This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Primetime. New Orleans hosts longtime rival Atlanta for the 20th anniversary of the return to the Superdome following the destruction of Hurricane Katrina. The hometown Saints are going to be very popular based on that and as of Sunday late morning, two-thirds of the money is on the Saints and the line has come down from the opener with early money on the Falcons. Atlanta looked like a new team with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. but we have to decipher if it was the Falcons turning a corner or if the Packers are just that bad. It’s a little bit one both but in this matchup, the Falcons do have the better roster at the playmaker spots and their defense is actually playing exceptional as they are ranked No. 3 in Defensive Success Rate and No. 3 in both Dropback and Rushing Success Rate. Offensively, this is a game where Bijan Robinson could go off again as the Saints come in ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Success Rate and tied for last place in Rushing Success Rate. This season, teams with a rest advantage are 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS and here, we play on teams outrushing their opponents by 60 or more ypg, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 2022. 10* (279) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We have a future on Detroit with their total wins at 10.5 and while at 2-1, it has not been a good 2-1 as 0-3 was a definite possibility with the two wins coming down to the wire. The Lions have one of the best offensive rosters in the league but still have a suspect offensive line and it is the other side which has been the real concern. Detroit is No. 31 in EPA/Play with both passing and rushing being near the bottom of the list and now they are back on the road where they will be heavily bet based on their road success off a home game but those past results were with better teams. Carolina blew a big one last week against Cleveland to fall to 1-2 and the home crowd helps in a rare primetime spot. This team has been sneaky good coming off a loss as the Panthers are currently on a 12-0 run off a straight up loss. Here, we play against teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (278) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the buy low/sell high game of the day with the latter not really being a sell high spot because it is only based on record. The Vikings are 3-0 straight up and against the number and are laying double digits only because of the public perception of the opponent. This offense is atrocious and while some can be blamed on the rotating quarterbacks, it revolves around the whole unit. The Vikings are the first team to start 3-0 with under 250 total yards in each game since the 1957 Browns and they are at the bottom of every major offensive metric category this season. The Dolphins are competing for the worst team in the NFL so this is a hold your nose play like last week and they were covering the entire game until a late penalty changed momentum and a turnover did them in but we are right back on them as ugly dogs playing an overpriced team. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 46-21 ATS (68.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (269) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Bears and Case Keenum came through for us Monday night with the whole world to see and they are now again trending high even with Caleb Williams still out. Keenum had his time to shine but will go back to backup as Tyson Bagent will get the call and while we totally respect what head coach Ben Johnson will bring to the table, this is a tough spot for Chicago coming off that win and a divisional game with Green Bay on deck. It will be tough for the offense to replicate what it did against a much better defense. The Jets are 1-2 with both losses coming in games they could have won and you can see the confidence from this team that was not evident last season. The defense as mentioned is No. 7 in Rushing EPA and on the other side, Geno Smith can continue his success against a bad defense. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 43-19 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (255) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is a play We played against the Bills last Sunday and they somehow not only won, but covered the touchdown margin against the Chargers in what was a 3% win probability prior to that. They have opened the season 3-0 both straight up and against the number and are in another fade spot against a team no one wants to be behind. The Buffalo offense was not very efficient last week and a bounce back can be expected but they will be facing a good defense that has allowed only 17 ppg, 278 ypg and 5.0 yppl and while struggle is not the right term, they will be tested. The Patriots have been awful and Drake Maye has been on an even worse level which makes this the ideal spot to back him and New England as they face one of the worst defenses in the league so this is the spot to get right. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 2017. 10* (253) New England Patriots

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. To no surprise, Houston is 0-3 once again as the Texans have been one of the slowest starting teams in recent years and this time around, the offense needs a boost. This is the spot for that to happen as Dallas possesses one of the worst defenses in the NFL as it sits near the bottom of the league in ypc, ypa and yppl while allowing 387 ypg and 27 ppg. So far, 29 different players have taken at least one defensive snap for the Cowboys and while the experience might be beneficial, it shows limited top line talent. The Texans offense gets a boost with the return of Nico Collins which comes after C.J. Stroud off a horrible game. Dallas is 1-2 following a loss against Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro and that travel could have an adverse effect on the Cowboys and knowing they have a short week with Tampa Bay on Thursday. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Pittsburgh came through for us last week as a divisional home underdog and now the role is reversed for the Steelers. They outgained the Bengals 411-352 after compiling 499 yards total in their first two games combined so which team shows up? They now face a stronger defense as the Bengals made them look like the teams from 10-20 years ago and we cannot trust them on the road. Aaron Rodgers had a good game last week but his numbers are below average as he is completing just 58.4 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Cleveland is 2-1 after back-to-back wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay by a combined seven points so this record could be worse. They have been outgained in all three games and will not be the popular play with this being similar to Philadelphia on Monday night when the vast majority of the money was on the Eagles and as of Tuesday, it is a similar story for the Steelers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 2017. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Obviously, the Bears are shorthanded on offense with Caleb Williams out and they will turn to Case Keenum who is seeing his first action since 2023 and with that, the line has not moved since it was announced on Monday. We are not sure what to expect from the Chicago offense but we will see a veteran presence and the offense will be relying heavily on the run games. The Philadelphia defense is dead last in the league in in time to pressure so they are not getting to the quarterback. Head coach Ben Johnson will have a solid game plan. The Eagles offense has not been lighting it up and have played two poor defenses. Philadelphia has issues of their own as the interior offensive line is an absolute mess, which is creating problems in pass protection and the running game. Tight end Dallas Goedert, who has played a big role early on, will miss this game because of a knee injury. Johnson has coached 21 total games off a SU loss, both as offensive coordinator with the Lions and coach of Bears and is 15-6 straight up and ATS. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (490) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Late Powerhouse. Arizona upset the Chargers in the season opener and the question is, was it because the Cardinals have potential or was it based on the Chargers being bad. We think it is the former despite Arizona getting rolled by Seattle last week but that was a tough spot. Now they play a second straight divisional game at an inflated price and road divisional dogs in the first three months of the season when playing in optimal weather have cashed 56 percent of the time since 2003. The 49ers are and have been a very public team and going back the last three seasons, they are 2-9 ATS after scoring 30 or more points with some of that due to the line in that next game being inflated to counter public money. They have looked great and once again, the linesmakers have to adjust. The Cardinals fall into the same situation as the Chargers as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (481) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Washington is our first ugly dog on Sunday as the public is not surprisingly all over the Seahawks. The Commanders are 0-2 and are now without quarterback Jayden Daniels who once again dislocated his elbow and they will again rely on Marcus Mariota who was forced into service against Dallas and was actually really good. He now faces a much better defense but has had a week of preparation and he is not going to asked to do everything. Seattle is 2-0 with a win over New England after Sam Darnold went down and then a trouncing of Arizona last week. This line has gone up five points since opening at 2.5 and we aren’t sure if Daniels is worth that but 79 percent of the tickets and 75 percent of the money thinks so. Going to a quarterback with little to no experience is one thing but backing a veteran is a non-issue. Sam Darnold is likely to return so wait on this line as it will go up even more. Here, we play on home teams in conference games, off 2 straight division games. This situation is 37-15 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (462) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Early Attraction. We never thought the Chargers would be considered an ugly dog but here they are. They have been hot garbage, losing outright to the Cardinals and Raiders and they are already considered cooked by some. We aren’t going there just yet and this is the ideal spot to back them as this is as contrarian as it gets not only playing on a team that is 0-2 but going against the other side that seems unbeatable. The Chargers are just the second team in 60 years to lose their first two games when favored by at least 6.5 points with the other team being the 2022 Bengals which won game three and eventually went to the AFC Championship. Buffalo has looked great through two games, defeating two solid teams while covering and in this instance, they are playing with extra rest, another contrarian aspect. Desperation can be a good thing. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in September games. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (477) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. The Steelers are coming off another poor offensive effort, this time against the Patriots and they come in as another ugly dog that no one will be on. Pittsburgh still has a stifling defense that plays even better at home and the stop unit allowed only 13 points to the Patriots offense after allowing 13 points to the Falcons. We are banking on that defense like it has stepped up in the past and the Steelers have relished this spot as they are 12-2-2 ATS as a home underdog in division games dating back to 2000. The Bengals are 2-0 thanks to the Buccaneers giving it away with four turnovers and they are outgained by 107 yards to the Texans. What is more telling where the sharp money is however as 80 percent of the handle and 93 percent of the money is on the Bengals yet the line has not moved since last Sunday night. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (464) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs and Dolphins have also started the season in opposite directions at 2-0 and 0-2 respectively. This one has extra special appeal as the Dolphins opened the season with two games on the road while Kansas City opened with two primetime home games and now hit the road in the heat and humidity. They are the public side which is no surprise and the line had not moved all week until Friday morning when the line actually came down a half-point across the board. The Dolphins were not competitive in either game on the scoreboard but they actually outgained the Raiders 5.9 to 4.3 in yppl and while we are not comparing the Chiefs to the Raiders, the pointspread is the greatest equalizer. In the first nine games of the regular season, home dogs of seven or more are 23-4-2 ATS since 2022. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points after playing a game at home going up against an opponent after a two game road trip. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. How bad is Atlanta? The Falcons are 0-2 and have scored only 16 points following their game this past Sunday where they managed only three points against Carolina, the same Carolina team that allowed 59 points last week. Quarterback Cooper Rush is clearly not a starter in this league while Jack Strand, who was a preseason darling, threw a pick six on his first NFL pass., Now they finally get Michael Penix Jr. back as he was named the starter and he looks to jumpstart and offense that has made history as the Falcons are the 4th team since NFL Play-by-Play was first tracked in 1978 without a redzone drive through two games. All of this adds up to value. Green Bay got away with one against the Jets as the Packers managed only 199 total yards and averaged only 4.7 yppl. They have zero running game while Jordan Love is completing only 52 percent of his passes as he is working behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and now they lost right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and their top two left guards, starter Aaron Banks and backup Donovan Jennings on Sunday. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first month of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2017. 10* (301) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a very public play with 74 percent of the money on the Rams but the public side gets their wins too. The Rams are coming off the dreadful appearance in Australia but have had time to adjust to the time difference and travel time, which we saw with San Francisco yesterday. This is the exceptional bounceback spot and we now have the number to work with. The Giants came through for us last week on Sunday night in a big home divisional win and because this is only Week Two, it is not a letdown spot but a brutal travel situation and having to face a team off a mini-bye loss. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a home underdog, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Chiefs are back as we all witnessed what they did against Denver. No they are not. Patrick Mahomes orchestrated the offense similar to the Chiefs of the past few seasons. No he didn’t. Kenneth Walker was the big bright spot for the Chiefs and he is going to play a big part this season but part of the opener as a whole was that Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. The Colts are no top defense but it will be better than that. Indianapolis had no chance against Baltimore and that puts them in a favorable spot as teams coming off an ATS loss by seven or more points in the opener and are a dog Week Two are 39-15-1 ATS (72.2 percent) since 2014. Additionally, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent) since 2017. 10* (277) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. There were many disappointments last week with the Chargers ranking in the top three of that category with Los Angeles counterpart the Rams and Broncos being there and this is a great bounce back spot. It was not a fluke loss for the Chargers, they never looked like they should have won that game and while that might sound concerning going forward, great teams respond and we think they fit that category. The new Mike McDaniel offense was expected to show something but as he called it, it was disjointed and uncomfortable but we see a huge turnaround here. The Raiders opened with a win but was not overly impressive, outgaining Miami by just 31 yards. Kirk Cousins was 21-30 but averaged 5.3 ypa which is pretty awful and was No. 29 of 32 quarterbacks that had 10 or more snaps. Here, we play against team off a home win by 10 points or more, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10*(268) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Broncos could not have looked worse last week. As mentioned in one other game analysis, Denver had 28 missed tackles which included 144 yards after contact as its 29.8% missed tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, and their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. This is fixable, especially when it is only Week Two and heading home, this problem will be shored up. Bouncing back from that loss is most important but there is revenge at hand as Jacksonville came in here last season and rolled to a 34-20 win but Denver won the yards 445-346. Jacksonville looked in mid-season form in its win against Cleveland but the Browns are already candidates for the worst team in the league. Now they go to altitude in Wee Two (last year it was in December) and here, we play against road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 27-14 (65.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (270) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Early Attraction. The first inkling here is to take Houston after its tough loss to the Bills and fading the Bengals off their win over Tampa Bay. The big issue here is that this line has not moved despite the status of Joe Burrow who is now considered questionable with back tightness but there is a very unlikely chance that he will not play as this is the typical cat and mouse play. The Texans opener against the Bills was a chance to open with a big win but the defense could not stand up and the public is expecting a bounce back as 76 percent of the money is on Houston yet, no line move. The Texans are down to a skeleton crew at wide receiver with Nico Collins being ruled out and now Xavier Hutchinson is the top guy. No interest in that. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (261) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The first overreaction comes in a matchup between Green Bay and New York and on opposite ends. The Packers held a 22-10 lead in the third quarter against the Vikings before the bottom fell out with 29 unanswered points from Minnesota and now the season is already over for Green Bay. Admittedly, their offensive line is a liability and faces a tough front from the Jets but one that is unlikely to blitz 83 percent of the snaps which the Vikings did. New York played a very efficient game but that was against Tennessee with a new staff, new systems and apparently not a new culture. We were high on Tennessee coming in to the season and still could be sans the one game but the Jets are not as good as that opener looked. The Packers rebound. Here, we play against home teams outscored by opponents by four or more last season, in weeks 1-3, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore was pegged as a favorite in the AFC to win the conference and it played the part in Week One and now the Ravens come in overpriced as the injury bug has already hit. Zay Flowers has been ruled out and two offensive line starters are doubtful yet Baltimore is favored north of a touchdown. Adding to the Baltimore drama, the NFL continues to ruin the NFL as the Ravens have a game in Brazil against the Cowboys next week to add to their distractions. New Orleans fell behind 21-0 last week in Detroit and nearly pulled off the win and it does not get easier here. We love the resiliency of this team and are in a spot to make more noise. We know Lamar Jackson is 25-3 against the NFC but that record dips to .500 ATS and being shorthanded is not ideal. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that finished last season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in weeks 1-3. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Buffalo pulled off the come-from-behind win over Houston on the road and now the Bills head home for their first ever game in the new Highmark Stadium but we are not playing them because of that as a new stadium isn’t really a motivator. Buffalo is simply the better team and has a huge home field advantage no matter what stadium they are in. The defense could be considered a concern as they allowed 31 points and 381 total yards but Houston ran 70 plays and only averaged 5.4 yppl while the Buffalo offense averaged 8.2 yppl with a +2.8 yppl differential. Conversely, Detroit was outgained 469-369 against New Orleans but snuck out the overtime win. The Lions were outgained 5.8 to 5.1 yppl so it was not a great performance at home and now they have to hit the road on a short week after an overtime game so they are in a very tough position. Here, we play against road teams after a win by six or less points going up against an opponent after scoring 35 points or more last game. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2022 with an average scoring differential of +10.8 ppg. 10* (104) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have not been able to solve the Dallas Cowboys as they are 2-16 over the last 18 meetings so it comes as no surprise that they open the season as home underdogs. While we do not think they are going to take the league by storm, we do like the direction they are going as last season was a disappointing 4-13 result but there were good signs as long as they can stay healthy, namely Jaxson Dart. Last season, three of their four wins were by 17 points or more while seven losses were by one possession so things should have been better. Then there is Jim Harbaugh who is ready to change this culture. Dallas is again getting props to make a run at the NFC East as it finished with one of the best offenses in the NFL but the defense was atrocious. The Cowboys made numerous changes on that side of the ball but it could take time to come together. 10* (480) New York Giants

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is another instance where we are fading a bad defense and an overvalued public team. The Packers snuck into the playoffs last season but were one and done after losing their final four regular season games and now they start the season with a lack of a running game with the absence of Josh Jacobs. Defensively they will be without Micah Parsons for at least four games and that will be felt as they face a new quarterback for the Vikings in Kyler Murray and what better way for a career resurrection than to be taught by Kevin O’Connell, just go back a couple years and look no further than Sam Darnold. The Vikings have the better defense and the goal is to get pressure on Jordan Love without needing to blitz and they should accomplish that. This number did a flip but there is still value as in this type of divisional game, the number should be three. 10* (478) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Chicago had one of its best seasons in recent memory as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. The Bears were very fortunate as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. Also, seven wins came when trailing under two minutes. We expect regression especially with a defense that is not good and already dealing with injuries. The last time we saw Carolina, it nearly pulled off a stunner against the Rams in the playoffs and the Panthers open the season as home underdogs, a role they have succeeded in as they are 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2024 season. Another great value play. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. We have seen this line move a point since opening and it is now over the key number of three. We are high on Cincinnati this season as we bet its team total over 10.5 with the main reasons being that they will be facing the easiest schedule along with going up against the easiest projected offenses in total. This is not one of those situations as Tampa Bay is one of the few quality opponents even though it finished on a 2-7 run last season and the contrarian aspect of that includes the Buccaneers finishing last season going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games. The Bengals fell short as well because Joe Burrow again missed a ton of time and they had one of the worst defenses which they tried to fix this offseason. However this is a wait and see so we will grab the value and this number easily could go up more close to game time as it will not be going down. 10* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Wednesday Kickoff Winner. The season opener is a rematch of the Super Bowl from last season, won by Seattle 29-13, marking only the third time in NFL history that there is a rematch of the Super Bowl in Week One. There have been 11 Super Bowl rematches in history with the champion going 8-3 in those games. The Seahawks start their title defense at home while laying a shorter number than what they were favored by last February so we are catching value. The Patriots are coming off an unexpected run to the Super Bowl after going 14-3 and dethroning the Bills in the AFC East and coming even close to that is unlikely. They played one of the easiest schedules last season and one big reason for their success was the fact they went 9-0 on the road which is the best in NFL history so they will regress when leaving home. Eight of those 14 regular season wins were by one possession so they were lucky in that regard while also being fortunate with injuries, finishing with the sixth fewest adjusted games to injury. Under head coach Mike McDonald, Seattle is 21-2 as a favorite. 10* (452) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LX Side Winner. We have faded New England in all three playoff games and got burned twice but now it is time to back the Patriots in an overinflated line and over a key number. The underdog has been the way to go recently and it makes perfect sense as the public loves the favorites which is the case again this year with the Seahawks getting the majority of the early money. Since 2004, underdogs have gone 15-7 ATS including five straight covers and while the contrarian in us likes to fade a streak like that, not when it is a public one. Going back a little further and going number specific, underdogs of three points or more are 13-4 ATS since 2001-02. The matchup seems to be the reason the Seahawks are the public team and their defense is great but we are still not entirely sold on the offense facing a strong New England defense. This will be the fourth straight elite defense the Patriots will face and while they have not been able to put up the points, the defense did its work and with Josh McDaniels looking at what the Rams have been able to do, they should have a solid plan.  The weather factored into both sides for sure so the raw stats are somewhat skewed. The strength of schedule is another concern (guilty here) with the Patriots possessing the easiest in the NFL but they have taken care of business and that is what matters. According to PFR, the schedule was last at -4.5 and going back in Super Bowl history, teams with a strength of schedule at -4 or worse have actually gone 3-1. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less in the last game going up against an opponent after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 51-24 (68 percent) since 2021. 10* (110) New England Patriots

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC Championship Winner. The Rams have survived two scares on the road to make it to the NFC Championship and after being favored in those games, they are rightfully underdogs here but they can make a case of being the better team. This will be a case of recency bias as everyone has seen how the Rams have struggled the last two weeks and how dominant Seattle has looked of late with its eight straight wins and now laying a short number. The Seahawks had no issues with the 49ers last week as the injuries definitely played a part. The defense continues to lead the way as they moved ahead of Houston for the No. 1 spot in EPA but let’s not forget the Los Angeles defense that is No. 7 in EPA and the difference in this will be on the offense end. The Rams were the only team in the NFL to finish in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and they are No. 2 in offense coming into this week with Seattle sitting No. 14 and the Rams will be in the Seattle backfield quite often and Sam Darnold will be hounded all night. The contrarian aspect of this game is that the Rams are playing their third straight road playoff game and those teams in the past have not fared well while Seattle has won 11 straight home playoff games (excluding COVID year) so we buck both. 10* (103) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Championship Winner. It was a rough Divisional Round with a bad call on Houston as C.J. Stroud looked clueless and a bad beat on the Rams which looked as though they would get the cover until the miracle Caleb Williams touchdown to force overtime. The Patriots cruised through two games at home against the Chargers and Texans and now they hit the road as an overvalued favorite which is due to the quarterback situation with Denver. Bo Nix is out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle and it will be Jarret Stidham who is making just his fifth career start and it is not as bad as people may think. Nix is not an elite starter in the NFL but the line move based on his absence is showing that he is so that is incorrect. Stidham will have had the whole week to prepare as opposed to being thrown into the fire and he has been in this system the whole time under Sean Payton. Three backup quarterbacks have made postseason starts at home and all three have won so home field is huge. This is obviously the big talking point but no one is talking about the Denver defense that is No. 8 in EPA and facing Drake Maye making his first road playoff start. Since 1975, home underdogs of four points or more are 9-0 ATS in the playoffs including a Carolina cover this season. 10* (102) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams got away with one against Carolina and the Panthers certainly had their number this season and now they remain on the road in another bad weather game and one that will be much colder. That could have an adverse effect on Los Angeles but Matthew Stafford is 2-3 when playing in a temperature of 30 points or less. Stafford is 4-0 in his playoff career as a favorite and teams coming off a win but who failed to cover and not coming off a bye  are 21-12 ATS since 2003-04 including 8-2 ATS since 2020-21. The top five teams in the Luck Ratings remain alive in the playoffs and coming in at No. 3 is Chicago as the Bears did it yet again. As mentioned last week, Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter and that total went up to seven. They were down 21-3 and outscored Green Bay 25-6 in the fourth quarter including the final 15 points in the final 4:18 of the game. Sure, they can do it again but now face the only remaining team that is in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA. Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 in the Divisional Round since 2003 including 3-22 since 2011. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (393) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. New England passed its first test as it was able to breakaway from the Chargers for a 16-3 win thanks to the defense that allowed just 207 yards against an offensive line that was completely dominated. The offense they face this week is not that much better as far EPA goes but the offensive line is healthy and a much better pass blocking unit, finishing No. 5 in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Drake Maye is the story and in his career he has faced only five winning teams at the time of the game at home, going 2-3 including 1-1 this season with the Chargers being the win. The 16 points scored on offense is an issue not only facing the best defense in the league but since 2011, teams are 4-9 in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 points in a playoff victory. Houston has won 10 straight games which started from that improbable comeback against Jacksonville where it outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter. This comes after starting the season 0-3 and the Texans are one of only seven teams to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start and they are actually the only team to now do it twice. Defense can take over a game and we saw that last week in Pittsburgh as the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA team dominated the Steelers by allowing 175 yards and just six points while scoring two defensive touchdowns. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 2021. 10* (387) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arguably, Pittsburgh should not be here as it got into the postseason, and a home playoff game to go with it, because of a missed 44-yard field goal as time expired but a second life can be revitalizing, especially for a team that is on a 0-6 playoff losing streak which started in 2016. The Steelers are fortunate for sure but get a good matchup at home and while facing a red hot team does not seem ideal, it is just fine. Houston is on a roll and the Texans fans love the momentum but watch what you ask for as teams entering the postseason on a nine or more game winning streak are just 6-19 ATS since 2002 as these teams are essentially overvalued every time as the public loves these big winning streaks but they do not understand the value taken away in the pointspread because of it. We all know the stat, or at least you should, that going back to 1992, the Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football including 12-0 under head coach Mike Tomlin (does not include the 2020 game against Washington when the game actually started at 5:00 PM ET and with no fans in the stands). Bring in Aaron Rodgers who is 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS when playing at home on Monday Night Football. He falls into a champion system as well as since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 38-17-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (386) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Wild Card Game of the Year. The public loves the Patriots here as they blew through the league by going from a 4-13 record last season to a 14-3 record this season. Playing the easiest schedule in the NFL, not only this season but it ranked as the third-easiest schedule since 1978 and the second-easiest in the 21st century based on opponent performance. As a favorite of three points or more or more, New England is 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 17 ppg but the only team with a winning record in those games was, you guessed it, there was not one as the best team was Carolina. This just goes back to the schedule the Patriots have faced as they defeated only one team with a winning record and that was Buffalo who also returned the favor and the only other opponent they faced with a winning record was Pittsburgh which resulted in a loss. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. The Chargers rested last week and are ready to go with an elite defense that allows the fewest 20-yard or more pass plays and an offense featuring Justin Herbert who is 18-12 ATS as an underdog. Here, we play against teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half of the last game. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (383) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Packers enter this game as a slight favorite despite coming in on a four-game losing streak but that comes with an asterisk as they rested starters last week, making health more important than momentum and we buy into that decision. One big health issue is the return of tackle Zach Tom who has been out since Week 15. That will help Jordan Love who is fully healthy and comes in ranked No. 2 in Quarterback EPA/Play (Caleb Williams No. 13) and the Packers rely on explosives which is what the Bears defense loves to allow and they will have a big edge. Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. This season, the Packers are 0-6-1 ATS when catching the majority of the money and 6-3 ATS when their opponent is the public side and as of Thursday afternoon, Chicago is getting 71 percent of the money and that is not going to flip when the real public money comes pouring in on the Bears. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (377) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Baltimore comes in as the road favorite and we have seen the number go up and down but it remains north of the key number of 3. The Ravens are laying because Lamar Jackson is playing and while this typically would be a huge edge, he has not been healthy for a long time and his performance is way down from last season. The Ravens lost the first meeting at home by five points as a 5.5-point favorite and we are not seeing a proper line adjustment in what is a heavily underdog dominated season. The underdog is 30-12-3 ATS since 2005 including 25-7-3 ATS during the regular season and head coach Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to a 13-2 record when scoring 10 points or less in their previous game including a 2-0 record this season, the win in Baltimore being one of those after losing to Buffalo 26-7. Here. We play against road teams off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (350) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another game meaningless for both sides and namely the Packers as they are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC and their goal is to get out of here unscathed. Green Bay is resting mostly every significant starter to stay healthy as the learned the tough lesson last season. The one downfall is that the Packers could enter the postseason with no momentum as they have already lost their last three games but entering the playoffs healthy is more important. Minnesota had a lost season as it went through a 1-6 stretch after opening 3-2 and playoff hopes were lost but the Vikings have responded with four straight wins and a victory here means a winning season and that is big going into the offseason. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings defense is No. 1 in EPA and now they get to square off against Clayton Tune. Here, we play on teams off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (336) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New Orleans is closing in on a strong ending to the season as it has won four straight games heading into the season finale. The Saints are 6-10 following the winning streak but two of those wins were against the Buccaneers and Panthers, which have been as inconsistent as any teams in the league, and the Jets and Titans, two of the three worst teams in the league according to Sagarin. They now face a team that has also shown recent signs of consistency as the Falcons have won three straight games following a win over the Rams on Monday night. The best they can finish is 8-9 which would put them in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South but tiebreakers have already eliminated them. Both teams would love to go out with decent winning streaks but we give the edge to the home team that is much healthier. Here, we play against underdogs after four or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season. This situation is 57-22 (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (358) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Neither team has anything to play for and it is Cleveland that played its most important game in the second half of the season, defeating Pittsburgh and spoiling the Steelers shot at clinching last week. The Browns are now back on the road and were in a mismatch to begin with but coming off that win spells letdown and the added road struggles make Cleveland a big fade. The Browns have been solid at home, or at least competitive against the number, as they are 16-10 ATS over the last three seasons but on the road over the same stretch they are 6-18 ATS. The Bengals have been prolific on offense since Joe Burrow came back from his injury with the exception of the 24-0 loss to Baltimore. The defense has improved as well as the Bengals were No. 32 in EPA through the first half but have shown positive adjustments. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.5 or less passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Winner. This game will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle has put itself into position for the top seed as it has won six straight games following a win in Carolina last week, breaking open a 3-3 game at halftime with the defense leading the way, allowing only 139 total yards. The Seahawks remain on the road where they are 7-1 with the lone loss coming at Los Angeles against the Rams by only two points and this is the reason they are the favorites. The 49ers have also won six straight games while covering all of those and while that would suggest a fade, not at this number. The 49ers have been outgained five times this season but four of those were on the road and the one instance at home was against the Rams by only eight total yards. San Francisco won the first meeting by four points but it was a much bigger domination as they outgained the Seahawks by 154 yards but it was the red zone inefficiency along with penalty issues that kept it close. Here, we play against teams after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (362) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. With the Rams coming off a loss last Thursday and playing on a long week against a non-playoff team, they are going to be very popular and we are already seeing that with 81 percent of the money and 82 percent of the handle on them but we also have a reverse line move with the line having come down. The public is right sometimes though and this is one of those spots. Despite the loss and the current playoff projections having the Seahawks as the No. 1 seed heading into Sunday, the Rams are still the Super Bowl favorites at +425. Los Angeles is the only team in the NFL in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and as a matter of fact, it is No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. The Falcons have won two straight games, both of which have been on the road, one against the regressing Buccaneers and the other against the reeling Cardinals. The Falcons have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (431) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New England bounced back from its collapse against Buffalo with a come-from-behind win against Baltimore, scoring the final 15 points. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Bills loss either this week or next week or if they win out here and next week against the Dolphins. The probability sits at 70 percent but we do not care about a win as we are dealing with the overpriced line as this one has gone from an opener of 9 points up to 13.5 points as of late Friday. It is definitely aggressive in a divisional game and New England is going to be shorthanded as it will be without five starters in addition to being down Will Campbell and Milton Williams already and they could be without backup running back TreVeyon Henderson. The Jets season cannot end any sooner but it is still about pride and playing spoiler against a division rival. New York has been leveled in its last three games by 24, 28 and 23 points so the line makes sense from that standpoint but this is about the spot and not past results. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points outgaining opponents by 1.5 or more yards per pass going up against teams outgained by 1.5 or more yards per pass. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 10* (426) New York Jets

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Cincinnati and Arizona obviously have nothing to play for and in games like this, we look at the big dog first especially when numbers actually put them in a favorable position. The Cardinals are that team. They have lost seven straight games, three of which have been by one possession bringing their season total to nine in 12 games. Arizona has won the yardage battle in six of its last 11 games and of the five exceptions, four were against current playoff teams. Overall, they have been outgained by just 18.0 ypg. Cincinnati broke out last week against Miami as it scored a season-high 45 points behind a big day from Joe Burrow. The Bengals are now favored by over a touchdown which is the most they have been favored by this season and that is certainly aggressive for a team that has a defense ranked dead last in the NFL in Defensive EPA. They are getting outgained by 82.6 ypg and have outgained only three opponents and in those games, they won the turnovers a combined 10-1. Here, we play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 45-17 (72.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (407) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. While Indianapolis has lost both games with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback, it has been competitive as it lost in the final seconds against Seattle and then last week, the final against the 49ers was skewed by a long interception returned for a touchdown in the final three minutes. The Colts playoff hopes have dimmed after a 7-1 start as they have lost six of their last seven games obviously because of the quarterback situation. They have been outgained in their last five games, all losses and this puts them in a buy low spot as they were an early sell high team once the season began after the red hot start. The Colts could actually be eliminated from the postseason should Houston win Saturday at the Chargers and while it could affect the line, it would only help it so this should be a wait and see bet but Indianapolis will still compete on Sunday against its rival. Jacksonville has been hot as after a fourth quarter meltdown against the Texans, it has won six straight games to take over first place in the AFC South but this is a tough spot after the upset in Denver. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (424) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This game could be meaningless for Pittsburgh as it will know ahead of time if Baltimore loses on Saturday against Green Bay and should that happen, the Steelers will secure the AFC North. With Lamar Jackson out, it is looking like a scenario that will happen but Green Bay has ruled out Jordan Love so it is not a guarantee. This makes it important to bet this one early because if it means nothing, the line will move and any Cleveland value will be gone. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Lions last week which was its third straight win to move one game over Baltimore with a win in hand over the Ravens and it is very unlikely the Steelers can move higher than the No. 4 seed. Cleveland is here just to play out the season at 3-12 and it is coming off a solid effort in a three-point loss against Buffalo last week and this marks the final home games of the season as the Browns close at Cincinnati next week. The defense has regressed somewhat the last few weeks but Cleveland is still No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 149-76 (66.2 percent). 10* (418) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. We played against Houston last week as it survived a scare against the Raiders and pulled out a 23-21 win to make it seven straight wins while snapping a four-game ATS winning streak. The Texans were likely caught looking ahead to this game and took Las Vegas lightly as this is a big game where they can leapfrog the Chargers with a win and move from No. 7 to No. 6 or possibly even No. 5 should the Bills go down against the Eagles. Houston still has a shot at the AFC South albeit unlikely with the Jaguars up one game and closing with the slumping Colts and the Titans. The Chargers are back home following a pair of road wins to make it four straight victories and they can still take the AFC West with a win here and then a win at Denver in the season finale next week and they still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference. They will be the public side here because they are at home and playing with revenge from a playoff loss last season where Justin Herbert tossed four interceptions. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after seven or more consecutive wins. This situation is 36-19 (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (411) Houston Texans

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Christmas Enforcer. We have seen this line tip over the key touchdown number which was expected as the Lions are still alive in the NFC playoff picture so it is must win time. The likelihood of making the postseason is slim as the chances are at four percent and the spread has steadily climbed based on the must win scenario. This is a team that is completely out of sorts and it is a good matchup for the Vikings offense. The defense has fallen apart as the Lions are now No. 20 in EPA and they have allowed 27 or more points in five straight games, the first time since 2022 that this has happened. Minnesota will turn to Max Brosmer at quarterback and he was functional last week in his limited action and now comes first action at home as his three appearances this season have all been on the road. Here, we play against teams revenging a home loss against an opponent, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 33-8 (80.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (404) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. San Francisco was rooting hard for Seattle on Thursday night as with the Seahawks win, the 49ers now control their own destiny in the NFC West as if they win out, the division is theirs even if all three teams finish at 13-4 as their own the tiebreakers. This is a line that opened at 7 and then came all the way down to 4.5 following the Colts performance against the Seahawks Sunday night then steadily has been back up and down. The reason for the big early line move was the positive results from Philip Rivers and apparently, some are expecting a repeat but that is a lot to be asked and we do not see it. Look for a lot more of Jonathan Taylor and despite the injuries on the 49ers defense, they are still in the top half of the league in EPA/Rushing. San Francisco has won four straight games but only Carolina was a team not struggling but we can start putting the Colts in that category with four straight losses. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points going up against an opponent off two consecutive road losses. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Ravens snapped a two-game losing streak within the division with a must-needed win over the Bengals to get back to .500 and keep pace with the Steelers in the AFC North as they are one game back. It is a scenario where if they win this week and the Steelers upset the Lions, next week would be meaningless to both teams with the Week 18 matchup deciding the division. The Steelers are in a tough spot though and Baltimore could definitely use this one with this being their last home game of the season and heading to Green Bay which is also playoff hunting as a loss here could be detrimental. The P:atriots are off a brutal loss and came back down to earth after a nine-game winning streak and now we can see how the response will be and it is likely unfavorable. The perfect 6-0 road record is also a contrarian go against. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a win against a division rival. This situation is 36-12 (75 percent) since 2016. 10* (114) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This one could not be more of a public game as late in the week, the 91 percent of the money on Houston is the highest bet side and this is officially the time to sell high as we fell flat with Arizona last week in a similar spot but this one is much better based on the opponent. The Texans have won six straight games while covering four straight and this is not a good combination as teams in this spot and listed as double-digit favorites are just 2-7 ATS. Despite the run, the Texans are in the final Wild Card spot in the AFC and will need help from the Jaguars to get to the top of the AFC South. The Raiders are not good and coming off a shutout as a double-digit underdog, no one in their right mind will be backing them this week but this is the time to do so. Teams that were shut out in their previous game are 35-17 ATS since 2015 including 5-0 ATS this season after Washington last week. Here, we play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 44-17 (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (127) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Lions are on the brink as they are off a loss at Los Angeles last week as they could not hold on to a 24-14 lead as they allowed 20 unanswered points from the end of the first half through the third quarter. Detroit is now on the outside looking in as it is a game and a half out so winning the final three games is likely necessary to go along with some help and this is the final home game of the season. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 23-9 ATS off of a loss and this includes 15 straight wins with the Lions covering 14 of those games, the lone exception four weeks ago against the Giants in the overtime win where they could not get the margin. The Steelers dominated Miami on Monday night as it went up 28-3 before a couple late garbage touchdowns and is now in a tough travel spot on a short week and a loss here is not deadly with Cleveland on deck. Here, we play on favorites allowing 335 or more ypg, after allowing 450 or more ypg over their last 2 games. This situation is 34-2 (94.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (126) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Denver did it again as it took out Green Bay by eight points to make it 11 straight wins, nine by one possession and 10 of 12 overall victories by one score. To no surprise, the Broncos are No. 1 in the Luck Ratings and have played the No. 31 ranked schedule and while a win over Green Bay was nice, this is the first time all season they are playing a likely playoff team following a win and this run is about to come to an end. A team that is 12-2 and is ranked No. 11 in Offensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive EPA is a complete aberration. The Jaguars have been rolling as they have won five straight games following the fourth quarter debacle against the Texans and they will be unpopular here based on this number. And despite it being small, teams winning 11 or more games in a row are 14-36-2 ATS. Here, we play on road teams after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in the last game. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (123) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo and New England played one of the most entertaining games of the season last week with Buffalo coming out on top after falling behind 21-0 to pull within one game of the Patriots in the AFC East. That could continue the momentum of now three straight wins or provide a perfect letdown spot and the latter is where we are going as teams coming off emotional massive comebacks tend to flatten out. Cleveland has lost three straight games and six of seven after getting blown out on the road at Chicago but it is now back home where it plays its best even though it has lost three straight all with different scenarios that led to defeat where it could have been different. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 81-52-3 ATS (61 percent) since 2020, while double-digit underdogs are 27-16-1 ATS (63 percent) over that stretch. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.0 or more rushing ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Saturday Primetime. This is another game, similar to the Rams and Seahawks divisional game, where we have seen this line flip back and forth and the most current move was going from Chicago to -1.5 to +1.5 in the early afternoon of Thursday as DK. Green Bay is coming off a loss at Denver last week which now puts it a half-game behind Chicago in the NFC North and a loss here could cost them the division. Many are going to expect the bounce back based on the loss and how good of a team Green Bay is this time of year as it is 21-5 under head coach Matt LaFleur in the month of December. Series bettors will not like this one as the Bears are 1-12 in their last 13 meetings with the Packers. The Bears bounced back with blowout win over Cleveland to retake first place in the division and this is the start of a brutal stretch for Chicago as after this, it is San Francisco and Detroit to close the season. Turnovers have been a big part of the success and while we cannot handicap them, we do know they are contagious. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 47-23 (67.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (104) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Some might consider this is a false favorite but Seattle is getting some extra love for home field and we have actually seen a reverse line move as this opened Sunday night with the Rams a 1.5-point favorite and then flipped not much later and continued to go back and forth all the way through Wednesday morning before now finally settling in and this is with 74 percent of the money on the Rams according to DK. The Seahawks have won four straight games and were taken to the final seconds last week against Philip Rivers and the Colts and that result may be making the public a little gun-shy in backing Seattle this week. The defense at home will be the difference here as the Seahawks are No. 2 in EPA/Passing and No. 1 in EPA/Rushing. The Rams have won eight of their last nine games and are currently the No. 1 rated team in the league as well as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +320. They won the first meeting by two points and never trailed despite getting outgained by 165 yards but were +3 in turnovers. Here, we play against road teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in week 16 or later in the season. This situation is 77-23 (77 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +8.6 ppg. 10* (102) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Baltimore last week to overtake first place in the AFC North and with the Ravens win on Sunday, there is an even bigger sense of urgency with a game at Detroit on deck. The Steelers have the big home field edge facing Miami and Tua Tagovailoa in brutally cold weather. They have not lost at home on Monday night since 1991 as they have won 22 consecutive Monday home games and Pittsburgh is 42-8 under Mike Tomlin in home games against teams with a losing record. The Dolphins have won four straight games to remain in the playoff hunt but it has been a soft schedule with the last three games and over this stretch, they have forced 10 turnovers. Miami is 0-11 under Mike McDaniel in away or neutral field games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (484) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Dallas is coming off a tough loss in Detroit as it outgained its fourth straight opponent but unlike the first three, it came away with a loss. The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East as the Eagles are reeling with three straight losses and just a game and a half back with a very favorable schedule. This is the first of two home games to end the home slate and close with road games at the Commanders and the Giants so a team that was left for dead is in the mix. Minnesota has had a rough season with good expectations but injuries have taken their toll and they are in an awful spot here. The Vikings are coming off a very unique situation as they became the first team since 1992 to be shutout in a game and then the very next week, shutout their opponent. Now they have to hit the road which is not ideal as teams coming off a shutout win and hitting the road are 21-36-2 ATS over the last 20 seasons. Here, we play against road teams off a win by 21 points or more as a home underdog after the first month of the season. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Despite the win last week over the Cowboys, the Lions are still on the outside looking in at the postseason as they are a game out, trailing the Bears and 49ers by one game, both of which have likely wins on Sunday so this is a big one. Detroit is coming off a three-game homestand where it went 2-1 with the loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving being huge and they close with three of four on the road and while winning is of their importance, we are concerned about the cover and this number is going the other way which makes this playable. Head coach Dan Campbell is 17-3 ATS as an underdog of four points or more with Jared Goff at quarterback. The Rams are in a race for the division with the Seahawks and 49ers all only one game apart and they have the former on deck for Thursday. This team is now the Super Bowl favorite and a big reason why the line is moving. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 4 or more ppg, after 3 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 63-23 (73.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (477) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Cincinnati is coming off a brutal loss at Buffalo last week which basically ruined any shot of the division even though the Bengals could be in a good spot based on schedule. They are coming off a pair of road games in the return of Joe Burrow so this will be his first home game since coming back. The issue is he is not fully vested based on his presser this week and he still has to deal with the defense that is dead last in the NFL in EPA. Over the last 10 games, they have allowed 26 or more points nine times with the lone exception being giving up 14 points to this same Baltimore team on Thanksgiving but that was due to five Ravens turnovers. The Ravens are coming off a three-game homestand and that is fine as this team needed to get out and are now a game out of first place. The schedule sets up horrible with New England next week as their final home game and then two road games to close against Green Bay and Pittsburgh making this one a must. Here, we play on road teams with a losing record in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against an opponent. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (465) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston was down huge against Jacksonville and came back by outscoring the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter to pull off the miracle win, yes we were part of that miracle, and it has been nonstop winning since then. The Texans have won their last four games after that victory including three on the road and now it is the time to sell in the first of two sleepy spots with the Raiders on deck. The defense has been just getting better as they have allowed only 58 points over their last 17 quarters but are laying a number that has happened only once with C.J. Stroud at quarterback as he has been favored by eight or more points only once and it was last season in an outright loss against the Titans. Arizona is on the opposite side in a buy low spot after getting rolled by the Rams last Sunday to make it five straight losses and this is the time to back the Cardinals. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (455) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is the contrarian angle of backing a favorite that nobody wants a part of even though it comes with the public Kansas City name. The Chiefs are all but done for a shot at the playoffs unless they win out and get some help and they will need a lot of help but they are in the ideal situation. They have failed to cover their last five games while going 4-11 in their last 15 games as favorites and have been on the complete opposite side of winning close games. Kansas City set an NFL record of 17 straight one possession wins but have lost all six this season prior to their 10-point loss to Houston last week. The Chargers are coming off an overtime win over the Eagles which puts them in a bad spot because of that but also being a short week and needing to travel. The offensive line took another hit and they are facing a legit defense. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points revenging an upset loss as a favorite and off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +13.1 ppg. 10* (468) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Tampa Bay has absolutely fallen apart as a home loss against New Orleans last week put the Buccaneers at 1-4 over their last five games and dropped them to 7-6 overall. The loss to the Saints was a bad one but it was in some horrible weather while the other three losses came against the Patriots, Bills and Rams which are a combined 30-9. They are tied with Carolina in the NFC South but own the early tiebreaker and still have two games left with the Panthers and can ill afford another divisional loss here. What seals the play here is that Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last five games and that is the contrarian play on. The Falcons are coming off a loss against Seattle in a game that was close for a half and then special teams and turnovers did them in. The loss eliminated Atlanta from any sort of playoff contention and both sides of the ball are regressing quickly. Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss by six points or less. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 61-21 ATS (74.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The status of Justin Herbert will obviously affect this play and if he is ruled out, this will be a pass but currently this is a Justin Herbert line as it went up to 3 early in the week upon surgery and then dropped back down to 2-2.5 upon his questionable status. The Chargers should see the return of running back Omarion Hampton who has been out since October 5 and along with Kimani Vidal, this is a solid running duo and the Eagles got torn up last week against the Bears and D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Chargers have outgained 10 of 12 opponents while the Eagles have been outgained by 10 of 12 opponents. The real injury news is on the other side however as the Eagles will be without right tackle Lane Johnson and defensive tackle Jalen Carter. They have been without Johnson the last two games and the running game has been non-existent as Philadelphia has rushed for 150 yards on 35 carries (4.3 ypc). The Eagles are just 8-15 ATS following a loss under head coach Nick Sirianni and this includes a 0-4 ATS mark when favored and coming off a loss as a home favorite. 10* (146) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. We will keep fading this overvalued and overhyped Denver team as it remains No. 2 in the Luck Ratings as it pulled off yet another win it easily could have lost, defeating Washington in overtime on a Commanders missed two-point conversion. The Broncos are 10-2 with eight of those wins coming by one possession including their last four wins by a total of 10 points. A nine-game winning streak is nothing to scoff at in this league as winning is hard but it can also be lucky at times and the markets have to keep adjusting the wrong way for bettors backing them. The Raiders were unable to get the offense going in the first game since offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was let go but now back home, the effort will continue to be there. Here, we play against road teams after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (138) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Baltimore is coming off a brutal loss on Thanksgiving against the Bengals 32-14 but the Ravens were outgained by just 36 yards as they committed five turnovers which was the ultimate downfall. They are now tied with the Steelers at 6-6 for first place in the AFC North with the Bengals now back in it with a healthy Joe Burrow. This is one of those rivalries where the dog was the automatic take as since 2005, the underdog is 29-12-3 ATS but not at this state of the Steelers. They are coming off a brutal game against Buffalo as the offense managed 166 yards against a bad Bills defense while their own defense allowed 249 yards rushing on 51 carries (4.9 ypc) so Derrick Henry could go off. Pittsburgh has lost five of seven and now has internal issues. Here, we play on home division favorites coming off a divisional loss and playing with 10 or more days off. This situation is 38-17 ATS (69.1 percent) since 2011. 10* (128) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. The Colts were deemed the best team in the NFL not that long ago and it does not take long for minds to change and gears to switch. Indianapolis has lost two straight games and three of its last four but those were all one possession losses and despite the offense regressing the last couple games behind a fractured Daniel Jones fibula, the Colts are still No. 2 in Offensive EPA. In a very surprising meeting stat is the fact that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 as they have lost the last 10 trips there. Since suffering that brutal loss in Houston where they were outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter, the Jaguars have won three straight games to move into a first place tie in the AFC South with the Colts and the number is now on the Colts side. Here, we play against teams after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 58-24 (70.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the classic spot where we have a team on a huge roll facing a team off a bad loss and laying big lumber on the road and we saw what happened to the Rams last week. The Seahawks are coming off a shutout of the Vikings 26-0 which is another reason to fade and despite the majority of the money on them, the line has slightly dropped. Atlanta has lost six of seven and no one will want to back them. Seattle is in a classic fade spot for a dominant team late in the season as we go against teams in December or later off a win with a winning percentage of .700 or better and a spread cover percentage of 60 percent or better and outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 81-51-5 ATS (61.4 percent) since 2003. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (130) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Buccaneers snapped a three-game losing streak with a three-point win over the Cardinals and of its seven wins, that was the fifth one possession victory as the Buccaneers remain one of the luckier teams in the league. Injuries really got to them and while they are getting healthier, they are not there yet especially at wide receiver and the Buccaneers are still being priced like they are a dominant team and they are not. Tampa Bay is No. 18 in Offensive EPA and No. 12 in Defensive EPA and in another sell high spot. New Orleans has officially been eliminated from the postseason as it has lost two straight to fall to 2-10. The offense has struggled but the defense has played at an above average level as the Saints are No. 14 in EPA. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (135) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. The Lions are coming off a loss against Green Bay and instead of getting their typical extra rest, they are playing a second straight Thursday but Dallas is in the same boat so there is no disadvantage. It is getting to be crunch time as Detroit is now 7-5 and trails the 49ers by a game and a half for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. They are a half-game ahead of Dallas and could essentially eliminate the Cowboys with a win and this game at home is a must with three of the last four games on the road. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 22-9 ATS off of a loss and this includes 14 straight wins with the Lions covering 13 of those games, the lone exception two weeks ago against the Giants in the overtime win where they could not get the margin. The defense has been the issue the last couple games, most recently with the Lions allowing 31 points on Thanksgiving and since taking over as head coach, Campbell is 15-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg. 10* (102) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Giants have dropped six straight games but have covered their last three games despite blowing fourth quarter leads in all three of those which ultimately led to the firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. If the NFL only played football games until the final two-minute warning, they would be 6-6 so this team is better than the record shows. The Giants are the first team in the history of the NFL to score 20 or more points and lose in six consecutive games. They also tied an NFL record for losing five games after leading by ten or more points. Jameis Winston provided a spark on offense and they now turn back to Jaxson Dart as a slight upgrade. The Patriots are now tied for the top spot in the AFC following the Denver overtime victory last night and remain a fraud top seed. They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Giants have played the hardest and they are No. 3 in the Luck Ratings with the Giants sitting at No. 32. After the Denver win/non-cover, teams on an eight-game or more winning streak are 39-63-2 ATS (38.2 percent) since 2010, including 11-23-1 ATS (32.4 percent) since 2020. 10* (483) New York Giants

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. Washington fell from going to the NFC Championship game to having the third worst record in the NFC. The Commanders did sneak up on teams last season and that was not the case early on although they did get off to a 3-2 start but they lost Jayden Daniels to an elbow injury and they have now dropped six straight games and important for us in this spot, dropped all six of those against the number. After four straight losses, we took them against Detroit and that was a bad move and we did not play them in Berlin `simply because we stay away from those international games. This is now the spot. Denver continues to roll along as it has won eight straight games but it has only covered half of those. Six of the eight wins have been by 16 points combined so no surprise they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after six or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Seahawks took care of Tennessee last week and they have been one of the best teams in the NFL at 8-3 with the three losses coming by a combined nine points and now back home, they are laying a stupid number. It has to do mostly with the Minnesota quarterback situation but the Seahawks are still a very public betting team right now because of their 8-3 ATS record and people will bling bet this team. Sam Darnold has been having a solid season but the Vikings have the edge in this matchup seeing that the defense saw every snap he took in practice last season. It has been a big disappointment for the Vikings as injuries and just lack of personnel has hurt. JJ McCarthy is out and the Vikings turn to rookie Max Brosmer and to be honest, it is not much of a drop off. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-39 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL False Favorite Smash. The Jets have lost two straight games and those were against the Patriots, one of the top teams in the league, and the Ravens, one of the better teams in the league despite their record. Both of those were on the road and while both were double-digit losses, they were actually more competitive than those scores indicate. The problem, which has been the case all season, is that they lost the turnover battle and it is pretty east for that to happen when the defense has only one takeaway all season which was a fumble in London so they are 0 for America and that changes here. The Falcons snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over New Orleans by 14 points despite winning the yardage battle by only nine yards. This team is a fraud and should not be favored over any team on the road. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (472) New York Jets

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFC Game of the Month. Recency bias is a springboard in the NFL as the public sees what has happened in the recent past and the markets have to react and that is exactly what is happening here. The Rams are now huge favorites to win the Super Bowl as they are clearly playing the best football of any team right now and makes them the betting favorite every week. It has paid off for the public as during their current six-game winning streak, the Rams have covered five of those games. And now they head out on the road as a double-digit favorite. Carolina looked lost on Monday night, namely quarterback Bryce Young who had a career game just the previous week. The Panthers are back home where they have been more competitive following a two-game road trip and are by far the value side. We all know Any Given Sunday is the NFL mantra. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points after playing a game at home going up against an opponent after a two-game road trip. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Cleveland is back home where it plays really well and the Browns have one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. They are coming off a rare road win, actually it was their first of the season, to snap a three-game losing streak. they are 2-2 at home with one of the wins over Green Bay and the two losses were against the Bengals when Joe Burrow was healthy in Week One and Baltimore by a touchdown where the defense played good enough to win but one bad play in the fourth quarter did them in. The weather will benefit the Browns as it will be a cold and wintery mix with high winds. San Francisco has won two straight games to move to 8-4 as it defeated Carolina on Monday night and prior to that, Arizona on the road by 19 points despite getting outgained by over 200 yards aided by turnovers and 17 Arizona penalties. Here, we play on teams after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 10 or more points. This situation is 24-9 (72.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (474) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The good news for Tampa Bay is that Baker Mayfield got the clearance to go but the bad news he is not healthy and is one hit away from leaving. With the dominating Chicago performance on Friday, Tampa Bay remains the only team of the current NFC playoff teams that has a negative scoring differential and even the two top teams on the outside looking in, Detroit and Dallas, are in the positive. The Buccaneers have been outgained in seven straight games and have now dropped three straight and four of five games. Arizona has been a thorn in our side so what better way to pull it out is to play the Cardinals again. They are coming off a brutal overtime loss against Jacksonville and that marked their sixth loss of the season by four points or less and by an average of 2.6 ppg. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (463) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Black Friday Enforcer. The Eagles are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys in Week 12 as they blew a 21-0 lead only to lose 24-21 to fall to 8-3. They still have a firm grip on the NFC East with a 2.5-game lead, it is the overall NFC where that loss hurts as Philadelphia is now a game behind the Rams for the top spot in the conference. Additionally, the Eagles are now tied with the Bears for No. 2 so a win here essentially gives them a two-game lead over Chicago when adding in the head-to-head victory. The Eagles have won and covered 10 straight games following a divisional game. The Bears continue to win as they defeated the Steelers last week by a field goal, their sixth win by five points or fewer with those six wins coming by an average of 2.7 ppg. This is the reason Chicago sits atop the Luck Ratings and we saw something similar with the Vikings a couple years ago. The schedule has a lot to do with why these teams have identical records as the Eagles have played the No. 3 ranked schedule while the Bears have played the No. 30 ranked slate in the league. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thanksgiving Primetime Winner. This game opened at 10.5 and has dropped considerably with it being down to a touchdown in most places with the news that Joe Burrow is back at practice and expected to make his return. There is still value in the number with the drop and with this being the standalone primetime game, the public will be backing the home team Ravens. Cincinnati has lost four straight games and three of those could have been won and while those were at home, catching this number in a divisional game is a take especially with the franchise coming back at quarterback along with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who returns after serving a one game suspension. Baltimore has won five straight games including the last four since Lamar Jackson returned with all four coming against teams that will be not making the playoffs and all four against teams ranked in the bottom third in Offensive EPA. So while the offense has looked good with Jackson back, the defense has caught breaks but it is still No. 19 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 30-7 (81.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (309) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thanksgiving Enforcer. Kansas City and Dallas both saved their seasons last week although the Cowboys are still in pretty bad shape. The Chiefs picked up a huge win in overtime as they outscored the Colts 11-0 in the fourth quarter and took the game on a 27-yard field goal. Kansas City is still on the outside as it is one game out, trailing the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills while being tied with Texans and Steelers at 6-5. The upcoming schedule is in their favor with the three toughest games all at home and the lone remaining road games after this being at Tennessee and Las Vegas but it all starts here. The Cowboys rallied from a 21-0 deficit to defeat the Eagles 24-21 on a field goal as time expired. They outgained Philadelphia by 134 total yards after winning the yardage battle by 145 yards the previous week but that was against the Raiders. Dallas is two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the NFL and still would have to pass two teams in front of them. Their issue has been turnovers as they are -8 in turnover margin in their losses and have given it away eight times in their last four games. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thanksgiving Matinee. Detroit was coming off a loss at Philadelphia in Week 11 so the home game last week against the Giants should have been the get right game but it in fact was not as the Lions barely escaped with a win in overtime following a 59-yard field goal that forced that overtime. Now this is the get right spot as this game is huge for both sides and getting Detroit at home is a big edge. Detroit is sitting on the outside of the NFC Playoffs looking in but a win here leaps them over Green Bay and likely puts them into a tie with the Bears for first place in the NFC North as Chicago is at the Eagles and that likely is a loss. The Packers have won two straight games to move to 7-3-1 which puts them a half-game behind the Bears but it has been an unimpressive run since their 2-0 starts as they have played the No. 27 ranked schedule. This is a revenge game for Detroit after a 27-13 loss opening week and we just do not see this dynamic offense getting shutdown at home where they are averaging 33.6 ppg. Here, we play against road teams averaging between 185 and 230 passing ypg and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 185 and 230 passing ypg. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (306) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The 49ers are coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 7-4 which has them in third place in the NFC West, two games behind the first place Rams. As of right now, San Francisco would have the final Wild Card spot in the NFC as it owns the tiebreaker against Detroit. The offense, namely Christian McCaffrey, has carried the 49ers as the banged up defense remains the issue as San Francisco is No. 25 in Defensive EPA. Going back, San Francisco has had trouble stringing positive games together as it is 1-9 ATS after a spread win, 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a double-digit road win, 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 30 points or more and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up win. Carolina has won five of its last seven games including an overtime win at Atlanta last week and the Panthers are right in the playoff mix. They are a game behind San Francisco and Detroit with this being the first of two straight games against the NFC West with the Rams on deck. 10* (265) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our AFC Game of the Month. We played on the Browns last week and they brought it in at home against the Ravens, doing their best to lose it but we are now fading as Cleveland hits the road in an awful spot. They have been winless on the road and have not even covered a number on the highway and going back, the Browns are 5-17 ATS on the road in their last 22 games away from home, the least profitable team over the last three seasons. And they will be breaking in a new starter with Shedeur Sanders making his first career start and the last 17 quarterbacks making their maiden start in Clevland have gone 0-17. The Raiders have lost four straight games and come in with an identical 2-8 record and while they are 1-4 at home, they have been more competitive with a pair of losses by a single point. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss, with a losing record on the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (258) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Patriots just keep getting it done as they have now won eight straight games and are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They have been unbeatable on the road and the most profitable team at a perfect 5-0 ATS and are in the prime sell high spot. Teams that have won eight or more straight games are just 39-61-2 ATS including 14-34 ATS on the road. Two road games back, were -6.5 at Tennessee and are now favored more and have eclipsed that key one possession number. The Bengals has been ravaged with injuries and will be shorthanded again with wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase serving a one game suspension. The quarterback situation was a concern coming in but Joe Flacco has been cleared and there could be a Joe burrow sighting if needed as he practiced Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. While New England is the sell high team, Cincinnati is the buy low team at the great number. 10* (248) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. Buffalo was coming off a horrible loss in Miami and had a horrible start against Tampa Bay until Josh Allen took over and made it only the second time a quarterback to have three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game, joining himself from Week 14 of last season. The test will be tougher this week facing the top ranked defense in EPA but the spot is good as this offense can keep it going while the Texans defense is also on a short week and that is more difficult to prepare for. Buffalo enters the week No. 2 in Offensive EPA which includes No. 3 in Passing and No. 4 in rushing. Buffalo has been gashed for 197 and 202 yards rushing the last two games and it has allowed 189 rushing yards or more five times this season but the good news for the Bills is that Houston has no running game as it is No. 28 in Offensive rushing EPA. The Texans have had 89 rushing yards or fewer in five games this season so this rushing disparity is a big deal in keeping the Buffalo offense off the field and we do not see that happening. Here, we play against teams off two straight divisional games going up against an opponent off a non-conference game. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +8.1 ppg. 10* (111) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. The Cowboys were in need of some help on Sunday with the five teams ahead of them in the playoff race that they can conceivably catch and those teams went 2-3 and a win here puts them 2.5 games out of the final spot in the NFC but they have to pass four teams, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, 49ers. Dallas is off its bye week after playing on a Monday which could be considered an edge but the Raiders are on a mini bye as their last game was Week 10 Thursday but an extra two days is still important this time of year. This game is obviously for Marshawn Kneeland and while putting tragedy and sports together seems outrageous, these players are brothers and they will be all out for this one. Quarterbacks matter and in this case, Dallas has the clear edge based on situation as since 2020, Dak Prescott is 13-1 straight up as a favorite in the primetime spotlight while Geno Smith is 2-13 straight up as an underdog under the lights. A win does not necessarily mean a cover here but it is a good number to do so and the hook tell us the Cowboys are the side as the Raiders will be popular for those that want that extra half-point. Here, we play against underdogs after a loss by six or less points going up against an opponent after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 29-2 (93.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +10.2 ppg. 10* (477) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We were on Cleveland last week and it was a brutal loss as it outgained the Jets 278-169 but allowed two special teams kick returns for touchdowns in a span of less than a minute. The Browns are now 2-7 and return home where they are 2-1 and this is just their second home game since September 21st as they have played four road games, a game in London and also had their bye week. The offense remains a work in progress but the defense continues to dominate as Cleveland is No. 4 in Defensive EPA. The Ravens have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak and are now at 4-5 on the season and just one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North so the losing streak is a distant memory that has not caused much damage yet. This is their third straight road game as they got Miami on a Thursday and had the extra mini bye in getting ready for Minnesota. Baltimore won the first meeting 41-17 but was outgained by the Browns but won the turnover battle 2-0 while returning a fumble for a touchdown. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, with a losing record. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (472) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFC West Game of the Month. Arizona came up small last week as it allowed a 43-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba four minutes into the game then Seattle recovered a fumble and ran it in for a touchdown, one of two first half defensive touchdowns a minute and a half later and it was lights out. It was a 22-point loss for the Cardinals which lost their first five games by a combined 13 points so it was the first bad game of the season despite being 3-6. We expect a bounce back this week as they are catching points at home as this opened at 1 and is now up to 3 based on the Brock Purdy news. San Francisco got rolled in Los Angeles as the defense continues its inconsistent play as the injuries continue to pile up. The 49ers are No. 26 in Defensive EPA which is something we are not accustomed to but something we have to get used to. Jacoby Brissett fared well in his first three starts against average to below average defenses but he struggled last week against the Seahawks which are No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. This line is holding tight as it opened at 3.5 and has stayed there throughout the week and we are getting the hook over the key number as of Friday still. Carolina was starting to make a move as it had won four of five games to go to 5-4 but it is coming off a horrible loss last week against New Orleans at home, giving the Saints just their second victory. The offense managed only 175 yards and it was the fourth straight game the Panthers have had 177 or fewer passing yards. This team has to run the ball to have any success on offense and they6 can do that here with the Falcons possessing the No. 28 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Atlanta is coming off a tough overtime loss against the Colts in Berlin and are playing without taking a bye looking to snap their four-game losing streak. They picked up a win over Minnesota in the second week of the season with the other two wins coming against 3-7 Washington and a flawed Bills team. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games. This situation is 101-50 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Chicago is coming off yet another come-from-behind win as it trailed the Giants 20-10 late in the fourth quarter but scored two touchdowns to pull out the victory. It was the second straight 4th quarter comeback and the fourth time this season the Bears have scored the go ahead points inside the final two minutes so while they are sitting at 6-3, it is a very fortunate 6-3. They hit the road where they are 3-2, all three wins by the aforementioned come-from-behind variety and all against teams a combined 8-20. Minnesota is coming off a loss to Baltimore following the upset over Detroit and the Vikings have lost three of their last four games, the other two losses coming against the Eagles and the Chargers so it has been a brutal stretch. Sure, they are playing another winning team but as mentioned, the Bears realistically should not be. The Vikings have the huge edge in defense and while their offense has struggled, they will be able to find the push here. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a money line of +130 to -150 - off one or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams with scoring differentials of +/- 3 ppg. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (462) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We played against Jacksonville last week as the Jaguars blew a 29-10 lead by getting outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter. It was a fortunate win for Houston and now the Jacksonville season could be on the line. A loss here drops their playoff percentage to just 20 percent so this is a big one and it happens to be their first home game in a month. They were 4-1 at one point but have now lost three of four including two straight at home after opening 3-0 in Jacksonville. The Chargers have won three straight to move to 7-3 which includes a 3-1 record on the road with the wins coming against the Raiders, Dolphins and Titans. Justin Herbert already has eight interceptions after throwing just three all of last season and a lot of this is due to him getting pressured as the Chargers offensive line is a mess. Both starting offensive tackles are done for the year with injuries as he has been sacked 33 times, eight shy of his career high and the third most in the NFL this season. Here, we play against teams with a scoring differential between +3 and +7 ppg and after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against teams with scoring differentials of +/- 3 ppg. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (466) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. The Jets came through with the win last weekend as they took out Cleveland for their second straight win sandwiched around their bye week. They really had no business winning against Cleveland as they managed only 169 total yards but returned two kicks for touchdowns which was the ultimate difference while another touchdown came on a 42-yard pass to Bryce Hall so there was basically no offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They do face another one on Thursday but this number is out of control for a divisional game as we are approaching two touchdowns. The Jets have obviously had a rough season but five of their seven losses have been by one possession and they are No. 32 in the Luck Rating meaning they are the most unfortunate team in the league. New England is coming off a big win in Tampa Bay which was its seventh straight win to improve to 8-2 and the Patriots have a one and a half game lead over the Bills in the AFC East with a game in hand over Buffalo. The Patriots have been on the other side of the luck factor as they are No. 7 in the Luck Ratings and this is with playing the easiest schedule in the NFL. Of the eight wins, five have been by one possession with three of those coming against some suspect competition in Miami, New Orleans and Atlanta. This is the time to sell high as they are going to be a huge public play in primetime. 10* (311) New York Jets

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. The Packers are coming off a horrible loss to Carolina 16-13 last week and it looks even worse after the Panthers lost to New Orleans on Sunday. Green Bay is now 5-2-1 and have a one game lead over Detroit in the NFC North coming into Monday. This is a revenge spot for the Packers as they lost in Philadelphia in the Wild Card Playoff Round 22-10 despite outgaining the Eagles 302-290 but they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Teams after losing favorites of a touchdown or more are 22-13 ATS over the last three seasons in their next game. Green Bay is 11-2 under head coach Matt LeFleur after scoring 14 points or fewer in its last game. The Eagles are coming off a bye week which came after a 38-20 win over the Giants as they outgained New York 427-246 and this was the first game all season they have outgained their opponent as they came in 0-7 in the stats. On the season, Philadelphia is 5.6 to 5.5 in yppl which is shocking for a team that is 6-2. This line continues to come down as it opened at 3 and has come down to 1 or 1.5 with a lot of that due to the Eagles acquisitions at the trade deadline. 10* (276) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This seems like the easy spot to take Detroit as it is coming off a loss against Minnesota so everyone expects the Lions to rebound especially when knowing quarterback Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have won and covered 12 straight games coming off a loss. But that is when they are healthy and they are far from it now. Their offensive line is in shambles and that is not good for the statue that is Goff and the defense is far from healthy. This offense has been pedestrian of late as their Success Rate has been middle of the pack. Facing a Washington defense could help and obviously on offense, the loss of Jayden Daniels hurts but the drop off to Marcus Mariota should not warrant a five-point line swing so the line move is part of this play as is the fact no one wants this team as the Commanders are the first NFL team since the 2020 Jaguars to lose three straight games by at least 21 points. 94 percent of the money is on Detroit. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 94-54 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Arizona came through on Monday night for us and we are back the Cardinals again with this inflated number. Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with that victory and it is now 3-5 with those losses all being close calls. The five losses have been by one possession and by an average of 2.6 ppg which makes them a live dog once again. Jacoby Brissett will be making the start again and he has brought some life into the offense as he has averaged 286.7 ypg with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio in his three starts. Seattle is being deemed as the best team in the NFL by some and yes they are good, but this is all about recency bias as the Seahawks have won three straight games including a blowout in Washington last week. they have covered three straight and six of their last seven games so the number has to be inflated by the markets and it is too much in this case in a divisional game along with their recent dominance against Arizona with eight straight wins. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (267) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Jacksonville is coming off an overtime win over the Raiders last week thanks to a missed Las Vegas two-point conversion to improve to 5-3 and it currently holds the final playoff spot in the AFC. This team has a solid EPA in offensive rushing but that all the Jaguars do good as they are No. 21 in Offensive EPA overall and No. 17 in Defensive EPA. The wide receiver room is totally banged up and this is not the game for that as they will possibly be without Brian Thomas, Jr. Over the last 10 years, teams off an overtime game when their opponent did not have won at just a 42 percent clip. Houston lost a tough one against Denver to fall to 3-5 and this almost feels like a must win game as the Texans have already lost to the Jaguars once setting up revenge and they have yet to face the Colts. The bad news is that C.J. Stroud is out but the good news is that Houston brings in the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 revenging a loss by seven points or less. This situation is 29-4 ATS (87.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland and New York are both coming off their bye week and obviously the Jets were active at the trade deadline, trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams so their defense has been severely downgraded and they will hear it from the Jets faithful. They were not good anyway, coming into this week No. 30 in Defensive EPA and now they are more depleted. Offensively, they do have a slight edge on Cleveland but they are not facing the Bengals like they did in picking up their first win prior to the bye and all momentum is gone. Cleveland got rolled at New England before its bye so the time off came at a good time and while the Browns season might be cooked, their defense is still playing at a high level. Cleveland is No. 4 in Defensive EPA and Justin Fields could be in trouble like he was against Denver in London. The offense needs a boost and this is one of the best opportunities for that in both the passing and running games. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in November games. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a future on New England to make the playoffs and it is looking good but no way was this expected as the Patriots are 7-2 which includes six straight wins. This includes a great win at Buffalo following a home win against Carolina to start it but since then, it has been New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta thanks to a missed extra point. In the second half of the season, underdogs that are on a six-game or more winning streak are 27-42-1 ATS and now they catch a real team for the first time in a while. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week which came at a good time as this team needed to heal although they are not fully back yet. Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving missed practice again with the latter possibly coming back but the best news is that right tackle Luke Goedeke, who missed six games, was back at practice and looks to finally return. On the other side, the Buccaneers are relatively healthy and No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against teams off a home win by three points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. Denver is 7-2 to start the season including six straight wins and it could be a better or worse record. The Broncos have five one possession wins so there is some luck there but the two losses have been by a combined four points. The defense has led the way as they are No. 7 in EPA which includes No. 4 in Passing EPA and No. 6 in Rushing EPA. Quarterback Bo Nix has been up and down but he has dominated in these spots, going 13-1 as a favorite and has a great matchup here. The Raiders are coming off an overtime loss against Jacksonville by a point and are 1-6 over their last seven games following the opening upset over the Patriots and the only recent win was against Tennessee. Las Vegas in No. 29 in Offensive EPA so they are not going to do much against the Denver defense while they are No. 24 in Defensive EPA including No. 24 in Passing EPA which gives Nix that advantage. Here, we play against teams playing on Thursday night coming off an overtime game if their opponent is not off an overtime game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 2005. 10* (110) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arizona comes in with a 2-5 record as it has now lost five straight games but it has been all close calls. The five losses have been by one possession and by an average of 2.6 ppg which makes them a live dog. After starting Jacoby Brissett the last two games, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray back as he has been rested for a month following the two games and their bye week. Dallas is coming off a 20-point loss at Denver and returns home where it is 2-0-1 and will be the typical public favorite tonight especially in a primetime game. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (475) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. 10* (472) Buffalo Bills