This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Jacksonville St. has won nine games in each of its first three seasons at the FBS level and the Gamecocks have won or shared first place in Conference USA and went to the title game both years in which they split. They are expected to contend again and sitting 3-2 overall, this includes a 1-0 start in the conference following a win over Middle Tennessee last week, a 10-point home victory. They now hit the road for the first time in the conference and come in as road favorites and they come in 0-2 on the highway but are favored based on past perception as we have this number at Kennesaw St. -2.1. Jacksonville St. is 1-3 in its history as road favorites including 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less. The Owls are 1-3 which is obviously playing into this number as well with losses to Georgia St., one of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, Tennessee and last week at Arkansas St. by just three points. They came into FBS two years ago and went 2-10 in year one but surprised many last season by going 10-4, shared the conference title and won the C-USA Championship over Jacksonville St. 19-15. That brings in road revenge but not for us as that is something that is not usually easily attainable especially knowing Kennesaw St. is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in its two years of existence. 10* (304) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Tuesday Attraction. This line is inflated as we have it at 6.7 and that number is taking the loss of Southern Miss quarterback Ethan Hampton who is out for the season into consideration as the new starter Landry Lyddy is not a step down and his numbers have been actually better. The Golden Eagles are 1-3, 0-3 against FBS teams with the losses against Auburn, Connecticut and Tulane on the road with the latter two taking place despite getting outgained by 83 yards combined. This is a young team that came into the season the third least experienced so growing pains were expected but now they have had time to work together and the one thing they need to shore up is their rushing defense but they are not facing a rushing powerhouse here. Troy is 2-2 with the lone FBS win coming against Sam Houston St. by three points where it was outgained and the Bearkats are currently power ranked a half-point below Southern Miss. The Trojans are off a loss at Utah St. which was the first win of the season for the Aggies and while this is the Sun Belt Conference opener, they could very well be partly looking ahead to West Division favorite Louisiana next week. Past history means nothing in college football but the public will be all over Troy knowing they are 5-0 straight up and ATS in the last five meetings, all wins by double digits. 10* (301) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Primetime. New Orleans hosts longtime rival Atlanta for the 20th anniversary of the return to the Superdome following the destruction of Hurricane Katrina. The hometown Saints are going to be very popular based on that and as of Sunday late morning, two-thirds of the money is on the Saints and the line has come down from the opener with early money on the Falcons. Atlanta looked like a new team with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. but we have to decipher if it was the Falcons turning a corner or if the Packers are just that bad. It’s a little bit one both but in this matchup, the Falcons do have the better roster at the playmaker spots and their defense is actually playing exceptional as they are ranked No. 3 in Defensive Success Rate and No. 3 in both Dropback and Rushing Success Rate. Offensively, this is a game where Bijan Robinson could go off again as the Saints come in ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Success Rate and tied for last place in Rushing Success Rate. This season, teams with a rest advantage are 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS and here, we play on teams outrushing their opponents by 60 or more ypg, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (279) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We have a future on Detroit with their total wins at 10.5 and while at 2-1, it has not been a good 2-1 as 0-3 was a definite possibility with the two wins coming down to the wire. The Lions have one of the best offensive rosters in the league but still have a suspect offensive line and it is the other side which has been the real concern. Detroit is No. 31 in EPA/Play with both passing and rushing being near the bottom of the list and now they are back on the road where they will be heavily bet based on their road success off a home game but those past results were with better teams. Carolina blew a big one last week against Cleveland to fall to 1-2 and the home crowd helps in a rare primetime spot. This team has been sneaky good coming off a loss as the Panthers are currently on a 12-0 run off a straight up loss. Here, we play against teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (278) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the buy low/sell high game of the day with the latter not really being a sell high spot because it is only based on record. The Vikings are 3-0 straight up and against the number and are laying double digits only because of the public perception of the opponent. This offense is atrocious and while some can be blamed on the rotating quarterbacks, it revolves around the whole unit. The Vikings are the first team to start 3-0 with under 250 total yards in each game since the 1957 Browns and they are at the bottom of every major offensive metric category this season. The Dolphins are competing for the worst team in the NFL so this is a hold your nose play like last week and they were covering the entire game until a late penalty changed momentum and a turnover did them in but we are right back on them as ugly dogs playing an overpriced team. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 46-21 ATS (68.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (269) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is a play We played against the Bills last Sunday and they somehow not only won, but covered the touchdown margin against the Chargers in what was a 3% win probability prior to that. They have opened the season 3-0 both straight up and against the number and are in another fade spot against a team no one wants to be behind. The Buffalo offense was not very efficient last week and a bounce back can be expected but they will be facing a good defense that has allowed only 17 ppg, 278 ypg and 5.0 yppl and while struggle is not the right term, they will be tested. The Patriots have been awful and Drake Maye has been on an even worse level which makes this the ideal spot to back him and New England as they face one of the worst defenses in the league so this is the spot to get right. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (253) New England Patriots

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. To no surprise, Houston is 0-3 once again as the Texans have been one of the slowest starting teams in recent years and this time around, the offense needs a boost. This is the spot for that to happen as Dallas possesses one of the worst defenses in the NFL as it sits near the bottom of the league in ypc, ypa and yppl while allowing 387 ypg and 27 ppg. So far, 29 different players have taken at least one defensive snap for the Cowboys and while the experience might be beneficial, it shows limited top line talent. The Texans offense gets a boost with the return of Nico Collins which comes after C.J. Stroud off a horrible game. Dallas is 1-2 following a loss against Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro and that travel could have an adverse effect on the Cowboys and knowing they have a short week with Tampa Bay on Thursday. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Bears and Case Keenum came through for us Monday night with the whole world to see and they are now again trending high even with Caleb Williams still out. Keenum had his time to shine but will go back to backup as Tyson Bagent will get the call and while we totally respect what head coach Ben Johnson will bring to the table, this is a tough spot for Chicago coming off that win and a divisional game with Green Bay on deck. It will be tough for the offense to replicate what it did against a much better defense. The Jets are 1-2 with both losses coming in games they could have won and you can see the confidence from this team that was not evident last season. The defense as mentioned is No. 7 in Rushing EPA and on the other side, Geno Smith can continue his success against a bad defense. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 43-19 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (255) New York Jets

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Cincinnati won for us last week at home against Kansas St. as an underdog as the Bearcats were geeked up for that one following their big comeback against Miami Ohio and that home game being at night in a massive revenge spot and it resulted in another come-from-behind win. Now comes the letdown following two exciting wins by five points each to improve to 4-0 after opening with a pair of blowout wins over Boston College and Western Carolina. Cincinnati now makes the west coast trip for its first true road game of the season. Arizona is 3-1 with the loss coming at BYU just 11 points no thanks to a pick six so it was a quality loss but the Wildcats are already behind the eight ball in the Big 12 Conference, sitting at 0-1 so now they have to take care of business at home. Arizona is 0-4 ATS so there is value in a buy low spot in what is a great situation at home. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992. 10* (180) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. USC got blitzed at home against Oregon despite Ducks quarterback Dante Moore getting knocked out which evidently fired them up. The Trojans need to rebound as this is a statement game after that bad look situation and the fact they have to travel to Penn St. next week and we all know how they struggle in the Eastern Time Zone. The season is far from over but a loss here and they could be cooked. This is a number they can easily cover following a loss. Washington was expected to make some noise in the Big Ten Conference but it has been far from impressive. The Huskies opened with the Apple Cup and played a closer than expected game and the other FBS games resulted in a two-point win over Utah St., which got its first win just last week, and a three-point loss to Minnesota at home and this marks their first road game. This looks like a team not into playing. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (182) USC Trojans

