Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-23 | Southern v. Marquette -32.5 | 56-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marquette (5-1) went 2-1 in the stacked Maui Invitational field, including taking down then-No. 1 Kansas before coming up short in the championship game to then-No. 2 Purdue by a 78-75 final. The Boilermakers are now the top-ranked team in the country. The Golden Eagles trailed by as many as 15 in the second half against Purdue and got within one before the comeback bid stalled. Marquette's Tyler Kolek led the way with 22 points, along with seven rebounds and six assists, while Kam Jones added 17 points. Southern (1-5) arrives on a four-game losing streak, most recently falling 71-59 on the road at Valparaiso on Saturday. Marquette is 2-0 against Southern since the 2013-14 season, with the last matchup in 2018 when Marquette won in an 84-41 blowout in Milwaukee. |
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11-28-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder come in just a game behind Minnesota in this one and will not only cover the spread but will come out with the win too. The Thunder have been able to put it all together on both ends of the court and have the length to match the Timberwolves, which is something many others have struggled with. The Thunder have the best player in this game in SGA and with Holmgren coming along nicely too, especially from the perimeter, it gives this team quite a few more options to lean on. The key advantage for Oklahoma City is on the offensive end, where they are one of the league's most efficient teams, which translates well to success on the road. They have confidence and momentum, and their youngsters won't be daunted being on the road, while covering the spread in all but one of their last seven games, shows a trend building. |
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11-28-23 | Utah State v. St. Louis +7 | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah State looked impressive at a neutral site, but giving up 6.5 points on the road is different. The Aggies are proud of their in-season tournament championship, as they should be, but the field in the Cayman Islands Classic was watered down. Defeating teams like Marshall, Akron and Stephen F. Austin does not do much to improve your resume. Keep in mind, Utah State has only played one true road game this season, and lost on the road to Bradley. Saint Louis is undefeated at home on the season, they have a chance to spring an upset on their home floor, but taking the 6.5 points is still the play. Utah State's offense is only ranked 102nd in the nation, and their tempo is 182nd; they do not score with great efficiency or play at a break-neck pace. Utah State will not run up the score here, they lost their only road game, and Saint Louis is undefeated at home. Hargrove Jr. and Jimerson provide the Billikens with a strong enough inside-out game to keep this close. |
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11-28-23 | Bucks v. Heat +3 | 131-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks have had their difficulties with the Heat, going 2-2 last season during the regular season but losing in five games in the opening round of the playoffs to the Heat. In fact, the Bucks are now 0-3 in their last four games in Miami. The Heat have not just won the four games, they've done so handily in each case. The four home wins against the Bucks have come by an average of just over 12.5 points per contest. While Lillard's presence changes the dynamic somewhat, the Bucks lose a key defender like Jrue Holiday in the process. Holiday was capable of guarding both the point guard and Jimmy Butler at times but the Bucks won't have that luxury with Lillard, an inferior defender to Holiday. I like the Heat to exploit their matchup advantages in this game and pull out a win over the Bucks. If you are feeling aggressive, forego the points and take this game on the money line. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Vikings return home having had their 5-0 SUATS win skein snapped in a loss at Denver last week. The bigger problem they face tonight is they beat Chicago earlier this season in a game in which they mustered 220 yards while being outstatted in the contest. It was the game in which Justin Fields was injured, but he’s back. With it, the Bears bring a 6-1 ATS log in Monday Night road games. On the flip side, Minny is just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on Mondays since 2009, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a loss. |
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11-27-23 | Houston Christian +35 v. TCU | 64-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With its Big 12-Big East Battle matchup at Georgetown set for Saturday, TCU has one last tune-up tonight as the Horned Frogs welcome Houston Christian to Fort Worth, Texas, aiming to keep their undefeated season intact. TCU (5-0) is coming off a 93-74 win over Alcorn State last Tuesday. Houston Christian is winless in four games, though the Huskies lost twice by single digits. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Week Rating; 5 Units If the NFL playoffs were to begin this week, Philly would own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, due to its recent funk, Buffalo would be on the outside looking in as the No. 8 seed in the AFC. Remember, though, the Bills are one of only five NFL teams that rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense this season – the Eagles do not. We top it off with the fact that Buffalo is 5-0 SUATS the last ten years against foes coming off a Monday Night game. Finally, playing against any NFL home team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game is 6-0 ATS. |
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11-26-23 | Browns +1.5 v. Broncos | 12-29 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland enters Mile High this week feeling a Mile High themselves. Meanwhile, Denver enters today’s game on a 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS run in its last five games against the AFC North. They also had a -52 net PPG on the season, as opposed to Cleveland’s +47 net PPG this campaign. On the other side of the field, Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. With Denver, 2-12-1 ATS in its last fifteen games as a favorite, look for Kevin Stefanski’s magical patchwork show to continue its winning ways today. |
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11-26-23 | New Orleans v. Central Arkansas +5 | 79-74 | Push | 0 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-26-23 | Blazers v. Bucks -12.5 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won six of their last seven games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 121 points per game while making over 49 percent of their shots. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They have also protected the ball well and won’t give the Trailblazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Trailblazers aren’t very good defensively and they play worse on the road where they are giving up more than 114 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bucks in this game. The Trailblazers have lost eight of their last nine games and four straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 110 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bucks and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bucks, who average more than seven steals per game. The Bucks aren’t great defensively, but they play better at home, so expect them to keep Portland’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the spread. |
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11-26-23 | Wyoming v. Texas -15.5 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has the advantage of playing at home against a Wyoming team that hasn't had a true road test yet. Wyoming hasn't played a team close to this tough either. Along with that, the Longhorns need to bounce back from their first loss. All of that is to say, that Texas should blow out the Cowboys. The Longhorns have a defense that will completely stymie Wyoming. Texas will also control the rebounding battle. Nobody is stopping Texas from scoring, and that won't change on Sunday. Take Texas to cover. |
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11-26-23 | Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Biggest Achilles without Joe Brr is the Bengals’ pitiable ground game which ranks last in Rush Attempts Per Game and No. 30 in overall rushing. Still, the bottom line is Pittsburgh is still 0-10 ‘In the Stats’ this season, and you won’t find us laying points with them any time soon. Not with the Bengals 5-0-2 ATS when coming off two losses, including 4-0 outright in the last four games. While this appears a strange “Best Bet” consider that the Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is 12-3 ATS as a dog against an opponent the Bengals defeated in their most recent meeting, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than one-point |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +2 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today’s game is a battle for the top spot in the AFC South and with it, the Texans bring the better offense and the better defense into this contest. Houston is 5-1 ATS as a dog behind Stroud, winning 4 of the games outright. They are also 21-5 SU and 15-10-1 ATS in this series, including 8-2 ATS as a dog. With the ‘Ville 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games and 4-8 ATS in its last dozen division games, we’re on the take here today. |
