Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-12 | Ball State +7.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that |
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12-20-12 | BYU v. San Diego State +3 | Top | 23-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That |
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12-16-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
BEARS +3 4.8* PLAY
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2.5 | 36-22 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
3.3* PLAY ON THE RAMS -2.5
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12-16-12 | NY Giants +1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
GIANTS +1 5.5* NFL PLAY OF THE DAY
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12-15-12 | Toledo +10.5 v. Utah State | Top | 15-41 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Toledo +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%. Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up. Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage. |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Eagles +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Eagles seem like they are on the right track after two games starting Nick Foles. Andy Reid did a great job taking away any kind of controversy by naming Foles the starter for the rest of the year which bodes well for Foles confidence. The biggest thing in this match up to me is Foles ability to move in the pocket and make accurate passes with the Bengals pass rush coming at him. Bengals are #1 in sack %, but Foles proved last year he can do that. Despite getting sacked 6 times he looked poised and got better as the game went on. The Eagles defense also showed up and held Josh Freeman to 178 yards and 14-34. The Bengals I feel are quite over rated and the public likes them because of the big names like AJ Green and they continue to be backed, but I can not trust this team on the road. They really have not beaten anyone and they are very bad on third downs on both sides of the ball which is a key stat especially for winning on the road. They are 20th in third down defense and 25th in third down offense. Bengals really struggle on the back end despite having the #1 sack % team as they are 15th in QB rating and they have struggled against bad teams on the road against the run allowing 4.5 ypc. The Eagles have proven of late that they can win with the run and the passing game and I expect them to be right in this game. |
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12-10-12 | Houston Texans +6 v. New England Patriots | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Texans +6 4.4* NFL POD
The line has moved like crazy today, but I think there is tremendous value still on the Texans and I will thank the line movements. These two teams are even and both teams have not played the most challenging schedules. I've seen both teams face my team the NY Jets and neither one looked more impressive. The Patriots have gotten very lucky in many games because they are scoring points off turnovers. The Texans just don't turn the ball over and in fact are #3 in turnover margin. I think the Texans will play their best game of the season tonight and they certainly have the ingredients to upset the Patriots. What are those ingredients? Pass rush, and a balanced offensive attack. Let me attack the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are extremely vulnerable against the pass. They're ranked 23rd in sack % and 29th vs. the pass. However, teams that can run the ball like the Texans can have had the most success scoring points because the Patriots have trouble stopping them in the red zone. The Bills scored 31, 28 and have a great running game, the Seahawks scored 24, and the Ravens scored 31. Texans arguably have the best offense that the Patriots have faced all year long. The Broncos were really not clicking just yet when they visited the Pats in week 5. Next, the pass rush. It's not ironic that the Patriots have struggled vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in pass rush, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and even Denver. It's also no coincidence that New England is 22nd in pass play %. I really don't think this team trusts its pass protection and they've done so well running the ball they are smart enough to know they don't need to air it out 40+ times a game. Well the Texans are good at stopping the run and are ranked 5th in sack % led by J.J. Watt who could single handily ruin Tom Brady's night. Texans are also #1 in third down defense (ironically Arizona and Miami are in the top 5). New England won by just 7 at Miami ( a team that lacks an offense like the Texans) and lost at home to Arizona (a team which we have seen is the worst in the league). The Patriots are 29th in third down defense and worse at home. Red Zone is another key aspect in this game. Who can bend and not break and who can punch it in? Well it's obvious both teams can punch it in they are both averaging 69% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games and are both in the top 5. Houston however has been far more dominant on the defensive end, 4th overall and they only allow 36% in the red zone while the Patriots are 23rd and allow 68% at home. I really look for this game to be close throughout and I give the Texans despite some injuries to have a real shot at winning the game. Brady will struggle at times especially without Gronkowski still. |
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12-09-12 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. NY Giants | Top | 27-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Saints +5 5.5* NFL POD; Saints +195 1* bonus
Not only are the Saints still alive, but they are drawing motivation from the Giants playoff run a year ago. This Saints team absolutely believes they are still alive in the playoff hunt and they've had 4 extra days to prepare for this game. It's just a tough spot for the Giants here today who are starting to trend downward. Drew Brees in his last 3 games vs. the Giants 60% pass completions 864 yards 9 TD and 0 INT's. The Saints have played well vs. the Giants and I don't see any signs of that changing because the Giants have not shown they can be a dominant defense or team in home games. They have played worse at home on defense than on the road. They're 27th in run defense overall allowing 4.6 ypc but at home they allow 5.0 yards per carry. For the Saints that's a great sign because they have relied on their deep stable of running backs far more than in years past. Brees on the other hand will go up against a Giants defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at home allowing a 96.4 and 106 in their last 3 games combined. The Saints should have their way with the Giants in the red zone specifically because they can run and pass efficiently. The Saints have the #1 red zone offense at 70% TD's, the Giants are 22nd in the red zone 48.98% in the red zone. The Saints defense is also tough in the red zone and that's how they have escaped for wins in the past. That mentality will help them cover this odd spread as I don't see them losing by more than 4 if they lose at all. Either way Brees will bounce back from a couple of bad games to lead this team. The extra couple days allowed them to find things they can exploit against the Giants. Saints are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss while the Giants are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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12-09-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Washington Redskins -1 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Redskins -2.5 (3.3* EB play)
I hadn't been sold on the Redskins and RG III and I still might not be until he plays a top defense again. Since their bye week when they instituted more of the pistol offense they have clicked particularly on third downs where they are converting 48.39% of them over the last three. They are also clicking because Griffin has completed 73% of his passes for 9 TD and 1 INT for a 140 QB rating over the last three games. The Ravens are not a top defense. Despite being #1 in the red zone for TD%, this defense is significantly over rated. They just gave up 276 yards on 69% completions to Charlie Batch in a losing effort. The Ravens have also showed at times that they can't stop the run and now they are facing an offense that can do both. I'm not calling for a blow out here as the Ravens defense has been good at times, but their offense has yet to pick up the slack and Joe Flaco has really struggled on the road. I see no signs of that changing here today. Baltimore has scored just 16% TD's in their last 3 games in the red zone. |
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12-09-12 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Vikings +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* play
The Bears defense is all banged up and trending downward since they have not been able to come up with 3 turnovers per game. Their run defense is over rated and allowing 5.1 yards per carry over their last three games. The Vikings are fighting for their playoff lifes today and they feature the best RB in the game with Adrien Peterson who rushed for 108 yards in a losing effort vs. the Bears just 2 games ago. The Vikings turned the ball over 3 times in that game and have to protect the football here today at home and I believe they will. The Vikings have the ingredients you need to pull off an upset here. They can stop the run and they can create a pass rush with 4 guys. The Vikings have the best combination of that at home and they should get to Jay Cutler whose offensive line is just not very good ranked 30th in sacked %. The Vikings are 3-0 at home vs. teams that are in the bottom 5 at protecting their QB's as they beat the 49ers, Jaguars and Cardinals. Now the Bears have really struggled facing teams that can stop both the pass via the rush and the running game. The closest team is the 49ers, but the Texans, Packers and even the Seahawks have similar type defenses. The Bears scored just 10 points per game in those 4 losses. |
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12-08-12 | Navy v. Army +7 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Army +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD; Army +240 1* play
Even the Army coach admits that this game means more than going to a bowl game. So while I don't think Navy is looking ahead to their bowl game I do believe they are not as focused as Army. Up for grabs is the commander in chief trophy which goes to the service academy that wins the round robin between Army/Navy/Air Force. Both teams already beat Air Force so this game has more than sentimental value. This game is bigger for Army who has lost 10 straight times to Navy, but has been much closer in recent years because of Trent Steelman who is playing in his last game as the Army QB. He'll go up against Navy's freshmen QB. Army also has a veteran leader in Nate Combs playing in his last game as the leader of the defense. Although it's a unit that just got shredded in their last game by Temple's Montel Harris one has to believe this group was already preparing for Navy knowing they weren't going bowling. I think that only gives us more value in this point spread. There were many games Army could have won that would have put them in the bowl picture if you look through the season. Really if they won some of those games this could have been more like a 3 point spread in my opinion so I think we are getting a few points here and great value. Let's take a look at some of the games. Army played well at home all season with the exception of their last game. They even nearly beat BCS buster Northern Illinois, but fell 40-41. There was a loss to Kent State sprinkled in but they beat Boston College, and Air Force. This game is pretty simple in terms of who is going to win or whether or not it's going to be a close game. 3rd down conversions and turnovers. Army has had issues turning the ball over all year which has cost them big time, but at home they are +0.7 turnover margin per game while Navy is -0.5 on the road. Navy also is 103rd in forcing turnovers and 92nd in fumble recovery %. Army not used to playing defenses that don't force turnovers. 3rd down conversion percentages have been pretty equal only Army is better offensively and defensively. Defensively Navy is 117th and allowing over 50% on the road while Army is 101st, but have allowed just 41% over their last 3. Offensively Navy is 59th while Army is 25th and converting 50% over their last 3. I think the experience of Army's QB Steelman and the preparation of Army's experience and will to win this game and have something to celebrate will be the difference. |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +11 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Raiders +10.5 4.4* NFL POD These teams know each other well since they play 2 times a year, and being double digit favorites on the road is just too much for even the Broncos who will be traveling on a short week. The Raiders have been tough in games at home this season or at least their offense has been more capable and getting McFadden back this week will definitely help make them more balanced against the Broncos. The Broncos on the other hand have the Ravens next week which is a more crucial game to their season success despite this being a division game. Broncos beat the Ravens next week and they could be on their way to a bye in the playoffs. Now Peyton Manning led teams are not usually victims of looking ahead, but the Raiders want to prove that they are not as bad as their record indicates. I also don't think the Broncos are as good as this line. They've played a lot of bad teams lately and have been covering the spread 6 out of their last 9 games becoming a big public backed team. Meanwhile the Raiders are a team that have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5, but remain a capable team to beat anyone at home. I think we are getting tons of value in this spot.
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12-03-12 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
4.4** top play
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12-02-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
Steelers +9.5 3.3* bonus
The Steelers had 8 turnovers last week and they still nearly won the game. I think people are over reacting especially on the line here. No Big Ben is unfortunate but look for Charlie Batch to rebound and run a very conservative game plan with lots of running. Baltimore defense is enjoying a resurgence right now but I can't help but forget how they looked at times this year and they are 9th in run defense allowing 4.0 ypc which is nothing special. The Steelers still possess the #1 defense and these two teams know each other extremely well it would be hard to see a blow out here. The last 10 match ups have all been decided by a TD or less with the exception of 2 games one which was a win by the Steelers by 9 and another by 28. The under dog is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Pitt was actually +109 total yards in their match up just a few weeks ago at home when they lost by 3 points with Byron Leftwhich as the QB. I don't see Batch as that much of a downgrade to Lefwhich and I expect Johnathan Dwyer tto have a huge game he rushed for 55 yards on just 12 carries last time. They need to hand the ball off to him 20+ times to win this game. |
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12-02-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. San Diego Chargers +2.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD
I get it the Bengals are surging right now winners of 3 straight and the Chargers are losers of 6 of 7, so it's no wonder that they are home dogs on Sunday to the Bengals, but this is a desperate Chargers team right now. The Bengals really have not played well in San Diego. It's a long trip and they have lost 5 of 6 since 1992. This is clearly their most challenging road game on the season as their road schedule has been pretty easy. On the other side the Chargers have had a brutal schedule with no easy wins. They already played the Broncos twice, Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, and on the road against an under rated Tampa team. I think they finally get a game in their own building with against a team playing with too much confidence. Andy Dalton has tossed 9 TD and 0 INT's in his last three games, but a closer look at those games and he faced some bad defenses. I'm not just talking about against the pass which was 32nd, 30th, and 13th, but also against the run meaning Benjarvis Green-Ellis has helped with balanced as they have faced run defenses ranked 24th, 28th, and 22nd. Now on the road against the Chargers will be a different challenge. Although the Chargers are ranked 22nd against the pass they have faced some really good QB's already, and their run defense is ranked 6th against the run. That means the Chargers can at least take one aspect of the Bengals offense away making them one dimensional. The Bengals rushing offense is not that good to begin with so I look for the Chargers to really concentrate on stopping the pass. On the other side of the ball Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been solid at times, but the biggest issue has been the turnovers. Well the Bengals defense is 29th in takeaways on the road and have allowed a 117 QB rating over the last three games alone. They also struggle against the run allowing 4.9 ypc in their last 3 and 4.6 ypc on the road this year. They're ranked 23rd against the run and that's good news for the Chargers who should have success and balance offensively. Chargers will have more success on third downs where they are ranked 13th overall and convert 41.7% at home while the Bengals are 27th and are only converting 28.5% on the road. When they face defense that can shut down their run they find it very difficult to convert because they go into a lot of 3rd and longs. |
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12-02-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 v. Buffalo Bills | 18-34 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
Jaguars +6.5 4.4* NFL Early Bird Play
I really like the Jags here on the road against the Bills. Since Chad Henne took over he has guided them to competitive games with his 6 TD and 1 INT since taking over for Gabbert. Over the last 2 games the Jaguars have scored an average 30.5 points and 389 yards and there is no signs of that stopping vs. the Bills defense. The defense played well for the Bills in the last two games, but I expect them to return to their normal ways on Sunday. Bills have allowed 5.7 ypc at home this season and 6.0 overall while the Jaguars have struggled to run on the year, but when they have faced poor run defense it seems to be when they play their best including games against the Colts on the road, (a win) and the Colts are ranked 30th vs. the run, and against the 28th ranked Raiders they lost by 3 in OT. Overall the Jaguars have played very well on the road and even have stopped the run allowing 3.7 ypc this season on the road which is huge key if they want to stop the Bills rushing game. While I think the Bills and CJ Spiller will have success running the ball I think they'll struggle in the red zone. IN their last 25 drives they have just 9 TD's and are ranked 25th overall in TD% while the Jaguars red zone defense is only allowing 47% TD's in the red zone which is good for 10th in the league. That will be huge for the Jaguars who blitz less than anyone else in the league. It just so happens Fitzpatrick has been more effective vs. the blitz so I don't see him having a huge game. Don't sleep on Jason Babin who gave the Jaguars pass rush a boost when they picked him up off waivers this week. He will be critical to the Jaguars game plan and could create some poor decisions by Fitzpatrick. The Bills are ranked 27th in giveaways this year while the Jaguars are taking the ball away 3.2 times per game over their last 3 game which ranks 4th. |
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12-01-12 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3 | Top | 31-70 | Win | 103 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
Wisconsin +3.5 -115 5.5* POD Wisconsin +1.5 2.2* 1Half
It appears LB Chris Borland will return which is a huge boost, as Boorland commented that he will play in this game. Even without them the defense did a great job vs. Ohio State and Penn State allwoing 3.6 and 3.5 ypc in two OT losses, but none of that matters as they go up against Nebraska with revenge in the Big Ten Championship. IN the first match up Wisconsin led 20-3 at half time before getting dominated in the second half and losing on the road to Nebraska. The difference was home field advantage to be honest and the fact that Nebraska ran the ball better and stopped the run better. Wisconsin is a totally different team now Montee Ball's season completely turned around and Nebraska who held Wisconsin to 1.4 ypc in that game are allowing 5.5 ypc on the road this year. Wisconsin also should have a healthy Abredaries who torched Nebraska for 142 yards and a TD. Nebraska boasts the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are also 18th in opponent pass play % as opponents only average 42% passing percentage. When teams do throw On Nebraska they can have success in the play action which is what Wisconsin does well. Wisconsin though is running the ball a ton 70% of the time in their last 3 games and they are doing it well. That's really what this game comes down to and on a neutral field I give Wisconsin the edge. IN conference play they averaged 5.14 ypc to Nebraska's 4.70 and they averaged 5.69 over their last 3 games against good opponents. Their defense allowed 3.68 ypc while Nebraska allowed 4.16 ypc and we already mentioned their struggles to stop the run on the road. Montee Ball also has 7 TD's in 2 games vs. Nebraska. Wisconsin will send Nebraska a different look with their third starting QB in 5th year senior Curt Phillips who has played well. Wisconsin is catching a ton of crap for backing into this game losing to both Ohio State and Penn State the two teams ahead of them in the division but are ineligible and I think they come out and dominate this game. They did the same thing last year after losing to Michigan State in the regular season only to get revenge in the Championship game. Nebraska really struggled in pre snap motions in the first match up and I expect them to lose the turnover battle in this game they are -8 on the year while Wisconsin is +5 in conference play. It won't help that Nebraska is without two senior linemen starters one on offense and one on defense for this game. They have also come from behind in 5 of their |
