Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-21 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
801 Towson at College of Charleston The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests. PLAY TOWSON |
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02-07-21 | Iowa -2.5 v. Indiana | 65-67 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
797 Iowa at Indiana The Hawkeyes are in a bit of a slump right now losing 3 of 4 heading into this revenge game against Indiana. Iowa dropped an 81-69 decision on the 21st of January, a game that started this down trend. In that game they had an effective field goal percentage of 42.1, the lowest mark of the season. Iowa also shot 5 of 23 from downtown, its worst shooting from distance game. Keep in mind the Hawkeyes rank 20th in the nation in three point percentage. Indiana had a 66.0 free throw rate, which was the worst of the year for Iowa, and the best for the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers also shot a solid 8 of 17 from distance, the second best long range shooting game of the season for the Hoosiers. Iowa has struggled defensively as of late, but on the season they rank middle of the pack in defensive adjusted efficiency. Important game for the visitor here. PLAY IOWA |
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02-06-21 | Grambling State +6.5 v. Southern | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
307029 Grambling at Southern The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting. PLAY GRAMBLING |
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02-06-21 | Nicholls State +2.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory. PLAY NICHOLLS STATE |
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02-06-21 | Creighton -4.5 v. Marquette | 71-68 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
701 Creighton at Marquette The Bluejays enter this contest off an embarrassing home loss to Georgetown. Creighton permitted 10 of 21 shooting from downtown against the Hoyas. That was their second worst performance in that regard this season. This is also a revenge game as it lost to Marquette at home 89-84 in Mid-December. In that contest the Golden Eagles had a PPP on 132.6, by far the worst defensive performance for the Bluejays this season. To put it in perspective, the second worst PPP was 117.2. Marquette shot 12 of 21 from downtown in that contest, once again the worst defensive mark of the season for Creighton. Marquette has dropped 3 of 4 lately with the only win coming by 3 hosting Butler in its last game. The Golden Eagles have only won two games all season on this court against Top 100 opposition. Take the road favorite here. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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02-06-21 | Charlotte -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-06-21 | Montana v. Portland State +3 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
668 Montana at Portland State The Grizzlies have reeled off 5 of 7 victories as of late, including an overtime victory over Portland State on Thursday. That’s three overtimes Montana has played in its last two games. The Grizzlies held the Vikings to 6 of 29 from distance in that contest. When backing Montana at this point of the season heavy negative regression is in store. This team ranks 8th in college hoops in free throw percentage at 79.3. But the real regression comes from the opposition, as the Grizzlies opponents are shooting just 61.1% from the foul stripe, the worst in all of basketball. Obviously since there is no defense involved in free throw shooting Montana has been extremely lucky. This is also the fourth straight road game for this club. Portland State has won 2 of 3 as of late with the only loss in overtime to these Grizzlies. This is also the fifth straight home game for the Vikings. Give us the avenging host in this one. PLAY PORTLAND STATE |
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02-06-21 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -4 | 55-57 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
638 Louisiana Tech at North Texas Quick revenge spot for the Mean Green after dropping a 68-63 contest at home yesterday to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs dominated inside yesterday hitting 23 of 36 from two point range, while allowing only 17 of 29. That’s not what was expected as North Texas on the season ranks 32nd offensively from that distance and 54th defensively from two point range. We look for the host to bounce back in this one. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +9 v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington 4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage. PLAY UL MONROE |
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02-05-21 | Akron v. Kent State -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
872 Akron at Kent State We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory. PLAY KENT STATE |
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02-05-21 | Wagner v. St Francis NY -2.5 | 84-81 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
307364 Wagner at St Francis NY The Seahawks beat the Terriers 74-67 last night, but were very fortunate to do so. They held St Francis to an offensive ppp of 98.0, the second best defensive effort of the season for the visitor. That’s totally out of character for Wagner as they rank 290th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. The Seahawks had its second highest offensive rebounding percentage of the season, and by far its top free throw rate of the campaign. The 26 of 45 shooting from 2 point range was also a season high. St Francis NY is now off back to back losses for only the second time this season. They followed the last losing streak with a 19 point rout. After three straight bad performances from distance we look for the Terriers to have better success on Friday. PLAY ST FRANCIS NY |
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02-04-21 | Tennessee State +2.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | 60-68 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
725 Tennessee State at SIU Edwardsville The Tigers come in with a very disappointing 3-12 record. But they slightly outplayed SIU in the earlier 67-65 loss at home. They had the higher EFG% in that contest 47.1 to 42.4. SIU Edwardsville has the better record at 6-8, but they haven’t won a home game all season. They are 0-3 in the Vadalbene Center. Losing all three games against teams we rate in the 300’s. There is no way we can trust this team laying points at home. When two bad teams face each other points are the way to go. Give us the Tigers to pounce on this victory. PLAY TENNESSEE STATE |
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02-03-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence | Top | 60-43 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
681 Seton Hall at Providence The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday. PLAY SETON HALL |
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02-02-21 | Morgan State v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
307306 Morgan State at Coppin State This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday. PLAY COPPIN STATE |
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02-02-21 | Akron v. Toledo -5.5 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
