Notre Dame +9 3.3% play 

Texas +6 3.3% play 

Penn St / Notre Dame Under 45.5 3.3% play

Penn State +100 4% play

This should be a great game against two similar teams, but I think Penn State has the advantage here.  Not only do they have the health advantage as Notre Dame's RB Love is not 100%, they'll be without MIlls on their defensive line again, but Penn State has the extra two days or preparation and freshness.  I also believe Drew Allar's ability to make great decisions when pressured will be the difference in the game and don't sleep on Penn State's ability to run the ball in this game, and they have proven they can take away running QB's, which is something Georgia struggled with all year.

Buffalo -2.5 2.2% play 

Minnesota -6.5 3.3% play 

North TExas / Texas State Under 65 3.3% play 

Notre Dame / Georgia Under 45.5 3.3% play

Georgia +1.5 1.1% play 

Oregon +3 -115 f5.5% MAX NFL POD

Oregon will get two guys back for this game that missed the game at Oregon on their defensive line, which should be a net benefit.  They’ll also get to face Ohio State without a starting Tackle.  I think Ohio State played out of their mind against Tennessee at home.  This is still a very inconsistent team, and I think they showed their A game already.  They’ll have revenge against Oregon, but Oregon’s offense was able to do whatever they wanted against Ohio State, and it did not phase their veteran QB in the least bit.  I think the winner of this game is likely headed to the National Championship, but this should be a very close back and forth game tight until the end. I think Oregon has the better head coach and QB here and will take the points.

Arizona State +13.5 2.2% play 

Boise State +11 3.3% play

Penn State was a 9 point favorite at home to SMU.  The ACC has gone 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in bowl games this year and if SMU did not give up 3 defensive TD’s that game could easily have been different..  The Mountain West is 10-2 ATS as a double digit dog in bowl games.  Boise also played right with Oregon on the road as Oregon actually needed 2 special team TD’s to win the game.  Oregon is a better team when they played Penn State in the Big Ten Championship to end the year vs. when they played Boise for sure, but it’s still worth noting that Boise probably should have beaten Oregon on the road.  I came into this match up wanting to back Penn State, but not over 10 points.  Boise has been excellent in the trenches, and actually have the better averages for power success, line yards, and stuff rate.  Boise is not going to give the ball up like SMU did as they rank 5th in fewerest % of turnovers per possession.  

The way Penn State gets home here is letting Allar go, but I have major questions because they have not let him completely take over a game, which means I think they will continue to rely on their rushing attack, and Boise hold sup well there ranking 18th in ypc allowed, 37th in rushing success rate with garbage time taken out. .Actually Penn State’s rushing success rate with garbage time taken out ranks 105th.  This is a team that played in a 7-7 game late in a third quarter against Illinois. My theory is alot of the impressive stats that Penn STate puts up is in garbage time, and they aren’t afraid to run it up against inferior opponents, and that fits with the James Franklin 5-14 record vs. top 10 teams. Boise has their own flaws as well, but they shouldn’t be an 11 point dog here. 

Baylor -165 4% play 

Baylor/LSU over 2.2%

Illinois +9 2.2% / Illinois +275 0.5% bonus

South Carolina had a great season, but I think they are being a bit over valued here due to the SEC respect and how this team finished the season even getting love for the playoffs.  South Carolina  will be without two of their best players for this game in Kyle Kenard the outstanding DE who had 11.5 sacks, and RB Rocket Sanders, which really made Sellers a tough running QB.  Sellers definitely improved as the season went along, but with extra time to prepare, I believe this Illinois defense can come up with a game plan to keep him in check. 

On the flip side Illinois has transfer on the OL that is playing in this game, which tells you all you need to know about Illinois motivation here having not won a bowl game since 2011.  This is a team that dominated Michigan this year, and was tied with Penn St halfway through the third quarter.  They have a very good QB in Luke Altmyer 21 TD 5 int.  I worry a bit about the OL here for Illinois, but they did face a ton of good pass rushes this season average opponent sack % ranking 44th, while South Carolina comes in 6th, but faced an average OL of 82.  Coaching edge to Bielema who has accomplished more in his career.  I think this will be a tight game, and Illinois has the edge in turnover percentage.  South Carolina ranked 103rd in turnover % per possession while Illinois ranked 36th. 

Louisville -1 1.1% Free play

Louisville certainly has more opt outs for this game, but I have many more question marks for Washington.  For starters I don't think Jed Fish is a better coach than Jeff Brohm and actually I don't think it is even close.  He started getting a jumpstart on next year by benching Will Rogers for a mobile QB in Williams.  I know Fisch has studied under a lot of great coaches, but they were just very bad at some basic things this year like run defense ranking 124th in success, red zone offense, on the road 30% conversions into TD's, special teams where they rank 130th, pass blocking 108th.  Lousiville will be without their starting QB, and best REceiver but they are getting another one back at WR from a red shirt.  Lousiville is a team that took 3 playoff teams to the wire losing by a TD in two, Notre DAme, SMU, and beating Clemson.  Washington was as inconsistent as any team this year, and I expect Louisville to still put up points and be able to establish the run. 

Alabama -14 2.3%

Iowa +3 -120 3% play 

BYU + 4 3.3% PLAY 

Iowa State +5.5 1.65% play 

Boston College +4 3.3% play

It is hard to back Nebraska as a favorite, period.  Nebraska had 24 players hit the portal including 4 starters, and they lost their DC.  They have made a bowl for the first time in 8 years, which is considered a success under Matt Rhule. I don't know that we can expect a great offensive performance from either team making the points extra important here on natural grass, and wet conditions.  Nebraska also 92nd in percentage of possesions ending in a TO while BC is 14th at forcing them and for me is worth an extra posession for BC.  Nebraska really struggles to win close games, and I'm expecting a close game here as I just don't see how Nebraska's offense will be able to get distance.  Boston College's offensive #'s aren't any better, but they at least have an identity and that's to run the football.  They're not any good at it, but at least they don't turn the ball over.  Nebraska's defense is stout against the run, but without some starters and their DC who left it's hard to say they can live up to what they did during the regular season.  Close game, and BC is better in the red zone, and have played at this stadium two times before.  Take Boston College! 

North Carolina / Uconn Under 54.5 3.3% play 

Vanderbilt +3 3.3% play 

The SEC continues its dominance of the ACC and are already 1-0 this bowl season.  They are 9-3 on the year vs. the SEC +8.3 ppg, and 32-17 since 2020, which includes 7-2 in bowl games +14.2ppg.  Vanderbilt is thrilled to be in a bowl game again, and I think they match up well against Georgia Tech who relies heavily on the rushing attack of their QB Haynes King, but Vanderbilt’s run defense has been stout all year.  Georgia Tech averages nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins vs. losses, and Vanderbilt has held some of the better running QB in check.. Milroe 7 carries 10 yards, Drones 16 for 19 yards, SEllers 13 for 38.  Vanderbilt was also 7-2 ATS as a dog with 4 upsets and nearly upset Texas and Alabama.  They played banged up but inspiring football down the stretch and should be healthy for the first time in a while.  This should be an entertaining game, but I like Vanderbilt to win the game because of their defensive line and the play of their QB Pavia. Pavia has healthier than he was down the stretch, and that’s a big reason I”m supporting VAnderbilt today.  He also gets to go up against Georgia Tech who ranks 100th in pass success rate defense, 129th in sack rate, which should allow him to move the ball here. 

Navy +3 -120 2.5% play 

I'm a little late to the party here with Navy, but if there is ever a time not to chase line moves it would be bowl games.  We bet Navy in the Army game with a healthy Horvath and it was an easy cover.  Oklahoma will have many opt outs in this one including their QB and top 6 WR, and that's an offense that was already struggling 131st in the country in YPP.  Oklahoma has a stout defense, but they really have not seen anything like Navy's offense this season, and they have some turnover on that side of the ball as well.  I'm expecting a lot of running from both teams, and Navy has the edge here.  Navy also clearly more motivated to be in the Armed Forces bowl where they will have a nice crowd in Fort Worth.  I like the fact that they have a better Turnover % rating on both sides as Oklahoma ranks 102nd on offense, which could create an extra posession or two for Navy here.  Overall low total, and we are going to buy this one up to 3, in what should be a defensive game

Bowling Green -7 -120 4% play 

Rutgers +7 3.3% play / Rutgers +215 0.5% 

Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano is one of the better bowl coaches in college football at 6-2, and although they lost their DC I have full confidence with Schiano leading the team and defense here for the bowl game.  Rutgers had a ton of injuries this year, but finally got healthy at the end of the season when they went on to defeat Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan State all as under dogs.

A huge respect for Kansas State, but they have been over valued in the market all year going 4-8 ATS, and have more opt outs for this game.  Their starting QB Johnson is developing, but still makes far too many mistakes for my liking, while Rutgers is 7th with the fewest % of turnovers per possession, and Kansas State's defense is 95th at forcing turnovers. The stats we have here look like Kansas State is the play, but the way Rutgers played when they were healthy, and Schiano as a coach I like Rutgers to win here. 

South Florida / San Jose State O61.5 3.3% play

Northern Illinois -3.5 3.3% play 

UTSA -11 2.2% PLAY 

Tennessee +7.5 3.3% play 

Clemson +14 -120 3.5% play 

Penn State -8 3.3% play 

You can say it over and over that the weather, and cold conditions won’t matter for a team in the south, but I believe it does.  It’s going to be 23-25 degrees during the game today, and many of SMU’s players are from Texas and Florida.  The average temperature for SMU games this year was 72 degrees..  You can’t say it won’t impact their play.  SMU struggled early against Clemson before turning it around in the ACC Championship game late, but I believe Penn State’s metrics are better, and I think Penn State can close the door better than Clemson.

The knock on Penn STate is they can’t win the big game against a top 5 opponent.  Those games have been against teams that have more talent like Ohio St, Michigan, and an undefeated Oregon team.  I think Penn State’s offense matches up well here, and I think things will click here and Drew Allar is the best QB in the college football playoff if they let him do what he does best.  SMU also 99th in % of possessions ending in a turnover, which does not exactly set you up very well when trying to win as an underdog of more than a TD on the road.  The ACC also has not done exactly well vs. the Big Ten, since 2020 they are 1-7 in bowl games getting outscored by 10ppg.

