20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have an elite offense and a suspect defense.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.  They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.

I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively.  But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense.  They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week.  They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.

The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total.  They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings.  The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3

If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.  But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.

Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win.  They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win.  They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them.  And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles.  So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.

Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game.  Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks.  The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season.  And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.

The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans.  But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter.  They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover.  Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.

When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost.  They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD.  They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now.  They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home.  They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.

While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns.  They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans.  Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers.  Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  

Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game.  That's a good sign he will be able to play this week.  And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week.  If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost.  The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3

The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season.  They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4.  They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter.  The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL.  They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2.  The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards.  And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.

Now it gets worse for the Colts.  They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans.  It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%.  They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game.  I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.

The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players.  I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown.  They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss.  They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now.  They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did.  Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.

I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward.  They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play.  Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.

Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Broncos Thursday.

20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0.  Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams.  We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.

The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost.  They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7.  And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.

The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play.  They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game.  I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.

Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance.  But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm.  I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.

The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now.  The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won.  Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.

The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites.  And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12.  Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game.  Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker.  The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.

The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year.  So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.  They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins.  San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Roll with the 49ers Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently.  No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.

I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week.  And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week.  They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week.  They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week.  They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week.  As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.

The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle.  All three of their games have been decided by one score this season.  If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.

I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense.  The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs.  They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week.  Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents.  Take the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3

Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat the Bengals in Week 2.  And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.

Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks.  That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders.  Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.

The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game.  They couldn't do anything until garbage time.  Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion.  He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented.  And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

This Washington defense isn't any good, either.  The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense.  There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.

This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way.  The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important.  Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.

The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes.  Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it.  Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.

That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars.  Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson.  They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games.  They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.

Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks.  Pederson is a big reason why.  Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit.  Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line.  Pederson is working his magic with this offense.

Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season.  They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense.  They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season.  I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140

The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South.  Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going.  I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.

QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game.  Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries.  All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.

The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy.  Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before.  The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before.  The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable.  They are remarkably healthy.

The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC.  They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener.  I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone.  And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC.  They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.

I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad.  Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football.  New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180

I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game.  I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher.  So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins.  They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see.  They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won.  They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo.  Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes.  That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.

It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals.  There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest.  Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.

The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either.  QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense.  DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable.  This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.

So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead.  In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards.  They lost due to committing five turnovers.  They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.

Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets.  Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.  And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start.  And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills.  The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.

While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year.  This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL.  They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year.  They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.

The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week.  The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team.  Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1

The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0.  They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.  The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.

Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.  They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season.  I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game.  They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful.  They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful.  The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss.  They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play.  It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.

Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.  This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks.  They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week.  They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well.  Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.  The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas.  Roll with the Cowboys Monday.

15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2

This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay.  The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries.  And it has gotten worse this week.  QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue.  He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.

The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable.  They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems.  They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells.  They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.

It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian.  The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season.  They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half.  The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.

Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago.  They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy.  They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember.  That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury.  They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.

The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did.  And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory.  They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.

The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs.  You know they have had this game circled all offseason.  The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week.  I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play.  Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon.  I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.

Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play.  They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home.  They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.  

This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already.  Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2.  He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt.  Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries.  They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.

Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate.  The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.

The opener for the Patriots was also misleading.  It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate.  The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play.  That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.

The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary.  Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did.  The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.

It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score.  The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards.  So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise.  The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.

After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore.  The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer.  This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time.  They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts.  This line would have been close to a PK to open the season.  So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football.  And even those two weeks are misleading.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers.  They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game.  They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.

The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats.  Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week.  Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset.  That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.

Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week.  They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled.  But both are back this week for Matt Ryan.  It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable.  Almost all  the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.

The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town.  And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere.  After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive.  Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.

Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.  He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season.  That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run.  The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game.  Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.

It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints.  That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards.  They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.

The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now.  Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return.  They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back.  That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away.  It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.

Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010.  There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall.  Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.  Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2.  But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be.  I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point.  And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.

The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards.  Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened.  The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.

You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener.  They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals.  That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good.  The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.

Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year.  He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL.  The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.

That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots.  The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night.  The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up.  The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.

If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky.  Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts.  He is averaging 6.2 per attempt.  Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.  He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week.  We'll take advantage.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season.  I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers.  But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.

That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers.  Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard.  They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.

The Eagles will not be easy to defend.  They are loaded on offense this season.  They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans.  They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.

Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1.  Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas.  Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.

The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2.  The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett.  I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters.  The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.

Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night.  When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL.  Cousins has always struggled in primetime.  He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.  The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least.  I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe.   Bet the Eagles Monday.

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10

This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog.  The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener.  That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.

The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week.  They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon.  The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards.  They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play.  They really had no business winning that game.

Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team.  This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday.  The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason.  Those were arguably their two best players.  Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.

Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week.  These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota.  Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.

This is a perfect spot to back the Packers.  Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates.  Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.

The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits.  Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified.  I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers.  The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.

Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team.  There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022.  They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.

The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here.  He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.

Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.  The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.

The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension.  They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well.  TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively.  They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency.  They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year.  While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener.  Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season.  They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.

The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.  This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.

The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover.  They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites.  I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.

Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game.  It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable.  They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7

This line is inflated.  Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson.  Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson.  That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks.  This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks.  That's just not the case.

We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career.  Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was.  Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.

I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself.  He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team.  The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.

If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff.  I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense.  Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs.  Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2

The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.  Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons.  He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.  

Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball.  And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.

The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020.  He played just one game last year with a back injury.  He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL.  Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.

Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL.  The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area.  They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety.  He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL.  They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner.  He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.

I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season.  Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014.  All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them.  He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone.  Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.

The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good.  The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers.  Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7

The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year.  I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect.  Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.

I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU.  But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.

There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky.  Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years.  Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field.  He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.

Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago.  They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens.  Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason.  But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them.  T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.

I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals.  Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog.  Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year.  Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him.  They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.

The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time.  They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded.  The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round.  RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.

Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games.  The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety.  Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons.  Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.

Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season.  They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season.  That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them.  Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league.  He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.

You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him.  He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team.  I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.

The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL.  They also have two of the best defenses in the league.  That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.

Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season.  Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road.  The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season.  They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.

Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter.  He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson.  The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability.  Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.

Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8

The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season.  But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason.  Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year.  Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors.  Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.

Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names.  Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year.  Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team.  Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year.  They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18.  Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan.  Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.  He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.

The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone.  The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season.  They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue.  He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.

The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games.  Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2  ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes.  Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion.  They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year.  They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.

Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense.  Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks.  The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans.  They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.

The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.  Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring.  The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp.  Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener.  Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.

I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason.  Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5

Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!

The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.

After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs.  Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.

Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs.  They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl.  Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here.  He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.

But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played.  The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game.  Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have.  For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week. 

The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs.  This will be their toughest test of the postseason.  The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well.  And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.

Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season.  Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game.  There's value with Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.

My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)

1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120

2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130

3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140

4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125

5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115

6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145

7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105

8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135

9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110

10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115

11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120

12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145

13. 1st play of game: Pass +110

14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105

15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season.  They were a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys and Packers, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Rams as well. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  

They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.  They went on the road again and trailing 10-3 late in the 4th quarter, got a blocked punt return TD to tie the game, eventually beating the Packers on a game-winning field goal at the gun.  Holding the Cowboys to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points is no small feat and shows how good this defense is playing right now.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games.  And with an elite defense and running game, we've seen before that teams can make deep runs in the playoffs.  The 49ers feel like they are playing with house money with the way they have beaten the Rams, Cowboys and Packers in three straight tight, one-score games.  They feel like they can win in any situation now, and getting 3.5 points with them here is a great value.

The 49ers simply own the Rams.  They have gone 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five outright wins as underdogs.  Their defense is a nightmare matchup for the Rams as they have held them to 311 or fewer yards in five of those six meetings, including 265 and 278 in their two meetings this season.  They can get pressure by rushing only four, and Matthew Stafford has been great against the blitz, which is why he dissected both the Cardinals and Rams, two blitz-heavy teams.  He won't have that luxury against the 49ers, who can get pressure with four with their dominant defensive line.

The 49ers have proven they can run on the Rams as they have rushed for at least 107 yards in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That allows them to control the ball and keep the Rams off the field.  Jimmy G is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing the ball over the middle, and the Rams are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending passes over the middle.  That's another reason this is a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.

The Rams will have zero home-field advantage in this game, which is why this line shouldn't be 3.5.  It should be closer to PK.  You could hear the 49ers fans over the Rams fans in that Week 18 game, and this is a short trip for 49ers fans again to Los Angeles.  They will make the trip, and this will be more of a 50-50 crowd than this line indicates.  I also love the fact that the 49ers have an extra day to get healthy and prepare for the Rams after playing on Saturday, while the Rams played on Sunday.  San Francisco needs this extra time playing in its 4th consecutive road game, and the short travel doesn't really make this a road game.

Don't buy into the hype that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season.  Teams that are 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent have gone 14-7 SU in the playoffs when facing them for a 3rd time.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The 49ers are 8-3 SU in road games this season and have played their best football on the highway.  Their run continues as they just seem to be a team of destiny this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd.  The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points.  It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54.  The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds.  That will help us cash this OVER as well.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing.  

He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players.  This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting.

The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball.  They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati.  The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents.  Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season.  Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers.

Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games.  The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense.  Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense.

The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch.  Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets.  In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs.  Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense.  After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career.

The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.  The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points.  The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again.  The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well.  The books have set this number too low at 54 here.

The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City.  Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* 49ers/Packers FOX Saturday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +6

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Green Bay Packers just as they were against the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of their last six games.  That rushing attack consistently gives the Packers fits in the playoffs, which is a big reason Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 all-time against the 49ers in the postseason.  And the Packers rank 30th in defensive success rate against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for them.  Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in allowing 4.7 yards per carry.

The 49ers can take the same game plan they had against the Cowboys, which is control the game with their running game and play keep away from a potent Dallas defense.  And holding the Cowboys to just 17 points is no small feat as Dallas was the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season.  This defense can hold Aaron Rodgers and company in check as well, while the offense can control the ball with their running game and timely passes from Jimmy G.

Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are a big reason this line is as high as it is.  But Jimmy G just said Wednesday he is good to go, the 49ers certainly expect to have Bosa available, and Warner was seen jumping around on the sidelines late in that Dallas game so he will probably be a go as well.  I think as the injury report looks better for the 49ers late in the week, this line will drop as +6 is not the right line.  

These teams are pretty evenly matched and the Packers should be closer to a 3-point favorite given the bye week and the home-field advantage.  Consider the 49ers were 3-point home favorites in their first meeting this season, so this is a 9-point adjustment and clearly shows there's value on the road dog.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight January games.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  Everyone is making too big a deal of the Packers playing at home at Lambeau Field in the cold.  But the 49ers are actually built for cold outdoor games with the better running game and defense than the Packers.  They have been a much better bet on the road than they have been at home in recent years, and they just went on the road and beat the Rams and Cowboys both.  They are getting disrespected again here and will continue playing with that chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous road warriors.  Roll with the 49ers Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47

It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday.  Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds.  These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game.  They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch.

The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy.  Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season.  But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return.  And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week.  They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable.  The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones.

Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games.  The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Cardinals/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Rams simply own the Arizona Cardinals, and Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury.  The Rams are 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals with all nine wins coming by 7 points or more.  The one loss came this season when the Rams were coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs the previous week and were in a letdown spot early in the season.

That was back when Arizona was playing well.  The Cardinals have fallen flat on their faces since, and it has been yet another late-season collapse under Kingsbury.  He has been knowing for this dating back to his time at Texas Tech, and as you can tell he is one of my least favorite head coaches in the NFL.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five gams overall.  That includs an upset loss to Seattle as a 5.5-point home favorite, an upset loss to a short-handed Colts team as a 3-point favorite, an upset loss at Detroit by 18 as 13-point favorites and an upset home loss to the Rams by 7 as 3-point favorites.  The Rams made the proper adjustments in that 2nd meeting in a 30-23 win, and I trust McVay to have the right game plan to beat Arizona again.

It's not all Kingsbury's fault, though.  Injuries have played a big factor as they have been without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt.  The defense has really taken a hit without Watt, and the offense is not close to how explosive it was when Hopkins was healthy.  Both James Conner and Chase Edmunds are banged up going into the playoffs, as is WR Rondale Moore with two of those three questionable.

The Rams have finished the season strong by going 5-1 SU in their final six games.  They won four of those five games by 7 points or more.  The lone loss came in OT to the 49ers in Week 18, which was predictable as there was a lot more at stake for the 49ers than there was for the Rams, and the 49ers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  A big reason the Rams are playing so well down the stretch is because they are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs, unlike Arizona.

Yards per play is one of the most important stats in predicting NFL games.  The Rams are elite in this aspect, ranking 4th at 6.0 yards per play on offense and 10th at 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the league.  The Cardinals are 18th at 5.4 yards per play allowed on defense and 15th at 5.6 yards per play on offense, only outgaining teams by 0.2 yards per play.

The Rams don't always have the biggest home-field advantage in the regular season, but it will be a much bigger advantage in these playoffs.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season as the coach of Arizona.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC opponents.  Roll with the Rams Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed.  They have played essentially six straight playoffs games.  They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.

Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three.  The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB.  The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory.  Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good.  That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.

Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs.  And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards.  Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.

We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9.  Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders.  And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers.  Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score.  In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.

This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead.  Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score.  The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.

This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run.  The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday.  Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch.  The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.

Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003.  Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.  The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City.  We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).

While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.

The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards.  That's a fellow NFC West team.  The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games.  They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.

The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game.  He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus.  Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus.   That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys.  The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game.  Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.  

Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw.  These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game.  Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games.  Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games.  RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.

The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game.  Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4

The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL.  Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams.  Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense.  Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.

The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season.  Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.

The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times.  The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since.  After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.

That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards.  Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball.  Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo.  Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically.  The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012.  Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.

The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars.  Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games.  The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm.  They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.

The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons.  Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game.  That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries.  The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.

Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games.  The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards.  Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents.  Take the Bills Saturday.

20* Raiders/Bengals NFL Wild Card Opener on Cincinnati -5

The Cincinnati Bengals are rested and ready to pick up where they left off when they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games prior to Week 18 to seal the AFC North title.  They beat the Broncos 15-10 as 3-point road underdogs, the Ravens 41-21 as 7.5-point home favorites and the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home dogs to clinch the title.

The Bengals decided to rest their starters in a 16-21 loss at Cleveland in Week 18.  That was a wise move by Zac Taylor, who is among the favorites to win Coach of the Year.  Of course, franchise QB Joe Burrow was banged up against the Chiefs and Joe Mixon was out with COVID, so it was an easy decision.  But now the Bengals come back fresh and primed for a big effort at home against the Raiders on Saturday.

Conversely, this couldn't be a worse spot for the Raiders.  They had to win four straight games to close the season which were all basically playoff games.  All four wins came by 4 points or less as they were simply good at winning coin flips.  But they needed OT to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and now the NFL has done them no favors by making them play the first wild card game Saturday afternoon.  They are gassed and have nothing left in the tank for the Bengals here.

The Raiders were in a similarly tough situation when they hosted the Bengals earlier this season.  They were coming off a Sunday night game against the Chiefs and they had a Thursday game on deck against the Cowboys.  Predictably, they fell flat and were crushed 32-13 by the Bengals in Las Vegas.  I think they get crushed again here in what is actually an even worse spot for them.

The Raiders have the worst run defense of all the playoff teams according to pro football focus.  Joe Mixon rushed for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders in that first meeting.  And you know Joe Burrow is going to have another great game as he has been on fire down the stretch and has that big game experience by leading LSU to a national title.  This playoff atmosphere won't phase him.  

Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Ravens in Week 16 and followed it up with 446 yards and four scores without a pick against the Chiefs in Week 17.  He now has an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while completing at least 68% of his passes in all four games.  He is probably the single-most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now.

Las Vegas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog over a division opponent.  The Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4

The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs.  They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in.  The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams.  But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.

This is a terrible spot for the Falcons.  They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week.  There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission.  Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.

And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it.  They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season.  The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago.  They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.

The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players.  In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.

The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company.  The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.

New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense.  The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense.  The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.

New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +5.5

The San Francisco 49ers are in must-win mode this weekend.  They need to win to get into the playoffs or have the Saints lose to the Falcons.  The Saints are 4-point favorites over the Falcons, so the 49ers don't want to rely on that.  They want to handle their business here Sunday and win this game outright against the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams have a lot less at stake.  They just have seeding in the NFC on the line.  I can't see them being max motivated here.  Plus, the Rams have been fortunate to win their last two games against the Vikings and Ravens as Matthew Stafford has committed six turnovers.  He isn't playing well, and he won't have much success against one of the best defenses in the NFL here.

Indeed, the 49ers not only have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.8 YPP).  That is the sign of an elite team and one that is way better than their 9-7 record would indicate.  The 49ers are led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 312.8 yards per game allowed.  They are outgaining their opponents by nearly 60 yards per game on the season, which is better than the Rams mark of 40 yards per game.

Simply put, Kyle Shanahan owns his disciple Sean McVay.  The 49ers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs.  That includes their 31-10 home win as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Stafford went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in that defeat.

The Rams are 0-6 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in thier last six January games.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears are quietly playing their best football of the season here down the stretch.  They have won two in a row over the Seahawks as 7-point dogs and the Giants 29-3 as 7-point favorites with two different quarterbacks.  It hasn't mattered who is under center for them because their defense has been elite.

The Bears have now outgained six of their last eight opponents all by 54 yards or more.  The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 92 yards at Green Bay and by 14 yards at Seattle.  The Bears have the 5th-ranked unit in total defense at 315.8 yards per game allowed.

Chicago wants revenge from a 9-17 home loss to the Vikings in which they deserved to win on December 20th.  They had 370 total yards and held the Vikings to just 193 yards, outgaining them by 177 yards.  But they failed time and time again in the red zone.  They haven't forgotten, and I like their chances of winning this game outright let alone covering this spread Sunday as they get their revenge.

This is a terrible spot for the Vikings.  They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their emphatic 37-10 loss at Green Bay last week.  Their defense was shredded for 481 total yards and they were without Kirk Cousins due to COVID.  I just can't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Bears.  They won't care about this game nearly as much as they are leading on in the media.  The Bears will show up just as they have every week here down the stretch.

Plays against home teams (Minnesota) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 60-22 (73.2%) ATS since 1983.  The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week.  Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER.

It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do.  The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts.  He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well.

This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs.  Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season.  The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go.

Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall.  Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall.  If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will.  It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine.

Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points.  They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season.  This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Browns/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

Ben Roethlisberger has hinted that this will be his final home game.  He would love nothing more than to beat the Cleveland Browns one last time and continue his dominance of them.  Big Ben is 25-2-1 all-time against the Browns straight up.  And we are getting 3.5 points with him and the Steelers at home here where they can still lose by 3 and cover.

This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  Cleveland was a 5.5-point closing favorite in the first meeting, losing 15-10 outright to the Steelers at home.  Now they are a 3.5-point road favorite and after taking a ton of money already this week as Pittsburgh actually opened the favorite.  This despite the Steelers being one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.

Admittedly, the Browns are getting healthier this week and are probably the better team on a neutral.  But this line has shifted too much in their direction.  Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted as he threw four interceptions against the Packers last week and has been terrible all season as he has battled through injury.  I trust Big Ben more, and I trust that it will be a raucous atmosphere for his final home game and his players will have his back as they are fighting for their playoff lives right now.

There's actually a chance the Browns will be eliminated from division contention even before they play this game, which would take the wind out of their sails.  They sit at 7-8 this season and in last place in the division.  I think there's a good chance Cincinnati (8-7) or Baltimore (8-7) pull the upset this week in their respective games.  And Pittsburgh is going to be alive for the division title no matter what happens on Sunday before this game is played.

The Browns haven't won any of their last six games by more than 3 points.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a road loss.  The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 division games.  Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Pittsburgh is 19-0 SU in its last 19 Monday Night Football home games with its last loss in 1991!  Bet the Steelers Monday.

Note: The Browns did get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday which is why this line has moved from Cleveland -3.5 to +2.5.  I would still take the Steelers as a 15* play at -2.5.  Glad we got in early at +3.5 and beat this line move!

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +7

I faded the Seahawks with success last week as the Bears won outright as 7-point underdogs at Seattle.  I'm fading the Seahawks again for a number of the same reasons this week.  They are 5-10 this season and will finish with a losing record for the first time with Russell Wilson.  Seattle won't be going to the playoffs, and they are simply playing out the string now with zero motivation.  They can't be laying 7 points to the Detroit Lions given their lack of motivation.  

The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL as it is.  They rank 31st in total defense at 385.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total offense at 305.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by over 80 yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL this season.

The Lions continue to fight every week.  They were without Jared Goff last week and covered in a 16-20 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point dogs.  They actually outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and should have won.  There was a chance they would get Goff back this week, but even without him they'll be able to run the football as they have a healthy De'Andre Swift back at RB.

The Lions are much better than their 2-12-1 record and continue to show up every week for Dan Campbell.  They have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have only lost once by more than 4 points during this run.

The Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games.  They have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL.  You can definitely run on the Seahawks as they give up 115 rushing yards per game.  Detroit's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as well.  They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Lions will show up this week, and I don't think the same can be said for the Seahawks.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week.  They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup.  The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER.

The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game.  They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game.  The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets.

New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins.  They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week.  They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful.  They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well.

Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay.  Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win.  The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 8-7 on the season and knocking on the door of making the playoffs.  They have a lot to play for right now and that motivation is a big reason I am backing them as short road favorites over Washington this week.

Philadelphia is very close to being on a 6-0 run.  Its only loss came when it committed four turnovers against the Giants on the road in a 7-13 loss, losing the turnover battle 4-0.  They avenged that loss last week in a 34-10 home win over the Giants.  They also beat the Broncos by 17, the Saints by 11, the Jets by 15 and Washington by 10 during this run so all five wins have been by double-digits.

Philadelphia was a 10-point home favortie against Washington two weeks ago in that 27-17 win that was even more dominant than the final score showed.  They racked up 519 total yards on Washington and outgained them by 282 yards.  They should be more than 4.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment down.

Washington has zero home-field advantage right now because they are 6-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention.  They had the wind knocked out of their sails by the Eagles two weeks ago, and that showed last week as they came back and got blown out 56-14 by the Cowboys.  They gave up 505 more yards to the Cowboys and were outgained by 240 yards.  They were seen fighting on the sidelines.  This team just wants the season to be over right now.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Football Team has a ton of injuries and COVID issues which is a big reason they have struggled so badly of late.  They will be without RB Antonio Gibson among several others this week against the Eagles.  I just don't see them showing up this week, and even if they do they aren't good enough to hang with Philadelphia.

Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The Football Team is 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Plays on favorites (Philadelphia) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a bad defensive team (27 PPG or more), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5

Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.  These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming.

Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week.  Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.  They won't be holding anything back on offense this week.

Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory.  He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout.

The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately.  The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line.  The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs.

The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents.  The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The New Orleans Saints have been hit hard by COVID this week.  They will be without both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at quarterback after they were already without Jameis Winston.  Now they will be starting 4th-stringer Ian Book, and they just signed Blake Bortles on Friday as insurance.

Sean Payton was allowed to return to the team on Friday.  But three other coaches who tested positive aren't expected to coach Monday.  On Saturday, DE Carl Granderson became the 16th player to test positive for COVID this week and the 19th person on the roster or the coaching staff to test positive since Tuesday.  

The Saints have two available DE's on the active roster for Monday's game; Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and Davenport is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries.  S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, T Ryan Ramczyk, LB Kaden Elliss, G James Carpenter, T Jordan Mills, S Jeff Heath, DT Christian Ringo, TE's Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, special teams ace J.R> Gray and RB Dwayne Washington are the others outside the quarterbacks.

Don't look now but the Miami Dolphins are back to .500 and in position to make the playoffs after their 1-7 start.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their defense is playing lights out during this stretch.  They are giving up just 11.5 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  It won't get any easier for a Saints offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in their last four games with a 4th-stringer at quarterback this week.

While the Saints are a mash unit right now, the Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And their offense gets a boost this week with the return of both WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay from the COVID list.  Waddle is crucial as he has quickly become Tua's favorite target.  He has 86 receptions for 849 yards and four touchdowns this season.  Tua is quietly playing very well with a 70% completion percentage this season.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Saints are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  And this is definitely a potential letdown spot for the Saints off their big upset win over the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  That win was aided by a ton of injuries and attrition throughout the game to Tampa's offense.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Washington/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +10

I love the spot for the Washington Football Team tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 20-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago.  So this will be their 2nd meeting in 3 weeks.  And Washington lost QB Taylor Heineke in that game to injury.  He missed last week, but he will be back this week to give the offense a boost against the Cowboys.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But they easily could have lost all three of those games.  They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers in those three games.  They beat the Saints 27-17 despite getting outgained by 28 yards.  Washington was driving to tie the game late in their 27-20 loss.  And the Cowboys only outgained the Giants by 26 yards in their 21-6 win.  They got to face backup quarterbacks in all three victories.

This Dallas offense just can't be trusted to lay this big of a number.  And their defense isn't as good as the points per game allowed would indicate.  The Cowboys rank 21st in total defense at 22nd against the pass this season.  They have simply benefited from being ball hawks, ranking 1st with 31 takeaways.  That is pretty unsustainable.

Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Dallas.  The underdog is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings.  I know the Football Team will show up today to try and beat their hated rivals in the Cowboys.  It should be good enough to stay within this inflated double-digit spread tonight.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +6.5

The Seattle Seahawks just lost 20-10 on Tuesday to the Los Angeles Rams to fall to 5-9 on the season and assure a losing record.  That defeat eliminated them from playoff contention.  I think we see them very flat Sunday against the Chicago Bears because of it as they finally won't finish .500 or better with Russell Wilson.

The fact of the matter is the Seahawks aren't the better of these two teams anyway.  Chicago is much better than its 4-10 record would indicate.  And it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bears after failing to cover the spread in five straight.  But they deserved to cover in almost all of those.

Indeed, the Bears have amazingly outgained five of their last six opponents.  They outgained the Steelers by 134 yards in their 27-29 road loss.  They outgained the Ravens by 54 yards in their 13-16 home loss.  They outgained the Lions by 139 yards in their 16-14 road win.  They outgained the Cardinals by 72 yards in their 22-33 home loss.  They did get outgained by 92 yards by the Pakcers on the road but held a 6-point halftime lead in that game.  And last week they outgained the Vikings by 177 yards in their 9-17 home loss.

At some point, the Bears are going to win the stats and the scoreboard.  I think this is the week against the Seahawks.  Chicago has the 9th-ranked defense in the NFL giving up just 326.2 yards per game.  Seattle ranks 31st in total defense, allowing 390.4 yards per game.  The Seahawks are also 30th in total offense at 303.4 yards per game, getting outgained by nearly 90 yards per game on the season.  That is the sign of a terrible team.

Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Off the loss to the Rams on Tuesday, this is a short week for the Seahawks getting only four days to get ready for the Bears.  Nick Foles is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields and could provide this Chicago offense with a spark with his ability to stretch the field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  But that won't stop them from showing up against the defending Super Bowl champion and division rival Tampa Bay Bucs today.  They would love nothing more than to beat the Bucs here Sunday.

The Panthers should be getting Sam Darnold back today which will give the offense an added dimension.  They also will have a kicker, which they didn't have against Buffalo after he got hurt in pregame, which ultimately cost them the cover.  And their best receiver in DJ Moore has been upgraded to probable today.

This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 294.4 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in passing defense, allowing just 178.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them to be able to slow down Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay passing attack.

This Bucs' offensive attack got a lot less potent in their 9-0 loss to the Saints last week.  Injuries hit them hard in that game and they aren't any better this week.  The Bucs will now be without their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.  They will also be without RB Leonard Fournette.  That's over 3,200 yards of offense and 27 combined touchdowns between those three.  Not to mention, their defense will be without S Antoine Winfield Jr, LB Lavonte David and DE Jason Pierre-Paul.  They also have a couple CB's questionable in the secondary.

Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after four or more consecutive overs.  The Panthers are 60-37 ATS in their last 97 games following a loss by 10 or more points.  The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* Browns/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -7

The Green Bay Packers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and it's a big reason they have the best record in the NFC at 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  And they have been unstoppable at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  You know it's going to be a great atmosphere for this home game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day as well.

The Browns are a mess right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two wins came against the Lions and the Ravens and their backups QB by a combined 5 points.  They lost by 38 at New England, by 6 at Baltimore and at home to the lowly Raiders by 2.  They are still missing a ton of key players, and I think they are getting too much respect with Baker Mayfield coming back because he has been terrible this season.

Green Bay is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse this season.  This is a short week for the Browns after playing on Monday, so they have just four days to get ready for the Packers.  They haven't been practicing much as a team due to all of these COVID problems, so chemistry will continue to be a problem for them.  The Packers have been in sync since Week 1.  Take the Packers Saturday.

20* 49ers/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are a freight train right now.  They are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL coming into the season but were hurt by injuries in the first half.  Now that they've been a lot healthier they are playing up to their potential.

The 49ers made easy work of the Falcons in a 31-13 home victory last week.  So they should still have plenty left in the tank for this short week game against Tennessee.  They would be bigger favorites in this game if not for the short week and the West Coast team traveling East.  But the 49ers have dominated when flying out East in recent seasons.

The Titans were grossly overvalued due to a great start this season behind Derrick Henry.  But since Henry went down, the Titans have been awful.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are broken on offense, scoring 23 or fewer points in five straight games and an average of just 16.4 points per game in their last five.

The Titans have passed for less than 200 yards in five of their last six games because they have also been without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones at times.  Brown should be back this week, but Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and is questionable.  They still aren't the same team without Henry, Brown and Jones all healthy and they are only likely to have one of the three.

Tennessee has been relying heavily on running the football offensively even without Henry.  But that's not going to work against the 49ers.  They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last six games overall.  And the Titans have struggled despite playing five straight bad offensive teams in the Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots.  The Titans will be without two starters on the offensive line as well in Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a 49ers offense that is rolling since getting George Kittle and Deebo Samuel healthy.  The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in six straight games and an average of 29.2 points per game.  Samuel has seven rushing touchdowns and 1,088 receiving yards on the season.  Kittle has 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* Washington/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week and expected to get Jalen Hurts back at quarterback.  They should be as healthy as they have been all season and get their dynamic RB duo of Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard back.

The Eagles are really playing well right now in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all three victories coming by double-digits.  The lone loss was fluky as they were -4 in turnovers against the Giants and only lost by 6 on the road.  They clearly should have won that game.

Now they take on a banged-up Washington team that has as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  QB Taylor Heineke and WR Terry McLaurin both left the Dallas game last week with injuries.  Both are questionable to return this week.

They have 10 players in COVID protocol including DL Matt Ionnidis, backup QB Kyle Allen, CB Kendall Fuller, DL Jonathan Allen and a couple linebackers.  They are already without Chase Young and cannot afford to lose all these guys up front.  They will get some players back that they wouldn't have had if this game was played on Sunday, but the Eagles were double-digit favorites then.  Now we are getting the Eagles as less than a TD favorite here.

This is a tired Washington team that has played five straight games that were decided by 10 points or fewer, including four one-score games in their last four.  But they were getting blown out by Dallas last week before a late rally.  I don't see them rallying against the Eagles this week.

The Eagles are ready to make a playoff push as they get three winnable home games plus Washington twice down the stretch.  They have rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games now and should be able to run all over this depleted Washington front seven.  The Eagles are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Eagles Tuesday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks +7

This is already a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Rams.  They are coming off an upset road win over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.  Now they stay within the division to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is starting to play up to their potential as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Now things have really gotten worse for the Rams.  They now have placed 25 players on the COVID list, including CB Jalen Ramsey, WR Odell Beckham Jr., LB Von Miller and four other starters.  They will get some guys back that they wouldn't have had if they played Sunday, but they still shouldn't be 7-point favorites in this game.

The Seahawks want revenge from a 26-17 home loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season.  Russell Wilson was knocked out of that game early and replaced by Geno Smith.  I like their chances for getting revenge and covering at the very least considering they are the much healthier team and playing up to their potential the last two weeks.

Indeed, the Seahawks are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games.  They upset the 49ers 30-23 as 2.5-point home underdogs.  They followed it up with a dominant 33-13 win at Houston as 9.5-point favorites behind 453 yards of offense.  Russell Wilson is starting to play like his old self as he has gotten healthier, and the Seahawks have rushed for 146 and 193 yards in their last two games, respectively.

Pete Carroll is 49-28 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Seahawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Bet the Seahawks Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -5.5

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best 6-7 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have held at least a 6-point lead in all 13 games this season and are clearly better than their record.  But they are still alive for the playoffs, and this is a must-win game for them Monday night in Chicago.

Minnesota got Dalvin Cook back from injury last week and he ran wild on the Steelers in a 36-28 victory last Thursday.  The Vikings had 458 total yards and a 29-0 lead on the Steelers, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Now this is like a mini-bye week for the Vikings, so they should be fresh and ready to go with three extra days' rest.  They are also one of the healthier teams in the NFL.

The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have 12 players on the COVID list and three coordinators now.  Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor were all working remotely Thursday.  They are likely to be without WR Allen Robinson and DEB Eddie Jackson among many other key players.

This is a bad spot for the Bears as it is even without the COVID news.  At 4-9 now, they have no chance of making the playoffs.  They just blew a 27-21 halftime lead against the Packers and were outscored 24-3 after intermission in a 45-30 loss.  They were fortunate to even be in that game thanks to several big special teams plays.  They won't be so fortunate against this motivated Vikings team to keep this one close for long.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Take the Vikings Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +9

The San Francisco 49ers were fortunate to win last week at Cincinnati. The Bengals gave that game away by muffing two punts in their own territory. The 49ers recovered all four fumbles in the game. And they still needed overtime to beat the Bengals, 26-23.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the 49ers even though I like this team. They are now laying way too many points at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are still in playoff contention at 6-7 this season. And while the 49ers have struggled at home in recent years, the Falcons have been a great bet on the road.

Indeed, the Falcons are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS away from home this season. They have upset wins over the Giants, Dolphins, Saints and Panthers. And they have a great path to the playoffs if they can pull another upset here because they have Detroit on deck next week.

The 49ers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. San Francisco is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers ML +103

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-6-1 and are playing for their playoff lives this week.  Look for a big effort from them.  I always like backing Mike Tomlin off a loss and as an underdog.  And I think the wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.

The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and are expected to have T.J. Watt this week, one of the best defensive players in the NFL.  The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have 20 players out and another eight questionable.

Tennessee's offense has hit the skids since losing both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown to injury, their two best players.  In their last five games, the Titans managed just 194 yards against the Rams, 264 yards against the Saints, 13 points in an upset loss to the Texans as 10.5-point favorites, 13 points against New England and just 263 yards against Jacksonville.

The Steelers have managed 300 or more yards in five straight games offensively.  They have by far the better offense right now, and I rank these teams pretty even defensively.  Plus you have to give the Steelers a few points for home-field advantage and simply needing the game more.  It all adds up to the wrong team being favored.

Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 35 points or more.  Tennessee is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +13

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have not quit and continue to get the money for backers.  And their 38-10 loss to Denver was very misleading last week.  They were only outgained by 42 yards despite missing a ton of players due to COVID, but they had two turnovers in the red zone.

Now the Lions will get back several players they were missing last week.  And they will relish this opportunity to try and beat the team with the best record in the NFC in the Arizona Cardinals.  The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to improve to 8-5 ATS this season.  So despite their 1-11-1 SU record, they continue fighting for bettors' money.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS on the road this season with all seven wins by double-digits.  Odds are they can't keep this streak going now that the books have over-adjusted for it this week.  The Cardinals will be without their best receiver in De'Andre Hopkins, who suffered a possible season-ending injury last week.

They also have their top two running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds questionable.  Not to mention, this is a terrible spot for the Cardinals.  They are on a short week after losing 30-23 at home tot he Rams on Monday Night Football.  And they have a big game on deck against the Colts on Saturday.  They will be just looking to get in and get out with a win against the Lions with zero incentive to run up the score.

Detroit is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 28 points or more.  Arizona is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7.5 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -130

The Indianapolis Colts might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They are just 7-6 but much better than that record.  They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 7 points per game on the season with a balanced offense and a very good defense that allows just 21.8 points per game.

The Colts opened 0-3 amid injuries and poor play.  They have since gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and are very close to being on a 10-game winning streak.  They blew a 19-point lead and lost in OT to the Ravens, lost in OT at home to the Titans after another late blown lead, and blew a 14-point lead to the Bucs in a last-second loss.  The fact that they competed with those three teams and took them all to the wire tells all you need to know about the Colts' potential.

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.  They aren't nearly as good as their 9-4 record would indicate.  And the bye actually came at a bad time for them because they had all the momentum, stopping the Bills twice in the Red Zone to preserve a 14-10 victory last time out.  They have feasted on the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  They come back down to reality this week against the Colts, who beat the Bills 41-15 on the road a couple weeks ago.

Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a division game.  Indianapolis is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol.  Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength.  They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID.

"The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said.  "You talk about inside dominance.  It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him."

Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score.  They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago.  This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish.

These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense.  Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category.

This has been an OVER series.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points.  That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards.  They should have scored more than 24 points.  Both offenses should top 24 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams.  They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week.  They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards.  They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers.  They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy.

The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season.  They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7).  The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner.  The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory.  The other win was against the Texans.  They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home.

That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season.  They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments.  The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits.

Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona.  The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53

It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday.  The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds.  It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL.   The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season.

And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds.  And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short.

The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense.  They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season.  Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season.

The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL.  His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week.  The Bills will get their offense going this week.  They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season.

They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary.  Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already.  The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone.  The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs.  I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both.

Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game.  The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs.  The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week.  This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys.  The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset.

This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week.  They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up.

This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be.  They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games.  Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  They will be out for revenge as well.

Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats.  The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  This is too big of an adjustment.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2

This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns.  I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week.  But that's the situation for the Browns.  They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week.  And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye.  So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks.  That's a huge advantage for them.

The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score.  That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens.  The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime.  Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers.  

They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line.  Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much.  He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games.  This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns.

The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record.  They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful.  They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed.

The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season.  They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.

We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad.  Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home.

But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens.  Their last two road performances were miserable.  They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period.  They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more.

Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them.  And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson.  Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week.

The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team.  They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play.  But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings.

Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score.  Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score.  So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field.  But that's just not the case.  The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight.

Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss.

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Vikings Thursday.

20* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -2.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with most their wins coming via blowout.  But it has been about as an easy a schedule as possible.  They beat the banged-up Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers, the banged-up Browns, the banged-up Falcons and the banged-up Titans.  This is a huge step up in class for them Monday night.

The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.  They bounced back from a bad loss to the Colts where they had four turnovers with a 31-6 road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving.  Now they have had extra rest and will be ready to go Monday night with a great atmosphere in Buffalo with first place on the line in the AFC East.  We'll get an 'A' effort from the Bills, and their 'A' game is much better than that of the Patriots.

New England relies heavily on running the football.  Well, the Bills have allowed 79 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last five games overall.  They key to their run defense is LB Tremaine Edmunds.  The Bills only give up 3.6 yards per carry with him on the field.  Edmunds is healthy now, and this is one of the healthiest rosters in the entire NFL.

I've heard plenty about the weather in Buffalo Monday night being a reason bettors are on the Patriots.  I disagree that the temps in the 20s with near-20 MPH winds helps New England.  I think it actually favors the Bills, who have a strong-armed quarterback in Josh Allen who can cut through any wind, and also beat the Patriots with his legs.  

Mac Jones is more of a finesse quarterback who will struggle more with the wind than Allen will.  The Bills are a better rushing team than the Patriots, too.  They average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry, while the Patriots average 115 yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  New England is only outgaining its opponents by 38.7 yards per game, while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 113.7 yards per game.  The Bills are clearly the better team and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites here.

Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Bills are 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 4 yards per play or less last game.  The Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Patriots come back down to reality with this big step up in competition this week.  Roll with the Bills Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49

These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday.  It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH.  The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season.  Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season.  Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run.  They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall.

The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game.  Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns.  The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses.  Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11

Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season.  He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores.  With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger.  Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful.

The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open.  That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread.

The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.  The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness.

Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis.  So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year.  They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored.  The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years.  But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10

This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat.  That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals.  They will be overlooking the Texans.

We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago.  They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs.  And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs.  They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago.

This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career.  The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers.  They have not quit on that side of the ball.  Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too.

Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation.  But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed.  Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest.  But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips.  Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did.

Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins -4

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  They went on to beat the Jets 24-17.  And last week they crushed the Panthers 33-10 at home and held them to just 198 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  And last week he went 27-of-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown without a pick against a very good Carolina defense.  That's 81% completions for Tua over the last three weeks.  Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward.  

Now they take on the Giants, who have about as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  It got even worse with QB Daniel Jones ruled out this week, so Mike Glennon will get the start in his place.  They will also be without WR's Sterling Shepard and Kedarius Toney with several other key players either ruled out or questionable.  They have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL.

Miami has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks and trusting their lockdown secondary, which has been the key to their turnaround defensively.  The statue, Glennon, is going to be under duress all game, and he doesn't have the healthy playmakers around him to make the Dolphins pay for blitzing.  They will continue their recent surge with a 5th straight win and cover in blowout fashion over the short-handed Giants on Sunday.  They will be up against a shaky New York offense that has managed just 264, 215 and 245 total yards in the three weeks, respectively.

The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50

This game definitely sets up to be a shootout.  I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points.  There won't be as many defensive touchdowns.  But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem.

The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to.  Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback.  It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.

The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week.  They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5

The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four.  They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.

This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo.  I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.

Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation.  They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week.  They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK

The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.

But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks.  In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.

Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going.  The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games.  They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.  

The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention.  Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests.  They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game.  To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season.  Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.  Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  Bet Washington Monday.

20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3

The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals.  They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards.  Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards.  Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.  

But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record.  Their numbers are elite.  They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now.  And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed.  They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers.  The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season.  And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers.  And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage.  Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast.  There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.

Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more.  I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog.  Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback.  And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch.  They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company.  It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.

The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less.  That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory.  I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.

The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession.  They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week.  Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints.  And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football.  That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.  

The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home.  They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.

The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  

Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500.  This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.

The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return.  Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites.  Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm.  We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago.  The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite.  The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee.  Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games.  And the Colts have a great defense and running game.  They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.

That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.  They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season.  And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.

I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either.  The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season.  Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles.  They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10.  This might be their toughest road test of the season.

Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game.  They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning.  And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.

The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6

The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season.  They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers.  The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.

The Bills have four losses this season.  They are 3-0 ATS following a loss.  After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week.  After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week.  And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.

The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB.  They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.

Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills.  And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week.  Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well.  And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.

Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.  The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51

The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury.  They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.

The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four.  Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well.  Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable.  But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game.  They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.

The Raiders are also improved defensively this season.  They give up just 352.7 yards per game.  They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott.  They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts.  Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards.  They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year.  They are just 3-6 ATS this season.  After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort.  Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.

Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants.  This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players.  They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury.  He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.  Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.

Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs.  Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs.  And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.

The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out.  Always bet them as a road underdogs.  Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay.  Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3

You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible.  This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer.  Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets.  He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league.  They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.  

The offense will be a mess with him at the helm.  And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson.  They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.

New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game.  This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL.  The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.

Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory.  His finger looked absolutely fine.  He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt.  He also scored a rushing touchdown.  And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.

This  Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year.  They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers.    And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.

Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road.  The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback.  There's just nothing to like about them right now.  

Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season.  They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record.  But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule.  After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in.  Everything is still in front of them.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5

This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown.  They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year.  I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.  

This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13.  The injuries are piling up.  They have 23 players on injured reserve.  They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far.  LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.

The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense.  They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards.  They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory.  It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points.  And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.

The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1.  They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort.  It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor.  He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye.  And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.

Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points.  And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone.  They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here.  I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983.  This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins.  It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5

The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced.  Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets.  Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse.  The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too.  The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.

The Colts have played a much tougher schedule.  And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start.  The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads.  So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.

The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season.  They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense.  And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back.  There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts.  The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.

One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year.  They actually deserved to win that game outright.  They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards.  They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.

The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  

I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers.  They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week.  The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score.  Take the Colts Sunday.

20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL.  I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.

Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week.  And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results.  A team is never as good or bad as they played last week.  And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.

These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams.  And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one.  Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas.  And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.  

This is just how the NFL works.  You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value.  The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4.  So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.

Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points.  I think this game is decided by one score either way.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers.  The entire world, including myself, were on them last week.  I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment.  But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.

Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.  Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.

Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week.  They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either.  And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.  The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday.  He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay.  Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.

The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games.  They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense.  Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams.  The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1.  And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.

The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value.  The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites.  They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers.  And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green.  Colt McCoy had a career game.

I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat.  And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable.  Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.

This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum.  But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover.  Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500.  And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.

The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week.  Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.

Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game.  They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play.  They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold.  The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.

This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals.  They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans.  They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall.  Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week.  They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six.  Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.

Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites.  Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season.  They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.

Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least.  They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to.  They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.

Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season.  The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints.  They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.

That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense.  They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week.  Chris Godwin is also questionable.  So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season.  Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Washington Sunday.