*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns still have a strong defense, but the offense is really lacking. The passing game for Cleveland is often non existent in key moments. At times they can get the running game going, but I expect the Ravens to load up the box here and dare Cleveland to throw the ball.

Baltimore's offense is a very good one, but they are primarily good at running the ball. Cleveland is second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. At home this year, Cleveland is allowing a league best 3.0 yards per carry.

The weather in Cleveland is a big factor here. Sunday's forecast calls for 23 mph sustained winds with gusts to 37 mph. That will make it very tough to throw the ball down the field. A more conservative game plan.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers are starting to get healthier. We get a chance to buy low here with them coming off a beating from the Rams last week. Brock Purdy is back and he has historically played very well against Arizona.

The Arizona Cardinals start Brissett at quarterback, but the skill position players around him are a bunch of backups. Harrison Jr. is a big loss at wide receiver and the Cardinals lack a true NFL starter at running back. The cornerbacks are badly banged up for the Cardinals too.

San Francisco is a proud team, and now they are getting their offensive weapons back. 

Take the 49ers here. 

*3 Star Play on Vikings* The Chicago Bears have been on a nice winning streak of late, but Chicago has had some wild come from behind victories where they have been fortunate. Chicago is a bottom five defense in the NFL. Caleb Williams has a tough test here too going up against a really good Vikings pass rush. The Bears are -0.4 yards per play margin on the season, so they have been outplayed despite their strong record. 

Minnesota played well for much of the game against the Ravens, and the Vikings are now healthier on the offensive line. The Vikings have the edge in the trenches in this game.

Minnesota has a nice home field advantage too. 

I'll lay it here.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the LA Rams at Levi's Stadium. This stadium is known for being a grass field, and divisional games here have played strongly toward the under. In fact, the last seven times the Rams played at the 49ers and the total was higher than 44: the under is 6-1 with an average margin of more than a touchdown toward the under.

The Rams defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Rams have been solid in all aspects of the game on the defensive side of the ball.

The 49ers have only played one game that went over this total all season long. They don't have the explosiveness on offense that they normally have when their wide receivers are healthy. They are more conservative in their play calling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens are obviously one of the best teams in the NFL with a healthy Lamar Jackson. They dug themselves a really big hole that they must now play their way out of in order to stay in the playoff fight. They can't take any weeks off. 

Lamar Jackson is 31-18 ATS on the road. The Ravens have been road warriors with Jackson under center. 

Minnesota is coming off a nice win, but the Vikings have proven not to be trustworthy this year. They were blown away at home by the Falcons earlier in the year with McCarthy at quarterback. Even last week, the offense only put up 258 yards.

Baltimore should move the ball well here, and I don't think Minnesota can trade scores with them. The Ravens defense has gotten healthier in recent weeks too.

Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts have been the top offense in the NFL to this point in the season. Many people keep predicting this offense will slow down, but it hasn't happened. The offensive line is elite. The running game is excellent. Jones has been very good in the passing game too. The overall balance they have on offense along with the forward thinking play calling is tough to stop. The Colts are scoring 33.8 points per game so far this season. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging 25 points per game. The Steelers offense hasn't been the problem in their recent losses. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have been above average. While the Colts offense is elite, the defense has been mediocre. The secondary is especially beatable, and they are just 21st at PFF in coverage grade. 

The Steelers no longer have that top notch defense we remember them for in recent seasons. Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense and coverage grade at PFF. They are allowing 25 points per game. 

Three Steelers games have already reached 60 total points this year. The Colts have had five games with 52 points or more this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers are second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I still believe this Packers defense is a very solid one. They have played a tough schedule of opposing offenses thus far. This is a step down for them. 

Carolina is bottom five in the NFL in total offense and nearly all the advanced metrics. The Panthers have a cluster injury issue on the offensive line too. Bryce Young will be back here, but he is less than 100% and playing behind a banged up offensive line. This is a dangerous spot for the Carolina offense. 

Carolina's defense has been top 12 in the NFL in the last three games. While I don't think their defense is good overall, they don't give up explosives nearly as much as the average team.

The wind in this game could change the game some too. Sustained winds will grow to 18 mph or so during the game with gusts hitting 30 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have played terribly the last couple weeks. There is no denying that this team was thumped last week, but they have been really banged up as well. Atlanta enters this game much more healthy. This is still a Falcons team that outplayed the Bucs in week one. They beat the Bills a few weeks ago. They went on the road and thumped the Vikings too. 

There are a lot of long term angles that have been very successful in the NFL that back teams coming off terrible recent performances where they lost ATS by a huge point margin. Atlanta fits that in this spot.

New England has played well of late, but they dominated a Cleveland team with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback and the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots lost at home this year to both the Raiders and the Steelers. I think the market is a little too high on New England right now.

With Penix, London, and Pitts back in the lineup the Falcons should look different here. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens have an easy schedule the rest of the way. Baltimore is 1-5, but if they get healthy they still at least have a chance to make the playoffs if they win this game. At 1-6, the playoffs would likely be out of reach.

Kyler Gordon is out for the Bears here and that hurts a lot. Tyrique Stevenson is out as well, and the secondary is really hurting for Chicago. Cole Kmet is out with an injury too. DeAndre Swift is questionable with an injury. 

The Bears are a very banged up team now. Baltimore is trying to circle the wagons here and I think they'll do it. Though I certainly wish Jackson was in here, Huntley is a good backup and at the current price I do like Baltimore.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals arguably have the worst defense in the NFL. It is certainly one of the bottom three or four defenses in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed 27 points or more in six straight games. 

The Jets have looked poor on offense of late, but the Bengals are the perfect opponent for Justin Fields to have a bounce back game against. He should be able to do some work on the ground and hit some big gainers through the air in this one. 

Joe Flacco is a large upgrade from Jake Browning, and the Bengals definitely have excellent targets on the outside. Sauce Gardner will miss this game, and I think Chase and Higgins should have a big game here. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I believe this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Chargers* The LA Chargers are coming off a bad loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Chargers are getting healthier though, and I like their chances of bouncing back here. 

Khalil Mack and Joe Alt are likely to be back for the Chargers, and those are two extremely important guys for this team. The Chargers should be able to pressure Carson Wentz here, and Wentz has played very poorly this year. Wentz has a 55.8 PFF grade. 

Justin Herbert is so much better than Wentz, and Herbert has much better weapons to throw it to than he has had many of the recent seasons.

The Vikings are a turnover prone team with Wentz at the helm, and I like this home spot on a short week for the Chargers to bounce back.

Take the LA Chargers. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants are feeling great about themselves coming off their upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Giants were celebrating in a huge way after that one, and it was a blowout victory over divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles. 

The Denver Broncos had a really ugly game against the Jets overseas last week. Denver held the Jets to 1.4 yards per play, and the Jets had -10 passing yards in the game. This Denver defense is arguably the best in the NFL. 

The Giants have had a couple upset wins of late, but this is still a team that is less talented than most teams in the NFL. The Broncos can't be happy about putting up only 13 points last weekend. 

Denver has been much better at home, and the Broncos have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.

Road teams coming off a home underdog blowout win have been very poor ATS in their next game. I'll fade the Giants here.

Take Denver. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland looks rough for this game. Sustained winds in the 20 mph area with gusts of 37 mph are possible during this game. We've seen how much the weather can change Cleveland Browns home games in the past, and this is another game where the weather could play a large factor.

Miami's offense isn't what it once was. The Dolphins certainly miss Tyreek Hill quite badly. The Dolphins running game has slipped in the last few games. 

Cleveland's offense is second to last in the NFL in yards per play. They are averaging just 4.1 yards per play. Now, they have to deal with the elements as well.

Dillon Gabriel isn't going to be asked to do very much in a spot like this. 

Both teams are likely to be very conservative with the play calling. I think the clock will keep running a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears are middle of the pack in yards per play this year. The New Orleans Saints are 27th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago is at the bottom of the NFL in yards per play allowed, while the Saints are up at 14th best. 

The weather here should play a large role in this game. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 21 mph sustained winds with a 40% chance of showers during this game. The wind gusts during this game are expected to be in the 35-40 mph range. 

Those are intense winds and we know the Chicago games have been hit hard by winds off the lake in the past. 

I don't think either ground game is good enough to move it up and down the field consistently in these conditions. They are 20th and 24th in the NFL in yards per carry. 

These conditions make explosive plays far less likely. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a hard fought loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs last weekend. Seattle actually had 8.6 yards per play to 7.3 yards per play for Tampa Bay, but they were -2 in TO margin and that was just enough for the Bucs to edge them out.

Jacksonville is coming off a massive Monday night win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They couldn't be feeling better about themselves coming into this game. The Jaguars have lost the yards per play statistic in their last three games (all wins), and I believe they are a little overvalued in the market in general. With a short week to prepare and a tough opponent coming off a loss, I think this is a difficult situational spot for the Jaguars.

Seattle has two very good RB's and Jacksonville is 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, and I like the Seahawks defense to bounce back in this game.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Saints* The New Orleans Saints are winless this year, but they have been more competitive than I expected. Here is a good situational spot and a nice opportunity for them. I think they'll play hard in this one. 

The New York Giants brought in Jaxson Dart and immediately won a football game. It would be easy to overreact to that, but the Giants averaged just 3.6 yards per play on offense and really had no business winning that game when you look at the box score. They were +2 in TO margin, and the Chargers committed 14 penalties. Malik Nabers is out and that hurts the Giants offense in a big way. I don't see the big play potential in the passing game now.

Both Giants starting safeties are questionable with injuries. Dexter Lawrence is sick and is questionable too.

The Saints have much better offensive weapons for Spencer Rattler than the Giants have for Dart now that Nabers is out. 

New Orleans won't have many chances to win, and I think they'll grab this opportunity.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are first in the NFL in yards per play. I don't think that will change after they face a weak Las Vegas defense this weekend. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. The Raiders are also below average in yards per play allowed at 21st in the NFL.

The Las Vegas offense has been inconsistent this year, but in the dome on the fast track I like their chances of moving the ball well here. Jeanty got going last week, and that should help the offense a lot. Indianapolis is just 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

Early season games in a dome have trended strongly toward the over in the last ten years in the NFL.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been fortunate to win all 4 of their games. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in yards per play at 4.2 yards per play. Philadelphia has been a mess on offense, and now they are going up against a top five defense in the NFL. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and create some negative plays. The Eagles have had less big plays this year, and the offensive line is banged up right now.

The Denver offense looking good against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals doesn't change my opinion of them. Denver isn't bad offensively, but against the top defenses in the NFL I think Nix will often struggle. The Eagles defense is still a top six or eight unit in the NFL. 

This line has moved up enough here that I'm comfortable going to the low side. The Eagles are second slowest in the NFL in tempo. I think the defenses have the edge here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Packers* The Green Bay Packers are first in the NFL in total defense so far this year. Micah Parsons and that fierce Packers defense go to Dallas to take on Parsons old team here. 

This would have been a motivated spot for the Packers anyways, but now it is a double motivated spot given the Packers stunning loss at Cleveland on Sunday. Green Bay needs back on track here.

Dallas is -0.8 yards per play on the season as a whole. The defense is second worst in the NFL. 

Green Bay is +1.7 yards per play on the season as a whole. Jordan Love and the offense are solid and the defense is superb.

Look for the Packers to take care of business on Sunday night.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Now, the Bears are without a star cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, and that hurts them a ton. The Bears lack a pass rush as well. I think Geno Smith can do some work against this Bears secondary in the dome on the fast track.

Chicago is top ten in the NFL in yards per play. They have a new offensive minded coach. They brought in some excellent new weapons for Caleb Williams. Both Loveland and Burden are really good adds. Odunze is becoming a star at the wide receiver spot as well. The Raiders were just torched for 41 points by the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

I think we'll see a lot of big plays both ways in a tight game where the offenses have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Giants will start Jaxson Dart in this game. Dart is up against a really good defense in the Chargers here. This is very tough ask of him right away. I expect the Giants to run the football more and play it more cautious than normal. The offensive line in front of Dart is clearly a bad one.

The Giants have been an under machine at home, especially as a home underdog. As a home underdog of 6.5 points or less the under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 contests. Here is another game that fits this system.

The Chargers are content to play at a slow pace and if they have control of the game they run the football quite a bit. The Giants front seven on defense is very strong and I think they can get some pressure on Herbert here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens have scored 40 and 41 points in their first two games. The Cleveland Browns defense has looked tremendous in the other two games they have played, but Baltimore made them look bad. This Ravens offense is a juggernaut. 

The Lions defense is 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jared Goff has always been much better playing in the dome, and this one is on the road in Baltimore.

Lamar Jackson is 18-8 ATS laying less than 5 points from game 3 of the regular season to the end of the regular season. When it is a non-divisional opponent, Jackson is 13-3 ATS. 

Baltimore is unlikely to let down here after they gave up their big lead against the Bills in their first primetime showdown earlier this year. 

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 to start the season. This is a proud team with a great head coach and excellent quarterback. They know going 0-3 is very tough to dig out of, and I expect a better effort from them in this game.

Kansas City lost close ones against both the Chargers and the Eagles in the last two weeks. Those are two of the top four or five teams in the NFL. 

The Chiefs outgained the Eagles 5.2 yards per play to 3.7 yards per play. They finished -1 in TO margin. 

The Giants offense was missing in action in game one, and their defense was terrible in game two. 

I like the spot for the Chiefs here. Their secondary is good enough to slow down Nabers and the Giants passing attack. I think they win and cover in a nearly must win type of spot.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Houston Texans* The Houston Texans had a preseason win total of 9.5 wins. Houston has started out the season 0-2. The Texans have lost by 5 and by 1 in their two games this year, and this is a massive spot in week three for CJ Stroud and company.

Jacksonville is coming off an ugly loss to the Bengals. Jake Browning came in after Joe Burrow was hurt and threw three interceptions, but the Bengals still beat the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 1-1, so they aren't in quite as desperate of a situation here. 

I like the Texans defense much better than the Jaguars defense. Stroud has struggled at times, but on the whole he has been better in big situations than Trevor Lawrence. 

NFL teams who are 0-2 have done very well ATS in week three of the NFL season in recent years. I'll take the short dog here.

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL. I know the Titans aren't world beaters on offense, but Denver held them to a miniscule 2.4 yards per play this past weekend. The Broncos secondary is an elite unit, and the rest of the defense is very good as well.

The Indianapolis Colts defense looked great in shutting down the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami had just 211 total yards of offense. The Dolphins have plenty of offensive weapons too. 

The Colts shouldn't be too explosive on offense with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I would expect the Broncos to game plan for shutting down the run here and rely on their great secondary. 

Bo Nix and the Broncos offense is inconsistent. They don't have elite skill position talent all around either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met in December 2024 and the final was 36-30 in OT. That game had a posted total of 47. This line shouldn't be set so much lower because of one low scoring week.

In the NFL in the past decade, games in week two between two teams who both saw their week one games go under the total- those games have been very good over bets in week two. Both of these teams saw their first game go well under the total.

In a dome on a fast track, this is an ultra low total. The Panthers have a bottom 3 or 4 defense in the NFL. The Cardinals defense is middle of the pack. 

I think Arizona's offense can put up a big number here. Murray and his wide receivers should have a bigger game here.

Carolina should be able to do enough. The Panthers have been good at scoring late in the game when down in the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans defense played very well against the Broncos last week. The Broncos busted one big run, but even with that they only had 4.5 yards per play. The Titans tackled well and gave Bo Nix quite a bit of trouble.

On the offensive end, the Titans were dreadful. Yes, the Broncos have a very good defense. Still, the Titans averaged just 2.4 yards per play and picked up only 7 first downs. 

The Rams defensive line is a strength, and the Titans offensive line is a big problem. Latham is injured here and may not play. The Titans don't have depth on the offensive front. 

Despite trailing through the game, the Titans played at a slow pace last week. The Rams typically play relatively slow as well.

Matt Stafford still isn't completely healthy, and the Rams offensive line isn't particularly strong either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers definitely have some injury concerns as they always seem to. Brock Purdy is out and Mac Jones is in. Jones is definitely one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. The 49ers certainly have plenty of weapons around him, so he doesn't have to go and try to do it by himself. 

Williams is a game time decision on the offensive line. Jennings is questionable, but sources say the team is optimistic he will play here. 

New Orleans played a bit better than expected last week, but the Saints are a bottom three or four team in the NFL. The Saints defense is no longer strong as it was a few years ago. Spencer Rattler can make some plays, but he is also mistake prone at times. 

The line here has gotten down to a level where I'm going to take the much more talented team. 

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow square off just as they did in the college football title game in 2020. 

Burrow and the Bengals offense played poorly in week one in Cleveland. They were fortunate to get out of Cleveland with a win. I expect much better from the Bengals offense in week two. The Jaguars defense is definitely worse than the Browns defense. The defensive front from the Jags isn't likely to get in the backfield as often as Myles Garrett and the Browns.

Liam Coen is a great offensive mind, and I expect him to do a really good job with the Jacksonville offense. I know they looked better in week one, but the Bengals defense was terrible a year ago and they didn't make many changes (other than DC). They also looked very poor in the preseason. 

I think both Lawrence and Burrow have a good game here. Both teams saw their week one game go under the total, and in the past that has made for a good week two over. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Falcons NFC South Game of Month* The Tampa Bay Bucs have had a lot of trouble with the Atlanta Falcons in the recent past when it comes to covering the number. 

Atlanta is an improved team, and the Falcons have been good in the underdog role. The Bucs are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 as a road favorite.

I expect Michael Penix to have a good season for the Falcons with the weapons around him. Robinson should be able to have a big game here on the ground. 

Liem Coen is a really good OC, and I think losing him could hurt Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense some. Tampa Bay has a lot of injuries for the start of the season too. I don't think their depth is good enough to remain consistently excellent even when they are banged up.

I like the additions on the Atlanta defense. The secondary is solid, and the pass rush is improved with Leonard Floyd being a big key.

Home underdogs have been money in week one in the NFL, especially when they are divisional home dogs.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Tomlin's teams have struggled offensively on the road in the last decade, but they have been tremendous on defense. When Tomlin and the Steelers are on the road in the first ten games of the season- the under is a whopping 40-11 in the last 51 contests. 

The Steelers offense has all sorts of question marks. Will Rodgers be a good fit? He's clearly far past his prime and his level of play last season wasn't very high. The Jets defense is a good one too, and they should make life difficult on him.

Justin Fields hasn't proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL. The Jets lost their best offensive lineman Vera-Tucker to an injury this week. Their lack of depth on the offensive line makes that a big problem. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in the NFL.

It's a low total, but I don't think it is quite low enough. A 17-14 type of game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Giants* This isn't a fun bet to make, but I think there is enough value here. Washington won by 3 points and by 5 points in the two head to head matchups last year. 

The New York Giants defense is underrated. I think they'll slow down a lot of offenses this year and keep this team in more games than most people think.

Underdogs- especially divisional underdogs, have been tremendous in week one of the NFL in the past decade. 

The Washington Commanders had a special season last year,  but the ball had to bounce their way several times to have the kind of record that they finished with. The defense gave up 391 points, and there was a lot of pressure on Daniels and the offense.

Washington converted on 79% of their fourth down conversion attempts. The league average was right around 55-56%. That is something that should regress toward the mean.

I don't think the Giants offense is good, but they have a tough defense and are getting a bunch of points here against a Washington team with some regression signs.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been as dominant this year as it has been in past seasons, but Kansas City still has more upside than many believe on that side of the football. Patrick Mahomes is still the top quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is capable of roasting any defense in the league when he is at his best. Travis Kelce isn't what he once was, but I expect him to have a big game in a one game sample like this. The Chiefs also have a very good offensive line. Both Pacheco and Hunt are more than capable out of the backfield too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a blueprint for success with the running game here. The Buffalo Bills were highly successful running the ball on the Chiefs last time out. The Eagles have a superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is healthier than he has been in quite a while. The Eagles have good wideouts and an excellent tight end.

This game is played on a fast track in the dome in New Orleans. NFL playoff games played in a dome are 37-18 (67.3% overs) since 2004. When the total is below 50, the dome game playoff overs are 25-11.

These two put on a high scoring Super Bowl a couple years ago. I don't think this one will be that high scoring, but I do like it to go over this much lower posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas City Chiefs ML* The Kansas City Chiefs are as accustomed to being in this spot as any team could ever be. Kansas City is playing in their seventh straight AFC Championship game.

Buffalo beat Kansas City during the regular season, but the Chiefs are 16-3 in the playoffs under Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are unbeaten at home this year as well. 

I give the Chiefs a clear coaching advantage in this one. Andy Reid is an excellent head coach, and the Chiefs coordinators are very good as well. 

Kansas City is the better defense by a wide margin here. Buffalo's defense is 24th in the NFL in yards per play for the season. The Chiefs are top six in the NFL in DVOA in their last four  games where the starters played. 

Buffalo has relied very heavily on defense on forcing loads of turnovers. The Chiefs are 4th best in the NFL when it comes to not turning the football over. 

Josh Allen is a really good quarterback, but he is up against a really good defensive line. The Bills are in a tough spot here. Kansas City has a fantastic home field advantage.

I think the market is actually underrating the two time defending champs here.

Take Kansas City ML. 

*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Philadelphia Eagles didn't look overly impressive against the Green Bay Packers last week. That has made the betting public come in on the Rams quite a bit in this game. I'm going to instead back the more consistent Philadelphia team here

Philadelphia's offense has had trouble at times, but this Eagles defense has been consistently great. The Eagles are far better equipped to slow down Stafford and the Rams passing game than most teams are because of their speed and depth in the secondary.

This looks like it will be a poor weather game as well. I think that is a plus for the Eagles. The Rams run defense has been subpar all season. Philadelphia should be happy to keep it on the ground and use their tremendous offensive line to their advantage. It helps having Saquon Barkley and Hurts both in the backfield at all times. 

The Rams are 24th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. They really want to throw it and the conditions could make that difficult. The Eagles are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play. 

I'll take the home favorite in this one.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love have some question marks around them right now. Hurts is recovering from a concussion and hasn't played in quite some time. We've seen many quarterbacks struggle in their first game back from a concussion. Jordan Love banged up his elbow last week, and Love is said to be less than 100 percent.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense was first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. The Green Bay Packers defense was fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. 

The Eagles are first in the NFL in percentage of plays that are a run. The Green Bay Packers are third. The clock should keep ticking in this one. Philadelphia is 24th in tempo in the league and Green Bay is 30th, so neither team plays very fast.

I think we should see some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock. Both quarterbacks are good when full strength, but there are large question marks here. 

Christian Watson is a key loss for the Packers offense as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home this year. Detroit has seen six of their last seven games at home finish with at least 58 points total.

The first time these two teams met it was 31-29 in Minnesota. The Lions defense was much healthier then than it is now. Detroit has given up a staggering 7.6 yards per play (worst in the NFL) in their last three games. The Lions defense gets back a bit of help on defense here, but they are still very shorthanded. The weakness of the Lions defense is the secondary and the pass rush. 

Sam Darnold is playing some excellent football, and he has amazing weapons to spread the ball around to here. The Vikings receivers should have a big day. 

Detroit's offense is amazing at home. Jared Goff is playing tremendous football, and the Lions have some very good balance.

These two teams are first and second in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more. I expect to see a lot of explosive plays in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense has been really bad down the stretch, and they are really up against it here facing the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa Bay put up 51 point and a whopping 594 yards of offense on the Saints in the first meeting. I'm certainly not expecting that again, but I think Baker Mayfield and company will do a lot of damage again.

Tampa Bay needs to win here to be in and I expect them to win. The oddsmakers expect this one to not be very close. I think that is a real possibility, but Tampa Bay playing with a decent lead in the second half could help the over here. 

Spencer Rattler has been playing better and the Tampa Bay secondary is a clear weakness with their current injury issues. Rattler and the Saints could have chances to put up points late here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Houston Texans* The Tennessee Titans have a lot to lose by winning this game. The Titans still have a real shot at the first overall draft pick. If they win this game, they could fall outside the top five in the draft. It certainly isn't worth it for a team that has all sorts of needs. 

The Houston Texans coaching staff and players have been talking all week about needing to go into the playoffs with some momentum and preparing to be successful. This is a team that has played poorly of late, and I think a win here would do them quite a bit of good.

Davis Mills is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. I think he is better than any QB for the Titans. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense is a bit of an unknown now with Penix taking over under center. Atlanta has a pretty good rushing attack, but I expect Washington to be able to take away the explosive rushing plays especially with the weather conditions in this one.

The Washington offense can be explosive, but they are just 14th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Commanders defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

The Falcons defense is middle of the road on the season, and the offense has had trouble in the red zone.

The weather here should matter quite a bit. The forecast calls for 18 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 30 mph. There is expected to be steady rain as well. That should make both offenses less aggressive.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland doesn't look good for this game. We know this is a stadium where weather matters much more than the average NFL stadium. Cleveland games have been very low scoring with wind and precipitation. 

The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds and 90% rain during this game. The winds will actually be increasing as we go later into the game.

The Browns have chosen to go with DTR as their starting quarterback, and that makes them a lot better under team than when they had Winston. DTR is very limited in his passing ability and the Miami defense should be able to limit explosives much better.

The Browns defense played very well against the Bengals last week, and overall the Browns have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

I think this Browns offense is a bottom 3 offense in the NFL in its current state. The Miami offense is shorthanded as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jets defense played well last week against the Rams. 

Buffalo has had some very high scoring games of late against the likes of the Lions and the Rams, but I expect this game to look different. Buffalo's defense gets a big boost from Matt Milano being back for this one. Rasul Douglas is also back at cornerback.

The first game between these two was 23-20. This game is being played at Buffalo during some pretty major winds. The average sustained wind during this game is forecast to be about 19 mph. Off and on rain showers could change the game as well.

Divisional unders are a little north of 57% in the last 15 years when there is an average wind of 10 mph or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs have been amazing offensively on the fast track in domes this year. Baker Mayfield is in the perfect system for him under Coen. The Bucs have excellent skill position talent with underrated running backs and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Evans.

The Dallas Cowboys will be without Diggs at cornerback here. Lewis is questionable with an injury. Micah Parsons showed up as questionable with an illness on the final injury report too. Eric Kendricks is also questionable. Even if many of these guys play, they are less than 100 percent.

Cooper Rush isn't a terrible backup quarterback, but I don't think Rush can trade scores with this high powered Tampa Bay offense.

Tampa Bay is second in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. The Cowboys defense is bottom five in the NFL in yards per play for the season as a whole. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets defense hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but the offense has found its footing in recent weeks. The Jets offense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Jets have played in four straight games that have gone over this posted total. 

The Rams are coming off a low scoring win over San Francisco in that rainy and windy game. The fact that a weather game like that made it lower scoring has given us some value here. The Rams offense was humming along before last week. Three of the Rams last five games have hit 50 points or more.

The Rams offense when healthy is dangerous, and they are much healthier now than they were earlier in the year. Rodgers has more weapons around him now, and he should be able to take advantage of a questionable Rams defense.

It will be cold here, but very cold weather has helped overs in the past in the NFL by a pretty big margin, especially in non-divisional games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Philadelphia locked down the Commanders the first time these two met until Washington put up 8 points in garbage time. That game finished with 44 points despite the 28 point fourth quarter.

Washington's defense has really improved throughout the season. The Commanders are top ten in all major defensive stats in the last three games. They are second in yards per carry allowed in the last three games.

Philadelphia is playing at a slow pace, especially when they have the lead. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points here so the game script could help us out.

Divisional unders from game number 10 until the end of the season are 56% in the last 625 games. If you exclude the last week of the season, those unders sit at 59%. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a mess last week with Kyler Murray throwing picks and being out of rhythm, but I like them to bounce back against a weak New England Patriots defense. 

New England doesn't have the kind of secondary to keep Arizona's passing attack quiet all game. The Pats are giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt despite playing a relatively easy schedule of opposing passing attacks.

New England's offense is much better with Drake Maye. Maye has impressed me quite a bit this season. He's a great scrambler, and he is up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against quarterbacks who can run. 

With Kyler Murray as the home quarterback, Cardinals games with a posted total of 49 or lower are 19-11 to the over. Drake Maye's games as a starter are 6-2 to the over. The two unders were against lower scoring teams in the Titans and Bears.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins is finally getting back into a groove. We know this offense has a ton of weapons and with Tua healthy they should be able to move it well on just about everyone. 

The Houston defense is good at rushing the passer, but I think Miami can scheme up enough quick passes to keep them guessing here. Miami has multiple good backs and great wide receivers who can be utilized in the short passing game.

I think C.J. Stroud is due for some positive regression with healthier wide receivers around him, and the Dolphins defense is no better than mediocre.

This is a game played on a fast track and I like both teams to get well into the 20's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Chargers offense has struggled without JK Dobbins. Justin Herbert has been under more pressure, and the passing game is having to do it all. This Kansas City defensive line is fantastic in the middle and I think they'll be in the backfield quite a bit on Sunday night.

Kansas City's offense just hasn't gotten going this year. The Chiefs are 22nd in yards per play for the season. They are 24th in the last three games. Kansas City is up against a Chargers defense that is third in the league in yards per play allowed on the road this year.

A bit of a wind (11 or 12 mph) here in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is also the Bill Vinovich crew. The under is an impressive 104-72 in this crew's games. They have the best under record of any of the referee crews.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most improved defenses in the NFL from the start of the season to right now. Arizona is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Seattle is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

I think both of these defensive coordinators are excellent and the head coaches are really focusing on defense as well.

These two teams just played a 16-6 game recently and that was with a pick six. These two offenses haven't been explosive of late, and I think there will be plenty of tackles for a loss in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Packers* The Detroit Lions have been excellent this year, and I definitely respect them a lot as a team. Detroit has major injury issues now though. The Lions have cluster injuries on the defensive line. D.J. Reader has been a huge part of their success and he is injured now. Taylor Decker is a great offensive lineman, and he is expected to miss this game. 

Green Bay is quietly 7-1 in their last 8 games. The Packers have gotten into a lot better rhythm on offense now with Jordan Love completely healthy and getting plenty of time under his belt. Green Bay is now second in the NFL in yards per play offensively so far this season. In fact, the Lions and Packers YPP margins overall are nearly exactly even.

I think the Packers need this game more than the Lions do, and they are the healthier of the two teams.

I'll grab the points in what I expect to be a tight contest.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers offense has been much improved of late. Bryce Young is playing decent football. The Kansas City defense is very good, and Young played well against them a week ago. Chuba Hubbard has turned into a really solid running back. The Panthers pass catchers have also gotten a bit healthier.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. I really like the offensive scheme they are running with Coen. Baker Mayfield is playing well and with Mike Evans healthy they have one of the top playmakers at wide receiver in the league.

Tampa Bay has a history of some very high scoring games. Five of their last seven games have gone to 54 points or higher total. 

These are two bottom six or seven defenses in the NFL.

The referee crew in this one has been 24-17 to the over. The weather for this game is good with a temperature in the mid 40's and almost no wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals* The Minnesota Vikings aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate.  The Vikings started out red hot, but have shown major issues in recent weeks. Their five point win over the Jags was concerning. The overtime win over the Bears wasn't a good look either. 

The Arizona Cardinals have been much better than the Vikings on a yards per play margin basis for the season. Arizona's defense has really come on and played some great football in recent weeks. Arizona has allowed just 3.9 yards per play in the last three weeks. That is the second best in the NFL in that period.

The Vikings play all kinds of close games. I think this one will go right down to the wire as well. I'm happy to grab the points north of a field goal.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers defense isn't a bad defense, but they are certainly not the dominant defense they have looked like in the stats earlier in the season. They had a run of tremendous luck of facing weak quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks for a long time. The Bengals and Ravens both moved the ball easily on the Chargers. 

I'm not saying the Falcons are on par with the Ravens or Bengals offense, but the Falcons do have a lot of good skill position talent. They are playing on the fast track here. I think they can make some things happen.

The Chargers offense has gotten more pass heavy of late. Justin Herbert is fully healthy and with Dobbins injured the Chargers are likely to throw it even more. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks. I see Herbert having a lot of time to throw the ball down the field here. The Falcons have a below average defense on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions are averaging 37.6 points per game at home this year. Detroit is is averaging 48.6 points per game in their last three home games. Jared Goff is surrounded by a plethora of weapons. The Lions are a great offense, especially when they are home on the fast track in Detroit. 

Chicago's defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. The Bears defense is no better than mediocre, and of late they have looked worse than that. Chicago's offense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple games. They did make some coaching changes. The Bears did put up 391 yards on Green Bay two weeks ago and 398 yards and 27 points last week against the Vikings.

Detroit wants to put on a show for Thanksgiving viewers. The Lions are likely to put up a pretty big number. I think Chicago can do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense is improving week by week with Tua back and Hill getting a bit healthier. The Dolphins are explosive and this Patriots defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The Patriots defense isn't innovative and their coverages are too easy to read for the best offenses. 

The New England Patriots offense is definitely moving the ball much better with Drake Maye. Maye has shown several good signs of being a good long term option under center. The Dolphins defense is a mediocre unit.

I see this as a game where the Dolphins have potential to score a bunch, and the Patriots should be able to do enough in a game script where they are playing catchup and throwing it around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans have Nico Collins back, and he makes a world of difference for C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense. Collins is the game changer on the outside that opens everything else up for Houston. 

The Titans offense has certainly been better of late. They are averaging 5.5 yards per play in their last three games, which is above the league average during that time. Will Levis has been a bit better since returning from injury.

The Titans defense is poor at getting off the field on key plays, and I like the Texans ability to make them pay once they get into the red zone. Stroud is a good decision maker.

This one is played on the fast track with a very low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense is a shell of its former self when it comes to weapons on the outside. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are both out here. Amari Cooper is questionable. They have already been without a star wide receiver, but now they are really thin. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are also without their star receiver Rashee Rice. Kansas City is 19th in yards per play on offense this year. Patrick Mahomes is fantastic, but without Rice and Pacheco he has been limited in his ability to create big plays. 

Both Kansas City and Buffalo play at a slower pace than the average NFL team. 

Kansas City's defense is excellent. They should be able to keep the Bills in front of them and limit the big plays. The Buffalo defense has been really good against the run in the last few weeks, and they seem to be trending in the right direction.

This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks, but I think the injuries at the key skill position spots are going to help the defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Browns* The New Orleans Saints had their "step up" game for interim coach Rizzi in his first game last week. This often occurs in the NFL, but these kinds of things don't usually stick around for long. The Saints were badly outgained in last week's game too, and the Falcons probably should have won.

Cleveland had a bye week last week, and the Browns are the healthiest they have been all year. The offensive line and secondary are in much better shape. I continue to believe that Winston is an upgrade from Watson at quarterback as well. 

Derek Carr is very reliant on being able to have time to throw. He is very poor under pressure, and the Browns should get heat on him with Myles Garrett and company. The Saints are without Olave and Shaheed. I don't expect Valdes-Scantling to continue to have huge games at wide receiver.

The Saints defense has been bottom five in the NFL all year. The Saints offense is badly shorthanded and the Browns are getting healthy.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Packers* The Green Bay Packers had a bye week last week. It was a good time for a bye week for Green Bay. They outplayed Detroit in their last game before the bye, but finished -1 in TO margin and couldn't cash in on their opportunities in the red zone. 

Jordan Love is getting healthier, and I like his chances of improving his level of play in the next few weeks. Green Bay has won and covered 10 straight times in Chicago, so they should be comfortable coming to Chicago here.

The Chicago Bears have failed to score a touchdown on 23 straight drives. Yes they made a change at OC, but I doubt that is going to be a quick fix. The Bears passing attack is bottom five in the NFL. The offensive line is playing terribly of late, and Caleb Williams has looked like a guy who has no confidence. He's taking sacks every time there is any pressure around him.

The Packers are the more talented team to begin with, and they come in here with a lot more confidence.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play on New York Jets* The New York Jets are getting healthier. Their secondary was the strength of the defense before the season, and they get back three key guys in the secondary for this showdown. 

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line struggles, and the Jets pass rush can dominate at times. They were excellent last week. The Jets should make it difficult for Kyler Murray in this one.

Aaron Rodgers really has no excuse now. He has Garrett Wilson and Devante Adams. The Jets have good running backs as well. 

Sometimes the line tells a story and I think this is one of those instances. The Jets have underachieved for much of the year. 

The Jets had extra time to prepare for this game, and I like them to have a strong effort here.

Take the Jets. 

*3 Star Play on San Francisco* The San Francisco 49ers are in a good situation here. They are coming off a bye week and are much healthier. Christian McCaffrey is expected to be on the field or this one. He's such a huge difference maker for this offense. Deebo Samuel has a good chance to play here too. Brock Purdy has played pretty well for much of the season, and he should look a lot better with his best weapons back. 

The Tampa Bay defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Tampa Bay is 30th in passing defense. The Bucs haven't even had a bye week yet. They are coming off a very short week. They lost in overtime in Kansas City on Monday night. That game had to take a lot out of a team that is shorthanded. 

Tampa Bay is still without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield is likely to struggle against the 49ers aggressive defense without his best weapons in the passing game. 

San Francisco is far better than their record and I think they'll show that in this one.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* Derek Carr is back for this one. I'm not a huge fan of Carr on the whole, but he is a massive upgrade from what the Saints have had in the last few weeks. 

Kirk Cousins is playing well and this Atlanta offense is in a good position against a New Orleans defense that ranks bottom 3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Marshon Lattimore is gone now too. While he was often injured, he was extremely talented and they'll miss him in the secondary. 

Both of these teams rank in the top six in the NFL in tempo. This game is being played in a dome on the fast track. New Orleans has been a top ten offense with Carr playing this year. Atlanta is top eight in total offense.

The NFC South has been a division full of high scoring games against each other so far this year. NFC South games between teams inside the division are 7-0 to the over this year. Six of those seven games have gone over the total by more than a touchdown.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Colts* The Indianapolis Colts will start Joe Flacco here. Flacco is a pretty big upgrade vs. Anthony Richardson right now. Flacco is able to navigate opposing defenses blitzing, which is very key here against a Brian Flores coached defense. 

The Minnesota Vikings are now without star Christian Darrisaw and that should slow down the offense quite a bit. The Vikings offense has really struggled of late, and now they are missing a star. The Vikings are 18th in EPA on offense. Minnesota is still relying on Sam Darnold, who has been very inconsistent throughout his career.

The Indianapolis Colts have been held back by Richardson in the games he has been under center. They have moved the ball really well under Flacco. They even picked up a nice win over the Steelers with Flacco under center.

The Vikings play a ton of one possession games. I think this one goes down to the wire too. The Colts are sitting at 4-4 and this is an important game to them. 

Take Indianapolis. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns are a completely different team with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. I consider him a clear upgrade from Deshaun Watson. He's also definitely a better option if you are looking for points in a game overall. Winston is going to take chances down the field. He's also going to throw some bad picks now and then. It could mean more points for the Browns or the other team.

The Chargers have had a bunch of low scoring games, but they have played some really bad offenses. The Browns with Winston are a step up from what they have been playing. Additionally, the Chargers are now becoming more aggressive on offense since Justin Herbert is healthy once again.

The oddsmakers have adjusted this total up some, but I don't think they have adjusted it enough. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL. In fact, this team is ranked in the top five in the last 20 years in yards per play through this many games. Lamar Jackson is playing some great football. Derrick Henry has been an amazing match for the Ravens offensive scheme too. They now have better pass catchers than they have had in recent seasons.

Baltimore's defense has been a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays and committing too many big penalties. 

The Denver defense is pretty good, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their numbers look. Denver has faced Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young in the last two weeks. Those quarterbacks make a defense look really good. This is easily the best offense they have had to go against.

Bo Nix has done a really good job in this offense. The Broncos play calling has been great to build around Nix's strengths.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Broncos* The Denver Broncos defense has proven to be trustworthy. In fact, they rank first in the NFL by a wide margin in yards per play allowed at 4.4. This is an aggressive defense that has been giving quarterbacks fits.

Carolina enters this game with Bryce Young expected to start. Young was awful earlier this season before being benched for Andy Dalton. It would surprise me if he shows up and looks far better immediately now, especially against this level of a defense.

Denver has some very impressive wins over Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and the blowout of Las Vegas as well. This is a team that can win by margin.

Carolina's defense is extremely short handed and they weren't good to start with. They just can't hang around with the major losses they have taken. 

I'll lay the points. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* There's a good chance D.K. Metcalf will miss this game with an injury. He's a game changer at wide receiver and Geno Smith and company have a much lower upside on offense if he is less than 100 percent or misses this game.

I liked what I saw from the Seattle defense last week against Atlanta. Seattle is getting healthier on defense and they have a defensive-minded head coach who should do a good job game planning here.

The weather here is key as well. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph with rain throughout the day expected. The combination of wind and rain is very good for under bettors. It should make the game plans on offense more conservative.

The Buffalo Bills have been running the football quite a bit already. The Bills defense has been playing quite a bit better of late. Seattle is inconsistent on offense. Smith has been far better in domes and now he is out in the elements. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense will get Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back for this game. It's hard to overstate how much that helps this offense that has struggled of late. Those guys are the key playmakers for this team. 

The LA Chargers are throwing the ball more now that Justin Herbert is getting much healthier. The Chargers only scored 15 points because of some fluke things in their last game, but they put up 6.2 yards per play against the Cardinals.

The New Orleans defense is dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have given up 84 points in their last two games. 

The Chargers defense has trended worse in recent weeks. 

A total set this low with a mediocre defense and a terrible defense makes very little sense. It is on a fast track with no bad weather to worry about. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Jameis Winston is the new quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. I consider Winston a significant upgrade from DTR and a clear upgrade from Watson as well. Winston is a guy who is willing to take shots down the field. Winston is an 'over' type quarterback too. He can get big plays for his team and he can throw pick sixes as well. 

The Ravens defense has given up the most explosive passing plays of any team in the NFL. They may now be without star Marlon Humphrey as well. Baltimore's defense is 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Baltimore's offense is the best offense in the NFL. The Ravens are so well balanced. Lamar Jackson is playing great football, and Derrick Henry is healthy and running the ball really well. The Ravens are averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense which is easily first in the NFL.

The Cleveland defense is right in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories for the season. 

This total is set too low considering the changes at quarterback for the Browns and the elite offense from Baltimore.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense is clearly more capable under Drake Maye. He takes more chances down the field and is capable of keeping plays alive with his legs. Totals have to be adjusted upward some for the Patriots with Maye compared to Brissett. 

The New England defense that was expected to be decent this year has been bad. They are 25th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed 41 points and 32 points in their last two games.

This is a get right spot for the New York Jets. They couldn't get it going much on offense against a good Steelers defense, but Aaron Rodgers and company should look a lot better on offense here. Davante Adams has to help the offense as a whole and I think we will see it some here.

The Jets defense has been middle of the pack in the last few games. 

A temperature in the mid 50's and just 7 mph winds is a good setup here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has really impressed so far this year. Liam Coen is doing a great job putting together a system that helps put Baker Mayfield in a situation where he can succeed. Mike Evans is elite and the Bucs scheme has been great. 

Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per play for the season at 6.9 yards per play. The Ravens are averaging 7.3 yards per play in their last three games. Lamar Jackson is rolling right now, and the Ravens have plenty of weapons to get the ball to now. 

The Ravens defense has allowed the most plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. Baltimore's defense hasn't been up to par compared to its defensive unit in recent years. Baltimore is 22nd in yards per play allowed this year.

These are two top six or so offenses and two defenses who are bottom half of the NFL right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Steelers have chosen to go with Russell Wilson at quarterback in this one. It kind of surprises me since they are 4-2 with Justin Fields under center. Also, the Steelers offensive line has cluster injuries. The Jets should be able to get a lot of pressure on Wilson. He's no longer nearly as mobile as he was in the past, and I think that pressure will bother him here. Wilson could certainly be rusty as well.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't played consistently well for the Jets. He does get a nice new weapon in Adams, but the Steelers defensive front should be able to get into the backfield a lot here as well. The Steelers still have a pretty good pass rush and the middle of the defensive line is good against the run.

I think both defenses will create negative plays here and get the opposition behind the sticks.

The under is 32-10 in the last 42 Sunday Night Football games. The under is 6-0 in the 6 Sunday Night games so far this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have been fantastic on offense. Jayden Daniels has been better than anyone could have expected in his rookie season. Daniels is the ultimate dual threat quarterback. He has plenty of weapons around him both in the running and passing game as well.

Carolina is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Panthers weren't good defensively to start with, but now with major defensive injuries they are in a terrible spot. Carolina has absolutely no pass rush at this point. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays.

Andy Dalton has come in and made this Panthers offense decent, which is a huge upgrade from what they were earlier in the season under Bryce Young. The Commanders defense has a bottom three pass rush as well, so Dalton should have plenty of time.

Four of the Panthers first six games have finished with 57 total points or more. The Commanders have seen four of their first six games finish with 53 points or more.

Washington should score a lot, and I think the Panthers can score quite a few here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing 6.1 yards per play in their last three games. The Panthers easily moved the ball on them. The Commanders dominated this defense. The Ravens torched this defense. 

I'm not going to pretend the New York Giants without Nabers are as good as the Commanders or Ravens on offense. I still think they can score enough here though. The Bengals only have one defensive linemen (Hendrickson) getting any pressure right now. The Bengals secondary lost Dax Hill to injury and he was playing the best of anyone in this secondary.

On the other side, the Bengals offense is rolling of late. Cincinnati is averaging 6.7 yards per play in their last three games (3rd best in the NFL). Joe Burrow is having a special season and he has his full group of wide receivers healthy now. Erick All Jr. has been a nice addition to the offense at tight end. I don't think the Giants have the secondary to consistently slow down this Bengals passing attack.

The scoring in the NFL was up quite a bit last week. Getting the ball on the 30 yard line on kickoffs is a clear help to the offenses. This is a low total for a Bengals game with no apparent weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Lions* The Dallas Cowboys are expected to be without Micah Parsons, Erick Kendricks, and DeMarcus Lawrence. That is three of their top four defenders missing this game. The Cowboys just don't have the depth to hold down strong opposing offenses when they are in this shape. 

Detroit's offense is rounding into form. Jared Goff is best in a dome and on the fast track. The Lions running game is one of the best in the NFL. Detroit's offensive line is a major strength. 

The Detroit defense has a good pass rush and with the Cowboys offensive line banged up, I think the Lions can get pressure on Dak Prescott. Dallas should score a decent amount here, but I don't think they can keep up with Detroit. 

Dallas deserves credit for beating the Steelers late Sunday night, but the Steelers don't present the same mismatches the Lions do against the very shorthanded Cowboys.

The Cowboys have already lost at home to the Saints and the Ravens. 

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The Houston Texans have a good record this year, but on a down to down basis they have underachieved. C.J. Stroud is very good and he's bailed them out of some tough spots. Stroud will now have to do it without star wide receiver Nico Collins. The Texans offensive numbers have dropped off drastically without Collins in there in the past. 

New England will start Drake Maye in this game. Jacoby Brissett had just struggled too much for him to stay under center. Maye has a high upside and he can make some of the plays that Brissett couldn't. 

The Patriots defense is still a pretty decent defense that is capable of keeping them in games. This is a very low total and 7 points is a pretty big spread for a team to be getting at home in today's NFL. 

Houston has won four games, but all of their wins have been very close. They haven't won a game this year by more than six points. 

I'll take the points with the underdog.

Take New England. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have loads of injuries on offense. Rashee Rice was injured this past Sunday and he will miss significant time with what appears to be a major knee injury. Rice had been Patrick Mahomes' favorite target by a wide margin this year. Pacheco is still out for the Chiefs as is Hollywood Brown. 

On the Saints side, Kamara is playing with injured ribs. Chris Olave has an injured foot. Taysom Hill was banged up too. The offensive line is badly banged up. The Chiefs defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here.

Steve Spagnuolo is an excellent defensive coordinator who will put a lot of heat on Derek Carr. Carr is good with time, but under pressure looks very poor much of the time. 

Dennis Allen is a defensive minded coach and his teams games have gone under the total at a rate higher than 56% in his time in the league.

The Chiefs have been a very good under team when they are favored, especially playing at home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Packers* The Green Bay Packers have a lot of skill position talent on offense. When Jordan Love was out they weren't able to produce at the level they normally do. Green Bay started slow last week with Love back, but that is to be expected. They come on strong against a good Vikings team late in the game. I expect Love and the offense to be better from the start in this one. 

The LA Rams are as banged up as any team in the NFL. Without Cooper Kupp and Nacua, Stafford has arguably the worst group of wide receivers in the NFL. The offensive line of the Rams is severely shorthanded as well.

The Rams have fought hard and been more competitive at times than expected, but there are several levels of difference between a healthy Packers team and a banged up Rams team. 

I'll lay the short number.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has been the best defense in the NFL so far this season. Early in the season it was easy to doubt them, but the Broncos have proven it now in multiple spots. They held a pretty good Jets rushing attack to just 64 rushing yards last week. They held Tampa Bay to 7 points two weeks ago. They held the Jets to 9 points last week.

Denver plays at a slow pace on offense and they don't take many shots down the field with Bo Nix. Nix had only 60 yards passing on 25 pass attempts last week. The Broncos are 29th in the NFL in yards per play.

Las Vegas held Cleveland to just 4.2 yards per play last week. The Raiders offense has been inconsistent at best. They don't have enough threats down the field. 

I see this as a buttoned up game where there a lot of runs and short passes. Three Denver games in a row have stayed under this very low total. I think this will be a fourth straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions have been downgraded quite a bit in the marketplace. They have one of the better home field advantages in the NFL. The Seattle Seahawks have played very well and come in 3-0 here. Still, I can't help but wonder if Seattle has been overvalued a bit based on who they have played against.

Seattle is 3-0 and the defense is clearly improved. At the same time, Seattle's defense has had to face Bo Nix in his first NFL game. They then faced Jacoby Brissett and the Pats offense that is one of the worst in the NFL. They then took on the Miami Dolphins with Skylar Thompson at quarterback with Tua injured. 

They are stepping up in class a bunch taking on the Detroit Lions led by Jared Goff. The Lions have a great group of pass catchers and good depth at running back. They'll test the Seattle defense much more than any of these other teams have thus far.

Seattle has upset the Lions in recent years, and this Detroit team should be focused and ready to go in a Monday night showcase game.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Buffalo Bills have played good football this year, but I feel like the market has gotten very high on them considering the many factors that go into this handicap. Buffalo is coming off a blowout of Jacksonville, but the Jaguars imploded in that game. The Bills are a very good team, but they have a bunch of injuries. Buffalo is without Milano and Bernard who would be crucial against a guy like Lamar Jackson who puts a ton of pressure on the linebackers.

Buffalo also comes into this game off a short week. The Bills go to take on a Ravens team that is 1-2, but they are still a very good team. Baltimore dominated much of the game at Dallas last week. They were a toe away from OT with Kansas City in week one as well. 

I think this game means more to the Ravens with their slow start. If they go to 1-3 it makes the path to reaching the playoff much more difficult. The Ravens come home where they have been very tough to beat and get a national television audience. They are in a rest advantage against this Bills team. Baltimore knows this is a team they could meet in the playoffs. 

Take Baltimore here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders haven't punted in their last two games. Jayden Daniels and this Washington Commanders offense have made it to where Tress Way hasn't been needed in the punting game. Jayden Daniels has been clutch with his throwing ability on the deep ball and using his legs a lot as well. He is the ultimate dual threat quarterback.

Arizona's Kyler Murray is finally fully healthy again too and he is playing much better. It helps him to have improved weapons on the outside. The Cardinals are 9th in the NFL in yards per play so far this season. 

These two defenses are both subpar. There just isn't that much talent on either stop unit. Arizona is 19th in yards per play allowed, but I expect that number to get worse throughout the year as well. Washington is second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bengals put up 7.3 yards per play on them last week.

This one being played in a dome with the total coming down to the key number of 49, I like the value to the over. I see both offenses having big play ability throughout. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cincinnati* The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-3. This is a team many felt could make a deep playoff run this year. The Bengals offense has gotten going the last couple weeks, but the defense has let them down. It is extremely difficult to make the playoffs after starting 0-3. There would be no playoffs if they go to 0-4. 

Carolina is coming off a blowout win at Las Vegas. The Raiders appeared to quit in that contest. There's no doubt that Carolina is better with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Still, Carolina really lacks weapons on the outside. Adam Thielen is now out with an injury so another veteran reliable guy is gone. 

The look ahead line before the week was Bengals -7.5. A big adjustment has been made. The Bengals have a good defensive coordinator, and I think there will be good adjustments made. The Panthers don't have Jayden Daniels or McLaurin to break big plays like the Commanders.

Joe Burrow now has Chase and Higgins and that makes this Bengals passing attack one of the toughest in the NFL to slow down. I don't think the Panthers can do much to slow them down here.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2 and their backs are against the wall. Cincinnati cannot afford another lackluster performance like they had in week one. Cincinnati lost but covered last week against Kansas City. The Bengals probably should have won that game, and with the way the Chiefs have looked in their other games, that speaks to the Bengals having a nice upside.

Cincinnati has a huge advantage when throwing the football. The Commanders secondary is one of the worst in the NFL. Joe Burrow looked to get in a nice rhythm last week, and I would expect a strong game from him here. Burrow and the Bengals have been bad in weeks 1 and 2, but Burrow is 29-14 ATS in the regular season as a starting quarterback from week 3 to the end of the regular season.

Washington has some ability to move the ball here, but I think Daniels could turn it over some too against an opportunistic Bengals defense. Cincinnati has a great defensive coordinator who should have a good scheme.

I expect a strong effort from Cincinnati in this must win game.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions more than doubled the Tampa Bay Bucs in yardage last week. They just couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They moved the ball well between the 20's. I think Jared Goff and this Lions offense are a tough matchup for Arizona on the fast track here. The Cardinals defense is below average and I think they lack the playmakers in the secondary to keep the Lions quiet throughout this game. 

Arizona looks like a completely different offense this year. It is evident that Kyler Murray is much healthier than he was last year. He looks like a completely different quarterback. It sure helps to add a star wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. James Conner is running it well also.

Both of these teams have coaches who are willing to be aggressive at times on offense in late downs and I think that is a benefit to the over in this game. 

I see plenty of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have made the move to Andy Dalton. If they wanted to be competitive, they had to make the move. Bryce Young was just struggling far too much. We saw the market react by moving toward Carolina and the over as soon as the move was announced. I think that is justified. Andy Dalton is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Gardner Minshew and the Raiders aren't great, but they are good enough against subpar secondaries like Carolina.

This is a very low total for a game with two poor defenses involved. The two teams are both bottom 10 defenses in the league. They are 25th and 27th in the league in yards per play allowed thus far.

Early in the season (September/October) when we see totals of 42.5 or lower in a non divisional game the over has been a great move in the last decade. This particular game is an even stronger over system with this one being played inside at Allegiant Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Colts* The Indianapolis Colts are 0-2, and they absolutely cannot afford a loss here. I still feel the Colts are a well coached team, and I like their chances of circling the wagons here. 

The Chicago Bears have some major issues as a team. Caleb Williams is getting terrible protection from the offensive line. The Bears were extremely fortunate to win in week one against the Titans. The Bears had just 148 total yards in that game. Turnovers allowed them to win that contest. The Bears averaged just 3.1 yards per play last week and for much of the game against the Texans they could only get first downs because of penalties. 

The Colts had 6.4 yards per play against a pretty good Green Bay defense last week, but turnovers did them in. The Colts also had 7.0 yards per play against the Texans. I like the Colts offensive scheme better than the Bears, and I think they will have a good game plan to help Anthony Richardson have success.

The Colts are desperate. I like their coaching staff more. Caleb Williams has a bad offensive line and he has a lot to prove.

Take Indianapolis.  

*3 Star Play on Texans* The Houston Texans have loads of offensive weapons. Though the Chicago Bears defense is fine, I do think the Texans have too many pass catchers for the Bears secondary to hold them in check. Stroud is a star and the Texans offense had the second most total yards in the NFL in week one. 

Caleb Williams is clearly capable of special things, but he played poorly in his first game. Williams didn't even throw for 100 yards in game one. Williams doesn't have much depth around him at wide receiver. A couple of those top receivers are injured and will either miss this game or be limited. 

The Bears can't count on winning or covering with defensive touchdowns or special teams touchdowns all the time. I don't think their offense can trade scores with the Texans.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs have major cluster injury issues in the secondary. They have four defensive backs injured. The Bucs secondary has some pretty good pieces to start with, but they lack depth. I think that will show in this one. 

Detroit has the weapons to take advantage of this weakness especially on the fast track in Detroit. Jared Goff with St. Brown and Sam Laporta and company should have a big game here. The Lions also have a good running attack. Detroit has great balance as an offense.

The Tampa Bay offense put up 37 points last week. Baker Mayfield has talked about feeling great in new OC Liam Coen's scheme. The Bucs have really underrated weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is a star and is a tough cover for anyone. Godwin is more of a possession receiver, but he comes up with big plays. White is an explosive back too. 

The Lions defense really struggled with this Bucs offense in the playoffs last year. That game went over this total. This game means less and with the new rules in the NFL the scoring should be a bit higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys host the New Orleans Saints here in week two. The Saints looked fantastic in week one, but this isn't the Carolina Panthers. The big question mark for the New Orleans Saints this year is their offensive line. Carolina didn't test that offensive line much because of their poor pass rush. What does Dallas do extremely well with Micah Parsons and company? They are great at getting after the quarterback. Carr has consistently struggled under pressure and he should be feeling the heat in this one.

Dak Prescott is 31-12 ATS when favored by 6 points or more in the regular season. The average ATS margin is +5.72 points. The Cowboys tend to take care of business in these spots. 

Marshon Lattimore didn't practice all week for the Saints. He will either play through a tough injury or miss this game. 

Dallas should be highly focused on this game after the Saints smashed the Panthers last week. I think this one will go quite a bit differently.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play Under* I would expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to play slowly, and be very run heavy compared to the average NFL team this year. Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith who will lean on the running game. I don't think the running game will be very efficient either. Russell Wilson isn't a good quarterback at this stage of his career either.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a major injury and didn't play any in the preseason. He is likely to have some rust. The Steelers defense is a really tough one to go up against when they are healthy, as they are right now. 

The Falcons defense upgraded by getting Judon in the offseason and locking in two very good safeties. 

I expect this to be slower paced and without fireworks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Panthers* Dennis Allen is one of my lowest rated NFL coaches. Allen's teams have been horrible as a favorite as well. His teams are 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite. Derek Carr's teams are 21-37-2 ATS as a favorite. A double negative on the Saints.

I expect the Panthers to be much improved this year. Canales is a good offensive coach, and it is the second year for Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded the pass rush in the offseason, and the Saints offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. Carr struggles a lot under pressure. 

The Panthers got more analytics based in the offseason, and I would expect them to be more aggressive this year.

This is a very low total and we are getting more than a field goal. I expect this game to be very close.

Take Carolina. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The Cincinnati Bengals are a good team, but they have consistently started very slowly. Under Zac Taylor, they are 3-7 ATS in games 1 and 2 of the season. They have an average ATS margin of -6.25 points, so they haven't been very close to covering the number most of the time. As a favorite during this time, the Bengals are 0-5 ATS. 

Joe Burrow is coming back from a major injury. Is he 100%? Tee Higgins missed practice on Friday and is questionable to play. JaMarr Chase is questionable and said himself he would be limited if he plays in this game due to his contract situation. The Bengals don't come into this game in great shape. 

The Patriots aren't a good team, but big dogs in week one have been very profitable. If you just blindly bet all 6.5 point dogs or larger in Week 1 in the NFL since 2006, you'd be hitting 61% ATS.

The Patriots still have a solid defense and have a new coach they'll be playing hard for in week one.

Take the Patriots. 

*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high.

The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well.

The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. 

A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over.

Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. 

Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys were fantastic at home this year. Dallas has won 16 games in a row at home. Many of those games have been blowouts. 

Green Bay has some good things going on, but they are far behind Dallas. Green Bay is a really young team. The Packers are also very banged up. Jaire Alexander is a game time decision and Christian Watson is questionable too. AJ Dillon is expected out for this one. Alexander being banged up even if he does play is a huge negative against a great Dallas passing attack.

The Packers defense has been torched by some bad offenses this year. We can't just remember the past week (where they did play well against the Bears). This Green Bay defense is weak against the run and Alexander is their star in the secondary. 

Prescott and Lamb and company should be far too much for the Green Bay defense. Jordan Love and the Packers offense can likely move the ball and score some here, but Dallas should have way too many weapons for Green Bay to trade scores.

Take Dallas. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. 

Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid.

The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. 

The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Giants* The New York Giants have been playing much better football of late. Tyrod Taylor isn't a star, but he is a quality quarterback who tends to make enough plays to keep his team in the game. The Giants played the Eagles tightly two weeks ago and then lost by just a point and covered against the Rams.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a highly questionable motivation spot here. The Eagles need Dallas to lose to the Commanders in a game where Dallas is a massive favorite. If Dallas is winning in that game, I think there is a real chance the Eagles will start resting players in the second half of this game. The Eagles have really fallen off badly of late, and competing hard until the end of this one likely means less than staying healthy and getting ready for the playoffs.

I think the situational spot is a strong one for the Giants. This should be a tight game and I'm happy to take this many points.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been playing hard in these games late in the season. I expect them to put in effort again here.

This could be the final game in New England for Bill Belichick and I do think the players want to send him out with a win if it is. New England has two outright upsets in their last four games, and they won the box score against the Bills in a strong effort last week. They have covered four straight games.

The New York Jets defense is worn out and banged up. The Jets offense puts them in such bad situations, and we can expect more of those woes again this week. New York struggled badly against the Pats defense earlier this year. I expect the same here.

Bailey Zappe has shown he can help move the Patriots better here late in the season.

I like the spot situationally.

Take New England.