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11-26-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisville -8 | 84-90 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have renewed confidence in the Cardinals following their strong showing in New York City. They were in position to win both games and truly had the 19th-ranked Longhorns on the ropes before falling on a last-second shot. That confidence should carry over in this spot against a New Mexico State team that has struggled on both ends of the court this season. The Aggies have had difficulty scoring, shooting, and defending the opposition. Louisville has been above average defending the opposition this season, ranking 170th in defensive field goal percentage and 134th in 3-point defense. The biggest differential in this game is rebounding. Louisville is 50th in the nation while the Aggies are just under 300th in the nation. The Cardinals should dominate the glass and dominate the interior. |
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11-26-23 | Austin Peay v. Appalachian State -9 | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-25-23 | California +9.5 v. UCLA | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
PAC-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Bruins are just 6-14 ATS when playing against revenge in this series and are a miserable 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. Add to that a 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in LHGs and we put up the stop sign in Pasadena. Meanwhile, Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS as a home dog, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite versus a foe coming off a win as a dog. UCLA has the nation’s second-ranked rushing defense, but Cal’s sophomore RB Jadyn Ott has averaged nearly 145 yards on the ground over the last four games and scored 6 TD’s and is the Pac-12’s leading rusher. Finally, Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win |
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11-25-23 | Notre Dame -25.5 v. Stanford | 56-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS as road chalk of more than 7 points, and 5-1 ATS with single revenge (lost to the Tree last year on a fourth quarter field goal in a 16-14 defeat). As for the Cardinal, it’s been a disastrous campaign in the wake of David Shaw’s departure, capped off by losing The Big Game to Cal, 27-15, for the fourth time in the last five years. (Stanford had been victorious nine times in a row before that.) Today they enter with a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven roles as home dogs. They are also 1-5 ATS versus single revenge and 0-7 ATS off an ATS loss versus a foe off an ATS win. |
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11-25-23 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Season-ending games have not been kind to Wisconsin either as they’ve gone a puzzling 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in season finales the last six years. Yes, Minnesota is coming off consecutive losses of its own, but the Gophers are 18-6 ATS when coming off a pair of losses, including 9-1 SUATS at home. They’re also a sweet 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a dog. Finally, Minnesota head coach P.J. fleck is 6-2 ATS as a dog in his career in season finales, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .800 opponents. |
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11-25-23 | James Madison v. Coastal Carolina +9 | Top | 56-14 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The NCAA stuck to their moronic stupidly needless rule not allowing a team to play in a bowl game while transitioning from D3 to D1. The week got worse when the ‘72 Dolphins popped the corks once JMU was upset by App. State. You can’t fix stupid, so JMU is finishing their promising season at Coastal against a team that likely hasn’t forgotten the 47-7 beatdown they took from J. Mad last year. Finally, Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS as a single-digit dog with revenge on the brain, including 4-0 SUATS when the Chants are batting .600 or better in the win column. |
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11-25-23 | Alabama v. Auburn +13.5 | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The host in this series is 5-0-1 ATS / 3-1 SUATS with revenge when the Tide is off a win of 50-plus points. You also need to know Auburn is 9-5-1 ATS in this series when coming off a loss, including 2-0 ATS off a loss of 20 or more points, as well as 8-2 ATS off a loss with a winning record. Including Alabama, a handful of 1-loss playoff-eligible teams take the field this weekend with visions of making the College Football Playoff. |
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11-25-23 | Texas A&M v. LSU -11 | 30-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 10-31-1 ATS mark as conference road dogs against opponents coming off a double-digit win certainly does not bode well for Texas A&M, nor does its 2-8 ATS record in season finales. Meanwhile, the LSU defense has not been very good, but the explosive attack behind QB Jayden Daniels has more than made up for it on the other side of the football. The Tigers have owned this series, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups. The Bayou Bengals are also 9-2 ATS with single conference revenge (lost 38-23 as double-digit road chalk last year), 7-2 at home versus a less-than-500 SEC opponent, and 6-2 in their 3rd straight home game. With Brian Kelly doing everything in his power to help Daniels capture this year’s Heisman Trophy, figure the starters to be in the game longer than usual in this rout. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State +3 v. Michigan | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Losing two straight to Michigan in this series has been a rarity for Ohio State but they’re a profitable 8-2 ATS with double-plus revenge versus greater than .700 foes. The Buckeyes also thrive in the role of underdog, going 17-4 ATS as a dog since the Buckeyes lost 24-21 to Texas in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl as an 8-point dog, including 10-0 ATS in Big Ten battles. And if OSU is taking points after being favored in its previous game, they check in with a 9-1 ATS mark. Yes, the Wolverines have fielded a rock solid defense this season, allowing just 9 points and 253 yards per game. However, the Buckeyes have posted a 15-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS record versus conference foes that allow fewer than 10 PPG. With Michigan just 2-6-1 ATS of late when tangling with undefeated conference opponents and head coach Harbaugh not on the sidelines for a third straight week, we expect the Buckeyes to take care of business today in the Big House. |
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11-24-23 | Southern Indiana +37 v. Duke | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Winthrop +9 v. Georgia | 69-78 | Push | 0 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Missouri v. Arkansas +9 | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Missouri is on a 0-5 ATS mark in Last Road Games, they’re also 4-12 ATS in the final game of the season, including 0-6 ATS away. As glorious as this campaign has been for Missouri, Arkansas has suffered through the complete opposite, a 4-7 record that has left both coaches and fans of Razorback football totally exasperated. A win this afternoon in Fayetteville won’t cure that but a good showing in front of the home folks on Senior Day would send them into next season with some positive momentum. The Hogs have some good numbers backing them up, including a 4-0 ATS series run on this field, and an 8-1 ATS skein for the game’s host. Sam Pittman’s troops also own a 4-1 ATS record versus .750 or greater SEC opponents, and 7-2 ATS of late as conference dogs. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins -9 v. Jets | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Miami has nary a win against teams with a winning record this season, they are 7-0 versus .500 or fewer foes. It’s a Mike McDaniel thing, as he is 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS with Miami against losing teams, including 8-0 ATS in the last eight games. With gang Green just 1-6 ATS in the first of three straight home games and 2-8 ATS on weekdays, we’ll lay the wood in this Black Friday special. |
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11-24-23 | Monmouth +7.5 v. Belmont | 93-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | Charleston Southern +23 v. Wake Forest | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-24-23 | TCU +10 v. Oklahoma | 45-69 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OU is just 1-5 ATS as double-digit chalk when seeking revenge against a less-than .500 conference opponent, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. Yes, at 5-6 this season, it’s been a precipitous fall for a TCU team that played in last season’s CFB Playoff championship game. While the Sooners do own a 20-7 SUATS record in season finales, defending CFB title game losers are 9-2 ATS as dogs the following season – both losses by TCU this season – including 7-0 ATS when facing .800 or greater foes. The Froggies are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing Oklahoma in Norman if they have a .500 or less record, and 4-1 SUATS away off back-to-back home games. |
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11-24-23 | BYU -10 v. Arizona State | 77-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BYU seeks its second 5-0 start in the past three seasons when it faces Arizona State on Thursday night in the opening round of the Vegas Showdown at Las Vegas. 4It isn't hard to pinpoint the most impressive of the Cougars' four straight wins. They took down then-No. 17 San Diego State, a national finalist last season, 74-65 on Nov. 10 in Provo, Utah. BYU is coming off a 93-50 rout of Morgan State on Nov. 18. It marked the third time the Cougars won by more than 40 points this season. Jaxson Robinson led BYU with 19 points, and Fousseyni Traore added 17 in the balanced attack that features seven players averaging at least nine points per game and five in double digits. |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks +7.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Seahawks are 10-2 SU and 9–3-1 ATS at home in this series, including 7-1 SU and 7-0–1 ATS if not coming off an ATS loss of 4 or more points. They are also 8-2 ATS as home dogs of 3-plus points. San Francisco enters 4-9 ATS versus division foe seeking triple revenge, including 1-6 ATS when coming off consecutive wins. And they are winless on Turkey day at 0-2 ATS. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 23-9-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss -10 v. Mississippi State | 17-7 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points of late, compared to Kiffin’s 4-0 ATS march as a road favorite in the same price range. We all know things can get weird when two teams are playing for an Egg Bowl trophy that looks suspiciously like a football, but we’ll count on State’s 4-10 ATS record versus .500 or greater conference foes. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is 15-4 SUATS at home when coming off wins in each of their previous three games, including 9-1 SUATS when they sport a .690 or greater win percentage. Green Bay saved its season by beating the Chargers. Unfortunately, its next two games come against the Lions today and Chiefs next week, and they are riding a 0-4 SUATS mark in the last four games in this series and have topped 24 points on only one occasion this season (in their opener against the Bears). Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points are 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when facing .500 or fewer foes, including 6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. With that, look for Detroit to improve on its current 11-1 ATS record in division contests. |
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11-22-23 | Clippers -8 v. Spurs | 109-102 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won two straight games. They are playing well offensively, averaging more than 112 points per game. They are very good at rebounding the ball and very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Spurs a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Spurs have struggled offensively this season and they've given up at least 120 points in four straight games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Clippers in this game. The Spurs have lost nine straight games and six straight home games. They have struggled offensively and scored less than 110 points in three of their last four games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Clippers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances. They have also been very careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Clippers, who averaged more than 11 steals per game in their last three games. The Clippers have played well defensively, giving up less than 105 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to keep San Antonio’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Teams returning off a SUATS win in Europe are 3-10 ATS, with rest against avenging foes, including 0-3 SUATS versus winning foes. Philly is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS of late in regular season games against .750 or better opponents. On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs are 3-5-1 ATS as regular season favorites against .750 or better opponents. With the Chiefs holding a commanding 3-game lead in the AFC West, we don’t expect to be seeing much urgency tonight, especially since the Eagles are 13-4 SU and 15-2 ATS on Mondays when coming off a SUATS win, including 14-0 ATS when Philadelphia owns a winning record. |
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11-20-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +8.5 | 124-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers, despite being the superior team on paper, have faced their own set of challenges, losing 6 out of their last 7 games. Their sole victory in this stretch was clinched by a last-second three-pointer from James Harden. Adding to their woes, the Clippers haven't secured a single road win this season. While backing the San Antonio Spurs isn't particularly appealing, the prospect of favoring the Clippers with a significant point spread on the road (-9) is equally unenticing. In this scenario, opting for the Spurs with the points seems like the more prudent choice. It's noteworthy that when the Clippers score over 124.2 points, their record against the spread is 0-2, mirroring their overall record in such high-scoring games. |
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11-19-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets dismantled the Lakers last week, but Los Angeles missed Anthony Davis. Houston outscored the Lakers 68-42 in the paint while going 14-for-33 from downtown, whereas Los Angeles made just seven of its 25 shots from deep. Since then, the Lakers have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, though two of those four wins have come against Portland. The Lakers should have learned the lesson, so I’m backing them to beat the Rockets and cover a 5.5-point spread. Davis has struggled a bit of late, but his presence should help the Lakers to outlast Houston this time around. This is not the same Rockets team that lost 60 games last season. But they are still young and inexperienced, and the Rockets have gone 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS over their three road contests in 2023-24. |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Seahawks have allowed more yards than they’ve gained this season. and the ultra-angry Rams enter off their Bye week riding a 0-3 SUATS losing skein. Underdogs in this role are 27-10-1 ATS since 1995. It doesn’t hurt that L.A. is 9-1 ATS the last ten games in this series, including 5-0 ATS when the Seahawks arrive off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, Seattle enters just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven division roadies, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Tie it into the Rams’ 26-16-1 ATS record in division games behind Sean McVay, and McVay’s 4-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive division games when coming off a loss of 7 or more points, plus McVay’s 3-0 ATS career mark as a division dog with a losing record. Finally, the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS as a dog with a week of rest. |
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11-19-23 | Bucs v. 49ers -11.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Niners got off the schneid in a big way in last week’s rout of the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week, and with it, they have reasserted themselves as the team to beat on the road to the Super Bowl. They’ll bring a 15-2 ATS mark as home favorites into the tilt, including 10-0 SUATS from Game Ten out. The Bucs currently enter as the No. 8 overall seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, but are 1-7 ATS against the NFC West and 1-6 ATS after hosting an AFC opponent. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Making his first start after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament last year, Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray was a bit rusty against the Falcons. That’s normal. But with his rushing, his ability to extend plays, his pocket presence and his arm, the downtrodden Cardinals (2-8) are far more competitive with him under center. Murray completed 19-of-32 for 249 yards with no touchdowns against one interception in the Cardinals’ 25-23 win. He also scored a rushing touchdown while gaining 33 yards on the ground on six carries, including a 13-yard scramble on a third-and-10 with 1:50 left in the game that set up the game-winning field goal. Noting Arizona’s 5-1 ATS mark against the AFC South and the Texans’ tepid 1-5 ATS record before hosting a division opponent. Finally, playing against any NFL favorite with a winning record from Game Five out if they won 4 or fewer games last season and are off a SU underdog win in their last game 32-66-4-4 ATS in this role since 1980. Bring them in against an opponent off a win, and they lose almost all of their luster, going 8-29 ATS. To top it off, if the foe is not coming off consecutive home games, these favorites fall to 3-27 ATS. |
