20* Steelers/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 36

The lookahead total for this game was 42.  Bettors were anticipating weather so they bet this all the way down to a low of 36.  I bought the dip at 36 below the key numbers of 37 and 38 when it comes to NFL totals.  I think there's great value here on the OVER 36.

The forecast looks much better now than they projected early in the week, which happens all the time.  What was forecast to be 15-20 MPH winds is now in the single-digits.  Yes, there will be possible snow and rain, but wind affects scoring much more than precipitation.  A slick field actually favors the offense because players know where they are going.

The Steelers were trending as an OVER team with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  They went 3-0 OVER in his first three starts with 52, 44 and 55 combined points before a 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week that stayed well under the total of 48.5.  That result I think is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.

The Steelers had to settle for 6 field goals against the Ravens as they simply could not punch in their scoring chances.  The Ravens also blew some opportunities as well.  And that's one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL and usually lower scoring to boot as they know each other inside and out.

Cleveland is an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They have gone for 53, 37 and 49 combined points in his three starts.  He stretches the field with big plays and big mistakes.  Winston threw for 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints last week in a 35-14 loss.  The Browns left a lot of points on the board including three missed field goals.  They still managed 49 combined points.

That's because this Cleveland defense is broken.  They allowed 35 points and 473 total yards to what was a short-handed New Orleans offense.  Taysom Hill ran for 138 yards on only seven carries and three touchdowns.  I think the Steelers will have similar success against them tonight.

The Steelers and Browns have combined for at least 40 points in seven of their last nine meetings.  And there has been some very poor QB play during this stretch, but I think these two teams are in about as good a shape as they have been at the QB position in a long time.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Texans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7

I jumped on the Texans +5 on the opener last week against the Lions with the anticipation that Nico Collins would be back.  He ended up getting scratched right before the game, and I felt fortunate to cash that ticket in a 3-point loss to the Lions even though the Texans led that game 23-7 at home point.

Now Nico Collins is officially back this week, which is why I'm willing to lay the -7 with the Texans among other factors.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  He means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense, which has actually produced a great running game this season with Joe Mixon.  Now the passing game will take off again this week.

Of course, it helps that the Texans get to play the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  The Texans will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses so they won't be looking past Dallas.  And they get to take on a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons and 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles.  And they even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty.  That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.

It's not going to get any easier this week against a Houston Texans defense that has been great all season.  The Texans rank 3rd in total defense at 288.0 yards per game and 5th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  They rank 4th against the pass at 174.7 passing yards per game allowed, so Cooper Rush or Trey Lance won't be able to come back on them once they take a commanding lead.

Dallas is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this season and has trailed by at least 20 points in all four home games.  They lost 44-19 to the Saints, 28-25 to the Ravens after trailing by 22 entering the 4th, 47-9 to the Lions and 34-6 to the Eagles.  And they had Dak Prescott running the offense for those first three games.  

The Cowboys don't have a running game to help out their QB, and they are lacking weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is banged up right now.  They just aren't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive.  Houston is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season and hungry to get the offense going with Collins back.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Bengals/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They just went for 69 combined points with the Ravens, 65 with the Raiders and 54 with the Eagles in their last three games coming in.

Now the Bengals get their star WR Tee Higgins back from injury this week and will be even more potent on offense.  They put up 41 points on the Raiders and 34 points and 470 yards on the Ravens in their last two games without him.  LT Orlando Brown may be back this week as well.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

The current version of this Cincinnati offense will be far and away the best the Chargers have seen all season.  The Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout, and they should be able to do just that with the way their offense is trending in recent weeks since getting several key players back from injury.

The Chargers put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  Now they get to face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in scoring at 26.2 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 347.5 yards per game.  The Chargers are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season.  Cincinnati is without LB Joe Bachie and both DE Trey Hendrickson and DT BJ Hill are questionable.

This has the makings of a shootout in perfect conditions in Los Angeles Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Falcons/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team that hasn't exactly gone of the total much this season at 6-4 to the UNDER.  That is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the league in their current state.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 375.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The put up 468 total yards on the Saints last week but only 17 points.  They missed three field goals and bogged down in the red zone.  I think that misleading 20-17 final against the Saints last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

This Denver offense has been trending up under Rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win.

Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.  The Falcons are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't stopping Denver.  This is a solid Denver defense, but it's also true that they have benefited from facing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses this season.  We saw what could happen against a legit offense two games ago when they allowed 41 points and 396 total yards to the Ravens.  The Falcons won't have that kind of success, but they will have enough to get us up and OVER this short total of 44.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

5* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Denver Broncos ML -128

I cashed in the Broncos +9 in their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs last week.  It was the type of gut-wrenching loss that I think sometimes beats a team twice, and as a result I didn't expect to be on the Broncos this week.  But I like the quotes coming out of their locker room off the loss, and once I saw the injury report for Atlanta, I have to be on the Broncos this week.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 on the season and still in great position to make the playoffs, but this feels like a must-win, so they should have no problem getting over the loss. to KC last week.  Atlanta has a commanding lead in the NFC South and won't be playing with as much urgency this week sitting at 6-4 on the season.

"This team has been resilient.  The sky isn't falling," head coach Sean Payton said. "We're sitting here 5-5 and we would've loved to be 6-4 with a win, but the focus shifts quickly to the next game.  I like the leadership on this time.  It's entirely different than it was a year ago.  It's tough mentally and physically, and we've got a good week of practice coming up before Atlanta."

The Broncos are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Chiefs in their previous game.  So, they haven't had letdowns in this spot previously, and they won't be having one Sunday, either.

This Denver offense has been trending up under rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win. Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.  The Saints upset the Falcons 20-17 at home despite all their injuries both on offense and on defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

While the Falcons have a great offense, I think the Broncos can hold them in check.  Denver is basically fully healthy on both sides of the football, and this defense has been the backbone of the team.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 5th in total defense at 295.7 points per game.  They rank 1st at 5.0 yards per play allowed.

Both teams will get their points, especially Denver, but this game will be decided by the Broncos getting more stops than this decimated Atlanta defense.  I really like the Broncos, and I really like the OVER in this game this week due to those Atlanta injuries.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 48

The San Francisco 49ers just got their full compliment of weapons back last week coming out of their bye.  They got Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and JaJuan Jenning all back from injury against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Those three combined for 276 of their 413 yards from scrimmage to show their importance to this team.  This 49ers offense is one of the best in the NFL when healthy, and that hasn't been the case for much of the season, and they are still putting up some of the best numbers in the league.

The 49ers rank 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.8 yards per play trailing only the potent Baltimore Ravens in both categories.  They have been able to score at will on Seattle for years as they just have their number, and they will be able to pretty much name their number against Seattle again.

The 49ers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four meetings with Seattle.  They beat the Seahawks 36-24 in their first meeting this season for 60 combined points, and a similar shootout will be the result in the rematch.  The 49ers had 483 total yards in that win.

Reinforcements are on the way for Seattle on offense now as well.  They had a bye last week, and DK Metcalf was close to coming back before the bye, and now he should be 100% coming out of the bye.  Metcalf means everything to this Seattle offense with his ability to stretch the field.  He has 568 receiving yards in basically just six games of action while averaging 16.2 per reception.

Geno Smith was lost the last two games without Metcalf against the Bills and Rams.  He will be much more comfortable this week.  He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 9th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 10th at 5.9 yards per play.  Geno threw for 312 yards in that first meeting with the 49ers and the Seahawks found a lot of success once they went up-tempo, which is something they may look to deploy again in the rematch.  That would benefit the OVER.

The 49ers just aren't as dominant defensively as they have been in the past, and Nick Bosa has been a non-factor for much of the season.  The Seahawks haven't lived up to the hype defensively this season with Mike McDonald.  They have allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games and an average of 29.7 points per game during this stretch.  

I just don't think McDonald has the right players to run what he wants to run, and he even just cut his leading tackler in LB Tyrel Dodson.  The 49ers aren't the offense to get right against defensively coming out of their bye week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Green Bay Packers -6

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week and should be basically fully healthy for the first time this season.  They are expected to get both CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams back from injury on defense this week, and they are one of the better defenses in the NFL when fully healthy.

Jordan Love returned early from a groin injury against the Lions and threw a costly pick-6 in a misleading 24-14 loss to the Lions going into the bye.  The Packers outgained the Lions 411 to 261 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Love should be much healthier and get back to being his mobile self coming out of the bye.

But as much as I'm buying on the Packers coming off their bye, I'm selling on the Chicago Bears right now.  This organization is a mess right now, and head coach Eberflus is losing the locker room.  Clearly receivers aren't happy with Caleb Williams, most notably DJ Moore, and Williams is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league that is also banged up.

The Bears haven't scored a TD in 23 straight possessions on offense.  Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times this season including 9 times last week by the Patriots alone.  The Bears were missing five starters along the offensive line at one point in that New England game due to injury.  They managed just 142 total yards against New England.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary in a 18-15 loss at Washington coming out of their bye week.  They didn't do anything in that game offensively until the 4th quarter as they were shut out in the first three quarters.  They went on to lose 29-9 at Arizona and 19-3 at home to the Patriots, part of their 23 straight possessions without an offensive TD.  Now they have to take a step up in class here against the Packers, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Packers are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bears with all 10 wins coming by 7 points or more.  Green Bay is 30-12-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings dating back further.  Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 (60%) ATS since 2004.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +4

The New York Jets continue to take money week after week and it makes no sense.  The Jets are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against a hobbled Houston Texans team.  The losses are the most concerning.

The Jets lost last week 31-6 at Arizona despite going off as 2-point favorites.  They lost 25-22 at New England as 7-point favorites.  They lost 37-15 at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites the game prior.  They have gotten worse since firing head coach Robert Saleh, especially defensively.  Giving up 37 points to Pittsburgh and 25 to New England is bad, and they allowed 31 points and 406 total yards to Arizona last week.  Most of that was done in the first three quarters at it was 31-6 Arizona with 4:13 left in the 3rd and it remained that way only after the Cardinals called off the dogs.

This New York offense is broken, too.  The Jets managed just 207 total yards on a suspect Arizona defense last week despite trailing from the jump and being in catch up mode the entire time.  Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons, but the problem is the banged up offensive line that cannot protect him.  The Jets are missing four offensive linemen and three more are banged up and possibly will try to play through injury.  What a mess.

While the Jets are all but eliminated from playoff contention at 3-7, the Colts sit at 4-6 and still very much alive as that one game difference is huge in the AFC.  They have new life going back to Anthony Richardson at QB this week after Joe Flacco clearly was not the answer.  I think having the last two weeks off will do Richardson a lot of good and allow him to correct mistakes.

The Colts are a much healthier team than the Jets.  They get WR Michael Pittman back this week and are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Bernhard Raimann.  They are also fully healthy on defense for basically the first time this season with only LB EJ Speed questionable.

After losses by 8 at Minnesota and by 10 at home to Buffalo this week, the Colts will be happy to take a big step down in class this week against the Jets.  That was a misleading final against the Bills, who scored a defensive TD and only outgained the Colts by 44 yards.  They benefited from four Indianapolis turnovers.