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We played Marshall in its season opener and it forgot to get off the bus as it was outgained 487-447 but has since won three straight games, albeit unimpressively as they came by a combined nine points but wins are wins. We are back on the Thundering Herd here in their Sun Belt Conference opener and this team was picked to contend in the East Division with four other teams including this week’s opponent. Despite the average results, the offense is playing well with the exception of the Penn St. game as quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is leading the team efficiently with excellent numbers. James Madison is 4-0 both straight up and ATS and the latter is helping up with this number which is overinflated. The Dukes are part of that contending group as this is a really good team but to be favored by this many points is a bit much. They have hardly faced an offense with a pulse and now that changes. Here, we play on road teams allowing 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 280 to 330 ypg. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (147) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our MAC Game of the Month. Massachusetts has been a major surprise this season as it is 4-0 with those four wins already half of their wins since 2019 when they went a combined 8-68. The Minutemen are on everyone’s radar now and with that comes inflating lines and that is the case here. Two of the four wins were against FCS teams, another against Sacramento St., arguably the worst FBS team in the country and in its first year up from the FCS and Rutgers. The emergence of quarterback Pop Watson is making the rounds and now everyone is lining up at the betting window. Eastern Michigan is no powerhouse but we don’t need the win and it comes in 2-3 with the wins coming against the already mentioned Sacramento St. and an FCS team with a one possession loss against San Jose St. teams and the other against two Wisconsin and Michigan St. This is the buy low/sell high spot. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (129) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Central Michigan got slaughtered last weekend against Miami 52-3 as it failed to cover the 41.5 points but that was a pay day only and now the real season starts. The Chippewas have a chance to contend after a 7-6 season including 5-3 in the MAC despite being -17 in turnovers and now they open the slate as a short favorite against one of the notoriously worst teams in the conference. They are back home where they have allowed 10 ppg in two games and are in position to keep that defense going. Akron had won four and five games respectively the last two seasons and looked like it may be on the rise but it has opened 1-3 and is already dealing with some significant injuries. Akron has averaged just 8.8 yards per reception this season 4th-worst among FBS Offenses so they have not been able to create explosive plays, while defensively they apply no pressure as they are averaging only one sack per 62.5 pass attempts, worst in the country. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (164) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Main Attraction. Florida took care of business for us last week as it rolled over Mississippi which was in a letdown spot after the Rebels were coming off the LSU Win but now the Gators find themselves in a similar spot. They have looked great thus far and it has been a huge turnaround from their 4-8 record from last season as they have outgained opponents by over 180 ypg and outscoring them by over 30 ppg but now they head into a brutal spot with the spotlight on them and the line being inflated because of it. Missouri opened the season 3-0 but suffered its first loss last week at resurgent Mississippi St. as the defense got torched for 499 total yards. The Tigers had a very unimpressive win over Troy prior to that as they were outgained 323-230 as big favorites but now they are in a role they flourish in as they are 6-0 ATS under head coach Eli Drinkwitz as home underdogs of six or less. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (196) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Syracuse is off to a disappointing 1-2 start and it is even more disappointing considering both of those losses were winnable and coming off a bye week is a big edge to regroup. The Orange lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. They then lost to Pittsburgh as they were outgained by only 21 yards but simply failed to execute while untimely turnovers again. Now they take a step down in class as Connecticut comes in 2-2 but this is a team that has a bad matchup with its horrible defense. The loss of head coach Jim Mora is showing but we knew that coming in as the roster got gutted with only one starter having come back. Here, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in three straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (113) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. With Louisville losing last week against Wake Forest, the winner of this game could make a run at the ACC Championship and we are backing the home team in what is going to be an intense environment. The Hokies are 4-0 that includes a pair of wins at Maryland and Boston College the last two weeks and while those teams are not good, winning those on the road is still impressive for a team that could not do it that much recently. Head coach James Franklin revamped the defense and it is outstanding, allowing just 16 ppg and while they face a true test here, being at home surely helps. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer does not get the same amount of recognition as Pittsburgh’s Mason Heintschel but he has been great with a 74.3 completion percentage while posting an 8-0 TD/INT Ration. The Panthers come in with a very similar resume so these teams are even on paper but this is now their first road game of the season. Bettors are discounting the close BC win due to the weather and believe on a neutral field the Hokies are very slightly better. Here, we play on home teams coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (108) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our AAC Game of the Month. Tulsa suffered its first loss of the season as it fell at Arkansas 34-6 as it was simply outclassed against a team from the SEC even though it was a bad Razorbacks team. The Golden Hurricane could do nothing on offense as they were outgained 441-221 but they expect to get quarterback Baylor Hayes back as he is listed as questionable after missing two games with a knee strain but is trending on returning. This team has a vicious defense as the defensive line is aggressive and applies plenty of pressure and has led them to allowing just 15.3 ppg. On the other side, North Texas is 2-2 as it defeated UNLV by 38 points but that is a team looking for answers and the Rebels lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Mean Green other win was against Houston Christian of the FCS last week and while they should improve as the season moves along, this is an awful spot for them as their potent offense will face a massive test. As for their own defense, it has been inconsistent and this could be the spot Tulsa needs to get that offense back on track. We are getting an exceptional number on top of it. Here, we play on home teams after scoring 9 points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Pittsburgh came through for us last week as a divisional home underdog and now the role is reversed for the Steelers. They outgained the Bengals 411-352 after compiling 499 yards total in their first two games combined so which team shows up? They now face a stronger defense as the Bengals made them look like the teams from 10-20 years ago and we cannot trust them on the road. Aaron Rodgers had a good game last week but his numbers are below average as he is completing just 58.4 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Cleveland is 2-1 after back-to-back wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay by a combined seven points so this record could be worse. They have been outgained in all three games and will not be the popular play with this being similar to Philadelphia on Monday night when the vast majority of the money was on the Eagles and as of Tuesday, it is a similar story for the Steelers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 2017. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our Wild Card Game of the Month. Opening day of the MLB Playoffs closed with a pair of shutouts last night including the Red Sox as they got shut down by Cam Schlittler and they obviously need the offense to get something going. Max Fried had an excellent finish to the season but his final start was the worst as he allowed four runs over 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay. He has allowed six runs across 13.2 innings at home since the end of August. Sonny Gray has been really good since coming to Boston and they are looking for a similar start they got from Peyton Tolle last night and he enters the postseason having posted four quality starts in September. He allowed three runs in 13.2 innings in two starts against the Yankees this season. 10* (905) Boston Red Sox