618 Akron at Toledo Zips were able to defeat the Rockets in overtime 95-94 in the previous meeting. That was on the heels of back to back losses to Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. That victory turned around the season for Akron who has since run off six straight victories. The Zips are just 2-3 SU away from The JAR this season. Akron has their second highest offensive ppp in that previous contest. While allowing a season high 127.9 defensive ppp to the Rockets. Toledo is undefeated at John F Savage Arena, and would have had a 13 game winning streak if not for that previous loss. Look for Toledo to get even with the Zips on Tuesday. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-02-21 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +11.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
626 West Virginia at Iowa State The Mountaineers won the first meeting 70-65, but the game was played virtually evenly. The Cyclones dominated inside with a 19 of 32 mark on two pointers. West Virginia has struggled in the last eight overall games, going 4-4 with only two wins being by more than three points. Iowa State isn’t a very good team this year, dropping 9 of 11. But they have played a very tough slate with six games against Top 40 opposition. Off five straight losses the Cyclones will be playing with their hair on fire here. Just too many points for West Virginia to lay on the road. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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02-02-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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02-02-21 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. NJIT | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
307307 MD Baltimore County at NJIT Early start on the added board slate. The Retrievers lost to the Highlanders last night, shooting a miserable 11 of 31 from two point range. On the season they are at 50.3% from that range. Obviously it was the worst shooting of the season from inside. NJIT on the other hand had their best shooting game from two point range all season. That’s not to be expected again as they only hit 44.5% from that range all season. This team ranks 310th in the nation from that range. Look for the better team to be more physical here as the Retrievers fetch and early afternoon winner. PLAY MD BALTIMORE COUNTY |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
838 UNLV at Nevada The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-30-21 | Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech | 51-65 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
719 Virginia at Virginia Tech The first meeting of the season between these two was postponed. Now they meet in Blacksburg where Evan Miya rates this home court 244th in the season. The Hokies have a lofty 12-3 record but are only 1-2 vs Top 50 opposition. The losses coming to Penn State by 20 and Syracuse by 18. Virginia has won 10 of 11 with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. This is a team that started slow, being shocked in its second game vs San Francisco. We’ve since learned the Dons are a Top 100 team. This is a strong matchup for the visitor, as what the Hokies do best offensively, the Cavaliers do better defensively. The number fits right into what we were looking for. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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01-30-21 | Utah +8.5 v. Colorado | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
645 Utah at Colorado Early start in the PAC 12 should help provide value to the underdog. Utah comes in with a 6-7 record on the season, but Bart Torvik shows that bad luck has been consistent for the Utes. His numbers show that Utah was only outplayed in three games this season. So you would expect some positive regression for this team we have much better than their record. Colorado steps up in class here after playing Washington State and Washington. Keep in mind despite the strong record the Buffaloes are only 4-3 vs Top 100 opposition. Too many points to lay here in this afternoon affair. PLAY UTAH |
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01-29-21 | Monmouth v. Niagara +4 | 77-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
832 Monmouth at Niagara Hawks are playing very well as of late winning four straight games. But keep in mind when looking at its 7-4 record, this team has played 9 of those 11 games at home. Monmouth hasn’t traveled since January 4th at Siena for two games. They lost to the Saints in both those games. So we have a winless on the road Hawks team laying points on the road. This is a team that ranks 304th in the country in letting opponents get to the line. That’s especially concerning when the vast majority of games were played in friendly confines of the OceanFirst Bank Center. Yes, this is a step up game for the Purple Eagles after facing Qunnipiac, Manhattan and Rider. But this is just the fifth home game of the season for Greg Paulus’ crew. They are 3-1 straight up at home this year. The early line move towards the Hawks is overblown, give us the Saints as a home underdog. PLAY NIAGARA |
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01-27-21 | Miami-FL +11 v. Florida State | 59-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
659 Miami Florida at Florida State The Hurricanes are a much better team than its record suggests. Based on ShotQuality numbers this team is one of the most unlucky in the nation. Miami has won only six games but based on the type of shots taken, as well as the player skill for those shots, the Hurricanes should have 9.4 victories. Florida State on the other hand has been extremely lucky. Having won 9 games where the shot numbers show a 7.4 win team. Florida State no doubt will win the three point battle, but Miami does enough things well enough to stay under this number. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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01-26-21 | Butler +5.5 v. Connecticut | 51-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
633 Butler at Connecticut Revenge game for the Bulldogs who lost to the Huskies at home 72-60. In that game UConn shot 10 of 21 from long distance. Butler ranks 17th in the country in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. This is also a team that should see some positive regression at the free throw line, ranking 340th with a 60.8 free throw percentage. We’ve made money on the Huskies this year, but the team has gotten a bit overrated. Its terrific offensive rebounding edge won’t have the same affect here. Off back to back losses many will look for a bounce back here from the host, but this is the 284th ranked home court via Evan Miya. ShotQuality states that the Bulldogs are an underrated bunch, projected to have won 10 games instead of the 8-7 record they possess. Connecticut has been a bit lucky with its 8-3 mark. They are only in the 86th percentile offensively, and 91st defensively. Nice value on the road dog here. PLAY BUTLER |
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01-26-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
621 Oklahoma at Texas Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-23-21 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-23-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +9 | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