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12-01-12 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +14 | 21-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +14.5 -120 2.5* play
Both Florida State are off tough games they lost to their in state rivals and will have a hang over effect. A ton of people are on Georgia Tech saying they don't belong here after Miami took themselves out of picture, but I think they'll use that for motivation. I like how this team played down the stretch with 3 straight wins vs. quality teams in Duke, North Carolina and Maryland. This team also led in the 4th quarter against Clemson earlier this year. FSU has had its own issues at times this year and they just lost their defensive coordinator who will coach this game but got the Kentucky job. I"m sure he is distracted and anxious to take over the program so how can he prepare for the triple option? Sure Florida State's run defense has been dominant 2.65 on the year, but they just got done allowing 5.19 ypc to Florida and they are 50th in ypc rushing offense, Georgia Tech is in the top 10 and had a quality game against Georgia who has a similar front 7. Florida State will also miss one of their better defensive players in Carradine. Their run defense has also gone up against an average 90th rushing offense and that's not counting the two FCS foes they scheduled earlier in the year. Against the three teams ranked in the top 63 FSU won by 13, 13, and 12 and I expect a similar tight game. After all Georgia Tech is actually better in conference play on third down offense and red zone TD%. They are also +7 in turnover margin to Florida State's -6. |
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12-01-12 | Alabama -7.5 v. Georgia | 32-28 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 27 m | Show | |
Alabama -7 -120 4.5* buy 1/2
The game everyone is waiting for. Everyone is now in love with Georgia based on how they played down the stretch. They have a ton of NFL talent on their team and they do for the most part deserve the hype. However, I'm looking pas that and I realize Georgia was lucky to beat Florida (which I will get o in a second) and they really had an easy schedule to get here. They didn't have to play LSU or Texas A&M and when push came to shove this team that's carried by Aaron Murray has not made plays in games against dominant defenses (South Carolina, and Florida). Both South Carolina and Florida possess top 11 run defense and Alabama is #1. Georgia was shut down in those two games scoring just 24 points. Aaron Murray was the guy that failed, 23-55, 259 yards 1 TD and 4 INT's combined. This is nothing new as he also choked in the SEC Championship last year 16-40, 163 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT's after going to that game under similar circumstances of not playing some of the best SEC teams in the regular season. Most of Murrays stats have come against bad passing defenses and at home. Although this is in the Georgia Dome I give Alabama the advantage. There is a ton of media that are hyping up Georgia and telling them how good they are meanwhile Alabama thinks everyone is against them and they seem to have more focus. Even S Bacarri Rambo of Georgia said, "I feel like we're more talented." Maybe you have more NFL talent, but Alabama is a better overall team, better coached and it is not even close in my opinion. First of all this great Georgia defense is about ot face the most balanced offense they've faced all year. Alabama is averaging 5.35 ypc in conference play and with the emergence of Amari Cooper Georgia has to honor the pass. Georgia has also been beat through the air and on the ground at times this year. Despite only allowing 3.34 ypc in conference play it's been mostly against the weaker teams. They just got done allowing 608 yards in their last 2 games combined to Georgia Southern, FCS team and Georgia Tech. Although those are option teams it gives you an idea that their are holes in this defense and that's something Nick Saban and his staff are great at exploiting. In fact Georgia gave up 4.79 to Kentucky on the ground who are ranked 85th, 4.51 ypc to South Carolina ranked 101st, and 4.93 to Tennessee who are ranked 37th. Look for Georgia to get aggressive at some point on defense in this game with the blitz and look for A.J. McCarron to burn them. He's got just 2 interceptions on the year and will quietly once again out play Aaron Murray. IF you are still not convinced let me lay down some more conference stats. Alabama was better in third down offense 48.5% to 42%, better in the red zone getting their 7 more times and converting on 82% of those opportunities for TD's on the road/neutral games vs. Georgia who converted 65% into TD's in a weaker schedule. Both teams are good in turnover margin but Alabama is better as they are also in tackles for loss differential, sack differential, penalties per game. Lastly let me finish by saying how they were lucky against Florida since this is the reason they are here. Florida turned the ball over 6 times in that game including a fumble that would have pulled them within one as they fumbled into the end zone at the end of the game. Florida who has a similar defense to Alabama held them to 1-10 on third down while they were 7-16 and this was all in Georgia's own building. Alabama is far more capable offensively and their defense is probably about the same. Alabama also won't be turning the ball over 6 times you can bet on that. |
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12-01-12 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. Florida Atlantic +9 | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 26 m | Show | |
Fl Atlantic +9 4.4* play; FL Atl +290 1* bonus
The last two match ups have been decided by a total of 4 points, despite spreads of +7 and +11.5 between FAU and LA Lafayette. Lafayette is already heading to the New Orleans Bowl after their win last week and will face either Rice or East Carolina. Florida Atlantic meanwhile is off a bye week, and have plenty to play for since over achieving and playing their best football of the season. They are a totally different team than they were in the beginning of the year and are 2-2 in their last 4 games and could easily be 3-0 in conference play at home. The Owls have thrown the ball 58% of the time over their last 3 games and that's good news as they'll go up against the Rajin Cajuns 113th pass defense, this is the worst pass defense they've faced all year as the Cajuns allow a 154 QB rating in their road games. FAU faced FIU 98TH, and Troy 93rd and were in both of those games as they beat Troy, but lost by 10 to FIU because of a kick off return. QB Graham Wilbert has 13 TD to just 3 interceptions in conference play while completing 64.5% of his passes out of the spread offense. FAU's struggles have been running the ball and defending the run although their run defense has stepped up of late and at home where they allow just 3.7 ypc. The Cajuns also allow 4.45 ypc on the road and are giving up 48% conversions on third downs on the road where I think FAU can have more success than Lafayette. They are better offensively and defensively on third downs in conference play. If they can avoid negative plays and turnovers and score TD's in the red zone they should be able to win this game. Lafayette is riding high with confidence after putting up 52 points and getting a bowl invitation and will likely come out flat on the road with nothing to play for. I see FAU capitalizing and having a good shot at winning the game. |
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12-01-12 | Oklahoma v. TCU +6 | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 26 m | Show | |
TCU +6 2.2* EB Play
TCU continues to be the #1 defense in the Big 12, and now they'll have another stiff test going up against Oklahoma who just came off a huge win. TCU has a couple extra days to rest and prepare which is good for a team that starts more true freshman than any other team in the country. Overall they are one of the better coached teams and that has paid huge dividends. Now they have gone 0-3 at home in league play and that's 100% due to the fact that they have lost 10 turnovers in those three games to Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Iowa State. However Oklahoma is -3 in turnover margin on the year and is ranked 100th in the nation in forcing turnovers with just 14 on the year. TCU has been here before against a team that likes to throw the ball all over the field. Oklahoma is 10th in the nation in passing play % at 58%. TCU has hung tough against West Virginia with a win on the road, Texas Tech, a loss by just 3 at home and SMU, a win all teams are ranked in the top 20 in passing play %. They have benefited from leading the league in forcing turnovers with 30 and have a great opportunity to be + in turnover margin on Saturday if they play smart on offense and continue to be aggressive. You may be wondering what I mean by be smart, well last week they kept it conservative and kept running at Texas. Well they can do that again at home this week and have more success as Oklahoma is 88th in rushing yards allowed and 105th allowing 5.0 ypc on the season, 6.6 per carry per game over their last 3 games alone. To put things in perspective TCU only allows 2.7 ypc. Oklahoma's offense is getting too much credit after scoring 42, 50, 51 vs. the Big 12's 3 worst defenses. While Oklahoma is looking to play for a share of the Big 12 crown with a win and a Kansas State loss TCU will look to spoil it and I believe they will. They are just better in a lot of stats that matter including third down defense, red zone defense, tackles for loss, penalties, and special teams defense. |
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11-30-12 | UCLA Bruins +9 v. Stanford | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
UCLA +8.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) UCLA +270 1* bonus
I had UCLA on a strong lean last week, but I really couldn't help but hold off knowing that this team already knew they were heading to the Pac 12 Championship no matter what. It was only a matter of who they felt like facing more. Oregon or Stanford? One had to wonder if they led up a bit in this game or came out flat and after watching the game tonight, since it was only on the PAC 12 channel on Saturday I am convinced that UCLA did hold back as they played one of their worst if not their worst most sloppy game of the year. One word describes it all in what decided the game, "penalties." UCLA had 12 penalties for 135 yards, and several were back breakers. It actually cost them probably double the 135 yards because of plays it took away and also forced them into many third and longs. UCLA converted plenty of third downs early and it was obvious that they could give Stanford issues with RB Johnathan Franklin and their dynamic TE Joseph Fauria who could not be stopped. Still it was penalty after penalty and some bad throws by QB Hundley as well as some key drops. It was clear that UCLA did not come ready to play and were still hung over from defeating USC at home the week before. Looking at the stat line you would think Stanford did what they wanted, but UCLA was solid on third down and with the exception of two big runs by Stefan Taylor they held the run in check. They even had several tackles for loss on first downs, but penalties took over the game and probably gave Stanford at least 10 points or took away 7 points from their own. By the end of the game it was obvious that Stanford was the more desperate team as they seemed to empty the playbook or at least show all of their goods. I saw the wild cat, I saw their jumbo package, I saw them turn to passing on first down because the run was not working. Stanford's offense is not that creative to begin with and I don't anticipate them changing at home. They've held a steady game plan all year. Run the ball 56% of the time, home or away and even with the success of Kevin Hogan they have actually run the ball more 60% of the time over the last three games and that falls into the strength of the UCLA Bruins who are among the best in the conference at stopping the run and even on the road they held opponents to 3.49 ypc which was better than their home stat. Their rushing offense on the flip side was also better on the road this year and watching the game film you could see Johnathan Franklin was just one play away from breaking it. He's looked the best against Stanford's run defense that has been dominant and I would argue he's the best RB in America. The fact that they have an accurate QB to go along with that is a dangerous recipe. Hundley just seemed to have an off game last week and I think this entire team is going to bounce back and play with discipline because it is the PAC 12 Championship. They were here last year and didn't deserve it (USC Suspension) and got blown out by Oregon and this year they'd like to make a statement especially with everyone down on them again. I'll add this last bit of info. Stanford has not been dominant really in any game this year against a worthy opponent. Even at home their games have all been decided by a TD or less. 4, 7, 6, 7, and 3 points respectfully and they should have lost to Oregon State. They did beat Duke by 37 points, and dominated California 21-3, and Colorado 48-0 on the road, but those are bad teams. UCLA is a very good team with a solid defense and a balanced offense that can move the ball so long as they are disciplined. |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Falcons -3 -120 buy 1/2 3.6* play; Falcons +3.5/U63 -130 1.3* Teaser
New Orleans may be desperate for a win but they are coming off a short week having to travel after playing a hard hitting 49ers team. If this is not the right time for the Falcons to finally get the best of the Saints I don't know if there ever will be. What I really expect is for the Falcons to get back to running the ball, but the emergence of Jacquiz Rodgers will be the difference in this game. The Saints are last in the league in ypc run defense and I see the Falcons getting back to that despite having a ton of success passing on the Saints last time. The difference in the game earlier in the season in New Orleans was the red zone and 4th downs. The Falcons were 0-2 on 4th downs, and they were just 3-6 in the red zone. Those two things will have to change at home facing the Saints defense that is far worse on the road allowing 70.83% TD's in the red zone. Atlanta got to the red zone 3 more times than the Saints and they'll need to capitlize on that and I believe they can at home. Meanwhile the Falcons have been playing some pretty good pass defense, for one they are ranked among the leagues best in third down defense at home allowing opponents only 29% conversions and they are also far more capable ins topping passing attacks. They're 10th in sack % to the Saints 24th, and 10th in opponent passer rating to the Saints 29th ranking. The Saints are allowing a 113.1 QB rating in road games this year which is ranked 32nd. The defense is improving but they still are not getting any sort of a pass rush just 3.31% in their last 3 games and 3.35 % on the road. No pass rush, no run defense and an inability on the road to stop red zone TD's and the Falcons should control the clock convert third downs where they are ranked 2nd in the league and score TD's. I think the game total is way too high and this game should stay under despite two elite offense ranked in the top 10 in passing play %. Look for the Falcons to run more in this game. |
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11-29-12 | Louisville v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
Rutgers -2.5 -115 (buy 1/2) 4.6** NCAAF POD
Rutgers has not beaten Louisville in quite some time and this is the perfect spot for them to seek their revenge. Rutgers is loaded with experienced players and leadership on both sides of the ball while Louisville still remains a young team that is struggling to the finish line. A lot of these players on Louisville are playing their 12th game and it's a lot in college football. They are banged up at RB losing their leading rusher Senorise Perry, and QB as Terry Bridgewater hurt his leg and broke his non-throwing arm. Bridgewater will play, but he'll be forced into the shutgun for the entire game. That's a huge advantage for Rutgers as Louisville shrinks it's playbook. Louisville is struggling big time to run the ball just 75 yards in their last 2 games combined and it's no coincidence that it was their first two losses of the season. Well running against Rutgers with injuries is going to be even more impossible. Rutgers is 13th in ypc run defense in the nation and ranks higher than Uconn who just dominated this group up front. I see DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene leading the way to plugging the running game. Rutgers defense on the back end is also very good they have more interceptions than TD allowed. Louisville has been very good at limiting turnovers, but they have not faced many teams that can stop the run and the pass and this is clearly the best defense they faced all year. Louisville's road schedule was extremely weak playing two of the worst teams in college football and struggling against winless Southern Miss, and FIU and then they were dominated by Syracuse, a team Rutgers is better than. Meanwhile Rutgers only lost was to Kent State (before their look ahead loss to Pitt (off a bye) last week), a team that will be going to a BCS game possibly if they can win the MAC, a conference that's better than the Big East in my opinion. The line is low because Rutgers offense has struggled, and Gary Nova has 10 interceptions over his last 4 games, but Louisville is 70th in takeaways, and 124th on the road. That's probably because they are unable to create 3rd and long situations and get off the field on third down as well as create any sort of pressure. To put things in perspective, Louisville is -8 in tackles for loss (allowing more), and -3 in sacks and Rutgers is +18 in tackles for loss and +10 in sacks. Louisville also allowed more than 50% conversions to 3 of their 4 road opponents and 52% overall. Their road opponents were ranked 76th, 82nd, and 72nd in third downs and Syracuse converted 73% and was ranked 11th. This may be one of the few games in a while Rutgers can convert on third down which should be a major advantage. Don't sleep on Rutgers running game as Louisville's run defense is quite vulnerable allowing 4.62 ypc in conference play and 4.30 ypc on the road. Rutgers relies on the run 57% of the time over their last 3 games alone and even though Jawan Jamison is a little banged up SAvon Huggins has shown he can carry the load (179 yards at Cincinatti - only allows 3.86 ypc in conference play) - Huggins did that on the road and now he's home against a Louisville run defense that's worst. Louisville will have to be careful about stacking the box, because Rutgers has a trio of WR that if left alone create major mismatches. Brandon Coleman is 6-6, Mark Harrison is 6-3, and Tim Wright is 6-4. Apart from those advantages Rutgers also has the advantage in the red zone as they have converted 69% of their attempts into TD's at home while Louisville is allowing 78.5% on the road. Rutgers defense also has been great in the red zone allowing just 40% conversions and 37.5% in conference play. Louisville will be really predictable when they get down there out of the shotgun and I anticipate some interceptions from Bridgewater in this game that will allow Rutgers to cover this spread. Rutgers is 4-1 at home and their wins have come by an average of nearly 18 points. |
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11-25-12 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Giants -2.5 4.4* NFL POD The Giants are desperate for a positive vibe and now they face the Packers at home off a bye. The media, and the general public are now all down on the Giants who just a few weeks ago everyone was saying was a lock to return to the Super Bowl when they defeated the 49ers on the road. This team constantly plays to the competition. They seem to always come up with their big games against the really good teams in the league. The Giants also with extra time to prepare are 6-0 in their last 6 games off a bye week which includes two Super Bowl victories. The Packers offensive line is still among one of the worst and I think this is the game we see the return of the Giants dominant pass rush. The Packers are a one dimensional team that should have issues on the road on Sunday night protecting their QB. Packers are 29th and allow Rodgers to get sacked 10.88% of the time on the road while the Giants are 2nd only sacked 3.43% of the time.
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11-25-12 | San Francisco 49ers -1 v. New Orleans Saints | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
49ERS -1 (3.3* play)
49ers are the leagues best at running the ball and that with defense are the ingredients to winning on the road and winning against the Saints. Nobody does those two things better than the 49ers these days and I expect them to win this game for a few reasons. Not only is New Orleans allowing 5.0 ypc at home this year they are allowing nearly 200 yards more per game than the 49ers defense and have lost the yards battle in 6 straight games. The Saints have been winning games by being good in the red zone both on offense and defense, but the 49ers are a team that can be better than their opponents at that game. They are scoring 67% TD's on the road which is good for 6th, and their defense is ranked high as well. It all starts with getting off the field on third down something the 49ers are good at ranked 3rd in the NFL. Saints are 0-3 this year vs. teams that are ranked inside the top 10 in third down defense, that includes the hopeless Chiefs. The Saints are also 1-4 vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in red zone defense. The 49ers have the best combination of third down defense, red zone defense and rushing offense that the Saints have faced. A lot of people talk about the revenge factor as the 49ers bounced the Saints out of the playoffs last year, but I think it's a bit over rated these days. Look at what Giants did to the 49ers on the road when the 49ers supposedly had a motivation edge because they wanted revenge from the Championship game. 49ers should be motivated to bounce the Saints out of the playoff race as I doubt they want to see them again in January. |
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11-25-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns +2.5 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Browns +3 buy 1/2 -120 3.5* play
The Browns are not a 2-8 team and they arguably have a top 5 pass defense although the stats do not indicate that. They were the leagues best pass defense last year and over their last 4 games they have allowed less than 200 yards passing and that included shutting down Tony Romo last week without Joe Haden who will be returning this week. The Steelers have just 1 offensive TD since losing Big Ben, and with 37 year old Charlie Batch takes over after Leftwhich was injured a week ago. I don't see how the Steelers can move the ball through the air in this one and that means the Steelers will rely solely on their defense and running game. That running game is not that good, they are only 21st in the league in ypc on the year and the Browns have stuffed the run allowing 4.0 ypc at home and 3.4 ypc over their last three games. Browns have excellent corners and will be able to concentrate on the running game and force the Steelers in third and long situations. The Browns are 12th in the league in third down defense and have allowed just 36% conversions on the season. The Steelers have struggled to convert third downs without Big Ben in there to extend plays where he was the leagues best. The second thing the Steelers rely on is also over rated despite being #1 in the league in total defense this team is 31st in takeaways, which is something they will need today, but I don't think will get. The Browns are 4th in takeaways when they play at home averaging 2.2 per game. The Steelers defense is also allowing 46.67% conversions on third downs and are 14th in red zone TD%, and 23rd allowing 62.5% TD's in the red zone in road games. I look for the Browns to steal this division game at home. This team could easily be 4-6 or better and are still not getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers. Steelers are 5-16-1 ATS int heir last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Browns are 9-2-1 ATS following a SU loss. |
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11-24-12 | UNLV v. Hawaii +3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
[b]Hawaii +3 2.2* play[/b]
UNLV has lost 21 consecutive road games and now they are road favorites? I don't think so. This team has been awful on the road and their defense is just what the doctor ordered for Hawaii's offense. I think the travel to Hawaii after the holidays will be the real challenge for UNLV this week and it won't end well against Hawaii. Hawaii also wants revenge form last years loss and I think they'll get it against a defense that is the worst defense they have faced all year. UNLV is allowing 53% third down conversions on the road and they have also allowed 20 more red zone attempts than Hawaii's defense. Their offense has only gotten into the red zone 9 times in 5 road games while Hawaii at home has averaged 4 red zone attempts per game. If Hawaii can avoid the turnovers which they have been better at when they've been home and of late then they should win. UNLV is 77th in takeaways and has just 2 in their last 3 games combined. |
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11-24-12 | Notre Dame v. USC +5.5 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
USC +5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); USC +190 2* bonus
This is bigger than any bowl game that USC will get and they'll face the #1 team in the country on their home field 2 days after Thanksgiving Day. Notre Dame has to travel across the country and for once they won't have a scheduling spot in their favor. This will be just Notre Dame's 4th road game and while they got by Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Boston College this will be a different challenge. USC, has the right combination of things working for them in this match up, and I'm not concerned with Matt Barkley being out, Max Whittek is said to have the better arm, and he's had an entire week to practice and he's got plenty of confidence. Oh he's also got the best receivers in the country in Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. What I mean by the right ingredients is USC has the tools that have given Notre Dame issues in all aspects. Notre Dame has not faced any good passing teams this year with the exception of Oklahoma who are ranked 8th and Landry Jones completed nearly 70% of his passes and 356 yards. Notre Dame's offense which is one dimensional has also struggled vs. good defensive lines who can establish a pass rush and stop the run. Check, USC is ranked 17th in sack % with a 10.42% rank and they have been so good at stopping the run not even their impressive 3.6 ypc defense in home games tells the true story as they gave up 7 yards per carry to Oregon, but every other opponent could not average more than 3 yards. Notre Dame is not Oregon offensively, and they struggled against Stanford, and BYU two other teams that can get to the QB. Everett Gholston has had a lot of poise this year but I'm afraid that's about to end, he's only completing 59% of his throws on the season. Notre Dame only throws 39% of the time on the road, but as I mentioned USC can stop the run and at some point you can only beat USC if you throw the ball and keep up with them, because Notre Dame's secondary is extremely vulnerable and who is better to take advantage than Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. I think the Matt Barkley injury is a bit over rated and being home is a huge advantage in this match up. Look for Lee to have a field day on the Irish secondary. USC is just as strong in red zone defense as the Irish are, but the difference is USC has the ability for big plays that won't require scoring inside the 20. As good as Notre Dames defense has been they have only allowed 35% conversions on third down which is not that impressive for a top 5 defense. USC actually has arguably the most balanced attack that Notre Dame has seen all year and unfortunately for Notre Dame I think USC will make this the game of their year that was supposed to be completely different. |
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11-24-12 | Vanderbilt v. Wake Forest +11.5 | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +11.5 3.3*; Wake Forest +360 1* play
Wake Forest is fighting for bowl eligibility while Vanderbilt is off a huge win to their in state rival who they hadn't beaten since 1982. They are due for a huge let down in this spot and its not like Wake Forest can't pull it off. Wake Forest has tons of talent on defense inlcuding Nikita Whitlock, and their solid LB core who are active in space. They also lead the ACC in TO margin. It's not like Vanderbilt is any offensive juggernaut and Wake Forest will stop their rushing attack. They have been great at home allowing less than 3.6 ypc on the ground and have faced better running games than Vanderbilt's. Clemson, North Carolina come to mind and both could not run for more than 4 yards per carry. Vanderbilt is actually only 101st in ypc and 3.2 ypc on the road which is shocking for a team that relies so heavily on it. Really Vanderbilt just beat 5 bad teams and none but Miss could stop the run (ranked 31st) and Miss really had Vanderbilt beat all game. Don't be shocked if Wake Forest wins this game to save their bowl chances. It's a veteran led team with a lot of upper classmen. Wake Forest is 27th in pass play % and Miss showed that you can pass on Vanderbilt as they racked up 406 yards, time for Tanner Price to show his potential. |
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11-24-12 | Oregon v. Oregon State +10 | 48-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
Oregon State +10 2.2* play
Oregon is off the loss to Stanford, a team Oregon State really had beat on the road. Oregon State posses a similar defense to a Stanford squad that stopped Oregon in their own building. Oregon State has shown they have more offensive explosiveness than Stanford with Sean Mannion throwing the ball to Markus Wheaton and Brandon Cooks. Oregon State's defense also has the players that can seal the edges against Oregon's running game. DE Schott Crichton and Jordan Poyer in the secondary are two of the best in the PAC 12. Oregon State also has started to run the ball better with Storm Woods as they are averging 40 yards more per game over their last 3 games than their season average and they faced the likes of Arizona State, Stanford, and Cal. Look for Oregon State to keep this game in distance all day as this is a huge rivalry game and Oregon State finally has the athletic talent to give Oregon fits. They are one of the best teams on third down and that's where Stanford had so much success last week holding them to 4-17 on third downs. Oregon State has held opponents to 23% conversions at home this year and they are also +2 in turnovers per game at home. Their run defense is a strength allowing just 3.44 ypc in home games and they have dominated opposing QB's with 9 interceptions and just 3 TD allowed at home. |
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11-24-12 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Baylor | 45-52 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Texas Tech +3.5 3.3* PLAY; Texas Tech +150 1* bonus
Baylor is fresh off maybe their biggest upset in program history when they shocked the nation and dominated Kansas State. Texas Tech meanwhile was busy in the road at Oklahoma State turning the ball over 3 times and getting 2 punts blocked and got blown out. This line is inflated because of this. Baylor can not possibly be up for this game even though their bowl hopes are on the line. Not after upsetting Kansas State, something nobody saw happening. On the flip side Texas Tech remembers what happened last year in this game at Cowboys Stadium where it's played yet again today. Tech had their bowl hopes on the line at 5-6 and they eve knocked RG III out of the game at the half, but Nick Florence took over and they put up 60+ points. Florence is back, but this Texas Tech defense is much better than last year actually ranked 9th in yards allowed. They are also ranked 15th in completion % defense and have only allowed 52% conversions over their last 3. If Tech can find a way to stop the running game they should win this game out right and their players have a ton of motivation to do so after what happened last year. Baylor has been awful outside of last week and they don't deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in this one. They are 1-4 on the road this year and while this game is on neutral field they won't get the benefit of playing with home field advantage. Baylor has the 122nd ranked pass defense, they allow 71% conversions on the road, they are 119th in sack %, and they are 124th (dead last) in third down defense. Texas Tech has destroyed teams like Baylor in the past, heck Tech even put up 56 points on the road at TCU (Big 12's best defense). I do think Baylor will put up points and have success running the ball, but in the end they'll struggle more punching the ball in the end zone and converting third downs. Tech is better at those two on both sides of the ball and they have a huge emotional and motivational advantage and there is tons of value in the line given how both teams played last week. You have to look at an entire season and Tech is clearly the better team. |
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11-23-12 | Arizona State +3 v. Arizona | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Arizona State +3 -115 2.5* play
This is a huge rivalry game that has been decided on the last play of the game in the last three match ups and 8 points combined. Arizona may have the better record, but Arizona State has the better overall team and more balance. Arizona State also wants revenge in this battle after losing 31-27 at home and watching the Wildcats celebrate on their field. These coaches are quite familiar with each other as ASU's Todd Graham coached under Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia and adopted his offensive scheme. Rich Rodriguez also pilfered 3 of Graham's assistants from Pitt last year so I think Graham has a little extra incentive in this game to beat his former assistants and his old boss. At the end of the day though the players have to get the job done and Arizona State's defensive line should give Arizona fits. The Sun Devils are #1 in sacks and sack % led by DT Will Sutton and they are also 2nd in tackles for loss which have helped them to allowing just 29% conversions on third down in conference play while Arizona allows 44%. That's huge because Arizona State also has the more accurate QB and Arizona's 3-3-5 scheme is very small and banged up. I don't see Arizona making many stops against Arizona State at all. Recently Arizona's defense had to go as far as to play 5 players who were walk ons. Arizona State's got nice depth at running back and they should be able to run on this defense that has been unable to stop the run or the pass, while Arizona State is 8th vs. the pass and should at least be able to force Arizona into a one dimensional game and if they get up early Arizona State should be a lock to win the game with their pass rush which they clearly can do given Arizona's 117th ranked defense that won't be able to take advantage of Arizona State's weakness up front as they are 111th in sack %. |
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11-23-12 | West Virginia -1.5 v. Iowa State | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 5 m | Show | |
West Virginia -1.5 2.2* PLAY
West Virginia found their offense again last week against Oklahoma but lost a heart breaker. There is no guarantee they get into a bowl game so they need to still win 1 of their last 2. This team finally gets a break vs. a weak offense although their score from last week would say otherwise, but I think that is why we have a low spread this week. Iowa State is not inside the top 70 in any offensive category. The last time West Virginia played a team even close to that was Maryland who they held to 21 points and won by 10 points. Maryland had a strong defense ranked 15th, and Iowa State just does not have that especially after they lost one of the best LB in the Big 12 in senior Jake Knott. Iowa State is ranked 95th in total defense 114th against the pass as they have just 14 sacks on the season. Geno Smith and his 70% completion rate should be able to score at will especially since Iowa State has also relied on turnovers. Smith has 0 interceptions on the road and the team has 4 turnovers total. West Virginia also added in Tavon Austin at RB and he had 344 yards. I don't think Iowa State will have an answer and their offense is still not capable in the spread offense that they run as they lack the speed to play out on the perimeter. Iowa State has not been good on third down and that will keep their defense on the field this week. |
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11-23-12 | LSU v. Arkansas +12.5 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 5 m | Show |
Arkansas +12.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
This game is Arkansas bowl game since they won't be going to one and there will actually be a trophy for the Golden Boot. LSU has cruised by in their season being on the road for just 3 games in which they had just 42 points combined and scored more than 12 points ( the point spread) once. Arkansas 81st defense is nothing to be excited about, but their weakness is against the pass 119th in the country, while they have been stout against the run 26th and are 24th allowing just 3.6 ypc. LSU has always been a run first team and are in the tops in the nation in rushing play %, but they have only averaged 3.89 ypc on the road and 3.2 ypc in their last 3. I don't see this game getting out of hand based on LSU's offense even if they are starting to become more balanced, because Arkansas has the offense to move the ball. Arkansas started this season as bad as you could and most of the coaching staff will be coaching their last game for this team which is led by 21 seniors including Tyler Wilson at QB and WR Cobi Hamilton who has 80 catches for 1,237 yards. LSU's secondary has not been challenged by anyone. They have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in passing attempts and that was Texas A&M who led LSU 12-0 before they ended up turning the ball over a ton. You could make an argument that Tyler Wilson is the best QB that LSU has faced all year and you better bet he wants to go out on top as a senior, saying "We've got one game left, and we know this is it. So why not go out there and light it up one more time." I don't see a significant edge for LSU in this game even on third down LSU on the road is only converting 19%, and 38% in conference play, while Arkansas is converting nearly 40% overall and their defense has been good enough allowing only 38% conversions at home. Even in the red zone LSU only scoring 50% TD's, 40% conference play and 25% on the road, while Arkansas is at 57% at home and their defense is ironically the same allowing 70% TD's in conference play while LSU is too. Bottom line this is very much like the situation in 2008 when Arkansas was +7 at home and 4-7 with a season wrapped up they went on to win 31-30 and I can see a crazy game like that again. |
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11-23-12 | Syracuse v. Temple +8 | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 35 m | Show | |
Temple +8 3.3* play
Syracuse is on a high right now after back to back wins against Louisville and Missouri, but neither of those teams are as good as marketed and neither is Syracuse especially away from home. Many say this team has a balanced offense well they don't especially not away from home as they only average 3.6 ypc on the road. They could have major issues coming off a physical game going on the road for an early start on a short week and head coach Doug Marone even said he has 11 starters on the injury report including their top 2 RB's. Their offense needs both of those guys to be effective. Temple on the other hand has been on fire running the ball and while Syracuse is 32nd vs. the run they still allow 4.8 ypc on the road and they have allowed a ton of points on the road too 27, 35, 36, 23, 17. Temple may be one dimensional, but I think they can put up some points this week against Syracuse. They are very good on special teams while Syracuse is also not very clean ranked 115th in penalties and 104th in takeaways while Temple is 44th and averages 2.2 takeaways per home game. Temples offense reminds me of Northwestern and the style of play they have does too which is very good in special teams runs with the QB and RB's. Their total yard rankings are very similar, and now they add a new wrinkle in QB Clinton Grangers which posses a lot of uncertainty for Syracuse. I think Temple will play a great game as Syracuse has a bit of a let down after playing so well, we already know this line is inflated because of that. Temple is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 following a SU win, and Syracuse is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road dog. |
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11-22-12 | TCU +7 v. Texas | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show |
TCU +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Texas normally would play Texas A&M, but with the Aggies off to the SEC that ended one of the oldest rivalries and here comes TCU who used to play Texas in the SWC and actually have 82 total match ups with Texas. It's a great transition for Thanksgiving and will be an interesting match up for Texas who for the first time in a long time won't have the best defense on the field on Thanksgiving. Both teams are off a bye week and I think that's even more important for a TCU team that needed the rest as they are very young. You have to wonder how much Texas was looking ahead to Kansas State who was likely to be undefeated but were shocked by Baylor. When the game starts Texas offense which has clicked at time this year will have several things they have not seen this year. TCU's defense has always been good and they are known for holding Kansas State to a season low 260 yards. Texas has dominated and gotten by on offense by facing bad defenses. TCU is ranked 16th overall and more importantly 7th vs. the run. This is by far the best run defense Texas will face all year. Over their last 5 games they have faced run defense ranked 95, 90, 89, 71, and 61 and even the game before that vs. West Virginia ranked 30th is a bit of a misconception since everyone throws on West Virginia. On the flip side TCU has had a tough schedule vs. run defense and Texas is ranked 100th in run defense, and that's good news for TCU because in their last game they could not protect their young talented QB. At least in this game they will be able to rely on the run. TCU is 3-1 on the road in the Big 12 this season because it's where they run the ball far more at a rate of 55%. If they follow that same script they should be well in this game especially since Texas could have issues on third down with TCU who is ranked 5th overall allowing just 28% third downs. That's important to note because of how over rated Texas offense is in this situation. Texas who has converted 52% of third downs has hardly faced any real defenses that can stop it and that's likely because of they have faced poor run defenses. Overall they have faced an average 86th third down defense. TCU is also 5th overall in takeaways this season and while Texas has been pretty good at holding onto the ball they have not been tested like this. I expect a close game and I would not be shocked if TCU pulled off the upset. Gary Patterson is a good coach and the extra rest was surely a benefit to his young team. |
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11-22-12 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
Cowboys -3 5.5* NFL POD
This game could be ugly as two of the most penalized teams will meet in Dallas on Turkey day. I'm loving the Cowboys in this spot as they are 13-0 in November at home under Tony Romo and Romo gets a favorable match up. I think we get a lot of value based on how the Cowboys struggled last week, but that was against Cleveland's passing defense. The Browns despite being ranked in the bottom of the league were the leagues best last year and have started to click in defending the pass allowing just 183 over their last 3. That was problamtic for the Cowboys because they have been unable to run the ball. I was not shocked to see their offense sputter, but it's no indication of how they have been playing because now they face a Redskins team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Redskins have been good in key running situations, but still have allowed 4.6 ypc on the road, but even more of a key is their inability to stop the pass. They're ranked 29th in yards allow, and 28th in sack % which means they can't afford to blitz and won't get to Romo like the Browns did. Redskins defense has allowed 32, 31, 22, 27 and 27 in road games this year and Dallas is fully capable in the passing game that just seems to get better and better by the week to put up those type of numbers too and if they do this game will be over because the Redskins rely more on the run and are not built to come back. RG III has been great and all, but their huge win last week is no indication of how good or bad they are. The Eagles have quit on their coach and the Redskins came off a bye. Now they travel on short rest to face the Cowboys at home on Turkey day. Dallas too has been one of the best run defenses at home good for 2nd allowing just 3.4 ypc. Ever since Jay Ratliff has come back they have been hard to run on. This will set up some longer third downs and that is where the Redskins seem to struggle big time as they are 30th only converting 30% of them while the Cowboys are 11th. Dallas defense on third down is also great ranking 5th allowing just 33% at home while the Redskins are ranked 29th. This translates over to the red zone where the Redskins are 20th and the Cowboys are 11th, but the Cowboys are only allowing 36% conversions in the red zone at home. Bottom line people love to bet the hot hand and whoever they are talking about in the media and that has led to bets coming in on RG III, but I think Romo and the Cowboys can take off here if they get a win here. It's a crucial game and the Cowboys just seem to have the matchups especially with S Brandon Meriweather lost for the season on the Redskins side. This Cowboys team could easily be 8-2 right now, but a few bad breaks and coaching decisions. Last week they finally pulled off a game they would have lost in the past and I think that confidence will carry them to an easy victory on Thanksgiving as their defense takes control. |
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11-22-12 | Houston Texans v. Detroit Lions +4 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Lions +3.5 3.3* EB Play
The Lions have had 5 losses by 8 points or less and the Texans are now 10-1 against a weak schedule in my opinion. No team runs more on the road than the Texans and the Lions have had issues defending the run, but looking at some of the key details of this game I'm confident the Lions will solve some of this in combination with the Texans inability to run the ball consistently. First of all ever since Ben Tate got injured this team has not nearly been the same and he's unlikely to play again. The Texans have leaned more on the pass and have run the ball 47% of the time over the last 3 which is about 8% less than they did all year. That has resulted in them converting third downs just 30% of the time over their last 3 games which could be a huge benefit to the Lions if they can stop the Texans on first down running the ball. Speaking of which, the Lions run defense has improved since last year and only allows 4.2 ypc at home, but looking at the stat in more depth you'll find that the Lions Defense has had to face an average 11.4th ranked rushing offense. Meanwhile the Texans are really only ranked 21st in ypc rushing offense which to me is not that impressive and won't win you games on the road vs. a high profiled offense as in the Lions. Houston's run defense which is ranked 9th also not that impressive as they rarely face any teams that can run the ball an average 19.8th ranked rushing offense. It's hard to argue that the Texans are not the better rushing offense and rushing defense, but on the road and looking at who each team has played it's definitely a lot closer than man realize. Next, The Lions have the #1 passing offense, and that's mostly due to the fact that they pass much more than they run. The Texans have not had to pass any decent passing games with just 1 in the top 10 and that was Peyton Manning who threw for 330 yards in week 3 when he was still shaking off the rust. The other was the Packers ranked 11th and the Packers moved the ball at well in a 42-24 win in Houston. We just saw Chad Henne and the Jaguars who are ranked 25th at passing the ball pass for 354 yards and 4 TD's. The Texans could be without Jonathan Joseph which could be a huge issue against a good passing team like the Lions. It's a hamstring injury which to me means even if he plays he won't be 100% those injuries tend to linger. The Lions also have the advantage in the red zone and third down. Their offense is ranked 13th and converting 47% of third downs, and their red zone defense is ranked 3rd allowing just 38% TD's in the red zone. While the Texans are ranked #1 in third down defense I expect them to struggle a bit because they will be facing a pass first team one they have not faced in quite a while. Lions are also converting red zone trips into TD's at a high rate 75% over their last 3 and 60% good for 8th on the season while the Texans are ranked 10th, but only convert about 50% of their RZ trips into TD's. think the injuries are too much for the Texans to overcome in this game. The Lions are desperate for a win at 4-6 to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think they'll get it breaking their losing streak on Thanksgiving Day of 9 straight years. |
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11-20-12 | Akron +19 v. Toledo | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Akron +19 4.4* NCAAF POD / Akron +900 0.5* play
Akron has 4 extra days to prepare for this game and despite being 1-10 and 0-7 in the MAC this will be like a championship to them. HC Terry Bowden has made great strides this year at Akron although the record does not indicate that. They have 4 games decided by 8 points or less and have not lost by more than 19 points on the road while Toledo has not beaten a team at home by more than 19. As good as Toledo |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers -3.5 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
49ers -3.5 4.4* NFL POD
Both teams will be starting their back up QB's here and even though the Bears Jason Campbell has more experience I"m giving the 49ers who are just far less reliant on their QB a huge edge. The 49ers have never asked Alex Smith to win games and now that he's out they actually get a new wrinkle with Colin Kaepernick in there who can be explosive in the running game. That's the key right there the running game and the 49ers are far more dominant at running the ball than the Bears. 49ers are ranked 1st overall and average over 6 yards per carry at home. The Bears are ranked 29th on the road in ypc allowed and they have faced rushing offenses on the road ranked 25th, 32nd, 31st, and 5th. I'm very sketpikal on their gap integrity and ability to stop this rushing attack tonight. They are ranked 18th overall and are allowing 4.8 ypc on the road. The Bears have relied too much on forcing turnovers and when they face teams that do not give the ball away they lose. 49ers are 5th in the league with fewest turnovers. The Bears have played two other teams like that and lost both to the Texans (at home), and Packers (on the road). 49ers also can stop the run much better than the Bears can ranked 3rd in the league and their defense has been tested by several top 10 teams especially at home already. San Fran has actually improved their red zone TD% this year ranked 7th, while Chicago has done a poor job ranked 44th and scoring just 36% TD's on the road. The ability of Campbell will only reduce that especially given how great the 49ers run defense has been. |
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11-18-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +16.5 v. Houston Texans | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Jaguars +15 3.3* play; Panthers +1 3.3* play; Jaguars +21.5/Panthers +7.5 2.4% Teaser at -120
Jaguars, I really like this play with the Jags here they have played extremely well on the road coming close to beating the Packers, beating the Colts and losing by a field goal to both the Vikings and Raiders. The Texans are in an interesting spot facing the Lions on Thanksgiving up next on a short week and they just came off a hard fought win against the Bears. It's hard to say they won't be looking ahead or have a let down. Jax should be in this game for the most part as the Texans will be going through the motions. Panthers, I've been on and off with this team and mostly have been right. The Panthers play a division game with revenge today against the Bucs, winners of three straight. The Bucs are getting votes of confidence from just about everyone around the NFL, but why are they just a 1 point favorite against the 2-7 Panthers? Tampa has the Falcons up next and if you have watched any of their games you know their defense is just not very good. Carolina made another statement firing their special teams coordinator and I think the team will respond again just the same way they responded after the firing of the GM a few weeks back when they went on the road and nearly beat the Bears. Carolina held the Bucs to 258 yards the first time the two met and the Bucs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Carolina, 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games on grass. The teaser is a good way to hedge things as these games fall on key numbers that are easy to tease. |
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11-18-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers +2 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Jaguars +15 3.3* play; Panthers +1 3.3* play; Jaguars +21.5/Panthers +7.5 2.4% Teaser at -120
Jaguars, I really like this play with the Jags here they have played extremely well on the road coming close to beating the Packers, beating the Colts and losing by a field goal to both the Vikings and Raiders. The Texans are in an interesting spot facing the Lions on Thanksgiving up next on a short week and they just came off a hard fought win against the Bears. It's hard to say they won't be looking ahead or have a let down. Jax should be in this game for the most part as the Texans will be going through the motions. Panthers, I've been on and off with this team and mostly have been right. The Panthers play a division game with revenge today against the Bucs, winners of three straight. The Bucs are getting votes of confidence from just about everyone around the NFL, but why are they just a 1 point favorite against the 2-7 Panthers? Tampa has the Falcons up next and if you have watched any of their games you know their defense is just not very good. Carolina made another statement firing their special teams coordinator and I think the team will respond again just the same way they responded after the firing of the GM a few weeks back when they went on the road and nearly beat the Bears. Carolina held the Bucs to 258 yards the first time the two met and the Bucs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Carolina, 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games on grass. The teaser is a good way to hedge things as these games fall on key numbers that are easy to tease. |
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11-18-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Kansas City Chiefs +4 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
Chiefs +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
I really love the Chiefs here and I think we are getting a ton of value here in a home dog. The Bengals did beat the Giants last week who have been playing poorly of late, but beating the defending Super Bowl Champions will get you tons of credit and the public is pouring in on the Bengals this week as road dogs. How could you back the Bengals on the road right now? Their defense has been terrible against the pass and the run. This will be the first game for the Chiefs since facing the Saints that they should be able to find balance as the Bengals are 31st in completion % defense and 27th in yards per carry defense and even worse when they are on the road. If you take away the records and you purely look at the stats the Chiefs could easily be the better team. They have plenty of weapons, the better defense and they are at home. They have Brandon Flowers at CB who is playing at a high level and should be able to take AJ Green out of the game or at least slow him down to give his team a chance to win. The Bengals lack balance on offense too and it's a clear reason why they are 29th converting third downs with just 31% rate and 28% on the road. The Chiefs are 12th, and their 3rd down defense is ranked 9th and allow just 28% at home. Chiefs main issues this year have been turnovers and scoring TD's as they are last in RZ TD%, but facing the Bengals should help as they are 26th in red zone defense while the Chiefs are 12th and allowing just 26% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games. I expect the Chiefs to hold the Bengals to field goals on possessions in the red zone. You can definitely see the Bengals struggling in this spot. |
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11-17-12 | BYU v. San Jose State +3 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
San Jose +3.5 2.2* LNF
This is another interesting game that nobody is talking about. BYU is 1-3 away from home and in 3 of those games they played good run defenses which is the strength of their offense. ONce again they'll play a strong run defense ranked 31st, but San Jose is also 20th in pass defense and ranked 7th in the nation with 34 sacks. QB Riley Nelson will find it hard moving the ball and the Spartans already went on the road and nearly beat Stanford in week 1. I compare that game because BYU has a similar style defense and overall team. The real difference maker in this game is BYU's depth in the secondary as they lose another player and this time due to suspension. NFL prospect S Joe Sampson got in a fight and now he's no longer going to be able to play which is a huge loss particularly in their nickel package which San Jose can easily take advantage of as QB David Fales is completing 72% of his passes and they are converting on 48% of their third downs at home. Fales will hook with WR Noel Grisby early and often. |
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11-17-12 | Ohio State +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 15 m | Show |
Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5* pod
Ohio State has a major advantage in this game coming off a bye week which allowed them to get healthy particularly at LB where they had some depth issues and that will go along way as they have to stop Wisconsin rushing offense. Ohio State is fully capable of doing that particularly because they feature a one dimensional offense as they are ranked 112th in passing offense and now have an unkown in there in Curt Phillips who has spent most of his career injured with 3 different knee surgeries. Wisconsin has played against 3 top 25 run defenses this year and the results have not been good putting up 7, 16, and 13 points losing 2 of them and should have lost the third to Utah State who missed several field goals. Bottom line they have gone 0-3 ATS against top 25 run defense and Ohio State is ranked 16th and they are allowing just 2.64 ypc on the road. Bottom line Ohio State does what Wisconsin does, but they do it better. Wisconsin's defense will have major issues stopping Ohio State's Braxton Miller. Yes they are the best run defense in the Big Ten, but the only other time they faced a capable running game with multiple threats including a QB was against Nebraska a game they lost and gave up 259 yards. Wisconsin also won't be with a healthy Chris Borland who is their best player on defense at LB. He hurt his hamstring and those injuries tend to linger. Ohio State also has an emotional advantage here off a bye and Wisconsin already has the Legends division wrapped up after last week's blow out of Indiana as Penn State and Ohio State are ineligible. Ohio State will be playing this game like their default bowl game. Ohio State has major advantages in red zone and on third downs that will allow them to win this game on the road. First of all they are allowing just 33% conversions on the year and are converting 45% good for 30th and 48% in road games while Wisconsin is ranked 108th converting 31% of their third downs, that's what an offense that has no balance will get you. In the red zone Braxton Miller is a difference maker as Ohio State has not only gotten there 9 more times, but they have scored 80% TD's and 77% in conference play to Wisconsin's 63% and 68% percentages. Ohio State's defense too has produced better numbers holding opponents to 48% TD's in the red zone while Wisconsin is ranked 68%. There is also no love lost between these two coaches and you better bet Urban Meyer will flex his coaching muscles with a well prepared game plan off the bye. |
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11-17-12 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show | |
UCLA +3.5 4.4* PLAY
USC has played three balanced offenses this year and have struggled against them all. Better yet they have struggled against spread offenses with a dual threat QB and that's what they face this week against UCLA ranked 13th in total offense but 31st in passing offense and 25th in rushing offense behind the likes of RB Johnathan Franklin who is averaging 6.38 ypc and red shirt freshment QB Brett Hundley who has 6 rushing TD's and is ranked 17th in the nation in passing efficiency. USC will have its hands full against UCLA's pass defense which on paper does not look so good because they have given up a lot of yards in garbage time, but when they are at home they have held opponents to 58% completions 6.2 yards per attempts and only 3 TD and 8 interceptions. Matt Barkley has been turning the ball over quote a bit and that's going to be a key against UCLA a team that can get into the backfield as they have 79 TFL and are ranked 5th with a 9.35% sack %. Their defense is awfully similar to Stanford who USC struggled against and lost as Stanford too gave up a ton of yards this year 102nd in pass yard defense, but were 6th in sack % not allowing Marqis Lee and other receivers down the field. UCLA's offense has been better than USC on third down and in the red zone and you can't sleep on UCLA's ability to stop teams as they are ranked better than USC allowing just 31% conversions on third down. I think they will have more success at getting to the QB since they are home, but more than anything QB Brett Hundley possesses the skill to neutralize USC's ability to sack the QB where Matt Barkley does not unless he gets rid of the ball right away. This is a huge rivalry game and UCLA wants revenge for the beatings they have received over previous years. Look out for the X factor in UCLA TE Joseph Fauria, he's a big weapon at 6-8 particularly in the red zone where UCLA has scored 71% TD's in conference play to USC's 59%. |
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11-17-12 | Houston v. Marshall -3 | 41-44 | Push | 0 | 36 h 47 m | Show | |
Marshall -3 -115 2.5* play
A good indication is what each team did against Tulsa. And there is a 464 yard difference as Marshall was +221 while Houston was -243 yards. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and right now Marshall just seems like the better team to me as Tulsa just does not seem to be there emotionally after losing two of their best players in Charles Simms on offense and then DJ Hayden on defense who had a near death experience in practice. Houston's 110th ranked pass defense must go up against Marshal's 3rd ranked passing offense. Rakeem Cato has been great all season long completing nearly 70% of his throws and has 16 TD to 2 interceptions in his home games. He's not likely to be pushed by Houston's defense on Saturday and that's a good thing for Marshall who is +7 in turnover in their last 3 games while Houston is 105th in the nation in turnover margin. Marshall has also converted 57% of their third downs at home while Houston is allowing 56% conversions over their last three. David Piland is just not at the same level as he has only converted 57% of his passes and has thrown 12 interceptions he goes up against a Marshall defense that has been bad, but ranked 54th vs. the pass and allowing just 58% completion percentage at home. Marshall is +11 in red zone attempts and has converted 21% more into TD's while their defense has allowed 10 less RZ attempts and has been better in conference play. Marshall has under achieved this year and should be able to come together and beat an emotionally unstable Houston team. |
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11-17-12 | Rutgers +6.5 v. Cincinnati | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Rutgers +7 -120 4.2* play
Rutgers is the best defense by far that the Cinci Bearcats have faced and their strengths match up perfectly with Cinci's strengths. The last defense they faced was Virginia Tech and they only averaged 3.2 ypc, and that will be the key for Rutgers on Saturday, stop the run. Rutgers is 17th in the nation in stopping the run and 14th allowing just 3.2 ypc on the season and 2.8 ypc on the road. Cinci's rushing offense is averaging 5.9 ypc at home and 5.6 ypc overall behind George Winn, but those numbers are inflated big time. Not only have they faced two FCS foes, but they have faced run defense that have the following ypc averages based on where Cinci played them (home or away) - 5.2, 4.2, 4.8, 4.9, 5.9, 4.8, 4.6. Now they'll face Rutgers who is at 2.8 ypc at home and you better believe they are ready to stop Cinci's rushing attack again starting wtih DT Scott Vallone who can plug the hole allowing LB's to make tackles for loss. If they can stop the run they'll force in inexperienced QB to throw and Rutgers is #1 in takeaways in the Big East. QB Brendan Kay takes over for Munchie Legeaux who was terrible this year. Kay is a 5th year senior who has little playing experience and that's for a reason, he's just not good. Kay did look good in relief and then against Temple going 13-21 for 244 and 2 TD's, but Temple's defense has been awful against the pass ranked 92nd while Rutgers is 26th. On the flip side Rutgers is going to have to score points something they've been struggling to do, but Gary Nova will have an advantage in this game as his three starting receivers have significant height advantages over Cinci's 75th ranked pass defense. Look for turnovers to play a critical role in a tight played game and Rutgers is 6th in the country in that category. |
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11-16-12 | Hawaii v. Air Force -21.5 | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Air Force -21 -120 3* PLAY
This is a tough game for Hawaii, traveling on an 8 hour flight on a short week, and I think it will show. Add in the fact that they just are not very good and you have the recipe for a blow out. Unless Air Force continues to have turnover issues that have cost them a better season. Hawaii though has been unable to force turnovers ranking 117th in takeaways and dead last in TO margin. Hawaii has also lost their road games by 39, 47, 38, 35, and 15. The game they lost by 15 was to Colorado State, a team Air Force beat by 21 points. Hawaii is just not a good team ranked 99th allowing 5.0 ypc facing Air Force who is averaging over 400 yards rushing per home game. Hawaii can not keep pace like they may have been able to in years past their total offense is ranked 121st, and only 255 on the road. Air Force is solid vs. the pass and their weakness is against the run, but Hawaii has been unable to run averaging just 2.6 ypc which is why they are 117th in converting third downs while Air Force is ranked 6th and converts 63% of their third downs at home. They should dominate time of possession, win the turnover battle and hold Hawaii in check on senior night which will be the final home game for 23 seniors. It |
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11-15-12 | North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5 | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Virginia +3.5 3.3* play; Virginia +1.5 1H 1.1* play
It seems every team I take lately can only play a half a football game before going into the toilet as wast he case last night yet again. On Saturday we had covers at the half easily on two of overall losses which can be frustrating, but we have looked at this game extensively and have backed the Cavs the last two weeks with success and I am confident yet again. First of all you have to ignore the start Virginia had to their season. Since their bye week they have been the team they should have been by cleaning up the turnovers and playing to their strengths. Next, before you get all crazy about North Carolina and their statistics their non conference schedule has been brutally easy compared to what Virginia Scheduled. Virginia scheduled three legit top 50 teams in LA Tech, who nearly beat Texas A&M (their only loss), TCU which has been in some games against good teams, and Penn State ( a team that has surprised many this year). Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced Louisville (over rated as we saw last week), East Carolina (ranked 85th), and arguably the worst team in the nation in Idaho (120th). We will go over some key stats for their similar opponents that give Virginia in my opinion a distinct advantage on Thursday night. Before I do that we must talk about the emotional advantage Virginia has. First they have revenge on their minds from losing to North Carolina last year, they are in the national spotlight on a Thursday night at home, and they are alive for a bowl game. North Carolina is suspended from any post season action and are really just playing for bragging rights. We have seen a lot of inconsistencies from the Tarheels this year and I think that will continue on the road tonight where they have not played their best. Turnovers and penalties. Virginia has cleaned them up going +1 in the last three games combined while North Carolina is -.5 on the road. One thing Virginia has not cleaned up are the penalties where they are ranked 104th, but UNC is ranked 105th. Both teams should be able to move the ball on the opposing defense with their running and passing game. North CArolina got shredded after having a bye against Georgia Tech allowing 68 points and 5.7 ypc. Although the stats do not show it Virginia has the RB to continue that trend in Kevin Parks and Perry Jones. Many defenses have keyed on those two players this season because the offense has not been able to pass, but Michael Rocco has been on fire lately. If he stays on fire you can forget about the dual QB system they have been running this year. I don't see any signs that point to him stopping as North Carolina's pass defense on the road has been suspect allowing 67% conversions 8.1 yards per attempts, while Virginia is allowing 55.6% conversions and 6.2 yards per attempt and keeping everything in front of them forcing teams to have convert on third down. Third downs are such a key play in any game and even more so when two even teams face off in a critical game and Virginia just has a distinct advantage so far this season. Overall both teams are similar on offense ranked 71st and 58th for UNC, but UNC converts just 39% on the road to Virginia's 47% at home. 3rd down defense is Virginia's forte ranked 14th in the nation allowing 31% conversions and 29% at home while UNC has allowed 41% and 50% over their last three games ranking 66th, but what is even more interesting is what both these teams did in their games against 5 common opponents. Both teams faced 5 common opponents and both played 3 of those 5 on the road. The results are Virginia just out playing UNC on third down. Virginia converted 38.27% of their third downs in those games while North Carolina converted 34.67%. Virginia held opponents to 24.19% on third down while North Carolina allowed 45.56%. I give a huge advantage to Virginia on third down where this ball game should be decided. North Carolina is 1-7 ats int heir last 8 visits to Virginia and 3-11 ATS in the last 14 overall meetings. |
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11-14-12 | Ohio +7 v. Ball State | Top | 27-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Ohio +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD, Ohio +225 1* bonus
Everyone is down on Ohio it seems, but they were in a tough scheduling spot over the last few weeks as they played 3 games in a span of 12 days and lost two of them. That was not an easy thing to do and now they are on normal rest playing in a game where they can still get to the MAC title game if Bowling Green loses two games and they win out. It starts tonight and I feel this line is really off as Frank Solich is a very good game. The line is a clear indication based on Ball State |
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11-11-12 | Denver Broncos v. Carolina Panthers +4.5 | 36-14 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
Panthers +4.5 3.3* Early Bird play
This just is not a crucial game for the Broncos as it is out of conference as the Broncos also are looking ahead to two divisional games that follow this week including next week against the Chargers their main competition. The Broncos are 11-23 ATS the week before facing the Chargers. I think the Panthers are a good match up as they have not given up more than 1 passing TD in 7 of 8 games and that's partially due to being 4th in sack % which should mean Peyton Manning handing the ball off a ton in this one. The Broncos could easily be 0-4 on the road as the Bengals had a 4th quarter lead last week, the Chargers had a 24-0 lead at the half and they lost to both the Falcons and Patriots. The Panthers are still top 10 in red zone TD %, but this game really comes down to Cam Newton taking care of the ball. The Broncos are not a top 10 defense on the road and he should be able to move the ball and avoid big mistakes. The Panthers are 7-1 when he does not turn the ball over and 1-15 when he does. |
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11-11-12 | Tennessee Titans +6.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
Titans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD
Miami has not been a good home team for a while now going just 22-51-1 ATS in their last 74 and now they are favorites by nearly a TD their biggest number in almost three years? I don't think the Titans are nearly as bad as they showed last week against the Bears which was a complete disaster and their owner Bud Adams lashed out at his team all week and I think the Titans players and coaching staff will be playing with some desperation on Sunday. Dolphins are also coming off a tough loss, but they have a short week and a division opponent up next Thursday that they'll be looking ahead to. If you take out last weeks result the Titans are a very similar team to the Dolphins. The Titans have the better offense while the Dolphins have the better defense, but the Dolphins pass defense has just been awful. With Jake Locker coming back and providing a spark to the team I think it will be a big day for the Titans offense who have talented receivers that can beat the Dolphins with regularity on Sunday. On the flip side there is this idea that Miami can run the ball well they are ranked 28th in ypc with just 3.7 ypc on the season and 3.2 in their last three while the Titans should find more balance with Chris Johnson who is starting to pick things up of late. |
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11-10-12 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -3 | 27-26 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
Mississippi -3 3.3* play
It's been an up and down year for the Rebels, but they are one game away from becoming bowl eligible and this is their best shot at achieving that vs. an over rated Vanderbilt team. Vanderbilt really has not faced a balanced offense like Ole Miss all year with the exception of Georgia who really brings it to a different level than the Rebels but still Ole Miss can put up the points out of their no huddle spread and they have Jeff Scott who is one of the fastest and most explosive players in the SEC. When I mention that Vandy has not faced balanced attacks they have faced an average 111th passing attack in their 6 games + FCS foe when you take out the two decent passing teams they faced in South Carolina 72nd, and Georgia 33rd. Ole Miss is ranked in between at 63rd. Ole Miss actually is balanced ranking 46th rushing the ball and on defense too ranking 56th in total defense but 61st vs. the pass 51st vs. the run. Vanderbilt's offense is getting too much credit as they just faced 3 poor teams in a row. Their defense is still allowing 4.68 ypc ont he road and they can't create pressure just a 3.65% sack % on the road. Ole Miss on the other hand has a 5.15 ypc at home and they are converting third downs at a 12% higher rate than Vanderbilt. The biggest different will be in the red zone where Miss balanced offense is paying dividends converting at a 70% rate for TD's while VAndy is converting just 36% of their attempts on the road. |
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11-10-12 | Kansas State v. TCU +7 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
TCU +7 2.2* PLAY; TCU +225 1* PLAY If there is a defense that can stop Kansas State it's this one. TCU is young, but arguably this is the best defense Kansas State has faced all season and definitely since facing Iowa State on the road. I expect TCU to have a lead in this game at half time even with Kansas State really struggling. Is Klein 100%? Who knows, but with a healthy or unhealthy Klein I'm with TCU in this one as they should play with the lead as long as they can avoid turnovers which have fueled Kansas State's success all season long!
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11-10-12 | Arizona State +9 v. USC | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 5 m | Show | |
Arizona State +9 3.3* play
USC is in a major hang over spot and a look ahead spot. First they play an unusual early game which won't help the home crowd at noon. They come off a devastating loss to USC at home and they have UCLA on the road next week who if they beat Arizona State they will be playing to see who goes to the PAC 12 Championship to play Oregon again. Arizona State is a perfect match up here in my opinion. USC has had major issues against balanced offenses and in particular spread offenses with QB's that can run. Arizona State is 41st in rushing yards and 40th in passing yards. They are led by a trio of running backs and Taylor Kelly who has completing 65% of his passes and added some rushing yards. He's been good on the road in spots with 10 TD and just 3 interceptions. ON the flip side Arizona State's defense is only allowing 333 yards per game and even held Oregon to nearly 300 fewer yards than USC's highly touted defense did. Arizona State is 7th in the nation in pass defense and that's mostly due to the fact that they are #1 in sack %. Not many people are brave enough to throw on this unit led by DT Will Sutton. I don't think Marqis Lee can have the same type of games that he's been having and I don't know where the motivation will be. There are many other reasons why I like Arizona State, but mostly because USC is over rated. They have arguably one of the best QB's and best receivers in the game yet they are 84th in third down offense and it won't get easier going up against Arizona State which has held conference opponents to just 31% conversions and is ranked 31st in the nation. Arizona State's offense also has gotten to the red zone 13 more times and have allowed 9 fewer attempts by opponents. I think there is a lot value in this line and that's why I like Arizona State to cover and even push USC for a win. |
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11-10-12 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Stanford | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 4 m | Show | |
Oregon State +4.5 2.2* play
Oregon State +4.5 2.2* play Stanford is just 2-3 ATS at home and Oregon State has beaten the three physical, run first type offenses that they have faced with nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers across the board. Those teams I'm talking about are Utah, Wisconsin and BYU. All three share a top 30 defense in common with Stanford. These two teams have also played similar opponents in similar situations in a similar fashion and I just think this game will be close throughout and likely decided by a field goal in a low scoring game. I give Oregon State the edge because they are 21st in passing and that is a good match for Stanford's 106th pass defense. WR Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks should create mismatches on the Cardinal secondary. On the flip side Stanford likes to win with the power run game, but they are only ranked 58th in rushing yards this year and they are going up against a 5th ranked run defense. I say they struggle and putting the ball in the hands of first time starter Kevin Hogan is not going to be something that will work. At the end of the day both teams are similar on offense and defense, but Oregon State has played better in the close games. Stanford would be foolish to be looking ahead to Oregon next week, but who knows they already have too much confidence after beating up on the three worst PAC 12 teams the last three weeks. |
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11-10-12 | Cincinnati v. Temple +9 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
Temple +9.5 2.2*play
Temple showed it can play with the big boys at least for a little while as they were right there with Louisville the first 20 minutes of the game. Cincinnati just does not have the offensive balance that Louisville has so I believe they should be able to hang with them even longer as the Bearcats have a major issue at QB. I Munchie Legauex is not the QB then there are still major question marks. Legeaux has completed just 52% of his passes this year and Temple is 28th in sack % and is known for getting after the QB and forcing them into mistakes over the past few years. The Bearcats are also looking ahead to their match up with Rutgers and most likely looking past a Temple team that will be hungry to stay in bowl contention. They will do it with the run from the QB Chris Coyter and their two talented running backs the transfer from BC Montel Harris and the explosive senior Matt Brown. Cincinnati is allowing 4.4 ypc on the road and they are 100th in pass defense so I would look for Temple to throw the ball to keep them on their heels and that should lead to some points. AT the end of the day this is too many points for a road team without an aerial attack going up against an offense that likes to hold onto the ball. Temple is also ranked amongst the nation's best in many special teams categories including returns and punt yards. Cinci has already allowed a TD return and 25.25 yards per return this year. Expect field position to be in the favor of Temple all day. |
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11-10-12 | Louisville v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD Louisville has not played well on the road vs. bad teams and now they go up against a Syracuse team that has been very balanced on offense and defense across all major categories. Syracuse has tendency to win against ranked teams in the Carrier Dome and Louisville has just been asking for it the last few weeks. Syracuse will be playing on senior day and led by senior QB Ryan Nassib who is capable of beating Louisville's defense that has not faced anyone really. Syracuse has had tough games here already facing USC, Northwestern both are in the top 25 in the nation and the Orangemen will look to stay alive for a bowl game. Louisville's run defense just allowed 255 rush yards and Syracuse who has faced some of the better run defense has been able to keep a balanced attack at home with Jerome Smith and Gulley averaging 4.37 ypc despite facing two top 30 run defenses. Louisville is 50th against the run and could have issues facing a physical running back. On the flip side Syracuse is capable of stopping Louisville's 71st ranked rushing attack. They held Northwestern to 3.10 ypc which was their lowest all season by over a yard. They held both Pittsburgh and Uconn to under 1 ypc. At the end of the day Louisville is getting too much credit they have faced poor competition especially on the road and their defense is not nearly as impressive in key categories as Syracuse especially on third down as Syracuse is 32% to Lousiville's 41.6% on the road as Syracuse is among the nations leaders in tackles for loss with 67, while Louisville has just 42. Look for Syracuse offense that has struggled at times in the red zone to get it done on Saturday as Louisville's defense has allowed an 80% TD percentage on the road while Louisville's red zone offense has been excellent it's faced an average rz defense allowing 70% touch downs and Syracuse is only allowing 50% at home. At the end of the day going into the Carrier Dome is no easy task especially for a Louisville team that starts mostly under classmen led by Terry Bridgewater who is not close to being the same on the road completing just 59% of his passes. On Saturday for the first time this year he won't' be the best QB on the field as Nassib has been great completing 65% of his throws for 9 TD and just 2 interceptions and he goes up against a Louisville pass defense that has allowed 68% completion percentage in road games this year. |
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11-09-12 | Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Uconn +3.5 (3.3* Friday Night Lights)
This is a tough game for the Pitt Panthers no matter how you look at it. They are in a huge let down spot, traveling on a short week after they nearly beat Notre Dame in OT. Not only is there a physical hang over but there has to be a mental hang over. We saw it in the form of quotes when 5th year senior Sunseri openly blamed his kicker Kevin Harper for the reason they lost the game. Head Coach, Paul Chryst quickly reacted saying it does not fall on one guy. I just don |
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11-08-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +4 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
Jaguars +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
I love the Jaguars in this spot with all the hype continuing to grow with Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Jaguars have played terribly and deserve to be home dogs the rest of the way, but I think they'll want to prove something here tonight and I think they will have some success doing so against the Colts defense that has not played well on the road. I know Andrew Luck is going to be a star in this league, but right now there is just too much hype. He has not played well on the road in three games where he's been sacked 9 times and has thrown just 2 TD's and 6 interceptions. He's also not completing 60% of his passes and not even close on the season which is a clear indicator that he just does not have the weapons around him to be an efficient QB that will be able to win on the road. This defense just is not any good and I see the Jaguars playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and finally coming away with their first win at home. |
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11-08-12 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Last night
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11-08-12 | Louisiana Monroe v. Arkansas State -7 | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Last night
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11-07-12 | Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5 | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Ohio -2.5 3.3* play
My formulas have Ohio as a strong strong lean. My research and analysis have Ohio as a strong lean. The only reason this is not a bigger play is that the line movement is a bit funky and I'm puzzled by it, but I'm still going with Ohio based on 75% of my strategy telling me Ohio is a very strong play. Lets make no mistake about it Bowling Green's defense is playing like its one of the best in the country. 8th in yards allowed, 16th vs. pass, 13th vs. run and 9th in scoring defense. Let's slow down a bit, because they have faced an average total offense ranked 81st. They have only played one balanced offense in Toledo ranked 22nd overall and they lost that game giving up 450+ yards in a 12 point road loss. Ohio statistically mirrors Toledo offensively in the fact that they are balanced ranked 53rd in passing and 19th in rushing. Toledo's Terrance Owens through for over 300 yards against Bowling Green at the glass bowl, and Tyler Tettleton is fully capable of doing the same. Bowling Green's defensive line is the strength of their defense, but they go up against an Ohio offensive line that features 3 seniors and is ranked 35th in sacked %, only allowing Tettleton to be sacked 2.61% of the time at home. I think Ohio will find balance in this game handing the ball off too, because Bowling Green has not been as effective on the road stopping the run allowing 4.37 yards per carry and the duo of Blankenship and Boykin at RB for Ohio is a good combo that has resulted in a 5.12 ypc average at home. Now we spoke about why Ohio's offense can move the ball against Bowling Green, but we haven't spoke about Ohio's defense which is far better than Toledo's and I think we saw that in action last night. Toledo was ranked 108th in total defense and they held Bowling Green's offense which has nothing special to under 350 yards and 15 points. Ohio is ranked 37th in scoring defense and their one weakness against the pass that has resulted in allowing a lot of 3rd down conversions is improving. They have actually allowed just 35% conversions in back to back games and Bowling Green's offense relies more on the run as they are 83rd in passing offense. When they do go back to pass Ohio's front has done a good job at getting to the QB especially at home sacking the QB 9.27% of the time. Overall, both teams are similar in a lot of ways, but Ohio is just far more balanced, they are playing on senior night with 19 seniors and are home which is a huge advantage not to mention they are 9-1 in their last 10 week day games. Tyler Tettleton is by far the better QB and maybe the best one that Bowling Green has faced all year. Tettleton has connected with 16 different receivers this year which to me tells just how good he is. He leads a team that's ranked 18th in third down conversions and that's by far the best that Bowling Green's top ranked defensive unit has faced. On average they have faced a third down conversion offense ranked 83rd including Toledo 39th who went 7-14 against them. Ohio will be able to move the chains, but we can't say the same for Bowling Green who are ranked 86th in third down conversions and convert a meager 26% on the road this year. I think Ohio has played inconsistently at times which have led to some tighter games than expected but I like the way they played on defense over the last two games and I like their mind set going into this game. They are the better team at protecting their QB at home, getting to the QB, better running and passing game. They also are 8th in turnover margin to Bowling Green's 26th ranking and 46th in penalties per game while Bowling Green is among the worst in the country ranked 119th. I think Bowling Green has feasted on weak offenses that lacked balance and that has resulted in a top 10 ranking, but tonight they'll place an offense that can move the ball and protect their QB. I don't think Bowling Green will have the offense to pull the upset on senior night. |
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11-06-12 | Ball State +7 v. Toledo | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
I thank everyone who has been patient with my advice of late. In the world of investing there will always be ups and downs, but our overall goal is to earn a long term profit. 25% of my strategy is fading the general public and this week was just an anomaly as the public cashed 11 of the 13 games this week against the spread including last night
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11-05-12 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD
Neither team is very exciting to back right now, but how can you back a favorite that is doing something that's historic right now in the Saints and their defense. The Saints have allowed 400+ yards in 7 straight games and they have played some pretty bad offenses (Chiefs). The Saints are last in the league in yards per play 6.7 ypp and will go up against an Eagles offense that has struggled this year, but has the ability to put up over 500 yards of offense with the players they will put on the field. They also have the potential and the play makers to give Drew Brees trouble. The defense is the bigger key as the Eagles have not played nearly as bad as the media has portrayed. This defense is 3rd in third down conversions they are 3rd in red zone defense TD% allowed 37.5%, and 1st in pass completion % defense. Drew Brees and the Saints don't have the ingredients to beat the Eagles unless they force turnovers because I think this offense is going to finally click whether it's Michael Vick breaking the blitzes for dynamic plays or Lesean McCoy against the leagues worst run defense that's allowing over 5 ypc. Either way the Eagles offense is dangerous on turf and they need a win here. If they lose this game I see many changes coming. All the Eagles need is 238 yards against the Saints and the Saints will have allowed more yard through 8 games than any other defense in NFL history. The Saints defense is not forcing turnovers either so look for the Eagles to take what they give them as there will be a lot to take. |
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11-04-12 | Dallas Cowboys +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | 13-19 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Cowboys +4 5* NFL play Cowboys +175 2* play
The Falcons have had one of the easiest schedules all year. I don't think they have even played a playoff team with the exception of the Broncos in week 2, but in week 2 the Broncos were clearly not a playoff team with Manning still playing off his rust. The Cowboys have played 5 playoff teams in their 8 games and now they'll play their 6th and they absolutely can be the team to beat the Falcons. Takeaway Romo's turnovers and the penalties and the Cowboys are a better team. Unfortunately it is not that easy, but those are two things you can actually fix and I think we have already seen a game plan that's adapted to limiting the turnovers. Over the last 3 games the Cowboys have averaged 30 rushes per game. They run the ball 10.8 more times per game on the road than at home and if they stick to that formula that has had them in games they should be able to beat the Falcons who are 1 of 2 teams allowing over 5 yards per carry on the road and at home and they will be without their leading tacklers in Sean Wetherspoon. Again this game is going to come down to third down because I believe it will be tight throughout. Atlanta is 28th in red zone defense and allowing 87.5% TD's at home while Dallas is 14th, but on third down Dallas is 7th holding opponents to just 34% conversions while the Falcons are 24th allowing 42.35% conversions. On offense Atlanta is 3rd overall, but are only converting 34% at home. I guess they played some good defenses? Nope, they played 17th, 26th and 20th ranked third down defenses at home and produced just 34% conversions. Dallas meanwhile has converted 44% 7th overall and 48% on the road. I think this game will be there for the Cowboys to win and they certainly need it. |
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11-04-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Oakland Raiders -1 | Top | 42-32 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Raiders -1 5.5* NFL POD
We were on the Bucs to beat the Vikings at +210 last Thursday and now the public is in love with Josh Freeman again. However, this is a tough game and I see a bit of a hang over for a young team. For one this team is flying across the country to play this game against a Raiders team that is starting to click. Carson Palmer should be able to have a huge game against the Bucs secondary that has been decimated by injuries and trades. Their secondary was not good to begin with so this really puts them in a tough situation. The Bucs run defense won't help them in this game because the Raiders are very much used to being stopped when they try to run the ball and it has resulted in a lot of passes and good chemistry between Palmer and his receivers. On the flip side don't sleep on Oakland's front 7 ability to stop the run as they are only allowing 2.1 ypc and are 10th overall when you combine home and away stats. TB showed some real weaknesses against the run allowing 6.7 ypc, so don't think that Oakland will completely abandon the run. Look for McFadden to build off his first 100 yard rushing day. I also like the Raiders ability to hold the Bucs up on third downs as they are holding opponents 33% conversions on third downs while the Bucs are only converting 31% of their third downs and Oakland and Carson Palmer have done a decent job at home and are only getting better converting 41% of their third downs and those are key stats in a game that is supposed to be very close. |
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11-04-12 | Detroit Lions v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | 31-14 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Jaguars +6 3.3* play Jaguars +225 1* play
We are getting an extra field goal because everyone is pounding the Lions. I think again we get great value with the Jaguars in this spot who have started to play much better. They have been terrible at home so that is why we are getting so many points, but they played arguably two teams that could meet in the Super Bowl at home in the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans. The Lions really lack a defense that can make plays like those two. On the road the Jaguars have been super competitive and that's why I know this team can win this game even. They lost to Green bay but held the Packers to a season low 238 yards, lost to Oakland by 3, won at the Colts, and lost by 3 at the Vikings. The Lions three wins have been by a combined 11 points, so they are not blowing teams out like they did a year ago that much is for sure. The Lions also bring a similar one dimensional pass first type offense that lacks a running game, much like the Packers who the Jaguars should have possibly even beat last week on the road. Blaine Gabbert continues to improve and even without Jones-Drew the Jaguars have found new players to make plays and to me that's a good thing when MJD comes back, but for now we are seeing the emergence of Cecil Shorts, but the Jaguars will want to attack the Lions on the ground. The Lions are 22nd vs. the run and that's not a good recipe as a road favorite. Detroit is also being penalized 9.8x per road game and have turnover issues. The Jaguars are more sound when it comes to shooting themselves in the foot as they are the 7th least penalized team. I see the Jaguars finally coming up with a big win. |
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11-04-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns +4.5 | 25-15 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Browns +4 2.2* PLAY
I like the Browns here despite the Ravens coming off the bye. I think the Browns have been one of the most improved teams this year and still nobody is noticing. The Ravens on the other hand have digressed on defense and their plan for Flaco to be the next Eli Manning and lead by their passing offense has failed. The Browns seek revenge after they almost won on the road in Baltimore. Weeden had a good game and so did Trent Richardson in that game and I expect it to happen again here. The public have pushed this line to 4 points where I think there is excellent value. |
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11-03-12 | Alabama v. LSU +9 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show |
LSU +9 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay so here it is, the game LSU circled in the off season and it seems like the folks who scheduled the game wanted them to have every advantage they could. LSU not only hosts Alabama on what everyone knew was going to be the a game that had national implications, but they gave LSU the week off before. Don't sleep on Les Miles he's beaten Nick Saban before and with extra preparation should be able to put up a good fight in this game as the 6 head to head battles between these two coaches have been remarkably close on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. I expect nothing less from this match up on Saturday night in Death Valley. First of all no matter what anyone tells you Alabama has clearly had the weaker SEC schedule thus far having to play an over rated Miss State team at home is the highlight? Miss State beat a lot of weak non conference teams, and Alabama also played Tenn, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi. Nothing sexy about it that's for sure while LSU in its last three games alone played Texas A&M, the SEC's best offense, Florida, and South Carolina. LSU's pass defense is every bit as good as Alabama's pass defense and they are even better at getting to the QB, while LSU is also better at protecting the QB. Two keys in this game that nobody realizes. Alabama is 13th in getting to the QB 8.16% of drop backs, just 6.67 on the road while LSU is ranked 10th. Bama is also 108th in allowing sacks and A.J. McCarron is banged up because of it. LSU has not been great, but look at the sack defenses they have faced in A&M who is perennially a top 5 pass rush defense, and South Carolina both teams are ranked in the top 20. Bama faced Western Kentucky, but they are a team from the Sun Belt, none of the other opponents are ranked in the top 20 in sack %. So we spoke about what happens up front and we give LSU the small advantage on both sides based on stats, but being home is an even greater advantage, but we can't help but look at the QB match up which obviously favors the Crimson Tide on paper, but... Zach Mettinberger was recruited for this type of game and this won't be the national title game. Mettinberger has a strong arm and he's completing 63% of his passes at home. I'm not saying he'll have a better game than McCarron, but I don't think there is a big enough advantage on Alabama's side here to warrant getting more than a TD on the road especially when.. Alabama's running game that they lean on so much has not faced a top 15 run defense or run offense while LSU has. In fact other than Michigan's dual threat 16th ranked run offense that's not comparable to the SEC, Alabama has not faced a top 50 rushing offense. LSU is ranked 27th but they average 5.6 ypc at home and feature 4 running backs averaging over 5.96 ypc, and Spencer Ware who is averaging 4.11. Their RB will be fresh all game long and should find some room for manageable third downs against Alabama's defense that is a lot different than last year's national title team that lost 5 starters. Alabama is 17th in rushing offense 5.2 ypc, but they'll face an LSU run defense that allows just 1.6 ypc at home and has been tested by good rushing offenses already this year. The small things are special teams and other random stats that not many people look at. There is a lot of talk about which defense is better and I spoke about how LSU is just as good and playing at home should give them a huge advantage, but if you need a stat that tells you more LSU has 65 TFL this year and are averaging over 9 per conference game. That's 19 more than Alabama while they have also allowed 4 less TFL on offense than Alabama. That was the biggest difference in the national championship game last year as Alabama dominated the point of attack. With the extra week to prepare, + home field advantage, revenge, and all that's on the table for LSU I think there is a lot of value here and I would be shocked if the Tigers didn't cover this spread. |
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11-03-12 | Oregon v. USC +9 | 62-51 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 5 m | Show | |
USC +8.5; USC +275 1* BONUS
USC was clearly looking ahead to this game after they lost to Arizona in a heart breaker. I don't think they'll have a hangover. The fact that they only lost that game by 3 points after turning the ball over 5 times on the road is remarkable. We are getting a ton of value here on USC because of how Oregon has dominated and how USC has under achieved. The public's perception is that Oregon should dominate, but USC matches up very well with the speed that Oregon possesses on offense. First of all let's not make any mistakes, Oregon's schedule has been light and they have not been forced into a full game battle like they will on Saturday night. That is a huge advantage for USC because they have played in those type of games and have an experienced QB, while Oregon has a freshmen in Marcus Mariota who has not been tested all year. There are a ton of questions for Oregon if they get in a close game and USC definitely has the recipe. What is that recipe? Fast linebackers and getting in the linebacker. Well USC has some of the fastest most athletic linebackers in the country Dion Bailey, Hayes Pullard, and Lamar Dawson are capable and along with a fast defensive line are among the nation's best with 59 TFL. So stop the run first and that's something USC can do allowing just 2.1 ypc at home and are ranked 22nd overall. Oregon has faced nobody that can stop the run. I mean it, not a single team in the top 60 with an average ranking of 90. Oregon also has not faced a team this talented on offense. USC has balance with a very good run blocking offensive line paired with two of the best TE blockers who are also a threat in the red zone catching 6 TD combined in Xavier Grimble and Randall Telfer who help pave the way for Penn State transfer Silas Redd who is averaging 5.5 ypc, but the real talent comes from the receiving corps. Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are the best duo in the nation and Oregon won't have an answer. At the end of the day I know Oregon has put up ridiculous number on offense and have played better than anyone realizes on defense, but they have yet to be in a tight game and have a freshmen QB that's going on the road. They also have a history of losing this type of game after starting the year red hot. USC still has a lot to play for and their red zone defense will play a huge factor. At home they have allowed just 1 TD in 12 opponent attempts and are allowing just 39% to conference foes. |
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11-03-12 | Boston College v. Wake Forest -3 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 36 m | Show | |
Wake Forest -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* play
Wake Forest has a couple of extra days to prepare for what should be a big game as they look towards being eligible for a bowl game. Boston College is still holding out hope, but there is no way this team goes bowling having to win out after they just barely beat Maryland at home on a last minute TD pass. The biggest factor in this game will be WR Michael Campanaro for Wake Forest as he returned last game and now has had the extra time to work in with QB Tanner Price in which should be a game where they finally have some semblance of balance against a Boston College defense that is very bad. BC is ranked 115th in total yard defense, 94th in scoring defense, 72nd vs. the pass, 122nd vs. the run. BC's defense is allowing 66% completions on the road so even Tanner Price should find plenty of success as eh's completed 61% at home and now has Campanaro to work with. Wake has faced some top defenses already this year 4 in the top 54 and they will look forward to facing a BC team that can't get too cocky after keeping Maryland in check who was working with a 4th string freshmen QB. They still allowed over 330 yards in their own building. When we talk about getting pressure that's something we can not under estimate as Wake Forest has been very good ranked 36th in sack %, while BC is ranked 119th. Wake Forest also has 22 more tackles for loss than Boston College which should set them up in longer third down situations. That's not a good thing as Boston College is only converting 28%, and 21% on the road, while their defense has allowed 48% conversions on the road. Wake Forest on the other hand has been a bit better holding opponents to 46% conversions and have converted 39.4% at home. Bottom line this is a good match up for Wake Forest and their offense and defense that struggles against teams with speedier talent. Boston College definitely does not have a ton of athletes and speed and I think Wake will have every opportunity to win this game. |
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11-03-12 | Virginia +10.5 v. North Carolina State | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
Virginia +10.5 3.3* Early Bird Match Up Virginia +340 0.5* bonus
NC State played their biggest rival last week in North Carolina and blew a 4th quarter 10 point lead in dramatic fashion. A hang over is clearly in order. In fact this speaks to as how big of a game that was for both UNC and NC State as they are 0-19 ATS in their following game when they are favorites (NC St is -10.5 vs. Virginia) as long as neither team was favored in the rivalry by more than 11 points and NC State was +7.5 vs. UNC. Virginia comes off a bye and is technically still alive for a bowl game if they can win out, which I'm sure they are believing considering they play Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech to close out the season. Not to look ahead but this team can get some momentum coming off a bye. Their issues are pretty clear, turnovers. They are -16 on the season, and it is their easiest issue to fix and that's something that can be done with an effecient game plan and that's what I think we will see with a heavy does of talented RB Perry Jones and Kevin Parks. You wouldn't believe it if I told you but Virginia is actually on the positive end of total yards in all of their last 4 games while NC State is negative in their last 3. NC State also allows less yards and both teams have had similar schedules. It tells me that we are getting tremendous value at 10.5 points especially since Virginia's defensive strength is stopping the pass, ranked 25th in opponent completion % and that's NC State's strength as they have only averaged 3.3 ypc on the season. Virginia's defense has actually allowed 60 yards less per game than NC State who have shown some cracks in their own defense. Those are the things I'm talking about that when a team comes off a bye they can take advantage of. I wouldn't be shocked to see Virginia win this game. |
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11-03-12 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 | 38-13 | Loss | -101 | 35 h 6 m | Show | |
Miss State +7 3.3* EB play
Texas A&M came off a thumping against Auburn 63-21 while Miss State got thumped on the road to #1 Alabama. Now A&M is everyone's favorite play, but suddenly they are laying road chalk against a solid Miss State team that is always a tough team to beat at home and plays tough defense. I know the Aggies freshmen sensation Johny Manziel has turned heads in his first year in the conference, but with Alabama up next I see them peaking ahead a bit. I don't expect a hang over for Miss State as nobody thought they were going to go on the road and beat Alabama. Everything that they were playing for is still there for the taking. This is A&M's 4th road game in 5 games and they'll be on the road again next week so this is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Aggies and this is easily their most challenging road game as they faced SMU, Auburn, LA Tech, and Mississippi. Those defenses were ranked 93rd, 113th, 43rd, and 53rd while Miss State is ranked 26th and they play in a building that's very challenging to win in. A&M should be able to run in this game because they have done it all year, but the offense struggles to score TD's when they can't find balance. Miss State features two next level CB in Darius Slay and Johnathan Banks and that should make defending the run much easier. Miss State has been very good against the pass this year they held Tyler Bray to 148 passing yards at home and they are ranked 27th in opposing QB ratings. A&M has not faced a team ranked in the top 47 on the road this year, once again this will be Manziel's most challenging task and now that there is more tape on him it should be tough for him to carry the load. This is a copy cat league and Miss State absolutely has the personnel to copy what some other teams did against Manziel. Look for them to put a LB to spy on Manziel and force him to make mistakes. That's something MIss State has been good at and A&M is -5 turnovers on the road this year. They are 6th best forcing 3.2 turnovers per game at home and 16th overall. That goes along with the trend of this team. The Bulldogs just don't beat themselves, 14th in penalties per game while the Aggies are 104th. Miss State has also only allowed 37 tackles for loss and rarely get sacked just 3.03% of drop backs good for 17th. They should be in this game especially since they only allow 38% TD's in red zone on defense at home. |
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11-01-12 | Middle Tenn State +9 v. Western Kentucky | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
MTSU +9 2.2* PLAY
This is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Raiders a team that has played extremely well on the road. They won at Georgia Tech in dominating fashion, while they lost to Miss St that was to be expected. This is considered one of the biggest Sun Belt rivalry games and the loser is likely eliminated from conference championship considerations. Western Kentucky has won by being dominant on defense and forcing turnovers by getting to the QB and have not won because they have a dominant offense by any means. MTSU has taken care of the ball this year (top 50 in the nation) and they are 8th in least sacked teams as Logan Kilgore has just 4 interceptions while completing 67% of his passes while being sacked just 2.02% of his drop backs. Both teams are in the top 30 in rushing play % so I expect the clock to run most of the game making it difficult for an offense that only put up 14 points against FIU in their last game challenged to cover a 9 point spread. This offense has not been dominant and they tend to just try to limit the mistake and rely on their defense. That |
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11-01-12 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Virginia Tech -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the winner could be a top of the Coastal Division. So as bad as the season has gone it can still turn around and I |
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10-29-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Cardinals +7.5 -115 5* NFL POD; Cardinals +14/Under 45 6.5point teaser 2.5*
Two top 10 defenses face off today and John Skelton is back for a second start in a row for the Cardinals who look to break out of their funk. There is no better time to do it than Monday night and I think they have a chance to do it. I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Cardinals at more than a TD. Cardinals won last year 21-19 against the 49ers at home and they can sure do it again. They are 3rd in thid down defense while the 49ers are 8th, both teams are in the bottom of the league in converting third downs 21st for the 49ers and 25th for the Cardinals. Bot teams also struggle in the red zone to score TD's rather than FG's, but I think the Cardinals have a better chance on Monday night considering they have an elite RZ WR in Fitzgerald. The 49ers have also given up 100% TD's in the red zone in their road games this year and are overall ranked 17th. A closer look at the 49ers and you see a team that has continued to digress on defense and offense. I think they are still living off what they did last year and earlier this year to bad teams. The Cardinals should be able to run the ball a little bit after Lerod Stephens-Howling ran for more than 100 yards last week against the Vikings on the road in which they were +147 total yards. So the idea that this team can't move the ball is a bit over hyped as well. Also the 49ers in their last 3 games are allowing 4.4 ypc and they allowed 4.7 ypc against Seattle at home. Don't be shocked to see Arizona at home move the ball better than San Fran. |
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10-28-12 | NY Giants -1 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD
I love the Giants in this spot, now only are they 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games, but they are 3-0 in Dallas since their new stadium opened up. The Giants are fully motivated and a better overall coached team and after losing the match up to the Cowboys to open the season this game because crucial to their season and I think they'll win it. Cowboys lost their leader on defense and best tackler in Sean Lee so that's going to have a major impact going forward, but more than anything the Cowboys have to contain with a healthy offense from the Giants and a healthy defense. Hakeem Nicks will be back for this one and the depth that NY has at the WR position may be the best in the league. In the first match up Tony Romo took advantage of the Giants injuries in the secondary and Kevin Ogletree had a huge game, well that's not happening today. The Giants also should be better against the run, while the Cowboys should be without Demarco Murray and Felix Jones is also banged up. Statistically the Cowboys defense has been great, but they haven't exactly gone up against the best offenses. Look for Romo to make plenty of mistakes in this game and for the Giants offense to click when it has to. |
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10-28-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 6 m | Show | |
Taking the Eagles -1 as a 4.4* PLAY
Both teams are off byes. Andy Reid is 13-0 following a bye week, but he's also 10-3 ATS and has average winning margin of 10.38 pts per game. This may be his stiffest challenge facing a Falcons team that's undefeated but as we saw in the Falcons last game they are definitely beatable and have some glaring weaknesses that we will go over here in a minute. Actually the Falcons in 2008 faced this same situation after a bye going to Philadelphia who was also coming off a bye and they lost by 13 points. TEAM STRENGTHS: Atlanta, has found success the most when they have the lead in the game. Opposing teams have run the ball on them just 44% of the time because they are forced to throw and that has forced them to hide a glaring weakness that even Andy Reid should be able to discover and that's defending the run as they are 31st against the run. Combination of Vick and the leagues most dangerous RB in McCoy should fix that. Atlanta is also 5th in passing play % throwing the ball 64% and lacking any sort of balance. They go up against an Eagles team whose strength is defending the pass. Eagles have held QB's to 52% completion percentage among the best in the league. Eagles are 30th in scoring offense despite being 7th in yards/game, the reason? Turnovers and they are 26th in TD% in the red zone. They go up against a team that allows 64% touchdowns int he red zone and struggle against the run. For some reason teams continue to throw at the Eagles despite their success in pass defense. Opponents have thrown at Eagles 38x game 5th most. STRENGTH vs. STRENGTH: This game on paper appears to be strength vs. strength which is the Eagles defense vs. Falcons offense. Eagles fired their defensive coordinator during the bye week and now they have a first time coordinator. To me it's a good thing as the Eagles have given up 4th quarter leads and lacked the aggressiveness they always had. They were #1 in sack % last year and this year they are 31st. Expect that to change also expect it to be very hard for the Falcons offense to plan without knowing what this defense is going to look like because of the change. There is no history to draw upon. DIFFERENCE MAKERS: ATLANTA IS 0-7 @PHILLY Atlanta struggled vs. 2 mobile QB's RG3 and Cam Newton and had to make come backs in the 4th quarters in both. Eagles 3rd down defense 29% conversions allowed 24.32% at home, Falcons are 4th on the year in converting third downs, but they have faced teams that struggle in stopping opponents on third down especially in their road games (19th average defense). Falcons also allow 47% conversions on the road. Eagles should win the third down battle. Home field advantage - Eagles have already beat Baltimore and the NY Giants here, and the Lions over came a 2 possesion 4th quarter deficit. FINAL THOUGHTS: Again I can't help myself in a match up where the general public loves the Falcons because of their record and their hype around their fantasy players Ryan, Jones, and White., Eagles can avoid the turnovers they could win this game easily, what have the Falcons actually proved? Road games against Chiefs, Chargers, and Redskins and nearly losing to the Panthers at home? |
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10-28-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans -3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
3* play
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10-27-12 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. Kansas State | 24-55 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
Texas Tech +7.5 3.3* play; Texas Tech +250 1* play
When looking at this match up you have to look at what the strategy is for both teams. Both teams are in the top 10 in play % for what they do well. Kansas State is 6th rushing play % and Texas Tech is 9th in passing play %. And both those stats increase in their home/away splits with Texas Tech slinging the ball 63.4% of the time on the road and Kansas State rushing the ball 73% of the time at home. Knowing these facts allow me to know what to concentrate on in this match up. I look at three keys. Texas Tech's run defense, Kansas State's Pass Defense and Balance Def/Off. 1.) Texas Tech's Run Defense - Can it stop Kansas State? |
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10-27-12 | TCU +7 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
TCU +7.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; TCU +240 1* PLAY
TCU continues to fly under the radar and they are a few plays from being 7-0 this year. TCU is the best offense and defense that Oklahoma State has faced this season to date and they'll have their hands full at home against a well coached team that is playing more freshman than anyone in the country, but they are quality freshmen like Devonte Fields who already has 7.5 sacks. TCU brings the Big 12's best defense to town as they are going up against a balanced offense from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys though like TCU are having some issues at QB, although it has never mattered in the past we have seen their offense sputter a bit in conference play. TCU went into three OT's with Texas Tech, an offense that's very similar to Oklahoma State. I would say Texas Tech has a better offense and clearly a more experienced QB in Seth Doege as Oklahoma State is getting ready to start a true freshman in Wes Lunt who has played this season already. TCU lead the Big 12 in interceptions, run defense, third down defense so it will be a challenge for Oklahoma State and despite the 56 points they gave up to Texas Tech they actually held Doege to under 200 yards passing for 3 quarters + 4 minutes before they started to get picked apart. Their defense has gotten beat by some big plays, but that's something that good coaching fixes and that's what Gary Patterson has, he has a solid approach and motivates his players and I"m confident they'll fix this issue. We spoke about Oklahoma State's offense and Johnathan Randle is explosive out of the backfield but TCU is 27th against the run. Oklahoma State does not have the defense that Texas Tech has this year and they will have their hands full with Trevone Boykin who has put up 105 points the last two weeks since taking over at QB for Casey Pachal. He's a dual threat QB and that's something that Oklahomas State has not faced since their road game to Arizona where they gave up 59 points. If TCU can avoid turnovers they win and I think they will here on the road because Oklahoma State has not forced the turnovers like they did a year ago to win games. They sit 117th in takeaways and 105th in turnover margin so if anything TCU should be able to expose Oklahoma State's new QB who hasn't faced a defense that can get into the backfield like TCU. Some other key stats. tCU is 5th in third down defense and they've been good on the road holding opponents to just 25% conversions. Oklahoma State is 9th in converting third downs but they've been successful going up against teams that are ranked on average 71st in stopping opponents on third downs. TCU can stop the run on first down and set up third and longs. TCU on the other hand is starting to get their offense clicking over the last three games they have converted on third down 47% of the time. Oklahoma State is nothing special ranked 55th at stopping third down conversions. To win this game TCU has to score TD's not field goals. It's something they struggled with against Texas Tech, as they kicked 6 field goals, but it still took triple OT for Tech to escape with a win. Now Tech has been better in red zone defense than Oklahoma State as the Cowboys have allowed 71% TD's in conference play and 71% overall on the year. Their offense also has struggled scoring TD's in the red zone just 46% a far cry from their 72% season average. TCU has hold opponents to 53% TD's in the red zone and should give Oklahoma State issues. |
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10-27-12 | BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech -2.5 2.2* FREE PLAY
Georgia Tech came off their bye and they rolled over Boston College as they should have, but they were able to click on the ground and now they have a new look with QB Vad Lee who is a bit faster than Tevin Washington who is having a good year as a senior. I'm thinking the duo will be able to run all they want on BYU despite BYU being a top ranked run defense. The fact of the matter is BYU got exposed last week against Notre Dame and now they have to make a long trip in back to back weeks to face a Georgia Tech team that is still desperate for a big win to hang their hat on. BYU's usual stout run defense gave up 6.3 yards per carry to the Fighting Irish and they also gave up over 100 yards rushing to two running backs in Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood. Now they'll face a Georgia Tech rushing offense that is 7th in yards per carry and have multiple options in the triple option featuring Orwin Smith. I guarantee BYU won't be prepared for this type of rushing attack. The last time they faced was in 2010 and they gave up 6.4 ypc to Air Force. Georgia Tech is no Air Force or Navy they have a lot more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to get a big win at home. I also think BYU's run defense is a bit inflated since it's played 4 teams that are not in the top 100 in rushing offense. Expect Georgia Tech to dominate at home and go on a little bit of a run now that they put things together after their bye week. |
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10-27-12 | Maryland +2 v. Boston College | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 53 m | Show | |
Maryland +2 (3.3* play)
The Terrapins have some revenge to take care of after they lost this match up at home last year and they should get it done in an ugly defensive battle. Maryland is top 20 in run defense, sacks and total defense led by DE Joe Vellano and a strong linebacking corp led by the tackling machine in Demetrius Harstfield. Boston College can forget about running the ball they are 109th with just 3.1 ypc and Maryland's front 7 is just nasty against the run. This game will fall in the hands of QB Chase Rettig who is only completing 56% of his passes but does have 13 TD and 5 interceptions. I'm not buying the play of Rettig here as the Terrapins are 5th in opposing QB completion % at 50%. I don't see how Boston College moves the ball here with the 120th ranked third down offense converting just 27% going up against Maryland who is 29th in third down defense. Okay, so Maryland has offensive issues of their own, but they are so much better on offense and there is a reason why Boston has been run on by a higher % than any other team in the nation with the exception of Washington, Air Force, Hawaii and FAU. They can't stop it allowing 5.5 ypc, and while Maryland hasn't been able to run effectively this year their injury to the QB should lighten things up because they'll have an option QB that's more of a runner. I expect their new QB system with Devin Burns running the read option to pick up chunks especially since Boston College has not seen it much because Maryland has not run it much. Another area of concern for Maryland has been protecting the QB, and although they'll throw the ball when they bring in a new QB other than Burns they have to be concerned because they are dead last in protecting the QB. Well Boston College has not gotten in the backfield on anyone they are 118th in sack %. This is not the same Boston College defense we saw with dominant LB play from years past. Over their last 5 games they have been out gained by 1266 yards. Maryland is young but they have more play makers including freshmen STefon Diggs who is a game changer in this game. He's great returning the ball as well as getting the ball on quick outs. At the end of the day Maryland also holds advantages in the red zone holding opponents to 29% TD's and 25% in conference, BC has struggled big time only 40% TD's in the red zone and their defense is allowing 60% TD's. I think Maryland wins this game outright. |
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10-27-12 | Indiana v. Illinois -1.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
Illinois -1.5 4.4* NCAAF EB play
Illinois comes off a bye here after they faced three top 20 defenses and their offense and stock has fallen dramatically, but I think we get good value in an early game because of it. For the first time they'll face a poor defense in quite some time. Illinois defense is under rated as they have only allowed 2.6 ypc on the ground in their home games and I think they can hold Indiana's explosive running back Stephen Houston in check. Illinois is actually among the nations leaders in forcing three and outs and that's something their offense surely will benefit form on Saturday. The main issue with this group has been blown coverages and missed tackles and that's perfect for a bye week. It's something that can be cleaned up and on paper this is still hte best defense that Indiana has faced on the road. No doubt head coach Tim Bechman will see the tape of Indiana's strength in the passing game. Cam Coffman has been good on short intermediate routes but lacks any arm strength to throw to the perimeter and I think Illinois will bring their safeties close to the action. Illinois is also only allowing 34% 3rd down conversions at home while Indiana only converting 36% on the road. Now offensively Illinois should be just fine. Facing three top 20 defenses in Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State going into the bye will make them work that much harder and coming out of the bye facing a defense like Indiana should result in positive things. Indiana is 85th in third down defense and they struggle against mobile QB's. Nathan Schelhaase may actually be able to have a good game. He's been knocked out of games because of the poor play of a banged up offensive line, but in this game that will be different. For one his offensive line is actually healthy and Indiana is 101st in sack % and only gets to the QB 2.38% of drop backs. This is a big week for Illinois with it being homecoming as well and they just meet an Indiana team at the right time, unfortunately for the Hoosiers. |
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10-27-12 | Iowa +5.5 v. Northwestern | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
Iowa +5.5 (3.3* PLAY)
Northwestern has struggled with no identity on offense as they are only averaging 274 yards per game over their last three facing some pretty good defense in Penn State Minnesota and Nebraska, but Iowa is ranked 27th in total defense and should give Northwestern fits too. I think we are exaggerating last week's results which saw Iowa lost to Penn State big at home and Northwestern nearly upset Nebraska. Iowa flat out lost and struggled on defense, but that was to be expected considering Penn State came off a bye and Iowa just came off a huge win against Michigan State. Northwestern was out gained by more than 200 yards, but were lucky to be +3 in turnover margin against Nebraska to be in the game as Nebraska muffed two punts that Northwestern recovered. These are the small things that Northwestern does well. Special teams +turnover margin, and they don't beat themselves. However, coming into this game Iowa is 27th in turnover margin and their special teams coverage is excellent so Northwestern will have to dominate on both sides to cover this spread and I don't see it happening even with Iowa losing 2 offensive line starters last week. First of all Iowa will get their key player Mark Weisman back as he got hurt early against Penn State. Also Northwestern has a banged up secondary missing 3 key players. This might finally be the game we see Iowa's QB James Vandenberg look like himself. Actually I'm betting on that's what we will see. Northwestern has been unable to sack QB's anyway so pressure wont' be an issue and Iowa has already played 5 top 30 pass defenses and now Northwestern is ranked 54th and they are beat up which should result in Iowa's ability to move the ball. |
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10-26-12 | Cincinnati v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Louisville -3 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* NCAAF POD
I like Louisville in this spot tonight as they were clearly looking ahead to this game on their calendar and it showed when they struggled against South Florida. The biggest difference in this game is the QB and Louisville holds a significant advantage there with Munchie Legaux coming off his first road game this year throwing 2 INT's and now he'll play in an even more hostile environment. Legaux has completed just 44% of his throws on the road and 53% overall, while Bridgewater has been elite like with 73% completions and 80% at home which include 7 TD and 0 INT's! Louisville's run defense has also been better ranked 48th to the Bearcats 67th ypc run defense. Cinci has given up 5.1 ypc on the ground on the road and will have their hands full with 2 capable RB's and a mobile QB in Bridgewater. Louisville now has lost to Cinci 4 years in a row and many of the players know this is the hump they have to get over and I think they will here tonight. Cinci will also be without their leader on defense in Walter Stewart who is their top pass rusher that should go along way as Louisville is 6th in third down conversions . I think they'll be able to convert on this Cinci defense that's having issues stopping the run. Louisville's offense also has been great in the red zone converting 80% of their trips into TD's compared to Cinci's 59% and their offense has struggled in conference games just 5 RZ trips for the Bearcats resulting in 2 TD's. I think Louisville has a significant advantage there as well. We started to see it last game with Louisville getting a bit more aggressive on defense led by DE Lorenzo Mauldin and I think we see it again under the lights on Friday. It's a big key when Louisville or any defense can concentrate on a one dimensional offense like Cinci. I wouldn't be afraid of Legaux's ability other than the deep threats because he's just not accurate. I expect Louisville to force him into turnovers as this is his biggest game of his career. Meanwhile Bridgewater seems cool as a cucumber and should be able to move this offense. This is the best QB Cinci's defense has faced this year as they've faced 2 FCS foes and a group of over rated teams with the exception of Toledo who upset them last week. |
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10-23-12 | Arkansas State +4.5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette | Top | 50-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Arkansas State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is a huge game for both parties in the Sun Belt race and should hold a playoff type atmosphere. |
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10-21-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay +2 3.3* play
On paper this looks like a mismatch for the Bucs since they are 31st allowing 312 yards passing, but that's smoke and mirrors. This team has allowed the third least amount of passing TD's and haven't allowed one in 3 games. Brees has all the hype on his side with the record breaking performance and now this team comes off a bye, but I'm still not convinced they fixed the issues that reside on their defense and now they faced a team that has a balanced attack. TBs offense is starting to get some confidence with Blount/Martin combining for 145 yards last week and the Bucs passing for 318. They have two big athletic options at WR that the Saints won't be able to cover in this one in Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. I expect that duo to have a huge game here today. As we know the Saints are a pass first team and have been unable to get balance and today will be no different facing the leagues #1 rushing defense. The Saints only played one other top 10 run defense and that was the Chargers who they trailed at home by 10 before coming back, but the Bucs actually have a spine and that won't happen on them. TB should be good enough in pass defense they are actually 12th in opposing QB rating while the Saints are 30th and have allowed a 123 rating in their road games. Josh Freeman should have a good game. The difference will come in the red zone. Both are top 10 red zone offenses, Saints 3rd, and Bucs 6th, but the Saints without Jimmy Graham will present them a lot of issues against the Bucs who are 2nd in red zone defense allowing just 25% TD's. The Saints are 21st and have allowed 80% TD's in the red zone on the road. |
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10-21-12 | Green Bay Packers v. St. Louis Rams +6 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
Rams +6 5.5* POD, odds at SIA, Bovada and others
I found these odds all over the place, but I"m comfortable if you get it at +5 as well. All of a sudden GB gets a win on the road against a good team and they are back? I still think the Packers have a ton of issues and they are one of the more arrogant bunch of players who go on the road to play in St. Louis, a very difficult place to play. GB is all banged up in their front 7 and they will have their hands full with the Rams running game that just ran all over the then #1 run defense in Miami. In fact they put up 462 yards vs. one of the top defenses and they did it on the road. They went on to lose that game so much of that story is hidden by their 2-5 field goals that cost them the game. I'm fine with that as the perception of most is, "same old Rams." Many are jumping on the Packers and I'm not buying it. The Rams have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and GB is a one dimensional offense that will have issues going up against the Rams, because the Rams are one of the best pass defenses in the league. It starts up fornt where they are 7th in sack %, and get to the QB 10.34% of drop backs. That does not bode well for Aaron Rodgers who is not having as good of a year. Rodgers has been sacked 12.2% of the time he drops back on the road and now without Cedric Benson he's thin at RB. I just think the Rams offense is improving and going up against GB's 27th ranked RZ defense where they have struggled will only help them in this game. I think the Rams have a lot of confidence now and could win this game outright because of their strengths. Look for Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan to make some impact plays when Rodgers throws the ball. |
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10-21-12 | Cleveland Browns +2 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
Browns +2 4.4* play
The Browns are so under rated and we had them in a huge win last week. This game is interesting as it's a repeat of the Fiesta Bowl in Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck. Weeden just has more talent and balance behind him on both sides of the ball and the strengths really match up well for him in this game. First of all the Browns easily could be 3-0 on the road with chances to win all three games vs. the Ravens, Giants and Bengals and that's saying a lot since all three were in the playoffs last year. The Colts were exposed a bit last week in New York allowing 252 rushing yards to an offense that hadn't been able to run the ball all year. The Browns should have success doing both passing and running and I'll tell you why. Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty are as good as any tandem in the league, yep I said it. and now they finally get to go up against a run defense that's just not very good in the Colts ranked 29th. This will be a good game for them as they won't have to throw the ball on every play. Both of these teams are 28th and 29th in fewest run play % which says something about their faith in the QB. At the end of the day Weeden will be able to find some open receivers because they will have a working running game and the Colts edge pressure won't be a factor against the Browns who are in the top 10 in protecting their QB. Browns have Joe Thomas and Michael Schwartz protecting the dge who are as good as any. Look for the Browns to be able to also score TD's and not field goals as the Colts are 32nd in red zone defense allowing 73.68% TD's while the Browns are 15th 50%. |
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10-20-12 | Washington +7.5 v. Arizona | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
Washington +7.5 3.3* play
There are two reasons why Washington's offense has struggled in a year that they were supposed to improve. They have had injuries on the offensive line and they have faced 4 top 25 defenses. Well that won't continue when they face Arizona one of the worst defenses in the nation. Mike Stoops left the this defense thin, young, and small and new head coach has them out there for 82 plays per game. It's not a good competition against Washington's offense that won't be pressured as Arizona is 119th in sack % this year. Expect the old Keith Price back in this game now that he'll have time and expect an absolute monster game from his TE Jenkins who should man handle Arizona's back 8 who have one guy over 215 lbs. I think you should also see another big game out of WR Kasen Williams and RB Bishop Sankey. Now Arizona can sling it with best of any and are ranked 1st in passing offense in the PAC 12, but that is Washington's strength. They held Matt Barkley to 10-20 167 yards. They return all but one of their key players from a secondary last year that was expected to be the strength of the team and has been as they only allow 172 yards per game. Their new DC Justin Wilcox has been outstanding as a former DB. He's got tow next level players in Safety Justin Glenn who is a sure tackler which will help while defending the spread and CB Desmond Trufant completely took USC's Marqise Lee out of the game as he finished with 2 receptions and 32 yards. Price also came around in that game completing 16 straight passes at one point. This is Washington's game to take. |
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10-20-12 | Cincinnati v. Toledo +6 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 42 h 55 m | Show | |
Toledo +6 4.4* NCAAF Play
Toledo will face a ranked team at the glass bowl and they are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 home games vs a ranked team when they welcome Cincinnati on Saturday night. Toledo's offense is the best offense that Cinci will have faced all year because they can beat them through the air and the ground. They are averagaing 39.7 ppg and their only loss came in OT against Arizona. Toledo has a triple threat in QB Terrance Owens just shy of 300 yards, WR Bernard Reedy 52 rec 666yards, and 5 TD's and RB David Fleullen 792 yards 9 TD's. Cinci has already shown weaknesses on defense. I mean Fordham started the game last week with 22 straight offensive plays and their QB Ryan Higgins finished the game 31-42 262 yards and a TD. That's an FCS foe and now they face one of the best offenses in the country. Even their HC Butch Jones is worried about Toledo saying, "Their collection of skill players may be the best we'll face." One of the keys to the Bearcats defense is creating pressure and when they do that they are successful, but they go up against an experienced Toledo offensive line that only allows 3.9% sack % and that's for a running QB where you usually see higher number. Toledo's defense has really buckled down in home games allowing just 30% conversions on third down while Cinci has been good too ranked 33rd allowing 35% conversions. They'll be tested by Toledo who is ranked 25th at converting third downs. I think Toledo has the edge because they have more of an ability at home at stopping the run only allowing 3.4 ypc while Cinci has allowed 4.7 on the road. Cinci is also obviously looking ahead to Lousiville who they have on deck and this is that classic trap game for them. They are well aware of it, but the fact of the matter is they have not faced any real good teams and already struggled against a MAC team this year and at times against FCS foes. I think Toledo takes this game. |
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10-20-12 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 67 h 40 m | Show | |
[b]Florida -3 4.4* NCAAF Play[/b]
I have to think that emotionally this South Carolina team is just in a tough situation after being so high after beating Georgia at home as home dogs and then coming up short against LSU where the final score was not indicative of how much they were dominated in that game. |
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10-20-12 | Michigan State +9.5 v. Michigan | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show | |
Michigan St +9.5 3.3* play
In my opinion this game is a bit crazy. It's based on two Michigan blowouts of just bad teams and Michigan State's struggles, but when these two meet it's just a different animal and Michigan State matches up extremely well against Michigan. First of all Denard Robinson unlike Taylor Martinez has yet to prove he can pass the ball and until he does I"ll continue to fade him and win money when he goes up against top tier defense. Michigan State is still a top tier defense ranked 5th in total defense. Michigan has played two other top 10 defenses and they lost both games. Michigan State is very good against the run ranked 15th in ypc allowed and that will give Michigan all sorts of troubles. On the flip side Michigan has been good against the run, but has struggled against offenses that are more physical. Leveon Bell is as physical as you get from a RB and I see him having success here. The team that has the most rushing yards has won 39 out of the last 42 match ups. I do expect Michigan State to win the rushing battle. They still have a strength at LB led by Max Bullough and Denicos Allen who took over for Sr. Chris Norman and was all over the field last week against Iowa. I've spoke a lot about each teams rushing game, but Michigan State by far as the more balanced approach and are more likely to beat you through the air and ground. Andrew Maxwell has been victim of the tip pass. I've seen two of his interceptions fall do to the tip pass and he's faced very capable pass defenses and deserves more credit. The guy has faced 4 top 31 pass defenses and he's just now starting to find a go to guy at receiver in Aaron Burbridge who should have another good game. If Michigan State gets their TE Dion Simms back I will also add a play on the money line. |
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10-20-12 | Nebraska -6.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
Nebraska -6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love Nebraska in this spot coming off a bye this team faces Northwestern a team that came into their building last year and won 28-25 when Nebraska was 17.5 point favorites. Now they get to return the favor in NW's home field which won't be much of a home field advantage. This game will be close to 50% Huskers fans because Northwestern just does not sell out and that will make this a neutral site type atmosphere and add in the fact that Nebraska has revenge and is off a bye and I really like the Huskers this weekend. Nebraska's key here is Taylor Martinez and the running game, but don't sleep on Martinez passing the ball. He had his best game against Northwestern last year 28/37 for 289 yards and 2 TD. The running game is deep for Nebraska with the healthy Rex Burkhead back and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah leading the nations 5th best running team. Nebraska is actually ranked 2nd from a yards per carry perspective. Now Northwestern built this team to stop the run and they are doing it ranked 32nd allowing just 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced nobody that can run the ball so that ranking is a little deceiving. The average rushing offense ypc team they have faced is 86th. When Northwestern sells out to stop the run Martinez has shown the capability to beat you deep and I think they are well on their way to doing that in this game. Martinez has improved as a passer completing 66% of his passes and has 12 TD to just 4 interceptions. It pays that he's had extra reps against Nebraska's first team defense. With the bye week their was a lot of reps for both the offense and defense against the 1st teams. That will dramatically help them in this game. Nebraska really struggles against mobile QB and that's what Northwestern has in Cain Kolter. Kolter really surprised an unprepared defense last year as Northwestern had three rushing TD's and 207 yards rushing while dominating the time of possession a year ago. I think the extra prep and the awareness of Northwestern's ability to run with the QB will make a huge difference. It also helps because Northwestern has lacked consistency in the passing game as they struggled in back to back games vs. Penn St and Minnesota so this idea that they have an explosive offense is a bit over rated as they haven't cracked 300 yards in the last two games. Northwestern's defense has played much better than anyone expected, but I'm not shocked they have faced some of the weaker offenses and Penn State showed some vulnerabilities they have. I look for Nebraska's WR Jamal Turner to have a huge game. Nebraska's offense is 15th in converting third downs this year converting 50% of them while Northwestern's defense is ranked 55th, but has faced an average offensive third down team ranked 90th and haven't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50. I normally don't like laying chalk like this but in the case of Nebraska counting on having plenty of fans in attendance I am very confident Nebraska will dominate this game from start to finish. |
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10-19-12 | Connecticut v. Syracuse -4 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Syracuse -4 2.2* play; Syr +3 U50 -130 4.5* play
Uconn has won all of the last 5 meetings between these two teams but they have been the home team for much of this series lately. The home team is actually 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings which gives Syracuse an advantage. Things to know: Both teams rely on their defense. Both are in the top 20 in ypc run defense and both are in the top 10 in sack %. Uconn likes to run the ball more than pass while Syracuse has been traditionally a pass first offense led by senior Ryan Nassib. Uconn: Uconn is off a crushing loss to Temple and once agai the issues was with their defense. QB Chandler Whitmer has been under pressure all year leading to 10 interceptions and tonight will be no different with Syracuse being 10th in sack%, but improving drastically when they are inside the Carrier Dome with a 13.33% sack %. On defense the Huskies have benefited largely on defense from facing teams that just do not have an aerial attack. Syracuse is 16th in yards per game passing and throw the ball 61% of the time. While Uconn has been good against the pass they have done it against an average passing offense ranked 79th. They did go on the road to play Western Michigan who is 26th in passing play % and they lost 24-30. Both teams should fall to the passing game because both teams are so good at stopping the run and that advantage immediately turns to Syracuse. Syracuse: At home their offense has been dangerous this year, but facing Uconn should provide a stiff task. Uconn is 8th in sack %, but then again Syracuse has protected Nassib at home allowing him to get sacked just 3.03% of his drop backs. He also has two of the most prolific receivers in Syracuse history in Marcus Sales and Alec Lemon. Lemon had 9 receptions and 157 yards in last years loss. The thing that has cost Syracuse a .500 or winning record has been mistakes and turnovers as well as an inconsistent running game. However, being back at home with more experience I |