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Obviously, the Bears are shorthanded on offense with Caleb Williams out and they will turn to Case Keenum who is seeing his first action since 2023 and with that, the line has not moved since it was announced on Monday. We are not sure what to expect from the Chicago offense but we will see a veteran presence and the offense will be relying heavily on the run games. The Philadelphia defense is dead last in the league in in time to pressure so they are not getting to the quarterback. Head coach Ben Johnson will have a solid game plan. The Eagles offense has not been lighting it up and have played two poor defenses. Philadelphia has issues of their own as the interior offensive line is an absolute mess, which is creating problems in pass protection and the running game. Tight end Dallas Goedert, who has played a big role early on, will miss this game because of a knee injury. Johnson has coached 21 total games off a SU loss, both as offensive coordinator with the Lions and coach of Bears and is 15-6 straight up and ATS. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (490) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Late Powerhouse. Arizona upset the Chargers in the season opener and the question is, was it because the Cardinals have potential or was it based on the Chargers being bad. We think it is the former despite Arizona getting rolled by Seattle last week but that was a tough spot. Now they play a second straight divisional game at an inflated price and road divisional dogs in the first three months of the season when playing in optimal weather have cashed 56 percent of the time since 2003. The 49ers are and have been a very public team and going back the last three seasons, they are 2-9 ATS after scoring 30 or more points with some of that due to the line in that next game being inflated to counter public money. They have looked great and once again, the linesmakers have to adjust. The Cardinals fall into the same situation as the Chargers as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (481) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. The Steelers are coming off another poor offensive effort, this time against the Patriots and they come in as another ugly dog that no one will be on. Pittsburgh still has a stifling defense that plays even better at home and the stop unit allowed only 13 points to the Patriots offense after allowing 13 points to the Falcons. We are banking on that defense like it has stepped up in the past and the Steelers have relished this spot as they are 12-2-2 ATS as a home underdog in division games dating back to 2000. The Bengals are 2-0 thanks to the Buccaneers giving it away with four turnovers and they are outgained by 107 yards to the Texans. What is more telling where the sharp money is however as 80 percent of the handle and 93 percent of the money is on the Bengals yet the line has not moved since last Sunday night. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (464) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs and Dolphins have also started the season in opposite directions at 2-0 and 0-2 respectively. This one has extra special appeal as the Dolphins opened the season with two games on the road while Kansas City opened with two primetime home games and now hit the road in the heat and humidity. They are the public side which is no surprise and the line had not moved all week until Friday morning when the line actually came down a half-point across the board. The Dolphins were not competitive in either game on the scoreboard but they actually outgained the Raiders 5.9 to 4.3 in yppl and while we are not comparing the Chiefs to the Raiders, the pointspread is the greatest equalizer. In the first nine games of the regular season, home dogs of seven or more are 23-4-2 ATS since 2022. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points after playing a game at home going up against an opponent after a two game road trip. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Washington is our first ugly dog on Sunday as the public is not surprisingly all over the Seahawks. The Commanders are 0-2 and are now without quarterback Jayden Daniels who once again dislocated his elbow and they will again rely on Marcus Mariota who was forced into service against Dallas and was actually really good. He now faces a much better defense but has had a week of preparation and he is not going to asked to do everything. Seattle is 2-0 with a win over New England after Sam Darnold went down and then a trouncing of Arizona last week. This line has gone up five points since opening at 2.5 and we aren’t sure if Daniels is worth that but 79 percent of the tickets and 75 percent of the money thinks so. Going to a quarterback with little to no experience is one thing but backing a veteran is a non-issue. Sam Darnold is likely to return so wait on this line as it will go up even more. Here, we play on home teams in conference games, off 2 straight division games. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (462) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Early Attraction. We never thought the Chargers would be considered an ugly dog but here they are. They have been hot garbage, losing outright to the Cardinals and Raiders and they are already considered cooked by some. We aren’t going there just yet and this is the ideal spot to back them as this is as contrarian as it gets not only playing on a team that is 0-2 but going against the other side that seems unbeatable. The Chargers are just the second team in 60 years to lose their first two games when favored by at least 6.5 points with the other team being the 2022 Bengals which won game three and eventually went to the AFC Championship. Buffalo has looked great through two games, defeating two solid teams while covering and in this instance, they are playing with extra rest, another contrarian aspect. Desperation can be a good thing. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (477) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic is coming off an ugly 16-10 win over Florida International in the Shula Bowl and that result helps us here as this number could be even higher. The Owls got absolutely rolled by Florida in their season opener but came back with an upset over Navy before the win last week where we can call a fortunate one. The Owls were outgained by 99 total yards but used a 3-0 turnover advantage and stopped the Panthers three times on fourth down in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Normally we would be weary of that false final but Florida Atlantic has a massive edge as quarterback Caden Veltkamp and the potent passing attack will have their way against one of the worst passing defenses in the country in the Warhawks, which come in 0-3 including losses to UAB and FCS SE Louisiana. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after 2 straight losses by six or less points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (395) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Main Attraction. One of the marquee games comes from the old Pac 12 as Oregon looks to regroup against a quality team. The Ducks narrowly defeated Boise St. at home and then lost at Oklahoma St. and while they defeated Portland St. 84-0 last week, we can’t take much out of that as it was a glorified practice. What it did do was give the players a confidence boost on the simple things and that can go a long way as we have seen these lopsided victories do future wonders. Oregon has a chance to keep that offensive momentum going as USC comes in having started off poorly on defense. The Trojans are No. 110 in Adjusted EPA/Play and are coming off a game at Rutgers, which lost to UMass and Boston College, and allowed 460 yards and four scores and on the season, they have allowed 26, 30 and 35 points in three of four games. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 2022. 10* (399) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. This is a game of opposite travel situations and should help Utah St. get into the win column for the first time this season. The Aggies return home after back-to-back road games against Washington and Utah where they managed 14 and 0 points respectively. The big cause for concern was the season opener where they lost 29-17 against FCS Idaho St. but Utah St. lost the turnover battle 4-0 so that was a fluke. We did win with the Aggies against Washington as they lost by only two points as a four-touchdown underdog and that letdown led to a poor effort last week against Utah. Conversely, Troy is coming off a road game, a 27-17 loss to Missouri and have to go back-to-back on the road, this one in high altitude. The Trojans two wins were against Sam Houston St. by three points where they were outgained and Alabama St. of the FCS. Here, we play against road teams averaging 6.4-7.5 ypa going up against teams allowing 5.6-6.4 ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-4 (87.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (410) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. Sometimes big wins can carry momentum and we think that is the case for Cincinnati. The Bearcats came back from a 28-7 deficit against Miami Ohio to win 35-31 and claim The Victory Bell in what was the last one in this oldest non-conference rivalry for at least the near future which is a travesty. Cincinnati is now 3-0 and making this a non-letdown spot is the fact this is the Big 12 Conference opener so the Bearcats will be jazzed for a night home game. Kansas St. came up small for us as it failed to cover against Tulane as they let the Green Wave hang around and they coasted prior to their own conference opener. They have looked excellent thus far and they come in favored which maybe should be the case but not at this number. Here, we play home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (346) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Vanderbilt is coming off one of the most improbable wins so far this season and one of the craziest endings to a game in recent memory. Coming off that last second win to improve to 3-0, the Commodores now hit the road for the first time this season likely still in celebration mode despite this being their conference opener. Vanderbilt was the big story of last season, narrowly missing out on the CFP but it had a lot of turnover coming into this season and the first road game makes it tougher. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season at home against Florida and it gets to remain home to rebound from that defeat. We are seeing a 12-point swing and the big line is going to lure in the public to back Vanderbilt since everyone saw that ending last week. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) since 2017. 10* (390) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Year. Here is another letdown spot and this is one of the biggest letdowns we have encountered in a while. Mississippi is coming off the massive win over LSU and while it wasn’t a big time upset, it was the situation that it took place in which will put the Rebels in a vulnerable spot here. This could be considered a letdown spot for Florida which had a big win at Auburn but the difference we like here is that the Gators do the reverse travel and head home. Florida put up 495 passing yards against Auburn and that is where they should once again be able to find success as Mississippi sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators. Here, we play against road teams after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 28-11 (71.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (342) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We are starting to find some situations to play on or against with coming off big wins and losses and Kentucky is coming off the former. The Wildcats defeated Texas A&M on the road by 10 points to improve to 2-1 but it was a backwards victory as they were outgained by the Aggies which ran a whopping 30 more plays but could not get anything going. The win was huge which came after that Alabama second half debacle and now this presents a massive out of conference letdown and the fact they have South Carolina on deck. South Alabama is 2-1 with nothing overly exciting to get amped about but the Jaguars have outgained all three opponents as the only loss was to Tulane by four points despite outgaining the Green Wave 54 points. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (333) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Navy is coming off an early bye week following a 1-1 start as it rolled over Towson and then lost a tough one against Florida Atlantic. The Midshipmen have Air Force on deck which is normally a lookahead situation but in this case, there is no chance following a loss and then a bye week as this has been the circled game. They lost to the Owls due to allowing 386 yards passing but the good news is that UAB averages just 159.3 ypg through the air so there is no danger there. Navy will use its typical power running game to get the job done and will have little resistance here from the Blazers even with a new quarterback as Jackson Gutierrez has run this offense just fine. UAB is 1-2 with the lone win coming against UAB at home by six points and it was a rare favorite but this is a team that is in complete rebuilding mode as only three starters came back and while they get a rare home game on a Friday night, this is a game where they should be overmatched just like they have been in each of the last three seasons. Here, we play against home teams after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 40-11 (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (307) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. How bad is Atlanta? The Falcons are 0-2 and have scored only 16 points following their game this past Sunday where they managed only three points against Carolina, the same Carolina team that allowed 59 points last week. Quarterback Cooper Rush is clearly not a starter in this league while Jack Strand, who was a preseason darling, threw a pick six on his first NFL pass., Now they finally get Michael Penix Jr. back as he was named the starter and he looks to jumpstart and offense that has made history as the Falcons are the 4th team since NFL Play-by-Play was first tracked in 1978 without a redzone drive through two games. All of this adds up to value. Green Bay got away with one against the Jets as the Packers managed only 199 total yards and averaged only 4.7 yppl. They have zero running game while Jordan Love is completing only 52 percent of his passes as he is working behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and now they lost right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and their top two left guards, starter Aaron Banks and backup Donovan Jennings on Sunday. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2017. 10* (301) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Liberty came through for us Saturday as it finally put a complete game together against Ball St. and now the Flames are back on the road as a public favorite as this line has already flipped. This is a fade from an overreaction standpoint and while we expected a big effort from Liberty, a lot of that was going against Ball St. which was in an awful spot. The Flames put up 460 yards on offense but does that performance represent the offense moving forward or whether the first two games provide a more accurate indication as they struggled against James Madison and Gardner Webb. Despite Coastal Carolina entering at just 1-2, its offensive production and overall statistical profile have been better than the record might suggest as the two losses were on the road at West Virginia and Delaware by one possession. The only home game was a scrimmage against Fordham so there is not much to go off of but a primetime stand-alone game gives the Chanticleers the big edge and we are getting points on top of it. Here, we play against -teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses going up against an opponent in the first month of the season, a bowl team from the prior season who lost their last 3 games. This situation is 65-25 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Prime Attraction. The Astros remain in the hunt in the American League West as they are tied with the Rangers after getting swept by the Braves over the weekend but they did bounce back with a 7-0 win last night. They are in good shape with the final four games after tonight coming against the Athletics. Houston is 10-3 in its last 13 road games against teams with a losing record. Ethan Pecko is making one last start this season and he is coming off two outings where he allowed three runs across nine innings. The Mariners still have a glimmer of home but it is paper thin. The Mariners will need to win their final five games and the Astros and Rangers will need to lose their final five games. George Kirby has been horrible down the stretch with a 5.77 ERA over his last 10 starts. Seattle is 11-19 this season at home with a moneyline between +125 and -125. 10* (973) Houston Astros