Penn State / smu U52.5 2.2% play 

Indiana +7 -115 3.5% play 

Florida -9.5 2.2% play 

AAC is 3-21 vs. the SEC since 2020, and Tulane is 0-4 overall, and even lost to an offensively challenged Oklahoma team 34-19 this year.  Tulane without their starting QB Mensah who hit the transfer portal, Thompson the Oregon transfer will start, but he's also in the transfer portal.  Florida to me is all in for this game and really played well down the stretch for Bill Napier.  I think they would love to put up some points in this game, and I don't know how motivated Tulane is based on how they finished the year, and the transfers.  Florida's defense really stepped up to end the year, and had 19 sacks in their 3 game win streak.  

Ohio / Jax State Over 57 2.2% play 

This game should be fun with two offensive coordinators taking over the HC duties, which helps the offenses here.  Both offenses are in the top 30 in yards per play, and Jacksonville State's fast pace should help for more possessions.  The weather is absolutely perfect here as well for an over.

Sam Houston +155 2% play 

I think there is good value here given that Clay Helton has not performed well in bowl games.  This Georgia Southern team is worse than last year's team that lost 41-21 to Ohio.  Against Buffalo the year before they were much better and still lost to a Buffalo team that was -1.2 ypp differential vs. -0.38.  Sam Houston is not good offensively, but they have played some good defenses, and their QB Watson got hurt for a few games that definitely impacted their overall ratings.  Georgia Sothern's inability to get after the QB 126th in pressure rate, and stop the run 119th in ypc, 115th in rushing success rate.  While Sam Houston plays very good defense ranking 13th in ypp against a decent schedule of offenses.  They have their DC staying for this game and many of the players that opted to transfer are playing in this game.  It's their first bowl game, and a chance at a 10 win season. 

UNLV -3.5 1.1% Free play 

James Madison -7 2.2% play

James Madison looking for their first bowl win, and they will have a good opporutnity to do that here.  They have the better defense, and offensively they should be able to stop the run, and run the ball.  Western Kentucky 110th running the ball and 101st stopping the run.  This sets things up well for James Madison to control the game.  James Madison also a huge edge in turnover % as Western Kentucky ranked 94th in % of posessions ending in a TO this year while James Madison ranked 8th on offens and 6th on defense.  I think they will get a ocuple of turnovers in this one that will allow us to cover this spread.  Also Sun Belt 18-12 vs. CUSA in bowl games career, and since 2020 overall the SUn Belt has dominated going 31-18 vs. CUSA. 

Memphis / West Virginia Over 60.5 3.3% play 

Navy +7 -125 5.5% max pod buy up to +7

These games are always tight, because the level of familiarity.  Navy comes into this game fully rested and getting their QB Horvath back, which is a huge deal. I think we are getting quite a bit of line value based on that.  Army on the other hand has had a wonderful season, and I know they'd like to continue that here today, but they had 3 games in a row that took max effort.  Notre Dame, UTSA  to get to their first ever conference championship, and then Tulane to win it.  The Navy game is more important obviously, but this game which is played on a neutral is going to be a battle, and looking at the previous versions and spreads of this match up we have value.   Looking at their 3 common opponents the oddsmakers agreed that these teams were pretty even or a slight edge to Army.  Navy was +7 vs. Tulane at home without their QB, while Army was +5.  Both teams were +14 vs. Notre Dame on neutral fields.  

Just looking at a simple stat like yards per play over the years in this match up.  It is easily both of these teams best marks as Army +1.2 ypp vs Navy +0.7, with the strength of schedule edge being on Navy's side.  Many of the other match ups had both teams negative in yards per play differential.  Army was around a 7 point favorite in 2020 and 2021, and had a much larger gap on bad Navy teams.  This is going to be a battle, and one of the more exciting games of the year. 

Clemson +125 3% play

This is very similar to the Georgia game in that you have a regular conference champion going up against the conference new comer, and the game playing on a neutral field in the under dogs home state.  Clemson also has faced the tougher schedule with Georgia and South Carolina in non-conference play.  They also enjoy a major advantage in turnover % per possession as their offense ranks 13th, while SMU’s offense ranks 99th in percentage of possessions ending in a turnover.  Cade Klubnick has quietly enjoyed a really great year, and I think he will have another good game here.  On the flip side SMU struggled in their road game at Duke.  Their offensively line got dominated, but they were lucky enough to come out with a win.  Could we see a similar struggle here tonight? 

Coaching is a huge consideration in these meaningful games, and we obviously have the edge with Dabo.  Rhett Lashlee has done a good job here going 29-10, but 0-2 in bowls is concerning. What’s also concerning is when he goes up against an opposing HC that is clearly a top tier coach his offense struggles.  Manny Diaz at Duke is a good DC, and they struggled.  BYU has an excellent coach in Satake and they struggled.  On the road at Oklahoma last year against Venables and they struggled putting up 11 points, facing TCU last year and they struggled.  Jeff Hafley of BC, trusted defensive mind now the Packers DC faced them in their bowl game and Lashlee’s offense struggled.  In 2022 his first year he had 6 losses, which is understandable, but again most of them were against opposing head coaches that most would consider better coaches, Dykes, Malzahn, Fickel, Fritz & Satake.  Dabo Swinney gets a lot of disrespect in my opinion, and 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the ACC Championship game should garner some respect here.  Swinney’s teams have gone up against Lashlee coordinated teams have scored 17 and 13 points.  I also think this situation with Clemson the way they walked into the ACC Championship game, they are under dogs just fits Dabo Swinney’s personality perfectly.  It will be ironic or not ironic when they find themselves in the college football playoff yet again after beating SMU here.

Penn State +3.5 3.3% play

This is the largest bet game on Saturday, and you have 80% of tickets and money on Oregon at the moment. Three of Oregons wins came by 3 points or less.  I don’t think there is more of an even match up on Saturday than this one.  The only reason we are seeing 3 + the hook on a neutral field is James Franklin can’t win big games.  He has not been able to beat Michigan or Ohio State, but in comes Oregon the best team in the Big Ten this season, but the stats show that these teams are pretty even.  When I look at success rate with garbage time out Penn State averages 25.5 rank in the country compared to oregon 27.6.  These teams have 7 common opponents, Oregon +19.7ppg +150ypg, while Penn State +21.9ppg +143ypg.  Penn State’s defense holding opponents 100 yards less than their season average, Oregon held opponents 84 yards under season average.  Penn State has the better run defense here.

Miami Ohio -128 3.5% play

Ohio 0-5 in MAC Championship games, and not even supposed to be here. Miami Ohio won the MAC last year, and they were up 30-6 in their meeting with Ohio earlier this season letting Ohio come back a bit for a final score of 30-20.  Ohio runs the ball non stop, and MIami Ohio in MAC play has been allowing less than 3 yards per carry, and their pass defense is even better.  I think there is plenty of motivation for Miami Ohio to go back to back.  They have a veteran QB in Gabbert who should be able to throw on Ohio. Miami Ohio much better at TO % per possession on both sides of the ball. 

Iowa State +1.5 3.3% play

Nobody expected Arizona STate to be here, and for Matt Campbell and Iowa State they have been working towards a conference championship for years.  Arizona State lost their top and maybe only WR Jordyn Tyson, and I think that’s bad news heading into this game against Iowa State who ranks 5th against the pass.  Iowa State’s defensive weakness is against hte run, but they have faced a lot of top tier rushing offenses, and the teams they have done better against are the teams that run outside zone, which is exactly what Arizona State runs.  I think Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense can set the edge and have some defensive success against the run, and overall they’ll be better in the red zone. 

Iowa State’s offense has not been as good as expected.  Still waiting for their rushing attack to live up to expectations, and Rocco Becht has taken a step back this year, but still they have a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Higgns and Noel, which is a huge edge on a fast track at Jerry World going up against an Arizona State team that ranks 118th in sack rate, and 103rd in passing success rate defense.  I think Iowa State has the better coach as well, and their fans likely will travel better here.

UNLV +4 3.3% PLAY

Army +4.5 2.2% play 

Tulane is getting the money here, because they beat Navy 35-0 earlier this season, but they were +2 TO margin in that game, and Navy was without their starting QB who got injured early in that game, which was a big loss.  Army has their QB healthy for this game, Bryson Daily.  Tulane has a lot of familiarity with Army however, and I”m expecting a low scoring game between coaches being on the Army staff to Jon Sumrall playing Army the last two years at Troy, but Troy had more advantages, and Army was not as good as the #’s suggests.  This is a huge deal for Army fighting for a conference championship for the first time in their history, at home where they have played extremely well.  Tulane has shown some signs of weakness over the course of the season, and they area  solid team, but going on the road to play in 27 degree weather on a short week is going to be a major challenge.  Tulane ranks 67th in ypc defense so and I expect Army to be able to move the ball.  This game is going to be a battle, and having +5 with Army at home.

Western Kentucky /Jacksonville State Under 58.5 2.2% play

Texas AM +5.5 3.3% play 

I'm not completely sold on Texas this season, and this seems like a good time to fade them on the road.  Texas gets into the playoff with a loss here likely, while the Aggies will go to SEC Championship with a win.  Texas vs. top defenses have gone 3-1, but their big wins at Michigan and against Oklahoma make sense considering both those teams have zero offense, while they went on the road and beat Vanderbilt by only 3.  I will have a tough time backing Texas in the playoff considering they are 101st in % of possessions ending in turnover, while A&M is 28th.  Texas defense has been great, but if there is a hole it is in their run defense.  The Aggies rank 38th in rushing success rate, while Texas ranks 70th.  Texas AM has also faced the tougher schedule with some of the top SEC teams and Notre Dame in non-conference.  

Kansas State +1.5 4.4% play

Iowa State has not faced a single ranked team on the year, while Kansas State has faced 4.  Kansas State has not covered the last 4 match ups in the series, but this one is due.  I have seen Iowa State teams under coach Campbell get very tight in big games, and a win and they get into the Big 12 Championship.  From a yards per play perspective on offense and defense this year’s Kansas State team is better than last year’s, and for Iowa State, their team last year was better than this year, but for whatever reason Iowa State is favored here, and I just don’t see them as the better team.  They also have a huge mismatch here as Kansas State is a run first team, and rank 6th in ypc, while Iowa State’s defensive strength is vs. the pass and they have been horrible against the run ranking 111th in ypc.  Kansas State is going to win in the trenches in this game.  Klieman is 12-5 ATS as a dog as well as they pull the outright upset!

Washington +18.5 2.2% PLAY

Oregon is in the CFB playoff regardless, and has the Big Ten Championships on deck.  They have struggled the last two games putting away inferior opponents in Wisconsin and Maryland not covering the spread.  Dan Lanning is 0-3 vs. Washington so maybe he has some extra motivation, but I think Washington can come up with a game plan with their top pass defense to stay within the extremely large number here.  Washington’s biggest issue is red zone offense, but they have been able to move the ball on everyone and rank top 50 in ypp on offense and defense.

LSU -6 1.1% Free play

Seems like a great match up for LSU as their 9th ranked sack rate defense at home facing Oklahoma who is 132nd protecting their QB.  LSU faces a very poor offense that has had issues turning the ball over.  They rank 101st in % of possessions ending in a turnover while LSU is 15th on defense.  The other problem for Oklahoma is they are facing an offense that can move the ball through the air, which is the weakness of their defense.  I think we are getting atleast 1.5 point in line value here after Oklahoma dominated Alabama last week at home, and you could easily point to the fact that LSU lost to Alabama at home and make a case for Oklahoma, but I don’t see it that way. I think LSU needs to win this more for Brian Kelly to stick around, while Oklahoma did not look likely to be heading to a bowl, but after last week’s huge win over Alabama they are, and can take a big sigh of relief. 

Michigan State -125 3.5% play 

Michigan State has faced the far tougher schedule in Big Ten play having to face Oregon, Ohio State  & Indiana, while Rutgers was able to avoid all three.  Rutgers already in a bowl game, and Michigan State needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, which is critical under first year head coach Jonathan Smith.  Turnovers have been an issue for Michigan STate, but over their last two games they don't have any.  It will be a cold windy day here, and Michigan State's run defense has been far better than Rutgers ranking 38th in ypc compared to 107th.  They also rank 24th in rushing success rate defense, compared to 123rd for Rutgers.  I think Smith is a very good coach, and this is a game at home he should win. 

California +13.5 2.2% play

This is the role Cal loves to be in under Wilcox.  A dog, or double digit dog, and I expect they will be right in this game as SMU is already locked into the ACC Championship game next week, and we have seen teams in that role struggle a bit.  Cal has faced the tougher schedule and brings in a top defense, as well as a team that does not turn the ball over.  SMU ranks 112th in % of possessions ending in a turnover as they have lost 19 on the season.  The two games against good defenses were BYU, they lost, and Duke they won by 1 on the road.  Cal ranks 18th in ypp defense, 13th in ypc, and 33rd in qb defense, and their defensive line ranks 19th in sack rate.  

UAB/ Charlotte Over 60 3.3% play 

USC +7.5 3.3% PLAY 

This is USC's Super Bowl against rival Notre Dame with a chance to possibly knock Notre Dame out of the playoff since they really haven't played anyone.  USC's offense is probably the best offense the Irish have faced outside of Louisville who played them extremely well on Notre Dame's field.  The Irish won that game by only 7 at home.  For USC they have had the tougher schedule and were 4-4.5 point dogs at home against Penn State who have nearly identical numbers to Notre Dame.  You could argue USC should have won that game, but they lost 33-30 and covered.  Notre Dame is not 3-4 points better than Penn State in my opinion and we are getting over the key number of 7.  This is only Notre Dame's 3rd true road game. They have all the pressure on them, and I think USC is fully capable of pulling the upset.  Either way I see a close game so give me USC +7.5.

South Florida / Rice Over 54 2.2% play 

UTSA +7 3.3% PLAY 

Tough spot for Army with their first conference championship game up next with Tulane, and their game against Navy to follow.  This game literally means nothing to them although I expect a high effort, because it's Army, UTSA has an excellent defense that should keep them in the game as they rank #1 in success rate run defense with garbage time excluded.  This is better than their previous two years who faced Army and beat them, and lost last year by only 8.  

South Carolina +3 -114 2.5% play 

This is the best defense Clemson has faced all year, and they have only faced 4 top 60 defenses and have struggled in each of those games going 2-2 never eclipsing 24 points.  Clemson also really has not faced a mobile QB, and their defense is down this year particularly in run defense where they rank 64th in ypc, and that's against an average opponent offense ranking 83rd.  They have also been prone to giving up explosive plays ranking 119th in the country, while South Carolina's offense ranks 28th in explosive offense.  South Carolina biggest issue has been turnovers, but they have only turned it over 6 times on the road.  South Carolina's 3rd ranked sack rate up against a banged up Clemson offensive line could be the difference here. 

Vanderbilt +10.5 2.2% play

It’s hard for Tennessee to cover double digits on the road when they only average 23 points in conference play.  Vanderbilt has some decent advantages here as they are 15th in ypc defense, 18th in defensive sack rate, while Tennessee -1.2 ypc on the road, and 105th in protecting their young freshman QB.  As good as TEnnessee’s defense is they don’t force turnovers.  The strength of this Tennessee defense is their defensive line, but I think Diego Pavia is a scrappy QB that takes care of the ball and should be able to make enough plays to keep Vanderbilt in this game, and I’m sure all of the pressure is on the Tennessee sideline as a win and they get into the CFB playoff. I really like what Clark Lea has done this year with Vanderbilt as they have been competitive even in their losses.  They lost by 3 to Missouri on the road, 3 to Texas at home, and 7 to LSU on the road at night.

Iowa -142 3.5% play 

This has already dropped a couple of points in favor of Iowa due to the weather and the QB change, but the QB play has been nothing great for Iowa this season anyway.  It’s all about the rushing attack that is 13th in ypc led by Kaleb Johnson.  The strength of the Nebraska defense is their run defense, but they have only faced three teams inside the top 50 in rushing offense and they went 0-3 in those games.  Nebraska also just accomplished their goal of a bowl game last week, which is a huge sigh of relief for this staff.  Going to Iowa who has been great at home this year 3-0 SU & ATS in Big Ten play outsourcing opponents 27 ppg.  Overall they are +9 TO margin + 3 yards per carry at home.  That has to be concerning if you want to back Nebraska here.  There offense is one of the worst and although they have showed signs, I would not trust them especially on the road.  They rank 91st in % of possessions ending in a turnover, which will be a challenge against Iowa.  It will be 22 degrees, and a close game, but in the end I’ll take my chances with Iowa in this one.

Utah State +5 2.2% play

Is the pressure too much for Colorado State?  Are they running into a team that is just playing on fire right?  Utah State’s offense is really clicking right now, and they go on the road to play a Colorado State team that needs a win, and an unlikely loss on Saturday from UNLV who is a 17.5 point favorite.  Colorado State is just 1-4  vs. top offenses this year, and Utah STate clearly qualifies ranking 36th in success rate, 35th in ypc.  They have a balanced attack ranking top 50 in both run and pass, and should give Colorado State issues.  Utah State qualifies as a good dog to take on the road, because their offensive line has played well ranking 16th in ypc, and 32nd in sack % allowed.  Colorado STate is 129th at getting to the QB.  The weaknesses of Utah State’s offense are turnovers, but Colorado State is 105th in forcing turnovers

Wisconsin -125 3% play 

Miami Ohi / BG Under 41 2.2@% play 

Miami Ohio +3 3.3% play

The winner will advance to the MAC Championship game!  We already played the under with the weather conditions for this game before the total moved, and now we have a strong look at Miami Ohio has me confident.  The windy conditions will take the ball out of the talented veteran QB's hands on each side of the ball neutralizing each offensive teams strength.  Miami Ohio's Brett Gabbert has had a great year in conference play and Connor Bazelak from Bowling Green can claim the same.  Both teams have top tier pass defenses, but what is more important in this game is the rushing offense and defense. 

Bowling Green is outside the top 50 in both rushing ypc offense and defense ranking 85th and 79th vs. an aveage opponent ranking 70th compared to Miami Ohio who ranks 49th and 35th against an average opponent ranking 72nd.  Miami Ohio has gone 5-1 vs. non top 50 run defenses and 4-1 vs. non top 50 rushing offenses, while Bowling Green has gone 2-3 vs. top 50 rushing offenses and 1-3 vs. top 50 run defenses.  

Miami Ohio is just a more balanced team here.  They also take care of the ball and have the better kicker and special teams.   Also noting the nations leading TE in receiving yards, Fannin from Bowling Green is questionable and won't be 100%.  He's a huge security blanket and a big weapon in a game with these weather conditions.  If he does not play this game moves a point or two so I could see a situation where the spread is 1 or less on game day. 

Navy +120 2.5% play

East Carolina is hot right now and they just removed the interim tag off Blake Harrell.  East Carolina did not have a very challenging schedule over the last 4 games, and with that tag being removed I expect a bit more relaxation for the staff especially on short rest.  For Navy, they are on extra rest and I expect they really want to get the bad taste out of their mouth from a 35-0 loss to Tulane. Blake Horvath is banged up and questionable here, but they have played without before. East Carolina saw the option against Army, and it did not go well losing 45-28, but the game was not that close they gave up 300 yards rushing and were losing 31-0.  East Carolina has to be able to throw the ball to be successful, and Navy’s pass defense has been a strength they rank 38th in success rate, and their defense overall is #2 in defensive turnover % per possession, while East Carolina’s offense is 132nd.

Memphis +14 -120 3% play 

Air Force +3 2.2% play 

Kansas State -8.5 2.2% play 

Bad match up here for Cincinnati vs. a Kansas State team that has to be angry with how they have played the last two weeks.  Cincinnati is very poor in pass defense, and that has been the differences in wins and losses for Kansas State.  In wins their QB has a 16-3 TD/INT ratio, and in losses he’s 1-6.  He will also have the option to run the ball as Cinci is 81st in defensive ypc, and 83rd in rushing success rate.  The strength of Cincinnati’s offense is the rushing attack, but that’s the strength of Kansas State’s defense where they rank 19th in ypc allowed.  In their 3 losses they have allowed 6 passing TD’s and 0 INT, and that’s just not something I see Cincinnati benign able to do here as Sorsby has not played well on the road.

Auburn +1 3.3% play 

I think Auburn plays spoiler down the stretch here, and fights to get to a bowl game.  They are far better than their record indicates as they are top 50 in both offense and defensive ypp, but it has not reflected.  Statistically this team is about as even as you can get with Texas AM if not better.  The Aggies are not a playoff team, and this spread is saying something, but this Aggie team is completely one dimensional on offense relying on their running QB and losing Leveon Moss in the South Carolina game was a huge loss that will impact them in this game.  Auburn is 10th in run defense, and without a threat of the passing game should be able to hold A&M in check.  Auburn is +0.3 ypp at home on offense while the Aggies are -0.8 ypp on defense on the road.  I think Auburn gets it done at home at night. 

Oklahoma +14 2.2% play

Army +14 2.2% play 

Boise / Wy0oming Under 55.5 2.2% play 

Kansas +3 3.3% play 

Kansas matches up well with Colorado and is fighting to get to a bowl game.  Colorado has been playing great defense, but they still have not been able to get to the QB, ranking 123rd in sack rate, while Kansas protect their mobile QB well.  Kansas has two cornerbacks that match up well against the talented receivers on Colorado, and they play a lot more cover 1, which could give Sanders and company some issues finishing drives.  When looking at Colorado’s schedule they have actually been pretty lucky in their schedule facing back up or third string QB’s and have had some luck like hail mary’s along the way.  Kansas lost a lot of tight games, and could easily be sitting here with a better record.  The fact that they were able to rebound after the Kansas State loss and beat two ranked teams back to back shows you all you need to know about their players and coaching staff. I think it shows again here today as they face another ranked team in Colorado as they pulley he outright upset.

BYU +3.5 3.3% play

A lot of money coming in on ARizona State with the bubble burst theory for BYU, but BYU has everything left in front of them even with the loss last week to Kansas, a game we had Kansas, but got lucky as BYU was +112 yards and went 0-4 in the red zone.  They were coming off their biggest rivalry game against Utah, and Kansas was just in a good spot.  Arizona State now ranked for the first time after they went on the road and beat Kansas State in impressive fashion jumping out to a 24-0 lead, which was aided by turnovers, and Kansas State going just 2-5 in the red zone.  I think this game is going to be an absolute battle as both teams run and play slow, and at the end of the day we are getting value on BYU who seems to be the more balanced team with the better overall #’s against a tougher schedule from a statistical perspective they are +1.1 ypp vs. opponent +0.26, compared to Arizona State +0.7 vs. -0.06.  Arizona State’s pass defense which ranks 112th in success rate is a big concern even at home as their pass rush ranks 116th, and BYU has done a good job protecting their QB.

South Florida / Tulsa Over 60.5 2.2% play 

UL Monroe +125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Arkansas State has been outgained in every game this year, but somehow they got their 6th win last week, and are bowl eligible giving them a bit of a let down for this game.  LA Monroe is desperate for their 6th win here to get to a bowl game, which is a huge deal for this team.  They have played a tougher schedule and have better #’s -0.6 ypp differential against an opponent +0.3 compared to Arkansas State -1.4 vs. -0.255..  They are a run first team with 64% of their play calls being runs, and Arkansas State has been horrible stopping the run ranking 123rd.  Monroe has gone 3-1 vs. bad run defenses this season.  Arkansas State on the other hand more balanced, but not a good offense by any means, and are 0-4 going up against top 60 pass defenses averaging just 13.25 points in those games.  LA Monroes pass defense has been very good especially in 6 conference games holding opposing QB’s to a 102 QB rating.  I also like the fact that LA Monroe takes care of the football with only 10 turnovers in 10 games. 

Indiana +10.5 2.2% play 

Ohio State struggled at home vs. Nebraska, and while I like Ohio State this is too many points in my opinion.  I think all the preassure is actually on Ohio State here who can really not afford to lose another game, while Indiana really just wants to not get blown out.  Statistically these teams have plate similar against conference opponents.  Indiana +2.2 ypp vs. an opponent ypp differential of -0.02, while Ohio State +2.9 vs. opponent -0.09.  Indiana played a couple games without Rourke at QB as well, and they are just a solid team across the board.  I think Indiana can hold up in their run defense where they rank 2nd in ypc and 7th in SR rush defense. 

Michigan State -13.5 2.2% play

The Spartans just went through a gauntlet schedule, and get a home game on a Friday night at 4-6 with a chance to go 5-6 and 6-6 and get to a bowl game under Jonathan Smith.  Purdue has gotten blown out many times this season, and I don't really say any reason they would get up for this game. If anything they are looking forward to their rivalary game with an unbeaten Indiana team for their "Super Bowl" or as they call it the Old Oaken Bucket game.  I think Michigan State will be max motivated and won't take their foot of the gas on Friday night. 

Kansas +3 -115 2.5% play 

Georgia / Tenn Under 47.5 2.2% play 

Wisconsin +14 -120 2.4%

San Jose State +14.5 2.2% / SJSU +465 0.25%

The biggest issue for San Jose State has been the turnovers ranking 124th in turnover % per possession.  However, Boise is 102nd on defense forcing turnovers per possession.  I really think Boise is feeling the pressure of the college football playoff and this is a bad match up for them.  San Jose State is a bit under rated they have a +1.4 ypp differential on the season.  They are a pass first team, they have a good coach, and they protect their QB.  Boise State ranks 104th in opposing QB rating, and as we all know their offense is led by their RB Jeanty, well San Jose State is 29th in ypc allowed.  They’re at home with house money here, and should always be in striking distance.

Baylor -2.5 2.2% play 

Nebraska / USC Over 51 2.2% play 

Air Force +3 2.2% play 

Louisville / STanford O57.5 2.2% play 

Syracuse +10 2.2% play 

Cal is a great under dog team, but for whatever reason when they are favored they really struggle.  This game really reminds me a lot of the Bears last home game against an NC STate team that was one dimensional, pretty good passing the ball, but turn the ball over too much. I think Syracuse is a bit better, andt hey proved that by beating NC State.  I think Syracuse’s passing game should have enough success here to keep it within this number and the back door will be wide open.  Cal really struggles on the offensive line and are 1-3 vs. top 50 sack % teams, which Syracuse is ranked 41st.  Cal has also struggled vs. the three good passing attacks that they have seen going 1-2.  Syracuse on the flip side has plated in close games all season with the exception of the Pitt game where they had 5 turnovers.  They have shown they can score on good defenses.  The travel spot not great for Syracuse, but Cal was just at Wake Forest last week so I don’t know how big of a disadvantage that is.

Illinois -135 3% play

Houston Cougars +110 4% play

Two first year head coaches with their teams heading in opposite directions.  Houston is on a run and has defeated 3 of their last 4 opponents as an under dog beating TCU, Utah and Kansas State.  Willie Fritz is a program builder and off the by will have his team poised for some more upsets to get to a bowl game.  Big coaching advantage here. 

Statistically Arizona has the far superior offense, but if we are looking at match ups and recent success I don't think that's the case.  Arizona will face at op run defense in Houston that ranks 27th in success rate allowed.  Arizona's rushing attack ranks 122nd, they have a banged up offensive line, and they have been turnover prone all year ranking 122nd in turnover % per posession.  They have gone 0-4 vs. top 50 run defenses scoring 7, 7, 12, and 26 points.

Houston's offense ranks 119th in yards per play, but they have faced a very challenging schedule especially in road games.  However, to win on the road you must play defense, and be able to run the ball.  Houston runs the ball nearly 60% of their plays, and Arizona ranks 109th in ypc allowed and 78th in rushing success rate.  They also can't stop the pass ranking 104th in passing success rate defense.  The move to Zeon Chriss at QB has proven to be a good move for Fritz.  Chriss is a runner as well, and that will provide additional challenges for Arizona in this one who have struggled to stop running QB's as well.  

Washington -4 2.2% play

This is a mismatch in this game.  UCLA's offense can't run the ball they average 3 yards per carry on the road or at home, and that's the weakness of Washington's defense.  Washington's pass defense is the best in the country, and that's the route UCLA needs to take.  For Washington their offense is balanced and can move the ball on just about anyone, but what happens is they struggle in the red zone, well UCLA has one of the worst red zone defenses allowing 72% TD's in that area, and UCLA's offense is one of the worst red zone offenses with 36% TD's and Washington's defense is 12th in explosive plays allowed. 

Western MIch / Bowling Green O57.5 2.2% play 

UTAH +3.5 3.3% play 

All of the pressure is on BYU here on the road in their biggest rivalry game.  They cracked the top 10, but is this BYU team really a top 10 team.  The line in this game was -21 in favor of Utah over the summer, and of course UTAH has not had the season they were supposed to, bc of the QB situation, but this defense is still really nasty ranking 7th in success rate 2nd in third downs, 8th in rushing success rate, and 9th in passing success rate.  Both teams play at a very slow tempo. I believe Utah is going to want to run the ball and avoid turnover, and I think there is reason and room to believe they can run the ball well here as BYU 92nd in rushing success rate.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in the series, and 20-2-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a straight up ATS loss.

Washington +13 2.2% play

Tough travel spot here for the Huskies, but this is a lot of points for a very good team.  Washington’s biggest weakness is stopping the run, and Penn State should take advantage, but Penn State does not have much of a threat to throw the ball to receivers so I expect the Huskies to be able to do a better job at stopping the run this week.  There is just too much brain power on the Huskies coaching staff to not be able to come up with something to keep this game close.  Washington’s offense has proven they can move the ball against anyone, but they struggle to convert 3rd downs and in the red zone, but again 13 points with a low total, and two slower paced teams is just a lot.  I have concerns with Penn State's defense anyway.  Ohio State was able to run it down their throat to end the game, and the two teams they have faced in the top 70 in offense were able to move the ball and put up points, and one could argue USC should have beaten them.  You could take this back to 2023 when they went 0-3 vs. 3 teams with an offensive pulse - Ohio St, Michigan, and Ole Miss.

LSU +3 -115 3% play 

I think LSU has an edge in the trenches particularly when Alabama is on offense.  Alabama’s offensive line ranks 93rd in protection rate, while LSU is 3rd in sack rate.  LSU’s struggles vs. mobile QB’s have been in their two road games and one of those games they were not expecting to see the Aggies backup QB who torched them.  LSU off a bye where Brian Kelly is 20-11 ATS should have a better plan on how to defend Milroe here.  LSU has faced the tougher schedule yet they have the better success rate offense and defense and they are under dogs at home where they have a distinct advantage, while Alabama has already lost outright two times this season as a favorite of more than a field goal.  Coaching edge to Brian Kelly just because he’s got a longer track record.

Maryland +24.5 3.3% play 

Miss State / TEnn O62 2.2% play 

Georgia -2.5 2.2% play

Duke/NC State Over 51.5 3.3% play 

Uconn/UAB Over 55 2.2% play