*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are on the bubble, and they need a win here. I expect them to try to rely on their defense. Seton Hall is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They do foul a bit too much, but DePaul is 9th in the Big East in FTA/FGA in conference play. 

DePaul is 56th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and only 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Blue Demons won at home against Seton Hall 67-60. That game scoring was propped up by late fouling too.

Seton Hall is first in the nation in blocked shots percentage. DePaul has had a bunch of shots blocked this year.

A slower pace and a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 11-2 in Fordham's 13 home games this year. Those 13 games have gone under the total by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Fordham is 359th in the nation in average possession length. They are going to control the pace and keep this one at a slow pace throughout. The Rams get very few offensive rebounds, but they are elite on the defensive glass. Fordham doesn't get to the line much at all, but they are very good at defending without fouling.

Loyola Chicago prefers to play slowly as well. The Ramblers have been relying on offensive rebounds and second chances to score, and I don't think they'll get many of those here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are expected to be without leading scorer Jake Heidbreder in this game. He is averaging 17.5 points per game and shooting 89.8% from the free throw line on the season. David Douglas is also out and he averaged more than 7 points per game. 

Wyoming's Gavin Gores is questionable with a hand injury. He's a good offensive big man for the Cowboys.

Wyoming was playing fast earlier this year,  but they have slowed down their pace drastically. The Cowboys have played four of their last eight games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The first game against Fresno was just 63-60 with 61 possessions in the game.

Fresno State is 10th in the MWC in offensive efficiency, but they are third in defensive efficiency. Now, they are expected to be without their leading scorer. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass and are good at defending the long range jumper.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stephen F. Austin has won 18 of their last 19 games. They have won 11 straight contests. Matt Braeuer has done a tremendous job in his first year coaching this team. The Lumberjacks are 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Stephen F. Austin is first in the Southland at defending without fouling. They are second in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is 83rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are third in the Southland in defensive efficiency. They have fouled too much this season, but Stephen F. Austin is bottom 50 in the nation in FTA/FGA. Corpus Christi is 323rd in effective field goal percentage offense. They take too many mid range low quality jumpers. 

The first game between these two was 129 points and that was with 63 free throws attempted. The total has moved up here, and I like it to stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers have been a tremendous over team this year (19-4-1 to the over). Denver is both excellent on offense and terrible on defense. Denver is 76th in offensive efficiency nationally, but they are 353rd in defensive efficiency.

Denver's defensive numbers have looked a bit better in their last couple games. Their opponents are 5/39 (12.8%) from three point range in those two games. I think that is likely less because Denver is playing great defense and more just Denver being fortunate that the opponents were missing good looks in those games.

Omaha has been pouring in the points of late. They have scored 84 and 98 points in their last couple games. The first meeting between these two was 84-82. Omaha isn't quite as bad on defense as Denver, but they are 291st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense has been very good this year, and they have been tremendous in recent weeks. Virginia has allowed just 54.7 points per game in their last three games. 

Virginia is 300th in overall tempo. That is partially because they are mixing up defenses and even playing some zone. Opponents have had to slow down quite a bit against the Virginia defense. 

Ohio State is 221st in overall tempo. The Buckeyes have tended to play to the pace of their opponent during Jake Diebler's time as head coach in Columbus. 

Ohio State shot far under their season averages in neutral site games against West Virginia and N Carolina earlier this year. 

Bridgestone Arena hosts this game, and this is a neutral site that has in the long term trended a bit toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are 10-1 to the over at home this year. The Bonnies have been dreadful on defense this season. They are allowing 1.173 points per possession in league play. On offense, the Bonnies are averaging 80 points per game at home. They are up against a team that wants to run here. The last three games the Bonnies have played have been against slow paced teams.

Duquesne is using pressure to get out in transition and score. The Bonnies transition defense has been poor all year long. Duquesne is 202nd in effective field goal percentage defense, so they aren't very good defensively either. 

The Bonnies are allowing 77.2 points per game at home. The Dukes are allowing 79 points per game at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers host the LIU Sharks on Saturday afternoon. These two teams just played 9 days ago and the final was 60-55. 

LIU is the best defense in the conference by a wide margin. They are giving up just 55.3 points per game in their last three contests. LIU has seen 8 of their last 11 games stay under this total.

New Haven is 353rd out of 365 teams in the country in tempo. They'll do their best to slow this game down as much as possible. 

New Haven is very good on the defensive glass, so they should be able to limit LIU's offensive rebounding prowess better than most teams in this league.

Neither of these teams are very good at getting to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Baptist Lancers have been playing some tremendous defense in WAC play. Cal Baptist has allowed less than 0.99 points per possession in six of their last seven games. Not surprisingly, they have had seven straight games finish with 137 points or fewer in regulation. 

Southern Utah is a weaker defensive team which is why the total is higher here. Still, we've seen these two clash and it be lower scoring three times last year and this year. The last three meetings have seen 136, 117, and 113 points. Southern Utah has been much better on defense at home than on the road.

Cal Baptist is the better team here and they want to slow the pace down. Southern Utah is shooting a lot more long range jumpers in WAC play, and Cal Baptist is only allowing opponents to shoot 26% from 3 point range in conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars force opponents to shoot it from outside. They pack in a zone and extend it out deeper than most zone defenses. South Alabama has forced a higher percentage of opponents shots to be taken from three point range than any other team in the country. 

Southern Miss has slowed their pace down this year. The Golden Eagles on offense rely on getting to the line and shooting it from inside. Southern Miss is shooting a miserable 27.5% from three point range. That is third worst in the country. The Golden Eagles do not match up well against the South Alabama zone.

South Alabama's offense is 250th in offensive efficiency nationally. Southern Miss is 266th. These are two subpar offenses and I think the pace here will be relatively slow. 

Without much higher than average outside shooting, I like the chances of this to stay lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Marist and Merrimack meet in a MAAC battle of two really good defensive teams.

Merrimack is 29th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Joe Gallo is a defensive wizard, and this Warriors unique zone pressure look actually slows the game down and confounds opponents. Merrimack's one weakness is on the defensive glass, but Marist is 353rd out of 365 teams in the nation in second chance conversion percentage. They are a poor offensive rebounding team.

Marist is third in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Red Foxes contest shots very well. They are first in the nation in points per game allowed in their last three games (53.7 ppg allowed). Merrimack is top 15 at 58.3 points per game allowed in the last three games.

Marist is 250th in overall tempo and Merrimack is 343rd. The tempo in this game should be slow throughout.

These two teams have played three times in the past 13 months. The final totals were 121 points, 128 points, and 123 points. I expect something similar here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers are dead last in the ACC in tempo. Clemson is also first in the ACC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.956 points per possession in league play. Clemson is 11th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are only 69th in offensive efficiency nationally. 

Virginia Tech plays at an average tempo. The Hokies have tended to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not. They don't foul much at all on defense. They are a pretty good 57th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia Tech has been hurt by teams who are good on the offensive glass, but Clemson is 16th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage.

Clemson is the better team, and I like them to grab the lead and slow things down in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are a solid under team. They are 301st in average possession length on offense. They are also 357th in the nation in offensive efficiency. At the same time, they are an above average defense. They are 4th in the OVC in defensive efficiency.

Western Illinois is 323rd in the nation in average possession length. The Leathernecks are 359th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have had much lower scoring games at home than on the road. Their defense has been mediocre at home and really weak on the road.

These two have a history of slow paced lower scoring battles against each other. The first meeting this year was 57-55. I don't think this one will be that low, but I do like it to stay under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been a great under team this season. Fordham is great at defending without fouling, and they don't give up second chance points. They are 25th in FTA/FGA allowed and 34th in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. Fordham also plays at a very slow pace. They are 357th out of 365 nationally in average possession length.

St. Joe's is 22nd in FTA/FGA and Fordham almost never gets to the line. St. Joe's is an elite shot blocking team, and Fordham doesn't have good outside shooters. This St. Joe's team is only 289th in effective field goal percentage offense nationally. They are also slightly slower paced than the average team.

A slower pace with neither team getting to the line much. Both defenses are clearly better than the offenses too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are slowing the tempo down in a big way of late.  Boston is 2.5 possessions per game slower than the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. The New York Knicks are 24th in the NBA in tempo in that same time, so they prefer a slower pace as well.

The Celtics are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight contests. The Knicks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that time.

The Celtics are 13-7 to the under as home favorites this year. The Knicks are 8-3 to the under in division games this year, and the average game has gone under by 9.6 points.

A very early tip off here on Sunday in Boston. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacramento State Hornets are playing the fastest of anyone in the Big Sky conference. Mike Bibby is their first year coach, and he has this team fully committed to running all the time. 

Sacramento State has been an offensive machine at home in the conference. They have scored 83, 93, 83, 86, and 104 points in their five home games in Big Sky action. The Hornets offense has been much better in the last month. They haven't had a single game where they put up less than 1.03 points per possession in that stretch. 

Portland State has been up and down on offense this year, but the Sac State defense is pretty weak. Portland State scored 96 in a 96-69 win over Sac State a few weeks ago. 

Portland State is relatively good on defense, but they foul at a very high rate. Sacramento State is best in the conference at drawing fouls, and they are shooting 78% from the free throw line. 

Both teams are good at getting quick points off steals and scoring in transition. A fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have been the best defense in the ACC. They are allowing only opponents to score only 0.96 points per possession. They are 19th best in the nation in 3 point defense. Cal has been putting up a lot of shots from long range. The Golden Bears should find open looks from long range tougher to come by than normal on this day.

Cal has been very inconsistent on offense. They were completely shut down at home by Duke. They were also quieted by Florida State. The Cal defense is top 50 nationally.

Clemson is the slowest paced team in the ACC. Brad Brownell is a defensive minded coach, and his teams are well known for being able to slow things down.

Clemson has seen only one of their last seven games go over this total in regulation, and that game had late fouling and got to just 140 points.

Cal has played two very fast paced teams in N Carolina and GA Tech in the last two games. This game should look a lot different.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stonehill Skyhawks are 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Stonehill hasn't scored more than 65 points in any of their last seven games, and that includes a game that went into overtime. Stonehill has seen each of their last seven games stay under this relatively low posted total. That includes their first game with LIU which finished 66-63. 

LIU is easily the first ranked defense in the NEC. They are allowing just 0.96 points per possession in league play. LIU has allowed 59 points or fewer in five of their last nine games. They have allowed 63 or fewer in eight of their last nine contests.

LIU's offense is mediocre. They rely on offensive rebounds in a big way. Stonehill is 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are best in the NEC in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is second in defensive efficiency in the NEC.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are really bad on offense. Southern Indiana is 361st out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Southern Indiana has been held to 51, 60, and 46 points in three of their last four games. They take a lot of 3 point jumpers, and they aren't good from long range. UT Martin is also 7th best in the nation at defending the 3 point jumper. They are allowing the opposition to shoot only 28.6% from long range.

UT Martin is 320th in the nation in tempo. The Skyhawks are easily first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.931 points per possession in league play. 

Southern Indiana has played considerably slower in recent weeks. They are also third best in the league in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Haven Chargers are 359th in the nation in tempo. They will do their best to slow the pace down as much as possible. New Haven is 350th in the nation (out of 365 teams) in offensive efficiency. This team is a solid under team in general.

LIU has the best record in the NEC thus far this season. They are second in the conference in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.97 points per possession. Their offense is 207th nationally so they are only mediocre. LIU is very good on the offensive glass, but New Haven has been strong on the defensive boards.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen are the best team in this league. Navy is also the slowest paced team in the league. They are easily first in the Patriot League in defensive efficiency, giving up only 0.967 points per possession. 

Navy has put up some big point totals at home from time to time, but on the road their offense has been far less efficient. Their last four road games have finished regulation with the following point totals: 123, 116, 134, and 108 points. 

Lafayette is last in the league in offensive efficiency. It's hard to find a path to success for the Lafayette offense here. They'll have to be making jump shots they normally miss, and they'll be doing it against the best defense in the league. They could only get to 50 points in the first meeting between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense is the best in the Sun Belt. They are only allowing 0.97 points per possession this year. App State's defense is in top form of late. They have allowed 58, 43,63, and 44 points in their last four games. 

App State is 360th in the nation in tempo. They will work very hard to slow this game down. South Alabama is 323rd in tempo, so they prefer a slow game as well.

South Alabama packs in a zone defense and forces teams to shoot the ball from the outside. The Jaguars are second in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency behind only App State. The Jaguars will try to force App State to make 3 pointers here. App State is shooting only 31.9% from 3 point range on the season.

This projects as a slow paced game where it would take above average shooting for it to go over the total. Neither team fouls very much and that is a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Unit Play Under* The Illinois State RedBirds are first in the Missouri Valley Conference in defensive efficiency. Illinois State has been particularly strong defensively on their home floor. They are giving up only 58.8 points per game when playing at home this year. That is fourth best in the nation.

Southern Illinois is on a seven game run of scoring 68 points or fewer in regulation. The Salukis are 232nd in offensive efficiency. They aren't likely to get many second chance opportunities either. The Illinois State RedBirds are fifth best in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. 

Illinois State is 273rd in average possession length, so they'll try to slow the pace here. 

Southern Illinois is third in defensive efficiency in the MVC. They have fouled a bit too much, but Illinois State is only 9th in FTA/FGA in MVC play. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee State Tigers are first in the OVC in offensive efficiency. They are also second in pace of play in the OVC. They are pushing the tempo at every opportunity. 

Tennessee State has seen 158 points or more scored in 6 of their last 10 games. The Tigers have scored 82 points or more in six of their last ten games. I trust them to score here on a Tennessee Tech team that is 10th in the OVC in defensive efficiency. Tennessee State already put up 88 points on the road at Tenn Tech earlier this year. Tenn Tech is allowing 80 points per game on the road for the season.

The Tennessee State defense is mediocre. They have allowed 74 points or more in seven of their last ten games.

The first meeting between these two was 88-76 and there were only 20 free throws in that game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are giving up just 0.942 points per possession in conference play. John Dunne is a defensive minded coach, and the Red Foxes are veteran team that really works hard on that end of the floor. 

Niagara is 362nd out of 365 teams nationally in pace of play. The Purple Eagles get just one shot and nearly never get to the free throw line. They'll have to make the most of their opportunities, and that should be tough against Marist.

Marist is 352nd in FTA/FGA, so they almost never get to the line either. Marist's offense is very streaky.

These two played twice last year and it was 114 in regulation and then 125 in the second meeting.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars have been great at turning games into low scoring hard fought contests. SIU Edwardsville is 340th in the country in tempo. They are 324th in offensive efficiency. They are 13th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Southern Indiana is 360th out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They have actually averaged fewer points per game at home than they have on the road. They are 59th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

The first game between these two was 59-55. I think this will be higher than that one, but I think the total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers beat the Evansville Purple Aces 62-48 in Evansville earlier this year. Northern Iowa is shorthanded right now, and their offense has really been struggling. The Panthers are still excellent on defense though. They are 16th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is 25th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 90th in defending without fouling too.

Northern Iowa is great at controlling the pace of the game, and they are the second slowest paced team out of 365 teams in the nation. Evansville is slightly slower than average as well.

Evansville is 322nd in offensive efficiency. They have been held below 50 points three times in their last seven games.

Both teams are in the bottom 20 in the nation in offensive rebounding. A slow paced lower scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Long Island University Sharks sit at first place in the Northeast Conference. Why? LIU is playing some great defense. LIU is first in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

LIU has seen 6 of their last 7 games stay under this posted total. They have struggled at times with teams who get a bunch of second chances, but Central Connecticut State is 297th in offensive rebounding percentage nationally. 

Central Connecticut State is 308th in the nation in tempo. The first game between these two teams was just 59 possessions (extremely slow), but it got to 162 points thanks to crazy high offensive efficiency. 

The two teams put up 1.43 points per possession and 1.33 points per possession in that first game. That is about as high as you ever see. I expect them to come back down to earth here.

Both teams have trended lower scoring in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have been a good under team under Coach Marty Simmons. Eastern Illinois is 314th in average possession length, so they are playing very slowly. The Panthers are also 354th out of 365 teams nationally in offensive efficiency. They are solid on defense at 114th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Eastern Illinois is 10th in the OVC in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency.

UT Martin is first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing just 0.96 points per possession in league play. UT Martin has seen 5 of their last 7 games finish at 126 points or fewer. They have had only one game top 130 points in their last seven. UT Martin is 324th nationally in overall tempo. 

The first game between these two finished at 126 points, and that was with a slightly quicker pace than I think this game will be played at on Thursday night. 

The under is 5-2 in Eastern Illinois' seven home games this year with the average game going under the total by 6.1 points per game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a good under team. Northern Iowa is bottom five nationally in tempo. They are excellent at defending without fouling. They are 30th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also weak on offense. They just don't have many guys who can go get their own points. 

Southern Illinois does play at a quicker pace, but they are a very solid defensive team. Southern Illinois is 74th in defensive efficiency. They are 225th in offensive efficiency. 

Northern Iowa next to never gets to the line and they don't get second chances.

With the line move up, I have to go to the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Queens Royals have been an offensive machine at home this year. They are averaging 95.3 points per game on their home floor. Queens has scored 85 points or more in six of their last eight games. Central Arkansas has been good on defense at home, but they are allowing 82.6 points per game on the road.

Queens is first in the Atlantic Sun in offensive efficiency. Central Arkansas is second in the Atlantic Sun in offensive efficiency. 

Queens is allowing 83.5 points per game on the season as a whole. They are 311th in the country in defensive efficiency.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are 352nd in the nation in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way on offense. Fordham is also top 25 in the nation in defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds. They are 364th out of 365 teams in the country in FTA/FGA.

La Salle plays very slowly too at 329th out of 365 in tempo. The Explorers rely heavily on getting to the line and getting second chance points. I don't think that will be easy to come by against Fordham.

The pace here should be around 60 possessions. I look for a really slow grinding style.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz are averaging 123.4 points per game at home this season. That is first in the NBA. Utah is also allowing 130.0 points per game at home. No one else in the NBA is allowing more than 123.9 points per game at home. 

Utah has been without leading scorer Lauri Markannen and he is expected back for this game. Utah is first in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. All eight of those games went over this total. In fact, they have had 9 straight games played over this total.

The Clippers are 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Jazz are easily last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games.

The Jazz are 18-6 to the over at home this year. The Jazz have had two days off since their last game too. The over is 9-1 in their games with 2-3 days of rest.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons have been an under team of late. Detroit is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games. In fact, Detroit is allowing 0.991 points per possession and the second best defense in that time allowed 1.07 points per possession. 

Detroit is only 25th in offensive efficiency in their last eight games as well. The Pistons are playing at an average tempo.

The under is 14-8 in Pistons home games this year. They have the best average margin under the total of any team in the NBA in those home games.

Sacramento is in a strange road spot in an early body clock situation for them on a Sunday afternoon.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers are an excellent over team. Denver is 79th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They move the ball well and have plenty of scoring options. Denver is an ugly 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Denver is allowing 87.2 points per game on the season.

North Dakota is allowing 80 points per game. Denver is one of the best offenses they have faced. North Dakota has seen 4 of their last 6 games finish at 166 points or higher. North Dakota is shooting it well from long range in league play.

There's very little defense in this league in general, and Denver games have been consistently very high.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones played very quickly in the non-conference slate, but they have been slowing things down in Big 12 play. Iowa State is still a defensive-minded team under Coach Otzelberger. 

Oklahoma State's offense has been inconsistent in league play.

In the first meeting between these two teams, the final score was 154 points total. The teams combined to shoot 56 free throws and they made 80.4% of those (45 made). That is far above the averages of the two teams. Both defenses have been pretty good at defending without fouling too.

In Iowa State's last 11 games, they haven't had a total within 8 points of this current total. The Cyclones defense should be enough to keep this one under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers defense has been tremendous over the last few weeks. Brad Brownell has always been a defense first coach, and this team is really putting it together on that end. Clemson is first in the ACC in defensive efficiency. They are 15th nationally in defensive efficiency. Clemson is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Offensively, Clemson is a mediocre 68th in offensive efficiency.

Georgia Tech is 33rd nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 191st in effective field goal percentage offense. The Yellow Jackets turn it over a lot on offense.

Clemson hasn't had a game above 144 points in regulation in their last 11 games in a row.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 350th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are 348th in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Eastern Illinois is 321st in the nation in average possession length. They are well known for wanting to slow the pace down a lot under Coach Marty Simmons. Southern Indiana has slowed their pace down drastically in league play. They are averaging just 66 possessions per game in the league. 

Southern Indiana is playing slower than a year ago, but even last year the two meetings between these two teams finished at 124 points and 117 points. 

Eastern Illinois has seen 7 of their last 9 games stay under this total in regulation. 

Southern Indiana takes a bunch of three point jumpers, and Eastern Illinois is holding opponents below 30 percent from long range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a very good defensive team, and they absolutely know how to control the tempo. Northern Iowa is 364th out of 365 teams in the country in tempo. The Panthers are 2nd in 3 point field goal defense. They are 18th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 84th in defending without fouling.

Illinois State is 236th in overall tempo. They are first in MVC play in defensive efficiency. They are 17th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

This should be a slow paced game with very few second chances and trips to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois have two key offensive pieces questionable for this game. Quel'ron House their leading scorer at 13.7 points per game is questionable and he missed last game. Isaiah Stafford averages 7.3 points per game and he is questionable after missing several recent games too.

Valparaiso is 294th in average possession length. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line on offense. As a team they are 348th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Southern Illinois is 216th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Salukis are 72nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Valparaiso is 105th in defensive efficiency.

The first game between these two finished at 145 points. There were a ridiculous 71 free throw attempts in that game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies have been a well oiled machine on offense on their home floor. Utah State has been excellent everywhere on offense of late too. Utah State has scored 93 points or more in four of their last seven games. Utah State has 17th in effective field goal percentage offense nationally. The Aggies are so dangerous because they take great shots and they also follow up those up with second chances so often. They are 2nd nationally in second chance conversion percentage. UNLV is 282nd in second chance conversion percentage allowed.

Utah State is 91st in offense in average possession length. UNLV is 39th in that same statistic. UNLV ranks in the top ten in the country in FTA/FGA and Utah State does foul a lot on defense. The Rebels should be able to score at the stripe quite a bit here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are very strong on defense. John Dunne teams are known for their defense. Marist is 5th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. The Red Foxes are third in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. They are first in the conference in steal percentage too.

Merrimack's defense has confused a whole lot of teams for the past few seasons. Coach Gatto is an excellent coach who should be able to use that full court unique zone defense to throw off Marist a good amount. 

Merrimack's offense is inconsistent. They shoot a lot of shots from long range, and Marist is 3rd in the nation in 3 point defense. On defense, Merrimack struggles on the defensive glass, but Marist isn't very good on the offensive boards.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Long term in the NBA the earliest start times have trended toward the under. On MLK Day the trend has been even stronger toward the under in the day games. The players aren't accustomed to playing during the day on a Monday, and that tends to be helpful for slightly lower scoring.

Milwaukee's offense has been poor of late. They are 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. Atlanta is only one spot better at 26th. This is a really high total for two teams who aren't very efficient on the offensive end. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The McNeese Cowboys are first in the conference in average possession length. UT Rio Grande Valley is third. The tempo should be quick enough here for this one to get over this relatively low total.

Larry Johnson and McNeese go hard to the basket, and UT Rio Grande lacks shot blockers. McNeese should score a lot on the interior. 

UT Rio Grande Valley has some solid outside shooters.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Howard Bison are first in the MEAC in overall tempo. They like to push the pace quite a bit. NC Central is first in offensive efficiency in the MEAC.

 NC Central lives at the line and Howard is bottom 50 in the nation at defending without fouling. 

This total has been bet down a lot, and I think it has gone down too far. I see both defenses as subpar and both teams at the charity stripe a lot here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacksonville is 360th in overall tempo in the country. This is a very slow paced team. The Dolphins are good at dictating the pace as well. Jacksonville is also dead last in the A Sun in offensive efficiency and second best in the A Sun in defensive efficiency. 

North Alabama is 282nd in overall tempo. They have played some very high scoring teams in their last few games and I believe that has inflated this total a few points.

Look for this game to be played in the halfcourt and stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 363rd out of 365 teams in the nation in overall tempo. They are looking to walk it up the court whenever they can. Northern Iowa is second in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is first in the MVC in defensive rebounding percentage and third in defending without fouling.

Valparaiso relies heavily on getting to the free throw line, and Northern Iowa should be far better than many of Valpo's opponents at keeping them off the line.

The first meeting was 58-48. I do think this game will be higher than that, but this total has steamed upward more than I expected and I have to back the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast and West Georgia are both involved in some pretty high scoring games. There's no doubt that a pretty high total is deserved high. I just think this one is too high. 

West Georgia is 220th in average possession length, while Florida Gulf Coast is 151st. These two teams are about average pace. They aren't running and gunning in a big way. 

West Georgia's game against ultra high scoring N Florida stayed below this total. Florida Gulf Coast has seen their last four games all stay below this total even though they played Queens and Lipscomb in their last two.

These two teams are both in the bottom 50 in the country in FTA/FGA. They shouldn't get to the line much.

Take the under at this high number. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham are 353rd nationally in average possession length. Fordham is 15th best in the nation in defending without fouling. They are also 15th best in defensive rebounding percentage. Fordham is 248th in offensive efficiency, and they really struggle to get open looks.

Duquesne played very fast in the non-conference portion of the schedule, but they are playing more than 1.5 seconds per possession slower on offense in conference play thus far. Their issue on defense has been fouling, but Fordham is 364th out of 365 in FTA/FGA's so they shouldn't take advantage of that.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Coyotes have as many injuries as anyone in the country. They have been without four key players in each of the last three games. South Dakota has had a 7 or 8 man team. That has led to them slowing their pace down a bit. South Dakota has played an average of 1.4 seconds per possession slower in conference play than they did in non-conference play.

UMKC has typically been one of the slower paced teams in the Summit League. They are a little faster than normal this year, but they are one of the worst offenses as well. S Dakota relies heavily on getting to the free throw line. UMKC is above average at defending without fouling. 

UMKC is 342nd in offensive efficiency. South Dakota is 203rd. This is an extremely high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IU Indy Jaguars are playing just a touch slower than earlier this season, but they are still running a lot. IU Indy still has only had 3 games lower than 158 points in their last 12 games. IU Indy is 364th in effective field goal percentage defense nationally. They are 353rd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Robert Morris is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference. They should get a ton of second chance opportunities here. They are 245th in offensive turnover percentage though, and IU Indy's full court pressure should create some easy baskets for the Jaguars. 

With the line move downward, I'll back the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins were a fast paced team a few years ago, but they have dialed it back on the tempo. Furman is 228th in tempo so far this season. Furman is 8th in their conference in tempo. Furman is second in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. The Paladins are 8th best in the country in defending without fouling. They are easily first in the conference in defending without fouling. That's important since Samford relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense. 

Samford is 247th in the nation in tempo. Samford has faced the 206th toughest slate of offenses this year compared to just 326th toughest slate of defenses. Furman is similar in this regard. The Paladins have faced the 165th toughest slate of offenses and only the 329th toughest slate of defenses. 

Furman's Cooper Bowser is their most efficient offensive player. He's missed the last five games due to injury.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 364th out of 365 teams in the nation in tempo. Northern Iowa will do their absolute best to to slow the game down and play in the halfcourt. They are favored here, and have been the more consistent team. 

UIC has dropped their tempo down quite a bit this year. They are 252nd in overall tempo. The Flames are playing much slower in league play as well. They are playing about two seconds per possession slower in league play than they were in non-conference action. 

The first game between these two was 60-54 Northern Iowa. 

Northern Iowa is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. UIC relies a lot on offensive rebounds. The Flames offense is 320th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play that very unique zone defense under Joe Gallo. They use the full court pressure to actually slow the game down. It's a really tough defense to go up against unless you have elite ball handlers. 

St. Peter's was held to 37 points when these two teams played a year ago. St. Peter's is once again very slow paced. They are 338th in average possession length and 270th in overall tempo. Merrimack is down at 341st in overall tempo because their zone slows down the opposition so much.

Merrimack takes quite a few long range jumpers, and St. Peter's has defended the 3 point line well in the last three seasons under Bashir Mason.

This total has gone up, but I don't see any reason for that line move. These defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers are 338th in average possession length this season. Pacific is also up to 111th in effective field goal percentage defense, and they are 19th in the nation when it comes to defensive rebounding percentage. 

San Diego has had some faster paced games of late, but those were against the likes of Gonzaga and Santa Clara. 

These two met in late December, and it was 66-54 with a pace of just 64 possessions. I think this will be a good amount higher than that, but this total is set several points higher than it should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Lindenwood Lions are 24th nationally in average possession length. They are the fastest paced team in the OVC. Lindenwood's defensive stats have been propped up by their "free throw defense" being so good. That should regress toward the mean with time. 

Lindenwood's offense should be able to take advantage of Little Rock in two areas. First, they are very good at second chance conversions, and Little Rock is poor on the defensive boards. Second, they are good at steals and quick scores, and Little Rock turns it over and allows a lot in transition.

Little Rock is excellent in transition as well off the steals, and Lindenwood has been terrible in that area on defense. Little Rock also is very good around the hoop on offense, and Lindenwood has been poor with the near proximity defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners have played 12 games against Division One opponents this year. The highest scoring game at the end of regulation they have had is 146 points. The rest of their games have finished 143 points or lower. UTEP has slowed the pace down considerably this year. They just don't have enough scorers, and the team is 311th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Western Kentucky does run, but the Hilltoppers are 326th in effective field goal percentage offense. Unless the Hilltoppers jump out to big early lead, I think UTEP will work hard to slow the pace down here. Western Kentucky has seen 4 of their last 6 against Division One opponents stay under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens are a completely different team this year. Delaware is 361st in average possession length nationally (out of 365 teams). They were 56th last season. They have pumped the brakes in a big way. Delaware is 356th in FTA/FGA, and they are 361st in offensive rebounding percentage. Defensively, Delaware is 88th in effective field goal percentage defense.

LA Tech is 350th in overall tempo, and this game should be played to a very slow pace. The Bulldogs are 347th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 26th in blocked shots percentage on defense though, and 72nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stanford Cardinal were playing fast in the non-conference slate, but this team has really backed down their tempo in recent contests. In the non-conference their average tempo was 69.5 possessions. In conference play, it has been an average o 60.5 possessions. 

I do think this will be played faster than that with Virginia on the other side, but Virginia's defense has been solid this year. Virginia is 8th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

I think this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia State has been a poor shooting team throughout the course of the season. They erupted for 62 second half points against Coastal Carolina in their last game. Georgia State went a whopping 17/30 from 3 point range in that game. They are 29.6% from three point range on the season. I don't expect their red hot shooting to continue. 

Appalachian State is one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers are 84th in effective field goal percentage defense this season. They have struggled at times on the defensive glass, but Georgia State is poor on the offensive boards. 

Appalachian State is 355th in the nation in overall tempo. The Mountaineers have played high scoring teams in Marshall and Old Dominion in their last two games. That and the fact that Georgia State just shot so well has pushed this total up too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Connecticut State are 308th in average possession length. They are trying to slow the pace down. Stonehill is 320th in average possession length. Both teams should be walking it up the floor in this one.

Central Connecticut is 289th in the nation in shot selection. Stonehill is 346th in the nation in shot selection. Both teams are also among the bottom 40 in the nation in FTA/FGA, so we shouldn't expect to see many free throws taken here.

These two teams were similar last year and there were 134 and 108 points in their two meetings. I think this one stays under the total too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers host the Hostra Pride in a weird middle of the week early afternoon contest here. The environment could be a little crazy with cheap tickets and low drink prices set as a big promotional for this game. 

Towson and Hofstra have a history of low scoring head to head matchups. They have seen 3 of the last 4 matchups finish at 125 points or less. Two of the last four have finished with a 115 points.

Towson is 362nd in the country in overall tempo. The Tigers struggle shooting the basketball, but they are above average on the defensive end.

Hofstra takes a lot of three pointers, but Towson is one of the top three point defenses so far this season.

Hofstra is 312th in average possession length, so they are slow paced as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos are upset at the way they lost their last game in San Diego on Saturday night. Boise State fought very hard in that game though, and Leon Rice coached teams are always going to battle.

Boise State is up to 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. That's important because Grand Canyon has been good on the offensive glass, but they shouldn't get nearly as many second chance points as normal in this one.

Grand Canyon is 53rd in the country in defensive efficiency. The Antelopes are 20th in defensive rebounding percentage too.

Both teams play at a slightly slower than average tempo. Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both are outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are 35th in shot selection allowed. They are 25th in defensive efficiency. Villanova is 354th in overall tempo, so they really slow things down.

Creighton is 7th in shot selection allowed. The Blue Jays are third best in the nation at not giving up free throw attempts. 

Creighton has had four road games, and in three of them their offense was terrible. The Blue Jays don't have the shooters they have had in recent years. They are just 34.5% from 3 point range. 

Creighton is 233rd in overall tempo. This total has been bet up a bit and I disagree with that line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams were in a low scoring battle with Richmond in their last game before Richmond started just making every 3 point jumper they put up later in the game. Richmond scored 35 points in the last 10 minutes of the game. Richmond finished an astonishing 13/19 from 3 point range. 

Fordham is 350th in overall tempo. The Rams are 9th at defending without fouling. They are 15th in defensive rebounding percentage. George Mason is 4th in FTA/FGA,  but Fordham's strength has been not putting the opposition on the line. 

The strength of the Fordham offense has been offensive rebounding, but George Mason is 39th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. 

George Mason is 314th in overall tempo. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers are 360th in the country in overall tempo. West Virginia is 112th in effective field goal percentage offense and 41st in effective field goal percentage defense. West Virginia struggles on offense and relies on free throws and second chance opportunities. Cincinnati is 7th in defensive rebounding percentage, and they are 66th in FTA/FGA allowed.

Cincinnati is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are 222nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are taking a bunch of long range jumpers, and they haven't been very good at them.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a really good defensive team, and they slow the pace down to a crawl. Northern Iowa is 8th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 57th at defending without fouling. They are second nationally in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Iowa is also 363rd out of 365 teams in the country in overall tempo.

Evansville is far below average in their possession length on offense, so they prefer to play slowly. The Purple Aces are 328th in overall offensive efficiency.

Northern Iowa is the better team and I like their defense to control things here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers have had an average of 174.3 points per game scored in their last six games. None of them have finished lower than 161 points. Denver's defense is about as bad as anyone in the country. They are awful at defending the 3 point shot, and St. Thomas has multiple very good outside shooters. Denver takes good care of the basketball on offense though, and they are Carson Johnson and Zane Nelson. This team can put up a bunch of points in a hurry.

St. Thomas is coached by Johnny Tauer who is an offensive wizard. This Tommies team is top 35 in effective field goal percentage offense for the third straight season. They should torch this Denver defense. 

Both offenses should pile up the points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Fordham has been great on defense this year. They are allowing just 58.6 points per game at home. Fordham has seen 9 of their 11 games against Division One teams this year go under this posted total. The Rams are 6th in the nation at defending without fouling. They are also 19th in defensive rebounding percentage. They are a weak 257th in offensive efficiency. Fordham also is 345th out of 365 in tempo, so they are moving very slowly.

Richmond just had an epic shootout against George Washington in their last game. The game was just 66 possessions, but both teams shot lights out. It should be difficult for them to shoot as well in this one. The Spiders are just an average paced team. Richmond has faced a very easy slate of defenses this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks were 88th in average possession length last year. They are 310th this season. This UT Arlington team is winning with defense and they are slowing the game down. Their biggest weakness is putting the opposition on the line too much, but Southern Utah is one of the worst in the nation at getting to the charity stripe.

Southern Utah is 16th at defending without fouling which is important because UT Arlington relies on getting to the line a lot to score. 

There are two really bad offenses here, and UT Arlington's defense is very good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SIU Edwardsville has played in three straight OVC games that were 127 points or lower in regulation. This is a team that is far better on defense than offense. They are 323rd in offensive efficiency for the year. 

Morehead State is 316th in offensive efficiency. They take a lot of mid range jumpers that are low quality shots.

Both teams play at a slow pace. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tennessee State is pushing the pace to the extreme. They have sped up of late. The Tigers appear to be the fastest or second fastest paced team in the OVC. They are fouling at a high rate too. Their full court pressure is turning teams over at a very high rate and Little Rock gives up a lot of steals and quick scores.

Little Rock's big men Gatkek is healthy again and he should do work here against Tenn State's interior defense which just isn't very good at all. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is some risk associated with taking an under between these two teams. They play very quickly and there will be a lot of possessions in this game. I'm still going to take the under at this high of a number.

North Carolina is 2nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in shot selection allowed. The Tar Heels have length all over the floor, and they have been making opponents shots very tough.

SMU is 35th best in shot selection allowed.

This one is 6 points above my projected number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana is one of the best under teams in the country. They are 364th out of 365 teams nationally in overall tempo. They are 353rd in offensive efficiency. They have consistently played very low scoring games.

Southern Miss has taken on three very fast paced teams in their last three games and that is inflating the total a bit.

The first meeting between these two was 116 points and that was with Southern Miss shooting 39 free throws.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights know they need to slow the pace of this game down. Rutgers used up 19.1 seconds per possession (a slow pace) in their Big Ten games so far this year. They lost those games in blowouts too, so the fact that they were stalling despite the score shows they were very committed to playing slowly. Rutgers is 23rd in shot selection allowed this year.

Ohio State has typically played to the pace of their opponent under Diebler. The Buckeyes have been at the free throw line a lot this year, but Rutgers is very good at defending without fouling. Rutgers also has much better numbers on defense when playing at home.

A high total given the expected pace of this game and the Rutgers weakness on offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are a great defensive team. They also play at an extremely slow pace. Northern Iowa is 361st in tempo out of 365 teams in the country. Northern Iowa is also sixth nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They are good on the defensive glass and very good at defending without fouling. Offensively, they very rarely get second shots, and they don't get to the line much.

Indiana State has been quite a bit better on defense this year than a year ago. The Sycamores are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played about a second per possession slower than a year ago as well. On offense, they have been shooting a bunch of long range jumpers and not getting many second chances.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles defense ranks 314th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They have been terrible defending the 3 point shot, and they don't have shot blockers either. Tennessee Tech is 81st in average possession length, so they are playing fast.

Little Rock has been shooting the ball a bit better this year than they did a year ago. Little Rock and Tenn Tech met twice last year and there were 148 and 154 points in those games. 

These two teams both excel at scoring on steals and breakaway transition buckets. Both teams are poor at preventing that as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds defense has been awful on the road this year. They have allowed 85 points or more in all six road games this season. That includes allowing 93 points against a weak Hampton offense and 86 points against a subpar VMI offense.

Loyola is playing 1.2 seconds per possession quicker than they did a year ago. They are happy to push the tempo when they can this season. Loyola shoots a lot of shots from 3 point range, and American is very poor defending the 3 point shot.

American was 348th in tempo last year. They are 137th nationally in tempo this year. American is 313th in effective field goal percentage defense. They foul at a very high rate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles are 83rd in average possession length out of 365 teams in the country. They have been pushing the pace more this season. Tennessee State is up to 37th in overall tempo this year. 

Tennessee State has been using full court pressure and trapping in the half court to force a bunch of turnovers. They are 9th in the nation in potential points off breakaway steals. Tenn Tech is 239th when it comes to giving it away and allowing those scores. The Tigers should get those transition buckets here. 

Tennessee Tech has scored 80 points or more in four of their last five games. Tennessee State fouls a ton (bottom six in the nation) and Tech should do damage at the line in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kelvin Sampson's Houston teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites at home. In fact, when Houston is favored by 22 points or more, the under is 17-3 in regular season games. This one fits the system.

Middle Tennessee is 265th in overall tempo. The Blue Raiders are 275th in effective field goal percentage offense. They have played a bunch of really fast paced opponents, which I think is giving us a higher total here than we should be getting.

Houston is 351st in overall tempo. This Houston team is one of the best in the country on defense yet again too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* IU Indy is playing at the single fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Jaguars aren't particularly good in the halfcourt offensive sets, but they are great in transition. 

Cleveland State is 110th in overall tempo, and the Vikings are very good on offense in areas where IU Indy struggles on defense. Cleveland State gets to the line a bunch and IU Indy is sending the opposition to the charity stripe at a very high rate. Cleveland State is excellent from 3 point range too, and IU Indy has been awful at defending the perimeter.

Cleveland State turns it over a lot, and IU Indy is elite at stealing it and scoring in transition. I think they'll do work in that area here. Cleveland State is also dead last (365th) in second chance conversion percentage allowed, meaning they give up a bunch of quick second chance points. IU Indy is 115th nationally in that on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder are off a rare loss, and it was once again to the San Antonio Spurs on Christmas Day. The Thunder have had a couple days off to regroup, and I would expect a strong defensive effort here. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 games after a straight up loss.

The 76ers are 8-2 to the under on this posted total in their last ten games. 

Early starts especially in the Western Conference have trended pretty strongly toward the under in the long run in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are 355th in offensive efficiency nationally. They take a lot of very poor shots. This is a team that shot way above their season averages last game, and I would guess that they will cool off here. Louisiana is 361st out of 365 teams in average possession length. They are moving extremely slowly on offense. 

Norfolk State is a slower paced team too. They have been hurt by teams who grab a lot of offensive rebounds, but Louisiana has been very weak in that area. Norfolk State is 298th out of 365 in offensive efficiency. They are coming off some higher scoring games, but I think this one should be much lower against an under team in Louisiana.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is going to be a really nice rivalry in the years to come. It's SGA against Wemby. The young Thunder who have already won an NBA title and have the best record in the NBA. The Spurs who knocked them out of the NBA Cup, and they look like one of the top contenders in the Western Conference.

These two play relatively quickly,  but they are both clearly top five defenses in the NBA. The Thunder are number one in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. The Spurs are a top five defense and with a healthy Wemby they are top three on defense.

Christmas Day unders have done very well long term in the NBA, with the earlier Christmas Day games being the ones that have been strongest to the under. The players usually have their Christmas celebration with family on Christmas Eve, and that makes this a very unique spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden hosts an early Christmas Day game between the Knicks and the visiting Cleveland Cavs. 

The Knicks still play at a relatively slow pace. New York is unlikely to push the pace here in a noon eastern tipoff on Christmas Day.

The Cavs don't have the same firepower on a consistent basis this season. 

Christmas Day unders have done very well long term in the NBA, with the earlier Christmas Day games being the ones that have been strongest to the under. The players usually have their Christmas celebration with family on Christmas Eve, and that makes this a very unique spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 358th (out of 365) in overall tempo. The Panthers are 219th in offensive efficiency. They are 22nd in defensive efficiency. St. Mary's is 232nd in overall tempo, but they are 296th in average possession length. St. Mary's has faced a lot of fast paced teams this season.

St. Mary's is 18th in overall defensive efficiency. They are always great on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. Offensively, St. Mary's can do a lot of damage against defenses who can't get defensive rebounds, but Northern Iowa has ranked highly on the defensive glass many years in a row.

Two well coached teams who slow the pace down and defend without fouling. I like the chances of this being a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rider is dead last in the country averaging 55.6 points per game so far this season. The Broncs take a bunch of low quality mid range jumpers. Rider is 364th out of 365 teams nationally in offensive efficiency. They are up against a VCU team that is 35th in defensive efficiency. 

Rider is 354th in average possession length. They have been stalling to the extreme even though they have been losing by large margins on a regular basis. 

VCU is a rim and 3 type team. One relative strength of Rider is they don't foul too much and they defend the three point jumper better than average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers arguably have the worst defense in the country. Denver is 364th in defensive efficiency. They are 364th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 364th in 3 point FG% defense. They were helped by last game when N Colorado was missing two of their top outside shooters and didn't shoot the ball well. That game still finished 86-79 Denver. 

Denver is 107th in offensive efficiency. They are getting up quite a few good looks from the outside. 

Tulsa has been great this season. They are averaging 86.1 points per game. They are averaging 99.7 points per game at home this season. They are averaging 94 points per game in their last three games. Tulsa puts up a lot of long range shots, and they are shooting 40.9% from 3. Denver can't defend beyond the arc. 

Both teams shoot free throws very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland State Vikings are 355th out of 365 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Vikings are 353rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They have no shot blockers, and they don't force many turnovers at all. 

Cleveland State is also 76th in overall tempo, so they have played in some very high scoring games. They shoot it very well from 3 point range, and they get to the free throw line a bunch.

Milwaukee is 112th in overall tempo, so they prefer to run too. They are 352nd at defending the 3 point shot. They are great on the offensive glass, and they take care of the basketball. 

A high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a good battle between two teams who are defense first basketball teams. Clemson is 29th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Tigers are 132nd in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Cincinnati is 14th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bearcats are 219th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Cincinnati already had a lower scoring game against a very fast paced Louisville team that is very good on offense. The Bearcats have great shot blockers who should bother Clemson's front line. 

Cincinnati settles for a bunch of long range jumpers even though they aren't good at them, and Clemson is fourth nationally in 3 point FG% defense.

A neutral site game too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have been great on offense at home. They are averaging 87 points per game at home. Utah is up against an Eastern Washington team that is 347th in effective field goal percentage defense. Eastern Washington is 103rd in tempo nationally. They are 112th in effective field goal percentage on offense. 

Both teams should get quite a few open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes and North Carolina Tar Heels meet at State Farm Arena in Georgia for a fun non-conference neutral site contest before both start into league play soon. 

Ohio State has feasted on a lot of weaker defenses so far this season. The Buckeyes have a great leader in Bruce Thornton, but their secondary scoring options are not consistent. 

North Carolina is 5th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. The Tar Heels are the tallest team in the country, and I think their length will bother the Buckeyes offense.

No one has scored more than 74 points on North Carolina all season. The implied team total for Ohio State here is about 75.5. 

The under is 17-10 at this venue.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers are dead last in defensive efficiency nationally (365th). Denver has allowed 84 points or more in nine of their ten games against Division One opponents. They have allowed 93 points or more in three of their last four against Division One teams.

Northern Colorado is always strong on offense under Coach Smiley. They are 29th in effective field goal percentage this year. Northern Colorado takes a lot of shots from long range. Denver is last in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

Denver's offense is pretty good. The Pioneers should be fairly efficient against a mediocre Northern Colorado defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are 360th in average possession length nationally. They are also 358th out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They take low quality shots. They turn the ball over a lot. They don't get to the free throw line much at all. They are 284th in offensive rebounding percentage too. Defensively, they are decent. They are 156th in effective field goal percentage defense nationally.

ULM hasn't played many slow paced teams this year. The Warhawks are 342nd in offensive rebounding percentage. They are taking a bunch of three pointers, but Louisiana has been good defending those this season. ULM doesn't foul much at all.

A slow pace here. Seven straight games for Louisiana have finished under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UT Martin is 318th in average possession length. The Skyhawks are trying hard to slow the game down. Tennessee State is 140th in average possession length.

Tennessee State is 357th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They are good at forcing steals on defense, but they aren't efficient in getting points off those steals. The Tigers are still pretty fast paced, but they are more defensive oriented under Nolan Smith this season.

UT Martin has had five straight games below this total. I think this will make a sixth straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Indiana State is a completely different team this year. They had to win really high scoring games last year, but their defense has been much improved this season. The Sycamores are 48th in shot quality shot selection allowed. They have allowed an average of 59 points per game at home this season.

Bradley is always one of the best defensive teams in the MVC. The Braves have a nice combination of shot blockers and guards who can steal the basketball.

This total has been pushed up in the market, and I think it is several points too high now. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 324th in the nation in average possession length. This is a team that wants to move very slowly with Simmons as their head coach. SIU Edwardsville is 300th in overall tempo, so I don't expect them to be pushing the issue here either.

Four of the last five games between these two teams have finished with 125 total points or fewer. These teams are both weak on the offensive end, and they aren't good at getting to the free throw line or shooting from the outside.

SIU Edwardsville is loaded with shot blockers led by Sakenis. Eastern Illinois tries to score near the hoop as often as possible.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel messed around and tried pushing the pace a few times earlier this year, and it went terribly. They have settled back into their very slow pace. Their last five games have all stayed under this total. The Citadel is a bottom 25 tempo team.

Charleston is far slower than they were a year ago. They are 269th in overall tempo this season. The Cougars have played a lot of very good offenses, and they are stepping way down in class here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mercyhurst Lakers are dead last in the nation in average possession length. They are stalling in every way possible. They don't have the firepower to win higher scoring games, and they don't have the outside shooters they have had in the past. Mercyhurst is taking a bunch of shots inside the paint and mid range jumpers. Syracuse has elite shot blockers, and I think they'll shut them down here.

Syracuse isn't very good on offense without Freeman. The Orange have had some pretty low scoring games against weak opponents.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are an excellent under team. Northern Iowa is 25th nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 352nd in tempo, so they play extremely slowly. The Panthers are 296th in shot selection. They are an impressive 33rd in shot selection allowed.

UIC is 213th in overall tempo. The Flames rely on two things on offense- offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line. UIC struggles badly in the halfcourt too. N Iowa is excellent in transition defense, and they are very good at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds. 

Northern Iowa has seen 7 of their last 8 stay under this total in regulation. The one that went over got to just 138 points and it was against an Oakland team that has been an over machine.

Take the under here.