Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-21 | Panthers +135 v. Lightning | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
9 Florida at Tampa Bay In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Lightning 7th. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.32 and Tampa +0.23. So nice regression is in store for the Panthers. On the Power Play Florida ranks 11th and Tampa Bay 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +6.98 and the Lightning +6.13. So major positive regression is in store for Florida. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida comes in ranked 16th and Tampa Bay 9th. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.12 and the Lightning -4.85. A substantial advantage for the host. With these two battling for the second time in three days, we will look for Florida to even the series. The Panthers deserved better than an overtime loss on Wednesday. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-17-21 | Blue Jays v. Royals +107 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
922 Toronto at Kansas City Listed Matz & Minor Steven Matz has looked good in his first two American League starts, but that’s not how it normally works out for starters switching from the NL to the AL. Mike Minor has absolutely owned the Blue Jays in his career. In five career starts he has an average 63 game score with a 2.12 ERA. He has a 6.6 to 1 SO to BB ratio. Big fans of this Kansas City organization and Toronto is off back to back wins over the NY Yankees. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-16-21 | Pirates +141 v. Brewers | 6-1 | Win | 141 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Listed Brubaker & Houser The Pirates along with the Rangers and Rockies are expected to be the worst teams in baseball this season. But when the price is right any team can be a betting value. And that’s what we have here with Pittsburgh. JT Brubaker is someone we want to put our money on. Over his last five starts his game scores have been 59, 54, 34, 66 and 57. The lone poor start was in Cleveland where they use the DH. He has been very good against National League teams. He also has a solid 54 game score in two starts against the Brewers. Adrian Houser on the other hand has a 46 average game score against the Pirates, and a 42 average game score his last seven overall starts. From a hitting perspective Milwaukee ranks 28th in wRC+ and the Pirates are 10th. In hard hot rate Milwaukee ranks 27th and Pittsburgh 22nd. Nice price here with the underdog Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-16-21 | Indians -105 v. Reds | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
929 Cleveland at Cincinnati Listed Allen & Hoffman Logan Allen was once a highly touted prospect in the San Diego organization. He came over to Cleveland by trade in 2019. From articles we’ve read he has rededicated himself to being the best pitcher possible to honor his wheelchair bound brother. The Indians organization said he lost 35 pounds and is much more focused this season. His first two starts this year had game scores of 50 and 61. Jeff Hoffman had a 6.56 ERA in 2019 and even worse 9.28 in 2020. He’s a major weakness in this solid Reds starting rotation. Cincinnati is returning home from six games in Arizona and San Francisco. This will be the very first lefty starter the Reds have faced this year. Looking at Hard Hit Percentage Cleveland ranks 7th in baseball and Cincinnati 15th. While the Reds have prospered ranking 4th in wRC+, the Indians rank 27th. Cincinnati has been very fortunate this season in hitting with runners in scoring position, Cleveland has been unlucky offensively. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-15-21 | Tigers +155 v. A's | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
971 Detroit at Oakland Listed Skubal & Manaea Last year the Tigers had a wRC+ of 163 on the road vs lefties, the A’s had a wRC+ of 98 hosting lefties. Tarik Skubal is coming off his worst start in this young season. The last time he pitched as poorly he came out with a 62 game score the following outing. Coming off a confidence building sweep at Houston, we expect that positive momentum to continue. Sean Manaea has fared well again Detroit but hasn’t faced them since 2019. This Detroit offense is much better than the ones he remembers. Oakland returns home off a successful road trip, including beating the Astros 2 of 3 in Houston. Let’s fade the likely overconfident host. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings +144 | 1-4 | Win | 144 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
60 Chicago at Detroit The Blackhawks have won five of the six meetings with the Red Wings this year. They just swept a two game series on the road at Columbus. This is a team coming in fat and happy. Detroit is playing much better than the earlier meetings with Chicago. So far this month the Red Wings have beaten Tampa Bay on the road 5-1, and swept Carolina away from home 5-4 and 3-1. This is a team with tremendous betting value right now. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 23rd and Detroit 28th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -0.35 and the Red Wings -0.29. Better than the actual goals differential. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 12th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 we see the Blackhawks +5.06 and the Red Wings +4.36. An advantage for the visitor, but much closer than the rankings suggest. Neither team is very good playing Short Handed. Chicago ranks 28th and Detroit 29th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -6.07 and the Wings -6.49. While Chicago is the better team, this spot favors Detroit. The advanced stats show these two to be much closer in talent than this line suggests. Look for Chicago to overlook the Red Wings tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -182 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
48 Nashville at Carolina The Predators have dropped all four meetings with the Hurricanes, but they have been playing much better as of late. Coming in off a dominating 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay. Carolina is playing its seventh of eight straight games at home, off an embarrassing loss to Detroit. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 the Preds rank 15th and the Hurricanes 10th. In xG/60 Nashville is +0.04 and Carolina +0.38. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Predators rank 18th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Nashville at +5.21 and Carolina +6.35. A substantial advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 27th and Carolina 3rd. In xG/60 the Preds are -6.07 and the Hurricanes -4.06. Another huge advantage for the host. While Nashville has played much better defensively as of late, this game means just as much to the host. The Canes are in a three way battle for the division title, and know it can beat this team after doing so in every meeting this year. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-15-21 | Flyers +144 v. Penguins | 2-1 | Win | 144 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
51 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh The Flyers have taken three of five meetings with the Penguins. Pittsburgh returns home from a profitable road trip. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Flyers rank 29th and the Penguins 9th. In looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Philadelphia -0.05 and the Penguins -0.07. So there is positive regression coming for Philly, with negative regression for Pittsburgh. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 22nd and Pittsburgh 7th. In xG/60 we see the Flyers at +5.67 and Pittsburgh +5.91. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 30th and Pittsburgh 22nd. In xG/60 its the Flyers at -6.61 and the Penguins -5.47. A solid advantage for the host. The Flyers have played better on the road this year and have confidence against its in state rival. The Penguins had a few days off after its road trip, which may not be a good thing as it played well away from home. Let’s take a shot with the Flyers here at a generous price. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-14-21 | Ducks v. Sharks -173 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -173 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
44 Anaheim at San Jose Both these teams are poor skating 5x5 in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 25th. In xG/60 we see the Ducks at -0.42 and the Sharks +0.04. So we can expect major positive regression for San Jose. Once again both teams have looked bad on the Power Play in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks dead last at 31st and San Jose is 26th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Anaheim +6.69 and the Sharks +6.28. So Anaheim has a bit of positive regression on its way. On the Penalty Kill Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Ducks are -6.55 and the Sharks -5.74. A nice advantage for the host. Anaheim has two wins in six games this month, both against these Sharks in this building. This is the third game in four days for Anaheim. This is the final game of a 1-3 home stand for the Sharks who then travel to Minnesota and Vegas. This is the game San Jose has to have and we believe they get it. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-14-21 | Reds -105 v. Giants | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
905 Cincinnati at San Francisco Listed Mahle & Cueto Johnny Cueto in his first two starts this year threw 105 and then 118 pitches. It’s the first time in years he has thrown that many pitches in back to back games. The 118 was the most he has had in quite some time. The last time he had over 110 pitches he was bombed in his subsequent start. Tyler Mahle was simply a different pitcher last year. A major improvement in his SO to BB ratio. He now has 75 strikeouts in his last 56.2 innings of work. He is an underrated starter and the line is pretty cheap here. Great value on the visiting Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-14-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
915 NY Yankees at Toronto Listed Kluber & Stripling Two pitchers we want to fade pitching against each other in an offensive positive ballpark. As a lifetime Indians fan we have always loved Corey Kluber. When healthy he was a bulldog, and a pitcher we often backed. But because of freak injuries he is just a shell of himself. We saw both his earlier starts and in neither game did he look like the same pitcher as he was in Cleveland. He has an average game score of 40 this year with a SO to BB ration of 8 to 5. He doesn’t have the same control as what he did in the past, and for a guy who relied on hitting the corners, he just doesn’t have that ability. We talked about Ross Stripling in his last start. He has been bombed by teams in the American League, and yet he’s in the Blue Jays rotation pitching in the most offensively dominant division in baseball. While neither team has gotten off to a hot start offensively, that all changes this afternoon. PLAY OVER |
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04-13-21 | Panthers -109 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
29 Florida at Dallas Quick turnaround game after the Stars beat the Panthers 4-1 on Saturday. Dallas lost at Nashville in a shootout between these two Florida contests. In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 13th and Dallas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.33 and the Stars +0.16. So slight regression in the favor of the visitor. On the Power Play the Panthers rank 11th and the Stars 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see Florida +6.76 and Dallas +6.58. Another situation that suggests Florida positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida ranks 15th and Dallas 22nd. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.17 and the Stars -6.18. Dallas is playing its third game in five days, so the rest and the revenge factor is in play for the visitor. With a solid 12-8-1 record on the road we will back the Panthers here. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-13-21 | Indians v. White Sox -102 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
976 Cleveland at Chicago WS Listed Bieber & Giolito This one should be a tremendous game as we have two elite pitchers dealing. While Bieber is the reigning Cy Young Winner, he hasn’t exactly dominated the White Sox over the years. In his last five against Chicago his average game score is 55. League average is 50, so he is doing well, but not nearly as dominant as he has been against most teams. Giolito on the other hand has a 70 average game score against the Tribe his last five starts in this series. In 33.2 innings his ERA is 1.07. The Indians are hitting above their heads right now, ranking 2nd in baseball with a 38.8% hard hit rate. Yet they have scored just 37 runs in eight games 4.63 runs per game. In 5 of 8 games Cleveland has scored four or less runs. If that’s all Cleveland can score when hitting the ball on the button, that tells you all you need to know about this limited offense. Rarely will be get the chance to play Giolito at home in this price range. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-12-21 | Reds v. Giants -111 | 3-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
912 Cincinnati at San Francisco Listed Miley & Sanchez In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Giants had a wRC+of 125 hosting lefties. The Reds currently lead all of baseball with a 153 wRC+. But keep in mind they are hitting lights out with runners in scoring position, and rank only 14th in hard hit rate. They scored a combined eight runs in three regulation games at Arizona, and the D’Backs aren’t exactly a strong pitching staff. Wade Miley is a crafty lefty but the Giants are already 4-1 when facing a southpaw starter. He is coming off a 73 game score in his season opener hosting Pittsburgh. Wiley has battled inconsistency throughout his entire career. Give us the host who rakes against lefties. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals +102 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at Kansas City Listed Cobb & Singer Last year the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties. The Royals had a wRC+ of 104 hosting righties. The Angels travel to KC after spending the weekend in Dunedin Florida, in the launching pad of the Jays Spring Training site. While yesterdays game was rained out, the team combined for 36 runs in the first three games of the series. The LA bullpen threw 314 pitches in that series. Alex Cobb has looked good in his last three starts dating back to last year. But he has never fared well against the Royals with his last five starts averaging a 44 game score. Brady Singer is a young pitcher we really like. And he did not fare well in the opener with a 30 game score vs Texas. In his final four starts of 2020 he produced game scores of 86, 75, 40 and 72. Three excellent and one below average start. Considering the Angels have never faced him as a starter, we give the advantage to the pitcher. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-12-21 | Maple Leafs -129 v. Canadiens | 2-4 | Loss | -129 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
3 Toronto at Montreal Two of the best 5x5 G+-/60 teams square off on Monday. Toronto ranks 3rd and Montreal 4th. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +0.53 and the Habs +0.52. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 25th and Montreal 13th. But when looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 the numbers tell a whole different story. As Toronto is +8.02 and Montreal +6.13. As Toronto is due for a major uptick in power play goals. Playing Short Handed the Leafs rank 19th and the Canadiens 14th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Toronto - 4.63 and Montreal -6.05. Once again Toronto is due for positive regression. With Montreal only good on 5x5 and the Maple Leafs excellent on the special teams, we will side with the visitor. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-12-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets +107 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
8 Chicago at Columbus The Blue Jackets are off back to back home losses to the Lightning and these Blackhawks. After this game Columbus goes on a six game road trip to Dallas, Florida and Tampa Bay. So this is a must win game for the Blue Jackets. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 24th and Columbus 27th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -0.36 and the Blue Jackets -0.44. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 12th and Columbus 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks +5.09 and the Blue Jackets +3.50. A substantial advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Blackhawks rank 28th and the Jackets 18th. In xG/60 we see Chicago -6.07 and Columbus -4.95. A nice advantage for the host. While the raw numbers may show Chicago to be slightly better, the Blue Jackets need, along with home ice put us squarely on the host. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-11-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
67 Buffalo at Philadelphia PUCK LINE PLAY ON BUFFALO +1 1/2 In 5x5 G+-/60 the Sabres rank 31st and the Flyers rank 29th. In xG/60 Buffalo is -0.46 and Philadelphia -0.07. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Sabres rank 13th and the Flyers are 22nd. In xG/60 Buffalo is +5.19 and Philadelphia is +5.51. Positive regression should be coming forth Flyers. On the Penalty Kill the Sabres rank 17th and the Flyers 29th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Buffalo is -6.79 and Philadelphia -6.59. So there is to be some slight regression for the host. The Flyers have the slightly better numbers and deserve to be favored, but not by anywhere near this number. Let’s take the puck line as we expect this to be a one goal game either way. PLAY BUFFALO +1 1/2 |
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04-11-21 | Yankees v. Rays +134 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
972 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Listed Pitchers Montgomery & Honeywell Jr In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ on the road vs righties of 87, the Rays had a wRC+ of 134 hosting lefties. Jordan Montgomery looked really good in his first start of the year, producing a 71 game score. But when looking at his last seven starts he is only slightly better than average at 51. He has struggled against the Rays with a 46 average game score in his previous five starts against the Bay. Brent Honeywell Jr is being called up to make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen game for the Rays. This is a pitcher that has been highly coveted throughout his career, but injuries have slowed down his development. We are excited for him to get the chance to make his debut today. With a loaded Rays minor league system, it’s telling why they brought him up for this start. Can’t forget that the Rays are 10-2 vs the Yankees the past two seasons. Getting them as a home underdog in this price range is a gift. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-10-21 | Oilers v. Flames +100 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
84 Edmonton at Calgary The Oilers enter this contest off back to back wins and playing its last game of a four game road trip. Calgary is off back to back home losses and haven’t played since Monday because of the Vancouver cancellation. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 15th and the Flames rank 22nd. In xG/60 we find Edmonton -0.03 and Calgary +0.03. Virtually even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Edmonton ranks 2nd and Calgary 19th. In xG/60 the Oilers are an outstanding +8.05 and the Flames are +5.33. A huge edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Edmonton ranks 22nd and the Flames come in 18th. In xG/60 the Oilers are -7.45 and Calgary is -5.97. A substantial advantage for the host. With extra time to prepare the host has the advantage because of the in season coaching change. This team has time to practice and prepare for the end of season run. It starts here for the Flames. PLAY CALGARY |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays -112 | 1-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
922 LA Angels at Toronto Quintana & Matz Last year the Angels had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties. Toronto had a 117 wRC+ hosting lefties. Steven Matz had great success in his first start on the season. Although is was at Texas against a lesser hitting team. Jose Quintana hasn’t faced Toronto since 2017. His last seven starts overall have resulted in a 33 Game Score. His best start was a 49 which was still less than the league average of 50. We like this Jays lineup against southpaws and believe this line is simply too cheap not to back them. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-10-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -120 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
52 Winnipeg at Montreal Quick revenge spot for the Habs who we backed in a 4-2 loss on Thursday. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Jets rank 13th and the Canadiens rank 2nd. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -0.31 and Montreal +0.56. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 6th and Montreal ranks 18th. Looking at the advanced stats we find the Jets +6.18 and the Canadiens +6.10. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. And also suggesting positive regression for the Habs. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Jets rank 14th and the Habs 12th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg at -6.66 and Montreal at -5.97. Montreal outplayed Winnipeg the other day and puck luck cost them a victory. They get it back with a cheap line on Saturday. PLAY MONTREAL |
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04-10-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -103 | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
54 Chicago at Columbus Neither team has had a good season skating 5x5. In G+-/60 Chicago ranks 24th and Columbus 27th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.35 and the Blue Jackets -0.46. On the Power Play the Blackhawks rank 12th and the Jackets 28th. In xG/60 we find Chicago +4.98 and Columbus +3.53. A nice advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Chicago comes in 28th and Columbus 17th. In xG/60 we see the Blackhawks at -6.13 and Columbus -4.78. A sizable advantage for the host. Columbus is off a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay that was out of hand early. The spot favors the host and the stats show this as a very even game. Our numbers show the Blue Jackets to be a -130 favorite here, which gives us plenty of leeway. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights -230 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
42 Arizona at Vegas Coyotes playing in their sixth game of a nine game road trip. The Knights have dropped four of five games but are now playing ten straight against teams likely not making the playoffs. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 19th, while the Golden Knights come in ranking 7th. In xG/60 we see Arizona -0.26 and Vegas +0.24. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find the Coyotes ranking 22nd, and the Knight ranking 21st. In xG/60 Arizona is +4.53 and Vegas is +7.11. Playing Short Handed Arizona ranks 10th and the Knights 5th. In xG/60 The Coyotes are -8.12 and the Golden Knights are -5.90. While we are aware that the Coyotes are playing much better as of late, the truth is this is a terrible matchup for Arizona. Not only do the Golden Knights dominate the year long stats, but this is a team ready to pound someone. Lay it with the host. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-09-21 | Reds v. Diamondbacks +133 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
958 Cincinnati at Arizona Mahle & Widener In 2020 the Reds had a wRC+ of 83 on the road vs righties, the Diamondbacks had a 109 wRC+ hosting righties. Well aware of how well this Reds offense has been producing. But keep in mind this team is overly due to regress. They are far and away the MLB leader in hitting with runners in scoring position, that has major regression written all over it. Batted ball data also has the Reds ranking 18th in hard hit percentage. Arizona is 15th by comparison. So we have one offense that has been very fortunate, and another that is doing better than the actual results. Plenty of value of the home underdog here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-09-21 | Yankees v. Rays +121 | 5-10 | Win | 121 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
960 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Kluber & Hill In 2020 the Yankees had a wRC+ of 85 on the road vs lefties, the Rays had a wRC+ of 107 hosting righties. Here we have two pitchers with terrific careers in the downside of their playing days. Kluber hasn’t faced the Rays since 2018, and Hill hasn’t taken on the Bronx Bombers since 2016. So we can throw away any past pitcher records. What we can look at is if the advanced stats can lead us to victory. We already know the Yankees worst subset last year was facing lefties on the road. Because of the short right field porch in Yankees Stadium the team stacks its lineup with pull happy lefties. Looking at Hard Hit % on the season NY ranks 21st and Tampa 23rd. As good as the Yankees have been with the high payroll the last few years, Tampa Bay has matched up well against them. Last year the Rays took 8 of 10, and over two years Tampa Bay leads 15 to 14. Give us the Rays here is a nice home underdog role. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-21 | Lightning -205 v. Blue Jackets | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
13 Tampa Bay at Columbus The Lightning have lost 5 of 7 games as of late, with back to back losses to Detroit and Columbus. This team needs to right the ship as its about to head to Nashville and face the suddenly competitive Predators. Columbus broke a three game losing streak Tuesday with the 4-2 victory over the Lightning. In that game the Blue Jackets jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead, so Tampa had to play catchup the entire game. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 4th and the Blue Jackets 28th. In xG/60 we find the Lightning +0.30 and Columbus -0.44. A sizable advantage for the slumping Lightning. On the Power Play Tampa Bay ranks 3rd and the Blue Jackets 26th. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.06 and Columbus +3.39. You can’t find many wider advantages in this category. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Lightning rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 15th. In xG/60 we find Tampa Bay -4.68 and Columbus -4.84. Despite the high line in this game it is deserved. We get a much superior team with a major chip on its shoulder, vs a team that just embarrassed them two days ago. Lay it with the Lightning. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -120 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
16 Winnipeg at Montreal Because the Jets had their two game series with Vancouver postponed because of Covid issues, this team has only played twice this month. The Habs on the other hand are playing its fifth game of the month, and second of a back to back after playing in Toronto last night. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 the Jets rank 13th and the Canadiens 2nd. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -0.34 and the Habs are +0.63, basically a full goal per 60 minutes of 5x5 action. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Jets rank 6th and the Canadiens 15th. In xG/60 Winnipeg is +6.21 and Montreal +6.01. So much closer than the actual goals scored would suggest. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Jets rank 16th and the Habs 12th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -6.44 and Montreal -6.07. PLAY MONTREAL |
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04-08-21 | Penguins +111 v. Rangers | 5-2 | Win | 111 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
17 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins are playing in their fourth of a six game road trip. They are 2-2 on the season avenging a loss in a two game road series. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Penguins rank 12th and the Rangers 11th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -0.09 and the Rangers are +0.12. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Pittsburgh ranks 16th and New York 18th. In xG/60 we find the Penguins +5.29 and the Rangers +7.32. A solid advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Penguins rank 23rd and the Rangers 2nd. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -5.44 and New York is -5.45. Virtually equal and a huge difference with the actual goals scored. This is where expected goals provide us with value, as the general fan will only look at the rankings, as opposed to the raw advanced numbers. With Pittsburgh in for major positive regression on the penalty kill, and the Rangers playing well over their heads in the same category, we find value on the avenging road team. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-08-21 | Angels +103 v. Blue Jays | 7-5 | Win | 103 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
915 LA Angels at Toronto Canning & Stripling In 2020 the Angels had a wRC+ of 97 on the road vs righties, Toronto had a wRC+ of 110 hosting righties. This game is being played in Dunedin Florida. Griffin Canning is a talented youngster who has had major injuries in his young career. When he is healthy he is someone under the radar we want to back. We never understood the Ross Stripling signing in Toronto. His deficiencies were being masked by pitching in the NL West. Just look at his stats last year when not pitching in Dodger Stadium. In 22.2 innings on the road he permitted 16 earned runs and had a WHIP of 1.558. Against the American League he permitted 17 earned runs in only 19.1 innings of work. In his only start this year he had a game score of 37. Allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings. Simply put he is a gas can when facing quality offenses, and the Angels can get to him very early. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
914 Kansas City at Chicago WS Keller & Lynn In 2020 the Royals had a wRC+ of 79 on the road vs righties, Chicago had a wRC+ of 111 hosting righties. Big fan of both these pitchers as in our mind they never get enough attention for their success. Brad Keller has a 56 average game score his last five starts against the Sox, all within the past two seasons. Lance Lynn has had similar success against the Royals, with a 55 average game score the past five starts. Keller was crushed in his first start of the season, allowing six earned runs in only 1.1 innings. Last year he had three starts that were worse than the league average 50 game score. In his following starts he put up game scores of 66, 78 and 69. In June on in 2019 after a league average or worse performance his game scores were 56, 65, 71, 77, 50, and 57. Expect a big bounce back from Keller as these two go head to head in a great pitching performance. PLAY UNDER |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10 Arizona at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 20th and the Kings 22nd. In xG/60 we see Arizona at -0.28 and LA at -0.42. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Coyotes are ranked 23rd and the Kings 11th. In xG/60 we find Arizona +4.48 and Los Angeles +6.55. A significant advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 12th and LA 7th. In xG/60 we see the Coyotes at -8.12 and the Kings -6.68. Another nice advantage for the host. After falling behind 3-0 on Monday, the Coyotes never stood a chance. We look for the host to get its revenge Wednesday. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -145 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
4 Montreal at Toronto Two of the best 5x5 G+-/60 squads do battle on Wednesday. Montreal ranks 2nd and Toronto 5th. In xG/60 we find the Habs +0.63 and the Leafs +0.49. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 14th and Toronto 4th. In xG/60 its the Canadiens +6.01 and the Leafs +8.14. A solid advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 14th and Toronto 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Habs -6.07 and the Maple Leafs -4.79. So the regression is in the favor of the host. Cheap line considering how much better the Maple Leafs are in special teams. Lay it with the host. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-07-21 | Rays +106 v. Red Sox | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
967 Tampa Bay at Boston Yarbrough & Eovaldi In 2020 Tampa had a wRC+ of 104 on the road vs righties, Boston had an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties. The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series, but its clear Tampa has the better team. Over the past 2+ seasons the Rays have won 19 of the 31 meetings in this series. We also prefer the lefty starter in this contest, along with the better bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi finished last year with five straight better than average performances, and he looked good in his first outing. But we remain sceptic of his progress. Give us the better team off back to back losses. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-07-21 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
970 Kansas City at Cleveland Junis & Bieber In 2020 the Royals had a 79 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Cleveland had an 85 wRC+ hosting righties. The Royals have gotten off to a hot hitting start with a wRC+ on the season of 147, tied for third in baseball. But while we like this young hitting team, they will be facing the reigning Cy Young Winner on Wednesday. Shane Bieber has produced game scores of 75, 77 and 61 his last three starts against KC. In his opening day start in the snow of Detroit he had a 59 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 50. The Indians have an 84 wRC+ so far this season. That’s 16% worst than a league average team. The Indians have four good major league hitters, and plenty of question marks. We can’t see either team scoring more than four runs in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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04-06-21 | White Sox -140 v. Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
925 Chicago White Sox at Seattle Giolito & Paxton In 2020 Chicago had a 129 wRC+ on the road vs lefties, Seattle 85 hosing righties. If you remember back to last season the White Sox feasted on lefties, with the best won/loss record in the league. They are already 1-0 in that regard this year, and will be facing a Seattle lefty for the second straight game on Tuesday. Giolito is expected to have success against this weaker Seattle lineup, and we simply love this Chicago bullpen. The Mariners have a good young corps of players in the upper minors, who will help the team later on this season. But they likely have no answers for the dominant Chicago offense. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-06-21 | Sabres +138 v. Devils | 5-3 | Win | 138 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
51 Buffalo at New Jersey In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Buffalo ranks 31st and New Jersey 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sabres at -0.41 and the Devils -0.08. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Sabres rank 16th and the Devils 30th. In xG/60 we see Buffalo +5.39 and the Devils +4.20. A nice advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Buffalo ranks 14th and New Jersey 28th. In xG/60 the Sabres are -6.75 and the Devils -7.46. So while New Jersey has the advantage even strength, the Sabres are better on both special teams. Nice underdog value of the visitor. PLAY BUFFALO |
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04-06-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -113 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
54 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins are playing its third straight game of a six game road trip. The Rangers have had two days off after being upset at Buffalo. Both teams rank in the lower half of the league in 5x5 G+-/60. Pittsburgh is 23rd and the Rangers 20th. In xG/60 we find the Penguins -0.09 and the Rangers +0.14. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Pittsburgh ranks 13th and the Rangers 20th. In xG/60 the Penguins are +5.21 and New York +7.19. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 New York ranks 4th and Pittsburgh 18th. In xG/60 the Rangers are -5.40 and the Penguins -5.26. The Rangers are the better overall team in our regard, and the scheduling spot is in their favor. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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04-05-21 | Golden Knights -123 v. Blues | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
45 Vegas at St Louis Must win game for the Golden Knights who just dropped three straight at home to the Kings and the Wild. After this two game series with St Louis the schedule gets easier with contests against Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose. The bottom four teams in the division. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 8th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 Vegas is +0.12 and St Louis -0.18. On the Power Play Vegas ranks 21st and St Louis 11th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Knights +6.23 and the Blues +6.04. So these two are much closer than the actual goals scored would tell. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 7th and St Louis 25th. In xG/60 the Golden Knights are -5.88 and the Blues -7.89. A huge advantage for the visitor. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-05-21 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +135 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
966 Toronto at Texas Matz & Foltynewicz Last year the Jays had a 101 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Texas an 89 wRC+ hosting lefties. Tough spot for Toronto after really getting up to play the Yankees in New York. After winning two of three there has to be some type of letdown here against one of the weaker teams in baseball. Both pitchers have struggled with injuries. Just can’t turn down the host in this price range. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-04-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks +117 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
38 Arizona at Anaheim Quick revenge spot for the host who dropped a 4-2 decision to Arizona on Friday. This is the third game of a season high nine game road trip for the Coyotes. In 5x5 play G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 21st and the Ducks 28th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -0.32 and the Ducks -0.36. Basically even which should give the host positive regression. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 25th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 it’s +3.98 for the Coyotes and +5.36 for the Ducks. A sizable advantage for the host as they have had poor puck luck on the Power Play. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 10th and the Ducks 26th. In xG/60 Arizona comes in at -8.02 and Anaheim -6.21. Once again a sizable edge for the host, and a major positive regression candidate. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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04-04-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
32 Dallas at Carolina This is the fourth game of a six game road trip for the Stars. Carolina is in the midst of its longest home stand of the season. The Hurricanes have lost in regulation just twice all season, one coming yesterday to these Stars. In 5x5 action G+-/60 numbers Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.24 and the Hurricanes +0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Stars rank 9th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Dallas at +6.43 and Carolina +6.42. Virtually even, and positive regression for Dallas. On the Penalty Kill Dallas ranks 24th and Carolina 6th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Stars are -6.37 and the Hurricanes -4.13, a huge advantage for the host. We played Dallas yesterday and were rewarded with a victory. Today we look for the Hurricanes to even up the weekend series. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-04-21 | Astros v. A's -106 | 9-2 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
922 Houston at Oakland Urquidy & Manaea Houston had a 72 wRC+ last year on the road vs lefties. Oakland a 108 wRC+ hosting righties. The past three seasons Houston has won 16 of 31 meetings, including all three games of this series. But Brantley was hit by a pitch on his wrist yesterday and will likely sit this one out. Manaea is often overlooked in this rotation but he is a solid MLB starter. We lost on the A’s yesterday, our only defeat on a five game multi-sport card. We give Oakland another chance here as we like this pitching matchup. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-04-21 | Capitals v. Devils +154 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
28 Washington at New Jersey In 5x5 G+-/60 the Capitals rank 5th and the Devils 18th. In xG/60 Washington is +0.06 and New Jersey -0.10. So the advanced stats show these two much closer at full strength than the ranking would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Washington ranks 12th and New Jersey 29th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals +6.60 and the Devils +4.10. A very significant advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Washington ranks 11th and New Jersey 27th. In xG/60 the Capitals are -5.27 and the Devils -7.28. Another sizable advantage for the visitor. Washington is in the middle of a five game road trip, playing its third game in four days. They have swept the season series against the Devils and this is the last time New Jersey plays them this season. The Capitals also have a major lookahead to a meeting with the Islanders on Tuesday. Those two played Thursday and the Capitals were embarrassed giving up eight goals. Washington just beat New Jersey 2-1 on the second game of a back to back. If you want to talk fat and happy teams this is it. We expect Washington to take the Devils for granted and look past them here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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04-04-21 | Indians v. Tigers +121 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
916 Cleveland at Detroit Civiale & Skubal Last year Cleveland on the road vs lefties had an 87 wRC+, and already have been shut down by Matthew Boyd on opening day. Detroit had an 82 wRC+ hosting righties. Many people we trust are enamored by Aaron Civale, but while he is a solid number three starter, we lack that same judgement. We just haven’t been enamored by what he has accomplished. The future may be bright, but until we see it on a regular basis we can only judge him on what he has done. Skubal blew people away in record numbers in the minors, and simply put this Indians lineup is very weak. Money has come in on the host, but there is still plenty of value on the young lefty. Look for the Tigers to continue the Cleveland offensive downfall. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-04-21 | Orioles +150 v. Red Sox | 11-3 | Win | 150 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
917 Baltimore at Boston Zimmerman & Richards In 2020 Baltimore had a 111 wRC+ on the road vs righties, Boston an 86 wRC+ hosting lefties. As bad as the Orioles have been the past few years they have won 14 of 31 games against the Sox, including the first two this season. This line is simply too high and has slowly been bet down overnight. Can’t trust the often injured Richards to go more than four innings here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-04-21 | Braves -108 v. Phillies | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
903 Atlanta at Philadelphia Anderson & Eflin In 2020 the Braves had a road wRC+ of 114 vs righties, the Phillies 114 at home vs righties. This game opened up with the Braves being a sizable favorite, but has now been bet down too much in our opinion. Anderson could end up being the ace of this team by the end of the year. That’s really saying something as the front of this rotation is loaded. Eflin is nothing but a mid-rotation starter in our opinion. Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but the Braves are clearly the better team. With both teams playing the vast majority of starters today, the Braves get into the win column. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-03-21 | Sharks +109 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
23 San Jose at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Los Angeles 21st. In xG/60 we find the Sharks -0.01 and the Kings -0.41. So luck has been on the side of Los Angeles when skating at full strength. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 23rd and LA 10th. In xG/60 we see the Sharks +6.65 and the Kings +6.44. So San Jose has played much better than the actual goals scored, LA is in for some negative regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 16th and Los Angeles 6th. But when looking at the advanced metric of xG/60 we find the Sharks -5.53 and the Kings -6.26. So there is likely heavy regression for both these teams. The actual goal scoring numbers have these two rated very equally, but the advanced stats show the wrong team is favored. The Sharks dominated play yesterday against the top goalie of the Kings, we look for more domination tonight. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-03-21 | Stars +138 v. Hurricanes | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
15 Dallas at Carolina In 5x5 G+-/60 the Stars rank 10th and the Hurricanes 5th. In xG/60 we find Dallas at +0.30 and Carolina +0.36. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 1st. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.36 and the Hurricanes +6.46. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. Playing short Handed the Stars rank 26th and the Hurricanes 4th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.09 and Carolina -4.02. The only real differential between these two teams. Is that along with home ice advantage enough to have the Hurricanes this high a favorite? We don’t think so, give us the Stars. PLAY DALLAS |
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04-03-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
8 Columbus at Florida In 5x5 G+-/60 Columbus ranks 25th and Florida 12th. When looking at the advanced stats we see the Jackets -0.41 in xG/60 and the Panthers +0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 26th and Florida 8th. In xG/60 the Jackets are +3.50 and the Panthers +7.02. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 20th and Florida 14th. In xG/60 we see the Jackets -5.01 and the Panthers -5.88. So there is some regression ahead for both these squads. From a scheduling standpoint Florida is in the middle of a four game home stand. Columbus on the other hand is in the middle of six straight on the road, coming off back to back victories over Tampa Bay. We see a fat and happy Blue Jackets team heading into a buzzsaw here. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-03-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -116 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
958 St Louis at Cincinnati In 2020 St Louis on the road vs righties had an 87 xRC+, Cincy at home vs righties a 109 wRC+. We have these two rated very close with the Cardinals having a slight edge. But in addition to the home field advantage, we much prefer Taylor Mahle over Adam Wainwright. Mahle is one of the pitchers we are expecting to break out this season. Hats off to Wainwright for an outstanding career, but at this time his best days are far in the distance. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-03-21 | Astros v. A's +130 | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
972 Houston at Oakland The Astros had a 72 wRC+ on the road vs lefties last year, the A’s a 108 wRC+ home vs righties. Houston has won 16 of the last 31 games played in this series, so just about as even as you can get. The Astros have outscored the Athletics 17 to 6 in the opening two games. McCullers in his last four starts against Oakland had game scores of 60, 26, 61 and 48, an average of 49. League average is 50, so he has been basically an average pitcher in those contests. Cole Irvin has a 47 average game score in his three career starts vs the Astros. Once again, very similar to McCullers. So based on head to head history, and preseason projections these teams are very similar. Yet based on the line we find nice home underdog value on the Athletics. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-02-21 | Giants +106 v. Mariners | 6-3 | Win | 106 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
927 San Francisco at Seattle Cueto & Kikuchi In 2020 the Giants had a wRC+ of 113 on the road vs lefties, the Mariners home vs righties an 85 xRC+. Kikuchi has been highly publicized for improving his velocity in the offseason, but even the most confident observers would have to admit he was terrible last year. While we do think he is due for some positive regression, this price is simply too high. We like the young talent on its way for the Mariners, but this is still going to be a team fighting to stay out of the divisional cellar with the Rangers. After blowing a late lead last night we look for the Giants to be on the right side of this one. San Francisco has won 4 of the 5 meetings the last two seasons. And Johnny Cueto has a strange delivery for those who haven’t faced him. The Giants are the better team at a plus price. Can’t argue with that. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-02-21 | Maple Leafs -135 v. Jets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
61 Toronto at Winnipeg The Maple Leafs are the clearly better team and the scheduling situation shows a level playing field. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 7th and the Jets 14th. In xG/60 its Toronto +0.50 and Winnipeg -0.36. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 4th and Winnipeg 5th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.14 and the Jets +6.09. The advanced stat shows Toronto to be far superior than the actual results. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we find Toronto ranking 21st and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 the Maple Leafs are -4.75 and the Jets -6.43. So we can look forward to positive regression for Toronto, and negative regression for the host. This should be a dominant game for the Maple Leafs. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-01-21 | Astros -103 v. A's | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
983 Houston at Oakland Greinke & Bassitt The Astros had a 102 wRC+ vs righties, Oakland 105 vs righties last year. Zack Greinke has had a long career of success, he won’t be intimidated by being the number one starter. Chris Bassit we can’t be certain about. He basically came out of nowhere last year and was a solid contributor to this staff. That said, he’s certainly not a number one on this team in talent. He would be hard pressed to be a true number three in this rotation. Big fan of this Oakland offense, when it comes to depth this could be one of the deepest teams in the league. The Houston lineup enters the season fully healthy, something we didn’t see a lot of last year. And keep in mind even with those injuries and the backlash of the cheating scandal, the Astros made the playoffs. George Springer will be a sizable loss for many teams, but these Astros can beat you in many ways. How many other squads can match the speed of this team, and that’s with an aging Jose Altuve. We like the price here on the veteran Greinke. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-01-21 | White Sox -111 v. Angels | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
981 Chicago WS at LA Angels Giolitto & Bundy The White Sox had a 98 wRC+ vs righties, the Angels 112 vs righties in 2020. When looking at hard hit percentage from last year the top seven teams all made the playoffs. Chicago came in at number six, the Angels? 20th. Yes, Eloy Jimenez is out of the lineup for the majority of the season. But the Sox have been dying to get young Andrew Vaughn into the lineup. There was a lot of hype on this team before the injury, it seems to have subsided a bit since. That keeps this line in the playable range. We love the back of this White Sox bullpen, it’s loaded with good hard throwing arms. The Angels are a team we traditionally look to fade, with great success. It’s a major metro area with the face of baseball Mike Trout. They also have Shohei Ohtani, who always is an interesting story. But the truth of the matter is this team is loaded with question marks. The top four hitters are solid, but there are many concerns about the lower half of the order. The starters after Dylan Bundy need to remain healthy. Something you just can’t expect. We are a big fan of the bullpen changes in the offseason. That’s likely the strength of this team. Other than the Brewers and Rays, how many teams have made the playoffs off the strength of their bullpen? Cheap number here for the clearly more talented squad. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes -153 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
53 Carolina at Chicago In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 9th and Chicago 24th. Looking at the advanced stats of G/60 we see the Hurricanes +0.29 and the Blackhawks at 0.39. That’s a sizable margin for the visitor. Both teams excel on the Power Play in G+-/60 with the Hurricanes ranking 1st and the Hawks 6th. In xG/60 Carolina is +6.48 and Chicago +5.17. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 5th and the Blackhawks 25th. In xG/60 we find Carolina -3.94 and Chicago -5.85. While the number is high for the road favorite, the revenge motive and the advanced stats put us clearly on the Hurricanes. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-01-21 | Rays v. Marlins +135 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
988 Tampa Bay at Miami Glasnow & Alcantara The Rays had a wRC+ of 105 last year against righties, Miami 89 vs right handers. Tampa Bay is still a very good team, but maybe a few spots lower in the power ratings compared to the World Series team of a year ago. Miami has one of the best pitching rotations in baseball, especially when looking at the future. This team surprised everyone last year, and have quality young players on the way. Tampa Bay has the better team, and the starting pitching also favors the visitor. But this line is much higher than we expected. Baseball betting is all about taking value, and the Rays are simply overrated in the betting markets. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-01-21 | Twins -105 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
985 Minnesota at Milwaukee Maeda & Woodruff The Twins had a 108 wRC+ against righties, the Brewers 84 vs righties last season. Be warned the Twins best hitter DH Nelson Cruz will not be in the starting lineup, he’s a true DH that doesn’t play the field. He will likely get a pitch hitting assignment. This Minnesota team, just like its division rival Chicago squad, is loaded. The back of the bullpen is elite, and the offense doesn’t have a weakness. Kenta Maeda was up for the Cy Young last year and we could very well see a repeat. This is a legit World Series contender, just hope they don’t catch the Yankees in the early rounds. Milwaukee is a good team, but not great. We love Woodruff and Burnes, but the back of the rotation has challenges. The players they signed in the offseason aren’t much better than the ones they let go. There is young talent, but for the most part unproven. In this price range there is only one way to look. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-31-21 | Maple Leafs -137 v. Jets | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
29 Toronto at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 8th and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 Toronto has a +0.47 to -0.32 advantage. So it’s clear that Winnipeg has had better puck luck that the team really deserves. On the Power Play Toronto ranks 3rd and Winnipeg 5th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +8.42 and the Jets +6.24. Once again a much wider margin than the actual results would suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 23rd and Winnipeg 18th. In xG/60 the Leafs are -4.83 and the Jets -6.63. Once again Toronto is better than the results show, while Winnipeg has been very fortunate. The schedule also is in the favor of the visitor as Winnipeg returns home off a successful ending to a seven game road trip through Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary. Toronto is coming off an overtime home loss to Edmonton. The Maple Leafs are clearly superior in every facet of the game, and they catch a tired Jets team running on fumes. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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03-29-21 | Islanders -108 v. Penguins | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
1 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh Two ways to look at this game. The first is comparing the two teams. That would put us clearly on the Islanders who are much better on 5x5 and the Power Play. The other way to handicap this game is the schedule. The Islanders are playing its fourth straight road game in three different cities. Pittsburgh on the other hand is playing its fifth straight home game. On Saturday Pittsburgh won 6-3, that tied a season worst goals against for New York. With the Penguins coming in off three victories, outscoring the opposition 15 to 5, we will look for talent to win over the spot. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
644 Oregon & USC The Ducks looked really good when playing the fast tempo of Iowa, but this game should be played at a much slower pace. Oregon has great athletes that can get out and run with the best of them. But that’s not what USC wants to do. You can see the Ducks problems in the previous 72-58 loss to the Trojans. Oregon couldn’t get to the line and shot just 16 of 40 from two point range. USC leads the country in defending around the basket, and rank 7th in both defensive adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Give us the Trojans. PLAY USC |
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03-28-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks -113 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
68 Nashville at Chicago Quick rematch for these two. In 5x5 G+-/60 we see Nashville ranked 18th and Chicago 23rd. In xG/60 the Predators are +0.02 and the Blackhawks -0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 15th and Chicago 7th. In xG/60 we see the Preds at +5.33 and the Hawks +5.44. On the Penalty Kill these are two of the worst teams in the league. Nashville ranking 29th and Chicago 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Predators are -6.49 and the Hawks -5.89. Nashville won yesterday but the advanced numbers stated Chicago was the better team. We look for the host to get the best of the Preds tonight. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-28-21 | Devils v. Bruins -180 | 1-0 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
62 New Jersey at Boston In 5x5 G+-/60 the Devils rank 22nd and Boston 16th. In xG/60 it’s New Jersey -0.11 and the Bruins exactly even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find New Jersey ranked 26th and Boston 21st. In xG/60 it’s the Devils +4.18 and the Bruins +5.81. A major advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Jersey ranks 28th and Boston 1st. In xG/60 we see the Devils -7.29 and the Bruins -3.98. Another huge advantage for Boston. While these two are virtually equal when playing 5x5, the Bruins dominate on special teams. The only way the Devils can win this is playing a clean game, something we simply can’t expect. Lay it. PLAY BOSTON |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
648 Syracuse & Houston It’s been another nice run through the tournament for Jim Boeheim and his boys. But we feel this is where it comes to an end. A major reason is the offensive glass dominance of the Cougars. Syracuse ranks 339th in the nation, allowing 34.0% offensive rebounding to the opposition. Houston is the second best in the country with an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.8. The biggest weakness for Houston is allowing the opposition to get to the line, ranking 332nd in the country. But Syracuse isn’t a team that draws fouls ranking 266th offensively. The Orangemen rank out of the top 100 in both three and two point offensive shooting percentage, while Houston against a lesser schedule is 12th and 4th in those categories. Just a terrible matchup for the Orangemen. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-27-21 | Panthers v. Stars -109 | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
48 Florida at Dallas These two rank 13th and 14th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.39 and Dallas +0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Florida ranks 9th and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 the Panthers are +7.04 and the Stars +6.28. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Stars 22nd. In xG/60 Florida is -5.81 and Dallas -6.37. Florida is playing its fourth and fifth games on this road trip. They have yet to win being outscored by an 11 to 5 margin. Dallas is in the midst of a five game home stand. The season to date numbers show that Florida is the better team, but the Panthers have been struggling. Give us the Stars at home in a nice priced affair. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-27-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes +103 | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
42 Tampa Bay at Carolina In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 the Lightning are +0.30 and the Hurricanes +0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 these are the two highest ranked teams in the league. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.39 and the Hurricanes +6.16. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Tampa ranks 10th and Carolina 5th. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.64 and the Hurricanes -4.05. Tampa just split on the road at Dallas after an important home victory over Florida on Sunday. Carolina returns home after two wins in Columbus. Our numbers have these two teams rated almost equally, and yet the Hurricanes are a home underdog. Carolina has been beaten in regulation in this building just once all season. In an epic battle give us the home underdog Hurricanes. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-26-21 | Sharks +108 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
29 San Jose at Arizona The Sharks have played very well since opening the season with 12 straight road games. They end the month with 6 of 8 games played at home. The only road games are the two here in Arizona. Arizona is off a shocking upset shootout winner hosting Colorado. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Sharks rank 20th and the Coyotes 25th. In xG/60 we find San Jose at -0.07 and Arizona -0.31. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Arizona 25th. In xG/60 the Sharks are +6.38, and the Coyotes +4.00. A major advantage for San Jose. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Sharks are 19th, and Coyotes rank 10th. In xG/60 we find San Jose -5.77, and the Coyotes -8.22. So obviously these two have had far different luck when looking at the advanced stats. Because of that poor puck luck for the Sharks, we find plenty of value on San Jose in this one. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
15 Florida at Chicago These two met on Tuesday with the Blackhawks winning 3-2. But that was an obvious let down spot for the Panthers who had beaten Chicago the previous Monday, and were coming off the big showdown loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 10th and the Hawks 23rd. In xG/60 we find Florida at +0.38 and Chicago -0.31. A strong advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play both teams have fared well with Florida ranking 5th and Chicago 7th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Panthers +7.15 and the Blackhawks +5.49. A much bigger discrepancy than the actual goals. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Blackhawks 27th. In xG/60 we find Florida -5.78, and Chicago -5.91. Closer than the actual Penalty Killing numbers. Chicago has been a surprise thus far, but Florida is the better team off back to back losses. Give us the Panthers to take this one. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-24-21 | Kings -105 v. Sharks | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
77 Los Angeles at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 20th and San Jose 21st. In xG/60 the Kings are -0.44, and the Sharks -0.06. Although the Kings have played much better as of late than early in the season. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Los Angeles ranked 6th and San Jose 22nd. In xG/60 the Kings are +6.61 and the Sharks 6.24. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 LA ranks 7th and San Jose 18th. In xG/60 the Kings are -6.01 and the Sharks -5.63. So the Sharks are due for some positive regression. The Kings have played three of four at home heading into this quick revenge game at San Jose. They then get the next four days off before heading to Vegas. San Jose has a two game trip to Arizona, before coming home to face the Wild Twice. We were rewarded with a 2-1 Sharks victory the last time these two played. But we thought the Kings were the better team. Coming off that loss and with four days off, it’s imperative LA gets this victory. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-24-21 | Jets v. Canucks +127 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
80 Winnipeg at Vancouver In 5x5 G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Vancouver 24th. In xG/60 we see the Jets -0.31 and the Canucks -0.46. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 8th and Vancouver 23rd. In xG/60 it’s +5.66 for the Jets, and +5.57 for the Canucks. So these two are much closer than the actual results suggest. On the Penalty Kill we rank in G+-/60 Winnipeg 16th and Vancouver 14th. In xG/60 we find the Jets -6.47 and the Canucks -6.91. So the Jets are due some positive regression. Winnipeg is playing in its fourth game of seven straight on the road. Coming off a 4-0 shutout of these Canucks on Monday. Vancouver doesn’t play again until next Wednesday hosting Calgary. With Winnipeg on a long road trip, with three games against Calgary on deck. This is a great spot to fade the tired visitor. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
572 Charlotte at Houston This seems to be a very good matchup for Houston. The Rockets rank 6th in the league in shots at the rim, and the Hornets are 26th in rim percentage shots allowed, and 25th in rim defense. Charlotte is at its best defensively in mid-range shots. But Houston ranks 30th in the league in mid-range attempts. Houston likes to shoot from distance, and this Charlotte defense gives up a great deal of threes. Ranking 30th in corner threes and 29th overall. The Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball who is out for four weeks after right wrist surgery. They rebounded from the loss to the likely rookie of the year, with a 100-97 victory over San Antonio on Monday. Teams tend to step up after a star player injury the first game, but struggle then after. That’s what we expect here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-24-21 | Flames -167 v. Senators | 1-3 | Loss | -167 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
69 Calgary at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Calgary ranking 17th and Ottawa 30th. In xG/60 the Flames are +0.08, and the Sens -0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Calgary ranks 17th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Flames are +4.99 and the Senators +5.33. So positive regression is coming for the Sens. On the Penalty Kill Calgary ranks 15th and Ottawa 23rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Flames are -5.75, and the Senators -6.06. Calgary coming into this series had played Montreal twice, Edmonton twice and Toronto twice. On deck they have three games hosting Winnipeg. This is a great spot to avenge the 2-1 Tuesday loss. Ottawa is in the midst of five of six home games, including facing Toronto here tomorrow. The Sens had a huge scheduling advantage on Tuesday after having the four previous days off. That’s not the case here playing three games in four days. PLAY CALGARY |
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03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars +156 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
66 Tampa Bay at Dallas In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 1st and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 it’s the Lightning +0.32 and the Stars +0.31. Virtually even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Lightning rank 3rd and the Stars 14th. In xG/60 Tampa is +6.40, and Dallas +6.08. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 8th and Dallas 21st. In xG/60 we find the Lightning -4.40 and the Stars -6.39. A hugh advantage for the visitor. Tampa Bay has already beaten Dallas twice this month on the road, and all three meetings this season. They are coming in off an impressive 5-3 win over Florida. The only other good team they face this month is at Carolina after this two game slate. The Lightning are a really good team but have been feasting on weak opposition. With this series sandwiched between Florida and Carolina, we can see Tampa Bay overlooking the Stars here. Off three straight home losses we expect a supreme effort from the host. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators -150 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
64 Detroit at Nashville In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Nashville 27th. In xG/60 the Red Wings are -0.41 and the Preds -0.07. A sizable edge for the host, along with positive regression. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Detroit 30th and Nashville 19th. The Red Wings in xG/60 are +4.79 and the Predators +5.41. On the Penalty Kill these are the two worst teams in the league in G+-/60. The Wings rank 31st and the Preds 30th. In xG/60 we see Detroit -7.01 and Nashville -6.85. Detroit is really playing good hockey this month, but upon closer look all the success has been at home. The Red Wings have only played two road games all month, losing both by a combined score of 9-3. Detroit is only 3-11 on the road all season. Nashville returns home after eight straight games on the road. While that doesn’t provide us with a positive scheduling spot, keep in mind it will be a major step down in opposition. The Preds went to Carolina for two, Tampa Bay for two, Florida for two and Dallas for a single game. Must have spot for the host here. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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03-23-21 | Devils +142 v. Flyers | 4-3 | Win | 142 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
57 New Jersey at Philadelphia In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Jersey ranks 20th and Philadelphia 28th. In xG/60 the Devils are -0.15 and the Flyers -0.10. Virtually equal. On the Power Play we find in G+-/60 the Devils rank 28th and the Flyers 20th. In xG/60 New Jersey is +3.67 and Philadelphia +5.37. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 these are two of the weakest teams in the league. The Devils rank 29th and the Flyers 27th. In xG/60 New Jersey is -7.06 and the Flyers -6.96. The Devils had a five game home stand and then played at Pittsburgh on Sunday. They upset the Penguins 2-1 in an afternoon overtime contest. After this game they travel to Washington and Boston, so this is a must win game for the visitor. Philadelphia is 1-4 at home this month, including a 2-1 overtime loss to the Islanders yesterday. They are 2-7 at home since the beginning of February. No way we want any part of this disappointing team in the favorites role. Give us the Devils at a nice plus price. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-22-21 | Kings v. Sharks -123 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
56 Los Angeles at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 19th and the Sharks 24th. In xG/60 we find the Kings -0.45 and San Jose -0.08. A clear advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Los Angeles ranks 5th and San Jose 20th. In xG/60 we see the Kings +6.77 and the Sharks +6.46. Much closer than the actual goals suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Kings rank 7th and the Sharks rank 19th. In xG/60 LA is -6.19 and San Jose -5.74. Once again the Sharks are the team that suggests positive regression. The Kings just played a near perfect game in knocking off the Golden Knights yesterday. Now after being home since the 15th, they have to take to the road. San Jose has been home since the 18th, and are coming off back to back home losses to St Louis. With the extra day to prepare we like the Sharks tonight. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-22-21 | Hurricanes -154 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 21st. In xG/60 we find Carolina +0.31 and Columbus -0.42. A sizable edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.45 and the Jackets +3.73, a huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Canes are ranked 4th and the Jackets 21st. In xG/60 Carolina is -4.36 and Columbus -5.27. It’s clear Carolina is the better team here, but also the more motivated after losing three straight including two hosting these Jackets. With Tampa Bay on Saturday, it’s imperative Carolina gets those two games back in Columbus. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Gonzaga | 71-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
817 Oklahoma & Gonzaga The Sooners enter with a 16-10 record, but the advanced stats say they should have gone 18-8 based on shots taken vs their schedule. Oklahoma has a veteran coach in Lon Kruger that has taken multiple teams to the Big Dance. The Sooners rank 17th in the country in offensive turnover percentage. And 12th in the nation keeping the opposition off the foul line. Gonzaga has only been outplayed twice on the season, and yet remain undefeated. This seems to be a team of destiny if you ask most of the experts. And the Zags haven’t given much reason to doubt them. The pros have been backing them as well as the amateurs. They enter this contest off a 43 point victory in the opening round. But as good as Gonzaga is this season, there is no way they deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. After watching Illinois, Ohio State, Texas and West Virginia go down earlier. How can anyone run out to lay this type of number. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts +9 v. Florida | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
807 Oral Roberts & Florida Paul Mills’ club doesn’t have the impressive record at 17-10, but they are peaking at the right time. Winners of six straight games after knocking off the over seeded Buckeyes. This team played a tough non-conference slate, facing the likes on Big Dance entrants Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Florida comes in at 15-9 but the advanced stats show this to be a 12-12 team based on shot quality metrics. It was very fortunate to get the overtime victory over Virginia Tech. The Gators have dropped three of five heading into this contest, with the wins being the overtime victory over the Hokies and an unimpressive six point win over Vanderbilt. We are fading this overrated Gator bunch. PLAY ORAL ROBERTS |
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
805 Texas Tech & Arkansas This should be one of the best games of the season if you love defense. Although the Red Raiders only have an 18-10 record on the season, all the losses were to Top 32 opposition. Every team Texas Tech lost to is still alive in the final 32, except Texas who beat the Red Raiders by a single point. Arkansas has the gaudy 23-6 record, but the advanced stats show this as more of an 19-10 team. Even in the 85-68 win over Colgate, it took an 11 of 31 two point shooting night from the underdog to get the victory. The Red Raiders have a pedigree in the Big Dance, with one of the best coaches in the country. There is a reason they are favored here. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
789 Abilene Christian & Texas Really like this Wildcats team who held their own at Texas Tech and Arkansas. They lead college hoops in forcing turnovers, and rank 11th in defensive efficiency field goal percentage. This is also a club that ranks 21st in the country in offensive field goal percentage. Texas is a very good team but ranks 291st in the country in letting the opposition get to the line. Entering here off five straight victories, we expect the Longhorns to take this opponent for granted. We’ve already seen Texas no show plenty of times this season. PLAY ABILENE CHRISTIAN |
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03-20-21 | Jets +124 v. Oilers | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
27 Winnipeg at Edmonton In 5x5 action G+-/60 the Jets rank 17th and the Oilers are 13th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -0.32 and Edmonton +0.08. Both teams have done well on the Power Play with Winnipeg ranking 8th and Edmonton 4th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Jets are +5.67 and the Oilers +8.08. A strong advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed Winnipeg ranks 16th and Edmonton 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Jets are -6.62 and the Oilers -7.91. A strong advantage to the visitor. 6-2 current run for the Oilers, as both teams are playing its third game in four days. While the numbers say Edmonton should take this one, the line is just too high to ignore the quality visitor. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -184 | 3-2 | Loss | -184 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
18 Columbus at Carolina In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blue Jackets rank 21st and the Hurricanes 11th. In xG/60 we see Columbus -0.38 and Carolina +0.28. A sizable edge for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 26th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 Columbus is +3.73 and Carolina +6.56. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we see Columbus with a 22nd rank and Carolina 5th. In xG/60 it’s -5.36 for the Jackets and -4.37 for the Hurricanes. Columbus has dropped seven straight games in the second of a two game series. With Carolina off back to back losses, look for a supreme effort on Saturday. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-20-21 | Blackhawks +210 v. Lightning | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
9 Chicago at Tampa Bay In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blackhawks rank 23rd and the Lightning 3rd. In xG/60 we see Chicago at -0.30 and Tampa Bay +0.28. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 7th and the Lightning 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 Chicago is +5.30 and Tampa Bay is +6.51. No more pronounced that just looking at the rating. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 28th and Tampa Bay is 6th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -5.93 and the Lightning -4.14. Another nice edge for the host. Chicago has dropped three straight on this road trip against two of the best in the central. After playing Dallas twice, Chicago five times, Detroit twice and Nashville twice, the Bolts host Florida tomorrow. We can see Tampa Bay taking this game for granted, it’s a terrible spot for the host. Worth a shot on the Blackhawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-20-21 | Penguins -148 v. Devils | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
3 Pittsburgh at New Jersey In 5x5 in G+-/60 the Penguins rank 12th and the Devils 20th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -0.13 and New Jersey -0.17. Looking at the Power Play success we see the Penguins ranking 22nd and the Devils 27th. In xG/60 we see Pittsburgh +5.10 and New Jersey +3.73. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Neither team has done well on the Penalty Kill in G+-/60. Pittsburgh is -5.52 in xG/60 and Jersey is -7.29. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Pittsburgh is in the midst of five games against Jersey and Buffalo. After losing on Thursday 3-2, we expect the Penguins to come out fired up on Saturday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings +149 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
76 Vegas at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 Vegas ranks 6th and LA 19th. In xG/60 the Knights are +0.11 and the Kings -0.41. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 21st and the Kings 6th. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.80 and Los Angeles is +6.78. So the Knights are due for some positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 both teams have fared well with the Knights ranking 7th and the Kings 10th. In xG/60 we find Vegas at -5.96 and Los Angeles -6.10. Vegas has won four straight games since losing back to back contests to the Wild. After this two game series they face St Louis and Colorado twice, three games more important than beating the Kings. After coming back on Wednesday to beat the Sharks in a physical battle, you can see the visitor overlooking Los Angeles here. This line is simply too high not to take a chance on the Kings. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-19-21 | Liberty +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 60-69 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
747 Liberty & Oklahoma State Liberty is 23-5 on the season, but looking at advanced stats we find this to be more of a 25-3 squad. A terrific shooting team that ranks 11th in three point percentage, 9th in two point percentage and 21st at the free throw line. This is a live dog based on its ability to put the ball in the basket. Oklahoma State finished the season on an eight and two run. But in looking at the advanced stats this was a 20-8 team that only played like a 15-13 squad. The Cowboys were outplayed the final eight games when looking at shot selection and season to date data. A team that has won on national television in exciting finishes. The public loves this overrated squad, and that means we want to fade them. Give us the points with Liberty, or give us death! Well, maybe just give us the points and we will leave it at that. PLAY LIBERTY |
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03-19-21 | Utah State v. Texas Tech -4 | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
734 Utah State & Texas Tech The Aggies were a surprise entrant into the dance after losing to San Diego State in the Mountain West Tourney. The Only Top 50 opponent they beat all season was taking two games at home over the same Aztecs. On the season they lost to #129 South Dakota State and #164 UNLV. Other than San Diego State the Mountain West hasn’t fared well in the Big Dance. Texas Tech finished the season losing five of eight games. But the losses came against Texas by a point, Oklahoma State in overtime, Kansas and West Virginia. The Red Raiders faced 15 Top 50 teams this season. Coming off a loss to Texas in Tournament Play, in a game the advanced stats showed they should have won, we will back the team from the higher ranked conference. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-19-21 | Drexel +23 v. Illinois | 49-78 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
741 Drexel & Illinois The Dragons went 12-7 this season and won the Colonial Tournament. Looking at the advanced stats our numbers show they should have been a 15-5 squad. The best team they played all season was the opener in an 83-74 loss at Pittsburgh. But the reason we prefer Drexel here is more of a fade of Illinois. Illinois is on a 15-1 run and just beat Ohio State in overtime, Iowa, Rutgers, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. All teams playing in the Big Dance. This has been a brutal stretch of games for the Illini, and they are fat and happy coming into the tournament. This will be the weakest team they have played since the first two games of the season. Illinois really looked impressive to end the year and everyone who doesn’t usually follow college hoops is in love with this team. This is a major soft spot for Illinois who must quickly recuperate and take on a tougher team on Sunday. Look for the bench to get plenty of playing time for this overpriced favorite. PLAY DREXEL |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
717 UCLA & Michigan State The Bruins have dropped four straight games heading into this tournament contest. But in looking at the advanced stats the Bruins should have won three of those four games, if they had shot their season averages from those specific points on the floor. Not many have been excited by the PAC 12 this year, which is another reason why UCLA is being discounted here. Michigan State was just 5-10 straight up against teams playing in the Big Dance. Only one of those victories came by more than nine points, and that came all the way back on January 5th against Rutgers at home. The Spartans finished the season winning five of eight games, but the advanced stats say they should have only won twice. Many will remember Michigan State’s success in the tournament, but this is by far the worst Spartan team in recent memory. PLAY UCLA |
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03-18-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks +126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 126 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
66 Arizona at Anaheim In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Arizona ranking 27th and Anaheim at 29th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are -0.28 and the Ducks -0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 24th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.09 and the Ducks +5.50. So Anaheim is due for some positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 9th and the Ducks 25th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -8.32 and Anaheim -6.15. Once again the host is in for a large regression. It’s rare to find a significant road favorite with these terrible advanced stats. Time to step out with a Best Bet on the host. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky +2 v. St. Mary's | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 57 h 33 m | Show | |
707 Western Kentucky & St Marys Prefer the Hilltoppers here who returned five starters for this senior laden team. Western is 20-7 on the season with overtime losses to Charlotte and North Texas. They also lost to quality opponents West Virginia, Louisville, Louisiana Tech and Houston. This is a 21 win team by the advanced metrics. The Hilltoppers are also 9th in the country in free throw percentage which is extremely important in a tightly lined game. St Marys just isn’t the same level as in past seasons. Especially offensively where they rank 328th in the nation in three point shooting percentage. That’s just not like a traditional Randy Bennett coached team. The Gaels have just two wins over top 100 opposition, beating Colorado State and splitting with Pepperdine. Wrong team favored on Wednesday. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-17-21 | Canucks v. Senators +130 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
36 Vancouver at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 the ranking show Vancouver 24th and Ottawa 30th. In xG/60 we see the Canucks at -0.46 and the Senators -0.31. So Ottawa is better than the year to date numbers show. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Canucks rank 23rd and the Senators rank 27th. In xG/60 Vancouver is +5.72 and Ottawa is +5.47. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we see Vancouver ranking 15th and Ottawa 25th. In xG/60 the Canucks are -7.06 and the Senators are -6.01. A nice advantage for the host. Ottawa is a very inconsistent team. Getting blown out or winning in close fashion. Their numbers are worse because of this. But we are only looking for the winner here, they don’t have to win by a margin. Because of that there is plenty of value on the home underdog. PLAY OTTAWA |
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03-16-21 | Islanders -102 v. Capitals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
25 NY Islanders at Washington Looking to back the red hot Islanders in this one. Washington played last night at Buffalo, so its the second of a back to back situation. But more importantly Washington is winning lately but against some of the lesser teams in the division, Buffalo, New Jersey and Philadelphia. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Islanders rank 3rd and the Capitals 7th. In xG/60 we find NY at +0.51 and Washington at +0.10. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 17th and the Capitals 11th. Looking at xG/60 NY is +6.87 and Washington +6.35. So positive regression is on the side of the visitor. Looking at the Penalty Kill we see the Islanders 7th and the Capitals 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 NY is -5.48 and Washington -5.22. Slightly better for the host. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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03-15-21 | Canadiens v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
13 Montreal at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal ranking 1st and Winnipeg 15th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +0.56 and the Jets -0.34. So a substantial advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play the Canadiens rank 12th and the Jets 10th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Montreal is +5.88, and Winnipeg +5.66. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 10th and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 we find the Canadiens -6.07, and the Jets -6.23. The line on this game is about where we made it, but the total has our interest. This Montreal team is the best in the league scoring 5x5. Both teams have done well offensively, with neither very proficient on the penalty kill. Let’s look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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03-15-21 | Flyers v. Rangers +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
8 Philadelphia at NY Rangers In 5x5 in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 20th and the Rangers 16th. In xG/60 we find the Flyers at -0.06 and the Rangers at +0.16. On the Power Play Philadelphia ranks 16th in G+-/60, and NY 26th. In xG/60 the Flyers are +5.55 and the Rangers +6.29. So there is some positive regression coming for the host. On the Penalty Kill the Flyers rank 28th and the Rangers 4th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we see Philadelphia -7.06 and NY -5.38. All positive numbers for the host, and yet this game is lines as a coin flip. We are stepping out with a strong play on the Rangers here. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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03-14-21 | Maple Leafs -241 v. Senators | 3-4 | Loss | -241 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
63 Toronto at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto ranks 7th and Ottawa 31st. In xG/60 the Leafs are +0.37 and the Sens -0.33. Basically a .7 goal advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play we find Toronto ranking 2nd and Ottawa 27th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.91, and the Senators +5.36. A huge advantage for Toronto. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 24th and the Sens 27th. In xG/60 Toronto is -4.66 and Ottawa -6.09. A much larger advantage than the actual rankings show. So we expect positive regression for the Maple Leafs. All things considered Toronto is far superior is basically every situation. Hard to say a road favorite is underrated in this price range, but in this instance it is. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-14-21 | Islanders v. Devils +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
60 NY Islanders at New Jersey In 5x5 G+-/60 NY ranks 3rd and NJ 21st. In xG/60 we find the Islanders +0.49 and the Devils -0.12. Looking at the Power Play in G+-/60 we see the Islanders at 15th and the Devils ranking 29th. In xG/60 NY is +6.50 and NJ +3.71. A strong advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill the Islanders rank 3rd and the Devils 29th in G+-/60. Looking at the advanced stats NY is -5.43 and Jersey is -7.20. The Islanders have been hot, but they have been feasting on the bottom teams in the division. After this game the schedule gets must tougher for the visitor. While its clear New Jersey doesn’t have the talent of the Islanders, this team has been losing a lot of one goal games to elite teams. The spot favors the host and we think this game goes down to the wire. Let’s take the Devils +1 1/2 here to cash this ticket. PLAY NEW JERSEY +1 1/2 |