712 Northwestern at Wisconsin

After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. 

Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building.

PLAY WISCONSIN

635 Colorado State at Utah State

Strong spot here for the Rams who have won 8 of 9 with the lone loss coming at San Diego State. Utah State is undefeated in conference and they just swept San Diego State at home. 

Keep in mind there were many questions about the Aggies heading into that two game stretch. They had already lost to VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition in their victories. Now off back to back show me games, we can’t help but think this team is a bit overrated.

PLAY COLORADO STATE

842 Tarleton State at Weber State

This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. 

Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host.

PLAY WEBER STATE

816 Western Kentucky at Marshall

Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. 

Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday.

PLAY MARSHALL

807 Penn State at Purdue

Extremely important game for the Nittany Lions who are already 0-3 in conference. State is 3-4 overall on the season with two of those losses in overtime, and a four point defeat at Michigan. The only time Penn State wasn’t competitive was in a 98-81 home loss to Illinois. 

Purdue sits at 9-5 on the year and 4-3 in Big 10 action. Off back to back wins over Michigan State and Indiana. This is the first time the Boiler Makers have played at home since Christmas Day. Off four straight road games including back to back victories, this could very well be a letdown spot for the host. Purdue has the fourth worst home court advantage in the league according to the excellent site evanmiya.com. Our numbers show plenty of value on the visitor.

PLAY PENN STATE

770 Kansas State at Texas

The Wildcats have been a major disappointment this season. This club has a defensive efficiency field goal percentage of 54.6, ranking 312th in the country. It doesn’t defend well from anywhere on the court. 

We’ve been really impressed by this Texas squad, both offensively and defensively. Coming off a last second loss to Texas Tech, after blowing a sizable lead. We expect Shaka Smart and his club to play with added intensity here.

PLAY TEXAS

760 Arizona State at Oregon State

Been fading the Sun Devils all season with solid success. That continues on Saturday as we simply do not trust this team as a road favorite. It’s one and done for this team as it ranks 329th in the nation in offensive rebounding success. Coming off a game in which it held USC to 3 of 22 from distance and still lost by nine points, this continues to be a fade team. 

Oregon State is off a blowout home loss to Arizona, the only noncompetitive game of the season for the Beavers. With a tough game with USC on deck, this is the game the Beavers need to have.

PLAY OREGON STATE

881 Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss

Blue Raiders are a bad offensive team, no doubt about it. But this team does a fine job defensively. They rank 2nd in the country defending the three. Overall 60th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers with a 19th ranking.

Southern Miss isn’t any better offensively. Turnovers are a major problem for the Golden Eagles, ranking 322nd offensively and 292nd defensively. We trust the much better defense with a big ball handling advantage.

PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE

852 Bowling Green at Buffalo

The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. 

Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise.

PLAY BUFFALO

745 Northern Colorado at Idaho

Backing the Bears here off three straight losses including an overtime affair last time out vs Montana State. At 2-4 in conference it’s time to get right for Steve Smiley’s bunch, against a very bad Idaho squad. 

The Vandals rank 319th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 331st in defensive adjusted efficiency. If Idaho falls behind big it will be tough to battle back as they don’t shoot many threes, and Northern Colorado is 59th in the country defending from distance.

PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO

307026 Longwood at Winthrop

This game all comes down to tempo. The Lancers are a slow paced team that struggles to defend at the rim. Withrop on the other hand has superior athletes and leads the nation in adjusted tempo. The host will be able to dictate the pace, and the visitor has been terrible in transition defense. Lay it!

PLAY WINTHROP

718 Stanford at Utah

The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back.

Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right.

PLAY UTAH

696 Texas A&M at Mississippi State

Aggies are 6-4 on the season but only 1-3 in conference action. They are 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. The defense when stepping up in class has been very poor. In fact, 3 of the last 4 opponents had points per possession numbers of 1.18, 1.07 and 1.22. This is a team that ranks 335th in offensive turnover percentage. 

Free throw percentage should see major regression for both teams here. A&M rank 9th in defensive percentage at 61.1, while Miss State ranks 310th offensively at 63.2%. Considering Ben Howland’s team ranks 19th in 3 pointers and 177th in two pointers, you would expect much better shooting from the line. With a top 40 ranked Florida on deck, the Bulldogs need this victory to continue the winning pace. Keep in mind the only losses the last 10 games have been in double overtime games. Clear class difference here.

PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE

638 Alabama at Kentucky

Bama has been a hot team as of late in the betting markets, after winning five straight and beating Mississippi and Tennessee. But you are paying a price now with this high scoring fan favorite. Keep in mind the Tide has only played two true road games on the season. 

Kentucky, like always it seems is an extremely young team. The Wildcats started the slate with a 1-6 record but have run off three straight wins in conference action. Keion Brooks rejoined the lineup last time out against Florida, and he should get extended minutes here. Virtually all the key college basketball websites will have Alabama as the favorite here. But they don’t include Brooks or the way Kentucky has played as of late. In fact, Kentucky has been taking wise guy money after the opener. We agree with that notion as the Cats are back baby!

PLAY KENTUCKY

692 UNLV at Colorado State

Rebels enter this contest at 1-5 on the season after battling the Rams tooth and nail in a 74-71 loss on Thursday. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 290th in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.3% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 47.9 effective field goal percentage.

Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 5-0 in this building. The Rams struggled on the boards in the first meeting with a weak 10.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to clamp down defensively here. 

PLAY COLORADO STATE

607 Alabama at Auburn

Tide is riding high right now holding five straight opponents to under a full point per possession. This is a club ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Auburn has lost its first three conference games, having a very tough time holding on to the ball. Ranking 306th on the season in turnover percentage. Not a good matchup for an Alabama team looking to run. The poor 62.1% free throw percentage is a concern in the final moments of both halves. Lay it with the rolling Tide.

PLAY ALABAMA

616 Ohio State at Rutgers

State beat Rutgers 80-68 earlier by dominating from 2 point range, hitting 23 of 39 shots. But that hasn’t been the norm for the Buckeyes who are middle of the pack in that stat on the season. 

Rutgers has dropped 3 of 4 including back to back losses against Iowa and Michigan State. Shooting was a problem in both those contests, especially the embarrassment vs the Spartans. In that game the Scarlet Knights had a points per possession number of 0.66 which is by far the worst shooting game of the season. We will look for a strong rebound today from the host, as it gains revenge on the Buckeyes.

PLAY RUTGERS

307056 Lipscomb at Bellarmine

The Bisons have yet to win a road game all season. This was a 16 win team a year ago, after three straight 20 win campaigns. The step back has been sizable. Lipscomb hasn’t left Nashville in over a month, with seven straight home games. 

We’ve been impressed by Ballarmine in its first year of division one basketball. Their only loss at home this season has been to Chattanooga who is currently 10-2 on the season. The host has terrible defensive numbers but do rank 42nd in offensive field goal percentage. They also lead the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. While that obviously will regress, Lipscomb doesn’t have the defense to take advantage.

PLAY BELLARMINE

758 Illinois at Northwestern

The Illini have been excellent so far this season with an 8-3 record. But they are just 2-2 straight up on the road with victories over a down Duke team and Penn State. Illinois doesn’t put any pressure on the oppositions ball handlers, ranking 319th in opponent turnover percentage. That’s a big deal when you are playing on the road.

Northwestern is off back to back road losses to two of the top three teams in the league, Iowa and Michigan. In those games the opposition shot lights out from downtown, 23 of 53. Keep in mind the Wildcats rank 96th in the country in defending the three. Now back at home we look for this team to take this game to the wire. They have permitted 39 of 149, just 26% from 3 point range at home. 

PLAY NORTHWESTERN

740 UNLV at Colorado State

Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage.

Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason.

PLAY COLORADO STATE

766 Oregon at Colorado

This is the best team the Ducks have played all year, and it’s just the second true road game of the season. The first was an unimpressive 74-71 win at Washington. 

Colorado is back home after a tough three games on the road at Arizona, USC and UCLA. All three Buffalo losses this season have come on the road. With this being the only game in an 11 day stretch, Colorado should be primed to even up its conference record at 2-2. This team ranks 4th in the nation in free throw shooting, which is a big consideration in a low lined game. Bounce back for the Buffs.

PLAY COLORADO

673 Virginia Tech at Louisville

Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. 

Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest.

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

633 Rutgers at Michigan State

Early money has come in on the due system of playing Michigan State in a must win game. But we simply can’t see it. The Spartans have underperformed all season, and a 7 point victory over Nebraska isn’t going to change our mind. This team held all but one non-conference opponent to less than 1.00 points per possession. But once they started playing teams that know them the Spartans have struggled defensively. The Spartans don’t force turnovers ranking 304th in the country, and rarely get to the free throw line 271st, to take advantage of a 33rd ranked free throw percentage.

Rutgers only losses were a 12 point defeat at Ohio State, and a 2 point loss at home to powerhouse Iowa last time out. Bart Torvik’s website shows the Scarlet Knights should have won both those games according to his game scores. Rutgers is a proven commodity while Michigan State looks a major step down from previous editions.

PLAY RUTGERS

867 Southern Illinois at Drake

Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis.

Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible.

Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. 

715 St Bonaventure at Richmond

Like the Bonnies here who we feel are underrated because of a small sample size. Off a loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday, we look for this game to go down to the wire. The overall numbers show this team to be a bad shooting team from distance. But the 1 of 14 opener against Akron should be taken with a grain of salt. This team was coming out of covid and was playing a veteran team. Since that time the Bonnies have hit 12 of 31 from deep. This is a club that creates turnovers ranking 38th in the country. It’s also a team that ranks 16th defensively in 3 point percentage. 

Richmond really struggled against West Virginia earlier, a team that puts pressure on the guards. We look for more of the same in this contest.

PLAY ST BONNAVENTURE

680 West Virginia at Oklahoma

Really tough matchup for the Mountaineers after having its best offensive rebounder opt out. This is a team that has struggled offensively all year, especially with outside shooting.

Oklahoma excels in that regard defensively which puts them in a great position to win this game. The well coached Sooners will take advantage of the weaknesses of the visitor here and gain a comfortable win.

PLAY OKLAHOMA

874 Old Dominion at Florida International

Tough matchup here for the Monarchs who have been terrible defending from distance. In fact, Old Dominion is getting overwhelmed from 3 point range. The team ranks 279th in offensive 3 point shooting percentage, and 309th defending the three. FIU ranks 13th nationally from 3 point range. This is a team that depends on long distance shooting, attempting 26 or more in every game. Four times this season the Panthers have hoisted 40 or more from distance. Let’s back the host in this first of a back to back situation.

PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

737 Michigan at Maryland

The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. 

Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad.

PLAY MICHIGAN

616 Wofford at Mercer

Two teams we really like facing off tonight in Macon Georgia. This is stylistically a good matchup for the host. Wofford is a team that relies heavily on the 3 pointer, hoisting 30 or more in all but one game this season. It’s also a terrible free throw shooting team ranking 331st at 51.5%.

Mercer on the other hand is at its best defending from downtown. They rank 54th in the nation in 3 point shooting defense, allowing just 28.7%. After back to back road games we like the Bears to shut down this Wofford offense.

PLAY MERCER

833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa

Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. 

Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points.

PLAY MISSOURI STATE

673 North Carolina at NC State

The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. 

The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

781 Arkansas Little Rock at Missouri State

The Trojans have gotten off to a nice 4-2 start. The offense has been impressive ranking 67th in effective field goal percentage, 46th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 30th in free throw rate. 

Missouri State is stepping up in class after beating William Jewell and Northwestern State. The Bears have terrific stats, but may have played the easiest schedule in the country. One area in which this team has struggled is free throw shooting. Ranking 319th in the nation at 57.1%. That number tells us more about the weak opposition, than the success the Bears have had. Give us the Trojans who have been better tested.

PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK

307230 Radford at Vanderbilt

Not a huge fan of this Highlanders team who has questionable guard play. Redford lost all five starters from a year ago, and ranks 310th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 245th defensively. This is a poor three point shooting team, which is not a good sign when the opponent has the better talented squad.

Vandy is coming off a home loss to Richmond in which its defense failed them. This is a club that dominates the boards with a 10th place offensive rebounding ranking, along with a 9th place rating in keeping the opponents off the offensive boards. With a team that ranks 2nd in college basketball from the free throw line, we can feel secure laying the number here.

PLAY VANDERBILT

631 North Carolina at Kentucky

Much prefer the Tar Heels here who have shown a lot more fight than the very young Wildcats. North Carolina’s only losses this year were to Texas and Iowa, two of the best squads in the country. In those games they lost the 3 point battle 26 to 7. Allowing the opposition to shoot 26 of 62 from long range. While the Tar Heels don’t shoot a lot from distance themselves, they need to limit the long ball from the opposition. The Tar Heels pound the boards hard ranking 3rd offensively and 60th defensively in rebounds. 

Kentucky has lost four straight games with every contest producing offensive points per possession numbers of under 96. Below the national average in each game. Kentucky ranks 296th in 3 point shooting, which is how you beat the Tar Heels. Look for the North Carolina big men to be the difference.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

790 Nebraska Omaha at Wyoming

Derrin Hansen’s bunch enters play with a 2-6 record with the wins coming against Middle Tennessee by a point, and SIU Edwardsville by two points. Omaha hasn’t produced an offensive ppp of over 96 in any of its eight contests. Its adjusted offensive efficiency is 307th in the country. The Mavericks just played at Colorado yesterday, and now travel to Wyoming off a 32 point loss.

The Cowboys are well rested having not played since last Saturday. Wyoming, unlike tonights opposition, has had no problem scoring. Ranking 27th in offensive effective field goal percentage. 

Omaha is 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo, which means it will try to force the faster pace, which helps the better team.

PLAY WYOMING

683 Northern Colorado at Denver

The Bears are off an embarrassing 81-45 loss just two days ago at Colorado. But this is expected to be a true contender in the Big Sky this year. Coming off three straight 21 or more win seasons, Steve Smiley has inherited a really talented squad in Greeley. 

Denver is one of the worst teams in college basketball, entering with a 1-3 record. The lone victory came against Regis, a team Northern Colorado also beat by a larger margin. The Pioneers rank 328th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 307th in adjusted defensive efficiency. What makes matters worse for Denver is they play with a fast pace, 52nd in the country. So not only are they bad on individual possessions, they want to play with more possessions per game. That’s not how you win basketball games.

PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO

665 San Diego at Cal Poly

The Toreros will be taking a major step down in class here after losing to both UCLA and Nevada to open the season. You can expect a regression after shooting just 32.9% from two point range in the first two contests.

Cal Poly is 2-2 on the season, but both victories were against a lower division team and a weak San Jose State squad. The Mustangs have really struggled shooting thus far with 26.4% from behind the arc. Only one of the four games have they produced at least 50% from two point range. This is a get right game for the more talented squad.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

643 Loyola Chicago at Wisconsin

The Ramblers are expected to compete for the Missouri Valley title this season. They brought back all five starters from a 21 game winning club. The Ramblers have excellent guard play which is a major advantage in what is expected to be a low scoring game. This club ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage, but it will be stepping way up in class in this contest.

Wisconsin returns 4 of 5 starters from a 21 win team a year ago. The Badgers split the past two games against comparable clubs to the Ramblers in Marquette and Rhode Island. Wisconsin also has a lookahead to Saturday against Louisville. The Badgers do a great job of taking care of the ball, but this line is a bit high considering the posted total. Too many points to lay into a veteran Ramblers squad that you know has this game circled. 

PLAY LOYOLA CHICAGO

307669 Winthrop at USC Upstate

The Eagles are the class of the Big South as this team is loaded. Excellent guard play and likely the best depth in the country. Defensively this club ranks 49th defending the three. Something that should revert to normal is opponent free throw percentage of 85.7%.

USC Update brings back all five starters from a team that won 13 games a year ago. That’s after seasons of 6 and 7 victories the prior two seasons. Upstate has dropped four straight to open the season, by margins of 3, 17, 28 and 10 points. Last time out hosting Georgia Southern they came up short 72-69, but that can be explained in the long distance shooting numbers. The Spartans were 10 of 19 while Georgia Southern shot 2 of 17. Can’t expect those numbers to be sustainable against this quality opponent. Lay it!

PLAY WINTHROP

632 Iowa State at Iowa

Have not been impressed with the Cyclones through two games. A 17 point win over Arkansas Pine Bluff, one of the worst teams in the country, and a 3 point home loss to South Dakota State. State has been terrible from distance and rank 304th in the nation in free throw rank. Anytime you have a bombs away offense the results will be less predictable, but we can’t see this team having better success against a top 20 Hawkeyes team.

Iowa is undefeated on the season and are off an impressive win over North Carolina. There is no lookahead for Iowa as Northern Illinois is on deck. Iowa leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Iowa State’s defense is middle of the pack. Unless the Cyclones suddenly get hot from deep, this looks like a blowout.

PLAY IOWA

855 UMKC at Minnesota

Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog.

Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. 

PLAY UMKC

637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley

The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. 

Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH

623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville

The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. 

Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers.

PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS

811 Kent State at Detroit

The Golden Flashes have looked really good so far, blowing out a cupcake and taking powerhouse Virginia to overtime on the road. This is the only game in a week for Kent State.

This is the third game in five days for the Titans who gave Michigan State and Notre Dame close encounters. But Michigan State rarely looks good early on in a season, and the Irish are not very good this year. There is also some regression on the horizon for the Titans, who lead the nation with a 90.5 free throw percentage. Detroit is a veteran team but are majorly overrated at this juncture. 

PLAY KENT STATE

656 Rider at Syracuse

The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete.

Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid.

PLAY SYRACUSE

793 St Peter’s at Maryland

This is an early start on the Friday schedule. After an 18 win season, we are high on the Peacocks who have a real shot at the title in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. St Peter’s has the length and depth in the front court to compete with a team in the rough and tumble Big 10. The Peacocks took a similarly talented St John’s team to the wire earlier in a 76-75 loss. They then beat La Salle and Stony Brook. This club ranks 32nd in three point accuracy, and 286th in adjusted tempo. As slowing the game down works well for double digit underdogs.

Maryland enters undefeated on the season with three lopsided victories. With a road game scheduled at James Madison tomorrow, we can see this team overlooking the Peacocks. Mark Turgeon’s team is also slow paced ranking 292nd, so less scoring opportunities help our squad.

PLAY ST PETER’S 

751 Connecticut & USC

Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated.

PLAY CONNECTICUT

701 San Francisco at Nevada

First of a home and home series tonight in Reno. Coming off of playing Virginia and Rhode Island, this is a slight step-down in class for the Dons. San Francisco does a great job of protecting the ball, and is coming off two poor shooting games from around the rim. 

Nevada is a solid team that has been getting a bit lucky when it comes to defending the three. Opponents have made just 21 of 88 from beyond the arc, something we don’t see continuing. The line has now gotten to the point where we find value on the Dons. This game is going to come down to the wire in our opinion.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

613 Cleveland State at Toledo

The Vikings are slowly making their way back to the program they were in the past. They are now projected to be a contender this year in the Horizon, after not winning more than 12 games in any season the past five years. This is the first game of the season

Toledo just doesn’t have the guard play we look for in backing a favorite of this size. The Rockets have played three games thus far against Bradley, Oakland and Xavier. In those games Toledo was 35 for 103 from two point range. It’s been hot shooting from downtown that has kept them competitive. Can’t expect that here against a good defensive team like the Vikings.

PLAY CLEVELAND STATE

605 Nebraska Omaha at Creighton

The Mavericks have defended well around the basket in its first three games. Ranking 31st against two point shooting. Not one of its opponents reached 50% from that range. 

Creighton is a talented team that is expected to contend in the Big East. It struggled from deep against its only opponent thus far, North Dakota State. Our numbers show that this line is too high to ask the Bluejays to extend. Sure they can get hot from the outside, but that’s not something they can bank on here. Let’s take the points with a team that matches up well around the basket.

PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA

878 Stanford at Alabama

Key matchup is the Stanford defense against the Alabama offense. Nate Oats and his squad want to run you out of the building by making this a track meet. With four returning starters and a talented bench, this will be a tough assignment for the Cardinal. Stanford had to deal with covid and haven’t played a game yet. And we have not been impressed by the PAC-12 as a whole. The long travel for the Cardinal is also a concern. The Tide is rising and we can’t see the Cardinal stopping them.

PLAY ALABAMA

307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State

The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad.

Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch.

PLAY ARIZONA STATE

704 Drexel at Pittsburgh

The Dragons are predicted in the lower echelon of the Colonial this season. They are bringing back four starters from a 14 win team. But the 14 victories have been the most in the past five seasons. 

Pittsburgh is expected to be in the lower half of the Atlantic Coast, a much stronger conference. But Jeff Capel has increased the victories from 8 to 14 to 16 last year. After dropping the season opener to St Francis PA, we look for a major bounce back today. This is a team on the upswing, and despite the fine guard play of the Dragons, we lay the points with the Panthers.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

622 Pepperdine at UCLA

The Waves are expected to be in the upper echelon of the West Coast Conference, and the team returns four starters from a 16 win team from a year ago. The talent is solid but the line here is a bit cheap from the UCLA standpoint.

We faded the Bruins at San Diego State, but this is still a very good basketball team. UCLA returned all five starters from a 19 game winning club from a year ago. They had a great deal of hype coming into the season, and this line looks as if that hype has been tempered. But that gives us value here as this line would have been three points higher if the Bruins won at San Diego State. 

PLAY UCLA

609 Ohio at Illinois

Too many points here in our opinion as Ohio U has excellent guard play to keep this game close. Off back to back weak competition it is a step up game for the Bobcats. That said, the non-blowouts in those two games have given us plenty of spread value here.

Illinois won by 62 and 59 points the first two outings, but neither of those teams play any defense. With a huge game against Baylor on deck, we can see the Illini taking Ohio U for granted here.

PLAY OHIO 

686 UCLA at San Diego State

Lots of Bruins love in the offseason after the way this team finished a year ago. Returning their entire starting lineup is also a reason why this club is getting love. But this is a new year and despite the lack of personnel changes, we can’t expect the team to be in full gear to start the season.

San Diego State is once again the class of the Mountain West Conference. After a 30 win season and 8 of 12 players being upperclassmen, it’s hard to imagine this team as a home underdog. Sure the top scorer has gone, but this team has others who can pick up the slack. We are buying low on Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs, on one of the strongest home courts in the country, despite the lack of fans.

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

627 Idaho State at Santa Clara

The Bengals are projected to be one of the lesser teams in the Big Sky this year, despite bringing back 3 of 5 starters. But we like the new additions and a couple key players returning from redshirts. 

Santa Clara has the size advantage but lacks the guard play to win in this price range. The Broncos won 20 games last year under Herb Sendek, but we see a regression this season. Keep in mind they were only 6-10 in conference action. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition. Take the points with the team with higher preseason upside.

PLAY IDAHO STATE

883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas

The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. 

The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close.

PLAY BOISE STATE

863 Texas Tech at Baylor

The Red Raiders dropped a 57-52 contest at home earlier to the Bears. In that game Baylor had a 53.1% offensive rebounding outing, the worst board work for the Red Raiders all season. 

Baylor was playing terrific ball in that earlier time frame, but the Bears has regressed as of late. Losing 2 of 3 after suffering just one loss through the first 25 games of the season. It’s senior day and the Bears have three players in their last home game in front of the home crowd. We look to fade teams at home on senior day as the coaching staff gives extra minutes to those who will be honored. 

Texas Tech ranks 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That tends to travel well. This line is simply too high based on how the Bears are currently playing.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

644 Illinois State at Evansville

The Redbirds have dropped 13 of 16 as of late but one of those victories was at home against the Purple Aces. This club has not won a game on the road all season, and this is its last attempt to change that.

Evansville has lost 17 straight games but this is its best chance for victory since facing Jacksonville State way back in mid-December. Hard to believe but at one point this year Evansville beat Kentucky. We expect the host to play with fire in this regular season finale, and get that long awaited win and cover.

PLAY EVANSVILLE

812 Rutgers at Penn State

The Scarlet Knights are having a very good season, but they haven’t been productive on the road. Rutgers has just one road win on the season, and that was at a disappointing Nebraska. This team is starting to fade having lost 5 of 7 overall with one of those wins coming in overtime.

On the 15th Penn State won its 20th game by beating Northwestern 77-61. Winning 20 games is something the Nittany Lions had as a goal. Since that time it has lost back to back games against Illinois and Indiana. Now back home we look for Penn State to get back on track and win this one going away. With tough games on deck against Iowa and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions are in need of a satisfying victory here. 

PLAY PENN STATE

873 Louisville at Florida State

The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. 

Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly

The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation.

The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road.

PLAY CAL POLY

634 Michigan at Purdue

The Wolverines have gotten plenty of press lately as a long shot to win it all. And we can’t disagree as this team is on a four game winning streak heading into this contest. But until Michigan can start forcing turnovers it’s hard to back this team on the road.

Purdue needs a win badly after dropping three straight to top 30 opposition. But we feel the Boilermakers have this game circled after losing in double overtime at Michigan previously. Purdue ranks 64th defensively against the 3 point shot. But the last three games opponents have hit 35 of 77 from long range. We look for that number to regress this afternoon.

PLAY PURDUE

803 Texas A&M at Alabama

Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. 

Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. 

PLAY TEXAS A&M

637 Baylor at Oklahoma

There have been many casualties in the fade the Baylor Bears train. This is a team that has run off 22 straight victories and continues to impress. With a home showdown with Kansas of deck many will look to take another shot at fading the #1 team once again tonight. But not us. We have been very impressed with this Baylor squad who continues to win and cover in back scheduling spots. This squad is for real and continues to be a money maker.

Oklahoma is a quality team has has only lost once on this home floor all season. But the Sooners are only 3-7 SU when stepping up in class this season. It gave Baylor all it could handle on the road in a 61-57 loss. But that could serve as a wakeup call for the visitor here.

PLAY BAYLOR

605 Illinois at Penn State

The Illini have dropped four straight games, all against top 30 opposition. And it doesn’t get much easier tonight at Penn State. But this is still a quality team ranking in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. The Illini are solid open the boards especially grabbing offensive rebounds ranking 6th in the country. At 4-5 SU on the road with wins at Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin. 

Penn State has run off eight straight wins including back to back double digit victories. With a trip to Indiana followed by Rutgers revenge on deck, this is a good spot to fade the favorite here. 

PLAY ILLINOIS

740 Auburn at Missouri

The Tigers have played five overtimes combined in its last five games, all wins. Now Auburn steps down in class to face a Missouri team not ranked in the top 100. That’s after playing ten straight top 100 squads. If there ever was a flat spot for this club it’s tonight.

Missouri has dropped 9 of its last 12 games, but is 9-3 SU at home this season. While the Tigers offense has struggled at times the defense has been very good. We like the home dog chances for the Tigers here.

PLAY MISSOURI

622 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Red Raiders are 2-4 SU on the road this season and beat the Cowboys 85-50 at home in the first meeting. Coming off an 88-42 blowout of TCU, the price will never be higher to back Texas Tech.

Oklahoma State has dropped 12 of 17 so nobody is running to back the Cowboys here. But that provides value on the host. The earlier 35 point loss was by far its most embarrassing defeat of the season. After winning 3 of the last 6 overall we look for the host to take this to the wire.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

695 Washington State at UCLA

Cougars have struggled on the conference road, going winless thus far. But this team was able to beat the Bruins in overtime earlier in the conference season. While many will try to play the revenge angle here for the host, the value is on the visitor in this price range. Washington State takes great care of the ball and also forces turnovers, ranked 32nd and 42nd respectively in the country. 

UCLA has played better as of late, but we simply don’t trust the Bruins laying this chalk. 

PLAY WASHINGTON STATE

631 Michigan State at Illinois

This is traditionally the time of year when the Spartans start to play their best ball. But after losing three straight games the onus is on this squad tonight. Coming off a loss to instate rival Michigan, we expect a superior effort tonight from the visitor. Ranking in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, this team beat the Illini by 20 in early January. Better team gets it done tonight.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

673 Virginia at Louisville

This number is awfully high considering how these two play defense. With a total in the 114 range we will gladly take the points with the #1 defense in college basketball. The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU against Top 50 opposition this season, and have held every opponent to 70 points or less.

Louisville is on a 9 game winning streak and sit at 11-1 in conference. Coming off five straight games of 77 points or more the Cardinals will have a much tougher time offensively here. Despite the gaudy 20-3 record Louisville is only 2-3 SU vs Top 50 opposition.  With just one win being higher than this current number.

PLAY VIRGINIA

642 Purdue at Indiana

Trailing the Boilermakers in the standings, and coming in having lost three straight, this is a must win game for the host. Just two home losses on the season for Indiana.

Purdue has won back to back games including a blowout of Iowa by 36 points last time out. But before that this team lost 5 of 7. The Boilermakers are only 2-6 SU on the road this year. Lay it with the Hoosiers.

PLAY INDIANA

842 UNLV at Utah State

The Rebels are 1-9 straight up on the season against top 100 opposition. The lone victory was a 70-53 blowout over this Utah State squad. UNLV has just two road victories on the season and both went to overtime. Turnovers have been a problem all season ranking 281st offensively and 277th defensively.

Utah State is 70th in offensive turnovers. This is a team ranking in the top 60 both in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. After falling apart late in its showdown contest at San Diego State, we expect a fired up host here. The Aggies only home loss on the season came against the undefeated San Diego State team. 

PLAY UTAH STATE

632 Xavier at DePaul

The Musketeers had been cruising to an 11-2 record before Big East play. Now with the tougher schedule Xavier has dropped 5 of its last 7. The Saturday win at Seton Hall was just the second straight up road win of the season. While Xavier’s defense has traveled well this team ranks 289th in the nation in three point accuracy. That and a 319th ranked free throw percentage will likely come in to play here.

Very similar to Xavier, DePaul feasted on non-conference competition, but sits at 1-8 in Big East play. But only two of those defeats came by double digits. This is a team on a four game losing streak that has road trips to Georgetown and Creighton on deck. This is a must win game for the host, and we expect its best effort of the conference season.

PLAY DEPAUL

861 North Carolina at Florida State

Now that the Tar Heels are getting healthy we want to look to back North Carolina in these type of situations. While the Tar Heels have gotten better, the wins haven’t come around. Two overtime losses and a one point loss to Boston College last time out keep this team out of the press. But that gives us plenty of value here against a #5 rated team we have ranked 20th. 

While Florida State is 9-3 SU against top 100 opposition, wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 1 point. This is a team that is getting favorable bounces going 7-2 in close games. The Tar Heels have the talent to take this to the wire.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

752 Oregon at Stanford

Oregon has played five top 40 teams on the season with a 3-2 record including a win by 2 and an overtime win by 1. Despite the 18-4 record these two teams are much closer in talent.

The Cardinal have dropped three straight games by a combined 11 points. This is a team that has lost on this court just twice all season. They are also 16-6 ATS vs divisional rivals on this court.

PLAY STANFORD

847 Baylor at Iowa State

Surprised this number is available considering how dominant the Bears have been on the road. Undefeated on true road courts this season, and no lookahead with TCU at home on Saturday. Baylor beat Iowa State at home 68-55 just two weeks ago. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is dominant on the offensive boards at 5th in the country. 

Iowa State has already lost three times at home this season, including a defeat to Florida A&M. This squad has also lost 6 of 8 overall with the wins coming against the Oklahoma schools. While the offense is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the defense ranks 140th. The Cyclones are 291st keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. That is the telling stat here as the Bears should dominate down low offensively. This is a cheap number.

PLAY BAYLOR

794 Pacific at Gonzaga

While the Tigers look to be a pretty good team based on a 15-7 record, the truth is they are 3-7 against top 200 opposition. They are 4-3 SU on the road but the best team it played away from home is 120th ranked UC Irvine. 

Gonzaga is 20-1 on the season and was just knocked out of the #1 spot despite not losing a game. We expect the Zags to take no prisoners the rest of the way in the West Coast Conference. We saw some of that the last two outings with a 23 point win over BYU and a 50 point blowout of Santa Clara. Lay it with the team on a mission.

PLAY GONZAGA

650 Southern Illinois at Illinois State

The Salukis sit at 4-3 in conference after back to back home wins over Drake and Northern Iowa. But this is a team that is 0-7 on the road this season. Southern Illinois is a pretty good defensive team that struggles on the offensive end. They haven’t reached 70 points in eight straight games.

Illinois State is desperate for a victory having lost six straight entering play today. But it has two winnable home games with Southern Illinois and Evansville. The Redbirds are a good three point shooting team who should have a solid advantage playing at home. Lay it with the Redbirds.

PLAY ILLINOIS STATE

626 LSU at Texas

All is right for the Tigers right now with a seven game winning streak. But a closer look shows how lucky this team has been. Five straight victories by a total of 13 points with one of those games going to overtime. LSU has an excellent offense, especially around the basket. But offense doesn’t work as well normally on the road.

Texas is 2-4 in conference and have lost back to back games against West Virginia and Kansas. Playing LSU is actually a step down in class for the Longhorns. Must win game for the host, against a fat and happy Tigers squad.

PLAY TEXAS

862 St Peters at Rider

The Peacocks have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but blew out Quinnipiac on the road last Saturday. Now 3-6 SU on the road this season. Saint Peter’s is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 8th in the country. But very weak offensively at 331st in effective field goal percentage, and bad holding onto the ball at 348th. 

The Broncs of Rider have lost 6 of 8 and sit at 3-4 in conference. This looks like a must win game for the host. Rider is 4-1 SU at home this year with the lone loss being the last time it played at Alumni Gymnasium. While St Peter’s is great in offensive rebounding, that plays directly into what Rider does best, hit the glass. The Broncs are 60th in offensive rebounding, and 8th in the country keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Rider is also extremely good getting to the line and keeping opponents from getting to the strike. We look for Rider to take advantage of a solid home court here and get back in the win column.

PLAY RIDER

637 UTSA at North Texas

The Roadrunners had a tough non-conference slate, losing to the likes of Oklahoma, Utah State and Oregon State. But that strengthend this teams resolve as UTSA has won 8 of 12 as of late. At 3-3 in Conference USA play, and with three straight winnable games after this, the Roadrunners could set themselves up pretty well with a win here. 

North Texas is 6-1 in conference and have won six straight. Coming off a 20 point victory over Rice, this team looks prone for a letdown. While the Mean Green are a very good scoring team, it ranks 322nd in turnovers and 323rd in free throw rate. The line shows the host to be significantly better, but our numbers disagree.

PLAY UTSA

240 Jacksonville at Lipscomb

The Dolphins have dropped 6 of 7 and are 1-4 in the Atlantic Sun Conference. This is one of the worst offenses in college basketball. Ranking 339th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 316th in effective field goal percentage. This is also a club that turns the ball over (297th) and doesn’t force turnovers (327th). 

Lipscomb has dropped three straight and is now 2-4 in conference play. The weakness of the Bisons is defense as they rank 328th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite a 7-12 overall record this team is an acceptable 4-3 at home. This is a cheap number considering Jacksonville’s inability to put points on the board.

PLAY LIPSCOMB

613 Illinois Chicago at Oakland

After an 0-7 start on the road the Flames tasted victory for the first time Saturday at IUPUI. That’s back to back wins which puts this team at 3-4 in conference. The Flames rank 65th in defending the perimeter at 30.5%. 

Oakland has been on a terrible 3-11 run, including 1-3 straight up at home. At 2-5 this is a must win game for the Golden Grizzlies. The question is if this team is up for it. Oakland is 334th shooting from the perimeter, that has been the Achilles heel for this club. Tough to lay points with a team that turns the ball over at 308th, and can’t score from three.

PLAY ILLINOIS CHICAGO

782 Georgetown at Xavier

Hoyas have dropped 4 of 6 lately, along with three straight on the road. Georgetown ranks 288th defending the three, which is always a concern on the road.

At 1-4 in conference and off three straight losses, you know you will get a full effort from the host. Really like this defense which ranks 38th defending the three, and 68th against 2 point attempts. We expect this Xavier defense to clamp down and get this team back in the win column.

PLAY XAVIER

807 Utah at Arizona

The Utes have lost 4 of its last 5 games. But those contests were against San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado and Arizona, all top 20 programs. Now the Utes step down in class to take on an Arizona State team we rank 94th in the nation. Utah is 36th in the country in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in defensive free throw rating. This is a quality team despite the overall record.

Arizona State has yet to beat a team in the top 55, so we can’t see this team pulling away from Utah. Especially considering its the 297th shooting 3 point percentage unit.

PLAY UTAH

770 Indiana at Nebraska

The Hoosiers have dropped 3 of its last 5 and sit at 3-3 in league play. Indiana is also winless on the road this season dropping all three contests. This club is 307th in the country in 3 point shooting, which makes it tough to lay a number with on the road.

Nebraska is 7th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, so the Hoosiers will not get many easy baskets. At 2-4 in conference this is a must win game for the Huskers with trips to Wisconsin and Rutgers on deck.

PLAY NEBRASKA

677 Nebraska Omaha at Denver

Omaha is a team that lives and dies by the perimeter. Ranking 68th in 3 point shooting and 301st in defending the three. This club is 3-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming last time out at South Dakota, a 91-81 defeat. While many will look at the 1-8 SU record on the road. A closer look sees that this team has been extremely tested playing at Wichita State, Dayton, St Mary’s and Arizona.

Denver at 4-15 is a bad basketball team. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Ranking 339th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 350th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a get right game for the visitor.

PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA

635 Dartmouth at Harvard

The first of back to back games for these two. The Crimson have reeled off six straight wins entering Saturday action, and the team is undefeated on its home court. That said this line is a bit inflated based on the talent of these two clubs. Harvard ranks 305th in defending from the perimeter, which keeps a dog of this size live. 

Dartmouth is also an excellent defensive rebounding team, so it’s likely one and done for the host. Just too many points to lay in this one.

PLAY DARTMOUTH

620 Detroit at Green Bay

The Titans have just one road victory on the season. That win came on Thursday as Detroit beat Milwaukee 90-84. This is a club that ranks badly in just about every individual category. Including 312th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 320th in offensive effective field goal percentage. 

Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation. It’s also a very good shooting team at 46th in 3 point accuracy. We look for the Phoenix to use their solid free throw shooting to extend a second half lead.

PLAY GREEN BAY

859 Furman at Wofford

Big fan of this Furman offense which ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers but doesn’t turn the ball over themselves. This club dominates in the paint ranking 5th in the nation in 2 point shooting percentage.

Wofford has a solid home court advantage, but ranks 300th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Going up against this Furman offense won’t be easy. The host also struggles to get to the line ranking 318th, so late game foul shots may not be there in a close game.

PLAY FURMAN

861 Wisconsin at Michigan State

It’s well known by now how well home teams have done in the Big 10 Conference. They have dominated league play thus far, but now is the time to fade those inflated prices. Wisconsin only has two straight up losses on the road this year, at NC State and Rutgers. With wins at Tennessee, Ohio State and Penn State. The Badgers are 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

While Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing 29 point loss at Purdue, this club is only 5-4 SU vs top 60 opposition. 

In what we expect to be a defensive struggle this is way too many points to give.

PLAY WISCONSIN

Now on a 16-2 College Basketball run after sweeping our two releases yesterday. Thursday we continue our hard court dominance with a west coast best bet. Join us as we continue to see these games extremely well. 

637 Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago

The visitor has really struggled on the road this season, but that said this line is extremely high. Coming off a blowout loss at Bradley, we find great value on the underdog here.

At 7-2 SU at home and coming off a 34 point domination of Evansville, this line is extremely inflated. Value play on the dog here.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

826 Xavier at Marquette

The Musketeers are 0-4 SU against top 40 opposition, and are coming off back to back home losses to Creighton and Seton Hall. This is a poor shooting club from the perimeter, which makes it hard to win away from home.

Marquette has lost 3 of 4 as of late, as this becomes a must win game for the host. Unlike its opponent, this team ranks 5th in the country in 3 point shooting.

PLAY MARQUETTE

796 Indiana at Rutgers

Hoosiers sit at 13-3 on the season and are off back to back wins over Ohio State and Northwestern. But a closer look shows Indiana only playing two try road games. A 20 point loss at Wisconsin and a 16 point loss at Maryland.

Rutgers has an excellent defense, and is undefeated on this home court this season. 

PLAY RUTGERS

647 San Diego State at Fresno State

The undefeated Aztecs have been especially impressive on the road. Road margins have been by 5, 17, 22, 9 and 20 points. San Diego State has played three top 30 teams overall and won by 5 at BYU, 31 on a neutral vs Creighton, and 10 on a neutral vs Iowa. This team is just as good away as at home.

Fresno ranks 312th in the country in forcing turnovers, so the Bulldogs are at a disadvantage against this talented team. At 4-3 at home on the season this club just doesn’t have the horses to compete in this one.

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

633 DePaul at Villanova

The Blue Demons have started conference play 0-3. But have solid wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech on the season. Defense travels and this Dave Leitao team is highly ranked in that regard.

Villanove is 12-3 and looks solid once again, but this club doesn’t win by margins. Overall 4 of the last 5 wins have come by margins of 5, 6, 1 and 8 points. DePaul has the ability to slow down this Wildcat offense.

PLAY DEPAUL