*3 Star Play Under* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like the best pitcher in the majors this year. He is in the top 1% of all pitchers in chase rate. He has allowed three runs in his last seven starts combined. Sanchez should pile up the strikeouts here. 

Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a really poor outing against the Athletics on the road, but that is a really tough park for pitchers. He should look a lot better when he is back in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses have been below average against left handed pitching this year. I think both teams will struggle to string together hits in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last seven starts. The Texas offense is below average against left handed pitching.

Boston is a top 6 offense in baseball against left handed pitching, but they are 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is still a very solid right handed starter, and I think he can get through this order pretty well.

Both of these bullpens are pretty solid. The weather is warm here and that's why this total has ticked up, but I like the pitching advantages. The wind is expected to be blowing sideways during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas has been the single most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors in the past year. Runs are suppressed here by the park in a big way.

The Cleveland offense is 24th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 26th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom isn't the pitcher he once was, but he is still definitely a good right handed starter. Degrom should be able to avoid those big innings allowed against this Guardians lineup.

Texas is 28th in wOBA at home. The Rangers are 27th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Cantillo can generate quite a few swings and misses, and this Texas lineup strikes out the second most of anyone against left handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers have woke up on the offensive end. Detroit has scored 32 runs in their last four games. This Tigers offense has a low batting average on balls in play for the year and they have finally broken out of a long slump in recent games.

The Seattle Mariners offense is in the top six in the majors in all the primary categories in the last couple weeks. Seattle has been great on the road in recent seasons. 

Miller has been really good this year, but he doesn't pitch deep into games and I do think will regress over time. Montero is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is likely to struggle here.

The weather is a big plus here too. Comerica is a park where the wind blowing out matters a lot. The weather here calls for sustained winds blowing out about 14 mph during this one. There are multiple 60% plus systems toward the over in this situation. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Antonio Spurs dropped game one to the New York Knicks. It was an ugly game on the whole. Both teams had terrible shooting numbers when wide open. The Knicks were 3/16 on shots classified as wide open shots. The Spurs were 8/21. This is far below the averages for these teams. 

The Spurs shot just 36% from the floor overall in game one. They averaged only 0.96 points per possession in the game. San Antonio is highly likely to shoot the ball better here in what is a crucial game for them after dropping game one at home. 

The Knicks ball movement is making life difficult for the Spurs defense. The Knicks couldn't capitalize on those open looks. They are likely to shoot it better from outside here as well.

There has been a three point line move in the total. I don't think that move down is justified. The open looks weren't falling in game one. That doesn't mean they won't fall going forward.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Eric Lauer is coming off a good start, but he is a really low level starting pitcher. He has a 5.95 ERA and a 6.55 FIP on the season. Lauer ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in baseball in fastball velocity. He also is in the 11th percentile in expected ERA. He is a soft tosser who gives up a lot of hard contact. Lauer has a terrible .387 wOBA allowed against this DBacks lineup.

Mike Soroka is having a good season. Soroka is a pretty good starting pitcher, but he's up against arguably the best offense in baseball. The Dodgers were silenced last night, and I think they'll get the offense back going here. 

These bullpens aren't very good and both are heavily used of late. There will be some key arms not available in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Parker Messick is an excellent young left handed starter for Cleveland. Boston has been a bottom ten offense in the majors this year. They have hit a bit better of late, but their batting average on balls in play has been very high of late and that should regress.

Sonny Gray has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.66 FIP on the season. Gray has only allowed 5 runs in his last 21 innings pitched. The Cleveland offense is one of the weakest in the majors. The Boston bullpen is top notch.

The weather here matters a bunch as well. The forecast calls for winds blowing in from right field at about 16 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. Those conditions are extremely favorable for the pitchers especially in this ballpark.

Take the under. 

AL Central Total of Month- *3 Star Play Over* Fedde will be the bulk pitcher for the White Sox. Fedde is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. He routinely has extremely low swinging strike rates. His fastball is getting crushed on a consistent basis. Fedde's walk rate is worse than the league average. He also allows a bunch of hard contact.

Melton is a quality pitcher, but he doesn't go deep into games very often. The Tigers bullpen can't be trusted.

The White Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. This young lineup is really putting things together and piling up the runs.

The Tigers haven't been hitting very well, but Fedde should give them more opportunities than most pitchers have.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a top three hitters park in the majors. Aaron Civale is a pitch to contact type pitcher. Civale is in the bottom 16% of pitchers in expected batting average. His strand rate is high and his profile screams regression toward the mean coming. 

Luis Castillo has been dreadful this year. His average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball. The Athletics lineup has hit him well in the past, and that should continue here. Castillo has a 6.41 ERA on the year. He has been really weak on the road in recent seasons, and this is a really tough test.

The A's have a top 6 or 8 offense in the majors, and the Mariners have been good offensively on the road in recent seasons.

The wind is expected to be blowing out about 14 mph in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs start Imanaga in this one, and there isn't a pitcher in baseball who is more dependent on what the weather forecast is like at his home park. Imanaga has been amazing at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, but he struggles badly with the wind blowing. The winds are expected to be blowing in around 10 mph during this one, and the temperature won't be particularly warm in Chicago either. The weather is helpful to the pitchers here. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored a grand total of 7 runs in their last five games. The Cubs have been in a terrible slump. Peter Lambert has been solid all season. He has a 3.57 ERA and a 3.30 FIP. 

The Astros offense ranks bottom five in the majors in the last couple weeks. 

Wrigley Field's weather matters a lot, and I like both starters to have success.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants have played in six straight games that have reached at least eight runs. San Francisco's pitching staff has been awful of late, and Adrian Houser has arguably been the worst starting pitcher for them this year.  He gets a turn in the rotation again here.

The Chicago White Sox have been hitting the ball really well in recent weeks. They have seen 8 of their last 10 games reach at least eight runs total. The White Sox offense ranks in the top ten in all major categories in recent weeks. 

Hudson will open here for the White Sox, but Fedde is the bulk pitcher. Fedde is a pitch to contact guy who rates very lowly in the advanced metrics. Houser is in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed.

Both bullpens are below average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cam Schlittler and Trey Yesavage are two of the best young pitchers in baseball. Schlittler ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in walk percentage and in chase percentage. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 1.82 FIP. He has allowed one run or less in seven of ten starts this season.

Yesavage pitched great down the stretch last year, and he has picked up right where he left off. Yesavage has a 1.40 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his four starts this season. He ranks in the top 10% of all of baseball in whiff percentage and top 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed.

The Blue Jays offense is bottom five in the majors in the last 30 days. The Yankees offense is a good one, but they have slumped a bit of late and are middle of the pack in the last two weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with five total runs or fewer. Boston's offense is in a terrible slump, but the pitching staff has been throwing it pretty well.

Ranger Suarez has allowed 0 runs in his last three outings combined. Suarez has great control and induces a lot of soft contact. The Royals offense is a below average offense on the whole.

Kansas City will primarily have a bullpen game here. Their bullpen is pretty fresh so that helps in this spot.

The weather here is a plus for the under. A temperature of around 60 degrees with winds blowing in at about 10 mph from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field on Monday night. A temperature around 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 13 mph with gusts up to 20 mph or so will help the hitters.

Brandon Sproat has a 5.75 ERA and a 5.73 FIP on the season. The Cubs have a top three lineup in baseball. This is likely to be a really tough test for Sproat. 

Shota Imanaga has pitched well this year, but he is very dependent on the weather conditions at home. There has been several cases already this year where the wind was blowing in and it helped him immensely. He is a fly ball guy who has struggled with home run issues at home. The Milwaukee lineup has torched him with William Contreras leading the way.

With these conditions and starters, I expect a higher scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.85 expected ERA. He had one bad start at the beginning of the year, and he has been the best pitcher in baseball since then. Skenes has 0 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last five starts. He has allowed just a .081 batting average against the Phillies lineup in his career.

Zack Wheeler is back healthy and dealing. Wheeler has allowed just one home run in his four starts so far this year. Wheeler has a 2.55 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. He has tremendous numbers against this Pirates lineup. In 129 plate appearances, the Pirates have hit .175 against him with a terrible .238 wOBA.

This has the makings of a low scoring great game thanks to two elite starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Buffalo's defense is having major problems keeping Montreal in check here. Buffalo's defense gives up too many high quality chances, and Montreal is taking full advantage. 

Montreal is a big favorite here, and Buffalo's defense has been bad on the road in the last couple months. If Montreal does have the lead, I would expect Buffalo to get very aggressive late in this one.

These two teams have a long history of high scoring games against each other. Look for another higher scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs pulled the upset in Detroit on Wednesday night. They go home now to try to win the series on Friday night. 

The games in this series have gotten a little slower as the series has rolled on. In Game 5, the game was played to a very slow pace of 88.75 possessions. The offenses were very efficient in that game and the total was only 206 points before overtime.

These potential closeout games generally slow down as the teams know how much is on the line. The defensive intensity rises as well. You never know how one specific game could be called, but on average the referees let them play more in these situations as well.

The total has been adjusted down some, but I think it should have been adjusted a little more. The highest scoring regulation total between these two was 215 points in this series. The slower pace should help quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zack Littell is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. He has thrown 36 and 1/3 innings this year. He has a brutal 6.94 ERA, but his expected ERA is 7.60 and his FIP is 8.25. He has allowed a whopping 14 home runs already this year. He only has 17 strikeouts. 

The Baltimore Orioles lineup has been inconsistent, but they have struggled with strikeouts and Littell is a guy they should be able to get some good at bats against.

The Washington offense has been very good this year. There is some impressive young talent on the Nationals roster. Shane Baz is in the bottom 22% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is prone to giving up the big inning. 

The Orioles bullpen is mediocre at best and the Nationals are a bottom three bullpen in baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers take on the Mets on Wednesday night. Citi Field has quietly been a park where the weather matters a lot, and the winds here should be a big story. 

The forecast calls for winds of 21 mph at start time with gusts of 30 mph. Those winds are expected to be blowing out toward left center field. The hitters from both teams will be helped significantly by these conditions.

Framber Valdez hasn't been on point this year, and he is rusty. The Mets offense is inconsistent, but they do have some power.

Scott is a good youngster,  but he carried high home run rates allowed through the minors. The Tigers could take advantage of this weather against him.

At this low of a number, I'll go to the high side.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics offense started the season slowly, but they are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They are hitting for power and this group is a patient bunch at the plate. 

The Orioles are 14th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Baltimore is starting to find their power of late as well.

Aaron Civale has a 2.95 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.22 this season. He's giving up much more hard contact this year, but he has been stranding a small army on base. That should regress toward the mean. Civale is in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate and hard hit rate.

Shane Baz is a really inconsistent pitcher. Baz is prone to giving up the big inning. Baz has had poor command this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* McGreevy has pitched well so far this year for the Cardinals, but there are clear signs of regression. He has a 2.97 ERA and a 6.16 expected ERA. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in baseball. He pitches to contact, and this Dodgers lineup is a stacked lineup full of left handed power hitters. 

Roki Sasaki is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in expected ERA and the bottom 18% of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, and the Cardinals offense has been good this year led by Jordan Walker's breakout season.

I think this total is set too low given the shaky starters and the strong offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin has a terrible .425 weighted on base average allowed in 87 plate appearances against this Minnesota Twins offense. The Twins are much better offensively against left handed pitching. Corbin has been a bit better so far this year, but he is in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and batting average allowed. 

Simeon Woods Richardson has an ugly .518 weighted on base average allowed against the Blue Jays lineup in 60 plate appearances. Woods Richardson is in very poor form this year too. He is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. The Blue Jays are a bit healthier than they were earlier this year.

Both of these starting pitchers are below average and are capable of giving up quite a few runs.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet in Orlando in a huge Game 6 showdown on Friday night. 

Both teams shot the ball really well in Game 5. Cade Cunningham and Paulo Banchero scored 45 points each in that one. 

The tempo has been extremely consistent at about 97 or 98 possessions in this series. Orlando absolutely wants a slower pace while Detroit would like to play a bit faster. The Magic should try to turn this into a physical halfcourt game here.

In the first five games, the average total of points per game in this series is 203.8. We're coming off a high scoring game and I believe that gives us line value here.

In closeout games the under has had a lot of value in the long run. The game tends to slow down a bit and the defenses pick up the intensity. This feels like a must win game for both teams. Orlando needs to finish this at home, and Detroit is out with a loss.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Severino has had a terrible time pitching at Sutter Park in Sacramento. Severino has a 6.15 ERA in 93 and 2/3 innings pitched at Sutter Park. He has a very high 1.537 WHIP when pitching at Sutter Park. Severino is walking 6.03 batters per nine innings so far this year. He hasn't been sharp to start the season, and only two of his six starts have been at home.

Michael Wacha appears due for regression. He carries a good ERA, but his expected ERA is in the bottom 37 percent of all pitchers in the majors. He is giving up much harder contact than he did last season.

Wacha and Severino have both been hit pretty hard by the opposing lineup. Both bullpens have been stressed some with extra innings yesterday and not many starters going deep into games before that contest.

The A's lineup is top ten in the majors against right handed pitching. The Royals lineup is 15th in the majors against right handed pitching.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are the top two offenses in baseball against left handed pitching, and it isn't very close. 

Imanaga has pitched at home in some very helpful weather conditions this year with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. He's a fly ball pitcher, and he is up against a Dodgers team with great power against lefties. The weather here is calling for winds blowing out about 12 mph at Dodger Stadium, and the power hitters get a boost in these conditions.

Wrobleski is just 22nd percentile in expected batting average and in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in strikeout rate. The Cubs should get traffic on the bases here. 

The bullpens have been worked pretty hard lately as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes had a really bad opening day start. He has allowed a grand total of three runs in four starts since that opening day dud. Skenes is still an absolute star, and he'll dominate opposing lineups more often than not. Skenes has held this Brewers lineup to a .163 batting average in a small sample size. 

Brandon Woodruff has allowed just a .190 batting average against this Pirates lineup in his career. Woodruff doesn't walk many batters at all, and he has been really consistently strong for Milwaukee.

This has the feel of a low scoring tight game the whole way. 

Pittsburgh carries a high .305 batting average on balls in play and their lineup should regress a bit in the coming weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have gotten 33 and 30 free throw attempts in the first two games. Both of the first two games were high scoring in the first half, but slowed down quite a bit in the second half.

We've seen the total here adjust upward despite the first two games finishing at 225 points and 233 points. The last two regular season games between these two teams were 230 points in regulation and 225 points. 

This is a 1-1 series and the winner of game three in these even series has won the series at a pretty high rate. There is a lot on the line here. 

The Timberwolves have done a pretty good job down low defending Jokic in this series with the combination of Gobert and Randle. 

Murray has been far less efficient in the playoffs long term on the road. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fuentes steps in for Perez here. Fuentes is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, and the bullpen for Atlanta is taxed in a huge way right now.

The Atlanta Braves rank second in the majors in weighted on base average overall. Atlanta is one of the best offenses in the majors thanks in large part to their power and the depth of their lineup. The Washington Nationals are 8th overall in that same statistic, but the Nationals are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Zack Littell is in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. Littell has allowed 7 home runs in just 19 innings pitched. The current Braves lineup has a .378 wOBA against him. The Nationals bullpen is also one of the worst in the majors.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin is way past his prime. Corbin has an expected ERA in the bottom 5% of all pitchers this year. Corbin also has a bottom 25% exit velocity allowed despite having a fastball that is much slower than the league average. 

The Angels are a top eight offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Guys like Soler, Adell, and Trout have been excellent against left handed pitching. 

Jack Kochanowicz has been better so far this year, but I still see him as a weak starting pitcher. He has one of the highest walk rates in the majors. He also doesn't induce many swings and misses.

The bullpens here are pretty weak also. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have been a tremendous over team this year. The Nationals young lineup is starting to mature and they have turned in some great performances. Abrams and Wood are crushing the baseball right now. They have some other even younger guys who are hitting the ball well also. The Nationals pitching staff and bullpen are bottom five in the majors. 

Miles Mikolas has a very high walk rate, and his strikeout rate has always been very low. Mikolas is far past his prime. He has a 11.49 ERA on the season thus far.

Robbie Ray has good numbers this year, but he has a very low .180 BABIP allowed this year and that will regress toward the mean in time. He is also past his prime.

The Nationals have seen 17 of their 21 games this year go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Taijuan Walker ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He also ranks in the bottom ten percent in whiff percentage. The Braves have scored 6 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Atlanta's lineup is deep, and they should give Walker a lot of trouble here.

Martin Perez has good numbers this year, but his batting average on  balls in play allowed is a ridiculously low .190. That should regress to the mean. Perez is way past his prime and this Phillies lineup has crushed him in the past. Bohm and Turner have led the charge against him. The team overall has a .356 wOBA against Perez.

I would expect a bunch of baserunners on the base paths in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Gil was in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA last year. He was in the bottom 2% in walk rate. Gil is at best a middle of the road pitcher.

Jack Kochanowicz was in the bottom 3% of the league in expected ERA and expected batting average last year. He was in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in average exit velocity allowed. Kochanowicz has a good ERA in three games this year, but his advanced metrics are still very poor. He walks a bunch of guys and gives up way too much hard contact.

The Yankees offense is going to be very good. They have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play in the majors. The Yankees are third in ISO against right handed pitching. The Angels have a poor bullpen as well backing up Kochanowicz. 

The Angels offense has been above average on the season thus far.

It is expected to be warm with a little bit of wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are 20th and 19th in the majors in batting average on balls in play against right handed pitching. They have both been a bit unlucky so far this season offensively.

Taj Bradley has excellent numbers in a small sample so far this year, but his overall body of work shows his inconsistency and blowup potential at any time. He is prone to big innings, and the Blue Jays lineup has a .340 weighted on base average against him. Vlad Jr. is 7/14 with a home run and a double against Bradley. 

Max Scherzer is a shell of his former self. Scherzer has a terrible .435 wOBA against this Twins lineup too. Josh Bell has 3 home runs and 2 doubles on Scherzer in 16 at bats. 

Both lineups have power and I think they can get some runners on and hit a blast in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks need this game badly. They have fallen three games behind the Celtics in the race for the two seed. They are also just half a game ahead of the Cavs in the race for the three seed in the Eastern Conference. This is the most important game of the season thus far for the Knicks.

The Celtics are playing a back to back (this is the first game of the back to back) here, and four of the Celtics five starters are questionable in this game. Boston is likely to sit at least a couple of their key pieces in this game. 

Boston and New York are both in the bottom three in the NBA in terms of tempo in the last ten games. 

The late season games between top teams playing for playoff positioning have been good to under bettors in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense is averaging only 2.8 runs per game this season. Cincinnati is winning games on the back of their pitching.

Eury Perez has drastic splits (home/away) in his career. Perez has a 2.54 career ERA at home. He has a 5.03 career ERA on the road. Perez induces a lot of swings and misses, and this Reds lineup will strike out a lot this season.

Brady Singer has given the Reds solid innings in his time with the team. The Marlins have a very high batting average on balls in play rate and I think they will regress a bit on offense in the coming weeks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams rank 19th and 25th in the majors in batting average on balls in play. They have been unlucky so far this year. The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Angels have a decent amount of pop, and they have a history of being good offensively at home in recent seasons.

Kikuchi has started the season in poor form. He is a very streaky pitcher. He has walked five batters in just 9 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. Kikuchi has allowed a pretty high .344 weighted on base average against this Braves lineup in his career.

Lopez has a long history against this Angels lineup, and he has been terrible against. In 105 plate appearances against this group, Lopez has allowed a whopping .421 wOBA. Soler has 13 hits in 22 at bats against him. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics host the Toronto Raptors in a key Eastern Conference contest. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference standings and the Raptors are sixth. The Raptors need that key sixth seed and they should be battling hard all the way in this one. 

The Celtics are the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last ten games. The Celtics have held opponents to 102 points or fewer in four of their last seven games. 

Toronto has been shooting it very well of late, but I think their offense regresses a bit soon. 

This is a late season contest between two team with a lot on the line. These types of games have trended under in the last 15 seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have slowed their pace down quite a bit in the last few seasons. Offensively, they are all the way down to #336 out of 365 in the nation in average possession length. Illinois has been happy to play at a slow pace against both Houston and Iowa. UConn is 340th in the nation in average possession length. 

The Huskies are 26th best in the country in offensive efficiency. UConn is 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. UConn is accustomed to trying to win lower scoring games.

Illinois is first in the nation at defending without fouling. The Fighting Illini put up a lot of shots from long range, but UConn is excellent at defending the three point line. Illinois is usually piling up the offensive rebounds, but UConn is a pretty good rebounding team and I think this will be a real battle.

UConn isn't a consistently efficient team on offense. I think they want to win this one with their defense and ball control. Illinois doesn't force turnovers much at all, and UConn is likely to be running the clock way down.

A slow pace and a game that I like to stay under on the neutral floor and the big stage in the Final 4.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing their home games at Sutter Park again. This is clearly a very hitter friendly park. It was second in the majors in highest park factor for runs scored last year (behind only Coors Field). 

Cristian Javier is a really inconsistent pitcher. The A's offense hasn't been good this year, but there is a lot of young talent and I expect them to get things going.

Springs is a mediocre starter for the Athletics. The Astros are good against left handed pitching. 

This game has real potential to be very high scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Ryan is a clearly above average starter who has been good starting out seasons in his career. He has great breaking stuff and is a high strikeout guy. The Royals have a lot of high strikeout batters in their lineup. Ryan has great career stats vs. this Royals lineup. 

The Twins offense is boom or bust with high strikeout guys, but quite a bit of power.

The weather here should matter with winds flipping around and blowing in pretty hard during this game with some potential rain falling as well. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather is extremely warm for this early in the season in Kansas City. An average temperature of 85 degrees with the wind blowing out here at 18 mph on average during this game. That is very helpful for run production.

Woods Richardson can't pitch deep into games very often, and the Twins bullpen is a mess. They have been used heavily, and they are one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Twins do have some power against left handed pitching. I think they can go deep some in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best defense in the NBA for the season overall. Oklahoma City has been good to under bettors in the home favorite role. The Knicks are 10-5 as an away underdog.

New York has played more than one possession slower than any other team in the last five games in the NBA. Oklahoma City is playing at a league average pace.

A big game for both teams. The Spurs are now just two games behind the Thunder for the top seed in the Western Conference. The Knicks are third in the Eastern Conference standings. 

The late season games between good teams have trended pretty strongly toward the under in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics have a fantastic young lineup. The Athletics have a lot of power and they are excellent against left handed pitching. Look for the A's to have quite a few scoring chances here, and all it takes is one deep shot with guys on base to potentially put up a big number here. 

The Blue Jays lineup is still fantastic too. The Blue Jays should put a lot of pressure on a youngster like Morales. Morales pitched poorly in Spring Training.

Both bullpens have been extremely heavily used in recent games. Some of the key guys won't pitch here.

Two top six or eight offenses here and a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Illinois is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Fighting Illini are third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Houston has struggled on the defensive boards this year, and Illinois should get a lot of second chance points here. Illinois shoots 78.4% as a team from the free throw line, and Houston has struggled to defend without fouling this year.

Houston's Kingston Flemings is the best scorer Houston has had in many years. Flemings can go get it on his own. Uzan is a streaky offensive player, but he is capable of taking over as well. Sharp can be very good from three and I think he'll get open looks here.

Illinois doesn't force turnovers. Their defense is decent, but it is certainly not elite. Houston is a good defense, but they aren't nearly as elite as they have been the last few seasons either. Houston struggled badly with the top offenses they played this year, and Illinois is the most efficient offense they have seen this season.

The concern here is the pace. It will be a slow paced game. Still, I think the efficiency numbers from both sides on offense could be higher than expected.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. 

The Celtics are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency over their last 12 games. The Celtics are 15th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during that 12 game period. The Thunder are 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during that period.

The Celtics are the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Thunder have been playing at a league average tempo of late.

The Celtics have the Knicks tied with them for the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The Thunder are only three games ahead of the Spurs in the Western Conference standings. Both teams have plenty to play for here. 

These late season games between two high level teams have stayed under the total at a high rate in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz are 23-9 to the over as a home underdog this season. The Jazz games at home as an underdog have an average margin of 11.2 points over the posted total. 

The Jazz have the fastest pace of any team in the NBA in the last five games. Utah is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA on a consistent basis. The Jazz are 12th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at home. They are 24th in the same statistic on the road. 

Toronto is fifth in the Eastern Conference standings, and the Raptors should be able to put up a big number here. They have shown the willingness to run with weaker teams this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Todd Golden coached teams are 7-0 to the over in the NCAA Tournament when priced at pick'em or as a favorite. Golden and the Gators absolutely want to push the pace in this one. They'll do their very best to not allow Iowa to turn the game into a slog like the Hawkeyes were able to do against Clemson.

Florida has a massive frontcourt advantage in this game. Florida has arguably the best frontcourt in the nation, and Iowa has no shot blockers. The Gators should do some major work in the paint with their big men in this one. Florida is 9th in the nation in near proximity offense. Iowa is 245th in near proximity defense. That should help them play from the lead here.

Iowa's offense is 20th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Hawkeyes have been able to score some fairly big numbers when they are trailing this year. Iowa does foul too much on defense, and Florida's Haugh and Condon and company should make a living at the line in this game.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Nebraska Cornhuskers meet on Saturday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. 

There have been 7 regular season and postseason games now played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. All 7 of these games have stayed under the posted total. The average margin is a whopping 14.07 points under the posted total. 

I'm certainly not saying that these games will all continue to fly under the total, but this is clearly an under venue. A very large NBA arena with a unique shooting backdrop that can change things for the shooters. All four of the Round of 64 games here went under the total, and most weren't close. 

Nebraska is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt shoots 79.4% from the free throw line and they've done a bunch of damage there this season, but Nebraska is 7th nationally in FTA/FGA allowed. The Cornhuskers are a defense first team. 

Nebraska mixes up their defenses and they have really slowed down the tempo of the opposition consistently this year. 

Neither of these teams get many offensive rebounds, and I think second chance opportunities will be rare here.

Vanderbilt is very good on offense, but Nebraska's perimeter defense are much better than the vast majority of teams Vanderbilt has faced.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm locking this one in here early- full analysis will come later.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense has been underrated all year long. Virginia is 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are second nationally in blocked shots percentage. They have been excellent at keeping teams out of the paint with their two elite shot blockers. 

According to Haslametrics, Virginia is 4th in near proximity defense. Wright State ranks in the top 35 in the country in most shots taken at near proximity. They are looking to get into the paint, and I think they'll find it very difficult to get the looks they have gotten throughout the majority of the season.

Virginia is 271st in overall tempo nationally. The Cavs do have an advantage on offense here, and I think they'll score their fair share of points. Still, Virginia has shown a willingness to let off the gas with a large lead.

The unders with a large spread in the Round of 64 have been very profitable in the last 15 or 20 years. 

A neutral floor and an early start time with an elite defense as the favorite.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 10:35 am local time. Arizona will have a nice home crowd here, but this will be a unique environment and tip time. 

Arizona's offense is talked about often, but they are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Their length and athleticism is very hard for most teams to deal with. LIU works very hard to get into the paint, but they are way overmatched by the Arizona frontcourt. Arizona should rack up the blocked shots here. LIU should be one shot and done nearly every trip too.

LIU is likely to do their best to slow the game down. The under is 4-0 in Tommy Lloyd's last 4 Round of 64 games at Arizona. 

Round of 64 Tournament contests have been strong to the under in large spread games. The angle is even stronger when it is an early start time, and this definitely qualifies.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the second game to tip off on Thursday. The early games in the NCAA Tournament have trended much stronger to the under than the later games have, and that has been the case the most in the Round of 64.

This is a neutral floor in OKC (Paycom) where the very small sample we have seen has brought games that have finished under the total.

There is a lot of three point variance in this game, so if they are lighting it up from long range this will go over. Still, there are reasons to believe the three ball might not falling at a high rate. 

Troy has struggled when forced to shoot three pointers. Look at what the South Alabama Jaguars did to them with their matchup zone. Nebraska is in the top 10 in three point defense and they force opponents to take a ton of three pointers. Troy is shooting 33% from long range this year.

Troy is 43rd nationally in three point field goal percentage defense. Nebraska always takes a lot of shots from long range.

Nebraska was a great under team all season. Fred Hoiberg's team has a defense first mentality. Troy has slowed the pace down drastically this year. They are a bottom 60 team in the country in pace of play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are playing for playoff positioning. The Lakers have jumped all the way up to third place in the Western Conference standings with their recent run, but there are only 1.5 games separating third place and sixth place in the Western Conference standings. 

The Rockets were embarrassed by their performance against the Lakers on Monday night. I think Houston shows up with a lot of intensity here. Houston is the second slowest paced team in the NBA, and the Rockets want to slow the game down.

The Rockets are 19-10 to the under as a home favorite this season. They are also 15-9 to the under coming off a loss.

Late season games between two good teams with a winning record have been good under bets in the NBA in the last 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves announced that Anthony Edwards will not play in this game due to right knee soreness. Naz Reid is a game time decision as well. Not surprisingly, Anthony Edwards is one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA. Everyone who suits up to fill in for Edwards here is a big downgrade on offense. On the other side, Edwards ranks as one of the Timberwolves worst defenders, and his backups have graded out better on defense.

Phoenix is coming off a higher scoring loss to the Celtics last night. The two teams combined to make 50 free throws in that game. Phoenix has shored up their defense quite a bit in recent weeks, and the Suns are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA in the last five games.

It's a key game for both as they come off a loss and are fighting for positioning in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday afternoon. Oklahoma City is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 10 games. Oklahoma City is just 17th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games.

Minnesota has been inconsistent of late. The Timberwolves are likely to try hard here against the top team in their division. These two teams have had a lot of spirited battles against each other.

Late season contests between two teams with a good record have trended strongly toward the under in the NBA in the last 15 years. That has even been a stronger angle when it is a divisional game. This is also a very early start time for these Western Conference teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams are among the last four teams in the tournament according to many bracketologists. This is a massive game for VCU. They are a clear favorite here, and they can't afford an ugly performance. 

St. Joe's led VCU by six with 13 minutes left in a game at VCU in the middle of the season. There was quite a bit of fouling late and the game finished with 151 points.

St. Joe's is 28th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are first in the A10 in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. That's important because VCU relies heavily on points from the free throw line. 

St. Joe's is taking a lot of long range jumpers, and they aren't efficient on those three point attempts. VCU is also excellent at defending the long range jumper.

PPG Paints Arena has trended strongly toward the under. I think this total is a touch too high with how big the game is for both and considering the venue where it is being played.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 13th in defensive efficiency. UConn is also 320th in overall tempo. They definitely prefer to slow the game down. 

Georgetown is 239th in overall tempo. The Hoyas are a solid 74th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

The two games in the regular season were 126 and 154 points. They shot lights out in the second game. The first game was played to just 59 possessions. 

Madison Square Garden hosts this game and it has been a great under venue. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats are 342nd nationally in overall tempo. Davidson is slowing the game down much more in recent weeks. They are 157th in offensive efficiency and 80th in defensive efficiency.

St. Joe's is right about middle of the pack in tempo. The Hawks are 278th in effective field goal percentage offense though, and they are 29th in effective field goal percentage defense.

They played twice this year and one was a 118 point total in a 61 possession game. The second game was 137 points.

PPG Paints Arena has proven to be a very good under arena. All four games in the A10 Tournament went under yesterday, and they weren't close either.

It's a win or go home game and I like this to be slow paced with an edge to the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats and Georgetown Hoyas will meet in the late game at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. 

Villanova is 297th in overall tempo nationally. Georgetown is 240th in overall tempo. This game should be played at a below average tempo. 

Both Villanova and Georgetown are slightly better on the defensive end than they are on offense. Villanova is very good at defending without fouling too. 

Georgetown struggled shooting the ball at Madison Square Garden last night. Villanova put up just 57 points and 0.79 points per possession in a game at MSG against St. John's earlier this year.

The under has cashed at a very high rate in games at MSG in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates take on the Creighton Blue Jays on Thursday at Madison Square Garden.

Seton Hall is a defensive minded team under Shaheen Holloway. They are 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Seton Hall is just 316th in effective field goal percentage on offense. They rely heavily on getting offensive rebounds. Creighton is 2nd in the Big East in defensive rebounding percentage though.

Creighton is 348th in FTA/FGA on offense. The Blue Jays offense very rarely gets to the line. That's important here because Seton Hall usually puts opponents on the line quite a bit. 

Madison Square Garden unders have been money in college hoops. Big East unders of 136 points or higher at MSG are 100-64 in the last 164 games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The DePaul Blue Demons and Georgetown Hoyas met twice in the regular season. The two games finished at 106 points and 131 points. Now, they meet in a win or go home game.

Importantly, this one is played at Madison Square Garden, which has been a very good under venue in college basketball. It's a massive arena with unique shooting backdrops. 

The under is 59.3% in Big East games at MSG since 2011. The under is 26-9 in Georgetown's games at MSG.

DePaul slows the pace down (298th in average possession length). The Blue Demons also are 38th in defensive efficiency nationally and 199th in offensive efficiency. 

I think this game will feature lower shooting percentages than a normal game with it being at MSG and the tempo should be relatively slow.

Take the under. 

*The number here has moved down since I selected this, but I would bet this one all the way down to 132. Thanks and good luck. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors and Siena Saints will square off for a chance to go to the NCAA Tournament. Merrimack is finally eligible to go to the NCAA Tournament. They won the NEC a couple years ago, but weren't eligible to go to the Big Dance. 

Merrimack's unique zone pressure that slows the game down and makes it so hard on the opposition to run a normal offense should make things really tough on Siena. 

Siena and Merrimack played both regular season games to an extremely slow pace. The first game was just 54 possessions. That's about as slow as any game you will ever see in today's college basketball. The second game went into overtime and still only had 63 possessions. 

This game has much more on the line than the first two. Those were 132 in regulation and 122 in regulation. 

This one is played at Boardwalk Hall, where the under has been a great bet. It's a large arena with tough shooting backdrops.

Take the under. 

(Update- This line has moved down as many of the conference tournament totals have, but I would still wager this one all the way down to 126. Thanks and good luck)

*3 Star Play Under* A very early start time after the clocks move forward tonight where we lose an hour of sleep. Early unders especially on Sunday have been good to under bettors in the NBA in general, and this is a good situational spot.

The Celtics are playing at easily the slowest pace in the NBA in the last few weeks. Boston is averaging just 92.5 possessions per game in their last eight games. Boston is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time too.

Cleveland is 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in the last eight games. 

This should have a playoff type feel too so the intensity should be up on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Thomas Tommies are so well coached. They do all the fundamental things very well. North Dakota beat the Tommies in stunning fashion in Minnesota, and I think this is a great shot for the Tommies to get revenge and move on. They are laying a big price though, and I think this total is set too high.

St. Thomas has shown the willingness to slow their pace down when they have a solid lead. They do a good job defending without fouling and rebounding on the defensive glass. 

Both North Dakota and St. Thomas are jump shot dependent teams and this game is played at Sanford Center where the under is 30-12 in the last 42 games. This is a tough shooting backdrop.

If it were a regular season game I could certainly understand the total, but it is win or go home in an under venue.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison and Nebraska Omaha Mavericks are the slowest and second slowest paced teams in the Summit League. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass and good at defending without fouling. The regular season meetings between these two went over the total, but they played slowly and the shooting was red hot in those games. It could happen again here, but this gym has been fantastic to the under.

The under is 30-12 in the last 42 Summit League Tournament games played here. It's a big arena and the shooting numbers have trended much lower here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies and Virginia Cavaliers are bitter rivals. I expect the intensity to be high in this contest. 

Virginia is a good offense, but they take a lot of shots from long range. Virginia Tech is 17th in the country in 3 point defense. They should contest those long range jumpers well.

Virginia's defense is very underrated. The Cavs have two elite shot blockers. They are better on defense than offense.

The first game was 55-55 after regulation. This total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Coyotes and Omaha Mavericks square off in the Summit League Tournament on Friday night. This league is famous for having many teams who don't play much defense. Many of the teams play pretty quickly too. 

Still, the under is a whopping 28-12 in the last 40 Summit League games played at Sanford Premier Center where this game will be played. In the 16 games with a total of 151.5 or higher, the under is 12-4 and has cashed by an average of 6.22 points in the 16 game sample size. This is a large arena where shooting percentages have been lower.

Omaha played at the slowest pace of any team in the league in conference action. These two are capable of scoring quite a few, but they are actually much less efficient on offense this year than they were last season. 

I expect the pace to be slower than normal too with this being a win or go home game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sacred Heart absolutely torched the nets in the second half against Iona yesterday. A much tougher test waits here against the Joe Gallo unique zone defense that is great against outside shooters. Sacred Heart takes a bunch of three pointers, and they will be tough shots here. Sacred Heart is 10th in the MAAC in offensive rebounding, and that is the weakness of Merrimack on the defensive boards. I don't think they can take advantage.

Merrimack is the better team and I like them to control the pace here. Merrimack is best in the MAAC in getting to the free throw line, but Sacred Heart is best in the league at defending without fouling. 

The under is 38-18 in the last 56 MAAC Tournament games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two stayed under this total. Northern Iowa is the much better team and they are a clear favorite here. Northern Iowa is elite at taking the air out of the ball when they have a lead.

This is played in a hockey arena in St. Louis and it has a very tough shooting backdrop. The under has been a very profitable bet in this tournament in the last decade.

A slow pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Spurs host the Pistons tonight in a battle of two really good teams. Late in the season in the NBA, when two good teams square off it has been strong to the under in the last 15 years. 

The Spurs are 16-9 to the under as a home favorite. The Spurs are 16-7 to the under in non conference games this season.

The Spurs rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Pistons rank seventh.

The two teams are 15th and 18th in pace in the last eight games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been very good at forcing opponents to shoot the ball from long range. They are forcing more three point jumpers than anyone else in the Summit League. 

Oral Roberts shoots it at just 29.7% from three point range in the league. The Golden Eagles lack the spot up outside shooter that most teams in this league have. 

North Dakota State is the best defense in the Summit League. North Dakota State also plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Oral Roberts is 7th out of 9 teams in tempo. The teams should play at a slow pace here in a win or go home.

The regular season meetings were 144 points and 156 points in double overtime. 

This is a neutral court that has trended heavily toward the under in recent years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 37-17 in the last 54 games played in the MAAC Tournament. Boardwalk Hall hosts this tournament and it is a large arena with tough shooting backdrops. 

Iona has slowed things down and played better defensively toward the end of the season. The Gaels pace at the end of the year looks much different than it did earlier in the season. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all. They are both good at defending without fouling as well.

Sacred Heart is a fast paced team, but they have struggled badly shooting at this venue.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two stayed under this total at least in regulation. They both clearly played to a lower total than this.

Southern Illinois had the best defense in the MVC this year. Open shots will be tough to come by for Drake. The Bulldogs have been slowing the pace down some at the end of the season.

This is played in a hockey arena in St. Louis and it has a very tough shooting backdrop. The under has been a very profitable bet in this tournament in the last decade.

A win or go home game. I like the defenses to show up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Fordham has been a fantastic under team all year. They are a bottom 10 tempo team nationally. They are also very good on the defensive glass and in defending without fouling. Fordham is 305th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Rams go through long scoring droughts on a regular basis.

LaSalle is 299th in the nation in tempo. The Explorers are a horrible 357th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They don't foul much on defense either.

The first meeting between these two was 122 points and just 61 possessions. I think this will be slow and low scoring again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Towson is 345th in overall tempo nationally. The Tigers are also 97th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have been particularly strong on defense in recent weeks. Towson has played 4 of their last 6 games to 63 possessions or slower, so tempo wise they have really dictated the pace lately too.

Stony Brook is 247th nationally in tempo, so they are slightly slower than the average team. Stony Brook is an average team, but they are definitely better on defense than offense.

The last three meetings between these two teams have finished with a combined: 102 points, 125 points, and 126 points.

These two both are good at defending without fouling. A slow pace and the advantage to the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs go to MSG to take on the Knicks in an early start on Sunday. The earliest start times have trended toward the under in the NBA in the long term. This is a 1 pm local time start and a 12 pm body clock start for the Spurs. 

Matchups between two teams in the NBA with a high win percentage late in the season is also a strong trend toward the under. 

These two teams are second and third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games as well.

The Spurs are 15-6 to the under in non-conference games this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Monmouth Hawks aren't the same team with Kavion McClain in the backcourt. McClain has only played the last six games, but this team looks completely different with the speedy guard in the backcourt. He has scored 14 points or more in all but one of his games, and he is a good passer who gets the team out in transition. Monmouth is a quicker paced team now, and their season to date stats mean less.

Elon is 313th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Phoenix are 110th in offensive efficiency though, and they have had some very high scoring contests. 

The games between these two last year were high scoring and these two are better on offense now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Francis Red Flash are second to last (364th) in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. St. Francis is the worst defense in the NEC. They have allowed 86 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. 

Central Connecticut State is the best offense in the league. They put up 98 points on St. Francis in the first meeting. Central Connecticut has put up 1.10 points per possession or better in six of their last seven games. St. Francis plays at the fastest pace of any team in the league, and they are so weak defensively that the home team should get a lot of open looks. 

St. Francis is good at scoring in transition and that has been a major weakness for the Central Connecticut defense this season. 

The best offense in the league and the worst defense in the league. Central Connecticut has also been the second worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been an under machine this season. They recently slowed VCU down to a 64 possession game that finished 63-59. I don't think this game will finish that low, but this total is high enough that I'm siding with the under again here. 

The under is 11-3 in Fordham's games as an underdog. That's important since it shows they have still been able to slow things down even when they are the perceived weaker team.

VCU is the better team, and they are likely to win this one. Fordham does two things that can make it tough on them though. Fordham is excellent at grabbing defensive rebounds and they do a good job defending without fouling. VCU is usually strong on offense in those areas.

Fordham is often a one man offense and VCU is likely to slow them down nicely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The top of the Sun Belt standings is a hot mess. There are four teams with an 11-6 record including Appalachian State. There are also three teams at 10-7 including Texas State. These games have tons of significance for two reasons. First, obviously the teams up in these spots want to win the regular season title. Second, the seeding for the conference tournament here is critically important since the Sun Belt tournament gives such a massive advantage to the top seeds. It can be next to impossible for teams with worse seedings to make a run through so many days of games.

App State is the best defense in the conference. The Mountaineers are also the slowest paced team in the Sun Belt. They are 356th out of 365 teams in the nation in tempo. They are tops in the league in defensive rebounding percentage and second in FTA/FGA allowed.

Texas State is allowing more than ten points per game fewer on their home floor than on the road. They are 249th out of 365 teams in the country in tempo, so they are relatively slow as well.

With everything on the line in this one, I would expect a strong defensive effort from both teams. I also expect a pretty slow pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SIU Edwardsville has been a really good under team this year. They are 16-10 to the under on the season. SIU Edwardsville is the much better team here, and they should control the tempo. SIU Edwardsville is 330th in the nation in overall tempo. They are also 337th in offensive efficiency.

Western Illinois is a bad defense, but SIU Edwardsville has really struggled to get open looks this year. The few times they have had a big lead (like the point spread implies they could here) they have been happy to slow the pace down later in the game.

Western Illinois wants to play slowly, and they rely on getting to the line on offense. SIU Edwardsville is above average at defending without fouling.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks have been shutting opponents down at home. In conference play, UT Martin hasn’t had a single game finish with a combined total any higher than 130 points. UT Martin is the slowest paced team overall in the league. They slow things down by mixing up the defenses and keeping their opponents guessing.

Tennessee Tech gave up 86 points to UT Martin earlier this year, but UT Martin had its hottest shooting night of the conference season in that game. UT Martin put up a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession in that game. They are 286th in the nation in offensive efficiency at less than 1.04 points per possession for the season as a whole.

UT Martin’s defense is full of shot blockers, and Tennessee Tech is a very short team that has struggled with getting their shots blocked this season. Tennessee Tech has allowed 52 and 57 points in their last two games.

I like this one to be a game played in the halfcourt.

UT Martin is 10-0 to the under at home this season.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are still in the hunt for a CAA regular season title. Charleston's huge improvement on defense is behind their surge of late. Charleston has allowed 0.96 points per possession or less in four straight games. They have allowed 0.97 points per possession or less in seven of their last nine games. 

Hampton is the second slowest paced team in the conference in terms of average possession length on offense. The Pirates are 309th in the country. They work hard to slow the pace down. Charleston has slowed down this year, and some of Charleston's slowest paced games are recently.

This is a really early tip and these have trended slightly toward the under in the long run. With the line move up, I'll go to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots have a history of bouncing back with strong defense coming off a loss. The under is 4-1 in their 5 games following a loss this year. George Mason has dropped three straight, and now they are in a battle for third place in the Atlantic 10. St. Joe's is their opponent in this one and they are tied with the Hawks at 9-5 (Dayton is 10-5 in third place right now).

St. Joe's has been much better on defense this year. The Hawks are on a good stretch defensively. They have allowed 65 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Hawks are first in the league in FTA/FGA allowed. They do not foul much at all. That's important here since George Mason is a team that relies so heavily on getting to the line on offense.

George Mason is 338th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Patriots should be able to slow the pace down here.

The first meeting between these two was 60-52 with a very slow pace of just 60 possessions.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 8th in the nation in average possession length on offense. They are really pushing the pace. Arkansas State has been playing great offensively too. They have put up 1.15 points per possession (rounded) or higher in four straight contests. Arkansas State is 13th in second chance conversion percentage so offensive rebounds are key for them. Southern Miss is 205th in giving up those second chance points.

Southern Miss has been playing quickly of late, and their offense has been rounding into form too. Southern Miss has put up at least 1.01 points per possession in six straight games. 

Southern Miss is first in the Sun Belt in FTA/FGA. They are also 11th on defense in FTA/FGA allowed. They have a lot of games that become foul fests. That includes the first game between these two teams which finishes 93-86. 

Arkansas State and Southern Miss are both strong in transition offense. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the top three defenses in the league in terms of defensive efficiency for the season overall. 

This is a play up spot for both of these teams. They know that both are playing at a level where this could be an NBA finals matchup.

The Spurs are on an 8 game win streak. The Pistons have the best record in the NBA and have won 16 of their last 20 games.

Duran can be an interesting matchup with Wembenyama. The defenses should be ready to play here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors went 26/26 from the free throw line against Siena on Friday night. Both Siena and Merrimack shot above average from the free throw line, and it still took overtime for the game to go over the posted total.

Iona played fast early in the season, but the Gaels have slowed down a lot in recent weeks. Iona is 7th in the league in tempo. They are 266th nationally in offensive efficiency. Iona beat Merrimack 61-60 in the first meeting between these two. That game was played to just 60 possessions.

Merrimack is poor on the defensive glass, but Iona doesn't get many second chances. Iona is second best in the league in defending without fouling, so Merrimack is likely to get to the line less in this game.

Merrimack's defense is 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers are 9th in the NEC in tempo. The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are 10th (out of 10 teams). These two are both playing at an extremely slow pace right now. 

Fairleigh Dickinson has played four straight games that have finished at 125 points or lower. The Knights last two games have been played at 56 and 53 possessions. That last game at 53 was one of the lowest paced games of anyone in the country all season long.

New Haven is 356th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Chargers don't get many second chances, and they are a poor shooting team.

These are the number one and number two teams in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

A very slow pace and barring some much higher shooting percentages than normal I think this stays low.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are 12-2 to the under at home this season. Those 14 games have been under the total by 10.9 points per game on average. Fordham is 358th in average possession length. They are 264th in offensive efficiency. They are 82nd in defensive efficiency. Fordham is 364th out of 365 teams in FTA/FGA. The Rams are top 50 nationally in both defensive rebounding and FTA/FGA allowed. 

Davidson is 348th in overall tempo. The Wildcats road games have gone under the total by an average of 7.3 points per game. 

With neither team getting to the line much and this slow of a pace, I'm going to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wagner Seahawks have been an over machine on the road this year. Their road games have gone over the total by an average of 12.1 points per game. St. Francis is first in the NEC in tempo. They are also awful on defense. St. Francis has allowed 1.12 points per possession or more to their opponent in six of their last seven games. They have given up 86 points or more in five of their last seven games. 

St. Francis is first in the conference in 3 point percentage on offense. Wagner is 10th in 3 point percentage defense. 

These two teams are 332nd and 357th in defensive efficiency. Both teams are good on the offensive glass in league play.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have that unique Joe Gallo zone defense that is such a tough defense to prepare for. Merrimack is 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have multiple shot blockers down low and Siena should have a tough time scoring in the paint against this zone.

Siena is 12th in the MAAC in tempo. The Saints want to play slowly. Siena has scored just 58 and 59 points against Merrimack in the last couple meetings. Those games have been played to 63 possessions (last year) and 54 possessions this year. 

Merrimack is 8-3 to the under when favored. The Warriors have allowed 50.67 points per game in their last three games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are one of the few teams in the MAAC who want to play fast. Sacred Heart is second fastest in the league in tempo. They are also second worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart is first in the MAAC in offensive efficiency on the road (1.136 points per possession). The Pioneers are giving up an insane 1.226 points per possession on the road though. 

Fairfield's Chris Casey prefers his team to play quickly. The first game between these two teams was 92-87. Fairfield just gave up 83 points last game to St. Peter's. 

Sacred Heart takes a ton of three point jumpers. Fairfield is 11th out of 13 in the league in three point defense. 

The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. SIU Edwardsville is great at protecting the paint. They have shot blockers all over the place. SIU Edwardsville blocked 8 shots against Tennessee Tech in their first meeting. 

Tennessee Tech is 210th in overall tempo. They have often played to the pace of their opponent. The Golden Eagles have had a rough time on defense in a couple games and that has skewed their defensive stats in the conference. SIU Edwardsville is 313th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

SIU Edwardsville is first in the OVC in defensive efficiency on the road in conference play. Tennessee Tech is first in defending without fouling.

The first game was just 58 possessions and 62-58. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are playing against a Tarleton State team that is expected to be shorthanded again. Dior Johnson has missed the last six games, and Cam McDowell has missed the last two games for Tarleton. Johnson scores nearly 24 points per game. McDowell is averaging 13.9 points per game. 

Tarleton has struggled badly to score without these guys in the lineup. They have slowed down their pace of play even more lately. Tarleton has scored 65 points or fewer in seven straight games. That includes their last game which went into overtime.

Tarleton gets to the line a ton, but Southern Utah is first in the conference in FTA/FGA allowed. 

I think this number is too high given the Tarleton roster being a big question mark with multiple key guys missing recently and likely at least some of them missing here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are on the bubble, and they need a win here. I expect them to try to rely on their defense. Seton Hall is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They do foul a bit too much, but DePaul is 9th in the Big East in FTA/FGA in conference play. 

DePaul is 56th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and only 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Blue Demons won at home against Seton Hall 67-60. That game scoring was propped up by late fouling too.

Seton Hall is first in the nation in blocked shots percentage. DePaul has had a bunch of shots blocked this year.

A slower pace and a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 11-2 in Fordham's 13 home games this year. Those 13 games have gone under the total by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Fordham is 359th in the nation in average possession length. They are going to control the pace and keep this one at a slow pace throughout. The Rams get very few offensive rebounds, but they are elite on the defensive glass. Fordham doesn't get to the line much at all, but they are very good at defending without fouling.

Loyola Chicago prefers to play slowly as well. The Ramblers have been relying on offensive rebounds and second chances to score, and I don't think they'll get many of those here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are expected to be without leading scorer Jake Heidbreder in this game. He is averaging 17.5 points per game and shooting 89.8% from the free throw line on the season. David Douglas is also out and he averaged more than 7 points per game. 

Wyoming's Gavin Gores is questionable with a hand injury. He's a good offensive big man for the Cowboys.

Wyoming was playing fast earlier this year,  but they have slowed down their pace drastically. The Cowboys have played four of their last eight games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The first game against Fresno was just 63-60 with 61 possessions in the game.

Fresno State is 10th in the MWC in offensive efficiency, but they are third in defensive efficiency. Now, they are expected to be without their leading scorer. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass and are good at defending the long range jumper.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stephen F. Austin has won 18 of their last 19 games. They have won 11 straight contests. Matt Braeuer has done a tremendous job in his first year coaching this team. The Lumberjacks are 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Stephen F. Austin is first in the Southland at defending without fouling. They are second in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is 83rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are third in the Southland in defensive efficiency. They have fouled too much this season, but Stephen F. Austin is bottom 50 in the nation in FTA/FGA. Corpus Christi is 323rd in effective field goal percentage offense. They take too many mid range low quality jumpers. 

The first game between these two was 129 points and that was with 63 free throws attempted. The total has moved up here, and I like it to stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers have been a tremendous over team this year (19-4-1 to the over). Denver is both excellent on offense and terrible on defense. Denver is 76th in offensive efficiency nationally, but they are 353rd in defensive efficiency.

Denver's defensive numbers have looked a bit better in their last couple games. Their opponents are 5/39 (12.8%) from three point range in those two games. I think that is likely less because Denver is playing great defense and more just Denver being fortunate that the opponents were missing good looks in those games.

Omaha has been pouring in the points of late. They have scored 84 and 98 points in their last couple games. The first meeting between these two was 84-82. Omaha isn't quite as bad on defense as Denver, but they are 291st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over.