Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
Ohio State +8 2.2* play |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +8 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
Florida State +8 5.5* NCAAF POD Oregon has been extremely impressive to close out the year and probably deserve to be more than a TD favorite, but this is new territory for Florida State who haven’t lost in 2 seasons. They have not been a dog since 2011 at Clemson and I think they will be extra motivated because of it. Not only does Florida State have more talent as far as more guys will be NFL draft picks, but I think they have the better QB for a big game like this. I’m still not sold on what Marcus Mariota can do in a big game and this is his chance to prove his doubters wrong. Winston has proved it and he should be extra motivated in this spot as a big dog facing the QB that won the Heisman this year. For Winston everything is behind him as far as what happened off the field and he gets to lead his team against the West Coast guys in Pasadena. Florida State just never won with glamour this year and that’s the biggest difference between these two teams. Many feel the ACC is down, but I have to disagree when you look at how they have performed this bowl season. Boston College played well against Penn State, Duke covered and gave Arizona State who similarly to Oregon was a TD favorite, Clemson just absolutely dominated Oklahoma and Virginia Tech got a nice win as well. Now North Carolina was a bad team from the start, but there were highlights of a good team at times. It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense has opened up with the emergence of Dalvin Cook and the fact that they ran the ball against some pretty good defenses down the stretch including, 5.77 ypc vs. Louisville, 6.00 vs. Miami, 4.41 vs. Florida, and 5.42 vs. Georgia Tech. Winston won’t have to do it on his own, but having balance from Cook makes him all that more dangerous. At the end of the day 8.5 points is far too much with Winston in control and a defense that can make plays. Oregon’s defense has had some pretty bad moments at time this year too and even if Oregon gets a head Florida State is always good for the back door cover. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin +7 v. Auburn | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +7 -120 buy hook Wisconsin has a huge chip on their shoulder after getting torched in the Big Ten Championship and it makes sense as Gary Anderson was obviously on his way out back to the West Coast. The legendary Barry Alvarez – 8-4 in bowls will take over here and should have his team ready for a tough match up against Auburn. The perception of the Big 10 is way down and I’ll take the extra value I’m getting because of it. Is the Big 10 really as bad as we think? Michigan State gave Oregon everything they had earlier in the year on the road and easily could have won that game despite the final score. Wisconsin fell apart in the 4th quarter against LSU to start the year, Nebraska played well vs. USC and they also beat Miami. Northwestern beat Notre Dame on the road while the Irish defeated LSU yesterday. Indiana even joined in the mix and beat an SEC East Champion in their own building. Iowa also beat Pitt on the road an ACC team. So is the Big 10 perception warranted? I don’t think it is and I think this will be a big rebound game for a solid Wisconsin team. First of all Wisconsin defense was not as bad as it looked in the Big Ten Championship game and they are the better defense here today. Both defenses will have a hard time stopping the run here and that’s bad news for Auburn who is allowing 5.55 in their losses compared to 3.21 in their wins. Wisconsin has run on basically everyone and I don’t think it will be a problem here today as Auburn’s defense has allowed 30+ points in 6 straight games. Miss State -1 / Michigan State +8.5 – 4.4* Teaser of the week! Miss State first has extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option which just has not done well in bowl games. Actually looking back Paul Johnson is just 3-6 in bowl games and over his last 6 the offense just has not produced with negative ppg marks compared to season averages of 18, 12, 7, 21, 19, and 20. Miss State’s defense is weak vs. the pass, but very good against the run so this will be a huge advantage for them on New Years. Georgia Tech is getting a bit too much credit for their last 3 games of beating Clemson, beating Georgia, and taking Florida State to the wire in a 35-37 loss. Georgia Tech has given over 5 yards per carry to a lot of teams this year including Georgia, Florida State, Pitt, Duke, Miami in fact 8 teams had 4.97 or better and the reason it is relevant is that’s the key to Miss State’s offense. They ran for 3.56 ypc in losses and 5.63 in wins with 27 TD’s. Dak Prescott will have his team ready here and the defense is one of the best in the red zone. What does that mean? Georgia Tech is going to be settling for field goals which is something they absolutely cannot do. Dan Mullen is also 3-1 in bowl games. Michigan State – The Spartans have been great over the last 3 years in bowl games beating Stanford, TCU, and Georgia. I find a ton more value teasing this game past a TD. I don’t see Baylor being as focused for this game thinking they were gipped. How about Michigan State who has only lost to 2 of the 4 teams in the college football playoff. Michigan State has the better defense and has proven it in big games. Over the last 3 bowl games D’antonio’s defenses have held opponents under their season averages by an average of 9 points. Baylor on the other hand gave up 52 and 56 points in 2 of their last 3 bowl games. The biggest difference in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive line. They are better than Baylor’s and Michigan State’s offense is one of the more under rated units in the country. They are ranked 22nd in opponent adjusted rankings and Connor Cook can spin it with the best of them and the running game can be elite. I just can’t trust Baylor and their 65th ranked strength of schedule and the fact that they just “want this game.” That’s not enough and the 8.5 point value with Miss State given the bowl histories for both teams gives me confidence. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6 | 49-34 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
MISS ST -6 1.1* FREE PLAY Miss State first has extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option which just has not done well in bowl games. Actually looking back Paul Johnson is just 3-6 in bowl games and over his last 6 the offense just has not produced with negative ppg marks compared to season averages of 18, 12, 7, 21, 19, and 20. Miss State’s defense is weak vs. the pass, but very good against the run so this will be a huge advantage for them on New Years. Georgia Tech is getting a bit too much credit for their last 3 games of beating Clemson, beating Georgia, and taking Florida State to the wire in a 35-37 loss. Georgia Tech has given over 5 yards per carry to a lot of teams this year including Georgia, Florida State, Pitt, Duke, Miami in fact 8 teams had 4.97 or better and the reason it is relevant is that’s the key to Miss State’s offense. They ran for 3.56 ypc in losses and 5.63 in wins with 27 TD’s. Dak Prescott will have his team ready here and the defense is one of the best in the red zone. What does that mean? Georgia Tech is going to be settling for field goals which is something they absolutely cannot do. Dan Mullen is also 3-1 in bowl games. 13-1 ON TEASERS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS YEAR!! Don't miss out on what I am teasing this game with. You can get it as a bonus play when you pick up my 4* winner in the Wisconsin vs. Auburn battle! |
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12-31-14 | Boise State v. Arizona -3 | 38-30 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
[b]Arizona -3 2.2* play [/b] I am going to go with the class of the PAC12 here instead of Boise who went through a cup cake schedule. The one time they stepped up in competition they lost 31-13 to Ole Miss. The Mountain West is also in a down year and have gone 2-4 in the bowl games and in most cases have not even been close. Look at Colorado State arguably the second best team they got blown out by Utah in what was supposed to be a close game. I also don't see Boise under their new coach being the same type of team, and I think their QB will struggle going up against Arizona which is not an option when you have to put up points on the board. Boise plays San Diego State each year who employs a similar 3-3-5 defense and in both years their QB has struggled with a 121 QB rating and a 115. Boise State in wins this year has a 173 QB rating, but in loses Grant Hentrick has a 104 rating with 3 TD passes and 9 interceptions. Arizona's 3-3-5 defense has to be the best in the nation led by the best linebacker in America in Scooby Wright. I get Boise has been great in these games in the past and I do see them getting out to an early lead considering Arizona is without their starting center for the first half, but Arizona should be able to runt he ball with Nick Wilson which is the biggest key. Boise was 47th vs. the run this year vs. a weak schedule allowing 4.5+ yards per carry 5 times. Arizona 5.00 ypc in wins and 2.82 ypc in losses, but strength of schedule is the biggest reason as we already saw one PAC 12 team destroy a Mountain West team 45-10. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by. This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them. This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams. TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now. Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win? West Virginia? Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest. This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles. Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff." Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them. I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead. TCU is an elite offense right? Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's? I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone. Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring. TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves. Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain. The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games. Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average. TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points. |
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12-29-14 | Clemson +4.5 v. Oklahoma | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
Clemson +4.5 2.2* bonus Clemson arguably has the best front 7 in football and they face an Oklahoma team that is getting healthy at the right time, but I can't see Oklahoma really being excited about this bowl game as they were expected to do a lot more this year. The one thing that does concern me about this match up is how good Oklahoma's left side of the offensive line is, but they haven't done very well when going up against top run defenses going 0-3 when facing a top 30 run defense while Clemson is in the top 10. Clemson's defense is also #1 in yards per play allowed and it's not just because the ACC is down this year. They also faced Georgia and South Carolina out of the SEC. We saw South Carolina defeat Miami just a day ago. Clemson won't have their star QB but they have won all year with defense and I don't see Trevor Knight lighting up the scoreboard after being out for over a month. |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
Texas A&M +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD The Aggies will most certainly benefit more from the time off here after they went through a brutal schedule which many sources had as the third toughest schedule. I had them with the 3rd most difficult schedule and West Virginia at #40. A&M had a tough physical game they won against Arkansas, and then they played three top 5 ranked teams in Ole Miss, Miss State and Alabama. All 3 were top 25 run defenses and play a physical brand of football. They had 13 days off played LA Monroe, and went on the road to beat a top 5 Auburn team at the time showing that they still have the talent to compete with anyone in the country. They finished up the season against Missouri and LSU who were two of the better teams in the country. The SEC East was the best division in football that we have ever seen in my opinion and it can wear you down, but now with time to prepare we will see Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin at his best. Sumlin is a very good coach who is 3-1 in bowl games and even blew out the Big 12 in the 2012 Cotton Bowl. He's got Kyle Allen at QB a highly touted recruit who was playing his best, but the biggest key will be whether or not A&M can run the ball. In their wins this year they averaged 5.45 ypc and 3.14 in losses. Lucky enough they face a West Virginia defense they should be able to run on with their speed. You could say the same about West Virginia who also needs to run the ball and A&M's defense has definitely struggled, but the fact that West Virginia will start a QB with less experience and A&M certainly has the pass rush to get after Skyler Howard who faced Kansas State and Iowa State ranked 90th and 121st in pass rush. A&M was ranked 18th in sack % and will force mistakes in this game as West Virginia was -15 in turnover margin this year with 28 lost. A&M will also enjoy a nice special teams advantage as their punter averages 44.5 and the West Virginia return game is among the worst at 3.24 yards per return ranking 124th. |
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12-28-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | 17-27 | Win | 105 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
STeelers -3 -120 buy hook - 2.5* play |
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12-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 v. Houston Texans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Jaguars +8 3.3* play |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
South Carolina +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD The public has pushed this line much too far and I'll jump on it. The reason the public likes it? SEC East is in a down year and went 0-4 vs. the ACC the final week of the season, but Miami does not typically play an SEC team. Teams under Al Golden usually fall quickly and they have lost 3 in a row. I knew their season was over when they lost to Florida State in dramatic fashion. I just don't see what Al Golden has accomplished in his career. He's 55-55 as a head coach and I get he's had tremendous obstacles to over come but really with the talent he has he hasn't been close to having a break out year. A lot of people have said the ACC is having a down year and really where has Miami's top win come fro? They beat Duke at home and they were supposed to. Meanwhile South Carolina beat Georgia, and they went on the road to beat Florida. They also have a dual offense with a ton of experience and a ton of guys leaving for the NFL so motivation of playing in their last football game is very high. At the end of the day the Independence Bowl is not very exciting for an SEC program like South Carolina, but the motivation is that they are playing Miami. They also want to finish with a winning record. The last time a Steve Spurrier coached team didn't was 1987. |
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12-27-14 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. Cincinnati | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
VA Tech +3 3.3* play This is a very experienced team that is not content with their win over Virginia to close the season out. I think Frank Beamer might be on his way out, but this team still has a lot to play for and their defense is still one of the best in the country. Here we have a bad offense vs. a bad defense and a good offense vs. a good defense, but I just think Virginia Tech's defense is better than Cinci's offense. Strength of schedule is a huge indicator as you'd be hard to find an impressive win on Cincinatti's schedule. They lost to Memphis, Ohio State and Miami in blowout fashion while beating Houston I guess would be the team's most impressive win. I can't really get excited about the American Athletic Conference and the teams that have played so far have not looked all that great with Central Florida losing pretty easily yesterday to NC State. |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