642 Baylor at Oklahoma State Tough stretch of games for the Bears who just beat Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma. They are 13-0 on the season, and along with Gonzaga they are elite. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten. Oklahoma State are 9-3 on the year and just 3-3 in conference. But the three losses have been by 1 to TCU, 3 at Texas and 3 vs West Virginia. While this is the third game in eight days for the Bears, the Cowboys haven’t played since the 12th. That gives Mike Boynton and his crew plenty of time to game plan for this contest. We will back the substantial home dog to take this to the wire. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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01-22-21 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +4 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
836 Georgia State at Appalachian State The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road. App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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01-21-21 | Portland +22.5 v. BYU | 67-95 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
757 Portland at BYU The Pilots are not a good team and are 0-4 in conference. They enter play having dropped five straight games. But the spot screams Portland here. BYU just played San Francisco, St Mary’s and Gonzaga, with a home and home with Pepperdine on deck. They have won 6 of 7 with the only loss at Gonzaga. After facing the top of the conference we can’t see the Cougars getting excited to play the Pilots here, with its next game coming up on Saturday. BYU is clearly the better team, but this line is a high threshold to overcome. PLAY PORTLAND |
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01-20-21 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
712 Northwestern at Wisconsin After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +8 v. Utah State | 64-83 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
635 Colorado State at Utah State Strong spot here for the Rams who have won 8 of 9 with the lone loss coming at San Diego State. Utah State is undefeated in conference and they just swept San Diego State at home. Keep in mind there were many questions about the Aggies heading into that two game stretch. They had already lost to VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition in their victories. Now off back to back show me games, we can’t help but think this team is a bit overrated. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-17-21 | Tarleton St v. Weber State -12 | Top | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
842 Tarleton State at Weber State This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host. PLAY WEBER STATE |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
816 Western Kentucky at Marshall Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-17-21 | Penn State +5.5 v. Purdue | 72-80 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
807 Penn State at Purdue Extremely important game for the Nittany Lions who are already 0-3 in conference. State is 3-4 overall on the season with two of those losses in overtime, and a four point defeat at Michigan. The only time Penn State wasn’t competitive was in a 98-81 home loss to Illinois. Purdue sits at 9-5 on the year and 4-3 in Big 10 action. Off back to back wins over Michigan State and Indiana. This is the first time the Boiler Makers have played at home since Christmas Day. Off four straight road games including back to back victories, this could very well be a letdown spot for the host. Purdue has the fourth worst home court advantage in the league according to the excellent site evanmiya.com. Our numbers show plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-16-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -17 | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
770 Kansas State at Texas The Wildcats have been a major disappointment this season. This club has a defensive efficiency field goal percentage of 54.6, ranking 312th in the country. It doesn’t defend well from anywhere on the court. We’ve been really impressed by this Texas squad, both offensively and defensively. Coming off a last second loss to Texas Tech, after blowing a sizable lead. We expect Shaka Smart and his club to play with added intensity here. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-16-21 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +6 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
760 Arizona State at Oregon State Been fading the Sun Devils all season with solid success. That continues on Saturday as we simply do not trust this team as a road favorite. It’s one and done for this team as it ranks 329th in the nation in offensive rebounding success. Coming off a game in which it held USC to 3 of 22 from distance and still lost by nine points, this continues to be a fade team. Oregon State is off a blowout home loss to Arizona, the only noncompetitive game of the season for the Beavers. With a tough game with USC on deck, this is the game the Beavers need to have. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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01-15-21 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Southern Miss | 54-84 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
881 Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss Blue Raiders are a bad offensive team, no doubt about it. But this team does a fine job defensively. They rank 2nd in the country defending the three. Overall 60th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers with a 19th ranking. Southern Miss isn’t any better offensively. Turnovers are a major problem for the Golden Eagles, ranking 322nd offensively and 292nd defensively. We trust the much better defense with a big ball handling advantage. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -5 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
852 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-14-21 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
745 Northern Colorado at Idaho Backing the Bears here off three straight losses including an overtime affair last time out vs Montana State. At 2-4 in conference it’s time to get right for Steve Smiley’s bunch, against a very bad Idaho squad. The Vandals rank 319th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 331st in defensive adjusted efficiency. If Idaho falls behind big it will be tough to battle back as they don’t shoot many threes, and Northern Colorado is 59th in the country defending from distance. PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO |
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01-14-21 | Longwood v. Winthrop -16 | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
307026 Longwood at Winthrop This game all comes down to tempo. The Lancers are a slow paced team that struggles to defend at the rim. Withrop on the other hand has superior athletes and leads the nation in adjusted tempo. The host will be able to dictate the pace, and the visitor has been terrible in transition defense. Lay it! PLAY WINTHROP |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
718 Stanford at Utah The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back. Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right. PLAY UTAH |
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01-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
