Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-07-19 | Indians -120 v. Reds | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 0 m | Show | |
975 Cleveland at Cincinnati Bauer & Mahle In the last three seasons Bauer has faced the Reds three times total. In those starts he has produced game scores of 64, 84 and 56. He posted a 35 game score his last outing against the Royals. On the season he has been excellent after a poor performance. Game scores of 65, 76, 49, 59 and 75 after a performance worse than league average. On a five game winning streak overall for the Tribe we look for that success to continue. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-06-19 | Yankees +129 v. Rays | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
917 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Sabathia & Snell The Yankees continued their dominance of the Rays this year with another extra inning winning affair. NY is 9-2 vs Tampa this season with all but one victory coming by three runs or more. CC Sabathia is in his farewell season and he will be honored at the All-Star Game. In his last four starts against the Rays CC has put up game score numbers of 66, 58, 51 and 70. In his last five against Tampa Bay he owns a 1.65 ERA. Blake Snell was outstanding his last outing vs Texas, but his three previous starts showed game scores of 13, 19 and 35. Last year he caught all the breaks in winning the Cy Young with a 1.89 ERA. This year those breaks has been going against him. He has an 8.28 ERA in his last seven starts. Has he completely turned around his season with that last start against Texas? Too early to tell by our numbers, but his name still brings out the public bettors. Plenty of value with the road dog Yanks here. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-05-19 | A's -143 v. Mariners | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
973 Oakland at Seattle Anderson & Kikuchi Rare lefty vs lefty matchup here. The A’s are 16-7 on the season vs southpaws, while the Mariners are just 8-17. Brett Anderson has faced Seattle five times the past two seasons with an average game score of 52. Kikuchi is facing Oakland for the fourth time already this season, with an average game score of 42. In Yusei’s last seven starts overall his average game score is a pathetic 31. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-05-19 | Rockies +165 v. Diamondbacks | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
957 Colorado at Arizona Senzatela & Greinke The Rockies are 26-25 vs righties and 20-23 overall on the road. Arizona is 28-32 vs righties and 17-22 at home. Colorado has won 8 of 10 meetings this year and 19 of 29 the past two seasons. Antonio Senzatela has been terrific his last three starts against the D Backs. Allowing just 4 earned runs in 19.2 innings of work. Grienke’s last three home starts had game scores of 47, 37 and 33. Plenty of value here on the dog. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-05-19 | Red Sox v. Tigers +214 | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
966 Boston at Detroit Rodriguez & Soto As dominant as the Red Sox have been the past three seasons they are just 9-8 in this series. While the Tigers are a terrible 22-46 vs right handed starters, they are a respectable 6-8 vs lefties. Boston is 4-6 its last ten games overall and have permitted 78 runs in that spam. No way this team deserves to be a favorite of this size. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-05-19 | Orioles +121 v. Blue Jays | 4-1 | Win | 121 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
963 Baltimore at Toronto Bundy & Sachez Yes the Orioles are a terrible 14-30 on the road, but the Jays are just as bad at home with a 17-28 mark. The Orioles are 16-37 vs righties and Toronto is 19-37 vs right handed starters. Bundy hasn’t been great but he’s head and shoulders better than Sanchez. Hard to believe but Aaron Sanchez has an average game score of 28 in his last seven starts. League average is 50. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-04-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -210 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
910 San Diego at LA Dodgers Lamet & Ryu PLAY LA DODGERS |
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07-04-19 | Tigers v. White Sox -107 | 11-5 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
914 Detroit at Chicago White Sox Boyd & Lopez The White Sox are 15-11 on the season against left-handed starters. Matthew Boyd has struggled as of late on the road against weak hitting clubs like Cleveland and Kansas City. Reynaldo Lopez isn’t a highly rated starter, but he has fared well against these Tigers. In his last five starts against Detroit he has an average game score of 60. In his last four he has produced 77, 56, 71 and 57. Well above league average numbers. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-02-19 | Indians v. Royals +162 | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
922 Cleveland at Kansas City Bauer & Junis Trevor Bauer had a 75 game score in his only start against the Royals this year. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 60. That start against Kansas City was just a week ago, and you would think the Royals would make some adjustments. After all Bauer has put up game scores of 25 and 39 in two of his last five starts against Kansas City. Jake Junis has a 50 average game score his last seven. His strikeout to walk ratio is a solid 41 to 13. The Tribe dominated the Royals each of the last two seasons, but KC owns a 4-2 mark this year. The Royals are on a 5-2 home run against these Indians. This number is just too high, especially when you consider the putrid Orioles pitching staff held the Tribe to two total runs in a three game series this past weekend. Worth a chance to take the big number with the underdog Royals. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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07-02-19 | Angels +132 v. Rangers | 9-4 | Win | 132 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
917 LA Angels at Texas Suarez & Minor We don’t want to come off insensitive after the tragic death of Tyler Skaggs yesterday. If you are anything like me, the loss of someone you admired had to affect you in some way. And if you and I can feel that way, the players reactions will be even more affected. Every year or so something like this happens in one sport or another. And the team that was affected most, plays in honor of its fallen teammate. While the numbers are correct that Mike Minor and the Rangers should be favored tonight. You can throw out all the analytics because this game is unlike any other. We expect the underdog Angels to rise to the occasion and honor their brother. And because of the situation, it wouldn’t be beyond reason to think the Rangers wouldn’t have the same energy as usual. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-02-19 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
908 Philadelphia at Atlanta Nola & Keuchel Aaron Nola has been better as of late, but those starts were at home. On the season away from home Nola has produced game scores of 33, 30, 50, 68, 47 and 25. Just one game better than league average. As expected Dallas Keuchel is dealing with a bit of rust after sitting out close to half the season. While his game scores were 40 and 40, keep in mind he was on the road against the Cubs and Nationals, two very good hitting teams. The Phillies are only 9-13 on the year vs left-handed pitchers. They are also 17-23 away from home. Atlanta is 37-29 vs righties and 24-17 at home. The Braves return home off a long road trip but had yesterday off. We prefer the home team in this one. PLAY ATLANTA |
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06-30-19 | Cardinals v. Padres -112 | 5-3 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
912 St Louis at San Diego Mikolas & Lucchesi Mike Mikolas broke out in a big way last year but has regressed in 2019. He has been especially bad on the road with game scores of 34, 44, 10, 57, 41, 41 and 39. Just one game better than league average on the season. The opposite is true of Joey Lucchesi who has been dominant in Petco Park. His home game scores on the season are 73, 45, 69, 65, 45, 61, 45, 64 and 67. His worst home game score on the season is better than all but one road game score for Mikolas. Despite the Cardinals having by far the better record over the past three seasons, San Diego is 11-8 in this series. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-30-19 | Pirates +149 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
905 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Brault & Davies The Brewers are a solid 34-25 vs right handed starters, but just 10-14 vs lefties. Over the past seven starts for each pitcher Brault has an average game score of 49 while Davies sits at 41. It’s clear that Zach Davies has come back down to normal after an outstanding start to the season. In his last three home starts he has produced game scores of 32, 43 and 24. The last three seasons the Pirates own the series 24 to 23, so despite the Brewers being the better team Pittsburgh has held its own. The Brewers are not hitting right now, scoring just 14 combined runs its last five games. On the other hand the Pirates have reached double digits in three of its last six contests. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-30-19 | Royals +122 v. Blue Jays | 7-6 | Win | 122 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
919 Kansas City at Toronto Keller & Sanchez Despite 6 of 7 starts being on the road Brad Keller owns an average game score of 53 during that time frame. His strikeout to walk ratio is a solid 30 to 11. Aaron Sanchez on the other hand continues to struggle. A 34 average game score his last seven starts with a 19 to 19 strikeout to walk ratio. None of his last six starts produced higher than a 42 game score. Keep in mind league average is 50. Toronto is a somewhat respectable 13-17 vs left handed starts, but only 18-35 vs righties. The Blue Jays are also ten games under .500 playing at home. There is no way the Jays should be favored by this type of margin this afternoon. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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06-29-19 | A's +135 v. Angels | Top | 4-0 | Win | 135 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
977 Oakland at LA Angels Anderson & Skaggs Nice value on the underdog here as Brett Anderson has only had one bad outing on the road this season. In his other road starts he has put up game scores of 54, 49, 55, 48, 62, 59 and 55. Consistently solid away from Oakland. In his last five starts against the Angels his average game score was 56. LA is only 11-18 vs left handed starters, but 31-23 vs righties. Oakland on the other hand is 14-7 vs lefties as opposed to 30-32 vs righties. Lefty Tyler Skaggs has been good as of late with a 55 average game score his last seven. But in his last five starts against the A’s he is averaging just a 38, never lasting more than 4.2 innings in any outing. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-28-19 | Nationals -147 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
927 Washington at Detroit Sanchez & Norris Usually you can find value betting on a team on a losing streak, when facing a team playing well. But that’s not the case at all in this one, as we see value in the road favorite. The Tigers are 11-27 at home on the season. In the last 10 games Detroit has scored a total of 28 runs. In the last five home games the Tigers have scored 1, 1, 3, 0 and 2 runs. Anibal Sanchez isn’t lights out like he was last year, but he’s been very consistent. His last seven starts show an average game score of 56. Every offense he faced in that time frame is much better than this Tiger scoring unit. While the Tigers have averaged 2.8 runs its last ten, the Nationals are averaging 6.7. Cheap number to lay with the Pats. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-27-19 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Giants | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
959 Arizona at San Francisco Young & Beede Lefty Alex Young is making his MLB debut tonight for the Diamondbacks. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to play on unknown lefty staters the first time through the league. San Francisco is only 8-16 on the season vs left handed starting pitching. The Giants are just 16-23 at home overall on the season. Arizona on the other hand is a sparking 24-19 on the road. Tyler Beede has a 40 average game score his last seven starts, which is 10 less than an average MLB starter. In two starts against these D’Backs his game score average is also 40. He faced Arizona just five days ago and gave up four earned runs in four innings of action. In two starts he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 6 to 8. While we always expect a bounce back from a pitcher that was pounded in a recent start, not sure the Giants can put enough runs on the board to matter. PLAY ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS |
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06-25-19 | Rockies v. Giants -155 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
960 Colorado at San Francisco Gonzalez & Bumgarner Rarely will you ever see a starting pitching mismatch of this magnitude in this price range. Our numbers show Bumgarner with a 54% advantage in starting pitching.Mad Bum has a league average 50 game score his last seven starts and a 51 average game score his last five vs Colorado. His last two facing the Rockies here resulted in 64 and 63 game scores. Chi Chi Gonzalez hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. In 2015 & 16 he had a 37 to 41 strikeout to walk ratio. His last seven starts dating back to that time shows an average game score of 37. That was from his days with the Rangers. While the number seems high based on the records of both squads, it’s high for a reason. The Giants should dominate offensively tonight. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers -123 v. Diamondbacks | 5-8 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
905 LA Dodgers at Arizona Kershaw & Greinke The first thing you think about in this matchup is two future hall of fame starters. But a closer look shows the LA offense could be very live here. The Dodgers are 37-16 on the season vs righty starters. Over the last six games LA has scored 42 runs. Covering the latest seven games for Arizona the D’Backs have allowed 55 runs. Greinke is averaging a 50 game score in his last five starts vs the Dodgers. Kershaw on the other hand is averaging a 63 vs Arizona. Kershaw has posted road game scores of 60, 60, 53 and 63 this season. Greinke has struggled as of late at home with scores of 37 and 33 his last two times out. We lay the cheap price with the best team in the National League. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-23-19 | Astros -122 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
969 Houston at NY Yankees Verlander & Happ Justin Verlander has been very good after a subpar performance by his standards. After a 60 game score or less he has posted 72, 81 and 75 scores the next outing. The Astros are 16-6 on the season vs lefty starters. Getting plenty of value here with our team dropping seven straight, with the Yankees winning eight straight. Happy is a league average pitcher his last seven outings and his average game score against the Astros is only 45. Verlander on the other hand is averaging 70 his last seven outings and 60 his last five vs the Bronx Bombers. The public will look at this game and bet the hot team vs the cold team, especially with the Yanks installed as a home dog. We totally disagree with that public thought process. PLAY HOUSTON |
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06-22-19 | Reds +111 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
907 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Castillo & Chacin Luis Castillo has been tremendous on the road this season. His game scores have been 64, 68, 31, 74, 60, 68 and 53. The lone bad game came here against the Brewers. But in his last five starts against Milwaukee he had produced game scores of 80, 53, 52 and 76 before that May collapse. We expect him to rebound nicely against a team he had pitched very well against in the past. Chacin in his last four starts shows game scores of 48, 16, 40 and 41. He’s not exactly excelled this year with a 51 to 32 strikeout to walk rate, and a 5.60 ERA. The Reds have won six straight games overall, while Milwaukee has dropped five straight. If we take in the extra inning and 1 run game records, he show Cincinnati to have the better record when factoring out the luck factor. Better team on a hot streak as a dog? Yeah we will bite. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-21-19 | Braves v. Nationals -139 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
956 Atlanta at Washington Keuchel & Strasburg Finally the day has come where Dallas Keuchel gets a major league start this season. You know after all this time he will be extra fired up to take the mound. But that works against him as he likely will try to do more than usual, which results in loss of control. With a strikeout pitcher he may overcome, but not a junk ball pitcher like Keuchel. Strasburg is coming off his worst start of the season, a 29 game score. But he has been excellent after a 50 or lower start this season. His game score in those contests were 76, 52 and 67. Washington has won the last four meetings, this home team is a bargain. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-17-19 | Rays +125 v. Yankees | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
961 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees Chirinos & Tanaka Six of the last ten meetings in this series have been won by the road team. The Yankees have a half game lead on the Rays in the division, yet the close game luck has all been on the New York side. The Yankees are a combined 12-10 in one run and extra inning games, while the Rays are 7-13 in those contests. Over the last seven starts Chirinos has an average game score of 60, while Tanaka is at 56. Yonny has been even better on the road than at home. Our numbers suggest nice value here on the road underdog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -147 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -147 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
910 San Diego at Colorado Margevicius & Lambert Nick Margevicius is a soft throwing lefty that has only produced 18 strikeouts in his last seven starts. The last thing you want pitching in Coors Field is a guy without the ability to throw strikeouts. In two starts against the Rockies this year he has a 35 game score, allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings of work. The Padres have never faced Peter Lambert who has a 66 game score average after his first two starts. Both of those starts came against a solid Cubs offense, once at home and once away. Colorado has beaten the Padres 6 of 8 games this season, and 29 of 46 the past three seasons. Lay it with the favorite. PLAY COLORADO |
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06-11-19 | Diamondbacks +124 v. Phillies | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
951 Arizona at Philadelphia Duplantier & Arrieta Big fan of the young Jon Duplantier who has pitched very well despite being called upon to fill different roles for the Diamondbacks this year. In his two starts he is averaging a game score of 52 which is higher than league average. Jake Arrieta on the other hand has a 46 game score average his past seven starts. His last two starts resulted in allowing 10 earned runs in only 9.2 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio in those contests was 6 to 6. Over the past three seasons Arizona has posted a combined 11-3 record in this series. Nice payoff on the underdog here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-09-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
960 St Louis at Chicago Cubs Wainwright & Hendricks Our numbers show Hendricks with a 23% starting pitcher advantage. The Cards are 11-18 on the road and Chicago is 23-11 at home. Hendricks has an average game score of 68 his last seven starts, as opposed to Wainwright with a 51 over that same time frame. Hendricks at home has produced game scores of 56, 77, 82 and 80 his last four starts at Wrigley. Over the last three seasons the Cubs have won 28 of the 46 games in this series. The home team has won nine straight in this series. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-08-19 | Rockies v. Mets -115 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
912 Colorado at NY Mets Gray & Matz Steven Matz has been at his best pitching in Citi Field this season. His game scores have been 53, 63, 66 and 67. Overall his last seven starts outrank Jon Gray 53 to 49. Matz is also coming off a poor performance on the road at Arizona where he permitted five earned runs in only six innings of work. We back the slight home favorite here. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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06-08-19 | White Sox -129 v. Royals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
917 Chicago WS at Kansas City Giolito & Keller Lucas Giolito was a top minor league pitching prospect for years. But injuries and lack of control always kept him as a fringe 4A player. But he has burst on to the scene in a big way this season. In his last seven starts he has a 70 average game score. His last three starts were 77, 73 and 87. His strikeout to walk ratio in those three games was a combined 28 to 2. Needless to say Giolito has arrived. And because of his poor career until this point his numbers are still at a bargain price. Brad Keller by comparison is at 44 his last seven starts, league average is about 50. Keller’s last two home outings were game scores of 34 and 33. The Royals are 15-31 at home vs right handed starters. We look for the Royals bats to be in hibernation. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-04-19 | A's v. Angels -110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
926 Oakland at Los Angels Angeles Montas & Canning Big offensive edge here of 18% for the host, along with a 9% starting pitching edge. Canning has a 34 to 9 SO to W ratio his last seven starts, but that includes the 6 to 4 ratio at Baltimore on May 5th. His game score through those seven games averaged 58. We like Frankie Montas but he has been extremely lucky in the home run department. Amazingly he has gone eight straight starts without allowing a home run. We rate the Angels offense 17% higher than league average at home against righties. Nice price on the home team. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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06-01-19 | Astros -148 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
973 Houston at Oakland Verlander & Anderson We’ve been looking at a great spot to fade Brett Anderson, and we get the chance tonight. His advanced stats show he’s due for major regression, and he’s really struggled against this Houston offense. In the last two seasons he has permitted 12 earned runs in only 5.2 innings against the Astros. Houston is 29-15 against Oakland in the past three seasons. Justin Verlander has posted a dominating 72 game score in his last seven starts, with a 57 to 8 SO to W rate. Late it with the Astros. PLAY HOUSTON -148 |
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05-30-19 | Giants v. Marlins -101 | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
954 San Francisco at Miami Beede & Alcantara San Francisco has lost seven straight games. In its last ten contests the Giants have scored four runs or less every game. As bad as the Marlins have been the past three seasons it still owns a combined 11-4 record against these Giants. Tyler Beede has a 31 average game score in three major league starts. Over his last seven games Sandy Alcantara has a 48 game score average. The Giants are an amazing 16-6 combined in one run and extra inning games. This team has only won 21 games on the season, and have been extremely fortunate in close games. That’s a regression stat waiting to happen. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-29-19 | Tigers v. Orioles -117 | 4-2 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
918 Detroit at Baltimore Carpenter & Means Large starting pitcher advantage for the Orioles here as Means rates 16% higher than Carpenter. In fact, the Tigers lefty rates 13% worse than an average MLB starter. John Means has been terrific pitching at home with his latest game scores being 61, 71 & 60. That included facing the hitters of the Angels and Red Sox. When comparing the last seven starts from each of these pitchers Means has a 54 game score average, while Carpenter is at 37. Ryan Carpenter is coming in off his best start of the season, at the Mets with a game score of 62. But that was by far the best start of his career, as 51 was his previous high. We look for regression from the Detroit lefty here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-26-19 | Phillies +156 v. Brewers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
955 Philadelphia at Milwaukee Eflin & Woodruff Over the last three seasons these two teams have split the 18 games played, including 3-3 so far this year. Eflin & Woodruff faced off just 12 days ago with the Brewers winning 6-1. While Woodruff out-pitched Eflin in that game, the differential wasn’t as drastic as the final score. Woodruff had a 5 to 5 strikeout to walk outing, while Eflin’s was 7 to 2. In fact, career wise in this series Eflin has a 22 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio, while Woodruff is 8 to 7. Small sample size shows Woodruff to dominate this team, but the advanced stats don’t stand up. Our numbers have the Brewers starter only 3% better than the young Philadelphia righty. We also like the Phillies 5% offensive advantage. Our numbers say there is no way the Brewers should be a favorite of this size, we take advantage with a solid underdog play. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-25-19 | Rays +124 v. Indians | Top | 6-2 | Win | 124 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
919 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Morton & Carrasco The Rays have a 29-19 record on the season despite being very unlucky. Tampa is a combined 4-12 in one run and extra inning games. Very strange considering the back of this bullpen is very talented. Morton is coming off his worst start of the season with a 40 game score at the Yankees. His prior road games this season resulted in game scores of 71, 68, 69, 53 and 57. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of about one full run higher than the last two seasons. His velocity is down and he has been very inconsistent. His last two starts against the Rays resulted in eight earned runs in 15 innings. The Rays are the better team with a comparable starter as an underdog. Sign us up. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-24-19 | Rays -129 v. Indians | 1-3 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
963 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Snell & Bieber Two major regression candidates on the mound today. Snell has been unlucky when looking at the advanced stats, while Bieber has been very fortunate. Believe it or not Blake Snell has been terrific this year when not facing…..the Kansas City Royals. In two starts against them he has game scores of 41 and 18. On the road when not seeing the Royals he has numbers of 67, 78 and 64. Shane Bieber is coming off the best start of his career. A complete game shutout of the Orioles with 15 strikeouts. In the previous five starts he permitted 17 earned runs in 28.2 innings of work. His two year history shows he pitches much better on the road than at Progressive Field. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-24-19 | Marlins +125 v. Nationals | 10-12 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
953 Miami at Washington Lopez & McGowin Don’t look now but the Marlins are only 1 1/2 games behind the Nationals in the division. The Fish have won six straight games as Washington continues to flounder. (Pun intended). Lopez rates 13% higher than McGowin and Miami is playing with a confidence we haven’t seen out of this team in years. The Nationals bullpen should get a lot of time in this one, and that’s a good outcome for the Marlins. Washington’s bullpen has been horrendous all season. Nice price with a live dog here. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-22-19 | Red Sox -153 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
969 Boston at Toronto Porcello & Sanchez The Red Sox have simply dominated the Blue Jays the last three seasons winning 30 of 42 games. Rick Porcello struggled the start the season but has been extremely good his last six starts with game scores of 59, 52, 61, 64, 51 and 53. During that time he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 33 to 7. We have him rated 35% better than Aaron Sanchez. The Red Sox also own a 10% better defense in this contest. We look for the Sox to bounce back from a rare loss to the Jays yesterday. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-22-19 | Reds -103 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
951 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Castillo & Davies Not that Yellich and Braun have been declared out for the Brewers, it’s time to back the much better starter in this one. We rate Castillo a whopping 34% higher that Davies, who is due for some regression. The Reds are only 9-17 in one run games and extra innings, while the Brewers are 11-6. That means regression favors our club. The last three road games for Castillo showed game scores of 74, 60 and 68. Cheap price for the Reds here in this early contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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05-21-19 | Rockies -120 v. Pirates | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
903 Colorado at Pittsburgh Marquez & Archer The Rockies own every key edge here except home field advantage. We rate Marquez 13% higher than Archer, and some of that has to do with Chris Archer’s past, as he has not pitched nearly as well since the trade to Pittsburgh. The Rockies have won 3 of 4 in Pittsburgh and Marquez has a 60 game score in his last five contests against the Pirates. Colorado took money overnight for good reason, but the line is still much lower than what we made it. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-20-19 | Phillies +114 v. Cubs | 5-4 | Win | 114 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
953 Philadelphia at Chicago Arrieta & Darvish The Phillies are 6-7 in one run and extra inning games, while the Cubs are 11-6. So we should see some regression in Philadelphia’s favor. Over the last seven starts these two have almost identical game scores of 51 for Arrieta & 52 for Darvish. Arrieta has a better strikeout to walk ratio, but You is off an 11 to 0 game. So how much do we trust that Darvish is back off that solid performance? While Darvish does rate 8% better by our pitching numbers, he’s still being priced as the Darvish of old. He’s battled injuries the past few years going back to his time in Texas. He pitched much of his last season there hurt, and he didn’t let management know. While we admire his pride, he just hasn’t been the same pitcher since. Our numbers give the Phillies an 11% offensive advantage here which is enough for us to back the road squad. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-18-19 | Orioles +137 v. Indians | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
971 Baltimore at Cleveland Means & Plutko We had a nice payoff on the Orioles yesterday, and today we get their best starter on the mound. Means owns a 55 game score his last seven starts. Posting a 2.61 ERA in the process. He has never faced the Tribe. Plutko is making his first start of the year, and owns a 47 game score and 5.77 ERA in his previous seven starts. In 80.1 big league innings he has permitted 22 home runs. It’s rare when you get a starting pitcher in this price range that has a 24% advantage over the opposition. We will once again fade the high priced Indians who are simply not the same team as recent seasons. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-17-19 | Orioles +155 v. Indians | 5-1 | Win | 155 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
917 Baltimore at Cleveland Bundy & Rodriguez Much prefer the Orioles on the road when catching a higher return. Despite the season numbers we grade Bundy 6% higher than Rodriguez. Dylan Bundy is taking a major step down in offensive competition here after facing the Angels, Rays twice, Twins twice, A’s and Yankees his last seven starts. Jefry Rodriguez has had a good start to the season but keep in mind he has faced the A’s, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Nice value here on the road dog. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-17-19 | Astros -130 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
921 Houston at Boston Cole & Porcello Playoff revenge for the Astros who lost the American League Championship to these Red Sox. This is the first meeting of the season for these two. Boston is the better fielding team and the offenses grade out even, but pitching is all Houston. We rate Cole 17% higher than Porcello, and the bullpen rates a 16% advantage. We don’t use motivation as much of a factor in baseball, but the Astros have talked about how poorly they played against Boston all off season. Keep in mind Houston won the regular season series each of the past two years. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-15-19 | Rockies +139 v. Red Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
925 Colorado at Boston Marquez & Rodriguez Marquez on the road has produced game scores of 68, 75, 94 and 55. Our numbers rate him 16% better than Rodriguez. The Rockies actually match up very well here as they hit 5% better than league average on the road vs lefties. Our line has this game much closer to a coin flip, so we will gladly take the plus money with the Rockies. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-14-19 | Brewers v. Phillies +110 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
954 Milwaukee at Philadelphia Woodruff & Eickhoff The Phillies have a solid 12% advantage offensively, along with a 5% bullpen edge. The Brewers are 24-19 on the season but have been lucky in one run and extra inning games with a combined 9-4 record. The Phillies are 4-7 in that category. Woodruff has a game score of 52 on the season, Eickhoff is 65.5 and that includes a low of 46 at Colorado. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-13-19 | Angels +137 v. Twins | 5-4 | Win | 137 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
909 Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins Skaggs & Berrios The Angels show a 21% offensive edge here, while the Twins have the better pitching and defense. Minnesota will likely be without its DH tonight as Nelson Cruz is dealing with a wrist problem. Tyler Skaggs has been good but he’s off his worst start of the season. We expect a bounce back from the Angels lefty. While the records say the Twins are the better team, keep in mind that regression is in order. Minnesota is 7-3 combined in 1 run and extra inning games, while the Angels are 2-8 in those type of contests. We are getting good value here against one of the hottest pitchers in the majors. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-11-19 | Yankees +138 v. Rays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
925 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Sabathia & Stanek The advanced stat community has been looking to fade CC the past two years with little success. He doesn’t have the ability to dominate like he did in his early career, but he has learned to be a better pitcher as opposed to a thrower. Because of that we are seeing more value on him as of late. Our numbers have this as more of a toss up game, while the market shows the Rays with a 60% chance for victory. We gladly take the plus money on what we view as an equal contest. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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05-11-19 | Tigers v. Twins -156 | 5-3 | Loss | -156 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
918 Detroit at Minnesota Turnbull & Pineda Spencer Turnbull is getting a great deal of credit in this line, but we still rate him 3% worse than an average MLB starter. The concerns about the Tiger offense continue, as the team was shut out again yesterday. The numbers said Tigers yesterday, but the team was uncompetitive. Can’t see them giving a better effort here in the first game of the doubleheader. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-10-19 | Nationals +190 v. Dodgers | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
961 Washington at Los Angeles Sanchez & Maeda This line has been hit upwards since the opener, but we feel it’s now at a value point in taking the Nationals. Yes, Washington has been a major disappointment this season, but keep in mind the talent level on this team. No way, with this pitching matchup, should the Dodgers be this size a favorite tonight. The Nationals won yesterday, no reason to think they can’t win again tonight, especially at this price. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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05-10-19 | Phillies -140 v. Royals | 1-5 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
979 Philadelphia at Kansas City Arrieta & Bailey The only advantage the Royals have in this contest is a 6% defensive advantage. The Phillies own a whopping 29% offensive edge, 10% bullpen advantage and 14% starting pitcher strength. Homer Bailey has solid numbers against the Phillies, but he has only faced them once since 2014. Very reasonable price for the much better ball club. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-10-19 | Tigers +210 v. Twins | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
973 Detroit at Minnesota Ross & Odorizzi This is what we call a spite play. Tyson Ross is still trying to get back to where he was earlier in his career, and he’s had a tough time doing it. Minnesota has been a red hot squad that is making believers out of a lot of pundits. But when was the last time a Jake Odorizzi start had a number in this price range? He is 51-50 with a FIP of 4.18 for his career. He’s off to a great start with a 2.78 ERA on the season. But what do you believe, 168 career starts or 7 starts in 2019? Plenty of value on the Tigers here as the Twins having been more than a -202 favorite this season, and that was on opening day. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-09-19 | Mariners +153 v. Yankees | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
915 Seattle at NY Yankees Leake & Happ The Yankees hold the edges in pitching and defense, along with fielding. But not in hitting as the Mariners continue to rake against just about everyone. We’ve faded Seattle in the past but this number is just too high to ignore the Mariners in this one. Taking the clear value here on Seattle. PLAY SEATTLE |
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05-08-19 | Angels +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
971 LA Angels at Detroit Skaggs & Boyd Big fans of both these pitchers but we are fading the line move here. LA opened as the favorite, but the Tigers have taken money overnight. Our numbers make LA a -134 favorite in this contest. Offense is the main reason as the Tigers continue to struggle at the plate. Against lefties the Angels rate 17% better than the Tigers offensively. Detroit has overachieved this season, and continue to be overpriced. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-07-19 | Angels -124 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
921 LA Angels at Detroit Canning & Norris Griffin Canning has just one start under his belt but he already rates as one of the top Angels starters. We take advantage of this number now before the betting public knows more about him. Huge offensive discrepancy here as LA rakes and the Tigers continue to struggle with the bats. Lay the short number here with the much more complete team in this matchup. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-07-19 | Twins -150 v. Blue Jays | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
919 Minnesota at Toronto Berrios & Sanchez Really starting to believe in this Minnesota squad. Berrios is having a breakout year and rates 36% higher than Sanchez. With a weak pitcher on the mound we are looking for a big offensive game from the Twins. Our numbers still have Sanchez 26% worse than an average MLB starter. This is a good hitting environment. Major mismatch is a reasonably priced game. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-05-19 | Braves v. Marlins +118 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
902 Atlanta at Miami Teheran & Lopez Three of our top four gradings in this contest favor the home underdog. We have Lopez rated 14% higher than Teheran. The Braves advantage is obviously offensively, but only by 11%. We are showing a very solid 10% overall edge for the underdog. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-05-19 | Mariners v. Indians -135 | 10-0 | Loss | -135 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
920 Seattle at Cleveland Swanson & Anderson This line has steadily climbed overnight and we understand why. We make Cleveland a -164 favorite here. The Indians bullpen and defense are the main reasons, as both starters grade out lower than league average. The Indians continue to find ways to win with a banged up team, let’s expect another victory from the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-04-19 | Dodgers v. Padres +115 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
964 LA Dodgers at San Diego Hill & Lucchesi Wrong team favored by our numbers which is a rarity in the case of the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the most talented team in baseball, and yet they are misplaced in this one. We rate Lucchesi 14% better than Hill, and the bullpens are virtually equal. Keep in mind both closers pitched yesterday, throwing 19 and 21 pitches. Therefore neither may be available tonight. We have this lined as a pick ‘em, so value is on the home dog. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-04-19 | Royals +111 v. Tigers | 15-3 | Win | 111 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
969 Kansas City at Detroit Bailey & Ross Two of the worst starters in our database go at it in Detroit today. But instead of jumping on the over, we will back the underdog. These teams are so close talent wise that the biggest advantage in the game is the KC defense which is 4% better than that of the host. Going down every key stat we use shows these two clubs being completely equal on Saturday. That puts us squarely on the plus money Royals, on what we grade out as a coin flip. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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05-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees -129 | 7-3 | Loss | -129 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
966 Minnesota at NY Yankees Odorizzi & Happ The Yankees have owned the Twins at home for years, and it was even mentioned on the Twins broadcast of yesterdays game. It’s in the heads of the Minnesota players, and that’s a huge advantage for the host. Our numbers are showing a whopping 8% overall advantage for the Yankees today, as defense is the only edge the Twins own. This number should be much higher. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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05-03-19 | Mets +123 v. Brewers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
909 NY Mets at Milwaukee Matz & Woodruff This could very well be a low scoring affair as Hader didn’t have to work yesterday, and the Mets got a complete game from Thor. But we can’t pass up the Mets getting plus money in a game we grade out as very close to a coin toss. New York has the better bullpen overall, but Milwaukee is the better defensive team. Other than that both teams are virtually equal in offense and starting pitching. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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05-03-19 | Blue Jays +145 v. Rangers | 1-0 | Win | 145 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
923 Toronto at Texas Thornton & Minor Despite all the talk about this Texas offense, much of that success comes from the ballpark the team plays in. In fact, our numbers rate Toronto 9% higher than that of the Rangers. Mike Minor is rebounding nicely from a major injury, but we also like young Trent Thornton on the mound. Texas is the better fielding team, but that’s not nearly enough to explain this very high line. We are showing 7.5% value on the Blue Jays in this one. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-03-19 | Giants +139 v. Reds | 12-11 | Win | 139 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
907 San Francisco at Cincinnati Beede & Gray While we grade out Gray to have a 7% edge over Beede, the other pitching and defensive numbers favor the road underdog. Especially the Giants bullpen which is a full 16% better than that of the Reds. Unlike other cappers who only rate offense and starting pitching, we are able to gain edges by focusing on areas that are important, but not in the mainstream. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-03-19 | Cardinals -105 v. Cubs | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
901 St Louis at Chicago Flaherty & Hendricks We are showing a solid 5.5% advantage with the Cardinals here. Two very good starters but we rate Flaherty 7% higher than Hendricks. The bullpens and defense are virtually equal, but the Cards own a healthy 9% offensive advantage. It all adds up to a nice start to a strong card on baseball on Friday. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals +149 v. Nationals | 5-1 | Win | 149 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
901 St Louis at Washington Mikolas & Scherzer Despite the excellent Max Scherzer on the mound it’s tough laying a sizable number with these Nationals. For the second straight season this team has been a money burner, as it just isn’t playing up to its talent level. Washington is 12-16 on the year despite playing 16 of 28 games at home. The Cardinals own a +34 run differential with the Nationals. Washington is just 6-10 while playing in this building. So despite the starting pitcher advantage we find value on taking the road underdog. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-30-19 | Padres -105 v. Braves | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
955 San Diego at Atlanta Paddock & Teheran The Braves have a 6% hitting advantage in this contest, but San Diego owns all the other key stats. A major advantage for the Padres is on the mound as San Diego has a 24% pitching edge in this contest. The Padres are also the better defensive team. Paddock came into this season with a great deal of hype, and he’s lived up to it very well. Robbie Erlin saved the Pads bullpen yesterday throwing 38 pitches. Therefore the entire back of the bullpen arsenal is fully rested tonight. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-28-19 | Padres -110 v. Nationals | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
957 San Diego at Washington Lucchesi & Hellickson The Nationals are picking up just where they left off last year, as one of if not the most disappointing teams in the league. The bullpen continues to be bad, and the offense isn’t anything beyond average. The Padres have a large 24% starting pitching edge here, and the San Diego bullpen is far superior. The opening line was a bad one and we follow the money on this one. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-27-19 | Reds +120 v. Cardinals | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
901 Cincinnati at St Louis Mahle & Hudson We’ve made it a habit of going against the young Cardinals lefty. While he has the talent he’s not shown it at this level as of yet. Because he’s highly thought of we continue to take advantage of the overlay price. Tyler Mahle is a journeyman, but he is not considered a hot shot prospect, which plays in our favor. We are showing a nice 4% advantage on the road dog here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-26-19 | Rangers +147 v. Mariners | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
977 Texas at Seattle Miller & Kikuchi Have no idea why this line opened so high. It’s trending down but still has a way to go. Our numbers show a 5% edge with the Rangers here. The key stats are even between these two with the biggest edge being a 10% offensive advantage for the host. This line shows a nice advantage on the dog. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-26-19 | Angels -112 v. Royals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
975 Los Angeles at Kansas City Skaggs & Duffy Two starters coming off the DL, but only one has been effective in the last few seasons. We rate Skaggs 13% better than Duffy who is making his first start of the season. The Angels have a huge 21% offensive advantage as KC hits lefties 7% worse than average at home. Kansas City has the defensive edge, but every other key stat backs the visitor. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-26-19 | Tigers +119 v. White Sox | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
971 Detroit at Chicago Norris & Rodon Neither team hits lefties very well, but we rate the Tigers southpaw 11% better. In fact, other than starting pitching these two teams grade out virtually equal. So why are the White Sox favored? They shouldn’t be as we make the Tigers -114. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-26-19 | Rockies +158 v. Braves | 8-4 | Win | 158 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
957 Colorado at Atlanta Senzatela & Fried Max Fried is getting a whole lot of respect off a small sample size. We only have him 6% better than Senzatela, and this line is saying he’s much better than that. While Atlanta holds slight edges across the board, the numbers just don’t add up to a number this high. This number should be -136, not where it is right now. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-25-19 | Indians v. Astros -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
912 Cleveland at Houston Bauer & Cole Not only have these two teams been playoff rivals as of late, but there is bad blood because of Trevor Bauer. He has been very vocal about how he thinks the Astros pitchers are cheating. Using a foreign substance to get more spin on the ball. The Astros players, especially Bergman have called him out in the press. This has gone on for some time now, so I’m sure this game will have a playoff feel. From a handicapping perspective the big advantage for the host is offensively, with a 21% edge. Cleveland has the much better defense, while the combination of Cole and the Astros bullpen gives them a 25% pitching advantage. While we love Trevor Bauer and his intensity, the Astros are at a very cheap price. We made this line -178. Plenty of value on the host. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-24-19 | Mariners v. Padres -164 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at San Diego Hernandez & Paddack Here we have a young starter we want to back, against an old starter who is still trying to hold on. Our numbers give the San Diego pitching a whopping 40% advantage in this contest. And Seattle hasn’t hit nearly as well on the road as they have at home. The Padres own all the edges here and this line should be closer to a 2 to 1 favorite. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-24-19 | Marlins v. Indians -151 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
976 Miami at Cleveland Alcantara & Rodriguez The Tribe owns every key statistic In this Interleague contest. It’s a rare occasion that Cleveland has a double digit offensive advantage. The Tribe also has a 26% pitching edge. We talked earlier in the season on backing the Marlins as a home dog, but fading them on the road. We made this line much higher, so plenty of value to do so here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-23-19 | Dodgers +100 v. Cubs | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
909 Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Maeda & Quintana The Dodgers are the most talented team in the National League, and have the deepest starting pitching staff in baseball. The Cubs are quite the opposite as the starting rotation is getting old, with no Major League ready prospects in the high minors. The Dodgers own every key stat in this contest, from offense, defense and overall pitching. The opening line last night was a complete mistake and was bet into very quickly. It’s still not where it should be as we have the Dodgers as clear favorites in this one. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-23-19 | White Sox -133 v. Orioles | 1-9 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Nova & Cashner As with yesterday the Sox own advantages across the board in this one. Pitching along gives Chicago at combined 33% advantage. We spoke yesterday about the Orioles success on the road but complete failure at home. It’s hard to think of any team right now that has a worse home field advantage. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-22-19 | Phillies v. Mets -110 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
954 Philadelphia at NY Mets Arrieta & Matz Cheap line on the host here as we grade Matz 10% higher than Jake Arrieta. Philadelphia only hits lefties 2% better than league average. A major drawback for the Phillies here is coming off a series in Colorado. Coors Field is so different than other parks in the league, it does take some time to adjust to when leaving. We take advantage of that tonight. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-22-19 | White Sox -121 v. Orioles | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Banuelos & Hess Manny Banuelos was once one of the highest rated prospects in the Yankees minor leagues. He was originally a starter but has worked out of the bullpen for the past few seasons. We rate him 15% higher than David Hess of the Orioles. In fact, our numbers have the Sox with every key advantage in this contest. Baltimore has been a big money maker on the road this year, but burn the cash at home. We look for more of the same here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-21-19 | Reds v. Padres -142 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
914 Cincinnati at San Diego Mahle & Lucchesi Big starter mismatch for the Padres here with a 31% advantage for the host. The bullpen is also huge for the Padres. The negative for San Diego is getting off to slow starts. This is a team that continues to struggle through the first five, and finds a way to take the lead behind this excellent bullpen. While we like the Padres in the game, if San Diego starts slowly we can get a great number in live wagering. Keep an eye out for that as we may get the opportunity to hit these Padres twice on Sunday. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-21-19 | Mets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
907 New York Mets at St Louis Syndergaard & Hudson We went against young Cards starter Dakota Hudson last time out, and we find another favorable matchup to oppose him here. Syndergaard rates 47% better by our starter numbers, and the bullpen for the Mets grades out much stronger. The line has moved towards the Mets overnight, but not nearly enough. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-20-19 | Mariners v. Angels -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels Kikuchi & Cahill There isn’t a lot of data points on the Mariners lefty as of late, but most experts feel Yusei can be a top of the rotation starter. That said, we are not sure he’s at that area right now. But yet he’s being priced that way in the marketplace. We have the Angels being better in every major category in this one, yet the line is very favorable. We will take advantage. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-20-19 | Dodgers -125 v. Brewers | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
959 Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Ryu & Anderson Major pitching mismatch here as we rate Ryu 32% better than Chase Anderson. Along with the better bullpen and overall offense, this is a cheap price for Los Angeles. The Brewers biggest edge in any game is when Josh Hader takes the mound. But he threw 34 pitches yesterday and will not be available today. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-19-19 | Blue Jays +118 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
927 Toronto at Oakland Stroman & Brooks Is it possible that Marcus Stroman is back? He’s looked much better this season and his advanced numbers back up his results on the mound. Aaron Brooks is a fringe starter and rates 24% below league average. The Oakland bats were on fire earlier, but we rate these two offenses equal at this point of the season. This contest should be a coin flip based on our numbers with the host having a slight advantage playing in this building. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-19-19 | Royals +158 v. Yankees | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
917 Kansas City at NY Yankees Junis & Sabathia CC sure is getting a great deal of respect in his second game coming off the DL. There may have been value on him then, but certainly not now in this price range. The Royals won yesterday so everyone thinks there is no way the Yanks lose two in a row at home against the lowly Royals. But we obviously disagree. We rate Junis 15% better than Sabathia, and the depleted Yankees bats are only 11& better than those of the Royals. This line should be much lower based on players stats, as opposed to names on the jerseys. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers -101 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
961 Chicago at Detroit Nova & Ross Slight movement overnight towards the visitor, but not enough in our opinion. We rate Nova 18% better than Tyson Ross. Detroit has slight edges in fielding an offense, but not nearly enough to make up the starting pitcher advantage for the Sox. The bullpens are rated as equal, so no advantage either way. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-17-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -133 | 6-3 | Loss | -133 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