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11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at San Jose State minus 14½, and is still minus 14½. Right, we are aware of the fact that the visitor in Spartan games this season stands at 7-1 ATS. However there is another trend in the works, that being Spartans' 5-game spread run (7-2 for the year), covering their last 4 games by 21, 16½, 24½ & 21½. Not only that, but San Jose sits at 5-5 SU, which ensures total dedication in quest for a bowl possibility. The 3-7 Aztecs are just the opposite. On a 1-7 SU run, with their 2 covers since Sept coming by just 1 pt & ½ pt. Revenge raises it head here. |
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11-18-23 | Oregon -23.5 v. Arizona State | 49-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units ASU is 0-3 ATS in their last three before Arizona, 1-5 ATS in the first half of back-to-back home games, 3-9 ATS in last home games when coming off a SUATS win (they shut down UCLA 17-7 last week) and even worse 0-6 ATS when the Sun Devils are coming off a double digit spread win. Oregon is 5-0 ATS as a conference road favorite of 15 or more, 9-1 ATS when favored last game while the opponent was the underdog in its last game. Oregon boasts the nation’s No. 2 offense, run by a Heisman Trophy candidate whose thrown for 3,315 yards, with a 77.7% completion rate, and a TD:INT ratio of 29:2. |
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11-18-23 | Minnesota +27.5 v. Ohio State | 3-37 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The ATS archives favor taking the points with Minnesota this afternoon, as Minny is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses, and coach Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points, plus 4-0 ATS as a double-digit dog versus undefeated foes. The Gophers’ 3-0-1 ATS recent series run coupled with Ohio State’s 1-8 ATS failure before meeting Michigan seals the deal here. Additionally, Game 11 has been the bane of the Ohio State Buckeyes. They are 1-8 ATS the last nine years, 0-7-1 ATS versus a foe off a SUATS loss, and 0-4 ATS when undefeated. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +10.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Vols come in 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games,7-0 ATS when coming off a conference road game, and 6-0 ATS off a loss. Despite their spotless SU record this season, Georgia is a surprising 1-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference road games. Additionally, Defending National Champions are 26-38-1 ATS as road favorites against .700 or greater opponents, including 0-6 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS loss. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game 11 if they are facing a .666 or greater opponent is 17-2-3 ATS. |
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11-18-23 | Coastal Carolina v. Army +4.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Army is a timely 7-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LHGs, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog. As for today’s opponent, the Chanticleers enter this game red hot, riding a 5-0 SUATS win skein, with the last three victories coming as underdogs. However, favorites coming off three consecutive outright wins have struggled to the point that they become prime bounce material the following game. Army is looking for payback, too, from last season’s 38-28 loss as a 1.5-point dog at Coastal. Military teams are 18-9 SU and 15-11 ATS versus Sun Belt Conference teams, including 5-0 SU from Game Eleven out. Finally, Non-conference favorites, coming off three consecutive outright wins, are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS the last five games. |
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11-17-23 | Lakers -8.5 v. Blazers | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Lakers are 2-0 in an inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament, looking to make another step toward the knock-out round. The Trail Blazers have gone 1-1 thus far and will have a mountain to climb in this matchup given their injury woes. Portland has dropped five straight games by an average margin of 10.2 points. If Malcolm Brogdon misses his fourth straight game, the Lakers will have a nice chance to cover an 8.5-point spread. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played on Friday, and I’m expecting the Lakers to extend this streak. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals +4 v. Ravens | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bengals have taken numerous standing 8-counts this season, entering tonight’s contest 1-4 against the AFC, including 0-2 in division games. If they lose this contest, they will have little to no chance in any tiebreakers when it comes to the NFL playoffs. Cincinnati is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last eleven games as a dog behind Burrow, as well as 4-0 ATS away against foes coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Finally, Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS away with Burrow when coming off a loss, including 5-0 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .400 or greater record. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a game that should be low-scoring, the Brooklyn Nets have an excellent chance of pulling off a road upset. Their offense is much better, especially when it comes to hitting threes. Brooklyn attempts a high volume of threes and is the league's third-most accurate team. The Heat have allowed opponents to hit 38.6% of their triples. Unless Miami takes fewer midrange shots, they won't shoot well in this one. The Nets are top 10 at forcing midrange misses and three-point misses. Both defenses are solid, so it'll come down to making shots. Brooklyn has that advantage, and it should lead them to a sixth straight win over the Heat. |
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11-16-23 | Boston College +3 v. Pittsburgh | 16-24 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are 6-1 ATS on weekdays but Boston College is 15-8 ATS as a dog in this series, including 6-0 ATS as dogs off a loss, while Pitt is 0-4 SUATS as a favorite this season. In fact, we’re not sure why a two-win team is laying points to a six-win bowl squad. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Suns to pull away in this game thanks to the return of Booker to the starting lineup and Gordon off of the bench. The duo should allow the Suns to spread the floor against a Timberwolves team playing the second game of a back-to-back and coming off a highly emotional game with the Warriors. Durant should get more minutes of rest in this one with his all-star teammate back and Beal should continue to improve as he gets his wind up after missing the entire season prior to last week. Minnesota has been red-hot but I think it will be too hard for them to muster up the emotions needed in this one. |
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11-15-23 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -8.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami Ohio has not quite clinched the division title yet, needing just one more win against Buffalo or pitiful Ball State (also 3-7), but only a total collapse will keep the RedHawks away from a showdown with Toledo for the conference championship. When it comes to recent ATS history Miami holds all the cards, currently riding an 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS streak, and bringing a salty 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS streak on Wednesdays into the fray. Difficult to take that on with Buffy’s money-burning 2-8 ATS mark in games coming off a SUATS loss. |
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11-15-23 | Central Michigan +11 v. Ohio | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chippewas will have a better shot at springing the upset versus Ohio here as opposed to next week’s season-ender against mighty Toledo. The Chips do sport a nifty 17-3-1 ATS record on Wednesdays to boot, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS away. We also like that the CMU coaching staff has lit a fire under the running game, as they’ve churned out 544 rushing yards in the last two outings while gaining 6.5 yards per carry. Should that ground assault continue, it will be a strength-versus-strength matchup as Ohio’s stalwart rush defense allows just 95 YPG and 3.3 yards per carry. The deal breaker appears to be the Bobcats horrid 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in this series of late, so we’ll take as many points as we can get and back the Chippewas here. |
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11-14-23 | Clippers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets will be making do without point guard Jamal Murray for the rest of the month of November as he recovers from a hamstring strain. So far so good for the champs with Reggie Jackson filling in nicely at point guard, primarily as a scorer with Jokic handling the passing duties. The Clippers still look like a team trying to figure things out with just one ball for several aging stars. Tyronne Lue must determine the best rotations to get his four veterans on the floor in the right situations. Malone's job for Denver is much easier with everything going through Jokic. Jokic has two triple-doubles in the three games that Murray has missed thus far as he takes a more prominent role in distributing the ball. Denver's defense has also been excellent this season and they should be looking forward to defending a Clippers team that looks disjointed right now. The Clippers have also been sloppy with the basketball and that should also feed into the Nuggets' offense. The most disheartening thing for the Clippers thus far has been their feeble record despite having one of the easiest schedules to start the season, ranking 28th in the league. Go with the Nuggets who will have more possessions, ranking 6th in turnovers, and knock down more shots with the league's top field goal percentage. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | Top | 24-22 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Denver checks in 0-9 ATS when coming off an underdog win, 0-7 ATS of late in this series, 0-6 ATS away when coming off consecutive home games, and 1-8 ATS when they are coming off a pair upset wins. And we didn’t even mention the Broncos’ 1-5 ATS ledger on the Monday Night road. Buffalo piles on at 7-0 SUATS in its last seven games as a favorite against the AFC West. They are also 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 SUATS at home. If that’s not enough, then check out that Buffalo is 33-12 SUATS coming off three ATS losses, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win (9-0 ATS at home). |
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11-13-23 | Bulls v. Bucks -9 | 109-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great spot to back Milwaukee. The Bucks just lost two gams on the road, and return home hungry for a win. You cannot keep Giannis and the Bucks down for long, and Giannis has proven he only needs a little help to get things done. The Bulls do not have an answer for Antetokounmpo, Lavine and DeRozan are too small, and Vucevic is not quick enough to stay with him. That leaves Patrick Williams, who was benched for his poor play, or Torrey Craig to matchup with the former MVP. Add on top of this, Chicago is on the tail end of a back to back. The Bulls play a home game on Sunday night, then must travel to Milwaukee for this game the next night. Teams rarely play well on the second night of back-to-backs, and Chicago has not been playing well this season to begin with. Bucks return to home, will face a tired Chicago team, and get back in the win column after a couple losses. |
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11-12-23 | Blazers v. Lakers -9.5 | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The injury-depleted Trail Blazers will have a mountain to climb at Crypto.com Arena. I’ve mentioned their offensive struggles and if Malcolm Brogdon doesn’t suit up, the Lakers will come out on top with ease. Frankly, the Lakers have struggled so far this season, allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions (tied-19th in the NBA). The Trail Blazers surrender 109.8 points per 100 possessions (9th) mostly because they defend the 3-point line well (33.7%, 7th), but the Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting and will attack the rim all night long in this matchup. |
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11-12-23 | Giants v. Cowboys -16.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just when the Giants fan base was hopeful after Daniel Jones' return, a knee injury. NY has trailed by 20+ pts in 4 games already this season. Tommy DeVito had his 1st career TD pass w/ the Giants down 27-0 in the 4th. NY is the 1st team to score less then 16 pts in 7 straight games since Denver in '18-'19. Too many missed opportunities was the difference in Philadelphia last week. Dallas has their longest home winning streak (11) since '91-'92, the 1st year when they won the Super Bowl under Jimmy Johnson. They have outscored their opponents 111-33 at home this year. CD Lamb w/ 11 rec for 191 yards vs Eagles. The Boys check in mad as hell, and they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when coming off a loss. |
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11-12-23 | Browns +6.5 v. Ravens | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The problem at hand today, is Jackson’s inability to deliver the goods as a home favorite with the Ravens, just 13-21 ATS overall and 3-8 ATS in division duels, including 1-5 ATS versus .500 or better foes. That could be a problem down the road for Jackson, considering that every team in the division is 5-3 or better, all playoff qualifiers today. And speaking of defense, Cleveland has now held two different opponents under 100 yards this season, which is impressive, when you consider that no other team has even done it once this season. Also, the Browns are the first team since 1992 to hold multiple teams under 100 yards in one season. Like the Ravens, Cleveland has limited four foes to season-low yards this campaign. We understand the Brownies are 0-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win, but QB Deshaun Watson is 11-2-1 ATS as a dog in this league when his team was favored by more the three points in its previous game. Remember, there was no Watson when the Ravens put a 28-3 beatdown on the Browns in an earlier meeting in October. Finally, Cleveland HC shines in games when installed as a dog of more than 3 points in his career, going 11-4 ATS, including 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge. |
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11-11-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State -20.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 50 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Stanford is 1-8 ATS versus .700 or greater foes and are a pathetic 1-6 ATS as a dog of 17 or more. They are simply not good. Oregon State, now 12th in the CFP rankings, has been the Terminator in this series lately, going 5-1 ATS as the host and are also 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games. |
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11-11-23 | Tennessee v. Missouri +2.5 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 47 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams who lose but cover against a defending national champ are 88-76-1 SU and 88-63-4 ATS the following game since 1980, including 54-31-1 SU and 47-28-1 ATS at home. Those are the kind of long-term numbers we like, and we like head coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s 24-8 outright mark at home, including 5-0 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points. This battle of 7-2 squads could determine the difference between a New Year’s Day invite and a late-December bowl game for these two very good teams. However, the Vols’ 3-6 spread record vs .750-or-better conference opponents, along with a 1-5 ATS mark in SEC games when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, sends us on the way to the home team. |
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11-11-23 | Miami-FL +14.5 v. Florida State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Miami is 10-3 ATS as a dog in this series, including 7-1 ATS away. The Hurricanes are also 5-1 ATS as a dog after scoring 6 or fewer points in their last game when facing a foe off a win, including 3-0 SUATS versus greater than .800 opponents. All this may be falling on deaf ears after Miami’s 20-6 loss to NC State last week but when the Canes are held to 10 or fewer points they bounce back with aplomb, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than 16 points. The Hurricanes actually outgained NC State in the defeat while holding the Pack to 216 total yards of offense. More bad luck for FSU: the series host is on a 2-7 ATS slide. Finally, Florida State is 0-10 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite when facing a foe coming off a loss as a favorite. |
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11-11-23 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Anytime Vegas makes ASU the underdog, they deliver, going 10-1-1 ATS in their Sun Belt days and 9-1-1 ATS overall when on the receiving end of points in their last 11 games. Georgia State was rocked last week by conference leader James Madison, 42-14, and that was fresh off being blown out by Georgia Southern the week before when State gave up 44 points. The Mountaineers have won two straight games, combining for 80 points in wins over Southern Miss and Marshall and ASU QB Joey Aguilar has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season but for the loss at Wyoming. ASU is the better offensive AND defensive team. Finally, since joining FBS in 2013 the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win. |
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11-11-23 | Michigan v. Penn State +5.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 25 m | Show |
BIG-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Consider that 9-0 teams hitting the road for Game 10 are 30-47-1 ATS since 1982 including 6-20-1 ATS when facing teams with competent defenses, giving up 20.5 ppg or fewer. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS with double conference revenge. James Franklin is 15-5-1 ATS at home with conference vengeance on the evidence table, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS with a win percentage of .800. Finally, Penn State is 8-3 SU against undefeated opponents under James Franklin when the Lions allow fewer than 12 PPG including 7-0 by an average win of 22.4 PPG. |
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11-11-23 | Georgia Tech +14.5 v. Clemson | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Georgia Tech is probably the LAST team Clemson wants to see right now while it’s sandwiched between Notre Dame and North Carolina. The numbers don’t lie, and they tell us the Wreck is 8-1 ATS the last nine games as a dog, and 8-2 ATS in games when both teams come off SUATS wins. Clemson, who may still be celebrating last Saturday’s win, are just 1-5 ATS the last six games when coming off a win. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 15-0-1 ATS. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bears | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Any excitement this Bears franchise had about Tyler Bagent is over, as they have lost their last two games, and Bagent has been a turnover machine. The Bears have the worst turnover differential in the league, and it has just gotten worse since Fields went down. The Bears are not good enough to be laying more than a field goal, Chicago has not covered a game as a favorite this season, in-fact they have only been a favorite once all year. The Panthers coaching staff may be fighting for their job, as rumors have swirled that coach Reich may be out after one year. The team will want to put Bryce Young in the best position for success, he was drafted first overall for a reason and will prove it against this weak Bears' defense. This game is on a short week, and it will not give Bagent time to prepare adequately, especially since the team is unsure if Fields will return. We'll side with the team with the potential future star quarterback, as opposed to the team with a backup who keeps turning it over. |
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11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville -20.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one way to go, as host in Card games is a perfect 14-0, covering by 13, 19½, & 17½, & 20 points , with a 57-3 point edge in L2 home games. Cavs covered L2 road games by 27½ & 15½, but in off having 7-3 edge over Ga Tech, evolve into 45-17 loss. Now at #107 & #93 in rushing "O" & "D". |
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11-07-23 | Auburn +1.5 v. Baylor | 82-88 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baylor lost a lot after last season, which will be hard to replicate early. Four of their five starters are gone, which took 68% of Baylor's scoring with them. The team's offense carried them in the 2022-23 campaign, and there's reason to doubt if the many newcomers can match last year's offense. Improving defensively is a massive question mark too. Looking at Auburn, they were a much more balanced team last season. They lost two key players, but most of last year's rotation is back. That continuity will be massive to begin the season, especially on the defensive end. The Tigers will come out roaring and earn an early Quadrant 1 win. |
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11-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets +2 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Sacramento was a force last season as they won the Pacific Division title while their run and gun offense was a force. This season, they have had their struggles shooting the ball, entering Sunday fourth-worst in the league in field goal percentage as a team. Without Fox, it puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell to try and step up to be a facilitator. Houston has looked good in their last two games, wins over Charlotte and Sacramento, and look to make it three straight wins at home. This Rockets team won’t be the same pushover they have been in recent seasons. If Fox was playing, the Kings would be the easy call here but without him, Sacramento muddles their way through. Take the Rockets at home in this one. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +2.5 | 112-100 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trailblazers have won three straight games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better offensively during their winning streak, averaging 108 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their chances at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been good and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, but they haven’t looked good so far, and they’re giving up more than 120 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Trailblazers in this game. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games and three straight road games. They have struggled offensively on the road where they are scoring less than 110 points per game. They also struggled at the charity stripe and barely made over 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Trailblazers and they’ve been careless with the ball, turning it over more than 15 times per game, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Trailblazers, who are averaging more than nine steals per game in their last three games. With the Blazers holding opponents under 105 points per game in their last three games, expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Portland to win outright. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2 v. Bengals | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has been struggling so much of the year, yet is only one game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East. Nevertheless, they’ll take the field this evening knowing they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six regular games against the AFC Central, as well as 13-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off SUATS wins. |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys +3 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Dallas has 11 wins in a row at AT&T Stadium, the league’s longest current run of dominance at home, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 road games. However, they are also 6-1 SUATS in their last seven division games as a road dog of fewer than 4 points. Mike McCarthy chips in with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games with a .500 or greater record with Dallas. The Cowboys enter this division duke out at 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, while first-place Philly is 5-12 ATS in division home games against avenging opponents, including 1-5 ATS when the Eagles sport a winning record. Finally, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS in division games, including 7-1 SUATS during the first half of the season. |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks +6 v. Ravens | 3-37 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pete Carroll is 52-36-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks, including 16-7-1 ATS as a single-digit dog versus .750 or greater opposition. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the home team is 26-43-3 ATS in Lamar Jackson’s NFL starts, and Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in the first of three straight home game, while QB Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as an NFL home favorite, including 1-7 ATS when the Ravens are coming off an ATS loss of -3 or more points. |
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11-04-23 | Oregon State -13 v. Colorado | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CU is 1-4 ATS in their last five and the primary culprit has been the defense, giving up 37.6 points and 442 yards per game in those five games. Much like Deion, we’ve kept the receipts too and they point out Colorado is 0-15 ATS as conference home dog of 13 or greater. Oregon State is 3-1 in the last four and 9-1 ATS as a conference road favorite of 7 or greater. |
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11-04-23 | Bulls v. Nuggets -8.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here and their third game in four nights so fatigue could be a factor. Obviously, you’ll have to keep an eye out to see if any of the star players on either side sit out, which would obviously change the dynamic. With that said, the Nuggets are the defending champions and they have one of, if not the, top player in the league with Jokic. Denver is stingy defensively, extremely efficient on the offensive end of the floor and they have the better talent to work with compared to Chicago. We’ve seen the Bulls struggle to shoot the ball with any consistency this season. Look for the Nuggets to prevail at home for this contest. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | Top | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The Huskies are 2-8 ATS as road chalk, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against Pac 12 foes .666 or better in the W and L column and in their last four games UDub is 0-3-1 ATS. The Trojans are 8-2-1 ATS when the underdog. As a Coliseum dog, the Men of Troy are 16-10-1 ATS including 7-3 ATS vs. the undefeated. Riley is 40-3 ATS in his career at home. Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opponents and 3-0 ATS as a conference dog. |
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11-04-23 | California v. Oregon -24.5 | 19-63 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine games after USC. Put Cal on the road, toss a big number at them and the Bears run, run, run away, going 3-11 ATS as conference road dog of 14 or greater and you wouldn’t be alone wondering what’s left in the Golden Bears tanks after the SC loss. Oregon has gone 5-0 ATS against teams coming at them with double conference revenge in mind and unlike Cal, which seemingly can’t handle the Trojans in a cracked rearview mirror, Oregon loves looking into the future, going 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS prior to tangling with Tommy Trojan. This includes a very healthy 7-0 SUATS vs teams that allow 30 or more PPG. |
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11-04-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State +6 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
BIG-12 Play of the Day The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last four Bedlam confrontations, but plenty of the numbers going into this year’s edition are not so pretty. Oklahoma is 4-15-1 as conference road chalk of 6 points or more, 1-4 against the number in Game 9, and 1-4 against the number versus single conference revenge. Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS as home dogs of less than 14 points and 6-0 ATS w/ single conference revenge. Additionally, Okie State is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with a conference opponent. Finally, the Cowboys are 18-10 SU and 18-9-1 ATS at home under Gundy against foes with a better win percentage, including 12-2 SUATS the last fourteen contests |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Wildcats are 5-1 in Game 9 and 9-3 ATS versus.750 or better SEC foes. KSU’s Chris Kleiman holds all the edges, starting with a 34-19-1 ATS overall mark since joining the Wildcats in 2019, including 13-4 SU and 12-4-1 ATS against Big 12 foes coming off a SUATS win (8-0 SUATS over the last two seasons). Steve Sarkisian is 23-24 SU and 20-27 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 2-8 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents. Finally, confidence is high right now for Kleiman’s team, as they shut-out Houston last week, 41-0. |
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11-04-23 | Notre Dame v. Clemson +3 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Notre Dame is just 8-16 ATS as road chalk against avenging foes, including 1-8 ATS against foes who surrender fewer than 25 PPG. Be aware that Clemson fell 38-14 in South Bend last season and when we pair that with a strong 6-2 mark in their last 8 meetings with the Irish, we are looking at this game in a totally different light. Dabo Swinney has a 19-6 SU career mark in games in which his Tigers sport a .500-or-less win percentage, and he’s lost three straight games only twice in his career. Finally playing on any college football underdog from Game Seven out during the regular season if they were a bowl team last season and are coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite and they are facing a greater than .700 foe off a SU double-digit win is e 28-14-1 ATS in this role since 1990, including 24-8-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU win. Better yet, when taking on these same foes coming off a SUATS win, they’ve gone 15-2 ATS since 2011. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs +7 v. Nuggets | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'll gladly take Dallas to cover, with Denver coming off a blowout loss and dealing with injuries to stars Murray and Jokic! The Mavs have the third-highest schedule-adjusted offensive rating, including the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage (58.2%). They have been especially dominant in the paint (67.7 rim FG%) and from three-point range (41.0%). I expect Doncic (33.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG) to have another monster game, leading the Mavs to an easy cover against the Nuggets. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first four games of this season for Syracuse had the look of a painted masterpiece when they went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, winning the stats in every contest by an average 267 yards per game. Then Orange went 0-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats), losing by an average margin of -18.5 PPG and an average stat loss of -302 net YPG. Boston College has won four straight games compared to Da Cuse’s four consecutive losses. In fact, the Eagles bring an 8-0 ATS ledger into this brawl when coming off a home favorite win, as well as a 5-1 ATS mark on Weekdays. BC is also looking to get even for back-to-back losses to the Orange, and Syracuse owns a dreadful 0-5 ATS record at home versus double revenge. Considering Syracuse has scored just 34 total points in their 4-game slide, the Eagles’ 6-2 ATS success when playing with double conference revenge gives us the win. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz +1.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be rested and ready to go despite playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight. They will also challenge the Magic's preference for a slower-paced game won in the paint by spacing the floor and forcing Orlando to defend well outside the paint. Orlando is playing the fourth and final game of this trip and is 1-2 thus far, losing each of the last two contests. Orlando's defense has progressively gotten worse on the trip highlighted by the 118 points allowed against the Clippers. The Jazz were able to defeat the Clippers earlier this season because of their ability to match the scoring of LA from long range. Expect the Jazz to stretch the floor and keep the Magic off balance on Thursday night to pick up the home win. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh has four wins, and the Black-and-Gold’s offense has scored 12, 23, 17, and 24 points, respectively, in each – or an average average of 19 points per contest. It’s brutal. In fact, it’s eerily similar to another Black-and-Gold college football offense we’ve come to despise this season – Iowa. With it, the 3-4 Titans bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray against the 4-3 Steelers. With Tennessee a tidy 7-0-1 ATS in Game Eight’s the past eight seasons and the Burgers 0-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of -3 or more points. |
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11-02-23 | TCU +3 v. Texas Tech | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frogs dress up as a defending Playoff Championship Game losing dog, and while they are the only team to have failed in this role (8-1 ATS) since the inception of the College Football Playoff, (and they failed miserably in a 41-3 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago in their last appearance). Tech is an undependable 1-5 ATS when arriving off a SU favorite loss and they show up trending downward on a 0-2 SUATS skein. Don’t forget this: TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is 8-3 ATS as a dog when his team is playing with rest, including 3-0 SUATS versus losing foes. |
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10-30-23 | Jazz v. Nuggets -8 | 102-110 | Push | 0 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even playing for the second straight day, whereas the Jazz are rested, home-court advantage should neutralize that aspect. Then, it's simply a question of whether or not the Jazz defense can stop Denver's offense. The answer based on what has transpired this season is an emphatic no. The Nuggets offense, currently the best in adjusted offensive rating, won't struggle to score at all against Utah. Scoring won't come as easy for the Jazz, who won't get many good looks from deep against Denver. A 4-0 start comes easily for the Nuggets. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units Detroit returns home where they are 13-2-1 ATS as a host since Thanksgiving day in 2021. They are also 7-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a SUATS loss. And then there are the Raiders, who rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 69 yards on the ground, despite having Josh Jacobs in the backfield, which goes to the abilities of Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Note that home teams on Monday Night Football are a resolute 31-18 ATS since 1980 when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. Finally, Lions’ head coach Campbell is 17-8-1 ATS at home as an NFL head coach, as well as 18-6 ATS in games in which his squad hold foes to 100 or fewer rush yards, including 14-1 ATS the last 15 games. |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have been turning the ball over a lot thus far. Also, their defense has struggled a lot, so I’m backing the Clippers to bounce back from a tough loss in Salt Lake City. Los Angeles should play better defense in front of the home audience and take full advantage of the Spurs’ D. San Antonio has allowed a staggering 132 points in the paint through its first two outings in 2023-24, and the Spurs will struggle to contain the Clippers’ drives to the hoop. The Clippers went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Spurs last regular season. San Antonio has only covered once in its last four road games against the Clippers, who trounced the Spurs 138-100 in their previous encounter at Crypto.com Arena. |
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10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers -8.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite having the luxury of golden-armed QB Justin Herbert, Brandon Staley is looking over his shoulder with the poor performance by the Chargers this season. They sport the 31st-ranked (2nd worst) overall defense in the league and have outgained only two opponents in overall yardage this season (by 01 and 41 yards). Still, with Chicago 0-5 SUATS off a win, as well as 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, it’s difficult casting a glance their way tonight, especially with Bagent making his second NFL start. Look for the Bolts to improve to 5-1 ATS under Staley in games when coming off consecutive losses tonight. |
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10-29-23 | Jets v. Giants +3 | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 50 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units With Saquon Barkley back in the starting lineup, expect Big Blue to attack a lean Green rush defense that is 16-34 ATS in the last 50 games in which it allowed 100-plus yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Jets have not won a game when coming off a Bye week since 2015, going 1-10 outright, including seven straight losses since 2015 (0-2 SUATS under Robert Saleh), while the Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Giants are 8-4 ATS as a pick or dog in non-division games under Brian Daboll, including 3-0 SUATS versus .500 or fewer opponents. |
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10-29-23 | Patriots v. Dolphins -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Now that Belichick is breathing without a bit after last weeks win, we’ll look to fade him in a series he’s gone 0-6 ATS of late while bringing a 1-9 ATS dog-log into this affair, while his counterpart Mike McDaniel looks to improve on his 7-2 ATS mark in division games (3-0 SUATS at home). |
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10-29-23 | Falcons v. Titans +2.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is on top of the AFC South for the first time in eight seasons, despite a minus-18-point differential. To which they can thank a defense that ranks No. 4 overall, allowing a mere 285 YPG. The Titans’ hope is coming off a Bye week, where they are 6-0 ATS in this series when rested, and a 5-0 ATS log at home before hitting the highway in the next two games, which should fit like a glove into the Falcons’ flighty 3-12 ATS record away in games when coming off an away contest. |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A positive omen is the fact that NFL underdogs who have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last two games are 7-2 ATS the past nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a non-division contest. On the flip side, the Texans check is 0-4 ATS as a favorite after dressing up as a dog in their previous game. With Carolina 4-0 ATS in this series, and 7-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Bye, and 9-2 ATS against AFC South opponents, we’ll fade a Houston squad that is 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a Bye. With the Texans having 11 players on the IR, which ties with the Colts and Falcons for most in the league, look for the Panthers to win today. |
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10-28-23 | Oregon State v. Arizona +3 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Week Rating; 5 Units Jedd Fisch rebuild, now in its third year and very much on track. Last week they embarrassed Washington State 44-6 for the Wildcats largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent. Oregon State is a solid, well-coached outfit to be sure and QB DJ Uiagalelei has finally stopped having screaming nightmares about Clemson Coach Dabo Sweeney. DJ hasn’t been picked since September 30th vs. Utah. Watch for the starting QB for Fisch- early in the week he had not announced if RS-Freshman Noah Fifita gets the nod against over the injured vet Jayden de Laura. If he plays, it’s a game changer in favor of U of A since the Hawaii native is completing a very nice 69% of his passes and has three rushing TD’s. Jedd Fisch is 4-0 ATS as a dog versus teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins. AZ is 4-2 ATS and 6-0 SU in this series when coming off a win of 28 points or greater and they’re 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs. Finally, the Beavers are 1-7-1 ATS as road favorites of fewer than seven points, including 0-6-1 ATS vs sub .600 opponents. |
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10-28-23 | Jazz +5.5 v. Suns | 104-126 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm going to assume that Booker misses this game, because there's no reason to play him with an injury that could linger and needs rest. In that case, Durant will have to score 40 in this one and while he might, his supporting cast is very weak without Booker and Beal. Markkanen, in a lot of ways, is a poor man's Durant, in the way he can score at that size and Collins gives them another capable big man scorer. That sizeable frontcourt will be difficult to defend for the smaller Suns. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +11.5 | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Georgia Tech has been a major thorn in North Carolina’s side for two straight years, winning 21-17 at home as a +21.5-dog last season, and 45-22 at home as a +14.5-point-dog in 2021. That’s just the tip of the bad-news iceberg for the Heels, as they’re 2-15 ATS when coming off a conference home game and head coach Mack Brown is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in his career when coming off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings, plus they’re a stout 6-1 ATS of late when taking points. If that sounds like too much for the downtrodden Tar Heels to overcome in Atlanta tonight, consider that playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater opponent has produced a 27-45-2 ATS overall ATS mark since 1980. Better yet, put these same unassuming squads up against an opponent coming off a loss, and they become a 5-20-1 ATS fade (North Carolina). |
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10-28-23 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowpokes return home to Stillwater off three straight upset, underdog wins knowing they are 0-8 ATS as a favorite when coming off a win of more than ten points as a dog. With Bedlam rival Oklahoma on deck, look for another Homecoming favorite to bite the dust here, as long as the Bearcats can slow down RB Ollie Gordon II. As for Cincy, the Bearcats are on series of bad runs, but playing against any college football favorite of -4 or more points coming off three consecutive underdog wins if they are facing an opponent that is not coming off a win of 24 or more points is 11-1 ATS, and we don’t turn our back on 91% winning propositions. Additionally, Scott Satterfield is 8-4-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-28-23 | Colorado v. UCLA -17 | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units CU has been outgained by an average of 75 yards per game this season and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road dog appearances, 1-9 ATS coming off a home loss, 1-6 ATS as the dog after being the favorite last game. The Bruins are one of ten remaining teams that has outgained their foes in every game this season. Colorado is last in the FBS world defensively, and UCLA is 7-1 ATS off a win vs. a team coming off a loss. |
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10-28-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +14.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 34 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan Day’s team is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites of 14 points or more, 1-6 ATS in Game 8 and 1-6 ATS against the number after butting heads with Penn State. It is strange to see the Big Ten West division leader installed as a 14-point home dog, but that is the hand the Badgers are being dealt today. Additionally, Wisconsin is a perfect 10 ATS when getting more than six points as a home underdog. |
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10-28-23 | Oklahoma v. Kansas +9.5 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 6 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units KU is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of this series and a most impressive 7-0-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents that give up more than 14 PPG. (OU is a still stingy 16.4 PPG). Can Oklahoma stop the run? The Sooners are going to have to, because Kansas has a two headed rushing combo of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Junior who have combined for nearly 1,100 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns so far. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS when coming off a conference home game. Finally, Jayhawks Head Coach Lance Leipold is 29-10-1 ATS at home in FBS play, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents and 12-1-1 ATS when his team is .700 or better. Rock, Go Against the Chalk, KU! |
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10-27-23 | Nets v. Mavs -6 | 120-125 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has more weapons and has their identity figured out early in the season, while Brooklyn doesn't. The Maverick's backcourt of Doncic and Irving can be relied upon to score at least 40 points per night. Both guards have the ability to penetrate and draw the defense in, and that is why the front office surrounded the team with shooters. Williams, Kleber, Hardaway Jr. and Green all hit multiple threes in the opener. This creates more spacing and synergy in the offense. The Nets cannot rely on Cam Thomas to score 36 every night. Clearly, that is not the plan, but what is Brooklyn's identity? Ben Simmons no longer plays like an All-Star, and it has yet to be seen if Mikal Bridges can truly carry an NBA team as the top player on the squad. Dallas outrebounded the taller San Antonio in the opener, and can dominate inside here as well. Take the Mavericks as the better team in this early-season matchup. |