*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start in Dallas. It is a noon local start in Dallas. 

The Mavericks have been much better on defense at home this year than on the road. Dallas is 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are struggling to score in the halfcourt. 

Philadelphia is one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. The 76ers lack elite scoring options now. Philadelphia is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games, so they too are struggling quite a bit on offense.

The early Sunday unders have been good in the last 15 years, and they have been even better in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have won a 62-58 contest two days ago and a 57-55 contest on Friday. They play Iona in a game where two lower seeds pulled upsets and got to the title game.

Iona's game against Quinnipiac went over the total on Friday, but it was just 65 possessions. The Quinnipiac defense was very weak in the paint in that game. Mt. St. Mary's is first in shot selection allowed in the MAAC, and I think they can make things tougher on Iona.

Iona's pressure defense should give the Mountaineers guards a lot of trouble. I think Mt. St. Mary's will waste quite a few possessions here. 

Conference tournament final games have been good to under bettors especially in these smaller leagues. It is win and get to the NCAA Tournament or lose and fall just short of that huge goal.

The under is 37-17 at Boardwalk Hall where this game is being played. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team for several years now. Joe Gallo does a tremendous job setting up this matchup zone pressure they use to slow the game down and keep the opposition uncomfortable at all times. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in the MAAC in shot selection allowed according to Shot Quality. The Merrimack offense is too reliant on Clark to take over. Merrimack plays very slowly on offense, and they often end with poor shots near the buzzer.

Merrimack is 4th nationally in turnover percentage on defense. Mount St. Mary's is 356th in turnover percentage on offense. 

These two teams are first and third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in the MAAC Tournament games. This is a very good under gym with the large arena often bothering shooters.

Merrimack has seen 5 of their last 7 games stay under this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Iona Gaels meet in the MAAC Semifinals at Boardwalk Hall on Friday night. 

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in MAAC games. Totals of 134 or higher are a whopping 22-5 to the under here in MAAC Tournament games. This is a tough shooting backdrop for teams that are not accustomed to such a large gym.

Quinnipiac is elite on the defensive glass, and Iona's best offense is their offensive rebounding and second chance points.

Iona is great at forcing turnovers and Quinnipiac struggles to take care of the basketball. 

Both of these teams are below average in getting to the free throw line over the course of the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's and Marist are first and second in the MAAC in shot selection allowed. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in FTA/FGA on defense, so they aren't giving opponents many shots at the stripe. They are also third in defensive rebounding. 

Marist is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. The Red Foxes are 363rd out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA on offense. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished 53-50 and 62-52. Both easily stayed under and now we have a win or go home game at a tough venue.

The under has been money at Boardwalk Hall in the last few seasons.

I expect a slow paced low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays will play DePaul in the Big East Tournament on Thursday night. DePaul upset Georgetown in the first round and is now a double digit underdog to Creighton.

Creighton is an average tempo team, and DePaul likes to slow the game down. Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. DePaul is a solid 78th out of 364 at defending without fouling. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season with combined total points of 122 and 140 points in those games. Creighton will be able to score down low with Kalkbrenner here, but I don't think DePaul has many paths to scoring in this one. Creighton is elite on the defensive glass, and DePaul is going to end up taking a bunch of long range jumpers here. Unless DePaul catches fire from deep against a good Creighton 3 point defense, I think DePaul struggles to score.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. All three of the Big East Tournament games on Wednesday at MSG went under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Thursday Big East battle between Marquette and Xavier should be a good one. 

Marquette won by two at Xavier and Xavier won by two at Marquette. These are two quality teams who should be highly motivated in this clash at Madison Square Garden.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The tough shooting backdrop has given teams fits for many years.

The two games in the regular season were 72-70 and 59-57. The average pace was 68 possessions in those games.

Both of these teams rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 69th and 115th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Xavier's defense has improved drastically down the stretch. They have held four of their last five opponents to 68 points or fewer. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Merrimack Warriors face off in a big MAAC matchup at Boardwalk Hall on Wednesday night.

Merrimack was the betting favorite in this league (to win the conference tournament) according to most sportsbooks. The Warriors have a great matchup zone defense that can really mess up the opposing offense. Joe Gallo is a superb coach who gets the most out of his players.

Sacred Heart almost never gets to the line, and they don't foul very much on defense either.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 131 and 119 points total. This game means more being a win or go home.

Boardwalk Hall has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden has consistently been one of the best under arenas in college basketball. It is a huge place with a difficult shooting backdrop. Big East unders are about 59% in the last 14 years at MSG.

Providence and Butler went way over the total last time they played, but both teams were on fire from 3 point range. Providence went a whopping 16/32 from 3 point range and still lost the game. Butler was 10/19 from 3 point range.

With MSG being tough for shooters, the fact that both of these teams rely heavily on 3 pointers is dangerous for them.

The defenses have been inconsistent, but Shot Quality ranks both in the top 15 in the country in shot selection allowed. Butler doesn't foul much at all. 

I think the pace here is below average and this is a high total for Madison Square Garden in a win or go home spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Fairfield Stags meet at Boardwalk Hall on Tuesday night. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season and it was 148 points total and 145 points total. This is a win or go home game that should mean the tempo should slow down a bit and the referees are usually a little slower to call fouls.

These two offenses rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so they will need to shoot the ball well to get over this total.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The tempo should stay slow when these two teams meet in the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday night.

Rider is 326th in average possession length. Siena is 282nd in average possession length. In the one meeting they had in the regular season it finished 61-59 with a slow pace of just 62 possessions.

Siena relies on getting to the line a lot, but Rider is 36th in the nation in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Siena has a bunch of shot blockers and they have improved quite a bit defensively.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the Sun Belt final. The winner of this one will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas State was first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency during conference play this year. Arkansas State was second in the league in tempo. They are 59th in the nation in tempo, so they definitely look to push the pace.

Troy is 240th in tempo, but both games between these two teams were relatively high in the regular season.

Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. Neither of these teams can get defensive rebounds, so second chance points could really pile up in this contest.

These teams have a history of getting to the line a lot in games against each other.

Because there have been so many unders in conference tournaments this line has been bet down a long way, but I don't think it is justified here. 

The over is 31-25 in this arena. These two teams clearly have some offensive advantages in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars slow the pace down the most of anyone in the Sun Belt. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a semifinal game that means a ton to both teams and that should help the pace slow even more.

Arkansas State is relatively quick, but they are very good defensively too. The Red Wolves just played a fast paced Marshall team, but this game sets up very differently.

Both regular season meetings came in beneath this total. I thought this one was set quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This should be an all out battle in the finale of Arch Madness on Sunday. These are the two best teams in the MVC and they split the regular season series. Drake plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Bradley is a defensive minded team who relies on too many long range jumpers on offense. 

The under is 6-0 in the last two days in this tournament and over 61% to the under in the last 10 years.

I expect a very slow pace here. The two regular season games both stayed under this and now we are in a must win game at a big arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go to Oklahoma City for a big game against the Thunder on Sunday. This is a very early start time in Oklahoma City. It gets underway at noon local time. This is also after clocks moved forward in the night so there was one less hour to sleep and the body clock could be off a bit here.

These early Western Conference unders have been excellent long term. 

Admittedly, this isn't a game I really wanted to bet the under with these two offenses being in top form of late, but the situation and the price makes me feel like there is value here.

Oklahoma is a top two or three defense in the league. Denver is a top ten defense in the league. A total set this high is quite extreme. 

Oklahoma City got up defensively for a showdown with Boston on a Sunday afternoon in January. That game finished 105-92.  I think the Thunder get fired up defensively here too. This game won't be as low scoring, but this total requires more than 60 points per quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed under this posted total. Now, they must go play in a win or go home game in the semifinals of Arch Madness.

All four games stayed under the total in this arena yesterday. The under is now north of 60% in the MVC Tournament in the last decade. 

Bradley has a defensive minded coach, and the Braves have slowed down the pace in both meetings between these two during the regular season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are nothing like the team they were early this year. They are missing two of their key scorers, and with the shorthanded roster they have decided to play much slower on offense. Defensively, Fresno State has started playing a bunch of zone defense to slow the game down. 

Fresno State was routinely playing games around 80 possessions early in the season. Their last two games have been played to a pace of 60 and 59 possessions. 

I think it is hard for the oddsmakers to catch up to that drastic of a change.

San Jose State is 319th in average possession length, so they want to slow the game down. The Spartans are solid on offense, but they also do a good job of defending without fouling.

The first meeting between these two teams was 67-67 heading into overtime. That was before Fresno State slowed their tempo and started playing a zone defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have the top defense in Conference USA. They are allowing just 0.942 points per possession in league play. New Mexico State is also dead last (10th) in Conference USA in effective field goal percentage offense. New Mexico plays at the 303rd ranked tempo in the country. They are very deliberate on the offensive end. 

Sam Houston State has slowed down their pace quite a bit in league play. They are 7th out of 10 in the league in average possession length. They rely on knocking down three point jumpers,  but New Mexico State is 4th in the nation in three point field goal percentage defense. 

Sam Houston has been inconsistent as far as the number of points scored in their games. New Mexico State has been very consistently having low scoring games. I like their chances of dictating this game.

New Mexico State has seen 8 straight games go under this total. They have also seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are dead last in the nation in tempo. Drake often relies on getting to the free throw line a lot to score because their halfcourt offense isn't all that efficient. Belmont is first in the MVC in defending without fouling. 

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 earlier this year and controlled the tempo in a big way. Drake playing from ahead can really take the air out of the basketball.

All four games in the MVC Tournament went under on Friday and the under is above 60% in the last decade at this tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 288th in the country in tempo. They are the better team here, and they are the clear favorite to win. I think Northern Iowa can get a lead and slow the game down. 

Northern Iowa is 20th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also second in the MVC at defending without fouling. 

Valparaiso is 11th in the league in effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in the nation in that statistic. Northern Iowa is tough to beat inside the arc, but Valpo is just a 31.4% shooting team from long range.

This hockey arena is known for unders in Arch Madness. In the last decade, the under sits at about 60% here.

I had this one several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Illinois State RedBirds meet in Arch Madness on Friday afternoon. One of their meetings this year went over the total and the other stayed under this total. 

This arena and this tournament are very well noted for being great to under bettors. 

I realize this game has to have a high total because of the pace Belmont plays at and the efficiency of the Illinois State offense. Even with that being the case, I think this total is set too high given the venue and the situation.

This is a win or go home and the pace likely will slow down a bit as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have caught fire on the offensive end. After having only two games in their first 21 games where they averaged 1.10 points per possession or higher, Northern Kentucky has now scored 1.10 points per possession or more in 8 of their last 10 games! They have been above 1.16 points per possession in 7 of those 10 games. Northern Kentucky put up 85 points against Cleveland State in their most recent matchup.

One of the biggest changes for Northern Kentucky has been their lower turnover rate on offense. Trey Robinson has been on fire and leading the team in the last few weeks. 

Northern Kentucky's biggest weakness on defense is their inability to grab defensive rebounds. Cleveland State is elite at creating second chance opportunities. Cleveland State is first in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency. The Vikings scored 75 and 76 points in the two meetings with Northern Kentucky during the season.

The pace won't be very quick here, but I think the efficiencies will be high enough that this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a tremendous under team in the last couple months. New Mexico State's offense which ranks 340th in effective field goal percentage offense holds them back badly. On the other side though, the Aggies are 21st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

New Mexico State has seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 total points or fewer. 

Louisiana Tech is 319th nationally in pace of play. The Bulldogs have been good offensively against the weaker teams in the league, but Liberty and New Mexico State and Jacksonville State have held them down. 

Louisiana Tech's defense has been quite a bit better at home this year. Daniel Batcho is an elite shot blocker and he should bother New Mexico State here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are the strange team in the Summit League that wants to slow the game down and win with defense. UMKC is last in the league in tempo. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. In a league where most teams are all offense, UMKC stands out as a unique team. 

UMKC lost 78-66 and 77-58 to Omaha in the regular season. Omaha won the league and is the better team, but UMKC was able to control the tempo in both games. The game that finished 78-66 had a bunch of points scored very late in that contest. 

Omaha ranks right in the middle in tempo. The Mavericks have tended to play to the pace of their opponent. They do rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Sanford Sports Complex in South Dakota. This is a neutral court where the under is 51-40 in the last 91. It is clearly at least somewhat helpful to the under. It is a big arena and there won't be too many people here. The shooting backdrop has proved quite difficult for these mid major teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 214th in tempo in the country. UT Martin is 324th in effective field goal percentage on offense. UT Martin is also 316th in offensive turnover percentage. They are first in the Ohio Valley Conference in three pointers attempted. They are up against a Tennessee Tech team that is second in the OVC in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. They are 8th in the country in open 3 rate allowed. UT Martin hasn't shot it well from 3 against them in their regular season meetings.

Tennessee Tech is 280th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are first in the OVC in defending without fouling. The Golden Eagles are poor on the offensive glass, and they rarely get to the free throw line themselves on offense.

The two meetings between these two in the regular season both went to overtime. The first meeting was 70-70 before overtime. The second meeting was 62-62 before overtime and only finished 71-66 after overtime. 

Ford Center is a neutral venue where the under has done well. The average game in the last 27 games here has gone under the total by more than 5 points. Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have clearly changed the way they play in the last few weeks. In fact, Fresno State hasn't played a single game faster than a pace of 70 possessions in the last ten games. Their average pace for the year is 71.6 possessions,  but those lightning quick games with 80 plus possessions back in December mean absolutely nothing right now.

Fresno State is now without Jalen Weaver after he was suspended and then removed from the team. Weaver averaged 12.5 points per game and was a playmaker for the Bulldogs. Amar Augillard is the leading scorer for the year and he is out. Mykell Robinson is also not on the team anymore and he averaged more than 10 points per game. Weaver is the most recent guy removed and he is key.

Wyoming needed overtime to beat Fresno State in the first game between these two. That game was 134 total points before overtime. Wyoming is 352nd in the country in average possession length, so they are playing very slowly. The Cowboys are strong on the defensive glass, and Fresno should be getting just one shot pretty consistently.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Fresno State is shorthanded and playing slower, and Wyoming is happy to slow the pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are a solid offense now, and they are very weak on defense. Virginia takes a lot of three pointers, and they are 21st in the nation in three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers have three regular guys who shoot 39.7% or higher from long range. Florida State ranks 258th in open three rate allowed. 

Florida State is first in the ACC in tempo. The Seminoles will do their best to push the pace of this contest. Florida State is 17th in shot selection allowed defensively in ACC play (out of 18 teams). The Seminoles have allowed 89, 96, and 100 points in their last three games. 

Virginia is 18th (last) in the ACC in shot selection allowed. They are 17th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. They are giving up 1.144 points per possession in conference play. Florida State has a big edge offensively near the hoop and on second chance opportunities with their offensive rebounding.

These are two poor defenses, and I don't think the line here reflects the current status of these defensive units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets aren't very good on offense. Houston is in 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. Houston has scored 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 9 contests.

Oklahoma City has had some very high scoring games of late, but the Thunder are still first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season overall. Houston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The first two times these teams met this year the totals were 220 and 214 points. This is a large adjustment and it is based on OKC's recent high scoring games. I think this is too large of an adjustment.

Justin Van Dyne is one of the refs in this one and in his career his games have gone under at a 55.5% clip.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are one game back of the Quinnipiac Bobcats for first place in the MAAC. Marist will be plenty hyped up for this game with their chances of winning the regular season title still very real.

Marist is 27th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Marist is 13th in defensive rebounding nationally as well. Marist is also 360th out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA, so they aren't getting to the free throw line much at all. Marist is 313th nationally in offensive efficiency overall.

St. Peter's is even worse offensively at 341st nationally. Their best offense is getting offensive rebounds and second chance points. Marist is excellent on the defensive glass though.

These two teams are 332nd in pace (Marist) and 347th in tempo (St. Peter's) and the tempo should be very slow here. The first game between these two was just 59 possessions and it finished 56-51. 

I see another low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves have had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Pepperdine has allowed 90.4 points per game in their last five games. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo, and this Pepperdine team has loads of high scoring games on the road. They have been far more efficient on offense away from home.

Washington State beat Pepperdine 87-86 a couple weeks ago. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in average possession length. Washington State is allowing 88.4 points per game in their last five games. Washington State is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They struggle with turnovers, but Pepperdine is one of the worst in the nation at forcing turnovers.

The pace here should be ultra quick. Their first meeting was 76 possessions. I think this one is 74 or 75 possessions again. The defenses have been much worse in recent weeks. This is the last game for both teams and it shouldn't mean much to either team. In the long run that usually means a lot of offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee State Tigers have the fastest overall pace in the OVC. The Tigers lost 77-75 at Southern Indiana the first time around, but they were missing several key pieces in that game. Tennessee State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their last 13 games. They excel at getting to the free throw line.

Southern Indiana is at the bottom of the OVC, and they run with Lindenwood and SIU Edwardsville in recent contests. Southern Indiana allows a ton of second chance points, which is a major problem against Tennessee State's front line. 

These teams like to get out in transition to begin with, and this is their final game of the regular season. These late season regular season games between teams at .500 or lower have been good to over bettors in the long run.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are not even close to the same team that they were under Tony Bennett. The only similarity is that they play at a slow pace. Virginia used to be a great defensive team and an offense that struggled. Now, Virginia ranks second last in ACC play in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers are giving up 1.144 points per possession in league play. On the other hand, Virginia is shooting the ball well. The Cavs have scored 73 points or more in six of their last eight games.

Clemson is second behind only Duke in ACC play in offensive efficiency. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 1.173 points per possession in league play. Clemson has scored 72 points or more in six straight games. The Tigers have four players averaging 10.9 points per game. Chase Hunter has turned into an elite scorer. 

I think this game is priced more like it was the Virginia team of old, but this Virginia defense is very weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a really good under team the last few seasons. Merrimack is the top defense in the MAAC. The Warriors are allowing just 0.94 points per possession this season. Merrimack is 313th in offensive efficiency nationally. They are excellent on defense, but they struggle to get good looks on offense.

The Rider Broncs are 315th nationally in offensive efficiency. Rider is 362nd in the nation in shot selection according to Shot Quality. There are 364 teams in the country. 

Merrimack has had some extremely low scoring games on their home floor. They are last in the conference in offensive efficiency at home. They are also first in the conference in defensive efficiency at home.

Rider is 301st in tempo nationally. Merrimack is 319th nationally in tempo. This projects as a low scoring slow paced contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a very consistent team in the last few weeks. New Mexico State is slowing the game down in a big way. New Mexico State ranks as the slowest paced team in Conference USA. They are 292nd in the country in overall tempo.

New Mexico State is 335th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Aggies struggle to get good looks. On the defensive end, New Mexico State is very solid. They are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are first in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They are 9th in offensive efficiency.

New Mexico State has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish with 129 points or fewer. 

MTSU is a little bit faster than average in tempo, but they have been slowed down by good defenses and teams who are very slow in tempo. That includes the first game against New Mexico State where there were just 64 possessions and 118 points. 

MTSU's defense has been hurt most by teams who shoot it well from long range, but New Mexico State isn't typically that type of team. They are outside the top 300 in 3 point FG percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames sit half a game behind the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Conference USA standings as the two fight for first place in the league. This is a really big game for both teams. The bigger the game the slower the tempo usually is, and we should expect to see a strong effort from the defenses.

Liberty has been really good on defense this year, but they have been next level good at home on defense. The Flames are holding opponents to 0.922 points per possession in league play at home. 

Jacksonville State is significantly less efficient on offense away from home. The Gamecocks are 330th in the country in average possession length. Jacksonville State is playing very slowly on a consistent basis.

Liberty is first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. The Flames are also excellent on the defensive glass and defending without fouling.

Liberty has seen 5 of their last 6 games stay under this total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are no longer the Virginia teams from the Tony Bennett days. Virginia still play slowly, but they are now good on offense and terrible defensively. 

Virginia is 17th out of 18 teams in the ACC in defensive efficiency in ACC play. Virginia has allowed at least 1.16 points per possession in six of their last eight games. On the other side, Virginia has more than 1 point per possession on offense in nine straight games. The Cavaliers have a whopping six of the nine games where they have put up 1.199 points per possession or higher. They aren't playing fast, but their games keep going over the total.

Wake Forest has trended down in a big way on defense of late as well. They have allowed 1.1018 points per possession or more in seven straight games. In six straight games, Wake Forest's offense has put up 1.04 points per possession or more. 

I'll fade the defenses here. The over is 10-0 in Virginia's last 10 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are excellent defensively, but their road games have been where the defense has excelled the most. Appalachian State has slowed the game down more on the road, and they are allowing just 0.952 points per possession in the conference.

Appalachian State has played 10 straight road games that have stayed under this total. In fact, five of their last seven games on the road have finished with 124 points or less. 

Georgia Southern has struggled defensively partially because of their inability to grab defensive boards. Appalachian State is last in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia Southern relies heavily on 3 point shooting. Appalachian State is fifth in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

These teams played recently and it went over because of overtime. It was 136 points total in regulation. I think this one stays mid 130's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have had the best defense in the NBA in the last ten games. The Nets also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this total. 

The Washington Wizards are 24th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. They are second to last in the last three games. 

The Nets are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

The last meeting between these two was 221 points, but Shot Quality's advanced data suggests the final total should have been 198 based on the quality of shots taken.

All three refs in these game have edged toward the under in their careers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* SE Missouri State has really come on throughout the season. This team is now first in the OVC in the standings. They are 1st in the conference in offensive efficiency. SE Missouri State has been torching the nets of late, especially on their home floor. SE Missouri State has scored at least 83 points in each of their last four games at home. 

Lindenwood is first in the OVC in average possession length, so they are playing very quick. The Lions are poor defensively, and they foul a lot. Lindenwood has played three of their last four games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. 

The first game between these two was played to 72 possessions and the teams shot the ball poorly and still got to 140 points. I think the pace will be quick here and it will get past the total this time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers aren't even close to the same team they were the last few years under Coach Bennett. With Ron Sanchez running the show, Virginia is still a slow paced team, but they are far better on offense than defense. 

Virginia is 7th in the ACC in offensive efficiency. They were just 262nd in effective field goal percentage offense last year, but they are 93rd this season.

Virginia is 15th in the ACC in defensive efficiency. Their defense is now a clear weakness. 

North Carolina is first in the ACC in tempo. The Tar Heels defense has trended downward through the season. They have been giving up a lot of open looks, and they don't force many turnovers at all.

The over is 9-0 in Virginia's last 9 games. The over is 3-0 in UNC's last 3 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies aren't even close to the same team they were earlier in the season. Landon Glasper was the best player on the team and a scorer and playmaker. He was suspended and then entered the transfer portal. Ryan Forrest was the leading scorer at 19 points per game and he was suspended as well.

North Carolina A&T has played five games since both of those key players have been out. The final totals have been: 129, 128, 119, 128, and 103 points. 

Stony Brook games have been pretty high scoring of late, but it has been because the opposition is scoring a lot. I'm not convinced North Carolina A&T can put up that big number. 

North Carolina A&T's defensive numbers have actually improved a lot in recent weeks. The team has slowed down their pace drastically as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are first in the Conference USA standings. Jacksonville State is the slowest paced team in the conference in terms of average possession length, so they are looking to slow things down. The Gamecocks are excellent both on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. Those are two big keys when taking a lower under.

New Mexico State has had major problems scoring of late. The Aggies have scored 63 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. They scored only 59 at home against Jacksonville State in the first meeting between these teams. Peter Filipovity is questionable to play here and if he plays he will be less than 100%. He is one of their best players and he has had a severe illness where he has missed a lot of time and is out of shape now.

New Mexico State is 9th out of 10 teams in the conference in overall pace. New Mexico State is 10th in the conference in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have played five games since they suspended their two star scorers Landon Glasper and Ryan Forrest. They haven't scored more than 63 points in a game during this five game span. That includes a 66-62 loss at Campbell a couple weeks ago.

NC A&T has understandably decided to slow the pace down a lot in their last few games. They are no longer getting out in transition and trying to score quickly. The Aggies defense has actually improved quite a bit without Glasper and Forrest, and they have been competitive overall.

Campbell is first in the CAA in defensive efficiency. The Fighting Camels have allowed 62 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games in regulation. 

I don't trust NC A&T to score much here. I also think the tempo projections across the board for this game are too fast. The last matchup was just 62 possessions and that was with some late fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both USF and UTSA like to push the pace. They are 35th and 53rd in the country in average possession length. They aren't going to be shy about getting out in transition when matched up against each other.

USF is dead last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage. UTSA is second to last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage. USF commits the third most fouls in the AAC. UTSA has committed the most fouls of any team in the league. 

Primo Spears lives at the line and shoots 86.4% from the FT line for UTSA. UTSA is first in the nation in transition points off steals. 

USF gets into the paint a lot, and the UTSA defense lacks the shot blockers needed to slow them down.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are last in the Southern Conference in tempo. UNC Greensboro is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. East Tennessee State is 282nd in the country in tempo, so they prefer a slow pace as well. The first meeting between these two was played to an extremely slow tempo of 56 possessions. The offenses were very efficient in that game, and it still finished at only 135 points.

These are two of the top three defenses in the Southern Conference. UNC Greensboro has held five of their last ten opponents to 57 points or fewer. East Tennessee State's defense has been much better at home, and they are looking for revenge from their loss in the first game.

Five straight meetings between these two teams have finished with 135 points or fewer. I like the slow pace to keep this one under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers aren't even close to the same team they were the last few years under Coach Bennett. With Ron Sanchez running the show, Virginia is still a slow paced team, but they are far better on offense than defense.

Virginia is 6th in offensive efficiency in the ACC. They are 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency. Virginia ranks 17th in the ACC in shot selection allowed. 

Duke is an elite team all around. The Blue Devils are third in offensive efficiency nationally. They are fourth nationally in defensive efficiency. Duke has scored at least 78 points in 10 of their last 14 games. They have scored 83 points or more in 6 of their last 10 games. 

Virginia has put up 73 points or more in five straight games. I don't think the Cavs will score that many here, but I do think their one strength plays into the one relative weakness of the Duke defense. Duke has given up too many open looks from 3 overall. They are 325th in open 3 rate allowed. Virginia is shooting 37.7% from 3 point range on the season (27th nationally). 

Virginia is no longer a good defense. Duke should put up a big number here and Virginia should do enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays travel to Madison Square Garden to take on St. John's on Sunday afternoon. Creighton is coming off a loss at home to UConn. St. John's is coming off a loss at Villanova.

St. John's has a one game lead on Creighton in the Big East standings. This is a late season game that means a whole lot to both teams.

The first time these two teams met it was 57-56 Creighton at home. 

Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. The Blue Jays are first in the Big East at defensive rebounding as well. St. John's is just 234th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Storm rely heavily on getting second chance points,  but those are often very tough to come by against Creighton.

St. John's is second in the nation in defensive efficiency. I have been extremely impressed by Pitino's team and their effort on the defensive end. 

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under venue in college basketball. St. John's home games played here have gone 44-24 to the under (64.7%) in the last 68.

A lot to play for and two strong defenses at Madison Square Garden. I like it to stay low scoring.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Thomas Tommies are first in the Summit League in offensive efficiency. The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks are second in the Summit League in offensive efficiency. These are the top two offenses in a league where there are tons of great offenses and very few good defenses.

The first game between these two sailed past this posted total. I expect another high scoring game here.

Omaha has shown they can score on the road. They are averaging 86.0 points per game on the road in Summit League play. St. Thomas is averaging 86.2 points per game at home in league play.

Both teams are excellent from long range, and both of these defenses allow a bunch of open looks from three. These two teams both are excellent at the line as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If I'm going to bet a high over, I want to have a team that is consistently involved in very high scoring games. Belmont is that team this year. Belmont has played in eight straight games that have finished with at least 155 points. The Bruins have seen 8 of their last 12 games finish over this high posted total.

Southern Illinois is poor at defending the 3 point line. Belmont is the type of team to make you pay for that weakness. On the other side, Belmont is the worst 2 point defense in the MVC. Southern Illinois gets into the paint a lot offensively.

The first game between these two teams was 90-86. This probably won't be quite that high, but I like it to get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The NC A&T Aggies are nothing like they were earlier in the year. Landon Glasper was their superstar playmaker and Ryan Forrest averaged 19 points per game as well. Without those two, NC A&T has yet to score more than 63 points in a game. They have slowed down the games, and their defense has improved in recent games too.

Charleston just beat NC A&T 66-63 a couple games ago. There has been an adjustment to the totals for NC A&T, but it still isn't enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers look a lot different this year. They are still a very slow paced team, but they are no longer good at defense. They are 14th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. They are allowing 1.123 points per possession in league play. 

Virginia was outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage offense last year, but they have jumped all the way into the top 100 this year. The Cavs are far worse on defense and far better on offense this season.

Virginia Tech is 15th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. The Hokies have no shot blockers, and they force very few turnovers. 

Virginia Tech offensively has been pretty solid. The Hokies average 1.10 points per possession on offense.

Virginia has played seven straight games over this number. Virginia Tech has played 12 straight games over this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are much weaker on offense this year than they have been in recent seasons. Vermont is 331st nationally in offensive efficiency. The Catamounts are still very good defensively though. Vermont is good at defending ball screens, and Maine is reliant on setting a lot of those on offense. 

Maine was held to 49 points when these two met just two weeks ago. Vermont should give the Maine offense a lot of trouble again. Maine has shot 39.5% from 3 point range in the conference, but I expect that number to regress downward the rest of the way.

Maine played a lot of zone on Vermont in the first game, and Vermont was only able to score 55 points. Vermont lacks consistent outside shooting, and I like Maine's ability to slow them down again here.

The first game was played to an extremely slow 59 possessions. This should be around 60 possessions again. The defenses have the upper hand too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone press is very hard to prepare for, and I really like the job Joe Gallo does with this team. Merrimack is first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. Merrimack has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish with 131 total points or fewer. 

Manhattan plays at an average tempo. The Jaspers have typically allowed the opponent to control the pace. Merrimack is 309th in overall tempo, and I think they can slow the pace down as they did in the first meeting between these tw teams.

Manhattan isn't a good defense, but they do a good job not fouling. The Jaspers have been taken advantage of by good offensive rebounding teams, but Merrimack is 357th in offensive rebounding. 

Merrimack is 305th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Warriors are prone to low scoring tight contests thanks to their strong defensive and poor offense.

The total has bumped upward some in the market, and I like it to stay under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames beat New Mexico State 68-60 in mid January. There was quite a bit of fouling late in that game to get it to the upper 120's. 

Liberty started the season not playing quite as well on the defensive end as they have in some past seasons, but the Flames have been great defensively of late. Liberty is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. 

New Mexico State is second in Conference UA in defensive efficiency. On the other hand, New Mexico State is tenth (last) in the conference in effective field goal percentage offense. They struggle to get open looks. Liberty is great on the defensive boards, and they don't foul very often.

Six of New Mexico State's last seven games have finished with 128 points or fewer. Liberty has seen three straight games stay under this posted total as well.

The pace should be slow here, and barring some really hot outside shooting, I like this one to be a low scoring battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met it stayed well under the total at 60-58. The pace of the game was just 59 possessions. These two teams have a history in recent meetings of slowing the pace down and playing the game completely in the halfcourt.

UC Davis is excellent defensively, but they have one main flaw on defense. UC Davis fouls too much and puts the opposition at the line a lot. UC Riverside is a team that doesn't take advantage of that flaw though. UC Riverside is dead last in the Big West in free throw attempts/possessions. UC Davis does a great job contesting shots and UC Riverside will have a hard time here getting good looks.

UC Davis is very poor offensively. They have poor spacing and they aren't a good passing team. UC Davis is 333rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies are a really bad team, especially without star Landon Glasper. Glasper was suspended indefinitely and announced a few days ago he has entered the transfer portal. Ryan Forrest is also suspended indefinitely from the NC A&T team. Forrest averages 19.1 points per game and Glasper averages 18.5 points per game. 

In the three games they have played without Forrest and Glasper, the Aggies have scored 59, 63, and 62 points. Glasper is the guy that runs the offense and they really badly miss him. 

Elon is the much better team here, and the Phoenix like to play very slowly. Elon is 338th in the country in average possession length. They will be looking to use the clock with the lead late in this game. 

I think the market adjustment to Elon's offense has been too small.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Youngstown State Penguins have played quicker as the year has gone on, and they have improved on the offensive end. Youngstown State has had five straight games finish with 159 points or more. The Penguins lost the first meeting with Fort Wayne 90-81 and that game was played to a blistering pace of 80 possessions.

Fort Wayne has been the most consistent offense in the Horizon League this season. Fort Wayne has scored 87 points or more in six of their last ten games. Fort Wayne shoots the ball very well from 3 point range and in the midrange, and Youngstown State's defense is weak in those areas. Fort Wayne is also great at forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Youngstown State is a terrible transition defense.

Youngstown State is good on the offensive glass. The Penguins should get some second chance opportunities here. 

The last three meetings between these two teams have had 178, 160, and 171 total points. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots are #2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. George Mason's defense has traveled in a big way this year. George Mason has been far better on defense on the road than at home. George Mason is allowing just 0.855 points per possession in Atlantic 10 road games. 

George Mason has seen 9 of their last 12 games stay at 124 points or lower in regulation. The Patriots are 322nd in the nation in tempo. Offensively, George Mason relies too much on free throws to score. They are 15th in FTA/FGA, but St. Louis is 15th in the nation at defending without fouling. 

St. Louis is a very solid 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have done a great job protecting the paint, and George Mason looks to get into the paint as often as possible on offense. On offense, St. Louis has been turning it over far too much and wasting scoring chances.

This should be a hard fought game and I like it to stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been as dominant this year as it has been in past seasons, but Kansas City still has more upside than many believe on that side of the football. Patrick Mahomes is still the top quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is capable of roasting any defense in the league when he is at his best. Travis Kelce isn't what he once was, but I expect him to have a big game in a one game sample like this. The Chiefs also have a very good offensive line. Both Pacheco and Hunt are more than capable out of the backfield too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a blueprint for success with the running game here. The Buffalo Bills were highly successful running the ball on the Chiefs last time out. The Eagles have a superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is healthier than he has been in quite a while. The Eagles have good wideouts and an excellent tight end.

This game is played on a fast track in the dome in New Orleans. NFL playoff games played in a dome are 37-18 (67.3% overs) since 2004. When the total is below 50, the dome game playoff overs are 25-11.

These two put on a high scoring Super Bowl a couple years ago. I don't think this one will be that high scoring, but I do like it to go over this much lower posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams with major defensive weaknesses. The Big Sky is known for terrible defense, and these two are 7th and 9th out of 10 in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

Weber State is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league. Idaho State is the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Weber State 

Both of these teams have seen 7 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. In the Big Sky, this is a pretty low posted total.

Idaho State has allowed 70 points or more in six straight games. They have allowed 75.6 points per game in their last five games. 

Weber State is first in the league in FTA/FGA and Idaho State fouls more than the average team. 

Both teams have sped up their pace a bit in league play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are the fastest paced team in the MAAC. Sacred Heart wants to get out in transition and get up a lot of shots from 3 point range. Sacred Heart is up against a Fairfield team that is 361st in 3 point field goal percentage defense (out of 364 teams in the country). Sacred Heart has been excellent offensively away from home, and Fairfield is one of the worst defenses in the country.

Fairfield has played a bit quicker of late, and I think Sacred Heart can force the pace in this game. The Sacred Heart defense is a bottom 50 unit in the country as well. Fairfield's offense has been inconsistent, but this is one of the worst defenses they have faced. I think they can do enough here.

This is two defenses who are both bad in the halfcourt and don't force many turnovers at all.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers have seen 11 of their last 12 games finish with a total of 133 points or less. West Virginia has slowed the pace down quite dramatically in conference play. The Mountaineers are short on offensive weapons, but they are top 18 in the country in all the major defensive efficiency stats. 

West Virginia is dead last in FTA/FGA and offensive rebounding percentage, so they aren't likely to take advantage of that weakness on the Utah defense. 

Utah's offense is averaging 1.14 points per possession on their home floor, but they are averaging just 0.99 points per possession on the road. The Utes have a tough task in front of them here.

These are two smart coaches who I expect to have their teams prepared. Coach Devries has gotten amazingly consistent defense out of West Virginia all season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis are coached by Scott Nagy, who has a long history of being a very good offensive minded coach. Nagy's teams like to play quickly. Many of the teams in the Missouri Valley Conference don't like to play quickly,  but in UIC the Salukis have an opponent who will be happy to run with them.

UIC is 76th in the nation in overall tempo. The Flames have scored 78 points or more in seven straight games. They have scored 83 or more in three of their last four. UIC has been better offensively on the road, and their defense has been awful away from home. 

Southern Illinois won 89-85 at UIC in late January. That game was played to 72 possessions. I think this is another quick one that gets past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets are playing far slower than any other team in the NBA. Brooklyn's average pace of 93.5 possessions per game in their last eight games is nearly 3 full possessions slower than the second slowest paced NBA team during that span. In that time, seven of the Nets eight games have stayed under this total.

The Miami Heat are 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo. Miami is also only 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. Brooklyn is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The last four meetings between the Heat and Nets have finished with 205 points total or lower. That includes one game that finished 96-95 with an overtime. Brooklyn has scored 97 points or fewer in each of the last three meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky is a league where the defenses are very weak every year. Blindly betting overs in this league has been a very solid moneymaker through the years. Big Sky overs at 150 or lower are nearly a 7% ROI in the last 15 years.

Idaho ranks as the worst defense in the Big Sky so far this year. The Vandals are 347th out of 364 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have allowed at least 76 points in each of their last four games. 

Portland State has locked down several teams when playing at home, but their defense hasn't traveled. The Vikings are 354th in the nation in open 3 rate allowed, and Idaho has multiple guys who can shoot it well from outside.

The first game between these two stayed a little below this total, but the teams combined to go 10/50 from 3 point range. I would expect some regression toward the mean here.

Portland State runs a ton of pick and roll ball screens on offense and Idaho is bottom 40 in the country defending those. 

Idaho is shooting nearly 80% from the FT line in conference play and Portland State fouls at a higher than average rate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots have been consistently very low scoring. George Mason has seen 7 of their last 9 games finish at 124 points or lower in regulation. George Mason is second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This group can lock teams down on the defensive end.

George Mason is 319th in the country in tempo. The Patriots have been very good at playing the game at their style. 

George Washington was 264th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 121st in defensive efficiency so far this year. George Washington has gotten a bit worse on offense, and they are playing a much slower tempo than they did a year ago.

The first meeting between these two went into double overtime, but it was just 61-61 at the end of regulation.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. John's Red Storm are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Last year, St. John's was 18th in offensive efficiency and 57th in defensive efficiency. This year, St. John's is 70th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and a stunning 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

St. John's has the 7th highest blocked shots rate in the country. The Red Storm have held five straight opponents to 66 points or fewer in regulation. 

Marquette is an impressive 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Shaka Smart's team is underrated on this end of the floor. I think they can mix in some zones here to bother the St. John's offense.

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. It's a tremendous under venue in general, and the last 67 St. John's games at MSG are 43-24 to the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone pressure defense is very tough to handle, especially without some experience against it in the near past. Rider is about to have a tough task on Sunday.

Rider ranks 360th out of 364 teams in the country in shot selection. Rider is 312th in the country in tempo as well, so they are looking to slow things down on offense.

Merrimack is 320th in the nation in tempo. The Warriors are 280th in offensive efficiency. Merrimack is 318th in the country in shot selection. The Warriors get virtually no second chances and they struggle to get to the free throw line.

Rider will likely have to rely on second chance points here, but they are only 215th in second chance conversion percentage.

This should be a sloppy game where both teams move very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Cal State Bakersfield is dead last in the nation in free throws attempts allowed per 100 trips up the court. They are second last in the nation in FTA/FGA on the defensive end. They are fouling machines. Cal State Northridge is 102nd in FTA/FGA on offense. They are going to get to the line a lot here.

Cal State Northridge is 359th in FTA/FGA on defense. Cal State Bakersfield is 71st in the country in FTA/FGA. The Roadrunners should get to the line a bunch as well. 

Cal State Northridge is 10th in the nation in tempo. They are going to push the pace. Northridge is excellent on the offensive glass too. 

The first meeting between these two was 184 points with 68 free throw attempts. It isn't likely to be that high again, but I like it to be higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Beacons have been struggling badly on defense of late. They have allowed 78 points or more in four straight games. Illinois State ranks third in offensive efficiency in the MVC. The RedBirds have a lot of shooters from long range and from the free throw line. I don't think Valpo can hold them down in this one.

Illinois State is 234th in the nation in defensive efficiency and only 9th in the MVC. The Beacons of Valpo should get plenty of good looks here too.

Illinois State has scored 81 points or more in four of their last eight games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The pace of this game should be extremely slow. The two teams are capable of getting hot, and if they catch fire the game could go over. However, I think the total here is a few points too high. It's a key game for both teams. In crucial games, we often see the teams slow things down even more than normal.

Liberty is 296th in average possession length. Jacksonville State is 333rd out of 364 in the country. This game should be played completely in the halfcourt.

Liberty's defensive numbers are better than their offensive numbers. The Flames are great at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive boards. 

Both meetings between these two last year went under and were played to a pace of 61 possessions and 60 possessions (extremely slow).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Mason have been the best team in the Atlantic 10 thus far. George Mason is doing it with some tremendous defense. They are third in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

George Mason struggles at times on offense. They are too reliant on offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line. Davidson is 35th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also in the top 100 at defending without fouling.

Davidson rarely gets to the line. They have played at a relatively slow tempo overall, but they have recently played some of the fastest paced teams in the conference. I think that has inflated this total a bit.

George Mason is 318th in the nation in tempo. They have slowed things down even more in A10 play. George Mason is taking a little more than 20 seconds per possession on offense on an average possession in league play.

Last year these two met and it was 112 total points. Earlier this year they met and it was 126 points total. 

George Mason has seen 6 of their 8 games in conference be at 122 points or fewer in regulation. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are the best defense in the Big West, and it isn't even close. Russell Turner's group is elite on defense every single year. This is the best defense he has had in quite some time.

UC Davis is 337th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The only thing UC Davis consistently does to score is get to the free throw line. UC Irvine is third in the country in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. They don't foul much at all.

UC Davis is 87th in defensive efficiency. UC Irvine is just 190th in offensive efficiency. Both defenses have a clear advantage over the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a clear favorite here, and they are the much better team. Merrimack's Joe Gallo has this team play a very unique zone press which backs into a matchup zone that is very tough to get open looks against. Merrimack has seen 7 of their 9 games in the MAAC stay under this total. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 335th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are quite a bit better on defense. They commit the fewest fouls of any team in the MAAC. They are also good at defending the 3 point line.

Merrimack's is bottom 10 in the country in free throws attempted. Mt. St. Mary's is well below average in FT attempts as well.

I like Merrimack to control the tempo here (they are 310th in tempo). Their defense is the best unit in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games under this posted total. UC Davis is excellent in halfcourt defense and they force loads of turnovers. The Aggies one weakness is fouling too much, but UC Riverside is 314th in FTA/FGA so they aren't likely to take advantage of that weakness as well as some other teams. 

UC Riverside has been very fortunate on offense of late. They are 354th in the country in shot selection. UC Riverside was only able to put up 67 and 63 points in their two games against UC Davis last year. The UC Davis defense is better this season.

UC Davis is very weak on the offensive end. They are 340th out of 364 nationally in offensive efficiency. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for overs and poor defense. There are a lot of bad defenses in this league again this season. In Big Sky play, the worst defense has been Weber State.

Weber State is 351st in the nation in 3 point defense so far this season. That's a problem since Idaho is 3rd in open 3 rate in the country. Idaho takes a lot of 3 pointers, and they should get loads good looks here. 

Idaho is 342nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, so they are terrible defensively too. Idaho fouls the second most of any team in the Big Sky. Weber State is first in league play in FTA/FGA on offense, and they should get to the line quite a bit in this one.

Weber State has allowed 80 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

The offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are slowest in the OVC in average possession length. They are stalling on offense and winning with their defense. Morehead State is first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Offensively, Morehead State is very reliant on getting to the charity stripe. Tennessee Tech isn't great defensively, but they are 5th best in the nation at defending without fouling. Morehead State is 295th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense.

Morehead State has played 11 games in the OVC. They have only gone over this total twice. Morehead State is the better team and I trust them to get their tempo in this game.

Tennessee Tech could put up only 55 points on Morehead State earlier this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes have been as good of an over team as there has been in college basketball this year. They rank second in the country in tempo. South Dakota is 357th in defensive efficiency, so their opponents are torching the nets. On the other side, South Dakota is 36th in the country in shot selection. South Dakota has scored 89 points or more in five of home games against Division I opponents. They are no stranger to extremely high scoring games.

Nebraska Omaha has been a big surprise in the Summit League this year. No one expected this offense to be so exciting. Omaha is shooting 44.7% from 3 point range in the conference. S Dakota is the worst 3 point defense in the conference. Omaha should get a lot of easy looks. The Omaha defense has been much worse on the road than at home.

It's a high total, but I think this game gets very high scoring. Both teams foul a bunch and both teams are great at getting to the line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have scored 59 points or fewer in regulation in four of their last five games. Richmond has slowed their pace down by 1.5 seconds per possession on average in league play. The Spiders know they don't have enough offensive firepower to consistently have a chance in higher scoring games. 

George Washington has drastically improved their defense from a year ago. The Revolutionaries are top 75 in defending without fouling and Richmond has struggled badly to score when they can't get to the line. George Washington is also top 20 in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

The first game between these two was 66-61. This is likely a bit higher, but I like it to stay relatively low scoring.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 14th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. App State is second in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. The Mountaineeers have allowed 58 points or fewer in three of their last four games. They have allowed 66 points or fewer in seven straight games. I'm impressed by the consistency of this defense.

App State does a great job controlling the pace. The Mountaineers are 345th in the country in tempo on offense. They have been the second slowest paced team in Sun Belt play.

The slowest paced team in Sun Belt play has been Old Dominion. The Monarchs have substantially slowed their pace down in the last few weeks. 

Old Dominion and App State just played on January 16 and the game was played to a pace of j57 possessions. It finished at 105 total points. 

Seven straight App State opponents have averaged less than 1 point per possession. Another slow paced contest here.

I think this one is off by several points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls defense looked much improved in the non-conference schedule, but it has fallen apart in AAC action. Rice is second worst in the AAC in defensive efficiency in league play. Rice has given up 1.14 points per play in league games. Rice has allowed at least 73 points in five straight games. Their opponents have scored 81 points or more in three of their last five games. 

The USF Bulls have struggled with defensive rebounding. They also foul far too much. Rice is 8th in FTA/FGA in the country, and they should get to the line a lot here. USF is 52nd in average possession length, so they are pushing the pace. 

A strong system is backing this one. It is a system where both teams are coming off multiple games in a row of subpar shooting. The system likes the over here, and I agree with this look.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are a completely different team with a healthy Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. They are allowing less than 1 point per possession.

The Suns are a solid 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time. 

The Suns are playing at a slightly below league average tempo of 16th. The Clippers are 21st in the NBA in tempo in the last eight games. 

The two offenses are 11th and 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. 

These two teams are going to battle for positioning in the logjam that is the NBA Pacific Division. I think this total is a few points too high considering the changes in the two teams lately.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons have been an offensive machine this year. UC San Diego is 66th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have been even more efficient when they are at home, and they host this game. UC San Diego is also 74th in the nation in FTA/FGA so they make a living at the free throw line. They shoot 75.3% from the free throw line. 

Cal State Northridge is 12th in the nation in tempo. They are first in league play in tempo. Northridge has fouled the third most of any team in the country. That should put UC San Diego on the line often in this one.

Northridge has scored 83 points or more in each of their last three games.

Both of these teams are excellent at forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone defense really bothers opponents who don't shoot the ball well from outside. Fairfield made just 1/17 from 3 point range in the first game between these two. Merrimack slowed the pace down and it finished at just 121 points.

Merrimack has won 5 of their last 6, but they haven't scored more than 69 points in any of those wins. Their formula to success is slowing it down and winning with their matchup zone. I trust them to slow this game down too.

Fairfield and Merrimack are both in the bottom 20 in the country in FTA/FGA so we shouldn't see many trips to the line here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Poly Mustangs are first in the nation in average possession length. They are playing extremely quickly. Cal Poly has been having trouble making shots of late, but they are playing the second worst defense in the Big West here. Long Beach State is 335th in the country in defensive efficiency.

Cal Poly is the only defense rated worse than Long Beach State in the conference. Long Beach State struggled to score in the non-conference, but they are first in effective field goal percentage offense in the Big West. They have consistently been putting up at least mid 70's against subpar defenses.

Cal Poly games can come with an extremely quick tempo (sometimes 75 possessions or quicker) and with two terrible defenses here I like this to get high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles have been the most consistent defense in the OVC. They are also the second slowest paced team in the conference. In conference play alone, Morehead State ranks first in shot selection allowed. SIU Edwardsville ranks second in shot selection allowed in OVC play. These are two tough defenses.

Morehead State is 320th in the nation in tempo. SIU Edwardsvile is 290th in tempo. SIU Edwardsville has had three straight games against the faster paced teams in the OVC. They go back to a defensive halfcourt opponent here.

Morehead State is excellent on the defensive glass. On offense, they take far too many low quality mid range jumpers. Morehead State has been subpar from 3 point range for the year. They have made 21 three pointers in the last two games. I think they regress from long range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have allowed 86 points or more in 6 of their last 11 games. Eastern Michigan ranks dead last in the MAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing the most wide open 3's of anyone in the league of late. 

Buffalo isn't a good team, but they play very fast and they put up a ton of shots from 3 point range. Buffalo's defense is awful as well. They have allowed 88 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games.

With both teams pushing the pace and both teams being very weak on defense, the recipe is here for a bunch of points.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 20 in the nation in 3 point defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Miami (Ohio) has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. Akron has scored 85 points or more in five straight games. This is a matchup of the #1 and #2 offenses in terms of efficiency in the MAC.

It is also a nice bonus that both of these teams play quickly. Akron is top 25 in the country in tempo and Miami is top 100. The pace here should be very quick the whole way.

Both teams like to put up a lot of shots from 3 point range. The weakness of both of these defenses is their defense of the 3 point line. I think we see a lot of open looks from deep here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston University Terriers have been extremely consistent in slowing the game down this year. Boston has played four of their last five games to a 60 possession pace or slow. That is about as slow as you see. Boston is top ten in the country in defensive rebounding, and they are very good at defending without fouling as well. Those are huge keys for me when I'm looking for an under and the posted total is set at a low number.

Bucknell isn't a very good jump shooting team and they rely on getting to the line. I think that could be tougher to do in this game than most for the Bison. They are third in the conference in defensive efficiency. The Boston offense is 10th in the conference in offensive efficiency. 

Bucknell just played the best offense in the conference in Colgate. It's a big change here to arguably the worst offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LIU Sharks have completely changed the way they play and it has worked out very well. They slow the pace down in a big way. They are using an average of 20.8 seconds per offensive possession. That is the second slowest pace in the conference. LIU is easily the top ranked defense in the conference too. 

LIU has one clear weakness on defense- they foul too much. Fortunately for them, St. Francis PA is second to last in the country in FTA/FGA. St. Francis settles for a lot of long jumpers. 

These two played this past weekend and it was 64-51 and just 61 possessions in the game.  ShotQuality believes that game should have finished with just 116 points, so it was legitimately very low.

In fact, Shot Quality believes LIU's last 7 games should have all finished with 129 points or lower (most of them have in fact finished very low). 

I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Cal State Fullerton had a change of heart in the last few weeks. It might be that the season was just going poorly and they decided to change their style of play. I don't know the reason. I do know that Cal State Fullerton has changed their starting lineup and has decided to play much faster.

Fullerton had one game with a pace of over 70 possessions all season heading into January. Now, Fullerton has played 5 of their last 6 games at a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Fullerton has allowed 82 points or more four times in January. 

Cal State Bakersfield fouls at the third highest rate of any team in the country. They are sending the opposition to the line constantly. Bakersfield is second to last in the Big West in defensive efficiency.

Fullerton is 35th in FTA/FGA and they have attacked the hoop hard for many years. I suspect they will get to the line a bunch here. Fullerton fouls a lot on defense and that could be a problem against Bakersfield since they are 122nd in FTA/FGA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for their offenses and lack of strong defenses in college basketball.

Northern Colorado is the best offense in the Big Sky this year. The Bears are averaging 1.172 points per possession in conference play. They are great at finishing near the rim. 

Idaho lacks rim protectors, and the Vandals are 333rd in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho has been pretty good on offense, especially on their home floor. Idaho is 149th in offensive efficiency this year compared to just 308th last season. 

I think the pace will be quick and the offenses should have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Arkansas are 336th out of 364 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. The Austin Peay Governors are an even worse 343rd out of 364 teams in the country on offense. These are two very inefficient offenses.

These two teams are 219th and 264th in overall tempo. They prefer to slow the pace down and play in the halfcourt. Both teams are poor at getting to the free throw line. They are both below average in offensive rebounding and second chance points as well.

These two teams have played much tougher opposing offenses than defenses so far this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are the fastest paced team in the MAAC. Sacred Heart also plays some bad defense. Sacred Heart is 316th in defensive efficiency despite facing one of the 20 weakest slates of opposing offenses this season. 

Canisius is 361st out of 364 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. This team is atrocious on the defensive end. 

Canisius has started to shoot a bunch of three pointers and they are connecting at a good clip in conference play. Sacred Heart is 329th in 3 point FG% defense. 

Sacred Heart lets it fly from long range early and often too, and Canisius is 302nd in 3 point FG% defense. 

Sacred Heart won 99-82 earlier this month over Canisius. Canisius has scored 78 points or more in three of their last five games.

Sacred Heart has played some of the slow defensive teams in the MAAC lately and that has suppressed this total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are dead last in the country in tempo. Drake has been amazing at forcing all teams to play at their pace. Drake's games are 10-2 in regulation under this totals number in their last 12 games. Drake just stalled out a game against ultra fast paced Indiana State in their last game. Indiana State is 4th in the country in tempo. Drake won that game 71-53. 

Drake already beat Valparaiso 66-60 on the road earlier this year. The pace of that game was just 61 possessions. 

Valparaiso is 140th in the country in tempo. They were held to 47 points by Murray State. They were held to 63 points in regulation by Bradley. This is a team that is just 309th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Drake has shown to be elite at getting leads and then taking the air out of the basketball and slowing the game down to the extremes. I think they get a chance to do that here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are 358th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Old Dominion is a very poor jump shooting team. The Monarchs have drastically slowed down their pace of play in the last few games. Old Dominion's last four games have all been 64 possessions or slower. Old Dominion has seen all four of those games stay under this total (one even went into overtime and stayed below this number). 

James Madison is 292nd in average possession length, so they prefer to play at a slow pace. James Madison's defensive rebounding has been the best in the conference. That is important because Old Dominion is heavily reliant on offensive rebounding on the offensive end. 

James Madison has seen 3 of their last 5 games stay at 131 points or lower. 

Neither of these teams have gotten to the line very often this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early start at home for the Houston Rockets. It's a weekday early start because of the MLK Holiday on Monday. 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing some very good basketball in the last few weeks. The main reason for that has been their improved play on the defensive end. Detroit is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

Both Detroit and Houston are playing at a slightly slower pace than the NBA average in the last ten games. This total is set at a pretty high number.

Houston is 4th season to date in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have length and they have been able to bother a lot of shots. 

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass.

Early start times have trended under pretty heavily in the NBA in the last 15 years. That has been especially true of games outside of the eastern time zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Little Rock has had a couple games that were aberrations, but overall this Little Rock team has won with defense and they have kept games low scoring this year. 

Little Rock has seen 9 of their last 11 games stay under this total. Little Rock has shot blockers down low who should bother the Tennessee Tech offense quite a bit. 

Tenn Tech ranks in the bottom 40 in the country in FTA/FGA. That is important here since the large weakness of the Little Rock defense is they do put the opposition on the line too often. 

In the halfcourt sets, Tenn Tech really has no advantages over this Little Rock defense. On the other end, Little Rock has been taking way too many poor mid range jumpers and that is hurting their offensive efficiency.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State defense is locking down opponents. Morehead State ranks 68th best in the country in shot selection allowed. That's an excellent number for a team in the OVC. Morehead State is the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are second in the league at defending without fouling. Morehead State is also dead last in the OVC in average possession length, so they are slowing the game down in a big way.

Lindenwood is 346th in offensive efficiency. The Lions are shorthanded with a couple key injuries hurting their offensive output of late. Lindenwood plays relatively quickly, but they have not been good at dictating tempo against higher quality teams.

Morehead State has played four straight games to 129 points or fewer. Their Shot Quality expected scores in all 7 games in league play have been under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins are first in the ASun in defensive efficiency. Jacksonville is allowing only 0.927 points per possession in the league. They are blocking a crazy high 18% of shots taken by their opponent. Jacksonville is first in forced turnover rate in the league as well.

Jacksonville is 234th in average possession length on offense. They definitely prefer a slower tempo. Central Arkansas is 218th so they are a little on the slow side as well.

Central Arkansas is 337th out of 364 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bears have faced many of the worst defenses in the league thus far, and they still haven't been good on offense. Central Arkansas is 11th at defending without fouling.

Jacksonville sometimes fouls a bit too much on defense, but C Arkansas is outside the top 300 in getting to the line.

Take the under.