Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-20 | Royals +180 v. Indians | Top | 3-0 | Win | 180 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
903 Kansas City at Cleveland Danny Duffy has pitched very well on the road this year. His last four road starts graded out with game scores of 46, 64, 64 and 52. Considering that those four games were against the White Sox, Twins, Cubs and Tigers is even more impressive. When grading by wRC+ the Sox are 150 and the Tigers are 132, the top two teams in baseball vs lefties. And we know how good the Cubs and Twins are offensively. Carlos Carrasco is often heavily bet because of his name, but his average game score in his last seven starts is 54. Good but not overly impressive. In fact, his last five starts against the Tigers graded out at 48. The Indians deserve to be favored today but this line is much too high. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-08-20 | Angels -123 v. Rangers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
971 Los Angeles Angels at Texas Andrew Heaney faced the Rangers a month ago and was hit hard resulting in a 29 game score. But his previous four starts against Texas were game scores of 64, 62, 84 and 69. On the season Texas is 2nd last in baseball vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. The Rangers enter this game dropping 8 of 9 overall. Lance Lynn was hoping to be traded at the deadline, but that didn’t happen. His first start after that disappointment was his worst start of the season, a 37 game score against the Astros. With Texas just playing out the string and bringing up your players for an audition for the future, we can’t see Lynn overly excited to bring his “A” game from here on out. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ vs righties, good for fifth best in baseball. This number has been bought up by the wise guys overnight, but still has plenty of value. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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09-07-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
914 Kansas City at Cleveland Runs should be very hard to come by on Monday as we really like this pitching matchup. Keller has been outstanding for the Royals this year and yet he remains under the radar. His average game score on the season is 60.2, and he had a 66 last time out vs the Indians. Plesac has even been more impressive when he isn’t our at the Chicago bars. His game scores this season have been 87, 62, 68, and 66. An average of 70.75, league average is 50. Neither team hits righties very well with the Royals coming in at 84, and the Tribe at 91. League average is 100. Throw in the fact that the Royals may be without Soler again and we really find it hard for either of these two teams to score. PLAY UNDER |
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09-07-20 | Rays +110 v. Nationals | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
911 Tampa Bay at Washington The Nationals return home off a long road trip in which it won just 2 of 10 games. Washington is only 6-13 on the season at home. The Nationals wRC+ against righties is 94, 6% below league average. Tampa Bay has a 110 wRC+ vs righties and are 14-7 on the season on the road. Morton and Scherzer come out virtually equal on the mound, and we prefer the Rays bullpen in this matchup. Better team with a plus price than has proven themselves on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-06-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -119 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
976 Texas at Seattle Jordan Lyles has been a train wreck this season. His five starts have resulted in game scores of 10, 23, 39, 47 and 36. Two of those starts came against Seattle. The Mariners have a 102 wRC+ vs righties, and have won 7 of its last 10 games overall. Justin Dunn has been a league average pitcher this season, despite allowing five homers in his 27 innings of work. Texas against righties have a wRC+ of 62, 38% worse than league average. The Rangers have lost 8 of 10 games as of late, scoring four runs or less 8 of those 10 games. With a 7-15 record vs right-handed pitchers, and a 4-15 record on the road, we will lay it with the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-06-20 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
957 Washington at Atlanta The numbers say the Nationals are only 5-21 on the season vs righties. But that’s not the entire picture, as they have a wRC+ of 96, just 4% below the MLB average. Josh Tomlin has done a nice job in the Braves bullpen. But because of injuries and lack of performance he’s now in the starting rotation. In his three starts this season his game scores have been 38, 36 and 43. The past three seasons he has pitched 172.1 innings and has allowed 43 homers! He gave up the long ball on a regular basis when in Cleveland also. Patrick Corbin in his last five starts vs Atlanta has an average game score of 56. League average is 50. He allows less than one homer per game the past three seasons. The Braves have a wRC+ of 78 against lefties. Nice price here with the reigning champions. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
926 Texas at Seattle The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-04-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -126 | 6-5 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
980 Arizona at San Francisco The Diamondbacks are 1-9 on the season vs lefties with a wRC+ of 64, tied for worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is facing Arizona for the third time in the last two weeks. In his last outing against this squad he struggled badly with an 18 game score. We expect the young southpaw to make the needed adjustments against this Arizona team who has dropped 9 of its last 10 games overall. Taylor Clark looked good against the Giants last time out with a 67 game score. But his previous three games against San Francisco resulted in game scores of 29, 22 and 54. With the Giants having a 106 wRC+ vs righties, also with the Diamondbacks being 5-15 away from home. We have plenty of value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-03-20 | White Sox -134 v. Royals | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
913 Chicago WS at Kansas City Looking to jump on this Sox lineup once again when facing a lefty. Now 11-0 on the season with a league leading wRC+ of 157. A full 23% higher than the next best team. Dylan Cease has road game scores of 58, 51 and 57 his last three away starts. This is his third start against the Royals this year with game scores of 57 and 56. Normally you would look for some type of letdown after facing Minnesota, but the Sox dropped those last two meetings. So therefore we can probably ignore the letdown here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-02-20 | Tigers +154 v. Brewers | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
967 Detroit at Milwaukee We cashed big on the Tigers yesterday, and yet for the second straight game the Brewers are taking money. Spencer Turnbull should be a major money maker this year after 6.06 and 4.61 ERA’s the past two seasons. What we love about the Tigers righty is that he doesn’t give up the long ball. The last three seasons he has permitted just 15 home runs in 195 innings. The Tigers are 12-13 vs righties with a wRC+ of 94, while the Brewers are 10-14 with a wRC+ of 70. Detroit is 8-6 on the road, while Milwaukee is 7-10 at home. Adrian Houser got out of the gate fast this season, but has faltered as of late. Game scores of 42, 47, 45 and 30. Not ideal when the league average is 50. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-02-20 | Cardinals +141 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
953 St Louis at Cincinnati Not only did the Cardinals pound the Reds last night 16-2, but they have dominated this series 29-15 the past three years. Tyler Mahle has an average game score of 43 the last five meetings with St Louis. The Cards are 13-11 vs righties with a wRC+ of 109. The Reds are 10-17 vs righties with a wRC+ of 93. Cincinnati is also just 7-11 at home. The Reds bullpen used five pitchers last night, each throwing 19 pitches or more. That included key late inning relievers like Bradley, Thornburg, Jones and Iglesias. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-02-20 | Heat +6 v. Bucks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
729 Miami and Milwaukee Money is pouring in on the Bucks as for the second straight series Milwaukee is off an opening game loss. But this series isn’t the one sided kind that we saw earlier. Miami plays Milwaukee very well, and the matchups favor the underdog. Now that we are getting more points than game one, we will step out with this live underdog. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-02-20 | Giants +128 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
951 San Francisco at Colorado Kyle Freeland has a 46 average game score against the Giants the last five meetings. His last three games overall at home produced game scores of 27, 56 and 46. The only quality start was against Arizona who is second worst in baseball vs left-handers. The Giants have a 119 wRC+ against lefties. Colorado is 9-16 vs righties with a wRC+ of 75, fourth worst in the majors. Here are the pitch counts from the Colorado bullpen yesterday, 50, 32, 27 and 23. Want no part of these free falling Rockies who are just 8-12 at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-01-20 | Tigers +180 v. Brewers | 12-1 | Win | 180 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at Milwaukee Both starting pitchers have really struggled to open the season. Fulmer coming off injury, and Lindblom returning from South Korea. Detroit will likely go to the bullpen first as Fulmer’s high pitch count has been 63. But that’s probably a good thing considering the struggles of these starters. Detroit has a better record against righties, 11-13 to 10-13. The wRC+ numbers show Detroit at 89, and Milwaukee at 70. So we get the better hitting team vs righties catching a huge plus payoff. Add in the fact that the Tigers are 7-6 on the road and Brewers 7-9 at home. This line makes no sense whatsoever. It’s all based on name recognition and not 2020 reality. We simply cannot pass up this overlay. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-31-20 | Padres +105 v. Rockies | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
969 San Diego at Colorado Neither starter has gotten off to the starts they had planned. Both come in off back to back poor performances. The Padres are 16-9 vs righties on the season with a wRC+ of 125, second best in baseball. Colorado against righties are 9-14 with a 79 wRC+. San Diego is playing the much better ball as of late, and management is doing everything it can to upgrade this roster. Nice price with the better team. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-31-20 | Mariners +136 v. Angels | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Seattle at LA Angels Nice advantages all around for the Mariners here. Seattle comes in with a 100 wRC+ against righties, while the Angels are just an 82 wRC+ against lefties. Marco Gonzales has faced LA twice this year with game scores of 68 and 66. Jaime Barria is making his first start of the season, after posting a 6.42 ERA in 2019. He’s very prone to the long ball, allowing 41 homers in just 221.1 innings of work the past three seasons. Over the last month Seattle is just 12-18, while the Angels are only 10-20. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-30-20 | Clippers -10.5 v. Mavs | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
712 LA Clippers and Dallas Based on how this series has played out this line is a bit inflated. None of the other games went off nearly this high, and we have the Mavericks off an embarrassing 154-111 blowout loss. Luka Doncic has an extra five days to rest his injured ankle, and the coach said he has no minute limitations. This line is an obvious overreaction to the previous game, and as we have seen so far embarrassed teams come out fighting. PLAY DALLAS |
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08-29-20 | Mariners +160 v. Angels | 3-16 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
979 Seattle at LA Angels Came up a bit short with our big plus money play on the Mariners last night. But we are finding value once against with this Seattle club. Over the past three seasons Seattle has a 23-22 record in this series. Dylan Bundy got off to a great start for the Angels but has faded as of late with 37 and 48 game scores. He is very prone to the long ball allowing 74 homers in just 380.2 innings of work. Hard to lay this number with a guy allowing two home runs per nine innings. Justus Sheffield was highly touted and his last three starts show why. Game scores of 71, 57 and 60 show he is finally living up to expectations. On the season the Angels have a 73 wRC+ vs lefties, 27% worse than league average. The Mariners are 102 vs right-handers. Great price with the visitor tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-29-20 | Pirates +175 v. Brewers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
969 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Can’t understand why this line is so high. Over the last three years the Brewers have a 25-20 record in this series. On the season Milwaukee is just 5-8 at home. Against right-handed starters Milwaukee is third worst in baseball with a wRC+ of 66, 34% worse than an average MLB squad. Pittsburgh on the other hand has a 108 wRC+ vs lefties. We can see the host being a slight favorite here, but this line is completely overblown. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-29-20 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Over The last five games in this series have seen combined scores of 11, 9, 11, 13 and 21. Against right-handed starters the Braves have a wRC+ of 117, while the Phillies are 108. The two starters just faced off against each other six days ago, and the game scores were 36 and 47. Tomlin has a history of allowing home runs in bunches. The last three seasons he has permitted 42 homers in just 168 innings. Eflin has allowed 46 homers in just 310.2 innings. We look for both offenses to have success today. PLAY OVER |
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08-28-20 | Mariners +180 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
927 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels While Andrew Heaney has pitched well against the Mariners this year , with game scores of 54 and 58. It will be the third time in a month the Mariners have seen the lefty. Heaney has only allowed two home runs this year and yet his ERA is still 5.52. The last three seasons he has given up 49 long balls in only 304.2 innings. Margevicius has been solid since coming over to Seattle with game scores of 56, 59 and 46. The Mariners are playing good ball right now having won 6 of 8 as of late. Looking at wRC+ vs lefties this season Seattle is at 70 and the Angels 71. No way should this line be anywhere near this high. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-28-20 | Royals v. White Sox -138 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
916 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox Danny Duffy has been very good this year, and has a nice 54 average game score against the White Sox his last five starts in this series. But the Royals are only 6-12 on the road and 10-16 vs right-handed starters. The Sox are a perfect 8-0 on the season vs lefties, with an unheard of wRC+ of 170. That’s 33% higher than the second ranked team in the league vs left-handed starters. The Sox are hot having won 9 of its last 10 games. Cheap number at home vs a lefty pitcher. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-27-20 | Pirates +144 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 144 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
973 Pittsburgh at St Louis While the Pirates are 0-4 on the season vs lefty starters, they actually have hit southpaws well. With a wRC+ of 125 on the year, ranking eighth in the majors. Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 2.84 ERA despite allowing four home runs in 19 innings of work. His game scores in 2020 are 63, 52 and 57. The two teams Kim has faced struggle vs lefties. Cincinnati has a 93 wRC+ and the Cubs are just an 85 wRC+. This will actually be the best offense he has faced this year believe it or not. Solid value on the dog this afternoon. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-25-20 | Angels v. Astros -136 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
974 LA Angels at Houston The Astros have dominated this series winning 67% of the last 42 meetings, including 3 of 4 this year. Jose Suarez has an average game score of 34 his last seven starts. Well short of the league average of 50. in 82.1 innings of MLB work he has allowed 24 home runs! Cristian Javier has been impressive in his rookie season, with a 55 average game score. The Angels are 4-12 on the road and 5-16 vs right-handed starters. Houston is 7-5 vs lefties with a wRC+ of 131, 31% better than league average. The Astros are 11-4 at home. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-24-20 | Cubs -123 v. Tigers | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
905 Chicago Cubs at Detroit In our opinion too much credit is being given to the Tigers starter. Casey Mize has a very bright future, but young hurlers tend to struggle out of the gate. In his debut he only went 4.1 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. The talent is there but it’s very rare for rookie pitchers to enter the league fully formed. Alec Mills struggled last time out against the Cardinals. But his game scores before that start were 61, 72 and 52. The Cubs are 12-8 vs righties on the season, while the Tigers are 7-12 in that same category. Chicago is 5-2 on the road while Detroit is 4-9 at home. This Tiger pitching staff has allowed 67 runs its last 10 games. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
747 Denver and Utah The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight. PLAY DENVER |
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08-22-20 | Angels v. A's -135 | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
904 LA Angels at Oakland Had the A’s last night and they led wire to wire. No reason to switch sides today as the Angels are the most overrated team in the league. This will be the third time each of these starters has faced the opposition this year. Neither pitched extremely well with Bassitt posting game scores of 56 and 47, and Canning 49 and 36. So Bassitt has had the better recent success against this opponent. The Angels are 4-15 vs right-handed starters and 3-10 on the road. Oakland is 12-8 vs righties and 12-3 playing here. The Angels are 8-19 on the season while the A’s are 19-8. This is a very cheap number. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +107 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Oakland Going against the early line movement in this one as we get the clearly better team in the home dog roll. Sure Andrew Heaney has had very good success against this A’s squad, with an average game score of 62 his last five meetings. He’s fared much better against todays opponent that Mike Tiers who has a 42 average game score against the Angels. That’s a clear starting pitcher edge for Los Angeles. But looking much deeper we see that Heaney has a 4.74 ERA this season despite only allowing a single home run in 24.2 innings. Fiers on the other hand has a 5.96 ERA but has allowed 7 hame runs in just 25.2 innings. The previous two seasons the Angels lefty allowed 47 homers in 275.1 innings of work. These are two pitchers about to hit major regression. The road favorite Angels are just 4-14 vs right-handed starters and 3-9 this year on the road. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 vs lefties and 11-3 overall in this ballpark. The last season plus Oakland has a 17-9 record in this series. Too much value in this one to not want a piece of the home dog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-20-20 | Angels v. Giants -112 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at San Francisco Kevin Gausman has always had the talent, but he’s had a hard time putting it all together. But this year he has started with game scores of 47, 50, 69 and 55. More impressive is that those games were hosting the Padres, at Colorado, at the LA Dodgers and hosting Oakland. Some pretty good hitting teams in tough parks. The Angels are only 4-13 on the season vs right-handed starters, and 3-8 overall on the road. The Giants are 5-5 vs lefties compared to 5-11 vs righties. The Angels are sending out Jose Suarez who has an average game score his last seven starts of 36. This is his first start of 2020. Nice price to go against an overrated Angels squad. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +6.5 v. Lakers | 88-111 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
717 Portland and LA Lakers Since entering the bubble the Trailblazers have yet to lose any of their ten games by more than five points. They have serious matchup edges over the Lakers which will continue throughout this series. LA didn’t play a meaningful game in Orlando, and it showed in game one. The Lakers desperately need someone to distribute the ball, as this team can’t buy an easy basket. The last game closed at 6.5 and this one opened at 5.5 and is slowly rising. After watching game one you can’t seriously expect a major improvement from the favorite. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY PORTLAND |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees +113 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
912 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees As much as the public seems to like Blake Snell, his last five starts against the Yanks have averaged a 52 game score. Just slightly better than the league average game score which is 50. Tanaka on the other hand has simply owned the Rays with an average game score of 70 his last five starts against them. When looking at current form for the last seven starts overall, Snell is at 54 while Tanaka is at 51. From an offensive standpoint the Rays have a slight edge in wRC+ at 999 to 950. Rare chance to get the Yankees at home at an underdog price. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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08-17-20 | Nationals v. Braves -145 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
956 Washington at Atlanta Been very impressed with Toussaint thus far with a 23 to 5 SO to BB ratio on only 17.1 innings of work. That includes his worst start last time out at the NY Yankees. He was highly thought of as a prospect, and it’s starting to look like that is translating at the Major League level. Anibal Sanchez just hasn’t been the same this year. He had a huge return to form a couple years ago but right now he is struggling mightily. His three starts in 2020 have game scores of 45, 29 and 26. Washington is only 2-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. This is a very fair line on the Braves tonight. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-16-20 | Golden Knights -185 v. Blackhawks | 1-3 | Loss | -185 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
047 Vegas and Chicago The Blackhawks gave everything it had yesterday and still came up short. Kane even played on multiple lines but it didn’t matter. Now Chicago has to win four straight over the only undefeated team in the playoffs. The Blackhawks were not a playoff caliber team this season and were lucky to be involved in the postseason at all. These players haven’t been outside the bubble in quite some time. Do you really think you will get a full effort out of Chicago here? Not against a Vegas team on a mission, with the best pair of goalies in the league. Not often we will lay this type of number, but it’s warranted here. PLAY VEGAS |
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08-15-20 | Nationals v. Orioles +165 | 3-7 | Win | 165 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
964 Washington at Baltimore Surprisingly the Orioles have won 4 of the 6 meetings the past two seasons. This is what we call a one way rivalry, as the O’s lost part of its fanbase when the Nationals arrived. The Nationals are just 2-8 on the season facing right-handed starters. Baltimore is 2-1 vs lefties and their lineup shows a much better wRC+ vs lefties. The Orioles have six players that have a double digit increase in wRC+ against lefties. Plenty of value on the home dog on Saturday. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +142 | 1-5 | Win | 142 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
927 San Diego at Arizona The Diamondbacks have won 25 of the last 45 meetings, and they are catching the Padres off a huge four game series with the Dodgers. Kelly has an average game score of 56 his last five starts against the Padres. Lamet on the other hand is at 47 in his four career Arizona starts. When looking at the last seven overall starts by both hurlers, we see both with an average game score of 61. Both teams are 8-7 on the season vs righties. When comparing projected lineups we see San Diego with a 913 wRC+ and the Diamondbacks with a similar 921 wRC+. No way the host should be this size underdog here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-14-20 | Pirates +182 v. Reds | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
911 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati The Pirates were good to us yesterday, let’s look for a repeat performance. Pittsburgh is now 27-12 in this series. The last five starts between these two shows Kuhl with a 56 average game score, while Gray is at 49. Still don’t trust the Reds in this price range with a 3-10 record against right-handed starters. Similar to yesterday the Reds have a slight offensive edge, but not nearly enough to justify this price. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-13-20 | Pirates +163 v. Reds | Top | 9-6 | Win | 163 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
959 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Believe it or not but the Pirates have owned Cincinnati the past few years. Now 26-12 vs the Reds. And Trevor Williams has posted an average game score of 63 his last five starts vs Cincinnati. The Reds are also 3-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. We rate the Reds starter one tier better. Offensively these lineups are an 898 wRC+ for the Pirates and 932 for the Reds. Not nearly enough edges to support a line of this size. Plenty of value on the Pirates on Thursday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-12-20 | Rays -149 v. Red Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
925 Tampa Bay at Boston The Rays are 15-8 the past two seasons against the Sox. Snell has an average game score of 64 vs Boston. His last seven starts average a 55 game score overall. He’s been on a pitch count to start the season, but we love this Tampa Bay bullpen. The Rays are 8-3 against righty starters while Boston is just 3-5 vs southpaws. Good number to fade an overrated Rex Sox squad. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Rockies | 7-8 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
971 Arizona at Colorado Love the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks who we rate two tiers higher than the inconsistent Freeland. Offensively this projected lineup shows a 955 wRC+ for the visitor, with an 836 wRC+ for the host. We don’t want to fade the Rockies on a regular basis vs southpaws, but this is a weak lineup against righties. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-11-20 | White Sox v. Tigers +105 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
962 Chicago White Sox at Detroit Like the two tier starting pitcher edge for the Tigers, as Alexander has been terrific out of the pen this year. Offensively the Tigers come in at a wRC+ of 923, while the Sox are at only 856. Detroit matches up very well vs lefties, while that is a major weakness for Chicago. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-11-20 | Braves +124 v. Yankees | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
955 Atlanta at New York Yankees We are looking at a two tier starting pitching edge for the Yankees, although Toussaint looks to be back where he was as a prized recruit. Offensively the Braves have the slightly stronger lineup, 1081 wRC+ as opposed to 1037 for New York. The Yankees rake against lefties, but are overpriced vs right-handed starters. Nice value here on the road dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-10-20 | Mariners +171 v. Rangers | 10-2 | Win | 171 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
915 Seattle at Texas Neither of these teams were expected to do much this season. In fact, you could have had either team at 100 to 1 to win it all. The Rangers currently have a 1 1/2 game lead on the Mariners, which tells you neither team is playing much different than expected. Our numbers show Texas with a slight 853 to 836 wRC+ offensively. Although the Texas starter does rate about two tiers higher than the young Mariners starter. That said, no way this line should be this high with a very small if any home field advantage. Worth a shot in a game we have much closer to a tossup. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-09-20 | Rockies -149 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
971 Colorado at Seattle The Rockies have won 7 of the 8 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 5-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-9 vs righties. Colorado has a projected offensive wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. Big edge on the mound for the Rockies as well. Worked for us yesterday, no reason to buck the trend. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-08-20 | Rockies +107 v. Mariners | 5-0 | Win | 107 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
927 Colorado at Seattle The Rockies have won 6 of the 7 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 4-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-8 vs righties. The Seattle starter has faced the Rockies three times with game scores of 34, 35 and -4. We would rather back the major league debut of the Rockies starter. Colorado has a projected wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-07-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
958 Detroit at Pittsburgh Under You won’t find too many batting orders as bad as these two tonight. Detroit has a wRC+ of 772 vs righties, while the Pirates are at a wRC+ of 780 against lefties. Both starting lineups combine to feature just one hitter above the league average of 100. That player is sitting in the number eight hole for Pittsburgh, Stallings the catcher. Both starters have underperformed thus far giving us a nice opportunity against this medium range total. PLAY UNDER |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -121 v. Blackhawks | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
059 Edmonton and Chicago The Oilers completely dominated last game crushing Chicago in expected goals 5.58 to 2.30. And still Chicago walked away with the victory with two late goals. The Oilers were 4-2 this season after losing to a team it had a better expected goals against. Our rankings have Edmonton 12 places higher than these Black Hawks. Look for Edmonton to even the series. PLAY EDMONTON |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -160 v. Canadiens | 0-2 | Loss | -160 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
055 Pittsburgh and Montreal We cashed with the Penguins last time they were off a loss in this series. We expect the same outcome here. Pittsburgh won expected goals last game 4.24-3.30, but lost the game 4-3. Montreal has played over its head in this series, and we look for the better team to even this up. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-06-20 | Blue Jays +109 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
915 Toronto at Atlanta Showing the Blue Jays to have a tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as a 966 to 920 wRC+ in this contest. Home field advantage has been very low to non-existent so far in this shortened season. Catching plus money with the Jays is a solid bet. PLAY TORONTO |
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08-06-20 | Yankees v. Phillies +142 | 4-5 | Win | 142 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
926 New York Yankees at Philadelphia Cashed with the Phillies yesterday and see more of an edge today. We rate both starters in the same tier, although the Yankees have a very slight edge. From a hitting standpoint New York shows a powerful 1087 wRC+ but the Phillies are right behind with a 1000. Not a huge fan of this Philadelphia team coming into the season. But we can’t pass up the overlay in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-06-20 | Giants +151 v. Rockies | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
903 San Francisco at Colorado This line is just too high not to get a part of the Giants here. Both starters are graded in the same tier. From an offensive perspective the Giants are about league average with a 899 wRC+. The Rockies lineup is just slightly better at 954 wRC+. Colorado is being rated much too high in this betting marketplace. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-05-20 | Oilers -121 v. Blackhawks | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
011 Edmonton and Chicago The Oilers played a very physical game last time out with success. We look for more of that here. Edmonton is the faster team and has the best player on the ice with McDavid. Despite not being the official home team here, the Oilers are in familiar territory. We rate Edmonton 12 spots higher than Chicago, cheap price to lay here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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08-05-20 | Marlins +118 v. Orioles | 1-0 | Win | 118 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
985 Miami at Baltimore Wrong team favored here even with the slight pitching advantage for the O’s. This Baltimore offensive lineup is horrendous. Only one player in the lineup rates better than league average against righties, and that’s Dwight Smith at 103. As a whole Baltimore posts a 725 wRC+ while Miami comes in at 887 wRC+. Miami now has close to a league average offense after the Covid 19 situation. Look for the Marlins to come away with the road win. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-05-20 | Phillies +107 v. Yankees | 11-7 | Win | 107 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
981 Philadelphia at New York Yankees Money has poured in on the Phillies for good reason, this Yankees lineup isn’t great. In fact, the Phillies have a 990 wRC+ while the mighty Yankees are at 942 wRC+. We also rate the Phillies starter three tiers higher than the Yankees lefty starter. Not often we fade New York at home in this price range, but they shouldn’t be favored today. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-04-20 | Wild -108 v. Canucks | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
041 Minnesota and Vancouver We backed the Wild in the opening game in this series, and we see no reason not to do it again. Minnesota simply dominated that game with a 3-0 victory and an expected goal edge of 4.03-1.37. Vancouver is a young inexperienced team that faded as the year played out. The Wild are a slight favorite here and our numbers agree, we have Minnesota eight slots higher in our rankings. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-04-20 | Coyotes v. Predators -132 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
046 Arizona and Nashville Arizona won the opener 4-3 despite losing the expected goals battle 2.96-2.42. Our rankings show Nashville to be three slots better than Arizona. The pre-series line had Nashville a -135 favorite to advance. Now with their backs to the wall the line is very similar. Look for the Predators to even up this series. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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08-03-20 | Dodgers -130 v. Padres | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
969 LA Dodgers at San Diego Terrific pitching duel in the beautiful city on San Diego. We rate the Dodgers having a slight edge on the mound of one tier. From an offensive standpoint it’s all LA as we much prefer the Padres against lefties. Our wRC+ numbers have LA with a 1113 to 902 advantage. This series has been all Dodgers as LA has won 27 of the last 38 games played the past 2+ seasons. Not often that you get the best team in the National League with it’s best starter in this price range. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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08-03-20 | Giants +112 v. Rockies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
965 San Francisco at Colorado A pair of righties on the mound today and our numbers show the Giants with a two tier advantage in that area. While both lineups are rather weak, the Giants have a 871 to 860 wRC+ advantage. When looking at history between these clubs, San Francisco and Colorado have split the past 38 meetings. This boils down to a slight edge for the visitor catching a plus money price. Sign us up. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-03-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
028 Montreal and Pittsburgh The Canadiens pulled off the shocker in the opener as they out hustled Pittsburgh from the get go. But despite the 3-2 overtime victory, Pittsburgh dominated in expected goals. With the better defense and with their backs to the wall, we see Pittsburgh evening up this series on Monday. Pittsburgh has a distinct advantage at 5 on 5, so look for the Pens to play a much cleaner game. The special teams also favor the Pennsylvania squad, do power plays will be huge. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-02-20 | Wild +105 v. Canucks | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
013 Minnesota and Vancouver Minnesota is allowing the fewest high danger chances in the league. While there are concerns about the Wild goaltending, we rank this Minnesota team to be the most complete. Our numbers have the Wild eight spots higher than the Canucks who got out of the gate hot and faded. We will back what we feel is a team with more upside. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-02-20 | Pirates +170 v. Cubs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
915 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs Not impressed with either offense today against lefty starters. The Cubs are at 896 wRC+ while the Pirates come in at 789. Both under league average. Neither starter is impressive either as we rank the Cubs pitcher just one tier higher than the Pirates. So all our stats show the Cubs should be a favorite in the 140-150 range. Yet we are seeing the favorite posted in the 180 range. Plenty of room to sneak in a plus money win on the Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-01-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +139 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
972 LA Dodgers at Arizona The Diamondbacks rake against lefties with a 1034 wRC+. Just slightly less than the Dodgers vs righties at 1081 wRC+. So the hitting is close to equal. We rate both starters in the same tier, so that also rates pretty even. When looking at team history these squads are 20 and 20 the past forty meetings. With Arizona getting last at bats the value is clearly on the host. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-01-20 | Padres -103 v. Rockies | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
973 San Diego at Colorado Projected lineups favor the Padres 1054 wRC+ to 954 wRC+. Both teams hit lefties better than the league average of 900 wRC+. We rate the Padres starter one tier above the Rockies starting pitcher. San Diego should be favored. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-01-20 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
004 NY Rangers and Carolina While many feel the Rangers match up well with the Hurricanes, after winning all four regular season battles. We see it as New York was very fortunate, as Carolina had the higher expected goals in 3 of those four meetings. We are well aware of Carolina being shorthanded defensively, but our numbers clearly show this to be the much better team. The Hurricanes are our long shot to win the cup, and the price here is extremely cheap. PLAY CAROLINA |
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07-30-20 | Mariners +183 v. Angels | 8-5 | Win | 183 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
969 Seattle at LA Angeles Despite the Angels having the better squad the past three seasons, the Mariners lead this series 21 to 19. LA is a really good hitting team vs righties, but that isn’t the case vs southpaws. LA has a 937 wRC+ vs lefties which is just slightly better than league average. Only four Angels players perform better against left-handed pitchers. And Goodwin rarely plays against them and Simmons is injured. This line is simply too high considering the lineups and the starters on the mound. Worth a nice shot here at a big plus price. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-29-20 | Royals v. Tigers -125 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
924 Kansas City at Detroit Very weak offensive lineup of 787 wRC+ for the Royals vs a lefty. Detroit sits at 899, basically league average vs the southpaw. Major pitching advantage here for the Tigers, who have a much bigger edge than the current line. Won’t back the Tigers many times this year as a favorite, but this game deserves it. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-29-20 | Diamondbacks +109 v. Rangers | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at Texas Taking the plus money with the visitor here as this Texas lineup has a combined wRC+ of just 804 vs lefties. The Rangers have really struggled offensively in the early going, and we can’t see them lighting up this Arizona pitching staff. In what very well could be a low scoring game let’s back the NL squad. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-28-20 | Cubs +102 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 102 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
957 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Much was expected from the Reds this season, but this club has struggled out of the gate. After Bauer, Castillo and Gray the Reds starting rotation really steps down in class. Cincinnati matches up really well vs lefties but steps down when facing right handed pitching. The Cubs don’t have a clear number one starter, but this team goes five deep in the rotation. Chicago also has nine players that rate better than league average in wRC+ against righties. Good matchup for the visitor. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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07-27-20 | Diamondbacks +114 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at San Diego Really like this Diamondbacks team vs lefties. Today’s lineup is showing a 1020 wRC+, as opposed to the 926 wRC+ for the Padres. We also have a two tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as the Padres All-Star closer being unavailable today. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-27-20 | Angels +108 v. A's | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
901 Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Prefer the Angels lineup here which posts a 1065 wRC+ as opposed to the A’s 993 wRC+. We also have a three level edge with our starting pitching. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-26-20 | Pirates v. Cardinals -136 | 5-1 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
968 Pittsburgh at St Louis The Pirate offense has been cold to start the season and grades out as a 859 wRC+ in this contest. After the top four batters not a single Pirate hitter rates league average. St Louis rates 967 wRC+ with this lineup, but the starting pitcher advantage for the Cards is huge. Hudson has been terrific for the host, while Keller has really struggled since his promotion. Instead of betting on his promise we can only go with what we have seen at this level, which is a fade of the Pirates young righty. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-26-20 | Marlins +150 v. Phillies | 11-6 | Win | 150 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
951 Miami at Philadelphia We question the Marlins starting Sierra vs a righty, but other than that we like the Marlins chances once again today. The wRC+ is 853 compared to the Phillies 991. But we actually prefer Urena to Velasquez on the mound. A bit of money has come on the visitor and we agree. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-25-20 | Marlins +170 v. Phillies | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
911 Miami at Philadelphia This was a good result for us yesterday, and the value is there for a repeat. The Philly offense has the big names against this no name Marlins squad. But when breaking down the wRC+ hitters on the field today the Philadelphia edge is only 45. While Zack Wheeler is a quality starter, we like Chad Smith just as well. Smith started last year on fire before tiring as the season went on. We like him to bounce back strongly this season. Too much value once again on the visitor. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-24-20 | Marlins +173 v. Phillies | 5-2 | Win | 173 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
957 Miami at Philadelphia These two have been very competitive the past two years with the Phillies owning a 20-18 record in this series. We really like the offensive moves of the Marlins in the offseason. Against righties Miami now has a wRC+ lineup of 930, better than the league average of 900. In fact, despite all the big name talent for the Phillies, this lineup of 994 today isn't nearly as dominant as the past two seasons vs the Marlins. While Nola rates 26% better than Alcantara in ERA+, the line overcompensates. Plenty of value on an improved Marlins team in the season opener. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-24-20 | Tigers v. Reds -162 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
954 Detroit at Cincinnati The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this contest. The league average team will have a wRC+ of 900, as the average player will post a 100 wRC+. The starting lineup for the Tigers here against a righty is 801, while the Reds vs a lefty with this lineup will be 1128. That's a whopping 36% better with every batter in the lineup. Cincinnati putting in Matt Davidson is a huge edge over the overnight lines as he smashes lefties to the tune of a 123 wRC+ the past three seasons. That makes only one Reds batter less than league average against lefties. From a starting pitcher standpoint we also rate the Reds to have a 25% ERA+ advantage. Despite Cincinnati being a sizable favorite, this line is simply too cheap to not back the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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03-11-20 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 232 | 136-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
547 New York at Atlanta The Knicks are playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In those type of games New York has really struggled defensively. Recent point totals in back to back games have been 221, 275 against these Hawks, 233, 232, 225, and 246 points. With both of these teams out of the playoff chase we look for a free flowing game with points a plenty. PLAY OVER |
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03-10-20 | Penguins v. Devils +160 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
48 Pittsburgh at New Jersey Want no part of these Penguins right now in this price range. Losing 8 of 10 overall and really struggling right now. Historically as good as Pittsburgh has been over the years, the Pens have dropped 7 of 10 in this series and 13 of 20 in New Jersey. The Devils have run off five straight at home. The betting value is clearly on the host here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-09-20 | Avalanche v. Kings +120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
042 Colorado at Los Angeles The Kings have beaten the Avalanche 7 of 10 overall and 12 of 18 here at home. This is a team playing tremendous defense as of late, and are extremely underrated because of its record. Colorado is playing well right now and are the more popular team at the moment. That gives us nice value on the home underdog. PLAY LOS ANGELES KINGS |
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03-07-20 | Lightning +116 v. Bruins | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
009 Tampa Bay at Boston Quick revenge spot here for the Lightning who dropped a 2-1 contest earlier in the week. Tampa Bay seems to be the only team that has played well against the Bruins winning 9 of the last 11 meetings. While Boston has been outstanding as usual on their home ice. We believe the value here is on the avenging Lightning. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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03-07-20 | Hurricanes +109 v. Islanders | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
001 Carolina at NY Islanders Neither team is playing well right now but we prefer to get the plus price here with the Hurricanes. Carolina has won 7 straight in this series, so confidence will not be a factor. That cannot be said for the hosts who are in a slump and playing a team that has owned them as of late. Wrong team favored here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-06-20 | Boise State +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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03-03-20 | Canadiens +125 v. Islanders | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
21 Montreal at NY Islanders The Canadiens have won 15 of the last 20 meetings. Including winning 8 of 10 in New York. Overall Montreal has been playing poorly, but most of that has been at home. On the road the Canadiens have won 6 of 9. Getting this team at a plus price looks like a bargain. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-02-20 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. Baylor | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
863 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders dropped a 57-52 contest at home earlier to the Bears. In that game Baylor had a 53.1% offensive rebounding outing, the worst board work for the Red Raiders all season. Baylor was playing terrific ball in that earlier time frame, but the Bears has regressed as of late. Losing 2 of 3 after suffering just one loss through the first 25 games of the season. It’s senior day and the Bears have three players in their last home game in front of the home crowd. We look to fade teams at home on senior day as the coaching staff gives extra minutes to those who will be honored. Texas Tech ranks 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That tends to travel well. This line is simply too high based on how the Bears are currently playing. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-29-20 | Jets +125 v. Oilers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
83 Winnipeg at Edmonton The Jets have owned the Oilers as of late winning 6 of 7, including cashing 4 of 5 in Edmonton. The Oilers could be suffering from the Vegas flu as teams have really performed poorly after playing in Sin City. This underdog price is just too juicy to pass up. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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02-29-20 | Illinois State v. Evansville -3 | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
644 Illinois State at Evansville The Redbirds have dropped 13 of 16 as of late but one of those victories was at home against the Purple Aces. This club has not won a game on the road all season, and this is its last attempt to change that. Evansville has lost 17 straight games but this is its best chance for victory since facing Jacksonville State way back in mid-December. Hard to believe but at one point this year Evansville beat Kentucky. We expect the host to play with fire in this regular season finale, and get that long awaited win and cover. PLAY EVANSVILLE |
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02-28-20 | Cavs +12.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
533 Cleveland at New Orleans Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season. The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-27-20 | Islanders +148 v. Blues | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
49 NY Islanders at St Louis Taking a chance on New York here as history shows this club plays well in this building. The Islanders have won four straight in this venue, and five straight overall in St Louis. NY is also 7-2 overall in this series. Struggling on the road lately this line is simply too inflated. Like the chances of the Islanders here against a fat and happy host. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +8 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
502 Philadelphia at Cleveland The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March. Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -5 | 64-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
812 Rutgers at Penn State The Scarlet Knights are having a very good season, but they haven’t been productive on the road. Rutgers has just one road win on the season, and that was at a disappointing Nebraska. This team is starting to fade having lost 5 of 7 overall with one of those wins coming in overtime. On the 15th Penn State won its 20th game by beating Northwestern 77-61. Winning 20 games is something the Nittany Lions had as a goal. Since that time it has lost back to back games against Illinois and Indiana. Now back home we look for Penn State to get back on track and win this one going away. With tough games on deck against Iowa and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions are in need of a satisfying victory here. PLAY PENN STATE |
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02-25-20 | Panthers v. Coyotes -124 | 2-1 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
24 Florida at Arizona The Panthers are 2-2 on this road trip and are off a loss in Las Vegas. Teams have not performed well after partying in Sin City, and that could have an effect on the Panthers here. Especially with an important game next time out at home against Toronto. Arizona has played well at home as of late, as it looks like this team has turned around its fortunes. The number and the situation favors the home team here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
873 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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02-23-20 | Oilers v. Kings +123 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
66 Edmonton at Los Angeles Believe it or not the Edmonton Oilers are 1-15 playing in this building. For some reason this squad just doesn’t play well here. It will be even tougher today as the Oilers have a host of injuries, including McDavid, while the Kings are virtually injury free. This is a get right game for the host. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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02-22-20 | Cal-Riverside v. Cal Poly +3.5 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation. The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road. PLAY CAL POLY |
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02-22-20 | Lightning v. Coyotes +159 | 3-7 | Win | 159 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
44 Tampa Bay at Arizona The Lightning saw their 11 game winning streak go by the wayside in Las Vegas. Tampa Bay started the game with a lot of energy, then were dominated the last two periods vs the Golden Knights. Tough spot for the road team here as teams just haven’t played well after spending time in Sin City. Arizona needs every point possible in a division that is still up for grabs. We like the generous line in this one as the Coyotes are a live dog Saturday night. PLAY ARIZONA |
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02-22-20 | Michigan v. Purdue -3.5 | 71-63 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
634 Michigan at Purdue The Wolverines have gotten plenty of press lately as a long shot to win it all. And we can’t disagree as this team is on a four game winning streak heading into this contest. But until Michigan can start forcing turnovers it’s hard to back this team on the road. Purdue needs a win badly after dropping three straight to top 30 opposition. But we feel the Boilermakers have this game circled after losing in double overtime at Michigan previously. Purdue ranks 64th defensively against the 3 point shot. But the last three games opponents have hit 35 of 77 from long range. We look for that number to regress this afternoon. PLAY PURDUE |
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02-21-20 | Rangers +145 v. Hurricanes | 5-2 | Win | 145 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
19 New York Rangers at Carolina Taking a shot with the healthy Rangers here who have been very good as of late against the Hurricanes. New York is 3-0 this season and 24-6 the last 30 vs Carolina. Winning 5 of 6 on the road. Rare you see a team in this price range that has the health advantage and history on its side. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-20-20 | Bucks -13 v. Pistons | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
501 Milwaukee at Detroit Coming out of the break we like to ride teams preparing for a playoff run, and fade teams in tank mode. That’s exactly what we have here tonight in Detroit. Milwaukee has feasted on bad teams this season and have owned the Pistons as of late. Detroit is in experiment mode after trading its only All-Star. That can’t be good against a hungry team looking to grab that #1 seed throughout the playoffs. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-19-20 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Alabama | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
803 Texas A&M at Alabama Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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02-18-20 | Baylor -3 v. Oklahoma | 65-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
637 Baylor at Oklahoma There have been many casualties in the fade the Baylor Bears train. This is a team that has run off 22 straight victories and continues to impress. With a home showdown with Kansas of deck many will look to take another shot at fading the #1 team once again tonight. But not us. We have been very impressed with this Baylor squad who continues to win and cover in back scheduling spots. This squad is for real and continues to be a money maker. Oklahoma is a quality team has has only lost once on this home floor all season. But the Sooners are only 3-7 SU when stepping up in class this season. It gave Baylor all it could handle on the road in a 61-57 loss. But that could serve as a wakeup call for the visitor here. PLAY BAYLOR |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
605 Illinois at Penn State The Illini have dropped four straight games, all against top 30 opposition. And it doesn’t get much easier tonight at Penn State. But this is still a quality team ranking in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. The Illini are solid open the boards especially grabbing offensive rebounds ranking 6th in the country. At 4-5 SU on the road with wins at Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin. Penn State has run off eight straight wins including back to back double digit victories. With a trip to Indiana followed by Rutgers revenge on deck, this is a good spot to fade the favorite here. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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02-17-20 | Capitals +120 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
47 Washington at Las Vegas The Capitals are 21-7-1 on the road this season and have fond memories of clinching the title here in Vegas a couple seasons ago. Washington has won 6 of 7 in this series and look to end this three game trip with a positive performance. Vegas has been better on the road since the coaching change. And the early start time is likely to hurt the host more than the visitor. PLAY WASHINGTON |