11-01-20 |
Rams v. Dolphins +3.5 |
|
17-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
11-01-20 |
Vikings +7 v. Packers |
Top |
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
San Diego State v. Utah State +8.5 |
|
38-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Ohio State -10 v. Penn State |
|
38-25 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Boise State v. Air Force +14 |
|
49-30 |
Loss |
-107 |
27 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State |
|
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-20 |
TCU -2.5 v. Baylor |
|
33-23 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
10-30-20 |
Hawaii v. Wyoming -1 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 45 m |
Show
|
Wyoming -1 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
10-29-20 |
South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -3 |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-25-20 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 |
|
34-37 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
10-25-20 |
Bucs v. Raiders +5.5 |
|
45-20 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
10-25-20 |
Browns -3 v. Bengals |
|
37-34 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
10-25-20 |
Bills v. Jets +10.5 |
|
18-10 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Michigan -3 v. Minnesota |
|
49-24 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Iowa State +3 v. Oklahoma State |
|
21-24 |
Push |
0 |
24 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Auburn -3.5 v. Ole Miss |
|
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-20 |
Temple +13.5 v. Memphis |
|
29-41 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
10-23-20 |
UL-Lafayette -3 v. UAB |
|
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-19-20 |
Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 |
|
26-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
10-18-20 |
Browns v. Steelers -3 |
|
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
10-18-20 |
Texans +4 v. Titans |
Top |
36-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Boston College v. Virginia Tech -11.5 |
|
14-40 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 |
Top |
28-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 36 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Central Florida -3 v. Memphis |
|
49-50 |
Loss |
-105 |
39 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Louisville +17 v. Notre Dame |
|
7-12 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-20 |
Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
19-31 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 32 m |
Show
|
Pitt +14 buy half point 4% pal y
|
10-16-20 |
BYU v. Houston +5.5 |
|
43-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
10-13-20 |
Bills v. Titans +3.5 |
|
16-42 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
10-11-20 |
Colts +1 v. Browns |
Top |
23-32 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
10-11-20 |
Raiders +11.5 v. Chiefs |
|
40-32 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-11-20 |
Rams v. Washington Football Team +7.5 |
|
30-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 |
|
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Tennessee v. Georgia -12.5 |
|
21-44 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Duke v. Syracuse +2 |
|
38-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-20 |
Virginia Tech +4.5 v. North Carolina |
|
45-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 53 m |
Show
|
Virginia Tech +4.5 2.2% play
|
10-10-20 |
Oklahoma v. Texas +3 |
|
53-45 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
Texas +3 2.2% play I will take the more experienced QB who is less likely to make big mistakes in this game. Oklahoma is not nearly as dynamic as years past, and starting a red shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler, who has been great number wise, but he really does not have a lot of help around him. From his offensive line, running game, or defense. What happens is he presses late, and tries to do it all when the game is on the line. It leads to costly turnovers. Texas is desparate for a win here, and Tom Herman knows it. Herman has been a great coach as a dog throughout his career, and now that this has ticked up to +3, with 80% of the $ on Oklahom from one source, I'm a buyer on Texas.
|
10-09-20 |
Louisville -4.5 v. Georgia Tech |
|
27-46 |
Loss |
-111 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
LOuisville -4.5 2.2% play
|
10-08-20 |
Tulane v. Houston -6.5 |
|
31-49 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
10-04-20 |
Eagles +8 v. 49ers |
|
25-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
10-04-20 |
Chargers +7.5 v. Bucs |
|
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
10-03-20 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State +7.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 24 m |
Show
|
Iowa State +7.5 1.1% fre ePLay
|
10-03-20 |
Arkansas +17 v. Mississippi State |
|
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 23 m |
Show
|
Arkansas +17 3.3% play Miss State is not only in a major let down spot after upsetting last years National Championship LSU as a 14 point dog, but that leads to a very inflated line in the early season going, that I just don’t agree with. 75% of the tickets are being placed on Miss State based on what they saw a week ago, and the final score in the Arkansas/Georgia game. Both teams here are breaking in new head coaches, and Mike Leach has made his statement on the 2020 season, but it shouldn’t be a complete shock when you consider LSU lost both of their coordinators, 15 players to the NFL, multiple opt outs, and their coordinators brought in completely different systems in a shortened off season. Arkansas was impressive for a bit against an incredibly good Georgia team. I really like what this Arkansas team did by bringing in Sam Pittman who brough over OC Kendal Briles form FSU, and Barry Odom as their DC (formerly Missouri). Arkansas has veteran players on both sides of the ball including Florida transfer Feleipe Franks. Worth noting is there have been just 7 teams in the SEC who won as a 14 point dog in the last 10 years, and those teams are just 1-6 SU & ATS the following week.
|
10-03-20 |
Missouri +13 v. Tennessee |
|
12-35 |
Loss |
-109 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
10-02-20 |
Louisiana Tech +24 v. BYU |
|
14-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
09-27-20 |
Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks |
|
31-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
09-27-20 |
Lions +6 v. Cardinals |
|
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 |
|
31-27 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 44 m |
Show
|
South Carolian +4 3.3% play
|
09-26-20 |
Kansas State v. Oklahoma -27.5 |
|
38-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Florida -13.5 v. Ole Miss |
|
51-35 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
09-26-20 |
Kentucky +7.5 v. Auburn |
|
13-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
09-25-20 |
Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA |
|
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
09-24-20 |
Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars |
|
31-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
09-20-20 |
Ravens v. Texans +7.5 |
|
33-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
09-20-20 |
Vikings v. Colts -3 |
Top |
11-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
09-19-20 |
Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5 |
|
49-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 59 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech +7.5 2.2% play Normally you'd want ot fade a team after a double digit upset on the road, but here we have a unique situation with Georgia Tech returning home, and is over a TD under dog against a non-power 5 team. I think it certainly catches their attention, and I believe they played better than the final score indicated against Florida State. Meanwhile, you have UCF who has not played a game yet. Jeff Sims will get to start at home here, and the freshmen QB was really impressive throwing for 277 yards, and adding 64 rushing yards. He seems like a real leader, and I expect him to keep his team in the game. On UCF's sideline they lose some talent on defense, but bring back the majority of their starters including QB Dillon Gabriel, but their offensiveline is very inexperienced, and we saw Geoff Collins have his defense ready against a FSU offensive line a week ago. I think we could see more of that here. As I mentioned last week when we picked Georgia Tech to cover, 2nd year head coaches in the Power 5 are 55% ATS as a dog. Georgia Tech also the slowest team in the nation last year and they should opt to do that here going up against UCF who wants to go fast.
|
09-17-20 |
Bengals v. Browns -6 |
|
30-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
09-14-20 |
Titans v. Broncos +3 |
|
16-14 |
Win
|
105 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
09-13-20 |
Seahawks v. Falcons +1.5 |
Top |
38-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
Falcons +1.5 4.4% NFL POD
|
09-12-20 |
Georgia Tech +13 v. Florida State |
|
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
09-12-20 |
Arkansas State +13 v. Kansas State |
|
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
Arkansas State +13 2.2% Play This line opened up at +10 and has steamed to +13, and I'm going to fade that 3 point line move and come in on the dog. If you fade steam moves of 2+ points in week 1 over the last 3 years, you would go 58% ATS, 69-50! We are getting line value in the number. Also, Kanasas State's 0 spring practices, breaking in a completely new offensive line, and their strategy to hold onto the ball and slow the game down (124th in plays per game last year), should lead to a shortened game, making the 13 points more valuable. The total has also dropped 4 points from 58.5 now down to 54.5. Arkansas State played last week, they also had 11 spring practices, and covered against a much better Memphis team a week ago. They were driving to cut the game to 6 points at the end of the game, but covered the spread despite having 3 turnovers. Bonner/Hatcher combo at QB has worked so far and Blake Anderson seems totally focused on this season, and I could see a potential upset here if Arkansas State can win the turnover battle and get off the field on some third downs.
|
09-07-20 |
BYU v. Navy +1.5 |
|
55-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
09-05-20 |
Arkansas State +18.5 v. Memphis |
|
24-37 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
Arkansas State +18.5 2.2% play
|
09-05-20 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 |
|
0-42 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 21 m |
Show
|
Army -3.5 2.2% play There is line value with an open at 5.5 dropping to 3.5. I always like to fade line movement in the early season, as there are many unknowns, and when you fade that line movement you actually get line value. Middle Tennessee was supposed to play Duke in week 1, and then possibly Troy, but they found out just 3 weeks ago that they will face Army. Now 3 weeks to prepare for the option seems like a long time, but this group and this coaching staff has not seen the triple option since 2013. Middle Tennessee gave up 200+ rushing yards 12 times over the last two years and went 3-9 during that span. They also were 0-6 on the road last year, and their QB Aster O'hara who had a good year last year had a QB rating 40 points lower on the road than at home. He also has to operate as his top two RB just opted out for the 2020 season. Army likely won't have any guys opting out or quitting on their brothers, and it's a huge advantage in my opinion for them to be home in this uncertain times. Jeff Monken is a guy I typically like to back when he's a dog, but as a small favorite against a team that hasn't seen the option, and has question marks on their defense, I think we are getting value here as Army should be able to control the game.
|
01-19-20 |
Packers +8 v. 49ers |
|
20-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
01-19-20 |
Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs |
|
24-35 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
01-13-20 |
Clemson +6.5 v. LSU |
Top |
25-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
Clemson +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
01-11-20 |
Titans +10 v. Ravens |
|
28-12 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
01-11-20 |
Vikings +7 v. 49ers |
|
10-27 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
01-05-20 |
Vikings +8.5 v. Saints |
|
26-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
01-04-20 |
Titans v. Patriots -4 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
01-04-20 |
Tulane v. Southern Miss +8 |
|
30-13 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
Southern Miss +8 3.3% pla y
|
01-02-20 |
Tennessee -3.5 v. Indiana |
|
23-22 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
Tennessee -3.5 2.2% play You may be able to get a better # live. Tennessee's deep threat WR is suspended for the first half so if this is a game early you may be able to get a better # live or at the half. No guarantee on that though, which is why I'm taking it now. Tennessee's average recruiting class is 12 over the last 3 years compared to Indiana's 44th ranking. Indiana has had an impressive season with 8 wins their most in some time, but it is smoke and mirrors. Outside the Penn State game where I believe they caught Penn State at the perfect time following their first loss of the season this team really did not impress me. This is a team that lost to a bad Michigan State team, and only averaged 23.8 poitns per game against top 50 defenses. Here they face a top 50 defense that played even better down the stretch. Indiana was 1-4 vs. TOP 50 Defenses beating only Northwestern who they played at home, and were +3 TO's, and Northwestern was one of the worst teams in the P5 this year if not the worst. Tennessee has always showed up in bowl season, and have dominated bigger and better teams from the Big Ten beating Nebraska in 2017 by 14, beating Northwestern by 39, and Iowa by 17 in 2015. On paper it appears that Indiana has a very good defense, but they rank 69th in passing explosive defense, while Tenn ranks 6th. Their 54th ypp defensive rank comes against an average offensive rank of 81st, and they faced many of those teams with backup or even third string QB's, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern among those. I think Indiana will have issues with the physicality and speed of Tennessee in this game, and they are highly motivated under Jeremy Pruitt to show it off, and build into the 2020 season.
|
01-02-20 |
Boston College +8 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
6-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing. Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for. Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards. He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor. Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical. Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this. They typically want to impress their new HC. Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci. They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry. While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road. They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country. They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's. BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball. Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC. They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense. They don't rank well from YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin. They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th. I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC.
|
01-01-20 |
Baylor v. Georgia -4 |
|
14-26 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-20 |
Minnesota v. Auburn -7 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Texas +7.5 v. Utah |
|
38-10 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Wyoming -7 |
|
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-19 |
Kentucky +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
37-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
Kentucky +3 -120 buy 1/2 3% play
|
12-30-19 |
Illinois v. California -5.5 |
|
20-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
Cal -6 2.2% play Personally I think Cal is the play here, with Illinois getting over 60% of the tickets and money at the moment, because the mentality of Big 10 > PAC 12. PAC 12 actually was 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Big 10 this year before Iowa clobbered USC in their bowl game. The PAC 12 5-3 SU & ATS vs. other P5 schools while Big Ten went 2-7 ATS. This game is being played in Santa Clara, CA where Cal will certainly have a crowd edge. Offensively both teams are run first teams that want to protect the ball, but Illinois likes to play with pace ranking 23rd in the country while Cal ranks 90th, and I think that could come back to bite them in this game against Cal's defense. Cal needs to run the ball, and I have reason to believe they can. Illinois has allowed 8 of their 12 opponents to run for 150+ yards this season, and when Cal can do that they average 27 points per game and are 4-0 with wins by 13, 10, 14, and 1 over Washington on the road. When Chase Garbers has been in the lineup for Cal this team exceeds expectations with +18 yards per game vs. what opponents typically give up and they are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Illinois offense ranks 115th in ypp, and they have been outagained by 90 yards per game. They convert just 33% on third down, and rank 92nd in ypc going up against the 20th ranked team. On paper it seems like both of these defenses are even, but Cal ranks 41st in YPP allowed and that comes having faced an average ypp offense ranking 46.7. Compare that with Illinois who ranks 57th, against an average opponent offense ranking 78.25. Illinois played Connecticut, Akron, and Eastern Michigan in their non-conference slate compared to Cal who faced Ole Miss on the road, an SEC team. Illinois defense has been fortunate at times with the turnovers, but Cal has turned the ball over just 9 times all year long, and they have only lost 4 fumbles. I don't think Illinois can rely on winning the TO battle here, and when they don't they are 0-3.
|
12-29-19 |
49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 |
|
26-21 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-19 |
Raiders v. Broncos -3 |
|
15-16 |
Loss |
-130 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-19 |
Eagles v. Giants +4 |
Top |
34-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
12-28-19 |
Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 |
|
29-23 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2
|
12-28-19 |
Oklahoma v. LSU -13 |
|
28-63 |
Win
|
100 |
344 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
12-28-19 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame |
Top |
9-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
37 h 53 m |
Show
|
Iowa State +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
|
12-27-19 |
Washington State v. Air Force -2.5 |
|
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
12-27-19 |
Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest |
|
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
Michigan STate -3.5 3.3% play
|
12-26-19 |
Miami-FL -6 v. Louisiana Tech |
Top |
0-14 |
Loss |
-104 |
50 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
12-23-19 |
Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida |
|
25-48 |
Loss |
-109 |
66 h 31 m |
Show
|
Marshall +17.5 2.2% play I get why this spread is so high. The oddsmakers are questioning how many points Marshall can score here, and I could see why, but I think Marshall’s defense will keep them in the game, and UCF has been known this season to give up some points after they get big leads. Marshall does have the ingredients to give UCF some issues, as they have a top defensive unit. They are strong vs. the run ranking 35th, and they also have the 18th ranked pass rush, which could allow them to force UCF’s QB into some mistakes in this game. UCF only played two top 30 run defenses and lost both against Pitt, and Cincinnati. In their wins UCF rushes for 5.69 ypc, and their losses they average just 3.10. Again that’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Marshall. I’m backing Marshall, because Doc Holliday cares. He’s 6-0 SU & ATS in bowl games. Marshall also recruits the state of Florida heavily, making this a monster game going against a Florida team in Florida. In fact Marshall has 31 players who are from the state of Florida, and they beat both Florida teams this year. Since 2013 they are 14-3 SU against Florida teams or in games played in the state of Florida including 3-0 in bowl games. UCF’s offense also relies heavily on explosive plays. They are not overly efficient in the red zone, and Marshall is top 40 in explosive plays allowed.
|
12-22-19 |
Cardinals +8.5 v. Seahawks |
|
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-19 |
Raiders +8 v. Chargers |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-19 |
Panthers v. Colts -6.5 |
|
6-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-19 |
Steelers v. Jets +3.5 |
Top |
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-21-19 |
Washington -3 v. Boise State |
|
38-7 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 33 m |
Show
|
Washington -3 -115 5.5% NCAAF POD This line dropped tonight, and I think it may be a setup for buy back. I don’t expect it to get to 2.5 or anything so I’m fine paying the extra 5% to grab -3 now. It’s not often that you have a P5 team with more motivation, but that is exactly what we have here. Washington at 7-5, did not have a great year, but they played extremely well when they were supposed to. They had double digit leads in the second half against Oregon and Utah, beat USC by 10, and crushed a BYU team that Boise lost to. This will be Chris Peterson’s last game as a head coach, and there are no distractions as they have named the DC Jeremy Lake as the replacement. Even more motivating is the fact that Washington faced Peterson’s former team Boise. Boise State, on the other hand at 12-1 does not want to be back in Vegas. Their head coach has already made several statements about the MWC needing to do a better job marketing itself so it can get better bowls, and he did interview for several P5 jobs. He’s also going to be calling the plays as OC Zak Hill took the same job at Arizona State. When we look at the X’s and O’s you can look at the common opponent BYU, but I look at the fact that Boise has not faced many top defenses. They faced one team in the top 50 in pass defense, and that was Wyoming who held them to 20 points on their own field. Wyoming lost that game because they have no offensive balance, which is not a problem Washington has. Wyoming’s great defensive #’s have also come against an average offense ranking 91st in YPP, while Washington’s have come against an average YPP offense ranking 46th. Their 31st pass defense has come against an average passing offense ranking 46th so this team is battle tested. The only other time Boise faced a defense similar to Washington was Marshall, and again Marshall had a far trip to play on a short week and held Boise to 14 points at home in their own building. I think Boise and this conference is overrated, and the #’s back it up when you look at the fact that the Mountain West went 7-11 ATS vs. other G5 conferences and were -3.7 mov ATS, which was the biggest gap of the G5 conferences. Meanwhile the PAC12 which gets a lot of shit was actually very good this year they went 5-3 ATS vs. P5, and they also went 10-7 ATS vs. G5. Washington will be playing this game without their LT, and TE, but they have depth, and their young defense which has played so well will have the extra time to prepare which can only help them. We saw signs of Washington being that top tier team in the PAC12 several times, and Jacob Eason looks the part with a big arm, and Washington the better team in TO margin, and special teams in this match up. They have the motivation, and the better coach, and they have faced a far superior schedule, with a blowout against Boise State’s only loss on the schedule.
|
12-21-19 |
Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3 |
|
11-48 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
SMU -3 2.2% PLAY / Under 70 2.2% play We all know the headlines of Lane Kiffin leaving for Ole Miss, and the defensive coordinator takes over the coaching duties here, which I feel can only hurt this FAU offense, which helps with the under bet. They also have scored 3 less points per game when facing a defense that is top 50 in stopping the run, which SMU is, and SMU also capable of getting after the QB ranking top 10 in sack%. The weather is also not going to be great for either team's offense as there is going ot be rain, sustained 16mph winds iwth gusts in the 20's, and we have a high total of 70. SMU, also playing a top defense here, and I expect with the weather they will have to lean more on their running game, and FAU has been good all year long in the red zone allowing just 52% TD's, and with their defensive coordinator taking over for this game I expect the defense to be the side of the ball that tries to win this game. They rank top 50 in YPP allowed,a nd rank 38th in QB Rating. The side of SMU is hard to ignore considering AAC conference went 6-0 SU and ATS with an average MOV victory ATS! of 22.5 points. Sonny Dykes also 2-1 ATS in bowl games, and the home field advantage for FAU is not an advantage. The crowd did not show up to the conference championship, and I think this has a team like FAU less motivated playing a bowl game in their own stadium can't be very excited. FAU also relies heavily on winning the TO battle. +20 in wins and even in losses, and SMU has just 6 TO's lost on the road.
|
12-20-19 |
Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte |
|
31-9 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 5 m |
Show
|
Buffalo -6.5 2.2% play Buffalo back to a bowl game for the second year in a row with unfinished business. They’ll play in the Bahamas against Charlotte making their first bowl appearance after a great and surprising year. The wind will be a huge factor in this game with 20+ mph winds expected with 30mph gusts, but both of these teams prefer to keep it on the ground anyway rushing the ball 60%+ of the time, so it comes down to which team can run the ball better. Buffalo is my pick, because they have the defense ranking 7th in run defense against an average opponent ranking 69th in ypc offense, they also rank 2nd in the nation in fewest 10+ yard runs allowed, while Charlotte comes into the game ranking 108th in ypc allowed, and 107th in 10+ yard plays allowed. Buffalo is very strong in the trenches, and I think they’ll wear down Charlotte by the end of the game, as they are capable of staying on the field for long stretches, and Charlotte’s defense has shown issues getting off the field allowing 43.17% third down conversions by opponent despite facing an average 3rd down offense ranking 37.56. Buffalo meanwhile has one of the best third down defenses allowing 32.45% against an offense that ranks 38.13%. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 1 team to run for more than 4 ypc, and Charlotte is 0-3 when they are held under 4 ypc. Charlotte has allowed 10 of their 12 opponents to rush for more than 4 ypc. This clearly translates over to the red zone where Buffalo has held opponents to 51% TD percentage while, Charlotte gives up 66%. Another edge to Buffalo here. Charlotte does have a better passing game, but this is where I think the weather actually helps Buffalo more. Buffalo’s pass defense which is good is helped by a great pass rush ranking 7th in sack %. Charlotte will likely be in plenty of third and longs, and I like the chances of this Buffalo pass rush forcing some turnovers. Charlotte played 5 top defenses, and were -5 TO in thos games throwing 8 INT’s, and they went 1-4 in those games. Western Kentucky game really seems similar to me as Western Kentucky’s offense doesn’t look good from a statistical profile, and I would argue Buffalo is better, because they have two 1,000 yard rushers, and a QB that is 6-1 ATS since taking over. Western Kentucky beat Charlotte 30-14, and Buffalo’s run defense is better. Buffalo also takes care of the ball. They were negative TO Margin in only 2 games this season. Special teams is probably cost Buffalo at least a couple games, but here they don’t have a huge disadvantage. Buffalo ranks 130th in special teams efficiency, but they face a team that ranks 125th. Worth noting that C-USA went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the MAC in the regular season, and the MAC has been bad in bowl play going just 22-43-4 ATS since 2005, but these are trends that are out there, and the oddsmakers are still making Buffalo a favorite here.
|
12-15-19 |
Browns v. Cardinals +3 |
Top |
24-38 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 1 m |
Show
|
Cardinals +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD
|
12-15-19 |
Texans v. Titans -3 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
12-14-19 |
Army +10.5 v. Navy |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
Army +10.5 3.3% play First of all I want to start by saying this is one of my favorite games of the year. It's one of the few you can say and clearly see when watching that every snap matters to both teams, and every single player is giving it max effort. Army had a very dissapointed season, but this game means much more to them than any bowl game they were going to be playing in. Army could not win the close games like they did last year, but they still only got beat by more than 10 points just one time, which was their last game against Hawaii, game they were -2 TO's, and 1-4 on 4th down, while also having to play multiple QB's. Kelvin Hopkins, is the key to this Army offense, and he will play today, and that's great news for this offense. Army has not lost to Navy since Hopkins has been here. Army's offensive/defensive #'s are very similar to last year they ranked a combined 61.5 in YPP offense and defense agaisnt a combined average opponent rank 80.55. This year they faced a tougher schedule with an average opponent rank 72.45 for YPP offense and defense while their average was 69.5. So we are dealing with the same Army team on offense, and defense. Navy has dramatically improved their offense, but while Army has faced a tougher schedule than last year Navy has faced an easier schedule and in their step up game against Notre Dame they did not show up, while Army stepped up and nearly beat a Michigan team that crushed Notre Dame. Turnovers were a big reason why that all happened, and they will likely be a key in this game here today. I favor Army as they have been great at winning the TO margin or not losing it since Jeff Monken came aboard. Their last 6 games vs. Air Force or Navy they have been +1, +4, +1, 0, 0, -1, -1 in TO margin. This season they are even in fumbles gained and fumbles lost, while Navy is -4. Army will need to win the TO battle again to have a shot at winning this game. Army has better ratings in power success rate on offense and defense ranking 13th, and 45th, while Navy ranks 74th and 125th! Army also ranks #1 in stuff rate offensive line, while Navy ranks 45. However, on defense it's Navy ranking 41st, and Army ranking 101st. Stuff rate is just % of carries stopped at or before the line of scrimmage which is a key ingredient to stopping triple option. Army's offense doesn't allow many defenses to do this and that helps them stay ahead of the chains, but their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, but they know how to stop Navy's offense, as they were right in the game against Air Force. Army against Air Force came down to Army's inability to convert on 4th down. They were 1-3 on 4th down in the close loss, and that's expected when they had to play the game with Hopkins. In the 3 game winning streak Army is 4-6 on 4th down against Navy. Navy did beat Air Force and their statistical profile appears much better compared to Army's game, but Army was on the road while Navy played at home. This spread is a 17.5 point move from last year, and I don't think Navy is 17.5 points better than last year. Where is Navy's big impressive win? They beat Tulane, SMU, and Air Force. These games have been close the last 5 years, and I don't see Jeff Monken, a coach I really respect letting his team lose by double digits.
|
12-08-19 |
Ravens v. Bills +6 |
|
24-17 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
|