[b]Rice -2 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b] I like Rice here.. Going to Hawaii can be a big distraction for young kids and I just think Rice is more focused than an average Fresno State team. All the quotes from the players and the coaches reveals that Rice is much more focused for this game and even have a chip on their shoulder considering they gave up 76 points in their last game. Typically teams rebound from that and it won't be that hard against Fresno who is ranked 101st in yards per play on offense and 104th on defense. In opponent adjusted offense and defense they are ranked 106th and 99th. Fresno has had issues in the past on under Tim DeRuyter as they lost as a 13 point favorite by 33 points and lost by 25 as a 4.5 point under dog the last 2 years in bowl games under DeRuyter. It's also worth mentioning that this team has a couple of very bad losses including UNLV and Wyoming.. Wyoming of which they had 2 weeks to prepare. Now Rice has not been that great at times this year, but I really think they have more motivation and they match up well. Up front they should be able to run the ball with Jowan Davis and Darik Dillard and they feature the more complete QB by far and their offensive line has protected a bit better than Fresno Stat who ranks 97th in pass protection. Rice is 14th in the nation in sack% and could create major issues for Fresno who is also very prone to turning the ball over with 25 lost on the season compared with Rice who has turned the ball over only 12 times all year. Fresno is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA and the Mountain West is not exactly impressing me early in these bowls going 2-4 so far. |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan +4 v. Western Kentucky | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
[b]Central Michigan +4 3.3* play[/b] The MAC is getting discredited a lot for their performance last year going 0-5 in the bowls and being 1-2 this year and I see the public moving hard on a trendy pick with Western Kentucky who has one of the best offenses in the country. Western Kentucky also has one of the worst defenses though ranked 118th in yards per play allowed. I really do not see much separating these two teams or these two conferences despite what Marshall's beat down of Northern Illinois looked like. This was a weird year for the MAC with no dominating team while Marshall basically ran away with the Conference USA before falling to Western Kentucky at home in a wild shoot out, but overall these conferences and talent levels are roughly the same and there is too much value on the Chippewas at +4 to ignore. Western Kentucky celebrated their win over Marshall like they won the championship and although bowl games are not typical let down situations I feel they are not as excited to be here as Central Michigan. This team also gave up 40+ points 7 times this year while the Chippewas don't sport a dominating offense they are certainly capable to win with their pro style attack. Cooper Rush has been an efficient QB and should have a good day here. If Central Michigan can limit their turnovers they could easily win this game. Defense is what travels and Central Michigan has the far better defense and much more experience here. Western Kentucky also lost on the road vs. Big Ten foe Illinois while Central Michigan won @ Purdue who beat Illinois on the road. |
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12-23-14 | Navy v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
San Diego State -2.5 4.4* POD Both of these teams really had a down year compared to their standards. Navy is used to winning the Commander Chief's trophy and San Diego State is used to being in contention in their conference, but both will get to a bowl game again. For Navy I just feel like they have too much to over come. San Diego State is playing a home game here in their own field and Navy is 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games. San Diego State will have 14 extra days to prepare for the triple option and it should not be much trouble for them. Both teams need to run to win and that's what they hang their hat on, but Navy has issues stopping the run while San Diego State has been more consistent in that area. The Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is no stranger to preparing for a triple option attack. He faces Air Force every year and due to where they are located would face Army each year. They have won their last 8 games vs. Army/Navy/Air Force dating back to the 2010 season with margin of victories around 14.6 points on average. This is just too much in a short period of time for Navy to come off the high of beating Navy go all the way to the other side of the country and beat a team playing at home that has extra preparation and is used to preparing for your offense. |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
BYU +2 4.4* NCAAF POD I like BYU here in this game for a vareity of reasons. First of all only 1 guy on Memphis team has bowl experience. BYU looked worse than they did down the stretch and they will be as healthy as they have been all year int his game with the exception of Taysom Hill obviously, but this team did not seem to miss a beat without Hill. Justin Fuente is the new hot thing for coaching given what he did with Memphis this year, but he did it in one of the worst conferences. In fact his last 6 opponents offenses ranked no better than 94th in yards per play. That will make any defense look elite. Bronco Mendenhall quietly leads a team of men who will be focused and experienced in this game and certainly not distracted by Miami Beach. Mendenhall is 4-1 in his last 5 bowl games and 3-0 against non-major conference teams. BYU's defense is every bit as good as Memphis and they did it in a better conference facing teams like Boise State and in non conference they went up against Cal and Texas. When Memphis stepped up in competition facing UCLA they allowed 42 points. BYU as I mentioned before did not skip a beat with Christian Stewart taking over at QB. In fact he finished with 22 TD's and 6 interceptions. In adjusted opponent efficiency BYU's offense ranked 33rd to Memphis at 84th. Memphis offense needs to run the ball to win. They have 24 TD's and 4.61 yards per carry in wins, but 2.81 and 4 TD's in losses. BYU is one of the best teams in run defense year in and year out and Memphis does not pose quite the threat through the air. When BYU can concentrate on stopping the run the defense has great success and I think it will here again. Another thing that would scare me about Memphis is the fact that they relied heavily on turnover to win games. BYU only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 4 games. |
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12-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-42 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Colts +3.5 4.4* play I really like the Colts here despite clinching their division last week they know they still have a chance at getting a bye. The Cowboys just came off the biggest win of their season and the Eagles lost yesterday so it only seems fitting that they lose here to make things interesting next week. The Colts are an elite offense and elite offenses can take advantage of all the defensive weaknesses of the Dallas Cowboys. Indy has actually improved this season run defense and they lead the league in 3rd down defense allowing opponents just 32.95% conversions. Compare that with Dallas who is ranked 29th and you have a major advantage as Dallas has actually allowed a higher third down conversion for opponents at home than on the road. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
Chicago Bears +9.5 3.3* NFL POD I get the Bears have players out in this game, but this is just far too many points for a division rivalry. The Bears have too much pride to just lay down in this one and I think they arguably have an upgrade at QB with Jimmy Clausen as long as he doesn't try to do too much. Jay Cutler was just simply turning the ball over too much. Detroit is the hot and sexy team again with 3 straight wins, but all came at home. This has been a different team on the road especially offensively where they have been held under 10 points 3 times. How can they be nearly 10 point favorites against a team that knows them so well. I'll take the points in this one should be a Lions 3 point victory in the end. |
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
Steelers -2.5 3.3* play close your eyes and picture Steelers vs. Chiefs on neutral field. Who would win or who would be favored? The oddsmaker's are saying it's the Chiefs, and I may seem like a square here today, but I'm taking the Steelers. The Steelers defense has been horrible and the Chiefs offense looked great a week ago, but I find it hard to believe the Chiefs offense can look that good back to back weeks. The majority of the year the Chiefs offense has struggled and even though the Steelers struggle on defense I still think this defense can put together a solid game against a one dimensional attack. The Chiefs still don't have a WR with a TD reception this year while the Steelers are #1 in the league in offensive yards per play. The Steelers have a balanced offense and the entire strategy of the Chiefs defense is getting to the QB. That is just not going to happen when you have one of the best QB's in the league and a balanced offense. At this time of the year I like to say defense wins championship and the Chiefs definitely have the better defense but they are flawed. They can't stop the run 30th in the league allowing 4.9 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect when their terrific pass rushers don't get to the QB. Big Ben has been sacked just 1.49% of his drop backs over the last 3 weeks. I expect the Steelers to win to stay pace with the their division foes. |
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12-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Air Force +2 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Air Force +2 3.3* play I like Air Force here for various reasons. For one they come out of the stronger conference (by far) MAC #10, MWC #6 and they have performed better against better opponents beating 4 bowl teams. Western Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, but the teams they have beat have been awful. Even Bowling Green and Central Michigan the two bowl teams they beat are some of the worst when it comes to rankings. The first thing you have to look at in a game like this is whether or not Western Michigan can stop the run. Western Michigan gave up more than 5 yards per carry to every single team they faced ranked inside the top 50 in rushing and they lost all of those games as well. Sure preparing for the triple option is much easier when you have the extra time, but Air Force does have Kale Pearson back and the senior has the ability to throw the ball with 14 TD and 3 interceptions. Air Force is more balanced than most would think and I don't think Western Michigan will have a lot of success by the second half. The last thing I looked at was each teams efficiency when it matters. So, third downs, red zone and Air Force is either equal or better in both offense and defensive categories and they did so against a tougher schedule. Air Force beat Navy, Nevada, Colorado State and Boise this year and they have experience playing on this blue turf and I think playing them as an under dog is the play. |
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12-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Cowboys +3.5 3.3* Play I liked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now I certainly can not go against that just 3 weeks later. Tony Romo is a different QB here tonight in my opinion as he just really was no healthy on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have the revenge, but they have 3 extra days of rest which is a huge huge deal at this point in the season. The Cowboys offensive line will have a deciding advantage when you look at the physical game the Eagles had to play just a week ago against the Seahawks. It's also interesting to note that the Cowboys have played better on the road on defense all year long. That's mainly due to the fact that the Cowboys will stick to the running game longer on the road. It's the best game plan for them and I think it works tonight just because of the extra rest and given the opponent that the Eagles had to face a week ago. What is also impressive is that this Dallas offense is #1 in third down conversion % overall and on the road due to their excellent run game. The Cowboys also won't have to deal with a stacked box if the Eagles are smart about it as a healthy Tony Romo can pull off the play action game better than any QB. The extra game preparation off a loss with revenge will give the Cowboys an excellent chance to keep the Eagles off guard while the defense should have a good game against Mark Sanchez who for the first time this year is facing a defense for the second time. A lot of people are giving Chip Kelly credit for what he does following a loss, but... 3-0 This year and his wins have come against the Texans, Titans, and Rams which neither of those 3 teams are going to the playoffs. Last year this Cowboys team whose defense was atrocious held the Eagles to 3 poitns in their own building. That was after this elite offense that was putting up 30pts off back to back games. Chip Kelly is good, but it's worth mentioning he's 5-14-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record. |
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12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +8 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Vikings +8 5.5* NFL POD In the last match up Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with 0 TD and 3 interceptions against a good defense, but Bridgewater has really progressed since then and this Vikings team has been covering games. I still think the Lions are over rated and although their offense is healthy they face a Vikings defense that knows them pretty damn well. The Lions have only scored 30 points 3x this year all vs. shitty defenses which the Vikings are in the average to above average tier. The Lions are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a 30+ point game in their previous game. It's a good trend to look at, because just as you think Matthew Stafford is about to turn the corner he comes up with a bad performance. Stafford is a records hoarder, but I don't see him as a leader of a team that can win meaningful games in December. I won't be shocked if the Vikings come up with the divisional upset here. The Vikings are playing their best when and where it matter, in the red zone. Over their last 3 games they have allowed opponents to score just 30% of the time and they themselves have scored 75% of the time. Those trends continue here today. Colts -1 / Bengals +8.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week The Colts know if they win this game they lock up the division and I think they should win easily while the Bengals go on the road to play a Browns team getting a ton of credit right now. It is still the Bengals division to win and I think they put up a fight with the teaser giving us great value here. Manziel makes his first start against a very good defense and I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a lot of trouble here. Welcome to the NFL Manziel on a huge stage with a game your team needs you to win. |
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12-13-14 | Army +15 v. Navy | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Army +15 3.3* play; Army +510 0.5* bonus Usually the Commander-in-Chief trophy is on the line in this game, but not so this year as Air Force already wrapped that up. Navy also has a 12 game winning streak in this series and a bowl to look forward to in San Diego. Army on the other hand has this game and it is bigger than any other bowl win they could have if they can win here today. Not sure if they can win, but all I ask for at these odds is for them to have the ball down less than a score with a chance to win. We have seen it in years past and I think this team is stronger than years past. Jeff Monken is the new head coach at Army and he knows how important this game is. His background is quite impressive from his days under Paul Johnson at Navy and Georgia Tech to what he did with the Georgia Southern program for 3 years. You see Georgia Southern going 9-3 this year and that is a testament to Monken's work. Now it's been an average season at best for Army, but I don't see this Navy team as being over powering or something that Army can no stop or compete with. Both have similar stats on both sides of the ball and Angel Santiago is a bit under rated while Keenan Reynolds gets all the attention. Army can win the turnover battler here +2 on the season, Navy -3 and steal this game. |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. St. Louis Rams | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Cardinals +6 3.3* play There is something about the Cardinals here that I like. Vegas continues to disrespect them and on the flip side the Rams are playing their best football off back to back shutouts. Two excellent coaches go at it and I have a hard time thinking the Rams are a 3 point favorite here on a neutral field. The total is low at 40.5 and with a 6 point under dog I will back them in this spot like I did on Sunday. |
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12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
[b]Seahawks -1.5 5.5* NFL POD; Cardinals +8.5 / 49ers -2 4.4* play[/b] |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
Ohio State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Ohio State +175 1.5* play This has tight game written all over it. Wisconsin has soared as almost what you’d consider to be a heavy favorite. Ohio state has had issues vs. the run the last few weeks and Wisconsin obviously has the best rushing offense they have faced. A lot of experts are saying whoever runs the ball better wins this game, but I’m not so sure. Ohio State actually is allowing more yards per run in their wins than their losses and Wisconsin is rushing for the same in their wins and losses. I think the team that wins is going to be the team whose QB plays better and plays better in the red zone, but either way we are looking at a conservative game late with the QB play just not being there and two extremely talented defenses against the run. Ohio State has Cardale Jones coming in and I think it’s harder for Wisconsin because they really do not know what they are going to see. Urban Meyer also is very good with QB’s in his system and I’m not worried one bit. I mean try to think back and tell me who the last bad QB was under Meyer? Even Kenny Guiton put up 14 TD and 2 INT last year while Miller was out. Shit if you look back to his Utah days Urban Meyer has produced a QB rating the last 9 seasons he’s coached of 16th, 3rd, 37th, 24th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 10th, and 3rd which is ridiculous. So whatever line they moved for this game because of the QB play I’m thinking we have value being on the side of a coach that’s better than his opponent. I also think Joel Stave is going to have a lot of issues moving the ball when he has to. In Wisconsin losses he has a 51 QB rating and in wins he has a 147. Ohio State has only allowed 7 passing TD’s and has 13 INT’s in conference play. They are +5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is -2. Wisconsin is also not very good in red zone defense which should be the difference as they are allowing 72% TD rate when opponents get there. |
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12-06-14 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
[b]Georgia Tech +4 2.2* play[/b] I've supported Florida State the last few weeks via the teaser plays but now it's time for them to finally go down and shake up the playoff picture. Georgia Tech has the ingredients to make this a very close game with their ability to control the clock ranking #1 in third down conversions. Florida State has not been dominant on third down defense allowing 42% conversions and they have had issues at times stopping the run. Yes, they scheduled Citadel early in the year who run the triple option, but Citadel ran for 250 yards on them all the same. It has been a weekly trend to fall behind and come back, but against Georgia Tech I don't think they will be able to do that. Georgia Tech has an excellent ball hawking secondary and an offense that should be able to stay on the field. I could see Florida State holding on by a field goal possibly, but would not be surprised if they finally went down. |
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12-06-14 | Kansas State +7.5 v. Baylor | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
Kansas State +7.5 4.4* BIG 12 Game of the YEAR One team has half the penalties, the better QB rating in conference play and better pass defense in conference play and is converting at nearly 8% more on TD’s in the red zone while allowing 14% less while also converting on third downs at a higher rate. I bet you would think the answer to those questions was Baylor. Listen Baylor had a fabulous year but there just seems to be too much complaining about this team that scheduled Buffalo while TCU and Kansas State scheduled Minnesota and Auburn. Kansas State is not over a TD under dog against a Baylor team that now has a lot of pressure on them, because they need to win with glory here in a blow out. I don’t see it happening against Bill Snyder and Kansas State. This is a well coached team that has played in a bunch of great games on the road and I expect the same here on Saturday. |
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12-06-14 | Temple v. Tulane +3 | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
Tulane +3 3.3* play This game probably means nothing to most, but Tulane and Temple will battle with Temple’s bowl hopes on the mind. Tulane actually has had two weeks to prepare for this game which normally you would say who cares? However, they have a new field down they have a young energetic head coach in Curtis Johnson. This team went 7-6 last year in shocking fashion under Johnson and this has been a tough season, but destroying Temple’s bowling hopes would help. Both teams don’t have much offense and this is a long trip for Temple and I just think a well-rested Tulane team will be playing this game like it is their Super Bowl. Tulane did not have the easiest schedule here at home facing Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, and Memphis along with Uconn who they beat. This is arguably their second easiest game all year at home and they should be poised to win it. |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida +7 v. East Carolina | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
UCF +7 -115 3.5* PLAY I am going to take Central Florida here tonight as this is very close to a championship game. I just feel that the Knights have the better coaching and have played better down the stretch compared with East Carolina who is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a winning record and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a SU win. I'm not a big trend guy, but the 4-15 ATS vs. a winning team speaks to me about coaching. UCF's losses against Penn State and Missouri who both have top 10 defenses are acceptable while their loss to Uconn may look a bit weird, East Carolina also nearly lost the Huskies, but almost did so at home. Connecticut is always strong up front and again I'm looking to the defensive side of the ball for both teams and I think that's what gives UCF a big advantage here. Central Florida is #1 in passing yard efficiency defense and East Carolina really has not played anyone at this level yet. VA Tech, Uconn and Temple were all top 80 units and those were all close games or losses for East Carolina. The rest of the defenses they have faced were outside the top 80 as far as yards/pass attempt. Shane Carden had a great year, but he definitely slowed down towards the end of the season and now he faces his toughest test against a defense allowing a 75QB rating in conference play. When you look at the conference numbers these two teams are about the same just with different strength and weaknesses. Central Florida's red zone defense will be the difference. |
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11-30-14 | Denver Broncos +1 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 29-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Broncos +1 5.5* NFL POD I like the Broncos here I have been saying for weeks that the Chiefs are over rated. Everyone thinks of the Chiefs as a top tier defense and for the most part they are, but this defense has one glaring weakness and it is stopping the run. The Chiefs are ranked 32nd allowing 5.0 yards per carry and they are allowing 5.6 over their last 3 alone. Denver's 3 road losses came to the Rams where they only rushed the ball 10 times, the Patriots 17 times and the Seahawks 20-36. Denver should take the lead first in this game and use the running game to close this one out. They are undefeated when they run for more than 100 yards and I think they can easily get that tonight if they stay dedicated. Peyton Manning will not hesitate to hand the ball off more times than he throws especially in a game where his defense can handle their own facing one of the worst offenses in the league. The Chiefs go up against the Broncos run defense which is #2 in the league and #1 in rushing defense on the road allowing 3.1 yards per carry. I think it's just a bad match up and this the type of game the Broncos made acquisitions for in the off season to win. I see them winning big and I'll take the points. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals -1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 18-29 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Cardinals -1.5 3.3* play The only teams the Cardinals are losing to are teams with top defenses and now they go on the road to face a team with one of the worst defenses in the league. Atlanta also can not protect Matt Ryan along the offensive line and that's a big issue facing the Cardinals front. Atlanta has not been impressive at home compared to recent years losing to the Lions, the Browns, and Bears. The Cardinals have offensive struggles, but I see them completing some big plays down field along with the defense making a few turnovers to change this game. |
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11-29-14 | Mississippi State -2.5 v. Ole Miss | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Miss St -2.5 2.2* play; Under 50.5 3.3* play I really think Miss State will pull this game out in the end. Ole MIss is a team that can really turn things around here with a win against their hated rival witch a chance for a 10 win season, but I think they are just banged up here. Bo Wallace is the key and he always plays well at home, but I just think the offense will struggle again without Treadwell. This team has been awful in the red zone as well and that's part of the reason I like the under since Miss State's red zone defense is the best in the nation holding opponents to a 35% TD percentage. Ole Miss defense is also very good at keeping teams out of the end zone holding opponents to just 38% on the season. Expect a lot of field goals in a game where there is a lot on the line. I expect a lot of conservative play calling from both coaches and in the end this game could or should be decided by a field goal. I still believe Miss State would have beaten Alabama if they had just 1 more quarter and I think Ole Miss got Alabama at the right time. Ole Miss is just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in November while the Under has gone 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. |
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11-29-14 | Old Dominion +4 v. Florida Atlantic | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
[b]Old Dominion +3.5 3.3* play[/b] Florida Atlantic really does not have much to play for in this game with no chance at getting into a bowl, but Old Dominion has a chance to get to 6-6 which would be remarkable. They also feature the best player on the field at the most valuable position in QB. Taylor Heinickie is an experienced QB that's been playing for a while and should not be afraid of this game on the road. Old Dominion is a balanced offense and they can not only sling it but are picking up 5.11 yards per carry on the road this year. FAU has struggled defending the pass and the run at times and parlay with the fact that I just don't see them that interested in this game and I think there is a great chance that Old Dominion wins. |
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11-29-14 | Kentucky +13 v. Louisville | 40-44 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Kentucky +12.5 3.3* play I'll take Kentucky here with value. These two teams have gone in opposite directions the last few weeks, but Kentucky is still very capable of pulling off a win here. I think the game is bigger for the Wildcats since if they get a 6th win they will go bowling while Louisville just came off back to back physical games against Boston College and Notre Dame. Sure Kentucky's defense has been awful, but that's against SEC opponents and now they get to face their rival with extra rest and preparation and a rookie QB in Reggie Bonnafon who is only making his 4th start of the year. I think Kentucky's defense will hold up just fine while their offense should be able to score some points. |
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11-28-14 | Arkansas -2 v. Missouri | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
[b]Arkansas -2.5 5.5* pod ; Arizona st +8.5 Stanford +12.5 3.3* playb] |
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11-28-14 | Nebraska v. Iowa | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show | |
Iowa pk 3.3* play You'd think we are getting weak value here with Iowa covering against Wisconsin in impressive fashion, but not winning and Nebraska embarassing themselves again. However, I'll take the home team here as Nebraska is one dimensional on offense and whenever they play a decent defense they seem to lose. Their only win vs. a top 45 yards/play defense was against Miami early in the season at home facing a true freshman QB. Iowa is ranked 23rd while they struggle against the run they have been good enough when the opposing team can not beat them with their arm and I just don't get worried about Nebraska on the road passing the ball. I also don't think Abdullah is 100% and it's impacting Nebraska's ability to run the bal. Jake Ruddock caught fire last game and he's been outstanding at home and has a 162 QB rating over his last 4 games. Iowa should be able to establish the run against Nebraska who is giving up over 6 yards per carry on the road. These two teams have faced 2 of the same opponents in their last 3 games and a similar level opponent in the 3rd and the stats are remarkable. Iowa is +45 yards while Nebraska is -170. Right now I just have more faith in Iowa at home where they are allowing just 30% of red zone attempts to turn into TD's. |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Western Michigan | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois +8 4.4* play Northern Illinois just keeps winning especially on the road. They are not doing it in any sexy way, but they are winning games and they are in position to take their division once again with a win over Western Michigan who they have dominated with 5 straight wins and have gone 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Western Mich over achieved last week with a win over Central Michigan and I think they may even lose this game. Against the division's third place Toledo both teams played at home. Northern Illinois cruised as a 3.5 point favorite to a 3 point win while Western Michigan lost by 1 at home as a 5.5 point under dog. The market for whatever reason has been crazy about this team and the Oddsmaker's have had no choice, but to make them a heavy favorite here. I get that they have a better run defense in a game that will be decided by who can run the ball better and Western Michigan is home and they have a QB that can stretch the field with his arm, but Northern Illinois is just flat out a better program and they have 4 extra days of rest and preparation while Western Michigan is on a short week here. I think that's a major advantage with the holidays and what not. It's also worth noting that some of the stats have to be taken with a grain of salt when you consider non-conference. Northern Illinois played UNLV, and WMU played Idaho, which is a wash. However, WMU played Purdue and Virginia Tech who are among the worst in their respective conferences while Northern Illinois played Northwestern who has big wins against Wisconsin and Notre Dame and Arkansas one of the nations hottest teams. Northern Illinois can and will run the ball in this game and WMU has faced only 2 teams in the top 70 in yards per carry all year. They have allowed 6.30 ypc in their losses and 2.99 in their wins. Northern Illinois is rushing 5.18 ypc in conference play and is ranked 31st in yards per carry. They are a team that does not make mistakes or turn the ball over and have proven they can win on the road. I'll take the points gladly in this one. |
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11-27-14 | TCU v. Texas +7 | 48-10 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas +7 3.3* play[/b] Texas is hot and granted it is against 3 of the bottom teams in the Big 12, but still they are playing with a lot of confidence right now and I just think 7 points is too much. Texas can play without any pressure while TCU may be trying to get style points here after their 34-30 win against Kansas did not do them justice. Texas has shown they can run on any run defense at home and that's big key to this game. TCU's defense should keep this in check, but again I expect a low scoring game any way. Texas ability to stop the run has to be their because in 4 of their 5 losses they allowed 200+ yards. However, they have not allowed a single opponent to rush over 5 ypc. TCU is rushing for 1 yard less on the road and when they have been held under 5.5 yards per carry it has been a close game with wins of 4, 1, 4, and a loss by 3. Charlie Strong is very good on defense against spread teams and he has the prototype team to get a team like TCU out of their rhythm which is what I think we see happen here. Strong also very good with extra time to prepare on defense. Both coaches are very good in this match up, but the home team with a good defense catching a TD is just too good to pass up. Texas has the 10th rated sack defense from a % perspective. Baylor has only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 at getting to the QB and they lost that game. |
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11-27-14 | LSU -3 v. Texas A&M | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 54 m | Show |
LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with? This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion. Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength. LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness. This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses. First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster. Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it. A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month. Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama. LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news. LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run. In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well. They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th). However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins. Key to the game - Run the damn ball! On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit. All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run. Now A&M is pure trash against the run. Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed. They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate. LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas. Watch what happens in their last game of the season. LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards. They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch. Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose. In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd. This is the best pass defense they have faced all year. A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55. LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone. Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%. Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined. Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home. |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD There is no way I can trust Mark Sanchez in this spot. Philadelphia’s defense is not good enough to carry this team and they are susceptible against the run on the road allowing 4.4 yards per carry which is a full yard more than what they allow at home. Dallas is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per carry behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. The Eagles have all three of their losses at home and have not faced a team in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry since the Redskins in Week 3 who they gave up 34 points to and barely hung on at home 37-34. Dallas is #1 in adjusted line yards at 4.57 compared with Philadelphia at 3.34 ranking 30th. Dallas has found ways to win all season long and their aggressive defensive style should force some critical mistakes for the Eagles on the road. Teasing Lions -1 / U53.5 for 3.3* play BONUS Lions losing 4 out of the last 5 games ATS, Bears 2 straight wins and covers at home against crappy teams. Value on the Lions. The Lions have gone under by an average of 9.6 points per game. In their 8 games against non-elite offenses the Bears are allowing under 20 points per game. Both offenses have star players, but have been underperforming this year as the Bears are ranked 17th in yards per play while the Detroit Lions are ranked 27th. Also both defenses have been great in the red zone. Chicago allowing just 51% TD % in the red zone ranking 11th, and 48% on the road while the Detroit Lions come in at 12th, but allowing just 42.86% on the road. Detroit’s offense who you would give an edge at home is ranked 24th in red zone TD% and is only converting 46.67%. I think this is a lot of points on a short week with both offenses really not blowing anyone away. Overall I think the Lions have the stronger defense and are the more desperate team following 2 straight losses on the road while Chicago is off 2 straight wins. |
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11-25-14 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) +3.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami OH +3.5 3.3* play This would be a POD, but I really can not gauge the motivation of this team or its coaches at 2-9 facing a team that needs 1 win to get bowl eligible. To be honest on paper Miami OH has plenty of advantages in this match up and they directly correlate to their strengths. Offensively Miami OH is the better team and they have done it against similar competition. I won’t go down the list, but Ohio is 81st in yards per play and even worse on the road. They put up 14 points on Northern Illinois at home while Miami OH put up 41. Andrew Hendrix has been very good in conference play with 15 TD and 3 INT’s. He’s going up against Ohio’s pass defense which is ranked 90th in passing QB defense. Ohio usually struggle when they are unable to stop opposing QB’s and I see them having some issues here.
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11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -1.5 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Texans -1.5 -105 5.5* NFL POD |
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11-22-14 | USC +4.5 v. UCLA | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
USC +4 4.4* NCAAF POD USC has lost the last two years to Brett Hundley, but this year feels different. UCLA's defense gave up 37 points to Colorado and 30 to Washington and those are two offenses that do not scare you. Cody Kessler has NFL players on his side and he's been playing just as good as Brett Hundley on the other side and USC features the better defense led by stud Leonard Williams. In fact I think USC has the better players on both sides when you watch WR Nelson Agholor. Kessler will have plenty of time to pass considering UCLA is 109th at getting to the QB. UCLA's defense is also not stopping the run at all at home allowing 4.48 ypc and while USC has not been a physical imposing running game, Javorius Allen is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has 8 100 yard games. This is where USC will win the game, because on the flip side they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Speaking of which in conference play these two teams have similar statistics. What is surprising actually is the fact that USC's QB play is slightly better and USC's run defense is allowing over 1 yard less on the ground. If they can contain Hundley they win this game going away, but I think it will be more difficult than that. The key stats though are 3rd down offense, defense and TD percentage in the red zone along with turnover margin. USC in conference play has better numbers in all 5 categories. On neutral field I would probably set them as a 2 point favorite so I think getting 4 points on the road gives us value. USC behind better coaching should finally do something they couldn't do the last two years and that's beat UCLA. Washington -0.5 /Stanford 0.5 6pt teaser 4.4* Washington is back home off a big loss with a fumble in the 4th quarter and they get to play an Oregon State team that is pretty happy with itself after facing Arizona State at home and crushing their dreams at a spot in the top 4 in the college playoff. A hangover going on the road is inevitable here for Oregon State who has a shaky offensive line and has been unable to protect their senior QB Sean Mannion. NT Danny Shelton is one of the best in the nation and DE Andrew Hudson is no slouch as they are 16th in sack % and should dominate this game at the point of attack. Oregon State is only converting 25% of their third downs in conference play. Stanford beat Cal by 50 points last year. Their offense has been shaky all year and this spread deserves to be where it is, but Stanford's offense should finally get going here against Cal, a team that is 110th in yards per play on defense. Everyone is up on this Cal team and they covered the spread with luck last week against USC. Stanford meanwhile has looked awful, but I see them turning it up here. They put up 30+ points in big wins in each of their match ups against teams ranked worse than 100 in the nation in yards/play allowed. Cal's offense has looked great, but they have been shut down when they have played good defenses and Stanford still has that going for them ranked 3rd in yards allowed. |
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11-22-14 | Syracuse +7.5 v. Pittsburgh | 7-30 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Syracuse +7.5 -108 2.2* play I'll take the Orange here with 2 weeks to prepare. Although they really have nothing to play for and will be getting a lot of inexperienced players out there today I think 7.5 points is just too much value when you look at how they match up with Pitt. Pittsburgh will run the ball 62% of the time and James Conner is a beast, but he faces arguably the best run defense he's had to go against all year and they are fresh. They allow 3.25 yards per carry on the year 2.92 on the road and 3.39 in conference play while only allowing 6 TD's all year. To put that in perspective Pitt's defense is allowing 5.39 ypc in conference play and 5.5+ over their last 5 games combined. Pitt is a young team and I think Syracuse will get some of their inexperienced players out there, but the fact that they will be much fresher than Pitt's young team at this point in the season gives me confidence of sticking with the Orange even though Pitt has much more to play for. Syracuses pass defense is good enough, but their run defense is special when you consider they have only allowed 1 opponent to rush for more than 4 yards per carry. That just so happened to be the team with the best QB int he nation in Jameis Winston. Nobody has rushed for more than 200 yards either. Pitt is 0-4 when they have been held under 200 yards or under 4 yards per carry. Syracuse has not announced their starting QB, but whoever it is I think he'll take care of the ball as Syracuse has 4 turnovers all season long on the road and are +9 on the road in TO margin. Now this is where they can steal this game, because Pitt is not a team forcing many turnovers. In fact they have 1 INT in their last 5 games and have a -7 TO margin. |
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11-21-14 | UTEP +8.5 v. Rice | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
UTEP +8 3.3* PLAY I like the Miners here on Friday night playing in their home state. This is not too much of a road game for a short week. Rice, is looking towards LA Tech next week since they have dominated UTEP over the years. A win next week would get them to play Marshall in the Conference USA Championship after they got beat easily a week ago. Both teams are run first offenses so this one is pretty easy to handicap with both teams ranked top 15 in rushing play % over 60%. UTEP is better at running the ball averaging 5.0 ypc to Rice's 4.1, and 4.11 in conference play. UTEP has averaged 4.75 in conference play. For Rice in their success this season it's more on their defense. If they win they are stopping opposing running games and on paper it looks good when they are at home allowing just 3.07 ypc. However, I looked at the numbers and they are not that impressive. They allowed two opponents to rush over 4 yards per carry. The opponent rushing ypc ranks were 29th (they lost this game), 98th, 108, and 113. UTEP is ranked 26th and features two solid RB's along with an athletic QB in Jamael Showers. Rice has allowed over 6 yards per carry in their losses and 2.97 in their wins, but their run defense has not played well against good running teams like UTEP. UTEP's defense is nothing to get excited about either and on paper they are just as bad, but this team is improving and has held all 4 of their last 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing with just 2 TD's. That even includes Western Kentucky who is 34th in the nation in rushing ypc while Rice just at 73rd. Rice does not have the QB that Western Kentucky has either and the Hilltoppers only won that game by 8. Everything else is pretty similar between these two teams in conference play from while UTEP is a bit better on third down defense and passing defense Rice is better in the red zone, but at the end of the day both teams are similar, both want to run the ball and that gives me the feeling of close and tight game with Rice just losing to Marshall and looking ahead to LA Tech I think UTEP could surprise them. This is a team on the rise and this would be a huge upset worth more than any other win on the year except of course a bowl win because this team does not have a winning record in 10 years. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Raiders +7.5 4.4* NFL POD; Raiders +295 1* play This is a perfect let down spot for a Chiefs team that has been playing over their head. Why can't the Raiders break their losing streak? The Chiefs have been outgained in 3 games in a row yet they are 3-0. Besides this is a division game and the Raiders should be up for this.. It's almost their Super Bowl in a way and the Chiefs come off a very very big win against Seattle and have to go on the road before getting Denver at home the following week. Off a big win with a big game on deck facing an 0-10 team on the road. It's hard for any team to not look past the Raiders right now. The Raiders only lost 24-30 in Seattle and I think their offense has more potential than Kansas City. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 26-20 | Win | 102 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
K State +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8. Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss. This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU. Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together. Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation. He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest. His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite. Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game. Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper. Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run. Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB. Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not. West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play. Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice. Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia. Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times. All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th. They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins. I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career. Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's. He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play. West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win. Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues. Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation. Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play. In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's. Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts. Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities. |
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11-18-14 | Northern Illinois -2.5 v. Ohio | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
[b]Northern Illinois -2.5 -106 3.5* play[/b] This year's Northern Illinois team is not nearly as good on both sides of the ball, but they are still an elite rushing team. Ohio is not what it used to be and they are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the MAC West which is a much better division. Actually it's not even close. Ohio lost by 21 and 18 to the other 2 MAC West teams it has faced both are below Northern Illinois in the standings. Collectively if you take all of the MAC East teams they are 3-12 vs. the MAC West and recruiting is a big reason why. Part of why Ohio is a small favorite is extra time off, home, and a solid run defense ranked 35th overall. However, almost all of their stats are worse in conference play from rushing and passing offense to defense. I would not trust this team at all and even their run defense is a bit misleading as they have only played 2 other teams ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense and lost to both of them. Northern Illinois is ranked 28th in yards per carry and has shown they are even better when playing in conference. I expect them to win this game and move on to Western Michigan. I'm not biting on the look ahead it seems the line has already factored that in. If you are worried at all Northern Illinois defense is giving up an entire yard less per play on the road and Ohio's offense is very bad ranking 84th in yards per play offense. |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7 | 27-24 | Win | 110 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
Titans +7 +110 3* play |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +1.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
[b]Seahawks +1.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b] The Seahawks are a dog on the road to the Chiefs? They have no business being a dog here considering the Chiefs have been really lucky of late. Last week the Bills fumbled 3 times including once in the end zone and their head coach passed up field goals that would have given them the win over the Chiefs. The same thing the week before as the Jets outgained them by nearly 100 yards. Yes, the Jets out gained them and now they are favored against a team that is in the top 10 in yards/play in offense and defense. The Broncos are the only opponent in the top 14 in yards/play offense that this Chiefs team has played and they lost. The Seahawks will win this game and look forward to their next game against the Cardinals to reclaim the division. [b] Packers +1/Saints -1 4.4* 6 point teaser[/b] The Saints suffered a rare loss at home to the 49ers under Sean Payton that just does not happen. They had won 20 straight prior to that and are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 games. Now the Saints get the Bengals angry after losing at home and getting embarrassed on Thursday night, but the Saints are in a thick division hunt and I doubt they care about that. I look for the Saints to win this game, but 7 points is a lot and it’s mainly due to the fact that the Bengals looked awful vs. the Browns. The reality is the Bengals are not that bad, but I don’t see them winning this game. I’ll take the Saints in a teaser with…. The Packers. The Packers have been almost unbeatable at home. Aaron Rodgers is just too good and he’s beaten good QB after good QB. He has yet to throw an interception at home and the Eagles are coming in high off their win with their new QB Mark Sanchez, but now Sanchez has to win on the road against a very good team. I have trust in Sanchez in this system, but he’s got to put up 30+ points here and I don’t see it happening not the way the Packers have played at home. |
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11-15-14 | Florida State -2.5 v. Miami (Fla) | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Florida St -2.5 4.4* Miami is the hot pick for a lot of experts, but I'm certainly not buying it. I get Florida State has looked very beatable this year. It is almost as if they are bored out there, but playing their in state rival Miami that won't be the case. I also don't think that this will be a true home game for Miami. Miami has had issues getting their fans to the stadium and I think Florida State fans will make up 40% of the crowd here tonight. Miami will have to score more than 30 points to win this game. I don't see it happening with a freshmen QB given how well Florida State has stopped the running game this year with only 4 of their 9 opponents reaching the end zone on a rushing TD. They are allowing 3.08 yards per carry meaning Brendan Kayya has to win this game at some point and I don't see it happening. Why 30 points? Well Florida State has scored 30+ points in every single game Jameis Winston has played. Miami has won 3 in a row by 21+ but they were against average teams. Miami this year is just 1-3 against ranked opponents this year. Their home win against Duke was nice, but Duke is very much one dimensional with just a running game while Florida State has the best pocket QB in the nation since Andrew Luck. Florida State has the significant advantage in the red zone with 78% success rate in conference play as far as TD% is concerned while Miami is allowing 69%. Florida State's defense in the red zone has been great allowing 41% TD's in conference play and Miami is sitting at 44% struggling to score in the red zone and convert on third downs with just 28% on the season. I don't see how they can score over 30 and win this game. Texas +4.5/Bama -2.5 7pt -130 teaser 4*[/b] Alabama is coming off a huge win while Miss State is coming off a bye. I think Miss state has been resting for this game for a while, but I just don't think they have enough to get the win. Alabama just matches up too well with their run defense and the fact that their best player on the field is a WR in Amari Cooper. MIss State is the worst in the SEC and one of the worst in the nation in pass defense and that's not a characteristic a #1 team in the nation can carry. Alabama has been absolutely dominant at home this year and I think they win this one by a 1-2 TD's. I'll tease it with Texas for the fact that Alabama is coming off a physical game and MIss State had the bye. Texas is quietly turning their season around 3 wins in 4 games and they need 1 more to get to a bowl. The defense has been absolutely dominant and they should be again today. Oklahoma State is not a good team and Texas has handled bad teams this year. All of Oklahoma State's stats are worse in conference play. The two most shocking stats about this team is their QB play which has been significantly down this year compared to recent history and their ability to force turnovers. Oklahoma State has been a guarantee for 30+ turnovers a season over the last 5 years and they have gotten big wins because of that, but this season they don't even have 10 forced turnovers and it has really hurt them. Texas will control this game and win in the red zone where their offense and defense has significant advantages. |
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11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
Arkansas pk 5.5* SEC GOY Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky. It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State. Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did. Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State. I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win. They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama. This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game. This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense. If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes. Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas. Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game. LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good. LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry. LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road. They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming. Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT. He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game. Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home. LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did. Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check. Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home. Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball. All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball. Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession. Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road. In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night. |
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11-15-14 | Auburn v. Georgia -2.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Georgia -2.5 2.2* play I have said all year that Auburn does not have the same team as a year ago and it was prove last week against Texas A&M as a 3 TD favorite. They even had a chance to win it in the end but 2 TO's cost them and now I don't see how this team gets up for this game. They need a miracle to win their division to get back into the national title talk. Meanwhile Georgia can run the table and get into the tournament with an SEC Championship which is not that crazy. Auburn wins when they stop the run allowing 3.25 ypc in wins and 5.05 in losses. A&M and MIss State ran for 5.03 and 5.07 yard per carry while Ole Miss who should have won ran for 4.87. Georgia can most certainly run the ball here in this won with Todd Gurley back to go along with Nick Chubb arguably the best tandem that Auburn has faced all year. Mix in the fact that Huston Mason has been accurate with 69% completion percentage and given how bad the Auburn pass defense has been I think Georgia can win this one by double digits. Goergia has been waiting for this game for a while after last year's tip ball loss. I suffered a max ATS loss in that game, but I think Georgia gets their revenge. They haven't been at home in well over a month and their defense will play well here. Auburn's turnover issues will come back up as Georgia takes care of the ball with only 6 turnovers all season! |
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11-15-14 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -2.5 | 35-40 | Win | 100 | 39 h 16 m | Show | |
North Carolina -2.5 2.2* Play Both teams are off a bye here and I'll take North Carolina, a team that is much more experienced than Pitt. Pitt's team is one of the youngest in the country and it's starting to show late. The bye will certainly help, but they will be on the road against UNC who is also coming off the bye. Pitt is allowing 5.68 ypc in their losses on the ground and 2.15 in their wins. The only opponents they allowed to rush under 4 yards per carry are ranked 88th or worse. North Carolina features a dual threat QB in Marquise Williams and Pitt just has not seen a player like him all year long. Pitt's run defense has been an issue in conference play and it's carried over to their red zone defense where they are allowing a 70% TD percentage. UNC may not have much of a defense, but they can certainly come up with a few stops and win the TO margin in this one as Pitt's defense has only forced 11 TO"s on the year and are -6. |
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11-15-14 | Iowa -3.5 v. Illinois | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 21 m | Show | |
Iowa -3 -120 buy hook 4* Early Bird I'll take Iowa who is an amazing 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a SU loss. That is purely on coaching and their is a reason why Kirk Ferentz has been at Iowa forever. Illinois is 6-16 ATS int heir last 22 conference games and actually beat Minnesota in their last home game, the same team that Iowa just got blasted by 51-14. This line would have been -7 or so if Iowa did not lay an egg on the road last season and they need a win here to get into a decent bowl game. Illinois is in a difficult spot here coming off a bye they are starting their QB Wes Lunt who has ridiculous passing numbers, but he has not played since October 4th. Somehow Lunt has avoided every top pass defense on the schedule. His 5 starts have been against pass defense that are all outside the top 75 with the addition of an FCS opponent. Lunt has not played in over a month and now he has to come back to face Iowa who is 2nd in passing yards allowed and top 10 in every other pass defense category. Illinois does not have a running game to lean on like the other teams that Iowa has struggled against on their schedule. Illinois running offense and defense is -3.7 yards per carry in conference play. They allow over 6.5 and have rushed for just 3.07 in conference play. Iowa will bounce back again here. When they lose it's usually turnovers that hurt them with -5 in losses +4 in wins. Their last two road games produced 6 turnovers against Maryland and Minnesota. Both those teams are very good at forcing turnovers with 27 in their home games combined. Illinois is -8 in turnover margin and has forced only 6 in 5 conference games. Illinois is also very poor in red zone defense allowing 75% red zone TD percentage to conference foes while Iowa is averaging 70% in conference play. The running game and play action over the top to the TE's will allow Iowa to control and dominate this game. |
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11-13-14 | California +14.5 v. USC | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
[b]Cal +14.5 3.3* POD[/b] The only teams USC has blown out this year have been Fresno, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State. All of those teams are unlikely to go bowling with a combined record of 13-25. California is definitely experiencing a resurgence here this season and even their losses are not that bad. The big losses against Washington and Oregon were due to fumble issues the offense had otherwise they played well with both but had nearly half their turnovers all year in that game. Cal played right with UCLA and Arizona in 2 games decided by 6 points. USC has had issues stopping opponent passing games and Jared Goff should have another big day and improve on his 27 TD and 4 interceptions this year. Goff is also doign it in the conference with 21 TD and 3 INT's. He's played well on the road too and USC's pass rush has been non-existent ranking 89th in sack % and they are 100th in passing yards allowed. USC also has some bigger games up next @UCLA and Notre Dame and could be looking ahead a bit. [b]Bills +10.5 / Cincinnati +7.5 3.3* Teaser[/b] |
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11-11-14 | Akron -4.5 v. Buffalo | 24-55 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Akron -4 2.2* Play I'll take Akron the fact they are road favorites by this much says a lot about Buffalo. Akron really was not as bad as last week's loss to Bowling Green. There was some tough weather that really limited what this team could do and I think they'll be a lot more agressive here tonight agaisnt Buffalo. Akron's offense have faced 3 tough defensive units in a row and now they'll face Buffalo, a team ranked 119th in yards per play allowed, Akron is ranked 40th and have shut down some pretty good offenses along the way (Penn State/Pitt). Terry Bowden was supposed to take this team to a MAC East title, but he can still get to a bowl game and it starts tonight with two winnable games on deck. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +8 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 21-45 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
[b]Panthers +7.5 3.3* play[/b] This line has too much value now that it's gone up to 7.5 at some books. I'm not very scared of the Eagles defense ranking 23rd vs. the pass and 20th vs. the run. Cam Newton and the Panthers have had 10 days to prepare for this game with extra motivation because even at 3-5-1 they are looking at an easy schedule on the back end and a win here would put them in tied with the Saints. Following the Panthers is easy to see where and why they have struggled. The Panthers are 1-4 vs. teams ranked inside the top 15 in rushing defense and 3-1 SU and ATS against teams not ranked in the top 15. They get Deangelo Williams back to add more health to their team and their defense gets to go up against Mark Sanchez who can be his own worst enemy. Sanchez is used to the boos, but Philadelphia could be worse. I won't be surprised to see Sanchez manage the game, but I don't think he will light it up. |
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11-09-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
BILLS -1.5 5.5* NFL POD |
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11-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
Tampa Bucs +3 2.2*/ Cardinals -1/Packers -1.5 6pt tease 4.4* play |
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11-08-14 | Alabama -6.5 v. LSU | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 8 m | Show | |
Alabama -6.5 4.4* play Both teams come off a bye for this highly anticipated match up. For me this match up is pretty easy as both teams are going to try to runt he ball before they pass. Alabama is more equiped to do it and stop it. LSU is a young team and they are getting credit for their win against Ole MIss who is more of a finesse team, and their 34-29 loss against Miss State. Alabama is angry they are not in the top 4 and they have had 2 weeks to think about it. Expect a big win for them and LSU is definitely suspect to that type of a loss because they are extremely young. We saw them get behind Wisconsin (very similar style to Alabama) 24-7, and Miss State (very similar style to Alabama) 31-10 and they lost to Auburn 41-7 on the road. Alabama will get up and they won't look back in my opinion. LSU is 94th in yards per carry defense. Against Auburn, MIss State and Wisconsin who are all similar in rushing to Alabama, LSU allowed over 6 yards per carry and ran for less than 4 yards per carry themselves. Alabama is the better run defense 3rd in the country, and has the better passing game to balance it out. Crimson Tide's QB Blake Simms has a 172 QB rating, 15 TD/ 3 INT and is averaging 10.2 yards per passing attempt. Amari Cooper will not allow LSU to try to stop the run and this pass defense that has been solid is vulnerable to big passing plays. Against Miss State and Auburn they allowed 11 plays for over 20 yards and that's something that shows up in the tape for Nick Saban. LSU does not have to worry as much about LSU passing it since they run it 67% of the time behind a veteran offensive line. Alabama though is the best run defense this group has faced and I already mentioned how they struggled against Wisconsin, Auburn and Miss State rushing for |
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11-08-14 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 49-37 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 7 m | Show |
Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD This is my play of the day. A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten. I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska. However, I like their chances here at home. Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%. Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second. Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated. He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes. The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home. Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush. Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who? The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech. The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more. Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25. Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75. So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides. Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense. For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State. Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions. The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run. Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year. They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler. |
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11-08-14 | Kansas State +6 v. TCU | 20-41 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 36 m | Show | |
Kansas State +6 3.3* play Kansas State is probably the most challenging opponent to date for TCU and I just think 6 points is too much. Kansas State does everything well they are a disciplined balanced team that nearly beat Auburn at home and probably should have beaten Auburn at home. To me the better defense will win this game and Kansas State is more equiped to stop the run. TCU has allowed 3 teams to reach 30+ points while Kansas State has only allowed 1. TCU's two closest games against Oklahoma and their loss against Baylor were games where they were held under 4 yards per carry. Kansas State is 8th in the nation in run defense allowing opponents to rush for 3.1 ypc. Kansas State doesn't just get it done in run defense they have faced 6 QB's from power 5 conferences and have allowed just 8 TD passes and 9 INT's with only 6 gains over 25 yards. They also have held multiple mobile QB's like Boykin in check in fact QB's have averaged just 2.34 ypc. Kansas State's offense is under rated their QB Jake Waters is efficient and has next level WR that are falling under the radar especially Tyler Lockett who is going to be difficult to guard for Kevin White. Kansas State does not turn the ball over and that's something TCU has relied on to get big wins. Kansas State has turned it over just 7 times all year while TCU has forced 26. TCU's run defense will be challenged in Kansas State's only loss they were held under 100 yards rushing, but TCU is allowing 3.90 yards per carry in conference play. Kansas State should be able to pick up yardage and create third and short. They are converting 49% of their third downs on the season and in conference play. That goes along with their 73% TD percentage in the red zone which will be hard for TCU to defend. |
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11-08-14 | West Virginia v. Texas +3.5 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show | |
Texas +3.5 3.3* Play This is West Virginia's most challenging road game as they played Alabama on a neutral site. West Virginia's defense has been the real story of late. It can give certain teams fits, but not Texas as they have put up 47 and 45 points the last two years. Those Texas offenses were no better than this years version and I see more potential with Texas this year. Tyrone Swopes has now played great in 3 of their last 4 games. West Virginia at the end of the day is still an average defense ranking 70th in yards per play meanwhile Texas is ranked 13th. Texas has a real shot at a bowl game here, but this is the must win they need and I think they will get. West Virginia struggles with a physical running game that Texas will try to impose with play action and option running sprinkled in with Swopes. West Virginia is allowing 5.63 yards per carry on the road and have allowed big games against some bad running teams like Maryland who doubled their season average and Oklahoma State who ranked 98th but averaged 4.97 ypc. Texas is improving averaging 4.5 ypc over their last 3. You can tell this team is buying in. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
[b]Bengals -6 4.4* NFL POD[/b] I'll go with the home team here on the short week. The Browns are not a good football team despite their record and they are getting more credit than they deserve. The Browns are 5-3, but their last 4 wins came against the Titans (big come back), Oakland, Tampa Bay, and PIttsburgh (who was playing their 4th road game 5 weeks). The other 3 are a combined 3-21 and they lost to the Jaguars 24-6 in between. They were very lucky to even get by the Titans at the time when Jake Locker got injured before the half when they were trailing by 25 points to the Titans. This is not a team of destiny and they are going to fade fast especially without Alex Mack. Without Mack the rushing offense went form averaging 154 to 54. On the other side the Bengals who opened the year as everyone's dark horse to challenge the Broncos for the AFC Championship are 5-2-1. However, looka t who they have played, New England, Baltimore 2x, and the Colts. Those are some of the best QB's in the league for you fantasy football fans out there. Now the Bengals get to face the Browns unimpressive passing game and a rushing game that's not going anywhere especially on the road. This is a very good home team and I see them dominating this game as they have to in order to keep their distance in a tight division. |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois -3 v. Ball State | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois -3 3.3* play This is an excellent match up for Northern Illinois even on the road. Teams that can run the ball typically can compete on the road and the fact that Ball State is allowing 5.6 yards per carry ranking 116th looks good for the Huskies. Ball State has allowed 5.57 ypc in losses and 4.00 in wins. Ball State was getting a lot of credit for their wins lately, but their win over Akron last week suddenly doesn't look very good. Northern Illinois on the other hand just got done playing the two worst teams in the MAC and arguably the country in Eastern Mich and Miami (OH). They have been looking towards this game for a while along with Toledo next week. Northern Illinois is running the ball 64% of the time ranking 23rd in yards per carry 5.3, but has been even better in conference play at 6.18. The two teams that Ball State has faced that can run the ball they lost to. That includes Western Mich who averaged 4.7 pc on the year and ran for 6.93. Northern Illinois has also had much more of a challenging schedule when you look at the fact that they faced Northwestern and Arkansas and only one other FCS school while Ball State faced Iowa and 2 FCS schools in non-conference. Northern Illinois should be up for this game and the value is there considering they have lost their last 5 ATS. This is a midweek game with national exposure on ESPN! |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 54 m | Show |
NY Jets +10 5.5* NFL POD & Game of the Month! lock this in early as the line will surely go down. I really like Mike Vick with a full week to prepare and play with this offense he really adds another dynamic that Geno Smith clearly did not. Also as bad as the Jets looked they actually out gained the Bills on Sunday and doubled their # of first downs. 6 turnovers will get you beat no matter what. At this point the Jets have to go back to the run and adding Mike Vick's versatile style to the mix can only help with a full week of reps with the first team. For the Chiefs their offense is not explosive enough to take advantage of the Jets weaknesses which is in the pass defense. The Jets are absolutely stout in the front 7 and have one of the best defensive lines in football. The Chiefs will run first and pass second even with Andy Reid and their offensive line is 28th in pass protection and they are just 25th in passing yards per pass attempt. When you look at the Jets secondary they have played 3 of the top 5 passing teams + Tom Brady. Right now stock is as low as it's ever been for the Jets and I'll jump on them to cover this spread on the road. |
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11-01-14 | Auburn v. Ole Miss -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 48 m | Show | |
Ole Miss -2 4.4* SEC Game of the Week Auburn is a one dimensional offense ranked 84th in pass and 10th in the run and same goes for their defense they can’t seem to stop the pass, but they are solid vs. the run. Ole Miss strengths fit nice here and they have a solid balanced defense that is one of the best in the nation ranking top 25 in pass and run defense. LSU wasn’t supposed to beat Ole Miss and the offense looked horrible and now we get a spread that’s at least 2 points in our advantage. If Ole Miss wins that game we are looking at them at a -4 favorite in my opinion. This was a 30-22 game last year and Auburn is clearly not the same team, but they are being treated like they are following a 395 yard effort on the ground (a season high) in their last game, but that was against South Carolina ranked 124th in rushing defense. Ole Miss leans on Bo Wallace to play a good game to win, and I have never trusted him on the road so I wasn’t surprised to see him looking lost at LSU at night with all the noise.. Now people forget what he did against Alabama. People forget what this team did against Alabama. Auburn notoriously wins with big plays and Ole Miss is 3rd allowing just 4.2 yards per play and even better 3.6 at home which is good for 3rd in the country. Auburn’s two struggles this year have been against Miss State 13th passing the ball, and Kansas State 24th. Now they face Ole Miss who has the passing game and a better defense than both. This is basically an elimination game and I’ll take Ole Miss at home to win it. |
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11-01-14 | Colorado State v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
San Jose State +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Colorado State is looking like the real deal at 7-1 winning on the road against Boston College. IN all three of their close games and losses have come against top 60 pass defenses. Grayson leads Colorado State with a 165 QB rating in 4 conference games, but he’s not as good on the road (136). They won by 3 vs. Utah State who has the 30th ranked pass defense, by 3 against BC who has the 57th, and they lost against Boise State by 13 who is ranked 47th. Enter San Jose State who is ranked #1 in opponent QB rating, #1 in opponent yards/attempt, and #1 in opponent completion %. They even held Auburn to 135 yards passing and they have allowed just 1 passing TD all year without any QB passing for more than 150 yards. Part of their dominance is nobody tries to pass on them, but Colorado State is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in the running game and will have issues on the road against this team. San Jose State would have a better record if it weren’t for their -7 TO margin in losses. Good news for them Colorado State’s defense is below average and has only forced a total of 7 turnovers on the season. A further look at common opponents and San Jose was +194 vs. Wyoming on the road, Col State was +104 at home. As well as +190 vs. Nevada and while Colorado State was -12 on the road. San Jose State has been a dog 2 of the last 3 years but have won all of these meetings. Colorado State is a very good team, but San Jose State has already played Navy, Minnesota and Auburn so this is nothing new for them. |
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11-01-14 | Kentucky +8.5 v. Missouri | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 5 m | Show | |
Kentucky +8 3.3* Play Kentucky nearly upset Miss State at home, and they have clearly shown they are team on the rise. Mark Stoops knows how to coach and recruit and they had a top 20 recruiting class this past year already showing dividends. They get back Boom Williams which should help the offense find more balance. Patrick Towles however is showing he’s going to be able to play at the next level and is living up to his 4 star ranking coming out of high school. Missouri’s offense is just terrible right now, they rank 113th passing the ball as they lost a ton of weapons from last year and Matty Mauk just looks lost. That should allow Kentucky to gear up to stop the run. These teams have 3 common opponents in SEC play and Kentucky is better in +/- yardage in all three. This spread is still hinging on the brand of Missouri football (from last year) and the fact that Kentucky hasn’t been good in a very long time, but that’s starting to change. Missouri has not played well at home and I don’t see that changing here. |
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11-01-14 | Northwestern +4 v. Iowa | 7-48 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 6 m | Show | |
Northwestern +4 2.2* Early Bird Play I don’t typically look into strength of schedule too much, but both Iowa and Northwestern look pretty even statistically on paper as both have struggling offenses and have been led by their defenses and both are coming off byes. This will be Northwestern’s third game in a row facing an opponent off a bye and they lost their last 2, but at least they will be off a bye themselves which should help here. A close look at Iowa’s defense ranked 26th in yards/play allowed reveals they have faced an average 74.5 ranked offense form a yds/play perspective without a single opponent in the top 50. To put that in perspective Northwestern’s defense has faced 4 in the top 50 and an average of 43rd. Looking at the stats I’d say Northwestern’s unit is more equipped to have a better defensive game. Offensively Iowa has faced an average 80th ranked defense form a yards/play perspective and again not a single opponent in the top 50. Northwestern’s average opponent defense ranked 43rd and they have faced 4 in the top 30 so it’s no wonder their offense has struggled. Northwestern’s defense has held every single team under their season average in rushing yards per carry with exception of Wisconsin who they ironically beat. Iowa is average already ranking 89th in rushing the ball and should have issues moving the ball. I’m expecting a low scoring game here and I’ll take the under dog that’s not getting credit. You could argue that 4 or 5 of Northwestern’s opponents are better than the top 2 teams that Iowa faced which is Pitt and Maryland. Pat Fitzgerald has also had a lot of success against Iowa 5-3 all time and 3-2 on the road. |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -3.5 v. Louisville | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]FSU -3 -120 buy hook 4* PLAY[/b] This line has dropped more than 4 points since opening and can be found at -3.5 in majority of books.. It's too much value now on the side of Florida State who is 1-6 ATS on the year. Perception is that they are not as good as last year yet they still have the best QB in the land behind 4 returning offensive linemen and they have put up 30+ points in all 6 of his starts this year, some against some top defenses. Coming off a bye where they won a close won against Notre Dame should help as Winston just lit it up at the end of that game. I think the offense gets better here and the defense as well. Remember off a bye last year they went to Clemson and won 51-14. Here comes Louisville with the #1 defense by far. However, they have only played one team ranked inside the top 60 in yards per play and that was Miami in the first week of the season. Louisville has not faced a top 50 passing attack from a QB rating perspective since Miami and MIami has come a long way since their loss to Louisville. Winston and Florida State is just a different monster that I don't think Louisville can win. For one their offensive line has been terrible ranked 122nd in pass protection and 113th in yards per carry. You better put up 30 points against the Seminoles if you are going to have any shot at winning. The strength of Louisville has been the passing game, but that falls right into the strength of Florida State's defense with two 1st round draft picks at corner in PJ Williams and Ronald Darby who have yet to play up to their potential. This game is all about where people think Florida State is.. they have had over a week to hear how they are not as good and how they were lucky to beat Notre Dame. I see this game being close late and that's just a situation I don't see that Louisville is experienced enough to win. Florida State has needed some heroics in 4 of their last 8 games late in the game either 4th quarter or OT so they are very much used to it. Jameis Winston has a 194.57 QB rating in the 4th quarter. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Saints -2.5 5.5* nfl play of the day |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Steelers +3.5 3.3* |
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10-25-14 | Georgia Tech +3 v. Pittsburgh | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 53 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +3 4.4* Play (3:30pm ET) Pitt is off a big win that looks less impressive seeing how bad Virginia Tech has looked over the past few weeks. Pitt is one of the youngest teams and they will be a bit high on themselves following a win and that won’t help when they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option rushing game. Nobody can stop the triple option it seems and while Pitt’s run defense has been very good this year they have only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense while Georgia Tech is top 10 in yards per game and yards per carry and it’s a unique unit they haven’t really been used to facing. Georgia Tech put up 297 yards on them last year and this unit is less experienced. Meanwhile Pitt is doing a great job of running the ball also, and Georgia Tech has not been able to stop any running teams. Georgia Tech has faced 4 teams in the top 40 in yards per carry as well as North Carolina’s running QB. Georgia Tech will prove to be just too much as Justin Thomas can throw the ball too and they are converting 59% on third down and 71% in the red zone which will be the difference since Pitt has allowed 73.33% TD’s in the red zone this year. |
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10-25-14 | Michigan +17.5 v. Michigan State | 11-35 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 51 m | Show | |
Michigan +17 2.2* Play (3:30pm ET) Rivalry game here and Michigan State has Ohio State next. These players will fight for their coach and they have an extra week of preparation. Michigan’s defense is playing out of their minds when you consider how bad the offense has been. They are 11th in yards per play allowed and 6th in yards per carry and 28th in sack %. This is the best defense Michigan State has faced considering they haven’t faced a past rush unit in the top 50 before, and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense. Both games they struggled to run the ball they were held to 27 points as they fell apart late against Oregon and nearly lost against Nebraska. Michigan has been bad and they may lose this by 50, but there is too much value in this rivalry game and I bet the Wolverines come out with a little passion and cover the spread because their defense has been solid all year. |
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10-25-14 | Texas +10 v. Kansas State | 0-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Texas +10 4.4* Play (12pm ET) We were on Kansas State’s big win over Oklahoma last week, but now they are in an interesting game which is very dangerous. First of all throw out Texas lack of defense last week against Iowa State. It can all be fixed and it was expected following their game against Oklahoma which is also their biggest rivalry. They will turn it around this week and Texas is the most complete defense that Kansas State has faced all year which is a concern. Kansas State’s offense has looked great behind Jake Waters, but they haven’t faced a pass rush like this before. Texas is in the top 10 in sack %, opponent QB rating and passing yards per attempt. Their run defense has struggled a bit but is still top 45 in the nation and Kansas State’s ground game is not what it’s been in the past. Texas has shown they can dominate in run defense especially early in games and I think Kansas State will rely on their running game so much that it will shorten the game and give Texas a chance. Texas has a chance because the offense has dramatically improved behind Tyrone Swopes who is off back to back solid performances against better passing defenses than Kansas State. Kansas State could win the Big 12 but they won’t because of their pass defense. Part of the problem is they are 124th in sack % and 84th in opponent QB rating. For what it’s worth Kansas State only beat Iowa State by 4 while Texas only won by 3. I think Texas is not as far away as we once thought. Both teams also played Oklahoma similarly. |
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10-24-14 | Troy +15 v. South Alabama | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Troy +15 -108 3.5* Friday Night Lights I'll Take Troy here as they are not as bad as their 53-14 loss agaisnt App State, but on paper if you look real quick the public will hammer South Alabama because of this. Their 53-14 loss at home was worse because South Alabama won 47-21 on the road against App State, but App State was able to move the ball just fine on South Alabama. The difference in both of those games was turnovers and I'll use that to our advantage, becasue I don't think South Alabama is as good as what the line is saying. First of all this is an instate rivalry and South Alabama has 2 games coming up next against Arkansas State and La Lafayette which will determine their fate in the Sun Belt Conference. I see them peaking ahead given the fact that the players will simply over look this team. Troy's run defense has been hit or miss, but it's worth noting they have come up with some decent performances.. For instance they held Duke a very good running team under their season average. It's worth noting Duke has been a one dimensional team which leaves me to believe that Troy can play decent defense against a team that can't throw the ball. South Alabama can not throw the ball and their QB is only completing 51.4% of his passes compared with Troy's QB Brandon Silvers completing 68.7%. South Alabama will rely on their running game, but they just lost thier star RB Jay Jones toa season ending injury and their rushing offense has only out rushed what their opponent was giving up once this season and that was to Georgia State who is worse in run defense then Troy and they still only beat them by 3 points. At the end of the day this could be another lousy team going on the road only to get beat, but they are playing for a good head coach who will be retiring against an in state rival who is looking ahead to more important games. I'll take the greater than 2 TD spread. |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +9.5 v. Denver Broncos | 21-35 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Chargers +9.5 3.3* play I've said it many times this year I don't like these Thursday night games. I would have played my NY Jets last week, again because 9-10 points is just too much for a divisional game where two teams know each other so well. The Jets had a chance to win it last week as I knew they would, but again I never play on or against my own team... Here we have the Chargers and Broncos who the Jets ironically faced in back to back weeks. I just don't see how the two teams are 9.5 point favorites and because the home team has dominated the Thursday match ups we are seeing quite a bit of value on the Chargers in my opinion. San Diego is an offense that can dominate time of possession with their offense and that's how they stay in the games against the Broncos last year. They once again are 2nd in the league in 3rd down conversions at 51.46%. They have plugged in another RB who is looking good in Branden Oliver. The Chargers are all also off 2 negative performances losing to the Chiefs at home and struggling to beat the Raiders the week before, but this team had to have been looking towards this game with revenge. Peyton Manning just played on Sunday night and got the TD record.. I can see the Broncos taking it easy and being conservative in this match up. |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright. The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs. Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home. Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies. Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run. Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs. I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far. Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop. The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville. Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses. Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB. What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game. Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense. Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success. Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home. Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season. The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents. Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced. The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road. Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%. The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home. Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. |
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10-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Denver Broncos | 17-42 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
49ers +7 3.3* play [/b] This could easily be the Super Bowl match up, but right now the 49ers are playing their best ball. Injuries are a concern but they are getting healthy at certain spots and although Patrick Willis will miss this game the former Big 10 player of the year Chris Borland will take over and I"m not so sure he's not just as good. The 49ers have incredible depth and they have great offensive line play which will help them win on the road. The 49ers physical brand of football is exactly what will give the Broncos a bit of issue and I see this as a playoff type game with the game being decided in the final minutes. 7 points is a bargain even against Peyton Manning. |
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10-19-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders +4 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Raiders +4 4.4* play[/b] Arizona's offense has been awful, but they are getting lucky against heavily penalized teams and turnovers with balls that bounce the right way. Now they get Carson Palmer back, but still expect him to be not ready to just jump back into it against his former team. Oakland was off a bye last week with a new coach and looked like a completely different group against the Chargers and I think that carries over this week. Cardinals defense is suspect vs. the pass ranking 18th in opp QB rating, 28th in yards per pass attempt and 30th in sack %. Derek Carr is quietly gaining confidence and showing he can play in this league. The most important factor here again is the offensive line and Oakland is 2nd allowing just 2.11% sacks which is impressive with a rookie QB at the helm. |
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10-18-14 | Nebraska v. Northwestern +7 | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
Northwestern +7 2.2* play Northwestern has turned their season around and could have won on the road last week if it weren't for a 100 yard kickoff return they allowed late in the 4th quarter after a brilliant 97 yard TD drive by Trevor Siemann. Minnesota only manged 274 yards as Northwestern's defense continues to play well. Northwestern can stop the run and I'm not surprised that Minnesota won last week at home coming off a bye when Northwestern was off two huge Big Ten wins. I think Northwestern has a good chance to bounce back against Nebraska who relies on the run too much. Nebraska has been running it 64% of the time with good reason they have the best RB int he country and they are averaging 6.22 ypc, but a closer look and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense and that was Michigan State who they averaged 1.27 ypc against. Tommy Armstrong just can't be the difference maker as he is completing just 51.9% of his passes and has a tendency to turn the ball over which is a big deal considering Northwestern has allowed 6 TD and has 9 interceptions and are ranked 23rd in opposing QB rating to go with their top 50 run defense. These two traditionally play in close games as Northwestern has lost some heart breakers the last few years including last year by a hail mary. The last 3 games have been decided by 7 points combined and I see no reason why this one won't come down to 1 possession. |
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10-18-14 | Missouri +5.5 v. Florida | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 23 m | Show | |
Missouri +6 4* play -120 Missouri is certainly not as bad as it showed last week in their 34-0 loss to Georgia as MIssouri turned the ball over 5 times. They had only turned the ball over 4 times before that game. I Look for them to bounce back here as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a SU loss. Gary Pinkel is a much better coach than Will Muschamp who is 4-11 ATS following a SU loss. I don't think his team plays for him and after a devastating loss to LSU last week we will surely find out if he's on his way out. What got lost in Missouri's loss to Georgia last week was their defense that is just as good as Florida's. They were on the field for 42 minutes and still held Georgia in check. Florida's offense is just terrible led by Jeff Driskel who has a 102 QB Rating. I still trust Matty Mauk more who has more than twice the number of TD's and is completing more than 1 yards more per attempts. Missouri is just a bit better in red zone offense and defense and that will be the difference in my opinion. |
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10-18-14 | San Jose State -1.5 v. Wyoming | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
San Jose -1.5 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Month San Jose State comes into the game off their second bye week of the young season. That's a big advantage especailly this week with Wyoming playing last Saturday night or early Sunday in Hawaii. Having to fly all the way back and play a team off a bye is a major disadvantage for a team that is struggling. Wyoming has been decent passing the ball ranked in the top 75 in QB Rating and pass completion %, but have struggled to run the ball and now they face San Jose State who is 2nd in opponent completion % and 1st in opponent QB rating. San Jose has allowed only 1 passing TD and held Auburn on the road to 56% completion % and were only -174 yards and held the ball for 35 minutes of the game. San Jose's offense will get a chance to get both the running and passing game going when you consider Wyoming's defense is 101st in yards/play allowed and ranked 104th vs. the run and 110th vs. the pass. San Jose has advantages on third down allowing 35% conversions compared with Wyoming 49%. Wyoming has a couple of wins at home against Air Force and Florida Atlantic, but San Jose is just a bit better and has more speed than both of those teams. |
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10-18-14 | Georgia v. Arkansas +3.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games. They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT. Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times. MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards. Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards. Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense. They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas. The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times. Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year. Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well. IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams. The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East. Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15. Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game. Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright. Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated. Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC. |
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10-18-14 | Syracuse v. Wake Forest +6 | 30-7 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +6 3.3* early bird play Syracuse has not had a true road game in over a month and Wake Forest is off a bye. Syracuse is now without their QB Terrel Hunt and will start a QB with even less experience than Wake Forest's starter. Wake Forest's defense is enough to completely overwhelm the Syracuse offense that has struggled. They held Syracuse on the road to 13 points last year, but their offense put up a goose egg. Things could be different this year despite Syracuse's defense being very good again, because of the bye and the fact that Syracuse pass defense has allowed 76% completion over their last 3 games. Look for Wake to pull out all the stops to get a win here. Both teams have had red zone issues scoring TD's at just 39% of their attempts while the defenses have been solid, but Wake's red zone defense has been better at 43% to Syracuse 54%. Wake allowed Louisville and Florida State to go 3-7 in the red zone for TD% and they did that on the road. Syracuse was home in both of those games and allowed the two to go 7-9. There is just too much value with the home dog here despite their struggling offense I think JOhn Wolford will be able to put up some points involving WR EJ Scott and TE Sam Serigne as Syracuse has allowed 10 passing TD's over the last 4 games. I also expect Wake to have the advantage on special teams as they are 8-8 on field goals Syracuse is 10-14. Their punt coverage is also better allowing 7.13 yards per return while Syracuse has given up a TD already and 13.4 yards. Wake also has a TD return this year out of their punt unit while Syracuse does not. |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well. So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win. Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite. As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team. How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down? Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year. They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building. Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry. Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright. Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush. USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that. Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion. Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense. They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle. |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road. First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28. Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game. I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country. Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run. Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both. At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss. Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game. At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. |
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10-12-14 | Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
Falcons -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD Listen both of these teams were supposed to have a better record at this point in the season, but they don't. Bottom line is the Falcons are home and their home field advantage is probably worth more than 3 points. Falcons are averaging over 500 yards at home while the Bears are averaging less than 300 on the road and though it has a lot to do with the competition both faced I think in the end it will be the Falcons that have more capability to move the ball with a balanced offense. Atlanta is capable of moving the ball via Matt Ryan but this team is also running the ball well in the top 10 in yards per rush. That's a big issue for this Bears defense that is not your Father's Bears defense. The Bears have shown that a good running game and a good passing game can beat them. Chicago is ranked 21st vs. the run and 25th in yards per pass attempt. Atlanta #3 in the red zone in TD% and #1 in yards/play. Falcons major advantage at home and need this game. |
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10-11-14 | USC -2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 37 m | Show |
USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite. Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses? Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game. Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58. Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL. First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it. Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy. I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home. When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense. USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success. USC is also tough against the run despite their rank. Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense. Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions. He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense. Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents. Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190. Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain. Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites. USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games. Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense. |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -2 | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show | |
TX A&M -2 4.4* SEC GOW Ole Miss just got done with arguably their biggest win in program history. Shit.. we even saw their QB Bo Wallace being carried off the field and the goal posts being ripped down. Talk about going back to old times. I don't see this team re-grouping against an A&M team that has more offense than this Ole Miss defense has seen all year and they have to face it on the road. Even the Ole Miss run defense showed holes against Alabama allowing nearly double their season ypc allowed. Bo Wallace simply can't carry this team on the road in my opinion. Maybe he can do it against Vanderbilt on the road right now but not against A&M where he will be required to score in the 30's. I just don't like how they match up here.. For one thing A&M's stock is down and they are looking for redemption right now and what better way then to face a team that just beat Bama. A&M is humbled right now and they have a good coach and are 6-2 ATS following a SU loss so I like them here especially when you look at what goes on up front. A&M is better at pressuring the QB and protecting the QB ranking top 20 in both. Ole Miss front is nasty, but on the road that should be a different story against a QB that can run and throw and if it weren't for 9 drops by his receivers last week we could be seeing A&M undefeated and listed as a 6 point favorite. Ole MIss is ranked 82nd in sack % while Kenny Hill has been sacked |
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10-11-14 | Penn State +1 v. Michigan | 13-18 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 54 m | Show | |
Penn St +1 3.3* Big10 GOW On paper this almost looks to obvious with how poor Michigan looks right now. Listen Brady Hoke is on his way out and he knows it. I don't see him fighting for his job nor do I see the players fighting for him. Michigan is getting some money here for their play at home under the lights, but I don't see it. Penn State has the far superior coach in James Franklin and he has an extra week to prepare coming off a loss. Penn State's loss was an ugly one at the time vs. Northwestern by double digits, but since Northwestern has defeated Wisconsin as well. There is no doubt Christina Hackenberg has regressed, but playing Michigan's shaky pass defense should help. Once again it all starts up front and Michigan can't get to the QB while they also can't protect their QB. Penn State is #1 in run defense and they're pretty solid vs. the pass too ranking 35th in sack %. James Franklin as a head coach is a pretty damn good one off byes. With Vanderbilt the last 3 years he was 5-2 SU & ATS, 5-0 ATS the last two years including 3x as an under dog. His two losses were against Alabama on the road and his first bowl game against Cincinnati in his first year as a coach. |
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10-11-14 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3 | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show | |
Miss St +3 2.2* play MIss State won a huge game against A&M last week, but this game is bigger. Auburn played Kansas State on the road and should have lost in my opinion and I think Miss State is just a better version of that. You could argue that Miss State rushing offense and defense has been better this year, but on paper it's about the same so since both teams rely on this and the fact that MIss State's QB Dak Prescott has a QB rating 30 points higher than Nick Marshall I feel comfortable with the home dog. Both teams have the same amount of players returning and Miss State nearly beat Auburn on the road. First of all they basically out played them in their own building with Prescott and the running game rushing for 1.7ypc more than Auburn. Prescott rushed for 133 while Marshall just 22 on 11 carries. Miss State is home now and Auburn is just a bit over hyped in my opinion. |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 39 h 16 m | Show | |
UNC +17 3.3* PLAY / UNC +575 0.5* BONUS I'm not at all impressed with Notre Dame yet they are ranked in the top 10 after defeating a Stanford team that to be honest is just not that good as we all know by now. Notre Dame has looked ugly in their last 2 games and now they face a desperate UNC team that was supposed to be ranked before the season started. I think this is a dangerous game, because this is arguably the best offense that Notre Dame has faced and they are clearly looking ahead to their showdown against Florida State. UNC has QB Marquise Williams who almost ran for over 100 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense and he's been passing well to his WR Davis and converting 76% of his red zone opportunities into TD's. He had 4 TD passes against Clemson and put up 35 points against one of the best front 7's in the nation. I believe Notre Dame's defense which has been touted as a top 10 unit is over rated based on the offenses they have faced. Syracuse ranked 41st in yards per play is the top offense they have faced to date and they are ranked 67th in strength of schedule. I think UNC will stay in this game and have the ball late with a chance to win or take the game to OT. |
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10-11-14 | TCU +8 v. Baylor | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 39 h 11 m | Show | |
TCU +8 3.3* BIG12 GOW[/b] TCU is off a big win against Oklahoma, but they have a veteran group with a very good coach that expected to beat Oklahoma. Now they face a Baylor team that I think is over rated. First of all Baylor had to replace 3 guys on the offensive line form last year and are only returning 12 starters overall. TCU has much more coming back and they proved last year they can beat Baylor. TCU had 3 turnovers and still lost by just 3 points at home as a 2 TD under dog. Baylor is still putting up points, but this year's version is far less explosive. Texas shared the recipe holding Petty to 7-22 for 111 yards and he was only 19-38 last year. TCU's defense will keep them in this game they are top 5 in sack % and opp QB rating and ranked in top 10 in run defense. Ironically their offense is ranked ahead of Baylor ranking 22nd in yards per play. Baylor's defense has also been on par looking great, but I believe they are a notch below TCU from last year's stats and this year's stats. When you look at the offenses they have played too it is no surprise as they have faced 113th, 106th, FCS foe, and Buffalo (38th) in yards per play offense. TCU has proven this year against top offensive talent that their defense is real holding Trevor Knight to 14/35 1TD and 2 INT last week. This is a huge game for both teams for recruiting and I expect a close game throughout with TCU having a chance to win or hold onto the win in the end. |
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10-11-14 | Indiana v. Iowa -3 | 29-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
Iowa -3 3.3* play[/b] This is a revenge game for Iowa who held Indiana to 2.2 ypc on the road last year. Iowa is also off a bye and will play an Indiana team that has looked as bad as they have looked good this year. They won at MIssouri, but lost at a Bowling Green team that is ranked at the bottom of the nation in offense and defense. They are not getting the consistent play from their QB Nate Sudfield who has just a 125 QB rating and relying on their star RB Tevin Coleman too much. Iowa sports a solid rushing defense that can game plan and dominate a game with 2 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional attack and I think that's exactly what they will do. Iowa has already faced a pair of top 50 rushing teams on the road and won and coincidently neither of those teams had a passing game so it should be more of the same on Saturday. I also expect Iowa to get their running game going and to find some balance in the passing game against Indiana's defense that is very young and talented, but playing very inconsistent. At the end of the day we are backing a team off a bye, at home, vs inconsistent team with holes on both sides of the ball and the extra preparation time should benefit and allow them to win this game by a TD. |
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10-11-14 | Middle Tennessee State +24.5 v. Marshall | 24-49 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 24 m | Show | |
MTSU +24.5 2.2* PLAY Marshall is getting a lot of hype for the second year in a row, but they have the 99th ranked strength of schedule and I don't see any reason for them to be this big of favorites when you consider MTU has been extremely competitive and beat Marshall at home last year as a double digit dog. Both of their losses on the road came by less than this margin and agaisnt two very good teams in Memphis and Minnesota. MTSU runs the ball first 58% the time and Austin Grammer leads the conference completing 71% of his throws so the clock should be moving a lot. MTU has the best offense that Marshall has faced so far this year and I expect it to be a battle for 3 quarters at least before Marshall takes the game over and wins by 10 in the 4th. |
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10-10-14 | Washington State +17 v. Stanford | Top | 17-34 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD |