10-16-16 |
Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 |
|
15-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Key: I think the Miami Dolphins have a legitimate chance to pull the upset today. It will be the first time all season that center Pouncey and tackle Albert have played together, so their offensive line is getting healthy. Meanwhile, the Steelers are without two of their best defenders in Ryan Shazier and Cam Heyward. After back-to-back blowout home wins, the Steelers are overvalued right now. The last time they were on the road they lost 34-3 to the Eagles. The Dolphins are playing for their season right now after a 1-4 start and will put up a big fight, likely pulling off the upset. Take Miami.
|
10-16-16 |
49ers +7.5 v. Bills |
|
16-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* 49ers/Bills Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +7.5
The Key: The Buffalo Bills are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall. Now they are laying more than a touchdown at home to the 49ers. If not for turnovers, the 49ers would have beaten the Cardinals last Thursday. And now they've had some extra time to prepare for this game and get Colin Kaepernick ready to play quarterback. They have the element of surprise with him, which I think will be tough for the Bills to deal with. Take San Francisco.
|
10-13-16 |
Broncos v. Chargers +3 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* DEN/SD Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +3
The Key: The San Diego Chargers are the most underrated team in the NFL right now. They have held a lead for more minutes than any other team in the league this season. However, they are 1-4 with their four losses all coming by 4 points or less. But now the Chargers' season is on the line here against the Broncos. They can't afford to fall behind any further in the AFC West standings if they are going to make a run. So with their backs against the wall here at home, I'll back them as 3-point home dogs. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a division loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West foes. Take San Diego.
|
10-10-16 |
Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 46 |
Top |
17-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* TB/CAR Monday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 46
The Key: Turnovers are the biggest reason both of these teams are off to 1-3 starts. The Bucs have committed 11 through four games while the Panthers have committed 10. That has led to easy scores for opponents. I look for both teams to go with a more conservative approach tonight to try and avoid those turnovers in essentially what is a must-win game for both teams. And the end result is going to be a defensive battle that is much lower-scoring than this 46-point total would suggest. I also like the fact that Derek Anderson is starting in place of Cam Newton as the Panthers' offense will be less explosive. He started two games against Tampa Bay in 2014 in place of an inured Newton. The Panthers won 20-14 and 19-17 in both those games, which saw 34 and 36 combined points, respectively. Tampa Bay is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 road games after gaining 4 or fewer yards per play in its previous game. The UNDER is 7-3 in Bucs last 10 division games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Bucs last 20 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Carolina. Take the UNDER.
|
10-09-16 |
Bills v. Rams +2.5 |
|
30-19 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 60 m |
Show
|
6* Bills/Rams Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +2.5
The Key: No analysis Sunday
|
10-09-16 |
Titans +3 v. Dolphins |
|
30-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
6* Titans/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +3
The Key: No analysis Sunday
|
10-09-16 |
Eagles v. Lions +3.5 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +3.5
The Key: No analysis Sunday
|
10-06-16 |
Cardinals -3.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
33-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -3.5
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have committed 5 turnovers each in their last 2 games to give away games against the Bills and Rams. Look for them to shore that up and get a big win here on Thursday night against the lowly San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals aren't broken as they rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential at plus-68.5 yards per game. The 49ers are 1-3 as well, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in yardage differential at negative-97.2 yards per game. They just lost NaVorro Bowman to a season-ending injury, and their defense was already terrible in allowing 390 yards per game on the season. Drew Stanton, even though he's a backup, should light up this 49ers defense. And look for Bruce Arians to get stud RB David Johnson going, especially with run-stopper Bowman out. The 49ers give up 140 rushing yards per game this season. San Francisco is 1-11 ATS in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals swept the season series last year in winning by a combined 66-20 score over the 49ers. Take Arizona.
|
10-03-16 |
Giants +4 v. Vikings |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* Giants/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4
The Key: The Minnesota Vikings aren't as good as their 3-0 record would suggest. They are getting outgained by 29.7 yards per game on the season, and their offense is still terrible. Their defense is the reason they are 3-0 as they have gotten several non-offensive touchdowns already. The Giants probably should be the team that is 3-0 instead of 2-1. They are outgaining teams by 57 yards per game. Each of the Giants' first three games have been decided by 3 points or less. This one is likely to go down to the wire as well, so the 4 points could come into play. The Vikings aren't going to keep forcing turnovers at this rate as they are +8 in that department. The Giants aren't going to keep losing the turnover battle as they are -6 in turnovers this season. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday games. Take New York.
|
10-02-16 |
Chiefs v. Steelers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
14-43 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
7* Chiefs/Steelers NFL Total of the Month on UNDER 47.5
The Key: The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams. They have combined for 36, 32, 29 and 22 points in those four meetings. That's an average of 29.8 points per game, which is basically 18 points less than this total of 47.5. Both the Steelers and Chiefs have very good defenses, while the Chiefs have a terrible offense. This game should easily stay under the total tonight in a battle between two AFC heavyweights. Take the UNDER.
|
10-02-16 |
Cowboys v. 49ers +1 |
|
24-17 |
Loss |
-101 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
6* Cowboys/49ers NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +1
The Key: There's a reason this line was Cowboys -3 and has moved down to Cowboys -1. The big money is on the 49ers, and I agree that it should be. They were blown out on the road the last two weeks by two of the best teams in the NFL in the Panthers and Seahawks. But now they come back home, where they previously beat the Rams 28-0 in Week 1. The Cowboys are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers because they blew out a hapless Bears team on Sunday Night Football last week. Dez Bryant is banged up, and I look for Dak Prescott to struggle on the road here against the best defense he has faced since losing to the Giants in Week 1. Take San Francisco.
|
10-02-16 |
Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 |
|
27-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on New York Jets +1.5
The Key: The New York Jets committed 8 turnovers last week, which was the only reason they lost 24-3 to the Chiefs. They were still in the game for the majority of it despite the turnovers. I think they come back home this week and pull off the upset against the Seattle Seahawks, who have a banged-up Russell Wilson at quarterback. Wilson did not play well in his only road game at Los Angeles, losing 9-3 to the Rams. Wilson hurt his knee against the 49ers last week and was pulled from the game. Without his mobility, he's going to struggle against a Jets defensive line that is one of the best in the business. Take New York.
|
09-29-16 |
Dolphins +8 v. Bengals |
Top |
7-22 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Dolphins/Bengals AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +8
The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting way too much respect from the books as 8-point favorites here over the Miami Dolphins. I think this game will go right down to the wire, so this is a really nice price for the Dolphins. We've already seen the Dolphins go on the road and nearly beat both the Seahawks (lost by 2) and Patriots (lost by 7). They can certainly stay within a touchdown of these Bengals, who have not fared well in losses to the Steelers and Broncos the past two weeks. The Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cincinnati. Take Miami.
|
09-26-16 |
Falcons v. Saints UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
45-32 |
Loss |
-100 |
32 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* ATL/NO Monday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 53.5
The Key: The betting public is all over the OVER in this game because they see two teams with perceived great offenses and poor defenses. There's some serious line value with the UNDER as a result. The Falcons and Saints hate each other as they're division foes, and these division games are almost always more low-scoring than expected. That has certainly been the case in this rivalry. The Falcons and Saints have combined for 52 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the UNDER going 5-1-1 in that stretch. They have only averaged 44.2 combined points in those 7 games, which is 9.3 points less than this 53.5-point total. The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 divisin games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 division road games. The UNDER is 22-7-1 in Falcons last 30 games overall. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Saints last 8 division games. Take the UNDER.
|
09-25-16 |
Chargers v. Colts |
|
22-26 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* Chargers/Colts AFC *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis PK
The Key: The Colts simply cannot afford to fall to 0-3 on the season if they want to get back to the playoffs. Look for them to come out hungry at home today against the Chargers. They easily could be 2-0. They had a late lead against the Lions, but lost 35-39. They also had the Broncos on the ropes before giving up a defensive touchdown late to lose 20-34. I'm not ready to buy the Chargers being one of the better teams in the AFC just because they beat the Jaguars and took the Chiefs to overtime, two teams who have struggled in the early going. The Chargers are without top receiver Keenan Allen and top RB pass-catcher Danny Woodhead, and those injuries will come back to bite them sooner rather than later. TE Antonio Gates is also questionable for this one. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. The Colts are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up loss. The Colts are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 home games. Take Indianapolis.
|
09-25-16 |
Rams v. Bucs -3.5 |
|
37-32 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
6* Rams/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay -3.5
The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are in a prime letdown spot here. They are coming off a huge win over the Seahawks, but only because their defense came through in a big way. Teams are just 34-58 ATS the week after playing the Seahawks since Pete Carroll took over. The Rams have still scored just 9 points on the season, and their offense won't be much better this week. The Bucs will be hungry to play in their first home game, especially after a 7-40 loss to the Cardinals last week. They turned the ball over five times to let the game get away from them. Look for them to preach ball security in this one. The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games off a division win, 0-6 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, and 14-30 ATS as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 range. Take Tampa Bay.
|
09-25-16 |
Raiders v. Titans +1.5 |
Top |
17-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* AFC Game of the Month on Tennessee Titans +1.5
The Key: The Tennessee Titans could be 2-0 right now. They lost to the Vikings in Week 1 only after blowing a 10-0 lead and giving up two defensive touchdowns in the second half. They came back with a solid win at Detroit last week. The NFL is about defense, and the Titans clearly have the better one here. Their defense has technically only allowed 23 points all season. Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up 35 points and 517 total yards per game. This is an early kick out East for the Raiders, which is a tough spot for a West Coast team. Take Tennessee.
|
09-22-16 |
Texans +1 v. Patriots |
Top |
0-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Texans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +1
The Key: The injuries the Patriots are dealing with right now puts them at an extreme disadvantage. I don't trust rookie Jacoby Brissett to be able to do much offensively as he has only 2.5 days to prepare for this game. Plus, he'll be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week in the Texans. I'll side with that defense and Brock Osweiler and company to come away with a win here. Bill O'Brien will have his team focused because he knows what the Patriots are capable of with their backs against the wall, as he previously coached there. Take Houston.
|
09-19-16 |
Eagles v. Bears -3 |
Top |
29-14 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* Eagles/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3
The Key: The Chicago Bears need a win to avoid starting 0-2. They held their own against the Texans last week, but couldn't hold on to a 14-10 halftime lead as they lost 23-14. Look for them to be hungry here at home on a big stage on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are getting too much respect now after beating the Cleveland Browns 29-10 in their opener. They looked good, but this will be a different challenge for rookie QB Carson Wentz in his first start in an NFL road game. I don't expect him to handle it very well. The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September. Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Week 2 games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Take Chicago.
|
09-18-16 |
Packers -2 v. Vikings |
|
14-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
43 h 17 m |
Show
|
6* Packers/Vikings NFC North *BAILOUT* on Green Bay -2
The Key: The Packers got their offense going in a 27-23 win at Jacksonville last week. They will once again be one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL now that Jordy Nelson is back. He wasted no time finding the end zone in his first game back from injury last week. The Vikings don't have the firepower to keep up with the Packers. Their offense only managed 301 yards against the Titans last week and 4 field goals, getting held out of the end zone. Their defense scored both of their touchdowns. Adrian Peterson went for just 31 yards on 19 carries. The Packers held the Jaguars to 48 rushing yards on 26 carries. They will stop AP and make Sam Bradford try and beat them, and I don't think he will be able to in his 1st start. CB Xavier Rhodes is a big loss for the Vikings this week because he is their top cover corner. Even Marcus Mariota threw for 271 yards and a couple TDs against the Vikings last week. Rodgers will have a big game here and lead the Packers to victory as they avenge their Week 17 loss to the Vikings last year. Take Green Bay.
|
09-18-16 |
Colts +7 v. Broncos |
|
20-34 |
Loss |
-120 |
39 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* Colts/Broncos AFC *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis +7
The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a bad 39-35 loss to the Lions last week, which has them undervalued this week. They were without 3 of their top cornerbacks, and Matthew Stafford took advantage by guiding the Lions to 39 points. But this is a better matchup for the Colts this week. The Broncos are limited in the passing game with Trevor Siemien. He didn't do much against the Panthers in their opener. The Broncos won that game with defense and their running game. That was an emotional win for Denver, and now it will be in a letdown spot here. They go from being 3-point underdogs to the Panthers to 7-point favorites against the Colts. I don't believe there is 10 points difference between the Colts and Panthers on a neutral field, so you can see why I believe there is some value here. Andrew Luck looked like his old self against Detroit, throwing for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception. The Colts are 8-1 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Broncos, including 3-1 in their 4 meetings with Luck at QB. I just think 7 points is too much here. Take Indianapolis.
|
09-18-16 |
Bengals v. Steelers -3 |
Top |
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* AFC North Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Key: This is one of the most heated rivalries in sports between the Steelers and Bengals. I'll gladly side with the home team only laying a field goal. The Steelers dominated the Redskins 38-16 on the road, while the Bengals squeaked by the Jets 23-22 and were very fortunate to win. The Steelers clearly have plenty of depth to make up for the loss of some key players, while the Bengals do not. The Bengals are without their best defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, and they are without their TD leader from a year ago in TE Tyler Eifert, who scored 13 touchdowns for them. The Steelers won their final two meetings of the season with the Bengals last year, both on the road and one in the playoffs. They have now won 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss coming 16-10 in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 356-296 and should have won, but Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions and was playing injured. The Steelers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Pittsburgh.
|
09-15-16 |
Jets +1 v. Bills |
Top |
37-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* Jets/Bills AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1
The Key: Injuries to the Bills have them way less than full strength right now. They had key rookies in DE Shaq Lawson and LB Reggie Ragland who are out and were expected to play significant roles this season. They are also without LB Ik Enempkpali, starting LT Cordy Glenn and their best DT in Marcell Dareus. Not to mention, Sammy Watkins is far from 100%. I just believe the Jets are primed to win this game today not only because of all the injuries, but because they want revenge from losing 5 straight to the Bills last year, including a loss in Week 17 that kept them out of the playoffs. Take New York.
|
09-12-16 |
Rams -3 v. 49ers |
Top |
0-28 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
7* Rams/49ers Monday Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3
The Key: This will finally be the year the Los Angeles Rams make a playoff push. They have been stockpiling talent for the last few years, and they now actually have some of the best young talent in the NFL. Look for it to come to fruition in 2016, starting with Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, who will battle with the Cleveland Browns for worst team in the NFL honors. The Rams' only potential weakness is at QB, but Case Keenum is a batter QB than Blaine Gabbert, and the 49ers have holes everywhere on both side of the ball due to poor management. Only having to lay a field goal with the vastly superior team tonight is a nice discount. Take Los Angeles.
|
09-11-16 |
Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks |
|
10-12 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Dog of the Week on Miami Dolphins +10.5
The Key: The Miami Dolphins are showing good value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks remain a public team in 2016 and are getting the majority of the action, pushing this line higher than it should be. The Dolphins will be better in 2016 under the guidance of new head coach Adam Gase. He worked wonders with Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, and he'll have the same effect on Ryan Tannehill and get the most out of him in 2016. The defense features one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and they'll get after Russell Wilson and the terrible Seattle O-line. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Miami.
|
09-11-16 |
Browns v. Eagles -3.5 |
|
10-29 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Key: The Cleveland Browns are the worst team in the NFL, so we'll take advantage Sunday and fade them as short road underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles. This line was actually -7 when the Eagles had Sam Bradford, and now it's -3.5 with Carson Wentz starting. There's simply not that much difference between those two quarterbacks to warrant that big of a move. The Browns went 1-7 on the road last season and lost by an average of 12.8 points per game. Take Philadelphia.
|
09-11-16 |
Bengals v. Jets +1 |
Top |
23-22 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Game of the Week on New York Jets +1
The Key: Home-field advantage has been huge between the Bengals and Jets. The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Jets have won 6 straight home meetings with the Bengals as well. They should not be underdogs Sunday. Take New York.
