NIT Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Illinois State’s outstanding home court form (14-2) and elite defense are certainly legit concerns for an Auburn Tigers team that has struggled on the road (2-8) all season. In my view, Illinois State’s quality defense and home court edge will help keep the Redbirds inside the number (7.5) tomorrow night. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Illinois State Redbirds plus the points in this game.

Elite 8 Game of the Week

Rating 5 Units

The Wildcats have the edge in this game because they’re playing well offensively, scoring more than 90 points per game in the tournament, while making over 52 percent of their shots. They do a good job of finding the open man, and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than 12 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball, and won’t give up many easy-scoring chances. The Boilermakers have struggled defensively in the tournament, giving up more than 72 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Wildcats. Take Arizona to cover the spread.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The line has moved two full points in the Razorbacks' direction over the past 48 hours, driven by consistent public and dollar-side support that began with sharp opening-night action. A team built around a scorer averaging 30 points per game with two additional weapons now capable of producing 20 does not get spotted nearly a touchdown against any opponent without genuine value attached. Arizona is the better overall team, and Burries and Bradley are legitimate, but the Wildcats have not faced anything resembling Acuff's current form this season. Arkansas has a puncher's chance to win outright and an excellent chance to keep this within single digits.

South Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

I’ll stay with Houston. The Cougars have been quite impressive in the two games of this tournament so far, and they’re essentially playing a home game here. Houston demolished Texas A&M in their last outing thanks to a 42-27 rebounding edge, a 32-20 advantage in the paint and just 34.6 percent shooting allowed on defense. The Cougars are 7-1 in their last eight outings with a nice 69 or more points scored in every one of those games. As for Illinois, they had a great second half against a plucky VCU team, eventually shooting 48.3 percent from the field with 34.8 percent allowed on defense. The Illini added a 40-26 edge on rebounding but did miss a few free throws on 64.7 percent (11-of-17) and had 11 turnovers. Illinois has rolled through their two games pretty easily during this tournament as well, however the ghost of a second-half breakdown in the Big Ten Tournament loss to Wisconsin looms large.

East Region Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

I’m on St. John’s here. I think the Red Storm are the better team in this matchup, and while a lot of folks will clamor for Darryn Peterson to be the best player on the floor, I think Zuby Ejiofor can be a point of contention for that. The Red Storm are no joke and I just didn’t love what I saw from Kansas against Cal Baptist. I’ll side with the Johnnies here.

East Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

In this Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction, Michigan State is coming as -4 favorites. Michigan State has an easy one in the opening round, winning by 25 points and have the 26th-best defense in the nation. On the flip side, Louisville had trouble against USF in the first round and is 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 games. Their defense has been struggling lately and are 1-3 in their last four head-to-head meetings against Michigan State. I like Michigan State in this spot, so lay the short number with them in this matchup.

East Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Furman has had a great season coming into the tournament, but it will face a juggernaut on Friday night. The Uconn Huskies are going to come into this match-up with a terrible taste in their mouth following their blowout loss last time out. Look for the Huskies to dominate this game in every aspect as they roll to an easy victory Friday night. Take UConn to get an easy blowout, getting cover Friday night in Philadelphia as they roll into the second round.

Tournament Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

In my view, St. John’s overall physicality and athleticism force Northern Iowa into a style of play that is not conducive to the Panthers ability to succeed in this contest. St. John’s ability to control game pace and quality frontcourt play should be the difference in this one. I like the Red Storm to pull away in the second half and win this game rather easily. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the St. John’s Red Storm to cover the points in this game.

Inner-Circle

Rating: 4 Units

In this Pennsylvania vs Illinois Prediction, Illinois coming as -25.5 favorites. Illinois has been the far better team but they were eliminated in the Big 10 quarterfinals by Wisconsin. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games and 1-4 against the spread, but are a top-45 team in the nation both offensively and defensively. Penn has been red-hot lately, with a 9-1 record both overall and against the spread in its last 10 games and won the Ivy league, so I don’t think they deserve to be such huge underdogs. The points are too many so I will get the +25.5 points with Penn in this one.

Final Four Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

The Blue Devils come into this game 3-1 ATS in the tournament thus far. They have an astounding +94 edge in scoring margin. The Cougars are 2-1-1 ATS in the tournament and have a scoring margin edge of +16. The Blue Devils' length all over the court has given their opponents fits thus far, and that will be true against the Cougars as well. Houston's ability to protect the ball has been paramount to their success, but the Blue Devils are just as stingy at protecting the basketball. As well as Houston has played defensively, the Blue Devils have been that much better offensively. They are shooting the ball at nearly a 60 percent clip, including nearly 50 percent from 3-point range. The Cougars don't have that kind of firepower on the offensive end. Defensively, while Houston has held the opposition to 37 percent shooting, the Blue Devils have been slightly better, holding teams to 36 percent shooting. Houston would likely be the favorite against each of the other two teams in the Final Four, but this is just a bad matchup for them.

NIT Super Play

Rating: 4 Units

Oddsmakers are making Chattanooga an underdog yet again and we’re going to keep grabbing the points. Chattanooga has not only won every game this tournament as an underdog, but the Mocs have won each of their last eight games as an underdog. Chattanooga has lost just one game since January 25 and is 23-12 ATS on the season overall. UC Irvine is playing winning ball as well and is probably the more talented team overall, especially with its top-40 scoring defense. Still, Chattanooga has thrived in the underdog role time and time again. I’ll keep grabbing the points with Chattanooga.

Tournament Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

These teams have met only once, and it was back in 2018 when Texas Tech won 69-66. Florida proved to be one of the most dominant teams in the NCAA tournament so far and is on a nine-game winning streak, so the Red Radiers will have a mountain to climb in order to advance to the Final Four. The Gators are excellent against the spread this year, and they have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 32 games. I believe that reaching the Elite 8 is the maximum for Texas Tech, and it has a slim chance to participate in the Final Four. Florida is better offensively and are in top form, so I am backing the Gators to win and cover.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

I’m staying with Duke. The Blue Devils are a force to be reckoned with these days, and they’re tearing right through the schedule. Duke dispatched a good Baylor team without too much difficulty in their last outing, hitting an excellent 64.4 percent from the field, 54.5 percent (12-of-22) from outside and 82.6 percent (19-of-23) from the line. The only real blemish was the 32-29 rebounding deficit (18-3 offensive), but a lot of that came in relative garbage time.  That makes 73 or more points in 13 straight games (all wins) for Duke. As for Arizona, they were able to power their way past a pesky Oregon squad thanks to 45.5 percent shooting and a 44-37 rebounding edge in their last outing. The Wildcats have posted 86 or more points in four of the last five games (all four were wins), so this one’s got the potential for a very high total. In the end I like Duke to fend off the Wildcats, though.

NIT Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

In this Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs UC-Irvine Anteaters Prediction, UC-Irvine is coming as -7.5-point favorites. UC-Irvine is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and are very good at home, while Jacksonville State is below average on the road. Both teams are coming in good form, as UC Irvine is 7-1 in their last 8 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5. UC-Irvine has trouble covering spreads at home, as they are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games. Jacksonville State is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and have been great covering on the road, as they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games. Given both teams’ recent form, the value here lies with the road dog, as I expect them to keep this large spread close. Take the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the +7.5 points on the road in this one.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

This isn’t the same Baylor teams as years past, and that will show up in a big way here. Sure, the ACC hasn’t been as good this season as shown in the NCAA tournament, but I don’t think that takes away from how good this Duke team is. In the last game of the ACC tournament, Duke beat Louisville by 11 points, and they are similar to the Baylor team. It doesn’t matter who it was; Duke ran up the score against anyone, and they will run it up again here. Flagg and company will have a big game, and Duke will end up cruising here. Back Duke against the spread.

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating; 4 Units

I’m staying with Florida. The Gators have been quite impressive during this win streak, and they’re coming off a dominant win over Norfolk State. In that one Florida shot a nice 48.3 percent from the field with a 41-28 rebounding edge, 20 team assists and 27-of-33 (81.8 percent) from the line. The lone blemish was the 12 turnovers, resulting in 14 Spartans points. Norfolk State has won seven straight games, hitting their stride with 86 or more points in each. As for UConn, they tamped down Oklahoma’s offense in their win this week, giving up just 32.1 percent shooting from the field and posting a 41-34 rebounding advantage. The Huskies are 6-1 in their last seven games, with 72 or more points in each victory. UConn will serve as a stout test for Florida here if the Huskies play well. That said, I like the Gators to power it out in the end and continue their excellent run.

NCAAB Dog of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Wisconsin Badgers (27-9, 22-13-1 ATS) didn't play their best basketball late in the regular season as they lost three of the final five games. Wisconsin lost to Oregon, Michigan State, and Penn State, but managed to clinch the No. 5 seed for the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers beat Northwestern, UCLA, and the No. 1 Michigan State to reach the conference finals, but Michigan was better 59-53.  Wisconsin is averaging 79.9 PPG (43rd) and is allowing 70.3 PPG (124th). The Badgers are getting 36.6 RPG (129th) and dish out 14.6 APG (123rd). John Tonje is the team’s top performer with 19.1 PPG and 5.3 RPG. John Blackwell has 15.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.2 APG, while Steven Crowl contributes 9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 2.5 APG.

Tournament Crusher

Rating: 4 Units

These teams have never met before. UConn has been in better form recently and the Huskies have a stronger defense, which, I believe, will be crucial in this encounter. Oklahoma is good when it comes to covering the spread this season and it managed to cover in each of the previous seven games. The bettors who follow trends would likely back the Sooners to cover, but not me. I can't ignore the fact that the Huskies are back-to-back national champions and that they have experience of playing big games. I am going with UConn.

NCAAB Upset Special

Rating: 4 Units

In this UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Michigan is coming as -2.5-point favorites. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, as the Tritons have a better record this season, and are one of the best road teams in the nation this season, having 12 wins away from home, while Michigan has 7.  UC-San Diego is better than Michigan both offensively, scoring 1.5 points more, and defensively, allowing 9.6 points less. Michigan has won their last three games, having covered the spread in all, but they had lost their three previous games before that. UC-San Diego is coming off 15 consecutive wins, and are 13-2 against the spread. This is another spot, where the most popular team of the matchup gets to be the favorite, but the value in this matchup lies with the underdog. I like UC-San Diego Tritons to win this one outright, so I will gladly take the +2.5 points in my back pocket.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas finished below .500 in SEC play this year, but they won five of their last seven games to sneak into the field. The Razorbacks have some defensive issues for sure, but they can score points very quickly and they have scored at least 80 points in five of their last seven. Kansas had a disappointing season in Big 12 play and they have also had some defensive concerns, as they have allowed 88, 94, and 76 points in their last three games. Kansas has some great non-conference wins, but I can’t trust them with how they have played over the last month. Take Arkansas and the points here.

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

This should be a fantastic matchup to start the Tournament on Thursday afternoon, as both teams lost in their conference championship games. Creighton has won four of their last five games, but they have had consistency issues and barely beat DePaul just three games ago. Louisville has won 11 of their last 12 games, but they had a close call with a below-average Stanford team three games ago. Creighton is the better shooting team and I really like the duo of Kalkbrenner and Ashworth. This is going to be a tight game to the very end, but I think Creighton gets the job done behind a huge game from Kalkbrenner.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The regression clouds have been swirling around Ann Arbor for the last month, and this looks like another attractive spot to try and attack the Wolverines. Since January 16, Michigan is 8-3 straight-up but just 2-9 against the spread. Those eight wins have come by: 4 (in OT), 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 3 and 3 points. Rutgers has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings in this Big Ten matchup. One of those narrow three-point wins that we just mentioned came in Piscataway where Michigan earned a 66-63 win, but Rutgers stayed within the number as a home 'dog. Scarlet Knights' star freshman Dylan Harper did not play in that contest, but he is back in the lineup and scored 25 points with nine assists against USC on Sunday. Michigan has been playing with too much fire over the last month for us to lay a number like this.

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UConn is destroying their competition, as they won by 39 over Stetson, 17 over Northwestern, and 30 over San Diego State. Their backcourt carried them in the Sweet 16, as they got 18 points from Cam Spencer, and 17 points from Tristen Newton in the win. Newton was a First Team All-American this season and led the team with 15.3 PPG and 6.1 APG as a 6'5 senior guard. He has scored 13 or more in each of the three tournament games, with a high of 20 coming against Northwestern. Spencer is their outside shooter, he is a 6'4 senior guard averaging 14.5 PPG and has knocked down 94 threes on the season on a red-hot 44.1% shooting from deep. Their big man inside is 7'2, 280-pound sophomore Donovan Clingan, he averages 12.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on the inside. Alex Karaban is another member of the sophomore class, the 6'8 forward can shoot from the outside and adds 13.6 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman guard getting 10.9 PPG, he had 16 in the win over San Diego State. UConn is currently ranked 1st overall in KenPom. They have the top overall offense in the nation in terms of efficiency and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. They play much slower than the Illini, ranking 319th in the nation in pace of play. UConn is 25-11 ATS as favorite and 16-4 road/neutral