Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -3 | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Bucs -3 -115 2.5% play |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Dolphins +4.5 v. 49ers | 17-33 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Dolphins +4.5 2.2% play |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 28 m | Show | |
Titans +4.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Jets +3 1.1% Free NFL Pick 82-53 Last 135 Free NFL Picks! Don't miss out on my MAX NFL POD - 87-49 L136 +180% |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Steelers v. Falcons | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Falcons pk 5.5% MAX POD |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Purdue +16.5 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Purdue +17 -120 2.5% play Purdue is a very under rated team in my opinion when you look at their schedule they could very easily be 10-2 instead of 8-4. Their loss against Penn State to open the season could have gone either way, and then their loss against Syracuse on the road on a busted coverage should have gone the other way. I think Purdue matches up well in the sense that their defensive strength is against the run. They rank 28th in epa run defense, and Michigan runs the ball 61% of the time. I don’t see Michigan really hucking the ball all over the field here. They just need to win and don’t need to be taking chances throwing the ball. On the flip side Purdue offers something that Michigan just doesn’t really see that often. A throwing competent offense. We saw Michigan struggle a little bit against Maryland who is a throw first team and plays good run defense. Purdue ranks 25th in success rate defense 21st in third down defense and should be able to slow Michigan down enough while I think the rest of this Purdue football team rallies around their QB Aidan McConnel who obviously has been through a lot in the past week losing his brother. I think this game will be much closer and much more interesting to watch. |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -3.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Tulane -3.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Fresno State +3.5 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD The weather should have no impact on this game, which is rare for Boise at this time of year, but excellent for Fresno State. Boise vs. top 50 offenses is 1-2, and their only win was against Fresno State without Jake Haener, and without Jake Haener Fresno is not a top 100 offense. They played 5 games without Haener went 2-3, and failed to score more than 21 points with the exception of their game against a horrible New Mexico team and turned the ball over 9 times in those games. Fresno also without their defensive captain Evan Williams in the first meeting and will return for this game. Fresno’s defense is a top unit they rank 35th in success rate, and their only weakness is defending the run, which BYU with a worse run defense recently stopped Boise. I think Fresno’s run defense will be pumped up for this one after giving up 300 yards to Boise. They did hold Taylen Green to 22 yards on 11 carries in the first game, and there is only more tape on Green at this point for Fresno to scheme a game plan. Fresno State without their defensive captain really held their own early in the game against Boise holding Boise in the red zone multiple times. This is going to be a close game and I would rather have the team with the better more experienced QB. Fresno State also has a significant advantage in special teams ranking 14th compared to 104th. Jeff Tedford also the better head coach here with experience in the MW Championship game. In fact Tedford 7-2 ATS as a road dog 2017-2019 when he was at Fresno and in 2018 they lost to Boise on the road and came back and beat them in OT on the road in the Championship game. Andy Avalos is still a very young head coach in just his second season and first time in a game this big. He is just 1-4 ATS in games where Boise is favored by less than a TD losing 4 outright. Boise has not been in this situation yet this year. They were a +2 dog twice, and went 1-1. In what is supposed to be a tight game Fresno has the advantage in a very key area. |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Kansas State +7.5 / Clemson -1.5 3.3% Teaser Kansas State had a 28-10 lead before going to their 3rd string QB who was a major drop off from Will Howard in the first meeting. This is the reason many are just blindly backing TCU, and I couldn’t argue, but I would have wanted it above 3 here. I think the game itself is a coin flip, but getting this very much important game up over the 3, and 7 I think just offers more value. TCU has a lot of pressure now that they are in the top 4. Kansas State is a well coached team and will have every chance to win this game. Clemson -1.5 Cheap price here for Clemson who the idea of not being motivated for an ACC Championship is a joke. Pittsburgh played Wake Forest in last year’s ACC Championship so Clemson has not won it since 2020. Clemson is 15-0 dating back to 2011 following a loss. They bounce back very well, and it’s the wrong time to face this top defense. Clemson’s statistical profile very similar to Notre Dame, a team that crushed and dominated North Carolina on their own field. North Carolina also lost to Georgia Tech and NC State who also have top 50 pass defenses in their last two games, Clemson ranks 23rd in sack %, 9th ine pa pass defense. Clemson offense is the weakness of their team. They need to establish the run to get things going. I don’t see a situation where Clemson is not moving the ball. North Carolina can’t get to the QB they rank 127th, they rank 120th in success rate defense, they rank 112th in ypp, they rank 98th in ypc allowed, and these ranks come against a very poor group of offenses. On average North Carolina has faced 75th ranked offense from a ypp perspective. Their just are not any excuses for how bad they have been. The bigger issue for Clemson is turnovers. In their last 5 games they have been – TO margin, and have lost the ball 15 times. They have faced 4 top turnover defenses in those 5 games and here North Carolina ranks 113th in % of defensive possessions ending in TO. |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +4 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Patriots +4 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Chargers v. Cardinals +3 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
Cardinals +3 2.4% play |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Jaguars +3.5 1.1% play |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bucs -3 v. Browns | 17-23 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucs -3 -120 3.5% play |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Titans +7.5 / Jets -1 3.3% teaser |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Notre Dame +5 v. USC | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +5 3.3% play I like the Irish here and think they match up very well against USC who is very terrible on first down defense. What does that mean? It means Notre Dame should set themselves up in 3rd and short. They should be able to run the ball as USC ranks 120th in epa run defense. This game reminds me of the game against North Carolina earlier in the year, and side by side North Carolina and USC have a ton of similarities. Notre Dame won that game easily on the road. USC has been living on the turnover game, while we benefited last week it was yet again the defense coming through with some key turnovers. However, Notre Dame top 50 in turnovers per possession. This game reminds me of the Oregon State game. Oregon State top defense, very good run offense, not a good QB Oregon State lost 14-17, but really dominated that game, and should have won. Side by side Notre Dame slightly better than Oregon State. Oregon State was a +3.5 dog in that game. I think Notre Dame is live here and the line is a bit inflated given a college football spot is up for grabs. Think this will be a close game and Notre Dame will be motivated to play spoiler here. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Southern Miss -3 v. UL-Monroe | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Southern Miss -3 3.3% play Southern Miss is hunting for their 6th win to get bowl eligible, while LA Monroe has 7 losses and won’t be going bowling. You can’t blindly back these, but this is one that I like. I think we are getting some value, because if you just look at recent results, Southern Miss off 3 losses, including a big loss to Georgia State, while Monroe beat Georgia State, but they were -200 yards in that game. Southern Miss other losses came to P5 opponent, 9-1 Coastal, 8-3 Liberty, 9-2 Troy, and 9-2 South Alabama. Monroe sits with 4 wins total and is the worst team Southern Miss has faced. Southern Miss defense is a bit under appreciated and they’ll be the best unit in this game. They rank 10th in sack %, and will get after Louisiana Monroe’s 121st rank offensive line in pass protection. Southern Miss also top 50 in run defense, and Louisiana Monroe 107th in ypc. Monroe is 1-6 vs. top 60 run defenses this season. Southern Miss also has a top 50 pass defense as they rank 49th in epa pass defense so it could be a long day for Monroe here who has nothing to play for but spoiler. Southern Miss also enjoys an edge in special teams where they rank 33rd compared to Monroe’s 130th ranking. Those will be hidden yards and points. Southern Miss must take care of the ball they rank 127th in to%, but Monroe ranks 123rd in forcing them. In Southern Misses losses they are averaging 3+ turnovers. Monroe has not forced 3 TO’s in a single game this year and since moving to Trey Lowe at QB, Southern Miss only 1 TO. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Iowa State +10 v. TCU | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
Iowa State +10 3.3% play I don't think TCU i really looking ahead to the Big 12 Championship, and this game does have meaning if they want to get to the college football playoff, but this is Iowa State's bowl game. Matt Campbell does not really coach to lose regardless of what is on the line, and he is a great coach in the under dog role. TCU has played in 8 games this season that were decided by 10 points or fewer. Iowa State obviously struggles on offense, but their defense holds them in games. It's a top 10 unit, and their 7 losses, 6 of them have come by a TD or less. I see much of the same in this game, with the added preasure that TCU is feeling here expect Iowa State to be a live dog. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -3 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -3 -115 4% play Wisconsin not having their typical season, but Jim Leonard has a chance to win the Battle of the Axe game and secure the HC job. This Wisconsin team has struggled on the road this season going just 2-3, and suddenly their 1 point escape at Nebraska looks a bit better as Nebraska upset Iowa on the road last night. Wisconsin has won games when they win the passing game. Graham Mertz has had a decent season 19-9 TD to INT ratio, but 12-2 in Wisconsin’s wins. He has to have a good game here, and I believe he will against a tough defense. While Minnesota is defense has been stout, I think there is a bit of noise in their #’s. When you look at their top 25 run defense it has faced an average epa run offense ranking 100th. Their 59th epa pass defense has faced an average 88.6 pass offense. Their defense lacks an ability to get pressure on the QB ranking 87th in sack rate, but even worse on the road ranking 109th with a 3.94% sack rate and they rank 119th on passing down sack rate. For Minnesota’s offense they are completely one dimensional running nearly 70% of the time. They are very good at running the ball, but Wisconsin is 25th in 1st down defense, they are 3rd against the run in ypc, and 7th in epa. This is a solid run defense, and they are even better at home. Minnesota’s rushing attack is -1.2 ypc on the road vs. home, and their run defense is -1.04 ypc on the road and home. Really easy to handicap Minnesota football their 4 losses have been against top 50 run defenses. Purdue ranked 48th, Illinois ranked 12th, Penn State 16th, and Iowa 8th. Wisconsin is the best of the bunch, and playing at home with motivation for Jim Leonard to retain the job and get the Axe back. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Marshall | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Georgia STate +7 -120 2.5% play Georgia State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, a role they are more than fine playing in. They’ll make the trip to Marshall for the first time, and with 7 losses have nothing to play for, but I would argue their senior leadership on offense and defense have something to play for, their LAST GAME. This was a team that really was supposed to be better, and had leads in games that proved that, last week they were up 20 vs. James Madison for instance, they also held a big lead against Coastal Carolina. Marshall’s offense is not good enough to mount any type of comeback if we see something similar here today. Marshall’s offense is build on the run 59% of their plays are run plays. They’ll face Georgia State who is very good against the run ranking 50th epa run defense. Marshall when playing a top run defense is just 2-3 averaging 17ppg, and their two wins were more to do with the fact that they were +5 to margin. Actually, Marshall +13 to margin in their wins -5 in their losses. Georgia State ranks 55th in % of possessions ending in a OT, and on defense rank 8th at forcing them. Marshall’s defense has been the story for this team as they rank 14th in ypp, 11th in ypc and they have overcome a historically bad offense for Marshall ranking 101st n ypp, 1026th in epa passing offense 120th in epa run offense. Georgia State is 3-1 vs. teams with bad offenses this year. Georgia State defense is more than capable of holding their own in this game. Georgia State’s offense is going to throw a running QB at them, which is something they really haven’t seen this year. They faced Lafayette’s up-tempo offense with somewhat of a running QB and lost 13-23, while the QB ran for 45 yards. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas -3.5 v. Missouri | 27-29 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Arkansas -3.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Tulane +1 v. Cincinnati | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show | |
Tulane +1.5 3.3% play The winner will host the AAC Championship Game. Two things beat Tulane this year. Giving up a ton of rushing yards, and turning the ball over. Cincinnati really struggles running the ball this year 89th in ypc, 95th in EPA and have struggled more of late. They also could be without their starting QB who is ? for this game and if he does play won’t be 100%. Tulane is 4-0 on the road this year with a very impressive win at Kansas State on their resume, which they should be able to draw confidence from to end Cinci’s 32 game home streak. Last year’s Cinci team was so much better than this year according to the #’s, and it was a 14-12 game with Tulane at the half. Tulane had 5 turnovers in the game, and I don’t really anticipate that happening this year as they rank 19th in TO%, and Cinci really hasn’t forced turnover like last year as they lost two starting NFL CB’s. Cinci’s offense really could be worse they have faced an average 96.2 ypp offense, and only 2 top 75 ypp defense, with one of them being Miami Ohio. The other one was UCF who they lost 21-25 to. At the end of the day I think Tulane is more balanced team especially on offense as they rank 35th in ypc, and 23rd in QB rating. They rank 42nd in success rate compared to Cinci 88th ranking, and that’s against a tougher group of success rate defenses. Their red zone TD% is +19.19% compared to Cinci -6.98. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Baylor +8.5 v. Texas | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 48 m | Show | |
Baylor +8.5 2.2% play Texas is just 2-4 this season off a straight up win, and I don’t get the love for them in this spot or on the season. Texas has to run the ball to win the game and run it well to win by margin. They have 6ypc in wins and 3.95 in their losses, and the same was true last year. Baylor is a good run defense ranking 41st in epa run defense. Texas just 2-2 vs. top 50 run defenses, one was a win over G5 UTSA, and the other a 3 point win at home to Iowa State. Texas could win, and get a Kansas State loss and get into the conference championship, but if anything that’s a distraction for this team, while Baylor will be plenty motivated to play spoiler to their in state rival. Baylor is 2-3 vs. top rushing attacks, but they have 1 loss by 6 OT to BYU at elevation earlier in the year. They lost by 1 to TCU, and 28 to Kansas State. Could very easily be 4-1. This has been a good road team all year long +6 TO margin on the road, which makes sense to why they’ve played well. I think they can hang around in this one as Baylor also has a top pass defense ranking 49th, and Ewers has yet to show that he is any type of threat. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-33 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5% MAX NFL POD Short week definitely is an edge for the more experienced head coach, and Bill Bellechick already admitted that he was preparing for the Vikings during the bye before the Jets game, which I guess makes sense since he's very much familiar with my Jets. Vikings have some injury issues as they lose their LT to another concussion, the secondary is banged up and could be exposed here against the Patriots who rank #4 in explosive passing offense. Patriots have a big edge in special teams and have a top 5 pass defense. Vikings vs. top 10 pass defenses this season are 1-2 losing to Cowboys and Eagles, but their one win was against the Bills who they should have lost to last week. Kirk Cousins typically also struggles when he's out of his routine, and this is playing at night + on Thanksgiving.
|
|||||||
11-22-22 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
Ball State +3 -120 3% play These are two even teams on paper, and both playing for a lot tonight. The winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser goes to 7 losses. Ball STate is the better team against hte better competition. Their YPP differnetial is -0.2 vs. ypp diff of -0.07, while Miami Ohio is -0.5 vs. -0.59. Miami Ohio 1-2 at home in the MAC, while Ball State is 2-1 on the road, and played right with Toledo recently. I think this will be a close game. 4 of Ball States losses have been against teams who have top 50 offenses, while Miami Ohio is 113th in ypp vs. an average opponent of 85.3. Ball State also -7 to margin in their losses +2 in their wins, and Miami OHio's defense really doesn't force turnovers they are 86th in that category and are actually -2 TO margin at home. Ball State is a pass first offense, and Miami Ohio's defensive strength is stopping the run. Red Zone play here will also be important and Miami OHio has really struggled on offense in that category. I think Ball State should have a shot to win this game, but it will be close. buying the half poitn is well worht the 10-15 cents you will pay here given the importance of this game and the low total of 45. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Vikings | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Cowboys -1.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 3 m | Show | |
Jets +3.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Commanders v. Texans +3 | 23-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Texans +3.5 -120 by 1/2 point for 20 cents. 2.5 %play |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Eagles v. Colts +7 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
Colts +7 5.5% MAX POD |
|||||||
11-19-22 | San Jose State v. Utah State -1 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 45 h 26 m | Show | |
Utah State -1 2.2% play Two teams heading in opposite directions right now. Utah State has Boise State on deck and this is the game they have circled to win and get bowl eligible and I think they’ll do it. San Jose State looks like they can’t attack the weakness of this Utah State defense, which is their run defense as they rank 113th in rushing ypc, while pass defense ranks 14th, and San Jose State will look to pass the ball 60% of the time, but it will be tough sledding against Utah State in well below freezing conditions for the kids from California. I think the team on the field that wants this one more is clearly going to be Utah State and it will make all the difference in the world in a tight game. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | USC -1.5 v. UCLA | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
USC -2 3.3% PLAY Seems like almost everyone is on UCLA or giving out UCLA. I understand they have an edge running the ball and USC just lost Travis Dye, but this UCLA team is not the typical team that beats Lincoln Riley. Typically the team that beats Lincoln Riley has a dominant defense, and UCLA rnaks 107th in success rate defense, 81st in epa pass, 86th in epa run. I understand USC is not any better on defense, but I think their offense more than makes up for it here. USC offensive stats are elite and that has come without Jordan Addiosn and Mario Williams in some games, boht return here at WR, which is where the UCLA defense is very questionable. UCLA defensive front also ranks 68th in sack %, which just is not good enough to get to Caleb Williams. USC on the other hand ranks 19th, and could cause TO that is key in this game. USC is also the better third down team, better red zone team, better TO margin team, and special teams. There is no home field advantage here and should be 50-50 for both teams. USC will keep their hopes at a playoff birth alive. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Arkansas +3 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD Arkansas really needs a win here to make sure they get to a bowl game and they will be getting healthy just in time with KJ Jefferson taking all the reps in practice, RT Dalton Wagner back after missing the LSU game as well as one of the leaders of the defense in Myles Slusher. Ole Miss in a dream crushing spot here after losing to Alabama they also lost the ability to win the SEC West and have the Egg Bowl on Friday on deck. This is a tough situation for Ole Miss going on the road to play at Arkansas at night. Arkansas has faced the tougher schedule, and a lot of their statistics are compressed with the health of KJ Jefferson. This was a 1 point loss at Ole Miss last year for Arkansas as they rushed for 350 yards, and remember that game. KJ Jefferson is from the state of Mississippi and unfortunately could not play against Miss State. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss +8 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Southern Miss +7.5 2.2% play / Southern Miss +255 0.2% bonus I'm not buying into South Alabama here as an 8-2 team. Other than UCLA and Troy who they both lost to they have not played a team with a winning record. Southern Miss is 5-5 fighting for a bowl game on Senior Day at The Rock. Speaking of a rock, the Southern Miss defense is a rock, ranking top 50 in many categories, they are good agaisnt the run ranking 29th in epa, and good agaisnt the pass ranking 37th in epa, and rank 15th in success rate. Actually they have the better defense from a success rate perspective and against a tougher schedule. South Alabama's offense looks better than it really is. The two times they stepped up to play a defense similar to Southern Miss caliber they won at Lafayette 20-17, no big deal Southern Miss beat Lafayete 39-24 at home, and they put up 6 points in a loss to Troy at home. South Alabama has really struggled passing the ball on the road and they'll be going up agaisnt the #9 pass rush form Southern Miss. South Alabama could sell this as a game that matters to get into the mix in the Sun Belt, but the reality is Troy is going to be 2+TD favorites in each of their last two games. South Alabama's defense is legit no doubt about it, but the spread is 7.5 points for a reason. I think at home this team can hang tough and be in this game bc of thier defense. It's a lot of points for a top 50 defense at home fighting for bowl eligibility so I'll take the +7.5 and put a bit on that ML at +255 |
|||||||
11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 28 m | Show | |
Iowa +8.5 /Baylor +8.5 3.3% Teaser of the week. Baylor – Dave Aranda 5-0 ATS as a dog vs. top 15 teams. I just don’t want to fade TCU who only has to win this game on the regular spread, but getting Baylor up over 3 and 7 points is really attractive. Baylor also has massive revenge it was a 2 point loss at TCU that arguably kept them out of the college football playoff, and now they’ll get to play spoiler here for TCU who has all the pressure. We have seen these teams go down before when they are feeling the pressure. There is a reason a 10-0 team is just a 2.5 point favorite on the road against a 6-4 team. Iowa – The total here is 32.5 points. I honestly don’t know who will win this game, but it should be by one possession either way. Iowa in the dog role is exactly what we like to see and Hawkeyes for whatever reason have owned Minnesota, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Think the value here on the teaser is great. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Navy +16.5 v. Central Florida | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
Navy +16.5 3.3% play Nobody knows about running the ball and stopping the run more than a service academy. They also play in a lot of tight games because they shorten the game with the clock always going and being the slowest in the nation in pace. When we get another team on the other side that also runs the ball >55% of the time it means it’s really hard to beat a service academy by more than 2TD’s. In fact since 2005 Service Academy’s when catching 14 or more points since 2005 are 41-22-2 ATS. Since 2018 they have lost 23 times against a team that runs the ball more than 55% of the time. Only 2 occasions out of those 23 games did they lose by 17 or more. The rest of the 21 losses were all close coming by an average of 7.09 ppg. Navy has drastically improved this year, and they are getting it done by being excellent at stopping the run ranking 14th in epa, and I think they have an excellent chance to stay within this number on Saturday at the Bounce House. This is an early 11am kickoff, and that is the kickoff time I’d prefer backing a service academy. Meanwhile UCF is off their biggest win of the season a road win at Tulane. UCF got beat by Navy last year as a 14.5 point favorite, and Navy’s #’s are actually better this year as far as their running game 64th in ypc vs. last year’s 83rd, and UCF’s run defense is worst this year 84th, vs. last year’s 71st ranking. On the flip side UCF’s rushing offense about the same 12th this year vs. 19th last year, but Navy has improved from 57th to 16th. They outgained UCF on the ground a season ago 348 to 148, and while I’m not calling for a similar mismatch this should be a closely contested game. UCF is 99th in third down defense to boot, and Navy has a QB that’s capable of hitting a couple of explosive plays down field. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Tulane -3.5 2.2% play Tulane can still get to the conference title game if they win out. I don’t see a let down spot here at all hosting SMU as the solo game Thursday night in college football. They have to take care of business on a short week and having back to back home games compared to back to back road games for SMU is a huge advantage. SMU has not been very good on the road this year, and SMU 0-3 vs. top 50 defenses, 0-4 vs. top 50 pass defenses, and Tulane has both, including a top 50 EPA run defense, which should give SMU some issues. SMU needs to run the ball to set up the pass as they average 5.26ypc in their wins and just 3.18 in their losses. They also convert 55% of their third downs in their wins and only 36% in their losses. Tulane has the #15 third down defense. Tulane is 4-1 vs. top 50 offenses, and are the better team here. They also have an edge on the coaching staff which should benefit them in the short week with Fritz over Lashlee. I think Tulane is poised to bounce back from the loss against UCF, and win big on Thursday night. I don’t worry about the hook here as much with a total in the 60’s. SMU’s defense is also one of the worst defenses so expect Tulane to be able to really control this game throughout. Tulane faces 120th ranked epa run defense, and 85th ranked epa pass defense. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Commanders +11 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Colts +4.5 v. Raiders | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
Colts +4.5 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Browns +3.5 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-12-22 | California +14 v. Oregon State | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
California +14 5.5% NCAAF POD There is a lot to like getting double digits here. First of all Oregon state is a one dimensional offense that relies heavily on the running game, and their offense runs at an extremely slow pace 128th in seconds per play in the country. To win by double digits they will have to have a significant advantage, but I don't see that as the case as Cal ranks 49th in rushing defense and that has come against a 53rd ranked ypc offense on average. So.. Oregon State is going to have to force turnovers, but they rank 83rd in % of opponent possessions ending in a TO, while Cal ranks 12th in turning the ball over. Cal given up on their season? No, Cal has been fighting hard to get to bowl and played well against USC and Oregon their last two games. Cal also has played in tight games with Oregon State each of the last 3 seasons losing 2 by 4 points, and winning 39-25 last year. I think their offense can have some success here particularly running the ball against Oregon State who ranks 106th in epa run defense. Cal's Jack Plummer was the starting QB a season ago at Purdue to open the year up and had one of his best games against Oregon State. Cal's offense has been stopped because their offensive line has struggled at times, but Oregon State's defensive line ranks 121st in sack %, and 124th in power success rate. Justin Wilcox also 16-5 ATS as a road dog. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -4 | 36-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
Wake Forest -4 2.2% play A little value here on Wake when you consider they just played 2 of the best 3 defenses in the ACC and turned the ball over 11 times both games on the road now they go back home at night with a chance to play spoiler to North Carolina's hype. North Carolina's wins on the road in conference have come against Miami, Duke and Virginia all by 3. Giving up lost of points and yards. I think Wake Forest will be able to do whatever they want here as North Carolina ranks 120th in sack %, 103rd in third down defense, 112th at forcing turnovers, 111th in epa run defense 103rd in epa pass defense. Drake Maye has been spectacular, and I thnk he'll get plenty of yards here, but I think Wake wins this by a TD. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Texas Tech -3.5 3.3% play Kansas is bowl eligible so I’m thinking a bit of a let down here against Texas Tech as Kansas was seen celebrating with their win against Oklahoma State who played without many of their players. Kansas defensively really struggles vs fast paced teams. They gave up and lost to Oklahoma 42-52, against TCU 31-38. Texas Tech is the #2 pace team in the country, and the best defense of those 3 teams. I think Tech will have success offensively as they’re facing Kansas who ranks 100th in qb defense and 110th epa pass defense and 121st in success rate. Texas Tech’s defense has been solid against the run, which is what Kansas wants to do here ranking 46th in epa run defense. Their pass defense also in the top 50 in epa. If you can believe it this is the best defense that Kansas has played all year form an EPA perspective. Baylor ranked 30th in epa run defense against an average opponent offense ranking 60th. Tech ranks 46th, but vs. an average offense ranking 46th, and Baylor’s pass defense ranked 53rd in epa against an average opponent ranking 59th. Tech ranks 42nd vs. an average opponent ranking 40th. Tech is also 23rd in success rate defense against an average SR offense ranking 41st. This is a team hungry for a win at home where they are 3-1, and I expect one of their best performances. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5 | 45-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
Miss State +16.5 3.3% play Leach is 16-7 ATS as a double digit dog, and this is a let down game for Georgia after back to back huge victories over Florida and then #1 Tennessee last week. Miss State 5-0 at home 1-3 on the road. Georgia’s defense not as good as a season ago, but after last weeks’ big time win against Tennessee they are getting credit for being that good. This Georgia team does not get a pass rush, which is a necessity against Miss State’s pass first scheme. The other weakness for this Georgia team is their TO margin, which if you want to win big on the road you are going to need to create some turnovers especially when you play at a slow pace 112th in the country. This is only Georgia’s 3rd road game and the last time they faced a good pass defense on the road they struggled to win at Missouri. Miss State ranks 11th in epa pass defense, 35th in overall success rate defense, and should have more success on offense than Missouri had. This is the worst spot of the year for Georgia, and we are getting well over 2 TD’s. Lastly, an inexperienced Will Rogers torched this Georgia defense in 2020 on the road throwing for 336 yards on 41-52. He’s much better now and Miss State has one of the more under appreciated home field advantages. I see Georgia winning a very close game. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | South Carolina +8.5 v. Florida | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play I don’t see how Florida is this much better than South Carolina here. Florida looked really impressive against the Aggies last week, but the flu hit Texas A&M hard and they were much less than 100%. I think that may be inflating this number just a tad. The key for South Carolina success has always ben the ability to establish their running game. South Carolina should be able to establish the run here as Florida ranks 119th in ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense. Not that South Carolina has a great running game, but when they rush for over 100 yards this season they are 5-0 this season and 10-1 dating back to last year. It will also help the offense that Florida’s pass defense is no better and they rank 100th at QB sack %. Rattle rhas not been great, but this is one of his easier tasks thus far facing a defense that ranks 118th in success rate, and 113th in yards per play. Reading the tea leaves I believe and it sounds like the team catalyst MarShawn Lloyd will return at RB. He practiced this week, and was able to rest the “deep bruise” by not playing against Vanderbilt. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
Louisville +7 2.2% play This was a battle last year that Clemson found to win late. There really isn’t anything different with this years Clemson team vs. last year’s Clemson team. Maybe the defense is worse? They have no confidence at QB, and I believe that will continue here. Louisville, a far better defense than a season ago, and playing with a ton of confidence right now. They rank 32nd in ypc defense, and 25th in EPA run defense, and that has come against 57th ranked run defense. Clemson ranks 44th, vs average opponent 81, and Notre Dame with a one dimensional attack absolutely dominated them a week ago. Louisville can get to the QB here ranking 3rd in sack %, and #1 in forcing turnovers per possession in the country. IF Clemson can’t run for 200 yards I’m not sure how they are supposed tow in by a TD here. This will be a tightly contested game that MIcale Cunningham and this Louisville team will have every chance to win. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | SMU v. South Florida +17.5 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
South Florida +17.5 2.2% play We backed Houston last week against this SMU team, and while they outgained SMu 710 to 642, they gave up 77 points and lost by 14. Now SMU goes on the road to face South Florida who just fired their head coach, a 1 win South Florida team, and SMU has a major look ahead to Tulane next Thursday night. South Florida also has a match up advantage here as they rank 22nd in ypc rushing offense, run the ball 56% of the time, and are 105th in pace going up against SMU who is 121st in ypc defense, 121st in epa run defense. I think the approach is to slow this game down, and not turn the ball over. Also expect a locker room morale boost, buy low situation, and some new scheme that SMU has not seen yet that could allow South Florida to cover this game. South Florida played within this number against several better teams including Florida, Cincinnati, and Tulane. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 36 h 24 m | Show | |
Arkansas +3.5 3.3% play I’ve given Arkansas out as a dog a few times now since Sam Pittman took over and they have rarely let me down. KJ Jefferson is probable for this game, and I don’t think he will have issues with pain during the game. This is a huge rivalry game and the Battle of the Golden Boot. LSU will be going for a win to clinch the SEC West as long as Alabama beats Ole Miss, but I think they are going to have their hands full with Arkansas. LSU coming off a massive upset of Alabama at home, and I just think they are in a rough spot here playing in just their 3rd road game overall. Arkansas has a top 50 pass rush, and that’s the one area that LSU has struggled, protecting the QB ranking 115th in sack % allowed. They faced a top 50 pass rush on the road in Auburn and were trailing 17-0 late in the second before Auburn blew that game and could not score in the second half. Arkansas is a far better team, and has a far better offense that can run and pass the ball. This should keep the LSU defense on its toes here, especially the running game. Arkansas run 61% of the time, and have mobile QB. LSU has given up 56 yards rushing on only 10 carries to Hendon Hooker, and 109 vs. Anthony Richardson on only 9 carries. KJ Jefferson is also a capable passer with a top 25 EPA pass offense. Arkansas is also desperate for a win having lost to Liberty in their last game they need a win to lock up a spot in a bowl game. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Purdue +7 v. Illinois | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Purdue +7 -120 3% play Illinois played two teams who were pass first offenses, that also could stop the run on defense, and they lost both of those games. Losing on the road to Indiana and at home to Michigan State a week ago. Purdue features an epa run defense that ranks 17th, while they pass the ball over 60% of the time. Illinois pass defense ranks 4th in epa, but a look at the passing offenses they have faced reveals an ugly truth. On average they have faced a 86.75 passing rank. I think we are getting Purdue at a great price here mostly because they are off two losses and a 24-3 throttling against Iowa, but they were throwing in 30mph winds, a game that clearly benefitted Iowa and not Purdue. Today’s forecast shows 10mph winds, with no precipitation and Purdue’s offense should have a better go of it. There is a lot on the line here Illinois leads all at 4-2 in the Big Ten West, and a 4 way tie behind them. Purdue needs a tie breaker win with Illinois to have a chance. This is a Big Ten elimination game for Purdue and I expect their best effort. Jeff Brohm has been outstanding as an away dog throughout his career and this is the type of spot I’d like to back him. They’ve been a good road team this year winning at Minnesota and Maryland as a dog, should have beaten Syracuse earlier in the year, and failed at Wisconsin a team that has just owned Jeff Brohm. |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Tulsa +7 v. Memphis | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
I think Tulsa is the more desperate team for a win, and there is nothing special about this Memphis team. We backed Memphis last week against UCF and it was a great match up for their pass first scheme, but there were multiple coaching decision in that game that not only cost Memphis the game, but the cover. Tulsa’s head coach Phillip Montgomery in my opinion is the better head coach and I think he’ll have his team ready to make a run for a bowl game much like last year when they won 3 straight to get to a bowl. Montgomery is 22-8 ATS at Tulsa as an away dog, and over the last 3 years he is 15-7 ATS vs. conference opponents, 11-4 ATS off a straight loss. Meanwhile Memphis under Ryan Silverfield just 3-10 ATS as a home favorite at Memphis, 6-15 ATS vs. conference, and 5-7 ATS following a loss. The match up really comes down to Davis Brin playing. He injured his non-throwing shoulder, but has been practicing with so much on the line I would be a little surprised to see him not play, but that will just mean the rest of the team steps up. Montgomery, “We have to scratch and claw and find a way to win.” This team has not given up they have confidence form last year. I think the offense has success whomever is out there at QB as Memphis is 101st in epa pass defense, 119th in sack %, which should allow the young Tulsa offensive line to have more success. Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass, which is what Memphis wants to do, and I highly doubt they’ll run the ball here more tonight. Take out sacks, and their QB Hennigan is their leading rusher. They played a very physical game against UCF last week. Tulsa also the team that takes care of the ball better. Memphis ranks 118th in % of possessions ending in a TO, while Tulsa ranks 2nd. Tulsa also has an edge in red zone TD percentage and I feel like 7 points is just too much for a team that is very motivated. I think the short week benefits the better coach and that coach is Montgomery. |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Kent State -2 v. Bowling Green | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Kent State -2 2.2% play Let’s talk strength of schedule. Kent State’s road games this year @ Toledo best team in the MAC, @Georgia, @Washignton, @Oklahoma, and at Miami Ohio (better statistically than Bowling Green). Bowling Green at 5-4 wins here and they get to a bowl game for the first time in 7 years, but they do have another opportunity on deck with Ohio, while Kent State at 3-6 does not. This is the game for Kent State, because they need to start getting wins, and looking at Bowling Green’s resume it’s not that impressive. Their wins have been against three 3 win teams in the MAC, a 1-9 Akron team, and a down Marshall team that has a horrible offense and they still gave up 31 points and were +3 TO margin and only won that game by 3. Kent State surely has a match up advantage with their running game which ranks 51st in ypc, and 42nd in epa going up against Bowling Green’s 99th ranked run defense and 92nd in epa. Bowling Green struggled against the two run first fast paced teams they faced this year giving up 45 and 31 points. The Bowling Green’s defensive strength does not align here as they are excellent vs. the pass ranking 43rd in epa, and have a 12th ranked pass rush, but Kent State fairly good considering the level competition they have faced ranking 64th in sack % allowed, and again Kent State will want to run the ball here, and should have some success. They also have an edge on special teams ranking 26th vs. 79th, and they haven’t turned the ball over much ranking 27th in % of possessions ending in a TO. I’ll take the team that is more desperate for a win that has the extra day of preparation. Sean Lewis is a good coach, and I expect they’ll get a big win here tonight. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Saints +1.5 2.2% play |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Cardinals -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Commanders +3.5 -115 4% play |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Panthers +7 v. Bengals | 21-42 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Panthers +7.5 -115 3% play |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 56 m | Show | |
Clemson -3.5 3.3% play |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Houston +3.5 v. SMU | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
Houston +3.5 2.2% play Tons of tickets and money on SMU bringing this up over the key # of 3. I actually think Houston is the better team, and they have played in tons of close games already. They really don’t have a bad loss on their schedule, and while their opponents have an average -0.4 ypp, that’s distorted by South Florida’s -1.7, as well as the fact that 6 of their 8 opponents had tough schedules of + opponent yards per play, while SMU who on the surface has faced an average oppy pp +0.62, much tougher than Houston, but those opponents on average have had a very weak schedule. I was not impressed with SMU vs. Cinci, where we got a very lucky back door cover. I think these teams are very similar pass first offenses, with veteran QB’s, but Clayton Tune has been very good on the road, and adds the running dynamic that Mordedai does not. Mordecai also more turnover prone, and coming back from an injury. Houston’s pass defense seems to also be better ranking 36th in epa compared to 83rd for SMU, and they’re better on third downs, and have a slightly better rushing offense, but far better run defense as SMU ranks 124th in EPA run defense to Houston’s 76th ranking. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Tennessee +8.5 v. Georgia | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 58 m | Show | |
Tenn +8 3.3% play It’s clear that Tennessee’s defense has improved from last year, and Georgia’s defense has taken a small step back that has gone really unnoticed to this point. Josh Heupel’s offenses have had success against Kirby Smart’s defenses in the past putting up 27 points in 2016 at Missouri, and 28 in 2017, and while Tennessee only scored 17 that was a Georgia defense that was one of the best in the past 25 years. Georgia’s pass defense will be the key here they rank 3rd, but they have faced an average opponent pass offense ranking 83rd. They are 119th in sack % and just lost their leading sack player for the season. Kent State, which runs a similar up tempo offense that relies on spacing had a lot of success against Georgia and it was a 32-22 game with 6 minutes to play. Alabama in the SEC Championship caught Georgia off guard and ran up-tempo and put 41 points on the defense. I think Tennessee’s offense has taken the next step under Heupel and I think they have another big day on offense. Defensively Tennessee has been a rock against the run, which is exactly what Georgia typically relies on. Stetson Bennett is not the type of guy going to win you the game, and he doesn’t have the receiving threats at WR he had last year. Most of their offense comes via the TE group. Tennessee got a little healthier last week in the secondary and it definitely showed as they had their best defensive performance of the season against a very good Kentucky offense behind Will Levis, who was running a top 25 passing offense. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game, and I feel like even though public money is on Tennessee we will see them cover here and possibly shock Georgia and win outright. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 57 m | Show |
Memphis +3.5 5.5 % NCAAF POD Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game. I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage. UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next. I think Memphis, a team with a very good passing game will be able to do that this week. Memphis also a very good home team. They lost back to back on the road to Tulane and East Carolina. They had a 17-0 lead against East Carolina, and lost in OT, the same team that beat UCF 35-13. Against Tulane they were -4 TO margin and gave up a 90 yard punt return. Aside from the spot that favors Memphis here. I actually like their match up as they are very similar to East Carolina. A pass first offense with a very good QB, and a defensive strength against the run. Memphis 28th in ypc defense, 27th in epa. They also have a top 30 special teams unit just like East Carolina. UCF could be without Plumlee in this game although I personally hope he starts coming off the concussion I don’t think he’ll be 100%, and I’ve said it before he’s a one dimensional QB, and Memphis has shown they can stop the run. They’ll also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-7 on the road last year. They played that game without Seth Henigan, and had 4 turnovers. UCF’s defense ranks 128th in forcing turnovers this season. Memphis has been a very good team at home dating back to last year playing in a lot of tight games. I think this one goes down to the wire. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Georgia Tech +3 v. Virginia Tech | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 28 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech + 3.5 3.3% Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule with Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF in their non-conference compared to Virginia Tech’s Old Dominion, and West Virginia. All 7 of Georgia Tech’s opponents are + in yards per play differential for an average +0.91, while Virginia Tech’s opponents are on average -.31. With that said the statistical profile is not that different and I think Georgia Tech missing Jeff Simms in some games has been a big deal. Simms was a full participant at practice and will play in this game and will be a huge difference maker as a mobile QB. Virginia Tech has not faced a mobile QB all year long. Simms had 60 rushing yards a season ago in this game. Blacksburg’s home field advantage when it’s not a night game is bit less. This team also already has lost to West Virginia at home (not a good road team) by 23 points, and Miami. They beat Boston College 27-10, but BC just got beat by Uconn last week and has been having a dreadful season. Georgia Tech has beaten two decent teams in Duke and Pitt and if Simms played against Virginia they likely would have beaten them. Georgia Tech has the better defense in my opinion due to strength of schedule, and their EPA #’s back that up. Taking garbage time out Georgia Tech’s EPA pass defense ranks 27th, and their EPA run defense ranks 31st, while Virginia Tech ranks 63rd and 65th, and both have come against worse strength of schedule. Virginia Tech is 0-3 the last 2 years when facing a team with a top 50 epa pass defense and epa run defense, and if a team has a top epa pass or epa run defense they have gone 2-10. Georgia Tech has also taken better care of the ball ranking 6th in offensive turnover %, and their defense ranks 11th, while Virginia Tech ranks 66th and 120th. With rain in the forecast and what looks like a defensive battle turnovers are going to play a key role. The dog is 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Iowa +4 v. Purdue | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 38 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa +4.5 2.2% play The weather is definitely not favoring Purdue in this one with 23mph winds, and 40 mph gusts and a 40% chance of rain for a pass first offense. Iowa has struggled against Jeff Brohm who is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS, but the average spread in those 5 meetings have been Iowa -7, and now Iowa is the dog of greater than a field goal. This is the role I love to have Iowa in. Iowa has a top 10 pass defense, and are able to force turnovers ranking 16th in defensive possessions ending in a TO, while Purdue ranks 131st in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO. With the weather for this game it just falls into the hands of what Iowa wants to do. Purdue also just 11-15 vs. top 50 pass defenses since 2018, while Iowa is 9-5 vs. pass first offenses since 2018. Only 1 of those games did they lose by more than 4 points. Iowa also the better ypp differential if you can believe it they are +0.2 vs. an average opponent diff of +0.62, while Purdue is -0.6 vs. an average opponent +0.5. Purdue’s defense also very banged up, but this should be a low scoring defensive game that Iowa just waits for Purdue to make a mistake. I’ll take the Hawkeyes in this one as the road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Florida v. Texas A&M -3 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 32 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -3 3.3% play This is a huge must win game for the Aggies if they want to get to a bowl game. This is only Florida’s second true road game of the season and they have lost their last 5 SEC road games. I think the Aggies found something in their 5* freshman QB who had 338 passing yards against Ole Miss last week in their 28-31 loss. He should have more success this week against Florida, and possibly even more as Florida’s defense is worse than Ole Miss. Florida ranks 119th in epa run defense, 98th in epa pass defense, 131st in 3rd down defense, 95th in sack %. This is another game for A&M’s offense to get right, while the Aggies defense has struggled themselves they have shown stretches of dominance, and overall rank 60th in ypp allowed compared to Florida’s 116th ranking. So. I’ll take the better defense at home against a Florida offense that is one dimensional. Ole Miss was a top 50 run offense and top 50 pass offense, while Florida ranks 112th in QB rating, 102nd in epa passing offense. I think the Aggies defense has a better performance, and their offense should have a better performance as they get a big time win. |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Oregon State +4.5 3.3% play Oregon State has not been a good road team of late, but I think tha'ts why we are getting +4.5, and the bye definitely helps with traveling on the road, and they are helped by the fact that Jonathan Smith their HC is familiar with Washington as he coached here. The Beavers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips. Oregon State upset Utah last year off their bye. The weather is going to be a factor with wind and some rain. It clearly benefits Oregon STate who is a 60% run team, and WAshington who is a 60% pass team. It won't be as bad as originally thought, but still shoudl be an advantage for Oregon State. Oregon STate looks like the better team they are +0.8 ypp vs. -0.22 compared to Washington +0.6 vs. -0.27. So they have the better #'s and against a slightly tougher schedule. The matchup as far as similar opponents and how they did also favors Oregon State. The 3 times they faced a top 50 passing offense, USC, Utah, and Washington State. They lost to USC & Utah, but were -8 to margin in those games. They held Washington STate to 10 points, and USC to 17 points, and only lost that game by 3. Washington against a top 60 pass defense lost to UCLA and Arizona State. They still got their points, but lost the game, and Oregon State's pass defense is the best they have faced. UCLA also was able to run the ball on WAshington who on paper appears to be very good vs. the run ranking 18th in ypc, but looking at EPA run defense they are outside the top 50, and when we take out garbage time they rank 83rd in epa run defense, and that is against an average opponent that ranks 71st. Their pass defense is one of the worst in the PAC 12 ranking 126th in epa. Oregon State's offensive line #'s are top 30 on average, while Washington's defensive line outside the top 80 in standard down rate, adjsuted line yards, and they rank 97th in 1st down defense, while Oregon STate ranks 23rd in 1st down offense. I think Oregon State can get ahead on the chains and really control this game. |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | 28-35 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
App STate -3 2.2% play Huge strength of schedule discrepancy here as App State's top 3 oppnents are better than any of Coastal's opponents. Coastal also only played 1 opponent with a +ypp differential and got beat 21-49 at home to Old Dominion who is +0.3 with an average opponent ypp diff of -0.15. App State is also +0.3, but vs. an average opponent +0.17. App State has a head scratching loss on their resume against Texas State, but Texas State top 50 run defense, Coastal ranks 80th in ypc defense, and 109th in qb rating defense. Coastal lost a ton of talen from last year's team they still have their QB, and the offense has been dominant ranking 20th in ypp, but their average opponent defense ranks 92.42. I think App State has a big advantage in the trenches here and won't be intimidated by Coastal Carolina considering they went on the road and beat TExas AM this year. |
|||||||
10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Bengals -3 -120 2.5% play |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Giants v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX POD |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Steelers +10.5 v. Eagles | 13-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Steelers +10.5 1.1% Free Play I think the Steelers are used to defending mobile QB's having to face Lamar Jackson each year. The strength of the Steelers is definitely stopping the run meanwhile the Eagles seem to take their foots off the break in the second half. Unless Kenny Pickett decides to throw 2+ interceptions I see the Steelers hanging in this one. 78-50 ATS Last 128 Free NFL Picks +41.37% |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Panthers +4 2.2% play |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Pittsburgh +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more. 23-13 ATS, is Pat Narduzzi’s record following a SU loss. For all the shit this guy gets he is a very solid coach. North Carolina’s offense is sizzling, but the last time you want a team to go on a bye is when the offense and team is clicking, and that’s what we have here for Mac Brown’s Tarheels. Mac Brown took over in 2019, and he’s 0-4 after the bye losing to Notre Dame the last two years, Virginia Tech and Pitt in 2019. This offense really has not faced a good defense all year with the exception of Notre Dame, a game they put up a lot of garbage stats. Notre Dame absolutely dominated that game, and the Irish have a very similar profile to Pittsburg in the fact that they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, and they rely on their QB to manage the game. North Carolina since Brown took over when facing a top 50 ypp defense is only 2-9! Their two wins came back in 2019, and were by only 3 points each against Miami and Duke. Pitt at 4-3 still has everything to play for. Pitt’s offensive troubles were two-fold last week at Louisville. They could not protect their QB, and they really couldn’t get consistency and flow in their running game. Despite running for more than 150 yards the team was just 4-11 on third down and had the 4 TO’s that cost them. I don’t see the same thing happening here as they are facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th, in yards per play. They rank 118th vs. the run, 116th vs. the pass, and have not show an ability to get pressure ranking 111th in sack %, 92nd in third down defense, and 112th in success rate. Pitt is 2-0 when facing a bad defense this year, and 19-4 since 2018 when facing a non top 75 defense. 3 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. This team under Narduzzi just thrives in this type of a match up. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | UAB -4.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
UAB -4.5 2.2% PLAY Straight fade of FAU who is now 9-18-1 ATS under Willie Taggart. UAB could be without their starting QB here, but that won't matter as they run the ball 66% of the time rank 7th in ypc, going up against FAU who is 109th in ypc defense. This play is more about the fact that FAU struggles when they face good defenses. UAB ranks 27th in ypp defense while FAU ranks 69th on offense, but FAU has faced an average 98th ranked ypp defense so this year they are even worse. They would used to blow out the bad defenses on their schedules and struggle vs. good defenses, but this year they are even struggling vs. the bad to average defenses. N'kosi Perry had 3 INT against UAB last year, and UAB ranks 26th in defensive TO percentage. Look for UAB to control this game, and it doesn't help that FAU wants to play fast which makes this spread even more interesting. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 10 m | Show | |
Missouri +3.5 3.3% play This will be a tight game in my opinion as Missouri is a top 20 defense ranking top 20 vs. the run and vs. the pass. I don’t see how South Carolina gets points here to cover the spread as their offense is pretty bad and Spencer Rattler has been very underwhelming. Missouri should have won at Florida, should have won at Auburn, and gave Georgia a dog fight. South Carolina is now ranked #25, which is an absolute joke. I understand they beat A&M last week, and beat Kentucky on the road, but those are fraudulent victories. First of all A&M was down to their 3rd string QB last week and outgained South Carolina, who benefited from 100 yard kick off return and a 19 yd TD drive. Kentucky was ravaged by injuries all over the place when South Carolina visited. I have seen enough from Missouri’s defense to feel confident they’ll be in this game, and South Carolina is not a team I’m confident backing as a favorite. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Illinois v. Nebraska +8 | 26-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Nebraska +7.5 2.2% play I think this is nice spot for Nebraska who seemed to get a nice bump after their bye a few weeks ago, and here are getting another bye, meanwhile Illinois in a flat spot after 3 weeks in a row against tough opponents, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, where they were dogs in 2 of the 3. This is also Illinois 3rd road game of the year, and they lost earlier against Indiana, the same team that Nebraska just beat 35-21 after their last bye. I would argue that Illinois defense will finally be tested as Nebraska has some play makers that could give this defense fits starting with one of the best graded WR in the nation Trey Palmer. While Illinois ranks 1st in qb pass defense they have faced the following passing offenses 101, 118, 119, 16, 121, and 76. Nebraska checks in at #48, and is home for this game. I still can’t completely trust and believe in Illinois QB, Tommy Devito, and Illinois ranks 100th in % of possessions ending in TO. They are an easier offense to prepare for on extra prep and that’s what Nebraska has here. Well over 65% of the tickets and money are on Illinois here this week, but I like their chances to be in this game throughout as Illinois is in a new role, as a ranked team playing on the road as a significant favorite, a role I don’t recall they have been in for a decade or more. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Cincinnati +2 v. Central Florida | 21-25 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +2 3.3% play Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work. It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense. UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for. Plumlee as a starter dating back to his 2019 season at Ole Miss is 0-8 vs. a top 60 run defense, and has just 4 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions. Cincinnati definitely falls into that bucket as they rank 5th in defensive ypc, and while they have not been as dominant as last year I expect them to continue to get better. Luke Fickel as an away dog is 9-4 ATS. UCF relies heavily on explosive plays and Cinci’s defense is 10th in 20+ yard play percentage. I faded Cinci last week, but that was due to the fact that the weakness on this defense is the secondary, and SMU was a capable passing team, and we were very lucky to come away with a cover despite the wind as we got a back door cover late. This week I’ll be backing Cincinnati as a dog as I don’t think UCF is as good as they are getting credit for here. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Notre Dame +2.5 v. Syracuse | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +3 -120 4% play Major let down spot for Syracuse after blowing a double digit lead against Clemson in a very phsyical game. To make it worse they had a roughing the passer late in the game that really cost them the game. I don't think they have much left for this game, and why did Sean Tucker only have 5 carries in the game? I don't htink Tucker is completely healthy, and their QB Schrader carried the ball 21 times in a physical match up. This is a noon kickoff for Syracuse and I think Notre Dame will be ready with their defense to make this a close game, and probably pull the upset. I don't htink the ACC is very good this year, and in reality Syarcuse was benefits of a 90 yard fumble recover which was a 14 point swing, and they recovered another fumble in the red zone after a 21 yard run by Shipley so they really could have lost by double digits or more in this game. I think it's a lot to ask them to go back home and beat a phsyical Notre Dame team that had to play UNLV last week. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 11 m | Show | |
Iowa State +1.5 2.2% play Iowa State 0-4 in Big 12 play, but their losses are by a total of 14 points, and I think they are on the right track with their 3 point loss to Texas as Hunter Dekkers played by far his best game, and will be aided by the fact that they are facing at eam who ranks 106th in ypc defense, and at home again. Oklahoma on the other hand are playing their toughest defense all season. They are 0-3 when facing a top 50 run defense. Iowa State ranks 10th in ypc defense, and 15th in third down defense. I think we see a tight game, but I don’t see why Oklahoma is a favorite here. These teams have played similar strength of schedules, but I’ll go with the far better defense catching points at home. Matt Campbell is 6-3 ATS at Iowa State with extra preparation during the regular season and is 9-3-2 ATS as a home dog. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 10 m | Show | |
West Virginia +7.5 3.3% / West Virginia +240 0.3% play ML TCU now off 5 straight games that have gone down to the wire with 4 of them being against top 20 opponents, and the 5th being against Sonny Dykes old team, SMU. TCU now goes on the road to face West Virginia in a bit of a let down/sleepy spot, and it’s a spot that TCU has struggled losing 4 straight to West Virginia, and Sonny Dykes 1-10 ATS in his career on the road as a ranked team facing an opponent who is not ranked. TCU has 3 Texas schools on their schedule ahead of this and the players can’t help but not take West Virginia seriously after they got beat by 38 points last week on the road to Texas Tech, but this is a team that has a very good home field advantage, and an early start is not going to help TCU who has gotten off to slow starts at times this season. TCU defensive weakness is the pass defense. They can’t get to the QB, and they rank 93rd in EPA pass defense, and that is despite knocking 3 starting QB’s out of games. They were able to come back and beat Kansas State, but Kansas State was decimated by injuries in that game and was down to their third string QB at one point. West Virginia is a pass first team, and JT Daniels when given time is a deadly passer. West Virginia ranks 17th in sack % allowed, while TCU 82nd in sack %. I think West Virginia will score some points, and their defense matches up well enough to keep this one within a TD. TCU’s offense runs the spread, and they want to run first. Their offense has looked amazing so far due to the play of Max Duggan, and the fact that they haven’t played many defenses. Their rushing offense has faced an average run defense ranking 89.5. That’s the one thing that West Virginia is good at stopping the run. Also in his 3 starts vs. West Virginia Max Duggan has struggled big time going 47-91, 549 yards 1 TD and 5 interceptions. This game will go to the wire. |
|||||||
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU -3 3.3% PLAY Can’t really compare the strength of schedules here. East Carolina’s only P5 opponent was NC State to open the season, while BYU has faced Arkansas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Baylor, and then a very good Liberty team. East Carolina also getting a bit more love than they should after beating UCF last week 34-13. UCF likely looking ahead to this week’s game vs. Cincinnati and were -4 TO margin in the game. This is a short week traveling to play at elevation, while BYU will be desperate for a win. Should be a good game, but BYU has an excellent home field advantage. Their only loss at home was against Arkansas at home. Jaren Hall has been amazing at home in his career 24 passing TD’s and just 4 Int’s and will be going up against East Carolina pass defense that ranks 117th. Perfect buy low / sell high situation here after BYU lost big on the road last week, and will be desperate for a win to get to bowl game this year. |
|||||||
10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State +7 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
Washington State +7 2.2% play Statistically we have a pretty even match up as WAshington STate +0.2 yards per play vs. an average opponent +0.36, while Utah is +0.1 vs. average opponent +0.5. Washington State has a very good home field advantage, in fact Utah has not won here since 2011. Both teams off a bye, but I think that favors Washington State a bit more considering they had struggles in their last 2 games where they were showing regression, but for what its worth both of those games were on the road where this team seems to struggle. Utah really has not been great on the road, and I think their defense has taken a big step back in fact Washington State has the better defense, and the strength of the defense is agaisnt the run where they rank 35th in ypc, which matches up well against Utah. Utah's defense ranks 111th in ypp, while Washington STate ranks 50th, and it's not like it's been against worse competition either. Washington STate has faced USC and Oregon on their schedule and their average opponent ypp is 48th compared to Utah at 42. You are still paying a bit of a premium on Utah based off last year, and I don't think its warranted here. Utah typically always had the better special teams as well, but that's not longer been the case they rank 108th in sepcail teams compared to Washington STate ranking 34th. This is a Washington State team that beat Wisconsin on the road and held a double digit lead against Oregon at home. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
49ers +1 2.2% play |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Colts +3 -125 3.5% play |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Giants +3.5 v. Jaguars | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Giants +3.5 1.1% Free Play |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
LIONS +7 3.3% PLYA |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Browns +7 5.5% MAX POD |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Washington v. California +7.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show | |
California +7.5 2.2% play Cal was in a battle at Notre Dame losing 17-24, they came back home beat Arizona 49-31, then lost b2b road games with a bye in between. The loss against Colorado is particularly head scratching as many believe Colorado to be the worst among Power 5 opponents. Perhaps Cal and Wilcox was looking ahead to his former employer’s meeting with Washington? They went 1-5 in the red zone for TD’s against Colorado. The biggest issue for Cal is the play of their offensive line and that tends to be magnified on the road. Here they come back home, and it’s not like this is the same Washington defense or defensive line as years past. They rank 87th in standard down rate and 89th in stuff rate. Cal just needs to stay out of predictable passing downs, and they should be successful on offense. Washington’s defense ranks 124th in QB rating defense, 130th in third down defense, and when given time Jack Plummer has been very efficient, and this offense does not lack play makers. That’s why I think they’ll be able to score some points here. Wilcox is 8-3 ATS As a home dog, and his defense is still playing very well and one could argue this is the best defense Washington has faced this season. Washington is also playing in their 3rd road game in the past 4 and go up against a pass defense that has 8 interceptions. I think Cal sticks around in this one and have a shot at the upset. The last 3 meetings have been close, and we are getting some extra value in this one based on recent results. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show | |
Kansas State +3.5 3.3% play TCU has a top 5 offense form a YPP perspective, but their average opponent ypp defense ranks 102.8, and here they’ll face Kansas State ranking 35th. It’s a big step up in class, and Kansas State which ranks top 10 in epa pass defense will also have 30mph wind gusts in their favor in this game. The windy environment definitely should help Kansas State who runs the ball more at a 62% clip. Adrian Martinez should have a big day, as TCU ranks 90th in standard downs on the defensive line also 121st in power success and 105th in stuff rate. Spencer Sanders had 68 rushing yards an 2TD’s and if he didn’t get banged up in the game I think Oklahoma State probably does not blow a 14 point 4th quarter lead. Oklahoma State also not nearly as good defensively as Kansas State and overall Kansas State has the better statistical profile. Situationally TCU is in a rough spot as they have been in tight games each of their last 4 weeks. They faced 3 ranked conference foes, and had a rivalry game against SMU, their head coaches previous job. Meanwhile, Kansas State just off the bye, and ready to give a max effort here, and they have edges in the trenches. I don’t know if TCU will be able to take the punches and be able to throw them back late in the game. Both teams play at a slow pace the total has come down 5+ points and I just feel like +3.5 offers tremendous value. I like the way Adrian Martinez is playing right now and the Kansas State coaching staff is very good. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Pittsburgh +2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% MAX POD Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here. He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye. I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion. I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so much information so quickly. Cunningham does not do well with that normally, and here he goes against top 25 pass rush that also is a top 20 pass defense overall and decent enough against the run to give them issues. Pitt is 15th in havoc rate, and Cunningham grades out very poorly according to PFF vs. pressure 33.5, and it’s really not optimal to face it in this situation. I looked further back and Louisville is 7-16 overall when facing a top 50 pass rush with Cunningham as the starter with two of those wins vs. group of 5 team. Personally, I think we are getting some value, because Pitt lost to Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely to beat Virginia Tech. In that game they had 3 turnovers in the second half. I think they take better care of the football here and Louisville actually is worse ranking 93rd in % of possessions ending in TO’s while Pitt ranks 57th. Pitt, a much more balanced offense than previous years makes them more difficult to prepare for, and they played extremely well on the road a season ago, and are also off the bye. Narduzzi the last few seasons with extra prep is 8-0 straight up, meanwhile Louisville just 2-4 the last two seasons with 10+ days to prepare and that includes some large losses by 19, 14, and 21 points. Coaching advantage here for Pitt in my opinion. Match up wise Pitt also has the advantage as they are both run first teams. Pitt ranks 56th in epa vs. an average opponent ranking 53.2, while Louisville ranks 72nd vs. 66. Pitt’s defense ranks 43rd, while Louisville’s ranks 70th. Pitt also more of a threat in the passing game as Pitt’s pass defense is top 20. Louisville’s pass defense ranks 88th in qb rating despite having 2nd best pass rush, which is not a great sign heading into this game. Pitt’s other loss, was only only to Tennessee the #3 team in the nation, and nobody played Tennessee better this year than Pitt. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | BYU v. Liberty +7 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 41 h 39 m | Show | |
Liberty +7 3.3% play I understand Liberty has not faced a tough schedule with an opponent YPP differential of -0.58, but BYU’s opponent YPP differential is -0.34, and they both put up +1ypp. BYU just went back to back against Notre Dame and Arkansas and got their buts kicked. They got their buts kicked against Oregon as well. The schedule is obviously tougher than what Liberty has done, but Liberty is at home here getting a TD, and Hugh Freeze is 9-3 ATS as a home dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog overall, and is a hell of a coach. Liberty also top 50 defense, and they have shown they can stop the run and the pass, and put pressure on the QB. They rank 4th ins ack %, 5th in success rate defense, and are top 25 in epa run defense and epa pass defense. BYU’s defense is showing major holes ranking 123rd in success rate defense. Liberty may get some help this week at QB with the return of Charlie Brewer, but it’s their running game that I’m banking on keeping them in this game. They rank 45th in epa run offense and go up against BYU who ranks 98th in epa run defense. BYU’s defense has also struggled vs. the pass, and I honestly don’t know if BYU has anything left at this point after going back to back game against Notre Dame and Arkansas. I see a game that goes down to the wire, because of Liberty’s defense. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +6.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State +6 2.2% play Spencer Sanders is a go, and the fact that there will be 20mph winds actually gives Oklahoma State +6 more value as the total has come down 5-6 points but the spread has moved in favor of Texas from 3 to 6. Texas has looked great, but are we giving them too much credit already for their close win to Alabama and their blowout of a very bad Oklahoma team? We saw Texas struggle in their lone true road game at Texas Tech losing out right and that was a Texas Tech team that ranks 105th in defense ypc. Oklahoma State’s defense is not as good as a season ago, but they still hold their own particularly against ht erun ranking top 50. With the wind I think this game comes down to the wire. I don’t trust Quinn Ewers on the road not to make a mistake, and Mike Gundy is one of those coaches I like backing as a dog. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Cincinnati v. SMU +3.5 | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
SMU +3.5 3.3% PLAY Luke Fickell is an excellent coach and his team is coming off a bye, but that’s all in the line here in my opinion. This spread is as if this is last year’s Cinicinnati team, but they lost several players to the NFL, including two starting CB’s in Cobe Bryant and Sauce Gardner. It appears they haven’t skipped a beat ranking 4th in ypp, but they have faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 85.8. There are red flags too as they haven’t been forcing turnovers ranking 92nd, and their third down defense ranks 109th while their rn defense ranks 76th in epa. I just don’t know how good this Cinci team is, and they were +1 dog here in 2020 when there were no fans. I get it SMU lost 3 straight games and appear not to be as good as they were with Sonny Dykes, but that 3 game stretch vs. Maryland, TCU, and UCF as those teams are a combined 16-3, and SMU played two of those games on the road. SMU was actually a 2.5 home dog to TCU, are we saying Cincinnati is better than TCU right now? I don’t know that they are especially 1 point better over a key number of 3, which is really saying they are a lot better. Do we put Cincinnati -2.5 on a neutral vs. TCU? I don’t think so. Cinci before their bye really struggled at home, and I question what this team has on offense. Ben Bryant was concussed in the 4th quarter, but that was before they trailed at home to South Florida 24-21. He’s back for this game, but the first game after a concussion is always a bit shaky, and I think SMU can take advantage. Cinci also played a road game at Tulsa, but came away with a 10 point win, which looking back at Tulsa got smashed the next week by Navy by 30 points. SMU just dominated Navy a week ago had a 40-20 lead in the 4th quarter before they took the foot off the gas allowing Navy to score 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes for the back door cover. |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | 34-42 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
Saints +3 -120 2.5 %play buy 1/2 |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Troy v. South Alabama -3 | 10-6 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
South Alabama -3 1.1% Free Play The winner of this game will likely be the team out of the Sun Belt west. Troy has played the toughter schedule, but South Alabama has the more impressive result losing by only 1 at UCLA now looks quite good. This is also a short week for both teams, but Troy is going on the road while South Alabama was home last game and remains home for this one, which gives them an edge in this one. I certainly don’t trust Troy’s offensive line on the road. They rank 122nd in ypc, and 116th in sack % allowed, which has led to 106th rank in turnover percentage per offensive drive. South Alabama has a huge edge there as they rank 4th in turning teams over, and that’s just not something you are going to see many people handicap. Predict who wins the turnover battle and predict who wins the game. South Alabama also 20th in rushing ypc, and are decent enough in pass defense ranking 60th in epa pass defense, and overall rank 23rd in success rate defense compared to Troy who ranks 71st. Troy has a few other red flags here they rank 121st in third down defense and will be going up against South Alabama who is 7th in 3rd down offense. Also South Alabama has the stronger special teams unit and Troy has been very poor in red zone TD% -22.23 differential compared to South Alabama who is +12.63%. Troy was a 5.5 point dog at Western Kentucky and hung on to win, but South Alabama’s #’s are better than Western Kentucky. All in all this is a short enough number to play. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +4 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Broncos +4 2.2% play |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Ravens v. Giants +5.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Giants +6 2.2% pay |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Browns | 38-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 3.5% play |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Dolphins +3 5.5% MAX POD |
|||||||
10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Utah -3 -115 3.5% play The Utes should control this game with the running game. USC’s strength of schedule has been horrific when we talk about the defenses and offenses they have faced and it has led to a lot of hype. I’m not at all sold on this USC defense, which has largely benefited from timely turnovers against horrible competition. The average opponent offense ranks 79th in YPP and 83.5 in success rate. Their run defense despite facing an average 87.1 ypc offense ranks 90th in ypc allowed. Utah is a run first team, but is fully capable of beating teams through the arm of Cam Rising. Utah lost two games already this year when their defense did not show up, but those games were on the road, and while USC’s offense has clicked there are some red flags particularly in their road game at Oregon State where Caleb Williams had just 170 yards on 36 attempts. Utah’s defense is better than Oregon State, but their offense is also more balanced than Oregon State, and have a significantly better home field advantage, better coach and more experience. Washington State also held USC under 400 total yards a week ago. Utah’s secondary is the strength of the team ranking 28th in epa pass defense. USC wins this game and I think they may cruise the rest of the way, but I think Utah is up to the task. Kyle Whittingham lost a player to USC in the offseason and commented several times about his opinion on the new landscape of college football, which was a direct shot at what USC is doing. Will it matter? I don’t know, but I do know that Utah will be max motivated at home, and they have the match up. This game should be more like a TD favorite for Utah, but the fact that they lost a couple of games including last week makes it much closer giving us value. At the end of the day, how confident are you in the fact that USC average opponent run defense ranks 115th, and their average opponent pass offense ranked 98th. The strength of schedules just don’t compare. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +3.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida State +3.5 2.2% play / FSU +155 1% ML Bonus I’m not sold on this Clemson team, and this line tells a true story. How is it that Clemson is only a 3.5 point favorite here? Well a deeper look and these two teams played the same 3 teams the last 3 weeks, and both went 2-1 ATS with similar statistics. Also worth noting that Florida State +1.8 ypp against tougher competition compared to Clemson +1.4 ypp. I also would argue that Florida State, and not Clemson has the better QB in this match up. Jordan Travis is a difference maker, and while they lost last week against NC State because of two interceptions I am confident he bounces back here. On paper Clemson has the better defense and Florida State has the better offense, but again Florida State has faced tougher competition. Florida State is at home here at night in their biggest game in years and I think they pull the outright upset. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
Kentucky +4 Classic buy low sell high situation here as Miss State dominated a good Arkansas team without their QB winning 40-17, while Kentucky lost without their star QB Will Levis as a more than a TD favorite. Arkansas with a backup QB actually had 3 trips into Miss State territory with no points, so that final score was a bit misleading. Kentucky is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. They are getting Will Levis back this game, and it will be the third game for Chris Rodriguez at RB, which should make a difference. Miss State’s air raid offense is tough to defend, but I feel Kentucky can have success. They rank 26th in epa pass defense this is the third year in a row they are seeing it, and the strength of the team is the LB’s. Kentucky also a very good red zone defense, and although they haven’t gotten pressure on the QB this year that has been much different at home where they are top 50. Miss State will move the ball, but Kentucky is 40th in third down stops, and top 25 pass defense overall should be able to slow Miss State enough to cover this #. Kentucky on the flip side here is still a run first offense despite having issues from their OL. I don’t think that shows up as much at home here and Miss State’s defensive weakness is their defensive line where they rank 107th in adjusted line ayrds, 102nd in standard down, 92nd vs. the run. Kentucky since 2018 is 18-2 straight up when facing a team outside the top 75 in run defense. These are two slow paced teams, and I expect a very tight ball game, but I believe the value is on the Kentucky side as they have also faced the tougher schedule. Kentucky opponents +0.5 ypp differential compared to Miss State -0.51. Kentucky could be undefeated they lost against Ole Miss on a late fumble, and obviously played without Levis against South Carolina this past week. If that were the case wouldn’t they be favored here, but this is the exact spot we like to take Kentucky and Stoops in + the points. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
LSU +3 -120 4% play Taking points with the team coming off a loss, as LSU got behind early to Tennessee, which has been the story for the Vols. Get out early and hold on. There is no shame to falling victim to the same thing most teams do as Heupel 19-2 in his last 21 first half spreads. This week will be a different story, and a good buy low spot on LSU who is 14-5 ATS after an ATS loss. Brian Kelly is 25-16 ATS following a SU loss, and 14-6 ATS in that situation as a dog. Meanwhile, Florida is over achieving at this point and were lucky to get by Missouri last week as a double digit favorite because of a pick six. LSU has the better defense here. Both teams have played an opponent YPP offense of 55.6 (LSU), AND 57.2 for Florida. Yet LSU ranks 46th in ypp defense compared to Florida’s 98th ranking. The biggest difference between these two defenses is LSU’s ability to stop the run, and running QBS, and Florida’s inability to do that. Florida 113th in defensive ypc, and 115th in epa, and have really struggled vs. mobile QB’s. Cam Rising 7-91, Gerry Bohannon 15-102, and Hendon Hooker 13-112. LSU’s defense ranks 40th in ypc, 32nd in epa, and has held the 3 mobile QB’s they have faced in check, Jordan Travis 8-31, Auburn’s Ashford 11-19, Hooker 10-56. Florida’s offense is very much one dimensional, and I trust Jaydon Daniels a little bit more than Anthony Richardson at this point. LSU also the better red zone offense/defense, the better 3rd down team, Florida is 125th in third down defense. Florida also 109th in % of possessions ending in TO’s while LSU has taken care of the ball ranking 23rd in that category. Majority of public backing Florida at nearly 70%, based off LSU’s inability to show up against Tennessee. LSU should win this game outright. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | NC State +3.5 v. Syracuse | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
NC STATE +3.5 2.2% play This line is the way it is, because NC State will likely be without their star QB Leary, but the back up is a 25 year old with plenty of experience, enough to manage the game and not turn the ball over, which is my handicap here. NC State should be able to establish the running game here when you look at the fact that Syracuse is completely under sized in this match up. Syracuse DT weight 266lbs, in their 3-3-5 scheme. NC State’s OL average 317 lbs across the starting 5. Also without Leary in the second half the defense stepped up and shut down Florida State offense and held them scoreless and I see much of the same with a team stepping up in the absence of their QB. Syracuse offense has looked great with the addition of Robert Annae, Garret Schrader looks like he has taken the next step, but a closer look and this team has not faced anyone. Their toughest opponent was Purdue, a game they were outgained by 200 yards and should have lost, don’t get me started that was a MAX POD for me. Overall this is a step up in competition and the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. NC State’s DC Tony Gibson’s defense did hold Annaels Virginia offense in check in 2020 picking Brennan Armstrong off 3 times and hold them to under 100 yards rushing. Schrader had a rough game against this defense in 2021. I know the sentiment is that he has improved, but he has not faced a defense that can stop the run and pass. Syracuse off the bye, but that’s not always a good thing when you are 5-0 and playing your best football you really don’t want the break. They’ll be the fresher team here, but overall the pace of the game will be slow, and NC State has a top 5 special temas unit. Points will be at a premium as this total suggests opened 44.5 down to 42 or 41.5. I’ll take NC State +3.5. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Maryland v. Indiana +11.5 | 38-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Indiana +11.5 2.2% / Indiana +340 0.5% Indiana is a well-coached team, and we certainly have the better coach in this spot at home getting double digits. I think it could be a flat spot for Maryland team off the home loss to Purdue. Is it that time for Maryland’s season to unravel or are they mentally strong enough to push through and win by double digits? I know they’ll be in a dog fight early in this game, Indiana trailed Michigan 17-10 into the 4th quarter last week, and I don’t think Maryland will handle it as well. Indiana has faced a far tougher schedule with an opponent YPP differential of +1.48, compared to Maryland -0.28. Maryland’s defense has been very good surprisingly, but the one thing Indiana is going to throw at them is the passing game something that they did not handle well last week against Purdue and that was at home. Indiana also plays with a ton of tempo #1 in seconds per play, which may hurt them or help them. I’m betting it helps them as Marylands defense ranks 93rd in 3rd down defense. Remember, Indiana won at home to open the season over a much improved Illinois team. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa State+ 162.2% play Texas in a sandwich game here after the Red River Rivalary a spot they have struggled. I can’t buy that Texas is back yet not when they lost to Texas Tech team on the road, and they have Oklahoma State on the road next week. Iowa State has the Big 12’s best defense and their 3-3-5 defense gives QB’s issues, and I think Ewers could struggle here keeping Iowa State in the game. Iowa State’s defense 9th in 3rd down defense, 31st in 20+ play % allowed and they rank 15th in yards per play allowed. They are a balanced defense solid against the run and the pass. I just think this is an over reaction to Texas beating Oklahoma 49-0 last week in what was a depleted Oklahoma team. Matt Campbell 30-17 ATS as a dog, and has only lost a game by 17 one time since he’s been at Iowa State. |