696 Texas A&M at Mississippi State Aggies are 6-4 on the season but only 1-3 in conference action. They are 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. The defense when stepping up in class has been very poor. In fact, 3 of the last 4 opponents had points per possession numbers of 1.18, 1.07 and 1.22. This is a team that ranks 335th in offensive turnover percentage. Free throw percentage should see major regression for both teams here. A&M rank 9th in defensive percentage at 61.1, while Miss State ranks 310th offensively at 63.2%. Considering Ben Howland’s team ranks 19th in 3 pointers and 177th in two pointers, you would expect much better shooting from the line. With a top 40 ranked Florida on deck, the Bulldogs need this victory to continue the winning pace. Keep in mind the only losses the last 10 games have been in double overtime games. Clear class difference here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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01-12-21 | Alabama v. Kentucky -3 | 85-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
638 Alabama at Kentucky Bama has been a hot team as of late in the betting markets, after winning five straight and beating Mississippi and Tennessee. But you are paying a price now with this high scoring fan favorite. Keep in mind the Tide has only played two true road games on the season. Kentucky, like always it seems is an extremely young team. The Wildcats started the slate with a 1-6 record but have run off three straight wins in conference action. Keion Brooks rejoined the lineup last time out against Florida, and he should get extended minutes here. Virtually all the key college basketball websites will have Alabama as the favorite here. But they don’t include Brooks or the way Kentucky has played as of late. In fact, Kentucky has been taking wise guy money after the opener. We agree with that notion as the Cats are back baby! PLAY KENTUCKY |
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01-09-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -7 | 80-83 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
692 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-5 on the season after battling the Rams tooth and nail in a 74-71 loss on Thursday. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 290th in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.3% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 47.9 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 5-0 in this building. The Rams struggled on the boards in the first meeting with a weak 10.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Look for the host to clamp down defensively here. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-09-21 | Alabama -5 v. Auburn | 94-90 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
607 Alabama at Auburn Tide is riding high right now holding five straight opponents to under a full point per possession. This is a club ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn has lost its first three conference games, having a very tough time holding on to the ball. Ranking 306th on the season in turnover percentage. Not a good matchup for an Alabama team looking to run. The poor 62.1% free throw percentage is a concern in the final moments of both halves. Lay it with the rolling Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-09-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers -4 | 79-68 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
616 Ohio State at Rutgers State beat Rutgers 80-68 earlier by dominating from 2 point range, hitting 23 of 39 shots. But that hasn’t been the norm for the Buckeyes who are middle of the pack in that stat on the season. Rutgers has dropped 3 of 4 including back to back losses against Iowa and Michigan State. Shooting was a problem in both those contests, especially the embarrassment vs the Spartans. In that game the Scarlet Knights had a points per possession number of 0.66 which is by far the worst shooting game of the season. We will look for a strong rebound today from the host, as it gains revenge on the Buckeyes. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-08-21 | Lipscomb v. Bellarmine +1 | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
307056 Lipscomb at Bellarmine The Bisons have yet to win a road game all season. This was a 16 win team a year ago, after three straight 20 win campaigns. The step back has been sizable. Lipscomb hasn’t left Nashville in over a month, with seven straight home games. We’ve been impressed by Ballarmine in its first year of division one basketball. Their only loss at home this season has been to Chattanooga who is currently 10-2 on the season. The host has terrible defensive numbers but do rank 42nd in offensive field goal percentage. They also lead the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. While that obviously will regress, Lipscomb doesn’t have the defense to take advantage. PLAY BELLARMINE |
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01-07-21 | Illinois v. Northwestern +6.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
758 Illinois at Northwestern The Illini have been excellent so far this season with an 8-3 record. But they are just 2-2 straight up on the road with victories over a down Duke team and Penn State. Illinois doesn’t put any pressure on the oppositions ball handlers, ranking 319th in opponent turnover percentage. That’s a big deal when you are playing on the road. Northwestern is off back to back road losses to two of the top three teams in the league, Iowa and Michigan. In those games the opposition shot lights out from downtown, 23 of 53. Keep in mind the Wildcats rank 96th in the country in defending the three. Now back at home we look for this team to take this game to the wire. They have permitted 39 of 149, just 26% from 3 point range at home. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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01-07-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -9 | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
740 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-07-21 | Oregon v. Colorado -3 | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
766 Oregon at Colorado This is the best team the Ducks have played all year, and it’s just the second true road game of the season. The first was an unimpressive 74-71 win at Washington. Colorado is back home after a tough three games on the road at Arizona, USC and UCLA. All three Buffalo losses this season have come on the road. With this being the only game in an 11 day stretch, Colorado should be primed to even up its conference record at 2-2. This team ranks 4th in the nation in free throw shooting, which is a big consideration in a low lined game. Bounce back for the Buffs. PLAY COLORADO |
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Louisville | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
673 Virginia Tech at Louisville Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-05-21 | Rutgers +2.5 v. Michigan State | 45-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
633 Rutgers at Michigan State Early money has come in on the due system of playing Michigan State in a must win game. But we simply can’t see it. The Spartans have underperformed all season, and a 7 point victory over Nebraska isn’t going to change our mind. This team held all but one non-conference opponent to less than 1.00 points per possession. But once they started playing teams that know them the Spartans have struggled defensively. The Spartans don’t force turnovers ranking 304th in the country, and rarely get to the free throw line 271st, to take advantage of a 33rd ranked free throw percentage. Rutgers only losses were a 12 point defeat at Ohio State, and a 2 point loss at home to powerhouse Iowa last time out. Bart Torvik’s website shows the Scarlet Knights should have won both those games according to his game scores. Rutgers is a proven commodity while Michigan State looks a major step down from previous editions. PLAY RUTGERS |
