| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23-17 | Calgary -3 v. Ottawa | Top | 31-31 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 52 m | Show |
|
We are not much into laying points on the road but catching a small number is ideal to go along with the situation that could not be better. When we last saw Calgary and Ottawa, it was back on November 27 where they were fighting for the Grey Cup that was eventually won in overtime by the RedBlacks. The Stampeders went into that game as 9.5-point favorites but went home with a shocking defeat which was their second since Week One, a record of 16-1-1 over that stretch. They have won 29 games over the past two seasons and last year they basically stomped all over everyone until their stunning Grey Cup loss and now they come into the season with revenge right out of the gate. Calgary has little room to improve because it has been so good over the last few years but it will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after no winning the championship the last two seasons despite a 29-6-1 record. Ottawa has made quick work of the franchise since coming back to the CFL in 2014 where it went just 2-16. The RedBlacks went 12-6 the following season and went to the Grey Cup in just its second season because losing to Edmonton. They were able to push forward last season and gain the championship despite posting an 8-9-1 regular season record. Give them credit for what they accomplished but they certainly catch Calgary at the wrong time and actually face them again next week so a 0-2 start is more likely than not. Calgary was tops in the CFL in both offense and defense last season and while it did lose some pieces on both sides, it is nearly enough to bring this team down. Going back, the RedBlacks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games while the Stampeders are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as road favorites of three of fewer points. Instant revenge on Friday. 10* (353) Calgary Stampeders |
|||||||
| 10-10-16 | Edmonton -3 v. Montreal | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
|
This could very well be letdown time for Montreal as it snapped a four-game losing streak last week against rival Toronto as it played with a newfound energy in the first game for new head coach Jacques Chapdelaine. It will be touch to keep that going against a much better opponent and home field has not helped much as the Alouettes are just 2-5 at home. Edmonton has proven they can get it done through the air and on the ground, giving the Alouette defense a tough task on Monday afternoon. The CFL passing leader Mike Reilly and two top receiving yardage producers in Adarius Bowman and Derel Walker. The defense is playing better as well so overall the Eskimos are in good shape to make the playoffs. This is the first of three straight road games which makes it a vital one. The Eskimos have won two straight games and could be peaking at the right time in trying to defend the Grey Cup Championship. Montreal is in last place in the East Division and that is nothing to be proud of this season as it is the weaker of the two by far. The West has won 10 straight games against East Division opponents and is 15-8-1 overall this season. The Alouettes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win while the Eskimos are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 16. The Eskimos have covered five straight in this series while Montreal is 0-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. 10* (481) Edmonton Eskimos |
|||||||
| 09-24-16 | Winnipeg +10 v. Calgary | Top | 34-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
|
The two hottest teams in the CFL square off on Saturday as Winnipeg heads to Calgary in a pivotal West Division matchup. The Blue Bombers won their seventh straight game last week as they rolled over Toronto and only one of those seven wins has been by less than a touchdown. Considering Winnipeg started the season 1-4, it has been a huge turnaround and has been keyed by a five-game winning streak on the road. The defense has been outstanding as after allowing 27 ppg in those first five games, the Blue Bombers have allowed just 19 ppg during their winning streak. Calgary meanwhile has not lost a game since opening week as it is on a 10-0-1 run and has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league. The Stampeders have covered their last seven games which is giving us solid value the other way. They were favored by just one more point in the last meeting that took place here but Winnipeg is a different team now that is playing with great confidence. The change at quarterback to Matt Nichols has made the offense much more efficient and they will be getting running back Andrew Harris back for the game today after a six-game stint on the IR. Winnipeg is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season on the road as a single-digit underdog. 10* (495) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
|||||||
| 08-28-16 | Hamilton v. Calgary -4 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
|
Calgary is coming off a blowout victory against British Columbia last weekend to build a 1.5-game lead in the West Division but that has dropped back to one game following the Lions upset win over Ottawa on Thursday. The Stampeders have won five straight games and have been playing good enough all season that they could be undefeated as they tied with Ottawa while the lone defeat came against the Lions by just two points. Calgary has had a strong defense year in and year out and this season is no exception as it is allowing a league-low 20.1 ppg. With the Ottawa loss, Hamilton has fallen into a tie for first place in the East Division with the RedBlacks and the Argonauts, all sitting at 4-4. The Tiger Cats snapped a two-game skid with a 53-7 win over Saskatchewan last week but most teams have been giving the Roughriders the business lately so not much should be read into that victory. Hamilton is not in an easy spot here considering it was coming off a four-game roadtrip prior to that and now has to jet off across country for yet another road game right before and home-and-home set with rival Toronto on deck. The Tiger Cats are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record while Calgary is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games against teams allowing 4.25 or fewer rushing ypc while going .9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams averaging 90 or fewer rushing ypg. 10* (308) Calgary Stampeders |
|||||||
| 08-25-16 | BC v. Ottawa -2 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
|
After a 3-0-1 start, Ottawa has dropped three of its last four games so while many will shy off the RedBlacks, a closer look needs to be taken. Consecutive losses to Saskatchewan and Toronto were by a combined four points and while the loss last week against Montreal was by 24 points, it was a misleading final as they were outgained by just 42 total yards but were undone by four turnovers and 13 penalties and no team can overcome those miscues. Ottawa will be out for some redemption on Thursday as it looks to snap a 0-4 ATS run. British Columbia was humbled last week as it got destroyed at home against West Division leader Calgary 37-9 and that score was not misleading. The Lions were outgained by 181 total yards and that is a tough defeat to bounce back from after a solid run prior to that. They are 3-1 on the road and have covered all four of those games however this is now the biggest test they have had on the highway thus far. On the flip side, the RedBlacks are 0-4 ATS at home so those two converging pointspread records are giving us some value in the number on Thursday. Ottawa has covered six of its last seven games against teams with a winning record while going back further, it is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 340 total ypg or fewer. With both teams coming off losses, we can expect the home field to be the difference here as Ottawa keeps it claim on first place in the East Division. 10* (302) Ottawa RedBlacks |
|||||||
| 08-19-16 | Calgary v. BC -3 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
|
We have won with British Columbia the last two weeks and we will ride the Lions once again. they returned home from a three-game roadtrip where they went 2-1 and took care of Hamilton by seven points. They blew a 16-point fourth quarter lead but scored a late touchdown to pull out the victory and remain a half-game out of first place in the CFL West Division. The team they trail is Calgary which has not lost since opening week when it came here and lost to the Lions by two points. The Stampeders got their revenge a month later when they defeated British Columbia by three points in overtime. That loss still strings for the Lions as they blew a 15-point lead late in the fourth quarter and closed the game by getting outscored 18-0. Revenge certainly comes into play on that factor alone. The Lions offense will be tested by a strong Calgary defense but quarterback Jonathon Jennings has been spectacular. He threw for 306 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Tiger Cats and British Columbia has now scored 38 points or more in each of its last four games, averaging 41.0 ppg over that stretch. The Lions fall into two solid situations as well. First, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after five or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss where the opponent scored 38 or more points. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (124) British Columbia Lions |
|||||||
| 08-13-16 | Hamilton v. BC -2 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
|
This is a very unique scheduling matchup in the CFL as both Hamilton and British Columbia are coming off three straight road games. This gives the Lions the edge as they return home for the first time in five weeks while Hamilton remains on the highway for a fourth straight game. The road has been kind for the Tiger Cats as they are 3-1 but were blown out at Winnipeg 10 days ago by 26 points following a 3-0 start. They fell behind 34-0 at halftime so even the final score was misleading as they were undone by four turnovers. The Lions meanwhile won at Montreal going away to conclude a 2-1 roadtrip that included another blowout win at Saskatchewan and a tough overtime loss at Calgary where they blew a big second half lead. This is a good spot for them here as not only are they returning home but will be out to make up for an 11-point loss in their last home game against Toronto which was just their second home game of the season. British Columbia has outgained five of six opponents with the only exception being that game against Calgary where it was outgained by just two yards. Overall, the Lions are outgaining opponents by nearly 62 ypg. The Tiger Cats are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record while British Columbia has covered five of six games this season and are catching a shorter than expected number here at home. 10* (308) British Columbia Lions |
|||||||
| 08-04-16 | BC -2 v. Montreal | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
|
This is the third straight road game for British Columbia following a blowout win at Saskatchewan and a tough overtime loss last week in Calgary after blowing a 15-point lead to start the fourth quarter against the Stampeders. The Lions had their bye week prior to last week so they have not had to travel for three straight weeks which is a big edge. The quick turnaround, five days, between the loss to Calgary and the game in Montreal tonight could be a positive. They were outgained by just yards last week against Calgary and that was the first time this season they have been outgained. Overall, British Columbia is third in the CFL in total offense and second in total defense. Montreal snapped its three-game losing streak with a victory against Saskatchewan last week and it was a very impressive 41-3 victory but that can be considered an aberration as the offense was dreadful coming into last week and the Roughriders are currently the worst team in the league. The schedulemakers did the Alouettes no favors during this current stretch as this is the third game in 11 days for Montreal so while it does carry positive momentum forward, this has to be one tired team. British Columbia has covered six of its last seven road games while going back, the Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. 10* (123) British Columbia Lions |
|||||||
| 07-29-16 | BC v. Calgary -4 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
|
Calgary enters Week Six of the CFL season sitting in second place in the West Division with a 2-1-1 record and returns home to place just its second home game of the season. The Stampeders won at Winnipeg last week and have not lost since their season opener which happened to come at British Columbia so revenge will be in play tonight. The Lions are leading the West Division with a 3-1 record with their only blemish coming at home against Toronto three weeks ago. They are coming off a bye week which at this early stage of the season can be more detrimental than helpful especially for a team that is playing good, thus killing positive momentum. B.C. has yet to lose on the road as it is a perfect 2-0 but this will be the toughest test so far and it heads to Calgary at the wrong time. Going back to last season, the Stampeders have covered six of their last seven home games and they have dominated this series at McMahon Stadium with covers in six of the seven meetings taking place here. 10* (306) Calgary Stampeders |
|||||||
| 07-25-16 | Montreal v. Toronto -5.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
|
With Hamilton winning on Saturday at Edmonton, the visitors are now an amazing 14-4-1 through the first 19 games of the CFL season. This trend will eventually even itself out or at least come close to doing so and tonight is a good place to start. Both Montreal and Toronto have played key roles in the road dominance as in their seven games combined, the road team has gone a perfect 7-0. The Argonauts were blown out by Hamilton in their season opener before winning consecutive road games at Saskatchewan and British Columbia. They could not keep the momentum going however as they fell again at home last week against Ottawa. That game was the first in Week Four, taking place on Wednesday so they have had 12 days to prepare for Montreal. The Alouettes meanwhile won their season opener at Winnipeg before dropping consecutive home games against Ottawa and Hamilton with a bye week in-between. That makes this the first road game for Montreal in a full month which puts it in a very tough spot here and making it even worse, this is the first of three games in an 11-day stretch. Montreal is averaging a CFL-low 14 ppg and will be without slotback S.J. Green and tailback Tyrell Sutton, who are both on the injured list. Meanwhile, Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray has completed 86-of-122 passes (70.5 per cent) for 1,000 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception so he has been very solid after missing most of last season and the offenses will be the difference here. 10* (128) Toronto Argonauts |
|||||||
| 07-22-16 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +6 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
|
We are going contrarian with this play as Saskatchewan comes into this game winless while Ottawa has yet to lose and those records are dictating this line. The Roughriders are coming off a home loss against B.C. last week as they blew a 13-point second quarter lead and a 12-point third quarter lead. They were outscored 14-1 to end the game but for the second straight week, they were in a winnable position and continue to move in the right direction. The other home game this season resulted in a loss against Toronto despite Saskatchewan winning the yardage battle by 137 total yards. Mitchell Gale will get the start at quarterback for the Roughriders after Darian Durant got hurt last week and Gale was solid as he threw for 247 yards and a touchdown on 17-of-30 passing. Ottawa meanwhile is off to a 3-0-1 start showing last year was no fluke. The RedBlacks are a perfect 3-0 on the road so keeping that pace up will be difficult and there has to be a lookahead here playing a winless team with a four-game homestand upcoming and this is the final road game until September. They have helped road teams dominate the league as a whole as the visitors are an amazing 13-3-1 through the first 17 games so the home field advantages will be coming out at some point and this could be exactly where it starts in an upset. The points are in our favor nonetheless. 10* (124) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
|||||||