*3 Star Play Under* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like the best pitcher in the majors this year. He is in the top 1% of all pitchers in chase rate. He has allowed three runs in his last seven starts combined. Sanchez should pile up the strikeouts here. 

Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a really poor outing against the Athletics on the road, but that is a really tough park for pitchers. He should look a lot better when he is back in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses have been below average against left handed pitching this year. I think both teams will struggle to string together hits in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last seven starts. The Texas offense is below average against left handed pitching.

Boston is a top 6 offense in baseball against left handed pitching, but they are 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is still a very solid right handed starter, and I think he can get through this order pretty well.

Both of these bullpens are pretty solid. The weather is warm here and that's why this total has ticked up, but I like the pitching advantages. The wind is expected to be blowing sideways during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics -1.5* The Athletics lineup should like the Las Vegas home game here. The ball is flying in a big way here. The Athletics have the much more powerful lineup as compared to the Rockies. The A's are tied for 7th in the majors in home runs. The Rockies are 24th in the majors in home runs.

The Rockies are easily last in the majors in wRC+ against left handed pitching. Gage Jump is the expected pitcher here for the A's. I think Jump will be a really good starting pitcher in the big leagues. He has pitched extremely well in limited time so far this season. 

The A's have a hot hitting Kurtz and Rooker is starting to put things together again. The Rockies have been miserable away from home. 

Colorado is set to have a bullpen type game here. The A's have the big edge.

Take the A's -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 23-13 on the road this season. Washington is also second in the majors in OPS against left handed pitching. Washington has several guys who crush lefties. '

San Francisco is 27-41 on the season. The Giants are just 12-18 at home. I think the market is still overpricing the Giants right now.

Robbie Ray is in the bottom 16% of all pitchers in expected ERA. He no longer gets the high chase rates that he did a few years ago. 

Foster Griffin has better overall numbers than Ray. The Giants have been pretty good against lefties, but they aren't as elite as the Nationals in that area.

The Nationals hit the ball well and I think they should be small favorites here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 22-13 on the road this season. Washington averages the most runs per game of any team in the majors. Adrian Houser starts for the Giants, and he has been really bad this season. Houser has allowed a .354 wOBA against this Nationals lineup in his career too. Houser ranks in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average and the bottom 12% of all pitchers in expected ERA.

Andrew Alvarez is a high upside lefty for the Nationals. Alvarez has looked pretty good in limited time this season. The Giants offense has been very good of late, but they carry an extremely high batting average on balls in play that time. I still believe the Nationals are the better offense. The Nationals have the better starting pitcher here too.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. Atlanta is 23-10 on the road this season. While Grant Holmes isn't a great pitcher, he gives them a clear edge over bulk pitcher Erick Fedde for the White Sox in this one.

Fedde has a 4.94 ERA, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.11. Fedde is backed by a White Sox bullpen that is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball. The Braves lineup has a great .358 weighted on base average against Fedde in a large sample size of 124 at bats. Acuna is 6/19 with 3 home runs against Fedde.

The Braves bullpen is a top five bullpen. The Braves have a top three offense in baseball.

Lay the price here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Phillies bullpen is first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. They are second in SIERA. This bullpen is throwing it really well. The Toronto bullpen is average or below average in all the major advanced statistics in the last 30 days.

Dylan Cease has pitched well this year, but he is coming off an injury. In his rehab start in AAA he allowed five runs in just four innings. He is likely to be on a slightly smaller pitch count than normal here as well.

Zack Wheeler has a 2.31 ERA and a 3.21 expected ERA. He had one bad start and that was against the LA Dodgers. In 81 plate appearances, this Blue Jays lineup has a poor .275 weighted on base average against Wheeler. The Phillies have a .379 wOBA against Cease in 66 plate appearances.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Patrick Corbin has held it together this year a bit better than other seasons in recent past, but the advanced metrics show he still isn't very good. He has a 3.98 ERA and a 5.23 expected ERA. Corbin has an expected batting average that is in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors. Corbin's history against this Phillies lineup is awful. The Phillies lineup has a .430 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed one run in his last 50 innings pitched. He has a great .263 wOBA allowed against the Blue Jays lineup. Sanchez has been superb, and the Blue Jays have struggled badly against lefties all season. 

In the last 30 days, the Phillies bullpen has the best bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. The Blue Jays are 17th in that same metric.

The Phillies offense has the lowest BABIP in the majors in the last 30 days. They are due for some positive regression.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals offense is the real deal. They are first in the majors in runs per game at 5.40 runs per contest this season. Washington is 21-12 on the road so far this season. I think they are a live dog on the road in this one.

Arizona has been great against left handed pitching, but the DBacks are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cade Cavalli is a good young right handed starter. He's striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. I think Cavalli can pitch well in this one.

Soroka has thrown it well for the DBacks this year, but the Nationals are elite against right handed pitching. They have a lot of power, and this is park where home runs are very attainable. 

I'll take the plus money on the underdog with the strong lineup here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas has been the single most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors in the past year. Runs are suppressed here by the park in a big way.

The Cleveland offense is 24th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 26th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom isn't the pitcher he once was, but he is still definitely a good right handed starter. Degrom should be able to avoid those big innings allowed against this Guardians lineup.

Texas is 28th in wOBA at home. The Rangers are 27th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Cantillo can generate quite a few swings and misses, and this Texas lineup strikes out the second most of anyone against left handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers have woke up on the offensive end. Detroit has scored 32 runs in their last four games. This Tigers offense has a low batting average on balls in play for the year and they have finally broken out of a long slump in recent games.

The Seattle Mariners offense is in the top six in the majors in all the primary categories in the last couple weeks. Seattle has been great on the road in recent seasons. 

Miller has been really good this year, but he doesn't pitch deep into games and I do think will regress over time. Montero is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is likely to struggle here.

The weather is a big plus here too. Comerica is a park where the wind blowing out matters a lot. The weather here calls for sustained winds blowing out about 14 mph during this one. There are multiple 60% plus systems toward the over in this situation. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* Can we really trust the Cubs here? The Cubs offense is worst in baseball in recent weeks. J.T. Ginn is an above average pitcher. Ginn is a ground ball pitcher which helps a lot with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field like it is for this game. 

The Athletics are a good offense. This team has been better on the road than they have at home. They have a deep lineup and plenty of power. They are up against Imanaga for the Cubs. He has had major troubles at home with the wind blowing out. Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher and the winds blowing out at Wrigley is a terrible setup for him. 

Imanaga has allowed 20 runs in his last 15 innings pitched. There's no reason to expect him to pitch well here.

The Cubs are overrated here by the oddsmakers, especially given the weather conditions.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like a top two or three pitcher in the majors this year. Sanchez is on an insane run in his last five starts. He hasn't allowed a run in five starts. Sanchez has 39 innings pitched in his last five starts with no runs allowed. He has three walks and 45 strikeouts in those five starts. He has a 1.47 ERA and a sparkling 1.82 FIP this season. 

Walker Buehler is now a below average starting pitcher. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 14% of all pitchers in the majors. Buehler doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point in his career. 

The Padres are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They now face arguably the best lefty in baseball right now.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Eric Lauer is coming off a good start, but he is a really low level starting pitcher. He has a 5.95 ERA and a 6.55 FIP on the season. Lauer ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in baseball in fastball velocity. He also is in the 11th percentile in expected ERA. He is a soft tosser who gives up a lot of hard contact. Lauer has a terrible .387 wOBA allowed against this DBacks lineup.

Mike Soroka is having a good season. Soroka is a pretty good starting pitcher, but he's up against arguably the best offense in baseball. The Dodgers were silenced last night, and I think they'll get the offense back going here. 

These bullpens aren't very good and both are heavily used of late. There will be some key arms not available in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays start Shane McClanahan here. McClanahan is in top form of late. He has allowed 0 runs in five of his last six starts. McClanahan has a long history of being top notch in the first half of the season (2.53 career ERA in the first half compared to 3.98 in the second half of the season). 

Jack Kochanowicz started the season strongly compared to expectations, but he has gotten much worse of late. He has a 6.25 ERA on the road this season. He has an extremely high walk rate, and he has allowed five runs or more in three of this last four starts.

The Rays still are underpriced in general, and I like them in this spot.

Take Tampa Bay -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Parker Messick is an excellent young left handed starter for Cleveland. Boston has been a bottom ten offense in the majors this year. They have hit a bit better of late, but their batting average on balls in play has been very high of late and that should regress.

Sonny Gray has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.66 FIP on the season. Gray has only allowed 5 runs in his last 21 innings pitched. The Cleveland offense is one of the weakest in the majors. The Boston bullpen is top notch.

The weather here matters a bunch as well. The forecast calls for winds blowing in from right field at about 16 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. Those conditions are extremely favorable for the pitchers especially in this ballpark.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Trey Yesavage here. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Yesavage is in the top 1% of all pitchers in expected ERA and the top 2% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average allowed. He combines the rare ability to give up soft contact with the ability to generate a bunch of swings and misses. He has a 2.25 ERA, but his FIP is even better at 1.91. 

Brandon Young has been winning games because Baltimore has had insane run support for him, but Young isn't that good of a pitcher. He has a 3.47 ERA, but his FIP is all the way up at 4.75. He likely won't get the huge run support now with Baltimore going against an excellent starter.

The lineups are similar in wOBA in the last 30 days. Toronto has a big starting pitcher and bullpen advantage.

Take Toronto. 

AL Central Total of Month- *3 Star Play Over* Fedde will be the bulk pitcher for the White Sox. Fedde is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. He routinely has extremely low swinging strike rates. His fastball is getting crushed on a consistent basis. Fedde's walk rate is worse than the league average. He also allows a bunch of hard contact.

Melton is a quality pitcher, but he doesn't go deep into games very often. The Tigers bullpen can't be trusted.

The White Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. This young lineup is really putting things together and piling up the runs.

The Tigers haven't been hitting very well, but Fedde should give them more opportunities than most pitchers have.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have been elite against left handed pitching. They are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are first in the majors in ISO against lefties. 

Noah Cameron has pitched twice against the Yankees in his short career. Cameron has allowed 14 hits and 13 runs in 9 and 2/3 innings pitched in those two starts. I don't see any reason to trust Cameron to pitch well in this one.

Gerrit Cole was excellent in his first start back last time out. Cole has allowed a .167 batting average against this Royals lineup. Cole is backed by a rested bullpen who should do their job well in this one too. 

I'll take the plus money on the run line.

Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star Play DBacks ML* Eduardo Rodriguez has been dialed in nicely of late. He has allowed a total of 4 runs in his last four starts. He hasn't allowed a home run in any of those last four starts. 

The Giants have a weighted on base average of just .298 against left handed pitchers this year and that is with a high batting average on balls in play of .311. San Francisco doesn't have many good hitters against lefties.

Tyler Mahle's velocity is down, and he's not getting many swings and misses.

The DBacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The lineup for Arizona is much more potent than the Giants lineup.

Take Arizona here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a top three hitters park in the majors. Aaron Civale is a pitch to contact type pitcher. Civale is in the bottom 16% of pitchers in expected batting average. His strand rate is high and his profile screams regression toward the mean coming. 

Luis Castillo has been dreadful this year. His average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball. The Athletics lineup has hit him well in the past, and that should continue here. Castillo has a 6.41 ERA on the year. He has been really weak on the road in recent seasons, and this is a really tough test.

The A's have a top 6 or 8 offense in the majors, and the Mariners have been good offensively on the road in recent seasons.

The wind is expected to be blowing out about 14 mph in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs start Imanaga in this one, and there isn't a pitcher in baseball who is more dependent on what the weather forecast is like at his home park. Imanaga has been amazing at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, but he struggles badly with the wind blowing. The winds are expected to be blowing in around 10 mph during this one, and the temperature won't be particularly warm in Chicago either. The weather is helpful to the pitchers here. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored a grand total of 7 runs in their last five games. The Cubs have been in a terrible slump. Peter Lambert has been solid all season. He has a 3.57 ERA and a 3.30 FIP. 

The Astros offense ranks bottom five in the majors in the last couple weeks. 

Wrigley Field's weather matters a lot, and I like both starters to have success.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants have played in six straight games that have reached at least eight runs. San Francisco's pitching staff has been awful of late, and Adrian Houser has arguably been the worst starting pitcher for them this year.  He gets a turn in the rotation again here.

The Chicago White Sox have been hitting the ball really well in recent weeks. They have seen 8 of their last 10 games reach at least eight runs total. The White Sox offense ranks in the top ten in all major categories in recent weeks. 

Hudson will open here for the White Sox, but Fedde is the bulk pitcher. Fedde is a pitch to contact guy who rates very lowly in the advanced metrics. Houser is in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed.

Both bullpens are below average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Pirates ML* Patrick Corbin started the year pitching pretty well, but his level has slipped a lot in recent weeks. Corbin is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed this season. He's in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He is in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in whiff percentage. He still gives up hard contact, but he no longer gets the swings and misses he got a few years ago.

Paul Skenes has had two bad starts this year. Skenes has been absolutely dominant in the rest of his starts. Skenes is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball today. He has an expected ERA in the top 2% of all pitchers in baseball. Skenes has one walk and 45 strikeouts in his last six starts. 

The Pirates are a game above .500 on the road, and this is a massive starting pitching advantage. I think the price is too cheap.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Athletics ML* The San Diego Padres are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching, and it isn't close. The Padres have a terrible .265 wOBA against left handed pitching this season. Springs is an above average left handed starting pitcher. He has solid numbers this year despite pitching in Sutter Park a bunch. In his road games, Springs has a 3.04 ERA this season. I think he can have success against this San Diego offense.

The Athletics are 16-12 on the road. They are fourth in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Walker Buehler is in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed. Buehler is at best an average right handed pitcher right now. 

