Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-22 | Rafael Nadal v. Danill Medvedev -188 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -188 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
I'm backing MEDVEDEV in the Australian Final. With Djokovic out of the picture, Nadal has a shot at history. Give him credit for getting this far and putting himself in this position. He's obviously got experience on his side and it would be easy to want to cheer for him. That said, I'm here to "win" not to "cheer" and I feel that age catches up with him here. Remember, Nadal nearly retired last year, missing a lot of time with a foot injury. He's played a lot of tennis to get here and Medvedev is going to make him work for everything. While Nadal is that much older, Medvedev is no longer the same player that took him to five sets in the 2019 US Open Final. Not only does Medvedev now have a major title (US Open) under his belt but he also handled Nadal (London 2020) the last time that the two faced each other. That 3-set victory came after Nadal had won the first three h2h matches. If this was Paris, Nadal would obviously be tough to beat. It's not though. Rather, it's Medvedev's time. Enjoy the match and good luck. |
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09-09-21 | Emma Raducanu v. Maria Sakkari -145 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm back SAKKARI in Thursday's semi-final match. I though that Sakkari might have her hands full against Pliskova. Not only was Pliskova playing well, but Sakkari was off a gruelling 3-set match against Andreescu. She didn't though. Rather, she delivered one of the most dominant service performances in recent memory. At one point, she won 22 straight points on her serve. She'd finish by winning 93% of her first serves and 76% of her second ones. Full of confidence, I don't see her being broken in this one. Emma Raducanu has been one of the big stories here and she's been playing great. She's still only 18 though and eventually the big stage - this is the farthest she's gone in a major - is likely to catch up with her. I say that happens today. Sakkari keeps up her strong serving while earning enough breaks to get it done. |
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09-07-21 | Felix Auger-Aliassime -210 v. Carlos Alcaraz | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm backing Felix Auger-Aliassime on Tuesday evening. If this seems like a rather young quarterfinal matchup, that's because it is. Alcaraz is only 18 while Auger-Aliassime is 22. That makes this the youngest quarterfinal (in a major) since 2006, when a young Nadal squared off against an even younger Djokovic. While he's obviously still young himself, Auger-Aliassime's added years and experience will serve him well in this one. So will the surface. As well as Alcaraz has been playing here, he's still better suited for clay. Auger-Aliassime will have the advantage serving. He's already recorded 77 aces in four matches. He was quoted saying: "Carlos is a great player. A great person also. He deserves to be in this position. He's going to be at the top of the game, I think, for many years in the future… I think he's playing good and he will keep playing well in this tournament, so I have to prepare myself for the best of him." In what should be an exciting match, expect Auger-Aliassime to "come prepared" and for him to ulimately earn the victory. |
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08-16-21 | Richard Gasquet -145 v. Andy Murray | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing GASQUET in Monday's tennis action. Both in their mid-30's, these guys have each seen better days, on the court. Murray has fallen considerably farther though. One of the top players in the world only a few years ago, he's now fallen out of the top 100. Murray's recent comments suggest that he's more focused on the US Open. "I think I need to set short-term goals, it is what's really important just now because it's been very difficult to plan medium and longer-term targets because of various different issues that I've had this year. I just try to focus on the short term. Look at this week as a great opportunity for me to play on hard courts in conditions that I like against top players again. So short-term goals is to be on the practice court with these guys as much as I can, hopefully get the chance to play matches, like I said in these conditions and give all my energy and efforts to the US Open and assess where my game and my body is at the end of that. But I can't really look too far ahead right now, I think my team planning my physical conditioning and my scheduling and everything – that could be their job to plan those things out but for me I just need to take things each week at a time just now and give all my energy to each match and each event that I play and see where I'm at at the end of the US Open." Gasquet won the last h2h meeting - and he actually holds a 5-3 lead over Murray when playing a best-of-three. Gasquet's been more active this year and played well through the qualifying. I say he takes this one. |
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07-02-21 | Frances Tiafoe -141 v. Karen Khachanov | 0-3 | Loss | -141 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FRANCES TIAFOE. Khachanov has the higher ranking. However, Tiafoe is favored for good reason. When these guys met here in 2018, Khachanov prevailed in five sets. Tiafoe, who won the first two sets, was very young still though. He's now 23 (Khachanov is 25) and playing some of the best tennis of his life. Wednesday saw him cruise past Canada's Pospisil in straight sets. Not only did he hold serve every time, he never even allowed Pospisil an opportunity at a break point. Monday's match was even more impressive. Facing the #3 ranked player (Tsitsipas) Tiafoe again won in straight sets, once again never being broken. Tiafoe commented: “Grass just helps my game/ It forces me to play the right way. It forces me to play super aggressive. It forces me to be off my front foot on both sides, it forces me to come to the net, because otherwise you're vulnerable." While it may not happen in straight sets this time, confidence sky high, expect Tiafoe to ultimately take care of business once again. |
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07-01-21 | Yulia Putintseva v. Paula Badosa Gibert -194 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm backing PAULA BADOSA on Thursday. I believe that this is a case of two players going in opposite directions. Badosa is arguably playing the best tennis of her career. I like the way she enters this one. She didn't have much experience on grass. However, last week, she gave a highly ranked player (Svitolina) all that she could handle at Eastbourne, another grasscourt in the UK. Though Svitolina ultimately prevailed, Badosa gained confidence from the experience; she was right there, capable of winning that match. Then, she gained further confidence from beating her countrywoman (Bolsova) in the first round, getting the "Wimbledon monkey" off her back. Now 24-9 in 2021, she knows that she can win on grass. The fact that she's had to battle the last couple of matches should serve her well. This one may also go the distance but Badosa's strong will and superior talent should serve her well. Putintseva got a very favorable first round matchup. She's still only 14-13 on the year though. She's never had much success on grass and I can't see her getting past Badosa. |
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06-06-21 | Victoria Azarenka -175 v. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -175 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing AZARENKA on Sunday morning. The women's side of the bracket is wide open. There are a number of defending champions, like Serena Williams, Sofia Kenin and former #1 Victoria Azarenka. However, all three of those women have fallen back from their previous highs. Kenin, who advanced yesterday, is the highest remaining seed. She's the #4 player. Williams is #8 while Azarenka. Still, all of them have to like their chances of hoisting the trophy as none are unbeatable. I really like what I'm seeing from Azarenka and I feel that this is a favorable matchup for her. Azarenka dominated the #23 player (Keys) in straight sets. After that match she commented: "I thought I played really solid. I felt I played very disciplined today. I played smart. I tried to be aggressive. My opponent, Madison, she really likes to dictate the points, so I tried to take that away from her, really step in, and make a lot of different balls so I’m pretty proud I was able to sustain my level." Pavlyuchenkova beat the #3 player (Sabalenka) to get here. So, she's clearly capable and playing well. That said, Azarenka has beaten her in five of six h2h matches. I believe her big match experience will be a difference in this one and that she will prove too much for Pavlyuchenkova to handle. |
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06-05-21 | Sofia Kenin -127 v. Jessica Pegula | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOFIA KENIN on Saturday morning. Pegula has had the better year AND Pegula has taken two of three meetings. Those factors have kept the line very low. However, when at her best, Kenin is the superior player. Kenin won the most recent meeting (the other two were a few years ago) and signs indicate that she's rounding back into top form. While Pegula has a lot of power, Kenin is a highly determined player. She attacks with intensity and ultimately I don't feel that Pegula will be able to match that. Getting the #4 seed against the #28 seed, at this price, is more than fair. Kenin's comeback continues for another day. |
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10-11-20 | Novak Djokovic v. Rafael Nadal -138 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing NADAL in the French Open Final. While Djokovic may have the edge on other surfaces, Rolland Garros belongs to Rafael Nadal. Indeed, he's 99-2 here. A win here gives him 100. It would also be his 13th championship here and would tie Federer (for the most) with 20 singles Grand Slam titles. Djokovic does have a 29-26 advantage all-time between these two. However, Nadal leads 17-7 on clay and by a dominating 6-1 margin here at Roland Garros. Nadal had this to say off his last win: "I made a step forward today and played my best match of the tournament..." Expect him to carry the momentum forward en route to making history. |