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our Divisional Game of the Month. Arizona is four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and it will basically need to win out to have any chance and being in Colorado has them heavily favored with the must win scenario juicing it up even more. Mike Soroka has made one start since mid-August since getting back in the rotation and it was a decent one as he allowed one run over five innings but he has been inconsistent. Colorado has opened this homestand 2-5 and are now one loss away from 100 which would be the fourth straight season of 100 losses and now they start their final home series. This is the final home start for Kyle Freeland and possibly the final start of his Rockies career and he is also back after being out and he has been fairly solid with a 3.93 ERA over his last six starts. The Rockies are 8-1 in his last nine starts against winning teams with a percentage between .501 and .540. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a very public play with 74 percent of the money on the Rams but the public side gets their wins too. The Rams are coming off the dreadful appearance in Australia but have had time to adjust to the time difference and travel time, which we saw with San Francisco yesterday. This is the exceptional bounceback spot and we now have the number to work with. The Giants came through for us last week on Sunday night in a big home divisional win and because this is only Week Two, it is not a letdown spot but a brutal travel situation and having to face a team off a mini-bye loss. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a home underdog, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Chiefs are back as we all witnessed what they did against Denver. No they are not. Patrick Mahomes orchestrated the offense similar to the Chiefs of the past few seasons. No he didn’t. Kenneth Walker was the big bright spot for the Chiefs and he is going to play a big part this season but part of the opener as a whole was that Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. The Colts are no top defense but it will be better than that. Indianapolis had no chance against Baltimore and that puts them in a favorable spot as teams coming off an ATS loss by seven or more points in the opener and are a dog Week Two are 39-15-1 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2014. Additionally, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (277) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Broncos could not have looked worse last week. As mentioned in one other game analysis, Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. This is fixable, especially when it is only Week Two and heading home, this problem will be shored up. Bouncing back from that loss is most important but there is revenge at hand as Jacksonville came in here last season and rolled to a 34-20 win but Denver won the yards 445-346. Jacksonville looked in mid-season form in its win against Cleveland but the Browns are already candidates for the worst team in the league. Now they go to altitude in Wee Two (last year it was in December) and here, we play against road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 27-14 (65.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (270) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. There were many disappointments last week with the Chargers ranking in the top three of that category with Los Angeles counterpart the Rams and Broncos being there and this is a great bounce back spot. It was not a fluke loss for the Chargers, they never looked like they should have won that game and while that might sound concerning going forward, great teams respond and we think they fit that category. The new Mike McDaniel offense was expected to show something but as he called it, it was disjointed and uncomfortable but we see a huge turnaround here. The Raiders opened with a win but was not overly impressive, outgaining Miami by just 31 yards. Kirk Cousins was 21-30 but averaged 5.3 ypa which is pretty awful and was No. 29 of 32 quarterbacks that had 10 or more snaps. Here, we play against team off a home win by 10 points or more, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10*(268) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The first overreaction comes in a matchup between Green Bay and New York and on opposite ends. The Packers held a 22-10 lead in the third quarter against the Vikings before the bottom fell out with 29 unanswered points from Minnesota and now the season is already over for Green Bay. Admittedly, their offensive line is a liability and faces a tough front from the Jets but one that is unlikely to blitz 83 percent of the snaps which the Vikings did. New York played a very efficient game but that was against Tennessee with a new staff, new systems and apparently not a new culture. We were high on Tennessee coming in to the season and still could be sans the one game but the Jets are not as good as that opener looked. The Packers rebound. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by four or more last season, in weeks 1-3, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore was pegged as a favorite in the AFC to win the conference and it played the part in Week One and now the Ravens come in overpriced as the injury bug has already hit. Zay Flowers has been ruled out and two offensive line starters are doubtful yet Baltimore is favored north of a touchdown. Adding to the Baltimore drama, the NFL continues to ruin the NFL as the Ravens have a game in Brazil against the Cowboys next week to add to their distractions. New Orleans fell behind 21-0 last week in Detroit and nearly pulled off the win and it does not get easier here. We love the resiliency of this team and are in a spot to make more noise. We know Lamar Jackson is 25-3 against the NFC but that record dips to .500 ATS and being shorthanded is not ideal. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that finished last season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in weeks 1-3. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Early Attraction. The first inkling here is to take Houston after its tough loss to the Bills and fading the Bengals off their win over Tampa Bay. The big issue here is that this line has not moved despite the status of Joe Burrow who is now considered questionable with back tightness but there is a very unlikely chance that he will not play as this is the typical cat and mouse play. The Texans opener against the Bills was a chance to open with a big win but the defense could not stand up and the public is expecting a bounce back as 76 percent of the money is on Houston yet, no line move. The Texans are down to a skeleton crew at wide receiver with Nico Collins being ruled out and now Xavier Hutchinson is the top guy. No interest in that. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (261) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Dog. This is a low key rivalry game that is finally back on for the first time since 2002 and it is being played on a neutral field with the line being inflated for Virginia with a lot of that based on its big win over NC State to open the season and its current ranking. What we like better is the way West Virginia has looked on offense and has the potential for success. The key for the Mountaineers will be controlling the line of scrimmage and allowing quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. to use his mobility to extend plays. West Virginia has averaged 41.5 ppg, giving it enough offensive firepower to challenge Virginia's defense, especially on the ground. Virginia deserves respect at No. 25, but the Cavaliers are being asked to win by more than a touchdown, and that creates value on the West Virginia side and it is another game with the rushing dog shortening the game. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 33-15 ATS (68.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (188) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our Saturday Contrarian Crusher. Rice was a big letdown last week as it fumbled four times in the first half but the Owls failed to get the backdoor as they had their late opportunities but failed. They are back home catching a big number and it is a decent advantage playing in the heat and humidity that Western Michigan is not used to. Part of the capping last week was that Rice would use its option game to shorten the contest and they will now have the edge of a shortened game and getting points as Western Michigan is also run heavy so catching a big number in a game atmosphere like this is big. The Broncos are coming off a win over Monmouth last week but they were outgained in doing so which came after the Michigan controversy and because of that, they are now a public team. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season off a home win by 17 points or more after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (182) Rice Owls

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Liberty is coming off a one point win against Gardner Webb of the FCS with the latter being the more fired up team as their head coach was fired for misconduct after coaching just one game so they came together as a team. That narrow win is keeping this number within reach as the Flames are not going to be very popular. They outgained James Madison in the season opener but suffered another one possession loss which has marred them of late and that includes three overtime losses last season. Ball St. is one of the worst teams in the FBS as the win last week was against one of the worst teams in the FCS in Stony Brook. This is a woodshed game and the value is huge. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our Saturday Revenge Rout. Kansas St. has not been tested yet with its two wins and it will not be tested here either. The Wildcats have outgained their two opponents by an average of 279 ypg while the offense is averaging 303.5 ypg on the ground and that is bad news for Tulane. The Green Wave have been outgained in both games while allowing 216 ypg rushing and they are coming off a fake win last week over South Alabama as they were outgained and out first downed 25-13. While it was in 2022, Kansas St. is playing with revenge from a 17-10 loss and while none of the current Wildcat players were involved, head coach Collin Klein has been feeding them this week how the university and program were embarrassed. Here, we play on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points from a Power 4 conference and with an experienced quarterback going up against a G6 team and with an inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (124) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Game of the Month. Clemson got blown out by LSU in its season opener and the box score did not lie as the Tigers were utterly dominated from start to finish. They defeated Georgia Southern last week 22-7 and it was supposed to be the get right game and that score does not show that. They had two redzone turnovers and had to settle for five field goals so it should have been a lot worse and now is the true get right game in this conference opener in a highly motivated situation. North Carolina upset TCU in its season opener and then defeated East Tennessee St. of the FCS last week after a but and now the Tar Heels hit the highway for their first true road game. The departure of defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and everything surrounding it could cause an unnecessary distraction. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with four or fewer defensive starters returning. This situation is 88-51 ATS (63.3 percent) since 2022. 10* (120) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Houston is 2-0 while averaging 55 ppg, and the market has moved from Texas Tech around -13.5 at open to -7.5. They already have a common opponent as both have played Oregon St. Houston outgained Oregon St. 533-376, while Texas Tech allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers and were outgained 472-352 overall. The Cougars came in a sleeper to win the Big 12 Conference following 10 wins last season and while we do not typically play the road revenge angle, Houston has the roster and motivation to get that payback or at least keep this one within reach. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points good passing team from last season with a completion pct of 58% or better, in weeks 0-3, after allowing 8 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (109) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Buffalo pulled off the come-from-behind win over Houston on the road and now the Bills head home for their first ever game in the new Highmark Stadium but we are not playing them because of that as a new stadium isn’t really a motivator. Buffalo is simply the better team and has a huge home field advantage no matter what stadium they are in. The defense could be considered a concern as they allowed 31 points and 381 total yards but Houston ran 70 plays and only averaged 5.4 yppl while the Buffalo offense averaged 8.2 yppl with a +2.8 yppl differential. Conversely, Detroit was outgained 469-369 against New Orleans but snuck out the overtime win. The Lions were outgained 5.8 to 5.1 yppl so it was not a great performance at home and now they have to hit the road on a short week after an overtime game so they are in a very tough position. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 35 points or more last game. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2022 with an average scoring differential of +10.8 ppg. 10* (104) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Prime Attraction. The White Sox have fallen out of first place in the American League Central for the first time in 75 days as they have lost seven of nine and are 5-12 in their last 17 games. Erick Fedde comes in as the favorite as he has been solid of late with a 1.50 ERA over the last month that includes two starts and 24 overall innings combined. He has a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts while pitching to a 4.51 xERA. The Tigers started to make a move up in the Wild Card standings but have fallen back. Framber Valdez never panned out this season as he has a 4.01 ERA in 29 starts but he has been pitching solid of late as well as he has a 2.93 ERA over the last month across five starts. On the road he is pitching to a 3.84 xERA which is better than what he has at home. 10* (963) Detroit Tigers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Syracuse let us down last weekend as it lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. This line is inflated because of the final score and not what exactly transpired in the game itself. Pittsburgh rolled over Miami Ohio in its opener but struggled against Central Florida last week as it only won 12-7. The box score shows it should have been a bigger victory so it can be argued the win was a little flawed but the Panthers do not deserve to be such a big favorite in their conference opener. Here, we play on road teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (105) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Brewers are National League Central Champions for the fourth straight season following their win on Tuesday coupled with the Cubs loss to the Braves. Logan Henderson gets the ball in this massive letdown spot and he will certainly not be stretched out here as now it is time to be more concerned about the postseason. In his 16 starts, Milwaukee is 8-0 at home but just 4-4 on the road. Jared Jones counters for the Pirates which are now a game under .500 and while he has had an average season, it is only due to a few bad starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his last 14 starts including giving up no runs in his last two outings. 10* (906) Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Prime Attraction. The Padres are in good position in the National League Wild Card as they have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks but this is the time to play against such teams as they are overvalued due to the must win scenario. Casey Mize was acquired at the trade deadline and he has not been great for San Diego as he has a 6.35 ERA in seven starts with just 22 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. Tomoyuki Sugano counters for the Rockies who are out to play spoiler within the division. He has not had a great season in his first with the Rockies his one value point is that he has pitched better at home than on the road and the Rockies have gone 8-5 in his 13 home starts while winning 5.5 units. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have not been able to solve the Dallas Cowboys as they are 2-16 over the last 18 meetings so it comes as no surprise that they open the season as home underdogs. While we do not think they are going to take the league by storm, we do like the direction they are going as last season was a disappointing 4-13 result but there were good signs as long as they can stay healthy, namely Jaxson Dart. Last season, three of their four wins were by 17 points or more while seven losses were by one possession so things should have been better. Then there is Jim Harbaugh who is ready to change this culture. Dallas is again getting props to make a run at the NFC East as it finished with one of the best offenses in the NFL but the defense was atrocious. The Cowboys made numerous changes on that side of the ball but it could take time to come together. 10* (480) New York Giants

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is another instance where we are fading a bad defense and an overvalued public team. The Packers snuck into the playoffs last season but were one and done after losing their final four regular season games and now they start the season with a lack of a running game with the absence of Josh Jacobs. Defensively they will be without Micah Parsons for at least four games and that will be felt as they face a new quarterback for the Vikings in Kyler Murray and what better way for a career resurrection than to be taught by Kevin O’Connell, just go back a couple years and look no further than Sam Darnold. The Vikings have the better defense and the goal is to get pressure on Jordan Love without needing to blitz and they should accomplish that. This number did a flip but there is still value as in this type of divisional game, the number should be three. 10* (478) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. We have seen this line move a point since opening and it is now over the key number of three. We are high on Cincinnati this season as we bet its team total over 10.5 with the main reasons being that they will be facing the easiest schedule along with going up against the easiest projected offenses in total. This is not one of those situations as Tampa Bay is one of the few quality opponents even though it finished on a 2-7 run last season and the contrarian aspect of that includes the Buccaneers finishing last season going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games. The Bengals fell short as well because Joe Burrow again missed a ton of time and they had one of the worst defenses which they tried to fix this offseason. However this is a wait and see so we will grab the value and this number easily could go up more close to game time as it will not be going down. 10* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Chicago had one of its best seasons in recent memory as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. The Bears were very fortunate as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. Also, seven wins came when trailing under two minutes. We expect regression especially with a defense that is not good and already dealing with injuries. The last time we saw Carolina, it nearly pulled off a stunner against the Rams in the playoffs and the Panthers open the season as home underdogs, a role they have succeeded in as they are 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. Another great value play. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Late Night Powerhouse. Sacramento St. is one of two new teams to enter the FBS and it has been an encouraging start as it is 1-1 with the loss being a close one at Eastern Michigan followed up by a blowout win over Mississippi Valley St. The issue with the latter is that the Delta Devils are notoriously the worst team in the country year after year so it meant nothing except for posting its first ever FBS win. The Hornets have been a top team in the FCS for years but they basically lost everyone and got a new head coach in Alonzo Carter and the worst part, they were granted a move to the FBS after the portal so they got slim pickings. Fresno St. opened with a 39-0 loss at USC as the offense mustered only 116 total yards while the defense allowed 552 yards. This is an overreaction but it was against one of the best teams in the country and the Bulldogs are going to be Pac 12 contenders and this is the bounce back spot. Here, we play against road teams after allowing 4.5 or less passing ypa last game, with four or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (406) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. North Dakota St. has looked impressive in its first two games in the FBS as it has outscored its two opponents 71-7 but it played Jacksonville St., which was gutted by the portal and graduation and then destroyed Fordham so the competition was weak. And both of those were at home as it now hits the road for the first time, and as a favorite no less in its first ever Mountain West game and Air Force is not going to overlook the Bison in any form especially with this being a conference game. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent last week as it shut out Duquesne 34-0 so they were not tested but this team is ready to contend in the Mountain West Conference once again after two straight disappointing seasons. The defense was excellent last season and brings back eight starters while the rushing offense has enough back to continue to succeed at running the ball. Here, we play on teams good rushing team from last season that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc, in weeks 0-3, with 8 defensive starters returning. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) since 2022. 10* (402) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off an 8-5 season which was its first season since 2019 with a winning record and now it heads to the Sun Belt Conference expected to contend right away. The Bulldogs hung 80 points on Northwestern St. last week and while that is no competition to what they will see this week, getting that confidence in the first game is huge. Will they pull off the upset here? No but they can stay within this large number that is inflated from the LSU performance from last week. The Tigers absolutely destroyed Clemson as head coach Lane Kiffin let no distractions get in their way. That was the marquee game last weekend so it presents fading the letdown and while we cannot take anything away from them in that impressive performance, we are not going to see it again as the Tigers have a massive game at Ole Miss next week so they will not be showing much more. Here, we play on teams after allowing 2.75 or less yppl in their previous game, with five or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 29-8  ATS (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (393) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. With the exception of Syracuse winning 66-3 over New Hampshire last week, this is a solid spot for the Orange. It was an FCS opponent and with most every FCS team getting blown out in Week One, there is no overreaction to that win and the line is definitely saying that. Syracuse is expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC as it is coming off a 3-9 season but this could be a team that dominates on offense similar to how it did in 2024 when it was 10-3 behind Kyle McCord as Steve Angeli is back after getting injured last season and missed most of the season. California got blown out by UCLA and now heads to the east coast for its conference opener. The offense did some good things but certainly not enough ad the biggest concern for California off that loss is the rushing defense as it allowed 277 yards on 32 carries (8.7 ypc). Here, we play on home teams in the first two weeks of the season off a home win by 28 points or more after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. One of the more misleading finals from last week came from the Utah St./Idaho St. game as the Aggies 29-17 despite outgaining them 407-241 but losing the turnover battle 4-0 did them in. This is another situation where we can point to the overreaction and we are seeing it with this line as the Aggies are nearly four touchdown underdogs with a lot of that coming from last week. Utah St. is playing in the Pac 12 and could contend with an experienced team. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it won 24-10 despite winning the turnovers at +3. The Huskies are considered playoff contenders behind quarterback Desmond Williams but this is definitely a letdown spot coming off the big rivalry game where typically it has been the last game of the season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yppl last season, in weeks 0-3, after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 38-14 (73.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (337) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the RICE OWLS as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. Notre Dame blew out Wisconsin last week 41-13 but outgained the Badgers by only 66 total yards but won the turnover battle 2-0 which included a pick six. Notre Dame did hold Wisconsin to 67 yards rushing on 31 carries (2.2 ypc) but its own offense had just 111 yards on 32 carries (3.5 ypc) and while it will take a step down in class here, laying a big number in this matchup is not ideal. They are going to get a game where Rice is going to want to slow it to a snail pace by killing clock on the ground. Trying to cover more than six touchdowns makes that difficult as it would need everything to break their way. The Owls were expected to be a much improved team last season under first years head coach Scott Abbel but his implementation of the triple option never took because of lack of the right personnel but that could change this season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg last season, in weeks 0-3, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. This situation is 84-46 ATS (64.6 percent) since 2017. 10* (359) Rice Owls

