Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-24-21 | Eagles +3 v. Raiders | 22-33 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Eagles +3 3.3% play |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +8.5 v. Packers | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Washington Football Team +8.5 2.2% play |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Bengals +6.5 3.3% play |
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10-23-21 | NC State -3 v. Miami-FL | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show | |
NC State -3 3.3% play I wanted to get out in front of this as it's going to go to -3.5 I believe. I faded Miami their last two games and I'm fading them again here. I just don't think Manny Diaz is a good coach, and now at 2-4. They're missing their QB King for the rest of the season, and their top two RB's and now go against arguably the best defense they have faced all year, and a team that is playing for an ACC Championship. NC State has all the motivation and momentum and a huge coaching advantage here. NC State also has a little revenge here after losing at home 44-41, but Cam'ron Harris gone, and D'eriq King is gone. King went nuts last year with 105 yards rushing and 31-41 430 passing yards 5 TD and 0INT. While Tyler Van Dyke has been decent so far he has gone against Virginia's defense ranked 105th in YPP, and North Carolina ranked 103rd in EPA pass defense. NC State is a balanced defense this year ranking 21st in yp, 50th in epa pass defense, and 24th in epa run defense. NC State is also top 50 in TO % per posession on both sides of the ball, while Miami ranks 118th and 111th. |
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10-23-21 | West Virginia +4.5 v. TCU | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
West Virginia +4.5 3.3% play It was clear to me that West Virginia was gassed 2 weeks ago before their bye. They had a challenging schedule and travel, and they just got their ass kicked by Baylor who surprised them with a lot of big plays in the passing game. The bye week came at a good time for this team to rest up and self scout, and I think they come out with their best game of the season here. TCU is in the opposite situation where they just got done plays three Texas schools in a row, and then @Oklahoma last week. What does this team have left? The match up also favors West Virginia here as TCU runs 60.65% of the time, but West Virginia's defensive strength is their run defense, which ranks 22nd in ypc, and 25th in epa. That has come against a challenging schedule of offensese ranked 47.8 in ypc. TCU is 5th, but they are also banged up a bit as Max Duggan and Chris Evans have foot injuries. They will play and are probably, bu tyou ahve to question how long until maybe they are impacted by it. TCU also going up against a top 50 run defense last year averaged 10 points less than their season average and went 1-3, and they are 0-2 this year against top 60 run defenses. West Virginia is #3 in the nation in tackles for loss, which could help set TCU up in third and long, and West Virginia ranks 27th in sack %. TCU has protected Duggan well, but they have faced an average 87.4 sack % defense. West Virginia's offense has struggled at time this year, but they catch a break facing a tired TCU defense that ranks 125th in ypp, 125th in epa run defense, and 100th in epa pass defense. West Virginia scored 38, 37, and 27 points last year when they were not playing top defenses. Finally, West Virginia 2-4 is desparate for a win. They have a challenging schedule the rest of the way so a bowl game is still in the mix, but it starts with a win here. TCU at 3-3 is in the same situation of course, but I would argue that West Virginia could sustain that level of energy for longer especially since they are off a bye. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
LA Tech +6 2.2% Free Play UTSA is #24 team ranked going on the road to play Louisiana Tech who lost this game on the road by 1 point. I think this is a good match up for Louisiana Tech’s offense, which relies on the passing attack, and that aligns with the weakness of UTSA’s defense, which ranks 80th in QB rating defense, and 52nd in epa pass defense. Louisiana Tech put up 34 points against a good Miss State defense, and 27 against a good NC State defense. UTSA’s offense relies on their running game, and that also matches up well with Louisiana Tech’s defensive strength. Louisiana Tech is 70th in ypc, but their epa run defense ranks 34th. Their defense also has the ability to force turnovers ranking 34th in defensive turnover % per possession. The problem has been their offense also turns the ball over. If QB Austin Kendall can play a cleaner game at home Louisiana Tech wins this game outright. Skip Holtz has been a money printing machine as a dog over his career. |
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10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3 | 32-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
Fresno State -3 3.3% Free Play First of all I think we are getting some line value here based on Nevada’s win at Boise, which was a bit misleading when you factor they were +3 in TO margin. Fresno State also far better team up and down when we put them next to Boise. Fresno has the more impressive road win at UCLA. Fresno’s offense likes to pass the ball, and Nevada is not good against the pass. They’ve faced one team that can pass the ball and Boise lit them up for 388 yards 4 TD’s and 1 INT. Even New Mex State ranks 106th in epa pass defense passed for 425 yards 3TD’s and 0INTs. Nevada is going to also pass the ball 63% of the time, and they have a supposed NFL QB in Carson Strong who is not 100% right now. Nevada really has not played a balanced defense like Fresno. Fresno is 14th in success rate defense, 22nd at QB sack %, they’re 45th vs. the run, and 10th in epa pass defense. Kansas State very good run defense, but struggles vs. the pass held them to 17 points. Fresno also played extremely well at Oregon only losing by a TD and they’re home here. |
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10-23-21 | Boston College +4.5 v. Louisville | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Boston College +4.5 2.2 %pla y |
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10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show | |
Clemson +3.5 3.3% play Clearly a value play here. The last 3 meetings the spread has been 21.5, 27, and 24, and pre-season this spread was -17.5, and we have seen a 3 TD move. Clemson also 0-6 ATS this season while Pitt is 5-1 ATS. Clemson has faced by far the tougher schedule at this point their opponent ypp differential is +0.88 compared to Pitt’s opponents who are -0.42, and they faced Tennessee at the right time, which was the beginning of the season. For me this game is all about Kenny Pickett at QB for Pitt. That is their one true advantage in this game, and the knock on Pickett is he does not perform well against good defenses. Clemson constitutes as a great defense, and they’re getting their best coverage corner Andrew Booth back this week. Let’s dig deep into Pickett’s struggles at QB against top defenses, these are defenses that on average are top 50 blended in variety of categories like ypp, epa pass, epa run, ypc run, qbr. He’s faced 11 opponents over the last 4 seasons, and he’s thrown just 7 passing TD’s in those games and 9 interceptions. He’s only recorded 1 game where he averaged more than 6 yards per pass attempt, which to put that in perspective would be 113th in the country. In his two games against Clemson he was 26-55, 217 yards 2 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Pickett this season has faced a blended average defense of 71.92, so his numbers are great, but we saw some struggles from years past show up last week vs. Virginia Tech he was only 22-37 203 yards 5.5 yards per pass attempt 2 td/ 0int. He was lucky to have the running game to help him out in their 28-7 win, Va Tech is 98th in run defense. Clemson is top 20 in all of these categories. Clemson’s offense has been terrible and we really can’t deny that, but..DJ had his best game last week, and I feel like Clemson has found something in the running game with Kobe Pace who over the last two games has rushed 32 times for 201 yards and 2 TD’s. Pitt’s defense showed some weakness in their pass defense at times this year and rank 61st in EPA pass defense. These are two of the slowest offenses snaps per second in the country, and I just don’t see how Pitt can win this game by more than 3 points. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -6.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
Iowa State -6.5 -120 2.5% play We have an undefeated and #9 team in the country on the road against a 4-2 unranked team and they are a TD dog and they both play in the Power 5. I’m going with the Iowa State side here as they are clearly the better team from a metric perspective. Oklahoma State should have lost last week as they were down 17-3 with Texas in the red zone, and Texas threw a pick six with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, a 14 point swing in the game, and Texas just ran out of gas from the week before against Oklahoma as Oklahoma State scored 16 4th quarter points to pull the upset. I have tremendous respect for Gundy and we have backed them several time already this year, but this is just not the spot in my opinion. Iowa State’s two losses were very misleading and now they don’t look as bad as Baylor has really been great, and Iowa was just the #2 ranked team, and Iowa State outgained those two teams by 166 yards, and 194 yards. Iowa State’s biggest issues have been special teams and TO margin, and it could hurt them again here, but I don’t think it will. Iowa State is a very balanced team top 20 in all other categories and one of the few teams in the top 10 in epa/play offense and defense. Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 95th in ypp offense, and 92nd in success rate, and while Jaylen Warren has been a beast running the ball they’ve gone up against a weak opponent defense ranking on average 74.2. When we look at the defenses this team has played they have only faced one team that ranks top 50 in epa pass or run defense. That was Baylor who ranked 36th in epa pass defense, but 77th in epa run defense. Spencer Sanders in that game threw 3 INT, but Oklahoma State still escaped with the victory. Iowa State is top 20 in both run and pass defense, and Sanders is going to have to be great to cover this spread. This is just the third time in his career he’s facing a defense that is top 50 vs. the run and pass on average, and previous 2 games he has 2 passing TD’s and 3 INT. Iowa State’s offense is very experienced and they remember losing the last two years to Oklahoma State. I think they have a very good home field advantage and with a chance to “upset” a top 10 team the team is very aware of the spread and I think they will definitely want to cover it here. |
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10-23-21 | Oregon +1.5 v. UCLA | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
Oregon +1.5 3.3% play Both of these teams are pretty even statistically speaking, and both want to run the ball first. When I look at this game I feel the wrong team is favored and it’s due to recency bias. You have UCLA who just won back to back road games and the most recent at Washington, and Oregon barely got by CAL, and lost to Stanford. Both these teams are very good running the ball and good at stopping the run. Oregon has done it and won against tougher competition, lets look at that. Oregon has faced two run defenses similar to UCLA from a run defense perspective. Ohio State and Fresno State, and they rushed for 6 TD’s including 269 vs. Ohio State. Ohio State 24th in epa run defense against an average epa run offense ranking 76th. UCLA ranks 30th in epa run defense vs. an average epa run offense of 76. Oregon against their two opponents who are good at running the ball like UCLA, Cal and Ohio St. They won both games and only gave up 1 rushing TD. You may want to laugh at Cal, but they rank 7th in epa rushing offense, and I know it’s come against an average opponent epa run defense of 97th, but UCLA’s 21st ranked epa rushing offense came against an average opponent epa run defense ranking 83rd. To put that in perspective Oregon ranks 13th, vs an opponent average epa run defense of 69.6. UCLA has faced only one team even close to run defense as Oregon, and it was Fresno State. That defense held UCLA to 117 yards, and UCLA lost the game. UCLA has only faced one offense close to Oregon’s rushing attack, and that’s Arizona State with a mobile QB as well. They lost that game at home 42-23, and Jayden Daniels had 45 yards rushing and I expect Anthony Brown can help his team the same. Oregon in my opinion despite last year should control the game in the trenches. I don’t trust UCLA’s QB to play a clean game, and Oregon is top 20 in limiting and forcing turnovers when we look at % of drives ending in a TO, where UCLA ranks 56th, and 57th. Oregon with a lot of value here and is very much still in the playoff discussion and has more talent. This just seems to be the type of game that HC Cristobal gets his players to step up for with Gameday in attendance on the day. |
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10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Washington -17.5 2.2% play |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
Titans +6.5 3.3% play |
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10-17-21 | Raiders +4 v. Broncos | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Raiders +4 4.4% NFL POD |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
Browns -3 -120 4% play |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
Bears +5.5 3% play |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah -1 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Utah -1 2.2% This would be a larger play, but my one hesitation is that Utah was at USC last week pulling off the upset, then to Texas for the funeral of another player death. However, these things tend to bond the team, and they have everything to play for in the PAC 12 being undefeated at this moment. Both of these teams had similar results against BYU losing on the road. Arizona State has yet to prove that they can win on the road in a hostile environment. They’re just 5-8 on the road under Herman Edwards. They won at UCLA in impressive fashion, but UCLA does not really have an intimidating environment to be honest. Utah will be loud, and it will be colder (40’s) than Arizona State is used to. Utah also has a much better defense than UCLA as they can stop the run and stop the pass, where UCLA has been good vs. the run, but they rank 74th in qb rating, 106th in sack %, and 101st in epa pass defense. Utah ranks 33rd in epa pass defense, 45 in epa run defense, and they have earned those ratings coming against an average opponent offense ranking 38.5. Arizona State has a good defense too, ranking 17th, but that has come against an average opponent offense ranking 71.6. Arizona State did play a defense close to Utah on the road and that was their loss at BYU where they put up only 17 points. Utah did face an offense as good as Arizona State and held USC, a TD under their season average held them to under 100 yards rushing, and gave up a lot of passing yards to Slovis, but held them to 2-4 TD’s in the red zone. I would argue that USC’s offense is a little better and matches up to the weaknesses of UTAH, and came away very impressed with Utah’s road win last week. USC has faced tougher schedule of defenses than Arizona State. Lastly, Utah was missing something earlier in the season, which is why they lost a couple of games, but it seems to me that since Brewer left the team and Cameron Rising took over at QB things have been different. Rising seems to be at rue leader that the players rally around, and I think he could do enough here to give Arizona State some issues. The season long numbers on Utah are factoring when Brewer was QB, and the offense has gotten better under Rising thus in my opinion giving us some value on Utah. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +4 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show | |
Air Force +4 2.2% |
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10-16-21 | Stanford -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
Stanford -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Washington State is very happy with themselves after winning back to back games as a dog, but Oregon State was fat and happy after beating USC and Washington, and traveled all the way up to Washington State to lose 31-24, and that was a different type of match up for Washington State. Stanford here is off a loss, and has an extra day to prepare and they really need this game for bowl eligibility. They have a QB in Tanner McKee who is going to give Washington State’s defense some issues. Washington ST ranks 113th in sack %, and that will allow McKee time to find the receivers. For Stanford is simple they are 3-0 when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 when they run for 70 or less. The teams they are 0-3 against and ran for less than 70 yards were UCLA, Kansas State, and Arizona State who rank 19th, 10th, and 7th vs. the run. Washington State ranks 103rd in rushing ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense. Stanford’s run defense, which has struggled has seen them facing 5 top 50 rushing teams. They lost 3 of those games, and 3 of them have come against athletic QB’s who are a threat to run the ball, and ran for 5 rushing TD’s. Washington State ranks 96th in ypc and 97th epa run offense, and their QB is not a threat to run. Stanford also has a special teams advantage here ranking 66th to Washington State’s 114th ranking, and Washington State has been very turnover prone with 12 lost turnovers. Stanford also has faced the tougher schedule having faced Kansas State in non-conference play compared to Washington ST who faced Utah St. Stanford also faced arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 – UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State, while Washington St faced Cal, Oregon St, and Utah, and they have the common opponent of USC, who Stanford beat, and Washington State got crushed by. Again Washington St has proven they can hang in games when their opponent’s strength is running the ball, but if their opponent has a capable QB they have not. Stanford’s Tanner McKee has been excellent and really a difference maker for Stanford, and I expect he will have a good game with some balance from the running game. Stanford did beat Oregon, and I think many are already writing that off. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +11.5 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 39 h 3 m | Show | |
Purdue +11.5 3.3% play This is the 7th straight week of playing football for Iowa, and they just come off a monster game against Penn State, where they were very lucky to win. Purdue is off a bye, and Jeff Brohm has been excellent in putting together an offensive game plan after a bye he average +7points from what the opponents gives up on the season, which would put them at 20 points here. Jeff Brohm is also 3-1 vs. Iowa since being at Purdue, and he has put up points 24, 24, 20, and 38. Part of the reason is Purdue is not afraid to pass and go over the top of this Iowa pass defense, which actually will be without their best corner Riley Moss who leads the nation with 4 INT’s. David Bell is one of the best WR in the nation, and Iowa has had a tough time stopping him. Las tyear he had 13 receptions 121 yards, and the year before he had 13 for 197. Offensively Iowa ranks 114th in ypp, 107th in rushing ypc, and 79th in QB rating. Purdue’s defense is very under rated ranking 28th in ypp defense, 13th in QB rating defense, 50th in rushing defense. I think the defense will keep them in this game, and I trust Purdue’s offense more than I trust Iowa’s. Purdue has really held Iowa’s rushing in check over the past 4 years holding them to just 3.57 ypc, and this year they rank 14th in epa run defense while Iowa ranks 119th in epa run offense. Iowa is going to have to try to pass it here, but Purdue 15th in epa pass defense. I don’t see how or why Iowa should be a double digit favorite here. The biggest issue here is turnovers as Purdue ranks 111th in TO’s they have to take care of the ball and if they do I think they have a shot at pulling the outright upset. Purdue had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to tie at Notre Dame and if they didn’t lose David Bell they probably lose that game by single digits. |
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10-16-21 | Arizona +6.5 v. Colorado | 0-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Arizona +7 -125 buy ½ 3.75% play Arizona is desperate for a win and I love the coaching staff with Jedd Fisch at HC previously serving as Patriots QB coach, their OC Brennan Carrol is the son of Pete Carrol, and veteran DC Don Brown. This defense has actually played better than their numbers indicate as they held BYU 36 yards under their season average as well as UCLA -22yards, and Oregon -24.5 yards. Arizona was in the game against BYU who was ranked #10 last week, they were in the game against Oregon despite -5 to margin, and they gave UCLA issues last week although losing 34-16 it was a 17-16 game late in the third quarter. Colorado has scored a total of 34 points in 4 games vs. P5 opponents, and haven’t pushed past a total of 260 yards. I don’t understand how they are nearly a TD favorite. Arizona lost their QB for the season that they started last week, but Gunner Cruz the 6’5 QB stepping in had 336 passing yards against BYU. These are two similar teams that have faced similar schedules, and Arizona -1.7 ypp compared to Colorado’s -2.9. |
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10-16-21 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina -7.5 | 42-45 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
North Carolina -7.5 The Tar Heels are off a loss to Florida State as a 18 point favorite. They lost to Florida State last year as well and bounced back by kicking the shit out of a ranked NC State team and they also beat Miami with Deriq King 62-26. King is out for the year with a shoulder injury, and that’s huge for North Carolina, because their biggest defensive issue is giving up rushing yards to opposing QB’s. ON the year 348 yards rushing and 7 rushing TD’s to opposing QB’s. Van Dyke is not a threat on the ground, and while he played decent vs. Virginia their pass defense is very poor and he still only completed 51% of his passes. For North Carolina really the only thing that’s beating their offense is a good pass rush. They struggled against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech both ranked top 35 in sack %. Miami ranks 98th in sack %, and they have allowed 48% conversions on third down. Miami is off the bye here, but I honestly am not afraid of Manny Diaz as a head coach. This is a team that has gotten worse since he has taken over. This isa team ranking 111th in TO margin, 111th in epa run offense, 90th in QB rating. I think they’re getting a pissed of North Carolina team. Mack Brown has indicated that practice has been good this week, and I see them putting a double digit victory over Miami here in front of their home crowd. |
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10-16-21 | Texas A&M -8.5 v. Missouri | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -9 I think the Aggies carry the momentum into this week against a very bad Missouri team that is lacking a ton of effort on the defensive side of the ball. I think there is a ton of confidence in Calzada at QB now, and that momentum will carry here. Missouri’s offense has been good, but they’re facing the best defense they have faced all year in A&M. Typically you’d want to fade a team after upsetting eh #1 team, but Missouri 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games. Something just is not right in Missouri. They gave up 4 huge passing TD’s in the second half against North Texas of all teams. |
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10-16-21 | Auburn +4.5 v. Arkansas | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
Auburn +4.5 3.3% PLAY These teams are pretty even statistically, and I don’t think you can give Arkansas 3 points for home field, and I like that Bo Nix has actually played better on the road and has played in far more challenging spots on the road this season. He faced Penn State on the road in a white out, and they were in that game it was 21-20 in the 4th quarter before losing 28-20. Auburn also came back at LSU in Death Valley at night, which is not something Auburn would have done in the past. Auburn to me also looked better against Georgia than Arkansas did. Georgia lost their defensive leader Smoke Monday in the second quarter because of targeting and he’ll be back here. Auburn’s receivers also had several key drops in the game one that led to a Georgia interception. The other thing to mention here is Auburn was a 13.5 point favorite at home against Arkansas last year, and now they’re a 4.5 point dog on the road that’s a 12 point move if we are saying home field is worth 3 points, which I don’t think Arkansas has a 3 point home field advantage here. I think this game comes down to the wire here. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -13 v. Syracuse | 17-14 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Clemson -13.5 2.2% play I'm buying low here on the Tigers, and I think they had a little momentum going into their bye when they were able to get the running game going wiht 231 rushing yards against BC. I think they can get the running game going here tonight while Clemson has been good from a ypc perspective they rank 86th in epa run defense. The average epa run defense that Clemson has faced this year ranks 16.75, so this is a good match up for Clemson. I really think we will see the running game work a bit, and for DJ to have his best game at QB against Syracuse pass defense that ranks 96th in QB rating. Clemson still has the skill position talent at WR, and I think the bye will help them all get on the same page. Defensively Clemson has been stout and although they spent a ton of time on the field, which was starting to hurt this team the bye came at the right time. Syracuse is a completely one dimensional offense led by the Miss State transfer QB Schrader who over his last two games carried the ball 45 times for 315 yards. I just don't see that working against Clemson and Syracuse ranks 109th in QB rating 106th in epa pass offense. I think Clemson can really dominate defensively, and Syracuse will really struggle to put up any points. I just don't know where the points are going to come from here. Clemson also has an advantage in special teams ranking 26th vs. 100th ranking for Syracuse. Clemson can really turn their season around, and I think it starts tonight by getting the team's confidence back, and the only way to do that is to go into the Carrier Dome where they have had issues in the past and pull the upset. The last 6 meetings between these two the spread was on average 30.25 points. |
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10-14-21 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
NAVY +11 3.3% PLAY Playing the triple option on a short week is not an ideal time. Last year Memphis got to face a historically bad Navy offense, and they did so by facing after an FCS foe. They definitely had success, but narrowly escapted 10-7. Memphis defense is just not very good especially against the run. On paper thye rank 60th in ypc allowed, but they have faced an average rushing ypc team ranked 94.2. Their EPA run defense ranks 93rd. This actually may be the worst run defense that Navy has faced all year, and Memphis not very good on 3rd downs, which is the key to getting service academies off the field and winning by double digits. Memphis has allowed 45.45% conversions, and that has come against offenses who are only averaging 38.53%. Mike MaCyntyre is a long time coach and the DC for Memphis who you would think has a lot of experience facing option teams. He was here last year when they faced it, but before that he did not face at Ole Miss, he did not face it at Colorado from 2013-18, and 2010-12 he did not face Air Force at San Jose State. 2009 when he was the DC at Duke they gave up 277 yards to Army. His defenses have rarely been good against the run, and I just feel like Navy is starting to figure things out on offense. Navy fired their OC and since then the offense has turned things around upsetting UCF 34-30, losing to SMU last week by only 7 - 31-24. SMUs run defense is far better than Memphis. On paper Navy's offense does not look great as they rank 84th in ypc, and 126th yards per play, but they have faced some tough defenses. On aveage the opponent ypp defense ranks 40th. So there is some reason to believe their numbers will improve down the stretch and facing a Memphis defense that is not very good particularly against hte run or pass could be a great opporntunity for Navy. Memphis offense has been great however, and that's why they are a double digit favorite, but this is not the same Memphis teams, and while they rank 20th in ypp it has come against an average opponent ypp rank of 82.2. Navy 's defense ranks 55th in epa pass defense, 39th in epa run defense and 50th in success rate, and that has not come against poor offenses. Their average opponent ypp offense is 40.4. There is just too much value for me here add in the fact that beating a service academy by double digits is very hard to do unless you are going to absolutely shut out their running game, which I have already established I don't believe Memphis can. Memphis additionally has struggled all year with turnovers ranking 124th in TO margin while Navy ranks 50th. The one clear advantage Memphis has in this game is special teams, but it's not enough for them to win and cover by double digits in my opinion. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
49ERS +6 BUY 1/2 5.5% NFL POD |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
BENGALS +3 3.3% PLAY |
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10-10-21 | Jets +3 v. Falcons | 20-27 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
jETS +3 2.2% PLAY |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
Nebraska +3 3% play You have #11 Michigan fresh off a whooping of Wisconsin last week on the road and they are only a 3 point road favorite against a 3-3 Nebraska team? Nebraska could easily be 5-1 and have continued to get better throughout the season. Michigan is in a very tough spot that they are not used to. In fact this is only the 5th time under Jim Harbough where they have played back to back road games and they are just 1-3 before this game. The game at Wisconsin was not as impressive as Wisconsin has not played with a pulse all year. Their defense is solid, but the offense is so bad at some point the defense just crumbles. Nebraska seems to be different, and has a good defense, and a more electric offense. Nebraska will host this game at night and there will be much more energy on their side here hosting a top 10 type of team in Michigan. Also, Nebraska’s run defense has been solid ranking 32nd in ypc allowed, and 23rd in epa run defense. Michigan struggled a bit running the ball against a similar run defense in Rutgers and that game was at home. They also struggled when Rutgers went to zone read offense allowing the QB to run as Noah Vedral ran for 42 yards in that game. Adrian Martinez is far more dynamic and he’s also passing the ball really well this year. I expect this game to go down to the wire, and I feel like Nebraska will have the edge in the ground game that will allow them to win the game. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
LSU +2.5 3.3% play What does Ed Orgeron do best? Talk in a deep voice, GO TIGERS! Just kidding.. He motivates his players, and his players play for him. They are following a loss at home last week in dramatic fashion to Auburn. Since Ed has been here as the head man in 2016, LSU is 11-1 straight up following a loss. The only back to back losses came last year where to be honest they just lost too much talent to the NFL following their Championship, and the loss came to no other than Alabama, and it came after they lost to a top 5 Texas A&M team. Motivation aside I think LSU matches up better than many are talking about here. LSU has clear edges on special teams ranking 12th compared to Kentucky 105th, and Kentucky is 125th in TO margin. LSU’s run defense has actually not been as bad as people think. They got steam rolled by UCLA, and maybe it woke them up a bit, because they have had two games where they’ve been dominant. I do think Kentucky will run the ball well here, but at some point Kentucky and QB Will Levis will have to win with him throwing the ball, and what I saw last week against Florida was not pretty. Kentucky upset Georgia, and they are riding high, but they did it by putting up 226 yards, and a ridiculous play by their WR. Maybe Levis comes out and has a great game, and I’m proven wrong, but.. LSU offense is predicated on the pass. They don’t even try to hide it they are not the old LSU team that could run the ball, and they have Max Johnson who has looked great this season. He already went on the road against Miss State, and put up 28 points throwing for 280 yards 4 passing TD’s and 1 INT. Miss State has a similar defense to Kentucky. Miss State QB rating defense 54th vs. avg passing off of 37.75 compared to Kentucky’s 46th ranking against an average opponent passing offense 80th. It was clear as day to me that’s where Florida had to attack Kentucky last week, but Dan Mullen refused to do it, which I get that’s really not the mold of the Florida team and he clearly didn’t trust his QB throwing the ball on the road. Kentucky has faced just one passing offense all year – Missouri. Missouri throws the ball 61% of the time LSU throws the ball 63%. Missouri put up 28 points on Kentucky in their own building allowing 294 passing yards 4 passing TD’s and 1 INT. Kentucky won the game 35-28, because Missouri is not a very good defense. LSU whose defense has not played well still has the players and is significantly better than Missouri. Lastly, this is an awful spot for Kentucky when we look at it. They just upset Florida at home for the first time in 30+ years or something crazy, and they have Georgia on deck. I trust the coaching staff, but it’s kind of hard to not see players looking toward Georgia when you get LSU who is “not as good” as they typically are coming in, but nobody has been better in this spot at motivating his team than Ed Orgeron.. GO TIGERS! |
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10-09-21 | North Texas v. Missouri -19 | 35-48 | Loss | -107 | 39 h 28 m | Show | |
Missouri -19 This game just screams blowout to me with North Texas wanting to play fast with 89 plays per game ranking #1 in the nation, but they rank 125th in yards per play, -2.1 ypp differential. You have an angry Missouri team, particularly their defense, which just gave up 62 to Tennessee. Drinkewitz fired their DL coach, because he felt there was a lack of effort by the DL, and he said this week in press that there is no depth chart, and that whoever practices best is going to play. I think we see a very high effort by this defense, and it’s going to come against an offense that really hasn’t been able to move the ball ranking 117th in success rate, 119th in epa pass offense, and that has come against weak competition. Meanwhile Missouri for all of their defensive struggles at least it has come against quality offensive opponents ranking 46th in ypp. Missouri’s offense on the other hand has not been the problem. They like to run plays, and they like to pass the ball, and I expect them to have a field day against a North Texas defense that ranks 125th in qb rating defense, 115th in epa pass defense. Missouri ranks 29th in success rate offense, and 31st in epa passing offense, and it’s just not a good match up for North Texas. North Texas is also 108th in special teams and has average -9.1 yards in net field position. Missouri is 29th in special teams so expect them to have short fields all day. |
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10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn +15 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Auburn +15 1.1% Free Play We are getting value here with Auburn in my opinion due to that Georgia State near loss, but that was a rough spot for them following the Penn State game with LSU on deck it was a major sandwich game. Here you could argue Georgia who is playing in their first road game (Vanderbilt does not count) at night in front of Auburn where they have not been blown out in a some times should be able to hang around. Georgia is in a sell high situation here and they really haven’t played anyone thus far. The Clemson win which was only won on a pick six looks worse and worse, and until they played a banged up Arkansas team last week they played 4 teams outside the top 90 in offense. Auburn ranks 28th in ypp, and they rank 3rd in rushing ypc, and have Tank Bigsby one of the nations best RB’s. It’s going to be tough to run against Georgia, but Auburn is at home where Bo Nix has been great over his career. Georgia’s offense will likely be without JT Daniels at QB, and Stetson Bennett is serviceable back up, but I don’t like him on the road. I could see him making mistakes on the road in a hostile environment against a strong defensive line that’s getting to the qb ranking 28th in sack @. We should see Kirby Smart do what he typically does, which is go into ultra conservative mode. They already run the ball 61% of the time, and Auburn is 16th in run defense. Auburn also has the advantage in the special teams thus far this season. This is just far too many points in my opinion. |
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10-09-21 | Maryland v. Ohio State -20.5 | 17-66 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
Ohio State -21 I think Ohio State is about to get rolling here after their blowout win against Rutgers who had been playing well. Maryland, I fear is heading in opposite direction after last week’s huge loss on Friday night which was one of their bigger games in recent memory. In that game they had 7 TO’s, and they lost their best player in Demus for the season. How does Baby Tua respond after throwing 5 INT’s, and now going on the road where he feels the pressure of having to do it all without his top target Demus? Ohio State’s defense has improved and they have 7 interceptions over the last 3 games and are the #1 secondary in the P5 with 32 pass breakups. I don’t see it ending well for Baby Tua here. Ohio State’s offense is by far the best offense that Maryland has faced. Kent State was the best offense prior, and Maryland allowed them to get into the red zone 7 times, but held them to 1TD. Ohio State has a top 5 rushing offense and passing offense from an EPA perspective, and they have NFL talent at WR. Ohio State also has motivation to get margin here, as they need to compete with what Iowa did and they also have to keep the momentum from last week. The last time these two teams met, Ohio State put up 73 points, and there is a huge coaching advantage here for Ohio State. HC Ryan Day has been raving on how practice has been going the past two weeks, and it seemed to make a difference against Rutgers. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +5.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
Rutgers +5.5 Buy low and sell high situation here after Rutgers got beat badly by Ohio State who has a serious talent gap, and Rutgers turned the ball over, which they haven’t done all season. Rutgers is much improved under Greg Schiano as HC here. Michigan State meanwhile just keeps winning, and is 5-0, but a very over rated 5-0 in my opinion. Rutgers is at home here, and in my opinion has the better defense, when you look at the fact that they rank 34th in ypc allowed facing 29th average rushing offense. Michigan STaet who ranks 21st stopping the run has gotten there against an average rushing offense ranking 68.5. Michigan State has won games and gotten by winning the TO margin, special teams, and net yard field position, but Rutgers is even or better in all those categories here. So where is the advantage that is making Michigan State a 6 point road favorite? On paper it says their offense is much better ranking 20th in YPP compared to Rutgers which ranks 120th. That makes a ton of sense, but there is a serious gap in strength of schedule here with Michigan State facing an average ypp defense ranking 79.25, compared to Rutgers who has had to face an average 30.25. Rutgers also faced a similar team in Michigan on the road, and it was a 20-13 game. Michigan obviously a better team than Michigan State and would be favored on a neutral. I think Michigan State is going to have major issues moving the ball in this game, and Rutgers who ranks 21st in sack % will give this offensive line some issues. Michigan State is 76th in sack % allowed and that is coming against a weak group of defensive lines averaging 82nd in sack %. Michigan State also converting only 36.96% of their third downs against average defenses ranking 48% in third downs allowed so their offensive numbers should actually be better. Here they go up against a solid Rutgers defense allowing only 31% conversions. Rutgers offense has struggled, but they do have a QB that is a physical runner in Vedrel, and we saw Michigan State struggle a bit against a running QB when they faced Adrian Martinez, and that game was at home. |
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10-09-21 | Oklahoma -3 v. Texas | 55-48 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -3 3.3% play We have automatic line value here in my opinion as Texas continues to be overrated. We also have a 1-4 ATS Oklahoma team we are buying low on against a Texas team that’s 4-1 ATS. The biggest key in the game is stopping Texas Bijan Robinson as Texas runs the ball 65% of the time. Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing ypc allowed, 6th in epa run defense, and Texas has faced just one team ranked in the top 80 in epa run defense, Arkansas. Arkansas dominated Texas and held them to 138 yards on 41 carries. Arkansas 30th ranked run defense came against an average opponent offense ranking 61st, while Oklahoma’s average opponent ranking is 66. Oklahoma’s run defense has faced two rushing offenses similar to the success that Texas has had. Nebraska ranks 30th in rushing ypc, and 8th in epa, and Oklahoma kept them under 100 yards. Kansas State also ranks 35th in ypc rushing, and Oklahoma held them to 100 yards. Bijan Robinson also ran the ball 35 times in the last game. He never had a game with more than 20 carries before. Oklahoma should have plenty of success in my opinion stopping the run. What about the pass? Casey Thompson at QB for Texas so far has been a good things, but when we look at it he has faced defenses ranking 113th, 82nd, and 120th in ypp. TCU gave him some issues, and he’s thrown 1 INT in all of his last three games. Riley recruited Thompson and knows him extremely well. I expect Thompson to have a big TO in this game. There is a reason why he has never been able to crack into the starting QB job, and we may see that here as I think Oklahoma can also pressure him and they have the talent to spy on him as a runner. Oklahoma offensively has struggled this year, but it’s mainly due to not being able to run the ball, and Rattler struggling throwing the ball deep down the field, but he’s actually been the #1 rated QB on throws less than 10 yards, and they are 12th in the nation with 61 passing plays of 10+ yards. Texas defense has shown a lot of weaknesses against the run and pass. They rank 98th in run defense and 95th in opposing QB rating defense, and 93rd in explosive plays allowed. I think this could be a game where Oklahoma rushing offense gets going as they have only faced one rushing defense outside the top 30, and Texas ranks 93rd in explosive rushing plays allowed. In case you are wondering Oklahoma ranks 14th in explosive rushing plays allowed, which should again limit Texas offense here. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas +5.5 v. Ole Miss | 51-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Arkansas +5.5 3.3% play Ole Miss and Arkansas had two similar games against the top two teams in the SEC last week, with similar resulting in blowout losses on the road. I think we are getting value with Arkansas when you look at the fact that they have put up better numbers against a tougher schedule. Arkansas has a +2.3 ypp on the season against opponents who are +0.42 ypp. Ole Miss is +1.5 vs. avg opponent with a 0ypp on average. Arkansas has played A&M, Texas, and Georgia compared to Ole Miss has played Louisville, Tulane, and Alabama. Both of these teams want to run first, Ole Miss 58% run, Arkansas 67% run, and both defenses drop 8 in coverage and dare you to run. Arkansas Defense is much more balanced as they rank top 30 in EPA run defense, EPA pass defense, and Success rate defense. Their defense statistically is better than Alabama, and Ole Miss had major issues with them last year where they only scored 21 points and Matt Corral threw 6 interceptions. All I have heard all week is that Matt Corral the Heisman Trophy favorite is going to get his revenge, but I’m not so sure about that. If you don’t think DC Barry Odom will have some wrinkles in this game you’re surely mistaken, and Arkansas also only allowing 29.17% third down conversions. Ole Miss last year faced 5 teams in the top 50 in EPA pass defense and averaged an entire TD less per game, and Arkansas fits the bill here. Ole Miss defense has had issues against good running teams. They rank 90th in epa run defense, and they struggle against running QB’s. Also noteworthy is KJ Jefferson looked fine last week, and Ole Miss did not face Jefferson last year as it was still Felepe Franks team. Ole Miss gave up 79 yards rushing to Louisville’s Malik Cunningham, 37 yards on 11 carreis to Tulane’s QB, and last year Bo Nix rushed for 52 yards on 10 carries, and Kentucky’s Terry Wilson rushed for 129. I expect a big day and a bounce back performance by the offensive line on the road. I think they will clean up the penalties and it won’t nearly be as loud at 11am in Ole Miss. |
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10-09-21 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
South Carolina +10.5 MAX NCAAF POD Get on the Tennessee hype train after they beat Missouri 62-24 last week, right? 80%+ of the tickets and the money is on Tennessee, but I think this line is inflated here. South Carolina has been good to me this year, and I played them twice as a favorite going 2-0 ATS, and Shane Beamer has his team playing extremely hard right now and 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these two have been decided by single digits and there is no doubt that South Carolina has faced a far tougher schedule, which is giving us a bit more value on the spread. Despite Tennessee wanting to run the ball more, they will face a very good South Carolina defense ranking 18th in QB rating, and 4th in epa pass defense. Their run defense on paper doesn’t look great, but their epa run defense ranks 43rd, which compare that with Missouri ranking 124th. South Carolina does not give up big plays as they rank 3rd in the nation in 20+ yard plays so it’s going to take Tennessee a lot of plays to score TD’s, and I trust South Carolina to make some stops here. South Carolina’s offense has been a struggle, and mainly because they haven’t gotten the running game going. It’s understandable when you face three top 10 run defenses. Here they face Tennessee which ranks 33rd, but a closer look and you see that Tennessee really has not faced a good running offense outside of Florida who ran all over Tennessee. Bowling Green ranks 130th, Missouri, and Pitt prefer to pass and are not running teams. Missouri and Pitt also don’t slow the game down like South Carolina wants to do here, which is also going to make it very difficult for Tennessee to cover double digits in this game. South Carolina is 125th in pace on offense. South Carolina has also struggled in the red zone, but here they face a Tennessee defense that has allowed 71% red zone trips to end in a TD. Last week was nice for Tennessee, but I think this team is really reading the press clippings. Missouri’s head coach fired their DL line coach this week and called out his team for lack of effort. The Tennessee offense going crazy had more to do with Missouri’s missed assignments, and just giving up, while I feel that won’t happen with South Carolina. South Carolina had a hard-fought win last week and should have a chip on their shoulder and play with max effort. I expect this to be a 4-quarter battle. I also don’t think we should sleep on Luke Doty at QB, who is still not 100%, but starting to click with WR Josh Vann who leads the SEC in yards per catch at 21. Shane Beamer and his staff are very familiar with the travel to Knoxville, Tennessee as he was a GA here, and while it’s not a huge note, it does make a difference. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Temple +30 2.2% play Cinci is off their biggest win in program history, and are now looking for style points, but this spread is inflated in my opinion. Cinci, had a bye week before Notre Dame, and teams put a lot of effort into beating Notre Dame. Florida State, Toledo, Prurdue, and Wisconsin are 0-4 ATS after the Notre Dame game, and their margin of loss ATS was 31, 31, 6, and 23 as 3 of them were favorites in their next game, and lost outright. Just because Cinci needs to win with style points does not mean they will. The other team still plays football, and a lot of times a team can make mistakes by trying to run it up on a team. I still don't entirely trust Desmond Ridder and he's going against a pretty good pass defense, that does not give up explosive plays, top 50, but top 25 in passing explosive plays allowed. I honestly did not come away as impressed with Cinci's win, and we all know Notre Dame is not as good as years past so we are giving Cinci far too much credit here. This was a team that Indiana had on the ropes, and Notre Dame nearly lost to a 1-4 Florida State team, 2-2 Toledo team, and the Wisconsin team that's 1-3 was a very misleading final. Temple has a solid defense ranking 34th in ypp allowed, and the last time I checked I still don't believe Cinci to be an elite offense, which is what you need to blow a team out like this. Cinci's offense has gone up against an average opponent ypp ranked 94th, and they are only converting 29% of their conversions on third downs. They are not an explosive offense outside the top 100 so they are winning games wiht special teams, defense, and field position. Temple has proven to protect the ball, and I think D'Wan Mathis taking over at QB is a good thing. He found 11 receivers against Memphis last week, and has shown an ability to run. Now facing Cinci's defense will be a different story, but if there was ever a time to catch this defense, it would be the week after Notre Dame. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Raiders +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 point 2.5 %play |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
PATRIOTS +7 3.3% PLAY |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Steelers +6 5.5% MAX POD |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
CARDINALS +4.5 2.2% PLAY |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 15 m | Show | |
Jets +7 -120 3.5% |
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10-03-21 | Texans +17.5 v. Bills | 0-40 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
TEXANS +17.5 1.1% |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 34 m | Show | |
Oklahoma St -3.5 3.3% play Baylor is off a huge upset of Iowa State, but it was very misleading as they were outgained by 200 yards, and had a kickoff return TD. Iowa State also got just 9pts in their 5 trips inside the Baylor 30. Baylor has a very under rated home field advantage. This week they play a true road game at night for the first time in 2 years. Yes they played road games at Texas State and Kansas, but this is a night game at Oklahoma St where there will be 50K+ fans, and Baylor’s offense is going up against a very good defense that is likely to cause some turnovers that turns this game into an easy win for the Cowboys. Baylor’s offense ranks 14th in ypc, but they have faced an average ypc defense ranking 74th, here they face Oklahoma State which ranks 12th in ypc defense. I also don’t trust Gerry Bohanon on the road in this spot to win the game. When you look at this game Baylor is going to have trouble converting third downs against Oklahoma State that has dominated 3rd down defense allowing 26% conversions, which has carried over to their red zone defens allowing just 36%. Oklahoma State’s offense didn’t score in the second half last week after getting out to a 31-10 lead, but they didn’t need to. I think Spencer Sanders is starting to find his rhythm, and Jaylen Warren is a very under rated RB with power and speed. We saw him absolutely dominate in the Boise game and now he faces a Baylor defense, that ranks 77th in run defense. Iowa State ran for 200+, and I expect Oklahoma State with a mobile QB to put up similar stats. Third downs is where I feel this game will be decided, and Oklahoma State has converted 45.1% of their third downs, which shocked me and they have down it against an average opponent defense ranking 33.3. Baylor comes in 42.8%, but they’re on the road, and the average defenses they have faced have not been good on third down allowing 41.72 on average. Oklahoma State’s defense has been great allowing only 26% conversions, but it has come against some bad offenses on average 37.2% conversions. However, Baylor’s third down defense which has allowed 39% conversions has faced an even worse average 3rd down defense with 31.76%. Finally coaching staff advantage to Oklahoma State over Dave Arranda. Baylor is off to a very faulty 4-0 start and the Bears are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma State, and the favorite is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 42 h 31 m | Show |
Kentucky +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD This will be a sell out crowd Saturday night at Kroger Field against a top 10 Florida team. Mark Stoops has gone head to head with Mullen 7 times and is 4-2-1 ATS with an average margin of cover of 10.37pts. This Kentucky brand has really been built up the last few years, and I think this may be their most balanced team yet. From a statistical perspective Kentucky is really good at defending the run, which is what Florida is really going to be focused on here. Florida ranks #1 in the nation in running the ball, and they do it with a physical ground attack led by QB Emory Jones, but I still think it’s very one dimensional, and the average opponent run defense they have faced ranks 91st in ypc defense. If Kentucky’s excellent group of LB’s can contain Emory or set up some third downs I think they can force some turnovers as this is Emory’s first real road game. They played at South Florida, but that was in their home state and there were more Florida fans there. Kentucky offensively ranks 13th in ypc, and 26th in QB rating so they are a balanced offense. Will Levis has had issues turning the ball over the last two games, but overall he’s added another dimension to the Kentucky offense, and he has the best WR in this game in Won’Dale Robinson. Florida ranks 42nd in ypp defense, but on average they have faced 62nd ranked ypp offense. This is a much bigger game for Kentucky than it is for Florida who has dominated the series, and has not lost here since 1986. However, Kentucky won at Florida just 2 years ago, and Florida’s last 3 visits to Kentucky have been wins of 8, 1, and 5 points. |
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10-02-21 | Texas Tech +7 v. West Virginia | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show | |
Texas Tech +7 3.3% play West Virginia just had two A efforts against VA Tech at home, and then road game at Oklahoma where they came up short losing 13-16. This team has had issues closing out games, and the perception is this team is really good, but I actually felt lucky to win that game against Virginia 2 weeks ago. Texas Tech meanwhile is off a 70-35 beat down by Texas who just looks like a different team since the QB switch. Tech gave up a pick sick, a punt return that was nearly a TD, and just lacked effort all day long. I think Matt Wells is a good enough coach that he can rally the team this week. He is 2-0 vs. Neal Brown and clearly faces an offense that has really struggled thus far this season West Virginia ranks outside the top 75 in ypp, rushing ypc, QB rating, epa offense, success rate, epa run/ epa/pass. Texas Tech’s defense really played well up until last week, holding all previous three opponents under 100 yards rushing. It’s a veteran defense, and I would be shocked if they didn’t come out with a ton more effort this week. Texas Tech offensively lost their starting QB last game, and that probably has inflated this line a bit as well, but Henri Colombi has a ton of playing experience, and was 17-23 3 TD’s and 1 INT vs. Texas last week. He was 22-28 last year vs. West Virginia 1 TD/ 0INT. If there is one weakness for West Virginia’s defense it’s the pass defense as they rank 71st in epa pass defense. I think that leaves the back door open if we need it, but I expect Texas Tech right in this game. They also have a TO margin ranking 26th, compared to West Virginia’s 126th. |
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10-02-21 | Nevada +6.5 v. Boise State | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada +6.5 2.2% play Boise has been very misleading this year, but this number is not reflecting the fact that Boise has been outgained in 3 of their 4 games. Nevada is off a bye, after they gave up 21 unanswered points on the road at Kansas State to lose in misleading fashion. Honestly both of these teams are fairly similar statistically and have done it against similar strength of schedules. Neither team has been able to run the ball ranking 127th and 118th, although Nevada has faced tougher opponent run defense. Both teams also have very good QB’s and NFL target as their #1 in Boise Shakir, and Nevada’s Doubs. Nevada in my opinion has the better QB in Carson Strong. Nevada’s pass defense is a bit better according to EPA/pass as they rank 47th and that has come against an avg opponent epa/pass offense ranking 52nd. Compare that with Boise who ranks 99th vs. average 45th. I also like that Nevada has already played at Cal, and won, and played at Kansas State so a third road game should not phase them and Boise has BYU on deck. I just feel like this game should be -3 Boise, but we are getting Nevada at +6. |
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10-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Kent State -16.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
Kent State -16.5 1.1% Free Play When have you seen the public back a more than 2 TD dog in the MAC to the tune of 66%? Bowling Green upset Minnesota on the road, and Kent State on paper got clobbered by Maryland. Bowling Green in a major hang over here going up against a very good Kent State offense that likes to play fast. I think Kent State who arguably had the toughest schedule of any G5 team facing Texas A&M, Iowa, and Maryland already, and there is no way for Bowling Green to keep up in this one. |
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10-02-21 | Troy v. South Carolina -6.5 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 39 h 60 m | Show | |
South Carolina -6.5 2.2% play In my opinion this is not a good match up for Troy yet the line has dropped 2.5 points with a low total going under the TD here, which I’ll absolutely take. The story is Troy just lost as a 24 point favorite and that’s why they are getting some action here this week as on paper South Carolina’s offense ranks 104th, and Troy’s defense ranks 6th from a YPP perspective, but the strength of schedules could not be any different. Troy’s opponents average YPP differential are -1.76 yards per play, while South Carolina’s opponents are +1.8. Troy’s strength is against pass heavy teams, and they have the #1 sack %, but they are playing South Carolina a physical team, that’s going to lean on the run, and their defense. Zaquandre White is averaging over 6 ypc, and while Troy ranks 10th in ypc defens,e they have faced an average ypc offense ranking 107th. They gave up 129 yards rushing at LA Monroe last week who rank 129th. This is Troy’s third road game in 3 weeks, and having to face an SEC opponent that is not overlooking them, because they are desperate for a win to keep their bowl hopes alive is not a good spot. Troy was 31-8 before they hired Chip Lindsey, they are 12-15 since. They lost 10-42 at Missouri in 2019, and in their two games against physical opponents last year they lost 48-7, and 47-10. I think South Carolina’s defense is being overlooked here. They have an SEC leading 10 forced turnovers. I really like this coaching staff, and I expect they should be able to dominate a Troy offense that ranks 107th in YPP. They prefer to pass the ball, but South Carolina ranks 30th in EPA/pass defense and that has come against an average epa/passing offense ranking 34.5. |
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10-02-21 | Texas v. TCU +4 | 32-27 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
TCU +4.5 2.2% / TCU +165 1% TCU played their worst game of the season, while Texas played their best. Now the hype for Texas is back after their last 2 games beating Rice 58-0, and Texas Tech 70-35. They have their biggest game of the season next week in the Red River Rivalry. The last 14 seasons Texas has gone 2-10-1 ATS the week before their rivalry game against Oklahoma, and have missed covering the spread by 16.7pts on average in those 10 losses. TCU has really dominated this series covering 6 of the last 7 by an average of 19.75points. I think it’s the reason the books are reluctant to move this game off 4 despite 90% tickets, and 72% of the money on Texas. TCU’s defense has been pretty bad this year, but Texas has not been much better. They both rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense, and their pass defense is also outside the top 100 in epa/pass allowed. TCU has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan who is a dual threat QB, and their offense has been great to start the season. TCU will be home for this game, and both teams want to run the ball, and TCU is the better running team actually as they rank 8th in epa/run and that comes against a far tougher schedule of defense ranking 28.5, compared to Texas who ranks 49th, against an average run defense ranking 74. I know Texas switched their QB to Thompson, but it’s hard to forget their performance in their last road game against Arkansas where they were completely dominated. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show | |
Dolphins +4 3.3% play / 1% on Dolphins +170 |
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09-26-21 | Colts +5.5 v. Titans | 16-25 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
Colts +5.5 3.3% play |
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09-26-21 | Ravens v. Lions +7.5 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Lions +7.5 1.1% play |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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09-25-21 | New Mexico -1 v. UTEP | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAAF POD I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite. They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye. Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M. Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons. In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips. I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game. |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
Nebraska +5 3.3% PLAY Michigan State just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and they host Nebraska at night who is desparate for a big time win. Nebraska has played extremely well since losing to Illinois to start the season and was in that game against Oklahoma last week on the road. I like that Nebraska got to play on the road in a hostile environment and use that to their advantage for this upcoming week. Michigan State’s weakness has been Nebraska’s strength. Nebraska ranks 21st in EPA/pass, and 52% in passing success rate, and they are only getting healthier at WR. Martinez has done a 180 since that Illinois game, and it seems like he’s playing with a different level of confidence. This Michigan State secondary ranks 83rd in EPA/pass defense and gave up 6 explosive passing play to Northwestern of all offenses. Nebraska has the added dimension of Martinez being a threat to run, and that should open up for some explosive plays in this game for this Nebraska offense. Just 28% of the tickets on Nebraska here, but I think they are a live dog and can pull an upset |
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09-25-21 | Kent State +14.5 v. Maryland | 16-37 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 57 m | Show | |
Kent State +14.5 3.3% play I almost go to the window with Kent State last week, but wanted a +24, that never came. They lost at Iowa 30-7, but it was 16-7 at the half, and Kent State had a 1st and goal in the 3rd quarter to cust the game to 16-14 and they fumbled. They were also down 10-3 in week 1 at Texas A&M, so playing on the road against Maryland is not going to phase this team. Iowa and Texas A&M have top 10 coaches, and while Maryland is 3-0, I just don’t think they are as well coached to pull away from a solid MAC team, when they have Iowa coming to town next. Maryland’s defense is also not nearly as good as A&M or Iowa, and they certainly don’t have the home field advantage that those two teams have so I expect Kent State to get the offense going here a bit. Maryland ranks 37th in YPP allowed, but the offenses they have faced are Illinois ranking 92nd, West Virginia ranking 61st, and Howard. Kent State defensively have some ball hawking corners, and are +7 in TO margin so far this season. I could see Kent State sticking around, and Maryland looking ahead to a massive game against Iowa thinking they’ll be 4-0. |
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09-25-21 | Notre Dame v. Wisconsin -6 | 41-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -6.5 3.3% play We have the #12 team against the #18 team, and the #18 team is 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field (Soldier Field). We have just 30% of the tickets on Wisconsin but the money is about even, and the line which opened up at 5.5 is out to 6.5. Notre Dame has not played well this season despite their 3-0 record. I have major questions on the offensive line, as they have already given up 14 sacks, and while Wisconsin doesn’t sack the QB they have 28 total pressures in 2 games. Of course the story here is Jack Coan, at QB for Notre Dame who came from Wisconsin, and I think the advantage lies on the side of Wisconsin’s defense and Jim Leonard the DC who has had plenty of time to go back and look at Jack Coan’s tape, during their bye week. Coan is not helped at all by the running game that is averaging just 2.9ypc. At the end of the day I’m backing the team that is better running the ball, and defending the run. Wisconsin ranks 44th in EPA/run, and 2nd in EPA/run defense while Notre Dame is 121st in EPA/run offense, and 78th in EPA/run defense. Wisconsin has clearly played a tougher opponent in Penn State, and that loss looks better given how Penn St has looked so far, and Wisconsin really should have won that game, but had 4 opportunities in side Penn State’s 25 yard line and had 0 points. They’ll have to change that this week, and if they can avoid costly turnovers I believe they win this game by double digits. |
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09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse +7 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Syracuse +7 3.3% play Syracuse was a 19.5 point favorite on the road against Liberty to open the 2019 season, and won 24-0, and are now a 6.5 point home dog. That’s a 30+ point adjustment in under 2 years. I just think its far too much I don’t care how Syracuse has played and how great Liberty has played. Last year Liberty came here and did not have any crowd to deal with and although they won 38-21, they relied on 3 explosive TD’s to get there. Syracuse through 3 games is 3rd in the nation having only allowed 18 plays of 10+ yards. They also held Liberty to 3-12 on third down, but Liberty was able to convert both 4th down plays, but were just 2-4 in the red zone. Syracuse defense looks much improved this year they are only allowing 1.8 ypc, and they’ll have 30,000+ fans backing them up in this spot against a team that is on the fringe of being ranked again. Liberty has shown some issues in protecting do it all QB Malik Willis allowing 3 sacks per game, and that just does not translate well on the road in a very noisy environment on a short week. Liberty is actually worse than Syracuse at protecting the QB, and the home field advantage should certainly make a big difference. Remember there were 0 fans here in last year’s game. Malik Willis has been great, but his home/away splits are not great. He has 20 passing TD’s 1 INT at home, and on the road he has 8 TDs to 5 INT’s, and he has not started on the road in front of a crowd more than 4,000 people. There will be over 30,000 at the Carrier Dome Friday night where Syracuse has upset Clemson in recent years. Both teams want to run the ball and both teams have done a great job at running and stopping the run, against a weak strength of schedule. I think Taj Harris coming back for Syracuse at WR could be the difference tonight as Syracuse gets the upset. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | 30-31 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
App State -7 2.2% play Boht of these teams have a common opponent in East Carolina and both teams handled them similarly and struggle din the 4th quarter. Marshall completely fell apart and lost by 4 blowing a 17 point lead, while App State won by 14. Marshall had 3 key turnovers in the game, and I just don't trust this team on a short week to go into App State, a very difficult place to play and play their best game. This is a team that 9 turnovers in 3 games, and ranking 95th in rushign success rate on defense. That's just not a great recipe for going on the road and getting a victory against an App State team that loves to run the ball. Marshall's defensive strength is their ability to get after the QB, with 17 sacks, but App State ranks 22nd in protecting the QB, and I think the ability to run will allow them to continue that success. This is also a big revenge game for App State, a team that has 15 super seniors. They have 10 returning starters on defense, and they lost this game last year 17-7 getting out played in the trenches. Marshall just does not seem like the same defense as last year under the new coaching staff. Giving up 42 points to EAst CArolina, a offense that really has not looked good this year is quite concerning. Add that with Marshall's QB Grant Wells who has more INT than TD passes this year and was only 11-25 0TD/ 1 INT vs. App State at HOME a year ago, and I think you have a recipe for the home favorite here. App State has also been better against the run than the stats have suggested. They gave up 175 yards rushing against Miami, but 79 of those came against QB D'eriq King. Grant Wells is not going to pull of anything like that in this game. Marshall's offense also has been relying on the explosive plays ranking 6th in the country, but I think that's partially due to the level of competition that they have faced, Navy, NC Central, and ECU. App State is 8-2 vs. C-USA teams, and the Sun Belt which is 58-68 lifetime has really turned the tables the last 4 years they have gone 24-10 against the C-USA with margins of victories well over a TD! |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
CHARGERS -3 1.1% |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Vikings +3.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 31 m | Show | |
Panthers +3.5 3.3% play |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Bears -1.5 2.2% NFL PLAY |
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09-19-21 | Rams v. Colts +4 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
COLTS +3.5 3.3% PLAY |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Eagles +3 2.2% pla y |
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09-18-21 | Oklahoma State +3.5 v. Boise State | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
Oklahoma St +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD We have a 0-2 ATS team facing a phony 2-0 ATS Boise State team. I have not been impressed with Boise State thus far who really should not have covered either game. Against UCF they were outgained by 290 yards and lost by 5 points and covered the spread thanks to a 14 point swing as they had a 100 yard pick six. Against UTEP they enjoyed a +5 TO margin, and scored 31 points in a 3 minute span of the game. Oklahoma State is getting no love here, and it’s exactly the situation I want to back Mike Gundy in. Over the last 10 years he is 10-6 ATS as a road dog and 27-11 ATS in non-conference games. This is also a better matchup for the weather as it looks like 15mph winds with 40mph gusts, and Oklahoma State has the better rushing attack and run defense, and feature a mobile QB in Spencer Sanders. I think Boise State’s defense which ranked 25th last year in YPP, and 10th in sack % could cause some issues as they like to run confusing style defense with a lot of movement and could force a turnover here to allow them to pull the upset, but I expect a tight game and the +4 is well worth it. |
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09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Washington -17 2.2% |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 36 m | Show | |
Purdue +7.5 2.2% The biggest red flag for Notre Dame is their struggles on the offensive line, and struggles to run the ball, which has bee a strength for this team. They are averaging just 2.7 ypc, and have allowed 10 sacks. Purdue has really shined this season in stopping the run, and their best defensive player Kalarflis could be a difference maker in this game as Purdue is playing with house money to pull the upset. Notre Dame has actually been outgained on the ground 198-99, and while Purdue is not likely to do much on the ground they are just as talented in the passing game if not more than Notre Dame. Jack Coan has been a great presence in the huddle and has played great, but Jake Plummer and David Bell have been great for Purdue, and Jeff Brohm is an excellent coach, 17-5 ATS in his last 22 as a dog. Purdue 18-4 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog. This just feels like a down season for Notre Dame, and a chance for Purdue to pull an upset in the instate rivalry game that has not been played for 7 years. |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami -5.5 1.1% Free Play Nobody has faced a tougher schedule to start the season than Miami facing App State and Alabama. We clearly have some line value here with an 0-2ATS team taking on a 2-0 ATS team. Two key factors why I like Miami this week. D’eriq King seems to be back after rushing for 79 yards a week ago, and the havoc Miami’s defenses typically cause opposing offenses. Michigan State has not played anyone, and getting far too much respect here for a unit that was really bad last year, outside the top 100. I don’t see them continuing to dominate and they faced an FCS foe, and a Northwestern team that had to replace more starters than anyone else in the country. The speed of Miami, in the hot humid Florida weather will ultimately be the difference as Miami will be able to force some turnovers, and King will lead his team to a victory to get their season back on track. Michigan State’s defense did give up 70% completion 3 TD and 0INT to Northwestern, and King is much more dynamic player. |
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09-18-21 | Western Michigan +15.5 v. Pittsburgh | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Western Mich +15 3.3% play Western Mich was a 17 point dog at Michigan in week 1 and failed to cover, and they’ll get another shot at P5 team in Pitt that has been extremely inconsistent, and just 3-9-1 ATS as a double digit favorite. Pitt is a totally different team offensively than Michigan, and Western Michigan really matches up better. Michigan ran for over 300 yards against Western Michigan in week 1 and that’s just not going to happen with Pitt when you consider how one dimensional, they have been the last couple of years and have really struggled running the ball. Pitt’s offense is led by a future NFL QB Kenny Pickett, but they lack explosiveness, and get it done with methodical offense, and they are not the type of team that can put the game away with their running game, which will leave the back door wide open, IF we even need that. Western Michigan’s defensive strengths match up well with Pitt’s offense. They ranked 30th in sack % last year, and their secondary is also the strength, which bodes well against Pitt’s passing offense. Pitt’s offense despite putting up 41 points at Tennessee really did struggle with less than 5 yards per play, and only a 38% success rate. Western Michigan’s offense is balanced, which will allow them to score some points on the road against a tough defense. They put up over 120 yards rushing against Michigan, and scored 14 points, but they lost their 2nd WR Skyy Moore early in that game and he will return for this game. Their offensive line is a strength and ranked top 30 in protecting their QB who has not turned the ball over in his career. Pitt has looked good early on, but the defense will take a step back this year, and I think this line is inflated due to their 2-0 record after they beat two really bad teams in Umass and Tennessee. I cashed on Pitt -3 last week, but honestly felt fortunate. Western Michigan last week held Illinois State to a record low 57 yards and forced nine three and outs. Illinois State is an FCS foe, but regularly in the Top 25 so that defensive performance by Western Michigan was really impressive. |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Giants +3.5 2.2% play |
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09-12-21 | Browns +5 v. Chiefs | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Browns +5 3.3% play |
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09-12-21 | Chargers v. Washington Football Team -1 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Washington -1 3.3% PLAY |
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09-12-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bills | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Steelers +6.5 3% play |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona +3 5.5% NFL POD |
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09-11-21 | San Diego State v. Arizona -2 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
Arizona -2 Arizona out performed the market last week as they out gained BYU in their 24-16 loss as double digit dog. This team fought back from a 21-3 deficit, which is not a surprise when you look at the coaching staff they assembled. Jedd Fisch, the HC spent last year as the QB coach with the Patriots under legendary HC Bill Bellichick, and previous two years with the Rams under Sean McVay. His offensive coordinator Brennan Carrol is the son of Pete Carrol where he spent years on the Seahawks coaching staff, and to go along with these young guys they bring in DC, Don Brown. Brown offers the veteran presence and has turned around defenses in all his stops including CONNECTICUT. Yes, UCONN, under Brown as DC was the 58th ranked defense and then 10th in 2012. He then went on to coach for 3 years at Boston College where he improved their defense from 88th, 33rd, to 5th from YPP perspective, and then later at Michigan where he had 4 top 10 defenses in his 5 seasons. San Diego State is a one-dimensional offense that relies on the running game, which has not produced well under Brady Hoke. In fact this team is not the same team that would compete for the Mountain West. They are just 18-16 under Hoke. QB Jordon Brookshine was 7-20 with 115 yards, and the offense turned the ball over 3 times, and trailed New Mexico State 10-0 in the first half. That was the same New Mexico State team that did no play a game in 2020, and lost to UTEP 30-3. I don’t think it’s a good match up for the offense against an aggressive style defense that Arizona will be playing under Don Brown. This defense will have struggles this year, but against teams that struggle offensively is where I can see Arizona having success. San Diego State still runs their 3-3-5 on defense and have remained as stout as ever, but traveling on the road against this coaching staff with the players buying in trying to end a 13 game losing streak just feels like a game that Arizona will want to have to set the culture of the program for the future under this coaching staff. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -116 | 28 h 51 m | Show | |
Washington +7 3.3% play |
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09-11-21 | NC State v. Mississippi State +1.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Miss State +1.5 3.3% play I have the wrong team favored here. Playing on the road in Starkville is not an easy place to play a road game. NC State did not have good road stats in a year where there were no fans in 2020, and the ACC has been down the last few years. This is a team that missed Clemson last year, and some of their stats are a bit misleading in my opinion, because they played in a conference that was down. Last week the SEC dominated the ACC, 3-0 ATS, Alabama covered over Miami, Georgia over Clemson and Ole Miss over Louisville. NC State getting love after blowing out South Florida 45-0, as they are getting 84% of the tickets in this one. USF is in a complete rebuild and one thing I found interesting from that game was the fact that NC State did not record a sack. If you are going to stop the Air Raid you better be able to get to the QB. Tony Gibson the NC State defensive coordinator has faced Texas Tech a few times over his career when he was at West Virginia, and in 6 match ups his defenses gave up 16 TD’s and 7 INT’s, and 30.5ppg. Last year this NC State pass defense ranked 42nd, but they faced just 3 top 60 passing offenses, and allowed 35.33ppg, and went 1-2, a 1 point win over Liberty. Defending Mike Leach’s scheme is not that simple, and unless you prepare for it for weeks before a bowl game or a bye week, and memorize route trees, it’s going to be hard to stop. It makes sense that Miss State struggled a bit against Louisiana Tech to open the season before scoring 20 4th quarter points as LA Tech had all summer to study to come up with a game plan. Miss State’s defense should be very good once again as they have 8 returning starters led by an experienced secondary, but the defensive line should once again be a strength. They ranked 27th in stopping the run last year while NC State averaged just 2.75ypc on the road last year. They’ll need to get the running game going to take the crowd out of the game, but I’m not sure they can. |
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09-11-21 | Texas v. Arkansas +7 | Top | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
Arkansas +7 4.4% TEXAS IS BACK! We have heard this before, and this team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win, while Arkansas 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a dog. Arkansas will be hosting arguably their biggest home game in quite in a while as they host their old SWC rival. This is a huge game for Arkansas, and as good as Texas looked in week 1, Hudson Card has to prove it on the road against a senior laden defense that was a top 50 pass defense last year and brings back 10 starters. Texas is getting the majority of the money and tickets, and I think it’s because people think Arkansas win was misleading against Rice as they trailed 17-7 in the third quarter before rattling off 31 unanswered points. A lot of their struggles were self inflicted as their first 18 drives averaged the 17 yard line. They also had a punt blocked, bad snap on third down, and penalty issues that led to the poor field position. They lost one of their defensive leaders due to targeting in Grant Morgan, but he’ll be back to start this game. KJ Jefferson also seemed to have first game jitters that after he connected with Tyson Morris went away. It seemed mental to me as Arkansas cruised after that. PFF ranked KJ’s performance as the #1 QB rushing performance of week 1. Texas stopped a relatively mobile Levi Lewis in game 1, but that’s not a huge part of Lewis game in 2018 he averaged just 1.6 yards per carry, 2019 2.83, 2020 he averaged 6.09ypc, but 50% of his yards came in 2 games so just because Texas stopped Lewis does not mean they’ll stop Jefferson who is a lot bigger than Lewis, and has a future 1st or 2nd round pick at WR in Treylon Burks. Texas offense is not going to look as great here on the road. Arkansas home/away splits are outstanding where they play significantly better at home as they allowed 6 passing TD and 9INT at home compared to 12/4 ratio on the road, and they allowed 1.55ypc less at home than on the road and held a Georgia running game to 2.88 to open last season. They were without their 320lb starting DT Ridgeway last week, and get him back here, which should help free up the LB. Speaking of health, Texas loses their starting RG who is questionable for this game. Lastly, I really like the coaching staff at Arkansas, while Sark is great and has proven he can rebuild it’s just their second game. OC Kendall Briles in his second year, and DC Barry Odom has led some very good SEC Defenses in the past. This line also opened up at 4.5 and moved to 7, with resistance at some of the sharper books likes like Bookmaker. |
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09-11-21 | California +11.5 v. TCU | 32-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
Cal +11.5 Cal favored last week, and got out to a 14-0 lead by running the ball, but ironically switched to passing the ball and had red zone struggles. This is still an excellent defense with leaders on that side of the ball, and they just played one of the top offenses from 2020, and a future NFL QB in Carson Strong. Cal opened as a 9.5 point dog and is now out to 11.5, which is a 2 point line move in favor of the favorite, which I find value on the dog. Since 2015 the home favorite in P5 during week 1 and week 2 with a line move of 2-3.5 are just 26-46 ATS. This is also a repeat of the 2018 Bowl game where Cal lost 10-7, but had 5 turnovers. I think Cal’s QB Chase Garbers can be better here, and I think they showed last week they can run the ball against this type of defense, that plays two high safeties. I would hope the offense learned from last week that they should keep running the ball, and TCU deploys a 4-2-5 defense, with high safeties which will invite Cal to run the ball. I think we have two similar teams here, and Cal is back in their role as a dog that they like under Head Coach Wilcox who is 19-8 ATS as a dog with 12 outright upsets. TCU as a home favorite just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games. Cal played a game that went deep into the 4th quarter that they eventually lost while TCU cruised past a terrible FCS team. I think Cal gets more from their game experience, and I think they will be a pesky group here. Worth noting, TCU has played 3 games vs. PAC 12, and while they are 3-0 their wins have come by 6, 2, and 3. |
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09-11-21 | South Carolina -2 v. East Carolina | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
South Carolina -2 2.2% play South Carolina had a great debut without their starting QB And RB dominating an FCS foe in a 46-0 win to open up the Shane Beamer debut as they held opponent Eastern Illinois to 109 total yards. They had a defensive TD and were great on special teams. Now they’ll get their starting QB Luke Doty back as well as the SEC leading rusher Kevin Harris after they rushed for 254 yards a week ago. Doty adds another element to the offense as he can also be a runner, and East Carolina gave up over 200 yards rushing to App State last week. South Carolina won’t be cocky going into this one as the coaching staff has experience looking past an East Carolina team and then losing. Shane Beamer and Torrian Gray were on Virginia Tech staff that lost here a week after they beat Ohio State, the eventual National Champ that year. Clayton White was on the staff at NC State that lost 33-30. OC Marcus Satterfield said, “I played their once when we were at Temples, and it’s one of the toughest places to play a college football game…We have to go in there and be prepared for one of the toughest things we’ve been in our life.” The coaches spent all week coaching up the players not to take ECU lightly, and they clearly have the right coaches to do so. Shane Beamer also recruited East Carolina’s QB Holton Ahlers, which is always an advantage. Ahlers was under pressure last week and his offensive line allowed 18 pressures, and I don’t see that drastically changing this week with a quality defensive line from South Carolina. South Carolina also really needs this game if they are going to get to a bowl game. They really can’t afford to look past East Carolina and a road game at Georgia next week that likely they know they can’t win. |
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09-11-21 | Pittsburgh -3 v. Tennessee | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Pitt -3 2.2% Play Tenn led Bowling Green 14-6 at the half. Bowling Green has been terrible the last few years were outgained in the MAC by 150 yards last year. This is a rebuilding year for Tenn under Josh Heupel, who wants to play extremely fast, but the only problem with that is the offense he has just isn’t very good, and he’s going to hurt his defense in this game, which could lead to Pitt winning by double digits. Pitt has an advantage at QB with veteran Kenny Pickett over Joe Milton, the Michigan transfer. Milton will probably turn the ball over in this game, and as big is he is he’s not much of a runner, and Pitt can shut down a running game. They held UMASS to under 50 yards rushing, and always has a great run defense and overall defense under Narduzi. It’s also worth noting Pitt went on the road in 2019 as a +9 point dog at Josh Heupel’s UCF team and won 35-34 after building an early 21-0 lead. Tennessee’s offense is not nearly as good as UCF, and if Pitt gets up early I think they can build on their lead and cruise here |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | 27-38 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
LSU -2.5 2.2% play |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Clemson -3 4.4% NCAAF POD Georgia is getting a lot of hype for all the players they brought in, but there are some question marks I would still need answered to give them this type of respect. The big one is about their QB and play calling from Todd Monken. Is Kirby Smart really going to let him play call and let this offense go? I think we will see more aggressive play, but is JT Daniels good enough and does he have the help around him for this game? JT Daniels hype has always been a big thing he was the #3 QB coming out of high school behind Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Field. He put together a great final 4 games for Georgia with 10 TD and 2 INT. Great, but who did he actually do it against? In his two road games he played South Carolina and Missouri with roughly 10,000 fans, and both defenses were not good at all against the pass. In fact the 4 teams he faced ranked 95th, 106th, 58th, and 25th. The top two pass defenses were not as good as the numbers suggest considering they faced an average opponent QB rating of 86th and 75th. In the bowl game against Cincinnati we saw JT Daniels struggle under pressure. Georgia has an inexperienced offensive line that ranked 73rd in passing down sack rate allowed and will go up against a Clemson DL that is #1 in havoc generated form the front 7. Brent Venables is still here as the DC and not going anywhere so there is a lot of stability. JT Daniels has really struggled in his career under pressure. According to PFF, in 91 passes under pressure he has had 15 turnover worthy plays and just 26 completions. Clemson’s defense returns 10 starters and ranked 8th in ypp allowed last year. This is easily the best defense JT Daniels has ever faced in his life. Clemson breaks in a young QB in DJ Uiagalelai, but he got two starts last year. In those two starts he faced two solid pass defenses in Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road. Clemson did not lose the game against Notre Dame because of DJ. In those two games he had 69% completion percentage, 4 TD to 0INT, and 9.18 yards per play. Clemson OL is a bit under sized, but I think they’ll use tempo here to their advantage against a Georgia defense that wants to stay fresh. Georgia’s secondary was 51st in QB rating allowed last year and that came against an average 79th ranking QB rating opponent. Alabama and Florida were the only top 2 passing offenses and they lost both giving up 41 and 44 points. Georgia lost their top 4 CB’s in terms of snap count, which could be a good thing, but they brough in a pre-season All-American Tykee Smith from West Virginia, but he’s out for this game, and they get Clemson CB Derion Kendrick to transfer in, but Kendrick in the big games in 2019 vs. LSU, and 2020 vs Ohio State was targeted by Fields and Burrow and he gave up 13 receptions 274 yards, and 5TD’s!! I feel Clemson is still ahead of Georgia, and the price of -3 is nice. Clemson almost has to feel like the underdog here. This game is a neutral field |
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09-04-21 | Baylor v. Texas State +14 | 29-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Texas State +14 2.2% play |
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09-04-21 | Stanford +3 v. Kansas State | 7-24 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Stanford +3 1.1% |
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09-03-21 | Duke -6.5 v. Charlotte | 28-31 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Duke -6.5 3.3% play |
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09-02-21 | Boise State +6.5 v. Central Florida | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Boise State +7 -125 buy ½ 2.5% play Boise vs UCF is one of the better G5 matchups, and now that this is climbing to +7 I feel good about Boise. The noise here is can Boise contend with the heat, humidity, and a near full crowd. Boise has been preparing with noise machines, and playing indoors rising the humidity with water on the field. This is also nothing new for them traveling and playing the state of Florida and they’ve done very well in the past against the AAC, 5-0 ATS. We have two new coaching staffs with Andy Avalos taking over for Boise, and Gus Malzahn taking over for UCF. There are a lot more moving parts with the UCF hire as Malzahn has coaches he hired that he hasn’t coached with, and new players, transfers to work in where Avalos kept a DC, and has 18 returning starters, and he’s aware of this culture of Boise where he played as a LB, and coached from 212-2018, before taking the Oregon DC position where he had success, and faced off to start the 2019 season against Gus Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers. Oregon was right in that game despite losing 21-17, and I expect a close game here albeit higher scoring. Boise has more stability in their roster and coaching and system for game #1 of a season and I feel that counts for something. We have two very good QB’s in Hank Bachmeier vs. Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel is getting a ton of hype and will be going up against a talented defense, and deep secondary, while Boise will go against a very raw back of the defense for UCF, and they do so with an inexperienced receiver group. While, Boise has Sr. WR Khalil Shakir who will likely be playing in the NFL next year. Knowing Gus Malzahn he needs to get the running game going, and it appears Isaiah Bowser (Northwestern transfer) will probably get the nod due to injuries, but going up against a Boise run defense that is usually stout. Both teams underperformed statistically last year, and Boise’s numbers were really down, and I think that is why UCF is getting 74% of the tickets and 85% of the money, but I don’t think it’s warranted. Boise had a ton of COVID issues last year with multiple games of 20-30 guys missing in action. Both of these teams played BYU last year and had very similar results, and Boise played without Bachmeier. I would say there is not a lot that separates these two teams, and I’m not as high on the Malzahn hire as others so I really like Boise to keep this close and have a chance to pull the upset. |
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08-28-21 | UTEP v. New Mexico State +10 | 30-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
New Mexico State +10 1.1% Free Play |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | 22-30 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Nebraska -6.5 -113 3% play The narrative is to fade Nebraska, because Scott Frost is under investigation for NCAA violations, and this team has been a dumpster fire since he came here. They are on a road facing an Illinois team that returns 18 starters and beat Nebraska last year pretty badly on the road, but this Nebraska team has revenge on their mind and all summer leading up to this. Nebraska had -15 TO’s last year, which took points off the board and put their defense in a bad situation and were -5 TO in the game against Illinois a season ago. Is Nebraska’s run defense going to be bad again? They return 10 starters for a unit that should only improve. They gave up 285 yards and 4 rushing TD’s to Illinois last year, but Illinois had the worst run defense allowing over 5 yards per carry ranking 105th, and that came against rushing offenses that averaged 84.75th rushing offense, compared to Nebraska who ranked 57th against an average rushing offense faced of 63. Brandon Peters for Illinois is getting a lot of hype, and I don’t understand why. He doesn’t have any weapons at WR, and this passing offense ranked 90th in EPA pass offense, and their pass defense ranked 115th. Nebraska was not much better on either side, but they were better ranking 82nd and 61st in overall QB rating defense, which was significantly better and against better talent than Illinois faced. Illinois passing defense ranked 124th, against an average opponent QB rating 87. Adrian Martinez doesn’t scare anyone at QB, but I think they added some talent at WR in the transfer portal that they haven’t had before, and I like to see Matt Lubrick, the OC in his second year. Lubrick at Oregon (2016), and Washington (2017 & 18) led all 3 teams to top 25 offenses. Value here with Nebraska they closed -17 at home, which would indicate a -11 on the road. Brett Bielema taking over Illinois should not be worth 4 points, and neither should one game where Nebraska had 5 turnovers. This is a team that hung right with Northwestern on the road, and Iowa on the road. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Saints -3 4.4% |
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01-17-21 | Browns +10 v. Chiefs | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Browns +10 2% |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Bills -2.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rams +7 -120 3% |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 216 h 16 m | Show |
ohio st +8.5 5.5% |
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01-10-21 | Browns +6 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Browns 2% |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints -10 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Saints -10 3% |