|
09-08-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +3 |
Top |
20-21 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* CAR/DEN NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver Broncos +3
The Key: The defending Super Bowl champ is 14-2 SU in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons. The Super Bowl loser from the previous year is only 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS over the past 16 seasons as well. I feel that the price is right to back the Broncos as home underdogs here Thursday night. Carolina is not 6 points better on a neutral field, which is what this line would indicate. The Broncos didn't lose a whole lot from last year, and it's not like Peyton Manning did much for this team. They still have the best defense in the NFL and a solid running game, along with 2 elite receivers on the outside. I think they have enough to win tonight and will be inspired, just almost all of the previous year's Super Bowl winners have been. Take Denver.
|
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +6 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
7* Broncos/Panthers Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6
The Key: The betting public and all of the money has been pouring in on the Carolina Panthers over the past two weeks. This line opened at -3.5 at most books and has been driven up to +6 in some places. There's no question that the Panthers are overvalued coming in as my numbers indicate that they should only be 3-point favorites on a neutral field over the Broncos. That means we are getting 3 points of value here with the Broncos. I'll gladly support Denver given it has the best defense in the NFL and one that will slow down this Carolina offense. Oddsmakers are expecting a pretty low-scoring game here, too, and so am I, which favors getting 6 points with the dog in what is likely to be a close game from start to finish. Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest. Take Denver.
|
01-24-16 |
Cardinals +3 v. Panthers |
Top |
15-49 |
Loss |
-100 |
29 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +3
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL, period. They should not be underdogs to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. For starters, the Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 14.0 points per game. They actually play better on the road because they use a silent count offensively. The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in total offense and 5th in total defense. They are 2nd in passing offense at 289 yards per game. Their passing attack will be the difference in this one because Carolina does not defend the pass well. The Panthers have a make-shift secondary now with all of the injuries they have suffered, and they have two of the worst safeties in the NFL. Carson Palmer and company will take advantage of a Carolina defense that has allowed 310 passing yards per game in its last 3 contests. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. Take Arizona.
|
01-24-16 |
Patriots v. Broncos +3 |
|
18-20 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Denver +3
The Key: The Broncos are home underdogs to the New England Patriots when they shouldn't be. We're getting some great value here with the Broncos catching a full field goal at home. After all, the home team has dominated this series. The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Broncos beat the Patriots 30-24 at home earlier this season in overtime. But that game never should have went to OT as the Broncos outgained the Patriots 433 to 301 and by 132 total yards. The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL and that defense will lead them to the Super Bowl. Don't underestimate Peyton Manning, either, as he had a better game against the Steelers than his numbers showed due to 7 dropped passes from his receivers. The Broncos have the better running game as well. I'll side with the better defense, the better running game, and home-field advantage in this one. Take Denver.
|
01-17-16 |
Seahawks +2.5 v. Panthers |
|
24-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
81 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle +2.5
The Key: Seattle did not look good against Minnesota, but that had everything to do with the below zero temperatures. The weather is expected to be great in Carolina this weekend, so look for Russell Wilson to get back on track. All he's done is throw 25 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in his last 8 games overall. Now he gets to go up against a Carolina secondary that is decimated by injuries right now. He'll be chomping at the bit at a chance at revenge on Carolina, which overcame a 9-point deficit in the final 4 minutes to beat the Seahawks 27-23 in Seattle in their first meeting this year. That was a rare win for Carolina in this series. The Seahawks are still 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Panthers. They had held Carolina to just 11.8 points per game in their previous 5 meetings. The Seahawks have been ridiculous defensively on the road of late, giving up just 7.2 points per game in their last 6 road games. They have only allowed one touchdown to opposing offenses in those 6 road games. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. teams who commit 1 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season. Take Seattle.
|
01-16-16 |
Packers +7 v. Cardinals |
Top |
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* Packers/Cardinals NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay +7
The Key: It's so tough to beat a team like the Packers twice in the same season. That's what the Cardinals are tasked with doing in the NFC Divisional Round. They just crushed the Packers 38-8 in Week 16, but I think that result has them laying too many points here in the rematch. The Packers figured something out against the Redskins that worked, which was the hurry-up offense. It led to a 35-7 run by the Packers to close out that game, and I think it's going to work against the Cardinals as well. The Packers are healthier along the offensive line now than they were when they played the Cardinals three weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game, but he won't be now with improved O-line play and the help of the hurry-up offense. The Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, and they're only outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on average in those six contests. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games. Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Green Bay.
|
01-16-16 |
Chiefs v. Patriots -5 |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
60 h 7 m |
Show
|
6* Chiefs/Patriots AFC *CA$H COW* on New England -5
The Key: The two weeks off have done the Patriots wonders. They did not finish the season the way they wanted to, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. I think that poor finish has them actually undervalued at home for once as only 5-point favorites over the Chiefs. The Chiefs are obviously overvalued right now because they have won 11 straight games coming in. But they've only beaten 3 playoff teams during this 11-game winning streak. One was Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, one was Denver in a game Peyton Manning got injured, and another was Houston and the worthless Brian Hoyer, who committed five turnovers on his own. The Chiefs have been winning the turnover battle, which has been the key to their success. But now they must face a team that doesn't turn it over in the Patriots, and they aren't going to have this game go their way as a result. The Patriots have only committed 14 turnovers in 16 games this year. Julian Edelman, Sebastian Volmer, Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are all expected to be ready to go this week thanks to the extra time off. Meanwhile, Kansas City could be without its top target in Jeremy Maclin, who suffered a nasty high ankle sprain in the win over Houston. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. The Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a loss. The Patriots are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take New England.
|
01-10-16 |
Packers +1 v. Redskins |
Top |
35-18 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Packers/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +1
The Key: The Washington Redskins won one of the worst divisions in football in the NFC East. They played 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs and only 2 teams that did, and they were blown out by 28 points by Carolina and by 17 points by New England in those two contests. The Packers played 7 playoff teams this season to compare, yet still managed to win 10 games. Yes, they have lost their last 2 games coming in, but that is why they are showing good value here as underdogs to the Redskins. They are the better team, and they will prove that on the field Sunday. The Redskins have actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games and rank 23rd in yardage differential (-26.8 yards/game) on the season. The Packers are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with the Redskins, outscoring them by 15.0 points per game. Take Green Bay.
|
01-10-16 |
Seahawks -4 v. Vikings |
|
10-9 |
Loss |
-108 |
34 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* Seahawks/Vikings NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -4
The Key: Recent meetings between the Seahawks and Vikings have been dominated by Seattle, and I see no reason that's going to change Sunday. The Seahawks have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Vikings, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game in the process. That includes the 38-7 win at Minnesota earlier this season in which the Seahawks outgained the Vikings by a whopping 308 total yards. The offense put up 433 while the defense limited the Vikings to just 125. The Seahawks have given up 13 or fewer points in four of their last five games and are allowing only 11.0 points per game over this stretch. Russell Wilson has thrown 24 touchdowns and only one interception in his last 7 games, putting up video game-like numbers. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS when they have won 4 of their last 5 games coming in over the last 2 years. Take Seattle.
|
01-09-16 |
Chiefs -3 v. Texans |
Top |
30-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* Chiefs/Texans Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City -3
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs have won a franchise-record 10 consecutive games and are ready to end a 22-year streak without a playoff victory. They have done so behind a defense that is giving up just 12.8 points per game during this winning streak. They have also had a plus-16 turnover differential during it. Considering they play the Texans, a team that has only beaten one playoff team all season, I like their chances of end this playoff drought. When the Chiefs have gone under the total in two straight games coming in, they have gone 8-0 ATS and are winning these games by 16.4 points per game. Take Kansas City.
|
01-03-16 |
Bucs +10.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
10-38 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Bucs +10.5
The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to end their season on a high note with an upset win over division rival Carolina. This team has been great under Jameis Winston in his first year, but the record unfortunately hasn't reflected that. The numbers say that the Bucs are one of the better teams in the NFL, and I trust the numbers here. The Panthers have gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall and are once again laying too many points to their opponent this week. Take Tampa Bay.
|
01-03-16 |
Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 41 |
|
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Total of the Week on Ravens/Bengals UNDER 41
The Key: This division rivalry between the Bengals and Ravens will be low scoring Sunday. The Ravens have not offense right now with all their injuries, but the defense is playing very well of late. The Bengals also are struggling on offense due to injuries at the quarterback position, but they have one of the better defenses in the NFL. The end result is going to be a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER.
|
12-28-15 |
Bengals v. Broncos -4 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* Bengals/Broncos MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4
The Key: The Denver Broncos rank 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense and 1st in passing defense. This is simply the most dominant defense I've seen in a long time. It will be the difference in why the Broncos win this game. AJ McCarron will be making just his second start, and after an uninspiring effort against a bad 49ers defense last week, he will be awful against the league's top defense this week in the Broncos. Brock Osweiler has played well this season and is the better quarterback here on an offense that has more potential than the Bengals. I think he'll make enough plays and not turn the ball over, which will be enough for the Broncos to win this game by 4-plus points. Bets on favorites off a road loss who are winning between 60% and 75% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Broncos are 8-0 ATS the game after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Take Denver.
|
12-27-15 |
Packers +5.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
8-38 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +5.5
The Key: The Green Bay Packers are playing up to their potential again. They have won three straight and Mike McCarthy just took over the play-calling two weeks ago. They put up 435 yards and 28 points against the Cowboys and 30 points against the Raiders in their last two contests with McCarthy making the decisions. He is a master with the screen game, and those screen plays are going to be huge against this aggressive Cardinals defense that is vulnerable. We saw it two weeks ago against the Vikings, who nearly took them to OT in Arizona. They utilized the screen game and their tight ends to perfection. Green Bay's defense is playing well enough to slow down the Cardinals. The Packers are giving up just 16.3 points per game over their last 6 contests. Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. This one should go right down to the wire, so this +5.5 spread is giving us plenty of value on the Packers. Take Green Bay.
|
12-27-15 |
Bears v. Bucs -3 |
|
26-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* NFL *BLOWOUT* Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been one of the better teams in the NFL in terms of yardage differential. They rank 7th in that category as they are outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game. The other top 9 teams in yardage differential are all in the playoffs as of today. Look for the Bucs to win in the box score and on the scoreboard against a Bears team that has lost three straight, including a 21-point loss to the Vikings last week. The Bucs last played on Thursday so they have had three extra days of rest heading into this game than the Bears. Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 30-plus points in its previous game. Take Tampa Bay.
|
12-27-15 |
49ers +9 v. Lions |
|
17-32 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Dog of the Week on San Francisco 49ers +9
The Key: The Detroit Lions shouldn't be favored this heavily against anyone. They are coming off a win on Monday Night Football. Not only does that have them overvalued, it also has them playing on a short week here and in a letdown spot against the 49ers. It will be hard for them to get up for the 49ers after playing on the bright lights of MNF. The 49ers have beaten the Vikings and Bears outright as underdogs within the NFC North already this year, and they're certainly capable of hanging with the Lions here. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons. The Lions are 6-20-3 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take San Francisco.
|
12-26-15 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 48 |
Top |
38-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* Redskins/Eagles NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48
The Key: I really like UNDERS in division games between two teams who have already played earlier in the season. I certainly like UNDERS in this situation that are approaching 50 points. These teams combined for just 43 points in a 23-20 win by the Redskins in their first meeting back on October 4th. They also combined for just 737 total yards in that game. The Redskins only won after Kirk Cousins hit Pierre Garcon on a 4-yard touchdown pass with 26 seconds left. So, this was a 20-16 game until the closing seconds. Bets on the UNDER in any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 42-13 over the last 5 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|
12-24-15 |
Chargers +5.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Chargers/Raiders TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +5
The Key: The Oakland Raiders have no business being this heavily favored against anyone. Especially not against a division rival like the Chargers, who have pretty much owned them in the past. The Chargers have outgained the Raiders in 5 straight meetings. The only reason the Raiders beat them in the first meeting this year is because they were coming off their bye, while the Chargers were in a hangover spot off their tough loss to the Packers the previous week. The Chargers are allowing just 13.7 points and 284 yards per game in their last 3 contests. They are 4th in the NFL in passing offense at 294 yards per game and should have plenty of success through the air against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th against the pass. The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take San Diego.
|
12-21-15 |
Lions v. Saints -2.5 |
Top |
35-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* Lions/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2.5
The Key: The Detroit Lions were shell-shocked when they blew their game against the Packers two weeks ago and lost on a hail mary to end their 3-game winning streak. That loss essentially eliminated them from playoff contention, and they proceeded to lay an egg against St. Louis on the road last week to fall to 4-9. I don't expect them to show up tonight, either. The Saints have proven that they're not going to quit. Even after a disheartening 38-41 home loss to the Panthers in Week 13, the Saints came back in Week 14 and won outright as 6-point road dogs 24-17 at Tampa Bay. They will show up tonight, especially in front of their home fans on the MNF stage. The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, winning four of them. They have averaged 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game in those five meetings. The Saints have won by 17, 14 and 18 points in their last three home meetings with the Lions. Take New Orleans.
|
12-20-15 |
Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles |
|
40-17 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* Cardinals/Eagles Sunday Night PARLAY on Arizona -3.5/UNDER 51.5
The Key for Arizona: The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they outgain teams by 95.1 yards per game. The Eagles are 26th in yardage differential as they get outgained by 33.8 yards per game. The Eagles have been outgained in four straight games by an average of 146.0 yards per game. They have all kinds of weaknesses all over the field, while the Cardinals have no weaknesses. They should roll to a comfortable victory Sunday night.
The Key for the UNDER: The Cardinals do have one of the league's best defenses as they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense at 322.4 yards per game. While I expect the Cardinals to put up plenty of points to cover, the reason I like them is because I expect them to shut down a suspect Philadelphia offense that puts up just 351.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 27-17 final score is what I'm thinking.
|
12-20-15 |
Cardinals v. Eagles UNDER 51.5 |
|
40-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* Cardinals/Eagles Sunday Night PARLAY on Arizona -3.5/UNDER 51.5
The Key for Arizona: The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they outgain teams by 95.1 yards per game. The Eagles are 26th in yardage differential as they get outgained by 33.8 yards per game. The Eagles have been outgained in four straight games by an average of 146.0 yards per game. They have all kinds of weaknesses all over the field, while the Cardinals have no weaknesses. They should roll to a comfortable victory Sunday night.
The Key for the UNDER: The Cardinals do have one of the league's best defenses as they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense at 322.4 yards per game. While I expect the Cardinals to put up plenty of points to cover, the reason I like them is because I expect them to shut down a suspect Philadelphia offense that puts up just 351.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 27-17 final score is what I'm thinking.
|
12-20-15 |
Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 45.5 |
Top |
14-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dolphins/Chargers OVER 45.5
The Key: The Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers both have nothing to play for right now. When that's the case, the defenses don't try as hard and the offenses usually have their way. I expect that to be exactly how this game plays out today. These are already two of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Dolphins give up 25.5 points per game and rank 28th in total defense, while the Chargers give up 25.7 points per game and rank 24th in total defense. Phillip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill should have monster games in this one. San Diego is 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
|
12-19-15 |
Jets -3 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-16 |
Push |
0 |
16 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* Jets/Cowboys Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -3
The Key: The Jets have everything to play for right now. They are in a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final 2 wild card spots in the AFC. One of those three teams is going to get left out, and the Jets don't want it to be them. With 3 straight wins over the Dolphins, Giants & Titans by a combined 43 points, they certainly are doing their part. The Cowboys have nothing to play for right now at 4-9. Their loss to the Packers last week, coupled with wins by the Eagles, Giants & Redskins, dropped the Cowboys to 2 games out of first place in the NFC East and done for. The motivational advantage for the Jets, plus the fact that they are far and away the superior team here, makes this a very generous line of -3. The Cowboys are 1-5 at home this season, losing by 10.0 points per game. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take New York.
|
12-17-15 |
Bucs +3 v. Rams |
Top |
23-31 |
Loss |
-119 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
7* Bucs/Rams TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3
The Key: The oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. The Rams have no business being favored when they have lost five of their last six games with the majority of them coming via blowout. They have been outgained by 129.2 yards per game in their last 5 games, and they are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season. The Bucs have outgained 9 of their last 11 opponents and are outgaining teams by 22.7 yards per game on the year. The Bucs are simply the better team here. They are 5-1 following a loss this season, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Take Tampa Bay.
|
12-14-15 |
Giants +1 v. Dolphins |
Top |
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Giants/Dolphins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1
The Key: The Giants have gone 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season. They are clearly better than their 5-7 record, but they haven't been able to finish. Now trailing the Redskins and Eagles by a half-game, who both won yesterday, the Giants will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight. The Dolphins are just as bad as their 5-7 record, if not worse. Six of their seven losses have come by 10 points or more, and they've gone 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Scoring margin tells the story as the Dolphins are getting outscored by 5.0 points per game on the season, while the Giants are outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game. The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 December games. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take New York.
|
12-13-15 |
Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 45 |
|
0-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45
The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none. Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward. I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread. I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina. Take Atlanta and the UNDER.
|
12-13-15 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5
The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall. Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less. This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points. They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time. This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result. They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego. Take San Diego and the UNDER.
|
12-13-15 |
Falcons +8 v. Panthers |
Top |
0-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45
The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none. Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward. I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread. I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina. Take Atlanta and the UNDER.
|
12-13-15 |
Chargers +11 v. Chiefs |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5
The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall. Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less. This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points. They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time. This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result. They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego. Take San Diego and the UNDER.
|
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -10 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Vikings/Cardinals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -10
The Key: The Cardinals are on a mission to finish out the season strong after floundering last year and giving way to the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title. They are off to a good start with six straight victories coming in, including a 27-3 win over the Rams on the road last week. The Vikings lost 7-38 to the Seahawks last week and will really struggle to score against this elite Arizona defense. Minnesota's defense, which is extremely banged up right now, will also struggle to slow down Carson Palmer and Arizona's top-ranked offense. This one just has blowout written all over it. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games. Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against NFC opponents. Take Arizona.
|
12-07-15 |
Cowboys +3.5 v. Redskins |
Top |
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* Cowboys/Redskins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5
The Key: With a win Monday, the Cowboys can pull within one game of the NFC East lead. With a loss, they are pretty much done. It's safe to say that they are going to be laying it all on the line to try to get a win given the situation. The Cowboys are 0-7 without Tony Romo, but they have been competitive at least. Five of those losses came by a TD or less, and two were in overtime. While I expect the Cowboys to win outright tonight, there is also a good chance it's decided by 3 points or less either way. The Cowboys have had extra prep time because they played last Thursday. The Cowboys have been the better team statistically. They are only getting outgained by 0.6 yards per game, while the Redskins are getting outgained by 27.1 yards per game. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a grass field. Its running game will be the difference in this one as Darren McFadden has a big day against a Washington defense that is giving up 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. Take Dallas.
|
12-06-15 |
Chiefs -3 v. Raiders |
|
34-20 |
Win
|
105 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* AFC West Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -3
The Key: The Chiefs cannot be stopped right now. They have gone 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall, winning by an average of 19.8 points per game. Their defense has been dynamite in giving up 12.2 points per game during the winning streak, and 18 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games. Kansas City has had Oakland's number, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings and outscoring the Raiders by an average of 14.0 points per game over those four contests. Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a home dog of 3 points or less. The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings with the Chiefs going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland. Take Kansas City.
|
12-06-15 |
Jaguars v. Titans -2 |
|
39-42 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* AFC South Game of the Week on Tennessee Titans -2
The Key: The Titans have had some heartbreaking losses this year as five of their nine losses have come by 6 points or less. They lost 13-19 to the Jaguars despite leading 13-9 heading into the 4th quarter two weeks ago. Now they'll want revenge on these Jaguars. You have to like their chances considering these teams have split the season series each of the last five years. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings as well. The Jaguars are 1-4 in true road games this season, losing by 9.4 points per game. The Titans have the better defense, ranking 7th in the NFL in giving up 331.8 yards per game. The Jaguars rank 20th in total defense at 358.5 yards per game. I like this matchup for the Titans, who rank 6th in the NFL against the pass at 224.1 yards per game. Blake Bortles will have to work for everything he gets. Take Tennessee.
|
12-06-15 |
Seahawks -1 v. Vikings |
Top |
38-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -1
The Key: The Seattle Seahawks are only 6-5, but you could make the argument that they are still the best team in the NFC. They have held a 4th quarter lead in all 11 of their games. Russell Wilson and the offense put up 39 points on the Steelers last week thanks to five touchdown passes from their star quarterback. Look for this team to continue its second-half surge with a win over the Vikings Sunday. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season and aren't as good as their 8-3 record. Teddy Bridgewater is going to have his hands full against this Seattle defense, which is one of the best in the league. Seattle ranks 5th in the NFL against the run giving up just 92.9 yards per game. It is well-equipped to stop Adrian Peterson and will force Bridgewater to have to make more plays than he's used to. The Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 December games. Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. defenses that allow 61% completions or more in the second half of the season. Take Seattle.
|
12-03-15 |
Packers -3 v. Lions |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3
The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions. They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287. Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked. The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three. The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be. The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward. Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. Take Green Bay.
|
11-30-15 |
Ravens v. Browns -3 |
Top |
33-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
35 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3
The Key: The Ravens are an absolute mess right now. They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett. I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result. I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week. I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league. McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year. He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting. The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game. Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around. The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland.
|
11-29-15 |
Patriots v. Broncos +3 |
Top |
24-30 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3
The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis. This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today. The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6). They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home. Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now. He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Denver.
|
11-29-15 |
Bucs +3 v. Colts |
|
12-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are by far the superior team in this one with the Indianapolis Colts. The Bucs rank 7th in yardage differential (+33.0/game) while the Colts rank 27th (-46.4 yards/game). The Bucs are 8th in total offense (370.7 YPG) while the Colts are 18th in total offense (345.9 YPG). The Bucs are 13th in total defense (339.1 YPG) while the Colts are 27th (392.3 YPG). Add it all up, and believe it or not, the Bucs are the better team. They are 4-1 ATS in road games this season with outright wins over the Falcons, Eagles and Saints, and a 1-point loss to Houston. They clearly love playing in domes with the way they beat the Falcons and Saints. Take Tampa Bay.
|
11-29-15 |
Bills v. Chiefs -4 |
|
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* Bills/Chiefs AFC Annihilator on Kansas City -4
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They have outscored their opponents 130-39 in the process. They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents as well. The Chiefs have allowed 18 points or fewer in 6 straight, yielding just 12.2 PPG over that span. The Bills are on a short week and should suffer a hangover from their loss to the Patriots last week. QB Tyrod Taylor will play, but he's not going to be healthy with that shoulder injury suffered against New England. The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Take Kansas City.
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys +1.5 |
Top |
33-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5
The Key: The Cowboys are showing solid value here as home underdogs to the Carolina Panthers. Jason Garrett is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Cowboys. Dallas is so much better with Tony Romo it's not even funny. The Cowboys are 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him this season. They won 24-14 over the Dolphins last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them 386-210 for the game. The Cowboys now have an elite offense again to go with one of the NFL's best defenses, giving up just 335.5 yards per game. The Panthers have had a very easy road schedule. They are 4-0 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against the Jags, Bucs & Titans. Dallas has won each of its last five meetings with Carolina and will make it six in a row here. Take Dallas.
|
11-23-15 |
Bills v. Patriots UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
60 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Bills/Patriots AFC East *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5
The Key: This UNDER fits a very profitable system dating back to 2003. It tells us to bet on all UNDERS with a total set of 44.5 or higher in division games after Week 11 or later. This system is 115-71 (61.8%) since 2003. By focusing in on late-season division rivalries, we are able to identify games in which two teams have already faced off. The level of familiarity leads to less scoring and better returns for under bettors. This system has been particularly profitable over the last 3 years, going 52-28 (67.4%). The Patriots are without two of their best weapons in Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, so don't expect to see the 40-32 shootout we saw in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 2. This is going to be a grind-it-out game where both teams lean heavily on their rushing attacks, especially the Bills, who want to shorten the game, which will allow them to keep it close. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 29-8 over the last 10 seasons. Buffalo is 7-0 UNDER vs. winning teams in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bills are 6-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 years. Take the UNDER.
|
11-22-15 |
Bengals v. Cardinals -4.5 |
|
31-34 |
Loss |
-102 |
36 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* Bengals/Cardinals Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Arizona -4.5
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals may very well be the best team in the NFL this season. They are outgaining teams by 105.0 yards per game, which is the best mark in the league. They have the #1 offense in the NFL at 421 yards per game, and they are #3 in total defense as well, giving up 316 yards per game. I like them here laying this short number against the Bengals, who are clearly overrated due to their 7-1-1 ATS record this season. The Bengals are playing on a short week after losing 6-10 at home to the Texans on Monday Night Football, which also puts them at a disadvantage. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after outgaining each of their last two opponents by 100 or more total yards. Take Arizona.
|
11-22-15 |
Raiders v. Lions +1 |
|
13-18 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +1
The Key: The line before the season on this game was somewhere in the neighborhood of Detroit -7.5. I believe we are getting serious value here with the Lions as a home underdog to the Raiders this week. Detroit has opened just 2-7, and that record has it undervalued. But this team has played better than its record, and it finally got rewarded with an 18-16 upset win at Green Bay last week as double-digit underdogs. Look for the Lions to come into this game playing with a ton of confidence now. I'm still not sold on the Raiders because of their defense. They give up 26.8 points, 408.6 yards per game and 6.1 per play this season. The Lions still have an above-average offense that is fully capable of putting up a big number on this Oakland D. The Raiders have only been favored twice this season, and they lost both of those games to the Bears and Vikings. Plays on team (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Detroit.
|
11-22-15 |
Redskins +7.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
16-44 |
Loss |
-113 |
29 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5
The Key: The Panthers are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season. They have made backers a lot of money, and as a result, they are clearly overvalued right now. They have a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the NFC, so they can afford to take their foot off the gas this week. The Washington Redskins have no such luxury. They are 4-5 on the season and can pull even with the New York Giants for the NFC East lead with a win this week. The Redskins are loaded with confidence right now after their 47-14 dismantling of the Saints last week. They racked up 526 total yards in the win, while holding the high-powered Saints to just 350 yards, outgaining them by 176. Washington is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Washington.
|
11-19-15 |
Titans v. Jaguars -3 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3
The Key: Jacksonville is 3-6 this season, but only one game back of first place in the AFC South. The Jaguars have managed three wins despite playing just three home games this season compared to six on the road. They are playing well right now, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. Their only loss was a 5-point road loss to the Jets in which they outgained them by 146 yards. Four turnovers are the only thing that prevented the Jags from winning that game. The Titans have lost five of their last six games and sit at just 2-7 on the season. Marcus Mariota is going to be without his top two receivers tonight in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Tennessee is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 vs. division opponents and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 vs. teams who are outscored by 6 or more points per game on the season. Take Jacksonville.
|
11-16-15 |
Texans +11 v. Bengals |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11
The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals could not possible be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS this season, the NFL's only team without an ATS loss. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them this week. They are now a double-digit favorite for the second consecutive week, and you're not going to lose a lot of money betting double-digit NFL favorites over the long run. We'll go the other way and side with the Texans, who are just 3-5 on the season, but they're a better team than that record. The Texans are only a half-game back in the AFC South and can pull into a tie for first place with a win this week. The Texans are outgaining teams by 18.5 yards per game this season behind the 9th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense. Houston has won five of its last six meetings with Cincinnati. Betting against favorites of 10.5 or more points, in the second half of the season, who beat the spread by 35 or more combined points over their past five games are 27-8 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Houston.
|
11-15-15 |
Lions +11 v. Packers |
|
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* NFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions +11
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Double-digit underdogs have gone 93-68 ATS since 2003 in division games. Teams that allowed at least 42 points int heir previous game are 116-81 ATS. The Lions are coming off their bye week and will be motivated for this division game against the Packers. They have only lost by more than 10 points at Green Bay in one of the last five road meetings. Take Detroit.
|
11-15-15 |
Browns +6.5 v. Steelers |
|
9-30 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* AFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Landry Jones is back at quarterback in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger. The Browns also fit a system that is 97-53 ATS and focuses on teams who are coming off a blowout against "good" teams the previous game like the one the Browns suffered against the Bengals last Thursday. Cleveland has now had extra time to prepare for Pittsburgh as well after receiving a mini-bye week. Take Cleveland.
|
11-15-15 |
Jaguars +5.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
22-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Baltimore is just 2-6 with season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr. Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam. The Jaguars outgained the Jets by 146 yards on the road last week after beating the Bills in London. The Ravens haven't beaten anyone by more than 3 points this year, and six of their eight games were decided by 5 points or less. Take Jacksonville.
|
11-12-15 |
Bills v. Jets -1.5 |
Top |
22-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5
The Key: This line is indicating that the Bills are actually the better team. Once again, the Jets aren't getting enough credit for how good they really are as only 1.5-point favorites here. They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense and 11th in total offense, outgaining teams by 42.6 yards per game. The Bills are getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game this year. This line is an overreaction from Buffalo's blowout win over Miami last week in which the Bills were in a good spot because they returned from their bye. It's also an overreaction from losses in two of the last three games from the Jets, but two of those games on the road to the Pats and Raiders, and they rebounded with a home win over the Jaguars last week. New York is now 3-1 at home this year and should be 4-0 because it outgained Philadelphia by nearly 100 yards but committed 4 turnovers in a 17-24 loss. Buffalo is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take New York.
|
11-09-15 |
Bears v. Chargers OVER 49 |
Top |
22-19 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 60 m |
Show
|
7* Bears/Chargers MNF *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 49
The Key: I like taking the OVER in games between two teams who are pretty much out of the playoff hunt. Offenses tend to play a little looser with more of a playground feel to it, and defensive don't offer as much resistance. We saw that last week in the Chargers/Ravens game, which went over the 50.5-point total. I think we'll see it again this week from the Chargers/Bears game with only a 49-point total on the Monday Night Football stage. The Chargers are 1st in the NFL in total offense at 423 yards per game and 1st in passing offense at 337 yards per game. Jay Cutler has been playing much better with Alshon Jeffery in the lineup. Jeffery has at least 100 receiving yards in all three games that he has started this season. Both defenses are awful with the Bears allowing 28.9 points per game and the Chargers giving up 28.4 per contest. Chicago is 7-0 OVER after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the past three seasons. San Diego is 58-36 OVER in its last 94 non-conference games. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 road games. Take the OVER.
|
11-08-15 |
Raiders v. Steelers -4.5 |
|
35-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
6* AFC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
The Key: The Steelers need a win after dropping their last two games to the Chiefs and Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger returned last week, but he cost the team with 3 interceptions in their 16-10 loss to the Bengals. He will certainly want to redeem himself this week. That shouldn't be a problem against an Oakland defense that ranks 31st against the pass at 302 yards allowed per game. The Raiders are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here because of their two wins over the Chargers and Jets the past two weeks. But they were coming off a bye when they faced a San Diego team that was coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss to Green Bay and didn't show up. The Jets didn't show up last week either after their tough loss to the Patriots the previous week. The Raiders are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after losing two of their past three games. Take Pittsburgh.
|
11-08-15 |
Dolphins +3 v. Bills |
|
17-33 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* Dolphins/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +3
The Key: This play fits into a system that tells us to bet on teams that lost their last game by at least 20 points, are receiving less than 50% of the spread bets, and are underdogs of 3 or more points. Teams off blowout losses are almost always undervalued. The Dolphins lost 7-36 to the Patriots last Thursday. They are not only going to be motivated following that loss, they also want revenge from a 41-14 blowout loss to the Bills earlier this year. This is a Dolphins offense that put up 41.0 points per game in two wins over Tennessee and Houston before that loss to New England. Buffalo has surrendered 34.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 who are coming off a road loss and have a losing record on the season are 25-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami.
|
11-08-15 |
Packers -2.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
29-37 |
Loss |
-117 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -2.5
The Key: Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost consecutive games as a starter since 2010. That just shows the kind of resiliency he and the Packers have had ever since he's been at the helm. After a blowout loss to the Broncos last week, the Packers will be playing with extra motivation this week. They also want to earn the tiebreaker over the Panthers if it comes down to home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Panthers are 7-0, but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record, and this will be the best team that they've played this year. The Packers are 9-0 ATS after playing a road game over the past two seasons. Take Green Bay.
|
11-05-15 |
Browns +11.5 v. Bengals |
Top |
10-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
7* Browns/Bengals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5
The Key: Johnny Manziel will get the start for the Browns and has grown a lot since last year as a player. He has thrown three touchdown passes against one interception with a very solid 93.2 QB rating this year. He led the Browns to a 28-14 win over the Titans earlier this season and has handled himself well when forced into action. While the Bengals are the better team on paper, I don't believe they are 11.5 points better than the Browns in this one. The Bengals are in a prime letdown spot off their big win over the Steelers on Sunday and likely won't bring the focus it takes to put away the Browns by double-digits. Plus, this rivalry game has been very whacky with the road team winning both meetings last year, including a 24-3 win by the Browns. The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well, so rarely do these games go as expected. Plus, I like the fact that Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Browns are actually outscoring their opponents by 4.7 points per game in this spot. Take Cleveland.
|
11-02-15 |
Colts +7 v. Panthers |
Top |
26-29 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Colts/Panthers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis Colts +7
The Key: The Indianapolis Colts really need a victory as they are sitting at 3-4 and off two consecutive losses to the Saints and Patriots. I expect them to put their best foot forward here against a Carolina team that is one of the most overvalued in the league. Despite being 6-0, I believe the Panthers are just a middle-of-the-pack team, and I actually have the Colts rated higher than them. So getting seven points here is a gift. The Panthers have faced the league's easiest schedule to this point as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record. They are only outgaining teams by 4.4 yards per game despite this easy schedule. The only other time this season the Panthers were favored by more than a field goal, they failed to cover the spread in a 27-22 home win over the Saints as 10-point favorites. Keep in mind that Drew Brees didn't play in that contest. Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games as the coach of Carolina. Take Indianapolis.
|
11-01-15 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys +5 |
|
13-12 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +5
The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season. It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread. It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%. The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all. This game doesn't technically fit the system, but that's because the Cowboys have already had their bye week. Teams with just one or fewer ATS wins in a six-game stretch are still 193-151 (56.1%) ATS in the seventh game. It's a larger sample size and a proven winner long-term. Dallas is 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and most of the bets are coming in on Seattle, but most of the money is coming in on Dallas and moving this line down from 6 to 5 and 4.5 in some places. This reverse line movement is a clear indication of sharp money on the Cowboys. Seattle is just 45-57 ATS on the road compared to 64-41 ATS at home during that same stretch. Jason Garrett is 22-12 ATS as an underdog, including 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas also fits a system that is 63-34 ATS that focuses on playoff teams from last season when they're underdogs following a loss the next season. Dallas racked up 460 total yards on the New York Giants last week and outgained them by 171, so it is not broken. Plus, Dez Bryant is expected to make his much-awaited return this week, which only helps the Cowboys. Take Dallas.
|
11-01-15 |
Chargers v. Ravens -3.5 |
Top |
26-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season. It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread. It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%. The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all. The Ravens are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system. But the Ravens clearly aren't as bad as their record as all seven of their games have been decided by 8 points or less, so they have simply been unfortunate in close games. I trust them more than the Chargers, who have lost three in a row coming in and trailed Oakland 37-6 at home last week. Look for the Ravens to rally the troops at home this week. They have only played two home games this year compared to five road games, including four trips to the West Coast, which is always difficult. Their schedule lets up going forward, starting with this week's game against the Chargers. John Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of his last 6 games as the coach of Baltimore. Take Baltimore.
|
11-01-15 |
Lions +4 v. Chiefs |
|
10-45 |
Loss |
-125 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* Lions/Chiefs Sunday *EARLY RISER* on Detroit +4
The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season. It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread. It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%. The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all. The Lions are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system. They made some major changes to the coaching staff this week, and I look for those changes to start paying dividends in London against the Chiefs. They fired their offensive coordinator and two offensive line coaches, and that's the type of bad news that I like to buy on. The Chiefs are overvalued due to beating the Steelers and third-string QB Landry Jones last week. They won the turnover battle 3-0, which aided their victory despite getting outgained 339-377 for the game. Kansas City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Take Detroit.
|
10-29-15 |
Dolphins +9 v. Patriots |
Top |
7-36 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9
The Key: The Miami Dolphins have been arguably the best team in the NFL over the past two weeks since Dan Campbell took over. They have a completely different mindset as these players are really buying into Campbell's tough man mentality. They beat Tennessee 38-10 on the road and led Houston 41-0 at home before settling for a 44-26 victory. The offense exploded for 434 total yards against the Titans and 503 total yards against the Texans. The ground game has combined for 428 yards the past two weeks as the Dolphins have gotten more physical. They are 2-2 in their last four meetings with the Patriots with the home team winning each time. But the Dolphins have led 17-3 and trailed 13-14 at halftime in their last two trips to New England, but just haven't been able to close the deal. They way they are playing right now, I believe they can pull off the upset. The Patriots are coming off two straight 7-point wins over the Colts and Jets, and I fully expect this game to be decided by a TD or less as well. The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Miami.
|
10-26-15 |
Baltimore Ravens +9 v. Arizona Cardinals |
Top |
18-26 |
Win
|
100 |
76 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* Ravens/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +9
The Key: The Baltimore Ravens certainly haven't had the season they wanted to up to this point. But John Harbaugh is the kind of coach that will keep his players focused and believing they can turn it around. The Ravens will have no problem showing up for Monday Night Football this week. They are just 1-5, but their record could obviously be a lot better. For whatever reason, they just haven't been able to get it done late in games. All six of their games have been decided by 6 points or less. That bodes well for them given this 9-point spread as I believe this contest will be decided by a touchdown or less as well. Arizona has put up some pretty solid numbers this year, but consider that its four wins have come against teams who are a combined 7-17, and that makes it much less impressive. Road teams off 5 or more straight ATS losses are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Ravens are 10-1 ATS when they fail to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games under Harbaugh. Take Baltimore.
|
10-25-15 |
Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers |
|
37-29 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Oakland +4
The Key: The Oakland Raiders return from their bye week looking for a victory to get back to .500 on the season. It beat Baltimore 37-33 at home and Cleveland 27-20 on the road, before back-to-back excruciating losses to Chicago (20-22) and Denver (10-16). As you can see, Oakland has had a propensity to play in close games this year. The same can be said for the Chargers, who are 2-4 right now with five of their six games decided by a touchdown or less. I can easily see this game being decided by a field goal one way or the other, so there's some serious value here with the Raiders catching 4 points. The fact that they're off their bye week means that they'll be more rested and prepared than the Chargers, who have to be mentally fatigued. The Chargers have essentially lost to the Steelers and Packers on the game's final play each of the last two weeks. It's going to be tough to recover from that mentally. Plays against home teams with an offense that averages at least 370 yards per game against a team that averages 335 to 370 yards per game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 straight games are 25-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chargers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West foes. Take Oakland.
|
10-25-15 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions +2 |
|
28-19 |
Loss |
-109 |
45 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +2
The Key: The Detroit Lions are just 1-5, but they have been competitive in every game outside of one with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. This team is better than they've shown, and now they are going to be undervalued in the immediate future because of their record. They were 2.5-point road dogs to Minnesota in the 1st meeting, and now they're 2-point home dogs in the rematch. I'll gladly take that value back back the Lions here as they are feeling good after beating the Bears 37-34 last week. Now they want revenge on the Vikings from that earlier loss. Minnesota is overvalued right now due to going 4-1 ATS in all games this season. But the Vikings are fortunate they don't have a worse record. They are getting outgained by 46.2 yards per game this season, while Detroit is only getting outgained by 28.1 yards per game. The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. Take Detroit.
|
10-25-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 |
|
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 58 m |
Show
|
6* AFC Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The Key: It's now or never for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule to this point during their 1-5 start. They have played four road games already with a win over Houston, but losses at Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota, which are three of the best teams in the NFL. They should be 2-0 at home, but they blew double-digit leads to both Denver and Chicago, losing in the final seconds in both games. There's no way this team should be 1-5 right now. The Chiefs actually outgained the Vikings 328-321 last week and had a chance to win with the ball late, but came up short again. The Steelers should be 0-3 without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss his 4th straight game. They were outgained by 93 yards in a 20-23 loss to Baltimore, by 57 yards in a 24-20 win at San Diego on the final play, and by 159 yards in a fluky 25-13 home win over the Cardinals last week. So, they've been outgained by a combined 309 total yards the last three games. Their luck is going to run out this week against a Chiefs team that simply wants this game more. The Steelers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in its previous game. The home team is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings. Take Kansas City.
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10-25-15 |
NY Jets +8 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 59 m |
Show
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7* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets +8
The Key: The New York Jets rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential at +110.6 yards per game and 3rd in point differential at +10.8 points per game. They are the real deal this season. They have been led by a defense that ranks 1st in scoring at 15.0 points per game and 1st in yards allowed at 269.2 per game. They have what it takes to beat the Patriots Sunday. New England is coming off that huge win over the Colts and I don't think this is a great spot for the Patriots. Consider that the last four meetings in this series were all decided by 3 points or less, and it's easy to see why the value is with the Jets this week. Plus, they have held the Patriots to only 268 yards per game in those four meetings. They just have the secret formula to beat New England, which is a top-notch defense and a running game. They rank 1st in the NFL in rushing at 146 yards per game. The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC. Take New York.
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10-25-15 |
Buffalo Bills v. Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 28 m |
Show
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6* Bills/Jaguars Sunday Morning *EARLY RISER* on Jacksonville +4.5
The Key: Jacksonville fits a contrarian betting strategy that is 115-67 (63.2%) ATS in its last 282 tries. It tells us to bet on team that are receiving less than 25% of the spread bets, who lost by 7 points or more in their last game, and who are listed as an underdog of 3.5 or more points. Teams are almost always undervalued off a blowout loss like the 20-31 setback the Jaguars suffered to the Texans last week. But they played better than that score showed, but three interceptions from Blake Bortles did them in. They actually outgained the Texans 394-382 for the game. In fact, despite being 1-5, Jacksonville is only getting outgained by 15.5 yards per game on the season. Despite being 3-3, Buffalo is getting outgained by 21.2 yards per game this year. I think these teams are much closer to equals than this line suggests. Buffalo played its first game without Tyrod Taylor last week, and it was rocked 21-34 at home by Cincinnati. Taylor is expected to miss this game, too, and E.J. Manuel simply isn't nearly as good. The Bills can't be trusted to lay points with Manuel as their quarterback. The Bills are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Take Jacksonville.
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10-22-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers |
|
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
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6* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5
The Key: Both teams are 2-4 and in need of a victory this week. I just believe the Seahawks are going to want it more, and they are more equipped to win this game in a blowout because they are simply better in all phases than the 49ers. The Seahawks would be 6-0 if they could hold on to a 4th quarter lead. All four of their losses have come after they have held the lead in the 4th quarter. I look for Pete Carroll to emphasize finishing in this one, and for his players to respond. This may be a close game early, but I expect the Seahawks to pull away in the second half. The 49ers simply aren't very good this year. They rank 31st in point differential (-10.0 PPG) and 32nd in yardage differential (-87.8 YPG), so you could make the case that they're the worst team in the NFL. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the 49ers, outscoring them by an average of 14.3 PPG. They won both meetings last year by double-digits. Take Seattle.
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10-19-15 |
NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -4 |
Top |
7-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
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7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4
The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles have simply owned Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants over the past several years. They have gone 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Giants after sweeping the season series last year, which included a 27-0 beat down in Philadelphia. The Giants need a late score to put away the lowly 49ers 30-27 at home last week. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and injuries certainly have not helped matters. They rank last in the NFL against the pass in giving up 304.2 yards per game. Sam Bradford threw for 333 yards as the Eagles racked up 519 total yards against the Saints in a 39-17 home victory last week. It appears the Eagles have finally turned the corner and I expect them to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football. Take Philadelphia.
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10-18-15 |
San Diego Chargers +11 v. Green Bay Packers |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
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7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11
The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries. It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later. Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record. San Diego is 1-4 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 5-0 ATS. The Packers might be the most overvalued team in the league right now. They should not have covered last week as 9-point favorites in a 24-10 win over the Rams. The Rams had their last five possessions in Green Bay territory, but came away with zero points. They missed three field goals and had two interceptions. San Diego has the kind of offense that will keep them in this game for four quarters. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he's leading the Chargers to an average of 410.0 yards per game. This will be by far the best passing offense that the Packers have been up against, and the best offense in general. Take San Diego.
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10-18-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
|
27-23 |
Loss |
-101 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
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6* NFC Game of the Week on Seattle Seahawks -7
The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries. It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later. Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record. Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS this season, while Carolina is 3-1 ATS. The Panthers are also 4-0 and overvalued as a result. They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL with their four opponents in Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay combining for a 5-15 record. Seattle has played one of the toughest schedule with its three road losses coming against Green Bay, St. Louis and Cincinnati, who are a combined 12-3. The Seahawks are 28-2 at home over the past four seasons and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Take Seattle.
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10-18-15 |
Washington Redskins v. NY Jets -6.5 |
|
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 5 m |
Show
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6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on New York Jets -6.5
The Key: The New York Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. They have opened up 3-1 with impressive double-digit wins over Cleveland (31-10) at home and Indianapolis (20-7) and Miami (27-14) on the road. Their only loss came at home to Philadelphia (17-24) in a game that they should have won. They outgained the Eagles by 92 yards for the game but gave up an 89-yard punt return TD that was the difference. They have actually outgained all four of their opponents. They are averaging a respectable 356.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 13.7 points and 280.2 yards per game. The Jets actually rank 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 76.0 yards per game. Only the Patriots have been better. Now they take on a deflated Washington team that just lost in overtime at Atlanta last week. But that game wasn't as close as the final score as the Redskins got a defensive touchdown and were outgained by 148 yards by the Falcons. The Jets are fresh and ready to go as they are coming off their bye week. The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take New York.
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10-15-15 |
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 v. New Orleans Saints |
Top |
21-31 |
Loss |
-101 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
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7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5
The Key: Atlanta is simply rolling right now and I do not expect the Saints to be able to slow them down. The Falcons are 5-0 this season and Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. He finally has a running game, which he hasn't had in quite some time in Atlanta. The Falcons have averaged 156 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Atlanta is putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season. Now this high-octane attack gets to go up against a New Orleans defense that allowed 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game. That matchup right there is going to lead to a blowout win for the Falcons. It also helps that Atlanta's defense is improved, limiting the Redskins to 19 points and 270 total yards last week while coming up with the game-winning interception in overtime. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last year. Take Atlanta.
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10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. San Diego Chargers |
Top |
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
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7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4
The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have had some extra time to prepare for the San Diego Chargers, which is going to be a huge advantage for them coming into this game. They last played on Thursday in a 20-23 home loss to the Ravens in a game they never should have lost, but couldn't finish late. Michael Vick made his first start in place of Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and he was at a disadvantage because he was working on a short week. Now he has had basically 10 days to get ready for this game and to expand the playbook with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley. Vick will be much more aggressive in this game, especially since he's up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game this season, while the Steelers are only giving up 18.7 points per game. The clear edge on defense goes to Pittsburgh, and I wouldn't give the Chargers as much of an edge offensively as this line indicates. The Steelers have the better weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, while the Chargers are really banged up along the offensive line. T King Dunlap and G Orlando Franklin are expected to miss this game, while T D.J. Fluker and G Chris Watt are both ganged up as well. Pittsburgh is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 games as an underdog. The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents. Take Pittsburgh.
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