Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
309 Marshall at Florida Atlantic The sharp books are starting to show money on the road underdog and we agree. Florida Atlantic has lived off turnovers the last four games with a +8 margin. It so happened the Owls won each of those contests. But looking a bit deeper we see that Middle Tennessee last week had 95 more yards and five more first downs than the Owls. It took a +3 turnover edge to win that contest. When looking at Marshall the Thundering Herd have only turned the ball over eight times all season. Marshall runs the ball well at 5.5 yards per carry. The Owls have only slowed down Wagner and Charlotte on the ground this year. Facing closely equal schedules Marshall is +0.52 in yards per play, while Florida International is -0.77. With over a full yard advantage per play, and the ability to move the ball on the ground, we can’t pass up this road underdog. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-17-19 | Islanders v. Jets -123 | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
42 New York Rangers at New Jersey Strange schedule for the Rangers to start the season as they have played just three games to six for the Devils. New York has had the last four days off which would be good during the mid to late season grind, but right now it looks like a negative. New Jersey is the only winless team in the league, so this is a squad you know will be giving it all tonight in front of the home fans. Before the season we projected New Jersey to have 93 points and the Rangers 85. The start of the season for both these teams give us nice value on the host. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees +140 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
912 Houston at NY Yankees Cole & Severino This handicap all comes down to value because you simply cannot make a case against Gerrit Cole. He’s been as dominant as any pitcher we have followed, with his lone weakness being the long ball. He has given up 29 homers in 212.1 innings this season. Players are just coming to bat and swinging from their heels against him. That said, this line from a value standpoint is all Yankees. The last two seasons New York in 9-7 vs the Astros. Only Tampa Bay has had similar success and they took Houston to the limit in the previous series. Luis Severino has put up game scores of 60, 70, 49 and 56 since coming back from his season long injury. The Yankees are better against right handed starters 74-42 vs 71-47. While Houston is very good on the road at 47-36, New York is 59-24 at home. No doubt Cole has a large edge on the mound, but Severino is capable of matching him. The Yankees in this price range at home is a bargain we haven’t seen all year. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -157 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
908 NY Yankees at Houston Paxton & Verlander Paxton faced the Astros twice this season with game scores of 57 and 28, the latter in this ballpark. Verlander also faced the Yankees twice with game scores of 64 and 50. The key to this handicap is how well the Astros have hit lefties this season. Overall 39-11 vs southpaws and 63-22 overall at home. It’s rare we get Verlander and his 2.34 home ERA in this price range. While James Paxton has an ERA a full run higher on the road. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
906 Washington at St Louis Scherzer & Wainwright The last two seasons St Louis is a combined 10-5 vs the Nats. Mad Max has faced the Cards twice this year with game scores of 51 and 55. Adam Wainwright in his two starts against Washington this season produced game scores of 61 and 56. Over the last seven starts Scherzer has a game score average of 56, while Wainwright’s is 57. Both teams are very equal vs righties as the Bats are 72-53 and the Cards are 74-58. Washington is 46-39 on the road, while St Louis is 51-33 at home. Adam Wainwright has pitched much better at home than on the road this year. He posts a 2.56 ERA at Busch Stadium and 6.22 ERA away from home. All his advanced numbers also show he favors this mound. Surprised by this very public line as we made this game much shorter. Great value on the home dog. PLAY ST LOUIS CARDINALS |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
110 Virginia at Miami Fl We were high on the Cavaliers coming into the season, but just haven’t seen enough out of this club to trust them on the road here. Our numbers show these two teams have played exactly the same schedules strength wise. Virginia has played 3 of 5 at home with an average game score of 93.2. Miami played a neutral site game along with three at home and one away. The Hurricanes have an average game score of 97.3. When we break down the numbers we find the Cavaliers with a 0.99 yards per play advantage, while Miami is plus 1.79. The host is going with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback this week. He led the Hurricanes back last week after falling behind Virginia Tech early. In that game Miami outgained the Hokies by 226 yards and ten first downs. It was a -5 turnover margin that cost them the game. That’s the first time all season the Hurricanes lost the turnover battle. Miami has outgained every opponent this season including Florida in the season opener. Miami is a much better team than the 2-3 record. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
914 St Louis at Atlanta Flaherty & Foltynewicz All hands on deck for both teams in this win or go home game in the National League. You couldn’t ask for two hotter starters as Flaherty has a 1.24 ERA and 75 average game score his last seven starts. Folty has a 1.51 ERA and 64 game score average over the same time frame. With an off day yesterday both bullpens should be in solid shape, with the starters other than Keuchel and Hudson all available. Look for a lot of mix and match here if either starter gets in trouble. But we don’t expect that as runs will come at a premium. PLAY UNDER |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
910 Houston at Tampa Bay Verlander and Castillo RUN LINE PLAY The Rays are going to make it a bullpen day and we like the thinking. Houston has pounded lefties this season, while having a comparable record vs righties as the Rays. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough will likely only get two innings, which is much better than the four to five innings he would normally work filling in for an opener in the regular season. That leaves Poche and McKay as the only other lefties in the bullpen. Houston is 70-45 vs righties while the Rays are 65-43. Houston is 47-35 on the road while Tampa is 49-33 at home. The Stros are 22-8 over the past month while the Rays are 20-10. All the numbers are comparable except that Houston sends Justin Verlander and a likely Cy Young to the mound. Verlander has 32 starts this year, all on four days or more rest. He just threw 100 pitches on October 4th. So now on three days rest the Astros are bringing him back early for the first time all season. This line is being based on him pitching his usual length, but it would not surprise us at all if he is on some type of a pitch count. With that knowledge this line is extremely high. The Astros deserve to be favored, but there is plenty of value on the home dog here. Instead of calling for the outright Rays victory, we will take the generous 1 1/2 runs in a game with a 7 1/2 run total. PLAY TAMPA BAY +1 1/2 RUN LINE |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
458 Jacksonville at Carolina Surprised by the line movement on this game as we have the Panthers as the higher rated squad. Just from an average game grade Carolina is two points better, which should make this line a bargain at the current price. The Panthers are an improved offense when you take away the games started by the injured Cam Newton. He didn’t have the ability to throw down field or use his legs. By taking out those contests the Panthers are an even bigger favorite here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -5.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
459 Minnesota at NY Giants The Vikings have an average game score of 83 on the road, but that was against the much improved Packers defense, and the reigning #1 stop unit of the Bears. We all know Kirk Cousins struggles against winning teams, but now he gets to face the easiest opponent of the season. The Giants have gotten new life with the change at quarterback, but after facing the defenses of Tampa Bay and Washington, this is a huge upgrade. Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the ball, and are a solid road favorite play in the Mike Zimmer regime. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-06-19 | Bills +3 v. Titans | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