904 St Louis at Milwaukee Wacha & Burnes Decent sized pitching edge for the Brewers here as we rate Milwaukee with a 24% advantage with the starters and the bullpen. With Josh Hader taking yesterday off, he’s available for multiple innings if called on today. Wacha still working his way back from injury, which means this struggling Cardinal bullpen will likely be called on early. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-16-19 | Indians -114 v. Mariners | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
977 Cleveland at Seattle Bieber & Leake You are looking at the current ace of the Indians. The Tribe is having major starting pitching problems as Clevenger is injured, and both Kluber and Carrasco are dealing with low velocity issues. While Seattle owns a sizable 17% offensive edge, the pitching advantage for the Indians overwhelms it. Seattle was very fortunate early on with an amazing average with runners in scoring position. That regressed against the pitching of the Astros, and we see it continuing to regress against Bieber. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-16-19 | Astros -156 v. A's | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
975 Houston at Oakland McHugh & Estrada The A’s are the better fielding team here, but all other advanced stats point towards the Astros. A 16% offensive advantage, a 14% bullpen edge, and a whopping 38% starting pitcher advantage for the visitor. We previously pointed out the Estrada signing being a good one for this division, but he is simply outclassed here against these Houston bats. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-16-19 | Orioles +220 v. Rays | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Bundy & Glasnow Probably our most contrarian play of the season. Right now Tampa looks like a major playoff contender, while the Orioles look to be one of the worst teams in the league. But the money line is the big equalizer, and the Rays are simply overpriced here. We are seeing lines in the 240-250 range and we only make this line 208. Unlike sports like the NFL & NBA, baseball teams typically win between 60 and 100 games each season. This line is basically saying the Rays have a 70% or better chance to win this contest. That’s roughly a 115 win team. While we like the Rays on the season, this number is worth a wager on the Orioles. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-15-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -131 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
906 St Louis at Milwaukee Hudson & Peralta Cheap line in our opinion as we rate Freddy 26% better than the young Dakota Hudson. While we like the future of the Cardinals lefty, he’s not yet where this game has him lined. Other than a 3% offensive advantage for St Louis, the Brewers own every other key category we value. We grade the Cardinals bullpen 7% worse than league average, so that could be a big factor in this contest. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-15-19 | Cubs v. Marlins +126 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at Miami Darvish & Richards Nice opportunity to go against the struggling Yu Darvish at a plus money price. When the Rangers traded Yu to the Cubs it was clear at the time he was injured, yet Chicago continued to send him to the mound. In turn, he missed a great deal of time after surgery. The team expected him to be his old self this season but he’s still struggling badly, with control being the major problem. Trevor Richards is one of the starters we are looking to back this year. His advanced stats are on the incline, and yet he’s never talked about in baseball circles. Nice chance to back him here at a plus price against the overrated Cubs. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -139 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
962 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers Chacin & Stripling We are taking a long range look at the Dodgers here who have lost six straight games. The truth is that this is likely the most talented and deep team in Major League baseball. Playing at home with a starting pitcher advantage of 37%. Los Angeles owns a 13% offensive edge, and the bullpen is currently much deeper than the Brewers. The line is low because the public doesn’t want to lay a price with a team on a losing streak. We scream SMALL SAMPLE SIZE and take the value on the host. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
960 San Diego at Arizona Lauer & Greinke At the beginning of every season the fans go crazy about the demise of Zack Greinke. Complaints about his lack of velocity and slow starts are common. But he always looks bad in Spring Training and as the season goes on he becomes the solid starter we expected. This line is based on those same old stories. We have Greinke rated 35% better than Lauer, which is not what this line is saying. It’s rare we get such a starting pitcher mismatch in this price range. We’ll jump on the home team before the expensive Zack numbers show in future starts. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-14-19 | Phillies v. Marlins +153 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
952 Philadelphia at Miami Velasquez & Urena Value on the home dog Marlins here who play much better at home than on the road. The Fish pounded the Phillies last night and we like their chances again on Sunday. While the best edge for the host is defensively, this line is simply too high on the visitor. Baseball betting is all about the numbers, and while Philadelphia should be favored, this number is way too high. Value play on the dog. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-13-19 | Pirates v. Nationals -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
902 Pittsburgh at Washington Archer & Sanchez Intense battle yesterday as both teams used key bullpen pieces in the Pirates road victory. We do have Archer rated a full 9% better than Sanchez, but we still like Anibal as we have him graded 9% better than league average. Other than the starter edge for Pittsburgh, Washington owns all other key numbers in this matchup. We look for the host to even the series this afternoon. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-12-19 | Brewers +135 v. Dodgers | 8-5 | Win | 135 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
959 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers Burnes & Urias Plenty of underdog value here on the Brewers, as the Dodgers return home after struggling in St Louis. Milwaukee had yesterday off after playing cross town against the Angels. While LA has a 13% offensive edge here, the Brewers own a slight advantage in all the other key categories. We rate this game much closer than the current price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-12-19 | Indians -149 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
973 Cleveland at Kansas City Carrasco & Keller Bargain price for the Tribe who has advantages across the board. Cleveland dominated divisional rivals last year and have owned the Royals for the past few seasons. Cleveland has a huge 64% pitching edge in this contest including the starter and bullpen. Neither team has hit well thus far, and it’s very doubtful the Royals can break out against this Cleveland pitching staff. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-12-19 | Mets +100 v. Braves | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
955 NY Mets at Atlanta Wheeler & Wright Zach Wheeler had a breakout season a year ago and he’s even better thus far this season. We rate him a full 22% better than his young counterpart on the mound tonight. New York also has a clear bullpen advantage, which hasn’t been said very often the past few years in New York. With the offenses rating evenly the Mets should clearly be favored here by much more than the current number. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-10-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -153 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
958 Washington at Philadelphia Hellickson & Pivetta The Nationals have the better fielding team, as the Phillies are 4% worse than league average. But that’s the only edge for the visitor in this matchup. We especially show a huge margin on the mound as Pivetta rates a huge 30% better than Hellickson. With Doolittle not available after throwing 22 pitches last night in the Nationals 10-6 comeback win, we like the cheap number on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |