*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been as dominant this year as it has been in past seasons, but Kansas City still has more upside than many believe on that side of the football. Patrick Mahomes is still the top quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is capable of roasting any defense in the league when he is at his best. Travis Kelce isn't what he once was, but I expect him to have a big game in a one game sample like this. The Chiefs also have a very good offensive line. Both Pacheco and Hunt are more than capable out of the backfield too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a blueprint for success with the running game here. The Buffalo Bills were highly successful running the ball on the Chiefs last time out. The Eagles have a superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is healthier than he has been in quite a while. The Eagles have good wideouts and an excellent tight end.

This game is played on a fast track in the dome in New Orleans. NFL playoff games played in a dome are 37-18 (67.3% overs) since 2004. When the total is below 50, the dome game playoff overs are 25-11.

These two put on a high scoring Super Bowl a couple years ago. I don't think this one will be that high scoring, but I do like it to go over this much lower posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love have some question marks around them right now. Hurts is recovering from a concussion and hasn't played in quite some time. We've seen many quarterbacks struggle in their first game back from a concussion. Jordan Love banged up his elbow last week, and Love is said to be less than 100 percent.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense was first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. The Green Bay Packers defense was fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. 

The Eagles are first in the NFL in percentage of plays that are a run. The Green Bay Packers are third. The clock should keep ticking in this one. Philadelphia is 24th in tempo in the league and Green Bay is 30th, so neither team plays very fast.

I think we should see some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock. Both quarterbacks are good when full strength, but there are large question marks here. 

Christian Watson is a key loss for the Packers offense as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish haven't had any downfield passing game. Riley Leonard's average depth of target the last three games is barely above 5 yards. Notre Dame is relying on a strong offensive line and a good running game to get them enough points. With Love being less than 100%, I think Leonard will be leaned on even more in the running game. This makes long slow drives from Notre Dame even more likely. Notre Dame is bottom 25 in the country in tempo. 

Penn State is 81st in the country in tempo, so they don't play very fast either. Notre Dame is second in the country in explosiveness allowed. The Fighting Irish have what is probably the best secondary in the country. They are first in passing play success rate allowed and first in QBR allowed. Penn State is only 108th in explosiveness, so I think they'll find big plays hard to come by. 

Notre Dame was just in a hard fought low scoring game against Georgia. I think this one plays out similarly. 

Penn State is first in defensive line yards this year. Notre Dame should find it tough to run consistently on Penn State. Notre Dame hasn't shown the ability to throw it deep. 

Both teams are great defensively in the red zone. The long drives leading to field goals help an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home this year. Detroit has seen six of their last seven games at home finish with at least 58 points total.

The first time these two teams met it was 31-29 in Minnesota. The Lions defense was much healthier then than it is now. Detroit has given up a staggering 7.6 yards per play (worst in the NFL) in their last three games. The Lions defense gets back a bit of help on defense here, but they are still very shorthanded. The weakness of the Lions defense is the secondary and the pass rush. 

Sam Darnold is playing some excellent football, and he has amazing weapons to spread the ball around to here. The Vikings receivers should have a big day. 

Detroit's offense is amazing at home. Jared Goff is playing tremendous football, and the Lions have some very good balance.

These two teams are first and second in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more. I expect to see a lot of explosive plays in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense has been really bad down the stretch, and they are really up against it here facing the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa Bay put up 51 point and a whopping 594 yards of offense on the Saints in the first meeting. I'm certainly not expecting that again, but I think Baker Mayfield and company will do a lot of damage again.

Tampa Bay needs to win here to be in and I expect them to win. The oddsmakers expect this one to not be very close. I think that is a real possibility, but Tampa Bay playing with a decent lead in the second half could help the over here. 

Spencer Rattler has been playing better and the Tampa Bay secondary is a clear weakness with their current injury issues. Rattler and the Saints could have chances to put up points late here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has been excellent all year. It certainly is a negative to be without Mills on the defensive line, but Notre Dame as a unit is still very strong on defense. The secondary is the best in the country. They are 2nd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think it will be tough for Georgia to break big plays here.

Georgia will start backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. He is a highly recruited guy, but he is untested in the passing game. The Notre Dame secondary is an extremely difficult matchup for them. The Georgia wide receivers aren't as good as normal, and drops have been a major problem. 

The Bulldogs ground attack has been subpar all season. Georgia is 84th in offensive line yards this year. They are just 79th in ypc. They will likely run it more in this game. Georgia is just 72nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Notre Dame will likely run the ball a bunch with Riley Leonard and Love in this game. I expect them to have some success, but I think they will have long slow drives. Notre Dame is 107th in the country in tempo. I think Kirby Smart and company will have a good defensive game plan ready for this one.

I expect a tight and low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense is a bit of an unknown now with Penix taking over under center. Atlanta has a pretty good rushing attack, but I expect Washington to be able to take away the explosive rushing plays especially with the weather conditions in this one.

The Washington offense can be explosive, but they are just 14th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Commanders defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

The Falcons defense is middle of the road on the season, and the offense has had trouble in the red zone.

The weather here should matter quite a bit. The forecast calls for 18 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 30 mph. There is expected to be steady rain as well. That should make both offenses less aggressive.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland doesn't look good for this game. We know this is a stadium where weather matters much more than the average NFL stadium. Cleveland games have been very low scoring with wind and precipitation. 

The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds and 90% rain during this game. The winds will actually be increasing as we go later into the game.

The Browns have chosen to go with DTR as their starting quarterback, and that makes them a lot better under team than when they had Winston. DTR is very limited in his passing ability and the Miami defense should be able to limit explosives much better.

The Browns defense played very well against the Bengals last week, and overall the Browns have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

I think this Browns offense is a bottom 3 offense in the NFL in its current state. The Miami offense is shorthanded as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jets defense played well last week against the Rams. 

Buffalo has had some very high scoring games of late against the likes of the Lions and the Rams, but I expect this game to look different. Buffalo's defense gets a big boost from Matt Milano being back for this one. Rasul Douglas is also back at cornerback.

The first game between these two was 23-20. This game is being played at Buffalo during some pretty major winds. The average sustained wind during this game is forecast to be about 19 mph. Off and on rain showers could change the game as well.

Divisional unders are a little north of 57% in the last 15 years when there is an average wind of 10 mph or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets defense hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but the offense has found its footing in recent weeks. The Jets offense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Jets have played in four straight games that have gone over this posted total. 

The Rams are coming off a low scoring win over San Francisco in that rainy and windy game. The fact that a weather game like that made it lower scoring has given us some value here. The Rams offense was humming along before last week. Three of the Rams last five games have hit 50 points or more.

The Rams offense when healthy is dangerous, and they are much healthier now than they were earlier in the year. Rodgers has more weapons around him now, and he should be able to take advantage of a questionable Rams defense.

It will be cold here, but very cold weather has helped overs in the past in the NFL by a pretty big margin, especially in non-divisional games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Philadelphia locked down the Commanders the first time these two met until Washington put up 8 points in garbage time. That game finished with 44 points despite the 28 point fourth quarter.

Washington's defense has really improved throughout the season. The Commanders are top ten in all major defensive stats in the last three games. They are second in yards per carry allowed in the last three games.

Philadelphia is playing at a slow pace, especially when they have the lead. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points here so the game script could help us out.

Divisional unders from game number 10 until the end of the season are 56% in the last 625 games. If you exclude the last week of the season, those unders sit at 59%. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers offense has been playing their very best at the end of the season. In the last six games, Memphis has averaged a little more than 39 points per game. 

Memphis has a history of showing up with some great offense in bowl games under Ryan Silverfield as well. Memphis put up 36 points against a good Iowa State defense last year. They scored 38 on Utah State a couple years ago. Memphis also had that 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl under Silverfield. 

Seth Hennigan is a good veteran quarterback and he's up against a West Virginia defense that is 124th in QBR allowed. Now, West Virginia is without two corners who are in the transfer portal. West Virginia is also without star linebacker Josiah Trotter. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 36.17 points per game in their last six games. Now, they are missing some of their very best defenders.

West Virginia has most of their key guys on offense playing here. The Mountaineers are 10th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, and Memphis gives up a bunch of big plays. The Tigers are 123rd in explosiveness allowed. Memphis played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses,  but they allowed 44 against UTSA and 56 against Navy. Even in their win against Tulane, they allowed 7.3 YPP.

These two teams are 123rd and 124th in explosiveness allowed, and I think we'll see quick touchdown drives both ways. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a mess last week with Kyler Murray throwing picks and being out of rhythm, but I like them to bounce back against a weak New England Patriots defense. 

New England doesn't have the kind of secondary to keep Arizona's passing attack quiet all game. The Pats are giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt despite playing a relatively easy schedule of opposing passing attacks.

New England's offense is much better with Drake Maye. Maye has impressed me quite a bit this season. He's a great scrambler, and he is up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against quarterbacks who can run. 

With Kyler Murray as the home quarterback, Cardinals games with a posted total of 49 or lower are 19-11 to the over. Drake Maye's games as a starter are 6-2 to the over. The two unders were against lower scoring teams in the Titans and Bears.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins is finally getting back into a groove. We know this offense has a ton of weapons and with Tua healthy they should be able to move it well on just about everyone. 

The Houston defense is good at rushing the passer, but I think Miami can scheme up enough quick passes to keep them guessing here. Miami has multiple good backs and great wide receivers who can be utilized in the short passing game.

I think C.J. Stroud is due for some positive regression with healthier wide receivers around him, and the Dolphins defense is no better than mediocre.

This is a game played on a fast track and I like both teams to get well into the 20's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Chargers offense has struggled without JK Dobbins. Justin Herbert has been under more pressure, and the passing game is having to do it all. This Kansas City defensive line is fantastic in the middle and I think they'll be in the backfield quite a bit on Sunday night.

Kansas City's offense just hasn't gotten going this year. The Chiefs are 22nd in yards per play for the season. They are 24th in the last three games. Kansas City is up against a Chargers defense that is third in the league in yards per play allowed on the road this year.

A bit of a wind (11 or 12 mph) here in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is also the Bill Vinovich crew. The under is an impressive 104-72 in this crew's games. They have the best under record of any of the referee crews.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most improved defenses in the NFL from the start of the season to right now. Arizona is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Seattle is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

I think both of these defensive coordinators are excellent and the head coaches are really focusing on defense as well.

These two teams just played a 16-6 game recently and that was with a pick six. These two offenses haven't been explosive of late, and I think there will be plenty of tackles for a loss in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense started the year off in disappointing fashion. They underachieved for a bit before they settled on Tyler Huff as the starting quarterback. Huff's dual threat ability really helped this team go to the next level throughout the season.

Huff was injured last week against Western Kentucky. He has a leg/ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If Huff does play he should be less than 100%. He has less than a week to recover before this Friday night contest.

Western Kentucky doesn't have much of a running game. That should put a lot of pressure on Veltkamp to be great here. I think the Jacksonville State pass rush can get to Veltkamp some in this game. 

These two defenses both do a really good job of preventing plays. They are both top 30 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Both defenses have done a great job bending but not breaking and being strong in the red zone.

This total is set pretty high for question marks surrounding the most important player on the Gamecocks offense. Western Kentucky has been inconsistent offensively this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers offense has been much improved of late. Bryce Young is playing decent football. The Kansas City defense is very good, and Young played well against them a week ago. Chuba Hubbard has turned into a really solid running back. The Panthers pass catchers have also gotten a bit healthier.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. I really like the offensive scheme they are running with Coen. Baker Mayfield is playing well and with Mike Evans healthy they have one of the top playmakers at wide receiver in the league.

Tampa Bay has a history of some very high scoring games. Five of their last seven games have gone to 54 points or higher total. 

These are two bottom six or seven defenses in the NFL.

The referee crew in this one has been 24-17 to the over. The weather for this game is good with a temperature in the mid 40's and almost no wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers defense isn't a bad defense, but they are certainly not the dominant defense they have looked like in the stats earlier in the season. They had a run of tremendous luck of facing weak quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks for a long time. The Bengals and Ravens both moved the ball easily on the Chargers. 

I'm not saying the Falcons are on par with the Ravens or Bengals offense, but the Falcons do have a lot of good skill position talent. They are playing on the fast track here. I think they can make some things happen.

The Chargers offense has gotten more pass heavy of late. Justin Herbert is fully healthy and with Dobbins injured the Chargers are likely to throw it even more. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks. I see Herbert having a lot of time to throw the ball down the field here. The Falcons have a below average defense on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers gained 8.2 yards per play and put up 39 points on Florida Atlantic last week. Charlotte has a new coach, and they were more aggressive offensively in that game. 

UAB scored 40 points in a 40-14 win over Rice last week. UAB is 32nd in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have had a lot of points in most of their games by one team or the other. In fact, every UAB game this year has had one team with at least 31 points. In six of their last eight games, one of the teams involved has hit at least 40 points.

UAB has actually hit some more big plays with Kitna at quarterback. The Charlotte defense has allowed 33 plays of 30 or more yards this year.

Charlotte is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are likely to hit a few big gainers here. They have 58 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. 

Both offenses have been bothered by strong defensive lines that cause havoc in the backfield. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom 15 in the country in havoc created, so the quarterbacks should have time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 121st and 122nd in pace of play. There shouldn't be very many possessions in this game. 

Miami is first in the MAC in yards per play allowed. Salopek is the leader of a really good Miami Redhawks defense. 

Bowling Green is likely to load up the box and try to make Gabbert and Miami's offense to beat them through the air. Miami's wide receivers have loads of drops this year, and Gabbert has struggled for much of the season.

These two teams are 63rd and 66th in the country in explosiveness on offense. I don't think there will be many big plays.

Fannin Jr. is banged up and is questionable here. He will likely play for Bowling Green, but him at less than 100% certainly slows this offense.

The wind here is forecast to be 18 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph. This is a stadium where the wind tunnels and it should change the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions are averaging 37.6 points per game at home this year. Detroit is is averaging 48.6 points per game in their last three home games. Jared Goff is surrounded by a plethora of weapons. The Lions are a great offense, especially when they are home on the fast track in Detroit. 

Chicago's defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. The Bears defense is no better than mediocre, and of late they have looked worse than that. Chicago's offense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple games. They did make some coaching changes. The Bears did put up 391 yards on Green Bay two weeks ago and 398 yards and 27 points last week against the Vikings.

Detroit wants to put on a show for Thanksgiving viewers. The Lions are likely to put up a pretty big number. I think Chicago can do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense is improving week by week with Tua back and Hill getting a bit healthier. The Dolphins are explosive and this Patriots defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The Patriots defense isn't innovative and their coverages are too easy to read for the best offenses. 

The New England Patriots offense is definitely moving the ball much better with Drake Maye. Maye has shown several good signs of being a good long term option under center. The Dolphins defense is a mediocre unit.

I see this as a game where the Dolphins have potential to score a bunch, and the Patriots should be able to do enough in a game script where they are playing catchup and throwing it around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans have Nico Collins back, and he makes a world of difference for C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense. Collins is the game changer on the outside that opens everything else up for Houston. 

The Titans offense has certainly been better of late. They are averaging 5.5 yards per play in their last three games, which is above the league average during that time. Will Levis has been a bit better since returning from injury.

The Titans defense is poor at getting off the field on key plays, and I like the Texans ability to make them pay once they get into the red zone. Stroud is a good decision maker.

This one is played on the fast track with a very low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma defense has been superb this year. They are 13th in success rate allowed. They are first in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 2nd in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The Oklahoma team this year has disappointed, but it definitely hasn't been the fault of the defense.

Alabama is bottom 30 in the country in offensive line yards. The Crimson Tide offensive line has really struggled in run blocking this year. Jalen Milroe is excellent and he has made some things happen even with that poor offensive line play. In general though, Alabama has been better in the passing game.

Oklahoma will be up against an underrated Alabama defense. They are 14th in success rate allowed on defense. Oklahoma is averaging a miserable 2.49 yards per carry on offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here.

The weather could play a major role here. There are expected to be sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 30 mph during this game. In general that leads to more running and I think both run defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a good quarterback in Vattiato. The problem this year has been the offensive line is really bad in pass blocking and he hasn't had enough time to throw. When he has time to throw, he is a solid quarterback. New Mexico State ranks 119th in pass rushing grade at PFF and they have just 13 sacks all season. I think the MTSU passing game is going to look better in this game.

New Mexico State does have a good rushing attack. They are 38th in offensive line yards and 43rd in rushing play success rate. MTSU is 122nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Liberty just ran for more than 330 yards on them. LA Tech rolled up 551 yards of offense against MTSU. The Blue Raiders defense is a bottom ten unit in the country.

There are two bottom 15 defenses in the country in this contest. These offenses have been inconsistent, but I think the defenses are bad enough that the offenses can get it going some here. Also, this game means little to the teams with no chances of a bowl berth. That lends itself to higher scoring games on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans meet on Friday night in East Lansing. Purdue is having a very forgettable season. Michigan State has been inconsistent, but they have shown promising signs under Coach Smith.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. Purdue is 108th in tempo out of 134 teams despite being far behind in most of their games. The Boilermakers have slowed their tempo down even more in Big Ten play. 

Michigan State is 120th in the country in tempo. The Spartans offensive line has struggled this season. They are 114th in offensive line yards and 117th in yards per carry. Michigan State is 121st in offensive explosiveness, so they haven't gotten many big plays.

Purdue has a decent running game, but the strength of the Michigan State defense is their ability to slow down the run. They are 24th in defensive line yards and 30th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds in the 16-17 mph range with gusts in the low 20's. There is also a chance for a passing shower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets host the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night in Toledo. 

Ohio has the second ranked defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.06 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio is 20th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. The Bobcats defense has been in great form of late. They have allowed a total of 26 points in their last three games combined.

Toledo is 37th nationally in rushing play success rate allowed. They are good at getting teams behind the chains with their aggressive front seven. Ohio is just 103rd in offensive explosiveness. The Bobcats are reliant on slowly moving the ball down the field. Ohio is 108th out of 134 teams in the country in tempo.

The two offensive lines here are subpar, and I think the defensive fronts can do a good job slowing down the run game. 

The weather here calls for 20 mph winds with gusts pushing 30 mph with rain showers expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game and should make the teams more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense is a shell of its former self when it comes to weapons on the outside. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are both out here. Amari Cooper is questionable. They have already been without a star wide receiver, but now they are really thin. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are also without their star receiver Rashee Rice. Kansas City is 19th in yards per play on offense this year. Patrick Mahomes is fantastic, but without Rice and Pacheco he has been limited in his ability to create big plays. 

Both Kansas City and Buffalo play at a slower pace than the average NFL team. 

Kansas City's defense is excellent. They should be able to keep the Bills in front of them and limit the big plays. The Buffalo defense has been really good against the run in the last few weeks, and they seem to be trending in the right direction.

This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks, but I think the injuries at the key skill position spots are going to help the defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas offense has come on in a big way the last few games. Kansas is now first in the Big 12 in yards per play because of their great showings the last few weeks. Kansas put up 8.6 yards per play and 42 points on a good Houston defense. They just torched a good Iowa State team for 536 yards and 45 points. Jalon Daniels is taking shots down the field, and the Jayhawks offensive line is dominating in the trenches. 

BYU is just 88th in yards per carry allowed. They are 82nd in rushing play success rate allowed. I think Kansas can have a big day on the ground here. 

The Kansas defense is still a major weakness. Kansas is 116th in defensive line yards. BYU has improved running the football and will do damage here. Retzlaff is good for a couple big plays through the air too. Kansas is 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed.

I expect a tight back and forth contest here. There is even a possibility of overtime with a spread this close and BYU's propensity for playing close games.

The two offenses are both better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Five of those eight games have finished with 45 combined points or fewer. Most of their lowest scoring games have been against the best teams they have played (Ole Miss, Texas, Clemson) with only the Alabama game being high scoring. 

Georgia's rushing attack has been very weak this year. Tennessee's front seven on defense is arguably the best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to throw the ball. I don't trust Carson Beck to do a good job moving it down the field with a lot of pressure in his face.

The Tennessee offense is only averaging 24.5 points per game in the SEC. They are 10th in yards per play in the SEC. The Volunteers have played six straight games that have stayed under this total! 

Nico Iamaleava is banged up and is questionable to play in this one. Even if he plays he'll likely be less than 100 percent. The passing game hasn't been working, and I think Kirby Smart will scheme up his defense to stop the run here and try to make Tennessee throw the football.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have impressed on the offensive line. They are 23rd in offensive line yards this year. Marshall is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. That should be a problem for Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is 120th in defensive line yards. They are 114th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Coastal Carolina's offense has been pretty good this season. The Chanticleers are 51st in the country in yards per play. They are 20th in offensive explosiveness, and Marshall has given up a decent amount of big plays this year. 

Marshall has played some of the lower scoring and slower paced teams in the Sun Belt. Marshall has recent wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss for example. Marshall did get in a high scoring shootout against App State earlier in the year.

Both of these teams play at a pace that is a little faster than average. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have played eight games against FBS opponents so far this year. Five of those eight games have finished with a combined total of 43 points or fewer. 

Northern Illinois is coming off a high scoring game against Western Michigan, and I think that has given us a little extra value to the under in this game. Western Michigan has forced all of these MAC games to be high scoring. Northern Illinois now plays Akron, who has played in some low scoring games and some high scoring games.

The weather here should matter too. The forecast calls for steady rain and winds of 12 mph with gusts to 17 mph. That should make the coaching staffs a bit more conservative. That tends to lead to tighter games that stay under the number.

Akron is a respectable 54th in defensive line yards. N. Illinois isn't very good in the passing game, and the Huskies are 113th in explosiveness on offense. N. Illinois is 12th in the MAC in yards per play.

Akron is 116th in offensive line yards and should struggle to run the ball much here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have played five games in the MAC thus far. The total number of points scored in their five games in the MAC thus far: 87, 58, 89, 73, and 70 points. All five games have gone over this posted total. All but one of their games in the conference have hit at least 70 points. The fact that Western Michigan got into a shootout with a Northern Illinois team I consider a solid under team speaks volumes as to what they do to games.

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in yards per play at 7.01 yards per play. Bowling Green is 115th in defensive line yards. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run against the best rushing teams they have faced. 

Bowling Green had a low scoring game last week which has depressed this total some. That game was played in heavy winds against Central Michigan who was starting their third string quarterback in that game. Bowling Green has a lot of talent on offense. The Western Michigan defense is 124th in success rate allowed. Bowling Green has several key matchup advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*Note- this one has moved a bit since I selected it, but I would still bet this for the same rating at 59 or lower. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* Derek Carr is back for this one. I'm not a huge fan of Carr on the whole, but he is a massive upgrade from what the Saints have had in the last few weeks. 

Kirk Cousins is playing well and this Atlanta offense is in a good position against a New Orleans defense that ranks bottom 3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Marshon Lattimore is gone now too. While he was often injured, he was extremely talented and they'll miss him in the secondary. 

Both of these teams rank in the top six in the NFL in tempo. This game is being played in a dome on the fast track. New Orleans has been a top ten offense with Carr playing this year. Atlanta is top eight in total offense.

The NFC South has been a division full of high scoring games against each other so far this year. NFC South games between teams inside the division are 7-0 to the over this year. Six of those seven games have gone over the total by more than a touchdown.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense has struggled against good defenses, but against the worst defenses they have played this year Tennessee has run up the score in a big way. Mississippi State is one of the very worst defenses in the country. Mississippi State is 129th out of 134 teams in the country in success rate allowed on defense. The Bulldogs are giving up a ridiculous 8.03 yards per play in SEC action. They allowed 41 points against Toledo. They allowed 58 points against Arkansas. They gave up 45 points to Florida. Tennessee should do a lot of damage here.

The Mississippi State offense has been better of late. Van Buren is doing a solid job at quarterback. The Bulldogs put up 31 points against Georgia recently. They also scored 24 on a good Texas A&M defense. While the Tennessee defense is very solid, I think the Volunteers letting up with a lead late could help Mississippi State put up quite a few points in the second half here.

These two teams both rank in the top eight in the country in tempo. There will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense is playing much better in recent weeks. Bailey has really started to play some good football at quarterback after he has gotten some more experience. NC State crushed Stanford by putting up 59 points on them last week. NC State averaged 8.5 yards per play in that contest. 

Duke put up 31 points in their loss to Miami last week. The NC State offense has improved, but this NC State defense has been very weak this year. The Wolfpack are 12th in ACC play in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad against the run.

NC State had several very low scores right after Grayson McCall was injured. They had to get things together as an offense. They also played some teams who play very slowly and are under teams. Duke is top 25 in tempo. I think those low scores from earlier in the year are giving us value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. East Carolina is pushing the pace to the extreme. Katin Houser is a clear upgrade from Jake Garcia, and the offense has finally found its way of late. East Carolina has been piling up the points and giving up the points in bunches of late. Their last three games have finished at 79, 73, and 90 total points. 

Florida Atlantic's defense has fallen apart. They just gave up 44 points to USF who was without star quarterback Byrum Brown in that game. Florida Atlantic is playing at a faster than average pace, and they have been throwing the ball at a higher rate of late. Five games in a row against FBS opponents have finished at 58 combined points or more for Florida Atlantic. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in explosiveness on offense. Both teams rank in the bottom 40 in explosiveness allowed. The fast pace and big plays make me like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns are a completely different team with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. I consider him a clear upgrade from Deshaun Watson. He's also definitely a better option if you are looking for points in a game overall. Winston is going to take chances down the field. He's also going to throw some bad picks now and then. It could mean more points for the Browns or the other team.

The Chargers have had a bunch of low scoring games, but they have played some really bad offenses. The Browns with Winston are a step up from what they have been playing. Additionally, the Chargers are now becoming more aggressive on offense since Justin Herbert is healthy once again.

The oddsmakers have adjusted this total up some, but I don't think they have adjusted it enough. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL. In fact, this team is ranked in the top five in the last 20 years in yards per play through this many games. Lamar Jackson is playing some great football. Derrick Henry has been an amazing match for the Ravens offensive scheme too. They now have better pass catchers than they have had in recent seasons.

Baltimore's defense has been a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays and committing too many big penalties. 

The Denver defense is pretty good, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their numbers look. Denver has faced Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young in the last two weeks. Those quarterbacks make a defense look really good. This is easily the best offense they have had to go against.

Bo Nix has done a really good job in this offense. The Broncos play calling has been great to build around Nix's strengths.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes are definitely better on offense this year than they have been the last couple seasons. I know McNamara is out for this game, but I think Brendan Sullivan is better than McNamara. The market has hit this total downward with McNamara out, but I consider it a plus that Sullivan is starting at quarterback here. Sullivan gives them some ability to run at the quarterback position as well.

Wisconsin's offense is 4th in the Big Ten in yards per play at 6.21. The Badgers struggled against Penn State, but the Penn State defense is better than Iowa's defense this year. Iowa is just sixth in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed. The Hawkeyes defense isn't bad by any means, they just aren't nearly as dominant as they were before.

Wisconsin is 86th in YPC allowed. Iowa is 12th in YPC. The Hawkeyes should get quite a bit of work done on the ground here.

I think this total is set like Iowa's totals were last year, and this Iowa team is definitely different than last year's team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense looked amazing against the Mississippi State Bulldogs horrible defense yesterday. Now, they go up against an Ole Miss defense that is first in the nation in success rate allowed.

Ole Miss is easily first in the nation in tackles for a loss, and the Arkansas offensive line is 92nd in havoc allowed. Ole Miss should be in the backfield a bunch in this one. Arkansas wants to run the ball a lot, but Ole Miss is first in the nation in yards per carry allowed and first in the nation in defensive line yards.

The Ole Miss offense hasn't topped 27 points in their last four games. The Rebels are inconsistent on offense. They are just sixth in the SEC in yards per play on offense.

I think this number is too high. The oddsmakers aren't giving the Ole Miss defense enough credit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense has been playing much better of late. Bailey is throwing the football well. NC State is up to 26th in the nation in passing play success rate on offense. NC State isn't a great offense, but they have been decent in recent weeks and I think the market is underrating them.

Ashton Daniels missed quite a bit of time, and the Stanford offense was much worse when he was out. He was back last week and is expected to play here. Daniels does the turn the ball over quite a bit, but he allows the offense to have some dual threat ability. Stanford has excellent wide receivers who will be a mismatch for the NC State secondary.

These are two bad defenses. NC State is 92nd in the nation in yards per play. They are 103rd in success rate allowed. NC State is 102nd in pass play success rate allowed.

Stanford is terrible against the pass. The Cardinal are 124th in QBR allowed. They are 115th in yards per play allowed. 

This total is set too low for a game with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There's a good chance D.K. Metcalf will miss this game with an injury. He's a game changer at wide receiver and Geno Smith and company have a much lower upside on offense if he is less than 100 percent or misses this game.

I liked what I saw from the Seattle defense last week against Atlanta. Seattle is getting healthier on defense and they have a defensive-minded head coach who should do a good job game planning here.

The weather here is key as well. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph with rain throughout the day expected. The combination of wind and rain is very good for under bettors. It should make the game plans on offense more conservative.

The Buffalo Bills have been running the football quite a bit already. The Bills defense has been playing quite a bit better of late. Seattle is inconsistent on offense. Smith has been far better in domes and now he is out in the elements. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense will get Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back for this game. It's hard to overstate how much that helps this offense that has struggled of late. Those guys are the key playmakers for this team. 

The LA Chargers are throwing the ball more now that Justin Herbert is getting much healthier. The Chargers only scored 15 points because of some fluke things in their last game, but they put up 6.2 yards per play against the Cardinals.

The New Orleans defense is dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have given up 84 points in their last two games. 

The Chargers defense has trended worse in recent weeks. 

A total set this low with a mediocre defense and a terrible defense makes very little sense. It is on a fast track with no bad weather to worry about. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Jameis Winston is the new quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. I consider Winston a significant upgrade from DTR and a clear upgrade from Watson as well. Winston is a guy who is willing to take shots down the field. Winston is an 'over' type quarterback too. He can get big plays for his team and he can throw pick sixes as well. 

The Ravens defense has given up the most explosive passing plays of any team in the NFL. They may now be without star Marlon Humphrey as well. Baltimore's defense is 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Baltimore's offense is the best offense in the NFL. The Ravens are so well balanced. Lamar Jackson is playing great football, and Derrick Henry is healthy and running the ball really well. The Ravens are averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense which is easily first in the NFL.

The Cleveland defense is right in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories for the season. 

This total is set too low considering the changes at quarterback for the Browns and the elite offense from Baltimore.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense is clearly more capable under Drake Maye. He takes more chances down the field and is capable of keeping plays alive with his legs. Totals have to be adjusted upward some for the Patriots with Maye compared to Brissett. 

The New England defense that was expected to be decent this year has been bad. They are 25th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed 41 points and 32 points in their last two games.

This is a get right spot for the New York Jets. They couldn't get it going much on offense against a good Steelers defense, but Aaron Rodgers and company should look a lot better on offense here. Davante Adams has to help the offense as a whole and I think we will see it some here.

The Jets defense has been middle of the pack in the last few games. 

A temperature in the mid 50's and just 7 mph winds is a good setup here too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have a good secondary, but they are weak against the run. UCF is 2nd in the country in rushing play success rate. The Knights are 5th in offensive line yards. BYU is 77th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 82nd in defensive line yards. UCF just ran for 354 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per play against a good Iowa State defense. I think UCF can have a big game on offense here too.

BYU is 42nd in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Cougars are 44th in QBR on offense. They have multiple good receivers, and the weakness of the UCF defense is definitely their secondary. I think Retzlaff and the BYU wide receivers can take advantage of that weakness. UCF is 99th in explosiveness allowed on defense. 

Both of these defenses have faced quite a few weak offenses. I believe both defenses are overrated right now. 

UCF pushes the pace and Brown looks like a good fit at quarterback. BYU has scored 34 points or more in all but one of their games so far this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* You could make a good argument that this is a matchup of 2 of the bottom 5 defenses in the country. Kent State is either the worst defense in the country or they are second or third worst. Kent State is allowing 6.94 yards per play on the season. Kent is especially bad against the pass. Their opponent QBR allowed is 132nd in the nation. 

Western Michigan is giving up 7.32 yards per play in MAC play. The Broncos defense has been even worse than Kent in conference play alone. Western Michigan has allowed 19 plays of 20 yards or more in three games in MAC play. 

Western Michigan's offense is one of the best in the MAC. They have great balance. Western Michigan is PFF's 6th ranked offense in the country. I think they'll hit plenty of big plays against this Kent State defense. 

Kent State has been weak on offense for the year overall, but in MAC play they are 4th in yards per play on offense.

Three of Western Michigan's last five games have finished with a combined total of 87 points or more. Kent State has seen two of its last three games finish at 72 points or more.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense isn't good, but I think it is a little better than it looks on paper now. The Mountaineers were absolutely crushed by Clemson and that skewed their stats some. Marshall scored 52 points on them with less than 400 yards of total offense because of turnovers and short fields. Appalachian State looked better on defense against Louisiana last game. They have too much talent to be terrible on defense all year. 

Georgia State's offense has been slumping of late. Georgia State has scored only 20, 14, and 21 points in losses to Marshall, ODU, and Georgia Southern in their last three games. The Georgia State offense is just 92nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Appalachian State is reliant on explosive plays on offense, and their running game has been way down this year.

These two teams are just slightly faster than average in tempo in a neutral game state. This is a very high posted total for two offenses who are mediocre. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has really impressed so far this year. Liam Coen is doing a great job putting together a system that helps put Baker Mayfield in a situation where he can succeed. Mike Evans is elite and the Bucs scheme has been great. 

Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per play for the season at 6.9 yards per play. The Ravens are averaging 7.3 yards per play in their last three games. Lamar Jackson is rolling right now, and the Ravens have plenty of weapons to get the ball to now. 

The Ravens defense has allowed the most plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. Baltimore's defense hasn't been up to par compared to its defensive unit in recent years. Baltimore is 22nd in yards per play allowed this year.

These are two top six or so offenses and two defenses who are bottom half of the NFL right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Steelers have chosen to go with Russell Wilson at quarterback in this one. It kind of surprises me since they are 4-2 with Justin Fields under center. Also, the Steelers offensive line has cluster injuries. The Jets should be able to get a lot of pressure on Wilson. He's no longer nearly as mobile as he was in the past, and I think that pressure will bother him here. Wilson could certainly be rusty as well.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't played consistently well for the Jets. He does get a nice new weapon in Adams, but the Steelers defensive front should be able to get into the backfield a lot here as well. The Steelers still have a pretty good pass rush and the middle of the defensive line is good against the run.

I think both defenses will create negative plays here and get the opposition behind the sticks.

The under is 32-10 in the last 42 Sunday Night Football games. The under is 6-0 in the 6 Sunday Night games so far this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have been fantastic on offense. Jayden Daniels has been better than anyone could have expected in his rookie season. Daniels is the ultimate dual threat quarterback. He has plenty of weapons around him both in the running and passing game as well.

Carolina is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Panthers weren't good defensively to start with, but now with major defensive injuries they are in a terrible spot. Carolina has absolutely no pass rush at this point. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays.

Andy Dalton has come in and made this Panthers offense decent, which is a huge upgrade from what they were earlier in the season under Bryce Young. The Commanders defense has a bottom three pass rush as well, so Dalton should have plenty of time.

Four of the Panthers first six games have finished with 57 total points or more. The Commanders have seen four of their first six games finish with 53 points or more.

Washington should score a lot, and I think the Panthers can score quite a few here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams get behind the sticks too much. Kentucky 128th in tackles for loss allowed and Florida 71st in the country. Neither offense is consistently good enough to dig out of these holes.

I'm encouraged by what I’ve seen from this Florida defense the last couple games. 4.4 YPP allowed to UCF- I know UCF has issues but still impressive for the Gators defense. Just 4.5 YPP allowed to Tenn on the road. Fla doing a good job not giving up big plays.

Florida is 73rd in tempo and 117th for Kentucky in pace so there shouldnt' be many possessions.. Kentucky running the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps. Kentucky run game is successful without being explosive which can lend itself to unders especially since they aren’t good in the red zone. Long possessions ending in field goals are a big positive.

The fact is we have two teams who rank in the bottom 20 in the country in explosiveness. We have two defenses who are excellent at preventing big plays. I think this will be a tight low scoring game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns had one weakness coming into the season. That weakness is their secondary. The team overall is fantastic, but the secondary was beaten by good passing attacks last year and that was the big question coming into this year. What good quarterback/passing game has Texas played so far this year? Their opponents have been Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA, Miss State, and Oklahoma. There isn't a single decent passing attack on that schedule thus far. 

Georgia's Carson Beck is capable of big things. Beck has been a bit inconsistent this year, but a lot of that has been due to drops. Georgia still is light years better in the passing game than anyone else Texas has played. I think the Bulldogs can move it through the air in this one.

On the other side, Texas is taking advantage of their scoring opportunities this year. They have 26 touchdowns on 33 trips into the red zone. Texas has amazing weapons on offense. The Georgia defense is just 56th in yards per play allowed. This Georgia defense gave up 31 points to Mississippi State last week. They also were torched by Alabama. I think the Longhorns can put up plenty here.

Both teams like to throw the football, and I see both teams scoring plenty in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have been very good at forcing their style of play onto the opposition. Northern Illinois wants to run the football and decrease the amount of possessions in the game. Northern Illinois runs the ball on 65% of their plays on offense. They are just 102nd in explosiveness on offense, but they are a decent 62nd in YPC on the season. Their drives take a lot of time off the clock.

Northern Illinois is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. The Huskies defense has been elite! Northern Illinois held Notre Dame to 14 points. They gave up just 184 yards to Buffalo in an overtime game. They allowed only 171 yards to NC State. They gave up 210 yards and 7 points against Bowling Green.

Toledo's offense has been inconsistent, but their defense has been excellent. The Rockets are 22nd in yards per carry allowed. They are 21st in rushing play success rate allowed. They should at least be able to slow down the Huskies rushing attack. On offense, Toledo is 103rd in offensive line yards. They are just 89th in yards per play on offense. 

Both of the defensive fronts are in the top 25 in the country in havoc created. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen offense is completely different this year under a new offensive coordinator. Drew Cronic is the new offensive coordinator who came over from Mercer. Cronic has helped this team become far more dynamic and explosive on offense. 

Navy is third in the nation in yards per play this season. The Midshipmen are 25th in offensive explosiveness. The offensive line play has been elite. They are first in the nation in havoc allowed. Horvath has been fantastic at quarterback. Navy has scored 41 points or more in three of their five games. They have scored 34 points or more in all of their games.

Charlotte found a new quarterback, and the 49ers offense looks much better of late. Charlotte rolled up 517 yards and 55 points on E Carolina in their last game. The 49ers defense is really weak though. They are 123rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are also 123rd in explosiveness allowed. 

I think Navy scores a lot here and Charlotte scores enough as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers take on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

Auburn has been terrible at finishing drives this year. Auburn is a run heavy team, but Missouri is 11th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn's Payton Thorne isn't a trustworthy passer. Auburn has slowed their pace down a lot in SEC games too.

Missouri is 97th in the nation with just 23 plays of 20 yards or more all season. Missouri's lack of explosiveness on offense has been stunning. Brady Cook has played poorly compared to last season, and they definitely miss Schrader in the backfield. 

While the Auburn offense has disappointed much of the season, the Auburn defense has been good. Auburn is 32nd in yards per play allowed, and they have played their best defensively of late. Auburn held Arkansas to 4.0 yards per play and Georgia to just 5.8 yards per play.

I don't think we'll see many big plays here, and I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing 6.1 yards per play in their last three games. The Panthers easily moved the ball on them. The Commanders dominated this defense. The Ravens torched this defense. 

I'm not going to pretend the New York Giants without Nabers are as good as the Commanders or Ravens on offense. I still think they can score enough here though. The Bengals only have one defensive linemen (Hendrickson) getting any pressure right now. The Bengals secondary lost Dax Hill to injury and he was playing the best of anyone in this secondary.

On the other side, the Bengals offense is rolling of late. Cincinnati is averaging 6.7 yards per play in their last three games (3rd best in the NFL). Joe Burrow is having a special season and he has his full group of wide receivers healthy now. Erick All Jr. has been a nice addition to the offense at tight end. I don't think the Giants have the secondary to consistently slow down this Bengals passing attack.

The scoring in the NFL was up quite a bit last week. Getting the ball on the 30 yard line on kickoffs is a clear help to the offenses. This is a low total for a Bengals game with no apparent weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been in some very high scoring games this year. Washington State went to overtime at 46-46 against San Jose State. They lost 45-24 to Boise State. They also beat Portland State 70-30. 

Fresno State just lost 59-14 to UNLV. The Bulldogs beat Sacramento State 46-30. They gave up 485 yards of offense to New Mexico as well in a game that probably should have been higher scoring than it was. 

Washington State is 2nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. They have a great offensive coordinator in Arbuckle. They play at the 18th quickest tempo in the country. 

Fresno State plays at a quicker than average pace as well. They have been pretty good through the air this season. Washington State's safeties are a weakness. Defensively, Washington State is 117th in explosiveness allowed.

The weather here looks good and I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Old Dominion isn't very good, but they sure do play extremely fast. They are the second fastest paced team in the country this year. Old Dominion had a low scoring game against S Carolina early, but of late they have had higher scores. Colton Joseph has come in and played well at quarterback in relief of Grant Wilson. 

The Monarchs lost 45-37 at Coastal Carolina last week. Old Dominion had their best offensive game of the season thus far in that game. Old Dominion also put up 30 points in a win at Bowling Green two games ago.

Georgia State is playing faster than I expected this year. They are 42nd out of 134 teams in tempo. Georgia State is airing it out too. Old Dominion has a bottom 20 pass rush and a bottom ten tackling grade in the country. They have both starting safeties banged up- those guys missed the second half of last week and are questionable here. The Panthers should move the ball through the air.

Both defenses are far worse than average in explosiveness allowed. A lot of possessions here and some explosive plays. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't really a game I expected to bet on, but the line is just showing too much value for me to pass it up.

Rutgers gave up more than 500 yards to Washington and was fortunate to allow only 18 points in that game. The Scarlet Knights then gave up only 14 to Nebraska, but that game was played in a windstorm that absolutely limited the points in that contest. 

Rutgers has been poor against the run this year. The Scarlet Knights are 116th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 113th in defensive line yards allowed. I think Wisconsin with their 31st rushing play success rate on offense can have success here.

The Wisconsin defense has gotten much worse. They are 71st in yards per play allowed. They are 95th in defensive line yards, and the Rutgers ground attack should get going here.

Rutgers has gotten decent quarterback play from Kaliakmanis which is an upgrade from their QB play the last couple years.

The weather here looks good. 

I think the recent low scoring games for Rutgers has made this total too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level bad. Ball State is allowing 8.22 yards per play on the season. They have given up at least 34 points in every game so far this year. That includes allowing 34 against SE Missouri State and 37 against a poor Central Michigan offense. 

The Ball State offense has come to life of late. They played some good defenses earlier in the year, but Ball State put up 6.0 yards per play and 42 points on Western Michigan last week. I think their passing attack can have success here.

Kent State's defense is awful too. They are 131st in the nation (134 teams) in yards per play allowed, QBR allowed, and YPC allowed. The Kent State offense has been weak overall, but they showed signs of life last game in scoring 33 points against Eastern Michigan. Now, they face the worst defense they have played all season.

These are two really bad teams, but I think the two defenses are so bad that there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers defense has been very weak so far this year. They are 95th in success rate allowed. They rank 129th in tackling grade at PFF. The Chanticleers have faced Virginia and Old Dominion in their last two games. Virginia rolled up 525 yards and 43 points. A bad Old Dominion offense put up 462 yards and 37 points on the Chanticleers. 

James Madison has been excellent on offense this year. The Dukes are coming off a rare poor offensive performance against an upstart UL Monroe team. I think James Madison can get it back going again in this matchup. The Dukes are 30th in yards per play this year. They are 22nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. Alonza Barnett is a great dual threat at quarterback and I expect him to have a big game here.

Coastal Carolina has a good offensive scheme. The Chanticleers put up 45 points on a pretty good Old Dominion defense this past weekend. They had 6.7 yards per play against Virginia in the previous game as well. 

James Madison really hasn't faced many good offenses. They played Charlotte with half the 49ers team injured. They played Gardner Webb. They played Ball State. Even with this weak schedule of opponents, the Dukes rank 98th in tackling grade this year.

James Madison plays at a pretty quick pace and I like both offenses to have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have loads of injuries on offense. Rashee Rice was injured this past Sunday and he will miss significant time with what appears to be a major knee injury. Rice had been Patrick Mahomes' favorite target by a wide margin this year. Pacheco is still out for the Chiefs as is Hollywood Brown. 

On the Saints side, Kamara is playing with injured ribs. Chris Olave has an injured foot. Taysom Hill was banged up too. The offensive line is badly banged up. The Chiefs defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here.

Steve Spagnuolo is an excellent defensive coordinator who will put a lot of heat on Derek Carr. Carr is good with time, but under pressure looks very poor much of the time. 

Dennis Allen is a defensive minded coach and his teams games have gone under the total at a rate higher than 56% in his time in the league.

The Chiefs have been a very good under team when they are favored, especially playing at home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has been the best defense in the NFL so far this season. Early in the season it was easy to doubt them, but the Broncos have proven it now in multiple spots. They held a pretty good Jets rushing attack to just 64 rushing yards last week. They held Tampa Bay to 7 points two weeks ago. They held the Jets to 9 points last week.

Denver plays at a slow pace on offense and they don't take many shots down the field with Bo Nix. Nix had only 60 yards passing on 25 pass attempts last week. The Broncos are 29th in the NFL in yards per play.

Las Vegas held Cleveland to just 4.2 yards per play last week. The Raiders offense has been inconsistent at best. They don't have enough threats down the field. 

I see this as a buttoned up game where there a lot of runs and short passes. Three Denver games in a row have stayed under this very low total. I think this will be a fourth straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an over team. Texas Tech is playing at a top 15 tempo in the country. They are also throwing it on 55% of their offensive plays. Behren Morton is more than capable of throwing a pick six with some of the dangerous throws he makes, but he will also impress with some great ones. Tahj Brooks is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. 

Arizona's Noah Fifita is an excellent quarterback. He makes good decisions and has a 90.0 PFF passer rating so far this year, which is excellent. He has one of the best wide receivers in the country in McMillan, and no one in the Texas Tech secondary has much of a chance of even slowing him down.

These two teams are 15th (Tech) and 4th (Arizona) in explosiveness in the country. There should be a lot of big plays from both offenses. Texas Tech is 115th in explosiveness allowed on defense and Arizona is 49th.

Three of Texas Tech's five games this year have gotten to at least 85 points total. I think this one will be another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level terrible. Ball State is 133rd in the country in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up a mind boggling 8.65 yards per play. Ball State has allowed 39 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

Ball State has allowed a minimum of 34 points in every game this year. Missouri State scored 34 points. Central Michigan scored 37 points. Miami scored 62 points on them. James Madison scored 63 points on them. 

Western Michigan is 112th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in success rate allowed. Ball State has faced some pretty good defenses in Miami and James Madison. Western Michigan is a clear step down from them. I think the Ball State passing attack should be able to do some work here.

Western Michigan's ground attack will be too good for Ball State. Western Michigan is just 28% on 3rd down so far this year, but I expect that to improve. The Broncos have played very good defenses this year. Now, they play arguably the worst defense in the country.

The weather looks good for Saturday here with clear skies forecast and a temperature in the 70's with 4 mph wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been extremely impressed by Northern Illinois on the defensive end this year. Northern Illinois allowed just 286 yards and 4.7 yards per play against Notre Dame. They allowed just 184 yards and 3.4 YPP despite an overtime against Buffalo. They allowed just 171 yards and 3.6 YPP against NC State last weekend.

UMass has struggled offensively because they just don't have enough of a running game. Northern Illinois has an excellent secondary and the Huskies should be in the backfield quite a bit in this one.

The UMass defense is much improved this year. They only allowed 258 yards against a good Toledo offense. They allowed just 349 yards and 5.7 YPP in overtime against Miami last week. 

The pace of this game should be extremely slow. Both teams are slow pace wise and aren't typically very explosive on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders haven't punted in their last two games. Jayden Daniels and this Washington Commanders offense have made it to where Tress Way hasn't been needed in the punting game. Jayden Daniels has been clutch with his throwing ability on the deep ball and using his legs a lot as well. He is the ultimate dual threat quarterback.

Arizona's Kyler Murray is finally fully healthy again too and he is playing much better. It helps him to have improved weapons on the outside. The Cardinals are 9th in the NFL in yards per play so far this season. 

These two defenses are both subpar. There just isn't that much talent on either stop unit. Arizona is 19th in yards per play allowed, but I expect that number to get worse throughout the year as well. Washington is second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bengals put up 7.3 yards per play on them last week.

This one being played in a dome with the total coming down to the key number of 49, I like the value to the over. I see both offenses having big play ability throughout. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be a bunch of tempo in this game. Washington State 13th in tempo in the country. Boise State 41st despite playing from the lead much of the time.

Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the country. Boise State has an unreal six rushing plays of 60 yards or more already this season! They are averaging 8.81 yards per carry. Washington State has had significant trouble defending the run. The Cougars are 107th in the nation in YPC allowed and they have allowed 22 rushes for 10 yards or more already this season.

John Mateer has been good for Washington State. The Cougars have scored 37 points or more in three games already this year. Washington State is going against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Broncos are 78th in success rate allowed and 119th in explosiveness allowed.

These two teams are first (Washington State) and tenth (Boise State) in explosiveness on offense. Both of them are top 40 tempo teams too. A lot of pace and explosiveness in this one. The weather forecast looks great with virtually no wind also.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans are 102nd in the nation in tempo. That is despite the fact that they have been playing from behind a lot this year. UL Monroe is 132nd out of 134 teams in the country in tempo. The Warhawks clearly want to play very slowly. 

UL Monroe has just 3 plays of 30 yards or more this season. This offense isn't explosive at all. Troy is 83rd in offensive success rate. The Trojans are just 100th in rushing play success rate on offense. 

UL Monroe has done a good job keeping everything in front of them. They have allowed only 3 plays of 30 yards or more on defense despite playing Texas and UAB. 

These are two teams who are limited on offense and struggle to punch it in once they get into the red zone. The tempo that this game will be played at means there shouldn't be very many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes lost two quarterbacks for the season in last week's game against Penn State. Ulatowski will start here because he really is the only option. Ulatowski has been dealing with a finger injury too, and he isn't 100 percent healthy. Even when everyone is healthy this is a terrible offense. Kent State averages 1.67 yards per carry on the season. The Golden Flashes have no explosiveness. They have only 7 plays of 20 yards or more in four games.

Eastern Michigan is typically a conservative team who likes to win lower scoring contests under Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 107th in explosiveness in the country, so the Eagles aren't breaking many big gainers either. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 2.90 yards per carry. 

Last year these two met and it was 28-14 with low offensive success rates. I see Kent State being ultra conservative here with no playmakers and a hurt quarterback. Eastern Michigan should play from the lead and slow things down too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes just score 70 points in an epic 70-50 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. James Madison has found a really good quarterback in Alonza Barnett. He can win with him arm or his legs at any time. 

James Madison is 21st in the country in explosiveness on offense. The Dukes have had a nice balance of run and passing success.

Ball State ranks dead last in the country in total defense so far this year. The Cardinals are atrocious against the run. They just allowed Central Michigan to run for 335 yards last game, and the Chippewas aren't a rushing powerhouse by any means. Ball State allowed 34 points against Missouri State (FCS). James Madison should put up a big number here.

Ball State has picked up the pace a bit. They are throwing it around and Kadin Semonza is at least a decent quarterback. They did win big, but James Madison allowed UNC's Criswell to throw for 475 yards.

Ball State is giving up 8.88 yards per play which is just crazy. This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen rushing attack is much more dynamic this year than it was last season. Navy has seen all 3 games go over the posted total. Navy has reached 49 points, 38 points, and 56 points by themselves on offense in their three contests. They are averaging 6.45 yards per carry on the season. Navy ran for 361 yards against Memphis last week in a 56-44 win.

UAB plays at a quick pace. The Blazers are 26th in the nation in tempo. UAB has a solid quarterback in Zeno. They should get some decent chances against a Navy team that is weakest in the secondary. 

UAB defensively is 102nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They were beaten badly on the ground by UL Monroe.

Navy is playing at a faster pace than they have in recent seasons. They aren't breaking any records, but they are no longer playing at an extremely slow pace. Navy already has 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls upset the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday 23-02, but Buffalo couldn't do anything on offense in that game. They finished with just 184 total yards. Buffalo is averaging only 4.5 yards per play on the season. The Bulls are 122nd in the nation in offensive success rate. 

UConn just ran for 421 yards against Florida Atlantic this past weekend. I wouldn't expect a repeat here. UConn only ran for 88 yards against Maryland. They only had 4.6 yards per play overall against Duke. 

Defensively, Buffalo has been elite at preventing big plays. Opponents have only two plays of 30 yards or more all season against the Bulls.

Both of these teams are running the football on about 65% of their offensive plays. Both of these teams have the ability to get into the backfield and get the opposition behind the chains at times. 

A lot of running and the clock moving quickly here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions more than doubled the Tampa Bay Bucs in yardage last week. They just couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They moved the ball well between the 20's. I think Jared Goff and this Lions offense are a tough matchup for Arizona on the fast track here. The Cardinals defense is below average and I think they lack the playmakers in the secondary to keep the Lions quiet throughout this game. 

Arizona looks like a completely different offense this year. It is evident that Kyler Murray is much healthier than he was last year. He looks like a completely different quarterback. It sure helps to add a star wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. James Conner is running it well also.

Both of these teams have coaches who are willing to be aggressive at times on offense in late downs and I think that is a benefit to the over in this game. 

I see plenty of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have made the move to Andy Dalton. If they wanted to be competitive, they had to make the move. Bryce Young was just struggling far too much. We saw the market react by moving toward Carolina and the over as soon as the move was announced. I think that is justified. Andy Dalton is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Gardner Minshew and the Raiders aren't great, but they are good enough against subpar secondaries like Carolina.

This is a very low total for a game with two poor defenses involved. The two teams are both bottom 10 defenses in the league. They are 25th and 27th in the league in yards per play allowed thus far.

Early in the season (September/October) when we see totals of 42.5 or lower in a non divisional game the over has been a great move in the last decade. This particular game is an even stronger over system with this one being played inside at Allegiant Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toledo Rockets just destroyed Mississippi State in Starkville this past weekend. Nothing about their win looked like a fluke. Their offensive was humming. Now, the Mississippi State defense is certainly bad, but it was still impressive for a MAC school against an SEC team.

Western Kentucky brought in backup quarterback Veltkamp last week in their win over MTSU after Finley was injured. Veltkamp went a whopping 27/30 for 398 yards passing and 5 TD's/0 INT's. A ridiculous line. 

On the other side, Western Kentucky allowed a really bad MTSU offense to put up 9.5 yards per play on them. The Blue Raiders were slinging it around in the second half with very little defense at all holding them back. I think Toledo's Gleason will have a lot of success throwing it here.

Toledo's tempo was slower last week because they were blowing out Miss State, but they have generally been top 35 in the nation in tempo. Western Kentucky is 34th in tempo. There should be a lot of possessions in this game with both offenses being pretty explosive as well.

I see the offenses having the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The N Texas defense- it’s nearly impossible to say anything nice about them. Gave up 7.1 YPP to S Bama and 8.3 YPP to Tex Tech. N Texas was an over train last year and I don’t see anything to make me think they are anything different this year. 116th in explosiveness allowed.

Wyoming's offense is bad, but this will be the worst defense they have faced yet. On the other side though, the Wyoming defense is MUCH worse than expected. They allowed 6.8 YPP against BYU. They allowed 7.0 YPP against Arizona State even though the Sun Devils shut it down in the 4th quarter. We aren’t accustomed to seeing bad Wyoming defenses, but it looks like this group is weak.

Chandler Morris is an over quarterback. He will hit some big gainers but could throw a pick six at any time.

Another plus in this one is the game time temperature of 92 degrees. Those very hot temperatures have been good to over bettors in the past. The defenses can have a tough time tackling in the heat.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. They are going to get a lot of plays off and very quickly. Liberty plays at about an average pace, but they are well known for their explosive plays with Salter at quarterback and Chadwell as a bright offensive mind at coach.

East Carolina has had major trouble with turnovers and red zone efficiency on offense this year. If those can regress toward the mean, the Pirates have the ability to score a lot of points with the pace they are playing at. Liberty's biggest weakness by far is their secondary, and East Carolina is going to throw the ball early and often.

East Carolina is good on the defensive front, but the Pirates secondary can be beaten. I expect Salter to be able to create some plays with his legs and his arm in this one.

I had this number a good amount higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Colorado State was shut out by Texas which is at least somewhat understandable. They were also held to only 9 points by Colorado, and the Buffaloes defense is only mediocre. 

Tory Horton is reportedly doubtful for this game. Horton is easily the best player on this Colorado State offense, and with him slowed down or not playing at all, this offense isn't even close to the same. Fowler-Nicolosi is still young and the running game hasn't been consistent. 

UTEP is 108th in the nation in yards per play on offense. They haven't had much of an identity on offense so far this year. The Miners only put up 10 points on Liberty and could only score 24 against Southern Utah in an overtime game.

These two offenses are near the bottom of the nation in explosiveness on the season thus far.

The weather on Saturday in Fort Collins is notable too. The current average of four weather forecasts calls for 18 mph winds with gusts of about 33 mph during this game. There is a chance for showers as well. This kind of wind can really change a game and make the play calling more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have a new coach in Pete Lembo. He is a defensive minded coach, and Buffalo's secondary is a clear strength. The Bulls still have to find an identity on offense though. 

Buffalo is terrible on the offensive line. The Bulls also have big weaknesses at both the quarterback and running back positions. The overall lack of talent on this offense is striking. Buffalo scored 0 against Missouri earlier this year. They just scored 34 against UMass, but had just 5.2 yards per play in that game. 

Northern Illinois is coming off that huge win at Notre Dame. I'm really impressed with the coaching staff of the Huskies and their strength on the defensive line. Northern Illinois plays at a slow pace. They are 107th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Both of these teams run the ball about 64% of the time on offense. There should be a lot of moving clock and I wouldn't expect many possessions in this game. 

I think both defenses can prevent the explosive plays quite well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs have major cluster injury issues in the secondary. They have four defensive backs injured. The Bucs secondary has some pretty good pieces to start with, but they lack depth. I think that will show in this one. 

Detroit has the weapons to take advantage of this weakness especially on the fast track in Detroit. Jared Goff with St. Brown and Sam Laporta and company should have a big game here. The Lions also have a good running attack. Detroit has great balance as an offense.

The Tampa Bay offense put up 37 points last week. Baker Mayfield has talked about feeling great in new OC Liam Coen's scheme. The Bucs have really underrated weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is a star and is a tough cover for anyone. Godwin is more of a possession receiver, but he comes up with big plays. White is an explosive back too. 

The Lions defense really struggled with this Bucs offense in the playoffs last year. That game went over this total. This game means less and with the new rules in the NFL the scoring should be a bit higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different type of team under Jeff Lebby this year. Their goal is to play as quickly as possible and be aggressive on offense. They'll look to throw it around quite a bit. Blake Shapen is a good fit at quarterback for this system. 

Toledo lost a superstar defensive back in Quinyon Mitchell from last year. The Rockets secondary is much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. Toledo is without star LB Gant from last year too. 

Toledo has a good quarterback in Gleason and a really good group of wide receivers. The Rockets should be able to move the ball against a Bulldogs defense that is way down from a year ago as well. 

Both of these teams are ranked in the top 18 in the country in terms of pace of play. There should be a bunch of possessions here.

There is a small chance of some rain during this one, but the winds are very minimal and that is the key. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers just lost 32-6 to ULM last week in an embarrassing performance. UAB's defense is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed, and their two opponents played have been Alcorn State and ULM. That's a very weak schedule of rushing attacks. 

Arkansas is coming off a heartbreaking double OT loss against Oklahoma State. Still, the Razorbacks offense showed us a lot in that game. Arkansas put up 648 yards of offense and 7.0 YPP. Taylen Green looks great in Petrino's offense. Arkansas is playing very quickly too. There is no reason to believe UAB can even slow them down in this game.

The Arkansas defense is susceptible against the pass, and I think Zeno and company can do some work through the air here. UAB is a top 30 tempo team, and they will be pushing for extra possessions in this one.

This number has dipped a couple points, and at this number I have to go with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing much faster this year. They are running the air raid and pushing the pace to the extreme. They are 4th in the nation in tempo. East Carolina has turned the ball over quite a bit in opponent territory so far this year, but they have been moving the ball well. East Carolina had 466 yards of offense against a pretty decent Old Dominion defense last week. 

Appalachian State just gave up 66 points to Clemson last week. Cade Klubnik went 24/26 passing against this secondary. They'll look much better in this game than that, but there are troubling signs for the Mountaineers defense overall. 

Appalachian State's offense is excellent in the passing game with Joey Aguilar. They have the best wide receivers in the Sun Belt, and they'll be very tough covers for East Carolina. They are 28th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

These two teams played last year and Appalachian State won 43-28. Now, East Carolina is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. 

I think this total is set too low by a good amount. Look for a lot of passing and a fast pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I would expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to play slowly, and be very run heavy compared to the average NFL team this year. Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith who will lean on the running game. I don't think the running game will be very efficient either. Russell Wilson isn't a good quarterback at this stage of his career either.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a major injury and didn't play any in the preseason. He is likely to have some rust. The Steelers defense is a really tough one to go up against when they are healthy, as they are right now. 

The Falcons defense upgraded by getting Judon in the offseason and locking in two very good safeties. 

I expect this to be slower paced and without fireworks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Washington State won 70-30 over Portland State last weekend. John Mateer was in a tight quarterback battle with Cam Ward before last year, and Washington State is in pretty good shape at quarterback with him and Eckhaus both in the fold this year. Mateer threw for 352 yards and 5 TD's on just 17 attempts. Washington State put up a whopping 12.5 yards per play in week one.

Texas Tech won 52-51 in overtime over Abilene Christian in week one. They allowed 615 yards to FCS Abilene Christian. This Red Raiders secondary lost a ton from last year, and they allowed more than 500 passing yards to Abilene. 

Ben Arbuckle is a great offensive coordinator and I think Washington State will be ready with tempo and a ton of deep looks down the field against this weakened Texas Tech secondary.

On the other side, Washington State allowed 30 points against Portland state, and this Cougars defense is down a lot from last year. They are bad against the run and Tahj Brooks is a really underrated running back for Texas Tech. Morton is a good passer who should have a big game here.

Who's going to get stops? I don't think there will be very many.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense looked like a well oiled machine against Chattanooga last week. Yes it was Chattanooga, but the Mocs are actually a pretty decent FCS team. Nico Iamaleava is a budding star at quarterback. The Volunteers were winning so big that he didn't play a large portion of the game, but when he was in he looked fantastic. Remember, it was Nico who carved up an amazing Iowa defense in the bowl game last year.

Tennessee vowed to play tempo to the extreme this year, and they played ridiculously fast in game one. They averaged just 19.44 seconds between plays, and that is with slowing down some late with a huge lead. They'll push the tempo here.

NC State struggled with Western Carolina. NC State's defense was very poor in that game. In fact, Western Carolina ran for 6.32 yards per carry in that game. Tennessee's offensive line is very good and I think they'll clear quite a few holes here.

The weakness of the Tennessee team is their secondary. The Volunteers will give up big plays through the air. That's exactly where I think McCall and the NC State offense can have success. With NC State likely playing from behind here, I expect them to throw it around and hit some big ones against this Volunteers secondary.

I like both offenses chances of moving the ball a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes and Arkansas State Red Wolves both want to play fast. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game with both teams running their uptempo offense. 

Tulsa put up 62 points on Northwestern State in game one. Francis played very well at quarterback. Arkansas State allowed 7.1 yards per play against Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves defense appears to still have major problems this season.

Arkansas State has a star quarterback in Jalen Raynor. Raynor has good WR's to throw it to, and this Tulsa secondary is a bottom 20 secondary in the country. I think Arkansas State moves the ball well in this one. 

Two defenses who have a history of being weak and giving up a ton of explosive plays. Two offenses who play fast and will take chances down the field. I see a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coming off a shootout game against N Texas. They had 582 yards of offense, but still lost by 14 points. The Jaguars ran tempo for much of the game. They averaged only 22 seconds between snaps- very quick. They ran 84 plays in game one. Gio Lopez looks like a pretty decent QB for this S Alabama system. He threw for 432 yards and ran for 62 on 13 carries. Ohio’s secondary is completely new and they were absolutely torched by McCord and Syracuse last week.

Kane Wommack is a great defensive mind, and him being gone hurts South Alabama in a big way. Ohio had 10 rushes for 10 yards or more in game one against Syracuse. I don't think Syracuse's defense is good, but they are better than the South Alabama defense.

South Alabama should push the pace, and Ohio's defense is no longer the stout unit they were in the past. South Alabama gave up 52 points against North Texas.

I think this total is too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange showed their improvements on offense last week in their 38-22 win over Ohio. Syracuse averaged 6.86 yards per play. The Orange got a good game out of Kyle McCord. Gadsden is an elite tight end and I expect a big season from him. LeQuint Allen is an underrated running back too. 

For as good as the offense looked for Syracuse, the defense looked that bad. They allowed 6.54 yards per carry against an Ohio running attack that I don't expect to be very good. They were gashed by a team that had very little deep passing attack to keep them honest. The worst news of all for Syracuse was their star Marlowe Wax, the team's best defender, was injured and the coaching staff said they expect him to miss a few weeks.

Georgia Tech played very slowly tempo wise in the game against Florida State as part of the game plan, but they played at a normal pace last week. The Yellow Jackets offense is really tough to defend with an excellent OC in Buster Faulkner and a dual threat quarterback in Haynes King. They should get a lot of big gainers on Syracuse.

The Yellow Jackets defense is still a problem. They played a Florida State offense with issues and then a Georgia State offense that is extremely weak. They still are allowing 4.13 yards per carry. This is a defense I don't trust. 

Syracuse pushed the pace in week one and I think they will here too. Georgia Tech's offensive efficiency should continue.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have a terrible offensive line and a subpar quarterback in Cam Fancher. Florida Atlantic is going to struggle badly on offense this year. They put up just 10 points on a Michigan State team that isn't loaded by any means on defense. Florida Atlantic does have a very tough defense with the front seven being a clear strength.

Army used 31 seconds between plays in week one, and they will be one of the slowest paced teams in the country this year. They are expected to be extremely run heavy this year. In their first game, Army attempted 8 passes and ran the ball 46 times. I would expect something similar here unless they get down big early. With the spread inside a field goal, that isn't too likely.

The Army defense could struggle against high powered passing attacks, but Florida Atlantic is definitely not that type of team. 

I think this one will be a tight hard fought battle where the defenses have the advantage. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have played slowly on offense under Poggi. I would expect them to do their best to try to win sloppy low scoring games. The Charlotte defense is the strength of the team. Poggi is a defensive minded coach. Charlotte was able to pick up a bunch of secondary transfers in the portal. The pass defense should improve this season. The defensive line was a solid unit last year and should be again. 

Charlotte lacks the star power at QB/RB/WR to put up a lot of points on hardly anyone. They have some solid TE's and they will use them as much as they can. 

James Madison gets a whole new look this year. Chesney has been a good coach for many years and I like the hire of him. I think it is likely that JMU will want to establish the run with this offense. The wide receivers are a weakness for the Dukes. The James Madison defense is clearly way down from last year, but I still think it is an above average Sun Belt defense. I think they can limit big plays.

I expect a fairly slow tempo for both teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have defensive mastermind Mike Elko as their new head coach. Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the nation. It's also especially interesting in this one because he knows Riley Leonard, the new Notre Dame quarterback, as well as anyone. Leonard was the quarterback for Elko last year at Duke.

I expect the extremely young Notre Dame offensively line to struggle badly against Scourton and the stars on the defensive line for Texas A&M. Notre Dame is unlikely to have much time throw the ball down the field here. I think they'll play things pretty safe on offense.

The Notre Dame defense has stars on the defensive line in Cross and Mills as well. Texas A&M has a new offense to learn and an extremely tough defense to test it out against here. I think the Aggies will play at a slower pace than most teams this year on the whole.

The two defenses have the upper hand here, and the defensive lines have the single biggest advantages. I think it will be tough to move the ball here, and when the teams do move the ball I think they'll settle for field goals pretty often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines still have an absolutely elite defensive line. I think Mason Graham is going to be a major problem for nearly every opponent this year. Michigan should dominate Fresno State's offensive line in this one. Mikey Keene is a solid quarterback, but I don't think he'll have much time at all to throw here. The Fresno State running backs aren't going to have room to run either.

Michigan's offense lost so much from last year. McCarthy was a great leader and he made things happen when the play was busted. I expect Orji to get most of the snaps at quarterback for Michigan here. He's a good scrambler, but I don't know that Michigan trusts him a lot in the passing game yet. Fresno State is an excellent secondary, and I do expect them to make things tough on the Michigan passing attack.

Michigan should play slowly under Sherrone Moore, and I would expect a very run heavy attack. The Wolverines play Texas next weekend in one of the biggest non-conference clashes of the season this year. Why would Michigan put a lot on tape here for Texas to see? The Wolverines should be happy to run the ball and be pretty vanilla on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State is in their first season of FBS action. I expect them to run the ball early and often from their pistol option offensive attack. They should also play very slowly and attempt to reduce the amount of possessions here. 

UTSA should be a little less explosive without Frank Harris at quarterback. The Roadrunners have big games against Texas State and Texas coming up right after this. The Roadrunners are unlikely to show anything too much in a game like this. I think they'll be less likely to want to run up the score than they would in a different situation.

The UTSA defensive line should be too much for the Kennesaw State offensive front that is a clear question mark heading into the season.

UTSA should win comfortably here and I think Kennesaw State struggles to do much scoring at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high.

The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well.

The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. 

A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over.

Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. 

Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses.

Take the over.