the final play of the game. 

The Eagles have managed just 81.3 rushing yards per game and 175 passing yards per game in their last three contests, an average of just 251.3 yards per game.  And that came against some suspect defenses in Oakland, Dallas and Atlanta all at home.  Now the Eagles will be up against the best defense they have faced all season, and I don’t expect that to turn out well at all for struggling quarterback Nick Foles. 

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jags/Patriots AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on New England -8 

The New England Patriots are the most popular team in the NFL.  And despite that, they have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won the Super Bowl last year, the betting public keeps backing them, and they keep covering.  I can’t even explain how difficult that is. 

Now the Patriots are a win away from another Super Bowl appearance.  They made easy work of the Titans 35-14 last week and even gave up a garbage touchdown in the final seconds on fourth down to turn that from a 28-point game into a 21-point game.  And it’s worth noting the Titans went 2-0 against the Jaguars this season, outscoring them by 29 points in those two matchups. 

The Patriots couldn’t possibly be more rested right now.  They haven’t had to leave home since December 17th, so they have been in New England for over a month now.  They had a bye coming into the playoffs, while the Jaguars have had to win two games in the playoffs and played their starters in Week 17.  So the Jaguars are certainly fatigued in comparison to the Patriots. 

I trust Bill Belichick to make the Jaguars play left-handed.  They want to run the football and rely on their defense, making things easier on Blake Bortles.  Look for the Patriots to stop the run and make Bortles try and beat them.  Bortles has a 103 passer rating when playing with a lead, and a 66 rating when playing from behind this season.  I fully expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind. 

Last week’s misleading 45-42 win over the Steelers last week has the Jaguars overvalued.  The Steelers didn’t take them seriously and were looking ahead.  They dug themselves and early 21-point deficit thanks to a fumble-six and another interception that set up the Jaguars in the red zone for another score.  But we saw how vulnerable this Jaguars defense was the rest of the way as the Steelers racked up 545 total yards and 462 passing yards against them. 

You know Tom Brady and company are going to be able to move the ball and score points.  I think Rob Gronkowski is going to be a huge matchup problem for the Jaguars.  We saw Steelers tight end Vance McDonald catch 10 balls for 112 yards against the Jaguars last week.  You can only imagine the kind of game Gronkowski is going to have because he’ll be matched up with linebackers.  The Jaguars cannot afford to put Jalen Ramsey on him the whole game, and he probably won’t guard him at all. 

The Jaguars have a strong running game with Leonard Fournette, but Fournette was knocked out of the Steelers game with an ankle injury.  When he finally came back in the lineup in the second half, he wasn’t nearly as effective.  I think the rookie is starting to wear down now, and he certainly won’t be 100% for this game.  On the other side, Rex Burkhead is expected to return to the lineup for the Patriots this week, giving them another option in an already loaded backfield. 

If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you’re betting on Blake Bortles.  That’s not going to be a strategy I want any part of here.  Bortles is just 41-of-83 (49.4%) passing for 459 yards (153 yards/game) with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.  Belichick will make him try and beat them, and I don’t think he’s even close to being capable.  When the Jaguars get behind, there will be no coming back. 

New England is 8-0 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  New England is 12-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.  These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing New England.  Take the Patriots Sunday. 

20* Saints/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

I strongly believe the Minnesota Vikings will be the first team ever to play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl this season.  I feel they are far and away the best team in the NFC, but they don’t get treated like it.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here. 

Getting the bye is a huge advantage for the Vikings.  They will be rested and ready to go.  And you could argue that they’ve had three byes this season considering they had a bye on November 5th, and their Week 17 game against the Bears didn’t matter.  They will be primed for a big effort. 

Conversely, the Saints have been in playoff mode for at least three straight weeks dating back to their win over the Falcons.  The Saints haven’t had a bye since October 8th which was way back in Week 5.  They were one of the first teams to receive a bye this season.  That will make them even more tired coming into this game. 

And the Saints have been hit hard by injuries defensively, which is a big reason why I’m quick to fade them here Sunday.  They’ve lost basically five starters to season-ending injuries on defense.  They are without LB Alex Anzalone, DE Alex Okafor, LB A.J. Klein, LB Hau’oli Kikaha, S Kenny Vaccaro, DE Mitchell Loewen and CB Delvin Breaux. 

All these injuries and the lack of rest has this New Orleans defense playing awful here down the stretch.  They allowed 31 points and 455 total yards in a loss to the Bucs in Week 17 in which they needed a win to clinch the division.  Then they allowed 26 points and 413 total yards to the Panthers in their 31-26 home win where they were life-and-death in the closing seconds just to win that game. 

One stat that really stands out in these two games is that New Orleans has allowed 60% conversions on 3rd down to the Bucs and Panthers.  They allowed the Bucs to convert 13-of-18 on 3rd down, and the Panthers to convert 8-of-16 on 3rd down. 

Now let’s look at this Minnesota defense, which I believe to be the best stop unit in the NFL.  The Vikings have the No. 1 3rd down defense in the NFL, giving up just 25% conversions on the year.  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to less than 40% 3rd down conversions in every game.  Minnesota ranks 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), tied for 1st in yards per play defense (4.6 yards/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). 

This Minnesota defense has been even better at home.  They allow just 12.5 points per game and 248 yards per game at home this year.  They have only allowed one touchdown in their last five home games combined.  If that’s not dominance, I don’t know what is.  And I think Minnesota’s home-field advantage is worth upwards of 4 points in the playoffs, which will be the most hostile atmosphere the Saints have played in all season. 

After all, these teams already played once in Minnesota back in Week 1.  The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in that contest.  They racked up 470 yards of total offense while limiting the Saints to 344 yards, outgaining them by 126 yards in that contest.  These teams are different since then, but I could see a very similar end result with a 10-plus point victory for the Vikings. 

While everyone knows the Vikings’ defense is good, they don’t want to give Case Keenum and the offense their due.  But this offense has been just fine in averaging 24 points and 357 yards per game on the season.  Keenum has thrown 22 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions this season while completing 67.6% of his passes while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.  And the Vikings have been able to run the ball behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They have rushed for at least 100 yards in eight consecutive games and in 13 of their 16 games this season. 

The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games, including 12-4 ATS inside their new stadium, which opened last year.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Steelers AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -7 

A big reason I faded the Jaguars last week and backed the Bills was the fact that the Jaguars played the 32nd-toughest schedule this season.  That’s right, they played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  It was a big reason for their huge turnaround season. 

I also think Doug Marrone made a big mistake playing his starters in Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Titans in which they lost 10-15.  They were already locked in to the No. 3 seed, so there was no need to play the starters.  I think Tom Coughlin was in his ear and his old-school ways overtook him.  It’s really going to cost them this week. 

The Jaguars were fortunate it didn’t cost them last week.  The Bills were the better team but lost 10-3.  They outgained the Jaguars by 39 yards.  They held this woeful Jacksonville offense to just 230 total yards.  Blake Bortles was awful, completing just 12-of-23 passes for 87 yards in the win.  He did shockingly rush for 88 yards, while Leonard Fournette was held to 57 yards on 21 carries.  His legs are the reason they won, but now the Steelers will be prepared for that element of his game after seeing it against Buffalo. 

The Steelers have had horrible luck in the playoffs injury-wise in previous years.  They have been missing one of the Killer B's basically every year they have made the playoffs in recent years, and it’s usually Le’Veon Bell.  But after resting the Killer B’s in Week 17, all three of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy going into the playoffs.  Brown is expected to return from his calf injury, and the Steelers are remarkably healthy everywhere outside of LB Ryan Shazier now. 

And boy are the Steelers going to be revenge-minded.  They were rusty earlier in the year due to Bell’s suspension and lacked chemistry.  I think that helps their 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th, which is one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see.  The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 373-313 in that game yet lost by 21.  That only tells half the story. 

Big Ben hard arguably the worst game of his career, throwing five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  A couple of those were tipped balls and weren’t his fault, but he was still jokingly contemplating retirement afterwards.  And Fourtnette had a 90-yard TD run with only 1:47 remaining as they were just trying to run out the clock.  So without that run, the Jaguars would have only had 223 total yards.  I think that’s a number that we can expect them to have in this rematch. 

Bortles only went 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards without an touchdown and with one interception in that game.  And there is the problem with the Jaguars.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this game.  I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to be much more productive on offense than they were in the first meeting. 

And the reason they will be more productive is because they won’t put so much on Big Ben’s shoulder.  Look for 30-plus carries from Le’Veon Bell because the Steelers realize they are better when he gets more carries as it has shown throughout their history.  That will open things up for Big Ben in play-action, and they won’t be playing into the Jaguars’ defensive strength, which is their pass defense. 

Big Ben through 55 times in that first meeting.  I only expect him to throw 20-30 times in the rematch.  That will negate the Jacksonville pass rush, which has been their strength all season.  The weakness of the Jaguars is their run defense, which ranked 21st in the league in the regular season, giving up 116.2 rushing yards per game.  The Jaguars have allowed 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last seven games overall. 

With Bortles being one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Jaguars are going to try to run the football.  Well, the Steelers have been stout against the run all season.  They have allowed 91 or fewer rushing yards in 10 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 10th against the run in giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game on the year.  And their defense is significantly improved overall, giving up just 19.2 points per game on the season. 

Pittsburgh is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a home favorite.  It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% over the last two seasons.  They are winning these games by 16.5 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

I was on the Falcons last week and I’m going to back them again this week.  Except this time, they are up against a much weaker opponent than they were last week against the Rams.  The Eagles are only a shell of the team they were with Carson Wentz before. 

A big reason why I loved the Falcons last week is because their perception is way down compared to last year coming into the playoffs.  But they still managed to win 10 games despite playing the 4th-most difficult schedule in the NFL.  And their numbers from a yards per play basis were almost identical to where they were last year, but they struggled in the red zone more than they did last season. 

The Falcons still had to settle for four field goals against the Rams last week, but their offense was productive in a 26-13 victory.  But what really has me excited about this team is how well the defense has been playing down the stretch. 

Indeed, the Falcons have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games to close out the season. This despite facing the Saints twice, the Vikings, the Panthers and the Rams, five playoff teams in their final seven games.  They are giving up just 16.3 points per game and 319.2 yards per game in their last six games.  This defense is playing much better than it gets credit for. 

Now the Falcons should have another great defensive showing against an Eagles team that has been terrible on offense in its last two games.  The Eagles were leading Oakland 13-10 before a fluke lateral fumble return for a touchdown on the final play to win 19-10 in Week 16.  Then they lost 0-6 to Dallas despite playing their starters for much of the game. 

The culprit has been the horrible play of backup quarterback Nick Foles.  He is completing just 56.4% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per attempt in his last three games, which came agains the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders.  Those aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts. 

I think a big reason Foles has struggled is because he’s a warm weather quarterback.  He played for Arizona in college and mostly in perfect weather out on the West Coast.  Now he’s in Philadelphia and has played three straight cold weather games at New York, and at home against Oakland and Dallas.  And the temperature Saturday is going to be a high of 30 and a low of 18 with 10 mile per hour winds.  I don’t trust him one bit, and I don’t think the Philadelphia players trust him either. 

As I mentioned before, the Falcons played the 4th-most difficult schedule this season.  The Eagles played the 21st-toughest to compare.  They simply took advantage of an easy schedule, won basically all of their close games, and got great play from Carson Wentz to lead the way.  But Wentz is no longer here to save the day, otherwise this would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  The difference from Wentz to Foles is 7-plus points, if not more. 

I still think Atlanta is on a mission to make up for last year’s Super Bowl debacle.  That has shown here down the stretch as they have won four of their last five with their only loss coming on the road to the Saints.  The Eagles have shown signs of being a fraud with Foles against the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders down the stretch, and now they will be up against their best opponent yet in Atlanta. 

Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against a hot team, a team that won 8 of their last 10 games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Bet the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Bills/Jaguars NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +9 

Both the Bills and Jaguars were Cinderella stories this season.  The Jaguars won their first-ever AFC South title, will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and will hosting their first playoff game since 1999.  The Bills were able to snap the longest playoff drought in the NFL, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 1999. 

The books have simply set this number too high.  The Jaguars cannot be laying more than a touchdown to the Bills in this matchup.  The Jaguars may be 3 to 4 points better on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to 6 or 7.  I think we’re getting a ton of value with the Bills +9 here folks. 

A lot will be made of the Bills’ point differential leading into this game.  It’s the fifth-worst point differential of any team to ever make the playoffs at -57.  But keep in mind that Nate Peterman was responsible for a lot of that in a 24-54 loss to the Chargers.  And also, the four teams will worse point differentials in playoff history all won their first playoff game. 

Another thing you’ll hear is that the Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks.  Well, now they’ll be up against a mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has been one of the most underrated signal callers in the NFL over the past few seasons.  Taylor led the Bills to three wins in the final four games just to get into the playoffs.  Taylor has completed 62.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 427 yards and four scores on 5.1 per carry. 

I think the Jaguars made a big mistake not resting their starters in Week 17 against the Titans.  They were already locked into the No. 3 seed and had nothing to play for.  Doug Marrone and his old-school mentality that may have been influenced by Tom Coughlin was clearly not happy with the 33-44 loss at San Francisco the week before.  But the Jaguars were even worse against the Titans in a 10-15 loss, managing just 227 total yards while turning it over four times.  They aren’t playing well coming in, and now they won’t be fresh, either. 

The Bills have really stepped it up defensively here down the stretch.  They have given up 16 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  The only exceptions were the 23 and the 37 allowed to the Patriots in their two meetings with them, which is no shame.  Their defense is good enough to contain Blake Bortles and this weak Jacksonville offense.  That’s another reason the Jaguars can’t be this big of a favorite because Bortles is still their quarterback. 

The strength of the Bills offensively is their running game.  They have rushed for at least 104 yards in six of their last seven games and rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 126.1 yards per game.  LeSean McCoy is a fast healer and should be ready to go as he returned to practice late in the week.  And the weakness of the Jaguars’ defense is against the run.  They rank 21st in rushing defense at 116.2 yards per game and 4.3 per carry allowed.  The Jaguars have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. 

A big reason for the Jaguars’ success this season is their weak schedule.  They actually played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the entire NFL.  The Bills played the 16th-toughest schedule.  According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS since the inception of the Wild Card.  Underdogs that played the harder schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

15* Falcons/Rams NFC Saturday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5 

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be highly motivated to make a deep run in the playoffs after what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.  They have held it together pretty well this season and have avoided that dreaded Super Bowl hangover. 

I like the fact that the Falcons have been in must-win mode here down the stretch, which is basically playoff mode, so they are battle-tested and ready to go.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 down the stretch while outgaining all four opponents, their only loss coming on the road at New Orleans. 

Last week they needed a win to get in the playoffs, and boy did they deliver.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 at home and outgained them by 123 total yards.  Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown without an interception to lead the way.  The defense came through with arguably their best performance of the season, limiting Cam Newton to 14-of-34 passing for 180 yards and forcing three interceptions.  The Panthers managed just 248 total yards in the game. 

The Rams were smart to rest many of their starters against the 49ers last week.  And I have been high on this team all season, but they weren’t in playoff mode in Week 17, and I don’t trust their inexperience in this pressure-packed situation.  Mostly everyone on the roster has little-to-no playoff experience, including QB Jared Goff.  I certainly trust Ryan more in this situation than Goff.  And we’re getting 6.5 points with the Falcons to boot. 

The Falcons actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  Only the Saints, Jaguars and Vikings have been better in this department.  That’s even more impressive when you consider the Falcons faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season.  This team isn’t as broken as the media leads you on to believe. 

While the Falcons played the 4th-toughest schedule, the Rams played the 17th-hardest.  That’s important when we look at a wild card system that is tried and true.  Since the inception of the wild card, teams that played the tougher schedule according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS.  Underdogs with the tougher schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, like it is here (4th & 17th), the team that played the harder schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS. 

Atlanta is 6-0 ATS against NFC West opponents over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon.  It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. 

The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home.  Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season.  In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year!  They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. 

The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games.  They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games.  Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated.  And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game.  Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. 

The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch.  They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall.  Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. 

Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch.  They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games.  They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall.  They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. 

The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points.  Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +4 

I’ve been on the 49ers every week since Jimmy Garoppolo took over.  I’m not about to buck them now.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since he took over.  He is undefeated in his career as a starting quarterback dating back to his time with New England.  He is the real deal. 

If you don’t believe Garoppolo is for real after he put up 44 points on Jacksonville’s vaunted defense last week, you need your head checked.  Garopplo is completing 69.0% of his passes for 1,268 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the 49ers.  He is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  Those are MVP-type numbers over a four-game sample. 

The success the offense is having has prompted the defense to step up their game and play with a new passion as well.  The defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game over their past four games.  It’s a stop unit with a ton of talent along the front seven, and the secondary intercepted Blake Bortles three times last week.  The 49ers want to finish off this 5-0 run and keep their momentum going into the offseason. 

But the key handicap for this game is the motivation for the and rest situation for the Rams.  I locked in the 49ers +4 early in the week anticipating that the Rams might rest starters.  And that’s precisely what has happened in this game.  Head coach Sean McVey came out and said that almost all of his key starters are going to rest, including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and many others. 

It was another wise move by McVey, who has been as impressive as any head coach this season.  It makes 100% sense.  The Rams are going to have to play next week, and they’re going to get a home game.  It would actually benefit them to lose and get the No. 4 seed instead of fighting for the No. 3 seed. 

That’s because the No. 4 seed is going to likely get to play the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles two weeks from now.  They would take on struggling Nick Foles and the Eagles, who have limped to the finish line, instead of taking on No. 2 seed Minnesota, which looks like the best team in the NFC.  The Rams were already throttled 24-7 on the road by the Vikings and don’t want to have to play them again.  They nearly beat the Eagles, losing 35-43 in the game that Carson Wentz got hurt. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) after covering two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams.  Take the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I locked this line in at +4 early in the week anticipating the Rams would likely be resting their starters.  That has turned out to be true.  This is still a 20* play all the way to 49ers -3.  It’s a 15* play at -3.5 or higher.  I think there’s a good chance the 49ers blow them out of the building still, so don’t let the line move shy you away from betting them.  It's a benefit to my long-term clients to get the plays as soon as I release them instead of purchasing the day of the game and getting worse lines.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +9 

The fact that this is a must-win game for the Seahawks is baked into the number.  They need to win and have the Falcons lost at home to the Panthers to get into the playoffs.  But this line has gotten out of hand and indicates the Cardinals are just going to lay down for them.  That won’t be the case. 

There is rumors that it may be the last game for Bruce Arians at Arizona.  His players absolutely love him and it’s well documented.  It could also be the final game for Larry Fitzgerald.  I think everyone will play their hearts out for those two guys, and they would love nothing more than to be the team that knocked the hated Seahawks out of the playoffs. 

Quietly, the Cardinals have gotten to 7-8 this season and will be motivated to finish .500 as well.  They have been hit hard by injuries, but have battled through it.  They are playing their best football of the season down the stretch. 

The Cardinals have actually outgained four of their last five opponents while going 3-2 over their last five games.  Their defense is playing as well as any defense in the NFL, giving up just 247.4 yards per game in their last five games.  And Drew Stanton and his big arm and mobility has given the offense spark.  He is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. 

I think Seattle beating Dallas 21-12 on the road last week has them overvalued now.  But that was one of the most misleading finals you will ever see.  They actually had more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) of offense in that game.  They were outgained by 147 yards by the Cowboys. 

In fact, the Seahawks have been playing terrible for four straight weeks.  They have been outgained in four consecutive games and by a total of 488 yards in those four, or by an average of 122 yards per game.  The betting public is quick to forget that Seattle was just blown out at home 42-7 by the Rams the week prior.  What a difference a week and a misleading 21-12 win over Dallas makes.  Their offense is still a mess, and their defense still has injuries everywhere. 

Arizona always plays Seattle tough, and that will be no different hear.  And home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late.  The road team is 5-0-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Arizona won outright as 9-point dogs and as 3-point dogs in its last two trips to Seattle.  The Cardinals may not win outright Sunday, but they will give the Seahawks more of a fight than they bargained for. 

Arians is 9-1 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached.  Arians is a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a loss loss by 7 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  After a tough 22-16 home loss to the Seahawks thanks to a miracle play from Russell Wilson, the Cardinals will be revenge-minded here and have the ability to pull off the upset.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday. 

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +14 

The Cleveland Browns are now assured the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.  I don’t think they were purposely tanking this season to get that pick, but that’s what happens when you go 0-15.  So now their focus will be on getting a win and not becoming the second 0-16 team, joining the Detroit Lions. 

I took the Browns early in the week when the line came out anticipating that the Steelers were going to rest their starters.  The Steelers clinched a first-round bye on Monday with their 34-6 win over the Texans.  So now they’ll be on a short week, and they would be wise to rest their starters. 

Plus, the Patriots are 15.5-point home favorites over the Jets.  Conventional wisdom says the Patriots aren’t losing that game, so the Steelers have no chance to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  The more important thing is for them to be healthy going into the playoffs because they haven’t been fully healthy for years. 

The Killer B’s have all missed time in the playoffs in recent years.  Le’Veon Bell seems to get hurt going into or during the playoffs every year.  But he’s healthy now and Mike Tomlin would be wise to sit him.  He would also be wise to sit Big Ten, and Antonio Brown is already out.  He is expected to return for the playoffs, though. 

Tomlin has already hinted at all three of these players resting early on in the week, and tackle Marcus Gilbert came out and said as much as Big Ten and Bell won’t play.  He said Landry Jones will get the start.  Don’t be surprised if several other key players get the day off. 

This happened in Week 17 last year as well.  Cleveland nearly beat the Steelers on the road.  They lost 24-27 at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs in overtime.  Don’t be surprised if this line gets down to close to the -3 mark as well if Tomlin rests as many players as I’m anticipating, and plays this like a preseason game as he should. 

Cleveland played one of its best games of the year against Pittsburgh back in Week 1.  The Browns only lost that game 18-21 as 10-point home underdogs.  They haven’t been as bad as their 0-15 record would suggest this season.  But they are last in the NFL in turnover differential by a wide margin.  They are -28 in turnovers on the season, which is almost unheard of. 

Design Kizer should have a much better day against a Steelers team that will be treating this like a preseason game.  I think the Browns want to go into the offseason with some momentum and a win.  They are only getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season, so obviously it has just been the turnovers that killed them.  There are many teams with worse yardage differentials than them. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Cleveland) - off a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent that scored 30 or more points in their last game are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pittsburgh is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

Note: This play is a 25* all the way down to +10.  It's a 20* from +7 to +9.5. It's a 15* at +6.5 or less.  I realize this line has moved a ton since more information became available.  That's why it's a benefit to my long-term clients to get my plays as soon as I release them instead of buying them the day of the game and getting worse lines.

20* Raiders/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -9 

The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.  It’s safe to say they will be motivated to the max.  A win would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17 and really get a leg up on the competition heading into the playoffs. 

Conversely, the Oakland Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  And the way they were eliminated will be very difficult to recover from.  Derek Carr was diving for the game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys last week, but he fumbled through the end zone for a touchback.  Gone with that fumble was any hope of them making the postseason.  There’s no question in my mind that the Raiders will suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they won’t even show up Monday night. 

The Raiders also have some significant injuries at the wide receiver position that hamper them even further.  Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are highly questionable heading into this game.  Cooper has a nagging ankle injury, while Crabtree suffered a concussion against the Cowboys that forced him off the field for the final play of the game.  They may both play, but I question the effectiveness of Carr’s top two receivers. 

The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 19.8 points per game, scoring 35.0 on offense and giving up just 15.2 on defense.  Nick Foles showed last week that he can man the offense just fine, throwing four touchdown passes against the Giants on the road and leading the Eagles to 34 points. 

Doug Perderson is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Philadelphia.  Pederson is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win as the coach of the Eagles.  I don’t think the Raiders will enjoy the cold weather in Philadelphia Monday night, either.  I always like fading warm weather West Coast teams in these cold weather games.  It’s expected to be 26 degrees and windy Monday night.  Bet the Eagles Monday. 

15* Jags/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4.5 

I’ve backed the San Francisco 49ers with success in three consecutive weeks.  I’m not about to buck them now as they are once again undervalued here Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They are 3-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo, and they are clearly playing with a new level of excitement and intensity on both sides of the ball now. 

The 49ers won Garoppolos’ first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgunned the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Two weeks ago the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgunned the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  Those two performances showed that this is a much more dynamic offensive under Garoppolo. 

Last week the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field at will on the Tennessee Titans.  They only won that game 22-20, but it should have been a much bigger blowout.  They again had problems in the red zone and settled for a whopping six field goals.  Garoppolo had another monster game, completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions. 

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders under Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, the defense has been extremely impressive and not getting the respect they deserve.  The 49ers are only giving up 262.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last three contests.  They should be able to slow down a mediocre Jaguars offense that could be missing three key playmakers in Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars come in way overvalued due to its 45-7 home victory over Houston last week.  It was their third straight victory, all coming at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time since November.  They were last on the road on November 26th, getting upset 27-24 at Arizona as 6-point favorites.  They were actually outgunned by 125 yards by the Cardinals in that contest. 

Let’s just look at this game from a line value perspective.  San Francisco goes from being a 2.5-point home favorite against Tennessee to a 4.5-point home dog against Jacksonville.  Well, Jacksonville and Tennessee are two similar teams talent-wise, and yet their is a 7-point swing in this line.  So we are basically getting 7 points of value with the 49ers in my opinion this week. 

Jacksonville now has a two-game lead over Tennessee for first place in the AFC South.  Well, Tennessee is a touchdown home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams this week.  That game will go off at 1:00 EST and will be over by the time this game starts.  So the Jaguars are likely to clinch the AFC South title before this game starts.  I will certainly question their motivated this week if the Titans lose to the Rams like they’re supposed to.  Basically, I know for sure I’m going to get a big effort from the 49ers, but the Jaguars motivation is in question to say the least given the situation. 

Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. NFC West opponents.  Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +3.5 

The Denver Broncos are probably the single-most underrated team in the entire NFL heading into the final two weeks of the season.  This team has a 5-9 record, and that’s what the betting public looks at, but this team has the numbers of a 9-5 team or better. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game on the season.  That is one of the better marks in the NFL.  Their offense has just been mediocre at best, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, and defense travels. 

The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 276.8.  They are second in third-down percentage (30.8%) allowed.  They defend the run well, they can stack the box because they have some of the best corners in the NFL who can play man-to-man. 

It’s clear that the Broncos have not quit, and their defense continues to play at a high level.  They have won their last two games with a 23-0 victory over the Jets and a 25-13 triumph over the Colts.  They held the Jets to just 100 total yards and the Colts to just 228 total yards in the two victories. 

But what really intrigues me is the performance of Brock Osweiler last week after he replaced the injured Trevor Siemian.  He led the Broncos to a season-high 462 total yards.  Osweiler finished with a 99.4 QBR out of 100, which is the single-best mark in the NFL in any one game this year.  He had 194 passing yards on 12 completions and two touchdowns, while also rushing for a score.  He is motivated to try and prove that he belongs as a started in the NFL over the final three weeks, and you could see that against the Colts last week. 

The Redskins are 6-8, and they have the numbers of a 6-8 team.  They are getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  They have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the football.  Their defense is giving up points in bunches and cannot be trusted.  The Redskins have allowed 30 or more points in six of their last nine games overall. 

The Redskins were fortunate to beat the Cardinals 20-15 last week.  They were outgunned 218 to 286 by the Cardinals, but Arizona was held to five field goals, and their red zone struggles were the difference.  The Redskins have been held to 65 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  They are going to be one-dimensional because Denver ranks 4th in the NFL against the run.  But the Broncos are 2nd against the pass, so they are as equipped as anyone to stop Kirk Cousins and Washington’s preferred pass attack. 

I like the fact that the Broncos come in on extra rest here too after playing the Colts last Thursday.  That will give them ample time to get ready for Washington, and getting a few extra days of rest is huge this late in the season when players are worn down.  It will make them the more energized team heading into this game Sunday. 

Washington is 61-94 ATS in its last 155 games as a favorite, including 42-69 ATS in its last 111 games as a home favorite.  The Redskins are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5 

The Cleveland Browns will continue fighting over these final two weeks to try and avoid a winless season.  Now they have one of their best chances yet to get a win this week against the 4-10 Chicago Bears.  And they are getting 6.5 points to boot, which is too many I believe. 

The Browns rank last in turnover differential by a wide margin this season.  They are -25 in turnover differential.  They haven’t forced a turnover in four games.  I think they have been extremely unlucky this season in the turnover department. 

Fortunately, this week they’re up against a Bears defense that doesn’t force many turnovers.  The Bears have only forced 19 turnovers on the season.  And Chicago has a ton of injury issues right now on defense that will make life easier on Deshon Kizer and the Browns offense. 

This is a good matchup for the Browns on defense as well.  The strength of the Browns is their rushing defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 96.1 rushing yards per game.  The Browns are actually 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.3) allowed.  The Bears only average 177 passing yards per game, so stopping the rushing attack is the key to stopping them.  The Bears average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  Cleveland is equipped to slow down Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. 

My favorite trend in this game pertains to Chicago head coach John Fox.  Fox is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Bears.  Chicago is losing by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  That’s right, the Bears have never even won a game straight up in seven tries as a favorite under Fox. 

Chicago is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games versus poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game.  Plays on road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -8 

The Green Bay Packers have quit.  They just suffered their dream-crushing loss last week despite the return of Aaron Rodgers.  Now they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.  As a result, management has decided to put Rodgers back on injured reserve, signaling to the entire team that they don’t care about these last two games. 

The Packers also have a laundry list of injuries elsewhere outside of Rodgers.  There are currently 19 players either on injured reserve or questionable, including WR Devante Adams, who has 10 touchdowns receptions on the season.   

Adams would be a huge loss, and it would be smart of the Packers to rest him considering it’s the second severe concussion he has suffered this season.  They shouldn’t risk his long-term health.  The Vikings have a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes, and they’ll put him on Jordy Nelson.  Brett Hundley won’t have many options outside, and those limitations are a big reason why I like the Vikings this week. 

The Vikings will be highly motivated.  They need to keep winning to clinch a first-round bye.  If they were to lose and the Panthers were to win this week, they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers because of a head-to-head loss.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all about Minnesota’s motivation.  They would love to kick the Packers while they’re down after so many years of frustration against them in this division. 

"I told my team this: We're a good team, we're not a great team,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "I don't know if there's any great teams out there, but we're a good team. We don't have the luxury of looking past anybody, and that's really not our mentality as a football team (or) the kind of guys that we have.”

Hundley will face a huge challenge against a Vikings defense that ranks second in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Conversely, Case Keenum is in line for a big day.  He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (98.9) and second in completion percentage (67.9).  Green Bay is No. 30 in opponent passer rating (100.5) and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage (68.4).  The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 first downs last week.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or less are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Vikings Saturday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night.  After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons.  I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night.  It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points.  That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total.  And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. 

None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another.  Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings.  Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. 

I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. 

Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game.  The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play.  They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. 

James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball.  The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games.  But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit.  They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. 

Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years.  The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2 

I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts.  I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans.  The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season.  They are 2-0 in this new season. 

The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued. 

The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated.  And boy, is this defense playing well.  The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately.  San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans. 

The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL.  They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team.  They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record.  They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good. 

Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season.  That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock.  Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over.  It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games. 

The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week.  Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going.  The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss.  Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions.  He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week.  The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games.  They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either. 

San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons.  The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game.  But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return. 

Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point.  And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole.  They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well.  The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team. 

The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven.  They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game.  All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week.  Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense.  They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week. 

Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week.  Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win.  The Steelers are the definition of an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season.  They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year. 

This is an awful spot for the Patriots.  They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks.  That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in.  Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.  I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory. 

This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines. 

Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run.  The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.  Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year. 

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more.  Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7 

You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season.  They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead.  There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done. 

It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime.  So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play.  But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens.  When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime. 

The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record.  They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team.  They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play.  We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season.  I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins. 

Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns.  They rank worse in total offense and total defense.  They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play.  I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week.  They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat. 

Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week.  It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air.  The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens.  Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game.  This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward. 

Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year.  The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns.  The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory. 

Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch.  Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting.  I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this.  The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. 

Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6 

The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback.  They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles.  So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games.  And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week. 

Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season.  He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs.  The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win. 

Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions.  The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won.  They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense.  Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense. 

The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread.  And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21. 

What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game.  The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. 

This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less.  That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday. 

Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bears Saturday. 

20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2 

The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt.  That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10.  They are right where they should be.  They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games.  They aren’t going to win this game, either. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game.  They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game.  Not great, but way better than the Colts. 

The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL.  They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense.  They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense. 

I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more.  They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime.  That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements.  This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week.  They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win.  It helped that they got Aqib Talib back.  After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh.  That’s key with this short week.  That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season.

The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos.  The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman.  No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year.  That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks.

Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games.  The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5

The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here.  They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC.  Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that.  They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week.  But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge.  And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.

Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense.  He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos.  The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.

This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season.  Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week.  He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami.  What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.

The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5

Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point.  Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive.  It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points.  They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16.  Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans.  They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.

Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer.  And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams.  They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites.  I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.

While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not.  Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles.  The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.  I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.

The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football.  That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday.  Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense.  He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed.  Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict.  That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents.  Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise.  They are much healthier now.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season.  After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas.  Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.

This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs.  They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place.  That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.

Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road.  They completely imploded, committing four turnovers.  Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now.  I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.

It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field.  They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week.  They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders.  The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall.  Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.

The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3

I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs.  I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.

The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.  He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal.  This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer.  And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.

I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week.  But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense.  One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.

Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing.  He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers.  His accuracy was impressive.  The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone.  Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.

The Houston Texans are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year.  They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week.  There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.

First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer.  They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week.  TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.  

They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now.  Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season.  The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.

San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2

Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective.  This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons.  They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.

I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings.  The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.

But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one.  And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week.  From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.

Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans.  The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card.  And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up.  They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers.  If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs.  So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.

It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel.  The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints.  S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans.  Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.

Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories.  The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.  Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6 

Let’s look at this number from a value perspective.  Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season.  Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch.  Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now.  That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals. 

Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line.  The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season.  They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now. 

The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable.  The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal.  The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game.  They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted.  Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden.  Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable. 

Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks.  Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season. 

I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now.  They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles.  This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do. 

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday.  He is going to be a game-time decision.  Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him.  Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it. 

The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning.  They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4.  So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye.  They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks.  They get three of their final four games at home.  So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.  Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday. 

20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6 

What would this line have been before the season?  Seattle -7 is my guess.  That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season.  Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks. 

The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year.  They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games.  He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season. 

A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries.  They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games.  They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco.  These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on. 

I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses.  They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss.  I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.

Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now.  And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points.  But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them.  And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home.  It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle.  This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.

Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons.  Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7 

The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse.  They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now. 

Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them.  This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown. 

Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals.  They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt.  They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. 

Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks.  He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense.  He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season. 

Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs.  In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average.  His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home. 

The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season.  Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control.  The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here. 

And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London.  The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London.  Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now.  The value is clearly with Arizona.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3 

Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard.  It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more.  Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there.  The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass. 

The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm.  This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record.  Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer.  Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too.  And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago. 

While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears.  Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks.  The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team.  They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat. 

The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks.  These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now.  There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago. 

Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch.  They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5 

Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here.  They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value. 

The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs.  They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh.  The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee. 

The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team.  They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year.  Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis. 

Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game).  The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game.  He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right.  Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%.  And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week.  All three are questionable. 

Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit.  The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.   

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5 

The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others.  They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins. 

In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered.  They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season.  Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress. 

The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot.  The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.   

With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact.  With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact. 

The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints.  They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week.  They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week. 

Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league.  Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense.  The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. 

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons.  Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Redskins Thursday. 

15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  It has allowed them to put together some strong performances here of late.  They currently sit at 5-5 and right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, so this is a huge game for them on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have won two of their last three while outscoring their last three opponents a combined 83-23 in the process.  They have shut out Miami 40-0 and Green Bay 23-0 during this stretch behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens only allow 17.1 points per game, 306 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

The Texans have a different outlook.  They were looking great with Deshaun Watson running the show, but since he got hurt they have fallen off the map.  They are now 4-6 with essentially zero chance of making the playoffs.  And I'm not about to give them much credit for beating injury-ravaged Arizona last week at home because they were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game.

Tom Savage continues to prove that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  This offense has been a shell of its former self without Watson.  And Houston's defense is no longer one of the better units in the NFL with all of the season-ending injuries on that side of the ball to the likes of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing and others.  The Texans give up 26.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

Late-season byes are huge for NFL teams, and the Ravens got one in Week 10.  They returned from that bye to crush the Packers 23-0 on the road last week.  They limited the Packers to just 265 total yards while forcing five turnovers.  So now they are the fresher team in this matchup as the Texans haven't had their bye back in Week 7 and have gone 1-3 since.

Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 21 points or more.  The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.  John Harbaugh always has his teams playing their best late in the season.  I look for Baltimore to continue playing well on MNF and to beat the hapless Texans by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Ravens Monday.