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Week Two is always overreaction week in College Football and this is where we can find some of the best spots and take advantage of overreaction lines. In this case, we are not really seeing an overreaction line but a line that has not moved despite what happened last week and the fact 95 percent of the money is on Oklahoma. Michigan should be 0-1 but despite the win, the Wolverines were very unimpressive throughout the entire game which quarterback Bryce Underwood at the top of that list. Now he faces a legit defense that came into the season with the No. 3 Defensive Line and No. 4 Linebackers and is coming off a shutout over UTEP while allowing just 198 yards. This is the spot to take Michigan as already no one is one them and they will not be come gametime either as the Sooners will be heavily bet at the short number. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, who lost their last two games last season and had a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Saturday Early Dominator. Last week was filled with blowouts and while that will temper down as the season progresses, we see another one here. We took Alabama last week with the thought that it needed a statement win and even though it was just East Carolina, the Tide needed to come out strong. They did and we feel the same for Virginia Tech and while it won 73-3 last week against VMI, the Hokies will be out to do it again, this time against an FBS team and one that it lost to by 19 points last season. New head coach will be coaching with a chip on his shoulder after getting axed last season and he has already brought in a new culture. VMI is no good but Virginia Tech looked the part from years ago and he will not be letting up. Old Dominion also rolled last week against Norfolk St. but it was only by 21 points and the Monarchs only won the yards by 99 total. Here, we play on teams after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing 3.75 yards or less yppl, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Missouri and Kansas are coming off season opening blowout wins and they meet for the 122nd edition of The Border War. Starting in 2007, it was held at Arrowhead Stadium and the rivalry then fizzled away in 2012 until last year when Missouri won 42-31 and now they are in Lawrence playing each other for the first time since 2005. As for the Kansas offense, it welcomed back offense coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left for Penn St. for two seasons and his return should ignite the unit and we saw that in Game One albeit against an FCS opponent. The Missouri defense will be challenged on the road as the Tigers brought back only two starters from last season. The Jayhawks have been pegged as a six-win team this season and we expect them to get it done at home in their FBS opener after closing last season with three losses and ultimately missing out on a bowl game. Here, we play against nonconference Power 4 road teams that had a winning percentage between .600 and .800 last season playing a team that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in weeks 0-3. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Prime Attraction. The slow start to the season stalled the Mets as they have been playing good, going 21-12 since August 4 which is the second best record in baseball over that stretch. Nolan McLean has had an outstanding season with a 3.08 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 28 starts and while it might be called a waste, it is far from a waste as this experience and growth is massive. He has a 2.49 ERA in 13 road outings and over his last 10 starts, he has a 1.94 ERA which includes nine quality starts. The Yankees are in the Wild Card and at this point, it is about getting healthy. Carlos Rodon could be an important piece come playoff time and he has been solid since back from injury after missing almost missing two months but they are not going to stretch him. 10* (975) New York Mets

This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Rangers are right there in the American League West as they are 2.5 games behind the Astros and they still have the Wild Card to fall back on. Jacob deGrom has had a disappointing season by his standards as he has a 3.96 ERA but that can be attributed to only a handful of below average starts of late. He comes in as the underdog because of what he has done on the road and it has not been good but he faces a team he has dominated and this is a game where he continues to step up. Seattle has slowly fallen back in the American League Wild Card race as it is six games out and it turns to Logan Gilbert who is having a good season as well but not as dominant as expected. He has a 4.45 ERA at home in 16 outings after posting a 2.24 ERA in 13 starts at home last season. 10* (901) Texas Rangers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Wednesday Kickoff Winner. The season opener is a rematch of the Super Bowl from last season, won by Seattle 29-13, marking only the third time in NFL history that there is a rematch of the Super Bowl in Week One. There have been 11 Super Bowl rematches in history with the champion going 8-3 in those games. The Seahawks start their title defense at home while laying a shorter number than what they were favored by last February so we are catching value. The Patriots are coming off an unexpected run to the Super Bowl after going 14-3 and dethroning the Bills in the AFC East and coming even close to that is unlikely. They played one of the easiest schedules last season and one big reason for their success was the fact they went 9-0 on the road which is the best in NFL history so they will regress when leaving home. Eight of those 14 regular season wins were by one possession so they were lucky in that regard while also being fortunate with injuries, finishing with the sixth fewest adjusted games to injury. Under head coach Mike McDonald, Seattle is 21-2 as a favorite. 10* (452) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Prime Attraction. We have a great pitching matchup featuring two teams vying for the postseason as Houston leads the American League West by two games while the Phillies lead the National League Wild Card. Hunter Brown gets the ball to make start No. 17 and he comes in with a 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and those decrease to 2.67 and 1.13 respectively on the road in six outings. He is pitching to a 3.48 xERA which is not far off from that of Cristopher Sanchez who is pitching to a 3.42 xERA. He has the better top line numbers which is factoring into the line as is the fact he is pitching at home and he has been nearly unbeatable at home with the Phillies going 14-3 in his 17 home outings. 10* (971) Houston Astros

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our Divisional Game of the Month. Minnesota has lost two straight games and are 4.5 games out of the final spot in the American League Wild Card needing to pass four teams. We go contrarian with Dean Kreamer who is coming off a pair of poor outings including one against Detroit last time out. The Tigers are all but done as they made a run but now sit 6.5 games back in the playoff chase and turn to Drew Anderson who has been very consistent with a 3.73 ERA but does not get much run support and the Tigers are just 3-5 in his eight starts including 1-3 at home. 10* (913) Minnesota Twins

This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Prime Attraction. Washington had won five of six games prior to a pair of losses including a 5-3 defeat last night and we will back the Nationals in a great spot at an overadjusted number. Cade Cavalli has had an outstanding season as he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 29 starts including a 2.94 ERA and 1.19 ERA in 13 road outings. The Nationals are 8-5 in those 13 games which adds additional value. The Dodgers are coasting along and basically just prepping for the postseason and despite being 27 games over .500, they are -24 units in profit including 14 games over and -18.9 units at home. Tyler Glasnow is coming off a pair of solid starts after missing three and a half months and while he is clearly elite, his 4.08 ERA at home makes him on alert. 10* (961) Washington Nationals

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic has not had a winning season since 2019 when it went 11-3 (not counting the 5-4 COVID season) and signs are pointing up in Boca Raton in the second year for head coach Zach Kittley. The Owls were 4-8 last season with seven of those losses by double digits so they were not competitive and the difference being in or not in games was the fact they were -21 in turnover margin which was easily the worst in the country. They gave it up 29 times and while 17 of those were interceptions from quarterback Caden Veltkamp, he injured his shoulder early in the season and he was limited while trying to do too much. He still set the school record for total offense which followed up being named the CUSA Offensive Player of the Year the previous season so he can produce when healthy and that he is at this point. Florida will be a popular play this season as a bounce back team, largely in part due to the Gators hiring Jon Sumrall who had successful stints at Tulane and Troy. They bring back a lot and hit the portal hard and come into the season with the #42 ranked team in experience (Florida Atlantic is #14) but there is no experience at quarterback as a pair of backups last season are competing for the starting job. This team will be on every Most Improved List but laying this number? No thanks. 10* (175) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. We are very high on Auburn this season and this game will set the tone. It is hard to believe but the Tigers have had five straight losing seasons, the last time this happened was 1946-1950 so it is rock bottom right now. Enter head coach Alex Goesh as we have a situation where a coaching change should boost the value of a team. He comes over from South Florida who turned around a program that was dug into the ground by Jeff Scott and he comes into another program that was going nowhere. While the offense has only one returning starter, several players followed Golesh including quarterback Byrum Brown along with a slew of receivers. While it was another rough season, there is value based on the record from last season and people see that to fade but six of the seven losses were by one possession with the other loss being just 10 points against Georgia. Baylor is another team that has underachieved in some recent seasons and coming off a 5-7 season, head coach Dave Aranda is firmly on the hot seat. Like Auburn, the Bears are hoping a transfer quarterback will help them turn the corner and in their case it is D.J. Lagway who comes over from Florida. He should have a better season but we are not sold and there is a brand new receiving room in place as well. This game is in Atlanta but Auburn will have the fan edge. 10* (210) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. Penn St. is a popular team to bounce back after the disappointment from last season and a main reason they are being backed to make the CFP is because the Nittany Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the country. But this is a sneaky tough game and they are still laying a massive number. While they very well may have reloaded, it could take some time for the chemistry to come together. One big concern is their defensive line as they were gutted in the trench as they lost 12 defensive linemen to the draft and the transfer portal. Marshall will surely try to take advantage of this with their expected potent run game. Marshall averaged about 197 rushing ypg last season which was No. 22 in the country and this is a recipe in controlling temp and shortening the game which is important for these big underdogs to stay within the number. Additionally, Marshall returns quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, giving the Thundering Herd some continuity heading into the season. The Marshall defense was a big reason they had a losing record last season but they are expected to be much better  While Penn St. has the much better talent simply because of who they are but this is a tough spot for the Nittany Lions especially with a brand new coaching staff and the fact they are No. 126 in experience. 10* (163) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. If any team needs a statement win in its season opener, it is Alabama as the natives are getting restless, fans and boosters alike, now that the Crimson Tide have not been to a National Championship game since 2021. They were hit in the face by Indiana 35-3, their worst loss in 28 years, to close out last season and that has been on the mind of everyone that is back this season and they need a blowout win as a team to get some swagger back. They are the No. 13 team in Experience Rankings which is a big strength this early in the season. On paper, the Tide have huge advantages all over the place especially on the defensive side when going against the East Carolina offense. They have five starters back with another two added from elsewhere and overall they have 61 percent of their production back. They face an East Carolina offense that was gutted as they have only one starter back from last season and that is a slot that made only one start. New offensive coordinator Jordan Davis arrives from North Texas, so ECU is installing a new system while replacing much of its production. The Pirates do have considerably more upside than the raw amount of returning production suggests but this will take shape last in the season when they have played a few games and will have their players into the systems heading into AAC play. 10* (182) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the ATHLETICS for our MLB Prime Attraction. The Athletics have nothing more to do than to play spoiler and finish the final month of the season strong and build for next year. The lineup is still good and J.T. Ginn, who got pushed back from his last start, has been very good this season as he has posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 24 starts and he has been just as effective on the road with a 3.63 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 13 road outings with the Athletics going a respectable 6-7 in those games and 14-10 overall. Seattle is slowly falling back in the American League Wild Card race and it turns to Logan Gilbert who is having a good season as well but not as dominant as expected. He has a 3.99 ERA at home in 15 outings after posting a 2.24 ERA in 13 starts at home last season. 10* (925) Athletics

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Toledo is getting too much respect here. The Rockets are coming off an 8-5 season and have not had a losing season since 2009 but it is a complete rebuild. Mike Jacobs, who won two straight SoCon championships with Mercer after winning a South Atlantic Conference title at Lenoir-Rhyne, takes over as head coach after Jason Candle left for Connecticut and he took several top offensive stars with him to Storrs as quarterback Kalieb Osborne, running back Kenji Christian, six wide receivers, and four offensive linemen are gone. The defense is in just as bad of shape as all nine defenders who were All-MAC selections have departed and overall, plenty of the missing pieces are coming from FCS Mercer. Michigan St. has had four straight losing seasons and also has a new head coach in Pat Fitxgerald who will look to get this program back to respectability. The Spartans defense can count on its returning talent and they are getting a bunch of good transfers coming in to go along with a decent base of players in a Fitzgerald system. The defense had only nine takeaways last season which was bottom ten in the country. The offense will be fine with quarterback Alessio Milivojevic who is back after taking over late in the season and was successful with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Great favorite value with the Sprtans. 10* (150) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Prime Attraction. Michael Wacha remains one of the quietest and most consistent pitchers over the last month and a half as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and has a 3.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season across 27 starts following a gem against Cleveland where he tossed eight shutout innings. He has a 3.04 ERA at home in 12 starts. Sandy Alcantara is coming off a poor outing at Washington which raised his ERA to 4.22 on the road while pitching to a 4.66 xERA in 16 road outings. He has been streaky all season and he could be getting fatigued after all of the time missed as his hits allowed has been on the rise while his strikeout numbers have been declining. The Marlins are still in the Wild Card picture and those are some of the teams we like to go against late as their lines tend to be inflated. 10* (968) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the AKRON ZIPS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Wake Forest won nine games last season under first year head coach Jake Dickert and it was fortunate with four one possession wins. The Demon Deacons have a lot to replace on offense especially in the run game as leading rusher Demond Claiborne is gone along with four offensive linemen and they went 7-1 last season when they ran for 130 or more yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford is also gone and is being replaced by North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez and it is far from an upgrade. They will have to rely on their defense most likely once again. While it is a fade of Wake Forest, it is also a play on Akron that went 5-7 last season with nothing to play for as they were ineligible for a bowl game due to APR restrictions so head coach Joe Moorhead got the best out of his Zips squad and this could be his best team yet. The offense improved slightly from 2024 and now they have seven starters back but while one of those is not quarterback Ben Finley, they will turn to Reece Poffenbarger who has not started but sat behind Cam Ward at Miami and Drew Mestemaker at North Texas. Akron has not fared well against P4 teams at it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 but those losses were Auburn, Ohio St. twice, Michigan St., Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina and Nebraska and this Wake Forest edition is not in that grouping. 10* (143) Akron Zips

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our Interleague Game of the Month. Tomoyuki Sugano is not having a great season in his first in Colorado but he is providing enough for the Rockies to get their wins as they are 14-10 in his 24 starts while winning 11.5 units and this includes a 7-5 record at home. He has been better at home than on the road and he will have a little added juice as he faces his former team for the first time. Trevor Rogers counters for Baltimore and he has turned his season around after a very slow start but is coming off a very poor outing. He has allowed six of his 16 home runs in his last five starts and was lit up in his only Coors Field appearance. Rogers is 5-12 in September games including 1-9 on the road showing that he has worn down late in the season.  10* (926) Colorado Rockies

This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Double Play. The Diamondbacks have moved ahead of the Padres for the third Wild Card Spot in the National League. Eduardo Rodriguez came into the season with high expectations as he reshaped his mind and body in the offseason and it has paid off as he has a 2.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 27 starts and that ERA is third best in the National League. He has been exceptional at home with a 2.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts with the Diamondbacks going 11-4 in those games. Arizona is 12-2 when he is on the mound as an underdog. He has been a road warrior this season hence the price as he is 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and we go contrarian here with the value and with the Phillies going 12-2 in his 14 road starts. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Double Play. The Athletics have nothing more to do than to play spoiler and finish the final month of the season strong and build for next year. The lineup is still good and J.T. Ginn has been very good this season as he has posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 24 starts and he has been just as effective on the road with a 3.63 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 13 road outings with the Athletics going a respectable 6-7 in those games and 14-10 overall. Texas is two games out of the Wild Card in the American League and the Rangers will be overpriced based on the fact they have a lot to play for. Mackenzie Gore has a 4.40 ERA and a.28 WHIP in 28 starts this season and while he has been better at home with a sub-3.00 ERA, he has been paying the price. 10* (969) Athletics

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our Divisional Game of the Month. Kyle Harrison has proven us wrong at times this season but he is showing to be the real deal. In his last start on Tuesday, he allowed one run on six hits while walking one and striking out five over five innings against the Mets. Overall, he has a 3.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 21 starts and while his work on the road is not as good as it is at home, his overall work takes precedence as the former was because of two bad starts against the Padres and Athletics. The Cubs turn to Clay Holmes who has turned a corner after a rough opener in his first outing in Chicago as he has posted a 2.02 ERA over his last three starts. He now faces the best offense he has seen since coming to Chicago and going back he is 3-8 against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more rpg. 10* (907) Milwaukee Brewers

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Double Play. Unfortunately the Pirates have fallen 6.5 games back in the National League Wild Card with time running out while the Cardinals are 4.5 games back with this being a big game with a series at the Dodgers on deck. Braxton Ashcraft comes in as the road favorite and we go contrarian in a situation that he has never lost as the Pirates have never lost in his seven road starts when he is the chalk. He brings in a 3.70 ERA in 14 road starts which is certainly solid but far from dominant and there is another contrarian aspect of it on the other side. Matthew Liberatore has a 7.97 ERA in his past four starts so he will not be a popular play with the Cardinals being 0-4 in those four games. 10* (956) St. Louis Cardinals

This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Double Play. I love Max Scherzer but he really has had some struggles this season as shown by his 1-7 record and 7.02 ERA. It has been bad luck and limited bats behind him as he is pitching to a 4.80 xERA which is nothing special but the differential is massive. Most importantly, he is pitching his best of the season as his time off  after April has been beneficial. He had one bad start in Tampa Bay this month but has a 2.53 ERA in his other four August starts. Part of the number is Logan Gilbert who is having another consistent season with his 3.36 ERA, his fifth straight season with a sub 3.75 ERA, and his 20.0% K:BB% but Toronto does not strike out as they are the third best team in K Rate. 10* (962) Toronto Blue Jays

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Opening Enforcer. We have seen the UNLV line on the move as this number opened at 3 and moved the most in late July and has slightly risen again. The season UNLV had last year is a big reason and the Rebels are favored to win the Mountain West Conference but bring back only seven starters total and have a new quarterback in Jackson Arnold who has underachieved in his two previous stops. He will be fine here based on the competition he will be facing is a lot weaker but this is a tough matchup as he is prone to getting sacked and will face a heavy pressure defense. Memphis comes in with a new head coach and a relatively overworked roster but the Tigers look to be in good shape. Charles Huff takes over after turning around programs at Marshall and Southern Mississippi with the latter being the most recent and very impressive as he turned a 1-11 team into a 7-6 bowl team last season. Now he heads to Memphis and a program with the highest NIL money to spend in the Group of 6 thanks to $25 million from FedEx alone. He brought 12 important players with him from Southern Mississippi to provide instant chemistry and hired two awesome coordinators. Great value in this spot as we have this line UNLV -1.2. 10* (315) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Prime Attraction. The Phillies took the opener of this series last night 5-3 to make it two straight wins and they now are one game behind the Cubs for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. Cristopher Sanchez is coming off a rare poor home start as he allowed four runs in 6.2 innings and he now hits the road where he has been inconsistent. He has a 4.07 ERA and pitching to a 5.31 xERA on the highway and while Philadelphia is 14-2 in his 16 home starts, they are just 6-5 in his 11 road outings. In his career, the Phillies are 2-2 in his four road starts when favored by -200 or higher. Ryan Johnson is not having a good season but he is better at home and the Angels are a respectable 3-3 in his six home starts. Most important, he is tossing his best baseball right now as he has a 1.69 ERA in four August starts across 21.1 innings. 10* (934) Los Angeles Angels

This is a play on the NORTH DAKOTA ST. BISON for our CFB Game of the Month. North Dakota St. comes in as a significant favorite in its first ever FBS game but this isn’t just any new FBS team and we have this number at 13.7. The Bison have ten FCS national titles in the last 15 seasons and won five D-II national championships so they have a winning pedigree and come in as a near co-favorite to win the Mountain West Conference at +300 with a win total of 8.5. Offensively last season, they were among the best in the nation on third downs and controlled the time of possession battle in every game with the exception of the playoff loss to Illinois St. They have to break in a new quarterback in Nathan Hayes but he has plenty of experience in the system as a backup as he logged a lot of time and he has the tools and mobility. They were No. 1 in the country in total defense and scoring defense and bring a ton back. There isn’t a huge difference as Jacksonville St. is just three years removed from the FCS level and while it has found great success with three nine-win seasons, it is a rebuilding year for the Gamecocks and they could not have asked for a worse scenario than what they will be going into. The running game was outstanding but lost a lot and the defense will be tested. 10* (320) North Dakota St. Bison

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Double Play. Michael Wacha has been one of the quietest and most consistent pitchers over the last month and a half as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and has a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the season across 26 starts and this has been the case over his last five years. His home and road splits are in line and he has allowed just three runs in 14 innings against Cleveland. Tanner Bibee has been equally consistent with his 3.97 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and is overpriced based on the Cleveland record and recent run but he still has an offense behind him that is second worst in baseball. 10* (965) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Double Play. We are totally going against the betting public here with Tarik Skubal coming back to Detroit for a juiced up stat. He has not been great since going to Los Angeles with a 3.38 ERA which is the highest from his last four seasons in Detroit and while the fans will appreciate him because it was a trade, this is a massive Tigers spot at great value with Drew Anderson who made a couple spot starts around his bullpen work early in the season and has been inserted into the rotation and has been solid. He has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his six outings and if he doesn’t allow the long ball, his value here is outstanding. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers

This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Prime Attraction. Spencer Arrighetti was activated last week and made his Blue Jays debut and it did not go well as he came out of the bullpen in a bulk relief role and he went 3.1 innings and allowed three runs on three hits but it was against the Yankees and he was forced to go in with baserunners on in the first inning so it was a tough spot. He now will be making a traditional start and it will be his home debut in Toronto and while he has not pitched here, he feeds off the home crowd as he posted a 3.05 ERA at home with Houston while pitching to a 2.55 xERA. Noah Cameron tossed one of the best starts in baseball two outings back as he tossed a complete game one hit shutout against the Angels and he followed that up with five shutout innings against Detroit so we go contrarian while knowing the Royals are 2-9 in his 11 road starts. 10* (912) Toronto Blue Jays

This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Big League Baller. Texas and Houston remain tight for the lead in the American League West and we will back Mackenzie Gore despite his top line poor road numbers. He has a 5.42 ERA in 15 road starts but that is skewed with four bad outings as the other 11 have been good and he is pitching to a 4.47 xERA on the road is certainly not great but shows he has been better. The White Sox are trying to hold off the Guardians in the American League Central and part of the turnaround season has been due to Sean Burka who comes in as the favorite with his 3.41 ERA in 13 home starts but it has not translated to wins in Chicago as the White Sox are 5-8 in those games. 10* (971) Texas Rangers

This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. Philadelphia is in the second Wild Card spot in the National League and hopes to get another quality start from Jesus Luzardo who had a three-game quality outing streak snapped against St. Louis. He has been a road warrior this season hence the price as he is 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and we go contrarian here with the value and with the Phillies going 11-2 in his 13 road starts. Seattle is three games out of the Wild Card in the American League and turn to Bryan Woo and his numbers are even better at home than Luzardo on the road as he is 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 10 starts with Seattle going 8-2. 10* (976) Seattle Mariners

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Walbert Urena’s advanced pitch metrics have established him as one of the top rookie arms in the American League thanks to his sinker that generates heavy groundball rates and clocks up to 101 mph but his 90.5 mph change-up features 17 inches of horizontal arm-side run and it ranked as one of the absolute best singular pitches in baseball this season. He has a 2.80 ERA overall and that drops to 2.27 to go with a 1.84 xERA at home across 67.1 innings over 12 starts with the Angels going 8-4. Gavin Williams is having a solid season with a 3.72 ERA but has been far from dominant. That ERA increases to 4.25 on the road in 12 starts with Cleveland going 6-6 in those games and is now laying his second biggest number of the season on the road so he is overvalued in this one. 10* (922) Los Angeles Angels

This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. This line is skewed in that it is based on a heathy and full strength Tyler Glasnow but that is not the case. He is healthy but is not at full strength as the Dodgers are going to bring him along slowly and have him go all out come playoff time. He has not pitched since May 6, when lower back spasms forced him out of a start against the Astros and after suffering multiple setbacks he was eventually put on the 60-day IL. He made three starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City and one for Single-A Ontario, completely dominating lower-level hitters. Bryce Elder had a bad start against the Mets two games back and with the exception of that, he is back to pitching like he was early in the season as in his last six starts and taking the New York game out, he has a 1.80 ERA in the other five outings. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves

This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. We went against Kyle Harrison in his last start and it ended up being the worst call of the season in a 22-0 loss but we will fade him again now on the road. He tossed five shutout innings against the Mariners in that game but we see regression coming. He was nearly untouchable through his first start in June as he posted a 1.57 ERA through his first 11 starts but he has been all over the place since then as he has a 4.64 over his last nine starts across 41 innings while missing a month due to left forearm extensor tendinopathy. Zac Thornton opened his rookie season by allowing four runs in 4.1 innings against the Nationals and in his eight starts since then, he has posted a 2.54 ERA across 46 innings. This is a game where the number is based on records and not the arms on the hill. 10* (904) New York Mets

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our National League Game of the Month. Braxton Ashcraft has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.68 ERA and a 3.36 xERA which is second among the Pirates starters only behind Paul Skenes but not far off his 3.17 xERA. Most importantly, he is winning and the Pirates are winning as they are 17-8 in his 25 starts including 9-4 in his 13 road starts, accounting for over 30 percent of their 29 road wins. Robbie Ray has made three starts since being dealt to San Diego with only one of those being a good one and that was last time out at New York against the Mets. His other two starts were at home and he allowed six runs in nine innings while striking out six and walking eight. The walks have been an issue all season as he has issued 68 in 137.2 innings and his 4.52 BB/9 is No. 152 out of 164 starters that have gone at least 50 innings. 10* (955) Pittsburgh Pirates