Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-19 | Redskins +13 v. Packers | 15-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Redskins +13 1.1% |
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12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Saints -2 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
Georgia +7 5.5% NCAAF POD This is not a popular play, which makes me feel even more comfortable playing. We really are buying low on Georgia and selling high on LSU. I'm aware of the injuries, and player suspension from Pickens for the first half, but all of that has been incorporated into this line. When I look at the matchup I really don't see a huge disparity in these two teams. Really the difference is LSU's top 5 offense has faced a weak schedule of defenses ranking on average 69th, and Georgia's top 5 defense has faced a weak schedule of offenses ranking on average 75th in YPP. Georgia's offense ranks 33rd, while LSU's defense ranks 28th. Those are the weaknesses of this team, but Georgia faced an average defense ranking 50th, compared to LSU's defense facing an average offense ranking 65th. Georgia has gotten it done all year in a conservative old school style, that just is not sexy to the typical bettor. LSU's schedule has been fairly easy. Even their tough games were not as tough given the situation. They hosted Auburn and Florida. Florida played Auburn the week before and had several defensive injuries. They faced Texas A&M at home and A&M was playing in back to back road games having faced Georgia the week before. They faced Alabama off a bye, and Alabama had a bye too, but this Alabama defense was just awful, and LSU again faced Alabama with a rusty Tua coming off an injury and it showed early in that game as Alabama turned it over twice. LSU really did not have a tough road game all year and their home away splits are mind boggling. Their red zone offense which scored TD's on 91% of their attempts in the red zone has just a 59% TD% in 5 road games. Georgia's red zone defense is exceptional 38% TD's allowed. Defensively LSU has struggled 50% at home, but 71% on the road. Their run defense has been particularly alarming allowing 4.96 ypc on the road comapred to 2.66 at home. They allowed a QB Rating 46 points higher on the road vs. home. Jake Fromm, still had a great season despite having to face on average a pass defense ranking 45th. He has his hands full here again against a talented LSU secondary, but he plays behind the #1 offensive line in the country. He has good group of RB's, and he makes good decisions. Threw 0 INT's in 11 of the 12 games. He had 1 bad game against South Carolina in questionable weather. I think Georgia will be able to put up points, and move the ball on LSU's defense, and they'll have an excellent game plan. This is arguably the worst spot for LSU all season facing a team that had an easy game the week before. Not having to leave their home state. At the end of the day Georgia has been here before. They're playing in their home state, 3rd year in a row in the SEC Championship. They held Alabama 10 points under their season total a year ago, and Auburn 27 points under their season total. They have a QB playing his third SEC Championship game, and Georgia turned the ball over zero times the last two years. In 5 games this year against top defenses they have a grand total of 1 TO lost. LSU on the other hand has 2+ TO's in 4 of their 12 games and they have turned it over in 8 of their 12 games. I think Georgia gets one, and that might be the way they win this game. I think Georgia will have a shot to win this game, which means you'd see Ohio State vs. LSU, and Georgia vs. Clemson in the college football playoff, which is the way it should be. |
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12-07-19 | Cincinnati +9.5 v. Memphis | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 43 h 52 m | Show | |
Cinci +10 @ -120 buy 1/2 2.4% play / Cinci +295 1% play The situation coming into this game is the fact that these two teams played each other just last week at the same location. THat only favors Cincinnati who didn’t need to win the game, but I came away impressed either way. Teams since 2005 have played each other in back to back weeks just 3 times, and the dog has gone 3-0 ATS. Memphis has all the pressure having lost in the Championship game the last two years, and they’ll have the Cotton Bowl game on the line. Everyone loves this Memphis team, but I can’t figure it out they did not have to face UCF, and in their non-conference schedule they did not face a team that has a winning record in Ole Miss, South Alabama, FCS opponent and LaMonroe and Ole Miss at the time was not as good as they were to close the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati played UCF, and beat them which was something Memphis could not do in recent years. They also played 3 of 4 bowl teams in their non-conference schedule and faced the #1 team in the country in Ohio State, and they faced another team playing in their conference championship, and Marshall who almost got into their conference championship. In last week’s game Cincinnati has to be pretty confident considering they got down 17-3 after the first quarter and outscored Memphis 21-17 the rest of the way. They gave up a kickoff return TD to start the game, which was really strange considering they have the 15th ranked special teams efficiency unit. They also turned the ball over 3 times in the game, which they hadn’t done all year and they played with a backup QB making his first start. They’ll get their starter Ridder back in the game, but at least they know they can go to Bell who has the bigger arm as he played better after the first quarter. Cincinnati has a very balanced team, they are good on offense, but recency bias will say otherwise. Their defense which has faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses including Memphis allowed 28ppg in those games, and when you take Ohio State out, since they really are on another level they have allowed an impressive 23.75 ppg, and when we factor out the kickoff return TD they gave up to Memphis that number against top 30 rushing offenses drops to 22ppg. Memphis offensively has shown struggles against top defenses. They have 8 turnovers in 4 games against top 40 yards per play, which Cinci ranks. Against top 50 run defenses they average 33.2ppg, which is 8.3 points below their season average. That # drops to 32.3 when they face teams with a top 50 rushing and pass defense, but when you take away their kickoff returns the offense is only responsible for 27.67 points per game. Memphis defense does have vulnerabilities, and that comes against the run. Last week they gave up 180+ yards on the ground. Now they have done well giving up just 24.8ppg against top 50 rushing offenses, but Cinci gets to add their QB Ridder back into the mix, which makes the rushing offense that did so well last week more challenging to prepare for. I think Cinci has more success, and they’ll score into the 20’s again. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 47 m | Show | |
Baylor +9.5 3.3% play Really nothing has changed my opinion if anything I am more confident in Baylor when I played them over Oklahoma a few weeks back as a POD as they nearly upset Oklahoma. You can read that full write up here - https://freddywills.com/pick/7303/oklahoma-vs-baylor-4-4-ncaaf-pod-guaranteed-or-back-192-147-116-784-l-339-ncaaf-4-bankrol.html Obviously this game is on a neutral field, and we have a 4 point move, and you'll hear a lot of guys that focus on only the #'s tell you that you have to play Oklahoma. I played Oklahoma last week, and felt lucky to get a cover. This team is just not the dominant team they have been in recent years, and I really hope they don't wiggle their way into the Championship game. I think Baylor can play with revenge, and confidence. They literally should have beaten Oklahoma, but their offense had several mistakes in the second half including dropped passes, a fumble after a long run, and they just couldn't get off the field on third down allowing Oklahoma to stay on the field the entire second half. This is a new game, and I'm really impressed with how Baylor turned around the next week to completely dominate Texas at home winning 24-10, and then Kansas, a team that nearly upset Iowa State the week before. I think Baylor is still playing with a ton of confidence while Oklahom seems like they are not playing with as much confidence turning into a run first team, and maybe that's better for Jalen Hurts, but they are going up against a top 25 defense that can stop the run and pass. They play cover 3, and can get pressure with their front without blitzing. I'm aware that Cee Dee Lamb didn't play in that game, but he really hasn't been himself since with 2 receptions, and 4 receptions. For Oklahoma to win it took them going 12-18 on third down, Jalen Hurts threw a season high 4 passing TD's, and they ran the ball 52 times for 4.38 ypc, but didn't get a rushing TD. Baylor will have a counter in this game, and Jalen Hurts is going to make multiple mistakes that could cost Oklahoma the game. I would not be shocked to see Baylor win this game at all. In fact I put a small amount on Baylor to win the National Championship at 160 to 1 this week. They would be the only 1 loss team to avenge their loss and if they do I think they get in. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon +6.5 v. Utah | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
Oregon +7 -125 4.5% play / Oregon +210 1% play I was hoping for a +7 to come up, but I don't think we see it at all. So I'll buy this to +7 and 2 of the 3 books I use has this at -125. **Situation Utah wins and many think they go to the CFP PLayoff. I’m not as sure about that. Oregon wins and they go to the Rose Bowl, so motivation is not going to be a problem for either side. If anything I give the edge to Oregon who really can play this game pressure free, and Utah has all of the pressure in the world on them. Utah 8-0 ATS their last 8 games chasing the spread each week for the playoff committee. If you want to back them you are going to pay a premium. 66% of the best and 63% of the money are on Utah. *Weather Expecting a lot of rain, and 12-15mph wind with 20-27mph gusts. Many are going to tell you that it favors Utah style of play, but I would argue that Oregon has a QB that can play better in that type of weather. Justhin Herbert grew up in Oregon, Tyler Huntley in Florida. It rains about 60 more days a year in Eugene Oregon vs. Salt Lake City, and they get about 30 more inches of rain. Oregon also runs the ball more than they pass and people forget about that, and they have the better offensive line which we will talk about later. The total has dropped 6 points, but the spread has only gone up in favor of the dog. Every half point matters more when you get a 6-7 point drop in the total due to weather. *This Year vs. Last Year These two teams met last year. Utah beat Oregon at home as a 5.5 point favorite by 7, and they did it without Tyler Huntley or Zach Moss. They were the luckier team recovering 2 of the 3 fumbles in the game otherwise the game was very much even and Justin Herbert played well completing 20-33 for 288 and 3 TD’s. He does fine against man coverage. Oregon’s team actually improved more agaisnt the same schedule as last year. They improved from 59th in ypp offense to 16th, against a slightly weaker schedule than last year, but their defense jumped from 46th to 9th against a tougher schedule. Utah on the other hand has faced a significantly lesser schedule to this point compared to last year’s team, and I think that’s why their statistical profile looks great, but I don’t see that much has changed. For instance, last year Utah ranked 75th in YPP, but they faced on average a defense ranking 46th in ypp. This year they rank 11th, a massive jump, but it has come against an average 83rd ypp defense. Defensively, it’s another dominant unit ranking 7th in YPP allowed against a decent schedule of offenses averaging 65th, compared to last year’s squad that ranked 19th against an average 57th unit. To me both teams obviously improved, but Oregon improved more, but Utah did not have their starting QB/RB in last year’s game and still won. So I would expect not much of a change in the line, because Oregon has improved more. The only difference is they scheduled Auburn and lost. A slip up at Arizona State, while Utah slipped up at USC. I think Oregon just lost later in the season, and people remember that more. Utah lost at USC, to USC’s 4th string QB. Matchups First lets start by Oregon and Utah have 8 common opponents. Utah has done better +25ppg, vs. +16ppg for Oregon. They are +214ypg vs. +84ypg, but Utah has a better home field advantage in the elevation so some of their stats are going to naturally look better. What I care about was their common road games against quality opponents @USC and @Washington. Oregon went 2-0, and Utah went 1-1. Utah could have gone 0-2, they really should have lost the Washington game, and the same with Oregon at WAshington. They were both almost identical in each game in total yardage, and rushing/passing differential. Utah’s passing game has been efficient, they only throw it 35% of the time and they rank 6th in QB rating, and that’s largely thanks to the fact that they faced an easy schedule opponent defenses ranked 86th on average. They faced 1 top 50 passing defense, but that unit did not have a top pass rush or top rushing defense. In this game Oregon brings top pass defense ranking 5th, a top pass rush ranking 25th, and a run defense ranking 19th. Utah’s passing game is not explosive at all as good as Tyler Huntley has been he has not been tested this year, and he lost his favorite target on third down in Covey for the season. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but it might show up here, because. Utah’s rushing attack ranking 44th is good behind Zach Moss, but not great. That has come against an average run defense ranking 73rd. Once again this is not an explosive rushing offense, and to win a game against a very balanced team you will need explosive plays. Utah has just 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards on the season. Oregon has allowed just 8 all season long which is good for Top 10. Oregon’s passing game which ranks 9th like Utah has faced a very weak schedule average opponent averaging 80th in opponent QB Rating. They ranked 45th last year against an average defense ranking 70th, so they have actually improved, and Herbert had a great game last year against Utah on the road as I mentioned earlier. Utah’s pass defense is legit ranking 8th, but they have struggled at times this year. Both the USC and Washington games come to mind where they gave up over 300 yards passing 7 TD and 3 INT’s. Herbert is better than both of those QB’s and he also takes care of the ball more. I think Utah could have some issues here. Oregon’s rushing offense is actually better than Utah’s. While they don’t run as much they are still efficient ranking 38th, and it comes against an average defense ranking 65th. They play behind a very experienced offensive line, and it shows. They were able to punch in 2 rushing TD’s in the Auburn game earlier this year on a neutral field which is really impressive given what that Auburn defensive line has accomplished this year. X-factors Predict the TO margin, and win the game. I think Oregon will take better care although both teams are in the Top 10 in TO margin. Utah usually wins by margin due to TO’s by that defense, and they can’t rely on that this game. Oregon has lost 11 all year and in their biggest games against USC, Auburn, and Washington on the road they had just 2 TO’s lost. Special Teams is something you can’t ignore, and normally you would just automaitcally assume UTah has the better special teams. Some of their #’s are going to be better because they play in elevation. Overall they rank 70th in special teams efficiency, while Oregon ranks 42nd. The small things win these games for Utah and Kyle Whittingham, but he can’t say that for this game, as Oregon seems to be doing the little things better than Utah. 8.63% havoc rate allowed against an opponent average havoc rate of 15.04% compared to Utah who comes in at 10.67%, and an average opponent rank of 14.54% another reason why I like Oregon here. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys -3 v. Bears | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Cowboys -3 3.3% play |
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12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Vikings +3 3.3% play |
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12-01-19 | 49ers +6 v. Ravens | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
49ers +6 |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
Steelers +3 |
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11-30-19 | California +1 v. UCLA | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Cal +1 3.3% |
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11-30-19 | Oklahoma -13 v. Oklahoma State | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Oklahoma -13 3.3% |
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11-30-19 | Texas A&M +18 v. LSU | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
Texas AM +17 2.2% |
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11-30-19 | Alabama -3.5 v. Auburn | 45-48 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Alabama -3 buy 1/2 3% play |
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11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington -7 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington -7 3.3% play Washington knows this offense well, and should win this game. I think we are getting some value with Washington since they are off an inexcusable loss to Colorado that I simply can’t explain. Washington’s offense disappeared, and they were flat out of the bye. We saw this against Stanford, earlier in the year where they were a 2 TD favorite on the road and lost the game. The y came back the next week and beat Arizona as a TD favorite. I expect the same here as Washington has beaten Washington State by 13, 27, 28,35, 18, 10 over the last few years. This defense just knows how to defend the Air Raid. They saw it earlier in the year when they hosted USC who they beat by 14 and held to a season low 14 points. USC’s next lowest point total was against Oregon where they scored 24 points. Washington takes care of business here. |
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11-29-19 | Boise State -13.5 v. Colorado State | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Boise State -14 1.1% Free Play (61-39 +$21,773 L 100 All Sports Free Picks) Boise State has every reason to win with margin, and we saw that take place in their last game against Utah State. Meanwhile Colorado State, at home here does not worry me. We saw them give no effort against Wyoming, and they have no shot at a bowl game. I think Boise wants to show they deserve consideration for a New Years Day Bowl, and the only way to do it is to win here with margin. They'll be the more focused team the day after Thanksgiving. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. Nebraska +5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
Nebraska +4.5 2.2% play / Nebraska +185 1.1% play This is a massive game for Nebraska and Scott Frost to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible. They are doing what they did last year and playing well down the stretch. They outgained Wisconsin in their last home game in a misleading loss, and the defense held Wisconsin to 2TD's in 5 red zone trips, which I thought was a major improvement on what they had been doing earlier in the year, and their offense with Adrian Martinez back rushed for 273 yards in that game. They backed it up with a dominating performance at Maryland last week, which doesn't say much, but it does show that they are capable of being on the same level of the other teams that have stomped on Maryland this year. Iowa really what do they have to play for here? This was a 3 point game last year in Iowa and Nebraska could have won that game. Statistically speaking last year's Iowa team was better on defense than this year's version. They ranked 6th in ypp against a tougher offensive schedule. This year they rank 21st. Their run defense was stronger, and their ability to get to the QB was stronger. I think Adrian Martinez could have a good game, and I think they should win, because they have taken care of the ball. In their first 5 games of the season they had 14 turnovers, but over the last 6 games they have lost just 5 turnovers. The defense has also played better this year vs. last year. Iowa doesn't typically blow out teams, and they have been outgained by 150+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games. They beat Illinois at home last wee by 9, but didn't cover the spread despite being +2 in TO margin, which only happens 23% of the time. |
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11-29-19 | Kent State +4.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Kent State +4 2.2% play Kent State has the hot hand right now, and I don't believe Eastern Michigan should be more than a field goal favorite here. Eastern Michigan needs to wint he TO battle to win by more than 4 points here and even the game. They are +8 in their wins, and -3 in their losses, and Kent State just does not turn the ball over. They have 10 TO's lost all year, and 4 came against dominant defenses in Miami Ohio and Arizona State. Eastern Michigan's defense is down this year ranking 93rd in yards per play allowed. Kent State's offense has enough balance to keep them guessing here. Kent State's biggest weakness is their pas sprotection, but Eastern Michigan can't take advantage as they rank 92nd in sack %. Kent State has averaged 34.5 points per game against teams who can't get to the QB. On the flip side Eastern Michigan is alla bout their passing game. One thing Kent State can do is get to the QB ranking 33rd in sack %. Eastern MIchigan vs. top 60 pass rushing units are only averaging 23 points per game. They also have worse offensive #'s in conference play. They are -5.5% on third down offense/defense, while Kent is +11%. They are -12 TD% in the red zone in conference play compared to Kent who is -9%. Their QB play/defense is also worse in conference play. I think this will be a tight game as both teams need a win to get to bowl eligibility. While Eastern Michigan alreayd has 6 wins there is no definite way they are getting in as there should be too many teams wiht 6 wins this year. Kent with a win I think is in with how well they have played to end the year. I'll gow ith the more balanced offense, and the team that I feel will take care of the ball more. We mentioned Kent State's ability to take care of the ball, Eastern Michigan's need to win the TO margin to win a game. Eastern Michigan has only forced 3 TO's in their 4 home games. I think both teams take care of the ball here, and this is a pretty even game so to be getting 4 points we have a bargain. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Cowboys -6.5 3.3% play |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
RAms +4 3.3% |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
49ers -3 3.3% play |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys +6 v. Patriots | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Cowboys +6 2.2% play |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State +3 v. Hawaii | 11-14 | Push | 0 | 47 h 49 m | Show | |
San Diego STate +3 4% play |
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11-23-19 | Duke +7 v. Wake Forest | 27-39 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
Duke +7 -115 3% Fade The World Just 20% of the $$ and 28% of the tickets are on Duke here. Listen if they continue to turn the ball over then yeah they could get run out of the building again, but I have a few reasons to believe they won’t do that. This line is definitely inflated given the state of Wake Forest right now.
I really don’t see much separating these two teams. Wake benefited early from a much easier schedule. Their first 8 opponents all have 4 loses or more on the season. Wake Forest then stepped up playing Virginia Tech and Clemson who have 3 total losses and they were exposed, especially without their best offensive player in WR Sage Surratt. Duke meanwhile has faced 5 teams with 3 or less losses thus far, and they are coming off very bad loss against Syracuse, which I believe has inflated this line up to a TD. David Cutcliffe, who is one of the best dog coaches usually has his team ready to play the week after that type of a loss to a team they should have beaten, and I believe they were looking ahead to the Wake game, which they have had circled since the summer. ““Embarrassment. They came on our field, put 50-something on us,” Duke defensive end Chris Rumph II said. “We’ve had this marked on our schedule since last year, and we’re coming to practice with a mindset that that’s not going to happen again. We’re going to their house this year.”
Duke has proven they care about these rivalry games, stepped up and nearly upset North Carolina after losing to Virginia 14-48 the week prior. They haven’t played well of late, but here they go up against what has become a one dimensional offense in Wake Forest. Wake already among the worst teams in the country in running the ball, and now they are without their top two WR as Scotty Washington is questionable here. That has led to Jamie Newman making mistakes. The running game will be key in this game, and I think Duke can have more success running the ball. Duke has faced 6 of 10 teams in the top 50 run defense. The 4 teams they faced outside of the top 50 for which Wake Forest is they went 2-2, and 1 loss was by only 3 points, and they only turned the ball over 6 times. I think establishing the run against Wake Forest is a big key, and that will help avoid the turnovers that have plagued this Duke team which has wasted a solid defense. Duke has 22 turnovers in their 6 losses this year, and just 2 in their wins. They’ll need that recipe to pull the upset, but either way I think it will be close. Wake Forest vs. a top 50 pass defense, has only happened 3 times this season. They beat Florida State 22-20, but should have lost, and lost their last two games against Clemson and Virginia Tech. Each of those 3 games they struggled to score points, and I expect to see much of the same on Saturday, which gives more value in getting a TD with Duke. |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse +9.5 v. Louisville | 34-56 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 49 m | Show | |
Syracuse +9.5 3.3% play We gave out Syracuse on the spread and money line last week and they made us look great. I am going back to the well here, as Dino Babers has his team playing with confidence, and needing to win to stay in contention of getting into a bowl game. Syracuse fired their defensive coordinator after the BC game heading into the bye. Dino knew his defense was talented, and under achieving and it certainly showed last week when they held Duke out of the end zone. Louisville on the other hand won last week, and are bowl eligible with a bigger game against an in state rival Kentucky next week.
The key to this game for Syracuse is the running game. They have ran the ball 40+ times in each of their last 3 games, and are 9-0 dating back to last year when they run for 200+ yards. Louisville’s run defense ranks 100th in the country and that comes against an average rushing offense ranking 78th. I think Syracuse can have some success in the running game here, and although their offensive numbers don’t look great this year Babers is an offensive minded coach. The offensive line played well last week, and going against a defensive line that ranks 108th in sack %, 96th in yards per play allowed should only benefit this offense. Louisville’s offense has been great, but they have had 5 games where they have lost the TO battle, and Syracuse has only lost the TO battle once all season. NC State really shut this Louisville offense down in the first half by blitzing this offensive line which may be worse than Syracuse’s. Louisville has allowed 18.36% havoc rate, and they are 125th at protecting their QB, and give up a lot of tackles for loss. Syracuse is a very aggressive, and is coming into this game with a ton of confidence. I think it sets things up well for this to be a close game. |
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | 10-24 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 24 m | Show | |
Texas +6 2.2% play Texas has faced a tougher schedule, and are still alive to get to the Big 12 Championship. They need Baylor to lose out and for Iowa State to trip up once. It’s highly unlikely with Baylor facing Kansas next week, but Baylor has played in a lot of tight games this season. Here they face a Texas team they nearly beat last year, which should have Texas attention, but that all happened with Sam Ehlinger getting hurt in the first quarter. Texas can throw the ball with Ehlinger as they rank 28th in QB rating. Baylor’s defense has been great, but against the 3 top 50 passing offenses they have faced they have gotten shredded. Iowa State threw for 342 yards, Texas Tech threw for 362 yards in a 3 point loss in OT, and Oklahoma just threw for 297 yards. This defense was on the field a ton in the second half against Oklahoma for a total of 96 plays in all. How much do they have left after Gameday, and the 28-3 blown loss at home ruining a great opportunity to sneak into the college football playoff.
Texas defensive numbers are way off due to the injuries they have had this year. Texas is now healthy and it showed the last two weeks holding Kansas State to 17 offensive points, and Iowa State to 23 points on the road. Baylor really has not blown teams out this year and when they do get up in games the back door is wide open. They blew two 20+ leads at home this year against teams with capable QB’s. I think Texas comes out in no huddle in this game and tries to take it to Baylor early. Texas also has a major advantage on third downs in this game on offense and defense they are the far better team against a tougher schedule. Texas offense will be tested without their top WR Colin Johnson, but they are deep at the position, and an elite QB is typically able to play well no matter who his receivers are. I always like to touch on some of the things most people don’t look at. Special teams is a big key here as Baylor ranks 89th in special teams, and their punter is not good and wildly inconsistent. TO margin is another key, and Baylor has had issues of late with 4 of their last 5 games resulting in 2 or more TO’s lost, and 2 of those they had 3 TO’s. Well, Texas has had only 4 games dating back to last season where they have had 2 or more TO’s. They have just 12 total turnovers lost this season. |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M +13.5 v. Georgia | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +13 3.3% play The total has come down a ton in this game due to the weather as we are expecting some heavy rain, but not a lot of wind. We have already seen how Georgia plays overall, with their conservative style, and it gets even more conservative when weather conditions are not great. Both teams are going to need to rely on the running game more here, and I feel that there is not as big of an advantage on the Georgia side as many think. Georgia ranks 12th in rushing ypc, but they have not run for a lot of yards this year. They'll be facing a very good Texas A&M run defense that has been dominant at times. This A&M defense has size up front, speed at LB, and a safety in Demari Richardson who is not afraid to come up and make plays. A&M held both Clemson and Alabama under 160 yards rushing, and both those teams feature a passing game that is far better than Georgia. The weather also supports that Georgia is going to be more conservative. When you look at the games A&M has struggled to stop the run - Ole Miss, Miss State, and Auburn all three of those teams have something in common. All three have a QB that can run the ball. That's just not what Georgia does with Jake Fromm. Georgia when they are held under 160 yards are 3-5 and their 3 wins have all come this season by 7, 7, and 6 points. Texas A&M also top 15 in the country in rushing explosive plays allowed with only 9 rushing plays of 20+ yards. Texas A&M has a very good rushing attack ranking 24th, and they have gotten better as the season has gone along and they have found a special player in Isiaha Spiller. I think Georgia's run defense which ranks 10th in ypc is a bit misleading as they have faced just 3 teams in the top 80 in rushing ypc. Kentucky is most similar to A&M, and they had plenty of success against Georgia, 35 carries for 160 yards. That was in a rain storm, with a RB playing QB in Lynn Bowden. Georgia knew what was coming and Kentucky still was able to run the ball. I really thought Auburn would have ran more early especially with Bo Nix. Gus Malzahn did not want to risk Nix health, because of the QB situatino and that's why we saw such a conservative approach from Auburn early. In the end Bo Nix was a factor 13 carries 42 yards, and if he doesn't miss a wide open receive in the flat on a 4th down play Georgia might have lost the game. Bowden who we mentioned had 99 yards rushing on 17 carries, and Ian Book only rushed it 3 times for 18 yards. Notre Dame barely had the ball and only tried to run the ball 14 times. Thig Georgia team will be tested on defense on Saturday, because Kellen Mond can run the ball, and he's an excellent passer. Georgia's defense was also on the field for 90+ plays. Georgia has played conservatively all year, and if they play that way in this game they will win and not cover again. Georgia does not need style points, and I expect a close game here, because Kellen Mond has taken care of the ball against top opponents. Against Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn just 1 interception. |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 18 m | Show | |
Indiana +10 2.2% play Indiana had a 73% postgame win expectancy on the road against Penn State. So many things went against them in that game, but they fought and stayed in the game, and at times looked like the better team. Indiana has played Michigan tough the last 4 games, and this is an ultimate sandwich spot for Michigan after Michigan State and Ohio State. We heard several Michigan players already talking about the Ohio State game. QB, Shea Patterson said that they had one game left that counted after the Michigan State game. Indiana has proven to be a very balanced team ranking top 50 in offense and defensive ypp, and Michigan is 0-2 against teams that can claim that. Indiana also sports a 24th ranked QB rating, which is the key to defeating this Michigan defense that is very good against the run. That’s a bold statement from a QB that has to go on the road this week where he has never played well. Patterson 12 interceptions in 15 road games in his career and has completed less than 60% of his passes.
Indiana could be without their #2 WR who left the Penn State game with a head injury. Tom Allen seemed confident in Indiana’s backups, and honestly Whop Philyor probably cost Indiana the game at Penn State. He touched the ball on a punt return to open the game, and fumbled it on the catch that got him removed from the game when two Penn State defenders could have been called for targeting but weren't. Indiana has actually faced four teams in the top 30 in defense, and have had no problem putting up points against them all with the exception of Ohio State where they only scored 10, but in all others they scored 27, 34, and 31 points. I expect Indiana to put up more points than they have in the series in recent history as their offensive line is playing extremely well. They only allow 9.6% havoc rate, they are 24th in sack %, and 21st in power success rate. Indiana also has not turned the ball over in those games against top defenses with only 4 turnovers in 4 games and +1 margin. Michigan when they have faced top 30 defenses are -5 TO margin in just 2 games. |
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11-23-19 | Central Florida -6 v. Tulane | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
UCF -6 3.3% PLAY Fading the public dog is one of my favorite situations to take the favorite, and that is what we have here. There are a few others I like on the board, Navy -3.5 over SMU, but SMU has the extra week to prepare for the option, but SMU getting 66% of the tickets in that game. Kansas State at +2.5 also getting 69% of the tickets and 65% of the money over Texas Tech, and Tennessee +3.5 getting an amazing 73% of the tickets, and 66% of the money, also off a bye. I still may come back to Missouri if that gets down to -3. Tulane has been a favorite of the "sharps" all season long, but Tulane had a crushing defeat last week against Temple knocking them out of the AAC Championship. This team is good, but they have been exposed without healthy RB, the QB has started to make too many mistakes. Tulane's defense also has a lot of question marks particularly in explosive plays allowed where they rank outside the top 100. That's a big problem with UCF, the forgotten team coming in off a bye. UCF still alive to get to the AAC Championship. They need Temple to win out, and Cincinnati to lose out creating a three way tie, and I believe they get in. UCF one of the best explosive and explosive play allowed teams in the nation, and that's a bad matchup for Tulane. Tulane has faced two teams that have a balanced offense. That is a team that can run and pass or at least rank in the top 50 in QB rating. Navy doesn't really try to pass but when they do they are good for some explosive plays.. In both those games Tulane allowed 41 and 47 points and lost both games. I can see Central Florida scoring into the 40's and maybe the 50's in this game. The main difference between this year and last for UCF is they decided to go with a true freshman QB in Dillon Gabriel. He's been great 24 TD's to 7 INT's, but all 7 of those INT's came in their 3 losses on the road. UCF still nearly won all 3 of those games despite being -7 TO they lost by a combined 7 points. Tulane doesn't really force a lot of turnovers in fact they rank 105th in TO margin and have never forced more than 1 interception. Central Florida coming in off a bye, and you have to think Gabriel is growing as a QB and won't make the mistakes he's made the last two games on the road. I think UCF cruises and we are getting a cheap price as the line has not moved a bit despite all the tickets/money coming in on Tulane. |
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11-21-19 | Colts +4 v. Texans | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
Colts +3.5 2.2% play Waiting on injury news, but I like the Colts tonight. Will Fuller for the Texans ?, so is T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron. I expect all to play as this is a very big game. Short week favors the better coach, and there is no question Frank Reich is the better coach. However, I may need to hedge out at some point if the injury news differs. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | 7-41 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Texans +4.5 3.3% play |
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11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions +7.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Lions +7.5 2.5% play |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +10.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor +10.5 4.4% ncaaf pod Oklahoma has a fantastic offense once again and you have to give Lincoln Riley a lot of credit. Actually everyone already does that for us. He did have to replace another QB, but this time 4 of 5 offensive linemen, and that really hasn’t shown up yet this year, because Oklahoma has not faced a top defense. They faced one team in the top 50 in rushing defense, which was West Virginia who ranks 47th, and they rank 116th vs. the pass. They faced one team in the top 50 in passing defense, Kansas State, and they lost. I know they put up 40+ points, but Kansas State ranks 111th vs. the run. Baylor’s defense ranks 17th vs. the run, and 11th vs. the pass, and they rank 19th at sack %, and they do that without a lot of blitzing.
Oklahoma’s offense is really all about defending two guys. Jalen Hurts, make him a passer. He nearly threw 3 interceptions in the first quarter against Iowa State who runs a ton of cover 3. Well, Baylor will run the same thing, but they can get pressure on Hurts with their DL led by James Lynch. I give all the credit in the world to Jalen Hurts who stuck around at Alabama and transferred at the end of the season, but he just doesn’t make good decisions. We have seen this story before it is what got him benched at Alabama, and it appears not much has changed, and I think it’s because he has not played in a lot of challenging games over his career. CeeDee Lamb is the other guy on this Oklahoma offense you have to worry about, and I believe Baylor has a CB that can slow him down in Jameson Houston who has held two elite WR in check already this season. Jalen Reagor and Tylan Wallace combined for just 7 catches and 77 yards. Lamb is a different animal, but Baylor is a really good tackling team and they rank 4th in the country in explosive pass defense, which should help them tremendously in bottling up this Oklahoma offense. I think it’s okay to let them get their yards, and then create mistakes when Oklahoma is in the red zone it’s something Baylor has done really well. We saw Jalen do this in the Texas game, and Texas by no means has a great defense this year. Oklahoma’s offense is -21% TD percentage in the red zone on the road, and their defense is -15% on the road vs. their home splits.
Oklahoma’s defense is not any better than a year ago it seems to me. The one worry I have in this game is Baylor’s offensive line that has not been good. They really have to tire out a defensive line before Brewer has any serious time to throw the ball. I think they can have success doing that here, but expect to see a conservative approach from Baylor’s offense early. They do feature the talent to challenge this defense ranking top 20 in rushing play explosiveness. We saw what Iowa State did in the running game to open the second half and BAylor’s QB is absolutely another threat in the running game that Oklahoma has to worry about. Baylor also has Mimms at WR who has had monster games against Oklahoma over his career, 22 receptions for 330 yards. Mimms won them the game at TCU last week. Baylor is a team that fights until the end and that’s the type of team I want my money on. Matt Rhule has this team fighting, and last week it showed where they could have lost the game against TCU so many times. They are back home and a better team here. They got up 21-0 on Iowa State earlier this year, and nobody but Oklahoma has done that to Iowa State. Baylor believes, because they did it before. In 2017 they lost 48-41 in Rhule’s first year. They got down 21-0, and 28-7 and came back and took the lead then Oklahoma got up 17, and Baylor came back to make a game of it again. This team fights, they tackle well and have a lot of the ingredients to pull an upset. I think this will be a tight game throughout, and if Baylor can just get it to the 4th quarter they’ll have a shot for the upset. |
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5 | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Ole Miss +21.5 2.2% play 37% of the tickets on Ole Miss here. LSU has all of the pressure, and there is no incentive to run it up against Ole Miss other than the fact that Ed Orgeron used to coach here, and got fired, and he’s wanted to run it up in the past, but I think he needs to be smarter than that. Ole Miss has a very good pass rush, that ranks 30th in sack % at home and is 2nd in the SEC in sacks. Their run defense also ranks 30th in the country and both stats are better than Alabama’s. LSU is playing with some depth issues on their offensive line missing two starting tackles and a backup. Ole Miss has the ability to put you in obvious passing situations, and really get after the QB. So, does LSU turn into old LSU and get a little conservative here knowing they have nothing to prove? Mike MaCyntire really has this defense playing extremely well of late, and in conference play this defense has allowed only 42% TD’s in the red zone, and we know LSU’s kicker has had some issues. I could see LSU going for it a few times down here on a 4th down and not getting it. We did see that in their road game against Miss State. Ole Miss is a threat with their offense with one of the best running games in the county led by their QB. LSU can certainly contain him, but they also have some guys that are beat up on the defensive front, and in their 4 road games they have allowed 38, 38, 13, and 41 points. Ole Miss should have some tricks up their sleeve for this game. I think LSU wins in the end, but 21.5 points is the highest spread in this series that the home team has won in 6 of the last 7 years since 2011! |
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11-16-19 | Syracuse +10.5 v. Duke | 49-6 | Win | 100 | 40 h 32 m | Show | |
Syracuse +10.5 buy low gow Buy low game of the week here with Syracuse who is 0-5 ATS over their last 5 games, but they come off a bye week, and according to HC Dino Babers who fired his DC over the bye week they have had energetic practices and the team still believes they can run the table and get to a bowl game. This team does have good defensive personal so I think the move with the DC was a good move that should at least give the team one game bump which is what we usually see with these changes. Duke’s offense has been really bad this year. They rank 122nd in yards per play, 99th in rushing ypc, and 116th in QB rating. Syracuse has had a tough schedule of offenses and have only faced two teams that are balanced in the respect of being bad throwing the ball and bad running the ball. NC State, and surprisingly Pitt rank among the worst in the nation in these categories, and Syracuse defense kept them in both of those games. Although they lost 10-16, and 20-27 they were in the games. Duke really has no business laying double digits here, and I’m happy to grab the points going against a Duke team that has turned the ball over 16 times in the last 5 games. The one thing Syracuse has done well on the season is limit the turnovers. They rank 21st in TO margin, and if they win the margin here they could pull the outright upset. |
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11-16-19 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 3 m | Show | |
Auburn +3 This game is pretty easy to handicap. Whichever team can run the ball better will win this game. That has held true in 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. This is the first time Auburn has a bye before the game, while Georgia played an SEC game last week. South Carolina had a bye week before they went to Georgia and pulled the upset. Whenever you have to win at the line of scrimmage and you come into the game the fresher team that’s going to be a huge benefit and when you ad din that you are also the home team it becomes a major advantage. Auburn should have a great game plan on offense and defense, and I think it really helps their QB playing at home where he has been excellent especially when facing a team that does not have a pass rush. Georgia ranks 92nd in sack %.
Auburn’s rushing attack is far better this year ranking 32nd in ypc, and they have a QB that can also pick up first downs with his feet, which is not something they have had the last two years in this game. Georgia’s run defense has been excellent all year, but only two teams have tried to run the ball 30+ times on them. Both of those teams were successful in doing so as South Carolina and Kentucky ran for 142 & 160 yards and that was without the threat of a passing game. Kentucky was down to their 3rd string QB, and playing in a rainstorm where you knew the run was coming, and Kentucky was able to run the ball. The same thing happened in the South Carolina game their 2nd string QB got hurt, and a 3rd string QB came in and was essentially running the wild cat and they were able to run the ball and upset Georgia. Auburn is far more dynamic than both of those teams, and much more creative with Gus Malzahn calling the plays. Lastly, Georgia played both games against top 50 rushing attacks at home. The Kentucky game, and Notre Dame, who only attempted 14 runs.
Georgia’s rushing attack is clearly elite, and the biggest key to their offense, and that is nothing against Jake Fromm. I think Fromm is a big leader, and really enjoyed following him throughout his high school career and freshman year leading Georgia all the way to the National Championship. However, when Georgia does not rush for more than 4.3 ypc they are 0-6 under Fromm/Smart. Auburn’s run defense ranks 19th, and they have faced six TOP 50 rushing attacks. Their run defense is better than Georgia’s in my opinion and being at home only compounds that fact. It doesn’t seem that way, because Georgia has had a really easy schedule so far. The other problem with Georgia is their rushing offense has gotten worse throughout the year. Team’s are starting to realize they don’t have an explosive set of receivers, and they are beginning to focus more on the run, and it has shown in their last two games. Auburn’s run defense has not given up over 200 yards, and have not allowed more than 4.3 yards per carry all year. Georgia’s last visit to Auburn they only averaged 1.44 ypc, and that was in their championship run in 2017. This offense is just not the same. TO marign, and special teams are about even, and so are many other statistical categories we look at. You can say Georgia has more to play for, but I say they have the most pressure. Auburn would love nothing more than to end Georgia’s playoff hopes on their home field and then go and do the same thing to Alabama in a couple of weeks. |
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11-16-19 | West Virginia +14 v. Kansas State | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
West Virginia +14 Fade The Public GOW 75% of the tickets are on Kansas State here, with more money on West Virginia and the line has dropped a point down to 14. West Virginia actually has the better defense here. They rank 73rd in yards per play allowed, and their strength is against the run, which aligns pretty well in this match-up. I don’t think Kansas State should be laying 2 TD’s or more to anyone in conference play, and they are not the type of team that runs away with games. West Virginia had a bad first half against Texas Tech last game on defense, and Neal Brown has made the adjustments and they held Texas Tech to 3 points the rest of the way and actually outgained them on the day. West Virginia has played well on defense all year long and rank 47th vs. the run, and that comes with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 48th. They have played some good rushing teams this year and have held them in check.
Kansas State’s offense has faced just two Top 50 run defenses, and they lost to Baylor 12-31, and beat TCU 24-17. When they are held under 150 yards rushing they are just 2-3, and their two wins were misleading over TCU and Miss STate by 7 points each they were -82 and -83 yards in the game. I think West Virginia can hold Kansas State in that range, and definitely below 5 yards per carry. If they do that they will cover this game. This would be a larger play because Kansas State’s defense ranks 97th in yards per play, but their defensive weakness is run defense ranking 111th in ypc allowed. West Virginia throws the ball 58% of the time. However, Neal Brown is a good coach and he knows you can’t do that on the road with this team. On the road he actually runs the ball 49% of the time, and when this team plays a team not in the top 60 in run defense they have been able to put up yards and points. AGainst Texas they put up 31 points, and 463 yards of offense. AGainst Kansas they put up 29 points and 394 yards of offense. Against Texas Tech they put up 548 yards of offense, but only 17 points due to 4 interceptions thrown. I think they can have a balanced approach on offense which should help the QB play here. This team really has only gotten blown out three times. At Missouri where they were -3 TO margin in the beginning of the season against Oklahoma which is actually the only game they allowed more than 5 yards per carry, and against Iowa State. Iowa State is just a different animal with a balanced offense. Kansas State is much more one dimensional and have flaws on offense and defense that do not warrant them being a 14 point favorite. |
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11-16-19 | Alabama -17.5 v. Mississippi State | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
Alabama -20 3.3% play Alabama has to be impressive from here on out. They have everything left to play for after the LSU win, and I really wonder what would have happened if Tua did not fumble in the red zone on that first drive, which changed all the momentum in the game against LSU. Tua shook the rust off and had a great game, and I don't see Alabama taking their foot off the gas in this one. 20 points is a lot on the road for Alabama to lay, but Miss State is a team trending in the other direction. They have already lost to LSU by 23, A&M by 19, and Auburn by 33. Alabama has won on the road this year in SEC by 19 at A&M, and South Carolina by 24 and last year they won on the road in the SEC By 55, 34, and 37 points. I think we are getting a cheap price here, because everyone thinks Alabama and that locker room thinks there season is over or they are going to have a hangover, but that is clearly in the line. Obviously Miss State is off a bye here, and that's concerning as they need 2 wins in their next 3 games to get to a bowl, but that win won't come here. They lost 24-0 last year in this game. Miss State at the time had the best defense to finish last year 1st in yards per play allowed, 5th vs. the run, and 3rd vs. the pass, and top 30 in TO margin. This year they are far worse. 103rd in ypp defense, 92nd vs the run, 86th vs. the pass, 69th in TO margin 79th in special teams. I think Alabama makes a statement, and I believe they are still a top 4 team. My top 4 is Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, and I think that is what we will see in the end. |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri +7 | 23-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
Missouri +7 2.2% Premium Newsletter Play Classic buy low sell high situation here after Missouri got shut out last week and Florida blew out Vanderbilt 56-0. Missouri played without Kelly Bryant and their top WR and both should be back for this game against Florida. Nearly 70% of the money is on Florida here, and the line has not moved. 26% of the tickets on Missouri, and this just smells like a game Florida is going to struggle with. First of all, they have only played 1 true road game against a balanced defense like Miami and lost 28-42 to LSU. The other three games they are 2-1, but only one of those would have covered this spread as they lost to Georgia only put up 17 points, beat Miami by 4, and beat Auburn by 11 in a bit misleading fashion.
Missouri has just been a different team at home going 5-0 +28.8ppg, and 4-1 ATS, while 0-4 ATS -15.5ppg on the highway. They just played 3 straight road games, and now they return home, and I think they can give Florida some troubles. Florida had issues at Kentucky & South Carolina, and this feels a lot like those games. Against Kentucky, Florida trailed 21-10 to start the 4th quarter, before pulling away to win by 8, but it took a 75 yard run, and 4 turnovers to get there. Missouri is top 50 in TO margin and Top 50 in rushing defense. Kentucky’s two weaknesses are their turnovers 86th in the country and their run defense which ranks 101st in the nation. Against South Carolina it was more of the same. Florida trailed 17-10, and 20-17 late, but a 75 yard TD run gave them momentum to tie it at 17-17. This was also South Carolina’s game after the Georgia upset. Missouri needs to get back to running the ball to be successful. They are averaging 165 yards in their 5 wins, and Florida is allowing 2 yards per carry more on the road than at home. Missouri also had 221 yards rushing at the swamp last year in their upset win. Missouri does not give up the explosive plays like Kentucky and South Carolina and they’ll have a shot to pull the upset |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan -1 v. Ohio | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Western Michigan -1 2.2% play Only 36% of the money is on Western Michigan right now. I don't really understand it other than the fact that Western Michigan has not won a road game, but they faced two P5 opponents, and Ohio is 0-5 ATS at home and have lost to two opponents that are worse than Western Michigan at home. Western Michigan has an extra day to prepare for this game as well and the match-up favors them. I think we have an edge here with Western Michigan in this match-up. Both teams have a lot to play for and are similar in a lot of ways led by senior QB's. Western Michigan's Jon Wassink has put up good numbers with 19 total Td's 7 INT, 7.9 yds/att, 60% completion while Nathan Rourke has put up similar passing #'s 21 total TD's 5 interceptions 8.1 yds/att, 58.8% completion rate, and 625 yards rushing. Both QB's are capable of picking up first downs with their feet. The biggest difference I see here is that Western Michigan has a pass rush that ranks 23rd in sack %, while Ohio ranks 96th in protection. Ohio's defense ranks 103rd in sack %, while Western MIchigan's offensive line ranks 34th in protection. It's going to be a cold night, and both teams prefer to run the ball anyway, and that's just more important to this match-up but I wanted to bring up the even play of the QB situation, and note that Western Michigan's pass defense has been better overall, and that Ohio has faced 4 TOP 50 pass rushes and they are negative TO margin in 3 of those 5 games. The run game is a big key here, and both teams are capable of running the ball, and have struggled to stop the run. Western Michigan ranks 6th, and 99th in offensive and defensive rushing ypc. Ohio ranks 41st, and 121st, and Western Michigan has allowed around a half yard less in conference play and have gained more over a half yard more in conference play. Against 80 or worse run defenses Western Michigan has averaged 286 yards and 4 TD's to Ohio who has averaged 241 yards and 3 TD's. Defensively Ohio against a Top 50 rushing offense has allowed 261.5 yards and 2.25 TD's per game compared to Western Michigan who is allowing 213.25 yds/game and 1.75 TD. Explosive rushing offense and defense also favors Western Michigan who has 22 rushes of 20+ yards compared to Ohio's 15, and they have allowed 2 fewer as well. There is a pretty large edge in the running game. Situational Ohio needs this game to stay alive for a bowl game, but Western Michigan is fighting and has more of a realistic chance at getting to the MAC Championship game. They got their asses beat in this match-up a year ago mainly because they could not run the ball. Only 118 yards in that game, but Ohio's run defense was far better, 57 spots better to be exact. Western Michigan's rushing offense is better this year as well 44 spots better. Ohio was also +6 TO margin in that game, as Western Michigan lost 4 fumbles. Ohio's defense has forced 6 fumbles all year. There is definitely a correlation to how they are playing and the type of teams they are playing that are similar to Western Michigan and TO margin. Western Michigan is 24th in TO Margin, Ohio ranks 114th as they are -7 on the season, but as I mentioned before when they face a team that's in the top 50 in sack % they just turn the ball over more. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys -3 | 28-24 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Cowboys -3 -120 3% play |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs -5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucs -5 3.3% play |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD |
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11-09-19 | Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
Iowa State +14.5 3.3% play Both of these teams were off a bye and Oklahoma was hosting Iowa State in 2017 and Iowa State pulled the 38-31 upset. Actually, Oklahoma had a couple extra days to prepare for that game. I really like Matt Campbell as a HC and I don’t think he gets enough credit here, while he has kept this toa 10 pt game or less each of the last 3 years. Iowa State is clearly closing the gap in my opinion. Yes, Oklahoma has gotten better on defense, but Iowa State compared to last year has gotten better on offense and defense against tougher competition. The biggest difference for Iowa State has been the play of the offensive line. They now have a rushing attack that at least can create some balance, and they rank top 25 in sack % allowed, power success, and havoc rate allowed. This should really help them against Oklahoama whose defensive strength is their pass rush. If Oklahoma can’t get to Purdy they are going to put up points. Iowa State’s defense has better #’s this year so far, and they are balanced against the run and pass. Jalen Hurts despite putting up ridiculous #’s this year is still what I consider to be more of a one dimensional QB. I hate saying that, because I really like Jalen’s character, but the fact of the matter is he got away with so many questionable decisions in that Kansas State game. He nearly cost them the Texas game with his play in the red zone. Oklahoma’s offense ranks #1 across the board, but they have yet to play a Top 70 defense. 99.5 on average from a yards per play allowed perspective. Iowa State’s defense is very tricky, and they are led by excellent LB’s. I still think Jalen gets his 100+ rushing yards, but I think Iowa State can hold their own in the red zone much like Texas did which kept Texas in that game despite playing poorly. This Iowa State is built to stop this type of offense, and they do it by confusing you and forcing you into TO’s. Oklahoma’s defense as improved as they have been are coming off a very bad game against Kansas State, and they have forced just 6 turnovers all year. I think the secondary is still very weak, and we might see it get lit up on Saturday. |
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11-09-19 | Notre Dame v. Duke +8 | 38-7 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Duke +8 3.3% play Notre Dame in November with nothing to play for is almost an automatic fade, and with 2 losses they are clearly out of the playoff discussion. This team appears to be mailing it in the way they have played the last two weeks now they get a Duke team who beat them in 2016 at Notre Dame. Duke gets them in their own building which is a very big deal and they are expecting a sell out crowd. Duke has 9 Jr’s and Sr’s on the defense which is TOP 50 across the board, 31st in YPP, 30th run defense, and 50th vs. the pass, and they have a 31st pass rush. Notre Dame is 0-2 on the road this year vs. a top 50 defense, and their only win vs. a top defense was against Virginia, but I believe they had 2 defensive scores in that game and were +4 in TO margin.
The key for Notre Dame is running the ball, not the passing game. Can Tony Jones stay healthy? He’s probable for this game, but it’s a stiff test going up against Duke who held Alabama to less than 150 yards and less than 3.5 yards per carry. Notre Dame when held under 150 yards rushing are just 8-10 straight up, and in their wins have come by just 5.5 points in 7 of those 8 wins have been by less than the spread here. Duke is also off the bye, and Cutcliffe is an excellent coach. My concern is Duke’s offense and that’s why we don’t have a larger play here. Duke has turned the ball over far too much. 20 turnovers in their last 9 home games dating back to last season. That is bound to regress. When they had a bye earlier this year they had 0 turnovers, and Notre Dame’s defense really hasn’t been forcing turnovers. I also think Duke’s QB Quenton Harris can run the ball. Notre Dame faced a few different rushing QB’s Virginia Techs’s Quincy Patterson had 77 yards on 19 carries, Louisville’s Jawon Pass had 67 yards and 2 TD’s. That will be a huge X-factor in this game, and if Harris can have a big day Duke will pull the upset. |
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11-09-19 | Washington State v. California +8 | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Cal +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD 74% of the money is on Washington State here. I don’t really understand what they have done to be over a TD favorite on the road. It’s definitely recency bias here as Washington State nearly upset Oregon before their bye, but they have always played well against Oregon. Cal is obviously a top 50 defense, and Washington State is 0-3 vs. TOP 50 defenses this season. Can you really be impressed with any of Washington State’s victories? Colorado, Houston, and New Mexico State? I know Washington State played better in their last two games, but both Colorado and Oregon whom they should have beat always has trouble with Mike Leach’s offense. I believe Washington State has covered like 9 games in a row vs Washington State, and Colorado has lost by 20+ points 3 years in a row.
Washington State off a bye is never a good thing under Mike Leach. They have struggled in bowl games, and it’s because the offense doesn’t change anything. The bye week certainly helped Cal more as they get to really prepare for Washington State and their route concepts. Cal features 3 All-PAC 12 caliber guys, and Washington State in the last two seasons has thrown 7 interceptions against Josh Wilcox’s defense. I’d say he has a good handle on Washington State’s offense. The bigger question is can Cal score any points? First of all, I do think they win the TO battle in this game they rank 36th in TO margin, and they have done that against an average opponent TO margin ranking 35th. Washington State ranks 95th in TO margin. Cal’s offensive #’s have been terrible, due to the QB situation, but it looks like Devon Modster will be back for this game and could give Cal a spark. Part of the problem for Cal is that they have faced a lot of top defenses. Only three times did they face a defense that was not ranked in the Top 70. They beat North Texas and Ole Miss, but lost to Oregon State by only 4 points. They scored 23, 28, and 17 points. I don’t see Washington State scoring more than 21-24 points in this game when they only scored 19 last year in their 19-13 win at home which took a TD at the end of the game with 32 seconds left. The year before when they traveled to Cal at night they put up just 3 points in a crushing loss as a 17 point favorite. Washington State’s defense ranks 110th in yards per play, 107th in rushing yards per play, it’s the worst rushing defense that Cal has faced, which should help their offense tremendously. |
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11-09-19 | LSU v. Alabama -6 | 46-41 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 38 m | Show | |
Alabama -6 4.4% play / Tua to win Heisman +375 2% play I wanted to get this bet out there before the line moves too much. We are already seeing sharp action on Alabama and I completely agree with it. LSU nearly lost two games at home to Auburn and Florida or at least they both were in that game. Florida has a TD lead in the third quarter in that game while Auburn played toe to toe. Alabama is a better version of both of those teams. Florida was missing two defensive ends and their defense is weaker than Auburn's and it showed with the explosive plays they gave up to LSU. Auburn's offense was inconsistent, while Florida was able to move the ball consistently in the air on LSU's defense. Alabama is the most balanced team LSU has faced, and they have to do it on the road where they have not looked good all season. They gave up 38 points to Vanderbilt, 38 points to Texas in a neutral site, and Alabama's defense also got a wake up call having to play without Tua in their last game they absolutely played their best game. Alabama's offense is better than LSU. As good as LSU's receivers are, Alabama's are better. You also give NIck Saban two weeks to prepare and a #2 ranking behind LSU #1, and Saban is going to have his team fully motivated to make a big statement. This is a team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing in the National Championship game. I throw in Tua as the Heisman, because it makes a lot of sense that if they win this game he is probably the favorite. Alabama will also need a big game from him to win anyway, and there is tremendous value unless they trip up at Auburn. |
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11-09-19 | Louisville +7 v. Miami-FL | 27-52 | Loss | -111 | 39 h 16 m | Show | |
Louisville +7 3.3% play - A few +7's have hit in the last hour, and I don't think they'll last. I still like this at +6 or better. Miami has to be full of themselves right now, and this is a sell high situation after they come off two huge road wins, but they have not done well following the Florida State game. Just 1-5 ATS the last 6 years, with an average margin of loss of 13.6 points ATS. Miami has lost 4 of those games outright as favorites and have gone 0-2 ATS if they are facing a team off a bye which they are here. Louisville has two impressive wins on their resume against Virginia and Wake Forest both teams who have been ranked at different times this year. They’re off a bye and Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield is 9-1 off the bye in his career, and has to prepare for a one dimensional Miami offense that ranks 116th in rushing yards per carry. Louisville wants to run the ball and they have been effective doing it ranked 57th in the country and have gone up against a very challenging schedule facing defenses ranking 42nd in YPP defense. Miami’s defense, which ranks 11th has not faced a top 50 offense all year. Louisville ranks 45th in YPP against an average 42nd ranked defense. Louisville has faced 4 TOP 50 run defenses and have run on all of them averaging 209.5 yards per rush. That includes Clemson who they ran for 156 on. Since the start of last year Miami is just 2-8 when they allow over 140 yards rushing, and the win this year was by 4 against Pitt in misleading fashion. Miami’s run defense has holes. They gave up 176 yards to Pitt who is a pass first team ranking 107th in rushing ypc. They gave up 200 to Georgia Tech who is in rebuilding mode and ranks 84th in rushing, and gave up 153 to Virginia Tech who ranks 111th in rushing ypc. Miami has struggled on third downs due in part to their struggling offensive line that ranks 125th in power success, 123rd in protecting the QB, and they have only converted on 25%. Well, Louisville ranks 11th in power success rate and while they don’t get to the QB, they are only allowing 35% third down conversions against a schedule that averages 41.36% holding opponents below their season average is impressive. Miami needs explosive plays in this game to win, and Louisville knows this coming off a bye have had time to prepare for Miami in a key game for Louisville under their new coach if they are going to go to a bowl game. Louisville also has a major advantage in special teams ranking 49th in the country to Miami’s 120th ranking. |
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11-09-19 | Wake Forest v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 39 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +2 2.2% play 72% of the tickets coming in on Wake Forest as they just continue to win games, but I think these two teams are pretty even across the board. Wake has benefitted by playing all but two games at home, and have been fortunate with TO’s so there has been some luck involved for sure. Virginia Tech has to be playing with a ton of confidence after losing by 1 at Notre Dame. They didn’t even care about that game really as they could have played their QB Hendon Hooker who has 8 TD and 0 INT, but they let Quincy Patterson play who has been able to run the ball quite a bit. Actually both QB’s have been able to run the ball, and I think that’s a huge advantage going into this Wake game. Wake going on the road for just the 2nd team against a P5 opponent, they won at BC despite -93 yards. I think Virginia Tech can really get the running game going here, and that’s the biggest keya s they are a run first team 60% of their plays are running plays and they go up against run defense that has been inconsistent and is without their best LB and signal caller Justin Strnad. It didn’t show up last week as they got a big lead on NC State who turned the ball over twice in the first half, but NC State when they did run, and they aren’t a run first team averaged 4.46ypc. Louisville a team with a running QB ran for 225 and 3 TD’s. Wake Forest has Clemson on deck, they are now ranked and have to be feeling really good after beating Florida State, and NC State at home, but they largely benefited from +5 TO margin. I mentioned Hooker not really turning the ball over for Virginia Tech, and I think that continues on Saturday which should put them in a good spot to beat Wake Forest. Wake Forest offensively good struggle here playing a team with a good run defense, and pass rush. Wake Forest actually only had 4.75 yards per play vs. NC State but they were able to run 88 plays. I think on the road Virginia Tech can control this game. Wake Forest was -93 yards at BC, but BC turned the ball over 3 times and still Wake only won by 3 points. I think we see a similar game, and if Virginia Tech can not turn the ball over I think they run for 200+ and win this game in shocking fashion when you consider Wake is going to get the majority of the $$ and the line is moving the other way. |
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11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan -6 | 31-35 | Loss | -113 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
Western Michigan -6.5 2.2% play Ball State's offense leans on the run, but they are averaging 2.4 ypc less on the road. They have run the ball well in their last two games at home against Toledo and Ohio, but those two teams rank 123rd and 124th in stopping the run. Western Michigan is not great but they rank 92nd against a very challenging opponent schedule an average 62nd rushing ypc. Their run defense is better than they're getting credit for and it shows up in their other numbers. They allow just 51% red zone TD %, and that # is 40% at home. Ball STate has a decent passing attack, but they can't protect the QB ranking 96th in the nation in sack % allowed. They have faced 3 TOP 50 pass rushing units, and they have lost those 3 games by 10, 13, and 11 points. Western Michigan ranks 29th at getting after the QB and they have that ranking against a very good opponent sack % allowed so I think Western Michigan if they can stop the run, they can get to the QB, which is key, because the biggest weakness for Western Michigan's defense is the secondary, but if Ball State who is bad at protecting the QB doesn't have time to throw it won't matter. Western MIchigan's offense is dictated by their running backs. They rank 8th in ypc, and they are even more dynamic at home. They rank 15th in explosive rushing plays, and while Ball State's defense has been good their strength is against the pass. Their run defense has not faced anyone. They faced a good Ohio rushing attack that ranks top 50, and gave up 316 yards rushing at home in a 13 point loss. Ball State also not playing particularly well in the red zone allowing 2/3 of opponent opportunities to result in a TD. I think Western Michigan can score some points early, and continue to lean on the rushing attack to keep a 7+ point lead here at home in a big game. Western Michigan's home field advantage has been great 5-0 SU and ATS. Ball State has been great on the road, but I think with this line we are getting value on the favorite. Ball State has really relied heavily on TO margin, and Western Michigan does not turn the ball over ranking in the TOP 25 in TO margin. Western Michigan keeps doing what they do at home. |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4.5 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Chargers +4.5 3.3% play |
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11-03-19 | Bears +5.5 v. Eagles | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Bears +5.5 2.2% play |
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11-02-19 | UAB v. Tennessee -11.5 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
Tennessee -12 2.2% PLAY With only 3 wins, Tennessee needs this game badly and they won’t be looking past UAB after losing to Georgia State earlier in the year. They are also paying their best football of the season and should be fully motivated and excited after last week’s win, and this game will be played at night. I said it last week when we took them at home +4.5 against South Carolina as we saw some signs in their game against Alabama where they were about to cut the game to a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter, before fumbling on the goal line and Alabama returning it the other way for a massive 14 point swing. That confidence showed up last week as they dominated South Carolina, and I see no reason why they shouldn’t beat UAB team that continues to over perform.
UAB 5-2 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS last year, and 8-4-1 ATS the year before. UAB lost both games ATS the last two seasons against P5 opponents Texas A&M losing by 21, and Florida losing by 29, and I see a similar result here. They lost 35 seniors from last year’s team, and teams that win 18 games ATS in a two year span just don’t continue covering games like this. UAB has benefited from a very easy schedule. The opponent offenses faced in their 7 games have an average yards per play ranked 121st. I don’t think I have seen something like that before. So, UAB’s defense has really been able to dominate, but this is obviously a step up when you look at Tennessee’s talent, they’ve ranked 17th, 16th, and 5th the last 3 years while UAB 93rd, 105, and 83rd. The biggest question for Tennessee has always been coaching and whether or not the players buy in. I think this group of coaches is good, and I think we are just starting to see the players buy and come together. It looks like Brian Mauer will be back at QB which will be a huge addition for Tennessee, but we may see all 3 QB’s play here. UAB also has not taken care of the football and their offense ranks 93rd running the ball, and if you can’t run, that’s going to be an issue, because Tennessee ranks 23rd in sack %, and the QB for UAB already has thrown 10 interceptions. Tennessee’s coaching staff has been talking about TO margin all year, and they finally come off a game they don’t turn the ball over. Let’s see if they do it again. Tennessee also a massive edge in special teams where they rank 10th, so we have some hidden yards there. |
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11-02-19 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Indiana | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
Northwestern +10.5 3.3% play Indiana is off back to back road wins, and have gotten to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but honestly what have they proven to allow them to be a double digit favorite here? Their last 3 conference games have beena gaisnt Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and their defense has not played particularly well in any of those games against teams that really have struggled moving the ball this year. Michigan State put up 40 points and 445 yards on Indiana. Northwestern gets Hunter Johnson back at QB here, after he took some time away. I don't know if he makes the start, but he definitely gets in the game. Northwestern is a team that fights hard and doesn't give up. Last week they really got off to a slow start which they can't afford to happen again here. I think the offense has their best day in many weeks, and Pat Fitzgerald has a shot to win this game outright. He is 6-1 vs. Indiana over his career. Northwestern has faced one of the country's toughest schedules with Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State on the schedule. They had to start a third string QB for 3 of those games, and I think we are getting line value here, because Northwestern's defense has played extremely well. These two teams have two common opponents Michigan State, and Ohio STate. Northwestern was -74 yards vs. Michigan State, Indiana was -87. Northwestern was -281 yards vs. Ohio State, and Indiana -263. Both teams have been nearly identical in their recruiting, and I just think Indiana has been fortunate with their schedule and when they faced certain teams. Expecting a close game here regardless. |
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11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 54 m | Show |
Washington +3.5 @-115 5.5% NCAAF POD Before we even break this game down it is important to know that Washington has consistently out recruited Utah. Washington has more talent ranking 15th, 21, and 20th in recruiting the last 3 years, while Utah ranked 37th, 50th, and 51st. Utah plays above their talent rating because of a good home field advantage, and top 10 coaching. Those advantages don’t exist in this game.
Washington was one of only a few teams in the country that had to open the season with 8 straight games, and now they are off a bye where Chris Peterson is 18-0 in his career during the regular season, 11-7 ATS. They had a 2 TD lead entering the 4th quarter against Oregon at home. Oregon very similar team to Utah as far as their statistical profile. Both teams rank in the TOP 25 in YPP offense, and defense, with similar strength of schedules. Washington should have won and covered that game, but I think the 8 straight games wore them out by the 4th quarter. All in all they still held Oregon to 39% rushing success rate, which is above average, and Oregon a better running team than Utah ranking 33rd in YPC against a tougher opponent run defense than Utah, but they are very similar. I think the extra rest will help Washington here late in the game. It also helps that Utah’s QB Tyler Huntley is not 100%. It’s the reason they took him out of the game in the second half and changed the offensive strategy last week. Washington’s defense also struggled late against the rushing offense of Oregon, but Oregon has an elite offensive line, they rank top in havoc rate allowed, and rank top 50 in power success rate, which showed late in the game. Utah ranks 100th in power success rate.
Utah’s defense can not be ignored, but they have yet to face a team in the top 50 in both rushing ypc, and QB rating. They haven’t faced an offensive line this good either. Washington ranks 17th in havoc rate allowed and 34th ins ack % allowed. Utah’s strength is in their defensive line. They love to create havoc, but they have not been sacking the QB ranking 77th that’s worse than Oregon’s rankings. Give Jacob Eason time, and he’s going to find his receivers. I also think he’s going to get his Sr. WR Aaron Fuller back here, although he’s listed as questionable still he has practiced this week. Washington also has the balance with their running game, which features Salvon Ahmed, averaging over 6 yards per carry. The last two times Utah visited Washington they were not able to stop the run allowing 177 yards and 199 yards, and that’s without the threat of the pass that Jacob Eason brings. Special Teams is another category that can not be ignored. Typically Utah is among the best in the nation, but that’s just not the case this year. They rank 96th in special teams this year, while Washington ranks 2nd. A lot of hidden yardage here, and the kicking game for Washington has been perfect while Utah kickers are just 7-11 and the punting has averaged less than 40 yards per punt. Washington also has the edge i n TO margin ranking 19th, compared to Utah’s 25th ranking, but last year in their two matchups they turned the ball over 6 times. Washington has had the advantage in TO margin in the majority of their meetings, and I feel like they will have it again in this one. |
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas +6 | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
Kansas +6 3.3% PLAY Kansas State is coming off a massive upset over Oklahoma, and now there is talks of them getting to the Big 12 Championship game. This team is a fraud being out gained in all of their last 5 games, but yet they have found a way to win 3 of them. Kansas is off a big win over Texas Tech and they are playing like a totally different team since Brent Dearman was named the OC following the Oklahoma game. Dearmon coached under Guz Malzahn and is a highly touted offensive mind and he’s leading this balanced Kansas offense. Kansas offense that ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. They can run and pass, with a balanced attack, and that’s bad news for Kansas State who ranks 118th in the country against the run. Kansas has been taking care of the ball after turning the ball over 8 times in their first 4 games they have just 1 TO in their last 4. That is a team I want to back at home. For as bad as Kansas defense has played, Kansas State is not much better, and Kansas offense is better statistically than Kansas State. Kansas has not won this game in 10 years, but they have been getting closer each of the last 3 years lowing by 15, 10, and then just 4 points a year ago. I think they win this time as the magic under OC Brent Dearmon continues, and Carter Stanley throws for over 300 yards for the third time in his career against Kansas State. |
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11-02-19 | NC State +7.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-44 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
NC State +7.5 4.4% play / NC State +250 1% bonus Both teams off a bye, and both of these head coaches are admired by many, but lets take a look at how they have done head to head dating back to their MAC days. Dave Doeren the NC State coach is 3-2 against Dave Clawson, with the two losses coming in 2017, and 2018, so I'm sure this team is fully motivated to change that here in 2019. Before that Dave Doeren beat Wake Forest in 2015 & 2016 by 18, and 17 points, and both of those situations he was off a bye. He also has a win by the score of 45-14 when at Northern Illinois. Dave Clawson's wins were 30-24, and 27-23, and he will ahve to win by more here. In the 30-24 win, Wake was a 3 point favorite, but were lucky to win as NC Sate outgained them by 168 yards, and last year NC State led 23-13 in the 4th quarter before losing the game and were only outgained by 14 yards. Dave Doeren 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS off a bye at NC State including 3-0 ATS as a dog and 2-0 ATS vs. Wake Forest. Dave Clawson is 0-5 at Wake Forest off a bye 1-4 straight up and his losses have come by -14 points per game ATS, while Doeren has won by 10.8 points ATS. Doeren's 3 losses came to 2 National Champions. Clemson last year, and Florida State in 2013, and an 11 win Notre Dame team in 2017. It's clear to me that Doeren is the better coach. Talent wise, NC State just brought in two of their best recruiting classes ranking 24th, and 31 the last two years compare that with Wake who ranks 53rd, and 64. NC State is making a switch to a 4* QB in Devin LEary who came into the Boston College game and threw 249 ayrds 3 TD's. Wake Forest can be had in the passing game as they rank 104th in opposing QB rating, and struggle to get pressure ranking 66th in sack %. They also lost their top defensive player for the season in LB Justin Strnad who was their leading tackler. That should hur them in their run defense. NC State is a very good defense ranking 35th in yards per play allowed. To me they really have only had 1 off game, and that was against Boston College who ran wild on them, before that they were only allowing 67 yards rushing a game. I think NC State gets back to that here, and Wake Forest will face a pass rush for the first time. They rank 9th in protectino, but the average opponent sack % they have faced is 83. NC State ranks 24th, and Wake is just geting Jamie Newman back which I expect some rust if he does start. I just don't see Wake Forest getting margin here, and I think we could see NC STate who needs this game more pulling the outright upset. This would not shock me at all, as Wake Forest has been living on the edge a few times to teams they were favored over this season. |
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10-31-19 | Georgia Southern +15 v. Appalachian State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern +14.5 2.2% play I think we have value here with Georgia Southern, as 68% of the tickets are on App State, but there are a couple situations to consider. First of all the total has crashed due to the fact that we are looking at rain, and 20mph sustained winds, with gusts of 50mph for tonights game. The temperatures are going to drop and we may even see some snow. The value on this many points really is worth taking when you consider that both teams will be leaning heavily on the run game. They already lean heavy on the run, with App State 62% of runs, and Georgia Southern 81%. Georgia Southern upset App State last year, and they have not been having a great year, but 2 of their 3 losses, are two undefeated Power 5 teams in Minnesota and LSU, and they lost by only 3 at Minnesota. Georgia Southern has gotten better on defense compared to last year, and their biggest strength comes in run defense, something they are going to be defending a lot in this game. They rank 28th in rushing ypc, and held both MInnesota and LSU in check. Minnesota just 1.94 ypc on 48 carries, and LSU just 3.7ypc on 33 carries. App State's rushing offense ranks 11th, but that has come against an average opponent run defense ranking 85.8. They are typically helped by their QB, and that is the weakness of this Georgia Southern defense, but how much can they take advantage of that here tonight given the conditions? App State's run defense ranks 44th, but they were 21st last year, against similar strength of schedule. NOw they have played better of late, but they gave up 277 yards in this game last year. QB Shai Werts ran for 129 yards last year in this game. Werts has missed 2 games this year, which has made GEorgia Southern's statistical profile worse than it seems. Thus giving us value. The Georgia Southern rushing attack has really gotten going the last 4 games rushing for over 300 in 3 of them, and that has come with wins. In last year's game explosive runs helped them win the game, and I think they can have more success since they run the triple option here tonight. They rank 9th in explosive runs, and are going up against App State's defense that ranks 50th in explosive runs allowed. App State also has an explosive rushing offense, but again I think they have that level of success due to the fact that they are balanced on offense, and I don't know if they can be here tonight. App State rnaks 29th in explosive runs, but Georgia Southern inside the top 20 ranking 16th in explosive runs allowed. This is a huge rivalry game, and the conditions favor the under and naturally the dog. I like the dog here, and they have for hte most part taken care of the football. Ranked in the top 50 in TO margin. Expect a very tight game. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Chiefs +5.5 5.5% POD |
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10-27-19 | Raiders +6 v. Texans | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
RAIDERS +6 3.3% PLAY |
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10-27-19 | Browns +10.5 v. Patriots | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Browns +10.5 1.1% play |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +6 v. Colts | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Broncos +6 2.2% play |
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10-26-19 | South Carolina v. Tennessee +4.5 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Tennnessee +4.5 2.2% play I honestly don't agree with the line move here, but I'll take the extra value as I look at these two teams and see two very similar teams. The defenses are nearly identical when we look at the offenses faced. Tennessee ranks 65th, but getting better against an average opponent offense ranking 44.8, compared to South Carolina's 59th ranking against an average opponent ranking 45.8. They have nearly identical rush defenses against nearly identical opponent rushing offenses. While Tennessee is a little worse in opposing QB rating defense, they make up for it with their 14th ranked sack %, and playing at home should make it an even battle. Now Tennessee is starting another freshman QB in JT Shrout it sounds like, but Jarret Guarantano is still available. It sounds like turnovers are mostly the conerning part for this team and that's the reason for the move. I see both teams trying to establish the run here, leading to quicker game, and the points more valuable for the home team. 76% of the money is on South Carolina and I am fine being on the flip side here as I think Tennessee could win this game outright. How much does South Carolina have left? Back to back games against Top 10 teams, and now back on the road for the second time in 3 weeks. |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Texas -1 3.3% play This may be the squarest play I make all year. Yes, I know Texas defense is banged up, but I think we are getting value in this number based on Texas game last week against Kansas as they escaped at home against Kansas 50-48. Texas always struggles the week after Oklahoma and this is giving us a cheap price. If Texas can just find a way to get through this game, and into their bye they are going to be in good shape. The defense has struggled, but when you have LSU & Oklahoma on your schedule your defensive statistical profile is not going to be great. Kansas offense is much better than people give it credit for They rank 31st in yards per play, which is 32 spots better than TCU. They also have a balanced offense ranking 11th in rushing yards per carry, and 41st passing the ball. The threat of both is what gives Texas defense trouble. TCU really does not have that, and despite all the playmakers they still can not figure it out at QB ranking 84th in QB rating. Offensively Texas is arguably the best unit that TCU has faced as far as talent. TCU's defense is not as good as it has been in years past. TCU faced two elite passing attacks, SMU and Iowa State and they gave up 40+ points in both games while losing both games. This is a desperate TCU team, but Texas is not going to let them win, and in a tight game who are you going to trust Sam Ehlinger or Max Duggan? When Texas offense has had trouble this year it was against Oklahoma where they got behind the sticks as Ehlinger was sacked 9 times in the game, but TCU's defense although they rank 35th in YPP allowed struggled in pass defense and getting to the QB. That happens when you lose 3 guys on the defensive line who are now playing in the NFL and were replaced by freshman. The DE have just 1.5 sacks on the season they rank 72nd in sack %, 58th in QB Rating allowed. Texas is like the new Oklahoma. The defense has been bad, but the offense makes up for it all unless they face an offense that is actually better than theirs. There are not many offenses that are. LSU and Oklahoma checked those boxes, but TCU doesn't come close. Years ago I would have loved to take the defensive team in this one, but value on Texas who is essentially a dog, and we all know how HC Tom Herman has done as a dog. Texas has a huge advantage in special teams ranking 26th having faced a better opponent average special teams, while TCU ranks 76th. TO margin also in favor of Texas ranking 24th, compared to TCU 107TH. Don't be surprised if their defense plays agressive to force those 2 or 3 turnovers to win this game. That's exactly what kept them in the game against Oklahoma. Lastly, we are giving Texas shit for giving up points to Kansas, a team ranked in the top 40 in YPP, and Texas had 2 TO's, and missed on two 4th and 2's that set Kansas up with good field position. TCU struggled with just 17 points against a Kansas State team that has not been able to stop the run ranking 124th. In fact Texas is actually better at stopping the run than Kansas State. If TCU will have to score in the 40's to win this game, and I don't think they can do it. |
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10-26-19 | Auburn +10.5 v. LSU | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Auburn +10.5 2.2% play If Florida was +10.5 here a few weeks ago I would bet them again. LSU right now is just getting too much love in the media, I saw an article where 55 of 55 people picked LSU to win by double digits!! Auburn has just as much talent, and they have blown double digit leads the last two years in this game, actually led 20-0 last time they were here. LSU just last year was a 10 point under dog in this game, and now they ar a 10 point favorite? Biggest question is whether or not Bo Nix can have a good game for Auburn, because they are going to have a hard time running the ball. I think he can, and I think he's only going to get better as the season goes along. Don't be surprised if you see Malzahn have him throw a lot of short passes early to get his confidence up, and that falls right into the weakness of LSU's pass defnse. I also expect a trick play or two that could change this game completely to allow Auburn to win. I don't think this freight train continues for LSU. Against Florida they were fortunate to play Florida the week after Auburn, and Florida was missing several key defenders. Auburn is pretty healthy here, and just a reminder. What has Joe Burrow done against top pass defenses? He played 6 games vs. top pass defenses, and 4 of them were at home last year. His completion % in those game 45%, 44%, 55% , 50% 57%, 51%, 1 TD and 4 INT’s. So far this year he's played an average opponent QB Rating defense of 85.5 |
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10-26-19 | Penn State v. Michigan State +6 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Michigan State +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD +190 1% Bonus This is a dreadful spot for Penn State off two physical games against Iowa and Michigan where their defense saw 153 plays, now they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to face a Michigan State team that has their number and is off a bye. They bye could have come at a better time for Michigan State in my opinion after they were in the season’s worst scheduling spot. Name a team that had a tougher back to back road stretch than Michigan State having to face Ohio State, and Wisconsin on the road. They lost both SU & ATS, and there is no harm in that. Penn State should have lost at IOwa they were outgained on the day, Michigan should have taken them to over time, and Michigan out gained them 417 to 283. Yet Penn State won both. I think their luck runs out here, and if you compare Michigan State with Iowa. On paper you’d think they are the same team, but Michigan State actually has the better defense against the tougher schedule. Michigan State ranks 18th in YPP allowed, and Iowa ranks 19th, but Iowa has not faced offenses with an average opponent YPP ranking 75th, compared to Michigan State’s 57.42. The run defenses which are the key to stopping Penn State right now with an inexperienced QB in Clifford still making his way. Iowa ranked 22nd, and they gave up 170 to Penn State at home, and many on third and short as Penn State went 10-19 on third down. Iowa ranked 127th in power success rate defense. Michigan State is flat out better at stopping the run ranking 25th, but have faced two of the best running teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State already. Michigan State ranks 22nd in power success rate defensive line, and they are only allowing 38% conversions on third down which is great when you consider their opponents average 44.23%. Michigan State actually matches up better than Iowa, because they should stop Penn State on third down and if they are in passing situations Michigan State has a pass rush, ranking 24th in sack % compared to Iowa who only ranked 94th. Penn State does have issues protecting the QB ranking 78th in sack % allowed, and that’s why they have chosen to lean on the running game. If it’s third and short or third and long Michigan State’s defense has the edge. How about Michigan State’s offense, well they have faced some of the top defenses in the nation an average 37th ranked ypp defense, and have gone 0-3 against top 40 units. However, Penn State’s defense can be beat. We saw Michigan move the ball on them, and we saw Iowa move the ball on them, both have veteran QB’s just like Michigan State in Brian Lewerke. Lewerke has had great success against Penn State the last two years he threw for 659 yards 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He’s having a better year this year and it’s not amazing, but he’s taking care of the ball 11 TD’s to just 3 INT’s, which was another reason Iowa lost that game. Michigan State has the nation’s best punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging over 46 yards per punt. This will be a huge advantage making a Penn State offense that is nothing special march extra yardage to score points. I think Michigan State will have a good game plan coming off the bye, and their offense will look a bit better than it did in their last two games. |
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10-26-19 | Southern Miss v. Rice +10.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Rice +9.5 3.3% PLAY Rice has had a very challenging schedule as they have faced 3 Power 5 schools and 3 of their 4 non-p5 games have been on the road. They finally get back home where they have played well. This is a team that only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech, and 8 to Baylor, those teams are 13-1 combined. In comes Southern Miss as a 9.5 point favorite, and I just think it’s far too many points, when you factor in how slow Rice plays, and Southern Miss defense ranks 127th in yards per play allowed, which for me means Rice should be able to move the ball and pick up some first downs. I don’t like to look at common opponents too much but worth noting is the fact that Rice was +58 yards vs. La Tech and Southern Miss was -39 yards. Southern Miss got off to a 14-0 lead over La Tech with a 100 yard return by their leading RB who might be out for this game, but after that they were outscored 45-16! It was a disappointing loss, and they have UAB on deck. Rice should have beaten UTSA last week, but a pick six really did them in in their 31-27 loss, but 27 points was the most amount of points this team put up and it came against a team ranked 118th in yards per play allowed, which is similar to Southern Miss defense. Turnover issues have plagued both of these teams as they both rank outside the top 100, but Southern Miss has been worse ranking 114th. Southern Miss turnover issues have also come on the road where they have given the ball up 9 times in 4 games. Rice has 8 turnovers on the road, but they are home here where they have turned the ball over just 3 times in 3 games against some very good defenses - Baylor #25 in YPP allowed, and 12th in TO margin, LA Tech 47th in YPP allowed, and 68th in TO margin, and Wake Forest #83 YPP allowed, and 13th in TO margin. I think Rice can win the turnover margin, keep the # of possessions in the game, and possibly pull the upset for their first win. |
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10-26-19 | San Jose State v. Army -10 | 34-29 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Army -10 2.2% play I think Army gets back to basics this week, as they face a San Jose team off a tough physical game against San Diego State, and they have to fly across the country to play at 9am body clock time. I think Army getting back home going against a team that ranks 102nd in stuff rate, has just a 12.7% havoc rate, and ranks 101st in power success rate on their defensive line. Army has a major advantage in the trenches in this game ranking Top 30 in both offensive and defensive power success, and they are going up against a team outside the top 100 in both. Air Force who runs the same offense dominated San Jose State earlier in the year rushing for 382 yards 5TD’s on their way to a 41-24 win. This spot is better for ARmy, and that game was more of a blowout than the final indicated. Army won this game 52-3 last year, and I expect another double digit victory for a team that has to be frustrated with how they have played the last 3 weeks. San Jose State is one of the worst in third down defense giving up 50% conversions, and that’s bad news going up against Army, who should control this game when you factor in San Jose STate throws the ball 65% of the time and only converts 35% of their third downs. Army is actually not bad on defense, and better than Air Force ranking 42nd in yards per play, and 62nd vs. the pass. Expect some three and outs, and Army will control this game and make San Jose State extremely predictable which will lead to some turnovers. |
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10-26-19 | Iowa v. Northwestern +10 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Northwestern +10 3.3% play & +348 1% play Iowa will be held under 100 yards rushing in this one, and this will be a one possession game, just like they have the last 3 years. Northwestern stole 2 of those games as a +10 and +11 underdog winning outright. Iowa has not been able to get the running game going in conference play, and Northwestern is very solid in gap control, and rank 11th in the country in power success defensive line, which is better than Purdue who held them to 102 yards on the road. Now Iowa on the road, and they have had a tough schedule with Michigan, Penn State, and then Purdue, meanwhile Northwestern with the extra day to prepare after getting blown out to Ohio State on national TV. I think the 10 points are a gift, as this game will come down to Iowa passing the ball, and they have been very poor at doing so. Nathan Stanley continues to turn the ball over, and Northwestern is only giving up 180 yards per game through the air, and Iowa has struggled in the red zone on the year, and they are without their #2 WR Brandon Smith who had 9 receptions and over 100 yards receiving last week. Iowa also has been banged up on the offensive line and shuffling guys all over the place, which has been the reason they have had issues protecting the QB. Iowa’s offense has scored 20+ points in 4 games, and all 4 of those opponent defense ranked on average 92nd, with none of them being in the top 75. Northwestern could have some offensive success in this game. They are certainly due, and have played a tough schedule of opponents defenses. Outside of UNLV, where they scored 34 points, they have played 5 teams ranked in the top 70 in defensive line power success rate, and 4 of those were top 40. They have faced three top 20 overall yards per play defensive teams, and 3 top 25 run defenses. Here they face another with Iowa ranking 19th, but it’s come against weak competition with an average opponent ranking of 75th in YPP offense. Iowa also 22nd vs. the run but they have not faced a team that can run the ball 89th in opponent average ypc, and Penn State ran for 177 yards, and just kept picking up first downs. Iowa ranks 127th in power success rate defense, and they rank 94th ins ack %. Those are the two areas that give me concern and have me thinking that maybe Northwestern could score a couple of TD’s, which will be all they need to cover the spread, and maybe pull the upset. Northwestern struggled turning the ball over in their home games against Michigan State and Ohio State, but those two teams bring the havoc 19.9%, and 24.5% havoc rate. Iowa just 14.1% havoc rate on the season. Also, Northwestern the fresher team here they had a bye before the Ohio State game and an extra day of rest, and they ran for 157 yards against Ohio State, a team that ranks 5th in rushing defense. Truly think Northwestern can move the ball here, and come up with some turnovers to win the game outright. |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Houston +14 3.3% play This line is inflated in my opinion due to the way Houston played traveling all the way up to Uconn playing in the cold. They rested some guys and treated as a bye for this week's game, which is much more important. While, SMU took care of a hot Temple team that upset Memphis the week prior, but Temple has been a terrible road team. This is an interesting match-up between two similar coaches that were on the Texas Tech staff that used to recruit these areas that they now coach at. Holgorsen @ Houston, and Dykes up near Dallas with SMU. This game is a very big deal to Houston when you consider the recruiting aspect. I know everyone wants to say Houston has quit on the season, but that's just not the fact. Houston is still playing hard, and if there is a game they are going to show up for it's this gamea gainst an in state rival. I think all the pressure is on SMU ranked #16 in the AP poll with a huge game on deck against Memphis that a lot of writers are talkinga bout being the ABC game next week with a potential College Game Day appearance. These players could be peaking ahead to that game. This is also the exact opposite situation a slast year. Houston was ranked #17, traveling to play SMU a team with a few losses, and they pulled the upset. The home team has won the last 4 matchups, and I expect Houston to be in this game throughout. Houston gets their QB back for this game in Clayton Tune, which should be a big deal. Houston's average recruiting over the last 4 years is 15 spots higher than SMU ranking #61.5 in the country on average compared to SMU 76.75 so overall more talent on the Houston side and even with players sitting out, this does not deserve to be a 17 point difference on a neutral field on talent alone. So if my handicap is right. The talent is similar, the coaching is similar, the motivation for Houston should be at its highest, and the pressure should all be on SMU, then we are getting tremendous value. I want to look at the matchup as well and when I do I see that both offenses are relatively the same from a yards per play perspective against similar average defenses. Houston @ 33 against an average defense ranking 67, and SMU 37 against an opponent average 60. Defensively Houston has been bad, but they have faced a far different schedule with an average opponent offense ranking 45th compared to SMu who has faced an average opponent offense ranking 86.5 in yards per play. SMU's opponent YPP differentiation is -0.4, compared to Houston's which is +0.8. Both teams ironically are run first teams, and that's going to be the key of the game. Houston 8th in rushing yards per carry, SMU is 65th, and the big question is can SMU stop Houston's running game which would be required to blow them out. Eventhough they rank 26th in run defense it's come against an average opponent rushing offense ranking 82nd. North Texas and TCU both inside the top 50 in rushing offense ran for 200+ yards, which I think Houston will be able to do here. SMU ranks 85th in 20+ yard rushes, which is not a good matchup considering they haven't played many good running teams. They gave up over 150 yards to a Tulsa team that ranks 124th in yards per carry. SMU will definitely get theirs in the passing game, but again, all the pressure int he world is on this SMU team. Houston also has a huge advantage in special teams ranking 10th in the country against an opponent special team srnaking 54th compared to SMU ranking 93rd, against an opponent rank of 97. Special teams could win Houston this game otherwise I expect a back and forth battle. |
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10-20-19 | Raiders +5 v. Packers | 24-42 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Raiders +5 2.2% play |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
Colts -1 5.5% NFL POD |
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10-19-19 | Air Force -3 v. Hawaii | 56-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Air Force -3 -115 3.3% play Air Force is the more balanced team, while Hawaii is off a devastating loss to Boise last week. I think Air Force will be better than most at traveling to the Islands to play a game late. Air Force ranks 87th vs. the pass which is a concern, but they have faced a very tough scheudle an average opponent QB rating 38.2, and i was very impressed with how this team shut out Fresno in the second half. Hawaii ranks 128th in TO margin as well. Air Force goes up against Hawaii's 107th run defense here, and don't be surprised if Air Force throws a couple of passing TD's as well. They are fully capable of pulling that off. Air Force also has turned the ball over a ton, but they have a 17% fumble recovery rate which has been more unlucky than anything. Air Force will control the pace and mood of this game, and come out with a win by a TD or more. |
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10-19-19 | Florida State +1.5 v. Wake Forest | 20-22 | Loss | -109 | 42 h 2 m | Show | |
Florida State +1.5 4.4% This is just the second time in the last 27 meetings that Florida State is an under dog to Wake Forest. The obvious reason is the talent gap and nothing has changed the Wake Forest program has averaged a national recruiting ranked #62 over the last 3 years compared to Florida State’s #10 ranking. The biggest question mark I have for Florida State is their coaching staff. Can they take advantage of Wake Forest’s obvious weaknesses and shut this offense down?
For Florida State, their 3 losses came against top defenses in Boise STate ranking 42nd in yards per play defense against an average Opp ranking 68th (similar to Wake’s opponent ranking), Clemson #5, and Virginia #10. Florida State’s offense should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air as Wake ranks 97th in yards per play allowed, and that’s against an average offense ranking 65th, which is very similar to Boise strength of schedule, but Wake ranks far worse. FSU was able to score in the 30’s on a good Boise team.
Now Wake Forest offense has looked great, but a deeper look and we see they haven’t played a defense with a pulse. They have played just 1 team in the top 100 in pass defense, which was North Carolina, a defense that has similar stats to Florida State, but still FSU’s numbers are bette, and more balanced. Wake only managed 24 points in that game, and that was with a healthy Jamie Newman who rushed for 78 yards and 2 TD’s. I like Sam Hartman a lot and I think he’s an NFL QB someday, but he’s not mobile like Newman. The average opponent pass defense for Wake Forest is 96.2. At the end of the day FSU has faced a tougher schedule with an opponent average YPP differentiation of +.73, and they have earned a +0.1 YPP differential. Their defense has been getting better despite what last week’s performance against a determined Clemson team might tell you. Wake Forest’s average opponent YPP differential is -0.4, which means they have been playing bad opponents, and they haven’t even managed a positive YPP differential yet they are 6-1. We faded Wake Forest last week, and I’m doing it again here. |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Washington +3 3.3% play Oregon won this game last year by 3 at home in OT as 3.5 point dogs, and now they are 3 point favorites on the road, which is telling you they would be 9.5 point favorites at home? I just don't see it personally. The defense ranks #3 in the country , but they haven't faced a single offense ranked in the top 50, as their average opponent ranks 83.6 in yards per play. Washington ranks 33rd, and is a balanced offense ranking 33rd in ypc, and 40th in QB Rating. Of the 10 opponent units that Oregon has faced they have only faced 1 in the top 50, and that was Auburn's 24th ranked rushing attack. Oregon was outgained in teh game by 51 yards and -.36 yards per play. I know Washington had to replace a ton of experience from last year, but they too lost to Auburn a year ago, but they were +.95 YPP in that game. The talent and recruiting over the last 3 years has been nearly identical, and Washington owns one of the best home field advantages in the country. I think the loss of their top receiving target Jacob Breeland is going to be huge, and they have had struggles in the red zone. Some of Washington's defensive struggles are not real in my opinion. They really let USC run on them until they got down into the red zone where they forced turnovers. I could see the same thing happening here. Washington's offense on the flip side should find success on the ground, and Chris Petersen is very familiar with the DC Andy Avalus at Oregon who played under him when he was at Boise, and was also a LB coach. |
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10-19-19 | New Mexico +19.5 v. Wyoming | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
New Mexico +19 2.2% Play Sustained winds of 20mph with gusts of 35 mph in this game dropping the total from 54 to 49, and the spread has not dropped at all, which is giving us more value on the Lobos here. I also think they match-up well if they can avoid turning the ball over, and the weather also benefits them more than Wyoming. We are also getting an inflated price here based off the last two meetings 31-3, and 42-3 for Wyoming, but Wyoming has won some misleading games this year, and have a ton of issues right now.
Their safeties coach is suspended for DUI. Their 2 best run blockers Abojei, and Velzasquez may not play. Abojei is definitely out and it sounds like Velzasquez probably won’t play. They are also without 2 of their top 3 running backs. This is all happening toa team that runs teh ball 68.9 % of the time, and completes less than 40% of their passes playing in a game with windy conditions.
Meanwhile New Mexico comes into this game and they too are not completing above 50% of their passes, but they are actually better at running the ball ranking 26th in yards per carry compared to Wyoming’s 86th ranking. Now some of that is due to strength of schedule as New Mexico has faced an average run defense ranking 100.6, while Wyoming has faced 72.4, but that evens out with the fact that Wyoming is dealing with all those injuries. New Mexico is actually decent at defending the run ranking 41st going up against a 78.6 average YPC offense compared with WYoming’s stout run defense ranking 7th, but that has come against a 103.4 average opponent rushing ypc offense. New Mexico is also better at explosive runs ranking 25th compared to wyoming #75, and on defense, both teams are about the same. New Mexico has given up just 19 runs of 10+ yards compared to Wyoming who has given up 22. Wyoming is being outgained by 50ypg, and they trailed by double digits in 4 games three of which they came back and won. I don’t really understand this spread, and the injuries and weather only benefit our side more. New Mexico also has an extra day to prepare for this game. |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Syracuse +4 2.2% play Do you want to bet on a team that blew a 23 point lead, and committed 15 penalties in their last road game. I have been high on Pitt all year, and have profited with them as they have gone 4-2 ATS, and now off a bye it's time to sell high on this team that is still growing in their new offense. They go up against a Syracuse team who has a very good home field advantage, and they have an extra day to prepare for this game. 61% of the money is on Pitt in this game, and I've heard almost everyone in the media calling for Pitt to win big, and many are pointing out Syracuse's offensive line which has played poorly. I can't argue with that, and going up against Pitt's defensive line which has a ton of sacks, and among the leaders in havoc rate. However, Syracuse's defensive line also has some elite players, and I think their defense is getting disrespected here being a 4 point home dog I think there is a ton of value for a defense that is under rated. Syracuse has given up some big point totals this year, against Maryland, Clemson, Western Michigan and all 3 of those offenses have something in common. They can run the hell out of the ball ranking 7th, 10th, and 17th in yards per carry. Pitt is not that type of offense under Mark Whipple. They rank 112th in ypc offense, the other 3 teams Syracuse faced scored 3, 0, and 16 points. NC State's offense is very close to what Pitt offers, and Syracuse very impressively held them to 16 points on the road last week. I can see another defensive struggle as Pitt gets into third and longs, and Syracuse also can bring havoc witha 20.4% havoc rate that typically only gets better at home. Syracuse's offense has to step up in this game, and to be honest they can only look better. Looking at Syracuse's offense they are almost identical to Duke's offense that came back against Pitt. Syracuse actually has a far better QB Rating which is where you need to attack this PItt defense. The fact that Duke had 6 TO's in the game and only lost by 3 has to say something about this Pitt team. You may expect a better performance from Narduzzi and Pitt out of the bye? Well over the last 3 years they have gone just 1-2, and for a defensive minded coach you'd think the defense would play better off the bye, but they gave up 45, 34, and 39 points in those situations. IT's clear this defense was clicking until the 2nd half of the Duke game, and then they went into the bye for me at the wrong time. Syracuse also has advantages in special teams ranking 30th in the nation compared to Pitt's 105th ranking. This should play a huge factor in tonight's game. I often feel the special teams advantage's only increase when you are at home. At the end of the day I don't think much separates Duke and Syracuse and Pitt and NC State, which are both these last two team opponents. Both games were inside a posession and I see the sme thing happening here. |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Marshall +5 3.3% play This is a buy low spot on a team that is 1-5 ATS in Marshall, but is typically one of the better ATS teams going up against an overrated Florida Atlantic team that is 4-2 ATS. Doc Holliday is a great coach at Marshall. He is 7-2 ATS the last 3 years as a road dog, and he always takes these games with the Florida schools seriously, because he does a lot of recruiting in the state. Marshall is 12-3 since 2013 vs. the Florida schools or games played in the sunshine state including 3-0 in bowl games. Marshall has a lot of Florida players as well, and I think they have a good shot at pulling the upset.
When we look at these two teams I really can’t figure out why this is not FAU -3. Marshall’s offense and defense is better. Their blended YPP differential vs. opponent YPP differential is about a half yard better at -0.48 compared to FAU’s -0.9. They both have played and lost to two TOP25 teams. I think this line is inflated because right away people are going to look at the most recent results and see that Marshall lost against Middle Tennessee on the road and FAU beat them at home. Marshall had a misleading loss they were actually +1.02 YPP in that game +177 total yards, but were -4 TO. FAU was outgained against Middle Tennessee by 95 yards on their home turf and were -1.34 YPP. That’s a difference of 2.36 yards per play, and FAU is getting credit in the market when they shouldn’t be. 76% of the money on FAU here tonight, and I could not disagree more. For Marshall to be successful they need to establish the run, and they rank 18th in YPC going up against a defense ranking 97th at stopping the run. FAU’s defensive #’s look better than they actually are. This is a poor defense ranking 109th in YPP defense giving up 27 and 31 points to lesser teams like Charlotte and Ball State. Marshall has the ingredients to win as a dog on the road. They hung right with Boise despite not playing their best game, and that was a much more difficult trip. Marshall has an experienced line and rank 18th at protecting their QB, and have only allowed a 7.89 % havoc rate. They have been poor in TO margin, while FAU has been very good, but I think that’s largely due to the fact that Marshall has been unlucky recovering just 33% of fumbles, and FAU has recovered 71% of their fumbles. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Broncos +3 2.2% play |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State +6.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
ARkansas State +6 3.3% play |
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10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
Cardinals +3 -120 5.5% |
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10-13-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Texans +4 3.3% play |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +10.5 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Bengals +10.5 2.2% |
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10-12-19 | Florida +13.5 v. LSU | 28-42 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 45 m | Show | |
Florida +13 3.3% PLAY / Florida +420 1% PLAY I really don’t understand the line here, I understand it is tough to get back up for a game after you beat Auburn at home, but there is no talent gap between these two teams. In fact Florida has out recruited LSU in 2 of the last 3 years with an average rank of 7.6 compared to LSU 11.6, so why is this spread so high? Night game in Death Valley? LSU just 16-16 ATS their last 32 night games here. LSU Coaching? This is the same staff that lost 27-19 on the road to Florida as favorites last year. Dan Mullen also beat LSU 37-7 in 2017 at Miss State as 7.5 point dogs, so we know the coaching is better on the Florida side. In 2016 when LSU beat Miss State ED O hadn’t taken over yet, but even still they only won by 3 points as 13 point favorites. Florida was +1 in this game at home last year, is LSU suddenly 6-7 points better than this team. I don’t think so. The spread in this game should be 6 or 7 maybe 8 for the situation. The big reason is the hype of this LSU offense, and Joe Burrow, but let’s slow down a bit.
LSU has faced an average defense ranking 89th in ypp, they have faced an average opponent sack rate ranking 101st, and an average pass defense ranking 88.5. Florida ranks 18th, 11th, and 11th in those categories. What has Joe Burrow done against top pass defenses? He played 6 games vs. top pass defenses, and 4 of them were at home last year. His completion % in those game 45%, 44%, 55% , 50% 57%, 51%, 1 TD and 4 INT’s. LSU’s receivers are elite this year, but guess what Terrace Marshall is doubtful, which is a huge loss. You make it much easier to defend 2 WR’s than 3. Florida’s defense that allowed just 5.6 yards /attempt and 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s last year can put this Burrow Hesiman madness to rest on Saturday night. LSU just 43rd in sack % allowed and that’s against an average opponent sack % ranking of 101.25. Florida 11th in sack %, 22.2% havoc rate, and #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers. LSU has not shown an ability to run the ball like they have in the past, and their run defense has not been good in short yardage. Don’t be surprised to see some packages for Florida’s freshman QB Emory Jones who is a real threat to run the ball. Kyle Trask’s banged up knee is not something I’m worried about, and if he’s having issues Emory Jones showed he’s every bit capable to come in and lead the offense, and to be honest he’s probably a better QB anyway. The only time LSU faced an offense this year was Texas, and they really struggled. They were lucky to win that game I thought, as Texas dropped a wide open TD which LSU took over on downs, and scored a TD, which ended up being a huge momentum shift in the game with a 14 point swing. Florida also has the edge on special teams ranking 7th in efficiency to LSU’s 26th ranking. |
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10-12-19 | Utah -14 v. Oregon State | 52-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show | |
Utah -14 2.2% play I like the Utes here off a bye that was much needed, and fading Oregon State off their first win in the PAC 12 in quite some time. I liked what I’ve seen from Oregon State, but the defense is still a major question mark. The last time they went up against a team that was balanced on offense like Utah they gave up 52 points. Utah I would argue has just as good of a RB in Zach Moss as Oklahoma State, who is probable for this game, and Tyler Huntley is much more experienced than the freshman Oklahoma State is starting. Utah’s defense is also significantly better than Oklahoma State that is outside the top 50 in run defense and pass defense. Utah will be able to stop Oregon State’s rushing offense as they rank 10th in ypc allowed. Oregon State has not faced any good defenses this year so the offense has looked great, but that’s about to change. The average opponent run defense that Oregon State has faced ranks 99th. Utah should be able to force Oregon State into third and long, and that will be an issue as they have struggled to convert. Utah also great at taking care of the ball, ranking 5th in TO margin, and I think they have something to prove to the nation, and will look to have an explosive offensive performance. Utah really has yet to play a complete game, and this would be a good time to do so. |
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10-12-19 | Louisville +7 v. Wake Forest | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
Louisville +7 4.4% play I think Louisville might be able to win this game outright. I don't like to look at common opponents as a key indicator, but it's worth noting. Louisville +101 yards vs. Boston College, and Wake Forest -93 yards. This is an extremely inflated number in my opinion base don the fact taht Wake Forest is 6-0 and ranked 17th in the country, but Louisville has faced the far tougher schedule. Louisville's defensive staff also is familiar with Wake Forests offense as they played Wake in 2017 while at App State. App State lost 20-19 but missed an extra point and two field goals. Both teams come into this game with a zero yards per play differential. The big difference however ist he fact that Louisville's opponent YPP differential is +0.7 while Wake Forests is -0.6 for a difference of 1.3 yards per play. Louisville's offense is actually better statistically than Wake Forest with more balance, and they have faced a significantly tougher schedule in terms of defenses faced. Louisville's 29th ranking in YPP against an average opponent YPP 45.75 compared to Wake Forest's 48th YPP O against an average 82nd defense. This is the best offense that Wake Forest has faced season to date, and the most balanced. North CArolina and Boston College blended rushing offense / passing offense vs. opponent defense blended is 52.5 vs. (60.5), and 45th vs. (79) compared with Louisville who comes into the game with a #36 blended offensive average up against defense ranking (44.5 blended). So they've been the better offense and have faced a tougher defense. I think Louisville can have a big day, and I like Cunningham here at QB for Louisville. He adds something extra to this offense, and he has passed the ball well completing 65% of his passes 5 TD's and 1 INT for a 190 QB Rating playing just as good against BC's pass defense as Newman from Wake Forest. Of course he can run the ball too and that's been a problem for Wake in the past. Last year they faced two QB's that could run in Ian Book, and Eric Dungey. They gave up 162 yards rushing in those two games to the QB on 34 carries and gave up 56 and 41 points in both games that were losses. Wake is off a bye here and you have to mention it but Wake is 0-6 under Dave Clawson off a bye. They've lost to good teams and average teams. The last 5 years they have lost by 21, 14, 8, 21, and 23 points out of a bye. I think Wake is fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season and Louisville seems to be turning the corner. |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 6 m | Show |
Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Stock for Penn State probably could not be higher right now after the last two weeks, and Iowa after their performance against Michigan could not be lower, but I watched that game, and they just had a bad game. Stanley threw 3 interceptions, and the offensive line played poorly, but they still had chances to win at the end of the game. Iowa was the better team than Michigan. Stanley is a veteran QB, that has only thrown 2 or more INT’s twice in a game and I don’t see him making those mistakes back at home where he has a 34 TD to 8 INT’s over his career. Penn State has shown some red flags this season which are buried. Against Buffalo, a physical team in the trenches, much like Iowa they were -106 yards rushing and were trailing at the half at home and being outgained. Against Pitt at home they were -150 yards passing. I could totally see Nathan Stanley having a great game here on Saturday night. Penn State really hasn’t proven anything? Yeah they rank #3 in total defense and that’s what is carrying them right now as they lack a dominant RB, and they have an inexperienced QB. However, Penn STate has faced an average ypp offense ranking 93.5, and opponent average ypc offense ranking 82.75, and an opponent average QB rating ranking 93.25. Iowa is easily the most balanced attack that Penn State’s defense has seen. Penn State has faced Iowa State, and Michigan on the road so far. I just don’t know if I can trust Penn State with an inexperienced QB on the road against an Iowa defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays. They rank 2nd in the nation in 20+ yard plays allowed, and that’s what Penn State relies on in their offense right now. I just expect this to be a fight through 4 quarters with Iowa leading most of the way. Since 2000, Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS as a home dog, and they are 25-15-2 ATS following a SU loss in the last 10 years. Iowa actually outgained Penn State on the road last year in their 6 point loss. |
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10-12-19 | Michigan State +10.5 v. Wisconsin | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 5 m | Show | |
Michigan State +10.5 2.2% play Mich St +10.5 / Under 40.5 1% parly @ +265 Michigan State and the under is clearly correlated in my opinion, and with 16mph winds with gusts of 34mph, I expect both teams to lean on the running game, and both teams to struggle in the red zone.
This feels like a game Michigan State would win. The only thing keeping me off making this a larger play, and a play on the money line is the fact that this is Michigan State’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Michigan State has a balanced defense and they have faced the tougher schedule by far. The two have a common opponent in Northwestern, and Michigan State was +74 yards on the road while Wisconsin struggled at home -9 yards.
I think this line is inflated for a few different reasons. The idea that Jack Coan is a superior QB, because of his stat line, and completion %, but he did not look good at all vs. Northwestern. Wisconsin’s offensive line does have vulnerability in pass protection and they are going up against a Michigan State team that can get to the QB Ranking 36th in sack % and have a 20.7% havoc rate. Also, Michigan State gave up 300+ yards rushing to Ohio State last week, but that was against Ohio State on the road at night, against a superior QB, that not only has a great arm, but can run the ball. Wisconsin’s defense is ranked #1, but I would question that a little bit as they have faced an average offense ranking 95.2 in ypp offense. Michigan State’s offense actually has not been that bad ranking 64th, which is good when you consider they have faced an average defense ranking 43.5 in ypp allowed. Michigan State is getting completely disrespected here, and the one thing most people won’t talk about is the hidden yardage on special teams. Wisconsin ranked 101st last year in special teams efficiency, and this year they rank 115th. Michigan State ranks around 49th, but they have an excellent punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging 47.63 yards per punt. Major advantage in special teams for Michigan State. |
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10-12-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee +7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
Tennessee +7 2.2% PLAY Miss State is off a bye and has LSU on deck, but that’s factored into the line here. Miss State did not play well off a bye last year putting up just 3 points at LSU. They also lost their bowl game. Tennessee meanwhile played better than the final indicated alst week, and they moved to a new QB who gave this offense a spark. I see no reason why Tennessee can’t win this game outright, as they have more talent. The last 3 years Tennessee has averaged a 12.6 recruiting class compared to Miss State’s 25.6. I can’t say that Miss State’s Joe Morehead is a better coach than Jeremy Pruitt. I think both coaches are pretty similar, and both teams are pretty similar. The one difference to me is strength of schedule as Tennessee just got done facing Georgia, and Florida two teams that are better than anyone on Miss State’s schedule.
Miss State is -0.2 YPP differential compared to Tennessee’s -0.7, but their opponent differentials vary as Miss State’s opponents are +.22, but Tennessee’s are +.875. I think we are still getting value with Tennessee from their early season loss against Georgia State. This team led 13-10 at Georgia last week, and I think they match-up well here in this one, and don’t forget Tennessee won at Auburn last year and beat a Kentucky team at home that was a 10 win team. Tennessee’s run defense has been the strength of the team. They rank 63rd, but have gone against a tough schedule opponent rank of 58th. Georgia has been the only team that has been able to run extremely well. Miss State needs to run the ball to win as they run 60% of the time and feature a running QB. While they rank 28th, they have gone against a very weak opponent run defense ranking 85.4. Tennessee also I think can get the running game going in this one, which is a big key for them, especially with a young QB. Miss State ranks 89th in defending the run, and have given up over 4 yards per carry in every single game. This is supposed to be a down year for Miss State, I think these teams are pretty even and we are getting 7 points at home. |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse +4.5 v. NC State | 10-16 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Syracuse +4.5 2.2% play Syracuse and NC State are really similar coming off a season where they both lost their veteran QB. I think NC State lost a bit more on offense having lost their offensive coordinator and have struggled offensively this season just as Syracuse has struggled. I think the line move from 3 to 1.5 is giving us some value here, and I think people still can't get that Maryland game out of their mind which again should be giving us value here and moving forward. Syracuse has also faced a tougher schedule. Yeah they have struggled to stop the run, but their opponent average ypc is ranked 35.75. I think Syracuse will sell out to stop the run here, and force NC State into passing situations where their QB will make mistakes especially with the shuffling of the offensive line. NC State is missing their Senior RT Justin Witt and they are starting a true freshmen in his place, but moving him to the LT and moving the LT to the right side to protect the blind side of a lefty throwing QB. Syracuse's offensive line has struggled as well, but they have gone against tough competition, opponent average sack rate ranking 48th, and opponent havoc rate 17.55%, and theve had to do it with 3 new offensive line starters. They come off a bye, which is a good spot for Syracuse, and I think Dino Babers has expressed he wants to pick the tempo up, and I think they do that here tonight which will help the offensive line vs. a very good defensive front from NC State. NC State's defense ranks 28th in YPP allowed, but they have faced an average opponent ranking 92.25. The opponent YPP differentiation for both of these teams is extremely different. Syracuse has faced an opponent average +0.7, and NC State -0.48. What's concerning is NC State's defense which is getting a lot of credit here gave up 31 and 44 points to Florida State and West Virginia already. Turnovers and special teams will be a big key in this game, and I feel Syracuse has the edge in that regard as well. Theyr ank 29th in TO margin compared to NC State's 67th ranking, and Syracuse faced a tougher schedule in that regard. Syracuse has the top punter in the country with a big leg who will make NC State's offensive troubles continue here. Syracuse returned their PK who went 30-34 last year, which is key when you are taking a spread of +4.5. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +6 v. Chargers | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Broncos +6 2.2% play |
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10-06-19 | Bears -5.5 v. Raiders | 21-24 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Bears -5.5 2.2% play |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers +3.5 5.5% POD |
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10-05-19 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Duke | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 46 m | Show |
Pitt +5 5.5% NCAAF POD Duke off a huge win over Virginia Tech as a dog on national TV last Friday, and Pitt just got by Delaware 17-14, but that was expected after beating UCF the week before, benching their starting QB, and half of their starters to get healthy for this game. Pitt has faced a tougher schedule by far with 3 quality opponents compared to Duke’s 1 quality opponent. I think these offenses are about even, but Pitt is stronger defensively ranking 32nd in YPP allowed against an average offense ranking 45th, compared to Duke’s 57th ranking, and 69th opponent average offense. Duke’s defense weakness is Pitt’s offensive strength, and Duke’s offensive strength is Pitt’s defensive strength. Pitt has owned the series and Narduzzi has owned Cutcliffe. Pitt is a different style team this year, and it actually lines up better in the matchups for them. Duke’s weakness and inexperience is in the secondary. They really have not been tested, but Pitt features a new offense led by OC Mark Whipple, and the top passing duo in FBS with Maruice French and Taysir Mack. I honestly think Pitt can be more balanced here than Duke can. Quentin Harris has been great, but he can’t stretch the field, and against top defenses like Pitt who can stop the run, and stop the pass Duke tends to struggle to put up points. Harris is Duke’s offense he leads the team in rushing yards, and attempts, and they go up against the 25th ranked rushing defense, and a defense that is second in the country with 24 sacks, and has a 23.5% havoc rate. Duke also starts two red shirt freshman at the tackle position, and they’ve played well so far protecting the QB, but on average they have faced #81.6 sack % defense, and Pitt ranks 4th. |
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10-05-19 | Air Force v. Navy +3.5 | 25-34 | Win | 100 | 38 h 10 m | Show | |
Navy +3.5 2.2% play Air Force has gotten 71% of the bets so far, and the line has moved 1.5 points giving us value on the home dog here. I really don’t understand the move. Air Force has been a team I have backed and have been disappointed in as they really have struggled turning the ball over, and I really don’t anticipate it to stop here, as they are 123rd in TO margin. Air Force is also in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 5th overall game, and 4th game in 21 days, 3 of which are on the road, and here they have to travel over 1600 miles to face a Navy team with an extra day of rest. Navy QB Malcom Perry is now probably for this game, and Air Force’s QB Donald Hammond has been banged up each of the last two games. The stat that surprised me the most was Navy ranking 23.2% in havoc rate comparing that with Air Force has a 12.9% havoc rate. I think that’s critical to defending the option, and Navy has a 25% third down conversion defense compared to Air Force giving up 48%. The 3.5 points are valuable with a low total of 45, and the Under has gone 31-8 over the last 13 years when service academies face off against each other. |
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10-05-19 | Auburn v. Florida +3 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Florida +2.5 3.3% play I was waiting for a 3, and you may be able to continue to wait, as it's -115, to take Auburn -2.5, but the books seem very hesitant to push this to 3 despite having 64% of the money on Auburn, and you can actually take Florida at +102 odds at Pinnacle, one of the sharper books out there. I think Florida pulls the upset. Auburn comes into this game 5-0 ATS, and 71% of tickets are on Auburn. This gives us line value as many are talking about how impressive they have been against a tough schedule. I would question that because Texas A&M almost lost to Arkansas last week, a team that lost at home to San Jose State. Miss State is down this year as well so that beat down last week was not surprising, and Auburn got lucky beating Oregon, a team that just barely got by Stanford a week ago 21-6, a Stanford team that got blown out by multiple teams already this season. The stats back it up, as Florida has actually faced tougher defenses on average 51 ypp, compared to Auburn’s 66.4, and their offensive YPP ranks 21st, to Auburn’s 35th. The QB play for Florida has been better and I like Trask’s ability and decision making I think he’s an upgrade over Feleipe Franks.
The biggest story in this game supposedly is Florida’s offensive line which is breaking in 4 new starters against this talented Auburn defensive line, but I would argue, and have to think Florida’s defensive line feels disrespected here. They get to go up against a freshman QB at home, they sport the nation’s #2 sack %, and have a 25% havoc rate, and Bo Nix really hasn’t been scary throwing the ball to date. The key for Florida is going to be stopping the Auburn’s running game, and they have yet to allow a 100 yard game with the exception of the road game at Kentucky. Here they’re home, and getting some defensive starters back. Auburn just 3-13 when they are held under 130 yards rushing, and while they rank 18th in YPC average run defense they have faced ranks 80.2, and here they face the 22nd ranked run defense. To go along with that is the 23rd ranked passing defense, and they can leave their corners on an island against this Auburn offense while committing extra bodies to the run. Dan Mullen has had great success against Auburn in his career. Going 2-2 straight up, and 3-1 ATS, as all 4 meetings when he was at Miss State he was an underdog. The two times he beat Malzahn he was less than a FG Dog like he is in this game. At the end of the day I think the strength of schedule that Auburn has faced has been blown out of proportion. Auburn went 1-3 on the road last year, and the last 3 years when they are facing a defense that can stop the run/pass they are 0-7, losing by a margin of 14 points per game, while averaging just 12.5 points per game. Night game here, and Florida is being disrespected as a small dog I think they force Nix into some costly mistakes and hold up against the run and find a way to win this game. |
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10-05-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut +11.5 | 48-22 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
Connecticut +11 2.2% play Uconn is improving under the radar while USF is continuing to get worse under Charlie Strong. This was a 30-38 loss for Uconn last year on the road as Uconn had 322 yars rushing in the game. I don't understand this line as the stats and opponent stats are nearly identical in this matchup, but we get Uconn at home hungry for a conference win, playing in 47 degree weather something that South Florida is not used to at all. This game was moved up from a 7pm start due to a Mosquito situation impacting the state, but I think that really benefits the home team in this situation. So let's look at the stats. Uconn 117th in yards per play, but have gone up against an average defense ranking 46.33, compare that with South Florida who ranks 127th in yards per play having gone up against a slightly toughter average opponent defense ranking 33.33. Both teams rank 128th and 126 running the ball having gone up against similar run defenses, South Florida has faced 52nd average defnese compared to Uconn 54th. Being at home helps the rushing offense, and Uconn wants to establish the run. Uconn gets to go up against the 93rd ranked run defense should help them move the ball in this one. The X-factor in this one is Uconn moving on from a grad transfer to the RS Freshman QB Steven Karjewski who had 3 TD's ad 273 yards passing a week ago. I think tha tshould help them in this gme, as they will have a chance to win this game outright |
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10-05-19 | Tulane v. Army +2.5 | 42-33 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Army +3 -125 3.75 % play Both teams are off a bye, but Tulane has not played in 16 days, which is not a great situation to be in this early in the season. They are also traveling all the way up to New York to play and the temperatures will be in the 40’s which is cold for the Louisiana boys. Jeff Monken is one of the most underrated head coaches still, and has Army sitting at 3-1, and is also off a bye here. The last 2 years with extra time to prepare Army has been dominant going 6-0 outscoring opponents 36-12.5 on average in those games. They know how to defend the run, which Tulane boasts a heavy does of, and they have been able to get to the QB with a 13th ranked sack %. How many times can you say that about a service academy? Tulane has struggled in these matchups as they only beat Navy 29-28 last year, and Navy lost to Army 21-0. In 2017 they beat Army at home as a 3 point favorites 21-17, but Army was -3 turnovers, and they gave up two big runs against Tulane with a 75 yard run and 72 yard run in the first half. Army’s defense just doesn’t give up big plays anymore. Last year they ranked #12 in big running plays allowed, and this year they have only allowed 10 runs of 10+ yards while Tulane has allowed 21 10+ yard runs. I just don’t understand why there is a 6 point swing between these two teams, and I get I’m backing a popular dog this week, but Army is just not your traditional team, and they have the better coach, and play so well at home. I think being a dog here they will have a chip on their shoulders, and this is just Tulane’s 7th game in 13 years as a road favorite. |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +4 3.3% play I like the Bearcats here at home and I definitely think if you like the Bearcats it’s correlated with the Under 63, but I’m not going there tonight. I think this is a completely different game than last year. First of all Cinci got behind early 21-6 at the half and had to lean on a freshman QB in Ridder, and he just didn’t play well. Cinci actually ran the ball well in that game going for 252 yards, and UCF run defense is not as good this year. So far they rank 56th vs. the run compared to 103rd ypc average offense faced. Last year they ranked 43rd, vs. 62nd ypc average offense faced. UCF passing attack also not as good in my opinion. Dillon Gabriel has looked the part and came out of the same high school as McKenzie Milton, but he’s still a freshman, and in a game against a similar defense to Cincinnati he was sacked 6x and threw 2 interceptions. How similar is Cinci and Pitt’s defenses? Well Cincinnati ranks 32nd vs. the run, and Pitt ranks 25th, both against similar competition (65 vs. 65.5 on average opponent ypc offense). Cinci’s pass defense ranks 24th in QB Rating allowed compared to Pitt’s 36th, and Pitt has faced better passing teams. Pitt ranks 4th ins ack %, and Cinci ranks 26th, both against equal competition (Cinci has faced opponent average sack % allowed of 83.75 to Pitt’s 84th). UCF is 79th in sack % allowed, and 102nd in sack % so they are not playing as well in the trenches compared with last year. Now UCF got down big at Pitt, but Pitt is not a running team anymore, and couldn’t put UCF away. Pitt’s offensive strength is passing the ball, and they tried to go away from that, and it nearly backfired on them. I think Cincinnati can grind out drives if they get an early lead which is what I am expecting. Cinci also got hit with explosive plays last year, and that’s what UCF is all about and nothing has changed in that regard. However, Cinci ranks 13th in 10+ yard plays allowed, and in less games last year they allowed double the # of 20+ yard plays on the road vs. home, which is where they are this year compared to last year playing at UCF. Ridder at QB for Cinci also looks like he has gotten better, and he had a 185 QB rating at home last year compared to 116 on the road as a freshman, which is not surprising at all when you factor in he faced Temple and UCF on the road. This year he’s playing better he just put up 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s against a solid Marshall program that ranked 36th vs. the pass, and gave Boise State a big game on the road. This line indicates that Cinci is 6 points worse than last year or UCF is 6 points better, but I would argue Cinci has gotten better, and UCF has gotten a little worse. I think Nippert Stadium at night on a Friday is an underrated place to play and Cinci will be ready for the upset. |