469 Buffalo at Tennessee This Buffalo defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. The last two meetings with the Titans resulted in 13-12 and 14-13 victories for Buffalo. Based on the weakness of these offenses, we can see a similar outcome here. We simply want no part of this Tennessee offense facing the type of pressure the Bills bring. This is the best stop unit Marriota and company have faced this year. We expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
356 Iowa at Michigan Turnovers and regression are the key handicap in this contest of Big 10 contenders. We’ve witnessed for ourselves the problems the Wolverines have had holding on to the football. So far the count is three interceptions and 12 fumbles. The later being the major outlier. Overall Michigan sits at -4 turnovers this season. Iowa on the other hand has played near perfect ball, losing one turnover all season. The Hawkeyes overall +5 turnover margin is one of the leaders in the country. That nine turnover differential is one reason money is coming in against the host. Before the season started the Games of the Year plays offered by the various sports books had Michigan listed as a 10 1/2 point favorite. This major move is based more on turnover differential than talent advantages. This is a cheap number for the host. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-05-19 | Utah State +28 v. LSU | 6-42 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
393 Utah State at LSU Huge opportunity for the Aggies to make a name for themselves on the national stage. Utah State has been at its best since 2009 as a road underdog with a 25-15 ATS mark, 9-2 ATS as a double digit road dog. LSU has played a two point tougher FBS schedule, yet the game score numbers show this Mountain West underdog to be somewhat competitive here. The Aggies only allow 2.7 ypc which should slow down this LSU running game. The Tigers passing game is elite, but Utah State has a solid QB in Jordan Love who can put points on the board to keep this relatively close. Can Utah State win? Probably not, but it does have the athletes to battle with one of the best teams in college football. LSU is off a bye, but do you really think the focus was on this small team from out west? No, it’s on Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, the next three weeks. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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10-04-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks +103 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
034 Las Vegas at San Jose We lost with the Sharks on Wednesday as Erik Karlsson was a late scratch for the birth of his child. That mattered little as the Golden Knights clearly out hustled the Sharks all night. Now with a day off we return to San Jose, as we look for the Sharks to even this series at one apiece. The addition of Karlsson and the loss of Nate Schmidt here is the key. Schmidt only played three minutes in the opener before suffering a knee injury. The Knights struggled with him out of the lineup last year, due to a 20 game suspension. The Sharks really didn’t compete two days ago. We expect a different level of intensity here in front of the home crowd. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
918 Washington at Los Angeles Neither pitcher is prone to the long ball which is always a concern with a total in this range. Buehler has an excellent 11.20 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio at home. His WHIP is a microscopic 0.887 as he simply does not allow baserunners in Dodger Stadium. LA doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. 30-22 vs southpaws vs 76-34 against right-handed starters. Corbin has an unbelievable 0.59 ERA in his last five starts against this squad. In 30.1 innings of work only 13 hits allowed. We lean with the Dodgers here but the better play is to look for a low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-02-19 | Sharks +160 v. Golden Knights | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
7 San Jose at Las Vegas One of the most intense rivalries in hockey gets the season underway tonight in Vegas. The teams just faced each other in the preseason and 114 minutes of penalties ensued. Evander Kane of the Sharks is suspended for the contest tonight. This game has been circled by the Knights as the Sharks knocked them out of the playoffs last season. While the team is in major revenge mode, the game will be played with as much vitriol by the visitor. By our numbers six points in the final standings separate these two squads. That’s just three wins better over an 82 game season. The current numbers have the Knights favored by much more than what the talent levels suggest. After Vegas pounded the Sharks just a few days ago, both on the scoreboard and literally, we side with the visitor at an inflated price. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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10-02-19 | Rays +121 v. A's | Top | 5-1 | Win | 121 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
913 Tampa Bay at Oakland The Rays sit at 13-8 the past three seasons against the A’s. Charlie Morton faced Oakland twice this year with game scores of 78 and 65. League average once again is 50. What we really like about Morton is his ability to reduce home runs. He permitted just 15 in 194.2 innings this season. Sean Manaea has looked solid since coming back from a long IL stint. Tampa has a 32-25 mark against lefties this season, similar percentage to righties. But the A’s rake against lefties with a 35-14 record, but are less successful against right-handed starters at 62-51. While Oakland is a very good 52-29 at home, the Rays are among the league best on the road with a 48-33 mark. This game looks to be a dead even contest, yet we are getting a plus price on the road underdog. Can’t pass up the veteran Morton in this price range. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Panthers +4.5 v. Texans | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
251 Carolina at Houston Carolina has had a productive offense this season, despite the starting QB being limited because of injury. Now with a healthy backup behind center we look for the Panthers to build on its success last week. Defensively the Panthers are 2nd in the league in yards per play. They are especially strong defensing the pass, allowing just 166 yards per game through the air. Offensively Houston struggles to protect Watson, allowing a sack rate just short of 13% every time he goes back to pass. That’s 30th in the league. The Texans have been terrible stopping the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry. We feel the Panthers are the better team, and have proven themselves away from home. This is a more than fair number we will take advantage of. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
180 East Carolina at Old Dominion In FBS games Old Dominion has looked much better than the Pirates. When comparing yards per game ODU is much better than East Carolina. The Pirates were out gained by 236 yards at NC State, and 246 yards at Navy. The Monarchs played at Virginia Tech losing the yardage by 79, and won the yardage last week at Virginia by 26. We were on Old Dom last week and view them as a bet on team. They are holding the opposition to 2.74 yards per carry. Which is key as East Carolina has a weak passing game. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -12 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
174 Virginia at Notre Dame The Cavaliers have played three FBS games with a +3 combined turnover advantage. In those games they out yarded the opposition by just 107 total yards, despite playing 2 of 3 at home. Virginia averaged 3.9 ypc against Pittsburgh, 3.8 npc against Florida State and only 2.4 ypc last week vs Old Dominion. Needless to say if this team can’t run this week, they can’t compete. Defensively Virginia has yet to force a fumble, while ND has forced ten. The Irish in three games have a turnover margin of -4. We were really impressed by this team last week giving Georgia all they could handle. In fact, they were only out gained by 18 despite giving the Bulldogs four extra possessions via turnover. With only Bowling Green on deck we look for the Irish to bounce back in a big way. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