The A's are unquestionably the better offense and they have the better starting pitcher too. The Padres have a great bullpen for sure, but the price here is too good for me to pass up on the underdog.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cam Schlittler and Trey Yesavage are two of the best young pitchers in baseball. Schlittler ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in walk percentage and in chase percentage. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 1.82 FIP. He has allowed one run or less in seven of ten starts this season.

Yesavage pitched great down the stretch last year, and he has picked up right where he left off. Yesavage has a 1.40 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his four starts this season. He ranks in the top 10% of all of baseball in whiff percentage and top 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed.

The Blue Jays offense is bottom five in the majors in the last 30 days. The Yankees offense is a good one, but they have slumped a bit of late and are middle of the pack in the last two weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with five total runs or fewer. Boston's offense is in a terrible slump, but the pitching staff has been throwing it pretty well.

Ranger Suarez has allowed 0 runs in his last three outings combined. Suarez has great control and induces a lot of soft contact. The Royals offense is a below average offense on the whole.

Kansas City will primarily have a bullpen game here. Their bullpen is pretty fresh so that helps in this spot.

The weather here is a plus for the under. A temperature of around 60 degrees with winds blowing in at about 10 mph from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field on Monday night. A temperature around 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 13 mph with gusts up to 20 mph or so will help the hitters.

Brandon Sproat has a 5.75 ERA and a 5.73 FIP on the season. The Cubs have a top three lineup in baseball. This is likely to be a really tough test for Sproat. 

Shota Imanaga has pitched well this year, but he is very dependent on the weather conditions at home. There has been several cases already this year where the wind was blowing in and it helped him immensely. He is a fly ball guy who has struggled with home run issues at home. The Milwaukee lineup has torched him with William Contreras leading the way.

With these conditions and starters, I expect a higher scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.85 expected ERA. He had one bad start at the beginning of the year, and he has been the best pitcher in baseball since then. Skenes has 0 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last five starts. He has allowed just a .081 batting average against the Phillies lineup in his career.

Zack Wheeler is back healthy and dealing. Wheeler has allowed just one home run in his four starts so far this year. Wheeler has a 2.55 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. He has tremendous numbers against this Pirates lineup. In 129 plate appearances, the Pirates have hit .175 against him with a terrible .238 wOBA.

This has the makings of a low scoring great game thanks to two elite starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zack Littell is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. He has thrown 36 and 1/3 innings this year. He has a brutal 6.94 ERA, but his expected ERA is 7.60 and his FIP is 8.25. He has allowed a whopping 14 home runs already this year. He only has 17 strikeouts. 

The Baltimore Orioles lineup has been inconsistent, but they have struggled with strikeouts and Littell is a guy they should be able to get some good at bats against.

The Washington offense has been very good this year. There is some impressive young talent on the Nationals roster. Shane Baz is in the bottom 22% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is prone to giving up the big inning. 

The Orioles bullpen is mediocre at best and the Nationals are a bottom three bullpen in baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers take on the Mets on Wednesday night. Citi Field has quietly been a park where the weather matters a lot, and the winds here should be a big story. 

The forecast calls for winds of 21 mph at start time with gusts of 30 mph. Those winds are expected to be blowing out toward left center field. The hitters from both teams will be helped significantly by these conditions.

Framber Valdez hasn't been on point this year, and he is rusty. The Mets offense is inconsistent, but they do have some power.

Scott is a good youngster,  but he carried high home run rates allowed through the minors. The Tigers could take advantage of this weather against him.

At this low of a number, I'll go to the high side.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Rays have the best record in the American League, and they are just half a game off the best record in baseball (Braves). Tampa Bay sends Shane McClanahan to the mound in this one. McClanahan has allowed zero runs in three straight starts. He has a really high upside, and the Blue Jays offense has been inconsistent all year.

Patrick Corbin has decent numbers this year, but the advanced metrics here paint a clear picture of a pitcher due for regression. Corbin is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average and bottom 7% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA. His whiff rate is way down, and he is still giving up a lot of hard contact.

The Rays have the better lineup here, and they have a huge starting pitching edge. At this price, I have to take Tampa.

Take the Rays. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Baltimore Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Baltimore has been a big disappointment this season. The Athletics were great on the road late last year, and they are 13-10 on the road so far this season. They are now in first place in the AL West division too.

Luis Severino isn't a good starter, but on the road his numbers have been so much better than at home. He is bad at Sutter Park, but on the road he is a decent pitcher.

Chris Bassitt has nearly as many walks as strikeouts so far this season. He is 37 years old and is clearly past his prime.

The Athletics are 3rd in the majors in wOBA in the last seven days. The Orioles are 19th. The Athletics crush right handed pitching. 

The much better lineup at a good price.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics offense started the season slowly, but they are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They are hitting for power and this group is a patient bunch at the plate. 

The Orioles are 14th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Baltimore is starting to find their power of late as well.

Aaron Civale has a 2.95 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.22 this season. He's giving up much more hard contact this year, but he has been stranding a small army on base. That should regress toward the mean. Civale is in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate and hard hit rate.

Shane Baz is a really inconsistent pitcher. Baz is prone to giving up the big inning. Baz has had poor command this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Minnesota Twins started the season out hot, but they have come crashing back down to earth. Minnesota is 6-12 on the road. The Twins have a bottom three bullpen in the majors. 

Connor Prielipp is a good young lefty, but he hasn't pitched deeper than five innings in any of his three starts. The Twins bullpen is much worse than the Guardians bullpen.

Parker Messick has tremendous stuff, and he has great advanced stats to match his great ERA so far this season. Messick ranks in the top 2% of all pitchers in the majors in pitching run value. He is in the top 11% of all pitchers in average exit velocity. He ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in chase rate.

There is some rain in the area for this game which would make the bullpens even more important. The Guardians have a clearly above average bullpen with solid depth.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-1 in their last 12 games. Shane McClanahan has been finding his form of late. We know he is capable of dominating, and in his last two starts he has 11 innings pitched and no runs allowed. In his career, McClanahan's single best month by a large margin has been the month of May. This is a guy who has a very high upside with his command and his overall stuff. 

Patrick Corbin has seen better than expected results so far this season, but his advanced stats still look poor. Corbin is in the bottom 16 percent of all pitchers in the league in expected ERA and in the bottom 14 percent of all pitchers in the league in expected batting average allowed. 

The Rays pitching staff has been elite of late, and I don't trust Corbin to match their performance in this one. I think this price is too low.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Baltimore Orioles were beaten up by the Yankees in New York last night. They make the long trip to Miami here, and this is another difficult spot for Baltimore.

Sandy Alcantara isn't quite in his vintage form from a few years ago, but he has been pitching pretty well this year. He has electric stuff and has brought his average exit velocity allowed down quite a bit.

Chris Bassitt is 37 years old and appears to be past his prime. He has a 5.46 ERA and a 5.15 FIP. Bassitt isn't missing bats this year.

Baltimore is dead last in the majors in run differential on the road. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have Cam Schlittler on the mound here. Schlittler is quickly turning into one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 1.51 ERA and a 1.54 FIP in his seven starts so far this season. Schlittler has allowed 0 earned runs in 4 of his 7 starts. He's up against a Baltimore lineup that has really struggled with consistency this year. They swing and miss a lot.

Shane Baz has a really rough history against this Yankees lineup. Baz has poor road splits as well.

The Yankees are second in the majors in run differential. The Orioles are 26th in the majors in run differential.

This sets up well for a run line wager.

Take Yankees -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Guardians ML* Parker Messick is one of my favorite young pitchers. Messick has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.31 FIP this season. Messick has been consistently tremendous this year. While Sutter Park is a home run friendly park, Messick has allowed only 1 home run in 36 and 1/3 innings pitched. Messick is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. Messick is in the top 5% of all pitchers in chase rate. 

The Athletics are bottom eight in the majors against left handed pitching this year. They are much better against right handed pitching.

Aaron Civale is a subpar starting pitcher. Civale is in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in average exit velocity allowed. Civale is in the bottom 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed.

The Guardians have a clear starting pitching advantage, and they have the deeper bullpen as well. 

I like the price here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* McGreevy has pitched well so far this year for the Cardinals, but there are clear signs of regression. He has a 2.97 ERA and a 6.16 expected ERA. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in baseball. He pitches to contact, and this Dodgers lineup is a stacked lineup full of left handed power hitters. 

Roki Sasaki is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in expected ERA and the bottom 18% of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, and the Cardinals offense has been good this year led by Jordan Walker's breakout season.

I think this total is set too low given the shaky starters and the strong offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin has a terrible .425 weighted on base average allowed in 87 plate appearances against this Minnesota Twins offense. The Twins are much better offensively against left handed pitching. Corbin has been a bit better so far this year, but he is in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and batting average allowed. 

Simeon Woods Richardson has an ugly .518 weighted on base average allowed against the Blue Jays lineup in 60 plate appearances. Woods Richardson is in very poor form this year too. He is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. The Blue Jays are a bit healthier than they were earlier this year.

Both of these starting pitchers are below average and are capable of giving up quite a few runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Severino has had a terrible time pitching at Sutter Park in Sacramento. Severino has a 6.15 ERA in 93 and 2/3 innings pitched at Sutter Park. He has a very high 1.537 WHIP when pitching at Sutter Park. Severino is walking 6.03 batters per nine innings so far this year. He hasn't been sharp to start the season, and only two of his six starts have been at home.

Michael Wacha appears due for regression. He carries a good ERA, but his expected ERA is in the bottom 37 percent of all pitchers in the majors. He is giving up much harder contact than he did last season.

Wacha and Severino have both been hit pretty hard by the opposing lineup. Both bullpens have been stressed some with extra innings yesterday and not many starters going deep into games before that contest.

The A's lineup is top ten in the majors against right handed pitching. The Royals lineup is 15th in the majors against right handed pitching.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs will go up against Walker Buehler here on Tuesday night. Buehler made one really good start this year and that was at home against the Rockies lineup. Colorado has notoriously been very weak hitting on the road in recent years. Here he is up against a Cubs offense that is top five in the majors.

Buehler is in the bottom 14% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average allowed. He doesn't pitch deep into the game either. That's important since both Miller and Morejon have both pitched a lot lately for the Padres bullpen. The Padres bullpen is good, but it is definitely top heavy.

Edward Cabrera is an above average starter and he gives the Cubs a pitching advantage here. Cabrera has a 2.73 ERA and a 3.63 FIP on the season. He has good velocity and chase rates. 

The Padres offense has been inconsistent, while the Cubs have been very good on offense this season.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Athletics start Aaron Civale here. He is a pitch to contact type of guy. Civale has had one start in Sacramento so far this year, and he was shelled by the weak Chicago White Sox offense. The Royals aren't necessarily a great offense, but they come into this one with some momentum, and they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

While the Athletics have been really good against right handed pitching, they are all the way down at 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching. He has only been average this year, but Bubic has a higher upside than does Civale.

The A's don't have much of a home field advantage in Sacramento. I like the road team here.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are the top two offenses in baseball against left handed pitching, and it isn't very close. 

Imanaga has pitched at home in some very helpful weather conditions this year with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. He's a fly ball pitcher, and he is up against a Dodgers team with great power against lefties. The weather here is calling for winds blowing out about 12 mph at Dodger Stadium, and the power hitters get a boost in these conditions.

Wrobleski is just 22nd percentile in expected batting average and in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in strikeout rate. The Cubs should get traffic on the bases here. 

The bullpens have been worked pretty hard lately as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers start Jacob Misirowski in this one. He has drastic splits in his young career. Misiorowski has a 3.23 ERA at home and a 4.99 ERA on the road. He also has a 2.92 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.32 ERA in the second half of the season. He is in the 88th percentile of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed so far this season.

The Pirates lineup has an .087 batting average against Misiorowski in a small sample size. Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates, and the Brewers and Milwaukee has a great .376 weighted on base average in 112 plate appearances against Keller.

The Brewers have typically been a good home team, and the Pirates have been dreadful away from home in recent seasons. Skenes shut down the Brewers yesterday, but I like them to get it going enough to win here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes had a really bad opening day start. He has allowed a grand total of three runs in four starts since that opening day dud. Skenes is still an absolute star, and he'll dominate opposing lineups more often than not. Skenes has held this Brewers lineup to a .163 batting average in a small sample size. 

Brandon Woodruff has allowed just a .190 batting average against this Pirates lineup in his career. Woodruff doesn't walk many batters at all, and he has been really consistently strong for Milwaukee.

This has the feel of a low scoring tight game the whole way. 

Pittsburgh carries a high .305 batting average on balls in play and their lineup should regress a bit in the coming weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fuentes steps in for Perez here. Fuentes is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, and the bullpen for Atlanta is taxed in a huge way right now.

The Atlanta Braves rank second in the majors in weighted on base average overall. Atlanta is one of the best offenses in the majors thanks in large part to their power and the depth of their lineup. The Washington Nationals are 8th overall in that same statistic, but the Nationals are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Zack Littell is in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. Littell has allowed 7 home runs in just 19 innings pitched. The current Braves lineup has a .378 wOBA against him. The Nationals bullpen is also one of the worst in the majors.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin is way past his prime. Corbin has an expected ERA in the bottom 5% of all pitchers this year. Corbin also has a bottom 25% exit velocity allowed despite having a fastball that is much slower than the league average. 

The Angels are a top eight offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Guys like Soler, Adell, and Trout have been excellent against left handed pitching. 

Jack Kochanowicz has been better so far this year, but I still see him as a weak starting pitcher. He has one of the highest walk rates in the majors. He also doesn't induce many swings and misses.

The bullpens here are pretty weak also. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have been a tremendous over team this year. The Nationals young lineup is starting to mature and they have turned in some great performances. Abrams and Wood are crushing the baseball right now. They have some other even younger guys who are hitting the ball well also. The Nationals pitching staff and bullpen are bottom five in the majors. 

Miles Mikolas has a very high walk rate, and his strikeout rate has always been very low. Mikolas is far past his prime. He has a 11.49 ERA on the season thus far.

Robbie Ray has good numbers this year, but he has a very low .180 BABIP allowed this year and that will regress toward the mean in time. He is also past his prime.

The Nationals have seen 17 of their 21 games this year go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Taijuan Walker ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He also ranks in the bottom ten percent in whiff percentage. The Braves have scored 6 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Atlanta's lineup is deep, and they should give Walker a lot of trouble here.

Martin Perez has good numbers this year, but his batting average on  balls in play allowed is a ridiculously low .190. That should regress to the mean. Perez is way past his prime and this Phillies lineup has crushed him in the past. Bohm and Turner have led the charge against him. The team overall has a .356 wOBA against Perez.

I would expect a bunch of baserunners on the base paths in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Guardians ML* Parker Messick is quickly becoming an excellent starting pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians. Messick doesn't allow much hard contact, and he has good command of all of his pitches. Messick has allowed one run in three starts this season. He has a chase rate in the top 10% of all pitchers in the majors.

Shane Baz is extremely inconsistent. He is certainly capable of pitching shut down baseball, but he has struggled with big innings allowed for much of his career.

The Guardians bullpen rested up well yesterday, and their best arms are ready for this one. There is a chance this one gets rain delayed, so having a rested bullpen that is one of the best in baseball is very helpful.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Gil was in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA last year. He was in the bottom 2% in walk rate. Gil is at best a middle of the road pitcher.

Jack Kochanowicz was in the bottom 3% of the league in expected ERA and expected batting average last year. He was in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in average exit velocity allowed. Kochanowicz has a good ERA in three games this year, but his advanced metrics are still very poor. He walks a bunch of guys and gives up way too much hard contact.

The Yankees offense is going to be very good. They have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play in the majors. The Yankees are third in ISO against right handed pitching. The Angels have a poor bullpen as well backing up Kochanowicz. 

The Angels offense has been above average on the season thus far.

It is expected to be warm with a little bit of wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians are the much better team of these two. I think St. Louis will be pretty far down this season. The Cardinals offense can do some damage at times, but the starting rotation and the bullpen are a mess. The fan base is no longer heavily invested here, and the Cardinals are in for a down period unless something drastic changes. 

Cleveland did use some key bullpen guys today, but they have much more bullpen depth than the average team. The Guardians start Joey Cantillo here. He is a guy who has good command and can induce softer contact. He has taken some nice steps in the past year. 

McGreevy has potential as well, but he is prone to giving up the big inning at times.

The weather here calls for the wind blowing out heavily. I trust the Guardians pitching staff more.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* Gavin Williams is a high quality starting pitcher. Williams has an expected batting average allowed this year that is in the 95th percentile in baseball this season at .152. He has consistently had a very high whiff rate in the last couple years. Williams has a breaking run value in the top 4 percent of all pitchers in baseball. He has excellent stuff.

Liberatore is in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in breaking run value. He is in the bottom 12 percent of all pitchers in expected batting average. 

The Cardinals are way down from previous season, and I think they are overvalued in the betting marketplace right now.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are 20th and 19th in the majors in batting average on balls in play against right handed pitching. They have both been a bit unlucky so far this season offensively.

Taj Bradley has excellent numbers in a small sample so far this year, but his overall body of work shows his inconsistency and blowup potential at any time. He is prone to big innings, and the Blue Jays lineup has a .340 weighted on base average against him. Vlad Jr. is 7/14 with a home run and a double against Bradley. 

Max Scherzer is a shell of his former self. Scherzer has a terrible .435 wOBA against this Twins lineup too. Josh Bell has 3 home runs and 2 doubles on Scherzer in 16 at bats. 

Both lineups have power and I think they can get some runners on and hit a blast in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has seemed pretty good so far this year, but they have had some tremendous luck. Atlanta has allowed just a .226 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is the lowest BABIP allowed in baseball, and the second lowest is all the way up at .241. 

Parker Messick is a very highly rated prospect for Cleveland, and he is showing why right now. Messick looked good late last year, and now he is dealing to start this season. Messick is a strike thrower who has great spin rates and run values. He has great movement on his pitches. The Cleveland bullpen is still one of the best in the majors.

Martin Perez is far past his prime, and the Cleveland lineup has hit him very well in his career. The Braves bullpen is weaker than the Cleveland bullpen.

I'll take the plus money price here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense is averaging only 2.8 runs per game this season. Cincinnati is winning games on the back of their pitching.

Eury Perez has drastic splits (home/away) in his career. Perez has a 2.54 career ERA at home. He has a 5.03 career ERA on the road. Perez induces a lot of swings and misses, and this Reds lineup will strike out a lot this season.

Brady Singer has given the Reds solid innings in his time with the team. The Marlins have a very high batting average on balls in play rate and I think they will regress a bit on offense in the coming weeks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams rank 19th and 25th in the majors in batting average on balls in play. They have been unlucky so far this year. The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Angels have a decent amount of pop, and they have a history of being good offensively at home in recent seasons.

Kikuchi has started the season in poor form. He is a very streaky pitcher. He has walked five batters in just 9 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. Kikuchi has allowed a pretty high .344 weighted on base average against this Braves lineup in his career.

Lopez has a long history against this Angels lineup, and he has been terrible against. In 105 plate appearances against this group, Lopez has allowed a whopping .421 wOBA. Soler has 13 hits in 22 at bats against him. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Washington* Pallante is one of the worst starters in the majors. He also has a low swinging strike rate. Littell gives up a lot of hits, but he doesn't walk hardly anyone. 

The Nationals are a bad team, but they are a home underdog against one of the worst starters in the majors. I have to look toward the plus money price in this one. 

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing their home games at Sutter Park again. This is clearly a very hitter friendly park. It was second in the majors in highest park factor for runs scored last year (behind only Coors Field). 

Cristian Javier is a really inconsistent pitcher. The A's offense hasn't been good this year, but there is a lot of young talent and I expect them to get things going.

Springs is a mediocre starter for the Athletics. The Astros are good against left handed pitching. 

This game has real potential to be very high scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Ryan is a clearly above average starter who has been good starting out seasons in his career. He has great breaking stuff and is a high strikeout guy. The Royals have a lot of high strikeout batters in their lineup. Ryan has great career stats vs. this Royals lineup. 

The Twins offense is boom or bust with high strikeout guys, but quite a bit of power.

The weather here should matter with winds flipping around and blowing in pretty hard during this game with some potential rain falling as well. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here.

Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Reds ML) The Cincinnati Reds start Brandon Williamson here. Williamson has good stuff and is backed by a bullpen that has some solid depth. The Pirates lineup is one of the weakest in the majors. I think Williamson can navigate his way through this lineup. 

Chandler is a good arm for the Pirates, but the Pirates are likely to struggle to back him with many runs. I don't think the Pirates should be a road favorite against a decent Reds team. 

The Reds aren't being priced as the better team here, and I think they are the better team.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics start Jacob Lopez here. Lopez was one of the most underrated starters in the majors late last season. He does a great job inducing soft contact. 

Bryce Elder has been a subpar starter the last couple seasons. While they haven't really shown it so far, I still think the Athletics lineup is an above average group. I think Lopez is the better starting pitcher of the two here, even if he doesn't have the same name recognition at this point.

This is a game I think is 50/50, and we are getting a pretty nice plus money price.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather is extremely warm for this early in the season in Kansas City. An average temperature of 85 degrees with the wind blowing out here at 18 mph on average during this game. That is very helpful for run production.

Woods Richardson can't pitch deep into games very often, and the Twins bullpen is a mess. They have been used heavily, and they are one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Twins do have some power against left handed pitching. I think they can go deep some in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics have a fantastic young lineup. The Athletics have a lot of power and they are excellent against left handed pitching. Look for the A's to have quite a few scoring chances here, and all it takes is one deep shot with guys on base to potentially put up a big number here. 

The Blue Jays lineup is still fantastic too. The Blue Jays should put a lot of pressure on a youngster like Morales. Morales pitched poorly in Spring Training.

Both bullpens have been extremely heavily used in recent games. Some of the key guys won't pitch here.

Two top six or eight offenses here and a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Texas Rangers won't be underdogs very often with Jacob Degrom on the mound. Degrom has been excellent early in the season throughout his career. He also owns an impressive .215 batting average allowed and .269 weighted on base average allowed against the Phillies lineup in his career. 

The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola here. Nola has a 6.57 ERA in the month of March in his career. He is a good starting pitcher, but his best outings have not come early in the season. He has often struggled with poor control early in the season. 

Texas is an above average team and I'll take the plus money price.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be way down this year. The Cardinals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors. Masyn Winn is their cleanup hitter and they are really lacking in on base percentage type guys at the top of the other as well.

St. Louis starts Liberatore here. While he isn't a bad pitcher, he doesn't have top of the line type stuff either. The Rays do have a couple big bats in the lineup in Caminero and Diaz. 

Drew Rasmussen has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple seasons. Rasmussen had a 1.02 WHIP last year and a 2.76 ERA. He gives them the pitching edge in this one.

The Rays are a mediocre team, while the Cardinals could be a bottom three or four team in baseball.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two of the top three offenses in baseball, and Dodger Stadium is a hitter friendly venue on the whole The shadows here will be talked about and it could be an issue for some of the game, but start times at Dodger Stadium near this time have actually trended toward the over.

Max Scherzer isn't even close to the pitcher he once was, and he has a weakness against left handed hitting now. The Dodgers have elite lefties who are going to make things tough on Scherzer in this contest.

Tyler Glasnow is a good starter, but he doesn't usually pitch as deep in the game as most starters. The Blue Jays should work the count and score some runs here. Both Guerrero Jr. and Springer have had a lot of success against Glasnow in their history. 

I don't trust either bullpen all that much, and I think we'll see plenty of both of them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays had one of the top two or three offenses in baseball this season. Toronto has a bunch of power in the lineup, and they woke up in a big way on Wednesday. George Springer had an excellent season starting things out right for the Jays at the top of the order. He had 3 hits on Wednesday. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk on Wednesday. 

Seattle's lineup is better than average, and they have a lot of home run power also. Max Scherzer starts in this one, and Scherzer has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last six starts. Scherzer hasn't thrown since September 24th, so he is way off his normal schedule. Scherzer was once a dominant starter, but at 41 years old he is far from what he was 5 years ago. 

Luis Castillo has pitched well in recent outings, but he faced a lot of weak lineups during those starts. This is a stacked Toronto lineup.

Hudson is the home plate umpire and he is a hitter friendly umpire. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Mark Wegner has consistently had one of the lowest strikeout/walk ratios in all of baseball. He is one of the most hitter friendly umpires you'll ever find. He is behind home plate for this key game between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cristopher Sanchez is an excellent starter, but the Dodgers offense has heated up nicely of late. Tyler Glasnow has excellent stuff, but I don't think he goes more than five innings or so in this spot, and that means a lot of the Dodgers bullpen which has been weak all season long.

Dodger Stadium ranked as the fourth most hitter friendly park in baseball this year. The ball carries well here during the daytime and this is a 3:08 local time contest. 

These are two really good offenses with a low total and two worn out bullpens. A really big bonus of an over umpire too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jesus Luzardo has shown the ability to get rattled and completely lose command. The Dodgers lineup is arguably the best lineup in baseball, and they are finally like it here lately. They have consistently put up really good offensive numbers in the last 6-8 games. Betts has woken up and that makes it a lot tougher for the opposing starter. 

The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 5.30 runs per game at home this year. This is a hitter friendly park, especially with the weather we see here today. A warm temperature in the mid 70's in October and a slight wind blowing out at about 7 mph here.

Blake Snell is a strong starter,  but the Dodgers bullpen is still a big weakness. The Phillies bullpen has been shaky of late too.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate, and he is a very hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*2 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres bullpen is extremely deep. If Yu Darvish can give them four innings or so in this one, I think the Padres have an advantage and they are an underdog on the moneyline here. 

Darvish has been at his best in the postseason in recent years. He had a 1.98 ERA in the postseason last year, and he has an ERA below 2.5 in 38 and 2/3 innings pitched with the Padres in the postseason from 2022 and 2024 combined.

The Cubs offense has been very weak down the stretch, and I trust the Padres offense led by Tatis and Machado more right now. Kyle Tucker isn't healthy and Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a shell of his former self in the past month. 

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians +1.5* The posted total here is 6. We nearly never see a total set so low, but I completely understand why this one is set so low. The wind is blowing in at about 11 mph in Cleveland. Both pitchers are throwing the ball very well.

Gavin Williams is underrated as a starting pitcher. Williams has allowed a .188 batting average and has a 2.18 ERA in the second half of the season. Williams has dominated this Tigers lineup too. In 138 plate appearances, the Tigers have a .168 batting average and a .230 wOBA against Williams. 

Skubal is terrific, but the Tigers bullpen has been awful in the last couple months. They have been a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, while they are up against the Guardians who have the best bullpen FIP in that time. 

Detroit was bottom six in baseball in all major offensive categories in the last month. Skubal is great, but the team around him hasn't been good. 

I like this to be low scoring, so I'll take the +1.5.

Take Cleveland +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Janson Junk consistently gives up about 3 runs in 5 or 6 innings. He is a mediocre starting pitcher. He's going up against a red hot Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is hitting the ball as well as any team in baseball. They are having very high scoring games of late. In fact, 12 of the Phillies last 14 games have gone above this posted total. 

Walker Buehler is coming off a couple better starts, but the totality of his work is very poor this season. The Miami Marlins offense has been on fire in recent games as well. Miami's young lineup is really producing in a big way late in the season.

The wind is blowing out here and there is some rain in the forecast. The middle relief for both teams is questionable if there is a rain delay.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Stephen Kolek here. Kolek has a 1.67 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last four starts. Kolek has 3 walks/19 strikeouts in those outings and he has allowed 0 home runs. He does a good job inducing soft contact.

Yusei Kikuchi is an up and down pitcher, but his numbers are much better at home. Kikuchi has absolutely dominated this Royals lineup too. Kansas City's lineup has a .192 weighted on base average in 61 plate appearances against him. 

Zach Neto is a key guy at the top of the order for the Angels, and he is out for the season. The Angels bottom of the order is one of the worst in the majors.

Kansas City has been very poor against lefties this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians +1.5* The Cleveland Guardians have won 9 of their last 10 games. The Detroit Tigers have lost 9 of their last 10. Now, we have a huge series between the two that will go a long way to deciding the winner of the AL Central division.

Tarik Skubal is a fantastic starting pitcher. Skubal has been slightly worse in the second half of the season, but he is very solid. The Tigers bullpen is bottom five in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days though, and the Tigers offense has gone ice cold. Skubal's second half ERA is 2.24. 

Cleveland is first in the majors in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days. The Guardians have a deep bullpen that is well rested. Gavin Williams is an underrated starting pitcher too. Williams has a second half ERA of 2.10. He has great movement on his pitches, and he has dominated this Tigers lineup. Williams has allowed a batting average of just .143 in 84 plate appearances against the Tigers.

With such a very low total and runs being at a premium, I'm going to take the +1.5 runline here on the home team.

Take Cleveland +1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians are on a roll right now. They have won 10 straight games and are just one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. It's been an amazing run led by strong starting pitching and excellent bullpen work. Cleveland has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in their last three games. 

The Guardians are also getting some great production from Naylor, Ramirez, and Kwan in recent games. 

The Minnesota Twins are 19-40 since the All Star Break. This team has nothing to play for, and they have been very lackluster of late. Minnesota's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors right now. 

Cantillo starts here for the Guardians and he has been throwing the ball really well lately. Cantillo has a 2.04 ERA in his last six starts.

The Guardians have everything to play for, while the Twins are stumbling toward the finish.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The LA Angels have lost six straight games. They have lost four straight contests by at least two runs. The Brewers have won 9-2 and 9-2 in the first two games of this series. 

Quinn Priester has been rolling right along. He has thrown the ball really well all year, and the Brewers lineup has supported him by providing a bunch of run support. The Brewers are a whopping 18-0 in Priester's last 18 starts. They have won by two runs or more in 13 of those 18 games.

The LA Angels start Kikuchi here, and he has struggled down the stretch. He has an ERA over 5 on the road this year, and Milwaukee has crushed left handed pitching. 

The Angels bullpen is spent and the Brewers have dominated at home all season.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days, and it isn't very close. The Guardians bullpen has been great though. They are first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians had seen 10 of their last 11 games stay under this total before last night's extra innings contest. 

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball well right now, and the Tigers have a terrible .225 wOBA against Williams in 77 plate appearances. 

Jack Flaherty has been up and down this year, but he has great numbers against Cleveland. He has allowed only a .239 wOBA in 89 plate appearances against the Guardians. He has pitched into some bad luck of late, with a FIP that is much lower than his ERA in the past couple months.

A slight wind blowing in here helps too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Paul Skenes here. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.74 ERA in his last 10 starts. Skenes continues to have excellent control and his swinging strike rate is extremely high. He has been very good against this Cubs lineup, and I don't see any reason to expect that to change here.

Cade Horton has a 0.84 ERA in his last 10 starts. Horton has allowed 0 runs in 6 of those 10 starts. He's up against a Pirates lineup that is one of the two or three worst lineups in baseball.

The slight wind that there is in this game is blowing in from left field.

I think this has the makings of a great pitching duel between two elite young starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors for quite some time now. Parker has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.57 FIP in his last eight starts. Parker is giving up 2.5 home runs per nine innings during that time. In Parker's last 16 starts, 12 of them have gone over this total of 9 runs. 

The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Strider. Strider hasn't been looking like his old self. He's walking way too many guys, and the swinging strike rate is down. Strider has a very poor history against the Nationals as well. This Nationals lineup has a .438 weighted on base average against Strider, and he is definitely throwing it worse this year than it he has in his career on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Angels and Marinrs just played a 12 inning game and ruined their bullpens on Thursday night. Both of the starting pitchers in this game have been struggling, and they could struggle to pitch deep into the game.

The Angels are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Mariners are averaging 8 runs per game in their last six games.

Kikuchi starts for the Angels, and he has been crushed of late. In fact, he has a 9.13 ERA in his last five starts. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity for season. Seattle has several guys who have hit him very well. That includes Suarez who has 3 HR's in 12 at bats against Kikuchi.

Luis Castillo has a 7.83 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last five starts. Castillo has allowed 7 home runs in his last five starts. 

The bullpens are 17th and 22nd in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Both have used their best arms heavily in recent games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is a good young pitcher who has been pitching his best late in the season.

The Kansas City Royals are 25th in wOBA for the season. Bobby Witt Jr. is trying to play through and injury and he hasn't been himself of late.

Cleveland is last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have struggled offensively at home all year long. 

Both defenses have been very good at saving runs and that could be key here.

The weather is calling for temperatures in the upper 60's with a light wind blowing in from center field.

Phil Cuzzi is a very good under umpire. The under is 67-44 in Cuzzi's games behind home plate since 2022. He is a strike caller and a very pitcher friendly umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eury Perez is in really poor form of late. Perez has a 8.53 ERA and a 7.41 FIP in his last six starts. He has been giving up a lot of very hard hit baseballs in recent starts. The Nationals just torched him for 7 runs in 4 IP in his last start.

Washington has scored 45 runs in their last six games. The Nationals offense has absolutely caught fire. James Wood continues to hit the ball well, and Josh Bell has had an amazing resurgence in the last couple weeks. 

Jake Irvin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Irvin has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.08 FIP in his last 9 innings pitched. Irvin has been consistently terrible, and he has been even worse away from home.

Both of these pitchers have the potential to give up big innings at any time right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* Spencer Strider has been struggling badly of late. Strider has a 9.13 ERA and a 7.62 FIP in his last five starts. He has just 14 strikeouts in his last 23 and 2/3 innings pitched. Strider now ranks in the bottom 5% in the majors in average exit velocity allowed.

Cade Horton has been really solid in his rookie season for the Cubs. Horton has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. In his last nine starts, Horton has a sparkling 0.77 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last nine starts.

The Cubs have a huge bullpen edge. The Braves bullpen is dead last in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Cubs are top five.

Take the Cubs here. 

*4 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants are 9-1 in their last 10. They have played the best baseball of anyone in the majors in the last couple weeks. The Giants offense has been on fire.

Justin Verlander is quietly throwing the ball well of late. Verlander has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.28 FIP in his last seven starts. Verlander's strikeout rate has gone way up in recent starts. 

Andre Pallante has been getting crushed on a regular basis of late. Pallante hasn't pitched more than 5 and 1/3 innings in his last five starts. He has a 9.82 ERA in those five starts. Pallante has a 5.91 ERA on the year at home too.

The Giants have the better lineup and the better pitcher here. I think the price is too cheap.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jays and Yankees are both top 3 in the majors in nearly every major offensive category in the last 30 days. These are two excellent offenses.

The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium at about 12 mph on a warm day with a high in the mid 80's. The weather conditions are fantastic for an over.

Chris Bassitt is an inconsistent starter, and he has allowed a .376 wOBA against this Yankees lineup in a very large sample size. 

Luis Gil is a middle of the road starter, and the Blue Jays bats are on fire of late. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are still a pretty good offense. The DBacks top of the order is one of the best in baseball. Tolle is a good young pitcher for the Red Sox, but he has flown up through the minors and he's now up against much better hitters than he has seen anytime. He faced the Pirates in his first start, so this is a much tougher test.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this year. He has very poor numbers against this Red Sox lineup as well. Trevor Story has really seen the ball well off Rodriguez. 

Chase Field is still a top four or five hitters ballpark in all of baseball. A total set this low isn't very common here without high level pitchers going.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Yankees and  Blue Jays are the second and third ranked offenses in baseball in the last 30 days in terms of weighted on base average. 

The Yankees have gotten red hot of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Kevin Gausman is a pretty good pitcher overall, but he has been torched in his last three starts at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has allowed 17 runs in his last 8 and 2/3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. He has a tough task here.

Cam Schlittler is a good young pitcher, but he has faced a lot of very weak lineups. His last four starts have been against very weak offenses. He's up against a top five offense in baseball here in the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has scored 37 runs in their last four games.

The two bullpens here are no better than mediocre. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been money at home this season. The Philadelphia Phillies are actually a game below .500 on the road. 

Freddy Peralta is absolutely dealing right now. Peralta has allowed 0 runs in four straight starts. He has a 2.09 FIP in those four starts. Peralta also has a 1.83 ERA at home on the season. 

Ranger Suarez is a good pitcher, but this Brewers lineup has hit him hard. Also, Suarez has a WHIP of 1.35 in his career after the All Star Break as compared to 1.15 before the break. He often tails off late in the season.

Peralta had poor numbers against this Phillies lineup many years ago, but in the last three outings he has had Peralta has allowed a total of just 3 runs against the Phillies in 16 IP. He has walked only 2 batters and struck out 25.

The Brewers hit left handed pitching well, and I like them to finish this series off with a win with Peralta on the mound.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* I have to fade Mitchell Parker here. Parker has an 8.34 ERA and a 5.75 FIP in his last ten starts. He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. Parker is putting his team in a bad position consistently. He ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in expected batting average. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity.

Eury Perez is coming off a horrible start against the New York Mets. Perez is a good young pitcher overall though. Perez is in the top 7% of all pitchers in expected batting average. His average fastball is 97.8 mph and he consistently has good numbers when it comes to getting hitters to chase after bad pitchers.

The Nationals are 28-42 at home this year. The Marlins are 34-37 on the road. 

The Marlins offense is narrowly better than the Nationals now. Perez is significantly better than Parker.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins have been hitting right handed pitching, and Davis Martin is certainly a below average right handed pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson is also a below average right handed pitcher.

The key for this game to me though is that both bullpens have been awful in the last month. The Twins traded away their top two bullpen arms, and they are struggling badly. The White Sox have a bottom three bullpen that is worn out right now.

There are showers expected here which could mean the bullpen gets a lot of time, and I'll be on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Shane Baz has been rocked when pitching at home in Tampa this season. Baz has a 7.06 ERA at home on the season. Baz has an 8.47 ERA in his last seven starts overall. 

Seattle's offense ranks in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Mariners have plenty of power, and Baz is prone to that big inning.

Luis Castillo has been in very poor form of late too. Castillo has a 6.66 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five starts overall. 

Tampa Bay has hit right handed pitching well all season, and the Rays have continued that trend of late. 

These are two starters who have at times been absolutely smashed. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Teng has been awful for the Giants. He has an 8.78 ERA and 9 walks in just 13 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has given up free baserunners and a lot of hard contact. Those are bad combinations going to Coors Field.

Chase Dollander has been absolutely crushed at Coors Field this season. Dollander has a 9.88 ERA in 41 innings pitched at Coors. Opponents have a whopping .407 weighted on base average against him at Coors. 

The Giants have averaged 9 runs per game in their last five games. Now, they go to take on a very bad starting pitcher at Coors Field.

Colorado is solid offensively at home as well.

Coors Field day games with a total of 12 or lower and a high temperature of 82 degrees or higher have gone over the total at a 56.2% clip in the last 20 seasons. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Fenway Park. The wind matters the most at Wrigley Field in Chicago, but Fenway is where long term stats show the wind matters second most. With the wind blowing in at Fenway and relatively moderate temperatures, it is a clear positive for the pitchers in this one.

Messick has been fantastic in his two starts in the majors. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts. He is one of the higher prospects in the Guardians organization, and he is showing why right now. 

Boston hasn't been hitting very well of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Cleveland has seen five of their last seven stay under this total as well. Bello starts for Boston here and he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken the first two games of this series. I don't think they'll finish a sweep in Boston. Mitch Keller has fallen apart since the All Star Break. Keller has an 8.31 ERA and a 5.31 FIP in his last six starts. He has a long history of pitching much worse after the break.

Lucas Giolito has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts. I think he can take care of this Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh is second worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They have a high BABIP in recent games suggesting regression on the way.

The Pirates are still just 22-46 on the road this year. The Red Sox are 41-27 at home. Boston is in a tight race in the AL East. I like them to finish this game out with a much needed comfortable win.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Twins are 14-25 since the All Star Break. Minnesota dumped their top two bullpen arms at the trade deadline. They traded away one of their best bats too. 

Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, but he has faltered some of late. Ryan likely won't pitch quite as deep into the games late in the season. It would make sense for the Twins to save his arm a bit with them being out of the race.

The Padres have the best bullpen ERA and FIP in baseball this year. This is a bullpen game for the Padres, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing in this case. The Padres have the much better offense and the much better bullpen. The Minnesota bullpen is a big weakness now.

At plus money- I have to back the better overall team.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Padres ML* The Minnesota Twins aren't good anymore. Minnesota is 13-24 since the All Star Break. They traded away their two best bullpen arms, and this is now a very weak bullpen. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball. San Diego is 23-15 (second best in the majors) since the All Star Break. 

Minnesota's offense is now bottom ten in the majors. The Twins have a bottom six or eight bullpen in the majors. They aren't being priced that way.

Zebby Matthews is a decent pitcher, but he relies heavily on the strikeout, and this Padres offense can be tough to strike out.

Nestor Cortes pitched well in his last start, and I think he can build on that against this weakened lineup.

Take San Diego.