Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
714 Boston at Dallas Second game of a back to back for the Celtics who won in Atlanta last night. Boston has lost outright by 8 and 12 points in the other two back to back second games this month. If fact, Boston has played six games in five different cities including tonight over the last nine days. Dallas is well rested with the last two days off after knocking off Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Mavs have been home since Tuesday and don’t play again on the road until next Wednesday. Major scheduling advantage here for the host as the Celtics continue to be overrated in the early going. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-23-18 | Jets v. Wild -118 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
058 Winnipeg at Minnesota Playoff revenge for the Wild who were blown out by the Jets 4-1 in its first round loss a year ago. The Wild are 7-2-2 at home this year and have had this game circled. With both teams with equal rest off the holiday we see this line being very cheap on the host. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-23-18 | Virginia -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
139 Virginia at Virginia Tech Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 34 m | Show | |
111 Colorado State at Air Force This is truly a rivalry game as neither team has enough wins to go bowling this year. The Rams defense was horrendous in the early part of the schedule, but since getting into conference play has been better. Last year the Rams were a 10 point favorite in this contest, that’s a 24 1/2 point change in line from two teams that aren’t good enough to go bowling. This is also a big drop in opponent strength after facing Utah State and Nevada the past two weeks. Air Force just doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this size. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies +3 v. Spurs | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
519 Memphis at San Antonio The Grizzlies have become a great defensive team, and in a league that has forgotten about that part of the game, playing Memphis is becoming a chore. Much like in college football, where you can ride a team that plays defense in an offensive conference. Teams are so used to playing a certain pace that if that pace changes the team is lost. And the best part is that those type of teams don’t get the national attention. Which leads us to a better line and more value. Let’s back that defensive team tonight as Memphis cashes easily. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-21-18 | Stars +165 v. Penguins | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
1 Dallas at Pittsburgh Sure the Stars could be a bit tired tonight playing its third game in four nights. That said, this line has gotten out of hand. The opener was -150 and now sits at least 30 cents higher based on the news that Sidney Crosby will be back tonight. That gives us terrific value on the underdog here who is playing the much better hockey at the moment. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-19-18 | Kings +135 v. Blues | 2-0 | Win | 135 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
13 Los Angeles at St Louis With Peter Budaj still under the weather the Kings look to be starting Cal Petersen in net. He’s been outstanding in his first two NHL starts and we are more than willing to ride the hot hand in an underdog role. St Louis returns home after splitting in Vegas and San Jose. The Blues haven’t had great goaltending which makes it hard to trust this team in this setting. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -120 | 153 h 33 m | Show |
457 Minnesota at Chicago Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer. After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
459 Philadelphia at New Orleans Now that Carson Wentz is getting healthier by the week, we look for this Eagles offense to get on a roll. The past five games Philadelphia has produced 55, 50, 52, 50 and 60% offensive success rates. The Eagles defense has suffered injuries especially in the defensive backfield, so this game should be a shootout. New Orleans has scored at least 40 points in all but one game this season. The last three games the offense has produced 69, 54 and 55% offensive play success rates. Also in that same time frame the Saints have permitted 23 combined explosive plays. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
470 Oakland at Arizona Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts OVER 50 | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show | |
461 Tennessee at Indianapolis Now that Marcus Mariota is finally healthy this Titans offense is starting to find success. Offensive success rates of 51, 52 and 54% the past three games. In that time period the Titans have produced 28 total explosive plays. Indy has consistently been one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Over the past four games the Colts have averaged 35.5 points per game. Other than the game where it allowed just 5 points to the lowly Bills, this defense has permitted 26, 28, 42, 38 and 37 points. This one should fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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11-17-18 | UAB +15.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
385 UAB at Texas A&M Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. PLAY UAB |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
327 Virginia at Georgia Tech Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the option offense, facing it the last two seasons against these Yellow Jackets, and for many years against Air Force when he was at BYU. This defense has held the opposition to only 38.3% successful plays this season. Only twice has a team put up more than 24 points against this defense. Georgia Tech has won three straight and comes into this game on a nice roll. But a closer look at the opposition shows all three opponents it beat have been disappointing this season. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami Florida have all failed to meet preseason expectations. We back the much better defense to easily cover this number. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Seattle Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
312 Tulane at Houston The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois. We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-13-18 | Penguins -115 v. Devils | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
3 Pittsburgh at New Jersey First game back at home for the Devils after a disappointing seven game road trip. The team will be without Nico Hischier for the first time in his playing career. Pittsburgh is going with red hot Casey DeSmith in goal with his 1.89 goals against average this season. Teams returning home are a go against situation for us, with too many things to take care of in a limited time. Edge to the road favorite here. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-12-18 | Pelicans v. Raptors -9 | 126-110 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
706 New Orleans at Toronto The Pelicans stand at 1-5 straight up on the road this year. New Orleans has been swept by the Raptors each of the last three seasons, only winning twice in 14 meetings overall. Toronto rested the starting five for the entire fourth quarter against the Knicks last time out. Let’s back the best team in the east to keep this early start to the season red hot. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
258 Washington at Tampa Bay This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-10-18 | Lakers v. Kings +6 | 101-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
720 Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Wrong team favored in our estimation. The Lakers are a poor 3 point shooting team that doesn’t play defense. We haven’t liked the personnel on this team from the get go. Too many personalities to work well with LeBron. The Kings are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing teams with a losing record. After years of futility Sacramento is building a pretty good basketball team. This club remains under the radar. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
139 Miami Florida at Georgia Tech The Hurricanes have lost three straight games heading into this contest, all as point spread favorites. So we are buying this Miami team at a season low, and this is the first time all season Miami has been installed as an underdog. Georgia Tech has been held below its season average each of the past five years against Miami. This is a team that dominates teams that don’t see the option on a regular basis. But Miami has the athletes to slow down this running game. Georgia Tech is on a high right now off back to back double digit victories. Buy low, sell high. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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11-10-18 | Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
151 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys have dropped 3 of 4 games as of late, losing as a favorite three times. But a win over Oklahoma would make the season for this team. Oklahoma State has dropped this in-state rivalry by double digits each of the past three seasons. But this line is simply too high. For Oklahoma the season comes down to the trip to West Virginia on the 23rd. There is no lookahead with Kansas on deck. That said, the Sooners haven’t played too many quality offenses until last week at Texas Tech. Despite the win Oklahoma permitted 46 points. We expect the Sooners to easily stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-10-18 | Kentucky -5 v. Tennessee | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
125 Kentucky at Tennessee Despite the loss last week the Wildcats still have a lot to play for. This should be its toughest test the remainder of the season with Middle Tennessee and Louisville to finish off the year. The Wildcats have played very well on the road with wins over Florida, Missouri and went to overtime at Texas A&M. Tennessee peaked a month ago with a 30-24 win at Auburn. But when looking at successful offensive plays Tennessee was at 32% while Auburn came in at 45%. The Volunteers have only outplayed one team all season in successful play percentage, and that was the pathetic UTEP Miners. Oh yeah, the Volunteers failed to cover that game by 9 1/2 points. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Penn State | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
179 Wisconsin at Penn State Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
111 Louisville at Syracuse Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-08-18 | Coyotes +118 v. Flyers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
55 Arizona at Philadelphia Coyotes looking for a bit of revenge after losing at home to these Flyers Monday. This is the first Flyers home games since October 27th following road wins against Anaheim, Los Angeles and the victory in Arizona. The only loss was an overtime game in San Jose. Now back home fat and sassy for a five game homestead, we expect Philadelphia to come into this game overconfident. Arizona wants this game more and the price is right. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 38 m | Show | |
106 Toledo at Northern Illinois The Rockets offense has shown itself the past two weeks with success rates of 54.1% against Ball State and 53.0% vs Western Michigan. But the previous week this offense was held to 24.0% against a good defense in Buffalo, and this Huskies stop unit resembles the Buffalo stop unit much better than the last two opponents. Northern Illinois was our pick for the conference title preseason, and now that conference action is in full swing we like the Huskies chances. This is a team that is undefeated in MAC play with the only losses coming at Iowa and Florida State, and hosting Utah. We get the much better stop unit at home laying a small number. Let the general public back the inconsistent high scoring team, we like MAC defense. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-05-18 | Raptors -2 v. Jazz | Top | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
513 Toronto at Utah While the Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back here, Utah is playing its third in four days and its fourth in six. We already know the Jazz best scorer Donovan Mitchell will be out, and it’s likely Leonard will be out for the Raptors. But as of now he hasn’t been ruled out completely. Toronto is playing terrific ball right now while the host is really struggling. With or without Leonard we will back the Raptors here, as Utah is really having defensive problems this season. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-04-18 | Packers +5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense. New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total. PLAY OVER |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate. The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets -5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
514 Utah at Denver Very tough scheduling spot for the Jazz here who are playing it’s third game in four days and firth in eight. Coming in off back to back ten point or less losses, Utah may be a step or two slow tonight in the Denver altitude. After facing two of the worst teams in the NBA with Chicago and Cleveland, the Nuggets take on two of the best this week in Utah and Boston. Love the depth on this Denver team and it’s a big contributor to this contest. PLAY DENVER |
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11-03-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky +10 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
330 Georgia at Kentucky There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best. Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
400 Kansas State at TCU It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here. PLAY TCU |
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11-03-18 | Iowa State -15 v. Kansas | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
387 Iowa State at Kansas Willing to back one of the best young coaches in college football against the weakest team in the conference. The Cyclones have won three straight games and looked really good off its bye week with a 58-40 victory over Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has struggled a bit against excellent passing offenses but have dominated against pedestrian offensive squads. Allowing 13 to Iowa, 13 to Akron, 17 to TCU. The Cyclones also surprisingly held a very good West Virginia offense to just 14 points. Iowa State shut out the Jayhawks 45-0 a year ago. Kansas has played a very weak schedule thus far. The best three teams it played was Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 68 points. On the season this team is only producing 34.1% successful offensive plays. Iowa State is allowing just 38.2% successful offensive plays, and that is against a seven point tougher schedule than the Jayhawks. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-02-18 | Rockets v. Nets +4.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
704 Houston at Brooklyn You get two totally different takes on this game looking at the stats and looking at the name on the uniforms. Houston has established themselves as an elite team based on last year, while the Nets are more of an afterthought. But this isn’t the same teams as a year ago as the Rockets lost two major defensive staples in the offseason. And the league MVP Harden is out once again. This team is really having trouble getting anything done this season, both offensively and defensively. Brooklyn is better in all the metrics in this early season. And with both teams shooting a lot of shots from downtown, the projections are more varied. We will fade the big name team here until it learns to play with this new lineup. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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11-01-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -4 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
512 New Orleans at Portland Playoff revenge for the Blazers who were swept in the first round by the Pelicans. Damian Lillard pointed out that they have this game circled. New Orleans is playing its fifth game in seven days, after a run and gun effort at Golden State yesterday. Great spot for the host looking to settle a score. PLAY PORTLAND |
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11-01-18 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Akron | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
311 Northern Illinois at Akron Huskies have played a four point tougher schedule and still post better advantaged numbers than the Zips. Northern is also fresher playing its second game after a bye while Akron plays its fifth. Northern has a clear advantage defensively allowing just 34.1% success rate on the season. The Huskies are also better in the trenches when looking at the sack rate. Akron does have a pretty good defense allowing just 37.0% successful plays, but that offense is putrid at a 32.1% success rate. The Zips have really struggled to put points on the board against much worse stop units, can’t count on them here against the best defense it has played. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-30-18 | Flames v. Sabres -117 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
8 Calgary at Buffalo Tough spot for the Flames after playing at highly improved Toronto last night. We have major concerns about Calgary when not on the 5 on 5. This is a team that isn't generating power play goals, and is struggling to defend on the penalty kill. Buffalo is much improved this season and after last year you know this club is enjoying taking the ice on a daily basis. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
261 Seattle at Detroit The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late. Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite. PLAY SEATTLE |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here. Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-27-18 | Capitals v. Flames -110 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
58 Washington at Calgary Mike Smith has had a hard time in goal for the Flames, but this line gives the host a solid advantage. Calgary is healthy while the Capitals are missing Tom Wilson to suspension and Travis Boyd is out. Nice number for the healthy host to set things right. PLAY CALGARY |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
135 Illinois at Maryland The last two weeks the Illini was a 10 1/2 point home underdog to Purdue, and a 24 point underdog at Wisconsin. If you switch the home field ratings for the Purdue game Illinois would have been at most 15 1/2. Now we find a Maryland team that is far worse laying an inflated number. By our stats Illinois has played a two point tougher schedule than the Terrapins, yet the successful play data only shows Maryland to be about eight points better on a neutral field. This is just too high of a line to not get involved. Maryland gave Rutgers just five points more on this field just two weeks ago. Say what you will about Lovie Smith’s team, it’s not comparable to Rutgers. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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10-27-18 | Cincinnati -8.5 v. SMU | 26-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
191 Cincinnati at SMU The Bearcats had its undefeated season end a week ago with an overtime loss to Temple. We were on the Owls in that game and felt we were lucky to get that victory. Even in a loss the Bearcats held a very good Temple team to only 26% successful offensive plays. In fact, on the season Cincinnati is allowing just 30.7% of offensive plays to be successful. While not playing a who’s who of explosive offenses, I don’t care who you played those defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the Bearcats take on another weak offensive team in SMU. The Mustangs have played a 13 point tougher schedule, but the offense still remains subpar. A 28.4% successful play rate on offense just doesn’t inspire much confidence no matter the opposition. We have no problem laying a small number on the road with the much superior stop unit of the Bearcats. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas +1.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 60 m | Show | |
194 Vanderbilt at Arkansas Third road game is four weeks for the Commodores who have a bye week on deck. This team just played the three physical defenses of Kentucky, Florida and Georgia. Now it’s installed as a road favorite at Arkansas. Keep in mind Vandy is 2-16 straight up on the SEC road. Arkansas has played a one point tougher schedule and the success rates are exactly the same. Arkansas has struggled against very good offenses like Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. That hasn’t been the case when stepping down in class. The wrong team is favored here as our number shows Arkansas by a field goal. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
906 Boston at Los Angeles Change of scenery does wonders for the Dodgers here. Boston has to move around its excellent defense in order to get a subpar defensive player in JD Martinez into the field. No DH is a major problem for the Sox tonight defensively, especially if the move is in that excellent defensive outfield. Big starting pitcher edge for LA here as we have Buehler rated much higher than Porcello. The Dodgers have a 19% bullpen advantage and a 17% hitting edge as Boston really isn’t much better than league average on the road vs righties. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -8 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points. Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 52 m | Show |
106 Toledo at Western Michigan This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan. The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
902 Los Angeles at Boston Both teams are going with their aces in game one, but to be honest Kershaw hasn’t been his typical self this season. Still even at less than his normal skill level, he’s still an elite starter. Both bullpens are excellent, although the Dodgers have a 14% edge in that department. While both teams hit lefties well, the weather is expected to be a bit of a concern tonight. Rather than pick a side here, we will look for this game to stay under the posted total. Pitching has a sizable edge here and the total is being propped up by the two good hitting clubs. PLAY UNDER |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
513 Washington at Portland Winless Wizards go to Portland to take on the undefeated Blazers. This is the first game of a five game road trip for Washington. In will look to get out of town after one and four point losses to the Heat and Raptors. While the eastern conference is wide open this year, the Wizards have been an afterthought. But we like this team, especially in the backcourt, and this is really an all in game with Golden State on deck. Portland is ending a winning three game homestead tonight, so the urgency isn’t there with the Blazers, with a four game road trip on deck. Nice spot for the winless visitor and the line has value. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-22-18 | Capitals -148 v. Canucks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
7 Washington at Vancouver Despite the losing record of the Capitals both teams are a net +0.1 goals better than the opposition on the season. Vancouver will be without Elias Pettersson a key player who suffered a severe concussion. His loss is a big concern for the Canucks. Washington continues to dominate on the power play and that likely will provide the visitor with a major edge tonight. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
470 New Orleans at Baltimore The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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10-20-18 | USC +7 v. Utah | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
405 USC at Utah Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad. Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY USC |
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10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
389 NC State at Clemson Yes this is a big step up in class for the Wolfpack, but the results the last two years show us NC State can make this a game. Back to back seven point losses including one in overtime have the Wolfpack entering this contest with great confidence. This club is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS vs FBS competition, and has an NFL ready quarterback. Clemson has what many feel is the best defensive line in college football. But State has only been sacked once all season. It has an 11-1 sack advantage while Clemson’s is 17-8. Two great lines do battle and NC State holds their own in the trenches. Both defenses are outstanding and we expect this to be a lower scoring contest. With points at a premium this line is way too high. PLAY NC STATE |
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10-20-18 | Virginia +7 v. Duke | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
321 Virginia at Duke Only road game in a six week span for the Cavaliers. Virginia has won the past three meetings in this series, with the spreads being 3 1/2 or less. Which is one of the reasons we are looking to take the higher number here with the visitor. The victory over Miami Florida last week wasn’t a fluke. Virginia was even in turnovers in that game, had the higher early down success rate, and the better offensive play success rate. Duke is a quality team but doesn’t deserve to be this high a favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Two of its wins this year came against option based teams. In the other two FBS wins the team took advantage of a combined +4 turnover margin. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-20-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
314 Cincinnati at Temple Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-20-18 | Buffalo -1 v. Toledo | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
339 Buffalo at Toledo We missed the best number on this one, but we still have plenty of value to fade what could be the most disappointing team in college football. Buffalo has a huge advantage at the point of attack. The Bulls have a 16-4 sack advantage, while Toledo is down 17-4. You likely won’t see a bigger discrepancy in any game this year. While the offenses are similarly productive, the Bulls only allow a 36.6% success rate on defense. The Bulls are 3-0 straight up on the road including a 36-29 win at Temple. These two programs are heading in opposite directions. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -10 v. UNLV | 41-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 35 m | Show | |
309 Air Force at UNLV Now that this line has dropped it’s time to step in with the Falcons. In last years meeting Air Force wore down the Rebels as the game progressed, outscoring UNLV 27-3 in the second half. We expect more of the same here. While the Flyboys offense isn’t quite as good as a season ago, we like what this defense has been doing. The last two games Air Force has held the opposition to 20 and 32% successful offensive plays. Overall 28 combined points allowed against Navy and San Diego State. The Rebels have now played two games without its starting quarterback. The Teams been outscored in that time 109-42. During that period the defense permitted 55 and 57% successful offensive plays. Just can’t trust this home club who hasn’t posted a winning season record at Sam Boys Stadium since 2013. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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10-18-18 | Avalanche +130 v. Devils | 5-3 | Win | 130 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
005 Colorado at New Jersey While New Jersey comes into this game red hot, the betting markets are overrating this hockey squad in this number. The Devils have been exceeding talent in defending the power play and its best defender was really banged up in the last game. Will Butcher was expected to miss this game, but word is he will try to give it a go. Still when your best defender isn’t 100% its tough to be labeled a favorite of this magnitude. PLAY COLORADO |
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10-17-18 | Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
911 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Miley & Kershaw Back to back games after a late night in Los Angeles from these teams yesterday. While the Dodgers clearly have the starting pitching edge, we like the situation for the Brewers. Nobody other than the two starters pitching in relief threw more than 20 pitches yesterday. So that means the excellent Brewers bullpen will all be available on Wednesday. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, the closer Kenley Jansen had to throw two innings and 34 pitches last night. The Dodgers hitters have really struggled to score in this series, and too many of the hitters have been all or nothing. That may work in Colorado in the summer, but in Los Angeles in the fall you have to be able to put the ball in play. Let’s take the 1 1/2 runs in this suspected low scoring affair. PLAY MILWAUKEE RUN LINE |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
908 Boston at Houston Eovaldi & Keuchel Both starters rate 7% and 4% better than league average, and we all know about the strength in the bullpens. In fact, Houston’s bullpen rates 26% better than league average. In a ballpark that is very pitcher friendly, and with the staffs having a day off, we prefer the under in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
276 Kansas City at New England The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season. I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Astros -128 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
951 Houston at Boston Cole & Price Sizable edges for the road team here as we grade Cole 13% higher than Price. The Houston bullpen is also superior by 22% while the offenses are even. The Astros are a very confident team and the deepest squad in the league. With Houston being stellar on the road this season we will back the Astros here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 3 m | Show |
261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series. While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers. This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-13-18 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
124 Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina Terrible spot for the Warhawks who are playing its third straight road game, and fifth in the last six weeks. The last two games have been losses by 49 and 32 points, as ULM continues to have major defensive problems. On the season this team is allowing 56.6% of opponent offensive plays to be successful. Coastal Carolina is 2-2 SU & ATS on the season against FBS opposition. This is only the second FBS home game for the Chanticleers who beat UAB 47-24 earlier. Coastal is also off a bye week, so this team should be much fresher than its opposition. Let’s lay the short number here with the Chanticleers. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-13-18 | Dodgers -128 v. Brewers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
905 LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Ryu & Miley As good as Miley has been for the Brewers this year, it’s still a small sample size compared to his history. Which is why we grade Ryu 14% higher than the Brewers lefty. The Milwaukee bullpen is better but its best piece Hader threw 40 pitches yesterday, and he’s likely out tonight. With the offense being somewhat of a wash, we look for the Dodgers to even up this series today. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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10-13-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. South Carolina | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 48 m | Show | |
121 Texas A&M at South Carolina This Aggies team is much better than its 3-2 SU record in FBS games suggest. Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS despite losing the turnover battle by a combined six through five games. While this team is known for its offense the defense is allowing just 35.9% of plays to be successful. More impressive when you consider it has faced Clemson and Alabama, the two best teams in the country. South Carolina was expected to be very good this year, and are doing pretty well themselves. But our numbers show that defensively this team is virtually average, as opposed to the stout defense that many expected. Coming off a hard fought back and forth game against Missouri, will the Gamecocks have the defense to take down the Aggies? We think not. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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10-13-18 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses. Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Memphis | 31-30 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
183 Central Florida at Memphis We really expected the Knights to take a step back this season after losing Scott Frost to Nebraska. But that hasn’t been the case with UCF going 4-0 SU & ATS vs FBS opposition. The Knights have permitted just two sacks all season, and have allowed just 36.7% successful offensive plays. The Knights are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the past 2+ seasons. This is a huge revenge game for the Tigers who lost to the Knights 62-55 in double overtime last season. But if you’ve watched Memphis this year it’s clear this isn’t the same quality team. The Tigers have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the country. Navy, Georgia State, South Alabama, Tulane and Connecticut. None of those teams are any good, including the Midshipmen who are way down from previous editions. The revenge situation will bring money to the Tigers, but UCF is clearly the much better team. Despite the extremely weak schedule Memphis has allowed 11 sacks which producing just 9. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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10-13-18 | Tennessee +15 v. Auburn | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
185 Tennessee at Auburn The Volunteers have played three of the best teams in the country, West Virginia, Florida and Georgia. They enter this game with a -9 turnover margin in FBS contests. But this team is off a bye and now catch over two touchdowns against one of the worst offenses in the power five conferences. Defensively the Tigers are really good, but this offense has done nothing all season. How about a 36.4% successful offensive play percentage. This from a team that has only played one true road game all season. Only once all season in FBS competition this team has scored more than 24 points. This line is way too high in what is expected to be a low scoring game. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 32 m | Show | |
111 Arizona at Utah This Arizona offense isn’t nearly as explosive as a year ago. Mainly because QB Khalil Tate isn’t able to run like in the past. But with the offense being more conservative the defense has improved by leaps and bounds. Utah is coming off back to back conference road games before facing the Wildcats here on a short week. Next week the Utes host traditional league power USC. In looking at successful offensive plays Utah has been below FBS average in all but one game this season, last week at Stanford. So right now the Utes enter this game priced higher than at any time this season. On a short week after its biggest victory of the season. Utah is only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, tough to lay this number without offensive explosion ability. ARIZONA |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech +7 v. TCU | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show | |
105 Texas Tech at TCU Both teams are coming into this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position. As injuries have affected both starters. But the backups have seen significant time, so we are not worried about who is or isn’t behind center. TCU has had a major problem taking care of the football this season. In four FBS games the Horned Frogs have a -10 turnover margin. This is also a team that has struggled in early down success rate, producing just 59.5% on first downs on first or second down. Texas Tech on the other hand has been much more efficient at 72.8% early down success rate. The Red Raiders have gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma State 41-17 as a 14 1/2 point underdog, the only true road game TT has played this season. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Kliff Kingsbury the past 3+ seasons. We have this game lined more in the field goal range, which gives us plenty of value on the road underdog. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
922 Boston at New York Porcello & Sabathia Cheap number on the Yankees here with its back to the wall after being blown out yesterday. While Boston has a 6% starting pitcher edge, the Yankees are far superior in the bullpen and offensively. New York hits 25% better at home vs right-handed starters than league average. We lay the short number tonight on the Yankees to even the series. PLAY NEW YORK |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 138 h 59 m | Show |
467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays. The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -5.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
466 Miami at Cincinnati The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range. Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-06-18 | Nebraska +19 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show |
409 Nebraska at Wyoming Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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10-06-18 | UAB +10 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
379 UAB at Louisiana Tech The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage. Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire. PLAY UAB |
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10-06-18 | Indians v. Astros -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
952 Cleveland at Houston Carrasco & Cole Edges abound for the host here with an 11% starter edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 10% hitting edge. The Indians feasted on a bad division this season, while the Astros played in a competitive division and still put up a better record. The Astros are the best team in the postseason and this is a cheap number to get them at home. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-06-18 | South Alabama +14 v. Georgia Southern | 13-48 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
313 South Alabama at Georgia Southern Third straight road game for the Jaguars. But this is a major drop down in talent after trips to Oklahoma State, Memphis and Appalachian State. It’s also shutout revenge time for South Alabama who lost at Georgia Southern 52-0 last year in the final game of the regular season. While the Jaguars offense has struggled, the defense has played very well considering the strength of the opposition. Allowing 43.8% of opposing plays to be successful, which is right about league average. In fact, despite the 1-4 record the Jaguars are holding their own in line play as they own 11 sacks while allowing just 10. Georgia Southern has cashed all three FBS games this season, but much of that has to do with a +4 turnover advantage. On the season this team is averaging just 38.9% successful offensive plays. In the trenches it’s a 7 to 7 sack rate. With a 52-0 victory against this club fresh in their minds, and a Thursday night showdown on deck vs Texas State, we can see the Eagles looking past the opposition here. Too many points considering the advanced stats and the situation. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 118 h 46 m | Show |
398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role. PLAY TEXAS |
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10-06-18 | Missouri +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 42 m | Show |
335 Missouri at South Carolina Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad. PLAY MISSOURI |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +11 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
373 Northwestern at Michigan State This is too many points to lay in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Last years contest went to triple overtime before the Wildcats prevailed 39-31. Pat Fitzgerald has been simply amazing in Evanston when installed as a road underdog. With the outright win at Purdue earlier the Wildcats are 24-9 ATS catching points on the road the last 10+ seasons. Michigan State was highly thought of coming into the season, but we never really bought into it. And it’s proven out on the field as Michigan State simply hasn’t dominated against weaker opposition. Despite playing Utah State, Arizona State, Indiana and Central Michigan, the Spartans are only up 117-88. That’s as a combined 62 1/2 combined point favorite. The only somewhat dominant performance was last week against a lower division MAC team, and the Spartans failed to cover by 17 points. With a major trip to Penn State on deck we can’t see the Spartans running away with this one. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -150 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
908 Cleveland at Houston Putting this one up late so sorry for the lack of analysis. Purely a value play on the Astros. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-03-18 | Bruins +115 v. Capitals | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
003 Boston at Washington The NHL season gets underway on Wednesday and we get to back one of our favorite situations. Fading the champions in the first home game of the season. Boston was the better team last year by our metrics, and the off season hasn’t been kind to the Capitals. With all the pomp and circumstance in the nations capital on Wednesday, we get the better team at a nice underdog price. PLAY BOSTON BRUINS |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 50 m | Show | |
261 NY Jets at Jacksonville Extra time to prepare for the Jets who let one slip away Thursday against the Browns. While New York lost that game 21-17 keep in mind it had a -3 turnover disadvantage. So the Jets failed to cover by a single point while turning the ball over three times more than the Browns. New York has outscored the opposition 77-58 despite being -1 in turnover differential and -5 in sacks differential. When looking at successful play percent New York is averaging 47.3% while allowing just 39.7%. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team in this price range. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the season with wins over the Giants and Patriots. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league. The defense has been stout as always but the offense has been a disappointment. The Jets have won 20 games combined the last three seasons, but are a perfect 2-0 against the Jags. Winning last year as a 3 1/2 point underdog in overtime, and in 2015 28-23. Jacksonville has played three disappointing teams this season, the Jets have a better future than any of them. PLAY NY JETS |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 114 h 17 m | Show | |
264 Tampa Bay at Chicago The Bucs continue to put points on the board, but is this team a bit overrated because of that offensive success? Keep in mind Tampa Bay is traveling on a short week after the supposed statement game Monday night against the Steelers. The defense has allowed 91 points to three teams that have not met preseason expectations. The Bucs have permitted an average of 54.3% successful plays, so what the offense produces the defense more than surrenders. The Bears are 2-1 on the season with the lone loss being the opening week fold job against the Packers. The Chicago defense has been nothing but outstanding thus far. Allowing just 18.3 points per game and holding the opposition to just 39% successful plays. Mitch Trubisky is catching a lot of flak, but the teams offense isn’t bad at all. Much better defense gets the cover here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-30-18 | Bengals +5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 88 h 9 m | Show | |
255 Cincinnati at Atlanta Really like the way these Bengals have started the season. Cincinnati has won the early down success rate in all three games, 79-54%, 79-68% and 84-74% last week. When looking at play success rate this team has produced 52.7% offensively, while allowing 50.3%. The Falcons are just 12-20 ATS as a home favorite going back to the 2012 season. This home field edge isn’t nearly as big as you were led to believe. Despite playing 2 of 3 games at home this year, the Falcons are permitting 50.7% of opponent plays to be successful, while producing just 47.7%. This is the third straight home game for the Falcons, which usually results in a higher scoring game. That said we prefer the visitor in this matchup better. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 32 m | Show | |
164 Arkansas State at Georgia Southern The Red Wolves are 2-1 in FBS action this year with the only loss coming at Alabama. Pretty impressive. Or is it? The 29-20 win at Tulsa showed a 44.9-41.5% successful play advantage for the Golden Hurricane. The reason Ark State won was a +2 turnover margin. Even last week in a non-covering 27-20 win over UNLV the Red Wolves needed a +3 turnover margin. Since turnovers are worth roughly 5 points, both of those victories could have and probably should have been loses. This is also the third road game in four weeks for this squad. Georgia Southern had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, coming after a 31 point loss at Clemson. But the Golden Eagles have cashed both games against FBS competition this year, by a combined 20 points. After a disappointing 2-10 season under first year coach Chad Lunsford, this team is primed to get back to its past success. The Eagles had won 5 or more games in each of the previous nine seasons. With an extra week to prepare and having double revenge this game has been circled in Statesboro. GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina +14 v. Troy | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
197 Coastal Carolina at Troy The Chanticleers have been pretty impressive in the early going with a 2-1 FBS mark. The only loss was at South Carolina, which is a very good team this year. Even in that defeat Coastal Carolina managed a strong 90% early down success rate against that stout defense. Troy’s is a bit overrated right now after back to back road wins at Nebraska and Louisiana Monroe. Despite a 2-1 SU & ATS mark the Trojans have permitted a 48.1% success rate while only producing a 39.9% mark themselves. The team won the turnover margin in both victories. With a short week on deck at it hosts Georgia State on Thursday, we see this as a great spot to fade the Trojans. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-29-18 | Kent State +7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 23 m | Show |
117 Kent State at Ball State Yes it’s the third straight road game for Kent State, but it’s also the first conference game of the season. The Golden Flashes have been at its best as a road dog with a 13-8 spread mark. Which is pretty impressive considering Kent has a 25-51 straight up record in that time frame. Kent State is already 2-0 ATS when losing the turnover battle, which tells us this team is vastly underrated. Ball State remains winless against FBS competition. A good amount of this line is based on the Cardinals good showing at Notre Dame. But keep in mind that was a major flat spot for the Irish after knocking off Michigan with an SEC opponent on deck. Getting this line in this price range is a bargain. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
211 Arkansas at Texas A&M We’ve been anti Arkansas and pro Texas A&M all season, and yet we can’t get anywhere near this high a number for this contest. Sports betting is a pendulum where there is a right number for every game. And this one tells us it’s time to back the ugly dog. There was no excuse to lose to a bad Colorado State team, but the Razorbacks had the higher early down success rate in that game 83-71%, as well as the better successful play rate 46.7-41.1%. While losing to North Texas and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed about as those two teams have been bet on squads. A combined -7 turnover margin kept the Razorbacks from cashing in those contests. These teams have met in each of the last nine seasons with the highest spread being 14 points. A&M enters this contest in a tough scheduling spot. Off Alabama and with Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn to come. All very good teams that A&M will have problems with. This is the only game Texas A&M will play all season on artificial turf, as it’s a neutral site game in Arlington. Just too many points to lay here for the Aggies. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-29-18 | Temple +13 v. Boston College | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show | |
127 Temple at Boston College Extra time to prepare for the Owls after beating Tulsa last Thursday. Temple is a nice 13-6 ATS as a road underdog the past 5+ seasons. In three FBS games this team owns a +11 sack ratio, allowing only two sacks during those games. This defense has been outstanding holding the opposition to just 33.1% successful offensive plays. Boston College came into the season with a lot of hype, and started the year 3-0. But last week at Purdue was a wake up call, especially for this offense that only produced 29.3% successful plays. Wins over Massachusetts, Holy Cross and Wake Forest don’t look as impressive now as it did at the time. In a projected to be low scoring game, catching double digits is even more of a bargain. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 47 m | Show |
107 UCLA at Colorado Both teams enter this Friday contest off byes last week. UCLA still has not tasted victory with losses to Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State. There is a very real possibility that all three of those teams will be bowling this December. While the UCLA offense is a concern the defense has impressed us. Looking beyond the final scores we see that the Bruins are holding the opposition to just 60% on early down success rate. Just 6 out of ten first downs have been attained on first and second down. That indicates that the defense is much better than what the scoreboard has shown. Despite playing three good football teams, the opposition has only been successful on 45.2% of offensive plays. While that’s higher than league average, it’s much more in line with the early down success rate than the scoreboard. As opposed to the Bruins, Colorado has had an easy schedule of FBS competition. Playing just Colorado State and Nebraska, two teams really struggling out of the gate. Colorado is +2 in turnover advantage, and have lost the sack battle 7 to 5. This is a team that has looked good against inferior competition. The last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 10, 4 and 3 points in double overtime. We look for this to be another tight contest. PLAY UCLA |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
102 Minnesota at LA Rams Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason. The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
911 Los Angeles at Arizona Stripling & Greinke Just an amazing season for Ross Stripling who came out of nowhere this year when the Dodgers really needed him. LA has limited his innings as of late but the bullpen is solid. We rate the righty 17% better than Greinke in this contest. The Dodgers also have a 3% bullpen edge and a 12% offensive advantage. Greinke has pitched better at home this year, but the major inning numbers have taken a toll on him the past month. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
484 Chicago at Arizona The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
473 Oakland at Miami Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008. PLAY OAKLAND |