202 USC at Washington In our opinion the Trojans are coming off a nationally televised victory that they didn’t deserve. Utah had 11 more first downs and out gained the Trojans by 76 yards. USC is 1-6 as a road underdog under Clay Helton. They are 8-9 straight up on the road in his tenure. Despite playing 3 of 4 games at home USC is being beaten in ypc by 1.39. Washington has out gained every opponent it faced, and owns a +1.12 ypc on the season. The Huskies defense has intercepted more balls (4), than TD’s allowed (3). USC is down to its fourth string QB coming out of the spring. We doubt this offense has much success against this quality Huskies defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +4.5 v. California | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
111 Arizona State at California Last week we faded an Arizona State team that was ranked 24th in the country. It paid off as Colorado won outright. This week we fade another overrated PAC12 team as Cal enters this contest ranked 15th. Knowing how to read the betting markets is a key to making a living in this industry. Here we see the ranked California team being installed as a 5 1/2 point favorite as an opener. Since that time a steady stream of money has come in on the unranked visitor. And we fully agree with that market move. Cal has been out gained in all three FBS contests. The key to the Bears victories was a +3 turnover margin. That’s not likely to continue this week as Arizona State has an attacking defense that has already forced 13 fumbles on the season. The Sun Devils are also allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. A solid number in what we all expect to be a low scoring game. With Arizona State taking care of the ball with just one interception on the season, we find plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
104 Navy at Memphis This line has bounced around since opening at 11 1/2 on Sunday. It went as low as 10 but was quickly gobbled up. We make this line 15 so we have plenty of value on the host. Navy coming off a rare down season with a 3-10 mark, started the year with impressive wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina. But despite the 87-17 combined winning margin we haven’t really been impressed. Especially considering how disappointing the Pirates of East Carolina have been. Neither of those teams has an offense to challenge this questionable Midshipmen defense. Memphis is coming in off a bye, which gives the team extra time to prepare for the option. That’s a key ingredient in this handicap. The Tigers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five seasons coming in off a bye. Mike Norvell has really had his team ready with extra preparation time. He’s covered the number by a combined 56 1/2 points in his five games after a bye. Memphis is also looking to avenge a 22-21 loss last year in Annapolis. With Navy riding a ten game straight up losing streak on the road, we fire on the home favorite here. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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09-23-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +132 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
956 St Louis at Arizona Wainwright & Young While money has come in on the Cardinals early, the value is now on the home Diamondbacks. St Louis clinched a playoff spot with the victory over the rival Cubs yesterday. They now have a three game lead over Milwaukee with six games to go in the season. All is right in Cardinal land, so we take advantage of an overconfident bunch here. Wainwright is pitching his best ball of the season, but four of his last six starts came against possible playoff foes Washington and Milwaukee. Not sure that same intensity will be there against Arizona. Alex Young has stayed under the national radar but he has posted a solid 3.27 ERA in his 74.1 innings of work this year. The Diamondbacks are 7-4 in his starts this season. While the Cards are 73-52 against right-handed starters this season, they are only 16-15 vs lefties. We al know how hot St Louis has been, but Arizona has held their own at 17-13 the past month. Nice price with the home dog here who continues to play good baseball while others have thrown in the towel. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much. The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-17-19 | Padres v. Brewers -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
954 San Diego at Milwaukee Paddock & Woodruff Brandon Woodruff returns from the injured list and is expected to be on a limited pitch count here. Which is all well and good as lefty Gio Gonzalez will follow him to the mound. Chris Paddock has been excellent in his last three starts, which is what is keeping this line very attractive for the host. But Paddock over his last seven starts is slightly below average with a 49 average game score. The Brewers are chasing the wild card game and have won 10 of 11 in its pursuit. The Padres on the other hand are just playing out the string of yet another disappointing season. With a lefty coming in early it’s tough for the Padres to set a lineup here for the full game. That means some of the starters will be in for a short stay for San Diego. Great price on a hot team at home. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
904 Washington at St Louis Strasburg & Hudson Big money move overnight toward the Nationals, but now the value is clearly on the host. St Louis has won 8 of 11 meetings the past two seasons. When comparing both starters the numbers are almost identical, and impressive. So really tough to make a decision based on that factor. Both clubs far equally well vs right handed starters, so that’s a wash. The Nationals are 40-35 on the road, while the Cardinals are 47-28 at home. Slight edge to St Louis. Over the last month the teams have virtually the same record, with St Louis being a game better. Recent 10 and 20 game breakdowns are saying the same thing. So here we have a game that should be lined in the pick ‘em range, and yet the host is a sizable underdog based on early line movement. We will take the sizable value here as Dakota Hudson looks for his seventh straight game score of 58 or better. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
190 Florida State at Virginia The Seminoles survived last weeks 45-44 victory over Louisiana Monroe. After two games this Florida State defense has been on the field for 187 total plays. The Seminoles defense ranks 118th in the country in allowing explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Virginia on the other hand ranks 22nd in that same category. Despite entering play with a -1 turnover margin, the Cavaliers have outgunned the opposition by a combined 365 yards. The win over Pittsburgh 30-14 looks much better after the Panthers pounded the MAC favorite Ohio 20-10 last week. Florida State hasn’t fared well when getting hit in the face this season. The team gets off to a nice start, but once trouble starts this team has shown little character. Bronco Mendenhall always gets the best out of his players. And the host has the much more complete team. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-14-19 | Texas State +17.5 v. SMU | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
179 Texas State at SMU Coming off a game in which it outplayed Wyoming in a loss. We are willing to back under the radar Texas State to keep this one interesting. QB Frank Harris has posted a 71.7% completion rate on the season and has enough talent to keep this SMU offense off the field. SMU is off a solid win over North Texas, and has a step up game against instate host TCU next week. Nice spot and value on the instate underdog here. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-14-19 | Army -17 v. UTSA | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
141 Army at UTSA The Black Knights took the Wolverines to overtime last week. Despite the loss the Cadets were the better squad. Normally you would look for a letdown here from a normal football team, but military squads are much stronger mentally. Army only has Morgan State on deck, and you have to feel that last week will bring them in with positive momentum. The Road Runners have a conference game with North Texas on deck, after facing off with the Big 12 entrant Baylor. This will be the first time Texas San Antonio has faced off against an option squad. So how much prep will they have considering the spot. Keep in mind UTSA ranks 111th in explosiveness. Not a good sign when taking on a team that will dominate the clock. PLAY ARMY |
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09-13-19 | Padres -109 v. Rockies | 8-10 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
959 San Diego at Colorado Lucchesi & Hoffman Joey Lucchessi has been very consistent against the Rockies. His last five starts against them has produced an average game score of 56, including 71 and 61 his last two. The Rockies have struggled vs lefties all season with a 20-34 record. Jeff Hoffman has a 43 game score average his last seven starts. He has really been beaten by the long ball as of late allowing seven home runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
104 North Carolina at Wake Forest Tar Heels have gotten off to an impressive start with victories over South Carolina and Miami Florida. But going out on the road for your first true away game on a short week is going to be very difficult, especially after facing a physical Hurricanes stop unit. North Carolina was 0-6 SU last year and 2-9 SU the past two seasons. Only one road game last year was decided by less than seven points. Keep in mind despite the 28-25 home win over Miami, the Tar Heels were outgunned by 99 yards. Wake Forest is also off to a nice 2-0 start with wins over Utah State and Rice. This is a great spot for the Demon Deacons, off Rice and with Elon on deck. Dave Clawson has been a money maker since coming to Winston-Salem with a 32-26-2 spread record. After back to back three win seasons, his teams have won seven games or more the last three years. This squad can start the year 4-0 with a victory here. A huge season could be in store with Boston College, Louisville and Florida state upcoming. In fact, the game at Clemson in mid-November could be Wake’s only loss on the year. But we are getting way ahead of ourselves in that regard. Our numbers show Wake to be the better team and the scheduling spot gives us even more ammunition. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-12-19 | Braves -120 v. Phillies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
951 Atlanta at Philadelphia Teheran & Smyly Julio Tehran has been on a terrific run. In his last six starts five have been graded out at 59 or higher. His last two on the road were 67 and 69. He’s only permitted 17 home runs in 163.1 innings of work. Drew Smyly on the other had has really struggled with the long ball this year. He has allowed 29 in only 101.2 innings of work. In fact, the past three seasons the lefty has permitted 72 home run in 343.2 innings of work. In this ballpark that is the kiss of death. Atlanta is an impressive 22-11 vs southpaws this season, and 44-28 overall on the road. This number is very cheap. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-11-19 | Cardinals -144 v. Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
957 St Louis at Colorado Hudson & Senzatela Antonio Senzatela has been a punching bag as of late. In his last seven starts he owns an average game score of 24. His ERA during that time is 14.03. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 12 to 15. Dakota Hudson has been his polar opposite. The young righty has a 60 average game score and a 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts. He faced Colorado once this season and posted a 67 game score at home. He has never pitched in Coors Field, which is the only negative for the Cards. The Rockies are 41-50 vs righties and only 35-35 at home. St Louis is 66-49 vs right handed starters, and 35-37 on the road. Over the last month Colorado has won 9 games while the Cards have won 22. St Louis has every edge we look for in a game, as we see the Rockies playing out the string. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-11-19 | Braves -124 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
951 Atlanta at Philadelphia Keuchel & Eflin Zach Eflin has faced the Braves twice this season. In 5.2 innings he has permitted 12 earned runs with a combined game score of 15. He has permitted four home runs in those 5.2 innings of work. On the season Eflin has allowed 23 long balls in 140 innings. Not a good combination pitching in this ballpark. Dallas Keuchel isn’t prone to home runs as a ground ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons he’s permitted 30 home runs in 295.1 innings of work. The Braves are 68-45 vs righties, while the Phillies are just 16-22 vs left handed starters. With Atlanta having a better road record than the Phillies do at home, we don’t mind the road favorite price. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-09-19 | Yankees -110 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
961 New York at Boston Paxton & Rodriguez The Yankees have dominated the Sox this season 13-5. Paxton has produced a solid 56 average game score against Boston his last five starts. Rodriguez has a 43 average game score against the Yankees his last five starts. Paxton is on quite a roll as of late with an average game score of 62 his last seven starts overall. Eduardo Rodriguez himself is doing quite well with a 54 average game score his last seven overall. But here’s the real advantage for the visitor. The Yankees are an outstanding 29-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Sox have struggled vs southpaws with a 20-26 mark. New York is 41-28 on the road, while Boston has struggled in Fenway with a 36-38 record. Let the 2019 dominance of the Yankees continue on Monday. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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09-08-19 | Nationals v. Braves +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
906 Washington at Atlanta Scherzer & Soroka Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition. Mad Max though hasn’t faced the Braves yet this season. Mike Soroka on the other hand has a 54 average game score in three starts against the Nats. While Scherzer has been good at not allowing homers, about one per nine innings the past three seasons. Soroka has only given up 11 long balls in 178.1 innings of big league work. That is simply outstanding. In a game with a total of 8.5 runs, that statistic could be the key to victory. Washington is 58-46 vs righties, while the Braves are 67-44 against the same. The Bats are a solid 37-34 on the road, but Atlanta has a strong 47-27 home mark. Catching the Braves at home in a plus money situation looks very favorable. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
388 California at Washington Major revenge game here for the Huskies who lost 12-10 last year in Berkeley. Word out of Seattle is that former Georgia Bulldog Jacob Eason is making a strong case for this Huskies offense. Washington put up 47 points last week against a very good FCS program Eastern Washington. Eason has a 190 passer rating in that contest. We all know about this defense which held the opposition to just 4.2 yards per play. California only averaged 21.5 points per game a year ago, and managed just 27 last week against Cal Davis. The Bears ended last season scoring 15 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 games. Can’t see how Cal can score enough points to keep it close against this terrific Washington defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-07-19 | Tulane v. Auburn -17 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
372 Tulane at Auburn Now that this line has come into range we are going to pounce on this cheaply priced favorite. Tulane ran the ball right down the throat of the FIU defense last week, averaging 7.1 yards per carry on 49 attempts. That’s just what the Green Wave do. But that was against a smaller defense, not one of the biggest and fastest in the country like you find in the SEC. Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in college football. Last week the Tigers held the Ducks to just 2.7 yards per carry. A team with an NFL ready quarterback and a dangerous offense. Many will talk about the letdown after a last second victory. That is why this line has dropped. But we now have a huge point spread advantage, as this has been a huge reaction. No way this situation is worth five points or more in the betting line. This price is one hell of a bargain. PLAY AUBURN |
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09-07-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +110 | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
956 Chicago at Milwaukee Darvish & Gonzalez Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition, posting average game scores of 63 for Darvish and 62 for Gonzalez. But we prefer Gio and the Brewers here, as he is much less home run prone. On the season Gonzalez has permitted 8 home runs in 67.1 innings of work. The prior two years combined for 38 home runs in 372 innings. Darvish on the other hand has allowed 31 dingers in 152.1 innings this year. Along with 34 home runs in 226.2 combined innings in 2017 and 2018. In a game in which pitching should dominate, we want no part of the homer happy Darvish. Chicago also struggles vs lefties at 13-17 on the season, and are just 29-40 on the road this year. Look for the Brewers to shine here at a nice home price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
331 Nebraska at Colorado Nebraska struggled in a 35-21 win over South Alabama last week. Despite putting up 35 points the team only averaged 2.2 npc and 4.2 yards per play. It was the Cornhuskers defense that was dominant. It’s quite possible that the players looked past the Sun Belt entrant with Colorado revenge on deck. The Buffaloes beat Colorado State 52-31 but really struggled to put away a bad FBS team. The Rams ran for 4.2 npc and averaged 6.5 yards per play. While the Colorado offense looked impressive, it did so against a Colorado State defense that permitted 37 points per game a year ago and return just six defensive starters. Before last week our numbers had Nebraska to win this game by 8 points. This line has moved too much off last weeks results. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
317 Syracuse at Maryland What a difference in the line when you blow out a nobody 79-0. Maryland crushed Howard last week and now the markets are buying into the Terrapins. The same Maryland team who made a terrible higher of Mike Locksley as head coach. Sure he’s a solid recruiter, but he’s never shown the ability to lead a team. He was 2-26 at New Mexico before being fired. He was an assistant here and his teams never won more than seven games in any of his four years. Yes, he was offensive coordinator at Alabama the past two seasons, but just about any coach can have success there with that elite talent. Syracuse has a proven head coach in Dino Babers, who took this team from a four win squad in his first year to ten wins last season. Babers won 18 games in two seasons at Bowling Green. The Falcons won nine total in the three years since he has left. Before last week we had Syracuse rated eight points higher than the Terrapins. After each team shutout its opening week opponent, the market is saying Syracuse is just one point better? We don’t buy it. Plenty of added value on the visitor here. Btw, Babers is 9-3 ATS here as a road underdog. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-06-19 | Rangers +123 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 123 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
915 Texas at Baltimore Burke & Bundy Brock Burke has been excellent in his first three starts of his Major League career. He has an average game score of 61 and he has not permitted a homer in 18 innings of work. We love backing unknown lefties the first time through the league. Dylan Bundy on the other hand is a home run machine. He has permitted 93 long balls in 479.1 innings of work the past three seasons. He has permitted 26 in 138 innings this season. Texas is 44-46 vs righties, while the O’s are 19-34 vs southpaws. The Rangers have a better road record than the Orioles do at home 29-44 to 22-47. Nice payout price here for what looks to be a solid road underdog against an undeserving favorite. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
451 Green Bay at Chicago The Packers were a 7.4 pythagorean win team a year ago. That was with Mike McCarthy who was finally fired by Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers played with an injured knee all season. Between his improved health and a fresh offensive play calling outlook, we expect much better things from the Packers. Green Bay was 27th in the league in play-action passes a year ago. That number will rise significantly with the coaching change. Chicago had an 11.5 pythagorean win team last year. The Bears lost Vic Fangio after the season which should have an affect on that terrific defense from a year ago. This team was 20th in offensive DVOA and opponents will be more prepared for the running of Mitch Trubisky. The Packers have this game circled after not making the playoffs last two years, and the Bears are considered the class of the division. A solid handicapping angle for the opening week also puts us on the divisional road dog here. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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09-05-19 | Twins +141 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
971 Minnesota at Boston Perez & Eovaldi Martin Perez hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2017, which favors the pitcher. Boston hasn’t hit lefties all year with a 20-24 record. Eovaldi continues to struggle off his injury stint, and has posted a 6.23 ERA on the season. Minnesota is an outstanding 69-37 vs righties, and 47-24 on the road. Over the last month the Twins have posted a 19-11 record, while the Sox continue to flounder around .500 with a 16-14 mark. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-03-19 | Twins +131 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
969 Minnesota at Boston Dobnak & Porcello Randy Dobnak will get the start for the Twins tonight. He’s pitched out of the bullpen thus far. He only allowed less than half a homer a game this year in the minors, which is a concern in this ballpark. Rick Porcello has a 63 average game score his last five starts vs the Twins, but he allows too many long balls to gain trust against this team. Porcello has permitted 91 home runs the past three seasons, including 26 in 149.1 innings of work in 2019. Against this home run hitting lineup of the Twins, those numbers just won’t cut it. Minnesota is 68-37 vs righties, while the Sox are 54-39. Minnesota is 46-23 on the road while Boston is just 34-34 at home. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-02-19 | Padres +128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
907 San Diego at Arizona Quantrill & Leake Going against the line move here as we once again fade Mike Leake. The Arizona righty finally had an above average game for the Rays last time out. He went into San Francisco and produced a 63 game score. But his previous five game scores were 32, 43, 15, 38 and 35. With a league average number of 50, you can see how he has struggled. Cal Quantrill had produced game scores of 59, 57, 72, 46, 58 and 68, before struggling badly at home against the Dodgers last time out. We can forgive any pitcher who isn’t at their best against that Dodgers lineup. The Padres have the better record vs righties, 53-53 to 47-50. San Diego is also a very respectable 33-35 away, while the Diamondbacks are just 33-33 at home. We are getting great value here on a game we feel should be much closer to a coin flip contest. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-02-19 | Mets -105 v. Nationals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
901 New York at Washington Syndergaard & Ross Thor has dominated the Nationals this season with game scores of 58, 71, 66 and 49. In his last six starts overall his strikeout to walk ratio was 35 to 7. But most important he is coming off his worst start of the season. A three inning, nine earned run game against the Cubs. Joe Ross is pitching better, but he only averages about five innings of work. Which puts this terrible bullpen in the game sooner. After facing the likes of the Marlins and Orioles, the Nationals will step up in class for this series. We don’t think Ross and this bullpen can get it done. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
216 Oklahoma at Houston Love the Houston quarterback D’Eriq King who had an outstanding QBR of 167 last season. He brings back a talented offense, but we have major concerns about this Cougars defense. The team permitted 37.2 points per game a year ago, and that was with #9 NFL draft pick Ed Oliver. Oklahoma has set offensive records each of the last two years, and brings in former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts. The concern is a depleted offensive line that lost four players in the first four rounds of the draft. While the offense is likely to see some regression, we love the defensive moves in the offseason. The defensive key is the new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. He did wonders with Washington State in his two years there. Word from camp is the entire defense is buying in, and key defensive linemen have built up muscle while losing weight. That should really work well against this type of offense in Houston. While we expect this game to be extremely high scoring, we expect the Sooners to threaten 60 points. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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09-01-19 | Mariners v. Rangers -123 | 11-3 | Loss | -123 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
976 Seattle at Texas Kikuchi & Martin It’s a bullpen day for the Rangers who send out Brett Martin as the opener. Despite not having a true starter, we prefer the Texas bullpen over Yusei Kikuchi. He had an outstanding game against Toronto two weeks ago. But beyond that the lefty has been a major disappointment. He enters this game with a 6.32 ERA in his last seven starts, along with a 43 average game score. But what really is the kicker is his home run rate. On the season his has permitted 33 homers in only 139.1 innings of work. Pitching in the heat and humidity of Texas isn’t the way to avoid the long ball. Seattle is just 15-29 vs lefties, while the Rangers are 24-25 against southpaws. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-30-19 | Utah State +5 v. Wake Forest | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
147 Utah State at Wake Forest The Aggies are coming off a tremendous season that saw Matt Wells leave for a higher paying job. Gary Anderson returns to Logan after a previous stint from 2009-2012. Anderson posted a 15-5 ATS mark here in non-conference action. While many have pointed to the return of just nine starters, the team brought back just nine starters a year ago and won 11 games. The key is returning starting QB Jordan Love, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. We highly respect Wake coach Dave Clawson, but we don’t expect much out of this squad this season. The Demon Deacons are second to last in the ACC in recruiting, and this offense is sure to regress this season. Every newsletter we read favored Wake Forest here, and yet the line hasn’t risen. That’s because the smart money knows how good this Aggies team really is. Sure, we would rather have Matt Wells on the sideline, but if he was still here Utah State may have been favored. Better quarterback and the stronger defense as an underdog is something we rarely see. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 | 14-42 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
137 Florida International at Tulane The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019. PLAY OVER |
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08-28-19 | Indians -170 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
963 Cleveland at Detroit Civale & Zimmerman The Indians are 39-13 the past three seasons against the Tigers, including 13-1 this season. The Tribe is 51-38 vs righties while the Tigers are 29-72 vs the same. Cleveland has a 36-28 record on the road while Detroit is just 17-44 at home. The Indians are 17-13 the past month while Detroit is 9-21. Aaron Civale has an outstanding 1.82 ERA and an average game score of 62. He’s pitched 29.2 innings without giving up a home run. His mound counterpart is Jordan Zimmerman who comes in with a 6.48 ERA and a 44 average game score his last seven starts. The past three seasons Zim has allowed 69 home runs in 373.1 innings of work. What really puts the Tribe over the top is how it has performed against Zimmerman. In five starts the past three years Zimmerman has an average game score of 34, an ERA of 10.69 and has lasted just 16 innings. He has allowed 6 home runs and produced just 4 strikeouts. This is a terrific pitching advantage for the Indians. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-27-19 | Rangers +136 v. Angels | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
921 Texas at Los Angeles Angels Minor & Heaney Andrew Heaney has been red hot his last three starts with game scores of 84, 63 and 54. But overall he has posted an average of 56 his last seven outings. His last start was against these Rangers just a week ago and he went eight innings allowing just a single run. His strikeout to walk ratio was 14 to 0. It was an outstanding start, but with the loss fresh in the Rangers minds, we can see some major regression here. We still expect Heaney to be good, but this line is way too high. Mike Minor has an average game score of 56 his last five against the Angels. That includes a bad 28 just six days ago. His regression is expected to be a positive one. Minor’s last four road starts produced game scores of 84, 69, 42 and 56. The Angels are just 17-28 on the season vs lefties, and only 33-31 at home this season. Over the last month Los Angeles has posted a 9-21 record, and 3-7 in its last ten contests. No way should the Angels be a favorite in this price range. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-27-19 | Twins -107 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox Pineda & Giolito The past three seasons the Twins have won 32 of 49 in this series, including 8 of 13 this season. Giolito has an average game score of 52 in his last five starts against Minnesota. But his last start just six days ago was a memorable one. He pitched a complete game shutout allowing only three hits. His strikeout to walk ratio was 12 to 0 and he had a 93 game score. But that outing is fresh in the minds of the Twins who previously put up seven runs in 10 innings against him earlier in the year. Pitchers who have extreme game scores and then face the same team tend to face major regression. Michael Pineda has an average game score of 57 against the White Sox in his last five starts against them. More impressively he has posted 53, 61 and 67 numbers against them this season. The Twins are 63-37 vs righties while the Sox are just 35-51. Minnesota is a very good road team with a 40-22 mark, while Chicago has struggled at home 33-32 on the year. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -130 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
954 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Musgrove & Vargas The Phillies are 8-2 vs their cross state rivals the past two seasons. Jason Vargas has a 54 average game score in his last seven starts. Joe Musgrove is at 46 his last seven, but he did have an excellent 72 game score in his only start vs the Phillies this year. The Pirates are a weak 12-22 on the year vs left-handed starters. The Phillies are 52-43 vs righties. The visitor is 26-38 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 38-28 at home. The Pirates broke out of a hitting slump in a big way the last two games hosting the Reds. But this team had scored just 13 combined runs the previous eight games. Now on the road vs a lefty we expect the Pittsburgh bats to go silent once again. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-24-19 | Braves +101 v. Mets | 9-5 | Win | 101 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
959 Atlanta at New York Mets Fried & Wheeler The Braves have dominated this series the past two seasons winning 22 of 33 meetings. Wheeler has been hit hard his last two starts against the Braves, with game scores of 23 and 36. The Mets are also just 13-17 on the season vs lefties. Atlanta is 39-25 on the road and 58-42 vs right handed starters. Max Fried has an average game score of 52 his last five against the Mets. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
918 Detroit at Minnesota VerHagen & Berrios The Twins are 18-10 vs the Tigers the past two seasons. Drew VerHagan has gotten three starts for Detroit with game scores of 54, 31 and 24. Those starts came against the White Sox, Angels and Mariners. Now he steps up in class to face the Twins. Jose Berrios has an average game score of 55 his last five against the Tigers. Detroit is 21-44 on the road and 28-70 vs righties. Let’s take advantage of the pitching mismatch. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE -1.5 |
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08-21-19 | Nationals -143 v. Pirates | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
905 Washington at Pittsburgh Corbin & Musgrove Late comeback win last night for the Bucs, but it had to use its best relievers in the process. Patrick Corbin goes six innings consistently for the Nets, but Joe Musgrove has been very inconsistent for the host. Since April 27th Musgrove has struggled to put up back to back good starts. When pitching above a 50 game score he has come back with outputs of 21, 54, 24, 51, 21, 59, 61, 54, 40, 32, and 13. His last outing was an outstanding 71 against the Cubs, so we will very likely see regression here. Washington is a solid 53-41 vs righties this season, while the Pirates are just 11-21 vs left handed starters. The Nationals are also a quality 32-30 on the road, while the Bucs have a poor 25-35 home record. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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08-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -170 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
908 Colorado at Arizona Gonzalez & Gallen Sizable pitching mismatch in Arizona tonight. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be making his first ever start against this Arizona team, who have scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 7 games. Gonzalez in his last seven starts has failed to surpass the league average game score of 50. In fact, his average game score is just 40. Zac Gallen just pitched in Colorado for the first time and survived, which isn’t bad for a rookie starter. Now catching them a week later we expect the young righty to prosper. The Rockies are just 24-38 on the road this season. Can’t see them having much success tonight. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-19-19 | Mariners +170 v. Rays | 9-3 | Win | 170 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
911 Seattle at Tampa Bay Gonzales & McKay Seattle has won 11 of the last 16 meetings in this series. Gonzales has faced the Rays three times in the past two years with game scores of 58, 63 and 64. Over his last seven games overall he has an average game score of 53. Brandon McKay on the other hand is at a 49 average his past seven starts. Seattle has won 4 of 6 to start this road trip. The Mariners are showing plenty of value tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-18-19 | Indians -113 v. Yankees | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
967 Cleveland at New York Clevinger & Sabathia CC and his home run trouble return for the IL to face his former team. Sabathia has permitted 24 home runs in only 90 innings of work this year, just shy of 2 1/2 homers per nine innings. He simply doesn’t have the stuff of his younger years, and facing this homer happy Indians offense isn’t the cure. Clevinger is coming off a 30 game score in his last outing against Boston. Before that he has pitched six straight starts of 59 or better game scores. Nice value on the Tribe here who are 10-10 vs the Yankees the past three seasons. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-16-19 | Mets v. Royals +160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 160 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
980 New York at Kansas City Syndergaard & Montgomery Mike Montgomery disliked his role as a long reliever for the Cubs, and was very excited to get the chance to start with the Royals. It’s worked out very well thus far with 81 and 47 game scores since the trade. Normally not a big strikeout pitcher he has a 19 to 1 SO to BB ratio since the trade. The Royals really wanted him and it looks like we may be on to something as KC seems to have tweaked his delivery. The Mets are only 13-16 on the season vs left-handed starters. They are also off huge back to back series’ vs the Nationals and Braves. We see a letdown here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-16-19 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
952 Milwaukee at Washington Houser & Corbin None of the last ten games in this series has seen the losing team score more than four runs. Adrian Houser has an excellent 24 to 4 SO to BB ratio his last four outings. Patrick Corbin has averaged a 59 game score in his last seven starts. On the season he has only had one home start that graded out lower than the league average game score of 50. PLAY UNDER |
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08-15-19 | Jets v. Falcons -1.5 | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 33 m | Show | |
404 NY Jets at Atlanta Third preseason game for the Falcons who featured the running game a week ago. The coaches talked about playing the starters longer this week. With Atlanta working on its passing game and the Jets dealing with injuries in the defensive backfield, we like Atlanta to grab the victory here. New York is also having offensive line concerns, so we doubt the starting quarterback will be long for this one. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves -120 | 10-8 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
908 New York at Atlanta Stroman & Teheran The Braves were good to us last night, and this matchup brings us back tonight. Julio Teheran has been very comfortable in the new Braves ballpark. His game scores at home this year are 48, 64, 62, 66, 22, 59, 62, 63, 58, 60 and 55. The only outlier of 22 was against the Mets the last time he faced them at home. With the win yesterday Atlanta is now 21-10 the last two seasons against New York. Marcus Stroman pitched really well in hopes of being traded with game scores of 68 and 70 before being dealt. But since the move to the big city his numbers have been 38 and 44. New York is only 27-38 on the road and just put its best hitter on the injured list. Since McNeil went down the Mets have lost all three games it played. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
960 New York at Atlanta Matz & Keuchen Major home/road splits from these two. Matz on the road this season has produced game scores of 32, 57, 45, 13, 33, 39, 59, 47, 41, 13, 63 and 51. Dallas Keuchel on the other hand has been solid at home with game score numbers of 60, 68, 63 and 60. The Mets are 13-15 on the season vs lefties, while the Braves are 17-10 against southpaws. Atlanta has won 20 of 30 meetings in this series the past two seasons. New York is 27-37 on the road this year while the Braves are 33-25 at home. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-13-19 | Red Sox v. Indians -101 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
916 Boston at Cleveland Sale & Clevenger The last two seasons Cleveland has a 7-4 edge over the defending champs. Chris Sale even at his best has long struggled against this Cleveland franchise. His last four starts against the Tribe have resulted in game scores of 49, 19, 27 and 25. His last five starts have produced an ERA of 9.97 with a 28 to 10 SO to BB ratio. Keep in mind despite his down season his SO to BB ratio on the year is 206 to 35. Needless to say he just hasn’t been himself against the Indians. Mike Clevenger is averaging a 66 game score in his last seven starts. In his home starts this year his game scores have been 67, 67, 59, 74 and 84. The Indians are 22-8 over the last 30 days while the Sox are 12-17. Cleveland is 25-12 on the season vs southpaws. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
955 Baltimore at New York Ynoa & Paxton The last seven meetings in this series has resulted in game totals of 16, 13, 15, 11, 12, 15 and 17 runs. Gabriel Ynoa has a game score average of 41 in his last seven starts. The Yankees who had combined to score 82 runs in its last nine games, was shutout yesterday at Toronto. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, the starters will be kept in the game longer in order to rest the tired bullpens. Keep in mind the Orioles have allowed 90 combined runs its last ten games. PLAY OVER GAME ONE |
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08-10-19 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
963 Arizona at Los Angeles Young & Maeda Hard to believe with just how dominant the LA has been. But win last nights victory by Arizona, the Diamondbacks are now 27-24 the past three seasons against the Dodgers. Kenta Maeda started the year strong but he has struggled as of late His last three game scores have been 31, 29 and 48. His last five starts against Arizona have produced an average game score of 47. Considering league average is 50, you can tell he’s underperformed on a regular basis. Alex Young is a lefty that has never faced LA, which is something that we look for in our handicapping. In his last seven starts his average game score is 59. As good as the Dodgers are against righties 54-27, the team is less successful when facing southpaws 23-14. With a 17 game division lead the Dodgers have the ability to rotate starters, which gives us more value for the 59-57 Diamondbacks who are still fighting for a wild card spot. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-07-19 | White Sox -112 v. Tigers | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
915 Chicago at Detroit Nova & Alexander The White Sox have been much better against lefties this year with a 21-17 record. Detroit vs right handed starters just 24-64. Chicago has a better road record than the Tigers do at home. Tyler Alexander faced the White Sox five weeks ago and fared well with a 53 game score. But his last two starts overall rated 39 and 37. Ivan Nova has been on a nice run as of late with game scores of 53, 69 and 80. He faced the Tigers in mid-April with a poor 30 game score, but his previous two graded out at 75 and 48. The Tigers are a terrible 14-38 at home this year, and we know Ivan Nova has had this game circled since early in the season. The price is more than fare on the better team. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-06-19 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
956 Philadelphia at Arizona Arrieta & Leake Heading into last night the Diamondbacks were 12-4 the past three seasons in this series. Mike Leake heads to the NL after the trade from Seattle. In his last five starts against the Phillies he owns a 60 average game score. In his last seven starts overall he has an excellent 31 to 3 SO to BB ratio. Jake Arrieta has an average game score of 43 his last seven starts. And he has done so allowing just four home runs in those games. Plenty of value on the host here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-05-19 | Nationals v. Giants -125 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
910 Washington at San Francisco Feede & Samardzija Don’t look now but Jeff Samardzija is pitching better than he has in years. In his last six starts his game scores have been 70, 63, 46, 66, 71 and 68. Four of those six starts were on the road. Including hitters parks in Philadelphia and Colorado. That’s impressive for anyone, and because it’s from what many considered a journeyman, it’s not being discussed in the national media. Previous to this run he had a 2.5 to 1 SO to BB rate. In his last seven starts it’s over 4 to 1. His opponent tonight is Erick Fedde who in his last seven starts has a SO to BB rate of 18 to 17. His average game score is 42. He is coming off a 7 game score hosting Atlanta. The Bats were red hot earlier to get back into playoff contention, but are only 3-7 as of late. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-03-19 | Cardinals v. A's -147 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
932 St Louis at Oakland Hudson & Fiers The Cardinals were one of the hottest teams in the league until it started to run into good baseball teams. Teams with a winning record. Against the Cubs and Astros the Cards suddenly lost 4 of 6. Now the team travels to Oakland and takes on an A’s squad which is 20-10 over the last month. Mike Fiers is considered a journeyman by most MLB fans, but he has been extremely good the past two seasons. 21-11 combined with ERA’s of 3.54 this year and 3.56 a year ago. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 59 with a 1.94 ERA. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher which doesn’t hurt him in this ballpark. Dakota Hudson has solid numbers on the season, but he has struggled with control as of late. His last three game scores were 29, 51 and 44. His last four on the road were 51, 44, 46 and 30. Nice value on the host here. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-02-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -139 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
952 Milwaukee at Chicago Davies & Quintana That season long regression we have been waiting on from Zach Davies is starting to show. He is off 24 and 29 game scores, and his SO to BB rate is 8 to 7 his last three starts. The Cubs are now 36-18 at home this season, and just dropped 2 of 3 in Milwaukee last weekend. We look for Chicago to get its bats rolling this afternoon against an overrated starter. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -113 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at St Louis Lester & Flaherty The host has now won 10 of 11 in this series, as the Cubs finally came through as a visitor yesterday. Jack Flaherty is pitching very well as of late with game scores of 66, 56, 72 and 74. His SO to BB ratio in those games is 30 to 7. The Cubs have a distinct home/road dichotomy. 36-18 at Wrigley and just 21-32 on the road. Cheap number for the host here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-30-19 | Astros -129 v. Indians | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
911 Houston at Cleveland Verlander & Bieber Hard to believe but the Indians have not faced Justin Verlander since 2017. When in Detroit the Tribe faced him on a regular basis, but after switching divisions Cleveland has been very lucky not to have faced the future Hall of Famer. The Astros are quite the step up in class for the Indians who just faced Kansas City, Toronto, Kansas City and Detroit the last 14 games. Cleveland was 11-3 in those contests. The only winning team the Indians faced before that was the Minnesota Twins, and the Tribe lost 2 of 3 to the division leader. Before than the Tribe faced Cincinnati, Kansas City, Baltimore, Kansas City and Detroit. In those 14 games Cleveland had another 11-3 record. So against teams with losing records the Tribe has posted a recent 22-6 mark, against teams with a winning record 1-2. As opposed to the Indians, Houston has played 20 straight games against teams with a winning record, coming away with a 13-7 mark. The Tribe just isn’t ready to step up in class tonight. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-26-19 | Pirates +159 v. Mets | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
907 Pittsburgh at NY Mets Agrazal & Wheeler Dario Agrazal has been a nice surprise since joining the Pittsburgh rotation. In five starts he has an average game score of 55. Each of his last four starts have been well above the 50 league average. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so many advanced stats models will downgrade him. But he keeps the ball in the yard allowing just three home runs in 28 innings. Zack Wheeler has the more well known name, but over his last seven starts he has been just average with a 50 game score. The Pirates have the better record vs righties 37-41 as opposed to 35-41. Pittsburgh is coming off a terrible home stand with a 1-7 mark against the Cards and Phillies. It will be good for the Pittsburgh players to get away from home. This line is way too high based on everything we value in the stats. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-26-19 | Rockies v. Reds -130 | 12-2 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
902 Colorado at Cincinnati Marquez & Castillo Over his last seven starts German Marquez is averaging a 42 game score. League average is 50. He is coming off a strong 66 at the Yankees of all places, but his previous four starts were all well below league average. Luis Castillo has been extremely consistent. Over his last seven starts he has produced a 53 or higher in six of them. His last four at home have been 61, 85, 70 and 61. That was against the likes of the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Astros. Very impressive indeed. The Colorado bullpen threw 76 pitches yesterday while the Reds had the day off. Let’s back the host in this reasonably priced game. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -136 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
915 Texas at Seattle Minor & Leake Better call a plumber it’s the Minor Leake matchup! Not as funny as the Kevin Brown, Ben Sheets matchup, but after the disaster that was yesterday any levity is needed. Seattle is 8-21 on the season vs lefties and Mike Minor has produced game scores of 62 and 79 this year against the Mariners. Mike Leake is off a near perfect game last time out, but he has struggled mightily vs the Rangers. His last three Texas starts produced game scores of 20, 22 and 30. We can fade him here at a reasonable price after than outstanding outing five days ago. PLAY TEXAS |
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07-23-19 | Marlins v. White Sox +110 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
976 Miami at Chicago White Sox Smith & Covey What looks like a complete pitching mismatch on the surface, looks completely different when digging in to the numbers. Caleb Smith is a highly thought of lefty and he has a bright future. But he’s really struggled with consistency. In his last seven starts he has produced poor performances of 28 and 39 game scores. Overall during that time his average game score is 50, also league average. Dylan Covey has gotten bombed when taking to the road, but at home this season he has produced game scores of 56, 58 and 45. The White Sox are 17-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Marlins are just 25-46 vs righties. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |