This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Jacksonville St. has won nine games in each of its first three seasons at the FBS level and the Gamecocks have won or shared first place in Conference USA and went to the title game both years in which they split. They are expected to contend again and sitting 3-2 overall, this includes a 1-0 start in the conference following a win over Middle Tennessee last week, a 10-point home victory. They now hit the road for the first time in the conference and come in as road favorites and they come in 0-2 on the highway but are favored based on past perception as we have this number at Kennesaw St. -2.1. Jacksonville St. is 1-3 in its history as road favorites including 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less. The Owls are 1-3 which is obviously playing into this number as well with losses to Georgia St., one of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, Tennessee and last week at Arkansas St. by just three points. They came into FBS two years ago and went 2-10 in year one but surprised many last season by going 10-4, shared the conference title and won the C-USA Championship over Jacksonville St. 19-15. That brings in road revenge but not for us as that is something that is not usually easily attainable especially knowing Kennesaw St. is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in its two years of existence. 10* (304) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Tuesday Attraction. This line is inflated as we have it at 6.7 and that number is taking the loss of Southern Miss quarterback Ethan Hampton who is out for the season into consideration as the new starter Landry Lyddy is not a step down and his numbers have been actually better. The Golden Eagles are 1-3, 0-3 against FBS teams with the losses against Auburn, Connecticut and Tulane on the road with the latter two taking place despite getting outgained by 83 yards combined. This is a young team that came into the season the third least experienced so growing pains were expected but now they have had time to work together and the one thing they need to shore up is their rushing defense but they are not facing a rushing powerhouse here. Troy is 2-2 with the lone FBS win coming against Sam Houston St. by three points where it was outgained and the Bearkats are currently power ranked a half-point below Southern Miss. The Trojans are off a loss at Utah St. which was the first win of the season for the Aggies and while this is the Sun Belt Conference opener, they could very well be partly looking ahead to West Division favorite Louisiana next week. Past history means nothing in college football but the public will be all over Troy knowing they are 5-0 straight up and ATS in the last five meetings, all wins by double digits. 10* (301) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Primetime. New Orleans hosts longtime rival Atlanta for the 20th anniversary of the return to the Superdome following the destruction of Hurricane Katrina. The hometown Saints are going to be very popular based on that and as of Sunday late morning, two-thirds of the money is on the Saints and the line has come down from the opener with early money on the Falcons. Atlanta looked like a new team with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. but we have to decipher if it was the Falcons turning a corner or if the Packers are just that bad. It’s a little bit one both but in this matchup, the Falcons do have the better roster at the playmaker spots and their defense is actually playing exceptional as they are ranked No. 3 in Defensive Success Rate and No. 3 in both Dropback and Rushing Success Rate. Offensively, this is a game where Bijan Robinson could go off again as the Saints come in ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Success Rate and tied for last place in Rushing Success Rate. This season, teams with a rest advantage are 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS and here, we play on teams outrushing their opponents by 60 or more ypg, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (279) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We have a future on Detroit with their total wins at 10.5 and while at 2-1, it has not been a good 2-1 as 0-3 was a definite possibility with the two wins coming down to the wire. The Lions have one of the best offensive rosters in the league but still have a suspect offensive line and it is the other side which has been the real concern. Detroit is No. 31 in EPA/Play with both passing and rushing being near the bottom of the list and now they are back on the road where they will be heavily bet based on their road success off a home game but those past results were with better teams. Carolina blew a big one last week against Cleveland to fall to 1-2 and the home crowd helps in a rare primetime spot. This team has been sneaky good coming off a loss as the Panthers are currently on a 12-0 run off a straight up loss. Here, we play against teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (278) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the buy low/sell high game of the day with the latter not really being a sell high spot because it is only based on record. The Vikings are 3-0 straight up and against the number and are laying double digits only because of the public perception of the opponent. This offense is atrocious and while some can be blamed on the rotating quarterbacks, it revolves around the whole unit. The Vikings are the first team to start 3-0 with under 250 total yards in each game since the 1957 Browns and they are at the bottom of every major offensive metric category this season. The Dolphins are competing for the worst team in the NFL so this is a hold your nose play like last week and they were covering the entire game until a late penalty changed momentum and a turnover did them in but we are right back on them as ugly dogs playing an overpriced team. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 46-21 ATS (68.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (269) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is a play We played against the Bills last Sunday and they somehow not only won, but covered the touchdown margin against the Chargers in what was a 3% win probability prior to that. They have opened the season 3-0 both straight up and against the number and are in another fade spot against a team no one wants to be behind. The Buffalo offense was not very efficient last week and a bounce back can be expected but they will be facing a good defense that has allowed only 17 ppg, 278 ypg and 5.0 yppl and while struggle is not the right term, they will be tested. The Patriots have been awful and Drake Maye has been on an even worse level which makes this the ideal spot to back him and New England as they face one of the worst defenses in the league so this is the spot to get right. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (253) New England Patriots

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. To no surprise, Houston is 0-3 once again as the Texans have been one of the slowest starting teams in recent years and this time around, the offense needs a boost. This is the spot for that to happen as Dallas possesses one of the worst defenses in the NFL as it sits near the bottom of the league in ypc, ypa and yppl while allowing 387 ypg and 27 ppg. So far, 29 different players have taken at least one defensive snap for the Cowboys and while the experience might be beneficial, it shows limited top line talent. The Texans offense gets a boost with the return of Nico Collins which comes after C.J. Stroud off a horrible game. Dallas is 1-2 following a loss against Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro and that travel could have an adverse effect on the Cowboys and knowing they have a short week with Tampa Bay on Thursday. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Bears and Case Keenum came through for us Monday night with the whole world to see and they are now again trending high even with Caleb Williams still out. Keenum had his time to shine but will go back to backup as Tyson Bagent will get the call and while we totally respect what head coach Ben Johnson will bring to the table, this is a tough spot for Chicago coming off that win and a divisional game with Green Bay on deck. It will be tough for the offense to replicate what it did against a much better defense. The Jets are 1-2 with both losses coming in games they could have won and you can see the confidence from this team that was not evident last season. The defense as mentioned is No. 7 in Rushing EPA and on the other side, Geno Smith can continue his success against a bad defense. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 43-19 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (255) New York Jets

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Cincinnati won for us last week at home against Kansas St. as an underdog as the Bearcats were geeked up for that one following their big comeback against Miami Ohio and that home game being at night in a massive revenge spot and it resulted in another come-from-behind win. Now comes the letdown following two exciting wins by five points each to improve to 4-0 after opening with a pair of blowout wins over Boston College and Western Carolina. Cincinnati now makes the west coast trip for its first true road game of the season. Arizona is 3-1 with the loss coming at BYU just 11 points no thanks to a pick six so it was a quality loss but the Wildcats are already behind the eight ball in the Big 12 Conference, sitting at 0-1 so now they have to take care of business at home. Arizona is 0-4 ATS so there is value in a buy low spot in what is a great situation at home. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992. 10* (180) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. USC got blitzed at home against Oregon despite Ducks quarterback Dante Moore getting knocked out which evidently fired them up. The Trojans need to rebound as this is a statement game after that bad look situation and the fact they have to travel to Penn St. next week and we all know how they struggle in the Eastern Time Zone. The season is far from over but a loss here and they could be cooked. This is a number they can easily cover following a loss. Washington was expected to make some noise in the Big Ten Conference but it has been far from impressive. The Huskies opened with the Apple Cup and played a closer than expected game and the other FBS games resulted in a two-point win over Utah St., which got its first win just last week, and a three-point loss to Minnesota at home and this marks their first road game. This looks like a team not into playing. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (182) USC Trojans

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We played Marshall in its season opener and it forgot to get off the bus as it was outgained 487-447 but has since won three straight games, albeit unimpressively as they came by a combined nine points but wins are wins. We are back on the Thundering Herd here in their Sun Belt Conference opener and this team was picked to contend in the East Division with four other teams including this week’s opponent. Despite the average results, the offense is playing well with the exception of the Penn St. game as quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is leading the team efficiently with excellent numbers. James Madison is 4-0 both straight up and ATS and the latter is helping up with this number which is overinflated. The Dukes are part of that contending group as this is a really good team but to be favored by this many points is a bit much. They have hardly faced an offense with a pulse and now that changes. Here, we play on road teams allowing 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 280 to 330 ypg. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (147) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Main Attraction. Florida took care of business for us last week as it rolled over Mississippi which was in a letdown spot after the Rebels were coming off the LSU Win but now the Gators find themselves in a similar spot. They have looked great thus far and it has been a huge turnaround from their 4-8 record from last season as they have outgained opponents by over 180 ypg and outscoring them by over 30 ppg but now they head into a brutal spot with the spotlight on them and the line being inflated because of it. Missouri opened the season 3-0 but suffered its first loss last week at resurgent Mississippi St. as the defense got torched for 499 total yards. The Tigers had a very unimpressive win over Troy prior to that as they were outgained 323-230 as big favorites but now they are in a role they flourish in as they are 6-0 ATS under head coach Eli Drinkwitz as home underdogs of six or less. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (196) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our MAC Game of the Month. Massachusetts has been a major surprise this season as it is 4-0 with those four wins already half of their wins since 2019 when they went a combined 8-68. The Minutemen are on everyone’s radar now and with that comes inflating lines and that is the case here. Two of the four wins were against FCS teams, another against Sacramento St., arguably the worst FBS team in the country and in its first year up from the FCS and Rutgers. The emergence of quarterback Pop Watson is making the rounds and now everyone is lining up at the betting window. Eastern Michigan is no powerhouse but we don’t need the win and it comes in 2-3 with the wins coming against the already mentioned Sacramento St. and an FCS team with a one possession loss against San Jose St. teams and the other against two Wisconsin and Michigan St. This is the buy low/sell high spot. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (129) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Central Michigan got slaughtered last weekend against Miami 52-3 as it failed to cover the 41.5 points but that was a pay day only and now the real season starts. The Chippewas have a chance to contend after a 7-6 season including 5-3 in the MAC despite being -17 in turnovers and now they open the slate as a short favorite against one of the notoriously worst teams in the conference. They are back home where they have allowed 10 ppg in two games and are in position to keep that defense going. Akron had won four and five games respectively the last two seasons and looked like it may be on the rise but it has opened 1-3 and is already dealing with some significant injuries. Akron has averaged just 8.8 yards per reception this season 4th-worst among FBS Offenses so they have not been able to create explosive plays, while defensively they apply no pressure as they are averaging only one sack per 62.5 pass attempts, worst in the country. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (164) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Syracuse is off to a disappointing 1-2 start and it is even more disappointing considering both of those losses were winnable and coming off a bye week is a big edge to regroup. The Orange lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. They then lost to Pittsburgh as they were outgained by only 21 yards but simply failed to execute while untimely turnovers again. Now they take a step down in class as Connecticut comes in 2-2 but this is a team that has a bad matchup with its horrible defense. The loss of head coach Jim Mora is showing but we knew that coming in as the roster got gutted with only one starter having come back. Here, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in three straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (113) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. With Louisville losing last week against Wake Forest, the winner of this game could make a run at the ACC Championship and we are backing the home team in what is going to be an intense environment. The Hokies are 4-0 that includes a pair of wins at Maryland and Boston College the last two weeks and while those teams are not good, winning those on the road is still impressive for a team that could not do it that much recently. Head coach James Franklin revamped the defense and it is outstanding, allowing just 16 ppg and while they face a true test here, being at home surely helps. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer does not get the same amount of recognition as Pittsburgh’s Mason Heintschel but he has been great with a 74.3 completion percentage while posting an 8-0 TD/INT Ration. The Panthers come in with a very similar resume so these teams are even on paper but this is now their first road game of the season. Bettors are discounting the close BC win due to the weather and believe on a neutral field the Hokies are very slightly better. Here, we play on home teams coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (108) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our AAC Game of the Month. Tulsa suffered its first loss of the season as it fell at Arkansas 34-6 as it was simply outclassed against a team from the SEC even though it was a bad Razorbacks team. The Golden Hurricane could do nothing on offense as they were outgained 441-221 but they expect to get quarterback Baylor Hayes back as he is listed as questionable after missing two games with a knee strain but is trending on returning. This team has a vicious defense as the defensive line is aggressive and applies plenty of pressure and has led them to allowing just 15.3 ppg. On the other side, North Texas is 2-2 as it defeated UNLV by 38 points but that is a team looking for answers and the Rebels lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Mean Green other win was against Houston Christian of the FCS last week and while they should improve as the season moves along, this is an awful spot for them as their potent offense will face a massive test. As for their own defense, it has been inconsistent and this could be the spot Tulsa needs to get that offense back on track. We are getting an exceptional number on top of it. Here, we play on home teams after scoring 9 points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Pittsburgh came through for us last week as a divisional home underdog and now the role is reversed for the Steelers. They outgained the Bengals 411-352 after compiling 499 yards total in their first two games combined so which team shows up? They now face a stronger defense as the Bengals made them look like the teams from 10-20 years ago and we cannot trust them on the road. Aaron Rodgers had a good game last week but his numbers are below average as he is completing just 58.4 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Cleveland is 2-1 after back-to-back wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay by a combined seven points so this record could be worse. They have been outgained in all three games and will not be the popular play with this being similar to Philadelphia on Monday night when the vast majority of the money was on the Eagles and as of Tuesday, it is a similar story for the Steelers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 2017. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Obviously, the Bears are shorthanded on offense with Caleb Williams out and they will turn to Case Keenum who is seeing his first action since 2023 and with that, the line has not moved since it was announced on Monday. We are not sure what to expect from the Chicago offense but we will see a veteran presence and the offense will be relying heavily on the run games. The Philadelphia defense is dead last in the league in in time to pressure so they are not getting to the quarterback. Head coach Ben Johnson will have a solid game plan. The Eagles offense has not been lighting it up and have played two poor defenses. Philadelphia has issues of their own as the interior offensive line is an absolute mess, which is creating problems in pass protection and the running game. Tight end Dallas Goedert, who has played a big role early on, will miss this game because of a knee injury. Johnson has coached 21 total games off a SU loss, both as offensive coordinator with the Lions and coach of Bears and is 15-6 straight up and ATS. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (490) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Late Powerhouse. Arizona upset the Chargers in the season opener and the question is, was it because the Cardinals have potential or was it based on the Chargers being bad. We think it is the former despite Arizona getting rolled by Seattle last week but that was a tough spot. Now they play a second straight divisional game at an inflated price and road divisional dogs in the first three months of the season when playing in optimal weather have cashed 56 percent of the time since 2003. The 49ers are and have been a very public team and going back the last three seasons, they are 2-9 ATS after scoring 30 or more points with some of that due to the line in that next game being inflated to counter public money. They have looked great and once again, the linesmakers have to adjust. The Cardinals fall into the same situation as the Chargers as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (481) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Washington is our first ugly dog on Sunday as the public is not surprisingly all over the Seahawks. The Commanders are 0-2 and are now without quarterback Jayden Daniels who once again dislocated his elbow and they will again rely on Marcus Mariota who was forced into service against Dallas and was actually really good. He now faces a much better defense but has had a week of preparation and he is not going to asked to do everything. Seattle is 2-0 with a win over New England after Sam Darnold went down and then a trouncing of Arizona last week. This line has gone up five points since opening at 2.5 and we aren’t sure if Daniels is worth that but 79 percent of the tickets and 75 percent of the money thinks so. Going to a quarterback with little to no experience is one thing but backing a veteran is a non-issue. Sam Darnold is likely to return so wait on this line as it will go up even more. Here, we play on home teams in conference games, off 2 straight division games. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (462) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Early Attraction. We never thought the Chargers would be considered an ugly dog but here they are. They have been hot garbage, losing outright to the Cardinals and Raiders and they are already considered cooked by some. We aren’t going there just yet and this is the ideal spot to back them as this is as contrarian as it gets not only playing on a team that is 0-2 but going against the other side that seems unbeatable. The Chargers are just the second team in 60 years to lose their first two games when favored by at least 6.5 points with the other team being the 2022 Bengals which won game three and eventually went to the AFC Championship. Buffalo has looked great through two games, defeating two solid teams while covering and in this instance, they are playing with extra rest, another contrarian aspect. Desperation can be a good thing. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (477) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. The Steelers are coming off another poor offensive effort, this time against the Patriots and they come in as another ugly dog that no one will be on. Pittsburgh still has a stifling defense that plays even better at home and the stop unit allowed only 13 points to the Patriots offense after allowing 13 points to the Falcons. We are banking on that defense like it has stepped up in the past and the Steelers have relished this spot as they are 12-2-2 ATS as a home underdog in division games dating back to 2000. The Bengals are 2-0 thanks to the Buccaneers giving it away with four turnovers and they are outgained by 107 yards to the Texans. What is more telling where the sharp money is however as 80 percent of the handle and 93 percent of the money is on the Bengals yet the line has not moved since last Sunday night. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (464) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs and Dolphins have also started the season in opposite directions at 2-0 and 0-2 respectively. This one has extra special appeal as the Dolphins opened the season with two games on the road while Kansas City opened with two primetime home games and now hit the road in the heat and humidity. They are the public side which is no surprise and the line had not moved all week until Friday morning when the line actually came down a half-point across the board. The Dolphins were not competitive in either game on the scoreboard but they actually outgained the Raiders 5.9 to 4.3 in yppl and while we are not comparing the Chiefs to the Raiders, the pointspread is the greatest equalizer. In the first nine games of the regular season, home dogs of seven or more are 23-4-2 ATS since 2022. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points after playing a game at home going up against an opponent after a two game road trip. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic is coming off an ugly 16-10 win over Florida International in the Shula Bowl and that result helps us here as this number could be even higher. The Owls got absolutely rolled by Florida in their season opener but came back with an upset over Navy before the win last week where we can call a fortunate one. The Owls were outgained by 99 total yards but used a 3-0 turnover advantage and stopped the Panthers three times on fourth down in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Normally we would be weary of that false final but Florida Atlantic has a massive edge as quarterback Caden Veltkamp and the potent passing attack will have their way against one of the worst passing defenses in the country in the Warhawks, which come in 0-3 including losses to UAB and FCS SE Louisiana. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after 2 straight losses by six or less points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (395) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Main Attraction. One of the marquee games comes from the old Pac 12 as Oregon looks to regroup against a quality team. The Ducks narrowly defeated Boise St. at home and then lost at Oklahoma St. and while they defeated Portland St. 84-0 last week, we can’t take much out of that as it was a glorified practice. What it did do was give the players a confidence boost on the simple things and that can go a long way as we have seen these lopsided victories do future wonders. Oregon has a chance to keep that offensive momentum going as USC comes in having started off poorly on defense. The Trojans are No. 110 in Adjusted EPA/Play and are coming off a game at Rutgers, which lost to UMass and Boston College, and allowed 460 yards and four scores and on the season, they have allowed 26, 30 and 35 points in three of four games. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 2022. 10* (399) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. This is a game of opposite travel situations and should help Utah St. get into the win column for the first time this season. The Aggies return home after back-to-back road games against Washington and Utah where they managed 14 and 0 points respectively. The big cause for concern was the season opener where they lost 29-17 against FCS Idaho St. but Utah St. lost the turnover battle 4-0 so that was a fluke. We did win with the Aggies against Washington as they lost by only two points as a four-touchdown underdog and that letdown led to a poor effort last week against Utah. Conversely, Troy is coming off a road game, a 27-17 loss to Missouri and have to go back-to-back on the road, this one in high altitude. The Trojans two wins were against Sam Houston St. by three points where they were outgained and Alabama St. of the FCS. Here, we play against road teams averaging 6.4-7.5 ypa going up against teams allowing 5.6-6.4 ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-4 (87.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (410) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. Sometimes big wins can carry momentum and we think that is the case for Cincinnati. The Bearcats came back from a 28-7 deficit against Miami Ohio to win 35-31 and claim The Victory Bell in what was the last one in this oldest non-conference rivalry for at least the near future which is a travesty. Cincinnati is now 3-0 and making this a non-letdown spot is the fact this is the Big 12 Conference opener so the Bearcats will be jazzed for a night home game. Kansas St. came up small for us as it failed to cover against Tulane as they let the Green Wave hang around and they coasted prior to their own conference opener. They have looked excellent thus far and they come in favored which maybe should be the case but not at this number. Here, we play home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after three or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (346) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Vanderbilt is coming off one of the most improbable wins so far this season and one of the craziest endings to a game in recent memory. Coming off that last second win to improve to 3-0, the Commodores now hit the road for the first time this season likely still in celebration mode despite this being their conference opener. Vanderbilt was the big story of last season, narrowly missing out on the CFP but it had a lot of turnover coming into this season and the first road game makes it tougher. Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season at home against Florida and it gets to remain home to rebound from that defeat. We are seeing a 12-point swing and the big line is going to lure in the public to back Vanderbilt since everyone saw that ending last week. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) since 2017. 10* (390) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Year. Here is another letdown spot and this is one of the biggest letdowns we have encountered in a while. Mississippi is coming off the massive win over LSU and while it wasn’t a big time upset, it was the situation that it took place in which will put the Rebels in a vulnerable spot here. This could be considered a letdown spot for Florida which had a big win at Auburn but the difference we like here is that the Gators do the reverse travel and head home. Florida put up 495 passing yards against Auburn and that is where they should once again be able to find success as Mississippi sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators. Here, we play against road teams after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 28-11 (71.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (342) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We are starting to find some situations to play on or against with coming off big wins and losses and Kentucky is coming off the former. The Wildcats defeated Texas A&M on the road by 10 points to improve to 2-1 but it was a backwards victory as they were outgained by the Aggies which ran a whopping 30 more plays but could not get anything going. The win was huge which came after that Alabama second half debacle and now this presents a massive out of conference letdown and the fact they have South Carolina on deck. South Alabama is 2-1 with nothing overly exciting to get amped about but the Jaguars have outgained all three opponents as the only loss was to Tulane by four points despite outgaining the Green Wave 54 points. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (333) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Navy is coming off an early bye week following a 1-1 start as it rolled over Towson and then lost a tough one against Florida Atlantic. The Midshipmen have Air Force on deck which is normally a lookahead situation but in this case, there is no chance following a loss and then a bye week as this has been the circled game. They lost to the Owls due to allowing 386 yards passing but the good news is that UAB averages just 159.3 ypg through the air so there is no danger there. Navy will use its typical power running game to get the job done and will have little resistance here from the Blazers even with a new quarterback as Jackson Gutierrez has run this offense just fine. UAB is 1-2 with the lone win coming against UAB at home by six points and it was a rare favorite but this is a team that is in complete rebuilding mode as only three starters came back and while they get a rare home game on a Friday night, this is a game where they should be overmatched just like they have been in each of the last three seasons. Here, we play against home teams after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 40-11 (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (307) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. How bad is Atlanta? The Falcons are 0-2 and have scored only 16 points following their game this past Sunday where they managed only three points against Carolina, the same Carolina team that allowed 59 points last week. Quarterback Cooper Rush is clearly not a starter in this league while Jack Strand, who was a preseason darling, threw a pick six on his first NFL pass., Now they finally get Michael Penix Jr. back as he was named the starter and he looks to jumpstart and offense that has made history as the Falcons are the 4th team since NFL Play-by-Play was first tracked in 1978 without a redzone drive through two games. All of this adds up to value. Green Bay got away with one against the Jets as the Packers managed only 199 total yards and averaged only 4.7 yppl. They have zero running game while Jordan Love is completing only 52 percent of his passes as he is working behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and now they lost right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and their top two left guards, starter Aaron Banks and backup Donovan Jennings on Sunday. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2017. 10* (301) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Liberty came through for us Saturday as it finally put a complete game together against Ball St. and now the Flames are back on the road as a public favorite as this line has already flipped. This is a fade from an overreaction standpoint and while we expected a big effort from Liberty, a lot of that was going against Ball St. which was in an awful spot. The Flames put up 460 yards on offense but does that performance represent the offense moving forward or whether the first two games provide a more accurate indication as they struggled against James Madison and Gardner Webb. Despite Coastal Carolina entering at just 1-2, its offensive production and overall statistical profile have been better than the record might suggest as the two losses were on the road at West Virginia and Delaware by one possession. The only home game was a scrimmage against Fordham so there is not much to go off of but a primetime stand-alone game gives the Chanticleers the big edge and we are getting points on top of it. Here, we play against -teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses going up against an opponent in the first month of the season, a bowl team from the prior season who lost their last 3 games. This situation is 65-25 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a very public play with 74 percent of the money on the Rams but the public side gets their wins too. The Rams are coming off the dreadful appearance in Australia but have had time to adjust to the time difference and travel time, which we saw with San Francisco yesterday. This is the exceptional bounceback spot and we now have the number to work with. The Giants came through for us last week on Sunday night in a big home divisional win and because this is only Week Two, it is not a letdown spot but a brutal travel situation and having to face a team off a mini-bye loss. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a home underdog, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Chiefs are back as we all witnessed what they did against Denver. No they are not. Patrick Mahomes orchestrated the offense similar to the Chiefs of the past few seasons. No he didn’t. Kenneth Walker was the big bright spot for the Chiefs and he is going to play a big part this season but part of the opener as a whole was that Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. The Colts are no top defense but it will be better than that. Indianapolis had no chance against Baltimore and that puts them in a favorable spot as teams coming off an ATS loss by seven or more points in the opener and are a dog Week Two are 39-15-1 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2014. Additionally, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (277) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. There were many disappointments last week with the Chargers ranking in the top three of that category with Los Angeles counterpart the Rams and Broncos being there and this is a great bounce back spot. It was not a fluke loss for the Chargers, they never looked like they should have won that game and while that might sound concerning going forward, great teams respond and we think they fit that category. The new Mike McDaniel offense was expected to show something but as he called it, it was disjointed and uncomfortable but we see a huge turnaround here. The Raiders opened with a win but was not overly impressive, outgaining Miami by just 31 yards. Kirk Cousins was 21-30 but averaged 5.3 ypa which is pretty awful and was No. 29 of 32 quarterbacks that had 10 or more snaps. Here, we play against team off a home win by 10 points or more, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10*(268) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Broncos could not have looked worse last week. As mentioned in one other game analysis, Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. This is fixable, especially when it is only Week Two and heading home, this problem will be shored up. Bouncing back from that loss is most important but there is revenge at hand as Jacksonville came in here last season and rolled to a 34-20 win but Denver won the yards 445-346. Jacksonville looked in mid-season form in its win against Cleveland but the Browns are already candidates for the worst team in the league. Now they go to altitude in Wee Two (last year it was in December) and here, we play against road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 27-14 (65.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (270) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Early Attraction. The first inkling here is to take Houston after its tough loss to the Bills and fading the Bengals off their win over Tampa Bay. The big issue here is that this line has not moved despite the status of Joe Burrow who is now considered questionable with back tightness but there is a very unlikely chance that he will not play as this is the typical cat and mouse play. The Texans opener against the Bills was a chance to open with a big win but the defense could not stand up and the public is expecting a bounce back as 76 percent of the money is on Houston yet, no line move. The Texans are down to a skeleton crew at wide receiver with Nico Collins being ruled out and now Xavier Hutchinson is the top guy. No interest in that. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (261) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The first overreaction comes in a matchup between Green Bay and New York and on opposite ends. The Packers held a 22-10 lead in the third quarter against the Vikings before the bottom fell out with 29 unanswered points from Minnesota and now the season is already over for Green Bay. Admittedly, their offensive line is a liability and faces a tough front from the Jets but one that is unlikely to blitz 83 percent of the snaps which the Vikings did. New York played a very efficient game but that was against Tennessee with a new staff, new systems and apparently not a new culture. We were high on Tennessee coming in to the season and still could be sans the one game but the Jets are not as good as that opener looked. The Packers rebound. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by four or more last season, in weeks 1-3, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore was pegged as a favorite in the AFC to win the conference and it played the part in Week One and now the Ravens come in overpriced as the injury bug has already hit. Zay Flowers has been ruled out and two offensive line starters are doubtful yet Baltimore is favored north of a touchdown. Adding to the Baltimore drama, the NFL continues to ruin the NFL as the Ravens have a game in Brazil against the Cowboys next week to add to their distractions. New Orleans fell behind 21-0 last week in Detroit and nearly pulled off the win and it does not get easier here. We love the resiliency of this team and are in a spot to make more noise. We know Lamar Jackson is 25-3 against the NFC but that record dips to .500 ATS and being shorthanded is not ideal. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that finished last season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in weeks 1-3. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Dog. This is a low key rivalry game that is finally back on for the first time since 2002 and it is being played on a neutral field with the line being inflated for Virginia with a lot of that based on its big win over NC State to open the season and its current ranking. What we like better is the way West Virginia has looked on offense and has the potential for success. The key for the Mountaineers will be controlling the line of scrimmage and allowing quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. to use his mobility to extend plays. West Virginia has averaged 41.5 ppg, giving it enough offensive firepower to challenge Virginia's defense, especially on the ground. Virginia deserves respect at No. 25, but the Cavaliers are being asked to win by more than a touchdown, and that creates value on the West Virginia side and it is another game with the rushing dog shortening the game. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 33-15 ATS (68.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (188) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our Saturday Contrarian Crusher. Rice was a big letdown last week as it fumbled four times in the first half but the Owls failed to get the backdoor as they had their late opportunities but failed. They are back home catching a big number and it is a decent advantage playing in the heat and humidity that Western Michigan is not used to. Part of the capping last week was that Rice would use its option game to shorten the contest and they will now have the edge of a shortened game and getting points as Western Michigan is also run heavy so catching a big number in a game atmosphere like this is big. The Broncos are coming off a win over Monmouth last week but they were outgained in doing so which came after the Michigan controversy and because of that, they are now a public team. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season off a home win by 17 points or more after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (182) Rice Owls

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Liberty is coming off a one point win against Gardner Webb of the FCS with the latter being the more fired up team as their head coach was fired for misconduct after coaching just one game so they came together as a team. That narrow win is keeping this number within reach as the Flames are not going to be very popular. They outgained James Madison in the season opener but suffered another one possession loss which has marred them of late and that includes three overtime losses last season. Ball St. is one of the worst teams in the FBS as the win last week was against one of the worst teams in the FCS in Stony Brook. This is a woodshed game and the value is huge. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our Saturday Revenge Rout. Kansas St. has not been tested yet with its two wins and it will not be tested here either. The Wildcats have outgained their two opponents by an average of 279 ypg while the offense is averaging 303.5 ypg on the ground and that is bad news for Tulane. The Green Wave have been outgained in both games while allowing 216 ypg rushing and they are coming off a fake win last week over South Alabama as they were outgained and out first downed 25-13. While it was in 2022, Kansas St. is playing with revenge from a 17-10 loss and while none of the current Wildcat players were involved, head coach Collin Klein has been feeding them this week how the university and program were embarrassed. Here, we play on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points from a Power 4 conference and with an experienced quarterback going up against a G6 team and with an inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (124) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Game of the Month. Clemson got blown out by LSU in its season opener and the box score did not lie as the Tigers were utterly dominated from start to finish. They defeated Georgia Southern last week 22-7 and it was supposed to be the get right game and that score does not show that. They had two redzone turnovers and had to settle for five field goals so it should have been a lot worse and now is the true get right game in this conference opener in a highly motivated situation. North Carolina upset TCU in its season opener and then defeated East Tennessee St. of the FCS last week after a but and now the Tar Heels hit the highway for their first true road game. The departure of defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and everything surrounding it could cause an unnecessary distraction. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with four or fewer defensive starters returning. This situation is 88-51 ATS (63.3 percent) since 2022. 10* (120) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Houston is 2-0 while averaging 55 ppg, and the market has moved from Texas Tech around -13.5 at open to -7.5. They already have a common opponent as both have played Oregon St. Houston outgained Oregon St. 533-376, while Texas Tech allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers and were outgained 472-352 overall. The Cougars came in a sleeper to win the Big 12 Conference following 10 wins last season and while we do not typically play the road revenge angle, Houston has the roster and motivation to get that payback or at least keep this one within reach. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points good passing team from last season with a completion pct of 58% or better, in weeks 0-3, after allowing 8 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (109) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Buffalo pulled off the come-from-behind win over Houston on the road and now the Bills head home for their first ever game in the new Highmark Stadium but we are not playing them because of that as a new stadium isn’t really a motivator. Buffalo is simply the better team and has a huge home field advantage no matter what stadium they are in. The defense could be considered a concern as they allowed 31 points and 381 total yards but Houston ran 70 plays and only averaged 5.4 yppl while the Buffalo offense averaged 8.2 yppl with a +2.8 yppl differential. Conversely, Detroit was outgained 469-369 against New Orleans but snuck out the overtime win. The Lions were outgained 5.8 to 5.1 yppl so it was not a great performance at home and now they have to hit the road on a short week after an overtime game so they are in a very tough position. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 35 points or more last game. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2022 with an average scoring differential of +10.8 ppg. 10* (104) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Syracuse let us down last weekend as it lost outright against California despite outgaining the Golden Bears 436-239 while blowing an early 12-0 lead. Turnovers did the Orange in as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 that included a pick six late in the fourth quarter that gave California the final lead. This line is inflated because of the final score and not what exactly transpired in the game itself. Pittsburgh rolled over Miami Ohio in its opener but struggled against Central Florida last week as it only won 12-7. The box score shows it should have been a bigger victory so it can be argued the win was a little flawed but the Panthers do not deserve to be such a big favorite in their conference opener. Here, we play on road teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (105) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have not been able to solve the Dallas Cowboys as they are 2-16 over the last 18 meetings so it comes as no surprise that they open the season as home underdogs. While we do not think they are going to take the league by storm, we do like the direction they are going as last season was a disappointing 4-13 result but there were good signs as long as they can stay healthy, namely Jaxson Dart. Last season, three of their four wins were by 17 points or more while seven losses were by one possession so things should have been better. Then there is Jim Harbaugh who is ready to change this culture. Dallas is again getting props to make a run at the NFC East as it finished with one of the best offenses in the NFL but the defense was atrocious. The Cowboys made numerous changes on that side of the ball but it could take time to come together. 10* (480) New York Giants

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is another instance where we are fading a bad defense and an overvalued public team. The Packers snuck into the playoffs last season but were one and done after losing their final four regular season games and now they start the season with a lack of a running game with the absence of Josh Jacobs. Defensively they will be without Micah Parsons for at least four games and that will be felt as they face a new quarterback for the Vikings in Kyler Murray and what better way for a career resurrection than to be taught by Kevin O’Connell, just go back a couple years and look no further than Sam Darnold. The Vikings have the better defense and the goal is to get pressure on Jordan Love without needing to blitz and they should accomplish that. This number did a flip but there is still value as in this type of divisional game, the number should be three. 10* (478) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Chicago had one of its best seasons in recent memory as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. The Bears were very fortunate as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. Also, seven wins came when trailing under two minutes. We expect regression especially with a defense that is not good and already dealing with injuries. The last time we saw Carolina, it nearly pulled off a stunner against the Rams in the playoffs and the Panthers open the season as home underdogs, a role they have succeeded in as they are 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. Another great value play. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. We have seen this line move a point since opening and it is now over the key number of three. We are high on Cincinnati this season as we bet its team total over 10.5 with the main reasons being that they will be facing the easiest schedule along with going up against the easiest projected offenses in total. This is not one of those situations as Tampa Bay is one of the few quality opponents even though it finished on a 2-7 run last season and the contrarian aspect of that includes the Buccaneers finishing last season going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games. The Bengals fell short as well because Joe Burrow again missed a ton of time and they had one of the worst defenses which they tried to fix this offseason. However this is a wait and see so we will grab the value and this number easily could go up more close to game time as it will not be going down. 10* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Late Night Powerhouse. Sacramento St. is one of two new teams to enter the FBS and it has been an encouraging start as it is 1-1 with the loss being a close one at Eastern Michigan followed up by a blowout win over Mississippi Valley St. The issue with the latter is that the Delta Devils are notoriously the worst team in the country year after year so it meant nothing except for posting its first ever FBS win. The Hornets have been a top team in the FCS for years but they basically lost everyone and got a new head coach in Alonzo Carter and the worst part, they were granted a move to the FBS after the portal so they got slim pickings. Fresno St. opened with a 39-0 loss at USC as the offense mustered only 116 total yards while the defense allowed 552 yards. This is an overreaction but it was against one of the best teams in the country and the Bulldogs are going to be Pac 12 contenders and this is the bounce back spot. Here, we play against road teams after allowing 4.5 or less passing ypa last game, with four or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (406) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. North Dakota St. has looked impressive in its first two games in the FBS as it has outscored its two opponents 71-7 but it played Jacksonville St., which was gutted by the portal and graduation and then destroyed Fordham so the competition was weak. And both of those were at home as it now hits the road for the first time, and as a favorite no less in its first ever Mountain West game and Air Force is not going to overlook the Bison in any form especially with this being a conference game. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent last week as it shut out Duquesne 34-0 so they were not tested but this team is ready to contend in the Mountain West Conference once again after two straight disappointing seasons. The defense was excellent last season and brings back eight starters while the rushing offense has enough back to continue to succeed at running the ball. Here, we play on teams good rushing team from last season that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc, in weeks 0-3, with 8 defensive starters returning. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) since 2022. 10* (402) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off an 8-5 season which was its first season since 2019 with a winning record and now it heads to the Sun Belt Conference expected to contend right away. The Bulldogs hung 80 points on Northwestern St. last week and while that is no competition to what they will see this week, getting that confidence in the first game is huge. Will they pull off the upset here? No but they can stay within this large number that is inflated from the LSU performance from last week. The Tigers absolutely destroyed Clemson as head coach Lane Kiffin let no distractions get in their way. That was the marquee game last weekend so it presents fading the letdown and while we cannot take anything away from them in that impressive performance, we are not going to see it again as the Tigers have a massive game at Ole Miss next week so they will not be showing much more. Here, we play on teams after allowing 2.75 or less yppl in their previous game, with five or fewer offensive starters returning. This situation is 29-8  ATS (78.4 percent) since 2017. 10* (393) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. With the exception of Syracuse winning 66-3 over New Hampshire last week, this is a solid spot for the Orange. It was an FCS opponent and with most every FCS team getting blown out in Week One, there is no overreaction to that win and the line is definitely saying that. Syracuse is expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC as it is coming off a 3-9 season but this could be a team that dominates on offense similar to how it did in 2024 when it was 10-3 behind Kyle McCord as Steve Angeli is back after getting injured last season and missed most of the season. California got blown out by UCLA and now heads to the east coast for its conference opener. The offense did some good things but certainly not enough ad the biggest concern for California off that loss is the rushing defense as it allowed 277 yards on 32 carries (8.7 ypc). Here, we play on home teams in the first two weeks of the season off a home win by 28 points or more after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. One of the more misleading finals from last week came from the Utah St./Idaho St. game as the Aggies 29-17 despite outgaining them 407-241 but losing the turnover battle 4-0 did them in. This is another situation where we can point to the overreaction and we are seeing it with this line as the Aggies are nearly four touchdown underdogs with a lot of that coming from last week. Utah St. is playing in the Pac 12 and could contend with an experienced team. Washington is coming off a lethargic effort in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it won 24-10 despite winning the turnovers at +3. The Huskies are considered playoff contenders behind quarterback Desmond Williams but this is definitely a letdown spot coming off the big rivalry game where typically it has been the last game of the season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yppl last season, in weeks 0-3, after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 38-14 (73.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (337) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the RICE OWLS as part of our Saturday Three-Pack SWEEP. Notre Dame blew out Wisconsin last week 41-13 but outgained the Badgers by only 66 total yards but won the turnover battle 2-0 which included a pick six. Notre Dame did hold Wisconsin to 67 yards rushing on 31 carries (2.2 ypc) but its own offense had just 111 yards on 32 carries (3.5 ypc) and while it will take a step down in class here, laying a big number in this matchup is not ideal. They are going to get a game where Rice is going to want to slow it to a snail pace by killing clock on the ground. Trying to cover more than six touchdowns makes that difficult as it would need everything to break their way. The Owls were expected to be a much improved team last season under first years head coach Scott Abbel but his implementation of the triple option never took because of lack of the right personnel but that could change this season. Here, we play against favorites of 21.5 or more points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg last season, in weeks 0-3, with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. This situation is 84-46 ATS (64.6 percent) since 2017. 10* (359) Rice Owls

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Week Two is always overreaction week in College Football and this is where we can find some of the best spots and take advantage of overreaction lines. In this case, we are not really seeing an overreaction line but a line that has not moved despite what happened last week and the fact 95 percent of the money is on Oklahoma. Michigan should be 0-1 but despite the win, the Wolverines were very unimpressive throughout the entire game which quarterback Bryce Underwood at the top of that list. Now he faces a legit defense that came into the season with the No. 3 Defensive Line and No. 4 Linebackers and is coming off a shutout over UTEP while allowing just 198 yards. This is the spot to take Michigan as already no one is one them and they will not be come gametime either as the Sooners will be heavily bet at the short number. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, who lost their last two games last season and had a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Saturday Early Dominator. Last week was filled with blowouts and while that will temper down as the season progresses, we see another one here. We took Alabama last week with the thought that it needed a statement win and even though it was just East Carolina, the Tide needed to come out strong. They did and we feel the same for Virginia Tech and while it won 73-3 last week against VMI, the Hokies will be out to do it again, this time against an FBS team and one that it lost to by 19 points last season. New head coach will be coaching with a chip on his shoulder after getting axed last season and he has already brought in a new culture. VMI is no good but Virginia Tech looked the part from years ago and he will not be letting up. Old Dominion also rolled last week against Norfolk St. but it was only by 21 points and the Monarchs only won the yards by 99 total. Here, we play on teams after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing 3.75 yards or less yppl, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Missouri and Kansas are coming off season opening blowout wins and they meet for the 122nd edition of The Border War. Starting in 2007, it was held at Arrowhead Stadium and the rivalry then fizzled away in 2012 until last year when Missouri won 42-31 and now they are in Lawrence playing each other for the first time since 2005. As for the Kansas offense, it welcomed back offense coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left for Penn St. for two seasons and his return should ignite the unit and we saw that in Game One albeit against an FCS opponent. The Missouri defense will be challenged on the road as the Tigers brought back only two starters from last season. The Jayhawks have been pegged as a six-win team this season and we expect them to get it done at home in their FBS opener after closing last season with three losses and ultimately missing out on a bowl game. Here, we play against nonconference Power 4 road teams that had a winning percentage between .600 and .800 last season playing a team that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in weeks 0-3. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Wednesday Kickoff Winner. The season opener is a rematch of the Super Bowl from last season, won by Seattle 29-13, marking only the third time in NFL history that there is a rematch of the Super Bowl in Week One. There have been 11 Super Bowl rematches in history with the champion going 8-3 in those games. The Seahawks start their title defense at home while laying a shorter number than what they were favored by last February so we are catching value. The Patriots are coming off an unexpected run to the Super Bowl after going 14-3 and dethroning the Bills in the AFC East and coming even close to that is unlikely. They played one of the easiest schedules last season and one big reason for their success was the fact they went 9-0 on the road which is the best in NFL history so they will regress when leaving home. Eight of those 14 regular season wins were by one possession so they were lucky in that regard while also being fortunate with injuries, finishing with the sixth fewest adjusted games to injury. Under head coach Mike McDonald, Seattle is 21-2 as a favorite. 10* (452) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic has not had a winning season since 2019 when it went 11-3 (not counting the 5-4 COVID season) and signs are pointing up in Boca Raton in the second year for head coach Zach Kittley. The Owls were 4-8 last season with seven of those losses by double digits so they were not competitive and the difference being in or not in games was the fact they were -21 in turnover margin which was easily the worst in the country. They gave it up 29 times and while 17 of those were interceptions from quarterback Caden Veltkamp, he injured his shoulder early in the season and he was limited while trying to do too much. He still set the school record for total offense which followed up being named the CUSA Offensive Player of the Year the previous season so he can produce when healthy and that he is at this point. Florida will be a popular play this season as a bounce back team, largely in part due to the Gators hiring Jon Sumrall who had successful stints at Tulane and Troy. They bring back a lot and hit the portal hard and come into the season with the #42 ranked team in experience (Florida Atlantic is #14) but there is no experience at quarterback as a pair of backups last season are competing for the starting job. This team will be on every Most Improved List but laying this number? No thanks. 10* (175) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. We are very high on Auburn this season and this game will set the tone. It is hard to believe but the Tigers have had five straight losing seasons, the last time this happened was 1946-1950 so it is rock bottom right now. Enter head coach Alex Goesh as we have a situation where a coaching change should boost the value of a team. He comes over from South Florida who turned around a program that was dug into the ground by Jeff Scott and he comes into another program that was going nowhere. While the offense has only one returning starter, several players followed Golesh including quarterback Byrum Brown along with a slew of receivers. While it was another rough season, there is value based on the record from last season and people see that to fade but six of the seven losses were by one possession with the other loss being just 10 points against Georgia. Baylor is another team that has underachieved in some recent seasons and coming off a 5-7 season, head coach Dave Aranda is firmly on the hot seat. Like Auburn, the Bears are hoping a transfer quarterback will help them turn the corner and in their case it is D.J. Lagway who comes over from Florida. He should have a better season but we are not sold and there is a brand new receiving room in place as well. This game is in Atlanta but Auburn will have the fan edge. 10* (210) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Contrarian Crusher. Penn St. is a popular team to bounce back after the disappointment from last season and a main reason they are being backed to make the CFP is because the Nittany Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the country. But this is a sneaky tough game and they are still laying a massive number. While they very well may have reloaded, it could take some time for the chemistry to come together. One big concern is their defensive line as they were gutted in the trench as they lost 12 defensive linemen to the draft and the transfer portal. Marshall will surely try to take advantage of this with their expected potent run game. Marshall averaged about 197 rushing ypg last season which was No. 22 in the country and this is a recipe in controlling temp and shortening the game which is important for these big underdogs to stay within the number. Additionally, Marshall returns quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, giving the Thundering Herd some continuity heading into the season. The Marshall defense was a big reason they had a losing record last season but they are expected to be much better  While Penn St. has the much better talent simply because of who they are but this is a tough spot for the Nittany Lions especially with a brand new coaching staff and the fact they are No. 126 in experience. 10* (163) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. If any team needs a statement win in its season opener, it is Alabama as the natives are getting restless, fans and boosters alike, now that the Crimson Tide have not been to a National Championship game since 2021. They were hit in the face by Indiana 35-3, their worst loss in 28 years, to close out last season and that has been on the mind of everyone that is back this season and they need a blowout win as a team to get some swagger back. They are the No. 13 team in Experience Rankings which is a big strength this early in the season. On paper, the Tide have huge advantages all over the place especially on the defensive side when going against the East Carolina offense. They have five starters back with another two added from elsewhere and overall they have 61 percent of their production back. They face an East Carolina offense that was gutted as they have only one starter back from last season and that is a slot that made only one start. New offensive coordinator Jordan Davis arrives from North Texas, so ECU is installing a new system while replacing much of its production. The Pirates do have considerably more upside than the raw amount of returning production suggests but this will take shape last in the season when they have played a few games and will have their players into the systems heading into AAC play. 10* (182) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Toledo is getting too much respect here. The Rockets are coming off an 8-5 season and have not had a losing season since 2009 but it is a complete rebuild. Mike Jacobs, who won two straight SoCon championships with Mercer after winning a South Atlantic Conference title at Lenoir-Rhyne, takes over as head coach after Jason Candle left for Connecticut and he took several top offensive stars with him to Storrs as quarterback Kalieb Osborne, running back Kenji Christian, six wide receivers, and four offensive linemen are gone. The defense is in just as bad of shape as all nine defenders who were All-MAC selections have departed and overall, plenty of the missing pieces are coming from FCS Mercer. Michigan St. has had four straight losing seasons and also has a new head coach in Pat Fitxgerald who will look to get this program back to respectability. The Spartans defense can count on its returning talent and they are getting a bunch of good transfers coming in to go along with a decent base of players in a Fitzgerald system. The defense had only nine takeaways last season which was bottom ten in the country. The offense will be fine with quarterback Alessio Milivojevic who is back after taking over late in the season and was successful with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Great favorite value with the Sprtans. 10* (150) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the AKRON ZIPS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Wake Forest won nine games last season under first year head coach Jake Dickert and it was fortunate with four one possession wins. The Demon Deacons have a lot to replace on offense especially in the run game as leading rusher Demond Claiborne is gone along with four offensive linemen and they went 7-1 last season when they ran for 130 or more yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford is also gone and is being replaced by North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez and it is far from an upgrade. They will have to rely on their defense most likely once again. While it is a fade of Wake Forest, it is also a play on Akron that went 5-7 last season with nothing to play for as they were ineligible for a bowl game due to APR restrictions so head coach Joe Moorhead got the best out of his Zips squad and this could be his best team yet. The offense improved slightly from 2024 and now they have seven starters back but while one of those is not quarterback Ben Finley, they will turn to Reece Poffenbarger who has not started but sat behind Cam Ward at Miami and Drew Mestemaker at North Texas. Akron has not fared well against P4 teams at it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 but those losses were Auburn, Ohio St. twice, Michigan St., Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina and Nebraska and this Wake Forest edition is not in that grouping. 10* (143) Akron Zips

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Opening Enforcer. We have seen the UNLV line on the move as this number opened at 3 and moved the most in late July and has slightly risen again. The season UNLV had last year is a big reason and the Rebels are favored to win the Mountain West Conference but bring back only seven starters total and have a new quarterback in Jackson Arnold who has underachieved in his two previous stops. He will be fine here based on the competition he will be facing is a lot weaker but this is a tough matchup as he is prone to getting sacked and will face a heavy pressure defense. Memphis comes in with a new head coach and a relatively overworked roster but the Tigers look to be in good shape. Charles Huff takes over after turning around programs at Marshall and Southern Mississippi with the latter being the most recent and very impressive as he turned a 1-11 team into a 7-6 bowl team last season. Now he heads to Memphis and a program with the highest NIL money to spend in the Group of 6 thanks to $25 million from FedEx alone. He brought 12 important players with him from Southern Mississippi to provide instant chemistry and hired two awesome coordinators. Great value in this spot as we have this line UNLV -1.2. 10* (315) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the NORTH DAKOTA ST. BISON for our CFB Game of the Month. North Dakota St. comes in as a significant favorite in its first ever FBS game but this isn’t just any new FBS team and we have this number at 13.7. The Bison have ten FCS national titles in the last 15 seasons and won five D-II national championships so they have a winning pedigree and come in as a near co-favorite to win the Mountain West Conference at +300 with a win total of 8.5. Offensively last season, they were among the best in the nation on third downs and controlled the time of possession battle in every game with the exception of the playoff loss to Illinois St. They have to break in a new quarterback in Nathan Hayes but he has plenty of experience in the system as a backup as he logged a lot of time and he has the tools and mobility. They were No. 1 in the country in total defense and scoring defense and bring a ton back. There isn’t a huge difference as Jacksonville St. is just three years removed from the FCS level and while it has found great success with three nine-win seasons, it is a rebuilding year for the Gamecocks and they could not have asked for a worse scenario than what they will be going into. The running game was outstanding but lost a lot and the defense will be tested. 10* (320) North Dakota St. Bison

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LX Side Winner. We have faded New England in all three playoff games and got burned twice but now it is time to back the Patriots in an overinflated line and over a key number. The underdog has been the way to go recently and it makes perfect sense as the public loves the favorites which is the case again this year with the Seahawks getting the majority of the early money. Since 2004, underdogs have gone 15-7 ATS including five straight covers and while the contrarian in us likes to fade a streak like that, not when it is a public one. Going back a little further and going number specific, underdogs of three points or more are 13-4 ATS since 2001-02. The matchup seems to be the reason the Seahawks are the public team and their defense is great but we are still not entirely sold on the offense facing a strong New England defense. This will be the fourth straight elite defense the Patriots will face and while they have not been able to put up the points, the defense did its work and with Josh McDaniels looking at what the Rams have been able to do, they should have a solid plan.  The weather factored into both sides for sure so the raw stats are somewhat skewed. The strength of schedule is another concern (guilty here) with the Patriots possessing the easiest in the NFL but they have taken care of business and that is what matters. According to PFR, the schedule was last at -4.5 and going back in Super Bowl history, teams with a strength of schedule at -4 or worse have actually gone 3-1. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less in the last game going up against an opponent after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 51-24 (68 percent) since 2021. 10* (110) New England Patriots

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC Championship Winner. The Rams have survived two scares on the road to make it to the NFC Championship and after being favored in those games, they are rightfully underdogs here but they can make a case of being the better team. This will be a case of recency bias as everyone has seen how the Rams have struggled the last two weeks and how dominant Seattle has looked of late with its eight straight wins and now laying a short number. The Seahawks had no issues with the 49ers last week as the injuries definitely played a part. The defense continues to lead the way as they moved ahead of Houston for the No. 1 spot in EPA but let’s not forget the Los Angeles defense that is No. 7 in EPA and the difference in this will be on the offense end. The Rams were the only team in the NFL to finish in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and they are No. 2 in offense coming into this week with Seattle sitting No. 14 and the Rams will be in the Seattle backfield quite often and Sam Darnold will be hounded all night. The contrarian aspect of this game is that the Rams are playing their third straight road playoff game and those teams in the past have not fared well while Seattle has won 11 straight home playoff games (excluding COVID year) so we buck both. 10* (103) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Championship Winner. It was a rough Divisional Round with a bad call on Houston as C.J. Stroud looked clueless and a bad beat on the Rams which looked as though they would get the cover until the miracle Caleb Williams touchdown to force overtime. The Patriots cruised through two games at home against the Chargers and Texans and now they hit the road as an overvalued favorite which is due to the quarterback situation with Denver. Bo Nix is out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle and it will be Jarret Stidham who is making just his fifth career start and it is not as bad as people may think. Nix is not an elite starter in the NFL but the line move based on his absence is showing that he is so that is incorrect. Stidham will have had the whole week to prepare as opposed to being thrown into the fire and he has been in this system the whole time under Sean Payton. Three backup quarterbacks have made postseason starts at home and all three have won so home field is huge. This is obviously the big talking point but no one is talking about the Denver defense that is No. 8 in EPA and facing Drake Maye making his first road playoff start. Since 1975, home underdogs of four points or more are 9-0 ATS in the playoffs including a Carolina cover this season. 10* (102) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Game of the Year. Indiana looks unstoppable and unbeatable at this point and the Hoosiers come in as overwhelming favorites to win the National Championship at -340 and yes we are going contrarian with value in the spread. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the Semifinals and after the Oregon rampage, the Hoosiers were at 7.5 across the board. We have since seen it move to 8.5 which is in reality is a dead number but any extra edge could be huge. The line of scrimmage usually dictates the outcomes of most games and that will certainly be the case here. The Hoosiers usually have that advantage but not here and we start with the Miami defense. College Football Nerds on X provided a great rushing statistic, If you look at their season, in all the close games (Penn State, Iowa, Ohio St.) Indiana was held under 3.5 yards/carry. Every time Indiana ran for 4+ yards/carry vs  a P4, they won by 25+ points. In this matchup, the Hurricanes are tied for No. 7 in the country, allowing 3.0 ypc and in the three CFP games, they have allowed 255 yards on 80 carries (3.2 ypc). Overall, Miami is No. 15 in Defensive EPA and it recorded 13 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in wins over Texas A&M, Ohio St. and Mississippi. Offensively, Miami needs to run the ball and continuously run it even if there is no success early on. Miami ran 51 times against Mississippi and 37 times against Ohio St. and they line has the talent and the power to control and also, surrendered just eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss in the three games. Against Power 4 teams, Indiana has been run on more than 30 times only twice, Penn St. and Iowa and we know the results of those games. Yes, it is easier said than done, but stick to the plan and Miami will cover and has a chance to win outright. 10* (287) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams got away with one against Carolina and the Panthers certainly had their number this season and now they remain on the road in another bad weather game and one that will be much colder. That could have an adverse effect on Los Angeles but Matthew Stafford is 2-3 when playing in a temperature of 30 points or less. Stafford is 4-0 in his playoff career as a favorite and teams coming off a win but who failed to cover and not coming off a bye  are 21-12 ATS since 2003-04 including 8-2 ATS since 2020-21. The top five teams in the Luck Ratings remain alive in the playoffs and coming in at No. 3 is Chicago as the Bears did it yet again. As mentioned last week, Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter and that total went up to seven. They were down 21-3 and outscored Green Bay 25-6 in the fourth quarter including the final 15 points in the final 4:18 of the game. Sure, they can do it again but now face the only remaining team that is in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA. Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 in the Divisional Round since 2003 including 3-22 since 2011. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (393) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. New England passed its first test as it was able to breakaway from the Chargers for a 16-3 win thanks to the defense that allowed just 207 yards against an offensive line that was completely dominated. The offense they face this week is not that much better as far EPA goes but the offensive line is healthy and a much better pass blocking unit, finishing No. 5 in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Drake Maye is the story and in his career he has faced only five winning teams at the time of the game at home, going 2-3 including 1-1 this season with the Chargers being the win. The 16 points scored on offense is an issue not only facing the best defense in the league but since 2011, teams are 4-9 in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 points in a playoff victory. Houston has won 10 straight games which started from that improbable comeback against Jacksonville where it outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter. This comes after starting the season 0-3 and the Texans are one of only seven teams to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start and they are actually the only team to now do it twice. Defense can take over a game and we saw that last week in Pittsburgh as the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA team dominated the Steelers by allowing 175 yards and just six points while scoring two defensive touchdowns. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 2021. 10* (387) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arguably, Pittsburgh should not be here as it got into the postseason, and a home playoff game to go with it, because of a missed 44-yard field goal as time expired but a second life can be revitalizing, especially for a team that is on a 0-6 playoff losing streak which started in 2016. The Steelers are fortunate for sure but get a good matchup at home and while facing a red hot team does not seem ideal, it is just fine. Houston is on a roll and the Texans fans love the momentum but watch what you ask for as teams entering the postseason on a nine or more game winning streak are just 6-19 ATS since 2002 as these teams are essentially overvalued every time as the public loves these big winning streaks but they do not understand the value taken away in the pointspread because of it. We all know the stat, or at least you should, that going back to 1992, the Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football including 12-0 under head coach Mike Tomlin (does not include the 2020 game against Washington when the game actually started at 5:00 PM ET and with no fans in the stands). Bring in Aaron Rodgers who is 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS when playing at home on Monday Night Football. He falls into a champion system as well as since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 38-17-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (386) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Wild Card Game of the Year. The public loves the Patriots here as they blew through the league by going from a 4-13 record last season to a 14-3 record this season. Playing the easiest schedule in the NFL, not only this season but it ranked as the third-easiest schedule since 1978 and the second-easiest in the 21st century based on opponent performance. As a favorite of three points or more or more, New England is 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 17 ppg but the only team with a winning record in those games was, you guessed it, there was not one as the best team was Carolina. This just goes back to the schedule the Patriots have faced as they defeated only one team with a winning record and that was Buffalo who also returned the favor and the only other opponent they faced with a winning record was Pittsburgh which resulted in a loss. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. The Chargers rested last week and are ready to go with an elite defense that allows the fewest 20-yard or more pass plays and an offense featuring Justin Herbert who is 18-12 ATS as an underdog. Here, we play against teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half of the last game. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (383) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Packers enter this game as a slight favorite despite coming in on a four-game losing streak but that comes with an asterisk as they rested starters last week, making health more important than momentum and we buy into that decision. One big health issue is the return of tackle Zach Tom who has been out since Week 15. That will help Jordan Love who is fully healthy and comes in ranked No. 2 in Quarterback EPA/Play (Caleb Williams No. 13) and the Packers rely on explosives which is what the Bears defense loves to allow and they will have a big edge. Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. This season, the Packers are 0-6-1 ATS when catching the majority of the money and 6-3 ATS when their opponent is the public side and as of Thursday afternoon, Chicago is getting 71 percent of the money and that is not going to flip when the real public money comes pouring in on the Bears. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (377) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Ducks/Hoosiers Dominator. This is a rematch of the meeting from October 11 where Indiana went to Eugene and won 30-20. The Ducks shut down Texas Tech as they won outright 23-0 as a slight dog. Oregon has dominated since the first meeting with the exception of a two-point win at Iowa and the rematch is in their favor at this number where we do not even need to win outright. In the three rematches in the CFP, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch as Oklahoma and Georgia lost while Mississippi was the only team to sweep but that was against Tulane. The top line rushing numbers for Oregon were not good in the first meeting but it was quarterback Dante Moore that brought it down as the three running backs that ran for more than 10 yards rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries (6.4 ypc) so they can have more success with more running attempts. Moore was not good but the tape from the first game will help immensely. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 26-6 (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (275) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFP Canes/Rebels Enforcer. Mississippi is on borrowed time and this is the spot where it ends. The Rebels are off a huge win over Georgia and as soon as the game ended, the entire assistant coaching staff that will be heading to LSU left for Baton Rouge to be available for the opening of the transfer portal. This is not ideal for preparation as they are getting just a week as opposed to having 12 days to get ready for Georgia which was a team they knew already anyway. The offense was great against the Bulldogs but Georgia did not have much of a pass rush all year long, and against Mississippi, it had no sacks and had just three tackles for loss. Miami is a different story and facing a similar quarterback like they saw when they played Texas A&M, they sacked Marcel Reed seven times and followed that up by sacking Julian Sayin five times and in total, the Hurricanes allowed 17 total points and 134 total rushing yards. This defense is going to be the difference. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 22-11 (66.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (273) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Baltimore comes in as the road favorite and we have seen the number go up and down but it remains north of the key number of 3. The Ravens are laying because Lamar Jackson is playing and while this typically would be a huge edge, he has not been healthy for a long time and his performance is way down from last season. The Ravens lost the first meeting at home by five points as a 5.5-point favorite and we are not seeing a proper line adjustment in what is a heavily underdog dominated season. The underdog is 30-12-3 ATS since 2005 including 25-7-3 ATS during the regular season and head coach Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to a 13-2 record when scoring 10 points or less in their previous game including a 2-0 record this season, the win in Baltimore being one of those after losing to Buffalo 26-7. Here. We play against road teams off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (350) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another game meaningless for both sides and namely the Packers as they are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC and their goal is to get out of here unscathed. Green Bay is resting mostly every significant starter to stay healthy as the learned the tough lesson last season. The one downfall is that the Packers could enter the postseason with no momentum as they have already lost their last three games but entering the playoffs healthy is more important. Minnesota had a lost season as it went through a 1-6 stretch after opening 3-2 and playoff hopes were lost but the Vikings have responded with four straight wins and a victory here means a winning season and that is big going into the offseason. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings defense is No. 1 in EPA and now they get to square off against Clayton Tune. Here, we play on teams off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (336) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New Orleans is closing in on a strong ending to the season as it has won four straight games heading into the season finale. The Saints are 6-10 following the winning streak but two of those wins were against the Buccaneers and Panthers, which have been as inconsistent as any teams in the league, and the Jets and Titans, two of the three worst teams in the league according to Sagarin. They now face a team that has also shown recent signs of consistency as the Falcons have won three straight games following a win over the Rams on Monday night. The best they can finish is 8-9 which would put them in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South but tiebreakers have already eliminated them. Both teams would love to go out with decent winning streaks but we give the edge to the home team that is much healthier. Here, we play against underdogs after four or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season. This situation is 57-22 (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (358) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Neither team has anything to play for and it is Cleveland that played its most important game in the second half of the season, defeating Pittsburgh and spoiling the Steelers shot at clinching last week. The Browns are now back on the road and were in a mismatch to begin with but coming off that win spells letdown and the added road struggles make Cleveland a big fade. The Browns have been solid at home, or at least competitive against the number, as they are 16-10 ATS over the last three seasons but on the road over the same stretch they are 6-18 ATS. The Bengals have been prolific on offense since Joe Burrow came back from his injury with the exception of the 24-0 loss to Baltimore. The defense has improved as well as the Bengals were No. 32 in EPA through the first half but have shown positive adjustments. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.5 or less passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Winner. This game will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle has put itself into position for the top seed as it has won six straight games following a win in Carolina last week, breaking open a 3-3 game at halftime with the defense leading the way, allowing only 139 total yards. The Seahawks remain on the road where they are 7-1 with the lone loss coming at Los Angeles against the Rams by only two points and this is the reason they are the favorites. The 49ers have also won six straight games while covering all of those and while that would suggest a fade, not at this number. The 49ers have been outgained five times this season but four of those were on the road and the one instance at home was against the Rams by only eight total yards. San Francisco won the first meeting by four points but it was a much bigger domination as they outgained the Seahawks by 154 yards but it was the red zone inefficiency along with penalty issues that kept it close. Here, we play against teams after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (362) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our Duke’s Mayo Bowl Smash. Mississippi St. comes in 5-7 and is favored in a bowl game after coming into the season with a win total of three after winning only two games last season. The Bulldogs find themselves in the Duke's Mayo Bowl after both Iowa St. and Kansas St. opted out of playing a postseason game as they got in per their high APR numbers and also leapfrogged Florida St., Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Rutgers and Temple because they all declined invitations as well. Ther offense was surprisingly good as it finished No. 52 in EPA but quarterback Blake Shapen has opted out and freshman Kamario Taylor will get the start. Wake Forest counters with a defense that is No. 11 in EPA and No. 8 in Success Rate and the Demon Deacons should dictate the game. The offense was below average at No. 85 in EPA but faces an awful defense that ranked No. 88 in EPA and allowed 35 points or more in half of their games including 40 or more points four times. Here, we play on neutral field teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (269) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our Tide/Hoosiers Enforcer. Indiana is the story of college football for the second straight season as the Hoosiers went through the season undefeated which included winning the Big Ten Conference Championship over Ohio St., hanging the Buckeyes their first loss in 16 games. The Hoosiers came in as 3.5-point underdogs in that game and now are seeing over a 10-point swing and it is just too much. Indiana put up crazy points over the second half of the season, scoring 31 points or more in five of their last seven games but all five of those were against non-bowl teams. The defenses will be the focal point and while Indiana is No. 14 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17. Offensively, the Crimson Tide were below average by their standards at No. 31 in EPA with the running game being the biggest issue with the last two games showing it at just 29 total yards on the ground. This is where we go contrarian as Indiana has allowed only one FBS team to grab 100 rushing yards. This is just the 13th time the Tide have been underdogs over the last 17 years and have gone 8-4 ATS. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 42-12 (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (261) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our Canes/Buckeyes Dominator. This line opened at 9.5 and has remained steady and we are going with the biggest underdog of the CFP Quarterfinals and the Hurricanes. Miami owned the line of scrimmage against Texas A&M as the Hurricanes had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on defense against an Aggies team that rarely gave up either. The Buckeyes allowed Indiana to get five sacks of Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship and it was by far the most pressure he’s faced this season. This Miami team showed its defense is not overrated as they held Texas A&M to 89 yards rushing and that was the Aggies biggest strength. The Miami offensive line allowed only two sacks and six tackles for loss against Texas A&M which was among the nation’s best in both categories. The key for Miami will be being able to keep their run game going and not having to get into a drop back game. While the Buckeyes defense is one of the best in the country, eight teams they faced were ranked outside the top 50 in scoring including three in the bottom 15 so it is a bit skewed. Indiana gave Miami the blueprint on how to beat Ohio St. and the Hurricanes have the personnel. Here, we play on underdogs after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (257) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Citrus Bowl Smash. All of the chaos at Michigan is fueling this line but things have settled down. The firing of head coach Sherrone Moore was obviously the big news and that could have been the beginning of the end for the roster but there have only been a handful of opt-outs and interim head coach Biff Pogi said there would be no more heading into the game. The big one is quarterback Bryce Underwood who was feared to opt out but will play and he leads an offense that was actually better than what has been said as the Wolverines finished No. 35 in EPA and they did lean more on the running game which was No. 11 in EPA. Normally this would be a tough matchup but the losses on the Texas defense are enormous. Of their top 12 tacklers, seven hit the transfer portal or opted out but they did retain their top tackler. The Longhorns are extremely thin across all three levels. The Texas offense will have Arch Manning at quarterback but lost second leading receiver DeAndre Moore and the running game lost their top three running backs to the transfer portal so Michigan has the defensive edge. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (253) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Reliaquest Bowl Winner. This is a great matchup on paper as it is strength against strength and weakness against weakness so we look at the variables surrounding it. Iowa closed the season with a pair of wins over Michigan St. and Nebraska to finish 8-4 and it could have been a lot better. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa St. by three points and its three Big Ten Conference defeats were by 12 combined points against Indiana, Oregon and USC. The first two were at home but this is a team with yet another potent defense and those three losses were against explosive offenses, similar to Vanderbilt, and they held them to 21.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes have a challenge against this Commodores offense and Diego Pavia but how much is he vested after losing the Heisman and partying across the country after. One of his biggest weapons, tight end Eli Stowers, opted out and he was the main third down target. The Hawkeyes offense struggled at times but only against excellent defenses and against below average units, they put up 37 or more points five times and Vanderbilt comes in No. 119 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (249) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Music City Bowl Dominator. The line has come down considerably with Tennessee likely not being fully vested even though it is taking place in Nashville. The Volunteers were solid on offense as they finished No. 22 in EPA but are without a big piece. The good news for Tennessee is that quarterback Joey Aguilar is not opting out and will be playing but he will be without his top wide receiver as Chris Brazzell II who led the team with 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns and this will allow Illinois to focus more on the run game and stopping Desean Bishop. Defensively is where the real concern is as the Volunteers were No. 122 in EPA after being one of the best defenses in the country last season. They are going to be without three of their top tacklers on top of it and Illinois will take advantage as quarterback Luke Altmyer will be playing and he should have his full complement as any players in the transfer portal will be allowed to play and only one is a starter anyway. Illinois has played the tougher schedule and looking at the Tennessee schedule, its best win was 5-7 Mississippi St. in overtime and that was its only win against a bowl team. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (246) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our Independence Bowl Smash. Louisiana Tech opened as a touchdown favorite and it has moved up slightly and for good reason as Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in a bowl game this season. The Chanticleers finished 6-6 with only one win against a bowl team and that was a win over Appalachian St. which was 5-7 and got into a bowl game because of a lack of eligible teams. In their five losses against bowl teams, they lost by 41, 38, 40, 5 and 49 points so they were rarely competitive. Overall, Coastal Carolina outgained only two FBS opponents and was outgained by an average of 167.6 ypg and the offense is in trouble here as starting quarterback Samari Collier is questionable and both starting tackles are in the transfer portal and will not play. Louisiana Tech is 7-5 with all five losses against bowl teams but four of those were on the road and the lone home loss was by one point. This is obviously not a home game but it is in Shreveport so the Bulldogs will have the crowd edge and they come in with the much better defense. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (244) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. With the Rams coming off a loss last Thursday and playing on a long week against a non-playoff team, they are going to be very popular and we are already seeing that with 81 percent of the money and 82 percent of the handle on them but we also have a reverse line move with the line having come down. The public is right sometimes though and this is one of those spots. Despite the loss and the current playoff projections having the Seahawks as the No. 1 seed heading into Sunday, the Rams are still the Super Bowl favorites at +425. Los Angeles is the only team in the NFL in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and as a matter of fact, it is No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. The Falcons have won two straight games, both of which have been on the road, one against the regressing Buccaneers and the other against the reeling Cardinals. The Falcons have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (431) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Cincinnati and Arizona obviously have nothing to play for and in games like this, we look at the big dog first especially when numbers actually put them in a favorable position. The Cardinals are that team. They have lost seven straight games, three of which have been by one possession bringing their season total to nine in 12 games. Arizona has won the yardage battle in six of its last 11 games and of the five exceptions, four were against current playoff teams. Overall, they have been outgained by just 18.0 ypg. Cincinnati broke out last week against Miami as it scored a season-high 45 points behind a big day from Joe Burrow. The Bengals are now favored by over a touchdown which is the most they have been favored by this season and that is certainly aggressive for a team that has a defense ranked dead last in the NFL in Defensive EPA. They are getting outgained by 82.6 ypg and have outgained only three opponents and in those games, they won the turnovers a combined 10-1. Here, we play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 45-17 (72.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (407) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. While Indianapolis has lost both games with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback, it has been competitive as it lost in the final seconds against Seattle and then last week, the final against the 49ers was skewed by a long interception returned for a touchdown in the final three minutes. The Colts playoff hopes have dimmed after a 7-1 start as they have lost six of their last seven games obviously because of the quarterback situation. They have been outgained in their last five games, all losses and this puts them in a buy low spot as they were an early sell high team once the season began after the red hot start. The Colts could actually be eliminated from the postseason should Houston win Saturday at the Chargers and while it could affect the line, it would only help it so this should be a wait and see bet but Indianapolis will still compete on Sunday against its rival. Jacksonville has been hot as after a fourth quarter meltdown against the Texans, it has won six straight games to take over first place in the AFC South but this is a tough spot after the upset in Denver. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (424) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This game could be meaningless for Pittsburgh as it will know ahead of time if Baltimore loses on Saturday against Green Bay and should that happen, the Steelers will secure the AFC North. With Lamar Jackson out, it is looking like a scenario that will happen but Green Bay has ruled out Jordan Love so it is not a guarantee. This makes it important to bet this one early because if it means nothing, the line will move and any Cleveland value will be gone. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Lions last week which was its third straight win to move one game over Baltimore with a win in hand over the Ravens and it is very unlikely the Steelers can move higher than the No. 4 seed. Cleveland is here just to play out the season at 3-12 and it is coming off a solid effort in a three-point loss against Buffalo last week and this marks the final home games of the season as the Browns close at Cincinnati next week. The defense has regressed somewhat the last few weeks but Cleveland is still No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 149-76 (66.2 percent). 10* (418) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New England bounced back from its collapse against Buffalo with a come-from-behind win against Baltimore, scoring the final 15 points. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Bills loss either this week or next week or if they win out here and next week against the Dolphins. The probability sits at 70 percent but we do not care about a win as we are dealing with the overpriced line as this one has gone from an opener of 9 points up to 13.5 points as of late Friday. It is definitely aggressive in a divisional game and New England is going to be shorthanded as it will be without five starters in addition to being down Will Campbell and Milton Williams already and they could be without backup running back TreVeyon Henderson. The Jets season cannot end any sooner but it is still about pride and playing spoiler against a division rival. New York has been leveled in its last three games by 24, 28 and 23 points so the line makes sense from that standpoint but this is about the spot and not past results. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points outgaining opponents by 1.5 or more yards per pass going up against teams outgained by 1.5 or more yards per pass. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 10* (426) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our Texas Bowl Annihilator. LSU was another Power 4 disappointment this season and head coach Brian Kelly paid the price as he was fired after a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M and the Tigers closed 2-2 after that under interim head coach Frank Wilson III. He will remain the coach in the Texas Bowl before he goes to Mississippi and the roster will be pretty decimated as he will be bringing a lot of players with him when he takes over an unknown role within the offense. The offense was bad to begin with and it will be Michael Van Buren at quarterback who will be making his fourth start. The Tigers are No. 117 in Offensive EPA and will be facing a very underrated Houston defense that started great, had a lapse and then ended great. The Houston offense got a boost as quarterback Conner Weigman announced shortly after the end of the regular season that he planned to return for his senior season after throwing for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 644 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cougars head coach Willie Fritz came into a below average situation and after going 4-8 in his first season, he led them to a 9-3 record. The opt-pouts and transfers are minimal and the Cougars are going to be extremely motivated in getting that tenth win. 10* (240) Houston Cougars