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01-04-21 | Southern Illinois +10.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
867 Southern Illinois at Drake Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis. Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible. Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-02-21 | Stanford v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. |
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01-02-21 | St Bonaventure +5 v. Richmond | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
715 St Bonaventure at Richmond Like the Bonnies here who we feel are underrated because of a small sample size. Off a loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday, we look for this game to go down to the wire. The overall numbers show this team to be a bad shooting team from distance. But the 1 of 14 opener against Akron should be taken with a grain of salt. This team was coming out of covid and was playing a veteran team. Since that time the Bonnies have hit 12 of 31 from deep. This is a club that creates turnovers ranking 38th in the country. It’s also a team that ranks 16th defensively in 3 point percentage. Richmond really struggled against West Virginia earlier, a team that puts pressure on the guards. We look for more of the same in this contest. PLAY ST BONNAVENTURE |
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01-02-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -1.5 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
680 West Virginia at Oklahoma Really tough matchup for the Mountaineers after having its best offensive rebounder opt out. This is a team that has struggled offensively all year, especially with outside shooting. Oklahoma excels in that regard defensively which puts them in a great position to win this game. The well coached Sooners will take advantage of the weaknesses of the visitor here and gain a comfortable win. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +1.5 | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
874 Old Dominion at Florida International Tough matchup here for the Monarchs who have been terrible defending from distance. In fact, Old Dominion is getting overwhelmed from 3 point range. The team ranks 279th in offensive 3 point shooting percentage, and 309th defending the three. FIU ranks 13th nationally from 3 point range. This is a team that depends on long distance shooting, attempting 26 or more in every game. Four times this season the Panthers have hoisted 40 or more from distance. Let’s back the host in this first of a back to back situation. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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12-31-20 | Michigan -1 v. Maryland | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
737 Michigan at Maryland The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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12-29-20 | Wofford v. Mercer -2.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
616 Wofford at Mercer Two teams we really like facing off tonight in Macon Georgia. This is stylistically a good matchup for the host. Wofford is a team that relies heavily on the 3 pointer, hoisting 30 or more in all but one game this season. It’s also a terrible free throw shooting team ranking 331st at 51.5%. Mercer on the other hand is at its best defending from downtown. They rank 54th in the nation in 3 point shooting defense, allowing just 28.7%. After back to back road games we like the Bears to shut down this Wofford offense. PLAY MERCER |
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12-28-20 | Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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12-22-20 | North Carolina -1 v. NC State | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
673 North Carolina at NC State The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-21-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +1 v. Missouri State | 77-85 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
781 Arkansas Little Rock at Missouri State The Trojans have gotten off to a nice 4-2 start. The offense has been impressive ranking 67th in effective field goal percentage, 46th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 30th in free throw rate. Missouri State is stepping up in class after beating William Jewell and Northwestern State. The Bears have terrific stats, but may have played the easiest schedule in the country. One area in which this team has struggled is free throw shooting. Ranking 319th in the nation at 57.1%. That number tells us more about the weak opposition, than the success the Bears have had. Give us the Trojans who have been better tested. PLAY ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK |
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12-19-20 | Radford v. Vanderbilt -11.5 | 50-59 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
307230 Radford at Vanderbilt Not a huge fan of this Highlanders team who has questionable guard play. Redford lost all five starters from a year ago, and ranks 310th in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 245th defensively. This is a poor three point shooting team, which is not a good sign when the opponent has the better talented squad. Vandy is coming off a home loss to Richmond in which its defense failed them. This is a club that dominates the boards with a 10th place offensive rebounding ranking, along with a 9th place rating in keeping the opponents off the offensive boards. With a team that ranks 2nd in college basketball from the free throw line, we can feel secure laying the number here. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-19-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Kentucky | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
631 North Carolina at Kentucky Much prefer the Tar Heels here who have shown a lot more fight than the very young Wildcats. North Carolina’s only losses this year were to Texas and Iowa, two of the best squads in the country. In those games they lost the 3 point battle 26 to 7. Allowing the opposition to shoot 26 of 62 from long range. While the Tar Heels don’t shoot a lot from distance themselves, they need to limit the long ball from the opposition. The Tar Heels pound the boards hard ranking 3rd offensively and 60th defensively in rebounds. Kentucky has lost four straight games with every contest producing offensive points per possession numbers of under 96. Below the national average in each game. Kentucky ranks 296th in 3 point shooting, which is how you beat the Tar Heels. Look for the North Carolina big men to be the difference. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-17-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Wyoming -10.5 | 78-82 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
790 Nebraska Omaha at Wyoming Derrin Hansen’s bunch enters play with a 2-6 record with the wins coming against Middle Tennessee by a point, and SIU Edwardsville by two points. Omaha hasn’t produced an offensive ppp of over 96 in any of its eight contests. Its adjusted offensive efficiency is 307th in the country. The Mavericks just played at Colorado yesterday, and now travel to Wyoming off a 32 point loss. The Cowboys are well rested having not played since last Saturday. Wyoming, unlike tonights opposition, has had no problem scoring. Ranking 27th in offensive effective field goal percentage. Omaha is 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo, which means it will try to force the faster pace, which helps the better team. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-16-20 | Northern Colorado -6 v. Denver | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
683 Northern Colorado at Denver The Bears are off an embarrassing 81-45 loss just two days ago at Colorado. But this is expected to be a true contender in the Big Sky this year. Coming off three straight 21 or more win seasons, Steve Smiley has inherited a really talented squad in Greeley. Denver is one of the worst teams in college basketball, entering with a 1-3 record. The lone victory came against Regis, a team Northern Colorado also beat by a larger margin. The Pioneers rank 328th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 307th in adjusted defensive efficiency. What makes matters worse for Denver is they play with a fast pace, 52nd in the country. So not only are they bad on individual possessions, they want to play with more possessions per game. That’s not how you win basketball games. PLAY NORTHERN COLORADO |
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12-16-20 | San Diego -6 v. Cal Poly | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
665 San Diego at Cal Poly The Toreros will be taking a major step down in class here after losing to both UCLA and Nevada to open the season. You can expect a regression after shooting just 32.9% from two point range in the first two contests. Cal Poly is 2-2 on the season, but both victories were against a lower division team and a weak San Jose State squad. The Mustangs have really struggled shooting thus far with 26.4% from behind the arc. Only one of the four games have they produced at least 50% from two point range. This is a get right game for the more talented squad. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-15-20 | Loyola-Chicago +9 v. Wisconsin | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
643 Loyola Chicago at Wisconsin The Ramblers are expected to compete for the Missouri Valley title this season. They brought back all five starters from a 21 game winning club. The Ramblers have excellent guard play which is a major advantage in what is expected to be a low scoring game. This club ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage, but it will be stepping way up in class in this contest. Wisconsin returns 4 of 5 starters from a 21 win team a year ago. The Badgers split the past two games against comparable clubs to the Ramblers in Marquette and Rhode Island. Wisconsin also has a lookahead to Saturday against Louisville. The Badgers do a great job of taking care of the ball, but this line is a bit high considering the posted total. Too many points to lay into a veteran Ramblers squad that you know has this game circled. PLAY LOYOLA CHICAGO |
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12-12-20 | Winthrop -10.5 v. USC Upstate | 95-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
307669 Winthrop at USC Upstate The Eagles are the class of the Big South as this team is loaded. Excellent guard play and likely the best depth in the country. Defensively this club ranks 49th defending the three. Something that should revert to normal is opponent free throw percentage of 85.7%. USC Update brings back all five starters from a team that won 13 games a year ago. That’s after seasons of 6 and 7 victories the prior two seasons. Upstate has dropped four straight to open the season, by margins of 3, 17, 28 and 10 points. Last time out hosting Georgia Southern they came up short 72-69, but that can be explained in the long distance shooting numbers. The Spartans were 10 of 19 while Georgia Southern shot 2 of 17. Can’t expect those numbers to be sustainable against this quality opponent. Lay it! PLAY WINTHROP |
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12-11-20 | Iowa State v. Iowa -12.5 | 77-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
632 Iowa State at Iowa Have not been impressed with the Cyclones through two games. A 17 point win over Arkansas Pine Bluff, one of the worst teams in the country, and a 3 point home loss to South Dakota State. State has been terrible from distance and rank 304th in the nation in free throw rank. Anytime you have a bombs away offense the results will be less predictable, but we can’t see this team having better success against a top 20 Hawkeyes team. Iowa is undefeated on the season and are off an impressive win over North Carolina. There is no lookahead for Iowa as Northern Illinois is on deck. Iowa leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Iowa State’s defense is middle of the pack. Unless the Cyclones suddenly get hot from deep, this looks like a blowout. PLAY IOWA |
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12-10-20 | UMKC +18 v. Minnesota | Top | 61-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
855 UMKC at Minnesota Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog. Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. PLAY UMKC |
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12-09-20 | Southern Utah -3.5 v. Utah Valley | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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12-09-20 | Eastern Illinois -3.5 v. Evansville | Top | 65-68 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers. PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS |
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12-08-20 | Kent State -2.5 v. Detroit | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
811 Kent State at Detroit The Golden Flashes have looked really good so far, blowing out a cupcake and taking powerhouse Virginia to overtime on the road. This is the only game in a week for Kent State. This is the third game in five days for the Titans who gave Michigan State and Notre Dame close encounters. But Michigan State rarely looks good early on in a season, and the Irish are not very good this year. There is also some regression on the horizon for the Titans, who lead the nation with a 90.5 free throw percentage. Detroit is a veteran team but are majorly overrated at this juncture. PLAY KENT STATE |
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12-05-20 | Rider v. Syracuse -22.5 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
656 Rider at Syracuse The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete. Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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12-04-20 | St. Peter's +14 v. Maryland | 57-90 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
793 St Peter’s at Maryland This is an early start on the Friday schedule. After an 18 win season, we are high on the Peacocks who have a real shot at the title in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. St Peter’s has the length and depth in the front court to compete with a team in the rough and tumble Big 10. The Peacocks took a similarly talented St John’s team to the wire earlier in a 76-75 loss. They then beat La Salle and Stony Brook. This club ranks 32nd in three point accuracy, and 286th in adjusted tempo. As slowing the game down works well for double digit underdogs. Maryland enters undefeated on the season with three lopsided victories. With a road game scheduled at James Madison tomorrow, we can see this team overlooking the Peacocks. Mark Turgeon’s team is also slow paced ranking 292nd, so less scoring opportunities help our squad. PLAY ST PETER’S |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut -1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
751 Connecticut & USC Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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12-02-20 | San Francisco +3.5 v. Nevada | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
701 San Francisco at Nevada First of a home and home series tonight in Reno. Coming off of playing Virginia and Rhode Island, this is a slight step-down in class for the Dons. San Francisco does a great job of protecting the ball, and is coming off two poor shooting games from around the rim. Nevada is a solid team that has been getting a bit lucky when it comes to defending the three. Opponents have made just 21 of 88 from beyond the arc, something we don’t see continuing. The line has now gotten to the point where we find value on the Dons. This game is going to come down to the wire in our opinion. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-01-20 | Cleveland State +8 v. Toledo | 61-70 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
613 Cleveland State at Toledo The Vikings are slowly making their way back to the program they were in the past. They are now projected to be a contender this year in the Horizon, after not winning more than 12 games in any season the past five years. This is the first game of the season Toledo just doesn’t have the guard play we look for in backing a favorite of this size. The Rockets have played three games thus far against Bradley, Oakland and Xavier. In those games Toledo was 35 for 103 from two point range. It’s been hot shooting from downtown that has kept them competitive. Can’t expect that here against a good defensive team like the Vikings. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha +20 v. Creighton | 67-94 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
605 Nebraska Omaha at Creighton The Mavericks have defended well around the basket in its first three games. Ranking 31st against two point shooting. Not one of its opponents reached 50% from that range. Creighton is a talented team that is expected to contend in the Big East. It struggled from deep against its only opponent thus far, North Dakota State. Our numbers show that this line is too high to ask the Bluejays to extend. Sure they can get hot from the outside, but that’s not something they can bank on here. Let’s take the points with a team that matches up well around the basket. PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA |
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11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -1.5 | 82-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
878 Stanford at Alabama Key matchup is the Stanford defense against the Alabama offense. Nate Oats and his squad want to run you out of the building by making this a track meet. With four returning starters and a talented bench, this will be a tough assignment for the Cardinal. Stanford had to deal with covid and haven’t played a game yet. And we have not been impressed by the PAC-12 as a whole. The long travel for the Cardinal is also a concern. The Tide is rising and we can’t see the Cardinal stopping them. PLAY ALABAMA |
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11-29-20 | Houston Baptist v. Arizona State -34.5 | Top | 77-100 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad. Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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11-28-20 | Drexel v. Pittsburgh -10 | 74-83 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
704 Drexel at Pittsburgh The Dragons are predicted in the lower echelon of the Colonial this season. They are bringing back four starters from a 14 win team. But the 14 victories have been the most in the past five seasons. Pittsburgh is expected to be in the lower half of the Atlantic Coast, a much stronger conference. But Jeff Capel has increased the victories from 8 to 14 to 16 last year. After dropping the season opener to St Francis PA, we look for a major bounce back today. This is a team on the upswing, and despite the fine guard play of the Dragons, we lay the points with the Panthers. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-27-20 | Pepperdine v. UCLA -7 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
622 Pepperdine at UCLA The Waves are expected to be in the upper echelon of the West Coast Conference, and the team returns four starters from a 16 win team from a year ago. The talent is solid but the line here is a bit cheap from the UCLA standpoint. We faded the Bruins at San Diego State, but this is still a very good basketball team. UCLA returned all five starters from a 19 game winning club from a year ago. They had a great deal of hype coming into the season, and this line looks as if that hype has been tempered. But that gives us value here as this line would have been three points higher if the Bruins won at San Diego State. PLAY UCLA |
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11-27-20 | Ohio +16.5 v. Illinois | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
609 Ohio at Illinois Too many points here in our opinion as Ohio U has excellent guard play to keep this game close. Off back to back weak competition it is a step up game for the Bobcats. That said, the non-blowouts in those two games have given us plenty of spread value here. Illinois won by 62 and 59 points the first two outings, but neither of those teams play any defense. With a huge game against Baylor on deck, we can see the Illini taking Ohio U for granted here. PLAY OHIO |
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11-25-20 | UCLA v. San Diego State +3 | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
686 UCLA at San Diego State Lots of Bruins love in the offseason after the way this team finished a year ago. Returning their entire starting lineup is also a reason why this club is getting love. But this is a new year and despite the lack of personnel changes, we can’t expect the team to be in full gear to start the season. San Diego State is once again the class of the Mountain West Conference. After a 30 win season and 8 of 12 players being upperclassmen, it’s hard to imagine this team as a home underdog. Sure the top scorer has gone, but this team has others who can pick up the slack. We are buying low on Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs, on one of the strongest home courts in the country, despite the lack of fans. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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11-25-20 | Idaho State +12 v. Santa Clara | 49-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
627 Idaho State at Santa Clara The Bengals are projected to be one of the lesser teams in the Big Sky this year, despite bringing back 3 of 5 starters. But we like the new additions and a couple key players returning from redshirts. Santa Clara has the size advantage but lacks the guard play to win in this price range. The Broncos won 20 games last year under Herb Sendek, but we see a regression this season. Keep in mind they were only 6-10 in conference action. The schedule was loaded with weak opposition. Take the points with the team with higher preseason upside. PLAY IDAHO STATE |
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03-06-20 | Boise State +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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03-02-20 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. Baylor | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
863 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders dropped a 57-52 contest at home earlier to the Bears. In that game Baylor had a 53.1% offensive rebounding outing, the worst board work for the Red Raiders all season. Baylor was playing terrific ball in that earlier time frame, but the Bears has regressed as of late. Losing 2 of 3 after suffering just one loss through the first 25 games of the season. It’s senior day and the Bears have three players in their last home game in front of the home crowd. We look to fade teams at home on senior day as the coaching staff gives extra minutes to those who will be honored. Texas Tech ranks 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That tends to travel well. This line is simply too high based on how the Bears are currently playing. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-29-20 | Illinois State v. Evansville -3 | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
644 Illinois State at Evansville The Redbirds have dropped 13 of 16 as of late but one of those victories was at home against the Purple Aces. This club has not won a game on the road all season, and this is its last attempt to change that. Evansville has lost 17 straight games but this is its best chance for victory since facing Jacksonville State way back in mid-December. Hard to believe but at one point this year Evansville beat Kentucky. We expect the host to play with fire in this regular season finale, and get that long awaited win and cover. PLAY EVANSVILLE |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -5 | 64-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
812 Rutgers at Penn State The Scarlet Knights are having a very good season, but they haven’t been productive on the road. Rutgers has just one road win on the season, and that was at a disappointing Nebraska. This team is starting to fade having lost 5 of 7 overall with one of those wins coming in overtime. On the 15th Penn State won its 20th game by beating Northwestern 77-61. Winning 20 games is something the Nittany Lions had as a goal. Since that time it has lost back to back games against Illinois and Indiana. Now back home we look for Penn State to get back on track and win this one going away. With tough games on deck against Iowa and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions are in need of a satisfying victory here. PLAY PENN STATE |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
873 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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02-22-20 | Cal-Riverside v. Cal Poly +3.5 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation. The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road. PLAY CAL POLY |
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02-22-20 | Michigan v. Purdue -3.5 | 71-63 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
634 Michigan at Purdue The Wolverines have gotten plenty of press lately as a long shot to win it all. And we can’t disagree as this team is on a four game winning streak heading into this contest. But until Michigan can start forcing turnovers it’s hard to back this team on the road. Purdue needs a win badly after dropping three straight to top 30 opposition. But we feel the Boilermakers have this game circled after losing in double overtime at Michigan previously. Purdue ranks 64th defensively against the 3 point shot. But the last three games opponents have hit 35 of 77 from long range. We look for that number to regress this afternoon. PLAY PURDUE |
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02-19-20 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Alabama | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
803 Texas A&M at Alabama Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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02-18-20 | Baylor -3 v. Oklahoma | 65-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
637 Baylor at Oklahoma There have been many casualties in the fade the Baylor Bears train. This is a team that has run off 22 straight victories and continues to impress. With a home showdown with Kansas of deck many will look to take another shot at fading the #1 team once again tonight. But not us. We have been very impressed with this Baylor squad who continues to win and cover in back scheduling spots. This squad is for real and continues to be a money maker. Oklahoma is a quality team has has only lost once on this home floor all season. But the Sooners are only 3-7 SU when stepping up in class this season. It gave Baylor all it could handle on the road in a 61-57 loss. But that could serve as a wakeup call for the visitor here. PLAY BAYLOR |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
605 Illinois at Penn State The Illini have dropped four straight games, all against top 30 opposition. And it doesn’t get much easier tonight at Penn State. But this is still a quality team ranking in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. The Illini are solid open the boards especially grabbing offensive rebounds ranking 6th in the country. At 4-5 SU on the road with wins at Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin. Penn State has run off eight straight wins including back to back double digit victories. With a trip to Indiana followed by Rutgers revenge on deck, this is a good spot to fade the favorite here. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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02-15-20 | Auburn v. Missouri +5.5 | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
740 Auburn at Missouri The Tigers have played five overtimes combined in its last five games, all wins. Now Auburn steps down in class to face a Missouri team not ranked in the top 100. That’s after playing ten straight top 100 squads. If there ever was a flat spot for this club it’s tonight. Missouri has dropped 9 of its last 12 games, but is 9-3 SU at home this season. While the Tigers offense has struggled at times the defense has been very good. We like the home dog chances for the Tigers here. PLAY MISSOURI |
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02-15-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State +4 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
622 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Red Raiders are 2-4 SU on the road this season and beat the Cowboys 85-50 at home in the first meeting. Coming off an 88-42 blowout of TCU, the price will never be higher to back Texas Tech. Oklahoma State has dropped 12 of 17 so nobody is running to back the Cowboys here. But that provides value on the host. The earlier 35 point loss was by far its most embarrassing defeat of the season. After winning 3 of the last 6 overall we look for the host to take this to the wire. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-13-20 | Washington State +8 v. UCLA | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
695 Washington State at UCLA Cougars have struggled on the conference road, going winless thus far. But this team was able to beat the Bruins in overtime earlier in the conference season. While many will try to play the revenge angle here for the host, the value is on the visitor in this price range. Washington State takes great care of the ball and also forces turnovers, ranked 32nd and 42nd respectively in the country. UCLA has played better as of late, but we simply don’t trust the Bruins laying this chalk. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |