05-08-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -1 |
Top |
86-87 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -1 Bottom Line: I fully expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight following such an ugly performance in Game 4. Boston is only 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. The Celtics are also only 7-19 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are also on a stellar 18-6 ATS run in home games in the first round of the playoffs, winning these contests by an average score of 90.9 to 83.2. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog while the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. Take Atlanta.
|
05-08-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -10 |
|
87-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Pacers -10 Bottom Line: The Pacers won Games 2 and 3 by 15 and 23 points, and I expect them to close out the series with another double-digit beatdown. Indiana won't let its foot off the gas tonight knowing what happened when it did Saturday. Orlando is on a lousy 15-35 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive home losses and a poor 14-30 ATS skid off a close home loss by 3 points or less.
|
05-07-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
97-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 50 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +1.5 Bottom Line: I fully expect the Grizzlies to bounce back from Saturday's 1-point loss. They are 53-36 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons, 39-26 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 33-19 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. In addition, Memphis is 33-18 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.0 points or less under coach Hollins. Take Memphis.
|
05-07-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +8.5 |
|
87-81 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Jazz +8.5 Bottom Line: I took the Knicks +8.5 Sunday as I knew they would fight hard to fend off elimination on their home floor. I'll grab the Jazz +8.5 in a similar situation today. Utah is a rock solid 25-9 at home on the season. Also, it is 8-6 in its last 14 home games versus San Antonio with 3 of those 6 losses coming by 7 or fewer points. Grab the points.
|
05-06-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Lakers +2.5 Bottom Line: The Lakers didn't show up ready to play in Game 3 and were beaten badly. Prior to that, however, they had won 4 straight versus Denver by at least 4 points. LA is the more talented team, and I expect it to flex its muscles in this bounce back spot. The Lakers have covered the spread 6 times in their past 7 games following a loss of greater than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that responds following subpar efforts. Look for LA to respond here.
|
05-06-12 |
Miami Heat v. New York Knicks +8.5 |
|
87-89 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Knicks +8.5 Bottom Line: The Knicks are showing value at home where they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games. NY is also 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a home loss in which it was held to less than 80 points. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Prior to Game 3, the Knicks had a 5-point win over the Heat and an 8-point loss in their two most recent home contests in the series. We'll take the points.
|
05-06-12 |
Chicago Bulls +3.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
82-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Bulls +3.5 Bottom Line: The Bulls are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss and 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Chicago doesn't have Rose and likely won't have Noah, but it still has enough to even this series with Deng, Boozer, Hamilton, Gibson and Lucas among others.
|
05-05-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +6 |
|
102-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Jazz +6 Bottom Line: The Jazz are 25-8 at home on the season and check into this contest riding a 6-game home winning streak. Also, the Spurs have only defeated them by more than 6 points 3 times in the last 13 meetings in Salt Lake City. With this in mind, Utah is showing solid value at this number. San Antonio is on an 0-4-1 ATS slide in the postseason as a favorite of 5-10.5 points.
|
05-05-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks +2 |
|
103-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Mavs +2 Bottom Line: The defending NBA champs have far too much pride to roll over tonight. They'll show up in this do-or-die contest, and I like them to stay alive. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinal games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or fewer.
|
05-05-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187 |
Top |
86-87 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy "Total" Blowout on Memphis/LAC UNDER 187 Bottom Line: We struck gold with the under in last night's Bulls/76ers matchup and I have this one coming in way under the number as well. Memphis is 11-3 UNDER in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. We've only seen an average of 180.1 total points scored in these games. Plus, LAC is 17-6 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are fresh and both teams will be gunning for the series lead. We'll bet the under in what should be a ferocious defensive battle.
|
05-05-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic +5 |
Top |
101-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic +5 Bottom Line: With Indiana entering off consecutive double-digit wins and covers, we can be certain that it is being overvalued. In fact, the Pacers are just 10-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average of 4.2 points in these games. The Pacers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Value lies with the home dog here.
|
05-04-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -3.5 |
|
84-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets -3.5 Bottom Line: The Lakers can't be trusted here as they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Lakers are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Expect Denver to come through in Game 3.
|
05-04-12 |
Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
74-79 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *Primetime Punisher* on Bulls +1.5 Bottom Line: The Bulls get the call in Game 3 as they are 7-0 ATS when out to avenge a loss they suffered to a team this season. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 12.4 points.
|
05-04-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 179 |
Top |
74-79 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179 Bottom Line: I really like this one to finish at least 10 points under the number in what should be a defensive battle, and we have history on our side here. Playing the under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less (Chicago in this case) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 55-25 mark since 1996. We have only seen an average of 169.7 total points scored in this situation. Also, playing the under on any team in a playoff series that is tied is 76-38 the last 5 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in Bulls' last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Under is also 6-1 in the 76ers' last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.
|
05-03-12 |
Miami Heat v. New York Knicks +6 |
Top |
87-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +6 Bottom Line: The Knicks are showing good value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog. It is also important to note that New York is an awesome 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after enduring 2 consecutive double-digit road losses. With Stoudemire out and their backs against the wall, I expect the Knicks to play desperate basketball tonight. Desperate teams are dangerous, and the Knicks have the look of a dangerous dog here.
|
05-02-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185.5 |
|
98-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 52 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout (TNT) on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 185.5 Bottom Line: I'm expecting a very strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies tonight after such a poor showing in the 4th quarter Sunday. Memphis is 9-1 UNDER when checking into a game following an upset loss this season. Nothing gets the blood boiling like blowing a big lead. Sunday's loss assures us the Grizzlies will enter this contest with even more focus and desperation. Rather than ask the Grizz to cover the spread, we'll take the under as their defensive intensity keeps this one low scoring.
|
05-02-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic +3.5 |
Top |
97-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBA TV) on Magic +3.5 Bottom Line: The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pacers are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Magic.
|
05-02-12 |
Utah Jazz +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
83-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
4* Major (TNT) on Jazz +11.5 Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 33-10 ATS record since 1996. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.
|
05-01-12 |
Denver Nuggets +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Nuggets +6 Bottom Line: I'll gladly take the points with the Nuggets in this bounce back spot as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The always overvalued Lakers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
|
05-01-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 200 |
Top |
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nuggets/Lakers OVER 200 Bottom Line: The Lakers won't be able to hold the NBA highest scoring team in check again in Game 2. The Nuggets have come out and said that they'll force a fast-paced game, and that bodes very well for us here. Denver averages 104.6 ppg on the road and LA averages 98.9 ppg at home. These averages are significant because Denver is 24-5 OVER when both it and its opponent score 98 or more points in a game this season and LA is 39-1 OVER when both it and its foe score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. We've seen an average of 211.2 total points scored in these games. Pound the over.
|
05-01-12 |
Boston Celtics +5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
87-80 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics +5 Bottom Line: Odds makers have overcompensated for Rondo's suspension with this line, and we'll take full advantage. Bradley and Pierce really struggled in Game 1, and I expect much better performances from both players tonight. Plus, Boston is the top defensive team in the league, holding its foes to just 41.9% from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. The Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game.
|
04-30-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -8.5 |
Top |
78-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers -8.5 Bottom Line: The books are begging for action on Orlando here after the Magic stole Game 1, but we won't give in. The Pacers are the superior team, especially with Dwight Howard out, and I expect them to even the series with an impressive double-digit win. The Pacers are on an 80-50 ATS run when out to avenge a loss in which they were held below the 85-point mark. They are also on a 23-11 ATS streak in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Lay the points.
|
04-30-12 |
New York Knicks +10 v. Miami Heat |
|
94-104 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Knicks +10 Bottom Line: I expect an inspired effort from the Knicks tonight after getting completely embarrassed in Game 1. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points in their last game. Take the points.
|
04-29-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 |
|
99-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Grizzlies -5.5 Bottom Line: Home court cannot be overlooked in this series as the home team has won the last 4 by at least 7 points. Memphis has won its last 11 games at home by an average of 7.5 points. It also went 5-1 at home in the 2011 playoffs with a nearly double-digit average margin of victory.
|
04-29-12 |
Denver Nuggets +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
88-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* (ABC) on Nuggets +5 Bottom Line: The Nuggets are showing some nice value catching this many points. After all, they are 13-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Lakers, including 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
|
04-28-12 |
Dallas Mavericks +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
98-99 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Mavs +7.5 Bottom Line: The Mavs went 17-4 ATS in the playoffs last season, and they remain a strong playoff wager at these odds. OKC is explosive offensively, but the Mavs are an impressive 10-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the dog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this matchup.
|
04-28-12 |
Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
81-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Magic +9.5 Bottom Line: Odds makers are factoring Dwight Howard's absence too heavily into this line and we'll look to take advantage. The Magic remain a dangerous team without the big fella because they can flat out drain it from deep. The Magic are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus Indiana. The Pacers are on a 1-9-1 ATS slide when laying points in the postseason.