Look for the Colts to go run-heavy here with the read-option with dual-threat Richardson to take advantage of a very bad New York run defense.  The Jets have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.  They really missed MLB CJ Mosely, the leader of their defense who remains out.  Their defense hasn't been the same since losing him.  Look for a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and Richardson on the ground as the Colts keep this game close for four quarters and likely pull off the upset.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 46

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only faced Lamar Jackson once in their last five meetings with the Ravens either due to Jackson being injured or Baltimore resting its starters.  They're going to have to face the NFL MVP Sunday, and they aren't going to enjoy the experience.

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 1st in scoring at 31.8 points per game, 1st in total offense at 440.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,120 yards and 12 TD.

The Steelers have a great defense, but they have also benefited from playing the league's 6th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.  The Ravens will be far and away the best offense they have faced yet, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  The Steelers just lost one of their best pass rushers in LB Alex Highsmith last week to injury, and he is out for this one.  Not having him is a big blow to their defense.

The Steelers have taken off offensively since switching to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Steelers last three games overall as they put up 37 points and 409 total yards on the Jets, 26 points and 426 total yards on the Giants and 28 points and 312 total yards on the Commanders.  The Steelers now have a downfield passing game with Wilson, and he has ample weapons with George Pickens leading the way plus the addition of Mike Williams.

The Steelers are capable of keeping up with the Ravens in a shootout and they are going to be forced to do just that, because the Ravens are going to get their points.  The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 294.9 passing yards per game and 29th at 7.4 yards per attempt.  SS Kyle Hamilton is their most important player in the secondary and he is hobbled with an ankle injury.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable as the Ravens are getting very thin on the defensive line.

These games between the Ravens and Steelers have been low-scoring in the pass largely because both were missing their starting QB's due to either rest or injury.  That's has been especially the case with Lamar Jackson, who has missed four of the last five meetings. But both teams are in the best shape they have been in a long time at the QB position coming into this one now.  I think the series history is keeping this total lower than it should be.  This has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 ATS as well when you dig into the box scores.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants in their next game.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  Their 37-17 dismantling of Cincinnati on the road might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

I was on the Eagles -7 in their 28-23 win over the Jaguars two weeks ago.  It was probably my worst beat of the season.  The Eagles led 22-0 and were cruising until a fluke fumble by Saquan Barkley that was caused by the ground was returned for a TD.  The Jaguars got in the back door despite the Eagles outgaining them 447 to 215, or by 232 total yards.  Last week the Eagles made easy work of the Cowboys winning 34-6 on the road and outgaining them 348 to 146, or by 202 total yards.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  They recently got TE Dallas Goedert back from injury and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now on both sides of the football.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.

The Eagles are allowing just 198.8 yards per game in their last five games, which is unheard of in today's NFL.  The defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in those five games.  The offense is averaging 380.6 yards per game during this same stretch, so they are outgaining opponents by 182 yards per game.

While the Eagles are fresh having already had their bye week plus blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday putting in little effort, this is a tired Washington Commanders team that hasn't had their bye week yet.  They have played three straight one-score games with their hail mary win against the Bears three weeks ago and their 27-22 win at the Giants two weeks ago, and those performances haven't aged well.  

The Commanders were in a dog fight last week in a 28-27 loss to the Steelers, which was also a very physical game.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Eagles this week.  They have three starting offensive linemen questionable, their starting RB questionable, two starters on D questionable, and K Austin Seibert out. I like this Commanders team and have bet them several times, but this is the spot to fade them as they are tired, on a short week, and with a first-year head coach and a rookie QB.  Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Washington with all five wins by 3 points or more.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50.5

Having a healthy Tua Tagovailoa on the field makes all the difference for this Miami offense.  That has played out the last two weeks as they put up 27 points and 377 total yards against the Cardinals in his return two weeks ago, and then 27 points and 373 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense as well.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

Given the current health of both of these offenses, I expect both to have their way with these suspect opposing defenses.  The Dolphins just gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 30 points to the Bills in their last two games.  The Rams have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine games, including 24 or more six times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML -130

I've backed the Rams with success in each of their last two games and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

This Los Angeles defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Rams have held their last three opponents to an average of 18.3 points per game.  They held the Vikings to just 276 total yards in their last home game which is no small feat considering all of their weapons.  I like the way this Los Angeles defense is trending much more than that of the Dolphins.

Yes, the Dolphins have a much better offense with Tua Tagovailoa back and healthy, but they still managed to lose their last two games.  They lost 28-27 at home to Arizona in his return two weeks ago, and they lost 30-27 at Buffalo last week.  That game against Buffalo was really their 'last stand' in trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They now sit at just 2-6 on the season, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the mindset of this Rams team a lot more right now.  They gutted out two huge wins against the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now trail the Cardinals by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the NFC West.  The Cardinals are underdogs to the Jets this week, so they could find themselves in 1st place with a win.  The Rams also have a huge advantage at head coach with Sean McVay over Mike McDaniels.  Bet the Rams on the Money Line Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Texans OVER 48

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses since losing by far their best defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson.  Their defense hasn't totally been exposed yet due to circumstance, but they will get exposed by the Houston Texans tonight and will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout indoors in perfect conditions.

The Lions rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.2 points per game and 4th averaging 6.3 yards per play.  But defensively they rank just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

The Texans will be without their best pass rusher in Will Anderson.  The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  They will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Detroit Lions are going to be completely contained.  This is just a very low total for a game involving these two teams in their current state right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions.  They have been covering machines since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell teams up.  But now you are paying a tax to back them this week as they are 5-point road favorites on the opener against the Houston Texans, which I grabbed Sunday night.  I still like them down to the current line of +3.5 as I think the Texans can win this game outright.

While the Lions have a great offense, they have a defense that has been exposed due to all their injuries, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard yet.  Detroit ranks just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without their most important defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, and more times than not teams are going to turn those yards into points.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Lions, who sit in 1st place in the NFC North and  1st place in the NFC after a huge 24-14 win at Green Bay last week.  They also beat the Vikings and the Cowboys on the road recently.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ready to get knocked off their pedestal.  It was a misleading win over the Packers to boot because they were outgained by 150 yards by the Packers.  But the difference in the game was a bad pick-6 by a hobbled Jordan Love when he was trying to avoid a sack in the rain.

The spot is a great one for the Texans.  They are motivated coming off a road loss to the Jets, and that was on Thursday Night Football last week.  So they have had a mini-bye to get healthy and refocused, and they needed to get healthy especially on offense at receivers and along the offensive line.  They should be fully healthy on defense as well with the exception of DE Will Anderson.  I love the spot for them this week.  Bet the Texans Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in scoring at 29.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 392.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't seen an offense as good as Washington yet.

But the Commanders have a leaky defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They traded for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he isn't going to play this week due to a hamstring injury.  The Steelers should be able to keep pace with the Commanders in a shootout Sunday.

I'm 'buying' on this Pittsburgh offense with Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall, the last two the most impressive with Wilson at the helm.  He led them to a 37-15 win over the Jets and 52 combined points and followed it up with a 26-18 win over the Giants and 44 combined points.

The Steelers had 409 total yards against a very good Jets' defense.  Wilson threw for 264 yards and 2 TD while opening things up for Najee Harris, who rushed for 102 yards and a score.  The Steelers had another 426 total yards against the Giants last time out.  Wilson threw for 278 yards and a score and Harris rushed for 114 yards in the win.

Washington and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in seven of its nine games this season.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Commanders, especially when you consider just how much better this Pittsburgh offense has been with Wilson at QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +9

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season and the last unbeaten team remaining in the NFL.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We have seen that play out in recent weeks as the Chiefs haven't been able to cover these large numbers.

The Chiefs beat a decimated, struggling Raiders team 27-20 on the road as 8.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  Last week they needed OT to beat an even more decimated Bucs team that was missing their top three receivers.  They won 30-24 (OT) as 8.5-point favorites.

Now the Chiefs are on a short week after playing on Monday and a tired team coming off an OT game.  Teams coming off OT games who are playing on 8 or fewer days' rest are 107-140 SU & 108-136-3 ATS over the last decade.  Teams playing on just six days of rest coming off an OT game on MNF are 17-21 SU & 15-23 ATS during this same time frame.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Denver Broncos coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league.  It was a bit of a misleading loss as the Broncos consistently marched into Baltimore territory but didn't get much out of it.  They were only outgained by 77 yards by the Ravens.

Keep in mind the Broncos had gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games prior to losing to Baltimore with their lone loss coming by 7 points to the Chargers, who were off a bye week and much healthier.  Four of their five wins during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in Kansas City, who they have played very tough in recent meetings.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three of the four losses coming by 6 points or less.

Bo Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.  Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS in road/neutral games as a head coach.  Payton is also 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog.  The Chiefs have been terrible as a favorite of -7 or more in the Mahomes era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they aren't going to be all that motivated this week as they are 'fat and happy' at 8-0 right now.  They also have a huge game against the Bills on deck next week that they could be looking ahead to.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers -6

This is an eerily similar spot to last year when the 49ers had lost three straight games going into their bye week thanks to injuries.  It was one of my biggest plays of the season on the 49ers last year as they were getting healthy coming out of their bye getting Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all back from injury.  The 49ers delivered with a 34-3 win at Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

Now the 49ers return from their bye week expected to get back three of their best offensive weapons in McCaffrey, Deebo and JaJuan Jennings.  That's big because they lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury.  Jennings was making a bunch of plays before going down with injury, and CMC is worth about as much to the spread as any RB in the NFL.  Deebo does what he does making plays at receiver and out of the backfield.

The healthy 49ers team is a dangerous one, and they will be as healthy as they have been at any point this season coming out of their bye week.  I believe they can beat anybody in their current state, and I certainly think they'll make easy work of this short-handed Tampa Bay Bucs team that is not only extremely banged up, but also at a big rest disadvantage.

The Bucs will have to try and get back up off the mat on a short week after losing in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.  They gave it a valiant effort, but came up just short against the defending champs.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and their defense has to be gassed after the Chiefs got the ball first in OT and matriculated the ball down the field for the game-winning score.

The Bucs haven't gotten a bye yet this season and are a tired team with the injuries piling up.  They have an extremely suspect defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 39th in total defense at 386.7 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Bucs have allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five games.

While the Bucs have been short-handed on defense due to injuries for most of the season, the offense is in even worse shape right now injury-wise.  They lost their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two weeks ago.  Godwin is out for the season and Evans is unlikely to return this week.  No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan missed the game Monday and is questionable to return.  No. 5 receiver Sterling Shepard is questionable.  They could be without four of their top five receivers, plus QB Baker Mayfield misses practice on Wednesday with a toe injury, though I expect he will go.

With all these injuries, it's no wonder the Bucs are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the short-handed Saints.  It's going to get worse before it gets better until they get some of these key guys back from injury.  I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive against a healthy, rested and motivated San Francisco team this week.  

The 49ers are 4-4 right now and chasing the Cardinals in a tight NFC West race.  They have no margin for error now.  But despite all their injuries up to this point, the 49ers still have some of the best numbers in the NFL.  They are 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 314.8 yards per game.  They are nearly outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the season.  They really should be 6-2 or better right now, but their 4-4 record has them undervalued.  

Road favorites off a bye have been a huge money maker for years in the NFL.  Road favorites off a bye have covered the spread 60.4% of the time since 2004.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS thus far this season, and they will remain perfect courtesy of a San Francisco blowout in this one.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 52

The Baltimore Ravens are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with 45 or more combined points in all nine games, including 51 or more combined points in five consecutive games.

The Ravens have one of the best offenses in NFL history.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 445.9 yards per game and 1st at 7.3 yards per play.  To average 6.5 yards per play is elite in the NFL, and they are averaging way more than that despite being a run-heavy team averaging 5.9 per carry on 33 attempts per game.

Teams can continue to come back on the Ravens because the weakness of their team is their secondary.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL against the pass, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game.  They are also 28th allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

Now they face a pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.  Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 TD in leading the Bengals to a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week that saw 65 combined points.

Baltimore won 41-38 (OT) for 79 combined points in an absolute shootout against the Bengals in their first meeting this season.  The Ravens racked up 520 total yards on this soft Cincinnati defense and will have another big game in the rematch.  Burrow threw for 392 yards and 5 TD to go toe-for-toe with Lamar Jackson and company in that first meeting.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 51 or more combined points in all three.  It will be more of the same here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week.

We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch.  He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season.  Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco.

The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season.  They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week.  Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks.  Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw.

The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL.  They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays.  And now even more reinforcements are on the way.

The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game.  TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well.  Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD.  This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out.  They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games.  The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season.  They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot.  This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1.

It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November.  But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota.  This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1

I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings.  I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons.

They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1.  They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense.  I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go.

As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much.  Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs.  So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.  They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest.  They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week.

The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf.  Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury.  There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football.

The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week.  The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week.  Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5

I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play.  I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since.  I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored.

Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors.  Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors.  Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.  Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements.

The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week.  They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns.  They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season.  This is the game his loss is finally felt.  They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez.

The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries.  They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love.

Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries.  Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.  The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games.

While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL.  They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London.  They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers.  But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers.  They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury.  Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week.  They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week.  And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week.

So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries.  And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.

The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo.  They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London.  I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42

The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week.  There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.

This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks.  They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert.  They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.

I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker.  They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week.  He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett.  Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense.  The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore.  Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception.

Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season.  Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't.  That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is.  But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable.  They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.  Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them.

I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week.  Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out.  

I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time.  This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams.  We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK

The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them.  I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it.

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate.  Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum.  That's why they are changing kickers this week.  Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots.  They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them.

While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense.  They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week.  Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed.  Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside.

The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets.  CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks.  He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers.  Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season.

The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game.  With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season.  Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme.  

Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long.  I expect him and the Jets to get right this week.  Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots.  This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled.  Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot.  

The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division.  The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season.  Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6

The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season.  I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it.

While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road.  They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time.  They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game.

Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh.  While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.

The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week.  Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week.

But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least.  The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play.  Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson.  The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again.

The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week.  They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas.  Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful.

The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig.  Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line.  They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively.

Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week.  The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team.  Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Giants Monday.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5.5

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They will be pissed off from their 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions who were off a bye and out for revenge last time out.  Now it's the Cowboys who will be pissed off, out for revenge and off a bye this week.

The Cowboys have had this game circled all offseason after losing each of their last three meetings with the 49ers including two in the playoffs.  But now it's the Cowboys who will be a lot healthier coming out of their bye, while the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries.

This 49ers lost their best receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week in their 28-18 loss to the Chiefs.  Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were hurt against the Chiefs as well and both are highly questionable to play in this game.  They were already without WR JuJuan Jennings and remain without him this week.  It's safe to say Brock Purdy's options are receiver are limited, and it helps explain his recent struggles after throwing 3 INT's to the Chiefs last week.

The 49ers had to face the Chiefs off their bye and now they have to face the Cowboys off their bye.  Schedule makers have done them no favors.  The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in road games with a 33-17 win at Cleveland, a 20-15 win at New York and a 20-17 win at Pittsburgh.  That win at Pittsburgh two games ago looks even better now, and it also came on Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to give the 49ers a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Denver Broncos -9.5

I locked in the Broncos -9.5 as soon as I found out Bryce Young would be starting for the Panthers this week.  You can still find a -9.5 at Circa, but I would still play this up to -10.  I hate laying big numbers in the NFL, but this has blowout written all over it.

I was on the Broncos last week when they blasted the Saints 33-10 on Thursday night football. That one looked obvious with all the injuries to the Saints, but the line still only closed Broncos -2.5.  This one looks obvious as well, but sometimes the obvious wins in the NFL.

The Panthers are the dregs of the NFL.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS with all six losses coming by double-digits.  But that doesn't even begin to explain how bad this team has been.  They are 28th in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game and 32nd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game.  They are getting outscored by 19 points per game on the season.

Their offense was at least respectable with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but it has no shot of succeeding with Bryce Young.  We saw that in the first two games of the season as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 with Young at quarterback.  Dalton suffered an injured thumb in a car accident this week and that's the only reason Young is starting.

But this Carolina defense is equally as bad as the offense.  The Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 37 points per game.  It was really bad last week because the Commanders kept piling on the points with Marcus Mariota at quarterback once Jayden Daniels left with an injury.

The amount of players lost to injury on this Carolina defense is like nothing I've ever seen before in the NFL.  They have 8 players on IR, 2 players out, and another 7 players questionable.  That's 17 defenders on the injury report with 10 of them for sure out.  It's easy to see why this Carolina defense has been one of the worst we've ever seen.

Bo Nix has been at his best this season when the ground game is working and he can use his mobility on play-action.  The Broncos rushed for 225 yards on the Saints last week, and they are going to get 200-plus against the Panthers this week as well so they should be able to continue piling on the points in the 2H.  Carolina ranks dead last against the run allowing 162.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Denver has one of the best.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 15.1 points per game, 3rd in total defense allowing 282.4 yards per game and 1st allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They also get Patrick Surtain II back from a concussion this week, and he is arguably the top corner in the entire NFL.  Carolina will be missing WR Diontae Johnson, WR Adam Thielen and RB Jonathan Brooks on offense due to injury.

Denver also has the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go.  I don't foresee them having a letdown this week, which is what it would take for them to not win by double-digits.  Even then it still might not be enough.  The Panthers are hot garbage with Bryce Young at quarterback.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Bills/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket between the Bills and Seahawks Sunday afternoon.  There is a 99% chance of rain with 17 MPH sustained winds in Seattle and gusts up to 35 MPH.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for these two teams.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 19.4 points per game.  Their job is going to be much easier this week not having to deal with Seattle's best weapon in DK Metcalf, who suffered a knee injury against the Falcons last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Seattle also has a banged-up offensive line and one of the worst units in the NFL.

What makes me really like this UNDER is the improvement of this Seattle defensive under head coach Mike McDonald, the former Ravens' defensive coordinator.  There were a banged up unit for much of the season, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season.  CB Riq Woolen makes his return this week, and CB Tre Brown is trending toward playing as well.  They traded for LB Ernest Jones IV last week as well.

We saw the Seahawks come up big in limiting the Falcons to 14 points last week indoors.  They forced three turnovers and they make Kirk Cousins look very average as he had one of his worst games of the season after previously lighting it up for multiple weeks.  McDonald will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Josh Allen, who had his worst game of the season scoring just 10 points against Baltimore earlier this season, which is a amateur version of McDonald's scheme.

This total is simply too high for this forecast and these two average offenses up against these two improving defenses.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Packers OVER 48.5

The Green Bay Packers have taken off offensively since Jordan Love returned to the lineup.  They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 6th in total offense at 383.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.

The Packers should name their number against an awful Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in scoring at 27.7 points per game, 27th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars have been going heavy man-to-man defense this season and they just don't have the right pieces.  Love is going to torch their man-to-man scheme with all of his weapons.

Jacksonville has been respectable on offense this season ranking 13th at 5.8 yards per play and 16th at 325.9 yards per game.  But they haven't been fully healthy until now as they have both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis back.  They combine with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Christian Kirk to form one of the best set of weapons in the entire NFL.

The Jaguars are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because the Packers are going to get their points.  Green Bay could be without two starters in LB Quay Walker (concussion) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), who are both questionable.  Either way, conditions are perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no run, and I think that's precisely what we get.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cardinals/Dolphins OVER 45.5

This Miami offense has been atrocious with backup QB's Huntley, Thompson and Boyle trying to fill the massive shoes left by Tua Tagovailoa.  But now Tagovailoa returns to what is a fully healthy Miami offense this week, and the Dolphins are now primed for their best offensive performance of the season.

This total is suppressed due to the Dolphins going under the total in five of their six games this season.  To that point, the total is also suppressed due to the Cardinals going 2-0-1 to the under in their last three games as well.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.

The Dolphins will have their best offensive output of the season against an Arizona defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.4 points per game, 28th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They just lost their best pass-rusher to injury last week, have four defensive linemen on IR now, plus DT Ray Lopez has been ruled out.  The Dolphins will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, and  starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out as well.

I don't think this Miami defense is as good as the numbers show.  The Dolphins have benefited from getting to face Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson in their last three games.  This is a big step up in class for them having to face the electric Kyler Murray and a very healthy Arizona offense.  The Cardinals rank 11th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Plus, the Dolphins suffered a blow in practice this week when starting DE Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone and may need surgery.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

The Indianapolis Colts have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as the best covering team in the NFL.  All three of their losses came by 6 points or less, and all four of their wins came by 6 points or less as well.  They just have a knack for playing in close games.

The same can be said for the Houston Texans, who are 5-2 SU this season with five of their seven games being decided by 6 points or less.  They were blown out 34-7 at Minnesota and the blew out New England 41-21 in Drake Maye's first career start.

The Colts have played this well despite being one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  But they are now about as healthy as they have been all season, and they get two of their best players back from injury this week.  RB Jonathan Taylor is back on offense while DT DeForest Buckner returns from IR.  Those two are huge for this team.

Speaking of injury-ravaged, the Texans are without two key defensive starters in LB Azeez Al-Shaiir and S Jimmie Ward, plus LB Henry To'oTo'o is questionable after missing last week.  But the biggest blow is on offense, where top receiver Nico Collins remains out.

Collins is far and away CJ Stroud's favorite target, and their offensive success has been night and day with him on or off the field in Stroud's career.  In fact, the Texans are just 5-12 SU in their 17 games in which Collins has received one target or fewer.  Stroud looked lost without him last week, throwing for just 86 yards on 21 attempts against the Packers.  The Texans were +3 in turnovers and still lost that game 24-22 to the Packers.

The Colts want revenge not only from their 23-19 loss to the Texans in Week 18 last year that kept them out of the playoffs, but also their 29-27 loss to the Texans in Week 1 this season.  This has been a closely-contested series that the Colts have actually dominated.

In fact, the Colts haven't lost by more than 6 points to the Texans in any of their last 25 meetings! That makes for a 25-0 system backing the Colts pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  This one will go down to the wire as well, and Indianapolis is a very live underdog this week.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ravens/Browns OVER 44.5

The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL and it's not even closer.  They rank 1st in total offense at 461.4 yards per game and 1st at 7.4 yards per play.  They are also 2nd in scoring at 31.1 points per game.  They are going to get their 30-plus, and the Browns are primed for their best offensive performance of the season to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout Sunday.

The Browns have been held to 20 points or fewer in every game this season.  Just when their offensive line started to get healthy, QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week.  Then QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson got hurt, and third-string QB Jameis Winston led them on a TD drive to cut the deficit to 21-14 against the Bengals.

The fans and the media have been calling for Winston all season.  We saw what the Browns did last year with Joe Flacco earning Comeback Player of the Year by leading them to the playoffs after Watson got hurt.  I think Winston is capable of following in Flacco's footsteps.  He has a lot of boom or bust to him like Flacco, and he is great at stretching the field and testing all areas of an opposing defense.

This Cleveland offense has only one way to go which is up.  It looks like they should have four of their five starting offensive linemen healthy, which hasn't been the case all season.  RB Nick Chubb just returned from injury last week and should get more reps this week.

Defensive injuries are a big part of the story here too.  The Browns will be wihtout MLB Jordan Hicks.  The Ravens are likely to be without their best CB Marlon Humphrey, who suffered a knee injury last week against the Bucs.  Fellow starting CB Nate Wiggins is questionable, as is his backup in CB Jalyn Armous-Davis.  DT Travis Jones is questionable as well.

The biggest weakness of this entire Baltimore defense is their secondary as you can pass on them, which makes this a great matchup for Winston and company.  The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL allowing 287.1 passing yards per game and 28th at 7.5 yards per pass attempt.  They are going to be even worse without Humphrey this week.  

The OVER is 6-1 in Ravens seven games this season with 45 or more combined points in all seven, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  This total is too low for a game involving the Ravens.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier.  They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals.  Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road.

The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division.  They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright.

This is a tough spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game.  This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well.

Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season.  They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury.  Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2.  I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers just had a bye two weeks ago and got a ton of players back from injury.  They promptly jumped out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos in their first game back from the bye and coasted to victory in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Now they remain fresh, and we are getting them at a great value Monday night as only 2.5-point favorites over the dreadful Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a tired team that looks lost right now.  They'll be playing for a 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and their lone win over the 49ers was an absolute fluke.  They came back from a 23-10 halftime deficit as the 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot in the 2nd half.

The three losses came 34-13 at Green Bay, 42-14 at home to Washington and 20-13 at home to the Lions.  Kyler Murray and the offense are stuck in the mud, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game allowed, 27th in total defense at 373.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Chargers have a massive edge defensively as they rank 1st in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.2 yards per game.  Jim Harbaugh always has a good defense everywhere he goes, and he has turned this Chargers stop unit into one of the league's best in his first season.

The offense got a healthy Justin Herbert and both his starting tackles back last week and it made a big difference.  Los Angeles is a run-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing.  That makes this a bad matchup for Arizona, which ranks 29th against the run allowing 153.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.  Things will come easy for the Chargers offensively, and nothing will come easy for Kyler Murray and company.

The Cardinals are really banged up with four starters questionable on offense and four starters questionable on defense, plus another five defenders on IR.  The Chargers will wear the Cardinals down with their rushing attack and be able to get the necessary first downs late in this game to preserve the win and cover.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Ravens/Bucs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Monday night against two defenses that are vulnerable to their opponents' strengths.  This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout with no rain, less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's Monday night in Tampa Bay.

The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL rank 1st in total offense at 453.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.1 yards per play.  The Buccaneers rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  Both teams are almost fully healthy on offense right now as well.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 205.3 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The Ravens are going to be able to get whatever they want against this banged-up Tampa Bay defense, which allows 23.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense nearly as potent as Baltimore yet.  The Bucs allowed 27 points to the Saints and all their backups last week after allowing 36 points and 550 total yards to the Falcons the week prior.

No question the Ravens have a solid defense, but they are just 23rd in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Where they have been particularly poor is against the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 26th in the NFL.  That makes this a great matchup for Baker Mayfield and this pass-heavy Tampa Bay offense.

The OVER is 5-1 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in all six, including 49 or more in four of the last five.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs last three games overall with 49, 66 and 78 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Raiders/Rams Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

I grabbed the Rams -5 on Sunday night loving the spot for this team and anticipating they would get bet.  Well, as of this writing they are up to 7-point favorites now against the Raiders, and I obviously agree with the move.  This one has blowout written all over it.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

Reinforcements are on the way now as the Rams had a much-needed bye last week, and they will be looking at this as a brand new season moving forward.  Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week and could return.  RT Joe Notebloom is off IR and back to practice and could return.  The defense is almost fully healthy now and should be one of the most improved units in the league the rest of the way.

But this is as much a fade of the Raiders as it is a play on the Rams.  The Raiders are lost right now.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with a 19-point home loss to the Steelers, a 16-point road loss to the Broncos and a 14-point home loss to the Panthers.  Their lone win came at home against the hapless Browns during this stretch.

The Raiders just traded WR Devante Adams to the Jets earlier this week, signaling that their season is over.  DE Maxx Crosby has yet to practice this week and may not play, especially since he is so close to Adams.  RB Zamir White, WR Jakobi Meyers and RG Dylan Parham are all questionable on offense.  DT John Jenkins, LB Tommy Eichenberg and CB Jack Jones are all questionable along with Crosby.  Five other defenders are already on IR.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and now limited weapons outside TE Brock Bowers to get the ball to.

Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams should have a huge day against a Raiders defense that allows 140.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry to take some pressure off of Stafford, and the Rams are at their best when they can run the football.  I obviously got a good line here at -5, but would still play the Rams up to -7 and throw them in some teasers at that number.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Commanders OVER 51

Both the Panthers and Commanders are dead nuts OVER teams.  Carolina is 4-0 OVER since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback with 58 or more combined points in three of them.  Washington is 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 53 or more combined points in four of them.

Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 378 yards per game and 5th at 6.4 yards per play.  Jayden Daniels is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for good reason as he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 75.3% of his passes and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns.

Daniels and company should score at will against a Carolina defense that may be the worst in the entire NFL.  The Panthers rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 33.8 points per game this season.  They have allowed 34, 36 and 38 points the last three weeks.

Injuries to their defense is a big reason why as they have 10 defenders on IR and another 7 listed as questionable heading into this game.  They have been decimated on that side of the ball.  They will be facing a Washington offense that is basically fully healthy and should get RB Brian Robinson back this week.

Andy Dalton has at least made this Carolina offense respectable averaging 22.5 points per game in his four starts.  He'll be up against a poor Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Commanders are also 29th allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, so the Panthers should have plenty of success on the ground behind Chubba Hubbard.

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Commanders defensively as they just lost their best defensive lineman in Jonathan Allen to a season-ending injury in allowing 30 points and 484 total yards to the Ravens last week.  Another five defensive starters are listed as questionable heading into this one as well.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and, 3 MPH winds and zero chance of rain.  I've been riding OVERS in Carolina and Washington games in recent weeks, and now they meet up and I'm definitely not passing up this opportunity.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Seahawks/Falcons OVER 48.5

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a really banged up defense missing several key players on their defensive line and in the secondary.  But their offense is good enough to go score for score with almost anyone, and they're going to have to try and do that in the dome in Atlanta Sunday.

The Seahawks allowed 36 points and 483 total yards to the 49ers last week, 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team that was without two of its best weapons in WR Nabers and RB Singletary two weeks ago, and 42 points to the Lions three weeks ago.

It won't get any easier for this Seattle defense going up against an Atlanta offense that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Falcons put up 36 points and 550 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 38 points and 423 total yards on the Panthers last week.  Kirk Cousins is showing he's still got it, and he has ample weapons to get the ball to.

Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in pass rush and just cannot get to opposing quarterbacks.  Despite a shaky offensive line, Geno Smith is going to have all day to pick apart their defense.  The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in five consecutive games, including 30 to the Bucs in their last home game.  Geno Smith has his full compliment of weapons healthy right now as their offense is very healthy as a whole.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4.5

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and they are about as healthy as they have been all season now with the exception of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But Tyler Huntley was brought in to replace him and started the same week he was brought in in a loss to the Titans.  He was much better in a 15-10 win at New England in his second start, and now with two full weeks to get accustomed to Mike McDaniels' offense, he is primed for his best game yet.

That's especially the case considering he takes a big step down in class here against a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, plus one that is dealing with a ton of injuries.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense at 389.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 31st against the run allowing 155.2 rushing yards per game.  The Dolphins will go with a run-heavy approach, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rush for 200-plus yards in this one with all their weapons in Achane and Mostert healthy, plus Huntley being a dual-threat.

What has gone unnoticed for the Dolphins is just how good their defense has been this season.  They rank 5th in total defense allowing just 285.4 yards per game.  The Colts are making a mistake going from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  They have played their best this season with Flacco, and Richardson is too much boom or bust with his inaccuracy as a passer.  Four key players on offense are all questionable in RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce and C Ryan Kelly.

The Dolphins were just 2.5-point home favorites over the Titans two games ago.  The Colts were just 2.5-point road dogs to the Titans last week.  As you can see, there's clearly value in getting the Dolphins at +4.5 this week based on those recent lines against a common opponent.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Colts are a tired team playing six straight one-score games to open the season, while the Dolphins are fresh and off a bye.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Green Bay Packers are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Jordan Love back fully healthy and with his full compliment of weapons.  The Packers have five offensive players on the injury report but all five practiced on Thursday, which is a good sign they are good to go.

The Packers scored 29 points on the Vikings, 24 on the Rams and then 34 on the Cardinals last week in Love's three starts back from injury.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Cardinals last week.  Love threw for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns.  This is one of the best offenses in the league when fully healthy.

The Texans allowed Drake Maye to throw 3 touchdown passes on them in his first career start last week.  Their defense is extremely banged up right now with five starters missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday in DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, LB To'oto'o, S Ward and CB Lassiter.  Plus, DT Mario Edwards was just suspended and will miss this game.  The Packers should be able to name their number Sunday.

The Texans are overvalued due to their 5-1 start this season.  They could easily be 3-3 instead or worse.  Four of their five wins came by 6 points or fewer and a total of 15 points.  The lone blowout came against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Patriots last week.

We saw what happened when the Texans hit the road and took a step up in class earlier this season in their lone loss.  They fell 34-7 to Minnesota, which is the same Minnesota team Green Bay took to the wire a few weeks ago in a 31-29 defeat.  Keep in mind the Texans actually had Nico Collins in that game, and now he is out with injury.  He is easily their best receiver with 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD despite missing one game.  They need him to beat a team like Green Bay, and couple that with all their defensive injuries, and I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and it's worth a full 3 points in my opinion.  Considering the Packers are the better, healthier team right now, they should be more than 2.5-point favorites at home this week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* Broncos/Saints ATS ANNIHILATOR on Denver ML -125

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

The Broncos are capable of putting up a big number against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.

The reason I added the Broncos on the money line was the injury report for the Saints.  It's as bad as it gets, and New Orleans legitimately is the worst team in the NFL this week with the players they will be putting on the field.  

They are without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.  RG Caesar Ruiz is out as is C Erik McCoy.  Both QB Derek Carr and TE Taysom Hill have been ruled out.  Spencer Rattler will have his hands full going up against a Denver defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring at 16.0 points per game and 4th in total defense at 284.3 yards per game.  They will be without star CB Patrick Surtain II, but they are still good enough to hold Rattler and company in check.

I expect the Broncos to win somewhere in the 31-17 range, which will easily get us a win on them and the OVER.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Broncos/Saints Total DOMINATOR on OVER 36.5

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

Scoring is up in the NFL right now, and this is about as short a total as you will see in the NFL.  Especially for a game played inside a dome in perfect conditions.  I understand the reasons to be hesitant about these two offenses, but I think they can both have enough success against these two defenses to get up and over 36.5 combined points.

The Broncos are capable of covering this total on their own against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Speaking of key injuries, the Broncos just lost their best defensive player and Defensive MVP candidate Patrick Surtain II to a concussion.  He obviously won't clear protocol in time to play Thursday and has already been ruled out.  They were already without LB Alex Singleton, who was their leading tackler before going down with injury.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.  I expect rookie Spencer Rattler to have enough success to contribute to the OVER cashing.  He led the Saints to 27 points against the Bucs in his first start last week.  He is boom-or-bust and could just as easily throw a pick-6 as a touchdown.  Bet Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall dating back to last season with 48 or more combined points in all four.  They went for 50 combined points against the Browns on the road in Week 1 and 63 combined points against the Saints in Week 2 at home.

The Baltimore Ravens also look like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  Their offense is loaded once again and players are used to Jeff Monken's systems in Year 2.  But their defense has taken a big step back since losing cooardinator Mike McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks.  Many believe he is the best defensive mind in the game.

The OVER is 2-0 in Ravens two games this season combining for 47 points with the Chiefs only after they had a TD called back on the final play of the game with Isaiah Likely's foot on the line.  They racked up 452 total yards on a very good Kansas City defense.  They combined for 49 points with the Raiders last week and had 383 total yards in that defeat.

It will be perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium and the Cowboys are even more of an OVER team at home.  I think both offenses have their way against these two suspect defenses, and this total of 47 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and one of the worst defenses.  We've seen that play out the first two weeks with a 34-28 loss to the Bills and a 41-10 win over the Rams that both flew over the total.

The Detroit Lions have a much better offense than they have shown thus far.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot, and that was definitely the case last week when they managed just 16 points against the Bucs despite 463 total yards.  They went 1-of-7 in the red zone, and that's not going to happen again.  This Detroit offense will get right this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Arizona.

Detroit ranks 2nd in total offense while Arizona ranks 7th currently.  Both teams have had a ton of success on the ground and that will be the case again this week to open up the passing game.  Arizona is rushing for 177.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Detroit is rushing for 151 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Steelers UNDER 37.5

The Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both are run-heavy offenses with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  The clock keeps moving with how much both teams like to run the football.

The Chargers are averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game but just 135 passing yards per game through two games.  The Steelers are averaging 260.5 total yards per game including 139 rushing and 121.5 passing.  These two offenses are setting football back years.

They can afford to be that bad on offense when you play defense like they do.  The Chargers are allowing 227.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The Steelers are allowing 260.5 yards per game this season.  Both defenses are pretty healthy as well.

Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert suffered an ankle injury against the Panthers last week and his status is in question.  Also, one of his top receivers in Joshua Palmer is questionable as well.  Their offense will be handcuffed even more than it already is with a hobbled Herbert.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games involving these two teams this season with 32, 29, 28 and 19 combined points.  This total of 37.5 is too high for a game involving these two teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Eagles/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans ML -125

Every year there is one team that comes out of nowhere to exceed expectations in a big way.  That team in 2024 is the New Orleans Saints.  It just took Klint Kubiak to get the most out of Derek Carr and this offense, and Carr has been unleashed this season under Kubiak's watch.

Amazingly, the Saints have actually scored points on each of their first 15 possessions this season on drives started by Carr.  They blasted the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1, and many just credited that to bad Carolina instead of good New Orleans.  What are they going to say now after the Saints blasted the Cowboys 44-19 on the road in Week 2?

Fans are more excited about this team than they have been since Drew Brees was still around contending for Super Bowls.  The lowest ticket price to get into this game Sunday is $162, and this will be their biggest and loudest crowd in a long time.  It's going to get back to being one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.

While I am a believer in the Saints, I am pretty down on the Eagles as well.  I faded them with the Falcons +6 on Monday because they were going to be without AJ Brown.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  He was out last week, and he's likely to be out again this week, and the Eagles just aren't that explosive without him.

Many expected this Philadelphia defense to be improved.  But that just hasn't been the case.  The Eagles rank 30th in total defense allowing 399.5 yards per game and 31st allowing 7.1 yards per play.  Now they must face a New Orleans offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 405.5 yards per game and 2nd at 7.0 yards per play.  I just don't see the Eagles getting enough stops to stay in this game.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Texans/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston ML -132

The Houston Texans are one of the most complete teams in the NFL.  They are 2-0 this season while the Minnesota Vikings are also 2-0.  But they aren't created equal.  Houston is the real contender between these teams, while I believe Minnesota is a pretender.

The Vikings beat the Giants 28-6 on the road in Week 1.  They came back and upset the 49ers 23-17 in Week 2.  That win over the 49ers sets them up for a letdown spot, and I just don't think they can overcome some key injuries to be able to beat this awesome Texans team this week.

WR Jordan Addison is out as is TE TJ Hockenson.  WR Justin Jefferson suffered a quad contusion that knocked him out of the 49ers game.  While he is expected to play this week, he won't be 100%. Sam Darnold is really running out of weapons in a hurry, and I just don't think he can keep pace with this high-octane Houston offense.

I think the fact that the Texans failed to cover the spread in their first two games is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  The Colts scored on a 4th down in the final seconds to lost 29-27 as 3-point dogs.  The Bears kicked a FG late to cover as 6.5-point dogs in a 19-13 defeat.  This was after the Texans fumbled on a 1st-and-goal from the 3 that would have put the game away.

Houston's numbers have been dominant.  They are averaging 363.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 254 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by over 109.5 yards per game.  I am really excited about their defense as they have one of the best pass-rushes and secondary's in the league.  They already have 9 sacks on the season.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are 0-2 but should be 2-0.  That 0-2 record has them undervalued, and I like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 against a team that isn't also 0-2 because it has been very profitable over time, going 53-32-2 ATS in the last 87 tries.

The Titans didn't allow a single offensive TD in their 24-17 loss to the Bears in Week 1 and blew a 17-3 halftime lead.  They gave up a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and Will Levis thew an inexplicable interception that was returned for a TD.

They had another punt blocked last week against the Jets in their 24-17 home loss.  Levis also committed another inexplicable turnover, trying to lateral the ball inside the New York 5-yard line that the Jets eventually recovered.

Levis has plenty of weapons with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins and Tajae Spears.  The offense will be fine once he quits making boneheaded mistakes.

But the reason I love this Titans team is their defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL allowing 206.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.  They added some great pieces in the offseason including shutdown corner L'Jarius Sneed.  They have an elite secondary, and Jeffery Simmons remains one of the biggest game-wreckers in the league up front.

The Packers suffered a big blow when Jordan Love got hurt in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss to the Eagles in Brazil in Week 1.  Malik Willis, who was brought in from the Titans to replace him, had to start Week 2.

It was a perfect matchup for the Packers against an Indianapolis Colts team that has now allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.  The Colts are decimated on defense, and the Eagles clearly have some problems as well.  Anthony Richardson also gifted the Packers 3 interceptions.

This will be a big step up in class for Willis, and the Titans will force him to have to try and beat them through the air instead of on the ground.  Tennessee is only allowing 92.5 rushing yards per game.  

I think this line has remained so low this week not only because the Titans are 0-2, but also because Jordan Love returned to practice on a limited basis.  It is a complete smokescreen as there's less than a 10% chance Love returns this week.  He is more likely to return in Week 4 or Week 5.  They aren't in a hurry to rush him back either after stealing one from the Colts last week.  It might be a different story if they were 0-2 instead of 1-1.

The Titans know Willis' tendencies and that will be a big advantage for them.  I love the spot with their backs against the wall here against the Packers who will be starting the worst quarterback in the NFL this week.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the 0-2 Denver Broncos and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Tampa Bay Bucs.  0-2 teams facing teams that aren't also 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS in their last 85 tries.  I love this system for Week 3, and the Broncos fit it as good as anyone this week.

This is more a fade of the Bucs than a play on the Broncos.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tampa Bay.  They are going off a shocking 20-16 road win at Detroit as 7.5-point dogs.  They got their playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Lions last year.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the 0-2 Broncos this week, and they'll fall flat on their faces.

The Bucs had no business winning that game as the Lions outgained the Bucks 463 to 216, or by 247 total yards.  But the Lions went 1-of-7 scoring TD's in the red zone, and Jared Goff had a couple awful interceptions.  They let the Bucs off the hook by trying to pass too much.

This Tampa Bay defense is in shambles right now.  They are missing several starters in the secondary, they just lost their biggest run stuffer in DT Vita Vea, and they just lost one of their best pass rushers in DE Calijah Kancey.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current form.

Rookie Bo Nix couldn't have faced two tougher defenses to start his NFL career.  He went on the road and lost 26-20 to the Seahawks, and last week he lost to the Steelers 13-6 at home.  It's safe to say Nix is in line for his best game of the season by far this week against this soft, banged-up Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs have no business laying this big of a number given all their injuries, and in this clear letdown spot off the Detroit win last week.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* Patriots/Jets AFC East No-Brainer on New York -6

The New York Jets needed some time to gel offensively with Aaron Rodgers.  They were a little out of sync in Week 1 and understandably so, losing 32-19 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point dogs.  They have been undervalued since, and continue to be as only 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots Thursday.

The Jets had a big second half offensively to pull away for a 24-17 win as 4-point road favorites at Tennessee.  Breece Hall scored on a 26-yard TD pass from Rodgers, and Rodgers made a great check at the line to spring Braelon Allen for the game-winning 20-yard TD run with under 5 minutes left in the 4th.

Now the Jets get to play in front of their home fans for the first time this season Thursday night.  It's safe to say it is going to be a madhouse as fans have waited two years to see Rodgers in person.  This will be one of the best home-field advantages of the entire season what the Patriots will have to go up against on the road Thursday night.

Everyone thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the NFL this season.  Instead, they upset the Bengals 16-10 in Week 1 and took Seattle to OT in a 23-20 home loss in Week 2.  Now the Patriots have to travel on a short week off that OT game, so they will be extra fatigued for this one.  They are overvalued after going 1-0-1 ATS thus far.  Teams off an OT game with 4 or less days' rest against team that's not also off an OT game are 3-23 ATS since 2002.

The Patriots are also dealing with a ton of injuries.  Four of their starting five offensive linemen are on the injury report.  They just lost MLB Ja'Whuan Bentley to a shoulder injury last week and that's a big blow, especially after losing Matthew Judon to the Falcons in the offseason.  The Jets did lose LB Jermaine Johnson last week, but CJ Mosley's injury was minor, and CB CJ Reed could return this week.

While both teams have pretty good defenses, there is a big discrepancy on offense.  The Patriots have arguably the worst offense in the NFL if it's not the Carolina Panthers, which is may not be now that Andy Dalton is starting.  The Patriots are a one-dimensional running team who are easy to stop.  They have no weapons outside, and QB Jacoby Brissett has only been looking at TE Hunter Hentry almost exclusively thus far.  He has 15 receptions and nobody else has more than 8 this season.

The Jets will get better every week offensively and will turn into a Top 10 offense in my opinion.  They are just too loaded everywhere not to be.  They had massive upgrades on their offensive line in the offseason, brought in WR Mike Williams to go along with Breece Hall, Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, and of course arguably the biggest upgrade at QB in NFL history.  The Jets should be at least 7-point home favorites today given all the advantages they have.  We'll take advantage and lay the 6 points.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* Falcons/Eagles ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6

The Atlanta Falcons got a lot of hype coming into the season.  That led to them taking a lot of money in Week 1 as 4-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost outright 18-10 despite holding the Steelers without a single touchdown.

The Steelers went on to beat the Broncos 13-6 on the road in Week 2 and clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It was a tough spot for Kirk Cousins in his return from an Achilles.  He looked a little hesitant which is to be expected with that much time off and thinking about the injury.

I expect Cousins and the Falcons to be much more comfortable in Week 2.  He is loaded with weapons on offense and playing behind one of the league's best O-Lines, plus the defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL with the additions of LB Judon and S Simmons just before the season.

The Eagles are actually in a bit of a tough spot returning home from Brazil following their 34-29 shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.  Their defense was their undoing last year, and it doesn't look much better this season already after allowing 29 points and 414 total yards to the Packers, including 163 rushing on 21 carries for an average of 7.8 yards per carry.  Bijan Robinson and the Falcons should have plenty of success on the ground in this one as well.

But one of the biggest reasons I'm on the Falcons is because the Eagles will be without their best offensive weapon in AJ Brown.  He was announced out on Sunday, and as soon as I saw the news I put in the Falcons +6.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  

His loss is a huge blow because this Philadelphia offense was tough to tame with Brown, Smith and Barkley, but missing one of those three studs will make them much easier to defend.  This game will go down to the wire tonight, so catching 6 points is a very nice value.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

I love the spot for the Denver Broncos and hate the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Steelers will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and will have to play in altitude in Denver, and I question how well they will handle it when it gets to the 4th quarter with poor conditioning this early in the season.

The Steelers are getting too much respect from the books off their upset win at Atlanta last week.  That was a rebuilding Falcons team with a new head coach, new coordinators and an aging QB in Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury.

The Steelers managed to win that game 18-10 despite not scoring a single touchdown.  Fields did a good job of managing the game, and the Steelers relied on their defense, which is no doubt one of the best in the league.  But I think it was more about bad Falcons than good Steelers.  This is still one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Broncos were in a tough spot in Week 1 sending rookie Bo Nix into the 12th man to face the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL as well, so that will be good preparation for Nix this week.  He held it together well in a 26-20 loss, and he will be much more comfortable in front of his home fans this week.

The Broncos have a pretty good defense and one that will be able to contain Fields now that they have a week to prepare for him.  The Falcons didn't have that luxury last week as they prepared to face Russell Wilson.  Well, Wilson wasn't ruled out until Saturday, so the Falcons didn't have much time to prepare for the dual-threat in Fields.  They still managed to hold the Steelers without an offensive TD.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Travis Etienne was going in for a TD that would have made it 24-7 Jaguars in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins in Week 1 and put the game away.  Instead, he fumbled into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a 80-yard bomb on the next play that totally changed the game.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17.

No question the Jaguars will be pissed off in practice all week and will be looking to take out their frustration on the Browns this week.  The Browns looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 1 in their 33-17 home loss to the Cowboys.  Deshaun Watson looks broken, the offensive line is banged up, they lost TE David Njoku to injury during the game, and they have other key injuries on defense.

Watson had one of the worst games by an NFL quarterback in years.  He went 26-of-45 passing for 169 yards with one TD and 2 INT.  He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt and was sacked 6 times.  He is dealing with a ton of distractions right now with two tragedies plus another sexual assault allegation.  I think the team as a whole is just fed up with him right now to boot.

The Jaguars were on their way to winning the AFC South last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt.  They made some great moves this offseason to upgrade their offensive line, the skill positions and the defensive line.  They were putting Tua under pressure all game, and they are a much better offensive team than they showed against the Dolphins.  I think Lawrence and company will score at will on a Cleveland defense that allowed more points per game on the road last season than any other team in the NFL.  I don't think Watson can keep up, especially since he'll be playing behind a banged up O-Line and without Njoku.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3

The New England Patriots were the consensus worst team in the NFL coming into the season.  But after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last week, the Patriots are now getting some respect.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.

The Bengals are notorious for disappointing performances in Week 1.  It's because they don't take the preseason seriously and they are never ready.  They were without WR Tee Higgins, and WR Ja'Marr Chase is disgruntled without a new contract.  Joe Burrow is visibly injured as his wrist just isn't right.  And their defense is down a couple notches from a few years ago, especially since they lost run-stuffer DJ Reader, which allowed the Patriots to move the ball on the ground against them.  I think that 16-10 upset was way more bad Bengals than good Patriots.

The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL.  They have the worst set of skill positions players, a shaky offensive line, and one of the worst QB situations since they are going with career backup Jacoby Brissett.  Brissett went 15-of-24 for 121 yards against the Bengals.  They rode Rhamondre Stevenson and his 120 rushing yards on 25 carrries.

The Seahawks brought in former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald as their head coach.  He is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and the Seahawks are loaded on defense this season.  They aren't going to let Stevenson run wild on them like the Bengals did.  They are going to make Brissett try and beat them, and I don't think he can.

The Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions, and Geno Smith is more than just a game manager.  They will put up enough points to get us the cover as their defense comes close to pitching a shutout in this one.  The Seahawks held the Broncos to just 231 total yards and 3.3 yards per play last week.  This has the makings of a Top 5 defense.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Commanders OVER 43.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in Week 2 when the New York Giants visit the Washington Commanders.  I expect both offenses to get going this week after sub par performances in Week 1.  We are getting great value on the OVER 43.5 as a result, which is just below two very key numbers for NFL totals in 44 and 45.

The Giants made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana last week. They scored 28 points in 3 quarters before calling off the dogs in a blowout.  Darnold went 19-of-24 passing for 208 yards and 2 TD against the Giants, who allowed 6.1 yards per play to the Vikings for the game.

The Commanders probably have the worst defense in the NFL.  They made Baker Mayfield look like Patrick Mahomes last week.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD, while the Bucs also rushed for 112 yards in their 37-20 win over the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels and this Washington offense are going to improve rapidly under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.  Daniels is too good, and he is loaded with weapons this season.  Expect the breakout game to come for him here in Week 2.

Daniel Jones is undoubtedly one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  But he is better than he showed against the Vikings, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL under Brian Flores.  Jones got good news when it was announced Malik Nabers would be playing this week after an injury scare, and the rookie WR is in line for a big game against this awful Washington secondary.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jets/Titans OVER 40.5

Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good all things considered in his first action since basically a year ago when he tore his Achilles in Week 1 last year.  He is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, and he has some serious weapons in Wilson, Lazard, Williams and Hall.  This is a very low total for a game involving this kind of offense.

The Titans have one of the more underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have a good offensive line, and second-year QB Will Levis makes a lot of big plays but also a lot of mistakes, which is good for OVERS.  Levis has ample weapons with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tahj Boyd and RB Tony Pollard.  Plus, DeAndre Hopkins should be much closer to full strength this week after he and Levis formed a great chemistry last year.

The Jets were gashed by the 49ers defensively with outside zone runs.  That is their weakness on defense, and I think the Titans can exploit it with Pollard and Tajae Spears.  Brian Callahan is one of the best O-Line coaches in the history of the NFL and will have this scheme ready to go after rushing for 140 yards on the Bears last week.

The Titans do have an improved defense this season, but a lot of their success last week had more to do with bad Bears than good Titans.  Rookie Caleb Williams was making his first start, and WR's Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen both got banged up.  I don't think the Titans will have close to as much success defensively against Rodgers and company this week.

This total is just below a very key number of 41 and we are getting great value on the OVER after both offenses were a bit sluggish against elite defenses last week.  Both offenses take a step down in class this week and should have more success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Nobody wants to give the New Orleans Saints credit for their 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers last week.  Nobody was talking about the Saints as serious contenders to win the NFC South, which is the worst division in football.  This team is flying under the radar to start the season.

Everyone wants to crown the Dallas Cowboys after going on the road and beating the Cleveland Browns 33-17 last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Cowboys only managed 265 total yards and 4.4 yards per play on offense.  Deshaun Watson was terrible and gifted the Cowboys the win, plus the Browns were dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line.

The Saints outgained the Panthers 379 to 193 and 6.1 yards per play to 3.5 yards per play.  Many thought the Panthers would be improved this season under new head coach Dave Canales, and most were on the Panthers last week because of it.  So to just dismiss this performance as the Panthers being bad rather than the Saints being good I think isn't doing the Saints justice.

New Orleans is one of the healthiest teams in the NFL to start the season.  They have arguably a Top 5 defense, and Derek Carr was flawless in his first start under new coordinator Klint Kubiak.  Carr completed 19-of-23 passes for 200 yards and 3 TD, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards as a team.

The Cowboys were already lacking offensive weapons outside CeeDee Lamb, and now they are going to be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a knee injury against the Browns last week.  Ferguson is a security blanket for Dak Prescott and his loss is bigger than most recognize.  The Saints will be able to key in on Lamb even more now to try and take him away.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so there's serious value on New Orleans this week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Vikings UNDER 45.5

Sam Darnold came over to the Minnesota Vikings from the San Francisco Giants.  He has the insight on how to stop Kyle Shanahan's offense to give to Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores.  Conversely, the 49ers have the insight on Darnold's strengths and weaknesses and will come up with the proper game plan to stop him.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that familiarity for both teams will favor the UNDER.  Plus, the 49ers and Vikings squared off last season in October with the Vikings prevailing 22-17 for just 39 combined points with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

The Giants made Darnold look like Joe Montana last week.  They have an awful defense.  This is a big step up in class for this Minnesota offense taking on a San Francisco defense that is one of the best in the NFL.  The 49ers held the Jets to 19 points only after the Jets scored a meaningless TD in garbage time with 25 seconds left last week.  They also held the Jets to 266 total yards, with a large chunk of that coming in garbage time.

Making matters worse for Darnold is the fact that he will be without WR Jordan Addison, who came on strong last year in the absence of Justin Jefferson.  Addison re-injured his ankle that was giving him problems in training came against the Giants and has been ruled out.  The Vikings were already without stud TE TJ Hockenson.  Now the 49ers can focus in on stopping Jefferson because the Vikings just don't have many other weapons that can beat them.

Speaking of injuries, the 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey again this week.  Jordan Mason played well in his place against the Jets, but no question McCaffrey adds a different dimension to this offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game, and I suspect he will come up with the right game plan to hold the 49ers in check.  He did last year limiting them to 17 points.  

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 40 or fewer combined points in five of those six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East No-Brainer on Buffalo +2.5

Note: I am also playing a 6-Point Teaser with the Bills +8.5/Broncos +9

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a misleading 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.  Neither team deserved to score that many points, especially Arizona, which was held to just 270 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.  But the Cardinals scored on a 96-yard kickoff return TD in the 4th quarter and were set up with short fields on a few other kickoffs.

The Bills did pretty much whatever they wanted to offensively averaging 6.1 yards per play.  And they will do pretty much whatever they want to offensively against a Miami defense that lost five of their top six sackers from last season.  And this is a Miami defense that just cannot figure out Josh Allen and the Bills.

Indeed, the Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Dolphins with their lone loss coming by 2 points.  So they would be 12-0 ATS with a line of +2.5, which is what we are getting the Bills at in this game.  There's nothing fluky about this run as Buffalo has outgained Miami in 10 consecutive meetings.  Wrong team favored here.

Miami was fortunate to win 20-17 at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  The Dolphins trailed 17-7 and Jacksonville was going in for a TD that would have put the game out of reach at 24-7 in the 3rd quarter.  But Travis Etienne fumbled going into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a Tyreek Hill bomb on the very next play.  The game changed with that one play in what was otherwise a dominant effort by the Jaguars.

Miami has a ton of injuries and one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  The Bills are better up front on both sides of the ball and will dominate the line is scrimmage, which has been the key to their dominance over the last 12 meetings.  RB Mostert is out and RB Achane will be a game-time decision, so they are thin in the backfield.  There are also concerning injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Jets/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Jets have managed to fly under the radar this offseason despite being in the biggest media market in pro sports.  That's a good thing because they haven't caused many headlines, and they are ready to go for the 2024 season.

The same cannot be said for the San Francisco 49ers.  They had two big contract holdouts in LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk.  The 49ers eventually signed both, but not until the week before this game.  The chemistry will be off for the 49ers early in the season as a result.

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser every season, especially early in the year, and especially in Week 1.  Indeed, the loser of the Super Bowl from the previous season has gone 4-20 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 years.  It makes sense because these teams aren't over their Super Bowl loss, and it's tough for them to get focused for another run after coming so close.

The Jets should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in his first drive of the season last year.  Just having him healthy will make a huge difference alone.  It was a minor miracle the Jets won 7 games last year while playing three QB's that may never start another game in the NFL.

That was a testament to their defense, which will once again be one of the best in the NFL and is a better unit than what the 49ers have to offer.  They finished 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season.  Headlining this defense is DT Quinnen Williams, LB's C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and CB Sauce Gardner.  All four rank near the top of the NFL at their respective positions.

The Jets gave Rodgers plenty of help on offense.  They signed veteran WR Mike Williams and he will be opposite stud youngster Garrett Wilson.  Third-round pick Malachi Corley is drawing comparisons to Deebo Samuel.  RB Breece Hall is one of the best in the league and showed he is fully recovered from his torn ACL in 2022 with a big finish last season.  

The Jets really bolstered what was one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year.  They used the No. 11 pick on to challenge RT Morgan Moses.  They signed G John Simpson from Baltimore, and C Joe Tippmann was a second-round pick last year that will only improve.  They signed LT Tyron Smith from Dallas, and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is solid when healthy, which is the case currently.

New York head coach Robert Saleh knows what to expect from Kyle Shanahan after serving under him as their defensive coordinator before taking his current job.  I like how healthy the Jets are and how under the radar they are flying heading into the season.  I will gladly fade the 49ers and their crazy offseason, plus the Super Bowl hangover factor.  

Aaron Rodgers is a perfect 10-0 SU in his last 10 Monday Night Football starts.  Underdogs are 29-12-1 ATS in the last 42 MNF games.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +3.5

The Washington Commanders finally have new ownership.  They have a new head coach in Dan Quinn and a new offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury.  They took Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.  The Commanders have new life and there is a buzz around the building about the prospects of this team.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers back-doored the NFC South title last year.  But the NFC South is the worst division in football.  And they lost arguably the most important piece to that run in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who took the head coaching job of the Carolina Panthers.  Canales was with Geno Smith for his career year in Seattle, and he was with Baker Mayfield for his career year in Tampa Bay last season.  I think this offense takes a big hit without Canales running it.

The Commanders had the worst turnover differential (-14) in the NFL last season while the Buccaneers (+6) had one of the best.  The Bucs were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year, and they benefited from playing in the worst division in football.  The Commanders were one of the most unlucky teams.  As a result, this line is inflated and we are getting great value on the Commanders +3.5 in Week 1 when I believe they are actually the better team.

I love the additions the Commanders made along the offensive line and at running back.  They also made some great additions at linebacker, and the front seven is very strong to make up for their one weakness, which is the secondary.  The Commanders will have the element of surprise because the Bucs won't know what to expect from Daniels in Kingsbury's offense.  I think they both shine in Week 1.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Titans/Bears OVER 44.5

The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans are two offenses I am very high on this year.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses.  These were two poor offenses last year, and that perception is creating value for us to take the OVER 44.5.

The Bears got the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and he's already probably the best QB they have had in 20-plus years.  They used the 8th pick on WR Rome Odunze, signed one of the most productive WR's in the game in Keenan Allen, and signed WR DJ Moore to a new contract after a big season last year.  TE Cole Kmet is one of the most underrated in the game.  RB D'Andre Swift comes over from the Eagles to give them a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Khalil Herbert.

The Titans also made massive improvements to the offense this offseason.  They brought in WR's Calvin Ridley from the Jaguars and Tyler Boyd from the Bengals after signing WR DeAndre Hopkins last year.  RB's Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a solid 1-2 punch as both are weapons catching the ball out of the backfield.  Now QB Will Levis has a chance to shine under first-year head coach Brian Callahan, who was the offensive coordinator of the Bengals.  He brought in his dad, one of the best O-Line coaches ever, to work with an improved offensive line.  They used the 7th overall pick on LT JC Latham, while also signing C Lloyd Cushenberry, and this should now be one of the most improved O-Lines in the league.

The Bears have some significant injuries on defense.  They were fortunate late in the season with some turnover luck that made their numbers look better than they really were.  The Titans can expose them in Week 1.  While the Titans did make some improvements on defense, they can only go up from here after having one of the worst stop units in the league last year.  They will be improved to probably league average, but the Bears should be able to exploit them as well, especially at linebacker.

It's rare you get a forecast this nice at Soldier Field in Chicago.  Temps will be in the 60's with single-digit winds.  Both Williams and Levis are in line for big days in a game that should easily top 44.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +2

Note: I also played a 6-point teaser on the Giants +8/Cowboys +8.5

The New York Giants surprised and made the playoffs in Brian Daboll's first season on the job in 2022.  They also got a full healthy season out of QB Daniel Jones.  That wasn't the case last year as the Giants went through three different QB's and were even starting Tommy DeVito down the stretch.  They finished 6-11 in a forgetful season.

Now DaBoll is taking over play-calling duties and putting his money where his mouth is.  The Giants stuck with Jones at QB so they could make improvements elsewhere and actually get him some help for once.  They did that instantly in the draft by taking WR Malik Nabers from LSU with the 6th pick.  He is the guy they wanted all along, even over Marvin Harrison Jr., which is saying something.

They lost RB Saquon Barkley and replaced him with RB Devin Singletary, but running backs aren't worth much and I like the replacement.  They spent big money to get one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in DE Brian Burns.  They shored up the offensive line by signing OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan and G Aaron Stinnie.  They got the secondary some help with S Tyler Nubin and CB Andru Phillips with their second and third picks in the NFL Draft, respectively.

It's the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Giants as home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team that has no business being a road favorite.  Injuries have really decimated the Vikings this offseason.  They just can't catch a break.  

They moved up to draft JJ McCarthy, and now he is out with a season-ending injury suffered in the preseason.  Now their fate is in the hands of QB Sam Darnold, who is no more than a decent backup in this league.  I would take Daniel Jones over Darnold any day.

4th-round pick Khyree Jackson died in a traffic accident two months after getting drafted.  They lost one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last year and was a big reason defensive coordinator Brian Flores' aggressive system worked.  TE TJ Hockenson is out with an injury, and WR Jordan Addison has an ankle injury but is expected to play.  

Daboll is a perfect 7-0 SU in his last seven games as a head coach or offensive coordinator against a Brian Flores-coached defense.  He has him figured out.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -2.5

The Houston Texans chased down the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South last year in rookie QB CJ Stroud's first season.  He was by far the best QB of the rookie class and is already one of the best QB's in the NFL.  He is a big reason I believe the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.

The Texans won a playoff game by blowing out the Browns, but then lost at Baltimore in the Divisional Round.  They showed they could play with the big boys, and the pieces they added in the offseason and better health could have them really making some noise this season.

The Texans added two huge pieces on offense in RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs is just one of three talented receivers that Stroud will be throwing to.  Nico Collins took a big leap last year and was their top receiver, and Tank Dell was dynamite before being lost for the season due to injury in Week 13.  TE Dalton Schultz is also one of the most underrated in his position in the league.

While the Houston offense gets all the headlines, this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL as well.  Not only did Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Texans moved up to No. 3 to draft Will Anderson, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year.  They do lose Jonathan Greenard and his 12.5 sacks last year, but replace him with Danielle Hunter, who had had 16.5 sacks with the Vikings last year and is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  Anderson and Hunter form arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league.

They replaced Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins with Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry.  Fatukasi is one of the best runs stuffers in the league, whlie Autry is coming off a 12.5-sack season. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best in the league, and they spend 2nd and 3rd round picks on Kamaris Lassiter and Calen Bullock to bolster the defensive backfield.  Jimmie Warn and Jalen Pitre are two quality safeties.  Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be their top linebacker.

The Indianapolis Colts are relying on 2nd-year pro Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  While he has the physical tools, he struggles with accuracy and is almost more of a threat in the running game.  His reckless style led to him getting hurt in every game he played last year.  While the offense should be good in the running game with Jonathan Taylor, I don't love the weapons on the outside.

The main problem with the Colts is defense.  They have a solid defensive line, but linebacker and secondary is a weakness.  The Colts haven't recovered from Shaq Leonard's decline and eventual release.  E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are liabilities in coverage.  We are getting the Texans at a discount in the opener as short 2.5-point road favorites.  

The Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 Week 1 games.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Dolphins OVER 48.5

This is going to be a shootout between what will turn out to be two of the best offenses in the NFL in the Jaguars and Dolphins.  Temps will be in the 80's with less than 10 MPH winds and only a 25% chance of rain in Miami, so conditions were perfect for that shootout as well.

The Dolphins probably have the best offense in the NFL.  They put have averaged 35.5 points per game in the first three games of the season under current head coach Mike McDaniel.  They have all their weapons back from last year, plus open the season with a healthy offensive line, which wasn't the case last year.

The problem for the Dolphins is defense, where they will be without five of their top six leaders in sacks from last season due to either moving on to a different team or due to injury.  CB Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  This banged up, short-handed defense will get tired and shredded in the Miami heat.

The Jaguars are loaded on offense this season.  They put up big numbers before Trevor Lawrence got hurt last year.  They added C Mitch Morse and rookie WR Brian Thomas with the only key loss being WR Calvin Ridley.  They will have better health alone the offensive line and start the season intact up front.

The Jaguars did not play well defensively last year ranking 26th in defensive EPA for the season, including bottom 10 in both stopping the run and defending the pass.  They hired Ryan Nielsen as their new defensive coordinator.  He runs a more aggressive style with lots of man-to-man coverage.  But that's exactly the type of defense that the Dolphins shred as they are much worse against 2-high zone defenses.  Look for Jacksonville's defense to be out of sorts in Week 1 trying to execute the new scheme against the league's top offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles already had one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they add in RB Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in the NFL when healthy.  They also traded for Josh Doctson of the Commanders to give them a true No. 3 receiver to compliment arguably the best duo in the entire NFL in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

The defense was the weakness of the Eagles last year.  They addressed that in the offseason starting with the hiring of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator.  They signed LB Devin White and S Chancey Gardner-Johnson.  They added two of the top CB's in the draft in the first two rounds in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Green Bay Packers with the way they finished last season.  But I just don't think they are on Philadelphia's level to start this season.  I like Jordan Love and the talented young receivers he has to work with, but they lose dynamic playmaker Aaron Jones and replace him with Josh Jacobs, who has carried a heavy workload with the Raiders and can't do as much as Jones in the receiving game.  His backup in AJ Dillon has been lost for the season, so there's not much depth behind him.

The Packers lost former first-round pick Darnell Savage at safety and LB De'Vondre Campbell, who was one of the best LB's in the NFL.  They nabbed Jeff Hafley from Boston College as their defensive coordinator and have struggled finding a coordinator for years.  They just cut K Anders Carlson shortly before the season, and they could struggle in the kicking game until the find a serviceable replacement.

I have the Eagles at least a FG better than the Packers on a neutral this year, and this game will be played in Brazil on a neutral.  Getting -2.5 is a nice value on them to start the season.  Bet the Eagles Friday.

15* Ravens/Chiefs NFL Season Opener on UNDER 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens meet in a rematch from the AFC Championship Game last year.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another to boot.  Points will be hard to come by as a result.

UNDERS usually dominate in Week 1 of the NFL season with defenses ahead of the offenses.  I expect that to be the case here.  Kansas City beat Baltimore 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game for just 27 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

A lot has been made of the improvements the Chiefs have made offensively in the offseason adding Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.  However, Brown has been ruled out with an injury, and I don't expect much from Worthy in his first game in the league.  This Kansas City offense won't be hitting on all cylinders until Brown returns.

Lamar Jackson will be rusty after not seeing any action in the preseason.  The Chiefs have him figured out as well as their Cover 0 scheme is the one he struggles against most.  After making a big mistake by throwing the ball too much against KC in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens will be looking to pound the rock which is what they are best at.

Both teams have their best chance at success on the ground.  Both defenses are way more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass.  With so much of this game being played on the ground, there will be fewer clock stoppages.  These were two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL last year and both will be elite again this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers ML -118

BONUS BETS: I will be adding my favorite Super Bowl Props leading up to the Super Bowl. Check back below my analysis for these bonus bets.  I should have them all up by Saturday, February 10th.

If this game was played last week the 49ers would be -3.  But since the Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Ravens and the 49ers struggled to get by the Lions, this line has been adjusted down close to PK.  I will gladly take advantage and 'buy low' on the 49ers and 'sell high' on the Chiefs.

The 49ers were the highest power rated team in the NFL all season.  That means that they were the best team in the NFL all season.  I still believe that to be the case now even though they needed comebacks to beat both the Packers and the Lions.  But those two games are easily explainable.

The 49ers were overvalued going into both of those games laying -10.5 to the Packers and -7.5 to the Lions.  The Packers were as healthy as they had been all season which allowed them to upset the Cowboys on the road prior to giving the 49ers a run for their money.  But when Brock Purdy needed a drive the most down 4 in the 4th quarter, he came through with his best drive of the game and the game-winning score.

That confidence carried over to the game against the Lions.  Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the 49ers scored 27 unanswered points in the 2H behind Purdy and actually took a 10-point lead before the Lions got a garbage TD to win by 3.  The 49ers got the Lions' best shot and it was also a fully healthy Detroit team playing their best football of the season.  The Chiefs lost to the Lions AND the Packers earlier this season, and neither were playing as well as they were against the 49ers at the time the Chiefs lost to them.

The Chiefs are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Dolphins 26-7 in the playoff opener.  They took advantage of a depleted Miami defense and got to face the warm weather Dolphins at temperatures around zero degrees.  They upset the Bills 27-24 as 2.5-point road dogs in the Divisional Round.  They took advantage of a Buffalo defense that was decimated by injuries again.

Last week, the Chiefs pulled the 17-10 upset as 4.5-point road dogs at Baltimore.  The Ravens are fully to blame for this one.  They had a huge advantage on the ground and decided to let Lamar Jackson try to beat them with his arm.  They got away from their strength.  They only gave Gus Edwards three carries for 20 yards to the entire game.  It was mind-blowing.

The Ravens let the Chiefs off the hook, and so did the Bills.  After a run-heavy approach through three quarters, the Bills went away from the run in the 4th.  They rushed for 182 yards on the Chiefs in that game but inexplicably went away from it with the game on the line.  It also helped the Chiefs that Stefon Diggs dropped a potential TD bomb from Allen that would have changed the game.

The 49ers will not let the Chiefs off the hook.  Kyle Shanahan loves to run the football, and he will come with the proper game plan to beat Kansas City.  He will give it to his best offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey.  He had 1,459 rushing yards and 14 TD during the regular season while also catching 67 balls for 564 yards and seven scores.  He has been a workhorse in these playoffs, rushing 37 times for 188 yards and 4 TD while also catching 11 balls for 72 yards.  Shanahan will put the game in his hands and open up play-action for Brock Purdy, who has proven he is more than just a game manager coming up clutch with comeback wins in back-to-back games.

The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  They are an elite pass defense, but getting physical with them in the running game is what they are susceptible too.  The 49ers have the perfect answer with McCaffery and company.  We've seen the 49ers struggle against the outside zone against the run all season, including the last two weeks.  But the Packers with Aaron Jones and the Lions with their two-headed monster at RB in Montgomery and Gibbs thrive running the outside zone where they can use their speed to get to the edge.

The great news for the 49ers is after facing two great outside zone teams with two of the best offensive lines in the league, they now get to face the Chiefs, who run mostly inside zone.  The 49ers are elite at stopping runs into the middle of their line because of their elite LB's.  They struggle setting an edge at Nick Bosa and Chase Young sometimes get too pass rush-happy.  They won't have to worry about that against the Chiefs, who have a great pass blocking O-Line but not a good run blocking O-Line.

The Chiefs are going to put the ball in Mahomes' hands and try to attack the 49ers with the pass.  Well, the 49ers are elite against the pass especially to passes over the middle of the field, ranking 1st in the NFL in defending such passes.  That means they will be great at taking away Travis Kelce, which is Mahomes' biggest weapon.  The Chiefs have been getting by with their lack of playmakers on offense, but they will run out of luck this week.  Their defense has carried them, but I think the 49ers will do as much damage as any team has on that defense because they are loaded on offense and scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  The 49ers will defense the pass well enough.  They give up just 216 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

While the 49ers are about as healthy as they have been all season, the Chiefs have some key injuries on defense.  They just lost DE Charles Omenihu to a torn ACL against the Ravens when he got a sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson.  Omenihu has 8 sacks in just 12 games this season and is their best pass rusher opposite Chris Jones.  LB Willie Gay missed the Baltimore games and is questionable with a neck injury.  All-Pro G Joe Thuney also missed the Baltimore game and is questionable.  DT Derrick Nnadi has been placed on injured reserve.

Finally, it just feels like San Francisco's year after those two comeback wins to get here.  They basically never came back to win games in the 2H under Kyle Shanahan up until these playoffs.  Now they got the monkey off their back and are brimming with confidence.  Purdy is good enough to win a Super Bowl largely because of all the talent he has around him.  He also showed he can make plays with his legs if need be.  The 49ers desperately want revenge on the Chiefs after blowing a 10-point 4Q lead in their last trip to the Super Bowl.  But they don't have to deal with Tyreke Hill any more.  They are the more complete team and that will show on the field Sunday.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Listed in order of strongest to weakest

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-130)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (-115)

Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 Receptions (-160)

McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Ji'Ayir Brown OVER 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

Which Team Will Have the Longest Gross Punt? 49ers (-115)

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-125)

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Anytime TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)

Super Bowl MVP: Deebo Samuel (+2500)

20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total.  They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT.  But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds.

The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL.  We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior.  The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens.

Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers.  But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college.  Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now.  

The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series.  That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense.  But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense.

With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense.  They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season.  The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors.  But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara.

This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past.  The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch.  Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush.  They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games.  For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense.

San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season.  That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher.

The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers.  The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon.

The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week.  LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable.  Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week.  This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season.

KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season.  When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills.  They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead.

With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER.  The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs.  They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills.  They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards.

No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season.  We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy.  They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers.  I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points.  Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City.  The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City +3

Note: Buy to +3 (-125) or better

I've been riding the Buffalo Bills with regularity since their bye week.  The Bills returned from their bye and went on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in a controversial finish.  I was fortunate to cash that ticket on the Bills, who are 6-0 SU since their bye week.  But now it's time to buck the Bills and back the Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the rest advantage and the injury advantage.  The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were held to four field goals as they struggled in the red zone or would have won by even more.  Now they have had the last seven days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  That's especially the case since they rested their starters in Week 18.

The Bills did not have the luxury of getting to rest their starters in Week 18.  They needed to beat the Dolphins to win the division and get the No. 2 seed.  They came back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to beat the Dolphins 21-14.  It was their 3rd consecutive dog fight after beating the Chargers 24-22 on the road and the Patriots 27-21 at home.  Then they beat the Steelers 31-17 at home last week, but their defense was on the field for the majority of the 2nd half.

That game against the Steelers was played on Monday as it was moved due to weather.  Now the Bills only have five days' rest and not much time to prepare for the Chiefs.  The Bills lost several defensive starters to injury against the Steelers to boot.  Now the Bills have 6 defensive starters questionable to play in this game.  These 6 have combined for 548 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 35 passes defended and 91 of a possible 102 starts.  The Bills would be lucky if they even have half of them available.  Not to mention, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is hurt and may not play this week.

The Chiefs had basically a bye in Week 18 to rest their starters.  They came back fresh and ready to go and crushed the Dolphins 26-7.  Their offense worked as well as it has all season with 409 total yards on the Dolphins.  They rushed for 167 yards and Mahomes found some chemistry with his receivers.  Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a TD while Travis Kelce has seven receptions for 71 yards in the win.  I expect Mahomes and company to have a monster game against this banged up Buffalo defense.

Josh Allen has been a walking turnover this season and I think he will give the ball to the Chiefs one or two times that will be the difference in this game.  The Chiefs outgained the Bills 346 to 327 and 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in that first meeting in Kansas City.  Those numbers would have been even worse if the TD from Mahomes, to Kelce, to Toney stood had Toney not been called for being offsides in a tick-tack call.  The Chiefs want their revenge, and given all their advantages coming into this one in rest and injuries, I expect them to get that revenge.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds in his career.  The Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog with their lone loss coming with Alex Smith at QB in 2017.  Buffalo is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Andy Reid is 42-22 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday night.