|
04-28-12 |
New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -8.5 |
|
67-100 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Heat -8.5 Bottom Line: The Heat are on a mission after losing in last year's Finals, and I expect them to waste no time sending a message to the Knicks. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.
|
04-26-12 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5 |
Top |
89-106 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks -4.5 Bottom Line: The Hawks have an opportunity to lock up home-court in the first round, and I expect them to take care of business versus a Dallas squad that will sit Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. The Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.
|
04-25-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks UNDER 191.5 |
Top |
93-99 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Clippers/Knicks UNDER 191.5 Bottom Line: The Clippers combined with the Hawks to put 211 points on the board last night. The Knicks combined with the Hawks to put 225 points on the board in their last game. Also, we've seen 224, 239 and 220 total points scored in the last 3 meetings in this series. Given the line, the books are clearly begging for the public to take the over. We won't bite. I fully expect this game to have playoff intensity on the defensive end. The Clippers are 14-5 under when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. We've seen just 184.4 total points scored in these games. Plus, NY is 9-0 under after a win by 6 points or less this season. We've seen just 175.9 total points scored in these games. Pound the under.
|
04-24-12 |
Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz UNDER 203 |
Top |
88-100 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 5 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Suns/Jazz UNDER 203 Bottom Line: Both teams are fresh and with all that's at stake I expect the defensive intensity to be high. The result should be an easy under. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more, are 83-42 since 1996. This system is 10-1 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 72-34 since 1996. This system is 28-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Lastly, the Suns are 7-0 Under this season in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pound the Under.
|
04-23-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. New Jersey Nets +9.5 |
|
105-87 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Nets +9.5 Bottom Line: With the knowledge that the 76ers can clinch a playoff berth with a win, odds makers have overvalued them here in an attempt to trap the public. The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Nets are coming off an 11-point loss at Milwaukee but are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. This will be the Nets final home game in the Garden State after 35 years, and I expect the players to respect the New Jersey fans by leaving it all on the floor. Take the points.
|
04-22-12 |
Houston Rockets +6 v. Miami Heat |
|
88-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Rockets +6 Bottom Line: The Heat's chances of landing the top seed in the East took a big hit with yesterday's loss to the Wizards, and Dwayne Wayne's injury was a reminder of how important it is to go into the playoffs healthy. The Heat really have no incentive to go after a win here. The Rockets, meanwhile, are in do-or-die mode as they trail Utah by a game for the last playoff spot in the West. Playing against home favorites (MIAMI) playing the second game of a back-to-back in April has produced a 180-116 ATS result since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have only won by an average of 3.6. Also, road underdogs (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days - against an opponent that is extremely tired - playing 9 or more games in 14 days - are 54-20 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 3.4. This situation is 16-6 ATS this season. Take the points.
|
04-21-12 |
Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets -12.5 |
Top |
96-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rockets -12.5 Bottom Line: This is a must-win game for Houston, which is 1-game back for the final playoff spot in the West, and it catches the injury-depleted Warriors at a good time. They spent a lot of injury in last night's loss to the Mavs and have now dropped 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Plus, Houston is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus Golden State, winning those contests by an average of 16.7 points. Lay the points.
|
04-20-12 |
Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks -12 |
Top |
94-104 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -12 Bottom Line: With an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, look for the Mavs to roll in their regular-season home finale. Dallas has won 9 of its last 10 at home against Golden State with those 9 wins coming by a whopping 16.8 points per game. The injury bug has really plagued the Warriors down the stretch, and I don't believe they have enough fire power to keep the motivated Mavs from blowing them out.
|
04-19-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2 |
|
90-93 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Suns -2 Bottom Line: The Suns have won 9 straight at home versus the Clippers with each of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite. Phoenix has won 2 of 3 versus the Clippers this season and was an underdog in each of those games. The fact that LAC is suddenly a dog while its playing its best ball of the season screams trap. We'll take the Suns.
|
04-19-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -5 |
Top |
72-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5 Bottom Line: After winning the season's first meeting in Miami, the Heat have dropped a pair of close contests in Chicago. This is a game the Heat want badly. A win here keeps them alive for the #1 seed in the East, and more importantly, gives them confidence against a Chicago club they'll likely see in the playoffs. The Heat have won 8 of their last 9 at home versus Chicago with those 8 wins coming by an average of 7.6 points. Also, playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 61-31 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.2 points and have won by an average of 9.7. Lay the points.
|
04-18-12 |
Utah Jazz v. Portland Trailblazers +4 |
Top |
112-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA BAILOUT on Trail Blazers +4 Bottom Line: The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 15-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Utah has won the season's first 2 meetings by 4 and 5 points, but Portland is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games when out to avenge 2 consecutive straight up losses to an opponent. The Blazers have won by an average of 7.0 points in this situation. We'll take the points as Portland shows up for the fans in its last home game of the season.
|
04-17-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers -3 |
Top |
102-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -3 Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs (INDIANA) coming off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 91-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have lost by an average of 8.9 points. The Pacers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on 0 days' rest. This is Indiana's 4th game in 5 days. The 76ers played yesterday as well but had 2 days off prior to that game. Philly will be the fresher team tonight, and I expect it to rise to the occasion as it tries to boost its playoff position.
|
04-16-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
|
77-92 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Thunder -2.5 Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to lay this small number on the Thunder as they are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. OKC will be very hungry tonight following last week's 2-point home loss to the Clippers. The Thunder are 13-2 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the Thunder.
|
04-16-12 |
Miami Heat v. New Jersey Nets +8 |
Top |
101-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +8 Bottom Line: This is Miami's second game in as many days and 4th in 5 days, and I don't think it will have the legs to cover this number tonight. The Nets haven't forgotten about the 30-point beating they were handed in South Beach last month, and I fully expect them to leave it all on the floor in hopes of avenging that defeat. Miami's starters logged over 164 minutes Sunday, which is significant because it is on a 2-6 ATS slide when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Nets.
|
04-15-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +9.5 |
Top |
100-94 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pistons +9.5 Bottom Line: The Pistons have either won or lost to the Bulls by fewer than today's posted number in 27 of the last 32 meetings in Detroit. The home teams have covered the number in 6 of the last 7 matchups. Also, the Pistons are a very profitable 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Take Detroit.
|
04-14-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 |
Top |
115-110 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +11.5 Bottom Line: Even with Love out, the T-Wolves aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. They are 4-9 in their last 13 home games in the series but none of those 13 losses have come by more than 11 points. I fully expect this 13-0 trend to continue. We'll take the points.
|
04-13-12 |
Denver Nuggets +4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
97-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets +4.5 Bottom Line: The Lakers have been overvalued at home and that remains the case here. They are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Nuggets, who haven't lost to the Lakers by more than 4 points in the last 4 meetings, are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games in this series.
|
04-13-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks -5 v. Detroit Pistons |
Top |
113-97 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -5 Bottom Line: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) that average 99.0 points per game or more on the season, provided they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 46-19 ATS (70.8%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3. This system is a killer 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Basically, this system suggests that Milwaukee will tighten the screws defensively following consecutive poor efforts and is explosive enough offensively to cover the number.
|
04-12-12 |
Miami Heat +2 v. Chicago Bulls |
Top |
86-96 |
Loss |
-116 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Heat +2 Bottom Line: Off a loss to Boston, in which they allowed the Celtics to shoot 60.6%, and having tasted defeat the last time they faced the Bulls, I expect an inspired effort from LeBron James and company this evening. The Heat lost in Chicago by 4 points on Mar. 14 but had won 5 straight over the Bulls by an average of 7.2 points prior to that. This game is basically a must-win for the Heat if they want any realistic chance to claim the Eastern Conference's top seed. More importantly, the Heat need this game to prove to themselves what they have thought all along, that they're the team to beat in the East. The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. We'll pound the Heat.
|
04-11-12 |
Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
93-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Year on Grizzlies -5.5 Bottom Line: I love the Grizzlies at home tonight as they look to pay Phoenix back for a pair of losses in the desert earlier this season. The last time Phoenix visited Memphis, it was handed a 10-point defeat, and I expect this one to be even worse. The Suns have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in this series with those 3 losses coming by an average of 11.3 points. Phoenix is 18-8 since mid-Feb. but has struggled against the elite, enduring losses to Oklahoma City, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. Memphis, meanwhile, has won 8 of its last 10 with key wins against the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. The Memphis defense has been ridiculous, holding its last 10 foes to just 90.8 points on average. The Phoenix defense hasn't been nearly as good, giving up 98.4 points to its last 10 opponents. The Suns have given up an average of 101.0 points to their last 5 opponents while the Grizzlies have allowed just 89.0 to their last 5. Memphis' defense will spark a blowout tonight.
|
04-10-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7.5 |
Top |
115-107 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5 Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a double-digit win over a division rival and are up against a foe that checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that enter off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and are up against a foe that enters off a home win has produced a perfect 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.
Playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, if that opponent checks in off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, has produced an unbeaten 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.
Lastly, playing against road teams in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) has produced a perfect 3-0 ATS mark this season. We'll take the Heat behind this 20-0 ATS angle.
|
04-09-12 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers -3 |
Top |
94-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3 Bottom Line: The Blazers have the advantage playing this one at home with a day of rest on their side. Houston just played Sunday and has lost 5 of its last 7 ATS when playing without a day of rest. The have also been a dead fade in this point-spread range as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a dog of 4.5 or fewer points. Houston is 4-13 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season and 2-11 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Portland.
|
04-09-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz |
|
84-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Jazz pk Bottom Line: There's a very good chance Duncan, Ginobli and Parker won't play (or will play few minutes) tonight. This gives the edge to Utah, which is an impressive 20-8 at home this season. The Jazz are on a 4-0 ATS run at home games against teams carrying winning road records. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest.
|
04-08-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 185 |
Top |
99-100 |
Loss |
-114 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 185 Bottom Line: The Knicks are 9-0 Under this season when checking in off a road win. We have only seen an average of 179.5 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 road games, 8-3 in the Knicks' last 11 overall and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two foes in New York. New York's defense has improved drastically since the last time it faced Chicago. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle to find its way under the number here.
|
04-07-12 |
Sacramento Kings +8 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
|
94-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Kings +8 Bottom Line: The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games when matched up against a team with a winning mark at home. The Kings have lost the season's first 2 meetings but are 37-24 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss over the last 2 seasons. They have only lost by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take the points.
|
04-07-12 |
Boston Celtics +2 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
86-72 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2 Bottom Line: Last night's satisfying win over the Thunder has left the Pacers ripe for a beating. The Celtics, who have lost 2 in a row since winning 5 straight, will gladly deliver that beating. This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost the season's most recent meeting by 7 points in Boston, but I don't believe it will have the legs to get the job done. Playing against home favorites (INDIANA) out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided that "play against" side checks in having played 9 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 35-13 (73%) ATS mark since 1996. Also, the Pacers are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing with no rest. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or fewer. Boston wins this game outright.
|
04-06-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
97-82 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Miami, which is coming off a big revenge win over the Thunder. Memphis lost its last game at Dallas but that was its third in as many days. Having had a day of rest, the Grizzlies will be much fresher here. They won at OKC Monday and have been at their best this time of year under coach Hollins. In fact, the Grizz are 18-4 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Hollins when matched up against a team that has won more than 70% of its games. It has only lost to these foes by an average of 2.1 points. I like Memphis to give the Heat all they want and more tonight.
|
04-05-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls -7 |
Top |
86-93 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls -7 Bottom Line: The Bulls will be out for blood at home tonight following back-to-back SU and ATS losses. Chicago is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It has won by an average of 13.4 points in this situation. Plus, the Celtics are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing when playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls.
|
04-04-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -2.5 |
|
93-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *MONSTER MATCHUP* on Heat -2.5 Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Heat, who were embarrassed in Oklahoma City March 25. Expect a different outcome in Miami, where the Heat are 22-2 on the season. They have won their last 16 home games, and those wins have come by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the points.
|
04-04-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6 |
Top |
109-96 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6 Bottom Line: The Wizards have played the Pacers to 2 and 4-point games this season, and I like them to take Indy right down to the wire again. The Pacers are only 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on 0 days' rest and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Off last night's big come-from-behind win over New York, and with the Thunder and Celtics up next, expect Indiana to get caught looking ahead here.
|
04-03-12 |
Golden State Warriors +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
Top |
94-98 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
5* NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Warriors +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for the Grizzlies following last night's big win over the Thunder. The Grizzlies are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take the points.
|
04-02-12 |
Utah Jazz +2 v. Portland Trailblazers |
Top |
102-97 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jazz +2 Bottom Line: The Blazers defeated Minnesota by 13 Sunday but are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.
|
04-01-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic -5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic -5 Bottom Line: The last time Orlando lost consecutive games it bounced back strong with a double digit win and cover over Phoenix. I expect a similar turn of events this evening. The Nuggets have lost 3 of 5 on their current road trip with their losses coming by an average of 15.0 points. They have also dropped 13 of their last 14 in Orlando with those losses coming by an average of 11.2 points. The fact Denver enters off a win is also significant because it hasn't won consecutive contests since March 4-5. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Nuggets are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Pound the Magic.
|
03-31-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks |
Top |
99-95 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +2.5 Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to take the Grizzlies in this back-to-back spot considering they are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 0 days rest. Also, the Bucks are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Plus, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Memphis won both of last season's meeting, and I expect it to continue its recent dominance of Milwaukee here.
|
03-30-12 |
New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3.5 |
Top |
90-100 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 30 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Hawks -3.5 Bottom Line: New York's 108-86 win over Orlando Wednesday and it's 99-82 home win over Atlanta last month sets up a very strong situation tonight. Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, has produced a 37-13 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.5 points. The Knicks are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games. I like the Hawks big in this revenge spot.
|
03-29-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -105 |
Top |
102-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 55 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* (TNT) on Lakers pk Bottom Line: The Lakers are 20-4 at home this season where they carry an 8.4-point average margin of victory. They are also on an 11-1 run at home versus the Sonic/Thunder (7 of those wins against the Thunder) with those 11 victories coming by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder have been far from invincible on the road of late with 7-point losses at Atlanta and Utah this month. The Lakers crushed the Heat by 10 points at home earlier this month and they'll be looking to make a statement against the Thunder as well. Pound the Lakers.
|
03-28-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. New Jersey Nets +5.5 |
Top |
84-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +5.5 Bottom Line: Expect the Nets to cover this number at home tonight as they leave it all on the floor to avoid being swept by Indiana. The Nets have lost the season's first 3 matchups but the last 2 losses have come by just 7 and 5 points. Fat and happy off a big win over Miami, I don't expect the Pacers to give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. The Pacers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, Indiana is only 2-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. Bet the Nets.
|
03-27-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers +5 |
|
109-95 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Bailout on Trailblazers +5 Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Miami and have the Lakers and Bulls up next. With those 2 big games ahead, the Thunder won't give Portland the respect it deserves here. The Blazers have either won or lost by fewer than 5 points in 9 of their last 10 home games in this series. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. Bet the Blazers.
|
03-27-12 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -2 |
Top |
101-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -2 Bottom Line: The Bucks have lost consecutive games by 21 and 9 points and have a pair of 5-point losses to Atlanta this season and yet they are favored? Odds makers clearly want the public on the Hawks, who have won 4 in row, but we won't fall for the trap. I believe Milwaukee will play with a greater sense of urgency tonight as it is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Plus, I expect Atlanta to be more focused on tomorrow's showdown with the Bulls. Playing against underdogs (ATLANTA) off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced an 83-48-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. The SU record of this system is 105-30 and the teams fitting into it have lost by an average of 8.9 points. Pound Milwaukee.
|
03-26-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +7 |
Top |
102-95 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Bobcats +7 Bottom Line: This aging Boston squad has really struggled when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, especially on the road. In fact, the C's are only 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 2nd game in as many days away from home. They haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by an average of 12.6 points. It is also worth mentioning that the Celtics are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on no rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Additionally, Bean Town is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Charlotte.
|
03-25-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
102-96 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7 Bottom Line: The Grizzlies have lost 3 in a row, but that's not about to keep me off them. They are a sizzling 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have only lost in this situation by an average of 0.1 points. The Lakers have won the season's first 2 meetings but the Grizzlies are 49-31 ATS in their last 80 games when playing with double revenge. They have only lost these games by an average of 1.3 points. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. We'll fade LA.
|
03-25-12 |
Miami Heat +2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
87-103 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
4* Major *MONSTER MATCHUP* on Heat +2 Bottom Line: The Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Thunder are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, the Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Wade and James have played in more big games than Westbrook and Durant, and I expect their big game experience to be the difference here.
|
03-24-12 |
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Houston Rockets |
Top |
101-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs +3.5 Bottom Line: The Mavs have won 4 straight over Houston with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. The last time the Mavs lost in Houston was Dec. 31, 2009 and they only lost that game by 3 points. The Mavs are an incredible 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll side with the reigning NBA champions in the small dog role here.
|
03-23-12 |
New Jersey Nets +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
84-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
4* Major on Nets +7.5 Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Nets, who have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings in the series. The Nets were crushed by 36 in the season's first meeting but played the Hawks to 7 and 5-point games in the next 2. Having lost 4 in a row and coming off an embarrassing loss to Washington, New Jersey should be very hungry here. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
|
03-23-12 |
New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors +5.5 |
Top |
79-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Year on Raptors +5.5 Bottom Line: The books want the money coming in on NY, who enters riding a 5-game win streak and defeated the Raptors by 19 on March 20, but we won't oblige them. That embarrassing loss, and blowing a 12-point lead in their last game against the Bulls, will have them extremely motivated here. Toronto has lost 3 in a row but is 14-4 ATS this season after losing 3 of their last 4 games. The Raptors have actually won by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. Also, the Knicks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. The Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pound Toronto.
|
03-22-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6.5 |
Top |
85-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6.5 Bottom Line: The Pacers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Pacers have lost their last 4 on the road and could get stung again here versus a Washington squad with home wins over the Thunder and Lakers. Take the points.
|
03-21-12 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. San Antonio Spurs -9.5 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
5* NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -9.5 Bottom Line: Having had 3 full days of rest and hungry to bounce back from a loss to Dallas and to avenge a pair of loss to Minnesota, look for the Spurs to roll tonight. The Spurs haven't lost consecutive games since January. They are 5-0 following their last 5 defeats, winning those games by an average of 16.6 points. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, the Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Pound the Spurs.
|
03-20-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers -3.5 |
Top |
89-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pacers -3.5 Bottom Line: I'll grab the Pacers laying a small number in this bounce back spot considering the dominance the home team has displayed in this series. The home team has won each of the last 4 by at least 7 points with Indiana winning its 2 home games during this span by 27 and 13.
|
03-19-12 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -4 |
Top |
112-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -4 Bottom Line: The Nuggets will be out for some serious revenge here after they were defeated by 10 and 18 points respectively by Dallas last month. Keep in mind that Denver's best player (in my opinion), Gallinari, didn't play in either of those games. With Gallinari back and playing well, Denver should be able to taste some sweet revenge here. Coach Karl is 105-81 ATS when out for revenge for a same season as the coach of Denver. He's also 41-17 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season with the Nuggets. Look for Denver to hand Dallas its 8th straight road loss tonight.
|
03-18-12 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 |
Top |
103-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Cavaliers +2.5 Bottom Line: Playing against all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games of allowing opponents to shoot 47% or better - has produced a 32-9 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 4.0 points. In addition, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Cavs.
|
03-17-12 |
New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 |
|
102-88 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Pacers -4.5 Bottom Line: Expect the Pacers, who lost by 5 in New York last night, to return the favor here. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. They are also 13-5 at home where they have won by an average of 7.7 points.
|
03-16-12 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +8 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
92-97 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +8 Bottom Line: The T-Wolves will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to snap a 17-game losing streak in the series. They have played the Lakers to 5 and 3-point games in 2 of the season's 3 meetings. Plus, the Lakers could be dealing with some chemistry issues after moving Derek Fisher, Luke Walton and Jason Kapono. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
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03-15-12 |
Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -7 |
Top |
91-87 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Clippers -7 Bottom Line: The Suns have been playing well but have only played one road games since Feb. 19. They have lost each of their last four road contests by an average of 11.5 points. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet the Clippers.
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03-14-12 |
Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -2.5 |
|
102-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
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4* Major Monster Matchup (ESPN) on Bulls -2.5 Bottom Line: The Bulls will be lacking no motivation as they look to end a 5-game skid versus Miami. Plus, they get this game at home where they are 17-3, and they get a fatigued Miami squad that just played an overtime game last night. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less.
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03-14-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +5 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Hornets +5 Bottom Line: The Hornets catch the Lakers at the right time as LA used a ton of energy in last night's double-OT win. The Lakers have struggled on the road all season. They are even on a 0-5 ATS slide in road games when matched up against teams with losing marks at home. The Hornets have covered the number in 10 of their last 13 when catching points. Pound New Orleans.
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03-13-12 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -5 |
Top |
117-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -5 Bottom Line: The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Denver has won 4 straight at home against Atlanta with those wins coming by 9.5 points on average. Lay the number.
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03-12-12 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +4 v. Phoenix Suns |
Top |
127-124 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 3 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +4 Bottom Line: The Timberwolves are still a quality team without Rubio. They are more talented than Phoenix top-to-bottom and will prove it here tonight. The Suns defeated the Wolves by 9 points earlier this month, but Minnesota shot just 39.5% from the field in that game. The poor shooting can be attributed to tired legs as that was Minnesota 3rd game in as many days. It is fresher heading into this one and will shoot the ball a lot better. The Wolves are an impressive 17-7 ATS when catching points this season. It is winning by an average score of 99.2 to 98.6 in these games. Look for the Wolves to notch an outright win.
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03-11-12 |
Atlanta Hawks +1 v. Sacramento Kings |
Top |
106-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 50 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +1 Bottom Line: I like this experienced Atlanta squad to bounce back from consecutive defeats against the young Kings tonight. Sacramento is coming off a big double-digit win over the reigning NBA champs but is only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. Atlanta has won 7 in a row against the Kings with those wins coming by an average of 8.6 points. Also, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bet Atlanta in this bounce back spot against a team it has had a great deal of success against.
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03-10-12 |
Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
91-93 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +9.5 Bottom Line: We may not get the Pacers in a better spot all season. They have had 3 days to get fresh following consecutive defeats, and we can expect maximum effort after losing the season's first two meetings with Miami badly. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games when taking the floor with 3 days' rest or more. The Pacers desperately want to show that they can play with anyone in the East. I think they take a step toward proving that by taking the Heat down to the wire.
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03-09-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
120-108 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
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4* Major on Clippers +5 Bottom Line: The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. They lost to the Spurs by just 3 points in OT on Feb. 18, and I like them to keep this one within the number in this revenge spot.
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03-09-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers -113 v. Minnesota Timberwolves |
Top |
105-102 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Lakers -113 Bottom Line: After blowing a 12-point lead against Detroit Tuesday and a 21-point lead against Washington Wednesday, the Lakers will be out for blood against a team they have defeated 17 straight times. Playing on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, has produced a 12-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Also, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
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03-09-12 |
New Jersey Nets v. Charlotte Bobcats +3 |
|
83-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
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4* Major on Bobcats +3 Bottom Line: The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
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03-08-12 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns +3.5 |
Top |
94-96 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Suns +3.5 Bottom Line: I fully expect the Suns to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mavs tonight. Dallas has dropped its last 4 on the road while Phoenix has won 5 of its last 6 at home and that lone home defeat only came by 2 points. The Mavs are not the same team that won the title last season and yet they are continuing to get that type of respect from odds makers. The Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite period. The Suns have covered the number in 5 of their last 6 at home and 7 of their last 10 as an underdog of fewer than 5 points.
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03-07-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +8 |
|
106-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
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4* Major on Bucks +8 Bottom Line: Odds makers are begging for action on the Bulls with this line considering Chicago has won the last 2 in this series by 23 and 19. We won't bite. This is Milwaukee's last chance at the Bulls and they enter very confident following a big win over Philly. Expect the Bucks to keep this one closer than the odds makers think.
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03-07-12 |
Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Bobcats +7 |
|
99-93 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
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4* Major on Bobcats +7 Bottom Line: The Jazz, who are just 4-13 on the highway, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
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03-07-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Washington Wizards +8 |
|
101-106 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
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4* Major on Wizards +8 Bottom Line: The Lakers, who are just 6-13 on the road, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
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03-07-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 |
Top |
71-103 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -6.5 Bottom Line: Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 on the highway. It's also just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 away games when matched up against a team that has won more than 60% of its home games.
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03-06-12 |
Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Boston Celtics |
|
92-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
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4* Major on Rockets +4.5 Bottom Line: The Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Boston.
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03-06-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +6 |
Top |
85-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Pistons +6 Bottom Line: A Lakers squad that is just 6-12 on the road this season enters this matchup overvalued following a big win over Miami. L.A. hasn't won by more than 5 points on the road all season and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in the road chalk. The Pistons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Pound the Pistons.
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03-05-12 |
Utah Jazz v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 |
|
109-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Cavs +2.5 Bottom Line: With as poorly as Utah has played on the road (3-13), I won't hesitate to grab the Cavs in the home dog role. They are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.
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03-04-12 |
Denver Nuggets +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
99-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Nuggets +6.5 Bottom Line: Denver's dominance on the boards last game is a good sign considering it is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game in which it outrebounded an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. It hasn't just won in this situation, it's won by an average of 10.6 points. Also, Denver is 14-5 ATS in road games this season and 23-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
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03-03-12 |
Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -7.5 |
Top |
96-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs -7.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Utah following a big win over Miami last night. It's a bounce back spot for Dallas, who is out to snap a 4-game skid. The Mavs are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Mavericks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the home team is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.
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03-02-12 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10 |
Top |
112-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavaliers +10 Bottom Line: Even if an illness keeps Kyrie Irving out, this is a lot of points for the Bulls to be laying on the road. The Bulls handed Cleveland the most lopsided home loss in franchise history six weeks ago, which assures us the Cavs will leave it all on the floor here. The Cavaliers have been a real nice home dog, covering the spread in 7 of their last 9 in the role. We'll pound Cleveland.
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